Latest / Trumponomics / Live from Davos: The Real Conversations Around Trump's Return

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Live from Davos: The Real Conversations Around Trump's Return · Trumponomics

0:02
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The Golden Age of
0:09
Speaker 1: America begins right now. I will very simply put America first.
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Speaker 2: Welcome to trump Andomics, the Bloomberg podcast that looks at
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Speaker 2: the economic world of Donald Trump, how he's already shaped
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Speaker 2: the global economy and what on earth is going to
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Speaker 2: happen next. I'm Stephanie Flanners, head of Government and Economics
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Speaker 2: at Bloomberg, and this week we're recording Trump Andomics in
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Speaker 2: the Swiss Alps, in the Bloomberg DeVos House at the
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Speaker 2: World Economic Forum, And as we speak, we're looking at
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Speaker 2: pictures from Washington. We're recording on Monday, and the second
0:56
Speaker 2: inauguration of Donald Trump is getting underway. So we did
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Speaker 2: I think it was fitting given the timing that in
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Speaker 2: this episode we asked the question, is Davos learning the
1:07
Speaker 2: art of the deal? You know, not so long ago,
1:09
Speaker 2: the billionaires, the heads of state, the tech moguls who
1:14
Speaker 2: come here every January for the World Economic Forum, they
1:16
Speaker 2: thought they were done with Donald Trump, and now they
1:20
Speaker 2: seem to be pretty meekly falling into line.
1:23
Speaker 3: I'm super fired up for the future. It's going to
1:27
Speaker 3: be very exciting.
1:28
Speaker 1: As the President said, We're going to have a golden age.
1:30
Speaker 1: I'm actually very optimistic this time. He seems to have
1:33
Speaker 1: a lot of energy around.
1:35
Speaker 4: Reducing regulation, and if I can help him do that,
1:38
Speaker 4: I'm going to help him. I mean, seeing Donald Trump
1:41
Speaker 4: get get up after getting shot.
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Speaker 1: In the face and pump his fist in.
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Speaker 4: The air with the American flag, it's like hard to
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Speaker 4: not get kind of emotional about that spirit.
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Speaker 2: And I'm wondering what the implications are for everyone else
1:55
Speaker 2: and for markets, for money, for investors, for the broader world.
2:00
Speaker 2: And I've got a stellar cast here to discuss these issues,
2:04
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's editor in chief, John Micklethwaite, and I'm very glad
2:07
Speaker 2: that you made it this year. You were human ill
2:10
Speaker 2: last year and lots of us had to pretend to
2:12
Speaker 2: be you, which didn't go well at all. We have
2:15
Speaker 2: Jenny Leonard white House reporter who focuses on international economic
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Speaker 2: issues and has been the first to an awful lot
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Speaker 2: of trade stories and policies ever since she came to Bloomberg.
2:26
Speaker 2: And Bradstone, who's now editor of Bloomberg business Week, but
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Speaker 2: before that was Senior Executive editor for Global Technology at
2:34
Speaker 2: Bloomberg News and the author of four books very relevant
2:37
Speaker 2: to our discussions today, including Amazon Unbound, Jeff Bezos and
2:41
Speaker 2: The Invention of a Global Empire Looking Around, and it
2:45
Speaker 2: was written up rather nicely in an introductory story that
2:50
Speaker 2: Bloomberg News wrote, You'd have to say the movers and
2:52
Speaker 2: shakers descending on the World Economic Forum here in Devils
2:56
Speaker 2: this week have already been paying their dues to the
3:00
Speaker 2: new president, realigning their priorities to better fit his somewhat
3:05
Speaker 2: unreconstructed America First Agenda. We had a great quote from
3:09
Speaker 2: Lloyd Blankvine, the former head of Goldman Sachs. He said
3:13
Speaker 2: he was reminded of what happened when Napoleon escaped from Elba,
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Speaker 2: and the French newspapers changed their tune pretty dramatically in
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Speaker 2: eighteen fifteen. They started off, in fact, the Monitor started
3:25
Speaker 2: off characterizing Napoleon as a monster, but by the time
3:28
Speaker 2: he got close to Paris, they announced that his Majesty
3:32
Speaker 2: was arriving. And it definitely has sort of felt a
3:35
Speaker 2: bit like that, And of course Donald Trump himself would
3:37
Speaker 2: love the comparison with Napoleon. So let me start with you, Brad,
3:40
Speaker 2: because there has been so much focus on how Silicon
3:44
Speaker 2: Valley has sort of turned on a dime with this
3:47
Speaker 2: president and some of the key figures like Mark Zuckerberg
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Speaker 2: in particular. But maybe what's changed it is just they've
3:53
Speaker 2: been able to show their true colors.
3:55
Speaker 3: Everything has changed.
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Speaker 4: Let's go about eight years ago and all the CEOs
4:00
Speaker 4: in to the White House looking like they had some
4:01
Speaker 4: bad fish the night before, and there was Tim Cook
4:05
Speaker 4: and Jeff Bezos and Cheryl Sandberg.
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Speaker 3: Zuckerberg didn't even go.
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Speaker 4: Elon didn't go, and then withdrew from the Presidential Council
4:12
Speaker 4: a couple of weeks later when Trump withdrew from the
4:15
Speaker 4: Paris Climate Accords, and so what happened? I mean, they
4:19
Speaker 4: felt unjustly persecuted during the Biden years, either through the
4:23
Speaker 4: anti trust agenda or the regulation of crypto, maybe a
4:27
Speaker 4: little bit of the anti tech mood in the media.
4:30
Speaker 4: And they have come out of the last four years
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Speaker 4: in some ways you know, maga and it's startling.
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Speaker 3: But look, credit Trump a little bit.
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Speaker 4: He opened the tent large enough to make room for
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Speaker 4: all the tech leaders and they see a kind of
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Speaker 4: common cause with Trump on crypto, on anti trust, on
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Speaker 4: Mark and Dreesen calls it raising the tech flag building
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Speaker 4: acquiring investing, and I think you know, there's optimism, but
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Speaker 4: there's also opportunity.
