Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Why The Stock Market Hasn't Crashed Yet? What Banks Don't Want You To Know... + Stock Market News 22 October 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Why The Stock Market Hasn't Crashed Yet? What Banks Don't Want You To Know... + Stock Market News 22 October 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

0:00
SPEAKER_00: Winston and Felix here alive.
0:02
SPEAKER_00: And look, the stock market is more overvalued right now than it was before the dot-com bubble last.
0:10
SPEAKER_00: Literally with every traditional metric, we should be in the middle of a massive crash, but instead we're watching the market hit new heights week after week after week.
0:20
SPEAKER_00: And the uncomfortable truth is that the banks and Wall Street don't really want you to understand.
0:28
SPEAKER_00: So stick around because I'm going to show you exactly when this party ends, how to position yourself before it does, and then we're going to do some nice live QA as well because we are live here and we might as well take advantage of that, right?
0:43
SPEAKER_00: Does that sound good?
0:44
SPEAKER_00: Does that sound like a plan?
0:45
SPEAKER_00: If it does sound like a plan, put a one in the chat.
0:47
SPEAKER_00: My name is Felix Prinummer former Invest and Bank.
0:49
SPEAKER_00: I'm also the founder of the GOAT Academy, where we've helped over 20,000 students so far decode how Wall Street really works.
0:57
SPEAKER_00: And what I'm about to share with you today is something most retail investors will honestly never understand until it's behind.
1:05
SPEAKER_00: You see, I've analyzed every bit of data, weeks of research, and the market right now is not normal.
1:14
SPEAKER_00: But it also isn't random.
1:15
SPEAKER_00: Thanks for the ones there, guys.
1:17
SPEAKER_00: There is a very specific reason the system is holding together.
1:21
SPEAKER_00: And once you see it, well, you kind of can't unsee it.
1:25
SPEAKER_00: Now, this isn't a doom and gloom video.
1:27
SPEAKER_00: I'm not telling you to buy, sell everything, hold cash or any of that.
1:30
SPEAKER_00: There is a much smarter way to play that.
1:32
SPEAKER_00: And that's of course thanks to Winston's research about that.
1:35
SPEAKER_00: Um if you want to learn that, if you want to hear that, you know what to do.
1:42
SPEAKER_00: Smash the um the you know what, and let me share my screen with you so you get a little more value out of the notes that I prepared for you so that this actually lands, right?
1:52
SPEAKER_00: So the valuation insanity is this.
1:57
SPEAKER_00: The Buffett indicator is screaming, like, I mean, look at some numbers here.
2:02
SPEAKER_00: That should probably terrify you.
2:04
SPEAKER_00: Um Buffett has a favorite metric for valuing the market.
2:07
SPEAKER_00: He calls it the probably the best single measure of a valuation stand at any given moment.
2:12
SPEAKER_00: And it basically is quite simple.
2:15
SPEAKER_00: It takes the total value of all US stocks and then it divides this by the size of the economy.
2:21
SPEAKER_00: So it's basically, can I have a pen that isn't black?
2:27
SPEAKER_00: So it's all stocks divided by GDP, which is just the US economy, right?
2:36
SPEAKER_00: Now, right now, that ratio sits at 221%, which is pretty extreme.
2:46
SPEAKER_00: Anything above 100 generally is meant to be overvalued.
2:49
SPEAKER_00: I think we have some leeway because US companies also sell overseas.
2:54
SPEAKER_00: You could argue that the economy should maybe take into account some of the you know banana republics out there, like you know, Europe.
3:00
SPEAKER_00: Um, but if you go back to 1999, we were at 175 to 212 percent, and everybody was saying, yeah, but this time is different.
3:12
SPEAKER_00: Because the internet is going to make us all billionaires overnight.
3:16
SPEAKER_00: So we hit 212.
3:17
SPEAKER_00: Now we're at 221.
3:19
SPEAKER_00: And after that bubble burst, the NASDAQ didn't just collapse, it actually went down 77%.
3:29
SPEAKER_00: Trillions of dollars literally gone.
3:31
SPEAKER_00: So we've blown past those dot-com bubble peak valuations, and the market keeps climbing.
3:37
SPEAKER_00: So, how does that actually work?
3:39
SPEAKER_00: Well, look, the total market cap of all US stocks.
3:44
SPEAKER_00: Do we have that data here?
3:46
SPEAKER_00: Let me let me put it up.
3:47
SPEAKER_00: So all US stocks are are something like 63 trillion, give or take a few hundred billion.
3:53
SPEAKER_00: The US economy, including all the services, everything that's produced there, is about 30 trillion.
4:00
SPEAKER_00: Right?
4:00
SPEAKER_00: So that's the USA, that's the stock market.
4:05
SPEAKER_00: Bit of a disconnect, right?
4:06
SPEAKER_00: Bit of a disconnect, right?
