Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Fed Rate Cut in 24hrs🔥Crypto Market Update

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Fed Rate Cut in 24hrs🔥Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Twenty four hour countdown is upon us. The FED meeting
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: is probably going to be the most important FED meeting
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: we've ever seen in the history of the markets. My
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: name is Paul Baron. Welcome back into the show. You
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: guys are not going to want to miss this one.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: I do want to thank our sponsor, and that is Tangum.
• 0:14
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• 0:16
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• 0:35
  Speaker 2: It's going to give you a little bit of a
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: discount to get started.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Let's go over to the first tweet today and this
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: one is a big one. JP Morgan on the Federate cuts. Basically,
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: what they're saying is the Federate cuts come in with
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: the S and P five hundred within one percent of
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: an all time high, actually hitting all time high, and
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: it results in an average return of fifteen percent over
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: the next twelve months, So these are good signs. According
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: to the research, one month performance is more spotty. This
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: is where stocks ending around fifty percent of the time
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: lowering fifty percent of the time, and then history says
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: near term volatility after Wednesday's rate cut will be a
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: long term buying opportunity. So if you're looking long term,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: this may be the event for you, and other things
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: that you've got to consider right now. This is a
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: clip that kind of gets into how long will this
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: go in terms of a bull market.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: Here's tom late. Take a look.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: If it's mid cycle, that kind of implies maybe third,
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: fourth inning, maybe fifth that the latest is how you
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: see things for the strella.
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think some parts are later cycle,
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: like part of these the MAG seven trade, But I
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: do think AI still has many years to just propel
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: earning surprise and innovation and economic growth. So I don't
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: think it's late, like it's too late. It's not too
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: late to buy the MAG seven. But I think the
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: next leg of this is really the FED cutting helps
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: the ism get back above fifty, brings down mortgage rates,
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: so it's a cyclical broadening trade. And then I think,
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: you know, financials, I think are still important because I
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: think that they're going to rerate more like technology stocks.
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: Goldman and J Morgan are basically technology companies now, and
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: as they embrace the blockchain, they're going to become more
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: streamlined and less employee dependent, much more AI driven.
• 2:21
  Speaker 4: So I think there's a lot to look forward.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: To, all right, So very bullish signs coming out of
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Tom Leet would consider him right now the number one
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: investor there on Wall Street. If you look at what's
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: happening with the S and P five hundred, well it's hit.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: It's again another all time high above sixty six hundred
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: for the.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: First time ever.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: This is all happening when we're seeing a lot of
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: pressure on the economy. Other things that are happening right there,
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: is the economy now in a recession. That's the question
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: everybody's asking. Moody's is basically saying that it's a forty
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: eight percent probability of a recession in the next twelve months.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: This is the highest since twenty twenty. Such a high
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: reading has never occurred outside of an downtterm. Right now,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: what we're looking at is mostly the US job market,
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: which is already showing a lot of weakness. Question mark
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: will be how does this turn around if we do
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: see rate cuts coming in.
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: Other things that you got to look at.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Right here is the FED will cut rates in today's
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: JP Morgan says, this is an expectation they are looking
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: for the market to dump right before the reversal scenario.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: One Bitcoin could dump to around one oh four, which
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: would be before the reversal scenario. Two Bitcoin will dump
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: towards ninety two. Let me know what you guys think
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: if we're going to see those kinds of movements with
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: bitcoin trading around one fifteen early in the week, So
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: that would be a pretty consistent or I think position
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: that we've seen before. I don't say it's consistent, but
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: it's definitely happened in a cycle where we've seen these
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: FED rate cuts before, and also some of the pressure
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: that the FED puts on the rest of the markets.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: The other thing that's kind of an outlier is the
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: fact that we're seeing more credit crunt and this is
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: a good example.
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: Search is for help with mortgage.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: This surpasses the two thousand and eight housing crisis. This
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: is huge when you look at just credit in general,
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: but more importantly the housing market, which means, and it
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: goes back to my whole theory, is that this bull
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: run is the havelves versus the haves. What I mean
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: by that is we are not going to see retail
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: participating in the way that we have seen it before
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: in this cycle. It truly may be the haves versus
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: the has. Here's retail sales. We're strong in August, beating forecast.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: This is what gets a little weird. American consumers, especially
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: those at the top. This is the one percenters, the
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: two percenters. They're still spending, even on a lot of
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: discursionary things including eating outs, et cetera. But this could
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: change quickly if we see an acceleration.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: In white collar job layoffs.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: And I think that might be the phase in the
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: job portion of the economy that we are in. So
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: if we do see that, then yes, that could be
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: one of those main ticking points that would push over
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: into a very very heavy and struggling economy. Other things
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: you got to look at is we've been in a recession.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: This is what analyst saying since twenty twenty four, and
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: they've just been hiding it. I'm not saying that that
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: is the case, but I will say that there are
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: definitely markers if you look at the credit delinquencies, and
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: if you'd go back and watch my channel for a year.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: What I've been saying all along has been there are
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: job problems. The jobs are not going to be in
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: a good position. And now here we are a year later,
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: and what I think has been unfortunately a FED too late.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Had they started in early twenty twenty five, it might
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: have been deterred at least the job losses. The question
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: would be how far back would they have just started
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four if we weren't going to see
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: anything like this, And remember, the FED has a lot
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: of room. We are at the highest interest rates we've
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: been in a very very long time. But these credit
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: card delinquencies, this is a problem. And if you look
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: at this chart right here, we're going to see numbers
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: that we've seen since nineteen twenty nine. That's the kind
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: of debt that we're talking about right now.
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: So this is a big deal. Guys.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: If we are looking at a recession on the outset,
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: it is possibly more pressure on the lower side of
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: the economy, and that starts to preclude retail from coming in,
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: so just be aware of that. Other signs that this
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: is happening is Klarna. They ipo today and this is
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: a buy now, pay later kind of platform, but they
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: iPod at nineteen point seven billion. This company is one
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: of the more i would say more active innovators. But
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: right now the average user has three point active three
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: point eight active loans. This is crazy for me to
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: have three active loans of buy now, pay later. They're
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: even doing this now on groceries, and when it goes
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: to that level, I think that is a very very
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: big sign of what is to come. So be aware
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: of all of that. Now, how does this play out
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: in the bull run? How does this play out in
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: what we will see of the FED going in on
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: risk assets? I think it's still positive because of the
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: fact that we are looking at the dollar being debased
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: right in front of our eyes and the only way
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: out of this is going to be through digital assets.
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: I want to go to another clip here.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: This is Tom Lee talking about earnings and when they're
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: do take a look.
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: I actually think this is a great idea and let
• 7:21
  Speaker 4: me explain why first quarterly earnings drives short term thinking
• 7:26
  Speaker 4: by businesses. It's a ninety day business cycle, and as
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: you know, as clients of us, we tend to think
• 7:34
  Speaker 4: of multi year themes, but a company is forced to
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: play that out every ninety days. The second is that
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: privately held companies don't even have to report COULA results,
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: so it's creating a disadvantage for being publicly listed. I
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: would say, I don't know if that's what we want.
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: We don't want private companies to say they'd rather stay
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: private because they don't have to report earnings every three months.
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: Quarterly reporting is time consuming and expensive, assumes a lot
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: of time for a business, as the CFO sits in
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: a room, and it takes up a lot of time
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: for analysts, and I think it's important for people to
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: focus on the bigger story arc. So I'm supportive of
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: this move actually.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: All right, So that's where Tom Lee and I disagree.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: You look at the situation with privately held companies. Most
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: of those have investors. Those investors do expect reporse in
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: some cases they expect them monthly. But I think quarterly
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: is not something that is overburdening any kind of institution,
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: especially when you look at publicly traded institutions. Which you
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: need a lot more transparency. And that's where I think
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: I differ is I believe if you're publicly traded, you've
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: got to have that transparency. That's a crypto thing going forward.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: Whether or not we see Wall Street Wall Street, it's
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: a little bit different on how they're playing the game.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: But that is an issue that I'm just not on
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: the same boat with other things that are going on
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: right now is the US is in talks to set
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: up a five billion dollar fund to invest in rare
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: earth and mineral minding. Reason that's important because it could
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: slay into what's happening on both gold and also silver
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: right there. If you kind of look at the US
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: dollar and what's happening here, well, all of this is
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: starting to slide into guess what gold which is now
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: hitting all time high at thirty seven hundred and we
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: did a video yesterday on this point and this was
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: how long silver has been suppressed, which it's now starting
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: to hit around forty three bucks, which is possibly its
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: highest price in more than fourteen years. So we may
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: be on the cusp with something very big. If you
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: guys want to check out that video, just go over
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: to the channel right there. We had Andy Scheckman on
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: just yesterday to talk about this because it is interesting
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: it has a correlation to ethereum. But go check this
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: video out you'll kind of understand what I'm talking about.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Let's get into a further scenario that plays into this
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: is how high can Ethereum's price go after a fed
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Ray cut? If you take a look and go back
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: to even the Iranian attack. This is back in June
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: of this year. We saw that downward trend, and then
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: essentially what you had since that was let's just go
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: to the local high. That was another seventy five percent move.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: But if you go up here to high in July
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: and August, you had one hundred and fourteen percent move.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Now let's go from the same position of tariff day
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: two point zero and also an FOMC meeting and go
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: from that low to where we are on the high,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: and you're talking about a forty six percent move, So
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: not bad if you can tolerate these ups and downs
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: for ethereum. Do we get that kind of move because
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: we have had four days leading in to the FOMC meeting,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: which is where we are right now, very similar to
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: this right here, very similar to what we saw right there.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: So these kind of market pullbacks are healthy. It is
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: something that has been talked about before as well. In fact,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: the latest eight views from Mark Newton he hits on it.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: This pullback is what we should have gotten a week ago.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Don't suspect we'll undercut the prior lows around forty two hundred,
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: could get down to forty four, maybe forty three by
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: end of week.
