Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Apps, Pickles & Mentalism | NFL Conference Championships

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Apps, Pickles & Mentalism | NFL Conference Championships · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:10
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings. The crown
0:13
Speaker 1: is yours, the conference title games are upon us. We
0:17
Speaker 1: have all the info that you need to get set
0:20
Speaker 1: for all of that and get some bets in pocket
0:23
Speaker 1: today as well. I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined by my Favorites crew,
0:27
Speaker 1: the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky, the Queen of
0:31
Speaker 1: the Pod, Miss Kendra Middleton. On today's episode, we've got
0:35
Speaker 1: action or distraction coming up in moments, Stucky's random question
0:39
Speaker 1: of the Week, two Kings and a Queen parlay courtesy
0:42
Speaker 1: of Draft Kings. But let's head straight to the primer
0:46
Speaker 1: for our shrimply unbelievable stat of the week. Two teams
0:51
Speaker 1: off of overtime, the Broncos and the Rams off of
0:55
Speaker 1: an overtime winning the divisional round last week. Since twenty fifteen,
1:00
Speaker 1: teams off of ot facing a team that was not
1:03
Speaker 1: or winning at a rate of just forty three point
1:05
Speaker 1: nine percent forty six percent of those games against the spread,
1:09
Speaker 1: so slight tick up ats. This season, those teams went
1:13
Speaker 1: ten to eighteen straight up, eleven and seventeen against the spread,
1:17
Speaker 1: but that counts in season games. For the regular season,
1:20
Speaker 1: looking specifically at the playoffs, when the team is off
1:23
Speaker 1: of an overtime win in the postseason and it's playing
1:27
Speaker 1: obviously another playoff game in the next round. They are
1:29
Speaker 1: zero to five straight up one in four ats since
1:32
Speaker 1: twenty fifteen and losing by a healthy margin as well. Kendra,
1:38
Speaker 1: how much do you factor in overtime impact into this
1:44
Speaker 1: weekend's games as you look at the Broncos and the Rams.
1:48
Speaker 2: I definitely think it matters because at this point in
1:50
Speaker 2: the season, nobody, no team is perfectly healthy, no player
1:53
Speaker 2: is perfectly healthy, and the more minutes and the more
1:56
Speaker 2: time and the more snaps downs, everything that you have
1:59
Speaker 2: on your body matters. We've seen kind of the exhausted
2:02
Speaker 2: I pointed maybe towards the exhaustion towards the Eagles this year,
2:07
Speaker 2: the Chiefs this year, just having so many more games
2:09
Speaker 2: on your body. So I think that it's probably silly
2:12
Speaker 2: to say that it doesn't matter. I mean, at this
2:15
Speaker 2: point in the season, nobody's healthy. Every second of rest
2:19
Speaker 2: you can get is important.
2:21
Speaker 1: I would say that it matters more in fading the
2:24
Speaker 1: Rams because this is their third straight road game, road game,
2:28
Speaker 1: so you would think that they would be more impacted
2:30
Speaker 1: by that, I happen to know after watching the Sunday
2:33
Speaker 1: six Pack Stucky, that that does not factor in enough
2:37
Speaker 1: to your analysis. And perhaps we'll get a beat on
2:40
Speaker 1: this later on in the show. So if you want
2:41
Speaker 1: to save some of this in your pocket, by all means,
2:43
Speaker 1: do so, but not enough to scare you off the Rams.
2:48
Speaker 3: No, especially at three. I mean, look, there's we've had teams.
2:54
Speaker 3: I think it's a small factor, but like I mean
2:57
Speaker 3: that the twenty twelve Ravens went on to win the
2:59
Speaker 3: Super Bow. They played Wildcard Weekend, went on the road
3:02
Speaker 3: one and overtime, and then against the Broncos in double
3:06
Speaker 3: overtime in altitude. The next week they went up to
3:08
Speaker 3: New England and destroyed Brady in the conference championship game
3:11
Speaker 3: with Joe Flacco. Two thousand and three Panthers, who went
3:14
Speaker 3: on to the Super Bowl. They were They played Wildcard Weekend,
3:19
Speaker 3: won and overtime against the Rams, and then went to
3:23
Speaker 3: Philly as an underdog and dominated the Eagles then and
3:27
Speaker 3: then went on to the Super Bowl to play the Patriots.
3:30
Speaker 3: So I think it is a factor. But you also
3:33
Speaker 3: got to remember division like divisional home field advantage isn't
3:37
Speaker 3: worth as much. There's familiarity there. The Toaday's generally been
3:41
Speaker 3: good when it comes to travel, and teams are getting
3:44
Speaker 3: smarter with just over time with traveling and taking care
3:49
Speaker 3: of their bodies, and so I do think it's a
3:51
Speaker 3: it's a small factor. But the Rams are getting healthier too.
3:56
Speaker 3: And the Seahawks they have a potential issue at left tackle.
4:02
Speaker 3: They lost one of their running backs. But I mean
4:04
Speaker 3: getting Dotson backs huge for the Rams. They have Davante
4:07
Speaker 3: Adams back this time around, Quinton Lake back on the
4:11
Speaker 3: defensive side of the ball. I just had a three,
4:14
Speaker 3: even in an expensive three, I'd have to play the Rams.
4:16
Speaker 3: I mean we're going back, go back to Week sixteen,
4:21
Speaker 3: and the Rams dominated Seattle, and I mean I was
4:26
Speaker 3: on Seattle plus one at home. One of the reasons
4:30
Speaker 3: is because Dotson was out, Adams was out, and Seattle
4:35
Speaker 3: was basically healthy outside of their left tackle, which might
4:37
Speaker 3: be the case again this week. But in that came
4:40
Speaker 3: I was getting plus one. Lucky, lucky bet. I mean
4:43
Speaker 3: it took a miraculous two point conversion to come back
4:45
Speaker 3: from down sixteen that included a punt return for a touchdown.
4:48
Speaker 3: Now special teams are concerned again now Seattle special teams
4:50
Speaker 3: are elite. But the Rams, I mean the Seals were
4:53
Speaker 3: plus one home dog in Week sixteen. Since then, yeah,
4:57
Speaker 3: the Rams have been a bit more inconsistent, but we
5:01
Speaker 3: had a full body of work after Week sixteen, including
5:04
Speaker 3: a game at Seattle where I said Rams are clearly
5:07
Speaker 3: the best team in the NFL. They put up close
5:09
Speaker 3: to six hundred yards in Seattle on that defense that
5:12
Speaker 3: was healthy without Adams and without Dots. And you know,
5:16
Speaker 3: now we fast forward a month later and we're pushing
5:19
Speaker 3: three on this line. I can't get there. I think
5:25
Speaker 3: this is a little bit of recency bias weighing in
5:28
Speaker 3: on both sides, with the Rams not covering him back
5:31
Speaker 3: to back weeks looking a little shakier. And then the Seahawks,
5:35
Speaker 3: I mean they the last three games since then, they
5:37
Speaker 3: played the forty nine ers practice squad twice, and they
5:39
Speaker 3: match up so well against the forty nine ers and
5:41
Speaker 3: the Panthers, Like that's that's all. We've only gotten three
5:44
Speaker 3: games against two opponents for Seattle.
5:47
Speaker 2: Talked about the Patriot having it easy.
5:50
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean against teams that they match up well.
5:52
Speaker 3: And at the end of the day, I have I
5:54
Speaker 3: have the better quarterback, the better offensive line, the better receivers,
5:58
Speaker 3: the better running back room, and I'm going up against
6:03
Speaker 3: a quarterback. We'll push this over the edge for me
6:05
Speaker 3: of why I'm going to play the Rams that I want?
6:06
Speaker 3: Like a three minus one twenty is sure better?
6:11
Speaker 1: Is you? Like?
6:13
Speaker 3: What I think this comes down to, is it's gonna
6:15
Speaker 3: come out of the coaching like there's gonna be some
6:17
Speaker 3: curve balls from McVay. I thought he had an awful
6:19
Speaker 3: game last week. He generally has positive curve balls. But
6:23
Speaker 3: like formation wise, personnel wise, you go back to the
6:26
Speaker 3: first meeting, it was all it was sixty five percent
6:28
Speaker 3: eleven personnel. The second meeting it was like sixty five
6:31
Speaker 3: percent thirteen personnel. Well, they abandoned that last week. Thirteen
6:34
Speaker 3: personnel doesn't work as well against Seattle's defense anyway. So
6:37
Speaker 3: I'm curious to see what they do and what Seattle
6:40
Speaker 3: does to counter what the Rams did in that second meeting.