4:08
SPEAKER_00: Who's a little bit worried about that?
4:09
SPEAKER_00: Put a W in the chat if you're just uh a little bit worried about that.
4:17
SPEAKER_00: Anybody?
4:19
SPEAKER_00: Does it take into account the deflation of the dollar?
4:23
SPEAKER_00: I would argue yes.
4:24
SPEAKER_00: Yes, because it's the economy now, it's the stock market now.
4:27
SPEAKER_00: Inflation, deflation doesn't really form much problem.
4:30
SPEAKER_00: We're gonna get on to inflation, by the way, in a second, because that's really an important part to the strategy here.
4:36
SPEAKER_00: But basically, investors are essentially paying$2 for every$1 of actual economic output.
4:43
SPEAKER_00: Does that sound sensible?
4:45
SPEAKER_00: Right?
4:45
SPEAKER_00: And you can look at other things, you can look at PE ratios, they are even crazier, they're hovering literally at insane levels.
4:52
SPEAKER_00: But before you panic, I want to offer you one thing here today, um, which is if you actually want to take your investing game to a different level.
5:02
SPEAKER_00: And I saw some of you guys in the chat here saying, you you know, should you do this?
5:05
SPEAKER_00: Should you have your stop here?
5:06
SPEAKER_00: Should you sell this?
5:07
SPEAKER_00: Should you buy that?
5:08
SPEAKER_00: You were worried about the market last week, maybe you're worried right now.
5:11
SPEAKER_00: All of those are signs that you have a gap.
5:15
SPEAKER_00: What kind of gap have you got?
5:16
SPEAKER_00: You've got a skill gap.
5:18
SPEAKER_00: Maybe even a confidence gap.
5:20
SPEAKER_00: Now, the skill gap will probably fill the confidence gap.
5:23
SPEAKER_00: And it just means if you're really honest with yourself, you're not 100% sure what you're doing.
5:29
SPEAKER_00: Given that you spend probably eight to ten hours a day earning the money that you bring in, would it not make sense to learn how to make that money work for you so you could be freer?
5:42
SPEAKER_00: Well, if you're that sort of serious-minded individual, you can hop on a free call with my team at FelixFriends.org slash freedom.
5:49
SPEAKER_00: It's literally completely free.
5:50
SPEAKER_00: There is zero risk, there's zero pressure.
5:53
SPEAKER_00: I'll put the link in the chat for you as well.
5:55
SPEAKER_00: And you can have a chat with us to see if the kind of mentoring that we offer, which is mentoring with my mentors, uh live and one-on-one, who are all Wall Street guys, who are uh tired investment bankers, hedge fund guys, and so on.
6:10
SPEAKER_00: And you want to see what I'm looking at in terms of stocks every Sunday.
6:14
SPEAKER_00: So just before I buy them, I just bought one or two stocks just actually, then well, you know what to do.
6:20
SPEAKER_00: You could defeat expense of doctors freedom, you book yourself a risk-free call, like zero cost, but a 45-minute chat or so.
6:26
SPEAKER_00: And it gives you the chance to ask all the questions that are running around your head right now.
6:30
SPEAKER_00: Literally, all the questions running around your head right now, right?
6:33
SPEAKER_00: Okay, but let's just move on here quickly through the numbers and then we get into actionable part.
6:37
SPEAKER_00: Like, how can you actually benefit from this?
6:39
SPEAKER_00: Because every risk, every disaster means you can also benefit from it, right?
6:44
SPEAKER_00: That's just generally speaking how it works.
6:46
SPEAKER_00: So um, maybe we should skip ahead a little bit here.
6:51
SPEAKER_00: Um, let me just, yeah.
6:53
SPEAKER_00: So why is the market not crashing with these valuations?
6:59
SPEAKER_00: Well, I'd argue this is it.
7:02
SPEAKER_00: Government spending, the money flood.
7:06
SPEAKER_00: Valuations are insane, and history tells us that crashes happen at these levels.
7:12
SPEAKER_00: Why haven't they why haven't we got a crash yet?
7:15
SPEAKER_00: Well, unprecedented government spending.
7:19
SPEAKER_00: Let me walk you through the mechanism here.
7:21
SPEAKER_00: So the US government collects about five trillion dollars in tax revenue, right?
7:28
SPEAKER_00: Five trillion a year.
7:29
SPEAKER_00: And that's every year from your income taxes, your payroll taxes, corporate taxes, you know, the whole thing.
7:35
SPEAKER_00: And then it turns around and it spends that money on things like Social Security, Medicare, defense, and other programs.
7:43
SPEAKER_00: Now that money goes where?
7:49
SPEAKER_00: Well, back into the economy, right?
7:51
SPEAKER_00: So picture this grandma gets her social security check.
7:54
SPEAKER_00: What does she do?
