Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / FINAL Predictions and Market Analysis Before 2026 Midterms

Transcript

FINAL Predictions and Market Analysis Before 2026 Midterms · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Ladies and gentlemen,
• 0:01
  you've made it.
• 0:02
  It is the last day before the midterms,
• 0:05
  and I've got some finalized predictions to share on the Senate,
• 0:07
  the gubernatorial races,
• 0:08
  the House races,
• 0:09
  all that stuff.
• 0:10
  I'll also tell you about a live,
• 0:12
  uh,
• 0:12
  thing we're gonna be doing tomorrow night to walk
• 0:14
  you through the entire election in real time.
• 0:16
  We have a new tool.
• 0:18
  I've created for you to follow it in real time
• 0:20
  and get better insight than you're gonna get from,
• 0:22
  you know,
• 0:22
  some of the networks.
• 0:23
  Uh,
• 0:23
  and of course,
• 0:24
  if you wanna secure some last-minute profits,
• 0:26
  we're here for you as well.
• 0:27
  All of that and more coming up on the final
• 0:31
  show
• 0:31
  of Predictable with Stu before the midterms.
• 0:35
  Join us at predictableshow.com.
• 0:52
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:55
  We are 1 day away
• 0:57
  from the midterm elections.
• 0:59
  There's so much.
• 1:00
  This is such an interesting thing because it's not only
• 1:03
  about prediction markets and whether you can be profitable,
• 1:05
  or whether you can predict these things accurately,
• 1:07
  whether your Senate Fantasy.com team is doing well.
• 1:10
  It's a lot more than that because of course
• 1:11
  it's the future of our country and these things
• 1:13
  mean a lot.
• 1:14
  They mean a lot to me,
• 1:15
  they mean a lot to you.
• 1:16
  And one thing that we try to do on this show,
• 1:18
  which is very difficult for not only everyone in the audience,
• 1:21
  but also the host,
• 1:22
  is to try
• 1:23
  to do our best
• 1:25
  to take our heart out of our investing,
• 1:28
  right?
• 1:28
  We want to look toward these prediction markets and what we can do with elections,
• 1:33
  and take our rooting interests out of it.
• 1:34
  We root for the world that we want,
• 1:36
  we invest in the world that we have.
• 1:38
  And that's what we do here on Predictable with Stu.
• 1:40
  One day till the midterm elections.
• 1:42
  Let me just tell you quickly.
• 1:43
  What we're gonna be doing on election night.
• 1:45
  Cause you need to know this.
• 1:47
  We're gonna be talking for a very long time.
• 1:49
  I'm gonna be covering all this stuff for you.
• 1:50
  We've got coverage on Blaze TV.
• 1:52
  I'll be part of that coverage.
• 1:53
  We've got coverage on PredictableShow.com,
• 1:55
  which I'll be for most of the night.
• 1:57
  I,
• 1:57
  you know,
• 1:57
  I'll occasionally have to dip out for different things.
• 1:59
  I'm dipping out for uh a Megyn Kelly
• 2:01
  hit as well during the day.
• 2:02
  Uh,
• 2:02
  but generally speaking,
• 2:03
  we will have coverage for you
• 2:05
  from
• 2:05
  6:45
• 2:07
  p.m. Eastern time
• 2:09
  is when we start,
• 2:09
  6:45 p.m. Eastern Time.
• 2:11
  That'll give us a few minutes.
• 2:12
  To
• 2:13
  kind of preview,
• 2:14
  we'll do a little bit.
• 2:14
  Indiana and Kentucky are the first two states that close.
• 2:16
  We'll have maybe a little bit on that.
• 2:18
  But generally speaking,
• 2:19
  a little bit of time to preview all the big closing states at 7 o'clock,
• 2:23
  and then we'll take it from that
• 2:25
  as long as we can go and as long as there's interesting stuff to talk about.
• 2:28
  Now,
• 2:28
  we're not gonna know the
• 2:30
  Uh,
• 2:30
  final vote count in Alaska
• 2:32
  for like a month.
• 2:33
  So,
• 2:34
  we're not gonna be on for a straight month,
• 2:35
  but we're gonna do as best that we can,
• 2:37
  certainly until we can try to figure out control if that's possible,
• 2:40
  of the Senate and the House.
• 2:41
  That's gonna be a big part of our evening.
• 2:44
  Um,
• 2:44
  so join us there at YouTube.com/atpredictableshow,
• 2:47
  predictableshow.com.
• 2:49
  Lots of social media,
• 2:50
  uh,
• 2:50
  opportunities there,
• 2:51
  you know,
• 2:51
  I think we're gonna be on X,
• 2:52
  we'll be on,
• 2:53
  uh,
• 2:53
  probably Facebook and all the others.
• 2:55
  So,
• 2:56
  you can check us out in those places.
• 2:57
  We would love to have you hanging out as long as you possibly can.
• 3:00
  One of the things that we're going to do.
• 3:03
  Is
• 3:04
  give you,
• 3:05
  uh,
• 3:05
  opportunities and try to walk you through trading election night.
• 3:09
  Trading election night's a little bit different than prediction markets,
• 3:11
  generally speaking,
• 3:12
  because when you think about,
• 3:13
  uh,
• 3:14
  you're trying to predict who's gonna win the Senate,
• 3:15
  who's gonna win the House,
• 3:17
  if you're doing that in,
• 3:17
  you know,
• 3:18
  July.
• 3:19
  You're looking at the,
• 3:20
  the,
• 3:20
  the votes,
• 3:21
  you're looking at what you know about elections,
• 3:22
  you're trying to say,
• 3:23
  project a few months ahead of time,
• 3:25
  and then you're holding your position for a long time.
• 3:26
  Totally different than what you're doing on election night.
• 3:29
  Election night,
• 3:29
  the vote counts are coming out,
• 3:30
  they're moving.
• 3:31
  It's intense.
• 3:32
  Things are going up and down.
• 3:33
  You're trying to figure out which side of this should I be on.
• 3:35
  All that's really hard
• 3:37
  to figure out.
• 3:38
  I've done it for a long time.
• 3:40
  I still make mistakes to this day,
• 3:42
  and every year I try to come up with
• 3:43
  a better way of understanding what's about to happen.
• 3:47
  Because
• 3:47
  in a way,
• 3:48
  prediction markets aren't necessarily about giving predictions as the output.
• 3:54
  when you're on a prediction market and you're trading it,
• 3:56
  you're making a prediction.
• 3:57
  So prediction markets,
• 3:58
  really good name for them.
• 3:59
  What they give out is a number that,
• 4:02
  and we've shown this in academic studies for,
• 4:04
  you know,
• 4:04
  um,
• 4:05
  you know,
• 4:05
  that,
• 4:06
  that have spanned decades,
• 4:07
  honestly.
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  That they are the best predictive tool that we have to look at these events.
• 4:12
  They're not always perfect,
• 4:13
  you don't get everything right.
• 4:15
  We here at Predictable show,
• 4:16
  very excited that we don't get everything right in prediction markets cause
• 4:19
  there would be no opportunities to make money if they did.
• 4:21
  There are some uh ups and downs.
• 4:22
  You try to look for those opportunities where things are mispriced
• 4:25
  as part of the game.
• 4:26
  But,
• 4:27
  in addition to that,
• 4:29
  it is important to understand that what essentially prediction markets are doing.
• 4:33
  It's not necessarily attempting to predict everything perfectly,
• 4:36
  that does happen a lot of times,
• 4:38
  but
• 4:39
  they're trying to distill
• 4:41
  all of human knowledge.
• 4:43
  Everybody who has a thought,
• 4:45
  who has an opinion,
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  who has information,
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  who's trying to understand things in a better way,
• 4:49
  who's done the research,
• 4:50
  is putting their money where their mouth is to come to some number,
• 4:53
  and that is why they're so effective,
• 4:56
  when it comes to prediction,
• 4:58
  because
• 4:58
  it's everybody.
• 4:59
  It's groupthink
• 5:01
  in a good way.
• 5:02
  It is,
• 5:02
  uh,
• 5:02
  the,
• 5:02
  the,
• 5:03
  the,
• 5:03
  the wisdom of crowds.
• 5:04
  This is something that has been shown and,
• 5:06
  you know,
• 5:07
  for a very long time to be successful,
• 5:09
  and now
• 5:10
  they're kind of at their,
• 5:11
  their peak.
• 5:11
  They're coming into your world in a different way.
• 5:14
  So,
• 5:15
  I think it's worth talking about these maybe
• 5:17
  in context of these prediction markets as,
• 5:18
  as we do on this show.
• 5:21
  I'll give you a couple of headlines from today,
• 5:23
  because if you happen to be a Republican,
• 5:25
  and if you happen to be a conservative,
• 5:26
  which,
• 5:26
  you know,
• 5:26
  many of you are.
• 5:27
  Uh,
• 5:28
  you've heard some bad news.
• 5:30
  And let me give you a little taste as to what we've heard over the past,
• 5:33
  uh,
• 5:33
  24 to 48 hours.
• 5:34
  I will say the news has not been good.
• 5:36
  That's a,
• 5:37
  that's a,
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  and this might,
• 5:38
  this might illustrate that,
• 5:39
  this headline from
• 5:41
  the argument,
• 5:42
  Republicans see a light at the end of the tunnel.
• 5:44
  It's a train.
• 5:46
  That,
• 5:46
  that's not a good headline,
• 5:48
  uh,
• 5:48
  for your electoral hopes.
• 5:49
  Now,
• 5:49
  of course,
• 5:50
  they can be wrong,
• 5:51
  polls can be wrong,
• 5:52
  people's opinions can be wrong,
• 5:53
  prediction markets can be wrong.
• 5:55
  The question is what's really gonna happen.
• 5:57
  Let me give you the latest polling from New York Times Sienna.
• 6:01
  They are very pessimistic on Republican chances.
• 6:04
  Final polls show a blue surge.
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  Can we trust them?
• 6:06
  This comes from Nate Cohn.
• 6:08
  Now,
• 6:08
  I'll give you some details on how
• 6:10
  the New York Times Sienna polls have done in the past.
