Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Forget the bear market, is Bitcoin about to EXPLODE?! | EP 1387

Transcript

Forget the bear market, is Bitcoin about to EXPLODE?! | EP 1387 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  While most people are confident Bitcoin just entered a bear
• 0:04
  market, I'm making the other case.
• 0:06
  Donald Trump just said something that suggests we could be about
• 0:11
  to explode. Trump just said that he's going
• 0:14
  to keep the stock market at all time high, absolutely crazy work
• 0:19
  in a quote UN quote free market. And this is of course happening
• 0:23
  with QT ending in a matter of days.
• 0:26
  And now we're getting some news of a new dovish Fed board member
• 0:30
  is coming by end of year. They're saying they're about to
• 0:33
  kind of pick the guy potentially end of December.
• 0:36
  And then as we covered this week, the biggest bank in the
• 0:39
  world is flipping bullish on Bitcoin.
• 0:42
  Did we just see the start of a new bear market or was that the
• 0:46
  biggest bear trap in Bitcoin history?
• 0:50
  All right, so we got a lot of news to cover.
• 0:51
  First of all, I will start with the Trump tweet just 'cause I, I
• 0:55
  think it's so ridiculous that you, it's just like insane to.
• 0:58
  I'm not alone. I do have with Chris Salimo with
• 1:00
  me today, Nico, guys, he's not hungover.
• 1:03
  He had some family things to deal with today.
• 1:05
  So it's me and Chris holding it down for you guys today.
• 1:09
  But here is the first tweet. It's just absolutely nuts to see
• 1:13
  this coming from Watcher Guru Justin.
• 1:16
  President Trump says he will keep the stock market at all
• 1:19
  time highs. Absolutely crazy work here.
• 1:22
  I know a lot of people are like the president doesn't control
• 1:25
  the markets guys. I don't think you understand how
• 1:28
  the S&P 500 in the stock market works.
• 1:30
  I would argue they are pretty rigged.
• 1:32
  So I don't think it's too crazy for him to say that he will
• 1:37
  actually do this. Now, there is another
• 1:39
  interesting little tidbit that I saw.
• 1:41
  It was really highly underreported.
• 1:44
  And I think part of the reason was because it seemed like an
• 1:47
  old clip. But Trump was just on 60 minutes
• 1:49
  and he said some very interesting things on Bitcoin,
• 1:52
  or rather crypto in particular. So I'm gonna play that clip for
• 1:54
  you guys, and then I'll go into the saga of why I think this was
• 1:59
  not the start of a bear market. I only care about one thing.
• 2:05
  Will crypto be, will we be #1 in crypto, crypto has turned out
• 2:09
  and in that sense, I've been right.
• 2:11
  Cryptos turned out to be a massive industry, if you want to
• 2:14
  call it that. And I'm very proud to say that
• 2:17
  we are far and away ahead of China and everybody else.
• 2:20
  Now. China's getting into it very big
• 2:22
  right now. If you want to go after people,
• 2:26
  you're going to kill that industry and it'll be very bad.
• 2:29
  Tremendous number of jobs. I campaigned positively on
• 2:33
  crypto very openly. I campaigned, Biden campaigned
• 2:37
  against it. When Biden found out that I was
• 2:40
  getting like 100% of the crypto vote, which was a lot, he
• 2:43
  switched totally and he went in favor of crypto.
• 2:46
  They went totally in favor. They had many people under
• 2:49
  indictment. They let them all go.
• 2:52
  They let them all go. You know that many people were
• 2:54
  under indictment. Biden was a corrupt president.
• 2:58
  Biden went all in on crypto at the very end because he thought
• 3:01
  he could get some votes. It didn't work.
• 3:03
  They voted for me. I want to make crypto great for
• 3:07
  America. That's the only thing.
• 3:08
  I don't want to have somebody else have crypto and have China
• 3:12
  be #1 in the world in crypto, because in crypto it's a kind of
• 3:16
  an industry where basically you're going to have #1 and
• 3:19
  you're not going to have a number 2.
• 3:21
  And right now we're number one by a long shot.
• 3:23
  I want to keep it that way. The same way we're number one
• 3:25
  with AI, we're number one with crypto.
• 3:28
  I don't want to keep it that way.
• 3:30
  And look, we're going to discuss here, we're going to pause here
• 3:33
  for a minute with Chris because I've been saying for a while, I
• 3:37
  think a lot of people underestimate just how much the
• 3:40
  Trump family actually wants to see Bitcoin go up.
• 3:43
  I, I've been saying kind of two repetitive things for the, I
• 3:47
  guess, since Trump's been elected.
• 3:48
  One, Trump has very clearly came out and said he's going to use
• 3:52
  the stock market performance as one of the indicators for how
• 3:56
  well he's doing as a president. Obviously, you know, he's coming
• 4:00
  out here all the time saying the economy is great.
• 4:03
  Well, I mean, if you're on Main Street, you're probably begging
• 4:06
  to differ on that front. But S&P 500's been doing pretty
• 4:10
  good. Most really, you know, assets
• 4:12
  that Wall Street likes are doing pretty good.
• 4:15
  And then the second one was he very clearly said earlier in the
• 4:19
  year, or maybe it was during campaign that he's going to be
• 4:21
  using the crypto markets as his second kind of indicator of how
• 4:24
  good he's doing in as a president.
• 4:27
  Now we're seeing him reconfirm a lot of this stuff.
• 4:30
  So putting those two ideas together, I mean, I know people
• 4:33
  in the chat say like the president has no effect on the
• 4:36
  economy, or rather on Bitcoin. Clearly the president has no
• 4:41
  effect on Bitcoin. He clearly has an effect on the
• 4:43
  economy. But I don't know, I, I'm kind of
• 4:48
  sorry, something's ringing over here.
• 4:49
  What's going on? I, I'm kind of begging to differ
• 4:53
  over here. I think, I think with what we're
• 4:57
  seeing and I'm, I'm gonna make the case of some other stuff.
• 4:59
  One, as I've been telling you guys, Wall Street wants to get
• 5:02
  into Bitcoin. It's very clear with the news of
• 5:05
  JP Morgan attacking strategy and now launching its own Bitcoin
• 5:08
  note, preferred note or structured note and all of the
• 5:12
  Wall Street institutions essentially preparing themselves
• 5:16
  for a Bitcoin bull run. Then we have, of course, the
• 5:19
  president of the world reserve currency, Donald Trump here just
• 5:23
  constantly being very focused on what's going on in the stock
• 5:26
  marketing as well in the Bitcoin slash crypto markets.
• 5:29
  And then of course, he's got the six biggest treasury.
• 5:31
  People forget he basically made the majority of his net worth in
• 5:35
  shit coins, World Liberty Finance, the Trump coin, Melania
• 5:38
  coin, etcetera. So I think he's super invested
• 5:42
  in Bitcoin doing well. And then of course, I think the
• 5:45
  one other thing before I pass it to Chris is now that Jamie Dimon
• 5:49
  has gone into Bitcoin, now that he's kind of put his reputation
• 5:51
  on the line, I think we're underestimating just what an
• 5:54
  unlimited bid will look like. They're not coming into this
• 5:58
  Bitcoin thing and expecting an 80% drawdown.
