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The Fantasy Football Players Everyone Is Getting Wrong · Fantasy NFL Today

0:00
[SPEAKER_01]: What up, everyone?
0:00
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host, John Mocells.
0:01
[SPEAKER_01]: This is for either production, so the fantasy NFL today pod.
0:05
[SPEAKER_01]: I got one of my main men Brian shade on.
0:07
[SPEAKER_01]: He just dropped his projection model for the season.
0:10
[SPEAKER_01]: It is unbelievable.
0:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, you should check it out.
0:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Go check out this for thief's website, get a subscription, and get a head start on your league.
0:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Brian would shake it.
0:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Not too much.
0:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Just kind of dig it into the details, studying that charts and trying to get ahead.
0:24
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, we're on like what year three or four of the model.
0:29
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd say three of it like solid.
0:31
[SPEAKER_00]: I did like a really rough model to first use so I won't count that
0:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
0:36
[SPEAKER_01]: So Google, Google 100 different ways here.
0:38
[SPEAKER_01]: It'll talk about the needs of players, but just the model of general.
0:41
[SPEAKER_01]: And he changes you made this year.
0:42
[SPEAKER_01]: And he like little tweaks or any like or any, what do you, what do you love that it covers and what does it kind of miss?
0:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I would say, biggest changes are just we have more data.
0:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Another year data, another offense to like kind of base the projections off of a lot of the like,
1:02
[SPEAKER_00]: The thing I love that I can kind of pick an off end from the past three issues years, and I can, that's what I'll base kind of the starting bones of a projection offer.
1:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, do I think, I don't know, Cincinnati, you all think, so I think it's going to be like last year or Joe Burrow, it's heard or can I pick another year or Joe Burrow, it's been healthy the whole time.
1:22
[SPEAKER_00]: I can, I can kind of pick and choose stuff like that with just more data because it's.
1:27
[SPEAKER_00]: in the model.
1:28
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's stuff like that that I like and just in general, like projection models are based on kind of the medium outcome.
1:35
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's going to be people who might who you might see that's pretty low and you'd be like, oh, why are they so low?
1:43
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, well, they have the outside to go higher, but like,
1:46
[SPEAKER_00]: They also have the upside to plus.
1:47
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's just very much the middle tier.
1:49
[SPEAKER_00]: And in draft, you want to draft upside.
1:52
[SPEAKER_00]: And if they bus, they bus, you just drop, et cetera.
1:55
[SPEAKER_00]: But like in a projection, you don't base all, you can't really base them off of just being dropped.
2:00
[SPEAKER_00]: So there is a lot of that in there.
2:04
[SPEAKER_00]: And it is, I'd say the biggest part of the model is just picking and choosing, wow, this offense has a potential for a lot of points.
2:12
[SPEAKER_00]: This is where I see it going right now.
2:14
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd say probably the biggest example of that is, which is surprising, Pittsburgh.
2:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Pittsburgh's running backs, and Rogers loves to throw it to the right kind of thing.
2:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, it was awesome at the end of last year.
2:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, where are those targets going?
2:27
[SPEAKER_00]: At the moment, I haven't gone to jail anymore and he looks great.
2:30
[SPEAKER_00]: They could change, like, there's stuff like that that I really want to keep an eye.
2:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
2:34
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you've got so many different ways to go here.
2:37
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's just quit Pittsburgh.
2:38
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, Jan and Warren, because last year was weird because Warren got most of the carries, Gainwell was the receiving back, but now they brought down and Warren's obviously because it dual threat.
2:47
[SPEAKER_01]: And I feel like that was going to get the carry.
2:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Then Warren's going to get the receiving touches.
2:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously not, you know, zero sound, but in general.
2:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I think that's what you like, I don't really want the running back.
3:00
[SPEAKER_00]: They don't want the main rusher there.
3:01
[SPEAKER_00]: I want the guy who's getting six targets from Aaron Rodder to game.
3:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe, I mean, kind of came well with the top 201, I think.
3:10
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
3:10
[SPEAKER_00]: And that was, and most of it was at the end of the season.
3:12
[SPEAKER_00]: So he was just getting eight receptions at the running back position.
3:15
[SPEAKER_00]: That's great.
3:16
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what I want.
3:18
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't necessarily want the 12 carries for 60 yards.
3:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, yeah, I know does sound okay cool.
3:25
[SPEAKER_01]: So since you opened it up for me He said the send the guys that aren't projected as well.
3:30
[SPEAKER_01]: Just I'll just do couple of my guys So immediately that's what I look for when I was looking at you know the projections America book up.
3:37
[SPEAKER_01]: He's like my number one guy my must have don't leave with that.
3:40
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's like 849 yards and I immediately was like That is crazy low.
3:44
[SPEAKER_01]: I get it.
3:45
[SPEAKER_01]: Production stuff, but yeah, then I immediately went to look who has a higher projection than him
3:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I think people like him, it's just where is that Mike Evans working.
3:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Chris Godman was out a lot of the year, so like where is all that gonna go?
4:04
[SPEAKER_00]: Is it all gonna go to Bucca?
4:06
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, Bucca also kind of was down.
4:09
[SPEAKER_00]: He was great at the game of the year and then went down when everyone got healthier.
4:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, you know, so you see that hamstring strain, right?
4:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
4:16
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that was pretty much what it was, but yeah.
4:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so it's very much like what's a meeting now,
4:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I think expecting him to go over a thousand yards and be the 25 plus percent target shares.
4:32
[SPEAKER_00]: You want that, but are we going to expect that, and it's, I don't want it.
4:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's more of a say with the name.
4:39
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, I get it.
4:39
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just funny.
4:40
[SPEAKER_01]: That's where I went because I just, you know, I've but he has do an analyst doing this.
4:44
[SPEAKER_01]: You got to put your wrap for your name on these dirty guys, right?
4:47
[SPEAKER_01]: So I immediately went to look at the progression.
4:49
[SPEAKER_01]: One of the guys that was pleasantly surprised, Malik Willis, right?
4:54
[SPEAKER_01]: He's also my guy.
4:55
[SPEAKER_01]: I said he could be top five QB this season.
4:57
[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to like to keep you 22.
4:58
[SPEAKER_01]: Everyone hates Miami.
