Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - DON’T SAY YOU DIDN’T KNOW | Ominous Tech Stock Signs + Stock Market News 16 September 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - DON’T SAY YOU DIDN’T KNOW | Ominous Tech Stock Signs + Stock Market News 16 September 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: So yeah, and good morning to you.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: It is probably the most important week of the year, and I want to walk you through what Wall Street has done, what hedge funds have just done, what the Fed's going to do, how it's going to affect valuations and also give you the number one trade that Goldman Sachs is recommending to their institutional investors not to the common muck like you and me.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: I'm going to fortify ourselves here with some unflavored electrolytes this week, which taste well, slightly salty, but no sugar, no artificial anything, just the good old minerals, which is the way we like to roll.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: So shall we get cracking?
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: I'll share my screen with you as I pour myself this delicious salty beverage.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: And there we go.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Someone asked me the other day why do you always drink electrolytes?
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: I live in a very hot place most of the time, so it's kind of a good thing to do.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: If you have questions, pop them in the chat.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Are you on keto?
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: No, no, no, I don't really go in for it.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: I think fasting is a reasonable thing.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: I think keto is just a product placement for the agricultural industry corn and soy, particularly because they make money out of the meat industry, and that's what they're trying to get you to do so.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Follow the money trail when someone says to do something.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: So here we go.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Here's the first chart of the week, and, and it looks confusing, doesn't it?
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Now, the good thing is the author used three colors quite patriotic, really, which is nice, did you hear about?
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: What do you make of Trump getting shot at a second time?
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Love to hear your thoughts on that one, especially if you are American over there.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: So what have we got?
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: We've got.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: There are essentially two types of people out there.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: There are those who are long as in.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: They buy stocks.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: There are those who short as in, they sell stocks as an investment strategy.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: And then you've got the sort of average which is the net.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: And what do you see?
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Well, we see that since our June highs, institutions have been selling, and that's not good, and the shorts have been particularly active this September, been selling a lot.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Now, we did get bailed out slightly last week by NVIDIA's CEO, giving us some more magic.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: But Apple we also get on top.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you why they're up.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: I've got the data on that one as well.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you exactly why they're down.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: There is a good reason for that.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: And then, if you look a little bit deeper into what they're actually buying and selling, then the thing they're selling is, well, energy stocks they had a great year Tech right, consumer staples and real estate.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: That's what they're selling.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: And they're selling specific individual stocks and they're buying, by the way, financials like mad.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: I've got a trade on one of the financial brokers out there, which they're doing really well, really nicely.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: So this is important to realize that while you're nibbling and nibbling, nibbling, the institutions are like no, we're selling that crap to you.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Basically.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: And this is basically why and I showed you this chart at the end of August, I think, maybe even in July and it's like to say guys, just buckle up for the second half of September, october shouldn't be much better.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: And that's just because, historically, the second half of September is a horrible, horrible month.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: And we're about to enter the second half of September, aren't we?
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Actually, we are in the second half of September, who knows what date it is.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: So bear that in mind.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Just because we had a nice little bounce from NVIDIA at the end of last week, we're not out of the woodwork yet, and I mean that.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: So be a little cautious here Now, if we can move on a little bit further here.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: Oh, yes, we're making money, we're making money, we have always made money, we make money, and we are up now $28,000 on our $30,000 teaching portfolio, which is something like 93% or something we're up by.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: You want to learn how we do that?
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Come and join me tomorrow actually 8pm Eastern time I'll teach you for about an hour and a half or something and I'll show you the entire strategy.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: It's fairly simple, really.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: It's three steps.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: I'll basically show you how we enter the trade.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: I'll show you where we take profits in an automated way and I'll also show you how we manage our risk if things go against us.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: And again, that's in an automated way, so we don't have to stare at things.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: You get Kamala ads on my videos.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: Good God, political ads on our videos.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: That's terrible, isn't it?