• 6:01
  You guys know I was trolling Nico all week.
• 6:02
  Like 30 K, bro, like I get it. Historically, you can say it
• 6:06
  could get down to 30 Ki, just don't see it.
• 6:08
  What what I've been saying the last couple of weeks and so far
• 6:11
  I'm correct, is that 80 K was the dip and then we're going to
• 6:15
  kind of go sideways and then we're going to see a new leg up.
• 6:18
  That's kind of been my basic framework for what's going on.
• 6:21
  Considering all of the news. Yes, if you're looking at the
• 6:24
  charts, they're pretty ugly. I'm not going to lie, the charts
• 6:27
  looking brutal, but I think there's things outside of the
• 6:30
  chart with all of this new narrative spin that I think most
• 6:33
  bit corners are under estimating.
• 6:35
  So before I move on, Chris, what's your thoughts connecting
• 6:38
  these two thoughts? One, Trump says, hey, I'm going
• 6:40
  to make sure the stock markets is all time high.
• 6:42
  And two, I am very focused on Bitcoin and crypto because of
• 6:47
  China. And as we saw, I don't know if
• 6:49
  you saw this, Chris, but China is now back to the third largest
• 6:52
  miners, you know, in the world. The China mining ban basically
• 6:56
  completely done. And I was making the case it's
• 6:58
  because the US is embracing Bitcoin that China can no longer
• 7:02
  kind of go out there and use the we're going to, we're going to
• 7:05
  ban Bitcoin. Now the game theory is set.
• 7:08
  And I think, you know, I hate to, I hate to be the, the
• 7:11
  extended cycle stuff, but the four year cycle to me, I think,
• 7:15
  I think we can throw that out the window.
• 7:18
  Yeah, I mean, I'll just use the famous Charlie Munger quote
• 7:20
  show, Show me the incentives and I'll show you the outcome.
• 7:23
  I really do think like Trump obviously wants to have a legacy
• 7:27
  being his second term as president.
• 7:29
  He's always been focused on the economy, so to speak, or just
• 7:33
  the real, not the real estate. The stock market in general
• 7:36
  obviously ties to success, definitely economic success.
• 7:40
  And then show me the like, show me the incentive.
• 7:42
  Show me the outcome. I mean, Trump literally launched
• 7:44
  Trump coin, Melania coin like 2 days before he took office.
• 7:47
  I mean, many of the Bitcoin folks or the Bitcoin Maxis were
• 7:50
  not thrilled, myself included in that.
• 7:51
  Like, hey, like basically you're saying you're going to be like
• 7:54
  taking office. You can pardon yourself, You can
• 7:57
  do all these different things and basically like, hey, it's
• 7:59
  basically like, I'm not saying like a pre crime, but basically
• 8:01
  like, hey, I'm launching my own shit coin.
• 8:03
  I'm going to make a ton of money and I'm not going to be held
• 8:05
  accountable for it, at least for the foreseeable 4 years that
• 8:08
  I've been office. I was not thrilled about that,
• 8:10
  but I think being more fair now, obviously Trump, the vast
• 8:15
  majority of his net worth was from real estate, but he
• 8:17
  basically doubled that overnight with Bitcoin and crypto at
• 8:20
  large. Yes, we can go into the nitty
• 8:22
  gritty of him basically just launching his own chick coin,
• 8:24
  but to Opti's point, like he's very tied to the financial
• 8:28
  incentives of Bitcoin doing well and the crypto markets.
• 8:30
  I think he does feel a little bit of loyalty.
• 8:32
  Obviously we've seen him pardoning Ross Ulbricht.
• 8:35
  We've obviously seen the Bitcoin and crypto community donated at
• 8:38
  large. The vote was very at large for
• 8:40
  Trump. And to Trump's point, I mean,
• 8:42
  Trump is normally a person that's pretty good at calling
• 8:44
  out the cultural zeitgeist like he's like the Biden
• 8:47
  administration one way or the other, like him and Gary
• 8:49
  Gensler. I know Opti's a big Gary Gensler
• 8:51
  fan, maybe true Bitcoin maxi. That remains to be seen.
• 8:53
  Still, that was a good call by Opti on his part.
• 8:56
  But that being said, like the choke point 2.0, the crackdown
• 9:00
  on crypto, the a lot of indictments, you know, free
• 9:02
  samurai developers, obviously the the Bitcoin fog case, the
• 9:06
  Bitcoin Oh my gosh, I always forget the last one Bitcoin fog
• 9:11
  and the other. Bitcoin Fixer.
• 9:13
  Samurai Wallet and then Tornado Cash.
• 9:15
  Sorry, those are the three big cases.
• 9:17
  Obviously, a big part of that is the Biden administration was
• 9:20
  very hostile with Bitcoin. And obviously the Bitcoin
• 9:22
  industry is like, hey, you can pick traditional administration
• 9:25
  that's going to be very hostile towards it, or you can pick an
• 9:27
  administration that's showing that they're pro.
• 9:29
  Obviously the Biden administration or the, you know,
• 9:31
  Kamala Harris campaign pivoted, but it was almost too little too
• 9:34
  late. It's like, oh, we were being
• 9:35
  really hard the last 3 1/2 years, but now we're going to
• 9:38
  show leniency to try and buy votes.
• 9:39
  And I think a lot of the voters, especially in the Bitcoin and
• 9:41
  crypto space, saw that and they basically didn't want to be, you
• 9:45
  know, fool me one, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
• 9:48
  And I don't think that many of the voters definitely in the
• 9:50
  crypto Bitcoin space did not want to have the hammer, the law
• 9:53
  come down on them. Obviously there's the
• 9:55
  contrarians in the Bitcoin space that say, like Bitcoin does
• 9:58
  better when the government is harsher and more authoritarian
• 10:01
  because it forces the tools to be built and to be improved,
• 10:04
  which I kind of agree with in a sense.
• 10:06
  But at the same time, I think a lot of people in the industry
• 10:08
  are like, we've had enough of cracking down the last three and
• 10:10
  a half, four years. And it was obviously the
• 10:12
  pendulum kind of swinging the other way.
• 10:13
  There's obviously other many big cultural impacts of this
• 10:17
  presidential election that aside, but I think that was a
• 10:20
  big factor in it. Yeah, I I do think Trump,
• 10:23
  obviously a large person of him and his kids net worth is now
• 10:26
  tied up in Bitcoin. I know there was even reports,
• 10:28
  Opti, I'm pretty sure we talked about this with Baron Trump's
• 10:31
  worth like 100 and $150 million now as well because of the the
• 10:35
  crypto, the crypto of it all. But yeah, like I said, I think
• 10:39
  our sentiment remains the same. Bitcoin, crypto, we see only
• 10:42
  Bitcoin. Stay humble stack sacks.
• 10:44
  That's the best long term financial advice.
• 10:46
  And I agree with you, Opti. I think that like the four year
• 10:48
  signals are, I don't want to call them dead yet, but we're
• 10:51
  not going to 30K. Like I had so many friends over
• 10:54
  Christmas break. They're like Chris, Bitcoins
• 10:56
  crashing. Where do you think?