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Speaker 3: And they know that by closing up.
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Speaker 4: To Trump and contributing to the inauguration and being up there.
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Speaker 3: In the day is today, that that is good for business.
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Speaker 2: I mean, you make the point though, that you know
5:11
Speaker 2: they have shifted in the last eight years. It's not
5:15
Speaker 2: just that they're sort of suddenly waking up to the
5:17
Speaker 2: reality of a second Trump term. So how much were
5:20
Speaker 2: you surprised by any of what's happened in the last time.
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Speaker 4: Absolutely shocked, because you know, there did seem to be
5:28
Speaker 4: a sense of legitimate resistance eight years ago.
5:30
Speaker 3: But the world has changed. And Trump, as you know,
5:33
Speaker 3: as I said, you know, to his credit, he's evolved.
5:35
Speaker 3: Now there's not a lot of consistency.
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Speaker 4: I mean, he was the one who raised the idea
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Speaker 4: of banning TikTok and has just given it a reprieve.
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Speaker 4: He was anti crypto and just launched the Trump coin
5:46
Speaker 4: and the Melennia coin to great enrichment of the family.
5:50
Speaker 4: So he's seeing some of the political and frankly the
5:53
Speaker 4: financial opportunities of being big Trump, being.
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Speaker 3: Big tech, big Trump. I think, well, that might be
5:59
Speaker 3: even more appropriate.
6:01
Speaker 2: Obviously financially, and that's a big part of all the
6:03
Speaker 2: discussions around here. We have seen a lot of bedding
6:07
Speaker 2: on and moving of money in line with the Trump agenda,
6:12
Speaker 2: not just bitcoin, but price of oil, growth, stocks, the dollar.
6:17
Speaker 2: They've all gone up there about eight percent. I was
6:19
Speaker 2: looking at it this morning, since Donald Trump was elected,
6:23
Speaker 2: and when I look at what the impact has already
6:25
Speaker 2: been on countries like the UK, the big increase in
6:30
Speaker 2: bond yield that's gone with this, you know, it feels
6:34
Speaker 2: like already before he's done anything, any country with underlying weaknesses,
6:39
Speaker 2: any government with underlying weaknesses, is having those exacerbated or
6:44
Speaker 2: highlighted just by the fact of the Trump agenda, and
6:49
Speaker 2: they're on the back foot. How would you say the
6:51
Speaker 2: world has changed in particularly the sort of foreign policy
6:54
Speaker 2: and financial markets.
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Speaker 1: What Brad said about tech is actually quite true of
7:00
Speaker 1: business in general, and not just linked to Trump. I mean,
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Speaker 1: I think if you look around the world, compared with
7:06
Speaker 1: say eight years ago, business people everywhere since both more
7:11
Speaker 1: fear and more opportunity in their relations with government. The
7:15
Speaker 1: idea when I first started coming to devoce that business
7:18
Speaker 1: was this wonderful thing that existed outside the realms of government,
7:23
Speaker 1: and it was all about kind of doing good and
7:25
Speaker 1: all that sort of stuff. Now business people realize that
7:28
Speaker 1: you can both get clobbered by government, and that applies
7:31
Speaker 1: from Trump, but it also applies to the European Union
7:33
Speaker 1: and lots of other places. But also it's a chance
7:36
Speaker 1: for enrichment, as you know, TikTok is suddenly discovering and
7:39
Speaker 1: lots of other people that people in the Midwest now
7:41
Speaker 1: will be thinking, well, maybe we can make money out
7:43
Speaker 1: of tariffs if they come our way. There'll be people
7:46
Speaker 1: you know around here thinking about different things that they
7:49
Speaker 1: might be able together if Europe puts up bigger barriers
7:53
Speaker 1: and so on. So there's both kind of fear and
7:55
Speaker 1: greed are driving business and government together, I think generally.
7:58
Speaker 1: But on this specific question you said, you can see
8:01
Speaker 1: it everywhere. You know, Britain has suddenly got somewhat sort
8:04
Speaker 1: of freaked out by a kind of semi Liz Trust moment.
8:08
Speaker 1: You can argue how much of this is Rachel We've
8:11
Speaker 1: spoilt also, you know, and how much of it is
8:13
Speaker 1: just the simple fact that Trump has arrived and everything
8:16
Speaker 1: has been thrown into greater kind of impact either good
8:22
Speaker 1: or bad. And I think that's almost almost a way
8:25
Speaker 1: to look at Trump at the moment. He's sort of
8:27
Speaker 1: throw every weakness or every strength is somehow being massively exaggerated.
8:31
Speaker 1: Trump is always about exaggerating.
8:33
Speaker 2: And when it comes to the UK, I mean if
8:35
Speaker 2: you look at actually the sort of gap in borrowing
8:37
Speaker 2: costs between the UK and the US has barely moved,
8:40
Speaker 2: and yet all of the pressure, none of the pressure
8:43
Speaker 2: in the UK has all been on the chancellor for
8:45
Speaker 2: reasons that sort of pre date that change. Well, I
8:49
Speaker 2: want it in a little bit good defense. I'm just
8:52
Speaker 2: looking at the spread on as you'd expect any Bloomberg imparted,
8:57
Speaker 2: we will get onto some of these kind of broader
9:00
Speaker 2: packs of basic things like the cost of money actually
9:02
Speaker 2: going up along.
9:03
Speaker 1: With all good news.
9:05
Speaker 2: But Jenny, obviously a lot of the big news we've
9:09
Speaker 2: seen have been trying to game out how serious Donald
9:14
Speaker 2: Trump is on his agenda for tariffs, what it will
9:17
Speaker 2: mean for different aspects of the global economy and different companies. So,
9:22
Speaker 2: since you're usually the first to find out these things,
9:25
Speaker 2: what's your sense so far?
