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Market Gut Check: Inflation Data and the AI Reality · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning , market watchers !
• 0:02
  I am your host , Sunny Sideup , and you are listening to Spy Trader .
• 0:06
  It is currently 5 am on Sunday , February 8th , 2026 , in the Pacific time zone .
• 0:13
  We are getting an early start because we are entering what I like to call the gut check week for the U.S.
• 0:18
  financial markets .
• 0:20
  We are nearing the end of the fourthquarter earnings season , and we have some massive inflation data dropping midweek that could really shake things up .
• 0:29
  Let’s dive into what you need to know to stay ahead of the curve .
• 0:32
  The big story for the week of February 9th through the 13th is the sticky inflation narrative .
• 0:39
  Everyone is looking at the Consumer Price Index , or CPI report , which usually comes out around the middle of the month .
• 0:48
  Right now , the Federal Reserve is trying to land this economic plane softly , but if that CPI data shows inflation staying stuck above two point five percent , those hopes for interest rate cuts in early 2026 might just evaporate .
• 1:03
  If you want to see how the market is reacting to this in realtime , keep your eyes on the iShares 20 plus Year Treasury Bond ETF , ticker symbol TLT .
• 1:14
  If inflation is higher than we want , TLT is going to face some selling pressure as yields spike .
• 1:21
  For a safer place to park your cash during that volatility , you might look at the iShares Core U.S.
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  Aggregate Bond ETF , or AGG , which is a bit more stable .
• 1:32
  Moving over to sectors , the theme in technology is AI reality .
• 1:36
  The market is tired of hearing about what AI might do ; it wants to see what it is doing right now .
• 1:43
  Recently , we have seen a huge shift toward autonomous AI agents from the big software players .
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  Microsoft and NVIDIA remain the leaders here .
• 1:53
  If we see a dip this week , I would look at the Invesco QQQ Trust .
• 1:58
  If the Nasdaq100 can hold its fiftyday moving average , this tech rally probably has plenty of room to run .
• 2:06
  For a more concentrated bet on this , the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund , or XLK , is expected to outperform the broader SPY if software guidance stays strong .
• 2:18
  We are also seeing a massive resurgence in healthcare .
• 2:22
  Between weightloss drugs and a wave of biotech mergers , companies like Eli Lilly and UnitedHealth Group are making moves .
• 2:31
  If the inflation data makes the rest of the market nervous , investors usually rotate into the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLV , because it is more defensive and less sensitive to the immediate economic cycle .
• 2:45
  We also have some key earnings to watch that act as a pulse check for the American consumer .
• 2:51
  Watch for reports from Airbnb and DoorDash .
• 2:55
  If people are still traveling and ordering in despite last year's price hikes , it tells us the consumer is resilient , which would be great for the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , or VTI .
• 3:07
  Also , keep a close watch on Applied Materials .
• 3:10
  Since they supply the chipmakers , their guidance is a huge indicator for the whole semiconductor space and could be a bullish catalyst for the QQQ .
• 3:20
  Now , let’s talk strategy .
• 3:23
  For your core positioning , I recommend a balanced approach using the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF , ticker VOO , or the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF , IVV .
• 3:35
  Even with midweek volatility , the broad market momentum is still looking positive .
• 3:40
  For a tactical growth play , I like the Invesco QQQ Trust .
• 3:45
  We are seeing midcap tech start to join the AI party , and the QQQ gives you a great balance of stability and upside .
• 3:53
  If you want a defensive hedge , look at the Vanguard Real Estate ETF , VNQ .
• 3:59
  Real estate is very sensitive to interest rates , and if that CPI report comes in cooler than expected , VNQ could see a quick two to three percent rally .
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  Finally , keep a very close eye on NVIDIA .
• 4:14
  It has been the primary provider of liquidity for the market lately .
• 4:18
  If NVIDIA breaks below its recent support level , it might be time to rotate some capital into value or banks using the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLF .
• 4:29
  Overall , I am cautiously bullish for the week , though I expect some heavy price swings on Tuesday and Wednesday .
• 4:36
  If the data is close to what the experts expect , we could finish the week on a high note led by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF .
• 4:45
  That is all for this morning’s update .
• 4:48
  I am Sunny Sideup , and this has been Spy Trader .
• 4:51
  Remember to check your risk tolerance and talk to a pro before making big moves .
• 4:56
  I will see you back here in a few hours !