6:42
Speaker 3: They ran right at even wore A. They had no
6:44
Speaker 3: answer for Puka. Do they bracket Pookah here? How do
6:47
Speaker 3: they handle that? Like those little adjustments? This is like
6:49
Speaker 3: a coaching porn game. When the Rams have the ball,
6:52
Speaker 3: but the Rams can get pressure, and Darnold under pressure
6:56
Speaker 3: we've seen a countless times against this Rams team three
6:59
Speaker 3: times in the last two years, including in the playoffs
7:01
Speaker 3: last year. He's gonna make mistakes and what puts this
7:04
Speaker 3: over the top, which might kind of counteract some of
7:07
Speaker 3: this scheduling advantage because it's definitely an advantage for Seattle.
7:10
Speaker 3: At home they had a buy and then a laugher,
7:13
Speaker 3: and then the Rams had to go to Carolina in
7:16
Speaker 3: a war, to Chicago in a war in overtime, and
7:18
Speaker 3: now to Seattle. It's definitely an advantage for Seattle. But
7:22
Speaker 3: the oblique injury for Sam Darnold, I think it's like
7:26
Speaker 3: last week, he didn't have to do anything. He threw
7:27
Speaker 3: for one hundred and twenty yards.
7:30
Speaker 1: But what about Stafford though, because that last week the
7:33
Speaker 1: finger was a storyline going into that game against Chicago,
7:36
Speaker 1: he didn't play great.
7:38
Speaker 2: Se If we're talking about his back right now, well,
7:40
Speaker 2: they've been talking.
7:41
Speaker 1: About his back for years, I feel like so are
7:43
Speaker 1: we sure? And perhaps the number that we're seeing is
7:49
Speaker 1: is somewhat reflective of this that there's less confidence that
7:52
Speaker 1: Matt Stafford is at one hundred percent right now.
7:56
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, no one's really at one hundred percent,
7:57
Speaker 3: but like.
7:59
Speaker 1: A quarterly not being one hundred percent throwing.
8:01
Speaker 3: But we know that Darnold is not one hundred percent.
8:04
Speaker 3: I mean you could see it on his deep balls
8:06
Speaker 3: last week. He's getting he's grimacing, he's not gonna be
8:09
Speaker 3: able to scramble or his mobility's gonna be limited. He's
8:11
Speaker 3: getting heat on the sidelines. And the thing is with
8:13
Speaker 3: an oblique I think there's like a there's like a
8:16
Speaker 3: ten to fifteen percent chance it like really flares up
8:18
Speaker 3: and becomes problematic, and that occurs. The risk of that
8:21
Speaker 3: goes up with each pass attemp and each time you
8:23
Speaker 3: have to you know, tork your body and throw it downfield.
8:27
Speaker 3: And last week it didn't not have to do much.
8:29
Speaker 3: But if you know, I think this week he's not
8:32
Speaker 3: going to have that same luxury where you know, Seattle's
8:35
Speaker 3: up twenty eight to three for most of this game.
8:38
Speaker 3: I don't think that's going to be the case. So yeah,
8:42
Speaker 3: you could there's definite an argue with me that Stafford
8:45
Speaker 3: might not be at one hundred percent, although the conditions
8:48
Speaker 3: were just not ideal less.
8:49
Speaker 1: Not ideal, but Stafford held without a touchdown for the
8:52
Speaker 1: first time in nineteen starts this season, and that was
8:55
Speaker 1: against Chicago. I know the weather wasn't great, it's the
8:57
Speaker 1: Bears defense is awful, and he still had one of
9:00
Speaker 1: his worst performances of the season. So think the story
9:05
Speaker 1: needs to be told.
9:06
Speaker 3: Donald hasn't I mean this, this Seattle offense has pretty
9:11
Speaker 3: much been figured out. I mean you go back to
9:15
Speaker 3: Devint talked about this earlier in the week. I mean
9:18
Speaker 3: since the first nine weeks of the year, I mean
9:22
Speaker 3: Donald was unbelievable, Like I think number one and EPA
9:26
Speaker 3: per plays. I think it's like bottom five since week ten,
9:29
Speaker 3: and teams have figured out they're just going lighter boxes. Now.
9:33
Speaker 3: The Seattle run game has gotten better as a result,
9:36
Speaker 3: but the explosive plays that pet disappeared. And like you also,
9:41
Speaker 3: what's and Donald over the past since he's played the Rams,
9:46
Speaker 3: he's played Carolina and San Francisco, the two worst teams
9:50
Speaker 3: in the league in terms of pressure eight And that's
9:53
Speaker 3: like that's the biggest handicap when it comes to Donald,
9:56
Speaker 3: Like can you pressure him? And when you do, he
9:59
Speaker 3: makes mistake. So I think there's a very high risk
10:03
Speaker 3: that he makes which he's done all year against the Rams.
10:06
Speaker 3: Backbreaking mistakes kill killer mistakes.
10:09
Speaker 2: So he's about what almost ten turnovers against them alone.
10:12
Speaker 2: I want to say, it's like seven.
10:14
Speaker 3: Yeah, and like that pick was so I mean some
10:16
Speaker 3: of the intercessions have been so bad. So yeah, I
10:20
Speaker 3: just think at three this this line can't be three
10:24
Speaker 3: in my opinion. So, uh, that's the side that I'm
10:27
Speaker 3: looking at.
10:28
Speaker 1: Well, I I did just look ahead at the show notes,
10:32
Speaker 1: and I do think we're going that you did, Evan,
10:35
Speaker 1: you might want to stretch for later in the show.
10:39
Speaker 2: Guess who Guess who the problem child is? Once again?
10:44
Speaker 1: Oh man, it's gonna be fun. We will get back
10:46
Speaker 1: to that in a moment, but it's time to delve
10:48
Speaker 1: into the weird, the bizarre, the random, and Stucky's question
10:51
Speaker 1: of the Week. Hey, this is a dumb question. Let
10:56
Speaker 1: me ask you a personal question kind of question.
10:58
Speaker 2: Is that this question?
11:01
Speaker 3: All right? If for the next five years you, in
11:09
Speaker 3: order to have a cell phone, you could only have
11:13
Speaker 3: three This does not include phone calls and texts so
11:20
Speaker 3: on and like internet, So on your phone you're gonna
11:24
Speaker 3: have on like your homepage, You're gonna have your your
11:27
Speaker 3: phone icon, your uh text, your email, and your browser.
11:36
Speaker 3: Those are given you're allowed to have them. You can
11:38
Speaker 3: only have three apps on your phone, and you have
11:43
Speaker 3: to choose them, and then that's it. You cannot you
11:45
Speaker 3: can't swap them out. You only can have three apps
11:47
Speaker 3: on your phone for the next five years.
11:51
Speaker 1: Oh this is so easy, so easy. I'm glad you
11:54
Speaker 1: gave us the freebies there. And those were you said, text, email,
11:59
Speaker 1: browser calls. Those are the locks.
12:02
Speaker 3: Those are the locks.
12:04
Speaker 1: Those are the ones at the bottom of my screen.
12:05
Speaker 1: So great call on that. I don't know if that's
12:08
Speaker 1: if that's the same for everybody out there, but still, I.
12:11
Speaker 3: Mean, you could change it, but that's that's how I
12:12
Speaker 3: think gets to fall.
12:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think that's the way to go.
12:18
Speaker 3: Gammra is an app that you would have to choose.
12:23
Speaker 1: Oh damn, that's now Okay. They got a little tougher,
12:25
Speaker 1: So I was gonna go with my Notes app I
12:29
Speaker 1: use every day. It's loaded reminders, show prep everything things
12:38
Speaker 1: about my son that I notes from the past, moment
12:42
Speaker 1: when he was born and that, like, all that stuff
12:45
Speaker 1: lives on my notepad, so that's very important to me.
12:47
Speaker 1: The maps app, yeah, I have completely just sort of
12:54
Speaker 1: leaned into technology as the decades have gone by. I
12:57
Speaker 1: could not find my way around the corner without my
13:01
Speaker 1: Maps app. And then I was gonna say, I know
13:03
Speaker 1: that this is hey company shill. The Action Network app
13:07
Speaker 1: might be the app that I opened the most track
13:11
Speaker 1: bets and all of that great stuff that you get
13:14
Speaker 1: the great advice from people like both of you. So
13:17
Speaker 1: those would be my three. But then I'd have to
13:19
Speaker 1: eliminate my camera. I guess I would buy a camera. Yeah,
13:22
Speaker 1: I'm gonna stick with those three action Notes and Maps.
13:28
Speaker 3: Maps, No chance. I don't. I don't go enough places
13:34
Speaker 3: like i'm I'm home, or I go to my wife's bar,
13:40
Speaker 3: or like food shopping, or I go to the airport
13:44
Speaker 3: down the street. I don't need to. I don't need
13:45
Speaker 3: a map app, so that I'm not I'm not taking
13:51
Speaker 3: I'm also definitely not using a notes app because now
13:54
Speaker 3: I get that you use it a lot, but I
13:57
Speaker 3: never used my notes app. But if you went into
13:59
Speaker 3: my teen, I text myself all day throughout the.
14:04
Speaker 2: Day, you text yourself.
14:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's essentially the same thing.