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Speaker 5: Well, I would also say Washington has seen a big
9:31
Speaker 5: shift since the last strund term on this. First of all,
9:35
Speaker 5: they're all accepting the outcome that he's president again. But
9:39
Speaker 5: we also see both parties coming together wanting to do
9:43
Speaker 5: things together, which I think eight years ago we wouldn't
9:46
Speaker 5: have imagined them talking about, oh, we need to actually
9:48
Speaker 5: do something on the border, because that played into the
9:51
Speaker 5: election outcome. Maybe Trump has a point here on trade,
9:55
Speaker 5: on tariffs. They're talking about tariffs in a very different
9:59
Speaker 5: way than eight years ago. The GOP that's in the
10:01
Speaker 5: Congress right now, I think has many more Trump allies
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Speaker 5: than they did traditional free trade republicans eight years ago.
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Speaker 5: You know, we see TikTok is a massive shift from
10:12
Speaker 5: a bipartisan, massively bipartisan legislation that passed saying this is
10:17
Speaker 5: a national security threat, it has to be banned. All
10:20
Speaker 5: of a sudden. Mike Walls, the incoming National Security Advisor, says,
10:24
Speaker 5: this is a great app. I think I wish I
10:25
Speaker 5: had it on my phone. That kind of shift is
10:28
Speaker 5: what we're seeing right now. Doge is another example. This
10:32
Speaker 5: is all things that we're seeing right now, and I
10:34
Speaker 5: think when the rubber meets the road, we're going to
10:36
Speaker 5: see if this actually sticks. I am a little bit
10:39
Speaker 5: skeptical that everyone in the Republican Party will go along
10:42
Speaker 5: with broad global tariffs hitting every country, every import. I
10:46
Speaker 5: also think we've seen this from spending discussions in Washington.
10:50
Speaker 5: When it comes to cutting your base in your district
10:54
Speaker 5: or whatever project you care about, you know, they might
10:57
Speaker 5: throw a fit. And I think that we'll see when
10:59
Speaker 5: the rubber meets the road if they're actually that far
11:02
Speaker 5: along in their shrift.
11:03
Speaker 2: Well, we have had and you've been involved with some
11:05
Speaker 2: of them. I mean, there have already been sort of
11:07
Speaker 2: competing narratives coming out of the administration, precisely on tariffs,
11:12
Speaker 2: because you have a sort of grown up view supposedly
11:14
Speaker 2: that says, oh, they're going to be targeted. There was
11:17
Speaker 2: a Washington Post story that talked about that, and then
11:19
Speaker 2: quite a lot of pushback that seems to have come
11:21
Speaker 2: from even from Donald Trump himself.
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Speaker 5: Yes, I will say we'll probably see a repeat of
11:30
Speaker 5: what we saw eight years ago on the economic front
11:32
Speaker 5: and the battle on the inside on tariffs. We have
11:35
Speaker 5: two camps. Largely, even though Scott Besson and Hard Lutnik
11:39
Speaker 5: I think are talking about tariffs now in a way
11:41
Speaker 5: that are a little bit more in line with the
11:44
Speaker 5: Hawks than Steven Mnuchan maybe did eight years ago as
11:48
Speaker 5: his Treasury secretary. But we had reported that there is
11:52
Speaker 5: an effort under way to stage the tariffs, to not
11:57
Speaker 5: hit every country, every reimport with ten percent, twenty percent,
12:02
Speaker 5: you name it, at one time, but kind of go gradually.
12:06
Speaker 5: And the way it was described to us is this
12:09
Speaker 5: is a negotiating play. We open this up, countries will
12:13
Speaker 5: come to the table, we get something out of it,
12:15
Speaker 5: but we don't cause massive inflation by hitting every good
12:18
Speaker 5: with twenty percent. We report it this morning that he's
12:21
Speaker 5: not going after China the way he promised on the
12:24
Speaker 5: campaign trail. Of all the executive orders he will sign today,
12:27
Speaker 5: there's not going to be anything on tariffs. There will
12:30
Speaker 5: be no day on tariffs, even though everyone who's been
12:33
Speaker 5: following his truth social posts, I think we're expecting China
12:37
Speaker 5: tariffs for fentanyl, China tariffs for trade, Mexico Canada tariffs.
12:43
Speaker 5: All that seems to have been put on pause for
12:47
Speaker 5: we don't know how long. But that's the state of
12:49
Speaker 5: play right now. And if you follow his public comments
12:55
Speaker 5: but also privately, is what I'm told he has really
12:58
Speaker 5: shifted on China to a much less adversarial tone. He
13:02
Speaker 5: used to bring up in meetings with people his agrievances
13:06
Speaker 5: about Beijing, and now we see he hopped on the phone.
13:10
Speaker 5: He invited Chujingping to the inauguration. He's obviously not coming,
13:14
Speaker 5: but sent his vice president. He tweeted about world peace
13:18
Speaker 5: and he wants to save TikTok. And we also know
13:21
Speaker 5: that nothing in Trump world really sticks for a very
13:25
Speaker 5: long time. So this could all change tomorrow. If the
13:29
Speaker 5: Hawks get in a room with the President and say, hey,
13:33
Speaker 5: you know what, you really let down some of your
13:35
Speaker 5: supporters who voted for you because you promised across the
13:38
Speaker 5: world tariffs and you did nothing on day one, this
13:41
Speaker 5: could sway him.
13:42
Speaker 2: I mean what is funny is, of course, of all
13:44
Speaker 2: the things in Trump's agenda on which both parties he
13:48
Speaker 2: has united, it is an aggressive antipathy towards China. So
13:53
Speaker 2: if that's the one thing that he steps back from
13:55
Speaker 2: will be interesting. But I mean, sorry, Elon, they need
14:02
Speaker 2: for the need for pay Brad, this is this all, Elon.
14:06
Speaker 2: I mean, you have the you emphasize some of the
14:08
Speaker 2: things that the tech well will be quite happy to
14:09
Speaker 2: see the back of if they can like the competition
14:11
Speaker 2: efforts to reign in tech. But both the control on
14:16
Speaker 2: immigration and indeed the measures against China stood to damage
14:23
Speaker 2: quite large parts of silicon value will certainly not be
14:25
Speaker 2: particularly in their interests. Are they Are they betting that
14:28
Speaker 2: Elon's going to be the Trump whisperer.