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  It's important context,
• 6:13
  but this is what they're showing,
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  and some of this is.
• 6:16
  Really bonker stuff,
• 6:17
  like outlier stuff we have not seen
• 6:19
  this entire election cycle,
• 6:21
  including most prominently,
• 6:22
  Michigan.
• 6:23
  El Sayed with an 11 point lead over Mike Rogers,
• 6:27
  uh,
• 6:28
  53 to 42
• 6:30
  in their last poll on that race.
• 6:32
  Texas shows a Tallarico lead,
• 6:34
  50 to 43 over Paxton.
• 6:37
  Maine shows a Jackson lead.
• 6:39
  51-45
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  over Collins.
• 6:43
  Ohio shows a Sherrod Brown lead.
• 6:45
  You're hearing a,
• 6:46
  a little bit of a repetition here
• 6:48
  over John Husted,
• 6:49
  49 to 44.
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  Kansas has Hamilton
• 6:52
  in Kansas,
• 6:53
  have not elected a Democratic senator senator since 1932.
• 6:58
  They have Hamilton up 49
• 7:00
  to 44.
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  Mary Peltola.
• 7:03
  Actually,
• 7:03
  this is a pretty bad result,
• 7:04
  uh,
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  for recent polling when it comes to Alaska.
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  Peltola at 48,
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  uh,
• 7:09
  Sullivan at 46,
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  and finally,
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  very,
• 7:11
  very close race,
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  maybe the closest race in the country,
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  Turk,
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  48,
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  Hinson,
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  47.
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  Now,
• 7:18
  the New York Times Sienna pollster,
• 7:19
  are one,
• 7:20
  it's one poll.
• 7:21
  You should never just put your faith in one poll,
• 7:22
  you shouldn't put your faith in the average of polls either.
• 7:24
  It's just another input.
• 7:26
  As I say often,
• 7:27
  the right way to think about polling is not as a surgical instrument.
• 7:32
  It's not the type of thing that can
• 7:33
  dissect 10th of a point
• 7:35
  with all that much reliability.
• 7:37
  What they are are blunt instruments.
• 7:39
  They can tell you the tone of a race,
• 7:40
  they can tell you the general direction.
• 7:41
  There's a reason why we know
• 7:43
  the Rhode Island Senate race is not gonna be that close,
• 7:46
  and Iowa will be.
• 7:48
  Polling helps us determine that.
• 7:51
  It doesn't help us determine who's ahead,
• 7:53
  Turk or Hinson when you're seeing 48,
• 7:55
  47.
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  Because
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  if you're sitting there,
• 7:57
  oh gosh,
• 7:57
  the polls were wrong,
• 7:58
  they had Turria by 1 point and Hinson lost,
• 8:00
  the,
• 8:00
  the polls aren't really wrong.
• 8:02
  They,
• 8:02
  they're,
• 8:02
  there's very much within the margin of error,
• 8:04
  and there isn't a,
• 8:05
  an admitted understanding
• 8:07
  that,
• 8:07
  you know,
• 8:07
  polls are not gonna be perfect.
• 8:08
  When you see a close race like this,
• 8:10
  you should not
• 8:11
  take
• 8:11
  which side is winning it
• 8:13
  as a lock.
• 8:14
  Uh,
• 8:14
  that is not what you should do.
• 8:16
  Now,
• 8:16
  the Sienna,
• 8:16
  New York Times Sienna poll has had
• 8:18
  It's ups and downs over the years.
• 8:21
  As they point out,
• 8:22
  they've had two different cycles where Democrats were heavily favored
• 8:25
  previous to this,
• 8:26
  where they've done polling.
• 8:27
  2018,
• 8:28
  final,
• 8:28
  final polls show Democrats gaining across the board.
• 8:31
  That is what happened.
• 8:32
  Uh,
• 8:32
  this,
• 8:33
  the,
• 8:33
  the,
• 8:33
  in the end,
• 8:33
  the Times Sienna poll was basically dead on.
• 8:36
  It was a very good year
• 8:37
  for pollsters.
• 8:38
  They pretty much nailed
• 8:40
  that election in 2018.
• 8:41
  That was a midterm election.
• 8:42
  2020,
• 8:43
  not so much for the New York Times Sienna.
• 8:45
  They underestimated Donald Trump by 5 points.
• 8:48
  Obviously he wound up winning.
• 8:50
  Um,
• 8:50
  or excuse me,
• 8:51
  uh,
• 8:51
  uh,
• 8:51
  Biden wound up winning that election by by much
• 8:53
  less than they had projected in the polls.
• 8:58
  One thing that is interesting about pollsters,
• 9:01
  in that
• 9:02
  they are,
• 9:03
  there are some bad ones out there.
• 9:05
  As we've seen,
• 9:05
  there are some people
• 9:06
  who are faking polls completely.
• 9:08
  We've seen multiple uh examples of that,
• 9:10
  where there's faking the data.
• 9:12
  Sometimes they will do what's called herding,
• 9:14
  which is trying to fit their polls to the public perception
• 9:18
  because they don't wanna look like the crazy outlier,
• 9:21
  right?
• 9:21
  They don't wanna look like Ann Selzer
• 9:23
  in,
• 9:23
  in 2024 where she's predicting,
• 9:25
  you know,
• 9:25
  predicting that,
• 9:25
  uh,
• 9:26
  Kamala Harris is gonna win the state
• 9:28
  of Iowa,
• 9:29
  and then,
• 9:29
  you know,
• 9:29
  she winds up losing by 13 points.
• 9:31
  You don't wanna be her.
• 9:32
  She got,
• 9:32
  I mean,
• 9:32
  she literally was sued by the president over it,
• 9:35
  so you don't wanna be that person.
• 9:37
  So they'll herd,
• 9:37
  they'll get in the middle,
• 9:38
  oh,
• 9:38
  we're really close election,
• 9:39
  we're not sure,
• 9:40
  you know,
• 9:40
  and uh that doesn't serve anybody either.
• 9:43
  Pollsters though are incentivized to try to get these things right.
• 9:47
  Um,
• 9:48
  when you take out the outlier types that are really partisan,
• 9:51
  when you take out the outlier types that are truly just faking it,
• 9:55
  you got a bunch of people who are like,
• 9:56
  well,
• 9:57
  we don't get our private poll checks if we start missing these elections.
• 10:01
  These public polls that you and I hear about
• 10:03
  are essentially commercials for their business.
• 10:05
  Hey,
• 10:05
  we're good at figuring public opinion out.
• 10:08
  If we nail this election,
• 10:08
  they get lots of business behind the scenes from,
• 10:10
  from,
• 10:11
  you know,
• 10:11
  large companies and everything else to poll things that they care about.
• 10:15
  So,
• 10:16
  they are incentivized to change these things,
• 10:17
  and,
• 10:18
  and they do make changes over time.
• 10:20
  They're not always successful.
• 10:22
  2016,
• 10:22
  they missed the in the polls.
• 10:24
  And they came back and they said,
• 10:25
  OK,
• 10:25
  we figured out what that was.
• 10:26
  We had not adjusted for,
• 10:28
  um,
• 10:28
  education quality,
• 10:29
  um,
• 10:30
  or education levels,
• 10:31
  so now we've done that.
• 10:31
  Everything will be fine in 2020.
• 10:33
  You'll be surprised to hear that was not the truth.
• 10:34
  They missed actually by more
• 10:36
  in 2020 than they did in 2016,
• 10:38
  even though they got the,
• 10:40
  the outcome,
• 10:41
  uh,
• 10:41
  correct.
• 10:42
  They missed by even more.
• 10:44
  2024,
• 10:45
  they missed by less,
• 10:45
  but they still missed the same way,
• 10:47
  all three times
• 10:48
  against Donald Trump.
• 10:49
  It's important to note that the midterms in between polling did very,
• 10:53
  very well.
• 10:53
  So this may be a unique Donald Trump problem to some degree.
• 10:57
  The other thing is they have,
• 10:59
  they will make adjustments in between years to try to fix themselves.
• 11:05
  Um,
• 11:06
  they,
• 11:06
  you know,
• 11:06
  it's,
• 11:07
  it's,
• 11:07
  uh,
• 11:08
  I,
• 11:08
  I'd hate to say it's like the Philadelphia Eagles at halftime this year when
• 11:11
  they go into halftime doing nothing and then come out and do even worse.
• 11:15
  Uh,
• 11:15
  it could be that way.
• 11:16
  That's kind of what happened from 2016 to 2020.
• 11:18
  Uh,
• 11:19
  COVID may be a factor there as well.
• 11:21
  But
• 11:21
  if you go into this and you're saying,
• 11:23
  OK,
• 11:23
  we see what we did wrong,
• 11:24
  we see how we missed,
• 11:26
  we better improve that or no one's gonna listen to us next time.
• 11:29
  The New York Times did this,
• 11:31
  and they actually talk about the adjustments they made.
• 11:34
  They made changes in how they weighted individual polling participants.
• 11:39
  This is no longer the day where you can just call a bunch
• 11:40
  of random phone numbers in the phone book and get random results.
• 11:44
  Why?
• 11:46
  Nobody answers the phone,
• 11:47
  especially Republicans and conservatives.
• 11:49
  So if you do that,
• 11:50
  you wind up with the results that are terrible.
• 11:51
  What they do is try to fit those results into what they know about demographics,
• 11:55
  uh,
• 11:56
  certain percentages of different racial groups,
• 11:58
  uh,
• 11:58
  gender groups,
• 11:59
  and,
• 12:00
  um,
• 12:00
  another one is they use a lot of times is called recall vote.
• 12:03
  Uh,
• 12:03
  recall vote is basically.
• 12:04
  Hey,
• 12:05
  who'd you vote for in 2024?
• 12:06
  Well,
• 12:06
  we know what the real number was,
• 12:08
  right?
• 12:08
  Donald Trump won in a slight majority.
• 12:10
  Um,
• 12:10
  OK,
• 12:10
  well,
• 12:11
  let's,
• 12:11
  let's make sure that the voters we have today
• 12:14
  all say that that's about the percentage that they did for Trump.