14:08
Speaker 3: It's just the same thing. It's just I have a
14:09
Speaker 3: text just I text myself. So I just pull up
14:12
Speaker 3: text and I'll say, like it could be like a tweet.
14:15
Speaker 3: I'll tweet to myself. Well, actually I just bookmark tweets,
14:17
Speaker 3: but it's usually just like a note or look into
14:21
Speaker 3: this or this stat or something that I came across
14:25
Speaker 3: one while watching a game that I want to dig into.
14:29
Speaker 3: So I text myself all the time. So that's that's
14:33
Speaker 3: how I handle the notes. Mine by far, I mean,
14:36
Speaker 3: mine is very very easy, Like I don't even have
14:39
Speaker 3: to think twice about it. It's the three that I
14:42
Speaker 3: use most. I mean, my screen time is eighteen hours
14:47
Speaker 3: every day and it's mostly action app Twitter, and I
14:59
Speaker 3: would need a sport book app, so shout out DraftKings
15:02
Speaker 3: sponsored the show, so I need a This is what
15:05
Speaker 3: I'd spend all my time doing. Tweeting, blogging, bets, doing
15:09
Speaker 3: stuff for the and then placing bets. So those are
15:13
Speaker 3: my three. That's what I spend my entire time doing.
15:17
Speaker 3: I would miss I do take I like to take
15:21
Speaker 3: breaks from work and and scroll doom, scroll TikTok. Sometimes
15:30
Speaker 3: we would miss that.
15:31
Speaker 1: Yeah, that would be it would be tough to give
15:34
Speaker 1: some of these. Not being able to watch a football game,
15:40
Speaker 1: we go you.
15:40
Speaker 3: Know, podcasts, I'd have to do it on my laptop.
15:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's how I kind of came to My answer
15:48
Speaker 2: was the things that I don't use on desktop very
15:51
Speaker 2: often or can't use on desktop. So I use Twitter
15:53
Speaker 2: on desktop all the time. I can use the Action
15:55
Speaker 2: you know website on here. I can use DraftKings on
15:58
Speaker 2: my computer. The things that I can not use on
16:00
Speaker 2: my computer obviously the camera maps, and then Instagram because
16:05
Speaker 2: the Instagram like on the browser sucks and you can't
16:08
Speaker 2: upload anything for their so for work, I would have,
16:10
Speaker 2: like I make money on Instagram obviously, So it would
16:13
Speaker 2: have to be those three because those are the things
16:15
Speaker 2: on the like I can't use on a browser.
16:18
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a good way to think about it.
16:21
Speaker 1: I would miss banking on the app. Yeah, the website
16:25
Speaker 1: that would suck. But that I mean, you just you know,
16:27
Speaker 1: you got to you gotta make concessions here.
16:29
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would actually miss. The one app I would
16:32
Speaker 3: really miss is probably ESPN app for like streaming games
16:37
Speaker 3: at any any out like I will always where if
16:42
Speaker 3: I'm out, or just as an extra screen, or even
16:45
Speaker 3: to a home with all my screens off an extra
16:46
Speaker 3: game screen streaming on my phone. I would really miss that.
16:48
Speaker 3: That's why I'm looking at my most used apps that
16:51
Speaker 3: for streaming I would miss, but uh yeah, that's what
16:54
Speaker 3: I would choose. Haven't you got our good answer for this?
16:56
Speaker 4: Not really, because when you look at my apps and
16:58
Speaker 4: you look at like what I use the most, I
16:59
Speaker 4: don't think that's the answer because I think like the
17:01
Speaker 4: banking stuff, and that is what I tend to like
17:05
Speaker 4: not appreciate. Like, you know, my most used apps like
17:08
Speaker 4: X slack action.
17:11
Speaker 3: The operators say X.
17:14
Speaker 1: I don't know a quick aside. How do you find
17:17
Speaker 1: what apps you use the most? Where's that information?
17:21
Speaker 2: So if you go to your settings, you can see
17:23
Speaker 2: like your usage screen time.
17:25
Speaker 1: It's called are you talking amongst yourselves? We'll be looking
17:29
Speaker 1: this up.
17:29
Speaker 2: I mean, I just can't believe Evan used Twitter's stripper name.
17:34
Speaker 2: That's kind of a vendor.
17:36
Speaker 1: Well, good job by them.
17:37
Speaker 3: That's some marketing wins.
17:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I would have to use that. I don't know.
17:43
Speaker 2: Buying a camera wouldn't work for me, because like what
17:46
Speaker 2: do you do when your dog's just doing something cute
17:48
Speaker 2: or your kids doing something cute? You just go, like
17:50
Speaker 2: grab your camera from wherever it is.
17:53
Speaker 4: No, you're right, camera and banking were two things I
17:55
Speaker 4: actually didn't think about. But I don't know how I
17:57
Speaker 4: could leave those two things behind because I just don't.
18:00
Speaker 4: I don't want to walk into a bank.
18:01
Speaker 1: Could you imagine a camera go on your you.
18:05
Speaker 3: Can go on your laptop to your bank.
18:08
Speaker 4: You could.
18:09
Speaker 3: That's fair, That is fair. I don't think I've ever
18:11
Speaker 3: logged onto my bank or like Vanguard Accouncil on a laptop.
18:17
Speaker 3: But I mean you thought you were going.
18:19
Speaker 2: To say on your phone.
18:20
Speaker 3: I was like, what, Yeah, okay, that was my question.
18:23
Speaker 1: Anyways, fantastic for action or distraction. This is.
18:30
Speaker 3: I'm not I want it on the action.
18:35
Speaker 1: For rams Seahawks. We have a prior matchup to go
18:39
Speaker 1: off of, not the case for the AFC title game.
18:42
Speaker 1: So what I did today is I took a little
18:44
Speaker 1: dive into common opponents for the Patriots and the Broncos,
18:47
Speaker 1: and here is what I found. They both played the Raiders, Bills, Titans, Jets, Bengals, Giants,
18:54
Speaker 1: and Chargers. The Patriots went eight and two in those games.
18:59
Speaker 1: The Broncos went nine and one. Patriots average margin plus
19:04
Speaker 1: ten point one, Bronco's average margin just six and a half.
19:08
Speaker 1: And that was with b nix Action or distraction. Kendra
19:12
Speaker 1: as this being anything that resembles a factor of analysis
19:15
Speaker 1: for you.
19:16
Speaker 2: I think it's a good thing to look at, but
19:18
Speaker 2: it's not something that I personally looked at when I
19:21
Speaker 2: was getting to the window on one of my options
19:24
Speaker 2: for our parlay later and to be honest, kind of
19:28
Speaker 2: something that I thought about, do we really, let's be
19:31
Speaker 2: honest with ourselves here, do we really think that there
19:34
Speaker 2: is that large of a drop off between Bonix and
19:38
Speaker 2: Jared's Didham Because I personally do not.
19:42
Speaker 1: Well, the sports books would disagree, because the number has
19:45
Speaker 1: swung wildly and it seems like there is a divide.
19:51
Speaker 1: This is the time of year where public versus sharp
19:54
Speaker 1: money is more pronounced than any other time in the year,
19:57
Speaker 1: this week, next week, and it seems to me reading
20:01
Speaker 1: the market like the public is all over New England
20:04
Speaker 1: and the sharpbetters out there are all over the Broncos
20:07
Speaker 1: because this number has swung too wildly. So it depends
20:12
Speaker 1: on what side of the aisle you're on. But the
20:14
Speaker 1: sports books are obviously they're they are welcoming the Broncos.
20:20
Speaker 1: They are welcoming, welcoming sharp action on the Broncos as
20:22
Speaker 1: it stands right now. To me, I don't know I
20:25
Speaker 1: am pretty comfortable saying I have no idea. Jarrett Stidham
20:29
Speaker 1: hasn't played in two years, and I do think we're
20:35
Speaker 1: underrating maybe not the total body of work of bo Nicks,
20:39
Speaker 1: but specifically what he does in key situations. The Broncos
20:43
Speaker 1: have orchestrated a number of fourth quarter comebacks. They're one
20:47
Speaker 1: of the most past happy teams in the NFL. In fact,
20:50
Speaker 1: bo Nicks had more pass attempts than any other quarterback
20:53
Speaker 1: in the league this year and they were the one seed.
20:57
Speaker 1: There has to be a correlation there between his quality
21:00
Speaker 1: in comebacks late in games. You need quarterbacks to do
21:03
Speaker 1: that in overall pass attempts. You have to have trust
21:05
Speaker 1: from your coach in order to obtain that, and so
21:09
Speaker 1: I think there. I do think we are perhaps overthinking
21:14
Speaker 1: this drop off of Knicks to stead of not being
21:17
Speaker 1: a big deal, when when in fact it is. That's that,
21:20
Speaker 1: But I'm not one hundred percent confident on that. That's
21:23
Speaker 1: just sort of where my mind has led me on
21:25
Speaker 1: this debate.