14:29
Speaker 3: And I think we don't know.
14:31
Speaker 4: And I think you've put your finger on what will
14:33
Speaker 4: be probably the most significant divide within the Trump rule
14:36
Speaker 4: and coalition, and that's the line of thought represented by
14:41
Speaker 4: Elon and his group of tech CEOs who are now
14:44
Speaker 4: in government or advising government. And then I guess traditional
14:48
Speaker 4: maga Steve Bannon and the like. And we're already seeing
14:51
Speaker 4: clashes on issues like deportation and a T one B visas,
14:55
Speaker 4: and it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
14:57
Speaker 4: But I mean, you know, if you go back eight
14:59
Speaker 4: years ago, what we know about Trump is that he
15:02
Speaker 4: is he is, he can be influenced, and he's quite transactional.
15:06
Speaker 3: And so when you saw.
15:07
Speaker 4: The parade of CEOs like Tim Cook to the White
15:10
Speaker 4: House to carve out relief for companies like Apple, I
15:16
Speaker 4: think I think it often comes down to who is
15:18
Speaker 4: the loudest voice in his ear and who has he
15:20
Speaker 4: talked to most recently.
15:22
Speaker 2: So it's a big big tech will be fine. Potentially
15:24
Speaker 2: big tech is betting they're fine. Small and medium sized
15:27
Speaker 2: tech and other businesses, and probably, I.
15:29
Speaker 4: Mean, it really depends, you know. He said at one
15:31
Speaker 4: point that he thought Mark Zuckerberg should spend the rest
15:33
Speaker 4: of his life in jail. And now zuck Is is
15:36
Speaker 4: at the inauguration.
15:37
Speaker 3: Today, will the attitude change?
15:40
Speaker 4: You know, Elon's interests are in some ways quite opposed
15:43
Speaker 4: to Marx, and so if Elon does have the loudest
15:46
Speaker 4: voice in the room, maybe Mark's on a little bit
15:48
Speaker 4: of trouble.
15:49
Speaker 2: Joe mentioned it at the beginning. It is kind of
15:52
Speaker 2: breathtaking the one eighty that corporate leaders seem to be
15:56
Speaker 2: doing on ESG on a lot of their net zero goals.
16:02
Speaker 2: We just saw the six largest US banks all quitting
16:04
Speaker 2: the UN sponsored net zero alliance and McDonald's, Walmart. They're
16:11
Speaker 2: rolling back all their DEI initiatives. Did they not mean
16:14
Speaker 2: it ever? Or is this the thing that's performative?
16:16
Speaker 1: It is incredible. I will I'm slightly crossed with Lloyd
16:19
Speaker 1: blank Vine for using the monitor thing, which I've used
16:22
Speaker 1: countless times, but I advise everyone in this room to
16:25
Speaker 1: go look at it. It is the most incredible series of
16:27
Speaker 1: headlines that begin with the cannibal as escape from his hideout,
16:31
Speaker 1: he will never escape the mountains, and then it ends
16:35
Speaker 1: with the Emperor has arrived in Fontaine Lower with I
16:38
Speaker 1: think this is imperial match just in fourteen days. But
16:40
Speaker 1: that is pretty much what has happened with Suddenly CEOs
16:44
Speaker 1: have jumped almost a medling and you can see it
16:47
Speaker 1: just in terms of the sort of things they talk about.
16:50
Speaker 1: They are moving back from things. I mean a lot
16:52
Speaker 1: that some of this is posturing. It's just in the
16:55
Speaker 1: same way as some of the diversity stuff maybe was
16:57
Speaker 1: posturing in one way. Now some of the retreat is
17:00
Speaker 1: the same thing. They don't want to get called out
17:03
Speaker 1: for not taking profits as seriously as their rivals, and
17:07
Speaker 1: a lot of these things they can fiddle with just
17:09
Speaker 1: by changing the language a bit.
17:10
Speaker 2: But globally, is there going to be a divide though,
17:12
Speaker 2: because I mean you've already seen it. We learned today
17:15
Speaker 2: actually the mess is not taking away all of the
17:19
Speaker 2: sort of moderating that it had outside of the US.
17:24
Speaker 2: How a big company is going to navigate that? Oh,
17:26
Speaker 2: I'm very green for the rest of the world, but
17:28
Speaker 2: I've given up on all my climate things in the.
17:31
Speaker 1: I don't know what Brad. Brad may have different views
17:33
Speaker 1: on this, but I tend to think there are two
17:34
Speaker 1: different sort of things going on. One is the stuff
17:37
Speaker 1: to do with tech and this enormous increase in wealth,
17:42
Speaker 1: And if you look at throughout the history of commerce,
17:46
Speaker 1: there's always been times where industries shoot from being the
17:49
Speaker 1: people who everyone wants to be, whether you're Rockefeller and
17:52
Speaker 1: Morgan one hundred years ago, to suddenly being the malefactors
17:55
Speaker 1: of great wealth. And notwithstanding the recent love in I
17:59
Speaker 1: think there is a real push to get the tech companies,
18:03
Speaker 1: which is most obvious in Europe because they're all American,
18:07
Speaker 1: but I think is generally there and it's going to
18:09
Speaker 1: have touch points. We've got a film coming out on
18:11
Speaker 1: the number of children who died because they'd be pushed
18:14
Speaker 1: towards suicide videos and things like that. There is a
18:18
Speaker 1: lot of nasty stuff around the tech companies per se,
18:21
Speaker 1: and that's one issue, and we'll see what happens on that,
18:24
Speaker 1: and that's obviously slightly altered by Elon's presence. But the
18:29
Speaker 1: other one, more generally is business. I think on the whole.
18:33
Speaker 1: You know, most business people, there's quite a lot to
18:35
Speaker 1: gain from Trump if he does deregulate. Two big things
18:38
Speaker 1: they don't like is one the idea of immigration taking
18:42
Speaker 1: taking away workers they would need. And as Jenny was saying,
18:45
Speaker 1: on tariffs, and that will be the area. But I do, yes,
18:47
Speaker 1: I do think there is a there are divides there
18:50
Speaker 1: and there will be a big divide between Europe and America.