• 10:57
  And I said probably 70 to 80. I think that now's a good time
• 11:00
  to buy, but I'm kind of a glutton for punishment and I'm
• 11:02
  always buying. So, you know, just to get on the
• 11:05
  the train like me, you know, daily dollar cost average into
• 11:08
  buying Bitcoin and you'll be very, very happy.
• 11:10
  Yeah, I, I can see maybe one more pullback and potentially in
• 11:14
  that 70K range. I, I think that would still kind
• 11:17
  of align with what my view is right now.
• 11:20
  But you brought a Baron, Baron Trump.
• 11:21
  And I really wasn't going to bring this up, but there has
• 11:23
  been a lot of rumors right now that Baron Trump is one of these
• 11:26
  huge secret whales. And yesterday, or maybe it was
• 11:30
  this morning, I saw that this insider whale and they did put
• 11:33
  the picture of Baron Trump on Twitter.
• 11:36
  I guess he he had a short and he basically lost like 1,000,000 or
• 11:40
  2 million on it and then instantly closed that short and
• 11:44
  went long like 90 million. So I mean, if it is Baron, I'm
• 11:48
  sure he knows something's going on.
• 11:50
  Anyways, let's get into a little more of this source material
• 11:52
  'cause there's a more interesting stuff here.
• 11:54
  But First off is this one, as we know, you know, Trump's been
• 11:58
  very vocal about basically getting Jerome Powell out of his
• 12:01
  position. He he does end his kind of
• 12:04
  tenure. I believe it's April of next
• 12:06
  year. But there has been like, let's
• 12:08
  fire Powell. Well, interestingly enough, the
• 12:11
  new favorite is this guy named Kevin Hassett.
• 12:13
  So he's going to be the clear favorite, or at least as of
• 12:16
  today and as of yesterday, the clear favorite for the next Fed
• 12:18
  chair. And the prediction markets have
• 12:21
  skyrocketed on this. Now, again, prediction markets
• 12:23
  aren't always correct, but someone's putting some money on
• 12:26
  the line and now he's got around a 55% chance of being the new
• 12:31
  Fed chair. Now you're probably like, yeah,
• 12:33
  who cares? Who is this Kevin?
• 12:34
  Has it got? Well, he used to be a former
• 12:37
  Coinbase advisor. So there's been a lot of rumors
• 12:40
  of dovish kind of new Fed chairs.
• 12:43
  Like, I forget the guy's first name, but Moran, he came out.
• 12:46
  He's like, we need 3 huge rate cuts.
• 12:49
  If this is the new Fed chair, Kevin Hassett, a former Coinbase
• 12:53
  advisor, as the, you know, the Trump kind of pick for the Fed
• 12:58
  chair, all of this is aligning very well.
• 13:01
  Yeah. Stephen Moran, Thank you.
• 13:02
  Thank you, Chris. Stephen.
• 13:04
  Moran. Stephen Moran, sorry, this is
• 13:07
  all lining up very, I think clearly for what we've been
• 13:11
  dubbing, or rather what I've been dubbing, what Mark Moss has
• 13:13
  been dubbing, the MAR a Lago Accords where they essentially
• 13:17
  realize, hey, the way we're going right now isn't good.
• 13:20
  People aren't buying U.S. Treasuries.
• 13:21
  We need to have a treasury buyer, an intimate demand.
• 13:26
  And that is of course why they want to kind of include stable
• 13:29
  coins into the American kind of monetary process.
• 13:32
  Now if we do get an X coin based advisor as the Fed chair, I
• 13:36
  think it could be a very easy guess to say that the Trump's
• 13:41
  going to get what he wants, which is of course interest rate
• 13:43
  cuts, lot of free money back on the table and then unleashing a
• 13:48
  stable coins which inadvertently will unleash Bitcoin.
• 13:51
  And going further, the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting
• 13:54
  interest rate are also rising. It just rose to 87% on
• 13:58
  polymarket. So it looks like all of the kind
• 14:02
  of indicators that are leading to more free money, the money
• 14:06
  printer, they're getting turned back on again.
• 14:08
  We have about 3 days or yeah, three days officially until QT
• 14:12
  is officially over. They said it's going to be done
• 14:14
  December 1st. Obviously, there's going to be
• 14:17
  delay before even we get any indication of whether they're
• 14:20
  going to go QE or QE by any other name.
• 14:24
  But you know one thing, they are not tightening the balance sheet
• 14:28
  anymore. Now, does that mean they're
• 14:30
  going to have free reign to print as much as possible?
• 14:32
  I'm guessing not, but if we've seen anything come out recently
• 14:37
  that is an indicator of what's going to happen.
• 14:39
  It's what happened in Japan again.
• 14:41
  They printed about $135 billion stimulus package, which in
• 14:45
  dollar terms in equivalence to the US in size, in relative
• 14:48
  terms, that's about a trillion dollars that the Japanese
• 14:52
  economy or government just printed.
• 14:53
  So it looks like the money printers are coming back online
• 14:57
  and obviously you do not want to be sitting on the sideline.
• 15:00
  This is why I've been kind of arguing with one of my buddies,
• 15:03
  actually Chris and mines good friend.
• 15:05
  He's like I'm scaling out. It's going lower bro.
• 15:08
  And I'm like, I dude, I would not even if you're right, I
• 15:11
  would not want to be on the sideline if the Max Payne tread
• 15:14
  a trade is everyone think it's going lower bear market and it
• 15:18
  just absolutely rips because we have institutions, nation States
• 15:22
  and the money printer turning on.
• 15:23
  To me, that's a little too much risk than I'm willing to kind of
• 15:27
  accept when it comes to my Bitcoin positions and my views
• 15:31
  on this. Now before I pass it on to
• 15:33
  Chris, I do want to add 1 little tidbit in here 'cause I was
• 15:36
  going to bring this up yesterday and we got some even more
• 15:39
  interesting news. So I did grok can I?
• 15:42
  Can I call it Fact Check? I grok check this and it does
• 15:45
  seem to be true. Arkham wasn't working for me
• 15:47
  this morning. But in this dip we're seeing
• 15:51
  whales and institutions buying a mass amount of coin.
• 15:55
  I think the total number is about 14,800 Bitcoin have been
• 15:58
  bought up in the last 24 hours and you can see Strategy buying
• 16:02
  7600 Bitcoin, Wintermu buying over 10,000 Bitcoin, Fidelity
• 16:07
  buying 1500 Bitcoin and Bitwise buying 6700 bitcoins.
• 16:11
  So if you're selling your Bitcoin right now because you
• 16:14
  think it's going lower you're selling it to the institutions
• 16:18
  now I wouldn't be wanting to do that.
• 16:21
  I I'm not willing to take that risk and going further to add to
• 16:24
  this information, the number of wallets holding .1 Bitcoin has
• 16:28
  gone down during this dip while the whales, the wallets with
• 16:31
  1000 Bitcoin plus is ripping guys.
• 16:34
  So we are essentially seeing what I've been telling you guys
• 16:38
  for the last couple of weeks since we've seen this dip, since
• 16:41
  we've gotten kind of some new frameworks of the IPO Bitcoin
• 16:44
  moment happened, the institutions coming in, JP
• 16:47
  Morgan announcing that they're going to be launching A
• 16:49
  structured note product. You're seeing retail get
• 16:53
  absolutely shaken out right now. If you're selling Bitcoin and
• 16:57
  you think it's going lower, you're selling it to Jamie
• 17:00
  Dimon, Sailor Larry Fink, Wall Street institutions.