7:55
SPEAKER_00: She buys groceries.
7:56
SPEAKER_00: Money goes to where?
7:57
SPEAKER_00: Walmart, Kroger.
8:01
SPEAKER_00: Medicare pays for her healthcare.
8:03
SPEAKER_00: Money goes into the hospital system, pharmaceutical companies.
8:06
SPEAKER_00: Defense spending goes to, you know, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Boeing, and so on, and government employees get paid, and then they go out and they buy, you know, iPhones.
8:15
SPEAKER_00: Money goes to Apple, right?
8:16
SPEAKER_00: So the money ends up back in the pockets of the biggest corporations that dominate the stock market.
8:23
SPEAKER_00: So it's a circular flow, essentially.
8:26
SPEAKER_00: But here is where it gets unusual.
8:30
SPEAKER_00: You might have seen these numbers before.
8:32
SPEAKER_00: The government isn't just spending the$5 trillion it collects, it's spending literally$1.8 trillion more than it collects.
8:41
SPEAKER_00: And that's the deficit, right?
8:43
SPEAKER_00: So it's something like$1.8 trillion.
8:47
SPEAKER_00: Um, last year and this year.
8:49
SPEAKER_00: So almost$2 trillion being pumped into the economy every single year.
8:55
SPEAKER_00: Where's that money coming from?
8:57
SPEAKER_00: But it's borrowed.
8:58
SPEAKER_00: It's sort of borrowed from the future, right?
9:00
SPEAKER_00: The interest payment for the debt, yeah, that's of course also something there.
9:03
SPEAKER_00: That's that's also true.
9:04
SPEAKER_00: Um, but still, that's about a trillion, right?
9:08
SPEAKER_00: So out of the, we're about about at close to 7 trillion spending here.
9:13
SPEAKER_00: About 1 trillion of that goes into interest now, which is insane.
9:17
SPEAKER_00: And you have things like the infrastructure bill.
9:20
SPEAKER_00: Where does that go?
9:21
SPEAKER_00: But it goes to construction companies, it goes to equipment manufacturers.
9:24
SPEAKER_00: You got you know the student loan forgiveness madness.
9:27
SPEAKER_00: Well, the consumer spent more, now the student loan forgiveness is gone, so now the money is going to flow back to companies like SoFi and other private private lenders.
9:36
SPEAKER_00: And then you get you know, disaster relief, Ukraine aid.
9:39
SPEAKER_00: Well, it all circles back.
9:41
SPEAKER_00: And this happens year after year after year, and it creates artificial demand, it inflates the earnings of companies, and it props up the stock prices.
9:57
SPEAKER_00: So, why is it happening?
9:58
SPEAKER_00: Well, why don't we just balance the budget?
10:02
SPEAKER_00: Wouldn't that be the most sensible thing to do?
10:04
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
10:05
SPEAKER_00: The US basically controls the world economy.
10:08
SPEAKER_00: They're the industrial leader since World War II, they're the tech leader, they're the financial leader, right?
10:12
SPEAKER_00: Any Americans in the room?
10:14
SPEAKER_00: Put a USA in the chat there.
10:17
SPEAKER_00: If you want protection, you play by US rules.
10:20
SPEAKER_00: If you want access to global finance, global banking, Swift network, the biggest stock market, you want an IPO, well, you are nice with the US.
10:31
SPEAKER_00: Now, now there are more developing nations, the BRICS nations and so on.
10:35
SPEAKER_00: They're building their own systems, their own tech.
10:38
SPEAKER_00: They want to have an alternative to US dominance there.
10:41
SPEAKER_00: One or two Americans in the room, yeah, and you know, you are living in the greatest economy of the world.
10:47
SPEAKER_00: Now that threatens the US position at the top.
10:50
SPEAKER_00: So what's the strategy?
10:53
SPEAKER_00: Spend.
10:54
SPEAKER_00: Spend whatever it takes to maintain tech superiority, military superiority, economic superiority, even if it means running massive deficit, even if it means borrowing from future generations.
11:08
SPEAKER_00: The calculation is basically simple.
11:11
SPEAKER_00: Staying on top of the world is worth the debt.
11:15
SPEAKER_00: And as long as that's the plan and the priority, the money printer keeps running in the stock market.
11:22
SPEAKER_00: Well, guess what?
11:22
SPEAKER_00: It stays inflated.
11:24
SPEAKER_00: So, how do you benefit from that and how do you protect yourself from that?
11:30
SPEAKER_00: Well, how is this actually financed?
11:36
SPEAKER_00: It's basically a hidden tax.
11:38
SPEAKER_00: You or my friends who are writing USA in the chat there, you are paying for it.
11:43
SPEAKER_00: How are you paying for it?
11:44
SPEAKER_00: Well, this is probably the part the government involved doesn't really want you to understand, and maybe our channel gets shut down from time to time.