21:26
Speaker 3: I mean, no one saying it's not a big deal,
21:28
Speaker 3: just like drop going from Nix isn't isn't an elite,
21:33
Speaker 3: elite quarterback by any stretch. I mean, no one can
21:35
Speaker 3: make that argument. And like a drop off from an
21:38
Speaker 3: elite quarterback to just like an average backup would be
21:44
Speaker 3: you know, in some cases seven points.
21:47
Speaker 1: But it's an average backup that hasn't played in two
21:50
Speaker 1: years that is making his first start of the season
21:53
Speaker 1: in the most high pressure situation.
21:56
Speaker 2: So it's I think that helps them though, because I think.
22:01
Speaker 3: We saw he It's we saw Philip Rivers not playing
22:06
Speaker 3: five years ago against the Seattle defense and he should
22:09
Speaker 3: have beat them. Speaking of the Seahawks, they should have
22:12
Speaker 3: won that game if not for a sixty yard field goal.
22:16
Speaker 3: And he had familiarity with the system. I mean, Sidham
22:20
Speaker 3: has been around for years under Peyton, so has familiarity
22:23
Speaker 3: with the system. Here's the difference is that with Stidham.
22:28
Speaker 3: A lot of times you get these backups that come
22:32
Speaker 3: in and one they don't have any mobility whatsoever, which
22:37
Speaker 3: kills them. Stidham is sneakily mobile, which always is helpful.
22:42
Speaker 3: But most importantly in addition to his familiarity with the system,
22:47
Speaker 3: is he has he's working behind one of the best
22:50
Speaker 3: offensive lines in the NFL. That's enormous, and with an
22:55
Speaker 3: elite play caller like, this isn't your normal situation or
22:59
Speaker 3: a backup are back coming in and you know you're
23:04
Speaker 3: You go back to what Stidham and look Stidham's numbers.
23:07
Speaker 3: He's only had four starts since twenty twenty two. If
23:10
Speaker 3: you remove garbage time and you look at all the
23:13
Speaker 3: quarterbacks with a minimum of one hundred snaps since twenty
23:16
Speaker 3: twenty two, there's eighty two of them. He ranks nineteenth
23:20
Speaker 3: in success rate, that's basically Jalen Hurts thirty third, and
23:25
Speaker 3: adjusted EPA per play that's basically Baker Mayfield forty first
23:29
Speaker 3: in EPA plus completion percentage of expectation that's basically Mitch Trubisky,
23:33
Speaker 3: which I think is like a fair comp This isn't
23:36
Speaker 3: like Max Brosmer or a bottom of the barrel back up.
23:39
Speaker 2: He's a better back. He's one of the better backups
23:41
Speaker 2: in the league.
23:42
Speaker 3: I agree. And those four games he's when he started
23:45
Speaker 3: two were with the twenty twenty two Raiders, who I
23:49
Speaker 3: mean threw three.
23:50
Speaker 2: Hundred and sixty five yards in that game.
23:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, one against that really good forty nine Ers defense.
23:54
Speaker 3: But he that Raiders offense was twenty fourth in DVOA,
23:58
Speaker 3: twenty fifth in press aratee allowed. The twenty twenty three
24:02
Speaker 3: Broncos were twenty seventh on offense Dvoa thirty first in
24:07
Speaker 3: pressure rate allowed. So he was in awful situations with
24:11
Speaker 3: bad offensive lines, which won't be the case here. And
24:18
Speaker 3: there's this there's an uncertainty factor. It's one of the
24:20
Speaker 3: reasons why I like the Broncos first quarter in this
24:24
Speaker 3: game as well plus a half of point. There's some
24:28
Speaker 3: uncertainty with what like what they're gonna do with sidem.
24:32
Speaker 3: I assume they're gonna get super creative here with packages,
24:34
Speaker 3: personnel uses. Maybe you go heavier and they're gonna have
24:38
Speaker 3: some Peyton's gonna have some curve balls here. And by
24:40
Speaker 3: the way, Bo Nicks this year has been arguably the
24:45
Speaker 3: worst quarterback in the NFL. In the first quarter, he's
24:48
Speaker 3: thirty first in EPA plus completion centergy of expectation out
24:51
Speaker 3: of thirty two quarterbacks, tied with basically tie with Flacco
24:54
Speaker 3: for dead last twenty seventh adjusted EPAPRI play twenty ninth
24:57
Speaker 3: and success rate thirty first in completion set jewel expectation.
25:01
Speaker 3: You mentioned all the stuff he's done late. That's where
25:03
Speaker 3: a lot of Knicks's value has come, but early on
25:05
Speaker 3: in games he's been really, really, really poor. So they
25:09
Speaker 3: drop off can't be that significant to especially in the
25:12
Speaker 3: first quarter, to one of the worst quarterbacks in the
25:13
Speaker 3: first quarter this year, to what Stidham is with all
25:17
Speaker 3: of the uncertainty, you also have your it's Denver in
25:20
Speaker 3: January at home, Like with a with an inexperienced quarterback,
25:25
Speaker 3: you're gonna have that crowd noise, the outstude, the defense
25:28
Speaker 3: is gonna come juiced. I think they can get pressure
25:31
Speaker 3: on May And by the way, you might say, well,
25:33
Speaker 3: May he has been very He's his numbers are elite
25:35
Speaker 3: in the first quarter, but if you.
25:37
Speaker 2: Break it back posts terrible postseason.
25:39
Speaker 3: He's been the worst quarterback so far in the postseason
25:41
Speaker 3: in the first quarter, even worse than Shroud. And if
25:44
Speaker 3: you look at even from an average to above average
25:48
Speaker 3: defenses he's faced this year. And it's stretching it because
25:51
Speaker 3: the Patriots have played nobody I'm including like the Steelers, Falcon, Saints, Raiders,
25:57
Speaker 3: and the Ravens in this They were two and six
26:00
Speaker 3: in the first quarter. They averaged only four and a
26:02
Speaker 3: half points per game, They were shut out three times,
26:05
Speaker 3: scored more than a touchdown only once. So yeah, I
26:10
Speaker 3: think that the Denver pressure can cause may issues. But additionally,
26:15
Speaker 3: you see this when like your star or your quarterback
26:17
Speaker 3: is out that first game, everyone else kind of steps up.
26:20
Speaker 3: You also have that uncertainty factor. You start, you have
26:23
Speaker 3: these new looks that the other team isn't prepared for,
26:26
Speaker 3: and then now all of the pressure shifts to New England,
26:30
Speaker 3: all of it, right, Like you who can't pass up
26:32
Speaker 3: this opportunity in the AFC you got to go through
26:35
Speaker 3: Mahomes for every year for the last seven years. The
26:37
Speaker 3: Patriots finally get the Natcy Championship game and they have
26:39
Speaker 3: to go through Jared Stidham, like all of the pressures
26:42
Speaker 3: on New England here. So yeah, I think this is
26:47
Speaker 3: it's too much of an adjustment. I would set that
26:49
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if more Denver money comes. But
26:53
Speaker 3: as you said, public money can have a say depending
26:56
Speaker 3: on how much chart money is, on how much respected
27:00
Speaker 3: on the other side, and there might there could be
27:01
Speaker 3: conflicting opinions too on both which I could see. There's
27:04
Speaker 3: a lot of uncertainty in this game. There is a
27:06
Speaker 3: world where Stidham is a disaster.
27:08
Speaker 1: I fully admit that, but I don't think we're gonna
27:11
Speaker 1: see that quote unquote sharp action come in on New
27:14
Speaker 1: England until this number drops to it's at four and
27:18
Speaker 1: a half in some places, if you might get some
27:21
Speaker 1: or right, I.
27:23
Speaker 3: Would put set to I think this line should be
27:25
Speaker 3: like I would set if I was I would set
27:28
Speaker 3: it at three and a half. I'm at like three
27:29
Speaker 3: point three.
27:30
Speaker 1: So Evan, what do you think as far as the
27:33
Speaker 1: way that this action tilts, where the where the bypoint
27:36
Speaker 1: will be on New England.
27:38
Speaker 4: I'd be shocked to see it roll below four. I
27:41
Speaker 4: feel like four is going to be like a bit
27:42
Speaker 4: of a demarcation point would.
27:44
Speaker 3: Be my guess.
27:45
Speaker 4: I was kind of shocked for it to go to
27:47
Speaker 4: five and a half and six. But again, I mean,
27:51
Speaker 4: right now, you've got like three quarters of the tickets
27:52
Speaker 4: and the money on New England. So at this rate
27:55
Speaker 4: you've seen the line come down, because I'm guessing you've
27:57
Speaker 4: seen some big bets on Denver. But at this right
28:00
Speaker 4: as you get I mean, you don't really see big money,
28:02
Speaker 4: especially respected money, usually until we get closer to the weekend.
28:06
Speaker 4: So uh, I think it could close. I think it's
28:11
Speaker 4: right around where it is.