• 12:17
  Problem with that is,
• 12:18
  of course,
• 12:19
  people lie to the pollsters.
• 12:20
  They say that they did,
• 12:21
  they voted for one person that they didn't,
• 12:23
  and it's hard to get those people on the phone.
• 12:26
  So they changed their weighting procedures over here.
• 12:28
  That poll that I just gave you is the new weighted procedures.
• 12:32
  They told us what would have happened
• 12:34
  if they use the old ones.
• 12:36
  So the old procedures that they had,
• 12:39
  Michigan,
• 12:39
  which was a Democrat + 11,
• 12:41
  El Sayed + 11,
• 12:42
  turns into
• 12:43
  Democrats plus 16.
• 12:46
  Alaska,
• 12:47
  we,
• 12:47
  we saw a Democrat +1,
• 12:50
  would be Democrat + 6,
• 12:51
  a 5-point gap.
• 12:52
  Iowa,
• 12:53
  a 3-point gap,
• 12:54
  Kansas,
• 12:54
  a 5-point gap,
• 12:56
  Maine,
• 12:56
  a 1 point gap,
• 12:57
  Ohio,
• 12:58
  a 5-point gap,
• 12:59
  and Texas,
• 13:00
  a 2-point gap.
• 13:01
  All of those with the exception of Maine.
• 13:04
  Actually moved against Republicans and toward Democrats.
• 13:08
  So
• 13:09
  Uh,
• 13:10
  you know,
• 13:11
  look,
• 13:12
  this is just to set the scene for you.
• 13:14
  What does this mean?
• 13:15
  Should we believe this stuff?
• 13:16
  I mean,
• 13:17
  I think
• 13:17
  it's very
• 13:19
  normal,
• 13:20
  natural,
• 13:20
  and intelligent to have a healthy skepticism on these things,
• 13:23
  but I thought it'd be worth looking
• 13:24
  at the prediction market data because
• 13:26
  this is something we're getting that's a little bit more refined.
• 13:28
  There's no agenda in prediction market data.
• 13:30
  I know a lot of people say,
• 13:31
  well,
• 13:31
  gosh,
• 13:31
  it can be manipulated.
• 13:32
  We've covered that before,
• 13:33
  I won't go into it now.
• 13:35
  But what I,
• 13:35
  what I would say is,
• 13:36
  it's people's money where their mouth is,
• 13:37
  and when they're big markets that are very,
• 13:39
  very liquid,
• 13:40
  it's,
• 13:40
  you know,
• 13:40
  it just costs so much money to even try to manipulate them and
• 13:43
  they would bounce back almost immediately from traders.
• 13:47
  Calshi is just something that I think is really valuable here,
• 13:50
  which is to kind of set the scene
• 13:52
  with a combination of different effects and describing them,
• 13:56
  um,
• 13:56
  in,
• 13:56
  you know,
• 13:57
  terms we're all familiar with.
• 13:59
  They have contracts for things like the red wave or the blue wave,
• 14:02
  and you could see what the percentage of likelihood of those things are.
• 14:05
  Now you might say,
• 14:06
  I doubt the polls,
• 14:07
  I think they're fake.
• 14:08
  I think,
• 14:08
  uh,
• 14:08
  all this media coverage is BS.
• 14:10
  Whatever you think.
• 14:11
  Realize that if you do believe that,
• 14:14
  there are opportunities for you on these markets.
• 14:16
  If you think
• 14:17
  that a red wave is coming and everyone's lying to you,
• 14:20
  if that happens,
• 14:21
  you can make a ton of money.
• 14:21
  Let me give you an example of this.
• 14:22
  There's a red wave contract on Calci.
• 14:25
  This red wave consists of just two measures.
• 14:27
  Will Republicans hold 220 House seats,
• 14:30
  so a very
• 14:31
  small majority,
• 14:32
  basically what they have now,
• 14:34
  and will they get to 55 Senate seats?
• 14:36
  They currently have 53.
• 14:37
  If you can check both of those boxes,
• 14:39
  it is counted as a red wave.
• 14:41
  What do the markets believe is a chance of this?
• 14:44
  This is a pretty normal year,
• 14:46
  right?
• 14:46
  You hold,
• 14:47
  you basically stay the same.
• 14:48
  Stay the same in the house,
• 14:50
  add a couple seats in the Senate in a map that pretty much favors you.
• 14:53
  What are the chances of that?
• 14:54
  4.5%,
• 14:57
  4.5%.
• 14:59
  Now,
• 14:59
  they
• 15:00
  at Calci have different markets for different levels of what could happen here.
• 15:04
  So you have,
• 15:04
  that's the,
• 15:04
  that's the side on the red.
• 15:06
  Let's go to the blue side for a little bit.
• 15:08
  A blue trickle is the next one.
• 15:10
  Will
• 15:11
  Democrats get 215+ seats?
• 15:13
  That means if they got 215,
• 15:14
  they would not control even the House.
• 15:16
  Will they get to 215 in the House,
• 15:18
  uh,
• 15:18
  or more?
• 15:19
  And will they get 48 Senate seats?
• 15:21
  So again,
• 15:23
  uh,
• 15:23
  they gain some,
• 15:24
  uh,
• 15:25
  some,
• 15:26
  uh,
• 15:26
  you know,
• 15:26
  a little bit here.
• 15:27
  Um,
• 15:28
  but they don't necessarily,
• 15:29
  uh,
• 15:30
  overwhelm
• 15:31
  with the possibility here of a,
• 15:33
  uh,
• 15:33
  on the blue trickle side.
• 15:34
  Uh,
• 15:35
  the,
• 15:35
  the,
• 15:35
  the answer there is,
• 15:37
  uh,
• 15:38
  95%,
• 15:39
  they will get to that level.
• 15:40
  215 House seats,
• 15:41
  48 Senate seats.
• 15:42
  Next one is the blue.
• 15:44
  Blue Wave says 218 House seats,
• 15:47
  uh,
• 15:47
  which would be control of the House.
• 15:48
  So basically,
• 15:49
  they win the control of the House and they get to 49 Senate seats.
• 15:52
  So they could still not get control
• 15:54
  of the Senate with either 49 seats or 50,
• 15:57
  because JD Vance would come in on that one.
• 15:59
  so that is 49 Senate seats,
• 16:01
  218 House seats.
• 16:03
  The number there,
• 16:03
  an 87.5% chance
• 16:07
  for that to happen.
• 16:09
  Again,
• 16:09
  if you think
• 16:10
  one of these levels is wrong,
• 16:11
  you have real opportunity,
• 16:13
  real upside if you think Republicans are gonna do better.
• 16:15
  If you think Democrats are gonna do better,
• 16:16
  you can go to the blue tsunami contract.
• 16:19
  This gets you to 235
• 16:21
  House seats
• 16:22
  and 51+ Senate seats.
• 16:25
  There's a 66% chance
• 16:27
  of that happening according
• 16:29
  to Kelsey.
• 16:29
  And look at the movement here,
• 16:31
  if we could for just a minute.
• 16:32
  Can you zoom into a month for me,
• 16:34
  Adam,
• 16:34
  on this one?
• 16:35
  Um,
• 16:35
  right now,
• 16:35
  it is at,
• 16:36
  uh,
• 16:36
  64.8% chance to happen.
• 16:38
  If you go back to
• 16:40
  like mid to late October,
• 16:42
  we're talking about a fifty-fifty proposition.
• 16:44
  Um,
• 16:45
  maybe a little bit,
• 16:46
  uh,
• 16:46
  sorry,
• 16:46
  uh,
• 16:47
  late October,
• 16:47
  October 25th in that range and that those little bottoms there.
• 16:50
  Um.
• 16:51
  Under 50% chance
• 16:53
  on October 24th,
• 16:54
  which you may know was just over a week ago.
• 16:56
  That's how good the polls have been at the end
• 16:58
  of this cycle
• 17:00
  for Democrats.
• 17:01
  They have been legitimately really good.
• 17:03
  And one of my
• 17:04
  thoughts here was as we get closer to the election,
• 17:06
  we'd start seeing progress,
• 17:08
  uh,
• 17:08
  for Republicans in some of these polls
• 17:10
  that was,
• 17:11
  had some truth to it.
• 17:12
  You,
• 17:13
  you see it kind of coming down from 60 to 50.
• 17:15
  But it has bounced back the other way and now it's 64.8% chance for the blue tsunami.
• 17:19
  If you think,
• 17:19
  OK,
• 17:20
  well,
• 17:20
  that's a blue tsunami,
• 17:21
  that's as good as it can get for Democrats.
• 17:22
  No,
• 17:22
  no.
• 17:23
  Calci also has a blue
• 17:25
  mega tsunami contract.
• 17:26
  Yes,
• 17:27
  the blue mega tsunami.
• 17:29
  This is,
• 17:30
  will they get to 240+ seats
• 17:33
  and 54 Senate seats?
• 17:35
  Is that possible?
• 17:36
  It's possible.
• 17:38
  It's a 32% chance of happening.
• 17:39
  So you see,
• 17:41
  the markets believe.
• 17:43
  This is around where the level dries up.
• 17:46
  Somewhere between the blue tsunami and the blue mega tsunami
• 17:50
  is where that fifty-fifty line is,
• 17:52
  probably towards the regular tsunami,
• 17:55
  not mega,
• 17:55
  and that's a technical term,
• 17:56
  as you know,
• 17:57
  mega tsunami,
• 17:59
  very technical breakdown.
• 18:01
  That is what
• 18:02
  they say,
• 18:03
  right?
• 18:04
  That is what the prediction markets say,
• 18:06
  that is what the pollsters say,
• 18:07
  that's what the analysts say.
• 18:09
  Well,
• 18:10
  what should we be thinking?
• 18:11
  What do I think?
• 18:12
  I mean,
• 18:12
  I'm going to election night.
• 18:13
  I will tell you,
• 18:14
  I have,
• 18:14
  uh,
• 18:14
  you know,
• 18:15
  uh,
• 18:15
  a lot of money in prediction markets,
• 18:16
  uh,
• 18:16
  and,
• 18:17
  uh,
• 18:17
  I've been,
• 18:18
  I've had an increasing amount over a long period of time,
• 18:21
  over a decade.
• 18:22
  So,
• 18:23
  when you're talking about prediction markets,
• 18:24
  it's something I care about.
• 18:25
  I will be
• 18:26
  on election night,
• 18:27
  not only covering the election,
• 18:29
  but trading it with you.
• 18:30
  If you're gonna be trading,
• 18:32
  you can get on there and you can watch us do this in real-time.
• 18:34
  We'll,
• 18:35
  we'll walk you through the trades that we're making.
• 18:37
  We'll tell you what we think is gonna happen next.
• 18:39
  All the panic,
• 18:40
  all the,
• 18:41
  all the,
• 18:41
  uh,
• 18:42
  thrill of victory and the agony of defeat of defeat will be on display.
• 18:46
  On election night.
• 18:47
  Again,
• 18:47
  starting at 6:45 Eastern
• 18:49
  on the YouTube.com/atpredictableshow
• 18:54
  page as well as predictableshow.com.
• 18:56
  I think we'll be on X Facebook as well.
• 18:57
  Join us
• 18:58
  there because it's gonna be a lot of fun.
• 18:59
  I'm gonna come back,
• 19:00
  I'm gonna walk you through where I think the Senate is,
• 19:02
  and where I think it's going.
• 19:03
  We'll give you a house number,
• 19:04
  we'll give you some gubernatorial picks as well.
• 19:07
  It's all coming up on our last show
• 19:09
  before the midterm elections and our election coverage
• 19:13
  kicks off.
• 19:13
  Join us as a premium subscriber,
• 19:15
  get all the tools.
• 19:16
  We have,
• 19:16
  as I mentioned,
• 19:17
  a brand new tool for election night that I think you're really gonna like.
• 19:20
  If you're trading these markets at all.
• 19:22
  Just join us at predictableShow.com.
• 19:23
  If you're a trader,
• 19:24
  if you are just interested in these elections,
• 19:26
  like at a high level,
• 19:27
  you are going to find this,
• 19:29
  I think,
• 19:29
  to be certainly
• 19:31
  worth its money and,
• 19:32
  and very,
• 19:32
  very valuable
• 19:33
  to your portfolio.
• 19:35
  OK,
• 19:35
  we're gonna take a break.
• 19:35
  Back in a second.
• 19:53
  All right.
• 19:54
  Let's get to it.
• 19:55
  Let's figure it out right now together.
• 19:56
  The Senate is here.
• 19:57
  We have a tool that has been up for a while at predictableShow.com,
• 20:01
  that is just a Senate board.
• 20:02
  You can kind of drag the states around to see,
• 20:04
  hey,
• 20:05
  if these things happen,
• 20:06
  what will the Senate count be?
• 20:07
  I figured that's the easiest thing to do.
• 20:08
  It's at predictableShow.com,
• 20:10
  go check it out,
• 20:10
  it's a free tool.
• 20:11
  Um,
• 20:12
  but,
• 20:12
  uh,
• 20:12
  if you wanna,
• 20:13
  you know,
• 20:13
  make your own board,
• 20:14
  and you can send that out,
• 20:15
  there's a share button as well if you wanna do that.
• 20:17
  So,
• 20:18
  Um,
• 20:19
  here's where we are,
• 20:19
  and then let me show you where I have the board right now.
• 20:22
  This is,
• 20:23
  uh,
• 20:23
  a general idea,
• 20:24
  um,
• 20:24
  of,
• 20:25
  uh,
• 20:25
  we're gonna start kind of at the beginning here.
• 20:27
  You have a,
• 20:28
  the way we do this is solid Democrats,
• 20:30
  solid Republicans,
• 20:31
  then likely Democrats,
• 20:32
  likely Republicans,
• 20:33
  uh,
• 20:33
  a little bit less certain with lean Democrat,
• 20:35
  lean Republicans,
• 20:36
  and then toss up.
• 20:37
  Right now I threw a bunch of states in the toss-up
• 20:38
  so we can kind of walk through this as we go,
• 20:40
  um,
• 20:41
  to,
• 20:41
  uh,
• 20:41
  just show you where there's a ton of them in there,
• 20:43
  so I'll try to get to this fast.
• 20:45
  Long story short,
• 20:46
  we,
• 20:47
  uh,
• 20:47
  we're gonna start over just quickly,
• 20:49
  the solid Democratic states,
• 20:50
  Colorado,
• 20:51
  Delaware,
• 20:51
  Illinois,
• 20:52
  Massachusetts,
• 20:53
  New Jersey,
• 20:53
  New Mexico,
• 20:54
  Oregon,
• 20:55
  Rhode Island,
• 20:55
  and Virginia.
• 20:56
  I don't see any reason we're gonna see
• 20:59
  any drama on that side.
• 21:00
  On the solid Republican side,
• 21:02
  it's the same
• 21:03
  idea.
• 21:03
  I like these are the ones I think will be no real,
• 21:06
  uh,
• 21:06
  drama.
• 21:07
  Actually,
• 21:07
  you can put,
• 21:07
  put Montana in the likely Republican for a second
• 21:10
  cause I wanna talk about that for a second,
• 21:11
  Adam.
• 21:12
  Um,
• 21:12
  Adam's dragging these states around for me.
• 21:14
  Um,
• 21:14
  so in solid Republican,
• 21:15
  we'll leave Alaska,
• 21:16
  uh,
• 21:16
  Alabama,
• 21:17
  Arkansas,
• 21:19
  those state
• 21:20
  abbreviations always get me
• 21:22
  crossed up a little bit.
• 21:22
  Kentucky,
• 21:23
  Oklahoma,
• 21:24
  Wyoming,
• 21:25
  Tennessee,
• 21:25
  and West Virginia.
• 21:26
  OK,
• 21:26
  so that's,
• 21:27
  uh,
• 21:27
  where we are.
• 21:28
  Uh,
• 21:28
  let me talk about Montana briefly and what I did in the likely category here.
• 21:31
  All four of the states that you see there,
• 21:33
  which are as follows,
• 21:35
  uh,
• 21:35
  Idaho,
• 21:36
  Louisiana,
• 21:37
  Montana,
• 21:38
  and South Dakota,
• 21:39
  South Dakota.
• 21:39
  All four of those I expect to go Republican.
• 21:42
  Obviously they're in the likely Republican category for a reason.
• 21:45
  The reason I put them there and separate them from the
• 21:47
  solids is at the very fringe of the Democrat mega tsunami.
• 21:51
  These are states you could talk about.
• 21:54
  Louisiana,
• 21:54
  there was one poll from a Democratic pollster that showed this very,
• 21:57
  very close,
• 21:57
  I think tied.
• 21:58
  Uh,
• 21:59
  again,
• 21:59
  I expect Ludlow to win there,
• 22:01
  um,
• 22:01
  but,
• 22:02
  you know,
• 22:03
  the fringes of this,
• 22:04
  could there be an argument?
• 22:05
  Uh,
• 22:06
  maybe.
• 22:07
  Then you have,
• 22:07
  uh,
• 22:07
  3 other states I wanted to highlight for a reason,
• 22:09
  specifically,
• 22:10
  Idaho,
• 22:11
  Montana,
• 22:12
  and South Dakota.
• 22:13
  All three of those have been sort of,
• 22:15
  uh,
• 22:15
  victims of this Democratic thing they're trying to do,
• 22:18
  which is run fake,
• 22:19
  uh,
• 22:20
  Democrats or fake independents as
• 22:22
  fake Democrats as independents.
• 22:24
  Now,
• 22:24
  real Democrats running as fake independents.
• 22:26
  That's what I'm trying to say.
• 22:27
  Uh,
• 22:27
  they have,
• 22:28
  it's,
• 22:28
  it's similar to Nebraska,
• 22:29
  they have a candidate who is running as an independent,
• 22:31
  but is basically a Democrat.
• 22:32
  And
• 22:33
  because of that,
• 22:34
  the polling's really weird in some of these states,
• 22:36
  so I put them in likely Republican.
• 22:37
  I don't think any of those three will be a problem for Republicans,
• 22:41
  but I,
• 22:42
  I put them there with just the,
• 22:43
  the edges of your concern in the,
• 22:45
  in the mega tsunami land.
• 22:47
  Let's go through some of these other states and we will place them
• 22:49
  where I believe they will be,
• 22:51
  uh,
• 22:51
  and I'm gonna do my best to take every single state out of this middle column
• 22:55
  right now
• 22:56
  and put them somewhere.
• 22:57
  Um,
• 22:58
  let's start with Minnesota.
• 22:59
  Minnesota,
• 22:59
  uh,
• 23:00
  has been close.
• 23:01
  Michelle Tafoya has done very well in the polling.
• 23:03
  She's run a good race.
• 23:04
  She's a much better candidate than Peggy Flanagan.
• 23:06
  That being said,
• 23:07
  this is a Democratic year in a Democratic state.
• 23:10
  And I don't think she's gonna be able to get quite there.
• 23:13
  So I do have Michelle Tafoya,
• 23:15
  uh,
• 23:15
  losing to Peggy Flanagan.
• 23:16
  We're gonna put Minnesota into the likely Democratic column.
• 23:19
  Next up,
• 23:19
  we will do Georgia.
• 23:21
  Georgia is,
• 23:22
  uh,
• 23:22
  Mike Collins versus Jon Ossoff.
• 23:23
  This has not been a questionable one for a long time.
• 23:26
  Georgia looks like to me it's going to Jon Ossoff,
• 23:29
  uh,
• 23:30
  probably by a high single digits margin.
• 23:33
  I have some positions on those margin markets.
• 23:35
  We'll move that to the likely,
• 23:36
  uh,
• 23:37
  Democrat as well.
• 23:38
  North Carolina is the same story.
• 23:40
  This is one that,
• 23:40
  you know,
• 23:41
  Republicans pulled money out of a long time ago.
• 23:43
  This will be a pickup for Democrats,
• 23:45
  and we will move,
• 23:46
  uh,
• 23:46
  Roy Cooper over to the likely Democratic column,
• 23:50
  giving them another
• 23:51
  seat.
• 23:52
  Alaska.
• 23:53
  Alaska is a very close race between Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola.
• 23:57
  I don't honestly know what the effect of
• 24:00
  the latest rounds of scandals on Peltola are.
• 24:03
  She,
• 24:03
  her numbers are good
• 24:04
  in the state.
• 24:05
  She's well liked in the state.
• 24:06
  She is the type of person,
• 24:08
  maybe you can bring me up in the box here,
• 24:09
  so they're not just looking at the screen the entire time,
• 24:11
  yeah,
• 24:11
  there we go.
• 24:12
  Um,
• 24:13
  she,
• 24:13
  she is the type of person
• 24:15
  that
• 24:15
  is,
• 24:16
  her polling is very good in that state.
• 24:18
  She tries to run away from.
• 24:20
  The Democratic Party,
• 24:21
  I mean,
• 24:21
  there's a lot,
• 24:22
  this is gonna be a repeating thing.
• 24:23
  They're,
• 24:24
  they're running away from those fringes,
• 24:25
  running away from that,
• 24:26
  that woke version one
• 24:28
  type of party
• 24:29
  and trying to plant themselves in a place where normal people can,
• 24:32
  uh,
• 24:32
  can justify voting for them.
• 24:34
  It's working in some cases.
• 24:35
  I don't know what this last round of scandals will do.
• 24:38
  My,
• 24:39
  my belief is the,
• 24:40
  her abusing her staffers,
• 24:43
  not gonna make much of a difference.
• 24:45
  Um,
• 24:45
  that's kind of where I think.
• 24:46
  The fact that she was saying she was texting,
• 24:49
  you know,
• 24:49
  uh,
• 24:50
  bad language to people and,
• 24:52
  and,
• 24:52
  you know,
• 24:52
  making,
• 24:53
  uh,
• 24:54
  as Megyn Kelly always points out,
• 24:56
  uh,
• 24:57
  that,
• 24:57
  uh,
• 24:57
  noting that,
• 24:58
  uh,
• 24:59
  her,
• 24:59
  her lizard,
• 25:00
  uh,
• 25:00
  meatball,
• 25:02
  not,
• 25:02
  not,
• 25:02
  not a meat,
• 25:03
  not a meatball made of lizards,
• 25:04
  by the way,
• 25:04
  I want to make sure that's clear.
• 25:06
  It is a lizard that's named Meatball,
• 25:08
  and they had to Feed the lizard
• 25:09
  that's named Meatball.
• 25:11
  That was part of the scandal.
• 25:12
  I don't think any of that's gonna move the needle.
• 25:13
  The,
• 25:13
  the one where they got caught red-handed
• 25:16
  trying to trick Alaskan voters out
• 25:19
  of,
• 25:19
  um,
• 25:20
  uh,
• 25:21
  uh,
• 25:21
  out of,
• 25:21
  uh,
• 25:22
  voting for their candidate that they wanted,
• 25:24
  essentially trying to recruit a fake Dan Sullivan
• 25:27
  to run against the real Dan Sullivan,
• 25:28
  could make
• 25:29
  a difference around the margins,
• 25:30
  and this is gonna be a very close race.
• 25:33
  At the end of the day though,
• 25:33
  I think Alaska winds up going to the Democrats in a close race,
• 25:37
  lean Democrat for that one,
• 25:39
  Adam,
• 25:39
  uh,
• 25:40
  moving that over there,
• 25:41
  one lean Democrat so far.
• 25:43
  New Hampshire is a,
• 25:44
  uh,
• 25:45
  uh,
• 25:45
  a,
• 25:45
  a situation where
• 25:47
  John Sununu going up against Chris Pappas,
• 25:49
  this was thought to be
• 25:50
  pretty,
• 25:51
  um,
• 25:51
  close
• 25:52
  because Sununu is a.
• 25:53
  You know,
• 25:54
  a good candidate for the state has a big name recognition,
• 25:57
  uh,
• 25:57
  issue,
• 25:58
  uh,
• 25:58
  that's for on the positive side of his ledger
• 26:00
  in New Hampshire.
• 26:01
  However,
• 26:02
  uh,
• 26:02
  this is when we were on really early and said,
• 26:04
  I just don't think Republicans are gonna get there in a climate like this.
• 26:08
  Uh,
• 26:08
  we're gonna move John Sununu losing to Chris Pappas.
• 26:11
  New Hampshire goes to
• 26:12
  likely Democrat.
• 26:14
  Uh,
• 26:14
  and we've had,
• 26:15
  we,
• 26:15
  we're,
• 26:15
  by the way,
• 26:15
  we were on that one for a long time.
• 26:17
  Most of the profit is,
• 26:18
  uh,
• 26:18
  dried up on that one,
• 26:19
  but hopefully you were with us and,
• 26:20
  and we're able to eat some of that profit up.
• 26:23
  Um,
• 26:23
  let's see,
• 26:23
  where should we go next?
• 26:24
  I'm gonna,
• 26:24
  I'm looking at these states cause I wanna,
• 26:26
  I wanna build the drama here.
• 26:28
  Let's go to Mississippi.
• 26:30
  Mississippi should not be in this freaking list,
• 26:33
  OK?
• 26:33
  Mississippi is Christie is Cindy Hyde-Smith against Scott Colom.
• 26:37
  The dynamics of this race are interesting.
• 26:39
  Um,
• 26:40
  Cindy Hyde-Smith is a,
• 26:42
  uh,
• 26:42
  is a
• 26:44
  Republican.
• 26:45
  Um,
• 26:45
  she was appointed initially,
• 26:46
  was later elected.
• 26:47
  She's not the most dynamic speaker.
• 26:49
  She's,
• 26:49
  I don't think she's a very good candidate.
• 26:51
  She's not running a very good race.
• 26:53
  Scott Colomb,
• 26:54
  um,
• 26:55
  is,
• 26:55
  has run a pretty good race.
• 26:57
  Um,
• 26:57
  and again,
• 26:58
  it's the same thing where all these
• 26:59
  Democrats are running almost as pseudo-Republicans.
• 27:02
  Like Scott Colomb's big criticism of,
• 27:05
  of Cindy Hyde-Smith has been like,
• 27:06
  well,
• 27:06
  she
• 27:07
  says you're not gonna be able to eat beef.
• 27:09
  Like,
• 27:09
  what,
• 27:09
  what parties are these anymore?
• 27:11
  I don't even understand what's happening.
• 27:12
  Um,
• 27:13
  but
• 27:13
  it's been a,
• 27:14
  uh,
• 27:14
  uh,
• 27:14
  I would say successful to push this into the conversation.
• 27:17
  Um,
• 27:18
  polls have showed it very,
• 27:18
  very close,
• 27:19
  though almost exclusively Democratic leaning polls,
• 27:23
  um,
• 27:23
  not,
• 27:23
  not totally,
• 27:24
  but most of them
• 27:25
  have been from Democratic pollsters.
• 27:27
  This is a close race.
• 27:28
  I think
• 27:29
  Cindy Hyde-Smith winds up
• 27:31
  holding on to this one.
• 27:32
  We'll move it to the lean,
• 27:33
  uh,
• 27:34
  Republican category.
• 27:36
  This should not be one I'm nervous about.
• 27:37
  I had a big position on Cindy Hyde-Smith earlier on thinking,
• 27:40
  oh my gosh,
• 27:41
  I can get 10,
• 27:41
  12% on,
• 27:42
  on Cindy Hyde-Smith.
• 27:43
  I don't know what that market's at.
• 27:44
  I should pull this up on my own,
• 27:46
  uh,
• 27:46
  so you don't have to keep doing this,
• 27:47
  uh,
• 27:47
  Adam,
• 27:48
  and cause I'm gonna keep thinking,
• 27:49
  oh gosh,
• 27:49
  what's the number on that one and then have to ask you to bring up new markets.
• 27:52
  Let me,
• 27:53
  uh,
• 27:53
  let me do that as we're going here,
• 27:55
  and we will get,
• 27:56
  uh,
• 27:57
  we'll get you something.
• 28:00
  Uh,
• 28:01
  let's see if I can find it.
• 28:02
  Um.
• 28:03
  Yeah,
• 28:04
  gosh,
• 28:04
  now I'm pressing all the wrong buttons.
• 28:05
  This is just,
• 28:06
  I'm,
• 28:06
  I'm choking.
• 28:07
  I'm choking.
• 28:07
  Here we go,
• 28:07
  midterm sub.
• 28:08
  OK.
• 28:09
  Um,
• 28:10
  Mississippi has it right now at 84% for Hyde Smith to win.
• 28:14
  I think she'll hold on.
• 28:15
  Uh,
• 28:15
  I don't think the margin is gonna be very large,
• 28:17
  and it's a terrible disappointment.
• 28:19
  Candidate quality is a big story here.
• 28:22
  Democrats were able to get a lot of younger people who,
• 28:24
  um,
• 28:25
  you know,
• 28:25
  who are on the ball a little bit more than
• 28:27
  Republican candidates who were kind of running some also-rans.
• 28:30
  They're gonna hear this again.
• 28:31
  Um,
• 28:31
  I think Mississippi winds up being held though by Cindy Hyde-Smith.
• 28:34
  OK.
• 28:34
  Um,
• 28:35
  next up,
• 28:35
  let's do
• 28:37
  Florida.
• 28:37
  Florida is Ashley Moody
• 28:39
  against,
• 28:40
  uh,
• 28:40
  Angie Nixon.
• 28:40
  I bring this one up right now because it is the reverse case.
• 28:43
  Uh,
• 28:44
  it's the reverse case of a lot of the,
• 28:45
  uh,
• 28:46
  stories that we,
• 28:46
  we will tell
• 28:48
  where Democrats came up with a good candidate and Republicans came up with a bad one.
• 28:50
  This is sort of the reverse.
• 28:52
  Uh,
• 28:52
  Ashley Moody's a good candidate.
• 28:54
  She's,
• 28:54
  um,
• 28:55
  run a good race,
• 28:55
  uh,
• 28:56
  you know,
• 28:56
  only a Democratic mega tsunami type situation
• 29:00
  could take her out.
• 29:01
  And then you add on to the fact that Angie Nixon,
• 29:03
  who's a socialist,
• 29:04
  is her opponent.
• 29:06
  Uh,
• 29:07
  Republicans have been running away with Florida.
• 29:09
  They will not win by these sort of,
• 29:10
  um.
• 29:12
  DeSantis level margins that they're getting used to.
• 29:15
  This is a bad year for Republicans.
• 29:16
  I kind of think she'll be in the mid to high
• 29:18
  single digits when it comes to victory on this one,
• 29:20
  but I will take Ashley Moody to move to lean Republican
• 29:24
  there.
• 29:25
  South Carolina,
• 29:26
  I'm staying the hell away from this race when it comes to prediction markets.
• 29:29
  I gotta tell you.
• 29:29
  I don't like,
• 29:30
  I don't,
• 29:30
  I don't,
• 29:31
  I just don't like the whole story with Darlene Graham Nordone.
• 29:33
  Nobody likes the idea that somebody's sister just got this job.
• 29:37
  Nobody likes that.
• 29:38
  Um,
• 29:38
  you know,
• 29:39
  you,
• 29:39
  you,
• 29:39
  you feel some sympathy for the family,
• 29:41
  you feel a little bit of grief.
• 29:42
  I think everybody would have,
• 29:43
  you know,
• 29:44
  kind of understood
• 29:45
  that she got the job here in a short period of time,
• 29:48
  right?
• 29:49
  Where,
• 29:49
  OK,
• 29:49
  you know,
• 29:50
  she's gonna run the,
• 29:50
  the half,
• 29:51
  uh,
• 29:51
  this little baby term until,
• 29:53
  until the election happens.
• 29:55
  I don't think people in South Carolina like the idea that
• 29:57
  she's being handed 6 years of this job when she doesn't,
• 29:59
  obviously,
• 29:59
  she doesn't know what she's doing with it.
• 30:01
  That being said,
• 30:01
  there are a lot of Republicans there,
• 30:03
  and it's difficult to get to a number where you can beat her.
• 30:06
  Uh,
• 30:06
  Annie Andrews is right there in the polls.
• 30:08
  I would not be surprised.
• 30:10
  I,
• 30:10
  I should tell you this,
• 30:11
  at this point,
• 30:12
  I'm looking at this race in the middle,
• 30:13
  toss-up.
• 30:15
  Everything left in the toss-up category,
• 30:16
  I feel
• 30:17
  minimal confidence about.
• 30:19
  These are the races I try to avoid when I have prediction
• 30:22
  market positions because I don't want close calls on election night.
• 30:26
  I don't want to be,
• 30:27
  oh my gosh,
• 30:28
  which way is it gonna go?
• 30:29
  I don't wanna be that guy.
• 30:30
  If I'm gonna be that guy,
• 30:31
  I wanna do it in the margin markets.
• 30:32
  I wanna do it with money.
• 30:33
  I've already made that night.
• 30:34
  Like,
• 30:34
  I don't want to be in markets where I'm like,
• 30:36
  oh gosh,
• 30:36
  I'm biting my fingernails and there's too many of those this year.
• 30:39
  So,
• 30:40
  if you want like money that's more reliable,
• 30:42
  stay in those outer columns,
• 30:44
  make your 5 to 10 to 15%
• 30:47
  in one night,
• 30:48
  and call it a day
• 30:49
  and be happy with yourself.
• 30:51
  That's totally a fine approach here and one that I,
• 30:53
  I normally make.
• 30:55
  What's happened here is I have had some
• 30:56
  positions I've held for a while thinking that,
• 30:58
  you know,
• 30:58
  we may go back to the Republicans.
• 31:00
  So I've got a little bit more nervousness than I would like to have here.
• 31:02
  South Carolina should not be part of it.
• 31:05
  But when I saw that debate,
• 31:06
  I've seen Darlene Graham,
• 31:07
  uh,
• 31:07
  in action.
• 31:08
  I pulled out of almost my entire position on this race.
• 31:11
  Anyway,
• 31:11
  I'm pretty much out of it.
• 31:12
  Uh,
• 31:13
  South Carolina though,
• 31:13
  I will,
• 31:14
  again,
• 31:15
  these are all gun to my head positions.
• 31:16
  I gotta put them somewhere.
• 31:17
  I'd like to not be involved in the South Carolina market,
• 31:19
  but I will put this one in lean Republican.
• 31:22
  Barely.
• 31:23
  I,
• 31:23
  I,
• 31:23
  I,
• 31:24
  I barely.
• 31:24
  I'm not confident in it,
• 31:25
  and that's,
• 31:26
  that's unbelievable.
• 31:27
  Nebraska will do next.
• 31:29
  Nebraska is,
• 31:29
  uh,
• 31:30
  another one of these cases.
• 31:31
  Pete Ricketts
• 31:32
  running against Dan Osborne.
• 31:34
  Uh,
• 31:34
  Osborne is a fake independent,
• 31:36
  uh,
• 31:36
  obviously a Democrat running as an independent.
• 31:38
  He's,
• 31:38
  I mean,
• 31:39
  you know,
• 31:39
  to the level that he's actually been caught on,
• 31:41
  on,
• 31:41
  you know,
• 31:42
  recorded audio
• 31:43
  saying things that make him sound like a left-wing Democrat.
• 31:46
  One thing that's really easily,
• 31:47
  uh,
• 31:47
  can kind of tell the story of these fake independent candidates
• 31:50
  is that
• 31:51
  none of the analysts.
• 31:53
  There are like,
• 31:54
  well,
• 31:54
  what will happen if it's a 50,
• 31:56
  uh,
• 31:56
  50 to 49 race and Dan Osborne's out or 51 to 49,
• 32:01
  and Dan Osborne's there,
• 32:02
  um,
• 32:03
  you know,
• 32:03
  uh,
• 32:04
  will he,
• 32:05
  uh,
• 32:05
  just not,
• 32:06
  well,
• 32:06
  maybe he'll caucus with the Republicans.
• 32:07
  He's an independent.
• 32:08
  Who knows?
• 32:09
  Nobody says that stuff because everybody knows.
• 32:11
  Everybody knows what side he's gonna be.
• 32:13
  Everybody knows he's going to be a Democrat.
• 32:15
  Everybody knows that every one of these fake
• 32:17
  independents are just going to be Democrats.
• 32:19
  Um,
• 32:20
  will this work on,
• 32:21
  and I say everybody,
• 32:22
  everybody in the media,
• 32:23
  everybody in the voting populace probably doesn't know that,
• 32:26
  and there,
• 32:26
  some of these people will be fooled by this,
• 32:28
  uh,
• 32:28
  you know,
• 32:28
  if you have people that you know,
• 32:30
  uh,
• 32:30
  look,
• 32:31
  what they may want that,
• 32:32
  and if they want that,
• 32:32
  they should vote for it,
• 32:33
  but they should not be fooled into utilizing
• 32:36
  their vote for something that is not real.
• 32:38
  That pisses me off.
• 32:39
  This is me.
• 32:40
  Uh,
• 32:40
  Nebraska,
• 32:41
  though,
• 32:41
  uh,
• 32:41
  I,
• 32:41
  you know,
• 32:42
  Ricketts and Osborne,
• 32:43
  the polling very,
• 32:43
  very close here again.
• 32:45
  Osborne ran last time in 2020,
• 32:48
  I think it was 2024,
• 32:49
  right?
• 32:49
  Against Deb Fisher
• 32:50
  and lost by seven points,
• 32:52
  though the polling showed very close.
• 32:53
  I've made this case before,
• 32:54
  but
• 32:55
  if you add up
• 32:56
  the Democrats in the state and the independents in the state,
• 32:59
  they don't equal the Republicans in the state.
• 33:02
  Nebraska is a really red state,
• 33:03
  and I think,
• 33:04
  uh,
• 33:05
  Nebraska will be held by Ricketts,
• 33:06
  who's run an OK race,
• 33:07
  a decent race,
• 33:08
  and also has some good resources.
• 33:10
  He's run a lot of commercials.
• 33:11
  He's not being outspent massively.
• 33:13
  Uh,
• 33:13
  so I do think Ricketts holds on and he goes to the lean Republican
• 33:16
  category here.
• 33:17
  We're getting close to who's going to control the Senate.
• 33:20
  Let's go through the last 123456 states.
• 33:25
  Start with Ohio.
• 33:28
  Ohio is a state that I really would have believed for a long time
• 33:32
  would have stayed and was moving in that Republican direction would stay there.
• 33:36
  There are reasons that I have less faith in other states.
• 33:39
  I have way less faith,
• 33:40
  for example,
• 33:41
  in the Hispanic districts of Texas,
• 33:44
  when you talk about House seats,
• 33:45
  and Republicans got very excited about how they did well in 2024 among these groups,
• 33:49
  and I just like you can't.
• 33:51
  I said this on the air 100 times,
• 33:52
  you can't depend
• 33:54
  on that type of voter for a long-term strategy.
• 33:57
  If you can win them an election,
• 33:59
  great.
• 34:00
  But if you try to say,
• 34:01
  well,
• 34:01
  now we're a Republican Party
• 34:03
  that just wins 60% of Latino voters in Texas,
• 34:07
  you're gonna wind up with problems.
• 34:09
  I said it over and over again,
• 34:10
  uh,
• 34:10
  when we got closer to redistricting.
• 34:12
  And I said,
• 34:13
  well,
• 34:13
  guys,
• 34:13
  if you
• 34:14
  redistrict to 2024 numbers,
• 34:16
  you may very well end up with what they call a dummymander,
• 34:19
  where you gerrymander a race for your own favor and then wind up losing it.
• 34:23
  I think that's gonna probably happen in several of those races,
• 34:25
  by the way.
• 34:26
  That's not the story though of,
• 34:28
  uh,
• 34:28
  of Ohio.
• 34:29
  Ohio is a different animal obviously like there's not
• 34:32
  as high a of a percentage of Hispanic voters.
