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16 Bowl Game Picks Dec 24-30 | Full Predictions & Analysis · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: On today's show, it's Bowl Previews and Picks, Part three.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: We're going over the bowls from December twenty fourth through
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: December thirtieth, and we got sixteen of them to discuss. Well,
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: come in. It's Winning Cures Everything, a college football podcast.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: I'm your host, Gary Seekers at Gary WCEE on all
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  Speaker 1: you can do that Gary at Winning Cures Everything dot com.
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  Speaker 1: some audio only stuff going on over there throughout the
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  Speaker 1: bowl season, throughout the off season as well, So gonna
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  Speaker 1: be a lot of things that I'm you know, we're
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  Speaker 1: eight years into this. I think it is started in
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  Speaker 1: twenty well started in twenty sixteen. The YouTube channel started
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  Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen, so yeah, we've been at this quite
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: a while, pretty long time. But subscribe to the pod
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• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Let's not waste time. We're gonna kind of go through
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: these pretty quick because we got sixteen bowl games to
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: discuss tonight again December twenty fourth through December thirtieth. I
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: am recording this on Monday, December the fifteenth, because my
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: schedule is about to get crazy and I want to
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: be able to hit all of these games. So let's
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: not waste time. Let's get to it. Wednesday, December twenty fourth,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: we have got the Hawaii Bowl with Cal against Hawaii.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: So yes, a home game for the Warriors here and
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: in the return of Nick Rolovich, former Hawaii coach. Has
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: been out of college football for a little while, but
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: he was a senior offensive analyst for the cow Bears
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: this year. Took over as the head coach when they
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: fired Justin Wilcox just a couple of weeks ago. Gotta
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: win over SMU in the finale. This one's seven pm
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Central time, God's time zone on ESPN. That's right on
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Christmas Eve right now. Cal favored by one and a
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: half to two and a half depending on the book
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: total of fifty four and a half on this one.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: And let's go ahead and go through some of the
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: numbers which you can see on the screen. My stats
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: projected spread if everybody's healthy, all that kind of stuff,
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: would have Hawaii by three and a half points. The
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: last four weeks would actually have Cal favored by maybe
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: about six and a half. Power rating actually has Hawaii
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: favored by almost two points. Now. Cal does have some
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: potential opt outs. Hezekiah Massis, that is, the cornerback and
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: the linebacker, Kade you Uluave. I hope we get that right.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Jared kiahwe I froze up there, didn't I have a
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: jks Jared kiahwe sung pull it, Telly. I hope we
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: got that right now. I've tried to say that name
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: right all year. Either way, looks like he's probably gonna play.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: He's coming back for new head coach Tosh Lapoi. I
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: think he's gonna play in this game, is what it is.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Kyle does have some injuries. The right guard, Uh, let's
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: see Vatikani, the tight end Mini, the wide receiver's King
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: and Hamper. Safety Crosby has been out for a while.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: The offense or the outside linebacker excuse me, McCullough, Uh,
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: defensive back Cam Sidney. Those guys who knows who is
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: gonna play out of that group. As I brought up,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: Justin Wilcox was fired at the end of the year. Okay, Uh,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Hawaii transfer portal. Hawaii's got some guys that are gonna
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: be out. The wide receiver Jackson Harris, He's got nine
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: hundred and sixty three yards receiving in twelve touchdowns. Uh,
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: he is in the transfer portal. Not sure if that
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: means he's not gonna play, but we shall see. Hawaii
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: does have injuries as well. Uh, the linebacker Otis, cornerback Edwards,
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: the second wide receiver Kinnicle, Uh knockle, however you say it, so,
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: it doesn't look like it's going to be crazy. If
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: anybody's got the worst of it, it looks like it's
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: probably gonna be Cal dealing with some of these injuries
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: and whatnot. I'm kind of surprised that Cal is favored
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: here because Hawaii is outrageous at home. They're like eleven
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: and one against the spread at home on the island.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Hawaii as far as bowl games go one to zero
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: in bowl games since twenty twenty against the spread, and
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Cal is zero to two against the spread in bowl
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: games since twenty twenty, they are minus twelve point three.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Now you're not dealing with Justin Wilcox. You got Nick Rolovich,
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: probably a different team. Rollo was gonna stay on staff
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: with tash Lapoy. We'll see exactly what that means. I
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: think he's gonna be the quarterbacks coach, so he's gonna
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: stay with JKS. Let's start with Hawaii on offense. This
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: is the number seventy PPA margin team in the country
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: that's predicted points at margin. CAL is number ninety two,
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: so Cayle's offense number one oh four. We know that
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: the quarterback is really good, but overall efficiency they have
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: not been great by any stretch of the imagination. Hawaii
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: is number thirty in passing success rate. They are number
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: four in pass rate. They throw the ball over sixty
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  Speaker 1: one percent of the time. Cal's defense is number twenty
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: seven against the pass, so they're pretty good there. Hawaii
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: not very good at running it, KYL not very good
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: at stopping it. So you've got strength on strength here
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: when Hawaii's got the football. On the other side, CAL
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: is not good at running the football. Hawaii is good
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: at defending it. KL is not great throwing it. There
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: are number forty in passing success rate, but their number
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: seventy six in yards per attempt, number seventy five in QBR,
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  Speaker 1: and number eighty five in predicted points added per pass.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Hawaii is number sixty in PPA allowed per pass, number
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  Speaker 1: fifty three in QBR allowed, number forty six in passing
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: success rate allowed. So Hawaii actually a little bit better
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: against the pass then CAL is at actually passing the
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: ball as far as running it. Like I said, Cal
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: number one thirty four in PPA per rush, number one
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: thirty six in yards per rush. They are just not good,
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  Speaker 1: not efficient running the football. Hawaii on offense number seventy
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: six in points per scoring opportunity. Cal's defense is number
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: sixty two, but there is a huge difference in scoring
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: opportunities per game. That's when the opponent gets a first
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: down inside the opponent's forty yard line. Hawaii number seventy
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: one in scoring opportunities per game, so six drives per
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  Speaker 1: game that they get inside the forty. Col's defense is
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: number one twenty six, so they allow quite a few.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Number they're five point five to eight is what they allow.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: We'll see what that ends up looking like. Cal is
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  Speaker 1: number sixty eight in points per scoring opportunity, number one
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: oh one in scoring opportunities per game. The Hawaii defense
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: number forty seven in scoring opportunities allowed, number thirty nine
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: in points per scoring opportunity. So the Hawaii defense actually
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: pretty good. You look at Raw five factors rank, Hawaii
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  Speaker 1: is number sixty five. Cal is number eighty nine. There
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: is a huge talent difference here Cal number fifty five,
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  Speaker 1: Hawaiian number one twenty nine. But Hawaii has played above
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: their head basically all season. Look at their offensive position
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: groups are not good at least from a talent standpoint,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: and yet they have played outstanding all year, especially on
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: the island. So I look at this, and you know
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: Cal is favored by two and a half. Yeah, one
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: and a half to two and a half. I've got
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Hawaii favored in two of my metrics. I'm gonna go
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: with that. So give me the Rainbow Warriors plus two
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: and a half at home the game above Sports Bowl
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: the day after Christmas. Of course, Central Michigan and Northwestern
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: It's Friday, December twenty sixth noon Central time on ESPN
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  Speaker 1: and inter interesting spot here, Central Michigan is a ten
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: and a half point dog. This thing was out at
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  Speaker 1: twelve and a half, so it has come down quite
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: a bit. Totally is forty three and a half on
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  Speaker 1: this It's in Detroit, Michigan, So Central Michigan not as
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  Speaker 1: far of a drive as Northwestern, but regardless, it is
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  Speaker 1: what it is ppa margin. Central Michigan number fifty three.