• 17:04
  Right now is not the time to be selling out.
• 17:06
  Expecting it to go lower. I'm convinced it's going to go
• 17:09
  higher. Obviously not financial advice.
• 17:12
  This is just kind of what my gut and intuition is telling me.
• 17:14
  Again, my main kind of thesis is look, I'm looking at the chart
• 17:19
  too, and it's brutal, it's ugly. It makes me think of bear
• 17:22
  markets coming, but with the amount of kind of narrative
• 17:26
  shift we've seen from the institutions in Wall Street, it
• 17:30
  just, it makes no sense to me that we're going to see another
• 17:32
  80% drawdown. And I think This is why a lot of
• 17:35
  people are getting absolutely wrecked because they're looking
• 17:38
  at the charts, they're expecting things to play out as they
• 17:40
  played out before. But the last few years have
• 17:42
  proven us one thing. All our models are broken again,
• 17:45
  all time high before the having no parabolic bull run yet in
• 17:49
  2025 and and we have the institutions coming in and just
• 17:53
  to kind of add a little more on to this.
• 17:55
  The coin based Bitcoin premium finally turns green.
• 17:57
  So the institutions are buying again.
• 18:00
  It is just slipped green. The institutions are out here
• 18:02
  scooping up the coin. So if you're selling your coin
• 18:05
  right now, you're literally selling it to Wall Street.
• 18:08
  I, I just, I don't think it's a, a very wise move to make right
• 18:13
  now, especially when you're doing the classic like, I'm
• 18:16
  going to sell higher so I can buy lower.
• 18:20
  And it's like, how many times have we seen friends get wrecked
• 18:22
  doing this exact process? Everyone thinks they know the
• 18:25
  market. This is why I claim to have a 42
• 18:28
  IQ, because I know I'm not smarter than the market.
• 18:31
  I just try to accumulate as much as possible.
• 18:34
  If it was very clearly a blow off top, then yeah, yeah, maybe
• 18:37
  you take a little chips off the table so you can survive.
• 18:39
  But I think what we've seen in the year 2025, at least so far,
• 18:45
  is we are seeing a rotation of holders in Bitcoin.
• 18:49
  We're seeing from the old guard into the new guard or from the,
• 18:52
  you know, cypherpunk Bitcoiner to the institutional Wall Street
• 18:57
  type bitcoiner. And I'm not going to get caught
• 19:00
  off offsides on this one. I, I think the institutions are
• 19:03
  buying this thing. I think they want to get in at a
• 19:06
  good price. I think they're going to RIP it.
• 19:07
  I, I don't think they're in Bitcoin to just get, you know, s
• 19:11
  s and P 500 + 500 bips here. Like they're not just trying to
• 19:15
  barely outperform the S&P 500. I think they're trying to get in
• 19:18
  and get a couple, you know, 345X baggers and who knows, who knows
• 19:23
  what we're going moving forward. All all I've been saying is
• 19:26
  something feels different, something looks different,
• 19:28
  different. And I'm, I'm not willing to, you
• 19:32
  know, put my stack on the line, not that I have one.
• 19:35
  You know, I, I lost. I don't even hold Bitcoin.
• 19:37
  I just like to talk about Bitcoin.
• 19:39
  But a very interesting things are going on.
• 19:41
  And, and the more that I see retail kind of get scared and
• 19:45
  bearish, the more I just keep thinking like Jamie Dimon and
• 19:48
  Larry Fink and Donald Trump and Scott Basson, They must be
• 19:51
  laughing their ass off behind the scenes and being like, thank
• 19:55
  you for this cheap coin, you idiot, because it's about to RIP
• 19:58
  so hard. And we're we're seeing people
• 20:02
  get played, We're seeing people get absolute, I think people are
• 20:04
  going to get absolutely burnt moving forward.
• 20:06
  To me, Max Payne is being a bitcoiner for what, 5710 years?
• 20:12
  And then at the moment that institutions come in, you get
• 20:15
  scared, you get shaken out of your bag and then it just rips.
• 20:19
  I don't know. I think that's the real Max
• 20:20
  Payne scenario. But you know, what do I know?
• 20:24
  This is my bias showing. I, I tell you guys constantly I
• 20:28
  am very biased. I stay bull tarted until the
• 20:31
  information kind of shows me that I was wrong.
• 20:34
  And as of now, all I know is everyone's been wrong and I'm
• 20:36
  not going to listen to anyone else.
• 20:37
  Now I'm listening to my intuition here and I, I think, I
• 20:41
  think we're going sideways and then up.
• 20:42
  I, I don't think this is the bear market.
• 20:44
  Good thing I don't have Nico here to be a perma bear.
• 20:47
  But I I'm not convinced we're in a bear market yet.
• 20:50
  I've been in denial for a while and I I will maintain denial
• 20:53
  until we break under 70K. Yeah, hit it, Chris.
• 20:59
  I agree, I'm not a seller here. Wasn't a seller at 126 K.
• 21:03
  Well not a seller AT80K. I'm on.
• 21:04
  I'm in accumulation phase. Like the name of the game is
• 21:07
  accumulating. Accumulating as many and as much
• 21:10
  that as you can possibly responsibly without taking
• 21:13
  leverage. I think that's the be all, end
• 21:14
  all game. Obviously, my good buddy, my old
• 21:17
  boss CK Snarks used to say like it.
• 21:20
  You're in the long haul and part of that long haul is not only
• 21:23
  not selling or not buying or trading this asset, it's getting
• 21:26
  your Bitcoin from when you bought it to the end, when you
• 21:28
  need to use it, when you're at retirement, when you need to
• 21:31
  spend it, whatever. Like there's nothing worse than,
• 21:33
  you know, trying to accumulate all this Bitcoin and then you
• 21:35
  send to to an address that you cannot access.
• 21:37
  So that's part of the game as well.
• 21:39
  So obviously when things are crazy, you obviously want to act
• 21:42
  very slowly, responsibly. You don't want to panic.
• 21:45
  You don't want to do do anything irrational.
• 21:47
  I think the best thing to do is to always check your setups to
• 21:50
  make sure that you're, you know, using the wallets properly to
• 21:53
  make sure that your backups are secure and safe.
• 21:56
  Yeah, I think that that's the name of the game.
• 21:58
  I know actually, Nico. Nico, not Opti.
• 22:02
  I'll send you this. I had this from Primal.
• 22:05
  Or actually, I can just talk it, but then you can put it up on
• 22:07
  the screen. Do you have my Primal account by
• 22:09
  any chance? I can talk you through it while
• 22:10
  you have. It maybe.
• 22:14
  I can pull it up real quick. Anyway, I could talk through it.
• 22:17
  So I've been seeing a lot of talk obviously about the S&P 500
• 22:20
  in gold over the last 25 years. As a comparison, they were kind
• 22:23
  of using the crash of, you know, the 2000, 2001 financial crisis
• 22:29
  or the what is it, the Internet of Things when they everything
• 22:32
  crashed then. So if you were buying the S&P
• 22:34
  500 25 years ago, the gains from the S&P 500 of like around
• 22:40
  January of 2000 were 358% if you're using gold.