11:52
SPEAKER_00: Um what they do is it devalues the dollar.
11:57
SPEAKER_00: Imagine this.
11:58
SPEAKER_00: You live on an island, there are 10 people, and there are 10 coins, right?
12:04
SPEAKER_00: So 10 coins and 10 very well-drawn people, artists and residents, you can tell, right?
12:11
SPEAKER_00: So what happens if you change the 10 coins to 20 coins?
12:19
SPEAKER_00: Let's say they're gold coins.
12:21
SPEAKER_00: So each coin is very valuable because there are only 10 of them initially, and then what happens?
12:27
SPEAKER_00: Well, somebody shows up and dumps an extra 10 gold coins on the island.
12:31
SPEAKER_00: Suddenly there are 20 coins.
12:33
SPEAKER_00: So, what happens to the value of each coin?
12:36
SPEAKER_00: Tell me what happens?
12:38
SPEAKER_00: What happens?
12:38
SPEAKER_00: Put it in the chat.
12:44
SPEAKER_00: Well, you're right.
12:46
SPEAKER_00: It cuts the value of each coin in half.
12:51
SPEAKER_00: And that's exactly what happens with what the US government is doing to you.
12:56
SPEAKER_00: So this deficit that nobody cares about does something very, very real.
13:00
SPEAKER_00: If you go back to the 1980s, the dollar was worth a hundred.
13:06
SPEAKER_00: You know, I say a hundred dollars then was worth a hundred dollars.
13:09
SPEAKER_00: This was in 1980.
13:11
SPEAKER_00: Who was president of 1980?
13:13
SPEAKER_00: One of the um Bush seniors or something?
13:16
SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
13:17
SPEAKER_00: You tell me.
13:19
SPEAKER_00: What happens right now is well, right now that same dollar is worth about$25.
13:28
SPEAKER_00: That's that same hundred dollars.
13:29
SPEAKER_00: So the$100 have lost 75% of their value just since 1980.
13:37
SPEAKER_00: That's kind of insane, right?
13:39
SPEAKER_00: Isn't that kind of insane?
13:41
SPEAKER_00: Well, it's the hidden engine that keeps the stock market alive.
13:44
SPEAKER_00: So investors aren't just betting on companies being more productive of innovative, they're just betting on the dollar continuing to lose value.
13:52
SPEAKER_00: So, what happens is work from, say, say you're Apple, you know, your company, you sell an iPhone, and you sell that iPhone today for you know$1,000.
14:05
SPEAKER_00: Say you make$200 profit on that.
14:08
SPEAKER_00: I don't know what the margin is on Apple, probably a little higher.
14:11
SPEAKER_00: That's your profit, right?
14:12
SPEAKER_00: $200.
14:13
SPEAKER_00: But if inflation and dollar devaluation continue, the next year the same iPhone, well, what are you gonna do?
14:20
SPEAKER_00: That iPhone price is gonna go up.
14:22
SPEAKER_00: You're gonna sell it for$1,100, right?
14:25
SPEAKER_00: Your costs go up a bit, but not as much as price.
14:28
SPEAKER_00: So, what happens now?
14:30
SPEAKER_00: You've increased your profit from$200 to$250.
14:36
SPEAKER_00: You still with me on that?
14:38
SPEAKER_00: Big companies like this, they like inflation.
14:43
SPEAKER_00: Why?
14:43
SPEAKER_00: Because they can be more profitable.
14:45
SPEAKER_00: There was one thing during the whole sort of post-COVID inflation, Pepsi.
14:51
SPEAKER_00: What do they do?
14:52
SPEAKER_00: They raised their prices by 17%.
14:56
SPEAKER_00: And they said, oh, it's because of inflation.
14:58
SPEAKER_00: No, there wasn't no 17% inflation, they just improved their profits.
15:02
SPEAKER_00: Their profits go up and the consumer sucks it up.
15:07
SPEAKER_00: And that's why today's insane valuations can be somewhat justified because they're betting that tomorrow's profits will be much, much higher because of inflation.
15:19
SPEAKER_00: So is that sinking in?
15:20
SPEAKER_00: Does that make some sense to you?
15:22
SPEAKER_00: Does that make some sense?
15:23
SPEAKER_00: Let me know.
15:24
SPEAKER_00: Put an S in the chat there if this might this make some sense to you.
15:26
SPEAKER_00: And we're going to take some questions on this in just a second.
15:29
SPEAKER_00: Now, what does it do?
15:33
SPEAKER_00: Well, it creates winners and losers.
15:36
SPEAKER_00: And you have to decide which one you want to be.
15:40
SPEAKER_00: And it isn't fair because most of the losers they don't understand to do anything about it, and they're probably not in a position to do anything about it.
15:47
SPEAKER_00: Some of them aren't, but you probably are.
15:50
SPEAKER_00: That's the good news.
15:51
SPEAKER_00: Because the money flows from the bottom 90% to the top 90%.
15:58
SPEAKER_00: That's what happens.
15:59
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
16:00
SPEAKER_00: Okay, thanks for the Sister.
16:03
SPEAKER_00: Who owns the majority of stocks in America?
16:06
SPEAKER_00: The top percent, 10% households.
16:08
SPEAKER_00: The bottom 10 90%, they own almost nothing at all.
16:12
SPEAKER_00: They own a bit of cash and they live paycheck to paycheck.
16:17
SPEAKER_00: So when the stocks go up because of this crazy devaluation of the dollar, well, the rich get richer.
16:24
SPEAKER_00: Their assets appreciate, their net worth grows, and the 90%, well, they don't own any stocks.
16:31
SPEAKER_00: They own the cash that's losing value.
16:33
SPEAKER_00: Their wages drop because wages don't keep up with inflation.
16:38
SPEAKER_00: It's not just the groceries, it's the rent, it's the gas, it's the travel, it's everything.
16:42
SPEAKER_00: So Wall Street celebrates new market highs like we are doing right now.
16:48
SPEAKER_00: Your regular American will get crushed quietly.
16:51
SPEAKER_00: Why quietly?
16:52
SPEAKER_00: Because it doesn't get reported.
16:55
SPEAKER_00: So the gap between rich and poor stretches, every single year.
17:00
SPEAKER_00: Can you stop it?
17:01
SPEAKER_00: No.
17:02
SPEAKER_00: You can't.
17:04
SPEAKER_00: Taxation doesn't work, strike communism doesn't work.
17:07
SPEAKER_00: There literally isn't a redistribution method that actually works because the system will just send the money back to the top 10%.
17:14
SPEAKER_00: And that maybe is a harsh reality.
17:17
SPEAKER_00: Maybe you disagree with that.
17:19
SPEAKER_00: Let me know in the chat.
17:20
SPEAKER_00: But that's the way I see it.
17:22
SPEAKER_00: So it's simply a question of how many stocks do you earn?
17:28
SPEAKER_00: Because if the system is designed to benefit the asset owners, while everybody else gets screwed royally, well, you only only have one choice.
17:38
SPEAKER_00: You become one of these guys, right?
17:43
SPEAKER_00: Who do you want to be?
17:43
SPEAKER_00: Do you want to be the top 10%?
17:45
SPEAKER_00: Or do you want to be the bottom 90% 90% and say it's unfair?
17:49
SPEAKER_00: Harsh choice, but it's the reality.
17:52
SPEAKER_00: And then you've got to look out, well, what's the big money doing?
17:54
SPEAKER_00: What's the smart money doing?
17:56
SPEAKER_00: This guy here, right?
17:57
SPEAKER_00: Who thinks Warren Buffett is smart?
18:00
SPEAKER_00: Is he smart?
18:02
SPEAKER_00: Put smart on the chat.
18:07
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
18:08
SPEAKER_00: I think we generally agree that this guy is pretty smart.
18:11
SPEAKER_00: So what's he doing?
18:12
SPEAKER_00: Well, his company, Berkshire Hathaway, is sitting on$350 billion in cash.
18:21
SPEAKER_00: Well, that's what mainstream media likes you to think.
18:24
SPEAKER_00: Now, that of course is nonsense.
18:27
SPEAKER_00: They don't sit on any cash at all.
18:30
SPEAKER_00: Yes, it's a lot of money.
18:31
SPEAKER_00: It isn't in cash, it is in government bonds.
18:37
SPEAKER_00: And now those government bonds earn them probably call it 5% interest, risk-free.
18:47
SPEAKER_00: But on top of that, what's happening right now?
18:50
SPEAKER_00: What's happening with interest rates?
18:52
SPEAKER_00: Anyone know?
18:54
SPEAKER_00: Interest rates, let me just move this to the side a bit.
18:58
SPEAKER_00: When rates fall, what happens to the value of bonds?
19:04
SPEAKER_00: It's not very um intuitive, but they go up.
19:08
SPEAKER_00: So they're not just gonna make the 5%, they might actually make an extra 20% on the value of those bonds, depending on how long they are.
19:19
SPEAKER_00: So Buffett is actually fully invested.
19:23
SPEAKER_00: He's just not fully invested in stocks.
19:27
SPEAKER_00: He's been selling stocks.
19:29
SPEAKER_00: Big positions in Apple, Bank of America, he's been piling up not cash, that's wrong.
19:34
SPEAKER_00: Next time you see that in mainstream media, just point to it and scream, that's wrong.
19:38
SPEAKER_00: You're lying to us.
19:42
SPEAKER_00: And there's a conspiracy theory to that, too.
19:44
SPEAKER_00: Banks like it when you hold cash because they can make money without money rather than you, right?
19:48
SPEAKER_00: Now, what's he doing?
19:50
SPEAKER_00: Well, he's basically preparing for a correction.
19:53
SPEAKER_00: He knows when the correction comes, it's probably brutal.
19:56
SPEAKER_00: And he's looking to buy some incredible assets at massive discounts, just like he did after 2008, just like he did after the dot-com crash and so on.
20:05
SPEAKER_00: So Buffett isn't out there telling people to sell.
20:09
SPEAKER_00: He's just quietly preparing.
20:11
SPEAKER_00: He's got his war chest, he's waiting for the inevitable moment when valuations return to a lower level.
20:17
SPEAKER_00: And that's gonna happen.
20:19
SPEAKER_00: And quite frankly, he isn't alone.
20:20
SPEAKER_00: Across Wall Street seeing a lot of very similar patterns.
20:24
SPEAKER_00: You see hedge funds, you see they're reducing their stock exposure, you see private equity raising cash because they're waiting for something to be cheaper.
20:37
SPEAKER_00: You see institution adding more protection, more hedges.
20:43
SPEAKER_00: So, what does that mean for you?
20:45
SPEAKER_00: Look, they're not predicting the exact date of a crash.
20:49
SPEAKER_00: Nobody can.
20:50
SPEAKER_00: It's ludicrous to say you can.
20:52
SPEAKER_00: But they're recognizing that the risk reward is well, it's getting a little dodgy.
20:56
SPEAKER_00: And the smart money is preparing at least some of their portfolio to look for the next big opportunities.
21:05
SPEAKER_00: Now, am I telling you that you should be in cash?
21:07
SPEAKER_00: What do you think?
21:08
SPEAKER_00: Who thinks I'm telling you to be in cash?
21:11
SPEAKER_00: Anybody?
21:23
SPEAKER_00: Well, I hope you understand that I'm not.
21:25
SPEAKER_00: Quite the opposite.
21:30
SPEAKER_00: Now, okay, good, good.
21:36
SPEAKER_00: So you have two options.
21:38
SPEAKER_00: If you stay in cash, you are guaranteed to lose money.
21:42
SPEAKER_00: 100% done deal.
21:44
SPEAKER_00: Why?
21:45
SPEAKER_00: Because there is inflation, they're gonna print more money, right?
21:48
SPEAKER_00: And they might do that through money printing, through stable coins, all sorts of shenanigans, uh, but just basically just outsourcing the money printing to the banks.
21:56
SPEAKER_00: So you have two options.
21:58
SPEAKER_00: You stay in cash, you're definitely gonna lose.
22:01
SPEAKER_00: You're guaranteed to lose money, right?
22:04
SPEAKER_00: Every year that say$100,000 in your saving account, well, you're gonna lose.
22:10
SPEAKER_00: I mean, the government tells you it's three to five percent.
22:12
SPEAKER_00: I think it's a lot more than that.
22:13
SPEAKER_00: I think I think it's probably closer to eight to ten percent a year because they manipulate the the data.
22:19
SPEAKER_00: And you stay invested, it's your second option.
22:22
SPEAKER_00: But now you're feeling a bit queasy about this market, right?
22:25
SPEAKER_00: Look, when valuations are this extreme, we could get a big drawdown.
22:32
SPEAKER_00: But I think the market's gonna go a lot higher.
22:36
SPEAKER_00: So you are in this sort of trap.
22:38
SPEAKER_00: Which one which way do I go?
22:40
SPEAKER_00: Well, there is a way you can actually deal with this.
22:43
SPEAKER_00: I am almost fully invested right now.
22:46
SPEAKER_00: Well, because I bought a bunch of stuff today.
22:48
SPEAKER_00: Um, I buy stuff every week, really.
22:51
SPEAKER_00: And what are we doing right now?
22:54
SPEAKER_00: We're more selective than ever.
22:57
SPEAKER_00: I'm not buying most of the stuff in the headlines.
23:00
SPEAKER_00: Like one of the things I bought today was um I bought more Victoria's Secret via CO ticker.
23:08
SPEAKER_00: Not exactly the latest AI stock, right?
23:11
SPEAKER_00: Um, what else should I buy today?
23:14
SPEAKER_00: I bought some SD Lauder today.
23:16
SPEAKER_00: Again, not exactly the latest AI stock, right?
23:19
SPEAKER_00: I'm buying, well, I have been buying gold stocks, right?
23:21
SPEAKER_00: We've been looking at pot stocks, for lack of a better word.
23:28
SPEAKER_00: Um not the last semiconductors, quite frankly.
23:32
SPEAKER_00: We've been looking at biotech, which has had some really beautiful gains.
23:36
SPEAKER_00: We've been looking at you know, uranium, we've been looking at rare earths, there have been some really, really nice plays here the last few months.