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: And would that.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Pretty much kind of signify yes, by the dips. But
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: if ETH being in root to fifty five hundred in
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: mid October, that's where fun Strat which is bit Minor,
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: and Tom Lee and of course Mark Newton on where
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: he thinks Ethereum is going. Let me know in the
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: comments guys if you think Eth is going to hit
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: that number by mid October. And of course, if you
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: haven't subscribed to the show right now, just take a time.
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: And hit subscribe. It does help us out and we're
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: trying to become the number one.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Crypto show out there, so give us a little bit
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: of love. Black Rock also bought two hundred and sixty
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: million of bitcoin, but they also bought even more eth,
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: and they bought three hundred and sixty million of eath,
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: so this is something that is starting to move in
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: the right direction if you're an ETH holder. And also
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: I think in general just rotation, because this is typical
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: of how a lot of these kinds, both on whether
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: you look at traditional stock market stocks people rotating into midcaps,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: or you see what's happening here in the crypto are
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: is where we start seeing people rotate into of course
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: all coins. One other thing that I want to show
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: you is this right here token I stocks and if
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: you go in and look at what's happening, because what
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: we saw is Solona kind of leading the way right here,
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: and then right here on the second of September, the
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: explosion into ETH began.
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: And this is just the very beginning, guys.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: As because we did a video earlier it just showed
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: this first level and we've already seen a couple of
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: legs up on this, so it's very possible we could
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: see a considerably more movement more movement in ETH. So
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: be on the lookout for this because this, I think
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: is going to be a big deal for Ethereum in general.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: Going on to this, if you just take Eth on
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: the TVL continuing to climb a lot of people looking
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: at locking up this, and I think most people are
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: looking at yields as being a big factor. What we
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: will see as is playing into more of the DAK companies,
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: the digital asset treasuries as a strategy going forward, playing
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: into maybe an e all time high coming very soon.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: And whether or not we see a ten thousand dollars
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: eth or not, we are going to see a lot
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: of yields being.
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: Paid out out there for sure.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: If you want to get a beta play, one way
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: to go has always been uniewap, and if you look
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: at the L two volume on uniswap protocol right now,
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: it's close to setting a new yearly all time high.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: So that in itself is a good sign for unicewap.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: And I think as we see the ETH ecosystem expand,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: unicewap is going to be a beneficiary of that. Speaking
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: of unicewap, let's jump over to the chart real quick.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: I'm just looking at this zone. If this area holds
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: and you reverse this back out, this could be up
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: to another thirty percent retracement upward. If unie swap is
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: the beta play on what we could see on ethereum.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: So just pay attention to those things We've got a
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: lot moving in the markets, and I think this is
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: going to be a very critical time as the FOMC
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: meeting comes in tomorrow. Just as a reminder, we are
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: doing a big live stream tomorrow for you guys. This
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: is going to be a huge one. That's at two
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: thirty Eastern time. We'll most likely go on a head
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: of schedule, but be on the watch because this is
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: going to be significant whether we get the quarter basis
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: and how Powell responds into the next potential rate cuts.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: His statements in that press conference are going to be
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: critical in understanding where we are going. If you guys
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: are not subscribed to it right now, and if also
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: if you're not in the Diamond circle, make sure and
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: jump in on that. That's our own private group out there.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: I drop an email each week. It's one that you
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: guys want.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: To be a part of.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: It's absolutely free, So use the link down below, follow
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: me out there on X at Paul Baron. We'll catch
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: next time right here on the Paul Baron Show.