28:14
Speaker 3: I think it's going to close for some Sharper.
28:18
Speaker 1: Shops, Kendrick. Before I get to the next question, what
28:20
Speaker 1: is the what's the conversation been in your area of
28:24
Speaker 1: the country as far as the confidence level are New
28:28
Speaker 1: England fans just assuming that this is around.
28:31
Speaker 2: Well here the three people here, I think the Patriots
28:35
Speaker 2: are absolutely going to beat the ship out of the Broncos.
28:39
Speaker 2: And I think that that is insane, especially when you
28:43
Speaker 2: take the history of New England playing in Denver in
28:48
Speaker 2: the postseason into consideration. I just think people here are
28:51
Speaker 2: way too cocky and are getting off on the fact
28:54
Speaker 2: that they've had an easy schedule, and it's insane to
28:59
Speaker 2: me how confident people here are. I don't think that
29:02
Speaker 2: I've heard anybody at our station say that they think
29:04
Speaker 2: the Broncos can even hang in this game this week?
29:07
Speaker 1: What sounds about, right le insane? We get to two
29:10
Speaker 1: more and then we've got a pickle prop to get
29:12
Speaker 1: to and our two Kings and a Queen Paul Lay
29:15
Speaker 1: The Seahawks have allowed just seven points in the second
29:17
Speaker 1: half over their last three games, and in his last
29:20
Speaker 1: three playoff games as a defensive coordinator and a head
29:23
Speaker 1: coach like McDaniel, or like McDonalds, Mike McDonald's defense has
29:31
Speaker 1: allowed to combine zero second half points. So action or
29:34
Speaker 1: distraction on this handicap Rams first half money line parlayed
29:39
Speaker 1: with the Seahawks full game money line plus four seventy
29:42
Speaker 1: or if this is more your style, bet the Rams
29:45
Speaker 1: first half and then live bet Seattle when we go
29:49
Speaker 1: to the halftime break. Whichever is more your style, Stucky,
29:52
Speaker 1: action or distraction on this creative way to play the
29:55
Speaker 1: NFC Championship game.
30:00
Speaker 3: I have no interest in doing that. I think this
30:02
Speaker 3: is all gonna come down to the game plan. Also
30:05
Speaker 3: the health of the quarterbacks, as we mentioned, but it's
30:10
Speaker 3: it's that chess match, and it's just it's very, very
30:13
Speaker 3: difficult to predict unless you're in the room with McVeigh
30:18
Speaker 3: and McDonald I. I do think that if the Rams,
30:27
Speaker 3: if the Rams get up like, I don't think that's
30:32
Speaker 3: I especially by margin, that's not ideal for Seattle. I
30:35
Speaker 3: think they're toasts. Then I don't see Seattle. I know
30:38
Speaker 3: they came back the first meeting, but again the Rams
30:41
Speaker 3: were not fully healthy, and it took miracles, took a
30:45
Speaker 3: punt return touchdown, it took an incomplete two point conversion
30:48
Speaker 3: that got scooped up, and then the Rams also missed
30:52
Speaker 3: a field goal that would have won the game, and
30:54
Speaker 3: then Seattle eventually wins on a two point conversion in
30:57
Speaker 3: overtime because the Rams can and just tee off on
31:00
Speaker 3: Donald and I don't, and with that oblique injury, I
31:05
Speaker 3: don't think that would end well. I think Seattle's script
31:08
Speaker 3: this year, SAMs that miraculous comeback is their defense and
31:13
Speaker 3: special teams have come out and made plays early and
31:19
Speaker 3: given them leads, and then their offense just can play
31:24
Speaker 3: complimentary football. You don't have to do too much. I mean,
31:27
Speaker 3: look at all their wins, so many blowout wins this
31:29
Speaker 3: year they've had because their defense and special teams have
31:32
Speaker 3: made plays. That's who this team is. A lot of
31:35
Speaker 3: people remember this Rams, this Seahawks team early in the year,
31:38
Speaker 3: when Donald was hitting JSN down the field every other play.
31:43
Speaker 3: That's not who they are, and that's not who they've
31:45
Speaker 3: been that team for a while. Yeah, the whole second
31:49
Speaker 3: half of the season, so yeah, I mean it just
31:54
Speaker 3: I mean, going back here Donald, weeks one through nine,
31:57
Speaker 3: he was third in EPA per play, first in yards
31:59
Speaker 3: per attempt. Week ten, he's twenty seventh in EPAPRI play,
32:02
Speaker 3: twelfth in yards per attempt, and that's because teams have
32:06
Speaker 3: adjusted to their offense. It's one of the reasons the
32:08
Speaker 3: run game now is a little bit more successful. They
32:09
Speaker 3: were twenty seventh in EPAPRI play over the first nine weeks.
32:13
Speaker 3: Since then they're eleventh because they're facing more light, more
32:17
Speaker 3: lighter boxes. Teams are saying, Okay, run the ball. I
32:19
Speaker 3: don't care, we're gonna, you know, take away the explosive play.
32:22
Speaker 3: Early on in the season, they were just running it
32:24
Speaker 3: into heavier boxes with heavier personality. Didn't care that it
32:27
Speaker 3: was inefficient because then it was setting up the play
32:29
Speaker 3: action game and then the deep shots. Well, defenses have
32:32
Speaker 3: adjusted and said, we're gonna bracket JSN, we're gonna take
32:35
Speaker 3: away or exposed to pass, go ahead and run the ball.
32:37
Speaker 3: The Seahawks are fine doing that as long as especially
32:41
Speaker 3: they're playing from ahead. Gets a little bit more problematic
32:44
Speaker 3: if they're playing from behind. So yeah, actually, I don't
32:50
Speaker 3: like that. I think this is going to come down
32:53
Speaker 3: to just the game plans early on. And I mean
32:57
Speaker 3: one thing that I will say for your for your
33:02
Speaker 3: approach or for that suggestion, is maybe the fatigue sets
33:06
Speaker 3: in late for the Rams after all of this travel
33:10
Speaker 3: over the past month or two, and that's that advantage
33:13
Speaker 3: for the Seahawks shows more in the second half. But
33:17
Speaker 3: I'm going to say distraction.
33:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have a hard time personally figuring out how
33:21
Speaker 1: the game script is going to go early on in
33:23
Speaker 1: this one, but we're going to eliminate Rams first half
33:27
Speaker 1: as an option here, Kendra. Many months ago, the mentalists
33:30
Speaker 1: predicted a Rams Bronco Super Bowl using Stafford Adams, Kyron
33:35
Speaker 1: Kobe Durant Oz Perlman, I think his name is predicted
33:40
Speaker 1: the exact outcome of the upcoming Super Bowl. His pick
33:43
Speaker 1: was the Rams to beat the Broncos twenty three to fourteen.
33:46
Speaker 1: So I mean you've asked your uber driver for some
33:50
Speaker 1: picks that have paid off. So action or distraction on
33:53
Speaker 1: the clairvoyance of one Oz Pearlman. Action.
33:57
Speaker 2: My favorite holiday is Groundhog Day. So the fact that
34:02
Speaker 2: we have a clairvoyant rodent, I can't get away from clairvoyance. Now,
34:06
Speaker 2: it's the best holiday. I'm pro clairvoyance. I also would
34:09
Speaker 2: love this for my bets, and this is exactly what
34:12
Speaker 2: I think is going to happen. So action from me,
34:15
Speaker 2: I love this. I think that this is perfect and
34:16
Speaker 2: it's everything that I want. I think that it would
34:19
Speaker 2: be hysterical to have eight Jared's Didham Super Bowl.
34:22
Speaker 1: Well, this would be your longest payout if you were
34:25
Speaker 1: to parlay the Broncos and the Rams to meet up
34:28
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl, and then you can just kick back,
34:30
Speaker 1: kick your feet up, and let everybody else bet the
34:32
Speaker 1: Super Bowl while you count your dollars still to come.
34:34
Speaker 1: Two Kings and a Queen get nominated on our weekly parlay.
34:37
Speaker 1: But first, the word about Draft Kings from the first Lady.
34:40
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35:12
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35:15
Speaker 1: It is the triumphant return of Kendra's pickle prop. Let's
35:20
Speaker 1: pop that jar back open. What are we looking at? Okay,
35:24
Speaker 1: we're in a pickle. Now, I'm really in a pickle.
35:27
Speaker 3: Now, all right, look we're gonna pickle again.
35:30
Speaker 2: Hey, so I'm looking at some Stidham rushing props. We've
35:36
Speaker 2: kind of talked a little bit about how mobile he
35:38
Speaker 2: actually is, and I get that the Patriots game plan
35:41
Speaker 2: is going to be to stack the box, have Milton
35:43
Speaker 2: Williams waiting there for the run. They're gonna make Jared
35:45
Speaker 2: Ssidam beat him with his arm. But I don't think
35:48
Speaker 2: people are taking into account how mobile Jarrett actually is.
