Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 8/3/26: Trump Backs Down On Iran Strikes, US Forced Out Of Iraq, Munitions Run Low Amid War

Transcript

8/3/26: Trump Backs Down On Iran Strikes, US Forced Out Of Iraq, Munitions Run Low Amid War · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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  Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday. I have an amazing show
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: for buddy today. What do we have, Crystal?
• 0:38
  Speaker 4: Indeed we do.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: The Taco cycle continues on Iran. Trump backs down after
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: making a series of extraordinary threats.
• 0:46
  Speaker 4: Stop me if you've heard this one before.
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: We'll break down the very latest here. Meanwhile, Top brass
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: in military warning that we can choose. We can either
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: protect Israel or we can protect the homeland. So that
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: seems great. This comes as US four versus are withdrawing
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: from a rock and a series of warnings have gone
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: out to embassies across the region. Connerson Max Miller is
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: under fire for domestic abuse allegations. We've got some new
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: details there and a wild video that he released doubling
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: down and trying to defend himself. It appears that the
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: US and Israel may have been behind a hybrid war
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: up against Spain, possibly looking likely.
• 1:24
  Speaker 4: We'll show you all the evidence.
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: Van David Rojas is going to join us to break
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: down what happened in Seyouta with this migrant quote unquote invasion. Meanwhile,
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  Speaker 2: New York is suing Calshi for the right to control
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  Speaker 3: But as Crystal said, let's go ahead and begin with
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: Taco Sunday of what we saw. Let's put a one
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: up here on the screen.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Trump.
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: The USA is locked and loaded, ready to go against
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: the Islamic Republic of Iran at levels of military terror,
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: strength and power not.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Seen since World War Two.
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: Despite this, we have just been asked by Iran and
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: other Middle Eastern countries to hold off any attack in
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: that the parameters of a deal has been agreed to.
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: This would include the immediate, complete and total opening of
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: the Horne moves straight and an end to Iran's nuclear threat.
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: On this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: of the world and likewise the survival of a successful
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack subject to being
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: able to rapidly make a deal. The country of Israel
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: joins me in this commitment. Get to work, everybody, get
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: it done. Thank you for your attention to this matter,
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: President Donald J.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Trump.
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: So this comes on the heels of some leakage that
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: came out of the White House. What we can now
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: very clearly see was an op President Trump met on
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: Friday with his entire cabinet in which he convened a
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: big meeting about Iran. And in that meeting, what immediately
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: came out and leaks to Axio, CBS News and otherwise
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: was the US was planning a massive attack on Iran's
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: energy infrastructure in conjunction with the nation of Israel. Now,
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: immediately many people said, well, you know, if you were
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: going to do a big attack, which you necessarily leak
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: it in the first place, many speculated that it was
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: indeed an opening and a threat to try and get
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: Iran to capitulate. However, Iran did not capitulate, that they
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: did not come to the table, no deal actually was reached,
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: and when push came to shove, Trump ultimately just decided
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: to cancel it because of the dire warnings from his
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: own military. And we know this because Iran has released
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: this let's put it up here on the screen. They
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: say the plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is false.
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: A source close to the nuclear negotiation team this is
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: from Iranian state media told far As Media there is
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: no agreement regarding the reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
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  Speaker 1: The news published about it is false.
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: Furthermore, a military source emphasized, as long as the United
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: States continues as hostile actions, the Strait of hormuves remains closed.
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: The passes of ships will only be possible through the
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: designated route and with permission from the Navy of the
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Hours ago, some media outlets affiliated
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: with the enemy claimed Iran had agreed to reopening the
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: Strait of Hormuz, a plan which ships would enter the
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: Persian Gulf through the Iranian territorial waters and exit through
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: Omani territorial waters. Basically crystal from what we can see
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: so far is that this so called parameter of a
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: deal is based upon a meeting in which nothing was
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: agreed to between the Omani's and between the Iranians, in
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: which they were hashing out for themselves whether ships were
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: able to enter through Iran and exit through the Omani Route. Remember,
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: the United States is currently trying to route all traffic
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: through the Omani Route outside of Iranian territorial waters, of course,
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: which has been met with Iranian fire because of their
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: control of the Strait of Our Moose. In fact, just
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: hours after this deal was supposedly announced, Iran fired at
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  Speaker 3: a tanker which was trying to do just that hours ago.
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: As of last night, so nothing has actually been agreed to.
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: The blockade is on Trump just completely basically. I mean,
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: you know, chickened out because we want him to taco.
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: We want that here on this show. But ultimately it
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: came down to bluster threats didn't follow through because the
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: entire Gulf was like, please do not do this. You
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: can't defend us, and then our infrastructure will also be destroyed.
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right, And I wouldn't be surprised at all
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: because has agreed to nothing if they continue to take
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: shots at strategic assets in the region, because you know,
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: their view is that they need to continue to make
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  Speaker 2: us pay and force Trump to do more than chicken out,
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: because it's not enough for him to just walk away
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: from the current insane threat that he's making. He actually
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: has to accept a defeat. And that's why you can
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: never you can never dismiss these wild ravings from him.