• 22:45
  So obviously gold's been the news.
• 22:47
  Gold's been ripping. China, Russia, all these other
• 22:49
  countries are buying it because they're claiming that gold.
• 22:51
  We're going to be back on the gold standard.
• 22:53
  Gold's returns, quite impressive.
• 22:55
  I will give it 1354%. If you started when the Bitcoin
• 22:59
  network started, obviously many of us weren't into Bitcoin then,
• 23:02
  but the returns from January 3rd, 2009 were 100 and 24
• 23:06
  million, 109,300% returns. Obviously, you know, you're not
• 23:11
  Satoshi, you're not half any, OK, you're not part of that
• 23:13
  group. OK, let's just say the second
• 23:15
  epoch, so January 3rd, 2020, 2012, 1,339,250.
• 23:22
  Obviously a lot of people are early there, early adopters,
• 23:25
  early innovators, OK, you're not part of that group.
• 23:27
  January 14th, 2016, twenty 2774% returns is astronomical.
• 23:33
  And then I guess if you're looking from January 8th, 2020,
• 23:36
  935% returns and a lot of people are like, well, gold is still
• 23:39
  outperformed. No, I use gold in a 25 year
• 23:42
  window. I use the S&P over a 25 year
• 23:44
  window. If you're using this just from
• 23:46
  2000, January 8th, 2020 and that wasn't even when it dipped down
• 23:51
  to 3000 Ki think around January 8th, 2020 was probably around
• 23:55
  like 7 to 10K11K somewhere in that range.
• 23:59
  So it just goes to show like you if you're in it for the long
• 24:01
  haul, Bitcoin is going to perform excellent over the long
• 24:04
  term. You know, obviously NVIDIA and
• 24:06
  MicroStrategy over that time might have done slightly better,
• 24:08
  but even there on the decline, I do think that it trends towards
• 24:12
  1, meaning that it is trending towards the hardest money in the
• 24:14
  world, which is Bitcoin. Obviously they can print more
• 24:16
  MicroStrategy stock, they can print more, you know, NVIDIA
• 24:20
  stock, you know, gold is coming out of the ground at a higher
• 24:23
  rate than Bitcoin is being produced by the blocks of the
• 24:25
  miners. And then obviously the S&P 500
• 24:27
  is just kind of a general investing average.
• 24:29
  So if you can beat all of those things without having the risk
• 24:32
  of CEO, with having having the risk of boards, without having
• 24:36
  the risk of default of debt, of the Fiat money system
• 24:40
  collapsing, I think Bitcoin is your best bet.
• 24:42
  And the hardest money of the hardest money wins over time
• 24:45
  always. Sorry for my rant, there it was.
• 24:47
  No, it was great chaotic, but yeah, that was some great, great
• 24:50
  context 'cause I, I was looking, actually, Sophie sent me this
• 24:53
  video and it was like what people thought about money in
• 24:56
  1994. And it's crazy.
• 24:59
  It goes into like the history doesn't repeat, you know, it
• 25:02
  often rhymes though, and they're saying a lot of the things that
• 25:04
  you're seeing now. And I went in and I looked at
• 25:06
  the S&P 500 chart and in, in 1994, it was a, it was basically
• 25:10
  like a negative year. But if you just slowly but
• 25:13
  surely invested in the S&P 500 from 1994 onward, you got like
• 25:18
  1400% returns. And so like everyone was
• 25:21
  freaking out. They're like, you know, they're
• 25:23
  doing the classic like diversify your investment portfolio.
• 25:26
  All you got to do is save, you know, save 25%, etcetera,
• 25:30
  etcetera. Like the same things we've all
• 25:31
  heard. And you kind of look back and
• 25:34
  you're like, wow, you know, on the one hand, all you had to do
• 25:38
  is buy the S&P 500 and you're you're doing pretty good, like
• 25:41
  pretty good returns. But now we have Bitcoin and you
• 25:45
  look back and everything they said, you're like, they sound
• 25:49
  kind of like bitcoins, or rather maybe like pre corners, you
• 25:51
  know, people that get into Bitcoin, you see the same
• 25:54
  problems. It's only it's only been, you
• 25:56
  know, exaggerated now because of inflation, because the amount of
• 26:00
  money printing that's been going on, because the system is so
• 26:03
  broken. And it kind of a reason reminds
• 26:06
  me of the meme of like, you don't really have to diversify
• 26:09
  your money if your money is performing well.
• 26:12
  If your money can store value, there's no need to diversify
• 26:15
  into anything else. But when you have broken money,
• 26:17
  everyone gets turned into an investor, you know?
• 26:19
  And it's just crazy to look back and maybe this is the
• 26:22
  millennial. I mean, you look back and you're
• 26:24
  like, man, you know, the Boomers, the Gen.
• 26:27
  Xers, they, they kind of, they kind of had it so easy.
• 26:29
  All you had to do is to throw your money at the S&P 500.
• 26:32
  And then I, and then I think about it, I'm like, people are
• 26:34
  going to say, we had it easy. All you had to do is throw your
• 26:36
  money into Bitcoin and you're doing very well now.
• 26:39
  It's like we didn't get that opportunity.
• 26:41
  So you know, history doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes.
• 26:45
  And I'll have one more thing. There was a great quote from
• 26:47
  Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.
• 26:48
  I think it was Warren Buffett's particularly was saying like,
• 26:51
  don't diversify. Like, you know, he always says
• 26:53
  like the punch, basically, if you could only have 20
• 26:56
  investments over your entire life, what would be the 20
• 26:58
  investments that you want? He'd like you'd list one through
• 27:00
  20 and then you invest in the top five and you'd guard those
• 27:04
  at like for like your life depended on it.
• 27:06
  So obviously, you know, diversifying into things is only
• 27:10
  great for the money managers. It's great for Larry Fink and
• 27:13
  BlackRock and you know, Fidelity and Vanguard for you to have
• 27:17
  diversify because a lot of them have this 2 and 20 spread or
• 27:20
  they're collecting fees on you just by, you know, just behind
• 27:23
  the market buying the basket. But to Opti's point, you know,
• 27:26
  if you're buying the best and hardest money in the world,
• 27:28
  you're going to perform way better than those and you have
• 27:30
  great returns just doing the S&P 500 easy thing.
• 27:33
  So like I think Greg Voss had this great thing saying like,
• 27:37
  you know, if you want to hedge, you know, if you want to hedge,
• 27:39
  like if you don't want to be 100% in Bitcoin, not that Opti
• 27:42
  and I are in that because we don't own any Bitcoin.
• 27:44
  We just like to talk about it, but if you want to hedge.
• 27:46
  I have no money, what are you talking?
• 27:47
  About like if you want to hedge, it's like you do it based on
• 27:50
  your position size. You're like, OK, I only want to
• 27:52
  have 50% of my net worth in Bitcoin and then I want to put
• 27:54
  the remaining 50% of my savings, you know, outside of my spending
• 27:58
  in SP500 or in gold. Like I'm assuming the person
• 28:01
  that does like a 3030 thirty of S&P 500 gold and Bitcoin.