35:51
Speaker 2: And I think that this number kind of shows that
35:53
Speaker 2: I was on DraftKings earlier. Fifteen plus rushing yards from
35:56
Speaker 2: him is minus one eleven or over twenty is plus
35:59
Speaker 2: one one forty eight. I think over twenty that's kind
36:03
Speaker 2: of a really really good price in my opinion. But
36:07
Speaker 2: what do you guys think? I'm kind of sitting here
36:09
Speaker 2: on which one to get on Does he run a lot?
36:13
Speaker 1: I mean his stats in the past, which we have
36:17
Speaker 1: a very limited sample of he's pretty mobile.
36:21
Speaker 3: No, he doesn't run a ton in the past. Yet
36:23
Speaker 3: he does have some ability, but he was playing behind
36:26
Speaker 3: atrocious offensive line line with offenses that didn't use the
36:31
Speaker 3: quarterback to run, so I could see it.
36:35
Speaker 2: But a lot, Yeah, I was gonna say, they make
36:39
Speaker 2: both right.
36:39
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna Peyton's got to get creative, and
36:44
Speaker 3: they use Nick's legs a ton, so I think it
36:46
Speaker 3: would make sense to, you know, have some of those
36:49
Speaker 3: same plays and use Stidham's legs. And the Patriots the
36:54
Speaker 3: one constant, the one thing that I do believe in
36:57
Speaker 3: with the Patriots, like you could you could go. I mean,
37:01
Speaker 3: May is very very good, but you cannot deny that
37:04
Speaker 3: he played no top ten defenses all year until the
37:07
Speaker 3: past two weeks, and he has six fumbles and hasn't
37:09
Speaker 3: looked as effective. The offensive line is problematic, but their
37:16
Speaker 3: run defense is legitimate when healthy, and now they're fully healthy.
37:21
Speaker 3: You saw them slip a little bit the end of
37:23
Speaker 3: the year when you had Milton Williams in particular reserved
37:26
Speaker 3: Tonga and they had some injuries at the linebacker and
37:28
Speaker 3: their run defense slipped a bit, but when they were healthy,
37:31
Speaker 3: you know, over the first twelve weeks of the season,
37:32
Speaker 3: and then you know, since the very end of the
37:34
Speaker 3: regular season they got fully healthy. That run defense is dominant.
37:38
Speaker 3: You can't really run on them so traditionally with your
37:41
Speaker 3: running back. So that is one thing that I am
37:44
Speaker 3: as someone who bet the bron because that is one
37:46
Speaker 3: thing that I am worried about. You have a backup quarterback,
37:49
Speaker 3: a really good offensive line, but I don't know how
37:52
Speaker 3: much Sitton is going to be able to rely on
37:54
Speaker 3: a complimentary rushing attack, which is always a nice thing
37:56
Speaker 3: to have. But because of that, one of the ways
38:00
Speaker 3: that Peyton can counteract that is to get more creative
38:05
Speaker 3: in the run game. So that could be you know,
38:08
Speaker 3: some jet sweeps, getting Memes involved and then using Stidham's
38:13
Speaker 3: legs rolling him out. Maybe you know, some designed runs.
38:18
Speaker 3: He's going to have to scramble a bit. So yeah,
38:21
Speaker 3: I don't mind that look at all.
38:24
Speaker 1: I kind of think it's all or nothing either Stidham
38:27
Speaker 1: is going to be involved in the run game, and
38:28
Speaker 1: you go with the bigger payout.
38:30
Speaker 3: Or yeah I like it twenty plus more.
38:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that Yeah, twenty plus or pass at
38:37
Speaker 1: plus one forty eight for Kendrim Middleton, You feel better
38:40
Speaker 1: about that one.
38:42
Speaker 2: No, I feel good about it just because, like I said,
38:44
Speaker 2: like they do have bo run straight down the middle
38:47
Speaker 2: of the field often, and I could see them trying
38:50
Speaker 2: to get Jarrett involved just because they're expecting them to
38:54
Speaker 2: try to run the ball so much that they are
38:57
Speaker 2: going to have to get creative. And I think that
38:58
Speaker 2: that's one of the ways that they can. And I
39:00
Speaker 2: don't think that people consider how mobile Jarrett really can be.
39:04
Speaker 2: And like Stucky said, he's played behind some really bad
39:06
Speaker 2: offensive lines. So when I was looking at props today,
39:09
Speaker 2: it was just something that I thought really kind of
39:12
Speaker 2: jumped off the page at me.
39:14
Speaker 1: Yeah.
39:15
Speaker 3: The one thing, the only thing, the thing that I'll
39:17
Speaker 3: be worried about this is this is what makes the
39:19
Speaker 3: playoffs so difficult to bet. I'm number one, Like, we
39:24
Speaker 3: know who these teams are. In this case, it's there's
39:27
Speaker 3: a lot of uncertainy. It's not necessarily true, but this
39:30
Speaker 3: is when teams throw complete change ups, right, So you
39:33
Speaker 3: got I spend I still spend all of my time
39:36
Speaker 3: digging into the matchups schematically, but you're gonna have the
39:40
Speaker 3: other teams know that too, right, So in these high
39:42
Speaker 3: leverage games, that's when you want to switch things up.
39:45
Speaker 3: So over the last four their four games, past four games,
39:48
Speaker 3: the Patriots have been blitzing at like a floor as level.
39:50
Speaker 3: It's like forty three, forty four percent, forty two percent,
39:53
Speaker 3: I think, all like between forty and forty five percent
39:56
Speaker 3: blitzing a ton. And you know they're going up against
40:00
Speaker 3: the Chargers offensive line, the Texans beat up offensive line
40:05
Speaker 3: against you know, then they play the Dolphins and the
40:08
Speaker 3: Jets in the final two games.
40:10
Speaker 1: So do they.
40:14
Speaker 3: Do they continue to do that this week? If they do,
40:17
Speaker 3: I think it'll open up some opportunities for Stidham to
40:20
Speaker 3: break some and and this is just me, just general
40:25
Speaker 3: thoughts in the game. Or do they say, you know,
40:28
Speaker 3: we're we're actually going up against one of the better
40:31
Speaker 3: offensive lines in the NFL, So let's dial back the
40:37
Speaker 3: blitz and just sit back and make Stidham, you know,
40:43
Speaker 3: throw into lots of zone coverage and read the defenses.
40:46
Speaker 3: And they and the Patriots do do a excellent job
40:50
Speaker 3: of changing up their looks on the back end, so
40:53
Speaker 3: maybe you get more coverage and less blitzing, So I mean,
40:58
Speaker 3: they're gonna mix it up and just say and as
41:00
Speaker 3: as maybe they don't blitz as much as they have been.
41:03
Speaker 3: So I'm curious to see how the Patriots approach this
41:07
Speaker 3: from a game planning perspective. And additionally, you could see
41:12
Speaker 3: I could envision the one of the other reasons I
41:14
Speaker 3: like the Broncos first quarter as well. I could see
41:17
Speaker 3: the Patriots coming out very conservatively on offense. I know
41:25
Speaker 3: that's not Drake May's nature, but and they've started slow
41:30
Speaker 3: both playoff games, but in Denver on the road, the
41:37
Speaker 3: last thing you want to do here is especially when
41:40
Speaker 3: you don't know what Stidham and this offense is going
41:42
Speaker 3: to look like, right like, there's a chance that Sidham
41:43
Speaker 3: is just a disaster. The last thing you want to
41:45
Speaker 3: do is, you know, Nick Benito and company force May
41:53
Speaker 3: into you know, the strip, sack them, go up seven
41:57
Speaker 3: to nothing, and the crowds on crazy. Stidham doesn't have
42:01
Speaker 3: to he can play from ahead. So the Patriots might
42:05
Speaker 3: be a little bit more conservative here early on in
42:08
Speaker 3: the game, and because they're just there might just be
42:11
Speaker 3: a chance that Stidham is a complete disaster. But that's
42:16
Speaker 3: that's gonna be the key. May has to feel pressure
42:21
Speaker 3: much better than he did against the Chargers and the Texans.
42:25
Speaker 3: He has a forty five percent pressure to sack ratio.
42:29
Speaker 3: It's his one week area. If you look at his
42:32
Speaker 3: whole body of work, it's sack pressure leading the sacks.
42:35
Speaker 3: He was twenty eighth in the NFL in that department
42:37
Speaker 3: at like twenty two percent. That's doubled in the playoffs. Now,
42:40
Speaker 3: granted he's gone against the Chargers and Texans defense, but
42:43
Speaker 3: he's getting another great defense on the road with a
42:45
Speaker 3: weak offensive line. They're gonna have to deal with the noise.
42:48
Speaker 3: So I'm curious to see number one, how much the
42:50
Speaker 3: Patriots blitz and then how aggressive are they early on
42:53
Speaker 3: against this defense. So yeah, a lot of things though
42:57
Speaker 3: to watch early that I'm watching.
