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Can Trump and Iran control Israel and Hezbollah? · The Front

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: From the Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
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  Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, June sixteenth, twenty twenty six. The Albaneze government
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  Speaker 1: is looking at more cost of living relief in readiness
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  Speaker 1: for the fuel excise discount to expire in just weeks.
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  Speaker 1: The government wants to position itself as offering practical solutions
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  Speaker 1: to counteract the populist sentiment driving a boom in support
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  Speaker 1: for one nation. That story's live now at the Australian
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  Speaker 1: dot Com dot u. As Donald Trump announces he's sorted
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  Speaker 1: the Iran Israel US conflict, we dig through the details
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  Speaker 1: yet to be agreed. Plus, where does this leave Iran's
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  Speaker 1: terror proxies Hesbalah and Hamas in their war against Israel.
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  Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is here. In just a moment, you'll hear
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  Speaker 1: some Donald Trump's social posts. In this episode, we couldn't
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  Speaker 1: resist bringing to life with AI.
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  Speaker 2: Ships of the world. Start your engines, let the oil flow.
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  Speaker 2: The deal has been done.
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  Speaker 1: There's no deal. There's a memorand of understanding to talk
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  Speaker 1: about a deal. I mean, there is a sense of hope.
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  Speaker 1: But we have been here before.
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  Speaker 3: President Trump said, he asked Israeli Prime Minister Netanyah, who
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  Speaker 3: what the expletive are you doing on a call after
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  Speaker 3: the Israeli strikes against Beirure Because the IRGC, remember they're
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  Speaker 3: sitting on a lot of money.
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  Speaker 1: They can sum.
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  Speaker 3: Reports also claim Natania was not briefed on the negotiations
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  Speaker 3: and reportedly had to seek details from contacts inside the
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  Speaker 3: Trump administration.
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  Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is the Australian's chief international correspondent, and Cameron
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  Speaker 1: on Monday morning Australian Time, we suddenly had an announcement
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  Speaker 1: of something that I feel like we've heard a few
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  Speaker 1: times before, but maybe this is going to be different.
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump and Iran saying that they've agreed to a
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  Speaker 1: new ceasefire, which seems to be closer to peace than
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  Speaker 1: we've been before since this conflict started in February. The
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  Speaker 1: key point seems to be the Straight of Hall War
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  Speaker 1: was Donald Trump says he's negotiated a permanent, toll free
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  Speaker 1: reopening of the Straight of Hall wares. He even said
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  Speaker 1: ships start your engines, which seemed kind of optimistic. But
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  Speaker 1: the very fact that we're talking about tolls here, does
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  Speaker 1: that suggest to you that Iran now thinks that it
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  Speaker 1: owns the Straight of holl Wors Well.
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  Speaker 2: I think that was a key point in the negotiations around.
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  Speaker 2: Initially has said many times over it's going to open
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  Speaker 2: the Straight of holl Wors on its own terms, and
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  Speaker 2: we never quite knew exactly what that meant, but presumably tolls.
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  Speaker 2: Donald Trump says it's going to open to our free
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  Speaker 2: I mean, this is a really interesting deal that's been arranged,
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  Speaker 2: clear because it's a approach. First of all, the strata
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  Speaker 2: fans will be opened, according to both Donald Trump and Iran,
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  Speaker 2: and the US blockade and Iranian ports will be lifted.
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  Speaker 2: That's the key first point here. And there's a few
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  Speaker 2: disputed media reports about whether after sixty days they have
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  Speaker 2: to negotiate the issue of tolls. Again, Donald Trump doesn't
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  Speaker 2: seem to think so. He seems to think it's open
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  Speaker 2: and as you say, you know, start the ships and
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  Speaker 2: let the oil flow. But this is fundamentally that aspect
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  Speaker 2: of the deal is obviously very good news for Australia,
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  Speaker 2: for Australians, for farmers in Wogga Woga, everyone who's been
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  Speaker 2: impacted by the global energy prices. The market reaction was
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  Speaker 2: pretty spoke about that in volumes. That's the first part
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  Speaker 2: of the deal, but gee, there's a lot to go
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  Speaker 2: after that.