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  Speaker 1: Their defense is really good. Northwestern number eighty nine. But
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  Speaker 1: the strength of scheduled difference between these two is pretty massive.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: Central Michigan number one oh one, Northwestern number thirty one.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Looking at portal and opt outs and injuries and all that,
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: Central Michigan, the defensive end Heldman is a potential opt
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: out transfer portal. The defensive lineman Cade Costas only played
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: one hundred and three snaps. He is in the portal
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: he could still play, we'll see, And as far as
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: injuries go for Central Michigan. The quarterback Angel Flores, he
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: was a backup. He has not played since Week nine,
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: so not a ton there for Northwestern potential opt outs.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: The left tackle Tiernan defensive end Sokka. Both of those
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: guys are potential opt outs as far as Northwestern injuries.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: The running back Caleb Komalafe. He missed the finale the
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: running back Joseph Hyman left the finale with an injury.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: The wide receiver Drew Wagner he last played in Week twelve,
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: cornerback Davis, defensive end Aiden Hubbard, and the defensive end Haggarty.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: All of those guys are hurt, but David Brown said
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: he's confident in Komalafe and Hyman being back. Those are
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: the two running backs. He's unsure about the status of Hubbard.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: We'll see what that means. Who knows, who knows. But overall,
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: talent still a huge factor here because Northwestern is number sixty,
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Central Michigan number one twenty seven. Looking at pace of play,
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Northwestern is number one thirty one, Central Michigan number one
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: thirty four. The Central Michigan defense is probably the best
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: unit on the field here. They're number thirty four and
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: ppa allowed per drive, number fifty one in defensive success allowed,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Northwestern number fifty eight in offensive success allowed are not allowed,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: excuse me, just an offensive success They're number one eighteen
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: in defensive success allowed. Slow plotting game, Central Michigan is
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: I mean they run the ball over sixty five percent
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: to almost sixty six percent of the time. They're pretty
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: good throwing it number sixteen in PPA per pass. They're
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: number one eleven in passing success rate, but that's because
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: they're number thirty one in passing explosiveness. Northwestern is number
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: eighty nine in passing explosiveness allowed, and Northwestern not good
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: at defending the run number one twenty three and rushing
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: success allowed. Well, Central Michigan runs it a lot. I
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: mean their head coach is the former Army offensive line
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: coach Matt Drinkle. David Brown has a there's something about
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: the culture of this bunch. You look at the bowl
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: spread records, and Northwestern is two and oh since twenty
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: twenty plus thirteen points. They always play harder in bowl
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: games for whatever reason. But Central Michigan one and oh
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: against the spread in bowl games plus eight and a half.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: If I'm not mistaken. The only bowl that they've been
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: in since twenty twenty is I want to say the
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Sun Bowl where they beat Washington State. Might be wrong
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: about that. We'll see. We'll see either way. Northwestern better
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: as far as penalties per game, Central Michigan way better.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: As far as turnover margin, special team's efficiency, Northwestern massive
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: edge number fifteen to number eighty seven. As far as
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: finishing drives. Northwestern on offense number one nineteen in points
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity, Central Michigan's defense number twenty one. On
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: the other side, you've got at Central Michigan number seventy
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: eight in points per scoring opportunity in Northwestern at number
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: forty six. This is I was a little shocked at
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: this number. Like I said, Northwestern favorite by ten and
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: a half. It was at twelve and a half this
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: time last week. My power rating has Northwestern by eight.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: My projected stat spread has Northwestern by seven point sixty
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: nine nice, and the last four weeks actually has Northwestern
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: by just a point and a half. So you look
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: at all those numbers, all of them are under that
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: ten and a half. I wish this thing was still eleven.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: I would like that key number there. But even at
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: ten and a half, I still feel like Central Michigan
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: is going to muck this thing up. It'll come down
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: to the wire. I think even if Northwestern does win,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: I imagine it will be by less than ten and a
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: half points, maybe at thirty one to twenty one AD
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: that's maybe too many points because we've got a total
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: here of forty three and a half. That's down from
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: forty four and a half, so you're maybe looking at
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: twenty four to fourteen, twenty seven to seventeen kind of
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: thing somewhere around there. Yeah, I feel good about this.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: I will take Central Michigan plus the ten and a
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: half the Rate Bowl on Friday, December twenty sixth. This
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: one is at three thirty pm Central Time, God's time zone,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: of course, on ESPN. New Mexico taking on Minnesota. Of course,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: new coach Jason Eck led New Mexico to a nine
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: win season. Minnesota seven and five again. PJ. Fleck just
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: continues to do the thing. Three and one against the
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: spread in bowl game since twenty twenty, they are plus three.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: New Mexico has not made a bowl since twenty twenty.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: Broncos Big Bad Boys got close last year, but now
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: Jason Eck, I mean nine and three straight up seven
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: and five against the spread. Minnesota has not been covering
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: very much this year, but they also have not been
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: very good this year at all. Ninety seven in PBA margin.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: New Mexico is fifty second in PBA margin. They are
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: pretty good on defense, pretty good on offense. Minnesota worse
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: on offense than they are on defense, but even the
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: defense has not been great by any stretch. But the
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule difference between these two is just massive.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: New Mexico eighty ninth in strength to schedule, Minnesota is
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: thirty sixth. So let's see Guaranteed Rate Bowl. Where is
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: that thing? Phoenix, Arizona. I'm not gonna say it's home
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: field for New Mexico, but I think they're a little
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: more comfortable in that weather than Minnesota would be. Of course,
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: it is the wintertime, so may not make a difference
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: at all. Okay, let's dive into this. My projected stat
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: spread has Minnesota by three point one. Three power rating
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: has Minnesota by three point four. Last four weeks has
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: Minnesota by six, and Minnesota right now is favored by
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: two and a half with a total of forty six
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: and a half to forty seven and a half. So
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: that total is coming down just a little bit. And
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: if you look at these two teams, it kind of
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: makes sense. Minnesota not efficient on offense at all. They
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: are number ninety eight in points per game. New Mexico
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: is number sixty eight in offensive points per game, but
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: they are number one oh seven in pace of play.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: Minnesota number one twenty two in pace of play as well.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: Let's start with Minnesota on offense. They throw it a lot,
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: almost fifty four percent of the time, but they're not
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: good at it. They're number one sixteen in yards per
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: attempt number eighty nine and PPA per pass number eighty eight,
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: in QBR number ninety four and passing success rate. New
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: Mexico is seventy eighty ninety eight and sixty second in those,
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: so a little bit better, but not much. There's also
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: a massive talent discrepancy here. We'll talk about that just
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: a minute. New Mexico is really good against the run.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: I don't know if Darius Taylor is going to play
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: in this. We'll talk about some of the injuries and
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: potential opt outs, all that kind of stuff here in
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: just a minute, but we'll see. We'll see what this
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: Minnesota offense looks like. New Mexico I would imagine gonna
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: be pretty fired up for this because they have not
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: made a Bowl in a very long time. Special team
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: defficiency in New Mexico's number sixteen. Minnesota is outside the
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: top one twenty overall talent, Minnesota is top fifty. New
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: Mexico is outside the top one fifteen. So let's look
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: at the injuries here. New Mexico got quite the list.
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: The ones that it looks like are going to play.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: The guard Richard Pierce, safety Drew Speech, defensive tackle Xavier Slayton.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: Those guys all missed the last two weeks. The wide
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: receiver Michael Buckley, and the cornerback Abraham Williams. Both of
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: those were hurt way back, I believe in October. But
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: the first three they're probably gonna have a decent shot
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: to suit up here New Mexico. Potential opt outs. Defensive
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: end Keyshawn James Newby, we'll see he might be opting
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: out to transfer. We'll see what that means. Minnesota in
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: the transfer portal. You've got the running back too. E G. Boy,
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: I did not say that right, But Minnesota fans, you
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: jump in here and tell me exactly how you're supposed
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: to say that. He had four hundred ninety five yards
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: rushing thus far this year. As far as potential opt outs,
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: Darius Taylor has been injured off and on for years
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: at this point, so he could opt out. Defensive tackle,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: Eastern defensive end Anthony Smith. Both of those guys could
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: opt out. As far as injuries. The three guys that
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: missed the finale were the cornerback Brian, right guard Marshall,
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: and the left sorry not the left, the linebacker Matt Kingsbury.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: All of those guys missed the final. Maybe they just
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: decided to play youth at the end of the season.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: Who knows. Very curious about what that's gonna mean. New
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: Mexico and offense runs some really weird stuff. You have
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: to be super prepared for it, and Minnesota has had
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: plenty of time to study film and figure out exactly
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: what it is that New Mexico runs. The question is
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: do they care? With PJ Fleck teams, they always care.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is six and oh straight up in bowl games
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: under PJ. Fleck. They take bowl games seriously. Like I said,
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: three and one against the spread in the four bowls
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: since twenty twenty. So you look at the five factors rank,
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: New Mexico certainly favors higher their number forty nine, Minnesota
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: number seventy four. But when you look at five factors
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: plus talent, New Mexico eighty eight and Minnesota number forty five.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: So there's a massive, massive difference here. I think both
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: teams are going to be motivated. I think both are
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: going to be fired up. I understand everybody wanting to
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: jump on the New Mexico bandwagon. New Mexico number one
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: twenty four in giveaways per game. Minnesota is number sixty
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: six and takeaways per game in Minnesota does not turn
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: the ball over there number four in giveaways per game
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: at Minnesota betteran penalties per game. The talent thing is
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: just a little too much for me. I think Minnesota
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: handles this. I think they get it done. New Mexico
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: they'll give it a fight, but this thing is at
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: two and a half. I'll take the favorite. Give me
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: Minnesota minus two and a half. The First Responder Bowl
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: in Dallas, Texas. This one is on Friday, December twenty
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: sixth FIU against UTSA seven pm Central Time on ESPN,
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: and good gracious UTSA favored by eight and a half
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: with a total of fifty nine and a half on
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: this one. Dallas is not too terribly far from from UTSA.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: But how fired up as the fan base going to
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: be for this Bowl game? We shall see, we shall see.
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: I FIU really surprising this far or this season seven
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: and five straight up UTSA six and six IU. This
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: is their first bowl game since twenty twenty. UTSA has
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: made five bowls since twenty twenty. They are three and
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: two against the spread plus two point nine. And when
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: you look at the projected stats numbers would have UTSA
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: favored by eight point six two. My last four weeks
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: would have UTSA only favored by four point four, and
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: my power rating has UTSA favored by six point eight. Now,
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: when you look at some of this, the potential opt outs.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: If I use stud cornerback Brian Blades the second, he
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: could opt out of this game. In the transfer portal,
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: you get another cornerback, mister Clark. That's a fun name.
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: He's played seven hundred and seventy six snaps. That's wild.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: IFIU injuries, the quarterback Joe Pazenski, he started a few
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: games before the original starter Keon Jenkins returned from an injury.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: We'll see what that means. As far as UTSA, the
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: defensive linement o two to two. He's in the portal.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: Don't know if he's gonna play or not. Potential opt outs.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: The linebacker Shad Banks Junior, he could opt out. And
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: then as far as injuries, the quarterback Meyer he missed
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: the finale. The outside linebacker Vikshaw missed the finale. Right
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: guard Daryl Jones got hurt in week thirteen, he did
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: not play in the finale. Tight end three Dan Dishman,
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: and the free safety jer Marius Lewis who got hurt
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: in week twelve, that munch. Who knows who's gonna end
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: up shooting up out of that. But those are names
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: to pay attention to. Notice that you didn't really see
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: a lot as far as offensive opt outs for UTSA,
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: and that is a good thing for them because they
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: like to sling it around a little bit. Number forty
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: three in pass rate. They are number thirty seven in QBR,
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: number thirty three in passing success well. FIU is pretty
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: good against the pass, number thirty nine in passing success allowed,
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: number fifty n PPA allowed per pass, but they're not
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: good against the run. UTSA is not great against the run.
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: But UTSA is number forty eight in rushing explosiveness. FIU
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: is number one, thirty four in rushing explosiveness allowed. That
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: ain't good. UTSA on offense number forty seven. In points
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity, FIU is number forty. So we're gonna
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: see who has the better the better bunch there when
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: it comes to allowing points in scoring in scoring position,
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: we'll call it. That's when you get a first down
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: inside of the opponent's forty yard line, that is a
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity. Overall talent rank, FIU is number ninety six.
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: UTSA is number sixty eight. Special teams efficiency UTSA is
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: number forty seven. FIU is number ninety seven. On the
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: other side, when FIU has the ball, pretty good running it,
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: they're not great throwing it, number sixty eight and PPAPRI
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: pass number seventy nine in QBR. But UTSA and those
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: metrics is number ninety eight, number one thirteen. On defense,
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: they're not good at stopping the past. Luckily for them,
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: FIU is not great at throwing it. So you look
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: at FIU running the football. They are number fifty nine
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: in rush rate almost fifty two percent of the time,
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: but their number one ten and rushing success UTSA is
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: number twenty seven in rushing success allowed offensive line yards
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: stuff rate. FIU does not measure up here. We'll see
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: what that looks like. But yeah, number forty one in
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: PPA per rush though, and it's because they're pretty explosive. Well,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: Utsa's defense is number fifty two and rushing explosiveness allowed
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity IU is number thirty one. At
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: finishing drives, UTSA is number one twenty five. Now. UTSA
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: also is number twenty four in scoring opportunities allowed per game.
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: So they don't let you get down there very often,
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: but when you do, you're gonna score basically every time.
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: So we'll see what FIU does how they're able to
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: do this on a down to down basis. Basically, I
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: look at this and it was at nine and a
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: half and then it dropped down to eight and a half.
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: So there is some FIU love in the market here,
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: but you look at five factors and UTSA is just
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: an overall better team. They are more talented, and I
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: think that they're going to be fired up for this.
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: I know i FIU is going to be fired up,
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: but I think UTSA wants to end the season the
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: right way. Jeff Trailer is saying all the right things.