42:58
Speaker 2: It's so big of because I'm so in the thick
43:01
Speaker 2: of it here, I feel like I over pay attention
43:04
Speaker 2: to it. But to you guys outside of the New
43:07
Speaker 2: England market, how much of a liability do you think
43:10
Speaker 2: Will Campbell has been.
43:12
Speaker 3: Huge? I mean, get up like a ten and a
43:15
Speaker 3: half eleven percent pressure rate since he returned from injury.
43:18
Speaker 3: His I've always had some questions about his ability as
43:23
Speaker 3: a blind side tackle against the elite. Now, that doesn't
43:26
Speaker 3: mean he can't become very very good. It's still he's
43:28
Speaker 3: a rookie. But yeah, the Texans were clearly to Will.
43:33
Speaker 1: On Will crime. Yeah, Will anderson ate them alive and
43:37
Speaker 1: on Will crime.
43:40
Speaker 3: Oh wait, look like an All Pro going against them
43:42
Speaker 3: the week before. So yeah, I have a lot of
43:46
Speaker 3: concerns of how he's going to hold up against the
43:50
Speaker 3: Denver pass rushers. And this is a Denver teen, it's
43:53
Speaker 3: you know, top five and pressure without blitzing. They are
43:57
Speaker 3: going to bring blitzes. They are going to be aggressive.
44:00
Speaker 3: And there's no question the Pages have been lucky with
44:02
Speaker 3: turnovers and love with fumbles, and the Broncos defense has
44:06
Speaker 3: been unlucky up until last week all year when it
44:09
Speaker 3: comes to fumbles and turnovers. So maybe they are still
44:15
Speaker 3: due for some bounces here. But that is a major
44:18
Speaker 3: major concern here. Is Ken the offensive line hold up
44:23
Speaker 3: Because one of the Drake May's gifts and his biggest
44:27
Speaker 3: strengths is his downfield passing. Throws a beautiful deep ball
44:32
Speaker 3: and he's going to get a lot of man coverage
44:35
Speaker 3: this week, and Ken the offensive line give May enough
44:40
Speaker 3: time and can he feel that pressure and avoid losing
44:43
Speaker 3: the ball? And a big part of that it's going
44:45
Speaker 3: to be Will Campbell because you don't want to use
44:50
Speaker 3: you also just don't want to use your tight ends
44:52
Speaker 3: to be blocking the entire game, and because that's one
44:55
Speaker 3: of the ways you want to attack this Denver defense
44:58
Speaker 3: over the middle of the field with like Henry And
45:01
Speaker 3: so we'll see it. And this is a that's a
45:03
Speaker 3: great matchup because Denver's defense number one and explosive pass
45:07
Speaker 3: rate allowed New England one of the best passing explosive
45:11
Speaker 3: passing offenses in the league. And the difference might just
45:13
Speaker 3: be how quick can Denver get pressure on me?
45:18
Speaker 1: Can may handle the pressure? We feel pressure to hand
45:22
Speaker 1: out a winning parlay. Let's get to it.
45:24
Speaker 2: Two Kings in a Queen should feel pressure.
45:26
Speaker 1: Crafits we all do. It's been a couple of weeks
45:30
Speaker 1: for us.
45:30
Speaker 2: It has been a couple of weeks as a collective.
45:33
Speaker 1: Two Kings and a Queen presented by Draft Kings. Let's
45:36
Speaker 1: get to it. Kendrick kick us off with a couple
45:45
Speaker 1: of nominations with the two games we have in front
45:47
Speaker 1: of us.
45:48
Speaker 2: So this is tough because stucky and I are very
45:51
Speaker 2: in lockstep here. I had the Rams money line plus
45:54
Speaker 2: one thirty and then Denver to cover the four.
45:57
Speaker 1: And a half.
45:57
Speaker 2: I don't know how we want to attack this because
46:00
Speaker 2: of the picks that you guys have, So I am
46:04
Speaker 2: open to interpretation. But me and stuff you're holding hands
46:08
Speaker 2: this week, and then there's just gravits.
46:10
Speaker 1: I you know, I'm going to nominate the Seahawks money line.
46:14
Speaker 1: I could even get behind. I mean, we kind of
46:18
Speaker 1: need a win, so this would be dangerous. I could
46:20
Speaker 1: get behind of Rams spread and Seahawks money line within
46:24
Speaker 1: the same parlay. I think the game is going to
46:26
Speaker 1: be really close, so there's a chance that we could
46:28
Speaker 1: thread that needle. Obviously I can't. I'm not relax, guys.
46:34
Speaker 1: You can yell at me in a minute, okay. I'm
46:35
Speaker 1: not suggesting that. I'm saying I would have a conversation
46:39
Speaker 1: about it. I know. Obviously I can't vote for the
46:42
Speaker 1: Rams money line, so if I have to be, I
46:45
Speaker 1: have not bet the Patriots or the Broncos. I'm on
46:48
Speaker 1: the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. I bet that
46:50
Speaker 1: right when bow Nicks went down. There's a part of
46:53
Speaker 1: me there, Yes, I'm right now I'm gonna feel this.
46:56
Speaker 1: I'm very excited. I'm I'm gonna feel this out live.
47:00
Speaker 1: But if we got to throw it in the parlay,
47:02
Speaker 1: that's fine. I begrudge. I begrudgingly vote the Broncos plus
47:07
Speaker 1: the points. But I don't love that. I think I
47:11
Speaker 1: think a lot of people are underrating bo Nicks oddly enough,
47:14
Speaker 1: who I was eager to fade a week ago, and
47:17
Speaker 1: now it seems like all the people I respect the
47:19
Speaker 1: most cannot wait to back Jared Stidham in this situation.
47:22
Speaker 1: And I just feel like you all are walking into it.
47:26
Speaker 3: But anyway, Jar Stidham, if the line was three three
47:31
Speaker 3: and a half, I wouldn't that's all. Uh, I'm gonna
47:34
Speaker 3: go Denver as well. So we'll start off with Denver
47:39
Speaker 3: plus the points. Anything better than four I think is good.
47:45
Speaker 3: I'll nominate. I'll change mine up. We'll go because we
47:50
Speaker 3: already have Denver. I was gonna go. I was going
47:51
Speaker 3: to suggest Denver first quarter. I'll my first suggestion will
47:59
Speaker 3: be rams By will buy it to three. Well, it's partlay,
48:02
Speaker 3: we can buy it to three and a half. And
48:08
Speaker 3: I already talked about that game. I just think this
48:09
Speaker 3: is more of a coint that it just comes down
48:11
Speaker 3: to the coaching adjustments. I've better quarterback, and I don't
48:15
Speaker 3: like I think there's just an overreaction to what's happened
48:18
Speaker 3: over the past three weeks. That's the name of the game.
48:22
Speaker 3: You look, Historically, teams off thirty five plus point wins,
48:26
Speaker 3: it's almost like an auto fad for me the next week.
48:29
Speaker 3: Teams are never as good as they appear, and historically,
48:31
Speaker 3: if you do that just blindly, you've hit at over
48:35
Speaker 3: sixty two percent. We've only seen one team in the
48:37
Speaker 3: playoffs over the past twenty years, by the way, win
48:39
Speaker 3: by thirty five or more, and it was the Patriots
48:41
Speaker 3: twenty twelve, I think, beat the Broncos by thirty five.
48:45
Speaker 3: And then the next week at home against the Ravens,
48:49
Speaker 3: laying seven, should have lost, but Lee Evans dropped the
48:51
Speaker 3: pass and then Billy kind of missed a twenty seven
48:54
Speaker 3: yard field.
48:55
Speaker 2: Don't soundry.
48:57
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say to you what you would say to
48:59
Speaker 1: me in this situation, Stucky, you should never do anything blindly.
49:02
Speaker 1: You could do the exact same thing in the other direction,
49:05
Speaker 1: betting on the Seattle Seahawks to win this football game,
49:08
Speaker 1: and Evan lays it out wonderfully in the primer. This week,
49:12
Speaker 1: Rams off of an overtime game. Teams historically lose in
49:16
Speaker 1: those situations. Rest disadvantage. Seattle playing on Saturday, the Rams
49:21
Speaker 1: playing on Sunday. Teams in that spot won an eight
49:25
Speaker 1: straight up. The Rams are playing their third consecutive road game,
49:28
Speaker 1: also a losing spot straight up historically. So if we're
49:32
Speaker 1: going blind trends, Settle and Seattle at home in the
49:37
Speaker 1: playoffs has been money over the last decade.
49:41
Speaker 3: I mean, this isn't a blind trend. That's just basically
49:43
Speaker 3: how I handicap. That's my overarching bloss young handicap in
49:47
Speaker 3: the NFL buying low selling high teams are never as
49:50
Speaker 3: good as they look, or the previous week never as
49:53
Speaker 3: bad as they look, And that thirty five plus point
49:57
Speaker 3: status is a way to contextualize at that. It just
50:02
Speaker 3: goes back to me saying, I think we're overreacting to
50:05
Speaker 3: what we've seen over the past three weeks. Uh after
50:07
Speaker 3: six after sixteen weeks when these teams played in Seattle,
50:10
Speaker 3: everyone said Rams are clearly the best team in the NFL.