18:52
Speaker 1: I think that's very difficult to avoid.
18:54
Speaker 2: Have you seen, Jenny, have you seen sort of in
18:57
Speaker 2: the in Washington and elsewhere, anyone kind of standing up
19:02
Speaker 2: for DEI or well in climate I mean, there's a
19:06
Speaker 2: lot of support in Congress for still continuing to come
19:11
Speaker 2: up climate change.
19:12
Speaker 5: Yeah, but there's only so much you can do when
19:14
Speaker 5: you're in the minority in both houses, so everything they
19:18
Speaker 5: say kind of goes into avoid. I don't see anything
19:21
Speaker 5: coming together as an actual initiative, you know, legislation they
19:25
Speaker 5: can't really pass without any Republicans, So it's sort of statements.
19:30
Speaker 4: Yeah, And can I just add, I mean, for at
19:32
Speaker 4: least for tech CEOs, they have seen, they have watched
19:35
Speaker 4: as both the legal and the political environment shifted. So
19:38
Speaker 4: the Supreme Court struck down race based admissions at Harvard,
19:42
Speaker 4: you know, in terms of the political environment, just what
19:46
Speaker 4: seems to be like a full shift away from the
19:49
Speaker 4: principles of DEI. For a long time, they were criticized
19:53
Speaker 4: for creating a discriminatory environment.
19:55
Speaker 3: They you know, did these.
19:56
Speaker 4: Annual transparency reports around the makeup of their workforces and
20:00
Speaker 4: essentially showed no progress and got clobbered year after year.
20:03
Speaker 4: And so I do think there's a feeling of like
20:05
Speaker 4: genuine relief that they can, with political safety kind of
20:10
Speaker 4: retreat from some of these commitments.
20:12
Speaker 3: And I think at least in the US, there's a
20:14
Speaker 3: realization that the population is.
20:16
Speaker 4: A lot more conservative than what was if you look
20:19
Speaker 4: at poles surrounding like mass deportation. You know, generally it
20:23
Speaker 4: feels like, and the election demonstrated it, that the country
20:25
Speaker 4: is supporting some of.
20:27
Speaker 3: These Trump ideals.
20:28
Speaker 4: And so with that cover, the tech CEOs at least
20:31
Speaker 4: feel they're on safe ground to retreat from some of
20:33
Speaker 4: these things that always made them feel uncomfortable.
20:35
Speaker 2: There had been a lot of hand ringing around the
20:38
Speaker 2: development of AI and how the training of the large
20:40
Speaker 2: language models and others on data was inherently biasing them
20:44
Speaker 2: in favor of you know, stereotypes that came alongside the
20:49
Speaker 2: DEI agenda, you know, concern about that. Do you think
20:52
Speaker 2: that's going to stay or do will companies now feel
20:54
Speaker 2: that I have to work about.
20:55
Speaker 4: Well, Zuckerberg just promised a lot more masculine energy and
20:59
Speaker 4: the Facebook, so I don't look, I mean, I think
21:02
Speaker 4: we're going to still hear those critiques level at the
21:05
Speaker 4: tech companies, and I don't know if in this environment
21:07
Speaker 4: they will have as much traction as they once did.
21:11
Speaker 2: So, Jenny, we have already talked implicitly about this, but
21:14
Speaker 2: I'm interested in how it feels as a reporter on
21:16
Speaker 2: the ground. There's always been a lot of corporate interests
21:19
Speaker 2: behind the scenes, particularly in US politics and policy making,
21:24
Speaker 2: but a lot of people have been sort of taken
21:27
Speaker 2: aback by or found it jarring that just the very
21:31
Speaker 2: explicit corporate interests literally sitting behind the president as he
21:35
Speaker 2: gets inaugurated, the idea that policy is potentially being as
21:41
Speaker 2: affected by Elon Musk and his interests as any kind
21:44
Speaker 2: of broader ideological agendas. How does that affect the way
21:47
Speaker 2: you're reporting and where the team's reporting.
21:49
Speaker 5: Well, first of all, what was very different this time
21:52
Speaker 5: around was trum Ran his entire transition out of mar Lago,
21:56
Speaker 5: which obviously there's no access for press, so it was
21:59
Speaker 5: very hard to find out which CEOs he was dining with,
22:02
Speaker 5: and that matters to the policymaking or jobs. You know,
22:07
Speaker 5: everyone's there for a reason or an agenda, so that
22:10
Speaker 5: was really different. It feels more explicit than it did
22:14
Speaker 5: eight years ago because he came out of the gate
22:18
Speaker 5: starting trade wars, and I remember talking to companies or
22:22
Speaker 5: their lobbyists in DC and everyone was terrified to be
22:27
Speaker 5: named in a tweet. So if you could just lay
22:29
Speaker 5: low and deal with him behind the scenes, that was
22:33
Speaker 5: sort of how big companies were approaching it last time around.
22:35
Speaker 5: This time around, it seems like everyone is explicitly kissing
22:39
Speaker 5: the rank. The story you mentioned also had the good
22:41
Speaker 5: anecdote about the Coca Cola bottle in the end, they're
22:45
Speaker 5: made a special inauguration edition. So everyone is out there
22:49
Speaker 5: now on whatever truth, social X, any platform they can
22:55
Speaker 5: say I am meeting with Trump, I am close to Trump.
22:57
Speaker 5: That is much more explicit this time around. It obviously
23:03
Speaker 5: will create I think instability in the way that every
23:07
Speaker 5: single person that can go into the White House or
23:10
Speaker 5: to mar A Lago to spend the weekend. There can't
23:12
Speaker 5: shift policy on the fly, so it might be for
23:15
Speaker 5: US reporters we might actually have a solid story but
23:19
Speaker 5: are unaware that the president is having dinner in mar
23:23
Speaker 5: A Lago with you name it and then completely shift
23:27
Speaker 5: his policies. So I think the pace was already very
23:30
Speaker 5: fast last time around, but the mar A Lago addition,
23:34
Speaker 5: I think an access to this time around will be
23:36
Speaker 5: could be more challenging and more interesting to figure out
23:39
Speaker 5: how we well.
23:40
Speaker 2: It's true that we'd had an economic statecraft team pretty
23:44
Speaker 2: much since Trump got elected the first time, and this
23:47
Speaker 2: time is very much or at least alongside that, we
23:50
Speaker 2: also have the corporate statecraft team, and I guess we'll
23:52
Speaker 2: see how they both do. I mean, John I said
23:54
Speaker 2: at the start that in a sense, this was many
23:58
Speaker 2: people on the outside of the US to say, well,
23:59
Speaker 2: this is nothing new. There's always been a lot of
24:01
Speaker 2: business interests involved in US policy, and there's plenty of
24:06
Speaker 2: people I've spoken to international policy makers, particularly, I would say,
24:09
Speaker 2: in what you might call the global South, who say,
24:11
Speaker 2: thank goodness, we now have a nakedly transactional president. You know,
24:17
Speaker 2: in America is on the world stage admitting that it's
24:20
Speaker 2: totally self interested and it's just out for its own interest,
24:23
Speaker 2: just like every other country, and it's not pretending to
24:26
Speaker 2: have all these high ideals. You know, this is a
24:28
Speaker 2: government I can do business with.
24:30
Speaker 1: I think there is a degree of that, definitely, you
24:32
Speaker 1: can feel it. The only thing is on that I
24:35
Speaker 1: sort of be careful what you wish for, because in general,
24:38
Speaker 1: that world of free trade and globalization which people like
24:42
Speaker 1: me supported and which I think Donald Trump said I
24:45
Speaker 1: was wrong about everything all my life, specially tariff, especially tarist,
24:50
Speaker 1: but that was a world that enriched the poorer world,
24:54
Speaker 1: and I think from that point of view, the global
24:55
Speaker 1: South would be ill advised to celebrate this thing. I
24:59
Speaker 1: can see why that if you are a copper magnate
25:02
Speaker 1: in some place, this might sound great in the short term.
25:06
Speaker 1: And yes, it is perhaps more honest than some of
25:08
Speaker 1: the talk about talking about freedom and then coming in
25:11
Speaker 1: to beat people up behind it. But I think you
25:14
Speaker 1: have to be careful what you wish for. I did
25:16
Speaker 1: listen to Jenny and a bit. It did strike me
25:19
Speaker 1: that some of this stuff could reverse relatively quickly. On Trump,
25:24
Speaker 1: you know, he does deeply believe in tariffs. I think
25:27
Speaker 1: it's always been a been a constancy of his. So
25:30
Speaker 1: at some point there is going to be an argument
25:32
Speaker 1: with the tech people on Trump and Elon at some
25:34
Speaker 1: point that could come apart, and more generally, I think
25:38
Speaker 1: on things like DEI and greenery without signing too sort
25:41
Speaker 1: of bled about it, there are other forces that will
25:44
Speaker 1: keep pushing it forward. One is just the pressure from investors,
25:50
Speaker 1: which I don't think will change that much in terms
25:52
Speaker 1: of different categories. Secondly, it is on climate change. You
25:55
Speaker 1: just have the fact that we have to deal with
25:57
Speaker 1: the climate, and I think lots of people see that.
25:59
Speaker 1: I think at the end, yes, you might see changes,
26:02
Speaker 1: but I think I would still expect corporations will retreat
26:05
Speaker 1: from some of the more publicly extreme versions of DEIS
26:10
Speaker 1: you might put it. But I don't think that's going
26:12
Speaker 1: to be. It's not going to go all the way
26:13
Speaker 1: back to how it was in the nineteen fifties, where
26:16
Speaker 1: a group of white men sat and decided everything.
26:19
Speaker 2: And in short term, I think the biggest thing internationally
26:21
Speaker 2: that people will be dealing with is the global financial
26:25
Speaker 2: side effects of everyone betting on a sort of super
26:28
Speaker 2: sore away America that potentially has unsustainable growth but certainly
26:33
Speaker 2: inflicts higher costs of borrowing.
26:35
Speaker 1: You already see the bond rate, the bomb market. I
26:38
Speaker 1: think I've put a Trump in the bond market will
26:40
Speaker 1: police you, and that seems to be what's happening. Seems
26:44
Speaker 1: to be the one thing he's frightened of is if
26:46
Speaker 1: the bomb market turns on you. That that's something that
26:49
Speaker 1: people can see. And so far Trump has always focused
26:53
Speaker 1: We had a very good bit and the last edition
26:55
Speaker 1: of Trump andomics on this. Trump is always focused on
26:57
Speaker 1: the stock market. If you're running a government to the end,
27:00
Speaker 1: it's the bomb market, which probably matters more.
27:03
Speaker 2: Jenny, I can't help mentioning we've sort of got you
27:06
Speaker 2: mid Atlantic almost because although you're still technically in DC,
27:09
Speaker 2: you will be moving to Berlin. And I've sort of
27:11
Speaker 2: intrigued how you think reporting this story from Europe. I mean,
27:17
Speaker 2: I've said you have to still be on the phone
27:19
Speaker 2: to Washington a lot. You'll be kind of covering both sides.
27:22
Speaker 2: But how do you think the Europeans will be dealing
27:26
Speaker 2: with this agenda?
27:30
Speaker 5: From my reporting right now, I would say they're not
27:32
Speaker 5: as prepared as they should be. This is a little wonky,
27:39
Speaker 5: but there is a big trade case that the Europeans
27:43
Speaker 5: brought against China. You might remember China used economic version
27:48
Speaker 5: against Lithuania. It was about them opening a Taiwan trade office.
27:53
Speaker 5: This has been in the works the entire Biden administration,
27:55
Speaker 5: with lots of support from the Biden administration, and they
27:59
Speaker 5: are seems set to withdrawa case which we reported last
28:03
Speaker 5: week was angering the Trump team because it reinforces their
28:07
Speaker 5: belief that the Europeans are weak and they're not willing
28:10
Speaker 5: to stand up to China, and Brussels is not willing
28:13
Speaker 5: to defend one of its member states, and arguably a
28:16
Speaker 5: smaller one. So I will be on the phone with
28:19
Speaker 5: people in Washington. I think I will be on the
28:22
Speaker 5: phone with people in different capitals and the people that
28:26
Speaker 5: Trump sens there.
28:27
Speaker 2: On this sort of transactionalism. I mean, if there's goment,
28:30
Speaker 2: there are some governments around the world who think, okay,
28:32
Speaker 2: this is quite a straightforward thing. We just have to
28:34
Speaker 2: work out how to sell something to Trump, how could
28:37
Speaker 2: make it be in his interest. Europeans maybe they're a
28:41
Speaker 2: lot that they're not so good.
28:42
Speaker 1: At being transactional.
28:44
Speaker 5: They're a little bit slow compared to the Trump timeline,
28:47
Speaker 5: So I think if something gels and Brussels, Trump has
28:51
Speaker 5: moved on to a new demand. So the transactional nature
28:55
Speaker 5: I think really works well with countries one on one.
28:58
Speaker 5: I think Trump obviously seems really close to Jorgo Maloney,
29:02
Speaker 5: so he will find an ally and her and Victor orban.
29:08
Speaker 5: But once you actually have to respond as a body
29:11
Speaker 5: in Brussels, I don't know how well that's going to
29:13
Speaker 5: work with the transactional So I could foresee a bunch
29:17
Speaker 5: of fights in Europe on how to respond. Do you
29:21
Speaker 5: stand up to him if he threatens tariffs or can
29:25
Speaker 5: you work out something else that's good for your country.
29:28
Speaker 2: I mean John has been an orgy of sort of
29:31
Speaker 2: talking Europe down, one could say, in response to the
29:34
Speaker 2: to the Donald Trump's victory, and also what's happened in
29:36
Speaker 2: financial markets, and just an enormous spotlight on whether it's
29:39
Speaker 2: the lack of defense spending, just the lack of speed
29:43
Speaker 2: and coming up to coming up with anything. Lack of
29:45
Speaker 2: speed when it comes to the economy for sure, any.
29:49
Speaker 1: Positive opportunities and there maybe if I was an investor,
29:52
Speaker 1: I would be a lot richer than I am. But
29:55
Speaker 1: there may be a kind of buying opportunity to the
29:57
Speaker 1: extent that Europe is so written down, but it's on
30:00
Speaker 1: the face of it, it's hard not to see all
30:02
Speaker 1: these pessimistic things about Europe and not add more because
30:07
Speaker 1: I think you look at it for exactly the reasons
30:09
Speaker 1: Jenny said. They're going to have this question about whether
30:11
Speaker 1: they deal within through the European Union, which they are
30:15
Speaker 1: supposed to do on trade things. But you know he
30:17
Speaker 1: will start the way he acts the where you talked
30:20
Speaker 1: to him. He will immediately start ringing Macrol rather than
30:23
Speaker 1: particularly going to Brussels. He's not going to pay much
30:26
Speaker 1: attention to that. But to me, I went to a
30:28
Speaker 1: meeting the other day where a group of bradslot came
30:31
Speaker 1: across to see European politicians, and the message they basically
30:35
Speaker 1: said is you have no idea about Trump, but you
30:38
Speaker 1: are comparatively well informed about Trump compared with AI, because
30:42
Speaker 1: you have no idea what AI is going to do
30:45
Speaker 1: to the economy, you have no companies that are involved
30:48
Speaker 1: in this, You have nothing that you can really show
30:53
Speaker 1: the world in this. There isn't anything in continental Europe
30:55
Speaker 1: that we even think about, and so I think that
30:58
Speaker 1: is almost small friendly. I'm slightly setting bread up to
31:02
Speaker 1: say how great Europe is. I certainly yeah.
31:05
Speaker 2: My effort to get anything out of you, but it
31:06
Speaker 2: was positive on your is completely failed.
31:08
Speaker 4: I don't know.
31:08
Speaker 2: I look hopefully towards Brad, but I'm not sure i'll
31:12
Speaker 2: get a better answer.
31:12
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, Europe does have a couple of interesting
31:15
Speaker 4: AI companies, including.
31:18
Speaker 1: Which is great, but it is very, very small compared
31:21
Speaker 1: with ending in America.
31:22
Speaker 4: But it is interesting that a lot of the leaders
31:24
Speaker 4: of these AI companies are predicting that will we will
31:28
Speaker 4: achieve the next benchmark superintelligence or AGI in the next
31:32
Speaker 4: four years and so that you know, monumental economic and
31:36
Speaker 4: social change. And we can debate what it is will
31:38
Speaker 4: happen on Trump's watch.
31:41
Speaker 2: And does it matter in your world that money is
31:44
Speaker 2: much more expensive because it's going to get the cost
31:47
Speaker 2: of finances going up.
31:49
Speaker 3: I don't know that it matters.
31:51
Speaker 4: I think I think that's a that's an industry that is,
31:54
Speaker 4: you know, focused on creating the next thing, and you know,
31:57
Speaker 4: to them and we'll see if it's true and overly optimistic,
32:01
Speaker 4: but they believe that, you know, Trump is making it
32:04
Speaker 4: safe again for business.
32:06
Speaker 2: So in a year's time. I mean hopefully no one
32:09
Speaker 2: here will remember what you said, and you know things
32:13
Speaker 2: it will just go on the internet.
32:15
Speaker 1: I mean, you know no one will listen to it.
32:18
Speaker 2: What do you think will be Brad, What do you first,
32:20
Speaker 2: what do you think we'll be talking about?
32:21
Speaker 4: Well, we'll be talking about Trump, right, because first role
32:23
Speaker 4: of Trump is that you must always talk about Donald Trump.