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: I think they're going to be fired up for this,
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: and they are just an overall better football team. So
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: this thing being at eight and a half, it's kind
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: of in no man's land. I'm gonna go with the favorite.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: Give me utsa eight and a half. Are you tired
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: of sore knees or joints slowing you down? Ghost Leaves
• 25:06
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• 25:10
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• 25:14
  Speaker 1: fifteen percent off over at ghost leaves dot com. And
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: if you haven't already, go ahead and like the video,
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel if you would so kindly, and
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: of course jump in the comments. Let me know what
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: you guys think about all these different Bowl games. Give
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: me some information that maybe I'm missing. I would love
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: to hear from all of you on this, So go
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: ahead and jump in there and make sure that you
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: are subscribed. The go Bowling Military Bowl in an Applis, Maryland.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: We got Pitt going up against the East Carolina and
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: this is a fun matchup. I'll go ahead and tell
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: you that this is a fun game. This one at
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: ten am Central time, of course God's time zone on
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: ESPN Saturday, December twenty seventh. There's a lot of Bowl
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: games that day, a lot of games, but a fun
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: way to start it off. Pitt favored by seven to
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: seven and a half with a total of fifty seven
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: and a half on this one. When the spread was
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: created or when the sheet was created, this thing was
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: Pitt minus six. ECU has had some coaching changes since then.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: The defensive coordinator, Josh Aldridge, he left to go to USF.
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: Offensive coordinator John David Baker. He's head at Ole Miss.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: He's going to be the offensive coordinator there. I'm not
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: sure exactly who is. I know that East Carolina has
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: Hauser that is going to enter the portal. He hasn't
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: yet because obviously the thing don't open until January second.
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: But I don't believe that he's gonna sit out this game.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: It doesn't look like it thus far. We'll see, we'll
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: see what that means. Looking at the numbers, I got
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: a lot of advantages for East Carolina here. I've got
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: PIT favored by point two to three points. As far
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: as projected stats spread, it's concerned. I've got a projected
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: total of only fifty one and a half. My power
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: rating has PIT by two and a half, but my
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: last four weeks has PIT by nine. So Pitt played
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: really well against Georgia Tech, against Miami and Notre Dame.
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: Two should be playoff teams, one of them is, one
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: of them isn't. But regardless, they just didn't look great.
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: And I am not expecting East Carolina to be able
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: to get after Mason Heinchel the way that Miami did,
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: or Notre Dame for that matter. Now, East Carolina's numbers
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: are going to look pretty good on defense, but even still,
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: East Carolina, for as good as their numbers were only
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: eight and four straight up, which is kind of goofy,
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: but still, Pitt is one and two against the spread
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: in their last three bowls minus one point seven East
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: Carolina two to zero plus fourteen and a half in
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: their bowl games since since twenty twenty. So let's talk
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: about it. When East Carolina is on offense, pretty good
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: throwing the ball. That is the weakness of this pit defense.
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: East Carolina thirty ninth in PBA pri pass pit defense
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: number sixty three, East Carolina number seventy four in Yorks
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: per attempt or sorry number thirty four in Yords per attempt,
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: Pitt's defense number fifty nine. Passing success rate East Carolina
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: is number fifteen, Pitt Is number thirty four. So Pitt
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: is pretty good at this stuff. I mean, they're pretty
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: good at defending the pass, but they're really good at
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: defending the run. Now East Carolina doess they do run
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: the ball over fifty three percent of the time, but
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: they are gonna They're gonna find a brick ball here. Basically,
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: let's let's talk about some of the potential opt outs injuries.
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: I like stuff Pitt, the running back Desmond Reid, the
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: linebackers Lewis and Biles, and the right tackle Ryan Bear
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: those are all potential opt outs for Pitt here. Along
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: with that, they do have some injuries. Of course, Desmond
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: Reid missed the final two games, the defensive tackle Fitzsimmons,
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: he last played in week ten, the right guard Ryan Corretta,
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: he didn't play in the last two games, and the
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: left guard Keith Govilla, he last played in week five,
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: so they've had a replacement for that East Carolina injuries.
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: The left guard Panda Ascu didn't play in the finale,
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: and the cornerback received reason he last played in week seven.
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: And again we don't know what's up with Howser. We'll see.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: I would imagine he plays, but you never know. A
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: big strength of schedule difference between these two East Carolina
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: Number one hundred, Pit number fifty. As far as finishing drives,
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: East Carolina number thirty eight in points per scoring opportunity,
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: Pitt is number one sixteen. East Carolina number fourteen in
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity per game. Pitt is number eight at scoring
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: opportunities allowed per game. So they're I'm gonna guess they're
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: not gonna let East Carolina down there a lot, but
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: we'll see. We'll see what that looks like. When Pitt
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: is on offense. They're not very good run in the
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: football and it looks like they're probably not gonna have
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: Reid here, so it's gonna be even more difficult because
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: East Carolina's defense is good against the run. Like that's
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: just putting it as mildly as possible. They are number
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: twelve in PBA allowed per rush, Pitt is number eighty
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: four yards per rush, ECU number thirty four in yards allowed.
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: Pitt is number one seventeen in yards per rush. On offense,
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: they are just it's easiest way to say this. East
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: Carolina is number ten and rushing success allowed. Pit is
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: number one hundred. Now on the other side, Pitt throws
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: the ball over fifty five percent of the time. It's
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: part of that k Bell offense is what it is.
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: They are number seventy one in passing success rate. East
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: Carolina's defense number thirty six. There are number forty three
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: in yards per attempt. East Carolina's number thirty eight. Yeah,
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: in Pitt number sixty seven in points per scoring opportunity,
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: East Carolina is number twenty three. So East Carolina, you know,
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: number twenty five in five factors rank, Pitt is number
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: fifty two. But when you toss in talent, because you're
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: looking at number fifty three against number seventy seven, all
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: of a sudden, that thing flips and Pitt is number
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: forty and East Carolina's number sixty losing the coordinators? How
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: much does that hurt? Head coach are still there. They've
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: got guys that know the system should be okay. I
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: just I wonder about the talent difference. I wonder about
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: the motivation here, and does Houser play. Kind of sounds
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: like I think he might, But the way that this
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: number is going, it kind of looks like he's not
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: going to. If he doesn't, that's gonna be very interesting
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: because East Carolina could easily win this football game, and
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: yet this thing has gotten to a touchdown or more
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: than that, and I think that has to have It's
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: got something to do with Hawser, I would imagine. So
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: we're gonna look at this thing as if Houser is
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: not playing. I would highly recommend that you wait until
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: bowl time to figure out who is actually gonna play
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: in this game, even if Hawser doesn't play. You know,
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: I think the number got too high. I think the
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: number got too high. Let's go East Carolina plus seven
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: and a half. Whether Hawser plays or not, I don't
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: think it necessarily matters. I do think that Pitt doesn't
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: always show up in bowl games. Nordoozi, you've seen him
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: in bowl games before. You know what this guy does.
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: What was it? It was one and two? Yeah, one
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: and two against the spread minus one point seven. East
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: Carolina shows up for him? Yeah, I think East Carolina
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: shows up here and they make it a game. So
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: I will I will take the seven and a half.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: Give me the Pirates. Saturday, December twenty seven to eleven
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: am Central Time on Where are We ABC? That's right,
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: the Bad Boy Mower's Pinstripe Bowl, this one in the
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: Bronx in New York, Penn State against Clemson, and I
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: would imagine Penn State will have a significantly bigger fan advantage,
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: But neither of these teams saw this as being their
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: bowl destination. I will I will certainly say that Clemson
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: favored by three and a half with a total of
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: forty eight and a half on this and it has
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: not moved in a week. And I don't blame anybody,
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: because how in the world could you possibly bet this
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: game when you have no idea Penn State opt outs.
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: You've already got the defensive tackle Durant, the safety Wheatley,
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: the left guard ion it ione A. I don't know
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: why I keep saying that wrong. The left guard is
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: opting out. How's that you do have potential opt outs?
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: The defensive end denied Dennis Sutton, the running back ka
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: Tron Allen, the running back Nicholas Singleton, cornerback AJ Harris,
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: wide receiver Trevor Pania, linebacker Amari Campbell, left tackle Drew Shelton,
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: right tackle Nolan Rucci. They have an interim head coach,
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: The captain of the team, Durant has already opted out
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: Drew Aller, of course out for the year. The linebacker
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: Tony Rojas is out for the year and then your
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: coaching changes. Right, You've got Matt Campbell coming in, but
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: you fired James Franklin in the middle of the season.
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: Terry Smith over his interim co offensive coordinator and tight
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: ends coach Ty Howey. He's been hired as the offensive
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: coordinator et Virginia Tech. You've got a bunch of this
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: staff that is following James Franklin down to Blacksburg. The
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is headed to Tennessee. Any codl Nicky,
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: I have no idea what codon Nicky's doing. I mean,
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: good gracious. The offensive line coach is going to be
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: Florida's next offensive line coach? Who knows? Who knows? And
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: yet on the other side, the defensive tackle Kate part
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: he has opted out for Clemson. The safety Khalil Barnes,
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: he is in the transfer portal, so who knows if
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: that means that he's going to play or not. As
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: far as potential opt outs, Clemson has just as many
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: as Penn State. Right defensive tackle Peter Woods, defensive end
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: t J. Parker, the cornerback Avion Terrell, and the wide
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: receiver Antonio Williams. All of those are already declared for
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: the NFL Draft. The cornerback Jayden Lucas, defensive end Will Helt,
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: and the left tackle Blake Miller are all potential opt outs.
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: The quarterback kpe club Nick, though, has said that he
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: is going to play. We'll see what that means. Clemson,
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: by the way, seven and five Penn State. Six and
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: six Penn State had to win their last three games
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: to get to a bowl game. The head coach, Dabo
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: Sweeney did say that he's not expecting many opt outs,
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: but who knows. Clemson is looking to extend his FBS
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: record of consecutive years with a postseason victory to fifteen.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: That's a crazy, crazy number. So if you're fighting for something, obviously,
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: it seems like Clemson is much more motivated here than
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: Penn State. I don't even know who's left in the
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: football building for Penn State. Clemson does have some injuries.
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: The offensive lineman Jacobs, he got hurt in Week twelve.
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: He's out for the All of these guys are out
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: for the year, by the way, So Jacob's the offensive lineman,
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: wide receiver westco the right guard Parks, and the tight
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: end Pat Henry. All those guys out for the rest
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: of the year. The numbers I don't think are gonna
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: matter here. Penn State number twenty nine and PBA margin.
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: Clemson is number forty three. That Penn State defense was
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: just not nearly as good once Rojas went out, like,
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: just not even close. They're both kind of slow. Clemson
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: number eighty in plays per minute and Penn State number
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: one oh two. Penn State not terrible on offense. They
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: can still run the ball. Now, obviously it all depends
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: on who the hell plays right, but number twenty four
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: and PPA per rush. They run the ball over fifty
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: six percent of the time. Their number twenty five and
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: rushing success rate. So you got a young quarterback. Everybody
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: knows that you're going to run the ball, and they
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: were still able to run it. Now, some of that
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: had to do with the strength of schedule and whatnot,
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: especially down the stretch, but Penn State number seventeen is
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: shooting the schedule, Clemson number sixty two. And yet I
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: still am leaning Clemson because I think that they've still
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: got their head coach, they still got their coordinators, they
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: still got their guys, and their quarterback has already said
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: that they're playing, or that he's playing. I don't know
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: what Penn State is going to look like. Penn State
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: does have a special team's advantage and a bit of
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: a talent advantage that's all based on whether or not
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: those players play. So both of these teams number twenty
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: and number twenty one in five factors rank Penn State.
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: You look at their numbers and it's just shocking to
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: me that they lost six games like that. There's just
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: no I don't understand it. Number twenty four in points
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: for scoring opportunity for Penn State's offense, number forty eight
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity on defense. I think you're more
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: likely to have guys play for Clemson than you are
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: for Penn State. And with that said, even though the
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: numbers all certainly lean Penn State, Power rating has Penn
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: State minus four and a half, projected stat spread has
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: Pen State by a point and a half. Last four
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: weeks has Clemson minus two. But again, we're doing this
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: on December fifteenth, and I'm gonna guess that Penn State
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: will have some opt outs. I don't know that Clemson
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: is going to have a lot. And with that said,
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: I'll take Clemson. Give me the Tigers minus the three
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: and a half Saturday, December twenty seventh, one fifteen pm
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: Central Time, the Wasabi Finway Bowl, and you got Army
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: playing against Yukon, and this Yukon team is going to
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: look drastically different than what you have seen so far
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: this year. Jim Mora is headed to Colorado State, his
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: offensive coordinator is headed to TCU. The quarterback Joe Fagnano
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: is potentially going to opt out. There are reports that
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: say that he's not going to play. And the wide
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: receiver Skylar Bell, who has Senior Bowl bound, both of
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: them are not going to play here Yukon Transfer Portal.
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: You got the right guard Brady Weyburn, and the running
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: back Cam Edwards, who is saying that he's still going
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: to play, but obviously we'll see. And then of course
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: you've got tight end three Veren he's injured, last played
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: in week eleven, Defensive tackle Carol Jackson last played in
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: week twelve, and the safety Mills last played in week
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: twelve as well. Army looks like they're a bit healthier.
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: They looked good against Navy, even in a loss. We'll see,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: we'll see what they look like here. But this thing
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: opened as Army a three point favorite, and now you've
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: got Army as an eight and a half point favorite
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: with a total of forty six and a half to
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: forty seven and a half depending on which book you
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: get it at. It opened at fifty and a half
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: for the total. So let's these numbers are not gonna
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: matter very much. Yukon's offense was number eighteen and PBA
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: per play number thirty two in offensive success rate, the
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: Army defense number one twenty one. They are terrible against
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: the pass. But if Facnano is not gonna play, and
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: the wide receiver Skylar Bell is not gonna play, and
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: you're right guard may not be playing, who knows, but
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: I do find it difficult, Like the reason that everybody
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: has been on Army when it was less than a touchdown,
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: it made a whole lot of sense because you know
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: what you're gonna get from Army. You know what the
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: motivation is. They show up for every bowl game. Two
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: and one against the spread in bowl since twenty twenty
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: plus two point eight, Yukon one and one against the
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: spread in bowl since twenty twenty plus six point eight.
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams are fairly motivated. Yukon significantly better
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: on special teams. The talent is in Yukon's favor, although
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: it's not crazy. The talent's always going to be in
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: the favor of whoever's playing against the Service academy. But
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: you know, Service academies are disciplined, so you know exactly
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: what they're going to look like. But man, that Army defense,
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: it was just bad this year. Number one oh three
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: in PPA per pass. There are number fifty nine in
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: yards allowed for attempt, number sixty eight in QBR allowed,
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: but they're number one twenty two in passing success allowed,
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: number one twenty one in havoc Yukon it doesn't look
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: like they're going to have a ton of opt outs,
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: but when your quarterback and your wide receiver are gone,
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, you never know, never know what that's going
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: to look like. Yukon number four in turnover margin. Army
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: is number thirty five. Yukon's big thing is they don't
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: throw interceptions, But how do you know when you don't
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: know who the guy is that's going to be playing.
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: Army favored by eight and a half feels like a
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: lot here. I would have had a Yukon favored if
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: everybody was playing. But obviously there is a difference as
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: far as strength of schedule, et cetera. But Yukon typically
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: would get up for games like this. I just I
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: think it's too many points and maybe this is one
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: to bet live that might be your best route. Yukon
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: is terrible against the run, by the way. On defense,
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: it don't matter who plays there, Army is gonna be
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: able to run the football on them. Army number seventy
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: two in yards per rush, Yukon number ninety one rushing success,
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: Army number eighty three, Yukon number one thirty one. But
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: when you get into offensive line yards and stuff right,
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: Army number sixty three in offensive line yards Yukon number
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: one twenty nine, Army number seven and stuff rate allowed
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: Yukon number one thirty six and stuff rate, So Army's
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: gonna be able to run all over them. Can they
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: finish drives that's another question. Because they are number eighty
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: three in offensive red zone conversion percentage number fifty eight
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: an offensive red zone touchdown rate, Yukon is number ninety
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: three in defensive red zone touchdown rate allowed. I want
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: to take Yukon here so bad because this number has
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: gotten outrageous. But one thing that we have learned from
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: bowlseason is if you're not motivated and your guys aren't there,
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: it can get ugly quickly. Yukon men never touched the football.
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, let's be honest here. I think Army shows up.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: We didn't get it at the best number. I'll take
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: the favorite. I don't feel good about it. I wouldn't
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: bet this game if ever you, but if you, if
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: you feel like you've got to have action on I
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: would pick Army Army minus eight and a half on
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: this one. The Pop Tards Bowl, the most fun bowl
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: game in all of Bowls season in Orlando, Florida, and
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: we got BYU going up against Georgia Tech. This one Saturday,
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: December twenty seven, two thirty pm Central Time, God's time
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: zone of course, on ABC, and BYU is a four
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite total of fifty five and
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: a half to fifty six and a half. So it's
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: sitting right in between the key number there of fifty six.
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: It's over the key number fifty five. This thing opened
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: at fifty six, opened as BYU a three point favorite,
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: and then you start hearing about Buster Faulkner taking the
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: OC position at Florida, the Chris Sorry, the co offensive
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: coordinator Chris Winkie probably going to take over play calling
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: duties for the bowl game. Hans King and the wide
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: receiver Eric Rivers both are expected to play. You could
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: have the right guard Keeling Rutledge and the running back
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: Jamal Haynes sit out for this one. Those are potential
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: opt outs. As far as injuries go, the defensive tackle
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: Stone he last played in Week thirteen, the edge rusher
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: Andre Fuller, he only played three snaps against Georgia, and
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: the defensive back Jay Gilmour. He's out for the season.
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: He last played in Week thirteen. As far as byu goes,
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: bear Bachmeyer was hobbled in the Big twelve championship game.
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: He's had weeks to be able to prepare for this one.
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: I would imagine that he plays. Is he fully healthy.
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: There's not been a lot of news on that. Who
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: knows As far as potential opt outs left tackle Jada,
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: the running back l J. Martin, wide receiver Chase Roberts,
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: defensive tackle Keanu Tanuvasa. That does not seem like the
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: kind of program that's gonna have a bunch of guys
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: opt out. You can almost bank on them the same
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: way that you can bank on service academies. As far
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: as Bowl games go, right BYU in Bowl games three
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: and one against the spread in bowls since twenty twenty,
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: they are plus ten and a half. At Georgia Tech
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: one and one plus four in bowls since twenty twenty.
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: Both teams I think are gonna show up here. I
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: think they're they're something gonna try. But good gracious, uh,
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: and yeah, there's a talent differential. Georgia Tech number thirty nine,
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: b YU number seventy two. But b YU is physical.
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, they are just there's just something about that bunch,
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: and Georgia Tech supposedly has better lines of scrimmage, but man,
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: you'd be hard pressed to find anybody that's gonna play
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: harder than those two. B YU number twenty three and
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: p BA margin Georgia Tech is number forty six. Georgia
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: Tch's offense is what made them a good team this year.
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: They are just bad on defense, and if LJ. Martin
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: and that bunch plays, it's gonna be hard for them
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: to get BYU off the field because b YU number
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: twenty six and PBA per rush Georgia Tech number seventy
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: four BYU's offense number thirty nine. In yards per rush
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech's defense number ninety five, number thirty three. In
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: rushing success rate for BYU's offense, Georgia Tech number seventy BYU,
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: they don't scare me throwing the ball, but they are
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: better throwing it than Georgia Tech is at defending it
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: as far as points per scoring opportunity. Who can finish
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: drive is better BYU is number forty Georgia Tech number
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: fifty seven. Georgia Tech does have a huge special team's
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: advantage here at number six in special teams efficiency BYU
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: is number fifty seven. Georgia Tech on offense, I mean
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: they're gonna BYU's defense is good, like they are really
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: really good, and Georgia Tech likes to run the ball
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: BYU pretty good at stopping it number thirty one and
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: rushing success allowed number twenty five and rushing explosiveness allowed.
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: These two teams are pretty even. Georgia Tech number seventy
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: six and points per scoring opportunity, so they have not
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: been good at finish drives BYU's defense number thirty six.
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: You're looking at number thirty seven and thirty eight in
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: raw five factors rank. I think that I can count
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: on BYU showing up and playing really hard. Here Georgia
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: Tech gets a little questionable. I'm not totally certain. And
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: when you look at turnover margin BYU number twenty one
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: Georgia deck number one ten, I think you might even
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: count on BYU winning the turnover battle here. I will
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: go on and tell you I already bet this thing
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: when it was three, as soon as it came out.
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: It's at four and a half. I don't like the
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: fact that it's gotten into such a high number, but
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: I will take the favorite BYU minus four and a half. Here,
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: I think they cover and Georgia dech I think will
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: put up a fight. But you're looking up. My projected
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: stat spread has BYU minus nine power rating BYU minus
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: six four weeks by U minus thirteen. BYU beat everybody
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: except for Texas Tech. Georgia Tech not so much. I'll
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: take the Cougars at minus four and a half. Why
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: struggle doing everything yourself? On fiver you can hire professionals
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: for just about anything, marketing, editing, design and more. Save time.
• 50:23
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• 50:25
  Speaker 1: to get started. And if you like the stats spreadsheets
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: that we're showing here on the show, of course, go
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: and check out buy me a Coffee dot Com Slash
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: Winning Cures. I got bonus content that goes up over there,
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: random stats. There is a matchup comparison tracker, so hypothetical
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: playoff matchups, et cetera. If you want to check those out,
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: or who would be favored over who, what the matchups
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: look like, etc. All these different stats that are good
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: for gamblers but also just curious minds. So go ahead
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: and check that out. Buy me a Coffee dot Com
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: Slash Winning Cures. The easy way to check it is,
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: of course, BETTINGCFB dot com. At our fifth game on Saturday,
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: December twenty seventh is a Snoop Dogg's Arizona Bowl presented
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: by Gin and Juice by Dre and Snoop. I think
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: I got all that stuff in there. Tucson, Arizona is
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: the location. It's on the CW at three thirty pm
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: Central Time, God's time zone, of course. Miami of Ohio
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: and Fresno State are playing here. Fresno State currently a
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: four and a half point favorite total of forty two
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: and a half on this one. And let's sort through
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: the transfer portal, the potential opt outs, all that kind
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: of mess. Let's end, of course, am using the Action
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: Networks tools. Stuck. He does a fantastic job with this thing,
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: keeping up with all the different guys that might be out,
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: guys that have been injured, etc. I mean, it gives
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: you a full just somebody should do this for the
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: full season. I'll tell you that starting wide receiver Cam Perry,
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: he led the nation and yards per catch. He is
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: in the portal for Miami of Ohio. They're starting defensive
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: end Adam Trick, that's their best defensive player. They're starting
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: cornerback Yarbrough, starting right tackle Drew terror And then you've
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: also got potential opt outs both safeties Blakie and Walters
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: he put on here. I'd guess they'll play, yeah, Miami
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: of Ohio, Chuck Martin. That's typically what they do. So
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: even if they're in the portal, they're still probably going
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: to play. Injuries here, you've got the linebacker Andrew who
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: missed the final two games, the running back Kenny Tracy
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: de Kwon Finn left the program. He's getting ready for
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: the NFL. Like guests, who knows wide receiver Cam Perry.
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: I mentioned to him being a in the transfer portal,
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: but he also got banged up at the end of
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: the MAC title game. They moved back to the veteran
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: quarterback Henry Hessen. In the MAC Title game, they were
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: with the freshman quarterback Tommy got Kowski. We'll see what
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: that means. I mean, who knows, So this is just
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: kind of a hodgepodge. Who knows what Miami of Ohio's
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: roster is gonna look like? Frozen of State. The safety
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: Jayden Daniels, sorry, Jayden Davis is in the portal. And
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: then they've got the potential opt outs cornerback Hamilton, defensive
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: lineman Corey Foreman. Those are potential opt outs. We'll see
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: Fresno State injuries of course, the safety Ryan Wilson, he
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: missed the finale. Defensive tackle OWUSU last played in Week ten,
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: and the linebacker Thunderbird fantastic name, last played in week seven,
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: so he's out. This is I mean, it should be
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: a fun matchup. It's got Fresno by four and a half.
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: My stat sheet has Fresno by three point six three
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: power rating has Fresno by one point one, and my
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: last four weeks I've only got Fresno by zero point
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: seven to eight, so it's an interesting, interesting spot. Fresno
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: was favored by three and a half. There has been
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: some action on the Bulldogs here. The Mac typically does
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: not do well in bowl games, although they have done
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: slightly better in recent years. You look at this and
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: Fresno offense is not good, number one eleven in PPA
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: per drive. They are number one to one in offensive
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: success rate. They really bad run in the football. Miami's
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: defense is good, number thirty one in PPA allowed per drive.
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: They are number forty five in defensive success rate. They're
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: really good against the run, not as good against the pass,
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: but still better than what Fresno is gonna throw at them.
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: Fresno is number one oh four and points per scoring opportunity,
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: Miami of Ohio's defense is number fifty five. Miami of
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: Ohio significant advantage on special teams. Miami of Ohio has
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: the talent edge in this matchup with his That's not
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: common for a Mountain West versus Mac game. But regardless,
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: Miami of Ohio on offense, the numbers are just kind
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: of all over the place, and Fresno's defense is really good.
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: They're not great against the run, and that's what Miami
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: is gonna want to do. They are number fifty two
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: in rushing explosiveness, Fresno is number fifty one on defense.
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: Miami is number forty in offensive line yards, Fresno is
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: number fifty nine. Yeah, it's it's kind of it's kind
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: of interesting. Miami is number eighty eight and points per
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity, Fresno is number fifty six and points allowed
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity. Of course, scoring opportunity is when the
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: opponent gets a first down inside the forty yard line,
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: so that's when you get a scoring opportunity. So you
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: look at turnover margin, both of them are inside the
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: top forty. You look at penalties per game. You know,
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: Miami is number forty eight, Fresno is number eighty six.
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: I don't see a huge difference between these two. And
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: when you start looking at bowl games, Fresno two and
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: two against the spread in bowl since twenty twenty, Miami
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: of Ohio always shows up four and oh plus eleven
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: point three. Here. I think Miami can hang around in
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: this thing. I know that the quarterback situation is weird.
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: I know that Fresno has played better. I know that,
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: you know, good gracious the quarterback E. J. Warner, that's
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: the name I was looking for. I know that he
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: has been the quarterback here and whatnot. Like I just
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: feel like Miami can hang around and probably win the game.
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: So I think that the direction has moved the wrong
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: way here. I'm gonna go with the dog. Give me
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: Miami of Ohio plus four and a half here. Saturday,
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: December twenty seven to four to forty five pm Central time,
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: the isleta New Mexico Bowl, This one in Albuquerque, New Mexico,
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: North Texas and San Diego State. This one's on ESPN.
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: North Texas a three to three and a half point favorite,
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: depending on the book total of fifty five and a
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: half on this and who knows what this is going
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: to look like. San Diego State. I think we know
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: what we can expect from those guys. But North Texas,
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: you've got a bunch of injuries with the running back Hawkins,
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: linebacker Winter, the backup running back McGill he hadn't played
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: since Week eight, wide receiver Evans, and then you've got
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: the potential opt out of course, the coach is gone.
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: Eric Morris took the job at Oklahoma State. Neil Brown,
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: former Troy coach, former West Virginia coach. He is going
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: to be the new guy. But you know, I'm the quarterback.
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: Drew Musttermaker is going to be in the portal. He's
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: going to go somewhere big. It might be with Morris
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: overt Oklahoma State, who knows, but we know in the portal,
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: we've got Jaden Williams and we've got Drew Mustermaker bringing
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: back Caleb Hawkins could sit out. The wide receivers, Young
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: and Coleman could set out are they going to be
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: as productive? Maybe not? And how many good defenses did
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: North Texas actually play? And on top of that, how
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: many good passing attacks did San Diego State really play
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: this year? The one team that throws the ball a lot,
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: Hawaii absolutely rip them apart. So this is a weird
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: matchup to try and figure out San Diego State potential
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: opt outs here. They've got the edge Trey White, They've
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: got the linebacker Chambliss, the cornerback Johnson. Johnson is going
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: to be drafted. Chambers's and White both could follow the
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: defensive coordinator over to Nebraska. We'll see what that looks like. Yeah,
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: Rob Barretch, the defensive coordinator. Yes, he's going to Nebraska,
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: so he is not going to be here. The passing
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: game coordinator, Demetrius Summler is going to serve as the
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: interim DC for the bowl game. That's weird. I'm not
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: used to the passing game coordinator taking over as defensive coordinator.
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: But alas, if you're a good coach or good coach,
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: and it is what it is, transfer portal. You've got
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: the defensive end, beaty in the edge at Salvadi. Both
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: of those are backups. My guess is they'll probably play.
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: Who knows, I don't think we've You've got guys missing
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: on defense for San Diego State, got guys missing on
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: offense from North Texas. So the two strengths of these
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: two teams. North Texas is number five in the country
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: in PPA per drive on offense. San Diego State is
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: number three in the country in PPA allowed on defense.
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: Who knows what that's gonna mean. My projected stat spread
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: has North Texas by almost four points. My power rating
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: has North Texas minus four point eight, and over the
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: last four weeks I would have North Texas favored by
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: seventeen point five to eight. But if you don't have
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: mess to maker, if you don't have these wide receivers,
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: Morris is not calling the plays. What is this North
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: Texas team going to actually look like? San Diego State
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: massive advantage on special teams. They're number one versus North
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: Texas number sixty two. North Texas's defense number ninety eight
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: in points allowed per scoring opportunity, San Diego State's offense
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: number ninety seven. San Diego State can run the football
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: and they are going to run it a lot here.
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: They run it almost sixty three percent of the time. Well,
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: teams run the ball almost sixty percent of the time
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: on North Texas, and that's wild because typically North Texas
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: has pretty big leads. Now, they have played Army and
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: Navy this year and Rice, so three triple option teams.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: That's obviously going to skew the numbers quite a bit.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: But you know you're looking at a pace battle here, uh,
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: North Texas number nineteen in pace of play, San Diego
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: State number one twelve. On the other side, North Texas
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: is number two in points for scoring opportunity. San Diego
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: State's defense is number two in points allowed per scoring opportunity,
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: But again, defensive coordinator for the best defense on the
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: field is gone. The play caller and the head coach
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: and the potentially the quarterback and whatnot gone. On the
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: other side, I think, I think San Diego State is
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: going to be able to run the ball quite a
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: bit here, and I think they'll be able to keep
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: the ball away from North Texas. And this offense is
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: kind of predicated on reps, right, you got to be
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: real good, you gotta have a lot of chemistry. I mean,
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: we were talking about four wide receivers potentially gone for
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: North Texas and the quarterback may not play at that point,
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: I can't go with the favorite, even though I don't
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: know what to expect from San Diego State's defense. Both
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: of these teams outside the top one fifteen and current
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule, which is wild. But I'm not expecting
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: a whole lot from this ballgame. Like I mean, the
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: total is it was fifty six and a half is
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: down to fifty five and a half, and I would
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: expect an under to hit. I've got to project a
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: total of fifty on this. I think that San Diego
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: State is gonna hold onto the ball for a while.
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be able to run it, and
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: I would expect not a lot of points. And in
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: that situation, if I'm getting more than a field goal,
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: I'm going dog. So give me San Diego State plus
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: three and a half. I will go with the team
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: that is keeping their head coach. Saturday, December twenty seven
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: to six thirty pm Central Time the tax Slayer Gator Bowl.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: This one is on ABC in Jacksonville, Florida. Virginia against Missouri.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: Missouri is six and a half to seven point favorite
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: total forty eight and a half. On this one, let's
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: go through some of the transfer portal stuff. The starting
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: cornerback Prevard for Virginia, he's in the portal. Don't know
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: what that means as far as him sitting out Virginia
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: potential opt out. You got the running back Taylor, quarterback
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: Chandler Morris, defensive end Kmick, safeties Cleary and Neil. And
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: then you've got the injuries right the linebacker Robinson, he's
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: out for the year. Wide receiver Trell Harris, he left
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: the ACC title game with an injury. And then you
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: get the right guard Wigginton as well Missouri transfer Portal,
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: the wide receiver Josh Manning. He had three hundred and
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: eighteen yards two touchdowns. And then you've got a slew
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: of potential opt outs. Left tackle Green, right tackle Troust,
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: center Tollison, the defensive ends Young and Wilson, the second
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: Kevin Coleman, the wide receiver, tight end Bretton Norfleet, linebacker
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: Josiah Trotter, defensive tackle Chris McLellan, the quarterback Bo Prebula,
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: and the safety Jailing Catalan. I would not expect a
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: ton of them to opt out. You look at Missouri's record,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: they are eight and four, probably like to get to
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: a ninth win. Who knows, but I don't think motivation
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: is going to be an issue for either one of
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: these teams. My projected stat spread has Missouri minus eight
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: point eight two, My power rating has Missouri minus six.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: My last four weeks has Missouri minus six point eight two.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: And some of these numbers are Missouri is number eighteen
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: in PBA margin, And that's even at the quarterback Perbulah
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: missing a couple of games, three games whatever it was
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: in the middle of the year, and then he came
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: back and looked fantastic against Arkansas. They did a fantastic
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: job in that finale. Virginia, I mean, what do you
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: do when you get your heart ripped out like that?
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: I mean, they really should be in the playoff right now,
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: and you lose the ACC championship game to a seven
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: and five duke team that probably shouldn't have been there.
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: I hate to use those kind of words, but I
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: mean you get the point. So looking at this, Missouri
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: is the better overall team. Virginia better on special teams,
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: but as far as overall talent rank, Missouri is a
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: top twenty unit Virginia number sixty six. But Virginia did
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: a good job of getting a lot of older players
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: in the portal that really work together, and they played
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: a significantly easier schedule in Missouri. Virginia number seventy nine.
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: Current strength of schedule Missouri number twenty six. Missouri, on offense,
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: can run the football, and Virginia has been good at
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: stopping the run, but not great number forty six and
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: rushing success allowed number forty five and ppa allowed per rush.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: They are better against the pass, I think, but again,
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: who have you played that can really take advantage of you?
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: Points per scoring opportunity Missouri number forty two, and finishing
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: drives at Virginia number twenty five and points allowed per
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity, So you know, Virginia pretty good at keeping
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: teams out of the end zone. But eh, I don't
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: feel great about it because I know what their competition
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: looked like and Duke Duke didn't seem to have trouble scoring.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: So Missouri's defense probably the best unit on the field,
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: number ten in PPA allowed per drive, Virginia's offense number
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: fifty three, And then of course course we don't know
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: exactly what the offense is going to look like for Virginia,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: but even still, Missouri really good against the past. Number
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: eight in PPA allowed per pass, Virginia is number seventy six.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: Virginia better at running the football than they are throwing it,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: but they are number forty in yards per rush, Missouri's
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: number seventeen. There are number twenty seven in PPA per rush.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: Missouri's defense is number forty three there, but Missouri number
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: nineteen and rushing success allowed number nineteen and rushing explosiveness allowed.
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: Virginia is number sixty one and number eighty in those
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: two metrics. So I wouldn't expect a ton. Virginia is
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: number seventy in points per scoring opportunity. Missouri's defense number
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: sixty five in points allowed per scoring opportunity. So I
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: mean it makes sense the number forty one a defensive
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: rid zone touchdown rate allowed. Yeah, I I feel like
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: Virginia's number ninety nine an offensive rid zone touchdown rate.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: You look at five factors, these teams are twenty seven
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: to twenty eighth. But when you actor in the talent,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: of course, Missouri jumps up to number fourteen, Virginia number
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: forty eight. In bowl games, Virginia has not been to
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: a bowl game since twenty twenty. Missouri has, and they
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: are three and one against the spread in those bowl
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: games plus three point nine, so they play well above
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: average in those. I'm going with the favorite. The best
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: number I can get right now is a seven, or sorry,
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: a six and a half. I think Missouri shows up
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: in a big way here. All of this could change,
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: because we were talking about this on December sixteenth. Now,
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: if Eli Trinquitts were to get the Michigan job something
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: along those lines, maybe I would change my tune. But
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: as it sits currently, so long as even if there's
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: a few opt outs and whatnot, I still think Missouri
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: is a significantly better team than Virginia. I'm gonna take
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: the favorite. Give me the Tigers minus six and a half.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: The Kenders Texas Bowl Saturday, December twenty seventh, eight to
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: fifteen pm Central Time on ESPN. LSU and Houston playing
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: in Houston, Texas. That's right, this one at Energy Stadium'm
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: not at the Houston their official field, which I forget
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: the name of, shame on me. Houston is a two
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: and a half three point favorite total forty one and
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: a half on this and kind of shocked at this,
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: honestly that Houston would be favored here, but the number
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: has come down. Houston was a three and a half
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: point favorite at open and there are you know, potential
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: opt outs and whatnot. There's some injuries and whatnot for LSU,
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: but this is still a significantly more talented roster than
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: what Houston is bringing to the to the fight. LSU
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: number five and overall team talent per on three, Houston
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: is number fifty four LSU better at special teams number sixty,
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: Houston number ninety six. Houston's offense number one oh eight
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: so even with Connor Wigman there, they've not been great.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: Number one twenty three in passing success rate, but there
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: are number forty five in PPA for pass. Part of
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: that has to do with them being explosive in the
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: passing game, number sixty three in passing explosiveness. What LSU
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: is number fifty one. LSU's defense is good and Blake
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: Baker is hanging around. He's still gonna be there, so
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: who knows what that means? LSU the transfer portal, their
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: defensive tackle, Amad bro Yeah, that's b r e a
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: Ux two hundred seventy four snaps this year. He is
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: in the portal, has not said that he's not playing,
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: but who knows. LSU opt outs, the cornerback Delaney, a
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: potential first round pick, He has said he is not
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: gonna play. Potential opt outs safety Hall Seed, defensive end Peyton,
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: defensive Endieburn left or sorry, linebacker Harold Perkins, and then
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: the wide receivers Thomas and Brown potentially he had some injuries.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: Of course, the quarterback Garrett ness Meyer, he hadn't played
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: since Week eleven. He is not going to play here
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: with Weeks is not going to play here. That's the linebacker,
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: the center Braylan Moore, he missed the finale, but he's
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: got a chance to play, per the interim coach Frank Wilson.
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: Then you got the wide receivers Aaron Anderson and wide
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: receiver Nick Anderson. Both of them last played in week
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: eleven and twelve. You know, Aaron Anderson status is up
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: in the air regardless, Michael van Buren is going to
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: be the starter on this for Houston. They're starting center
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: Demetrius Hunter. He left the program on December eighth. He's
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: no longer on the roster. They do have some potential
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: opt outs, not nearly as many as LSU, but the
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: running back Connors, defensive end or sorry, tight end Tanner
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: Cooziall and the defensive end walls Connor Wigman is going
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: to be back, so he should play here. Khalil Lafo like, nope,
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: that ain't it that Houston fans tell me how to
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: pronounce this guy's name, le Fay you something? He missed
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: the finale. And then the wide receiver Stephan Johnson. He
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: last played in Week seven, so he's not gonna play here,
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: I would imagine. So looking at this, I've already talked
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: to some of the numbers. LSU's offense is atrocious at
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: running the football. Houston is pretty good on defense number
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: thirty six and PPA allowed for drive. But you're talking
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: about a huge strength of schedule difference here. I mean,
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: it's a chasm between these two. LSU number ten in
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: current strength of schedule, Houston number seventy one, and LSU
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: tends to get up for these games. These guys want
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: to play for Frank Wilson, it appears, at least that's
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: what it sounds like. But LSU really bad on offense,
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: just terrible passing it. They throw the ball almost fifty
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: six percent of the time, but number seventy six and
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: QBR number seventy three and passing success rate. But they
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: are number one thirty in passing explosiveness number ninety eight
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: and PBA per pass number one hundred yards per pass attempt.
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: Houston way better at all of those metrics than LSU is,
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: and even worse than the passing game. The running game
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: for LSU number one twenty and PPA per rush number
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: one fifteen, in yards per rush number one eighteen, and
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: rushing success Houston's defense number thirty nine, number thirty nine
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: and number one oh three in those I don't expect
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: a lot of offense here. We got a total of
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: it opened at forty one and a half. It is
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: still at forty one and a half, so it's below
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: the key of forty two. I'd still probably take an
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: under here. When you look at pace of play, Houston's
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: number seventy one, LSU's number one eleven. I think you're
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: gonna get some interesting stuff out of these two teams.
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: LSU is just so much more talented. And if Frank
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: Wilson is not having to play against Oklahoma and Texas
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: A and M and Alabama and I mean you name
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: it right, they should be okay. I don't necessarily trust Houston.
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: I like Willie Fritz, but this is just one of
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: those where it's the Jimmies and Joe's I'm gonna go
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: with the dog. I can get a three here, I
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: will take LSU plus three in this matchup. Stop guessing
• 1:13:17
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• 1:13:21
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• 1:13:25
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• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: sign up today if you've not already subscribe, to the
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: podcast at wherever you get your podcast. I've swapped over hosts.
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: I'm doing something a little bit different. We're going with
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: Spreaker now. But yeah, I do some audio only stuff.
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: I talk about the sport more over there. Obviously here
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: on the YouTube channel, it is all picks, really, I
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: mean I've made four hundred and thirty or forty something picks,
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: whatever it is. But that's what I do. On the
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: YouTube channel. I pick games. I give you my analysis
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: on the matchups. It's very predictive over here. We talk
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: about the sport as a whole, much more general discussion
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: over on the audio pod. So make sure you are
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: subscribed over there and leave a nice five star review
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: if you would so kindly. And of course, if you're
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: watching this video instead of listening to the audio, do
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: me a favor and in subscribe to the channel, like
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: the video and jump in the comments. Monday, December twenty
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: ninth the JLab Birmingham Bowl, and this one is at
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: one pm Central Time on ESPN Georgia, Southern and app State. Now,
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: this is what I'm talking about. If you got a
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: shot to make a matchup that is a rivalry game,
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: why not? Why not? Go ahead and do that thing.
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: App State probably shouldn't be in a bowl game. They're
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: five and seven, but you had so many teams opt
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: out of bowls and whatnot this year that why not
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: let's make the match up. Let's do it to it
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: this time instead of it being in Boone, North Carolina. Well,
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: let's bring it down to Birmingham. We're gonna have fun
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: with this thing. It's on a Monday, in the middle
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: of the day. Sick them. Let's get after it. Let's
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: get after it. Okay. A lot of injuries for Georgia Southern.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: The running back O j Arnold. He missed the finale.
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: The wide receiver Dalan Cobb missed the finale. The defensive
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: tackle Devin Low missed the finale. App State has a
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: bunch of guys in the portal. AJ Swan, the quarterback
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: lost his job late in the year. The quarterback JJ Cole.