50:12
Speaker 3: They're going to win the super Bowl. And I think
50:15
Speaker 3: we've gone too far since that's all.
50:18
Speaker 1: I mean. I can't argue with you too much about this.
50:20
Speaker 1: I'm not betting Seattle minus the points. I am paying
50:23
Speaker 1: up to take them on the money line because I mean,
50:27
Speaker 1: these two games that we've seen with these two teams
50:29
Speaker 1: have shown us the margin is razor thin between these
50:32
Speaker 1: two teams. I'm not trying to get hooked on a
50:35
Speaker 1: Seattle wins by two. I think Seattle is the better
50:38
Speaker 1: football team. I think their home field advantage is significant,
50:43
Speaker 1: and the Rams being on the road three weeks in
50:45
Speaker 1: a row. I question Stafford's health. I feel like people
50:49
Speaker 1: have just neglected that, and in the Rams defense has
50:53
Speaker 1: not looked as good as it did in the middle
50:55
Speaker 1: of the season. So I think Seattle, I just don't want.
50:59
Speaker 3: To defense looked very very good last week, I have
51:03
Speaker 3: to say. I mean, their their run defense was very good.
51:05
Speaker 3: I was impressed by their run day. I think the
51:09
Speaker 3: Rams are still the better overall team, but I do
51:12
Speaker 3: make the Seahawks a small, slight favor. You have to
51:15
Speaker 3: take into account the situation, home field, etcetera, etcetera. But
51:20
Speaker 3: super close. I mean they were separated in the regular
51:21
Speaker 3: season by one yard at one point, but I'll say
51:26
Speaker 3: so Rams will buy it to three and a half,
51:29
Speaker 3: and then my other one will be we'll go Kaishan
51:33
Speaker 3: Boudi under two and a half receptions. I know he's
51:38
Speaker 3: cleared this in both playoff games, but his biggest games
51:43
Speaker 3: all season have come against zone heavy defenses. I think
51:47
Speaker 3: he's going to get a huge dose of certain here
51:50
Speaker 3: man heavy Broncos defense the way, and when they Patriots
51:55
Speaker 3: play man May targets Henry and digs in the slot,
52:00
Speaker 3: I think that's where they're going to target here. The
52:02
Speaker 3: pressure from Denver I think can get to May. And
52:05
Speaker 3: there's also just a chance that the Patriots blow out
52:10
Speaker 3: the Broncos, or that this is very low scoring and
52:14
Speaker 3: it's like becomes a field position battle and there's just
52:17
Speaker 3: not as many opportunities for Booty. So yeah, I'm gonna
52:22
Speaker 3: go He's not a target share monster. He's more like
52:25
Speaker 3: we'll take a couple of deep shots to him and
52:27
Speaker 3: he might get the best corner in the NFL. So
52:30
Speaker 3: under two and a half at plus money, I like.
52:35
Speaker 3: I think during the regular season, he.
52:40
Speaker 1: Let me see he one catch for fifty yards sounds
52:42
Speaker 1: like his stat line in this game.
52:44
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll say two for fifty eight is what he
52:49
Speaker 3: finishes at. But if you're curious, during the regular season,
52:53
Speaker 3: he went under two and a half and nine of
52:57
Speaker 3: fourteen games. And remember they had one of the easiest
53:00
Speaker 3: schedules in NFL history of opposing defenses. So and you're
53:06
Speaker 3: gonna see a lot of man here. I think Pat's
53:09
Speaker 3: gonna be heavy digs, tight end game and uh the
53:13
Speaker 3: Broncos are number one and explosive fast right allowed and
53:16
Speaker 3: that's where Booty does most of his damage. So those
53:19
Speaker 3: are my two. Well by the by the Rams to
53:21
Speaker 3: three and a half or Booty under two and a
53:25
Speaker 3: half receptions.
53:28
Speaker 1: Mm I am I'm gonna lean into that, Booty. GI
53:34
Speaker 1: me kayseean Booty.
53:35
Speaker 2: I'm taking the rams.
53:36
Speaker 1: So Evan, it's your time to shine.
53:40
Speaker 2: Uh.
53:40
Speaker 3: I guess I'd go with the Rams.
53:42
Speaker 4: I'd be kind of scared on like a two to
53:44
Speaker 4: three cap kind of what you saw last game, Like
53:46
Speaker 4: he doesn't look at Booty at all, and then one
53:48
Speaker 4: drive he hits him two or three times. It just
53:50
Speaker 4: becomes unlucky. I think three is probably his ceiling, which
53:54
Speaker 4: makes it a good bet, But I don't know. I'm
53:56
Speaker 4: a little jaded based off what we just saw.
53:59
Speaker 1: All right, Rams, three and a half? Are we buying
54:03
Speaker 1: the Broncos? Up to five? By the way, now collective here, Okay.
54:08
Speaker 4: You're above four, you're fine, four and a half.
54:10
Speaker 1: Two for the Broncos, three and a half for the Rams.
54:14
Speaker 1: I have the Seattle money line. Nobody's voting for that,
54:16
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna bother.
54:18
Speaker 3: Pees and.
54:20
Speaker 1: Kenneth Walker over eighty five and a half yards rushing.
54:24
Speaker 1: His average on the season is twenty yards short of this,
54:26
Speaker 1: but obviously this number is what it is because he's
54:29
Speaker 1: the lone wolf now in the backfield, and I highly
54:31
Speaker 1: doubt they're about to turn to VLAs Jones in the
54:34
Speaker 1: Charbonnay role. It's just gonna be give the ball to
54:37
Speaker 1: Kenneth Walker twenty five times. I know you said, hey,
54:40
Speaker 1: the Rams defense looked good last week, right, but since
54:44
Speaker 1: Week fourteen they have a lot one hundred and thirty
54:46
Speaker 1: yards per game on the ground. All of that workload
54:50
Speaker 1: is gonna land on Kenneth Walker's shoulders. We have an
54:53
Speaker 1: injured quarterback in Sam Darnold. They have to feed Kenneth
54:57
Speaker 1: Walker in this game. I think Seattle's gonna win, and
55:00
Speaker 1: to me, one of their only chances at victory is
55:02
Speaker 1: Kenneth Walker having a big game on the ground and
55:04
Speaker 1: then leaning on him in order to get the dubs.
55:07
Speaker 1: So eighty five and a half yards. So, by the way,
55:10
Speaker 1: he has already cleared this against the Rams in a victory,
55:13
Speaker 1: so we have seen what that looks like.
55:15
Speaker 3: Olani's back though, so that I think he'll be the backup.
55:21
Speaker 3: So but yeah, I mean that one of the reasons,
55:24
Speaker 3: and I think the Rams will take the same approach
55:27
Speaker 3: that the Seahawks offense has become way less explosive, the
55:29
Speaker 3: teams are using lighter boxes, Donold has become a shell
55:33
Speaker 3: of what he was early in the season, and the
55:35
Speaker 3: run game has become significantly more successful as I mentioned.
55:40
Speaker 3: So they were twenty seven of the EPA per play
55:42
Speaker 3: running the ball over the first ten weeks. Since then
55:45
Speaker 3: they're eleventh. So yeah, by far, I would roll with Walker,
55:51
Speaker 3: who should get heavy workload here, and I do think
55:56
Speaker 3: that that's they want to play a complimentary game here,
55:59
Speaker 3: limit Arnold's attempts as much as they can, and the
56:04
Speaker 3: Rams are gonna want to take away those explosives. So
56:06
Speaker 3: I do think Walker will have a good day. So
56:08
Speaker 3: that of the two I'm definitely going Walker.
56:11
Speaker 2: I have to you because I'm on the Rams money line, so.
56:15
Speaker 1: Well, don't sound too excited about it.
56:18
Speaker 3: All right, there you go, we have we have six
56:22
Speaker 3: to one at DraftKings.
56:24
Speaker 1: There you go, Yes, plus five ninety three over at
56:26
Speaker 1: Draft Kings where the Crown is yours, Broncos plus four
56:30
Speaker 1: and a half Rams, plus three and a half Kenneth
56:32
Speaker 1: Walker over eighty five and a half yards rushing. That's
56:37
Speaker 1: gonna do it for today's episode special thanks to our
56:39
Speaker 1: producers Gifford Gold and David Payne, statsound Evan Abrams. The
56:43
Speaker 1: Favorites will return on Sunday night, right after the Late Game,
56:48
Speaker 1: and we'll break it all down right here on the
56:50
Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page. Thanks for hanging out. To see
56:52
Speaker 1: you next time here on the Favorites Podcast, presented by
56:55
Speaker 1: Draft Kings. The Crown yours.
57:06
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
57:11
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
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Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler