Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Thoughts from 30,000 ft + Stock Market News 22 January 2024

Transcript

Thoughts from 30,000 ft + Stock Market News 22 January 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Felix here from about 40,000 feet up on an Boeing 777 flying over Iraqi airspace.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: So this is my last video.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: I blame Boeing.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: I actually just saw some air, some oil installations out of the window, but that's not really what I want to talk to you about.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: I was looking at some data this morning on hedge fund positioning.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: I was looking at the options market positioning, and you always know that that's what gets me excited, but it's actually very useful, and what we can see is that the whole resistance has moved up to 5000 points on the S&P, so it's very, very likely that the market's actually going to go up to about 5000, and then we know, we see what happens.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Everything has shifted up from 4800, where we're sitting, to 5000, and that's glorious and everyone's making money.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: The FT headline this morning I saw a newspaper today which I never do was all about how much money the hedge funds are making, which is true.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: They did, of course, have a terrible November, december, and now they're having a glorious January because they're right for once.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: They are long quality, which means the big tech stocks, and they're short mean unprofitable crap, and some of that isn't crap and therefore there could be a short squeeze in that, sofi, for example, I'm hoping for as they become profitable shortly and I'm talented as they get included in the S&P.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: I think that's going to start to shift perception that it is no longer crap but it is now profitable high quality tech and there's some interesting opportunities in here at Vost to make money.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Because I'm literally flying over Iraq here.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: I'm also thinking more and more about what's going on in the world and there is something I remember from economics class a long time ago and that is, by the way, I just had a really delicious appetizer here.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: There's a sort of the remnants of it are left here about seven dishes of Middle Eastern Mezzi platter.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: As I'm flying Emirates Massive comfort, and that's also something I want to talk to you about.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: I'm not doing this to kind of bloat or show off, but we'll get to that in a second.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: But let's just get back to the Middle Eastern Iraq.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: You know World War II was credited for ending the Great Recession.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: That's what the government said.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: It said like this is brilliant, we ended the Great Recession because of the war effort, which is true and it isn't.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: It wasn't the private sector that recovered, it was massive government spending, it was the government's massive hiring and, of course, you know, making everybody into troops and turning the whole economy on its head.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: And that's what lifted the economy out of recession.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: True, but it had nothing to do with the private sector.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: It was all government driven.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: And what I see right now is like we have this massive catastrophe, which was COVID lockdowns and which just killed the economy.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Well, apart from certain online things you know bikes and that kind of thing and the government is now saying well, it's brilliant, there's no recession.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: You know, everything is booming.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: But if you look at that real private sector data, I think the private sector has been in a recession for some time, but because the government is spending so much, 25% of all new jobs created are government and all the other ones are basically part-time jobs.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: You know McDonald's jobs.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: We're seeing a very skewed picture, and this is government trying to like do exactly what they did 70-odd years ago and that's just the playbook.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: And the government has this incredible ability to just generate money.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: They print money and then they spend it and they can hire everybody and they can do whatever the heck they want.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Basically, I just got to make myself some tea here.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: And we don't have that ability, or do we?
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Well, people often say to me I'm going to have a miserable year, the economy is bad, and I strongly disagree with that.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: I think that only happens if your income stream is one job, one company that can't figure out how to make money and change with the times.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Then, yes, you're a little bit screwed, you're not going to get your pay rise, you're not going to get your 3%, like that, other matters.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: But if you take things into your own hands and actually generate your own economy, which you can and seriously I always offer email me phoenix at godecademyorg and ask how can I get a freelance job, how can I work on upwork and all these sites where you can charge hundreds of dollars an hour and get independent income streams?
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: I always work with mentors, loads of them.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: I pay some of them 10, 20, 30 thousand dollars.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: I pay some of them 400, 500 dollars an hour because I value their experience.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: I value their insight I don't want to figure it out on my own and you probably have insight and you don't realize how valuable it is.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: You know why?
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Because your employer underpays you.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: So therefore, you've been conditioned to thinking your skill set isn't worth that much, because you think it's worth 100 thousand dollars a year or something.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: If you're getting paid 100k and your company has a reasonable profit margin, well, it's probably worth triple that, maybe five times that, maybe seven times that if you are in a high margin industry and you could leverage that just by going direct.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: And there's going to be somebody else out there, somebody who's smaller, who wants to know how to do it.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I slightly digress, but seriously, email me, phoenix at godecademyorg, or just put it in the comments and say, hey, felix, I want to help and I'll ping you my email address again.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: And that's what actually gets you there to.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: You know, flying like this, like whenever I want, wherever I want, in like the most ridiculous comfort.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: I've had a shower on this flight actually on the previous flight and it was lovely.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: It was hot, it was steamy, I blow dried my hair, which I never do.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: There was body lotion, it was glorious, everything smells good, the towels are warm under floor heating, all of it, and then I get served like the best restaurant in the world.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: I'm going to order my main course in a moment.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: I could be drowning myself in crook champagne, vintage champagne, if I wanted to.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: I'd rather have the tea because I feel more fresh when I drink it and it's just such a pleasant way to move around and enjoy your life and everybody deserves it.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: And you don't get there with a salary job.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Maybe very few people get there with a salary job.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe the top 0.1% off bankers and lawyers and doctors maybe do, but then 99% of those jobs also don't get you there.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Like, out of my circle of friends I've got two who have jobs that pay them very significant salaries that allow them this kind of lifestyle Two, you know, out of hundreds of people that I've gone to law school with and uni with and stuff.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Everybody else is in that middle ground, can't really afford business class seats, let alone, you know, and you can do something about it.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: The sooner you make your money work for you, the sooner you get the second income stream and it sounds like work, it sounds like effort.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's easier to like recline on the sofa and watch Netflix and have a beer, totally, but it actually becomes fun.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: You know, like what I do, like investing my money, and I'm going to share what I do with you guys, which is just incredible and super fun and it gives me so much satisfaction and so much gratitude and encouragement and incentive and once you get to a point where you don't need the money, it actually becomes fun.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: It becomes fun to do what you do.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: And then you always see somebody who's got more and you think, hang on, I should be doing way more.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: You know like I've got a neighbor as a house I see literally from my studio every day and his house is 200 million US dollars, 200 million bucks.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: I can't afford that house.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: And I look at them and I think, well, I should be able to afford that house.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: Why shouldn't I be able to afford that house?