• 34:34
  Um,
• 34:35
  what's happened in Ohio,
• 34:36
  there has been a big
• 34:38
  factor of tariffs have hit Ohio very,
• 34:40
  uh,
• 34:41
  strongly.
• 34:41
  Now of course Sherrod Brown.
• 34:43
  He's a tariff guy.
• 34:44
  He's been a tariff guy.
• 34:46
  He's,
• 34:46
  he,
• 34:47
  he,
• 34:47
  I'm a tough,
• 34:48
  a rough and tumble union guy.
• 34:49
  I,
• 34:50
  he was,
• 34:50
  he's been a protectionist his entire life,
• 34:52
  but he's trying to act like he's not right now.
• 34:55
  Long story short,
• 34:56
  uh,
• 34:58
  Sherrod Brown,
• 34:58
  a lot of people in the state still think he's the incumbent senator.
• 35:01
  He's been there for so long.
• 35:03
  There is a good push,
• 35:04
  a smart push by Husted to say,
• 35:05
  hey,
• 35:06
  this guy's been in politics for 50 years.
• 35:08
  Do you still want more of this?
• 35:09
  I'm the new guy.
• 35:09
  He's the other.
• 35:11
  You wanna fight against the establishment,
• 35:12
  you gotta go against him.
• 35:13
  Really smart approach.
• 35:15
  I fear though,
• 35:15
  in this environment,
• 35:16
  it will not be enough.
• 35:17
  And I think Ohio,
• 35:18
  I'm going to give to the Democrats.
• 35:21
  Uh,
• 35:21
  in a lean Democratic capacity.
• 35:23
  Again,
• 35:24
  these are all very close races
• 35:25
  and races that honestly,
• 35:26
  I don't,
• 35:27
  I,
• 35:27
  you know,
• 35:28
  they're so,
• 35:28
  they're too close for comfort.
• 35:29
  I do have a position
• 35:30
  on,
• 35:31
  uh,
• 35:31
  Ohio,
• 35:32
  um,
• 35:32
  a relatively decent one on Sherrod Brown.
• 35:34
  He is the MVP of my Senate fantasy team,
• 35:36
  even though I'm not happy with that result,
• 35:38
  uh,
• 35:38
  but that is,
• 35:39
  uh,
• 35:39
  that's where we are.
• 35:40
  OK.
• 35:40
  Next up,
• 35:41
  let's go to Michigan.
• 35:43
  Michigan,
• 35:43
  El Syed,
• 35:44
  and
• 35:44
  Uh,
• 35:45
  going up,
• 35:45
  going up against,
• 35:46
  uh,
• 35:46
  Mike Rogers.
• 35:47
  I should also mention in Ohio,
• 35:48
  the Ramaswamy thing.
• 35:50
  I don't know how that's gonna play out,
• 35:51
  um,
• 35:51
  when it comes to the gubernatorial race.
• 35:53
  I,
• 35:53
  I think he's the underdog,
• 35:54
  but I do think that also may hurt
• 35:56
  Houston a little bit in the state,
• 35:57
  uh,
• 35:58
  as people kind of,
• 35:58
  you know,
• 35:59
  get angry about an ad.
• 36:01
  OK,
• 36:01
  Michigan,
• 36:02
  El Sayed,
• 36:03
  uh,
• 36:03
  I think El Sayed going against Rodgers.
• 36:05
  Huge poll,
• 36:05
  as I mentioned,
• 36:06
  the late,
• 36:07
  the late polling for El Sayyed was massive.
• 36:09
  I don't think the endorsement is gonna have too much of an impact.
• 36:12
  Most,
• 36:13
  about half the people have voted already
• 36:14
  in the state.
• 36:15
  I do think El Sayed will actually win this,
• 36:17
  and I cannot believe that a person like El Sayed is gonna go into our Senate,
• 36:20
  but like this is what the country is right now,
• 36:22
  I suppose.
• 36:23
  Uh,
• 36:23
  El Sayyed,
• 36:23
  lean Democrat for Ma.
• 36:25
  Maine,
• 36:27
  so real,
• 36:27
  and we're getting into the real tough territory here.
• 36:29
  Maine,
• 36:30
  Susan Collins
• 36:31
  has been able to do this over and over again.
• 36:33
  And I've been thinking about this race a lot.
• 36:35
  I have a position on Susan Collins to win it.
• 36:37
  Um,
• 36:38
  and I,
• 36:39
  I
• 36:40
  have felt good about that,
• 36:41
  not necessarily for her to win,
• 36:43
  but her to
• 36:44
  have value in the low 30s,
• 36:46
  which is where I bought it.
• 36:48
  Um,
• 36:48
  let's see if I can figure out where she is now.
• 36:50
  Uh,
• 36:51
  let's see.
• 36:52
  Right now,
• 36:52
  that market has it at,
• 36:55
  uh,
• 36:55
  7327,
• 36:57
  uh,
• 36:58
  um,
• 36:58
  the favorite of Jackson.
• 36:59
  That has moved quite a bit in the last week.
• 37:02
  I,
• 37:02
  uh,
• 37:03
  don't.
• 37:04
  I don't,
• 37:05
  I don't,
• 37:05
  I think,
• 37:05
  you know what I,
• 37:06
  I kept coming back to as I was thinking about this was something from the primaries.
• 37:10
  A lot of people told me over and over again
• 37:11
  that Thomas Massey was gonna be able to win his,
• 37:13
  his,
• 37:14
  uh,
• 37:14
  race because he's done it so many times and he's always,
• 37:17
  there's always been criticism and
• 37:18
  at the last minute,
• 37:19
  he always winds up winning it somehow.
• 37:20
  And I,
• 37:21
  I,
• 37:21
  you know,
• 37:22
  I,
• 37:22
  I,
• 37:22
  there's a reason to believe that argument is true.
• 37:25
  I think this is the one that catches up with,
• 37:26
  with Collins.
• 37:27
  She has outperformed many,
• 37:29
  many times.
• 37:30
  Um,
• 37:31
  but this is a,
• 37:32
  a different environment,
• 37:33
  and I think this race will go to lean Democrat
• 37:36
  for Susan Collins.
• 37:39
  Iowa,
• 37:40
  again,
• 37:41
  these,
• 37:41
  these are all so close.
• 37:42
  I don't know.
• 37:42
  Iowa,
• 37:42
  Ashley Hinson,
• 37:43
  Josh Turrick,
• 37:44
  um,
• 37:44
  this is a candidate,
• 37:45
  this is a situation where the Republicans probably have the better candidate.
• 37:48
  This is not a candidate quality issue
• 37:50
  in Iowa.
• 37:51
  Um,
• 37:52
  I can't believe this is close.
• 37:53
  I,
• 37:53
  this is one of my favorite picks leading into this election.
• 37:56
  I,
• 37:56
  I,
• 37:56
  you know,
• 37:56
  I'm always honest with you.
• 37:57
  If I'm gonna lose these races,
• 37:58
  uh,
• 37:58
  uh,
• 37:59
  you know,
• 37:59
  I'll tell you about it.
• 38:00
  If when I,
• 38:01
  when the markets did not move the way that I thought they would,
• 38:03
  I will tell you about it.
• 38:04
  Ashley Hinson,
• 38:05
  uh,
• 38:06
  right now is a
• 38:07
  48% underdog to 52%,
• 38:10
  um,
• 38:10
  for,
• 38:10
  uh,
• 38:11
  Josh Turk when it comes to the prediction markets.
• 38:13
  I'm gonna buck that trend a little bit here and I'm gonna go with Ashley Hinson.
• 38:16
  I'm gonna stay with my gut in this race.
• 38:18
  I think Republicans will get out there and get her across the finish line barely.
• 38:21
  I think they'll probably lose the gubernatorial race,
• 38:23
  but I think they squeak it out here.
• 38:25
  Uh,
• 38:26
  Kansas.
• 38:28
  Yeah.
• 38:31
  Look,
• 38:31
  I think
• 38:31
  the problem here with Kansas,
• 38:33
  if you're a Republican,
• 38:34
  is that,
• 38:34
  uh,
• 38:35
  Marshall just isn't a great candidate.
• 38:37
  Uh,
• 38:37
  he has not done a good job.
• 38:38
  He's not run a very good race.
• 38:40
  It's been very weird behind the scenes from everything I've heard.
• 38:42
  He's not great in the debates.
• 38:44
  He's not great on camera.
• 38:45
  He,
• 38:45
  the ads aren't great.
• 38:46
  Like it's just,
• 38:47
  I,
• 38:47
  I,
• 38:47
  I,
• 38:48
  this is a very winnable race that they're,
• 38:49
  I think they're gonna wind up losing.
• 38:51
  And the reason for that is Hamilton.
• 38:53
  is a good enough speaker.
• 38:54
  He's a great communicator.
• 38:55
  He's a mega church pastor,
• 38:56
  and I,
• 38:57
  as hard as it to believe that a Democrat would go to Kansas,
• 38:59
  or Kansas would go to a Democrat.
• 39:01
  That's where I'm putting it.
• 39:02
  I'm putting it in the lean Democratic category here.
• 39:06
  And it's hard for me to believe,
• 39:07
  I,
• 39:07
  by the way,
• 39:08
  have a position on Marshall.
• 39:09
  It's not a big one.
• 39:11
  Took it a long time ago,
• 39:12
  really thought he would hold on to that,
• 39:13
  but honestly,
• 39:14
  that's where my gut is right now is that he's gonna wind up losing.
• 39:17
  And finally,
• 39:17
  we go to Texas.
• 39:19
  I'm in Texas.
• 39:20
  I've watched all the ads.
• 39:21
  I feel,
• 39:21
  I feel the race every single day.
• 39:23
  Every single time you go to commercial,
• 39:24
  it's like Flem Lasky,
• 39:25
  Velveeta all over again,
• 39:27
  commercials back and forth,
• 39:28
  fighting with each other,
• 39:29
  going back and forth.
• 39:30
  It's just ridiculous.
• 39:32
  That to be said,
• 39:33
  uh,
• 39:34
  It's hard to believe
• 39:36
  that Ken Paxton could lose this race.
• 39:37
  If he did,
• 39:38
  between him and El Sayed,
• 39:40
  if,
• 39:40
  if either one of these guys loses the race,
• 39:41
  they will be studied for generations as to how to blow
• 39:44
  a Senate race,
• 39:45
  and Ham Marshall will be in that conversation too.
• 39:47
  Right now,
• 39:48
  overwhelming favorite is Tallarico,
• 39:50
  uh,
• 39:50
  to win Texas.
• 39:51
  He is a 74% favorite,
• 39:54
  26% chance for Paxton
• 39:56
  to win.
• 39:57
  My entire thesis on this race,
• 39:58
  and I had an,
• 39:59
  I had a,
• 39:59
  a position on this,
• 40:00
  which I have been shrinking over the over time.
• 40:03
  That
• 40:03
  there is no way Texas is gonna do this.
• 40:06
  I just can't imagine it.
• 40:08
  But what kind of convinced me on this is the Republican freak out index
• 40:11
  where the #1,
• 40:13
  um,
• 40:14
  state for all these negative effects for Republicans,
• 40:16
  tariffs,
• 40:17
  uh,
• 40:17
  younger voters,
• 40:18
  Hispanic voters,
• 40:19
  um,
• 40:20
  uh,
• 40:20
  you know,
• 40:20
  uh,
• 40:21
  gas prices,
• 40:21
  diesel,
• 40:22
  all this stuff.
• 40:23
  The #1 state with the most impact from those bad features for Republicans is Texas.
• 40:27
  Texas and Michigan are the two top ones.
• 40:29
  Uh,
• 40:29
  Iowa's by like 6,
• 40:30
  by the way.
• 40:31
  Um,
• 40:31
  all that to be said is,
• 40:32
  I think
• 40:33
  at the end of the day,
• 40:34
  as crazy as it sounds,
• 40:35
  I think Texas winds up going to Tallarico.
• 40:38
  Uh,
• 40:38
  I don't like it.
• 40:39
  I'm going to be very annoyed for six years about it.
• 40:43
  But I think that's where it goes.
• 40:45
  None of those I feel anything in the lean column,
• 40:47
  I do not feel massively confident about.
• 40:49
  I could see them going either way.
• 40:51
  Um,
• 40:52
  but that's where I see.
• 40:52
  Now,
• 40:53
  where are we now,
• 40:54
  Adam,
• 40:54
  let's scroll up to the top and see what our count is.
• 40:56
  Final count,
• 40:57
  wow,
• 40:58
  53 Democrats,
• 41:00
  47 Republicans.
• 41:02
  That's my feel.
• 41:03
  If you think I'm an idiot,
• 41:04
  I get it,
• 41:05
  and that's OK.
• 41:05
  You think I've been,
• 41:06
  uh,
• 41:07
  I'm,
• 41:07
  I'm utilized for the,
• 41:09
  uh,
• 41:09
  for the Democrats,
• 41:10
  if you think I'm being utilized for the Republicans,
• 41:13
  whatever you think,
• 41:14
  it's OK.
• 41:14
  The great thing about prediction markets is you can just
• 41:16
  go on with your money and make it and put,
• 41:18
  take your stance.
• 41:19
  Go for it.
• 41:20
  Put your money where your mouth is and go take my money,
• 41:23
  cause some of those positions I've got money on,
• 41:26
  and you can go be my counterparty if you like.
• 41:28
  Um,
• 41:29
  but
• 41:29
  that's what I feel.
• 41:30
  That's,
• 41:30
  you know,
• 41:31
  again,
• 41:31
  these are gut check things.
• 41:32
  If,
• 41:32
  when it comes to prediction markets,
• 41:33
  I'd like to stay out of those columns completely.
• 41:35
  I don't want the risk.
• 41:36
  Uh,
• 41:37
  but
• 41:37
  when it comes to having to put my money where
• 41:39
  my mouth is to put these things into categories,
• 41:41
  that's where I have it.
• 41:42
  Democrats,
• 41:42
  53,
• 41:43
  Republicans,
• 41:43
  47.
• 41:44
  Back in a minute.
• 41:56
  OK,
• 41:57
  so let me go through a few of the gubernatorial races here quickly.
• 42:00
  Um,
• 42:01
  Texas,
• 42:01
  I think
• 42:02
  Abbott holds on to Texas.
• 42:04
  Um,
• 42:05
  and I'm gonna say the same thing about Florida.
• 42:06
  I think the Republicans hold on to both of those races.
• 42:09
  Uh,
• 42:10
  in,
• 42:10
  uh,
• 42:10
  Florida,
• 42:11
  it would be Donald's,
• 42:12
  uh,
• 42:12
  to win.
• 42:13
  They're very,
• 42:13
  very close.
• 42:14
  There is massive profit to be made in those two markets if those are right.
• 42:18
  I mean,
• 42:18
  you're talking,
• 42:18
  you know,
• 42:19
  67% profit in a day.
• 42:21
  On those.
• 42:22
  I'm nervous about both of them at some level.
• 42:24
  I'm less nervous about Florida than Texas,
• 42:27
  um,
• 42:28
  which is weird cause I think,
• 42:30
  you know,
• 42:30
  it's,
• 42:30
  uh,
• 42:30
  you know,
• 42:31
  Greg Abbott's been the governor of Texas for like 100 years.
• 42:34
  Um,
• 42:34
  but
• 42:35
  it's because of the way that everything else is breaking.
• 42:37
  I think there's a,
• 42:38
  a good firewall for Florida and,
• 42:40
  and that's certainly where my money is,
• 42:41
  where my mouth is on that one.
• 42:43
  Iowa,
• 42:43
  I think,
• 42:44
  uh,
• 42:45
  I think Sand probably holds that one.
• 42:47
  and Oregon,
• 42:48
  I think Kottech holds it.
• 42:49
  So just those are races that you've been paying attention to.
• 42:52
  As far as the house goes,
• 42:54
  um,
• 42:55
  And by the way,
• 42:56
  if you have any other requests on this,
• 42:57
  you go to predictableShow.com,
• 42:58
  drop it in the in the chat,
• 42:59
  and I'll try to answer as many comments,
• 43:00
  uh,
• 43:00
  if I have,
• 43:01
  if I've left the race out.
• 43:02
  As far as the House goes,
• 43:04
  I think the Democrats will win the House.
• 43:06
  I think they will win the Senate.
• 43:07
  Um,
• 43:08
  I think they will win the House
• 43:09
  with a.
• 43:11
  Significant,
• 43:12
  but not like massive mega tsunami type margin.
• 43:16
  So,
• 43:16
  uh,
• 43:16
  218 is the break-even point for this.
• 43:19
  I have the,
• 43:20
  the,
• 43:20
  the Democrats getting to 237,
• 43:22
  which is pretty high actually.
• 43:24
  Higher than I thought I was gonna be on it.
• 43:26
  I toyed around with 233.
• 43:28
  At some level,
• 43:28
  you're just kind of making up numbers at this point,
• 43:30
  but I'm going with 237.
• 43:32
  It's a little high,
• 43:33
  and I think it's
• 43:34
  possibly too high,
• 43:36
  but that's what I'm gonna go.
• 43:37
  237 in the house
• 43:39
  as my number.
• 43:39
  If you want one long shot race,
• 43:41
  Let me give you one long shot.
• 43:42
  We're looking for something under,
• 43:44
  let's say,
• 43:45
  you know,
• 43:45
  35% or so,
• 43:46
  you know,
• 43:47
  less than 1 in 3 chance.
• 43:48
  If I'm gonna pick one of those.
• 43:50
  I'm gonna pick
• 43:51
  uh
• 43:52
  Janu.
• 43:53
  No Janu
• 43:54
  is good Jane,
• 43:56
  like Amanda Jane,
• 43:58
  and she is,
• 43:59
  I don't know what that reference is from,
• 44:00
  but something from my childhood.
• 44:01
  Anyway,
• 44:02
  it's Gary Gnu,
• 44:03
  um.
• 44:05
  She is the
• 44:07
  Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Vermont,
• 44:09
  and you're like,
• 44:09
  wait a minute,
• 44:09
  does Vermont have,
• 44:10
  they have a Republican actually,
• 44:11
  very popular Republican,
• 44:13
  wins usually by 30 or 40 points.
• 44:14
  I'm worried about this one for him this time though.
• 44:16
  If I were him,
• 44:16
  I'd be worried.
• 44:17
  He's like,
• 44:18
  last I saw like 27%,
• 44:19
  so there's your long shot pick,
• 44:21
  uh,
• 44:21
  if you wanna throw a little bit of money that you can,
• 44:22
  you can maybe lose.
• 44:23
  OK,
• 44:24
  gonna take a break.
• 44:25
  Back in a second.
• 44:35
  6:45 Eastern time,
• 44:36
  we start our election coverage,
• 44:37
  PredictableShow.com,
• 44:38
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• 44:39
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• 44:39
  Find us and join us.
• 44:41
  If you've ever had a moment on election night
• 44:43
  where you're sitting there looking at the numbers and you're like,
• 44:44
  gosh,
• 44:45
  but I see what they are now,
• 44:46
  but where are they gonna move?
• 44:47
  Are they gonna get more Democratic or are they gonna get more Republican?
• 44:50
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• 44:51
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• 44:54
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• 44:56
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• 44:58
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• 44:59
  Can we show this real quick?
• 45:00
  This is what it looks like.
• 45:01
  Let's win election night,
• 45:02
  an election guide to,
• 45:03
  uh,
• 45:03
  winning the results.
• 45:04
  If you scroll down to this first graph,
• 45:05
  uh,
• 45:06
  let's pick a state like,
• 45:06
  let's pick Ohio.
• 45:07
  You'll see these graphs kind of draw in as we go.
• 45:10
  Um,
• 45:11
  these are results from previous years by time.
• 45:14
  They show you exactly
• 45:15
  where it starts out in Ohio,
• 45:17
  for example,
• 45:18
  more Democratic and moves the other way.
• 45:20
  Important information to know for election
• 45:22
  results and prediction markets for sure.
• 45:24
  That's all the time we have.
• 45:25
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• 45:26
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• 45:27
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• 45:28
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• 45:29
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