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: I don't think you block that stuff.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Probably this is why Apple is down, and that's also an important thing to realize, because what Apple does is still important.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Aapl I thought I misspelled it, but that's just Apple.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: And the problem is that the estimated first weekend pre-orders.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: So these are the people who would normally sleep in tents outside Apple stores.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: I'd like to meet one of those people.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: They must be special, somehow.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: And the iPhone Pro orders, so the Pro and the Pro Max.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: And the iPhone Pro order, so the Pro and the Pro Max.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: Their first weekend pre-order sales versus the iPhone 15, the previous model are down 16% and 27%, Not exactly the AI replacement cycle.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: We're going to sell lots more phones than we did last time around, right, so that's rather disappointing.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Now it is true that the plus numbers look good, decent, but we're worried about the pro because you know that's the higher ticket item, right.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: So therefore, the higher margin item and therefore Apple stock is committing halaqiri this morning, I think, well, down 2.5%, but that's quite a lot when you're a $3 trillion company.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: So not brilliant, I would say, and something to bear in mind, because that drags down the whole bloody tech sector.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: We look at pre-market.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: There we go, see, everything is red.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Everything is red Just a little bit.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: It's not horrible, but it's just everything is a little bit red.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: Here, robert, you're onto the keto thing.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: You see, I like carbs, I'm a big fan of carbs, rice especially.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: I think rice is amazing If you look at the country with the highest life expectancy, you know.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Look at Japan, right.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: What do they eat?
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Rice, lots of rice, white rice which, we're told, has no nutrients whatsoever, which, of course, is complete nonsense.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: It's a fantastic thing if you looked outside of the very, very niche world that Western nutritionists like to look at, but anyway, that's another story.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: This, my friends and I didn't want to hold this back is Goldman Sachs, the big GS's top trade.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Right now they're saying this is just glorious, and, of course, not recommending it or telling you what to do.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: But it is, of course, silver, and I'm looking here at the silver ETF, but any variation of silver looks pretty much the same thing.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: And what do you see?
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Well, we've broken out of this downtrend here which was that white line.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: That was the downtrend Because we had high here, lower high there, slightly lower, high here, even lower, high there.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: But now we've got this beautiful rally up here.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Kind of a textbook thing really.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: You get that explosion up there, you get increasing volume for two days, you're above everything.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: All moving averages are pointing up.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: It's sort of like God's gift to the trader.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: That's really what that is.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, I could totally see why Goldman's are pushing that.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: Maybe they caused it, who knows, but that looks quite sweet really.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Rice is amazing.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: No gluten.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: You see, I'm also a big fan of gluten.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: I think gluten intolerance is a complete nonsense.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: I think it's completely made up.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: It's just you're eating processed food.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: That's really the problem.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: It's not gluten's fault.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: Gluten, again is a wonderful thing.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Anyway, I digress.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Goldman Sachs on silver are saying okay, the reason it's going to go up, ai silver is apparently somehow part of the semiconductor supply chain who knew?
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: And a more dovish Fed is going to be good for it.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: And it's basically trading below gold.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: And to understand that logic, let me show you good old gold and Apple.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Okay, here we go.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: Let me make both of these lines so it's a little bit clearer.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: So if you yeah, it depends a little bit on the timeframe, obviously, with every chart crime ever committed.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: But if you yeah, if you zoom out a little bit more, say to beginning of 2022, then the red line is gold and silver is trading a little bit lower.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of the idea.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: It does trade a little bit lower a lot of the time, but that's kind of the idea that there is a catch-up trade here as well.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: And then on the verge of a multi-month breakout and I agree with him on the breakout for sure, I think the gold thing.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: I don't really care for soups too much, but the breakout is definitely pretty sweet here.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: So from a chat point of view, from a trader's point of view, this looks rather interesting.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Aruna, you love your rice.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: I do too.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Rice is fantastic.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Rice is really one of those things.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know how you live without rice.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: To be honest with you, I don't think I rarely have a meal without rice.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: So Goldman Sachs put this out and what happens?