23:43
SPEAKER_00: But we're not just loading up blindly on NVIDIA.
23:48
SPEAKER_00: So if you understand that strategy and you diversify intelligently and smartly, and you follow the money, follow the money, I think we're gonna have a beautiful end to the year.
24:01
SPEAKER_00: I think we're gonna have a beautiful 2026.
24:04
SPEAKER_00: But at some point, there will be disappointment around AI earnings, Nvidia's or Broadcoms or Oracle or something.
24:14
SPEAKER_00: We're already starting to see that.
24:15
SPEAKER_00: When that comes in, you might see a massive correction, a massive pull-in, pullback.
24:20
SPEAKER_00: So, how do you deal with that?
24:21
SPEAKER_00: Well, you've got to learn how to manage your risk.
24:24
SPEAKER_00: And you've got to learn how to automate that.
24:26
SPEAKER_00: We don't run a whole live session on that this morning, actually.
24:28
SPEAKER_00: Was it no, was it this morning?
24:30
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, my time was this morning.
24:31
SPEAKER_00: It was like probably your last night.
24:34
SPEAKER_00: And what I'm saying to you here is basically prepare yourself.
24:40
SPEAKER_00: When the sun shines, when the market is beautiful, when everybody's had a tremendous year, and maybe even two or three tremendous years, and I very much wish that you have, you think you're a genius.
24:51
SPEAKER_00: I always say to my students, and they write to me a lot, and they say I'm up, you know, X percent and I made 70% or 100%, whatever.
24:58
SPEAKER_00: And what's my reply always?
24:59
SPEAKER_00: It's always, congratulations.
25:02
SPEAKER_00: You should take credit for that.
25:04
SPEAKER_00: And secondly, this is the highest risk moment.
25:08
SPEAKER_00: Overconfidence is going to creep in.
25:10
SPEAKER_00: And unless you really, really knuckle down on your risk management, you're gonna give it all back.
25:16
SPEAKER_00: Because it's happened to me many times, and I learned from it.
25:19
SPEAKER_00: I did it quite a few times, and I just thought, yeah, but I'm smarter, I'm better, I, you know, this time is different, and I just took more and more and more risk.
25:27
SPEAKER_00: Don't do that.
25:28
SPEAKER_00: The better you do, the more you want to look at the risk you're taking, the more you want to structure that, automate that.
25:35
SPEAKER_00: You don't want to knuckle down on the same theme, the same sector again and again and again.
25:40
SPEAKER_00: Because there is one thing in the market that drives a lot of this, and it's called luck.
25:46
SPEAKER_00: And some people don't like the word because they think there's something negative about it because it means they don't deserve it.
25:50
SPEAKER_00: No, you deserve luck.
25:52
SPEAKER_00: But a lot of the time we're lucky, right?
25:54
SPEAKER_00: Now, we can improve our likelihood of being lucky by showing up and by following the rules and by making sure we have no big losses and by letting our winners run and and and and following essentially Wall Street's rules, which is what we teach, but there's still be an element of luck.
26:09
SPEAKER_00: It's pretty hard to lose money in a year where everything is up, you know, 20% or 25% or something, right?
26:15
SPEAKER_00: Pretty hard.
26:17
SPEAKER_00: But it's much harder to keep that money because you're gonna take more and more and more risk.
26:24
SPEAKER_00: So, what would I say to you?
26:25
SPEAKER_00: Should you diversify internationally?
26:27
SPEAKER_00: Should you buy real estate?
26:28
SPEAKER_00: Look, there's a tons of stuff you can do, but there is a lot, there's a much easier thing within the stock market.
26:34
SPEAKER_00: You don't have to build a bond portfolio or something crazy.
26:38
SPEAKER_00: You can literally just be a bit smarter about what you're in, right?
26:42
SPEAKER_00: So, how do we know the crash is coming?
26:46
SPEAKER_00: How do we know when it's coming?
26:49
SPEAKER_00: Well, nobody knows when it's coming.
26:51
SPEAKER_00: Nobody knows exactly when it's coming.
26:53
SPEAKER_00: You can look, however, on the chart and you can avoid the moments when the risk kicks in.
26:58
SPEAKER_00: And that's what we do, right?
27:00
SPEAKER_00: So there are certain triggers we can look at that that have more or less impact on the market.
27:06
SPEAKER_00: And I'm gonna take a screenshot of this if you want.
27:08
SPEAKER_00: We're gonna get Fed rate cuts, more likely.
27:12
SPEAKER_00: Hikes or cuts, both have a moderate impact on the market.
27:16
SPEAKER_00: Is the US gonna cut its spending?
27:20
SPEAKER_00: It's a bit like um, you know, politicians they want to give away the sweets.
27:25
SPEAKER_00: It makes them popular.