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: You know, we see assets moving to the region, we
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: see him making these very public threats, we see leaks
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: in the press about wild plans that are being hatched
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: and considered in the situation room, and you can't dismiss it,
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: even though we go through this cycle time and time again,
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: because it's impossible to see him also accepting the deal
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: that would be on the table, which would acknowledge that
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: we have been completely defeated. So we're now in this
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: no man's land where it is very precarious, where it
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: is very uncertain what the next move is ultimately going
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: to be, and you cannot rule out that he may
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: get frustrated at some point and do some wild you know,
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: nuclear attack on Pickaxe Mountain or try to seize carg Island,
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: et cetera. Put a seven up on the screen. You
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: flagged this this morning. I mean, this gives you a
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: sense of just how desperate at of ideas they are.
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: They've taken to like crowdsourcing strategies for an attack.
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  Speaker 4: Here, this is from CNN.
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  Speaker 2: They say exclusive US military as troops for creative and
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: unconventional ideas to punish Iran. The request from a senior
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: officer at the US military command carrying out President Donald
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: Trump's war with Iran came in an email. We need ideas.
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: We are looking for new, creative and unconventional ways to
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  Speaker 2: pressure and punish Iran, an officer and US sent Comm's
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  Speaker 2: intelligence branch wrote in a message sent Wednesday to a
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: broad group of military analysts, according to a source familiar.
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: Second source also said a senior US military officer sent
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: the message last week, soliciting new ideas for how to
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: deal with Iran. The crowdsourcing style query, which military officials
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: said was unusual over email, is one sign of the
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: limited and potentially unpalatable options available to Trump to force
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: Iran into a deal on his terms. Hoping to find
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: an alternative, official at Sencom kicked off the brainstorming session
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: via email to see if anyone had a better idea.
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: The second source SITCOM is looking at everything, acknowledging it
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: needs to reevaluate the strategy. I mean this is wild,
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: I mean saber, think about think about this?
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: How long?
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: How many decades has the US military been thinking about
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: and wargaming and planning out what they would do vis
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: a vis Iran, considering we thought every possible scenario. And
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: so if you think, you know, if you're listening to
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: Mark Levin or you're missing listening to Ben Shapiro and
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: you're hearing all this confidence from people, Oh, we just
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: need to strike them harder, we just need to bomb
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: them a little bit more, and it's all going to
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: work out. The US military doesn't think, so they are
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: literally out of ideas and having to go to the crowd.
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: I don't know were we got nothing? You guys got
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: any thoughts on what we could do here?
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: Forty seven years, trillions of dollars and all I got
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: was this lousy email.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: I mean that kind of.
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: Sus top basically where we're at. You're going to the
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: junior officer corps and be like, hey, we've only spent
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: our entire careers planning for this. This has been the
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: number one thing, the op plan on the desk and
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: sent com commander. It's literally his job every year to
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: update the plan. And they executed that plan. It was
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: a tremendous failure. So what does that say about them?
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: And I'm sure there's some junior military officer and other
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: who's trying to come up with some better ideas, and
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: they could try, but the end of the day, you know,
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: what we have in front of us is very simple,
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: is within the bounds of what Trump actually this is.
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: And this, this dispels the entire thing. This is not
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: a military problem. This is a political problem, because if
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: this had a military solution, it would have already been done.
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: When it comes to unconventional ideas, and you know, let's
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: take past wars where the US was bought in, like
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: World War two or others. What would happen in a
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: situation like this is they would have buy in from
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: the business community, from the intellectuals, from all of society
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: who are all working together to creatively solve this very
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: very thorny issue. But here the vast majority of the population,
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: we want out any corporation that's not a defense contract
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: or other that's engaged in trying to do this. We're like, whoah,
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: we don't want to continue this war. We want this
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: over with, done for. And that's the biggest problem that
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: the White House faces politically.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: We don't want a ground invasion.
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: Sure it could happen, but that's not necessarily something that
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: any of us want at all.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: In fact, we want the total opposite.
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: And that's why within the confines of what Trump has,
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: where he has to have minimal casualties and he wants
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: to inflict maximum damage, there is no military solution to
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: this problem.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Period.
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: The sooner that we get to capitulation and to acknowledging
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: de facto Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, the
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: better we all are off. And in fact, you can
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: even see any even signs of peace quote unquote, or
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: even lack of action. You know, oil isn't like eighty
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: something dollars a barrel. You know, if this comes and
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: stays for the next two weeks, you will see dipping
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: below four dollars, and it'll just continue to be this
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: on and off cycle. But I do think that your
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: point about how the Iranians will very likely continue to
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: punish is because they see that the problem of oil
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: continuing to go up and down, and you know, up
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: and down is giving the White House the runway necessarily
• 11:24
  Speaker 3: that they don't want, because remember, the blockade is still
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: in power, and their economy is still suffering. They have
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: a much higher capacity for suffering than we do. They've
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: lost I mean, so many more people in the in
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: the engagements.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, we're going to talk about one of them. Actually,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: maybe we can just put.
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: It up here now a five for example, all of
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: what's being done in our name, you know, right now,
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: it appears to the United States we dropped a two
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: thousand pound bomb on a family home on Keshiam Island,
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: killing a husband, a wife, and their two year old son.
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: The paper found no indication of a nearby military target.
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: You can see the crater. I mean, it is stunning,
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: like genuinely crazy scenes out of Gaza. Why did we
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: kill these people for no reason? You know, absolutely not,
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: and their blood was shed for literally nothing in this case,
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: you know. And it shows also the point about scentcom
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: being like we need more ideas, we've run out of targets.
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: It appears if we're going around we're hitting family homes
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: with two thousand pound bombs. We're just bombing random stuff
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: in and along the straight up our moves or where
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: Iranian air defense capabilities are head and so you can
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: see like it is just a never ending cycle of
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: we bomb simply for the sake of bombing all blying
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: a you know, an actual diplomatic solution, and that diplomatic
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: solution will will involve the greatest strategic defeat of the
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: United States in modern history.
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  Speaker 1: And that's simply people.
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: We have to swallow it until we get until we
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: get used to that idea. Then this is just going
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: to be the status quo. And the President has not
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: suffered nearly enough to be able to get him to
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: that point because we all know, you know what it's
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: going to have to look like. It's just it is
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: the simple reality of the current facts that are in
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: front of us.
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: I mean, this two thousand pound bomb dropped on a
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: family home, trusts, constant threats to commit war crimes against
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: civilian and infrastructure, the of course triple bombing of a girls' school,
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: which I don't think anyone could say with a straight
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: face for sure was unintentional. We act just like the
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: Israelis now. You know, we spend a long time covering
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: the genocide in Gaza, saying that with all of the
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: qualms and critiques that we have of the way the
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: US military behaved in Iraq and Afghanistan, there were some
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: lines and I don't think that we can really say
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: that anymore, you know, I don't think that we would
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: give in a similar scenario. I mean, we backed the
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: entire Gaza genocide, so how can we even say separate
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: ourselves from any of this. This is exactly the way
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: that Israel behaves is the way we behave and we
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: think nothing of taking your tax dollars and using it
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: to buy two thousand pound bombs that we drop on
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: family homes, you know, in Iran. So that is what
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: our country is at this point, and people should be
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: horrified by that. Do you have any expectation that the
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: Trump administration will engage in any sort of investigation to
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: find out.
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: What happens here?
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: No?
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: Because there was theoretically an investigation into the girls school bombing,
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: and Trump came out and said, oh, well, we'll never
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: know what happened, meaning they'll never release the results. They
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: know exactly exactly what happened there. A couple things with
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: regard to the let's crowdsource and brainstorm the next move
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: here because we're out of ideas. Do you think Iron's
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: ount of ideas? No, they know exactly what they would
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: do next. They know exactly the way that they would escalate.
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: They have lots of ideas for how they could cause
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: even more pain and tighten the grip on the global economy,
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: which is obviously a primary strategy for them. So while
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: we're running around, I don't know what we do next.
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: We kind of blew our load with all the targets
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: and none of it's really having an impat And don't
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: really want to do this ground invasion because it will
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: be a complete and total disaster and probably won't work anyway.
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: Don't really want to do the whole tactical nuclear weapon
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: on Pickax Mountain.
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: Because of what that will unleash.
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: Iran has a plan and a strategy and has been
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: executing it quite effectively, so their coherence versus are chaotic. Incoherence,
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: I think tells you a lot to begin with here,
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: and let's go in. Put a six up on the screen.
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: In terms of how Iran is thinking about this, this
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: is from treet de Parsi. He's reflecting on the latest
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: Taco cycle. He says, yet another apocalyptic threat followed by
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: another self congratulatory climb down. The pattern is becoming tiresome.
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: By now, unable to escalate his way on of the
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: self inflicted debacle, Trump tries to bluff his way out,
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: except Tehran is not falling for it. Rather, it is
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: confidently raising the stakes, calculating Trump will only fully commit
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: to a diplomatic solution once he has internalized that he
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: does not have a military option. It's a risky strategy
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: with potential attacks in Egypt and cyber attacks in the US.
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: Will get to that in just a moment, but one
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: that the new and far lesser strained military leadership believes
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: is more likely to achieve security than giving into Trump.
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: So the next few days will undoubtedly be eventful, and
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: he's holding a Q and A session Friday. I believe
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: you can sign up over at his substack, which of
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: course we recommend that you do. But you know, the
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: reality here is Sager. It's easy for us to sit
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: here and say, hey, Taco all the way like, let's
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: get the hell out of here. That's what's going to
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: be best for the US. That's what's going to be
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: best for the war, for the world. This war is
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: an utter and complete disaster if you're Trump. And by
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: the way, also if you are a member of the
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: military brass the deep state, you're ideologically committed to the
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: US empire. We have to acknowledge that basically the end
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: of the US Empire admitting defeat and meaning that admitting
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: that we can't control the waterways. I mean, what are
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: we as an empire if we aren't, you know, out
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: there to secure free trade, free global trade and commerce
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: around the world. If we have to acknowledge, no, we
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: can't do this with iron even if we wanted to,
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: they get to have a say that is basically the
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: end of US Empire. And so that's why even a
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: lot of the military brass that had a lot of
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: reservations going into this, which were expressed clearly not force
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: fully enough to Trump, why they're still going to be
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: trying to figure this thing out and trying to come
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: up with a solution. Okay, if we do, you know,
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: some insane bombing campaign, if we do some sort of raid,
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: maybe there's some sort of hacking up, maybe we can
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: take on a few more regime leaders, they're going to
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: throw a lot at the wall because they've realized that
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: it is kind of all on the line here, and
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: you know, they're ideologically committed to the continuance of the
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: US Empire. And so that's why in a lot of
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: ways them and Trump are in the same boat at
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: this point.