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Well, everybody runs out and buys call options on SLV, which is silver.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: So the trade is in full swing, which is interesting.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: So there you have it.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: You can have a look at that if you like.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: If you're interested in that, do your own bloody research, of course.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: And then maybe the story that everyone's going to be talking about for the next 48 hours or so Organic jasmine rice with salmon.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: My cats like salmon.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Winston does too.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: I'm more on for the rice electrolytes, nice and salty.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Okay, this is what everyone's talking about.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: This is the rate cut we're going to get right now.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Rate cuts will come in in.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Either we're going to get a let me get a blue pen here either we're going to get a 0.5 cut, or we're going to get a 0.25% cut.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: Right now there is a 65% probability of the bigger cut and a 35% probability of the smaller cut.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: That's others.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: The market expects it.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: It's not an insight into the Muppets at the Fed's brains, it's just the market expectation and that's based on actual trading futures.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: So it's not sort of a quiz or something.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: And that's shifted massively.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: If you go back a week, 70% of the market thought we would only get a quarter point cut and now it is 65% on the half point.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: So what's the problem with this?
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: If you don't get half a point cut, the market's going to be terribly, terribly disappointed and the Fed might just come in and go.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: We're going to be cautious and conservative and data-driven after we printed $4 trillion, which I don't want anybody to remember.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: So the market will tank, exactly as Costa says, if we only get a quarter percent cut, because it will be less than most people expected.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: Basmati rice basmati rice is very nice, although there are also other rice which are very, very nice.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: The japanese have a whole.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Do you go into japanese food shops and they have like fridges full of all these different rice types and they're amazing.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Seriously, buy the most expensive and eat that.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: It just blows your socks off like nutty and delicious A bit like our stock performance so far this year.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Not stock performance, trading performance.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: We are up about 93% so far this year.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: If you want to come and learn how we do that, join me at felixstrensorg slash bootcamp tomorrow.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: It's completely free of charge.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: All you got to bring is a pen and a pad and a desire to learn and maybe be financially free, which is really what it's all about.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: So for the rest of the week, we've got some excitement built in, some real excitement.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow we get retail sales data Yay which of course is going to impact your Macy's and your Nike and your Foot Locker and that kind of stock and just generally market sentiment you know how much money is the consumer still got?
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: And then on Tuesday, of course, the Fed rate decision and the Fed press conference, and that's kind of the key thing here.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: And then on Thursday, just to round it up, so we get a lot of Powell this week.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: On Wednesday we get Powell.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: And then on Thursday guess what?
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: We get some more Powell, so that'll be interesting.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: And then on Friday, we what?
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: We get some more Powell, so that'll be interesting.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: And then on Friday we get a bit more of the favorite Powell metric, the core PCE data.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: So that'll tell us a lot about what they're going to do at the next meeting, which is after Wednesday.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: Everyone's only going to talk about what's happening at the next meeting.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: We don't really care that much.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Well, because I'm lying we do care whether we're going to get that half a percent cut or whether we're going to get that quarter percent cut.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: That does really matter.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: But we are also going to want to try and figure out what are they going to do next.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: What's his language?
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: If he only gives us a quarter point cut but says we expect to keep trimming rates at the next meetings unless data changes, then again that would be okay.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: We could live with that.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: But if he just does only a quarter cut and says we're not sure we need to do another one this year, then the market will run around naked and start screaming Terry, you're very kind, referring to my kitten there who passed away last week.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: It's very hard, it really is very hard when you lose these little creatures that are with you for 18 years and you put them to bed every day and they're always there.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: It's just.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: I didn't really factor that into it.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: My conclusion from it is just you really life's shorter than you think and you really got to enjoy every minute of it.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: And if you're doing something you're not really loving, then you got to enjoy every minute of it.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: And if you're doing something you're not really loving, then you got to change it.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: And we talked about a few things today which we're going to change and I, generally speaking, only do really what I want, but there's still some things that you can think yeah, this isn't quite right, this isn't quite perfect, and I was going to wait a year.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: But why wait a year?
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: Right, why not do it today?
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: Because