4:59
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm on this loan Miami bandwagon and it's a little scary.
5:03
[SPEAKER_01]: I said, look around it's empty seats, but you had Willis going for the 25 passing PDs, 500 rushing yards, and I was like, he's thrown more passes in Josh Allen.
5:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and that was a difficult, that was definitely a difficult one to project.
5:17
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, do I choose Miami's offense last year, which was two a base, quarterback never ready ram.
5:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Or do I take a little bit of green base offense and then just kind of revert it back to the me because like it's not going to be as efficient as green base offense, but you take a lot of those kind of specifics and green bay was make way more rush rush ethic and I would assume with milk willus you kind of compare those offenses.
5:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I would not to say it's comparable, but like a Josh Allen or the Mar Jackson, there's run heavy quarterback all fences, even Dale and Herbs, like they're way more 50-50 when it comes to the Russian past share.
5:56
[SPEAKER_00]: But when you look at like a normal, I'm just Jared golf, just facing good quarterback, he's a normal quarterback where he's not going to run much, like that those averages are more like 55-56 pass.
6:11
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm trying to get it in a situation where there's, it's just more run heavy than you would expect.
6:16
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's where I think in choose, I like him, the issues, I don't like, the dolphins are hard, like they could just suck.
6:25
[SPEAKER_01]: They're working too hard.
6:26
[SPEAKER_01]: They're working too hard.
6:27
[SPEAKER_01]: So basically, based on that, it's well as projections, like where do you, where does he, for the QB rankings?
6:32
[SPEAKER_01]: I would think with that, rushing yards and rushing TVs, all that passing work, that looks like the QB7.
6:38
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this is right out the rip, but,
6:41
[SPEAKER_00]: he was five.
6:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
6:44
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just one of those, you know, because I'm out of living, and then I got, I got the numbers to back it up for a few.
6:49
[SPEAKER_00]: I just, it was it made me feel like a lot better about, about everything.
6:53
[SPEAKER_00]: And another thing to think about is like, we, a lot of people project them to suck.
6:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
7:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Think of a team that sucked last year in the gardens.
7:03
[SPEAKER_00]: To go eat per set through the ball, so much.
7:07
[SPEAKER_00]: So when you're a team that's losing majority of the time, you are going to throw it more.
7:11
[SPEAKER_00]: So while, yes, I expect them to be a bit more round happy just to do to Millik Willis, he's still going to have the opportunity to be throwing it in.
7:19
[SPEAKER_00]: He could go, he could almost not James Winston type stats, but like, James Winston, where it's a few picks, or a few turnovers, a few touchdowns, and he's running a little bit just because they're always from behind, for fantasy, that looks great.
7:33
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not going to say they're going to win a bunch of games as a result, but I don't
7:37
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't care about winning for fantasy.
7:39
[SPEAKER_01]: No, I know, yeah.
7:40
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that maybe the Justin Fields Chicago is the better cop.
7:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, where he's like running for like 70 80 and then he still throw for like 200 because they were bad and he could You know, and he kind of had the weapons, but he doesn't really have the weapons So I think they're going to be more 50 50 I think it's going to be like the the bills and ravens off That's 50 10 year off last but the green bay comp was was funny because I get what you're saying green bay's run heavy But they're not efficient like Miami I I've been anything Miami's going to have a higher yards for rocks than green bay this season
8:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think Green Bay, because he started for them, and they had a few.
8:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that's true.
8:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's true.
8:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, because Jordan level South, like half the year or whatever.
8:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, that, oh, so that version of the offense.
8:21
[SPEAKER_01]: That makes a way for me.
8:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
8:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
8:23
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's a sticky on Miami.
8:24
[SPEAKER_01]: Then I saw a chain, and obviously if I, if they loved Willis, they got love A chain.
8:29
[SPEAKER_01]: But then you only got them for like a thousand and 50 rush yards.
8:32
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, I got it, media, whatever.
8:33
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think he had 1200 last season, he's like 5.8 yards per carry.
8:37
[SPEAKER_01]: He showed he can handle the workload.
8:39
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know like they're going to be running the ball like crazy.
8:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's just kind of like previously, when you have a rushing quarter back, you're going to that, I would expect Malik well, it's a probably get about 20% of the team's rush is 15 to 20.
8:55
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you're looking at last season, yeah, the bond HM might have had like 55% rush there.
9:00
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, yeah, he was exactly at 55% last year.
9:03
[SPEAKER_00]: You take 10% away, like it's not an all pump of him, but.
9:07
[SPEAKER_00]: maybe some of the backups will be healthy and like they want a chain and more that receiving role.
9:13
[SPEAKER_00]: So you can add against L. Hampton carries with Ali Gordon, Jim and Wright, or whoever the cool back of it is like.
9:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, and that makes sense.
9:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you, and we'll still be high at the rest of the class again.
9:24
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think this is like the third year in me asking this question, there isn't really an answer, but because you talk about how the running QBs eat into the running background chair, obviously that makes sense.
9:33
[SPEAKER_01]: But it seems like every running QB has a good running back.
9:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Like the ability to QB to run helps the running back, right?
9:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Josh Allen, Dave Cook, from our Jackson Dair at Henry.
9:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Jalen Hertz, St. Kwon.
9:46
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I know these are all great running backs, but it seems like it does help the running game, but there's never been a stat to help
9:53
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of it is like the even New York's precarious and the best metric is more like Yards precarious because you have it's more that where like they might not get it many carried but they're more efficient because defense has to respect another person in the back.
10:06
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't know who the well you technically don't know who the law is going to.
10:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Jared golf is saking a hand off like you don't expect him to run that type of thing.
10:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Really good that you could see in more of a read option role he can take their work.
10:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I'm, I'm no shade of Jeragolf.
10:23
[SPEAKER_00]: He's just like, could prototype a quarter of it, but it's just more that.
10:27
[SPEAKER_00]: And he can be more efficient and just in general, like, I don't expect this team to be winning much.
10:32
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's going to be rushing yards.
10:35
[SPEAKER_00]: I think our going to be hard to come by, like the passing yards that I had for Milliequillus, just, this is obviously first go round.
10:43
[SPEAKER_00]: But like, he was almost at 3800 yards passing.
10:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
10:46
[SPEAKER_00]: To me, he feels like a lot.
10:48
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not in a question next to that.
10:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you very much.
10:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
10:54
[SPEAKER_01]: No, but it's just mine because out there they're graduating proctor the online stats are hard to read But some I had some like stats BFF was saying, you know top 10 online in the run protection You had the best run block, you know guy in the draft.
11:07
[SPEAKER_01]: I think I think if my enemy is gonna be good They're gonna have a 50 50 run split and then it's just gonna be a Malik and a chain just just carving up defenses And then if you know some of the rookie receivers can hit I think with a set of two to out well
11:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no, it's not terror or it's just, it's how, how many points is that?
11:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I'm just going to put it on the yard and like, to be fair, I'd pretty, I'm trying to filter it now, like, eight chains probably pop, he's probably still a top 10 russher in yard, it's like it's not like I have a bunch of people going over the yard, so it's not crazy, but you draft a chain for his passing.
11:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, but his he didn't make he was actually more of a rupture than a kind of a receiver last year But anyway, so Not Miami Even though that's all I'm talking about so people are getting using the tool because there's just so much there It is projection model.
12:06
[SPEAKER_01]: What do you follow?
12:07
[SPEAKER_01]: What's the best way to kind of optimize it for someone you know who just got it in their learning for me?
12:13
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like I just I look at that running back those right rush share, right rushing here kind of percentage That's my my ground zero
12:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, it's more, I would probably say, easiest way to look at it, it's start felt to invite position, who sticks out to.
12:29
[SPEAKER_00]: So I can do tie-down because you love tie-down position.
12:34
[SPEAKER_00]: We kind of have like the top four, I think.
12:37
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, some people put lobbed one up there.
12:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, I got, he was in the four already.
12:42
[SPEAKER_00]: For me, I have top four, just volume based, to his McBride Bowers, Tyler Warren, and this is a part time volume, and then George Beer.
12:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, okay, I'll pick Kelly's, I can't put up.
12:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that's, that's also difficult.
12:55
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, I'll probably be changing him as we get more information.
12:59
[SPEAKER_00]: It seems like he's practicing, so that's, that's more hard to come by.
13:04
[SPEAKER_00]: The other, the two people can come next.
13:07
[SPEAKER_00]: I hate drafting them, but like I might think about it.
13:10
[SPEAKER_00]: They are the safest items and you will hate them every week, but they will get you 9 points.
13:15
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's, oh, Kyle, don't miss it.
13:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, don't help.
13:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Ow.
13:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Because like, they get by on the upper, and past few seasons, they're like 15, the 20% architecture.
13:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that's really good for a title.
13:28
[SPEAKER_00]: So, and they're going super late.
13:31
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, like, yeah, I get the upside in love with and I will be drafting in love with in my lead tire.
13:38
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just because he could win 100 Henry Dalton Schultz and I'm not going to win me.
13:43
[SPEAKER_00]: But if I don't get one of the top guys, I'm super fine.
13:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm just waiting for the tie-down for the show.
13:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Just I'm not, but I get it.
13:51
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's the next week.
13:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go again, so I'll have a proper hour for one of my guys.
13:56
[SPEAKER_01]: I looked at him.
13:57
[SPEAKER_01]: I couldn't believe how low his yard is was.
13:59
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like 807 or something.
14:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Eight six or eight six nine, but yeah.
14:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Like just because I mean, I just, what's, I don't get the, the what goes into that, because obviously target share with no wider severs, I'm sure he's going to be, he's going to be probably 26, 28% target share.
14:17
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just how good do we think that offense is going to be?
14:20
[SPEAKER_00]: mediocre I mean oh line free belt they got lender bomb genties probably gonna be really good cousins is still you know you can still throw 25 TDs 35 4,000 yards with a bunch of picks yeah that's ideal to like I just I mean I used last year's all-fent and it was kind of sucked and then even 24% target share could definitely be higher part of that's also just like all right let's say he's hurt for three weeks he puts up
14:47
[SPEAKER_00]: not in general like it's a little discounted just based on if you're heard that's zero for a game.
14:54
[SPEAKER_00]: So, if you think about a 20, if people get hurt to games and they're projected 25% like that means in game they're probably closer to 30 each game.
15:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'll pay out this bet.
15:08
[SPEAKER_01]: I like it that.
15:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Because I know you also use Vegas, right?
15:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Vegas is the big thing with the system of the anesthesia and point out of, like, did, have you done any hops?
15:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, what's Brock Bowers is, I feel like his line for the season is probably like a lot of 50.
15:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, the Vegas is more difficult because I use Vegas for weekly projection.
15:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Right now, the point total is yeah.
15:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
15:28
[SPEAKER_00]: And, and like if I know someone's healthy, I'm gonna give them probably closer to 30% archer.
15:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
15:36
[SPEAKER_00]: If I look at a season long target share,
15:39
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we can just, I know he was hurt last season, but yeah, he's been one, played hurt.
15:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Miss some time, they came back, scored three touchdowns.
15:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, like he was 17 and a half last season on the season.
15:50
[SPEAKER_00]: So 24 is way healthier.
15:53
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not saying he's gonna get hurt, but when he played, he was probably closer to the 25, 30% target there.
15:59
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm going to be 30% on this season for a target share.
16:01
[SPEAKER_00]: That's quite, you know, it's guaranteed a wide receiver one.
16:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, well, that's been because JSN was 36 last year could be a game over.
16:08
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel it's going to be a similar, you know, run through the one guy offense.
16:13
[SPEAKER_01]: What did you like, so Seattle, TSN, what do you do with him?
16:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Because of the 36 last year, what is he, is he just down to a mediocre 28?
16:23
[SPEAKER_00]: 29, but yeah, I'll try to revert it closer to the mean like it's not like they have a bunch of other targets like all right for she should he now has a full off season in the offense I think he'll be better Cooper Cops a year older is Tori Horton did pretty well when he before he got hurt.
16:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, yeah, I feel like our A.A. Barnard is kind of getting to love and they still have the rookie from last year Roya like
16:46
[SPEAKER_00]: They have options, but yeah, they were fully targeted to one person is the new offensive coordinator is he going to fully target one diagonal.