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: Right that explains at one point five trillion dollar military
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: spending because they're like, oh, we just have to spend
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: even more on the exact same weapons that got us
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: into the same situation.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: That we're in right now.
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: We could have more weapons. Wouldn't matter, It literally wouldn't matter.
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: Wouldn't change anything about Iranian capitulation zero. What it would change, obviously,
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: is the American ability to defend other far fling parts
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: of our empire. But this is going to create like
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: the husbandry of resources, which is a disaster ultimately to
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: the prestige and to the image. Because it was inconceivable,
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: even to extreme military skeptics like me, that we would
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: be in this situation today. I mean, all the script
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: was written, though, to be fair, when we look at
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: the drone threat, when we look at the interestet we
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: talked about here for years and years, from the Ukraine
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: conflict to the Operation Midnight Hammer, the Reduction of Thad.
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: The script was there, but nobody expected I think the
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: Third Act to go in the direction that it ultimately did.
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: So now what's going to happen In my opinion, this
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: like Phase two style type thing where we have no
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: war and no peace. It's going to happen for a
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: very long period of time for the exactly the situation
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: that you just laid out. It's just like Afghanistan. Admitting
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: defeat is so catastrophic to the image and prestige and
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: of the United States and its military that we will
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: throw good money after bad ten times over just to
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: not have to admit defeat. And Trump will have to
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: be brought to a crushing economic situation to ultimately recognize
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: the de facto Irani and Romani control of the Strait
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: of Hormuz. Many, you know, the cranks of the people
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: like us who are like, why are we in this?
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: We will all be vindicated in the end, don't worry.
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: But in the interim, like you said, there are very
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: very powerful people here in Washington, many of whom didn't
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: even agree or want to launch the war in the
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: first place, who are now like, we have to put
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: it all on the line, this very First World war mentality.
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: You could see it through all ages, in all warfare.
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: Even though you have a useless and stupid situation, you're like, well,
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: for the future, for us as a nation to be
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: able to survive, we have to continue to do that.
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: And that's how you end up in these prolonged and
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: disastrous quagmires in Vietnam, perfect example.
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: Highly recommend everybody you know. You know, if you read
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: and look at.
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: The exact situation from how you go to a few
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: thousand military advisors to five hundred thousand American troops on
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: the ground.
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: It took five years.
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: It's nothing, but the logic in which it all happened
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: is exactly the way that it is right now. I
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: don't think we'll end up with ground troops at least
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: in a prolonged occupation sense like we are with it,
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: but that doesn't make it any less catastrophic.
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: We're basically all sitting here waiting around for either a
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: catastrophic economic crisis or a catastrophic political crisis, because those
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: are the things that would force this to an end.
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: And that is the Iranian understanding. So when will that come?
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: You know, We're We've talked endlessly about the strategic petroleum reserve,
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: about the oil markets. There's all sorts of you know,
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: interconnectivities in the economy that very hard even for experts
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: to predict when something is going to break in a
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: catastrophic manner. We're basically waiting around for that or we're
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: waiting around for the sort of political crisis, you know,
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: visa Vietnam, like a similar level political crisis that forces
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: Trump's hand, enforces an end here, although I think he's
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: more impervious to those horses, you know, than previous presidents were.
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: And for him, as long as he is like, you know,
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: staying out of prison and getting rich, then he only
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: cares so much. But the economic crisis, he doesn't want
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: to be remembered as Herbert Hoover. So so that's kind
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: of where we are, is just sitting here and wondering
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: when the global economic system is going to completely fall
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: apart in a way that forces their hand. And that's
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: kind of a terrible place to be.
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: Right, and it could take years, years and years.
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: So that's why we really need to buckle in. Let's
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: put a four up here on the screen. This is
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: very important. Also, you know we were talking here a
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: little bit about the empire. Well, it turns out that
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: Saudi Crown Prince MBS is one of the main reasons
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: that these attacks did not go forward. The Kingdom, by
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: the way, even released their readout of the call where
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: they explicitly said the Crown Prince asked President Trump not
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: to resume major air strikes on Iran. You never see
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: that out of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. What they
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: see here is that Salmon spoke to President Trump on
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: Saturday express concern over his plans for massive new strikes,
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: because of course Iran had actually published a list of
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: sites that would be struck in retaliation, many of them
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: in Saudi Arabia, which would have sent oil prices absolutely skyrocketing.
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: Quote the Saudi's express concern, asked for clarity about the
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: plan of action. NBS urged Trump to de escalate and
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: from launching the strikes. The apparently the Saudi Defense Minister,
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: who I think is the brother known as KBS, came
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: to Washington thirteen hour flight for a single meeting just
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: with the Vice President J. Dve Hans, in which he
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: begged him please do not go forward with these new strikes,
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: and then.
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: Flew back to Saudi Arabia.
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: That's how twenty six hours on a plane for a
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: one hour meeting in which they saw the situation that
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: dire that they couldn't even just pick up the phone,
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: I think again, just underscoring he's oh, he's got he's
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: definitely got Let's not, let's not you know, cry too
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: many tears for the for the rich princes of the
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: House of Riod, but you know, or the House of Sods. Sorry,
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: but I do think it underscores just how much of
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: a pain position that they are in. How the UA
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: so Saudi's in that position too, where remember they're exporting
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: some oil. The UAE and Bahrain are apparently pissed off
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: at the United States for not escalating the conflict because
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: they're done.
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: They're locked in right now.
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: And they're also I mean, UA is not getting pounded
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: as much, but Bahrain and Kuwait absolutely are. And they're like, hey,
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: why have we been buying all these weapons? We need
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: more interceptors, and Trump and them are like, yeah, you
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: needed interceptors, so does Ukraine, and so do we. So
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: basically we're the only ones getting them because we're the
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: ones who make it, which is what's making everybody rethink
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: their alliance. But I do think you know, to the
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: empire point, when you imagine this, you have an empire
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: of antiquity, you have the provinces of which you have
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: guaranteed their security. You start a war, which is disastrous
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: for said provinces, and then the provinces I guess usually
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: would say, hey, you need to come and defend us.
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: But when it gets revealed that you can't defend them,
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: then of course you're gonna have to go back to
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: the Imperial capital and say please, please, don't stop, because
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: you don't have the capacity to defend us, which means
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: that you're actually going to inflict pain. And that is,
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: as you said at the beginning of the end. None
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: of this will happen overnight. It happens over many, many years.
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: But you know, you can it is very easy, I think,
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: at least in this position now, to say generally, based
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: upon the course of history, we know where this story
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: is going to go, and none of it is good
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: for the US's ability to defend you know, quote unquote allies.
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: And I mean, you know, I talk a lot here
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: and I have for many years about NATO and all that.
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: I don't care about Estonia and Latvia or any of
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: the far flung posts, you know, nineteen nineties additions. But
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: I do care a lot about Japan and South Korea,
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: about really like the UK, I mean, you know, Australia,
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: actual critical trading partners, allies of the United States, and
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: right now we're in a situation where that's in question,
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: and that's what I think should scare everybody.
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: Do you care about SAYU to Spain because the place
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: I never knew existed.
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: Didn't even very interested. Now now, I mean, I got
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: to be honest, it is fascinating, totally.
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: No, I started going down that history rabbit hole too.
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: We'll get to that in a minute. So just one
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: last thing on in terms of the allies, the Saudis
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: have enough sort of size and societal strength and position
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: that I think they feel like, you know, they'll be
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: they'll be okay out of this uh war.
• 25:27
  Speaker 4: They don't like the attacks.
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: This is very bad for them, very bad for their economy,
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: all of that stuff, And so that's why they're coming
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: and like, hey, could we not do this? You know,
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: this hasn't worked out the way that you said it
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: was going to work out, because there were was reporting
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: that early on when Trump was saying, hey, it's going
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: to be four days, no problem, We're going to take
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: them out. It's going to be great. That Iranian has
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: been a pain in your butt. Now you'll have more
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: ascendance in the region. They were like, great, cool when
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: this hasn't gone the way they wanted. Now they want
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: out now, they want a deal, They want this to
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: be done. They want to go back to sort of
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: normal course of order. Not that that's entirely possible, but
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: Rain and UAE are more in the boat of sort
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: of like the US Empire protectors, like this is genuinely existential.
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: UA is barely a country. I mean, it really isn't
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: quite a proper country, and their whole thing is built
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: on their brand as this luxury respite for the global elite,
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: the global money launderers to come and stay and enjoy
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: and park their money. Being in a war zone is
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: not part of that deal. So they've got a real
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: existential problem. And then Bahrain has a problem as well
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: because their leadership doesn't have a lot of legitimacy. You've
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: got a lot of sites there or sympathetic to Iran,
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: so they haven't an existential issue as well. So I
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: think for those countries you can understand they're in this
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: sort of like all or nothing place as well. Where
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: to end the war now is going to be somewhat
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: unacceptable for them because they've you know, that threat will remain,
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: and that threat will loom and will undermine the very
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: sort of underpinnings of their of their states such as
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: they are. So I think that's part of why you
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: see a different response there. Let's put a three up
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: on the screen. You know, I'm not really sure what
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: to make of this, but in terms of what the
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: Iranians are up to or could be up to, there's
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: a report from the New York Times, and we've seen
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: some other reporting that the Iranians have. It looks like
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: potentially the Iranians have hacked US water supply systems in
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: seven different states that we know of, Minnesota being one,
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: Michigan being the other. I don't think we know what
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: the other five states are specifically. This is one of
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: those saga where they say, well, it bears the hallmarks
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: of an Iranian hack.
• 27:36
  Speaker 4: We don't know for sure. It's possible. You know.
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: I take it sort of more seriously than perhaps I
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: otherwise would, for two reasons. Number one, because Trump wants
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: to downplay it, Like if this was some sort of
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: a you know, an intel op from the US government
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: or from the Israelis, it feels like Trump would embrace it.
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, they're coming after us. That's why we've got
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: to attack them, We've got to neutralize the threat, et cetera.
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: He has very much wanted to downplay these and even
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: tried to blame the Minnesota government for hacking their own
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: water system.
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: Okay, sure.
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: And then the other reason is because true to Parsi,
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: of course, we have a lot of respect for thinks
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: that it's possible that this was the Iranians as well
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: as a sort of warning shot. They didn't do anything
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: here that really caused problems. It was more of an
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: announcement of their capabilities of hey, you know, nice water
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: supply system you have. They're connected to the internet. Shame
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: if something would happen to it. Again, I'm not sure,
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: and neither are the analysts who are quoted in this
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: New York times pace, but it's definitely something to consider
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: and pay attention to because we feel very protected here
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: in the US. We have, you know, a lot of
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: our own geographic advantages which are tremendous, and we know
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: that Iranian missiles can't reach our homeland.
• 28:47
  Speaker 4: Our shores here.
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: It's a reminder that in a world that is completely interconnected,
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: they still do have potential ways to you know, disrupt
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: life here. As well and get at us and mess
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: with us. And of course we know that also from
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: every time we to the gas pump and see what
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: the price is.
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: I am always skeptical of these types of stories. Everyone
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: should be too. It does make sense in the way
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: they traded to put it, and that it would be
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: the horizontal escalation in terms of you mess with our
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: power plants, We're going to try.
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: And mess with yours.
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: And it has always been kind of a glaring cybersecurity
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: problem that we have major holes and problems with our
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: utility companies energy. I mean even in terms of our airlines.
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: You know, United or American gets grounded every other week
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: because of an IT problem.
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: We don't know why, but that's hundreds.
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: Of billions of dollars you know, at stake if that
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: we were to have a sustained shutdown.
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: So it's very possible that could be there. Obviously, we'll
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: watch it.
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: Like you said, too, Trump downplaying it does seem to
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: actually make me think, hmm, maybe there was actually something there.
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: Because if it were real, or if it were something
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: that or sorry, if it weren't real, if it was
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: like a manufactured thing to try and to escalate the war,
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: then people who would want to use it as a
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: pretext would certainly be crying. So we'll see they make
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: knowing this administration, they may turn around and do sometime
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: in the future. All right, let's get to the military.
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: One of the things that we have learned from this
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: war is what a failure the US basing strategy has
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: been throughout the region. And now we have this extraordinary
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: development we can put up here on the screen. After
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: how many years have we been in Iraq because of
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: this war, it appears that we are approaching an actual
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: full withdrawal from Iraq. As bases in the Kurdistan region
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: face attacks from Iran and their proxies, Patriot air defense
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: systems that detect and shoot down incoming missiles and drones
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: have already been removed. According to Al Monitor and their sources,
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: let me go ahead and read you a little bit
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: of this article. They say the US military has started
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: to draw down its last remaining forces from Iraq station
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: in the vicinity vicinity of Ourbiel's Airport in the Iraqi
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: Kurdistan region. Well placed sources tell al Monitor Patriot mobile
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: air to surface air defense systems that detect and shoes
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: down incoming missiles, drones, and other airborne enemy equipment have
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: already been removed from the military compound. The pullout started
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: last week and is ongoing, with the bulk of the
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: US forces and their heavy equipment out. All of the
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: Patriot anti missile batteries had been redeployed to an undisclosed destination,
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: they said, adding that other defensive weapons systems remained in
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: place as of the time of publication. Regional officials claim
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: the pullout was sager routine and in line with the
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: US commitment to withdraw all its forces from Iraq by
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: a September thirtieth deadline that was agreed with Baghdad. So
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: I think we can read the tea laves here, and
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: I mean this is pretty extraordinary. Basically, Iran wants us
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: out of the region, and in a way, we are
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: being forced to oblige because we can no longer protect
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: our forces throughout the region. We have to marshal our
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: resources as we run low on all sorts of missiles
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: and missile interceptors and all the rest. So we have
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: to strategically reposition to make sure we can attack I
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: guess the most vital assets at this point, and so
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: after all of this. It is now the Iran war
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: that has actually forced us to fully withdraw from Iraq,
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: where we never should have been in the first place.
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: Well, yeah, that's kind of where I was going to start.
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: It's like, well, let's actually look at the history of
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: the space of Kurdistan. This was one of the jump
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: off points between the United States and ISIS where we
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: fought side by side the United States Special Forces and
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: a lot of the Kurdish troops that helped defeat ISIS
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: both in Iraq and in Syria. But then let's actually
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: take a step back even further and let's think about
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: why these bases and all of that have to be
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: driven out in the first place. Is the truth is,
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: we invaded this country of Iraq, and yeah, we deposed
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: Saddam Hussein and we turned it by our own admission,
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: into an Iranian proxy state, in which the Iraqi Prime
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: Minister has had to come here to Washington and effectively demand,
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: as of a few weeks ago, that we leave. And
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: remember that was an agreement that was agreed to in
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: the Oval Office in which Trump and the Iraqi PM said, yes,
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: the United States is to exit the country, but it's
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: going to do so not on terms that are ours
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: and not in terms of a quote unquote prosperous Iraq
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: that has the ability to thrive as a democracy is
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: George W. Bush and all that's sold to us, but
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: one in which there are major Iranian military proxies which
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: have the ability to shoot drones at American service members.
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: And don't forget this is also where multiple service members
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: were dyed in a mysterious air crash of those two tankers.
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: Let's not forget that. And there's still a lot of
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: questions that surround it. In addition to just last week
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: that unexploded drone that actually was exploded by some EOD
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: tech and ended up killing a nearby American service member.
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: That happened in Iraq alongside those three casualties that also
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: happened in Jordan. So we still have forces that are
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: there on the ground having to leave basically unceremoniously, and
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: in the midst of all of this, especially not on
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: our own terms, does demonstrate ultimately the benefit to Iran
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: and to their strategy. This also comes on the heels
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: of the empty we've seen previously of the Aladeid Air
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: Base in Doha, which was a huge base of operations.
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: I used to live very nearby it SEC seventeen's and
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: these transport planes that were.
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: Coming in I was there in two thousand and eight.
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: The would be coming in all hours of the day
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: bringing in supplies and troops and all this other stuff
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: for the war in Iraq. To have to abandon that
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: for the drone or the missile threat is crazy. We
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: also have seen similar situation in Kuwait and Bahrain in
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: which the air defense either was knocked out or non existent,
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: troops having to go sleep in hotels. So we've seen
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: this now time and time again, where being driven out
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: not just the basis, but of the ability to use
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: them for the function that we ultimately wanted, which is
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: the major problem. And I think that you compare this,
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: as we've talked about previously with the military failure. The
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: truth is is like we are living through what is
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: technically called like a revolution in military affairs. I won't
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: go into all of it, but it is a fascinating
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: intellectual exercise in which you know the ways in which
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: warfare is conducted and understood is complete lately. Change I've
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: talked to here previously about the battleship and World War
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: two and how what changed about the what changed in
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: the theory of the battleship to ability to project power
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: and how that was blown up in a single second
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: whenever aircraft were able to sink them in a matter
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: of seconds. It completely changed the understanding of naval warfare
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: at that time. Well this time, you know, it also
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: happened in the nineteen nineties. Again bore everybody with the details.
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: But the drone threat and the missile threat in particular,
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: along with the interceptor math and the exchange between those
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: two is another one I think that we're all living through.
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: And I saw some discussion about that today and you
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: can actually see it with B three, which is really shocking.
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: I mean, first of all, when we read this headline,
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: some might even ask why are we protecting Israel in
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: the first place. But the top the US general in
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: the region has now warned the Pentagon quote hey lacks
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: sufficient forces to protect Israel. He says that a shortage
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: of navy destroyers used to defend against Iranian ballistic missile
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: attacks will now have to force the head of European
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: Command to prioritize the US homeland instead. He says that
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: the Pentagon this week he lacks sufficient naval forces to
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: continue protecting Israel from incoming ballistic missiles, illustrating how the
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: ongoing Iran war has imposed the constraints on the military
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: and that he will be forced to choose between defense
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: of the US quote homeland as in basis, over that
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: of Israel, who, like some others, spoke on the condition
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: of anonymity here to the Washington Posts. But what I
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: think this demonstrates, first of all, is that same empire
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: problem that we had previously. Don't forget that we had
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: a situation where the United States was expending more of
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: our interceptors than Israel was expending of their own, even
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: though they have them. Why for no reason that has
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: ever been revealed here to the public. Let's not forget
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: that in the Operation Midnight Hammer in thirteen days, the
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: United States expended twenty five percent of the entire THAD inventory,
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: twenty five percent of everything that we had, just to
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: shoot down missiles that were headed towards Israel, not towards
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: the United States. So see now how the defense of Israel,
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: not just in terms of them dragging us into this
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: war or being complicit, et cetera, convincing Trump to do it,
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: but even just the sheer military defense of them, what
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: it has cost us and allies that are actually.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: Meaningful and helpful to our country.
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: I think when you pour these two things together, or
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: a pair of these two things together, and then show
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: these golf allies, which, by the way, you know, I'm
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: not some big golf defender, but if you're going to
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: look at it in a balance sheet, you'd say, we
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: get a hell of a lot more from Kuwait or
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: Bahrain or any of these places than we do from Israel,
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: this tiny little country with no even oil or in
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: terms of our trading, and especially if you're to put
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: them together, you would obviously prioritize one over the other.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: And I'm not just the one saying that.
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: Remember we even played Saudi's on their own television in
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: the midst of the war, who were furious saying they're
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: defending Israel but they can't even defend us. It's such
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: a crazy situation total.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: I mean, let's just pause on the wild nature of
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: even having to say, well, we've got a tough choice
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: on our hands, defend Israel or defend the whole Like,
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: how is this even being framed as?
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: I don't know which way should we go. But it
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: shows you how.