• 28:05
  Yeah, maybe we have more conviction, you and I, in
• 28:09
  Bitcoin ourselves, but if you do a third, a third, a third in
• 28:11
  gold, Bitcoin and SB500, I'm sure you're going to be
• 28:15
  fabulously wealthy in 30 to 40 years.
• 28:17
  Yeah. Maybe for the people that are a
• 28:19
  little bit further on in their working career or getting closer
• 28:22
  to retirement, they won't have the luxury of that.
• 28:24
  So maybe position a little bit higher in Bitcoin in or, you
• 28:27
  know, a smaller amount of your large net worth.
• 28:29
  But yeah, I think that if you did a third, a third, a third in
• 28:32
  those three assets, you'll be great.
• 28:33
  If you want to be more risky, so to speak, put it more into
• 28:36
  Bitcoin. Like I said, I don't have any.
• 28:38
  We just like to talk on. That well, well, you, you
• 28:41
  reminded me of one. Yeah, yeah, totally, totally
• 28:43
  full disclaimer, Full disclaimer.
• 28:46
  You reminded me of one of the things that that that video
• 28:48
  said, and you guys could probably find it if you want to
• 28:50
  watch it on YouTube. It's like 1994, what people
• 28:53
  think about money or something like that.
• 28:55
  And one of the things they said that you kind of reminded me is
• 28:57
  like, if you're older, you probably want to be, you know,
• 29:02
  not as far off the risk scale. But if you're younger and you do
• 29:05
  have a 30 year window kind of investment like perspective
• 29:10
  here, then you're obviously you have a lot of time where you can
• 29:14
  go a little farther off the risk scale here and do things that,
• 29:18
  you know, a 70 year old wouldn't do.
• 29:20
  Like if you're 30 years old, personally, I, I'd be like, just
• 29:24
  buy Bitcoin, just go all in. You know, if you're young, if
• 29:26
  you're like a, a zoomer, it's like, bro, just go all in on
• 29:30
  Bitcoin, Do whatever. You know, I go full sailor, like
• 29:33
  sell your kidneys, like do whatever you can go all in on
• 29:37
  Bitcoin. You're going to be straight
• 29:38
  again, obviously, if I'm talking to like my parents, I'm not
• 29:42
  telling them like he lock your house or anything.
• 29:45
  My dad's a gold bug, silver bug. Hey, I'm just like, dude, just
• 29:48
  buy a little bit of Bitcoin and you know, like just chill on it
• 29:52
  and you'll be happy. Basically just just get some so
• 29:55
  that I will shut up. But I think your point remains
• 29:57
  the same. Like if you're younger, you have
• 29:59
  a lot more room to take some risk, which is probably just a
• 30:03
  bigger Bitcoin kind of allocation.
• 30:06
  Yeah, I'll add one last thing. I've been reading the Bible a
• 30:09
  little bit more and there was a great biblical quote that I saw
• 30:12
  that basically said if you're taking your your net worth or
• 30:15
  taking your savings, do a third into your business, 1/3 into
• 30:18
  gold and 1/3 into real estate. If you change that gold with
• 30:22
  Bitcoin, like I said, I think it'll do quite well with
• 30:24
  yourself. But yeah, I don't know if that's
• 30:25
  just, it was funny reading that. I'm like, yeah, if he's changed
• 30:28
  gold to digital gold, I think he'll do pretty, pretty good.
• 30:32
  Yeah, you know, I always loved the, it's not biblical, but the
• 30:35
  richest man in Babylon. And every time I read that, I
• 30:37
  would just change anytime they said gold to Bitcoin.
• 30:39
  I'm like, this is great advice. This is the best advice ever.
• 30:43
  All right, guys, Anyways, let's keep the show moving.
• 30:45
  I do. I'm actually going to switch it
• 30:46
  up a little bit. So instead of playing you guys a
• 30:48
  clip in the numbers, I do want to cover what's going on in the
• 30:50
  silver markets because I find it very interesting.
• 30:53
  And I think there's a lot of parallels in the Bitcoin.
• 30:55
  And then in the news, we got an update on strategy in the S&P
• 30:59
  500 and then some interesting news coming from the nation
• 31:02
  state. And then I will end the show.
• 31:04
  I'm I'm going to drop a little bullish opium for you guys.
• 31:07
  So that that's the layout for today's show.
• 31:09
  Jam packed show. Of course, smash the like
• 31:11
  button, comment on the show. Let us know what you think about
• 31:13
  the show and hit the subscribe button because we're dropping
• 31:16
  bangers, guys, I don't know if you've been watching Dante and
• 31:19
  Rustin's videos, but they are popping off right now.
• 31:23
  They're making some banger videos and before I move on, I
• 31:26
  do got to talk about our boys over at Bitcoin.
• 31:30
  Well, if you are looking at this 80 wait 9192K price right now
• 31:35
  and you are like me thinking it's going to go higher.
• 31:38
  You want to smash buy some Bitcoin, make sure you go to
• 31:40
  bitcoinwell.com/simply BTC. The reason we love them so much
• 31:45
  is because they never hold on to your Bitcoin.
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• 31:51
  because once your dollars go through, it goes straight into
• 31:53
  cold storage. They're the only, only company
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  that does that. And we're, we're trying to make
• 31:58
  sure that you guys never get rug pulled by leaving your Bitcoin
• 32:01
  on exchanges. So go to bitcoinwell.com/simply.
• 32:05
  And hey, if you're watching this, you're finally
• 32:08
  understanding what's going on and you want to smash by $50,000
• 32:11
  or more, get in touch with the Infinite Well team.
• 32:13
  They will give you the white glove service and they will make
• 32:16
  sure that you are holding Bitcoin for the long term.
• 32:19
  All right, guys. On that note, we'll be right
• 32:21
  back after this commercial break.
• 32:29
  I want to give a shout out to our partner Stamp seed.
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• 33:42
  All righty then, guys, at the time of this announcement,
• 33:47
  current Bitcoin prices $90,000 and 750.
• 33:51
  Wait, $90,750? It did.
• 33:55
  It did go up to like 92 something this morning.
• 33:58
  So there's some life back in the market, guys.
• 34:00
  There's some life back in the market.
• 34:01
  Maybe it's a dead cat bounce. That's what everyone's saying.
• 34:04
  I keep seeing James Wynn say dead cat bounce, but you know
• 34:09
  anyone that shorts Bitcoin on on a big enough scale, I, I'm, I
• 34:12
  fundamentally don't like them. So you know, I don't agree with
• 34:15
  what he said here. We are bullet hard.
• 34:17
  We only long Bitcoin anyways. That's a -28.1% decline from all
• 34:22
  time high the market cap inching up towards 2 trill.
• 34:24
  We're currently at 1.81 trillion and the current block height is
• 34:27
  925,588. OK guys, so again, I usually
• 34:33
  play a video, but I want to sneak a new, new story in here.
• 34:36
  And while we all had the ITIS yesterday after Thanksgiving
• 34:40
  dinner, very interesting stuff is going on in the silver
• 34:44
  market. So here's the first
• 34:45
  announcement. So just in again, this was 10:40
• 34:48
  PM 9/20. Oh, this happened actually 2
• 34:51
  days ago and we all just saw it kind of play out yesterday.
• 34:54
  And you know, I was so focused on eating Turkey and mashed
• 34:58
  potatoes that I completely missed this.
• 35:00
  Anyways, the CME futures halt halted incredibly, just as
• 35:04
  silver and gold were about ready to launch, the CME futures and
• 35:09
  options markets were halted. Now everyone is looking at this
• 35:14
  and essentially it, I think it's opening up a lot of people's
• 35:17
  eyes. And I, I was really thinking
• 35:19
  about the silver bats guys. I don't know if you guys also
• 35:22
  saw Michael Bury, AKA the infamous guy from The Big Short.
• 35:25
  He did a post yesterday or two days ago about GameStop and kind
• 35:29
  of, you know, putting the spotlight back on GameStop.
• 35:32
  And at the same time, we're seeing that the CME has halted
• 35:36
  trading on silver and gold. Now, that story in and of itself
• 35:41
  would probably be a non story. But what's interesting is the
• 35:45
  excuse that they gave. And this is where I think
• 35:48
  they're being exposed. And further, it's starting to
• 35:51
  really expose more people to the idea that the markets are
• 35:54
  rigged. Anyways, it didn't it didn't
• 35:56
  actually stop the price. So I'll cover what's going on
• 35:59
  this morning. It's going nuts.
• 36:00
  So CME Futures Trading stopped on Friday after data glitch Data
• 36:06
  center glitch Live trading commodities featured options in
• 36:09
  the Chicago Mercantile Exchange halted on Friday due to
• 36:11
  technical issues, according to a Singapore based spokesperson for
• 36:15
  CME Group. Quote due to a cooling issue at
• 36:18
  Cyrus One data centers, our markets are currently halted,
• 36:22
  the spokesperson said in an emailed statement.
• 36:24
  Support is working to resolve the issue in the near term and
• 36:28
  will advise client to pre open details as soon as they are
• 36:31
  available. Now as more people dug into
• 36:34
  this, it seemed like only the serious one, data centers that
• 36:39
  are connected to the CME were halted for some cooling issue,
• 36:43
  which is making everyone essentially say like there's
• 36:46
  some shenanigans going on. Everyone is essentially making
• 36:49
  the case that look, the CME basically said we got a halt
• 36:53
  trading on silver and gold because silver is about to
• 36:57
  absolutely RIP and we got to just stop the trading.
• 37:01
  I think it was down for about 10 hours.
• 37:03
  It finally turned on this morning and I think that's where
• 37:05
  the story gets even more interesting is because right as
• 37:09
  CME kind of started again, it finally ripped past here.
• 37:14
  Actually, let me go. Let me go to this chart here,
• 37:16
  which is absolutely nuts. It finally ripped past the 1981
• 37:22
  right? Is it 8119 eighty all time high
• 37:25
  of 5047 something dollars. Currently we're at 56.43 dollars
• 37:32
  per per ounce of silver, absolutely ripping past these
• 37:36
  all time highs. Now I know a lot of people are
• 37:39
  probably sitting here like OK this is a Bitcoin show.
• 37:41
  Like who cares why? Why do I have to pay attention
• 37:44
  with what's going on with silver?
• 37:46
  Well, when silver rips, especially in the same year that
• 37:51
  gold rips past all time high, this is telling you a lot about
• 37:55
  what investor sentiment is. This is telling you a lot about
• 37:59
  what people believe in the fundamental plumbing of the
• 38:02
  traditional financial system. When you see stuff like this
• 38:05
  happen, first gold rips, then silver.
• 38:08
  RIP. It should usually kind of get
• 38:11
  you thinking, OK, Bitcoin is about to RIP soon.
• 38:14
  This is also one of the reasons why I don't think we are in a
• 38:17
  bear market. I was kind of trying to find a
• 38:20
  way to frame this. I, I wanted to say like a hard
• 38:23
  money bull run, 2025 is a hard money bull run, but silver's
• 38:27
  really been demonetized and like a precious metal bull run
• 38:30
  doesn't sound as good because in bitcoins, not in it.
• 38:33
  But that's the essentially the signal that I'm getting here.
• 38:36
  And it's very interesting because like the bottom line is
• 38:40
  when silver breaks all time high, it's not really about
• 38:43
  silver. It's about what the investor and
• 38:46
  the system is saying in the background.
• 38:48
  It's basically people are losing faith in Fiat there and faster
• 38:52
  than they can print it. And of course, from a Bitcoin is
• 38:55
  perspective, you're like, OK, all of this is aligning very,
• 38:58
  very good. Like things are working in our
• 39:01
  favor. Even though the charts are
• 39:02
  looking very bad. I did do like a a small ChatGPT
• 39:06
  kind of take of it and you get said you can think of it like
• 39:08
  this. Gold lights the match, silver
• 39:10
  throws gasoline and Bitcoin becomes the wildfire.
• 39:14
  So I'm thinking I'm like, man, everything is lining up good.
• 39:17
  We had a gold all time high in 2025.
• 39:20
  We had the silver all time high. That's literally what I don't
• 39:23
  know, 50 year bear market couldn't breakthrough that.
• 39:26
  Now there's people saying this run's not going to really last
• 39:29
  for too long, but the point remains the same that what
• 39:33
  you're seeing is the market, the traditional financial system
• 39:38
  kind of fighting back and the only way they know how to, which
• 39:41
  is this. This is why we always tell you,
• 39:43
  you need to take your Bitcoin off the exchange.
• 39:45
  So while I'm reading this, even though this is about the CME and
• 39:48
  what's happening in the traditional markets, you should
• 39:51
  be thinking of Bitcoin in the exchanges.
• 39:53
  So you have been warned when the banksters can no longer control
• 39:57
  the paper market, they will 1 shut down the exchanges 2,
• 40:00
  settle paper contracts with Fiat and three, everything force
• 40:04
  majeure majeure. Now we see they are acting
• 40:08
  according to the playbook. This worked in the past because
• 40:10
  they're the only price discovery mechanism in town.
• 40:13
  And I would add this last part to where he's missing now the
• 40:17
  world has, you know, other means for price discovery.
• 40:20
  Now we have. Bitcoin which is the true free
• 40:22
  market of money which cannot be controlled.
• 40:24
  It cannot be halted. Yes, exchanges can go down, but
• 40:27
  you cannot stop Bitcoin on a transaction base layer.
• 40:32
  Now here's where again this excuse starts to get exposed.
• 40:36
  He goes I just spoke to a commodity trader and he said the
• 40:38
  glitch excuse is BS. Silver futures book was very
• 40:41
  thin. Then a trade cleared the offer
• 40:43
  side with no quotes left. According to him, as CME is
• 40:47
  giving time to market makers to reposition and avoid a price
• 40:50
  print off the chart. And I don't know if you guys saw
• 40:54
  Larry Lapardi like hundred $200 per silver oz right now.
• 40:58
  So these are the signals that, you know, macro guys, Fiat
• 41:03
  doomers have been looking at for a long time and they're like
• 41:06
  this is going to happen at some point.
• 41:08
  Now we got it and I know you guys love memes so I got to
• 41:12
  throw 1 meme in here for you guys and he goes Black Friday
• 41:15
  started off as the gold panic of 1869 and now it's turning into
• 41:19
  the gold and silver panic of 2025.