16:55
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
16:56
[SPEAKER_01]: So tried to kind of spread it out a little but so is that on in like, do you see that 36% is kind of an outlier and it's if it's just back to like the lead leader like 20 29% essentially that so Jason is not quite a fade, but it's like I'm not taking him, you know, top five.
17:16
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he's still one of the top projected target cheats that I have.
17:19
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, I'm in Ross, 28 and kind of think, well, saves the 30 S.A. You chases 30, Tramigrides 26.
17:25
[SPEAKER_01]: No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no
17:38
[SPEAKER_00]: It's similar to like, no, I don't think there was maybe one or two to have 30 on top of my Drake London was out there.
17:45
[SPEAKER_00]: I know, I started to at least when he was healthy, but he might have been heard a few games.
17:49
[SPEAKER_01]: I went and looked back.
17:50
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the highest in the last couple of years with 32, 33, so like yeah, super couples up there that one year that he went off.
17:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
17:58
[SPEAKER_00]: do I expect him, I expect him, if I draft JSN, I expect him to be a wider silver one in general, like a top pole receiver.
18:06
[SPEAKER_00]: A, I think he's pretty safe.
18:08
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if I project him to be a the number one.
18:13
[SPEAKER_01]: No, for sure.
18:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
18:15
[SPEAKER_01]: What about, okay, so another thing I was thinking about, what do you do when there is kind of the overhaul in the system?
18:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, Detroit's easy to project.
18:23
[SPEAKER_01]: They brought everyone back, you know, everything, you know, gives, getting everything a modern routine, it's just, that's a nice and neat.
18:31
[SPEAKER_01]: But then when we get either like a new QB, like we talked about Miami, that's a total overhaul.
18:35
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm trying to think of a team that had a big switch.
18:39
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we can talk about my eagles, like they lost their debris brown.
18:45
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm still projecting that same, like in the Malik Willis, Miami standpoint, I picked a different offense.
18:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Like I didn't pick Miami's offense for the last year to kind of start the model off of.
18:56
[SPEAKER_00]: I picked Green Bay, but I picked like a lesser version of Green Bay, basically brought it back to App for Philadelphia.
19:02
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm picking their offense still because with Nick Seriani, yes, they've had a new offensive coordinator every year, but like they've still kind of ran similar offense, they've
19:11
[SPEAKER_00]: hyper-targeted AJ Brown, DeGontas Smith, and Dallas Guard, like those are kind of their three steps.
19:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Now what are they going to do?
19:20
[SPEAKER_00]: I tend to play safe and just spread it out, like I think DeGontas Smith is going to probably be 24-25% target share, but it's always he says healthy, and then Goddard, he's a safe good option at Titan, that's going late too, but I have him at 16, and then like his
19:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Hollywood Brown probably not, like, we'll say, go on, get more in the passing.
19:43
[SPEAKER_00]: I just kind of spread it around almost like, because in these models, I don't want to take my shot.
19:49
[SPEAKER_00]: I want to be as safe as possible.
19:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Later on, I might have one, then I take my shots.
19:54
[SPEAKER_00]: And even as we know more from death charts, like they still got like 70, 80 people in a roster at the moment.
20:00
[SPEAKER_00]: So as it comes down, it's easier to spread across.
20:03
[SPEAKER_00]: And as we learn more from,
20:05
[SPEAKER_00]: reporting, we got to trust the good reporters and then they can choose that information on how we plot people in on target share, Russian share, etc.
20:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I want to talk about Philly, but the best way I try to think about your model is if we pick one team and then we bet the totals, I'd have a good chance to win a, but if we bet the whole season, I bet every total, I'm going to get tested.
20:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, if you're an expert on one team, I guarantee you could beat the model, I like
20:31
[SPEAKER_00]: If I talk to a diehard eagles fan, and that's a friend of mine like he might he probably will beat the model on the eagles but across league I'm pretty caught.
20:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, okay so Billy so Billy so weird because
20:43
[SPEAKER_01]: everyone killed their offense last year, right?
20:45
[SPEAKER_01]: Even though they started 3-0-4-0.
20:47
[SPEAKER_01]: But then you look at the stats.
20:48
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Dale and Hertz had the best passing season of his career.
20:51
[SPEAKER_01]: I think what 27 touchdowns, he's more touchdowns than he ever had.
20:54
[SPEAKER_01]: They didn't had no interceptions.
20:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Dallas, Goddard had 11 touchdowns.
20:58
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's like more than his career, previous seasons combined.
21:01
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's like all for all this shock or dismay and disgust.
21:06
[SPEAKER_01]: It was, you know, the rushing was the problem.
21:08
[SPEAKER_01]: But everyone was saying that they weren't passing it off.
21:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I don't, I just think age is round one at the ball.
21:16
[SPEAKER_00]: No, no, that works.
21:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Like that's, and then that creates a major narrative.
21:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Eagles are rushing team.
21:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I think that's where it comes down to.
21:26
[SPEAKER_00]: And they're great when you can use the threat of safeguard to then go deep, et cetera.
21:33
[SPEAKER_00]: It's, they were almost more, they became more of a, like, Dink and dunk team last year with the short passing.
21:40
[SPEAKER_00]: But there was way more like snap it and just get the ball out and just hope the wider shiver does it this season than there were at the past because it's almost like a running game.
21:49
[SPEAKER_00]: You're offensively what's that's good.
21:50
[SPEAKER_00]: They were banged up.
21:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Ideally offensive line is better.
21:54
[SPEAKER_00]: They're running more and then maybe they actually use the play action game for once.
21:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Jim and Hertz has not been great at that.
22:01
[SPEAKER_00]: You also never throws it over the middle so I'm hoping the new past game, the new offensive
22:09
[SPEAKER_00]: It pretty much was a slant or a go off for AJ Barrack.
22:12
[SPEAKER_00]: So I get his frustration, but we didn't know if we wanted to.
22:15
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm playing Madden or the guy in the 80s, Bradford, and as he slant or go, it's like, that's what, those are the ropes I want from him.
22:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
22:22
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's, I'd love to want to submit this year as, like, an Eagles fan and just, like, try to separate myself a little bit from that.
22:31
[SPEAKER_00]: The potential, he's been winning wide receiver, always been the second fiddle.