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: Committed they are to the endless support of this small
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: country in the Middle East, which is I think quite insane,
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: quite insane. At this point, Let's go ahead and put
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: B two up on the screen, just to show you
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: some of the state of play here. In terms of
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: the economy. Trump says the Iran talks or to resume
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: after the US called off a major attack. Oil prices
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: are down after the latest taco so once again the
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: market's taking seriously whatever Trump is saying here and buying
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: himself some war time. Let's also put before up on
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: the screen. This goes to what we're speaking about previously
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: about how locked in the deep state and the military
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: brass is. You've got a US commander who plans, he
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: claims he's got a two week plan to escalate strikes
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: in Iran. The idea here just basically being let's bomb
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: the more and bomb them harder, and maybe that'll work.
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: This is also something that was leaked to the Wall
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: Street Journal prior to Trump backing down, so I think
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: this could also potentially be seen as part of just
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: the you know, using the weaponizing the press to try
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: to make a credible threat against Iran that would hopefully
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: cause some sort of you know, create some sort of
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: leverage for the US and negotiations, and force Iron to
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: concede things that they have been unwilling to concede. This
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: obviously didn't work, But I also don't doubt Soger that
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: there are plenty of people inside of the Pentagon who
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: find coming to a deal that acknowledges defeat at this
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: point to be completely unacceptable. In are floating a lot
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: of wild plans, wild desperate plans, because wild and desperate
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: plans are all we have at this point.
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: That's very true, you know.
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: I also think we should pair some of this with
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: the sheer insanity of what it actually looked like like
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: what this war if Trump had actually pressed the button
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: and said it would let's go to before. For example,
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: this was the actual plan, all leaked out to the
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: Wall Street Journal. It was a two week plan to
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: escalate strikes. As Trump reiterates for the Iran's missile attack,
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: the question is how long the new air campaign will last.
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: This Encom commander had pushed a ten to fourteen day
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: intensive air strike aimed to cripple Iran's missile capacity. Despite
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: warnings that the US is running low on defense munitions. Basically,
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: what Admiral Cooper had been pushing, who is the leader
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: of Sencom, was well, what we can do is we
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: can cripple the Iranian ballistic missic capacity a little bit
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: more if you give me all the spare munitions and
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: interceptors in the entire arsenal. That was his plan, and
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: in addition to that, Trump was also saying we would
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: hit some of these critical infrastructure.
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: But one of the things that we learned.
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: After the pause of or after the pause or whatever
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: you want to call the initial ceaspire was even though
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: we'd said we destroyed ninety five percent of Iran's ballistic
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: missic capacity, it turns out the number was more like
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: thirty percent. And then that thirty percent a lot of
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: it was able to be dug out as a now
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: evidence by the fact that they were able to hit
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: one of our bases which killed several US service members,
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: and I've been able to use them all across the
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: region in the interim. So I do think that you know,
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: when we talked previously about Sendcom asking for unconventional ideas,
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: this idea and this plan is so you know, ludicrous
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: in its actual proposal to basically just continue what what's
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: already had been done and to quote finish the job
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: in terms of the targets, as if those targets had
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: done anything what they were supposed to do in the
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: first place, which was bring down the regime, even in
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: conjunction with all of these insane Israeli air strikes. So
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: I just want to make sure people know that's what
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: the actual plan.
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: Was on the table.
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and quite to the contrary, it just strengthened the
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: government by all accounts, as best we can tell from
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: the outside. Put the last element in this block up
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: on the screen here, guys, B six. This is just
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: important to note where we are at this point. This
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: is from the New York Times. It's framed under what
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: they call news analysis, which is somewhere between you know,
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: reporting and opinion. This is Stephen Erlinger, who they say
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: has covered issues related to Ron since the Islamic Revolution
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: in nineteen seventy eight. And the analysis here is going
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: to be very similar to things you've been hearing on
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: the show for quite a while, they say. And around
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: the US of pars headed for a strategic defeat, Allies fear,
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: with none of President Trump's aims accomplished and the straight
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: deformat is closed, US allies see dysfunction and vulnerability from
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: the war. To see this sort of analysis in the
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: New York Times, you know, which is very hawkish, very
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: pro American empire outlet, is I think a significant development
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: in and of itself and a sign of the times
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: of how undeniable the.
• 42:43
  Speaker 4: Defeat has become in this war.
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: And you know, I like how they frame it in
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: terms of our allies fear, but very much the you know,
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: the writing is on the wall here in terms of
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: what we've been unable to accomplish and how on every
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: objective that we claimed during this war that we had,
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: we have gone backwards from where we started. So everything
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: that you know, whether it's Iranian pursuit of a nuclear weapon,
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: whether it's wanting to topple the regime, whether it's wanting
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: to back up the protesters in the streets, whether it's
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: in terms of the straight of horm who's on every
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: single one of these metrics that have been floated at
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: times as objectives of the war. We have undeniably gone
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: in the opposite direction and have much much less leverage
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: in order to secure the aims than we did before
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: we started this foolish war, and that is now being
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: openly acknowledged in mainstream publications like the New York Times.
• 43:36
  Speaker 3: Yep, exactly right. Yeah, I mean to the extent that
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: it's just saying what a lot of people already know.
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: You know, it's not actually important for what it says,
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: but it's important for where it appears at the front
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: page on Sunday, and that just means things are a
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: lot worse, you know, once they get to that point,
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: you can just bet that it's actually much much worse
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: in terms of what all of us on the bleeding
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: edge can see, all right, should we get to Max Miller.
• 44:04
  Speaker 4: Indeed,