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: He took the starting job late in the year, but
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: he's gonna be in the portal as well. The safety
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: DJ Burks, wide receiver Davion Dozer, cornerback Elijah mcantos, linebacker
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: Brayshawn little John, the edge Thomas Davis, and the offensive
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: tackle Danell Nicks app State. If Cole and Swan don't
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: suit up here, which they might, they've only got two
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks with experience on the roster. That's freshman Noah Gillen
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: and the senior Billy Wiles, who used to be at
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: Clemson and Southern Miss. App State does have some injuries.
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: The wide receiver Barns he didn't play in the last
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: two games. The right guard Trent Ramsey has not played
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: since Week eight. The tight end Cummings hasn't played since
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: Week nine in a safety highs that he missed the
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: last two games. Georgia Southern won the initial matchup twenty
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: five to twenty three. That was on the road. And
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: yet even with Georgia Southern favored here, which they're favored
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: by four and a half, a total of fifty nine
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: and a half on this that's up from the three
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: and a half that I had, my projected stats spread
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: actually has Appstate favored. My power rating has Georgia Southern
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: by two. My last four weeks has Georgia Southern minus
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: eleven point three to one. But again, with these bowl games,
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: you don't know exactly who's gonna suit up, who's gonna
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: play who knows at this point. Georgia Southern not very
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: good at running the football, so even with the running
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: back out, it is what it is. But they can
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: throw it an APP State can't defend the pass at all.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: Georgia Southern number twenty four in passing six access rate
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: APP State number one fifteen. I should tell you basically
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: all you need to know there, So Georgia Southern non
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: offense number forty two in points for scoring opportunity Appstate's
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: defense number one thirteen. On the other side, APP State,
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: in some games they were able to put up a
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: bunch of points. It's amazing to me that they were
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: not able to put up more than twenty three at
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: home on this Georgia Southern defense. Georgia Southern cannot stop
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: the run, but Appstate is not good at running it.
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: APP State number ninety eight and PPA per rush Georgia
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: Southern number one thirty four. You don't have a big
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: talent discrepancy between these two, I mean nothing crazy Appstates
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: better on special teams. As far as pace of play,
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: they're both inside the top forty. APP States number ten.
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: Georgia Southern number thirty six. The best unit on the
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: field is going to be the Georgia Southern offense. The
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: Eagles are number fifty four in offensive success rate. App
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: State is number ninety four. I don't see whole lot
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: changing between the first game that these two played and
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: this one. So I'll go ahead and tell you Georgia
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: Southern better in turnover margin, better in penalties per game
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: number thirty seven, and penalties per game to number ninety six,
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: number forty seven, and turnover margin to seventy one. App
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: State I think has motivation because they lost the earlier
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: matchup and they weren't supposed to be in a bowl game,
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: but they're five and seven and they got there anyway,
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: and you've got a rivalry game here. I just think
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: Georgia Southern is better, and they've played better down the stretch.
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: That's the way I'll take it. So the best number
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: I can get is four and a half. Give me
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: Georgia Southern minus four and a half. Tuesday, December thirtieth,
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: the Radiance Technology's Independence Bowl down in Shreveport. This one's
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: at one pm Central time on ESPN. Coastal Carolina and
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: Louisiana Tech and Louisiana Tech currently favored by eight and
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: a half. That's up from the seven and a half
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: that they were favored to start this thing. Total opened
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: at fifty one and a half. It's down to fifty
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: and a half. Not opened. It was at fifty one
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: and a half when I made the sheets. That was
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: the day after the balls were announced, so that total
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: has come down a little bit. The Shots have fired
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: their head coach, Tim Beck, so the defense coordinator Jeremia
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: Johnson's going to serve as the interim head coach for
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: the bowl game. Let's look at Coastal Carolina thus far
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: in the transfer portal. Their left tackle del grind he's
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: in the portal. That doesn't mean he's not going to play.
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: As far as injuries go. The quarterback Smarty Caller missed
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: the final two games with the knee injury. The left
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: tackle Nick del Grande missed two final games. If he
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: doesn't play, it's gonna be because he's injured, not because
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: of being in the portal. I would imagine the Quarterbackmu Young,
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: the linebacker Bruce, the safety Dante Thomas. Tad Hudson will
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: be the quarterback if Calier can't go in this one.
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: Louisiana Tech in the portal they've got the quarterback Evan Bullock,
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: both safeties Richard and Fields. The linebacker Mason Stucky on
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: Action Network said he would expect Trey kukook I. Hope
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: said they're right to start at the quarterback in the bowl.
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: He started the final two games of the season. Blake Baker,
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: the quarterback, got hurt in week eleven. He's out for
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: the year. The linebacker Fields he's been out since Week five,
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: and the right tackle Banister has been out since week seven.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: So they have already learned to play without some of
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: these guys, right. The quarterback being out for Louisiana Tack
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: kind of changes some things. But their offense wasn't great anyway.
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: Coastal is number one twenty six in PPA margin. So
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: how they made a bowl game. I'm not one hundred
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: percent sure they got to six and six, but obviously
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: they weren't happy with it because by god, they've fired
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: their coach. The defensive line is not looking great for
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: Louisiana Tack number one thirty five in position group. But yeah,
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, you've got a massive talent difference between these two.
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: Number one twenty two in overall talent rank for Louisiana
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: Tech number seventy five for Coastal, and you gotta wonder
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: about motivation here, right, this thing is seven and a half.
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: It's up to eight and a half. I've got Louisiana
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: Tech favored by nine point eight four. My power rating
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: has them by six. My last four weeks has Louisianattack
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: by twelve. But again without your quarterback, without some of
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: these very important pieces, what exactly does that mean? Louisiana
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: Tech has been fantastic on defense and Coastal can't run
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: offense on anybody. Coastal is number sixty one points for
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity. Louisiana's defense is number seventeen. I still believe
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: that Louisiana Tech is not going to allow a lot
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: of points. And when you start looking at turnover margin,
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: Coastal is number one twelve and giveaways per game, Louisiana
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: Tech is number thirteen in takeaways. So they are some ballhawks.
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna have better strength, better strength schedule,
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: what am I talking about? They're gonna have a better
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: field position. They I think will get some short fields.
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: So even if the offense is not very good, they're
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: still gonna be able to run it on Coastal. Interesting
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: spot here for sure. I don't know what the motivation
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: is for Coastal Carolina, and I mean they gotta go
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: all the way down to Louisiana, where Louisiana Tech should
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: have at least somewhat of a home contingency. Contingency I
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: don't know if that's the right word, but either way,
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: I think Louisiana Tech's a better football team, even if
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: the quarterback isn't playing, et cetera. Right, even with some
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: of these guys that could be out, I still think
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be better than what Coastal puts on the field.
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: And Louisiana Tech at home. They are zero to two
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: in bowl games since twenty twenty, so they would like
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: to get a bowl win here. And Coastal is one
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: in four against the spread in bowl games minus six
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: point four. So I'm I'm going to expect Louisiana Tech
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: to do good things. They're seven and five on the season,
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: probably want to get to that eighth win, and I
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: think that the numbers moving in the right direction here.
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: Louisiana Tach has played better as of late. Coastal. I
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: don't know what the motivation is for him. So give
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: me Louisiana Tech minus eight and a half in Shrevepoort
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: the Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl. That's right, this one
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: at four thirty pm Central Time in Nashville on ESPN.
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: You got the Tennessee volunteers and the Illinois fighting a line.
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: Tennessee is favored by two and a half to three
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: with a total of sixty and a half on this
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: the number has come down a little bit from Tennessee
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: was favored by five and a half. The total of
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: sixty one and a half has come down to sixty
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: and a half. Interesting to say the least. Tennessee fired
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: their defensive coordinator Ten Banks. They've brought in Jim Knowles.
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: He's not going to be coaching in this This is interesting.
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: William Inge, who is the linebacker's coach, He's going to
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: serve as the interim DC for this game. Yeah. I
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: Illinois head coach Brett Bielaman, he believes six to ten
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: players are going to enter the portal after the bowl game,
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: but they are going to be allowed to play. Only
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: one of those is a starter, though you do have
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: potential opt outs here. You got the safety Xavier Scott,
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: wide receiver Hank Beaty, tight end Tanner Arkin, Luke Outmeyer
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: is going to play in the bowl game. There are
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: a couple of opt outs already, linebacker Gabe Jacos and
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: the offensive lineman JC Davis, those have already opted out.
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: And then of course you've got some injuries. The linebacker
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: Jojo Hayden missed the finale, and the safety Matthew Bailey
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: had surgery. He's not going to play for Tennessee. You've
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: got a little bit of a longer list. Blue Carter's
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: already in the portal. He wasn't playing much anyway. You
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: do have a couple of opt outs for Tennessee, the
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: wide receiver Chris Brasel the second he's declared for the draft,
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: and the linebacker are On Carter has declared for the draft.
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: You do have potential opt outs here with the left
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: tackle Lance Herd, defensive end Joseph's cornerback Colton Hood, safety
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: McMurray in the tight end Kitzelman, who is also dealing
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: with an injury. Probably not gonna play, but those are
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: potential guys as far as injuries already mentioned the tight end,
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: but the quarnerback Jermad McCoy he's been out all year,
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: the cornerback Ricky Gibson the third out all year, and
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: then of course the edge rusher Jordan Ross. He missed
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: the finale. But I don't think that we were worried
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: about Tennessee's defense anyway, because it is what it is,
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: number sixty four and PPA allowed, number one oh four
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: in defensive success rate allowed. That was never going to
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: be a thing, and Illinois has not been good on
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: defense either. So it's a good offense against a good
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: offense and a bad defense against a bad defense. I mean,
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: that's what you're looking at. So the fact that the
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: total has come down is a little surprising. But you know,
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: with the wide receiver for Tennessee being out Brazil or
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: Brazil or whatever you want to call it, and that's
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 1: no offense. I just don't remember exactly how you pronounce
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: the name. I've been terrible at that this year. I
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: don't know if you guys are finding it harder to
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: pronounce some of these names, but man I used to
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: I used to really try and call me lazy. It
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: just they're going from team to team. I don't know
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: who's gonna be where every it's just it's it's a pandemic.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: That's what we'll call it, all right. So my projected
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: stat spread has Tennessee by three point eight five. My
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: power rating has Tennessee by three point one. The last
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: four weeks, I would have Illinois favored by one point.
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: Tennessee got housed at home by Vanderbilt at the end
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: of the year. This ain't the same kind of offense.
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: Tennessee knows about this offense, right, Illinois also knows what
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: to expect from this Tennessee offense. Neither team I think
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: is going to be able to stop the other one
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: really all that much. And if anyone was going to
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: be able too, I would trust Tennessee because they got
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: a more talented roster. And I know the talent isn't everything.