22:37
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not saying he's Jason, but like, I think about when DK Metcalf left Seattle, Jason became the guy.
22:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Jason was great-guided to your river beforehand, and now he's just full guy, and he carried it.
22:50
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I'm not saying if they're going to be the same, I wouldn't bet on it, but like, you could easily make that in person, I wouldn't.
22:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I immediately wanted to pour water on it, but then I thought Seattle, Seattle was actually very run heavy
23:05
[SPEAKER_01]: So everyone thinks they pass because of JSM, but no, they ran the ball at the time, just not that effectively, and then when they did the pass, they passed the JSM.
23:12
[SPEAKER_01]: So Philly, Devonti Smith, I'm not there, or yes or no, yeah, I don't know if I haven't done enough kind of analysis, but just quickly looking at your Philly model, it kind of stood out to me.
23:22
[SPEAKER_01]: It was Mackay, 11, 11% target here.
23:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, because everyone's saying, you know, on he's taking the Devente Smith role, Philly only uses two-eyed receiver sets.
23:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.
23:32
[SPEAKER_01]: It's only two-eyed receivers involved.
23:34
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're that wide receiver, too, you know, that is a nice natural role.
23:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Is that, is that too low?
23:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Or do you think maybe Dante's in Wix is starts as a wide receiver, too?
23:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's more that.
23:45
[SPEAKER_00]: If you think about it this way, maybe you have to be in a season wicks is more in that 15% range, lemons probably more in that 5% to 8% range by the end of the season.
23:54
[SPEAKER_00]: I think lemon could be a great.
23:57
[SPEAKER_00]: not lead, but he could give you some valuable upside as a flex option later in the season and you probably don't want to start with the beginning of the season.
24:05
[SPEAKER_00]: That's kind of where the averages in season long come out where somebody could be 11% target share, but if they do nothing in the beginning and then get 20% your last 10 weeks like that average is out to almost 10%.
24:18
[SPEAKER_00]: If you look at it that way it's like, okay, I want to start that 20%.
24:23
[SPEAKER_00]: versus starting it like I must rather start someone who gets 20% for 10 games of someone who gets 10% for the whole season.
24:30
[SPEAKER_00]: That's more where like the average is out.
24:32
[SPEAKER_00]: So with rookies it is, they're always they do tend to be lower because you kind of expect them to work up.
24:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Because also the big thing for me is like how he rose with the best he ever in the game, right?
24:44
[SPEAKER_01]: If he moved up the trade line and lose a deep round out of the way.
24:47
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like that and it is enough for me, even though I don't really like feeling for fantasy because they play slow, it's run heavy, they don't go for the big plays, they don't risk turnovers and they got a great defense.
24:58
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's just like they're playing to win the game on my week.
25:01
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and that's somebody that tank this big to me is interesting to me as like a more of like the best fall play because if their defense plays super well,
25:13
[SPEAKER_00]: The offense puts up two touchdowns in the first half.
25:15
[SPEAKER_00]: You could see a lot more of the games in hand.
25:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's just hand the ball off to the HB for the last three quarters.
25:21
[SPEAKER_00]: For the last two quarters of the game, quarter and a half.
25:24
[SPEAKER_00]: And maybe breaks one with a good offensive line.
25:27
[SPEAKER_00]: That is somebody that does intrigue me in like a basketball format for the Eagles type.
25:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I like him in redrapped too.
25:34
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, because sparkly is kind of getting older.
25:36
[SPEAKER_01]: He always did a problem previously in his career and that often just built for, you know, running back to just step right in and have a huge role.
25:44
[SPEAKER_01]: OK, not filling, not needles.
25:46
[SPEAKER_01]: A couple of the other teams I want to talk about.
25:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's just go quickly, stand Fran, because I remember one, the CMC depth that everyone's talking about.
25:52
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not drafting him.
25:54
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just baked into the formula, but doesn't need to be baked into his ADP.
25:58
[SPEAKER_01]: Quickly, what do you do with CMC?
26:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Are you taking him?
26:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Because you're kind of the guy that would take him.
26:04
[SPEAKER_00]: I would take him.
26:04
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, what did this work?
26:06
[SPEAKER_00]: You have a 15, 50% chance he says healthy for the season.
26:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Whatever he stays healthy for a season, he's a top-free runback.
26:17
[SPEAKER_00]: So, 50-50% Jancing in a top-free runningback in a middle-first round, I kind of like that.
26:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I get it.
26:26
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just difficult and you can see why the season would be like, ah, that's more safe.
26:31
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just he could be up there.
26:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I...
26:35
[SPEAKER_00]: From a volume standpoint, the four and a half running backs are just studs to me.
26:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Change quickly in the half.
26:44
[SPEAKER_00]: That ate that.
26:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Robinson, give B. John Robinson, Jamir Gives, Taylor, J.T.
26:51
[SPEAKER_00]: from Indianapolis and McApper.
26:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, they're always going to be high in projections because they always get about 55 to 60% rush
27:03
[SPEAKER_00]: 10 plus.
27:04
[SPEAKER_00]: For Gibbs, it's like 15 to 12, but, saying the grabs it.
27:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Honestly, CMC, too.
27:11
[SPEAKER_00]: So, like, they're used so much in the past game, and if you think Kiddle is not going to be as healthy, running back some tight-end, it's tend to seal targets from each other.
27:20
[SPEAKER_00]: So, there's more CMC's grab.
27:22
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just whether it's going to be healthy.
27:24
[SPEAKER_01]: for sure just so quickly you guys if you're watching if you like you know what we're talking about basically football and have to do not just give us a like or you know drop a comment if you using Brian's a model telling who he's crazy aqua and we can argue in the comments but so I was looking at San Fran because Ricky Piersall is also just kind of one of my guys and then I was like whoa you had him high I think like more than a bouquet and I was like okay that makes me kind of feel good because I think Ricky Piersall's so mispriced as like what the
27:52
[SPEAKER_01]: considering party loves to throw deep.
27:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Pierce all have like a hundred yards to the first three games.
27:57
[SPEAKER_01]: That's it.
27:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Fran offense is always top five.
27:59
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you're predicting a little fade from kiddo, not, you know, in CMC, if Pierce all can say healthy, I think you'd be a top five wide receiver.
28:07
[SPEAKER_00]: I wouldn't go top five, but I think he's a great value.
28:09
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like specifically because they're offense, it's calcium and it's always good.
28:16
[SPEAKER_00]: CMC gets hurt, you plug in Garendo, you plug in Jordan James, like you just plug in whoever and they have performed.
28:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Kind of same thing with the wider seabers.
28:25
[SPEAKER_00]: You had Joanne Jennings go off for a little, you've seen, what was it, Kendrick Boren with Matt Jones?
28:30
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it was like the issue with,
28:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Like I currently have him at like a 16% target share equal to my cat.
28:38
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's just where are all those targets that it's normally kind of varied by kiddo and the capary and then previously it was IU was 20 like low 20s.
28:49
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just I don't it's hard to predict that offense.
28:53
[SPEAKER_00]: It's Christian Kirk going to be good is to Sean Shribley.
28:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Some people love him.
28:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Some people said he's in the world.
28:57
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to drag like I like.
29:00
[SPEAKER_00]: that one I need to keep kind of adjust and and I will like this is obviously just the first version of the model I'll keep it adjusting as I learn more but like I need to adjust when I learn more but right now I have events and peers all at the same at 16% target share kit all at like 17 and the gap here at 18
29:18
[SPEAKER_01]: I forgot about Evans because Evans at 33 to hamstrings like he's he's just out for me.
29:23
[SPEAKER_01]: I just think there's a world where PSOL is getting this crazy target chair, parties one of the best default growers, and like even back to CMC it's like okay yeah 50 50, but I think it's
29:33
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like a two-faced coin where it's just going to be the bad one because it's just U30 and it's yards for carry last season.
29:40
[SPEAKER_01]: It was like 3.8.
29:42
[SPEAKER_01]: If you look at all the top running backs, like 18.5.8, Derek Henry's like 5.2, Gibbs is 5.4 something and it's so drastically different.
29:52
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he did reach a different part of his career and all that crazy usage from last season is going to catch up like it does.
29:59
[SPEAKER_01]: I just think there's this giant vacuum that can get filled and if you're something to say, how can fill a bit of it?
30:04
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's got lead winning a field.
30:07
[SPEAKER_00]: The only thing I will say is Trent Williams was out for a lot of last season.
30:11
[SPEAKER_00]: So I agree in like the with what you're saying, I'd be kind of mean and hard on the back up running back.
30:18
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just who's going to be that back up too, which is difficult to get.
30:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't who it who who who is even the backups there right now.
30:26
[SPEAKER_00]: It's by Jordan James.
30:27
[SPEAKER_00]: They did draft the Klan black from Indiana, but like I know in the draft day it was like this is one of the biggest reaches we've ever had and then I've had a draft like type
30:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, and after that, so two of the teams I really want to talk about Jacksonville and the bearers, this because they both got these great OCs and we've seen these kind of generous OCs take a kind of half season two thirds for the team to adapt to the new system and both teams like finish the season on a tear.
30:59
[SPEAKER_01]: I think like the Jagscore 3435 and like five and last seven bear scores like 37 or more and like four and last five.
31:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Both offense looked like they're primed to take off.
31:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Trevor Lawrence was awesome, Caleb was awesome.
31:12
[SPEAKER_01]: I didn't actually get to look at the Jacksonville model yet, but I was like not the bear.
31:16
[SPEAKER_01]: It seemed like it was a little muted.
31:19
[SPEAKER_00]: It's muted because who's the main guy.
31:23
[SPEAKER_00]: If you find the main guy, like if you were to tell me like QB rankings, Caleb Williams was number three.
31:31
[SPEAKER_01]: He in yours, he is?
31:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes.
31:35
[SPEAKER_00]: So like, he's not muted because he is, it's just the rest of them are muted because like, food the guy.
31:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Three, that's enough.
31:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
31:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
31:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Not muted.
31:42
[SPEAKER_01]: No, that's perfect.
31:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Because that's it.
31:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
31:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Get Kayla because you don't know the guy is get the only guy that isn't, has to be the guy.
31:48
[SPEAKER_00]: And Trevor Lawrence is similar.
31:49
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he's at eight, but like, I almost, I like his value a little bit more because like he was rushing a little bit more at the end of the season.
31:57
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a nice dressing touch chance.
31:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
31:59
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's, that was kind of muted because,
32:02
[SPEAKER_00]: he'd really flipped the switch at the end like I'm a big fan of Lawrence and I'm using last year's data doesn't fully encapsulate but it's for Chicago who's going to be the main guy I think like love love love loving like currently I have love Lynn Rome in burden all at 17% architecture if one of them gets to 25% they are
32:28
[SPEAKER_00]: in that office.
32:28
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just if they do.
32:30
[SPEAKER_00]: I I can't predict that I'm not going to bet on it.
32:33
[SPEAKER_00]: So at the moment it's they're all me.
32:35
[SPEAKER_01]: So what is your approach then for drafting Chicago players he said Caleb free.
32:39
[SPEAKER_01]: I love that because you get the wrong thing He's probably going to do that for 1,030 touchdown and he's got all these weapons, right?
32:45
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's the Ben Johnson, right?
32:47
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's like Caleb, but then even put the running backs in so running backs wide receivers tight ends like based on a kind of ADP value Who who who who do you want?
32:56
[SPEAKER_00]: I want swift must he because he's probably the safest
33:00
[SPEAKER_00]: even if he and if monungai ends up eclipsing him and monungai gets like more the Gibbs to the david mapping role like Swift is still going to pay off it in that Montgomery role where he's being drafted.
33:12
[SPEAKER_00]: He's probably to say this I like I mean pill bones pretty good value I think to at the moment.
33:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Killing Williams is still kind of has that hype behind him as the number one of raw pig feet start like he's still I think Swift is a guy who'd be bored a little bit more down on
33:29
[SPEAKER_00]: If you want to take a chance on McLean, I could easily win you a season.
33:34
[SPEAKER_00]: If he gets the 20 to 25% targets here, I think he could win you a season.
33:39
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't hate that.
33:43
[SPEAKER_00]: I probably, I would probably go between the past Petr's Lovelin and Bird and then Rome, just kind of the way their games played.
33:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Rome seems to be a guide that will go for like 120 and 2 touchdowns and then be like
33:59
[SPEAKER_00]: It's burning, I think, burdens more like the six or seven for 70 each week, and that will be your thoughts down here and there, and it's a little bit more trustworthy from the way I think, but I could easily be wrong.
34:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
34:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, other than this, I love looking at what happened in the playoff, I'd have to get 25 targets in the two games.
34:19
[SPEAKER_01]: The game was clearly going to him.
34:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Ben Johnson loves the tight end.
34:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Sam LaPorta, rookie tight end one.
34:24
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just I want to part of that offense.
34:26
[SPEAKER_01]: OK, let's talk to Axonville.
34:28
[SPEAKER_01]: So what was run past split for that bear is Jacksonville?
34:31
[SPEAKER_01]: You said you'd lean Lawrence a little bit over Caleb.
34:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Is that because you didn't lean Cohen, it's more pass oriented in Ben Johnson likes to run the ball?
34:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Like a business and a small mitigating factor.
34:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Now they're both like 53%, 53.5% rust the past, like they're both almost equal, and they're rust the past percent.
34:48
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just their efficiency.
34:50
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Jacksonville was a little bit more efficient through the air last season, and Chicago was a little bit more through the ground.
34:57
[SPEAKER_00]: No, O-line would probably let's shut that a great O-line.
35:00
[SPEAKER_00]: So that loud track.
35:02
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I mean, Jacksonville's kind of the same thing is if you can pick it one of the guys is 25% they could win you a season.
35:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Like it's Brian Thomas goes back to 25% great.
35:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, Jacobi Myers was a start on that team for a little.
35:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I know, but Parker Washington in the playoff was a great one.
35:18
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, Parker Washington, you know, I had no idea what to do.
35:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, Breton's strange is another one of those late round tight ends that I don't hate getting, just because I
35:28
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a good offense.
35:29
[SPEAKER_00]: You can, he's want to like the best full guys.
35:31
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like all right, if I ended up with Trevor Lawrence, Brennan Strings is like a nice little attach him on at the end of your draft and you've got to stack.
35:39
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're saying, essentially you to boy the the the the weapons like super flex your dream setup is kind of Caleb Trevor based on where you get them 80 P. I would love that best fall.
35:50
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not avoiding it.
35:51
[SPEAKER_00]: You just kind of take a chance and at one draft.
35:53
[SPEAKER_00]: You just kind of diversify a little bit season long.
35:58
[SPEAKER_00]: I haven't, I mean, if we still have time, I haven't really chosen the guy, probably jacobie because he's the cheapest at the moment and I think he'll still all at least get a 15% target chair.
36:08
[SPEAKER_00]: the running back to what interests me, like, is all this right, Regas gonna get a big role, or is it gonna be bashed, I'll just kill on it.
36:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Because, say, I looked at, though, I actually did look at the dags.
36:19
[SPEAKER_01]: I forgot to look at the dags for dags.
36:20
[SPEAKER_01]: You have Chris Rodriguez with the higher rushing is here than Tutan, that kind of was like, but Tutan, I think Tutan and I have way higher in past game.
36:25
[SPEAKER_00]: No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no
36:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's not it's not crazy and like his look went Allen gun and it's like, are they going to be a 30 or 33, but it just it was it was it was not alarming, but it was like, okay, because I'd more of a Chris Rodriguez and Tudon got Tudon was like 3.7 yards were carry, you know, he's got the speed, but is he going to pass block and who was late, who is Chris are, reges his coach in college, Liam Cohen.
36:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
36:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so it's just I, you know, I just were Tudon's going, I feel like he's being drafted as ceiling.
36:59
[SPEAKER_01]: Whereas like this could be like a taste brown and who was it that the he was a former Bill's running back but since he got No, not be Ryan he was oh, but anyway, but ever that he'd be the one and then and taste brown and the taste brown is from the get because the the guy wasn't very good.
37:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
37:17
[SPEAKER_00]: No, I mean it's valid.
37:19
[SPEAKER_00]: It's It's a guess like we're all I like to I think I he's a better running back in front of Regas.
37:26
[SPEAKER_00]: I get the love for him like
37:29
[SPEAKER_00]: the bread crumbs are kind of leading more towards rubbery gifts.
37:32
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just bread riggas have never really done much and passing.
37:34
[SPEAKER_00]: And if I'm gonna do the late ram, like not zero RGB, but like these are a few of the running backs I wanna kind of grab.
37:42
[SPEAKER_00]: If I'm doing more of a zero RGB, bro, which is just take that, get stud-wide receivers and then just grab one up.
37:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Don't really care who just whoever get a better value on grab, and hope that one of them kicks off
37:58
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, let's see one more team.
38:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's see the giants because their the volatility is just off the charts, right.
38:04
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not what you do with them, right?
38:06
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, even putting neighbors aside, scattered was crazy, but right, he could he could be he to be what a top five or any back or he could, you know, break his head and we too.
38:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Jackson Dart same thing.
38:18
[SPEAKER_01]: How do you project out he project a team that's.
38:21
[SPEAKER_01]: complete the most volatile team ever like based on fantasy is that you entered the injuredness tops floor ceiling stuff.
38:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I think it's one of the more telling things is it's the league neighbors play as you expect in a probably at least get a 25% target share.
38:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I have him projected a 18% because I don't think he's starting to see some healthy.
38:40
[SPEAKER_00]: I could be wrong, but like here I'll update it as I know more.
38:44
[SPEAKER_00]: They have like
38:45
[SPEAKER_00]: I back up veteran-wide achiever, Darnell Mooney, Odo Beckham, like, hey, so I'm juju-ju Swiss juicer, like, I don't know.
38:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Calvin Austin, they saw it.
38:55
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he'll act to the game.
38:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, like, he's more of a say for him in, like, slayton still on the team.
39:02
[SPEAKER_00]: He just tend to, yeah, he tends to just get 12% target chair and a few bombs each season.
39:08
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, how are you approaching the giants?
39:11
[SPEAKER_01]: They face fantasy, big money draft.
39:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Are you tasting anyone?
39:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Because darling, feeling is great.
39:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Is probably maybe the most realistic to hit?
39:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
39:20
[SPEAKER_00]: It probably be dark, and then I really love Tracy at the end of the draft.
39:24
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just like a, I need a backup running back to which I'm upside.
39:27
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Tracy's great for that.
39:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Cam could he could post after three plays and you have Tracy use has performed when he's given the volume.
39:39
[SPEAKER_00]: He's like, I think he's a league average running back.
39:41
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you give him heavy volume, he'll provide like it's just one of those situations.
39:45
[SPEAKER_00]: And they do love to kind of feed their running backs.
39:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no Tracy's, I mean, like Tracy's one of the most must draft backups you could find.
39:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, quickly, actually, one other team I looked at that kind of made me scared to get them Denver just because I think you had Dobbins and I already had like 30% rush shares.
40:05
[SPEAKER_01]: I've been, oh my god, like why would I ever draft any of those guys?
40:10
[SPEAKER_01]: I know you guys, Dobbins is going to get hurt, but it's like that, that's scared the shit out of me.
40:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think Harvey is people are so low on Harvey, and I'm starting to kind of be up on him.
40:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think Harvey's still gonna be in the past game.
40:25
[SPEAKER_00]: JK Dobbins, I think what I worry about him is if that rookie Jonah Coleman, who we've heard a little bit about, I think he would more replace Dobbins and that role than he would replace Harvey.
40:35
[SPEAKER_00]: So Harvey, I trust out of that running back for the most.
40:39
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just like they have a bunch of solid wide receivers.
40:43
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's another one that's like, is Jalen Waddle?
40:46
[SPEAKER_00]: There's been now, everyone says, oh, the Sean Peyton Joker role.
40:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, Jalen Waddle's in that.
40:52
[SPEAKER_00]: It used to be, Evan Ingraham was gonna be in it.
40:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Last season, RJ Harvey was gonna be the guy.
40:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Whenever you hear that, it's probably none of them, but just that role who knows, but there's a,
41:06
[SPEAKER_00]: they have a bunch of good players that like it's hard to pick and choose who's going to be the guy.
41:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, Troy, I've been doing some Denver stuff today.
41:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Troy Franklin, guess how many targets you have last season?
41:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Don't you?
41:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, how to good amount.
41:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, he was up there.
41:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Don't you tell I guess.
41:20
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it like 16, 17% targets here.
41:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
41:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
41:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
41:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
41:24
[SPEAKER_00]: 104 targets.
41:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
41:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
41:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
41:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
41:28
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, that's crazy.
41:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Cause that's doing some water, some sudden stuff.
41:31
[SPEAKER_01]: He had, he led the team in Red Zone Target.
41:33
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think he had 18 and said 17.
41:35
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, that was crazy.
41:36
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, so, you know, we, yeah, well, you know, you got water sudden.
41:40
[SPEAKER_01]: They like Troy Franklin.
41:41
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they stood up Patrick Bryant.
41:43
[SPEAKER_01]: I Marvin Nym's still kind of like, and it's, it's tough, right?
41:47
[SPEAKER_00]: So, okay, so lastly, so in these crowded offenses, I wish we'd talk more camp-off, but who'd I just a book of love?
41:54
[SPEAKER_01]: You don't?
41:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you have a, would you maybe try and take multiple wide receivers like Jackson, you take two or would you just ignore the wide receiver kind of room all together and take somewhere where you know the targets are going to, you know, be going in coming in best well I'd like to kind of target these offenses because you can get a good amount of
42:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Not to say get value, but you have a bunch of options to attach to a QV.
42:18
[SPEAKER_00]: So, in Best Boy, I like to kind of target these QVs, and then worst case I miss out on Sutton, Waddle, I can pick up Franklin later, I can pick up Evan Ingraham, I can pick up Troutman, I can even pick up Pat Ryan if I really wanted to.
42:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, there's just so many options in Best Boy to attach somebody to your quarterback.
42:36
[SPEAKER_00]: In season long I do just, I try to kind of take a bet at the beginning of the season and say like who do I think will win and then you kind of wear a lose off that you can diversify if you want, but I try not I don't want to go heavy I don't want to you know season long I don't want to bet that
42:54
[SPEAKER_00]: You kind of limit your off side if you just draft two or three of them and say, oh, like, one of them will be great.
42:59
[SPEAKER_00]: But like, yeah, then you have to take that one each week.
43:02
[SPEAKER_00]: You have to do that.
43:04
[SPEAKER_00]: You're taking up three roster spots that you could have upside elsewhere.
43:08
[SPEAKER_00]: The more upside play is hope you get the one if not, you might get the one on another offense or you might have a tire on Tracy on your team that.
43:16
[SPEAKER_00]: could bust out if can't scatter, but or someone out like, I don't like to go fully in because what if Denver's offensive sucks too, then you're you're free badly.
43:25
[SPEAKER_00]: So I try to kind of diversify and add aspect and only get one of them.
43:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Best fall, I don't mind as much of getting a few.
43:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, cool.
43:34
[SPEAKER_01]: All right.
43:34
[SPEAKER_01]: This is great.
43:35
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe we're going to have to do this again and cover some more teams because I mean, honestly, you're if you're watching this is going to be one of the, this is one of the better podcasts knowledge there is right Brian knows all this stuff.
43:46
[SPEAKER_01]: I tried to keep up, but so quickly, you know, this has been a fantasy NFL today for these presentation.
43:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Make sure you check out our draft guide score.
43:54
[SPEAKER_01]: These are the links in the description.
43:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Don't forget to subscribe to the fantasy NFL today podcast.
44:00
[SPEAKER_01]: where we listen and then check us out on Twitter.
44:02
[SPEAKER_01]: So Brian, thanks a lot.
44:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Any last, any last, anything that you didn't get out that you're saving a little nugget?
44:08
[SPEAKER_00]: No, now, I'll be continuing up there as we learn more.
44:10
[SPEAKER_00]: So you'll, we'll get up, takes throughout the season as we get closer to throughout the.
44:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's just a lie, right?
44:16
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is, this is ramp up time.
44:17
[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll start at the beginning of the mountain and we'll be on Everest by then.
44:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, all right, thanks a lot.
44:22
[SPEAKER_01]: And hopefully you guys watch and enjoy this help.