Latest / Best of Business / Sam Dickie: Fisher Funds expert on Donald Trump's tariffs being blocked by US federal court

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Sam Dickie: Fisher Funds expert on Donald Trump's tariffs being blocked by US federal court · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News talks'd be follow
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  Speaker 1: either dupe to see Ellen.
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  Speaker 2: More uncertainty obviously around Donald Trump's tariffs. What a repeating headline.
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  Speaker 2: A federal trade court in the US is today blocked
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  Speaker 2: his tariff's on nearly every country in the world. Sam
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  Speaker 2: Dickey from Fisher Funds has actually just come back from
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  Speaker 2: a few weeks in the US and is with us.
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  Speaker 3: A Sam got any here?
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  Speaker 2: So what do you know? I mean, are the tariffs
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  Speaker 2: off completely?
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  Speaker 1: Now?
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  Speaker 2: Are with that down to zero? What's going on?
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  Speaker 3: Definitely a stick in the spokes of Trump's tariff plan,
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  Speaker 3: and the market liked it a little bit, so stock
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  Speaker 3: market was up about one percent, but remember there was
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  Speaker 3: a strong and video result after market as well, so
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  Speaker 3: in the US dollar rallied a little bit. I mean,
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  Speaker 3: the White House appealed if it goes all the way
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  Speaker 3: to the Supreme Court, who knows there is a conservative majority.
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  Speaker 3: I just think it's another headline whipsaw.
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  Speaker 2: So at the moment, do we assume do we proceed
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  Speaker 2: as if? Like from New Zealand's perspective, do you think
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  Speaker 2: we proceed as if we're still got the ten percent
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  Speaker 2: on us.
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  Speaker 3: I think so, I think that's what I mean. That's
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  Speaker 3: the feedback from that. A lot of companies we got
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  Speaker 3: over there is their proceeding as though there's going to
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  Speaker 3: be this uncertainty will last for months and there will
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  Speaker 3: be tariffs at least at the headline rate.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, what are the people on the ground thinking about
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  Speaker 2: about this?
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  Speaker 3: There was a huge narrative shift while I was there.
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  Speaker 3: So if you remember when I first went over there,
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  Speaker 3: it was back in April, and you know, it was
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  Speaker 3: as simple as these policies are unhinged. It's doing irreparable
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  Speaker 3: damage to USA Inc. It's going to permanently impact our
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  Speaker 3: ability to be a trusted partner of Asia and Europe,
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  Speaker 3: and it's the end of US been an exceptional place
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  Speaker 3: to invest. Now by the end of the trip, similar people,
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  Speaker 3: So it's companies, industry experts, politicians were saying, he's a
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  Speaker 3: pretty smart negotiator, strong opening gambit, and he can expertly
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  Speaker 3: walk back from the brink. So it's another reminder the
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  Speaker 3: market is irrational from time to time, and sentiment swings
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  Speaker 3: with a breeze.
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  Speaker 2: So are you telling me that people have started to
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  Speaker 2: come around to the idea that maybe he's actually not
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  Speaker 2: doing something stupid.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I think most people agree that most of
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  Speaker 3: the things he's trying to do make sense. So it
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  Speaker 3: makes sense to cut the fat out of the federal
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  Speaker 3: government healthcare spinning, for example, twenty percent of GDP OECD
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  Speaker 3: average nine percent is a horrific amount of waste in there,
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  Speaker 3: you know. Stopping people pouring across the border unchecked, that
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  Speaker 3: probably makes sense. Trying to slow down the deficits and
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  Speaker 3: get the out of controlled debt under control. All these
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  Speaker 3: things make sense. But most people think his methods are
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  Speaker 3: a non politician like and a bit of ratic.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, that's the thing that's definitely freaking people out,
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  Speaker 2: isn't it.
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  Speaker 3: Now?
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  Speaker 2: Do we have any handle just yet on what the
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  Speaker 2: actual impact is going to be on global growth, on
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  Speaker 2: what the actual impact is going to be on inflation?
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  Speaker 2: Are we seeing this happen yet?
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  Speaker 3: So just rewinding too. Mid April, so economists thought the
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  Speaker 3: US economy would flirt with recession the second half, so
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  Speaker 3: growth would fall to around zero point five Percenters consumers
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  Speaker 3: like you and iron businesses set on their hands amidst
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  Speaker 3: the sort of extraordinary uncertainty. But being in the US,
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  Speaker 3: the best real time indicators of growth are credit card
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  Speaker 3: companies and rail companies. So we met MasterCard, for example,
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  Speaker 3: and they've got a brilliant bird's eye view of the
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  Speaker 3: US consumer, and they were telling us that the consumer
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  Speaker 3: was still solid as at early May. And then Warren
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  Speaker 3: Buffett said, if he disappeared to a desert island for
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  Speaker 3: five years, the key indicator he'd take to tell him
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  Speaker 3: the health of the US economy would be weekly rail data.
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  Speaker 3: And the rail companies we were meeting were saying that
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  Speaker 3: things were still strong as at early May. And on
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  Speaker 3: the inflation side, none of the companies are seen inflation
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  Speaker 3: show up yet. So we don't know why that is.
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  Speaker 3: Is it just because it's early days. Is it because
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  Speaker 3: importers have power over Asian suppliers and they're forcing suppliers
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  Speaker 3: to eat some of the terriffs by lowe or their prices.
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  Speaker 3: We don't know. It could be the calm before the storm,
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  Speaker 3: but so far, so good.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, So what does this mean for investors?
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  Speaker 3: The water's definitely slotted from the bearish end of the
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  Speaker 3: bathtub to the bullish end. So remember April eighth, the
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  Speaker 3: fear gauges. We track whereas bears as they've been in
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  Speaker 3: sort of quarter of a century, and there was just
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  Speaker 3: that indiscriminate selling. We talked about a great buy an
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  Speaker 3: opportunity for long term patient investors now the US market,
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  Speaker 3: and this is where the narrative shift came. It's up
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  Speaker 3: twenty five percent in six weeks, so the risks are
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  Speaker 3: more balanced. And I do think regardless of this court ruling,
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  Speaker 3: there's still a lot of water to go under the bridge.
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  Speaker 3: So I think while companies are not feeling the pinch yet,
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  Speaker 3: we should keep watching the space closely.
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  Speaker 2: Good stuff, Sam's always good to talk to you. Talk
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  Speaker 2: to you again soon. Look after yourself, Sam Dicky Fisher funds.
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