32:26
Speaker 4: I think in one year, this honeymoon period where he
32:29
Speaker 4: has assembled a very broad coalition of supporters and partners.
32:34
Speaker 3: And allies, I think that will end.
32:37
Speaker 4: You know that that may not even last the next
32:39
Speaker 4: few weeks or is as long as the first you know,
32:43
Speaker 4: truly ambitious and.
32:45
Speaker 3: Aggressive executive action.
32:48
Speaker 4: I think you know, we've had the hottest year on
32:50
Speaker 4: record now for the past few years, so we we
32:52
Speaker 4: will almost undoubtedly still be talking about climate change and
32:56
Speaker 4: whether AI and the requirements data center usage or making
33:01
Speaker 4: the problems worse rather than better. And then knock on wood,
33:05
Speaker 4: last thing I think we might you know, be talking
33:07
Speaker 4: about global conflict. I mean, in the short term, we're
33:10
Speaker 4: seeing the sunsetting of the of the war in Gaza,
33:13
Speaker 4: maybe some prospects for the war in Ukraine. But if
33:16
Speaker 4: we're talking about a deglobalized world, where America is pulling
33:20
Speaker 4: back as the world's policeman. Then you know, power uphoors
33:23
Speaker 4: a vacuum, and I worry what the next four years
33:27
Speaker 4: brings in that.
33:27
Speaker 2: Regard, Jenny, that's taken a quite a lot of ground
33:32
Speaker 2: for what we'll talk about nam certainly that's the classic, well.
33:38
Speaker 5: All the all the hopefully not a virus. I think tariffs,
33:45
Speaker 5: tariffs will be Trump's going to be tariff man again.
33:49
Speaker 5: I think in the year's time we see him probably
33:52
Speaker 5: shift on China or his global tariff. He's probably going
33:56
Speaker 5: to do something with the Canada Mexico agreement, rip that up,
34:00
Speaker 5: which that will cause a lot of instability. So yeah,
34:04
Speaker 5: I think tariffs will be on everyone's mind.
34:06
Speaker 1: Again.
34:06
Speaker 2: Jenny doesn't always like me quoting her back on this,
34:08
Speaker 2: but I am struck by your answer. And when You've
34:11
Speaker 2: got one of your many scoops a few years ago,
34:13
Speaker 2: and I said, quite early in Trump's term, and I've
34:17
Speaker 2: complimented you, and you came back saying, never a dull
34:19
Speaker 2: moment in national trade policy, which I had to reply, oh,
34:22
Speaker 2: there really have been, but you came into it at
34:26
Speaker 2: a very good time exactly, John, what will we be
34:30
Speaker 2: talking about.
34:31
Speaker 1: Well, basically, I think Jenny and Brad has said all
34:34
Speaker 1: the main ones. I sort of agree with Jenny that
34:36
Speaker 1: I think that the trade thing will come back in
34:38
Speaker 1: because Trump cares about that. And I think also the
34:42
Speaker 1: China thing will heat up again. It has to, because
34:46
Speaker 1: I think it is the one thing where you can
34:47
Speaker 1: unite America. You might be able to unite America and Europe,
34:52
Speaker 1: and that by definition brings in both of those sides.
34:56
Speaker 1: I think the main thing, and it's a very bad
34:58
Speaker 1: cop out, is all the unexpected things. If you went
35:02
Speaker 1: back a month ago, whoever thought that South Korea would
35:05
Speaker 1: go crazy or that we'd all be looking at pictures
35:08
Speaker 1: of Pacific palisades? And the element about being president and
35:12
Speaker 1: Trump discovered it in the first Its first rain with
35:17
Speaker 1: COVID is that you get surprised by things that come
35:20
Speaker 1: at you from the other side of the world Greenland
35:23
Speaker 1: Greenland exactly, or places you decide to invade just for
35:26
Speaker 1: the hell of it. Those but it will be that
35:29
Speaker 1: kind of thing. And you add in on top of
35:31
Speaker 1: it all the difficulties of Trump that Trump causes anyone
35:35
Speaker 1: who tries to predict things. If you go to China,
35:38
Speaker 1: and you meet some very bright people whose job it
35:41
Speaker 1: is to try and explain what's happening in America to Xijingping.
35:45
Speaker 1: I think for them, the first Trump presidency was a
35:47
Speaker 1: complete nightmare because every morning they woke up to discover
35:51
Speaker 1: these tweets landing on them with places that they had
35:54
Speaker 1: never ever thought of. It's hard to imagine that Jijingping
35:57
Speaker 1: was thinking about the Panamaketer Canal and Greenland just a
36:00
Speaker 1: few weeks ago, but now someone in Beijing is having
36:03
Speaker 1: to muster on that. The obvious answers, what do you think?
36:07
Speaker 2: You've said it so well, John, and we've run out
36:09
Speaker 2: of time.
36:09
Speaker 1: It's such a shame.
36:11
Speaker 2: But we have been at various times while we record this,
36:14
Speaker 2: I should say that we've been watching footage from Washington,
36:19
Speaker 2: the both the outgoing and the incoming president getting into
36:22
Speaker 2: the motorcade and heading heading for the inauguration, people people
36:28
Speaker 2: filing in, and you kind of get the sense that
36:31
Speaker 2: people will be watching DC in various ways throughout this
36:34
Speaker 2: World Economic Forum because his return casts such a shadow
36:41
Speaker 2: or a spotlight on this, depending on what you think.
36:43
Speaker 2: But thank you very much to all of you, to Brad,
36:45
Speaker 2: to Jenny, to John and all of you in the
36:48
Speaker 2: audience for joining us for this only second ever episode
36:51
Speaker 2: of trump Andomics from Bloomberg. We hope all of you
36:55
Speaker 2: here enjoyed it and those of you listening raped it
36:58
Speaker 2: very highly and review it. It was hosted by me,
37:02
Speaker 2: Stephanie Flanders, and I was joined by Bradstone, Jenny Leonard
37:05
Speaker 2: and John Wikelthwaite. Thanks very much, Thank you.