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 1: I know how that works. I know this, However, I
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: just can't unmarry myself from the idea that if you
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: got better football players, you're probably gonna win the game.
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: Just is what it is. Illinois is one and one
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: against the spread in bowl games since twenty twenty. Tennessee
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: is two and two against the spread in bowl games
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: since twenty twenty. Not much you can go on as
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: far as trends are concerned there Beilama in company did
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: play pretty well last year against South Carolina in the
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: bowl game. You were dealing with a completely different beast here,
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: you know, Josh Heipel. I mean, he's gonna draw up
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: some crazy stuff. But Barry Lundy might too. So who knows.
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: Tennessee on offense number twelve and points per scoring opportunity,
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: Illinois defense is number one twenty one. Tennessee's gonna be
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: able to score. On the other side, Illinois number twenty
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 1: eight in points for scoring opportunity. Tennessee's defense number one twelve.
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: And yet Tennessee's defense better than what Illinois is gonna
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: put out there, and their offense is better than Illinois offense.
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: So I know that a lot of people want to
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: buy into the Illinois stuff. I mean, this team, both
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: teams are eight and four and Illinois. Let's see, Illinois
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: played a tougher shot of the schedule. Number twenty three,
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: Tennessee number thirty three. Tennessee has not been a team
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 1: with a winning record all year. I think that changes here.
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: I think Tennessee wins the ball game. I got a
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: sec love here, I really do. It's kind of surprising.
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: I think Tennessee's better. How's that? So? Tennessee minus two
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: and a half is the direction I'm going in this one,
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: especially the fact I mean they're going to be in Nashville.
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be a mostly orange crowd. Well it'll be
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: orange anyway, but it's gonna be big, you know, go Valls,
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: go big Orange, whatever it is. And I think that
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: I trust Hypel to be able to put up points
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: a lot more than I trust Illinois. Give me the
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: Vaults minus two and a half. It has dropped low
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: enough where I feel comfortable with it, But I will
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: take Tennessee to win and cover the Valero Alamo Bowl.
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: This is the last bowl that we're going to talk
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 1: about on today's show, and this is a long win.
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: My apologies to you guys for that, but hey, we
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: got a lot of bowl games to discuss for this week.
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: USC and TCU. This one Tuesday, December thirtieth, eight pm
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 1: Central Time on ESPN, so much more fitting for the
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: team from the Pacific time zone. USC favored by five
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 1: and a half to six total of fifty nine and
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: a half on this USC t USC's reward for going
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: nine to three and maybe one game out of the
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 1: playoffs is to go down to San Antonio, down to
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: Texas to play against TCU. Is what it is. The
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: offensive coordinator for TCU, Kendle Brows, he has left. He
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: has gone to South Carolina. There's a chance that Josh Hoover,
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: the quarterback, follows him there. We haven't heard anything about
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 1: that as of yet, but Hoover's brother does play baseball.
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: I believe for the game Cocks, Sunny Dyke's has come
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: out and said that he expects everybody to play. They
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: do have some potential opt outs. I mentioned Hoover, the quarterback,
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: tight end DJ Rodgers, wide receiver Eric McAllister. The safety
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 1: is at Bud Clark and Jamel Johnson, defensive end Paul
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 1: o'ye Wally, and then the linebacker Caleb alarums or. There
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 1: are injuries of course, Bud Clark he missed the final
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: two games. The safety Kylin Jackson, he missed the finale.
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: The running back of Rian Barnes, he hadn't played since
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 1: week eleven. We'll see what happens there. USC The list
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: is longer and much more up in the air. Right
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: The cornerback Braylan Conley is in the transfer portal. USC
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: does have a couple of opt outs or three opt outs.
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: Jacoby Lane, the wide receivers out, the safety Kamari Ramsey,
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: he's not gonna play, and then the tight end Lake
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: McRee he's not going to play either. There are more
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: potential opt outs. I would guess that Makai Lemon, the
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: wide receiver, I would guess that he is not going
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: to play. Here, the quarterback Jade Mayeva, he has already
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: re signed with the USC and he will play. The
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: edge Anthony Lucas, linebacker Eric Gentry, defensive jackal Keishawn Silver,
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 1: cornerback DJ Harvey, and the safety Bishop Fitzgerald, who is
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: also dealing with an injury. As far as other injuries
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: are concerned, left tackle Elijah Page, with the wide receiver
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 1: Wayman Jordan, he hadn't played since Week seven, and of
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 1: course the right guard Elani Noah. He missed the finale.
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 1: So you got a lot of different faces when it
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: comes to this. If you didn't have any faces that
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: were missing or whatever, my projected stats spread would be
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 1: USC minus seven point seven to one. The power rating
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: has USC by almost eight points, and then my last
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 1: four weeks would have USC minus fourteen and a half.
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: TCU went eight and four this year, which is pretty
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: good record. As far as bowl games are concerned. Both
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 1: of these teams are eight and one two to one
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: against the spread, TCU minus three and USC is plus eight.
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 1: As far as that is concerned against the number in
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: bowl games, USC more talent, but it's not as lopsided
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 1: as you would think. TCU number twenty six, USC number sixteen,
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: and overall talent rank per on three. Both teams outside
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: the top ninety in special teams efficiency. That's not great.
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 1: USC number seven in offensive success rate TCUs defense number
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 1: fifty eight. TCU's offense number forty eight in offensive success rate,
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 1: USC is number one seventeen in defensive success rate allowed.
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 1: That ain't great by any stretch. USC though, as far
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: as PPA allowed per drive their number sixty two. On defense,
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: TCU is number sixty seven, So if you go by
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 1: predicted points added, US actually a better defense when TCU
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: has the ball number thirty nine in points per scoring opportunity,
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: US is number forty one. The difference is that USC
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: is number one twenty eight in scoring opportunities allowed per game.
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: And if you haven't kept up that is when the
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: opponent gets the first down inside the forty yard line,
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 1: that is considered a scoring opportunity. So TCU is number
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: fifty four in scoring opportunities per game. So I think
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: they're going to be able to move the football here.
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 1: They'll be able to throw it on USC's defense. USC
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: is number seventy four in passing success allowed, number eighty
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 1: one in QBR allowed. TCU is number twenty five and
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 1: number thirty eight in those metrics. So Josh Hoover, if
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 1: he plays, should be able to throw the football on USC.
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: On the other side, USC will also be able to
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 1: throw the football on TCU. TCU number ninety two and
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: PBA allowed per pass USC's offense is number five, USC
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: number eight in points for scoring opportunity TCU's defense number
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: fifty three, But TCU allows a lot of scoring opportunities
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: per game. I this thing is under a touchdown and
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 1: I want to take USC, but I also don't know
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 1: exactly how motivated they're going to be to be in
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 1: this game. I mean, you've heard the list of opt
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: outs and potential opt outs. If they don't have Jacobe Lane,
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 1: if they don't have the if they don't have Mikaia Lemon.
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: There's still gonna be guys for Jad and Maiavid to
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: throw to TCU. I do think is gonna be able
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: to throw the football quite a bit. But we still
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 1: don't know anything about Josh Hoover and Eric McAllister and whatnot. Again,
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: Sonny Dyke said he expects everybody to play. This is
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: kind of a big spot for both of these and
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: it's going to be setting the tone going into a
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: big twenty twenty six season for both teams. And while
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: my numbers all say USC, I kind of think that
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 1: I would go with TCU, especially in San Antonio. So
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 1: I have seen USC just trot out random guys and
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: put on a clinic in some of these Bowl games.
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, they did it to Louisville just a couple
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: of years ago, so I or maybe that was last year. No,
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 1: it was two years ago, two years ago. Let's go
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 1: with the numbers. Why not? Why not? I mean we
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 1: I should. I feel like I should go with TCU
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 1: being in Texas, but USC of more difficult strength schedule,
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 1: the quarterback is playing foreshore, and when it comes to
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: head coaches, I trust Lincoln Riley more than I trust
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: Sunny Dike's call it a hunch, but if this thing's
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: under a touchdown, I can get USC minus five and
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 1: a half. I'll go with the favorite. Give me the
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 1: Trojans minus five and a half. Here, alright, we had
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 1: sixteen games to discuss, sixteen Bowl games to discuss for
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 1: this week December twenty fourth through December thirtieth. Let's recap it.
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 1: Let's see Houston, Houston, excuse me, Hawaii plus two and
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: a half, Central Michigan plus ten and a half, Minnesota
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half, UTSA minus eight and a half,
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 1: East Carolina plus seven and a half, Clemson minus three
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 1: and a half, Army minus eight and a half, BYU
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 1: minus four and a half, Miami plus four and a half,
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 1: San Diego State plus three and a half, Missouri minus
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 1: six and a half, LSU plus three, Georgia Southern minus
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 1: four and a half, Louisiana Tech minus eight and a half,
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 1: Tennessee minus two and a half, and USC minus five
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 1: and a half. That is a lot of favorites. What
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 1: could possibly go wrong? Right? Just ridiculous Bowl games these days,
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 1: much better for live betters. Just the way it goes,
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 1: you can tell pretty early which team wants to be there.
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: And which one doesn't. And once you figure that out,
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 1: once you see where the motivation lies. That's all she wrote.
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 1: Very rarely does it go the opposite direction in some
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 1: of these games. All right, of course, make sure you're
• 1:37:07
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• 1:37:10
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• 1:37:13
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• 1:37:16
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• 1:37:18
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• 1:37:21
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• 1:37:24
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• 1:37:26
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• 1:37:28
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• 1:37:30
  Speaker 1: or you can just go to bettingcfb dot com. It's
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• 1:37:39
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  Speaker 1: lot of you that have already signed up, and I
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 1: appreciate you. Thank you very much for helping out of
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: the show, for doing this thing, because I got to
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 1: spend a lot of time with it, a lot of time.
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 1: That's the way it goes. If you haven't already subscribed
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: to the channel, of course, like the video and jump
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: in the comment. Let me know your picks on these
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 1: if there's anything that I have missed, let me know
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: once you hear something, if you hear rumors, etc. I
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 1: would love to hear that as well. I just I
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 1: want to get some advanced notice on some of these
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 1: games as early as we can. Any kind of information
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: would be welcome. So yes, jump in the comments and
• 1:38:17
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• 1:38:20
  Speaker 1: good stuff. We do this every year. I've been doing this,
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 1: Winning Cures Everything has been around since twenty sixteen. The
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 1: podcast version, the YouTube started in twenty eighteen. We've been
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: at this for a while. This year I went fully independent,
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 1: had a blast, had an absolute blast. We will continue
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 1: on through the National Championship game, and then we're gonna
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 1: start talking about the sport in general. College football is
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 1: what we do. God I love this sport, all right.
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 1: With that said, you guys are fantastic. Take care of yourself,
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 1: take care of each other. God bless college football and
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 1: hopefully all of your tickets cash this week. Thanks for
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 1: listening to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a review, or comment.
• 1:39:02
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