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: And you kind of move through this and I think that's kind of what keeps me motivated.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Not because I'm suffering, I'm clearly not, but it's actually, it's a game.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: It's just fun at this point to strive higher.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: And what I see from my students, once they get through the initial like month or two of slight pain and learning and paper trading and screwing up and then figuring it out, and then, once they make their first day of profitable trades and then their first month and then their first quarter, the messages I see and they're like this is fun.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Oh my God, I'm so glad I started this in the penny stock, like why didn't I start the sooner that always comes, so I didn't, I start the sooner.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: And then they're building up the second income stream and now, okay, they've got options, and maybe the option is to work less, maybe the options to quit your job, maybe the option is to buy a nicer house, maybe the option is to do something for your family or children or whatever it might be community and you suddenly feel more worthy because you're getting more, and the more you get, the more worthy you feel.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Therefore, the more you feel you deserve, therefore, the more you get.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: That's very much the way it works, whereas most people work a job with a salary that's underpays them, because that's how companies make money.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: So I guess what my long ramble is here, one I'm feeling bullish on the market in the short term.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: I think there are some serious hiccups down the road, unless the government just continues to do like a Japan and just outspend everybody, and it's entirely possible.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, say, trump gets elected, which seems somewhat likely now in my view, and he'll likely spend less on wars overseas, because that's sort of his thing.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: So if you stop wasting money in Ukraine and I think it's a waste, it's a waste of life wars always a waste.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: They blew up some gas terminal in the Baltic Sea today.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, talk about escalation.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: The Baltic Sea, if you don't know it, is what borders Germany, poland and the Baltic States and a little bit of Russia.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: That's nowhere near Ukraine.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: In a sense that's just insanity just to try and spread this war.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: And it all started with a gas pipeline being blown up from Russia to Germany.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Who has an interest in doing this stuff?
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Follow the money and FT headline this morning insurgencies in West Africa on the rise.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: Do you know why They've got weapons?
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Do you know where the weapons are coming from?
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: The Ukraine, half the stuff the US sends to Ukraine and straight in Africa in some civil war.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: So really all you're doing is spreading misery around the world.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: You stop that.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: You stop that spending.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: You close those bases in Iraq because they cost billions a year.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Wouldn't you rather your tax dollar was spent in the US and you actually got decent airports and decent roads and decent bridges and decent infrastructure?
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Like when I visit the US and I love the US.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: I've been going there since I was a child.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: I love the people, such kindness and warmth and excitement, and it's the world of innovation all the good stuff or the tech comes from.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: I absolutely admire it but honestly, for me flying in the US is like flying in a third world country and that might sound harsh to you but like no flights ever on time like.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Last time I was there, I was flying to LA.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: I had a meeting in San Francisco, two meetings.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: I thought, brilliant, I'll just fly up in the morning, come back down the evening.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: That's a clip and impossible, isn't it?
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Because none of the flights are ever on time.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: It's like seriously third world, like La Garia airport.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: I landed there I was like where am I?
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Am I in central Central Africa, seriously?
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: And actually there the airports are better than same with, you know, business class within the US.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: It's a scandal and I know those are not real problems, but just like the infrastructure hasn't been updated since the 80s when the US was genuinely booming from a private sector boom.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: So I'd rather you spend this money there, fix the economy, stop wasting and all the stuff and sort out what's going on within, within, domestically, and I think that's probably what people care about and you know I don't care about your politics all that much, it doesn't really affect me, but I just think it's uh, you're spending the money on the wrong people.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: You're just giving it to the farmer billionaires and the the gun billionaires.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: That's really who's running the country at the moment and that seems to be fairly independent of who's in the White House, which is, which is strange.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: So they've really, like you know, got there.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: But you know, that's just my view from an as an outsider.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Let me know what you think.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: I hope the audio on this isn't too terrible and let me see if we've got a bit of view here that looks, uh, looks rather Middle Eastern-y.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Let me see if you can see that.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: Hang on, let me flip the camera.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: Can you see that?
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: That looks like sort of desert and desert and desert, doesn't it?
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: So okay, I'm going to have to clear up this and order myself a main course.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: It's very pleasant flying this way, isn't it?
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: Look, there's just a little door, stars on the ceiling and I've got my little cabinet here and I can have a nap too if I like.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: So I wish you a glorious day, wherever you might be.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: I hope this inspires you a little bit and that it is somewhat useful, and I'll be keeping you in touch with what I'm up to and what the market's doing over the next couple of days, and all the best.