27:26
SPEAKER_00: They don't really care, they're mostly quite old.
27:29
SPEAKER_00: Right?
27:30
SPEAKER_00: Are we gonna get a real recession?
27:32
SPEAKER_00: Well, it's pretty hard to get a real recession when the government is spending seven trillion dollars.
27:37
SPEAKER_00: So I also don't think that's gonna happen.
27:39
SPEAKER_00: Black swan events, yeah, that's always a possibility.
27:42
SPEAKER_00: Some sort of shock, some financial crisis, some unexpected disaster.
27:46
SPEAKER_00: You know, you wake up in the morning and Bank of America has gone broke, or you know, something like that.
27:50
SPEAKER_00: Uh or uh the internet's down, or you know, something.
27:54
SPEAKER_00: I mean, did you notice that yesterday, last two days?
27:57
SPEAKER_00: Um Amazon's Web Services, literally the biggest cloud computing platform in the world, had an outage for a lot of their service, right?
28:05
SPEAKER_00: A lot of things were down.
28:07
SPEAKER_00: Zoom was down, some of our communities were down for a little while.
28:12
SPEAKER_00: But really, what happens is something along this line happens that shakes confidence.
28:17
SPEAKER_00: I think it's more likely something to do with AI spending, where somebody cancels their$300 billion order because it was always made up anyway.
28:26
SPEAKER_00: And you then lose confidence.
28:30
SPEAKER_00: And what happens then is well, the dip buyers are gone, everyone runs for the hilts, and suddenly you're down pretty important pretty significantly.
28:38
SPEAKER_00: And what you need to understand in that moment is that that's actually opportunity.
28:44
SPEAKER_00: Look at some of these data points.
28:46
SPEAKER_00: 2008-2009, the SP fell 57%.
28:51
SPEAKER_00: Over the next 10 years, what happened?
28:54
SPEAKER_00: We went up 400%.
28:57
SPEAKER_00: COVID, we dropped 35%.
29:01
SPEAKER_00: Pretty nice run-up since then.
29:03
SPEAKER_00: But if you go back a little further, even dot-com crash, we dropped 77%.
29:11
SPEAKER_00: But what did we get?
29:12
SPEAKER_00: Well, we got Amazon, we got Apple, right?
29:15
SPEAKER_00: We got some really brilliant businesses that came out of that.
29:18
SPEAKER_00: If you'd invested those, you would have made tens of thousands of percent.
29:21
SPEAKER_00: So what's my recommendation?
29:24
SPEAKER_00: Look, research, understand, hone your skills.
29:29
SPEAKER_00: Investing is a set of skills.
29:31
SPEAKER_00: It is not finding the latest treasure, it is a set of skills which allow you to find 10, 20, 30 opportunities any given day.
29:41
SPEAKER_00: Like I find more stocks that I want to buy than I could ever, ever, ever buy.
29:47
SPEAKER_00: Make sure the emotional part is taken out.
29:50
SPEAKER_00: And you can do that through automation.
29:51
SPEAKER_00: Again, something we teach.
29:53
SPEAKER_00: And learn.
29:55
SPEAKER_00: That's really the biggest thing you can do.
29:57
SPEAKER_00: When the market's doing really well, you have an incentive to.
30:00
SPEAKER_00: Learn because you're now enjoying it.
30:02
SPEAKER_00: Because when the market drops, you stop enjoying it and you don't want to learn anymore, right?
30:06
SPEAKER_00: Just sort of the weird way of looking at it, but it's actually true.
30:10
SPEAKER_00: So, final takeaways.
30:12
SPEAKER_00: And let me take some questions on this, my friends.
30:14
SPEAKER_00: We're insanely overvalued right now.
30:17
SPEAKER_00: My feeling is we're going to go much higher, but that's just a feeling.
30:20
SPEAKER_00: I haven't got a crystal ball because the government's spending so much money.
30:24
SPEAKER_00: We definitely have massive inflation.
30:26
SPEAKER_00: So if you're not invested, you will definitely lose.
30:30
SPEAKER_00: And the smart money, everyone says they're in cash.
30:33
SPEAKER_00: They're not actually in cash, they're in bonds because they understand the bond market.
30:38
SPEAKER_00: And all I'd say to you is manage the risk, use the rallies to maybe pair back some of those risks from some of those stocks that look tired, because there are plenty of stocks out there looking right tired right now.
30:50
SPEAKER_00: But there are still some really, really beautiful opportunities from some stocks that haven't necessarily done all that much.
30:55
SPEAKER_00: I'll show you one or two in a second.
30:57
SPEAKER_00: And if you want to just take this to another level, be serious about this, and actually sit down with some investing bankers who happen to be my mentors and learn rules.
31:08
SPEAKER_00: Right.
31:08
SPEAKER_00: And yes, you also get to see all the stocks I look at every week.