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  Speaker 1: The next part of it, of course, is going to
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  Speaker 1: be negotiations over nuclear weapons. And this was the justification
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump gave in the first place for starting this
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  Speaker 1: conflict with Iran. He said Iran can never have a
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  Speaker 1: nuclear weapon, and that under their previous deal with former
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  Speaker 1: President Obama, they were very close to obtaining a nuclear weapon,
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  Speaker 1: despite all their assurances to the contrary. What do we
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  Speaker 1: think about exactly how close Iran has got to a
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  Speaker 1: nuclear weapon and whether this is going to change anything now?
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  Speaker 2: Well, certainly they're nuclear ambitions. I mean, they have got
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  Speaker 2: nuclear ambitions, I think. I mean, no one really doubts
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  Speaker 2: that they claim they don't. But though they've been enriching
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  Speaker 2: uranium at fairly fast speed, and they've got quite a
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  Speaker 2: store of very highly enriched uranium that's not far from
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  Speaker 2: weapons grade. And that's what the Americans want to get
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  Speaker 2: out of Iran as part of their big deal. The
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  Speaker 2: Americans want that, and they want a moratorium on all
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  Speaker 2: enrichment for ten to fifteen years. That's what they want.
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  Speaker 2: I don't think they'll get that from Iran. What's happened
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  Speaker 2: here with this deal is that they've got sixty days
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  Speaker 2: to negotiate a nuclear deal. Now, the fact that Uran
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  Speaker 2: says willing to go into negotiations on nuclear deal is
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  Speaker 2: a good thing in itself, but it's certainly no guarantee
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  Speaker 2: that the Americans will get what they want. Fact, you
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  Speaker 2: would think Iran would play very hard ball on this,
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  Speaker 2: especially if they fear that Donald Trump is not going
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  Speaker 2: to carry out his ultimate threat, which is to start
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  Speaker 2: the war again in sixty days if they don't come
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  Speaker 2: to the party on the nuclear deal. I think Iran
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  Speaker 2: knows that that's very unlikely that Trump would do that.
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  Speaker 2: So this will be fascinating and hugely important to see
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  Speaker 2: where this goes as far as the nuclear negotiations go,
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  Speaker 2: because Claire, you know, politically, Trump needs this to be
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  Speaker 2: a stronger deal than was the twenty fifteen Barack Obama
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  Speaker 2: negotiated deal, and really, if he doesn't get that, he
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  Speaker 2: will be criticized across the board. And he knows that.
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  Speaker 2: So he's going to play hardball there. But you wonder
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  Speaker 2: how many cars he's got to play with this, you
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  Speaker 2: really do.
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump said in a post on truth Social that
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  Speaker 1: no money will exchange hands, but that at the appropriate time,
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  Speaker 1: when all is calm, we will go in and get
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  Speaker 1: what he called the nuclear dust buried deep under the
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  Speaker 1: powerful Sonken Granite mountains, thanks to our beautiful B two bombers,
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  Speaker 1: and they're brilliant pilots and downblend and destroy it, whether
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  Speaker 1: in Iran or in the United States. And we don't
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  Speaker 1: have any confirmation of that from Iran, do we.
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  Speaker 2: No, But that's been the assumption, working assumption of the
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  Speaker 2: Pentagon has been that that is where it is. It's
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  Speaker 2: trapped underground there. The entrance to that facility was destroyed
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  Speaker 2: in June last year when the joint US Israeli strikes occurred,
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  Speaker 2: and Trump has been pondering a sort of special forces
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  Speaker 2: operation to send in their pride to this agreement, to
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  Speaker 2: send in there and actually try and get that out,
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  Speaker 2: and the Iranians have been actually putting BB traps around
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  Speaker 2: there to try and prevent the Americans considering that concept.
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  Speaker 2: So Trump decided against doing that. He now wants to
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  Speaker 2: clear that uranium enrichment supply through negotiation with Iran. So
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  Speaker 2: that's going to be a key point because I think
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  Speaker 2: if Iran doesn't agree to remove that then that's a
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  Speaker 2: very big loss for Trump in negotiations. That's a key
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  Speaker 2: sticking point for the US and Iran It's one of
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  Speaker 2: those sticking points, frankly, Claire, where there's a lot of
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  Speaker 2: points at this agreement that could go wrong. That's one
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  Speaker 2: of them. Moratorium on enrichment is one of them as well.
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  Speaker 2: So there's all sorts of fraught issues with the nucleid deal,
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  Speaker 2: and that's not the only part that could go wrong.
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  Speaker 1: Trump is saying that no money will exchange hands, but
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  Speaker 1: in the news outlets that have been briefed directly by
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  Speaker 1: him on his eightieth birthday, incidentally, he is saying, well,
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  Speaker 1: they are reporting that there's going to be sanctions relief
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  Speaker 1: and the release of frozen Iranian funds as part of
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  Speaker 1: the negotiations that we're now going to see. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: what's the difference between that and money exchanging hands? And
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  Speaker 1: isn't that one of the critiques that Donald Trump had
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  Speaker 1: of the deal that Barack Obama made.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is definitely going to be to be. The
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  Speaker 2: Iranians wouldn't have signed this without getting sanctions reliefs and
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  Speaker 2: assets unfrozen, which is worth billions and billions of dollars
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  Speaker 2: to them. The key point here, and there's been mixed
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  Speaker 2: media reporting on this at this point in time as
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  Speaker 2: we're recording, and that is that when are they going
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  Speaker 2: to be released? Because the Iranians wanted upfront as part
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  Speaker 2: of the deal to actually sign this agreement, and the
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  Speaker 2: Americans have said, well, hold it, We're going to wait
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  Speaker 2: till we see what you deliver on the nuclear front
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  Speaker 2: before we unlock everything. So it may well be a
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  Speaker 2: sliding scar, but that's a pretty key thing because I
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  Speaker 2: think Donald Trump will really want and you can understand this,
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  Speaker 2: he will really want to keep a lot of assets
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  Speaker 2: frozen to try and leverage the Iranians on the nuclear
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  Speaker 2: deal because he hasn't got a lot else to leverage
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  Speaker 2: them on.
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  Speaker 1: Now, both Iran and the usay that Lebanon is involved
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  Speaker 1: in this memorandum of understanding. That that means that presumably
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  Speaker 1: conflict between Hesbelah, the Iran backed militia in Lebanon, and
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  Speaker 1: Israel is going to stop. Now. It's not really clear
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  Speaker 1: whether the Israelis are agreeing to this, though in the
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  Speaker 1: hours before the deal was signed, Israel was striking Hesbela
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  Speaker 1: targets in Beirut and Iran seem to be preparing for
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  Speaker 1: a strike on Israel. What do you think about that, Cam,
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  Speaker 1: And how can Israel possibly agree not to strike Hesbela
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  Speaker 1: in future given that Hesbela has been st striking them
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  Speaker 1: basically NonStop for over the past year. Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: A fascinating part of this agreement, according to the Pakistani
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  Speaker 2: Prime Minister, is that all parties, including involving Lebanon, have
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  Speaker 2: agreed to cease fire, now have they? Because Israel is
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  Speaker 2: not party to this agreement. Obviously Hesbelah is not either,
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  Speaker 2: and we've seen them a trading blows and firing for
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  Speaker 2: a long time now. For even just hours before the
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  Speaker 2: peace deal was announced, Hesbela a lobson missiles over into
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  Speaker 2: northern Israel. Israel responded with a bombing strike on Beay Route,
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  Speaker 2: So you can see the tensions there are absolutely palpable
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  Speaker 2: at this minute. And the great I think probably the
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  Speaker 2: biggest single danger to this deal is going to be
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  Speaker 2: whether Israel restrains itself in attacking Hesbela and conversely, whether
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  Speaker 2: Hesbeala restrains itself in attacking Israel. And the interesting thing
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  Speaker 2: here is that two key players have a big role.
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  Speaker 2: The first one with Israel is Donald Trump. Can Donald
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  Speaker 2: Trump restrain Nyahu from launching strikes on Lebanon, on Hezbelara
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  Speaker 2: and Ebanon, especially on Beirut and can Iran and Israan willing.
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  Speaker 2: People don't focus on this, but is Iran willing to
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  Speaker 2: actually strong arm its own terror proxy Hesbella and say
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  Speaker 2: do not fire at Israel, because that is the simplest
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  Speaker 2: way to peace here. Everyone focuses on what Israel's doing,
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  Speaker 2: but I mean the simplest way to piece is for
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  Speaker 2: Iran to actually tell it so terror proxy, do not fire.
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  Speaker 2: And so both of those factors are going to be
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  Speaker 2: critical to see whether the Lebanon front in this peace
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  Speaker 2: deal holds.
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  Speaker 1: The other terror proxy or one of the other terror
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  Speaker 1: proxies that Iran has is Hamas in Gaza, and the
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  Speaker 1: conflict between Hamas and Israel is still raging. Six people
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  Speaker 1: died over the weekend. Hamas says that more than seventy
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  Speaker 1: thousand Palestinians, including civilians and combatants, have died since the
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  Speaker 1: last ceasfire was signed in October twenty twenty five, when
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump said that he had brought peace to the
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  Speaker 1: Middle East. At least five is soldiers have died since
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: then in conflict in Gaza. That doesn't give us much
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  Speaker 1: hope though, as it can that another piece deal that
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump says that he's arranged can actually hold because Israel,
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  Speaker 1: says Har mass has not stopped fighting.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, it's been extraordinary in the Middle East since
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  Speaker 2: the terrible massacre on October seven of israelies. The focus
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  Speaker 2: has been first on Gaza for many, many months, and
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  Speaker 2: then now on Iran, and then on Lebanon, and now
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  Speaker 2: it's probably going to go back after this from Lebanon
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  Speaker 2: and also to Gaza again. It's swinging around, and you're
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  Speaker 2: absolutely right. In Gaza has been no solution. Her Massa
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  Speaker 2: has refused to disarm. It's unclear exactly what the demands
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  Speaker 2: are for them to completely disarm. But meanwhile Israel has
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  Speaker 2: moved the yellow line, the marker halfway between Gaza more
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  Speaker 2: towards the Hamas, and so Israel now controls I think,
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  Speaker 2: around about sixty percent of Gaza, and so at the
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  Speaker 2: moment that's just been a forgotten negotiation. But I think
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  Speaker 2: now with this piece deal with Iran, the focus, as
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  Speaker 2: you suggest, will go back to Gaza. But that is
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  Speaker 2: a completely unfinished part of the broader peace plan, and
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  Speaker 2: I think it's fair to be quite skeptical as to
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  Speaker 2: whether we're ever going to get a resolution on that.
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  Speaker 1: You've covered a lot of conflicts, cam you've of course
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  Speaker 1: been covering this one very closely in the Middle East
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  Speaker 1: over the past few years. What's your reaction when you
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: hear news of a so called peace deal? Does your
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: kind of heart sink? Can you think are here we
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  Speaker 1: go again? Or do you feel optimistic about this one.
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  Speaker 2: I'm optimistic about this one. In relation to the US
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  Speaker 2: and Iran that part of it. I think Iran doesn't
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  Speaker 2: want to go back to war, even though they've got
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  Speaker 2: control over the straight up film was and they could
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  Speaker 2: get it again if they wanted. I don't think Trump
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  Speaker 2: definitely does not want to go back to war. So
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  Speaker 2: I'm fairly confident that that will be a lasting peace situation,
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  Speaker 2: even if the Ashlan negotiated outcome remains uncertain. I'm less
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  Speaker 2: confident about Israel and Hezbellah in Lebanon. I think that's
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  Speaker 2: an intractable issue that still is not very close to
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  Speaker 2: a resolution, especially with Benjaminett and Yaho in power, because
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  Speaker 2: he's put Israeli true hops in Southern Lebanon on the ground,
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  Speaker 2: that's a very difficult situation to imagine a lasting piece
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  Speaker 2: under those circumstances, and as you say, Gaza is absolutely unresolved.
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  Speaker 2: I have very little hope unfortunately for a resolution there
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  Speaker 2: because Hamas does not look like it wants to play
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  Speaker 2: ball with disarmament and that is a deal breaker.
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  Speaker 1: Well, I'm sure we'll talk about it again. Thanks Ken Pleasure.
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  Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is The Australian's chief international correspondent. Check out
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  Speaker 1: all our coverage of this story right now at the
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  Speaker 1: Australian dot com dot au.