• 41:22
  Did the memes just write themselves?
• 41:24
  It is Black Friday, silver's running, people are panicking,
• 41:30
  Bitcoin prices going up. I'm like, man, it's almost like
• 41:36
  everything is working in our favor.
• 41:38
  And I think the charts are lying to us right now and everyone's
• 41:41
  feeling bearish and I just keep thinking I'm like, it's not over
• 41:45
  again. I'm, I'm, I'm in denial.
• 41:48
  Like, you know, denial is not just a river in Egypt.
• 41:50
  It's it's Opti right now. My Bitcoin is going to RIP.
• 41:53
  We're we're going to RIP. So everything's telling me we're
• 41:56
  going to RIP. You know, first gold this year
• 41:59
  outperformed everything. Bitcoin basically went sideways
• 42:01
  all year. Now we're seeing silver
• 42:03
  outperform everything or not outperform everything but hit
• 42:06
  all time time highs. I'm like, it's only a matter of
• 42:08
  time until Bitcoin starts ripping guys.
• 42:10
  And then on the other thing, I saw a lot of China currently,
• 42:14
  there's a, you know, there is a price disparage right now
• 42:18
  between the prices in the US and the prices in China.
• 42:21
  And apparently China is trying to settle a lot of physical
• 42:24
  silver currently. And so my take away from this
• 42:28
  is, you know, essentially someone wanted to claim a lot of
• 42:31
  physical silver, probably margin called someone.
• 42:35
  It seems like someone's going to be blowing up right now.
• 42:38
  CME had to stop trading on this because it was going to get out
• 42:41
  of their way. They closed it for about 10
• 42:44
  hours on Thanksgiving. And right when they kind of re
• 42:48
  re put the markets back up, it just ripped even higher.
• 42:51
  And it's like, it seems like all of the tools that Triadfi has
• 42:55
  been able to use for years, decades, they're, they're,
• 42:59
  they're getting, they're getting called on that, you know, the
• 43:01
  margin calls are happening not just in the trades, but on these
• 43:04
  institutions. And I'm like, it's just a, it's
• 43:07
  a perfect storm, Chris. It's a perfect storm right now.
• 43:11
  So I don't know. I'm, I'm starting to see stuff
• 43:14
  and feeling very bullish. And really none of it has to do
• 43:16
  with the Bitcoin price currently.
• 43:18
  It's everything around it. Anyways, I've been ranting a
• 43:20
  while. Chris, what's your thought?
• 43:22
  Actually, you did tell me a very interesting point about the 1980
• 43:26
  all time high, which has a very, you know, nice parallel to where
• 43:30
  we are today. Yeah, I mean, I've been biting
• 43:33
  my tongue. I've been wanting to talk so
• 43:34
  badly, but I wanted to let you rant.
• 43:37
  Well, so obviously Obti was talking about the Hunt Brothers
• 43:39
  in the 1980s. The price spiked from a year
• 43:43
  prior from $6 per Troy oz up to 49.45 dollars per Troy oz.
• 43:49
  Obviously they kind of cradled the market then because they
• 43:51
  said they were performing market manipulation, whatever that
• 43:53
  means. They were just kind of, you
• 43:55
  know, finding the true price of silver because they were buying
• 43:58
  it and taking taking delivery of it.
• 44:01
  So they were pulling a lot of physical gold off.
• 44:03
  When you use paper contracts for a lot of like the CME or
• 44:06
  different things like that, like you don't always have to take
• 44:08
  physical settlement of it so they can play paper games.
• 44:11
  I mean, JP Morgan literally was fined like in 2019, like I think
• 44:15
  the largest fine ever in financial crime or manipulating
• 44:18
  of precious metals markets. It was like $970 million, just
• 44:22
  shy of a billion dollars for these traders in the precious
• 44:25
  metal markets. Basically making trades, like
• 44:27
  bogus trades of saying like, yeah, like I'm, I'm, I'm making
• 44:30
  a trade. I'm making a bid contract of
• 44:32
  this amount for this many tons of gold.
• 44:34
  And then they were canceling it and then not accepting delivery
• 44:37
  but saying they were. So they were basically
• 44:39
  manipulating the markets down because, you know, like Opti
• 44:42
  says like, oh, these glitches, you know, heads I win, tails you
• 44:45
  lose. That's kind of the way it always
• 44:46
  seems. And this is kind of the whole
• 44:48
  point. This is going to wrap it in a
• 44:49
  nice little bow right here on Black Friday here in 2025.
• 44:53
  You're our Lord is that you play in their markets, you play by
• 44:57
  their rules and you play by their rules means that they can
• 45:00
  change the rules. What if and when they ever want
• 45:03
  to to benefit them. If you want to buy a stock, oh,
• 45:05
  all of a sudden stocks is halted.
• 45:08
  We saw this in 2001 with the GameStop trade.
• 45:11
  Oh, you want to play in the silver and gold markets?
• 45:14
  Well, if you're not taking physical settlement of those and
• 45:16
  you're doing paper contracts, which you know are legit, are
• 45:19
  legitimate for the most part. If you're doing futures
• 45:21
  contracts or shorts and all these different things, Oh, you
• 45:24
  know, big banker friend is called offsides and they, you
• 45:28
  know, it's gonna fuck you over. Well, we're gonna go with our
• 45:30
  big banker buddy. This actually happened and I
• 45:33
  won't dox my friend, but he was dealing money markets for a
• 45:36
  family office. And you know, they were a family
• 45:38
  office, you know, somewhere in the range of 50 to 100 million
• 45:42
  was their office for a bunch of families.
• 45:44
  And basically they were Long story short, they were on the
• 45:47
  other side of a trade of JP Morgan and JP Morgan.
• 45:49
  Normally when things go in their favor, it's like, what's a few
• 45:52
  billion between friends? But then when they're on the
• 45:53
  losing side of the trade, it's like, yo, they were trying to
• 45:55
  get the federal government to backstop them for a few billion.
• 45:58
  So it's like, oh, when when Jamie Dimon's like, hey, we owe
• 46:01
  you a few billion. What's a few billion belong
• 46:02
  friends. But if you owe Jamie Dimon a
• 46:04
  billion, you bet your ass is going to find a way to get blood
• 46:06
  from a stone. So basically there was this, not
• 46:09
  to get the details of it, basically they were short and my
• 46:12
  buddy was long and they basically closed out and said
• 46:14
  that these were net neutral trades.
• 46:16
  Well, yeah, that works great if you're short.
• 46:18
  That works horrible if you're long and the short closes and
• 46:21
  basically drops the price. So my point is, you know, they
• 46:24
  can manipulate the bond markets, they can manipulate the stock
• 46:27
  market, they can manipulate the precious metals markets through
• 46:30
  these options of shorts and longs.
• 46:32
  But if you're taking physical, you know, you buy Bitcoin and
• 46:35
  you take self custody yourself, there's no way for them to
• 46:38
  manipulate. Yeah, they can manipulate the
• 46:39
  price here and there, but at the end of the day, if more people
• 46:42
  are taking self custody than are letting play in these paper
• 46:45
  games, whether it is in any of the, you know, the Bitcoin
• 46:48
  treasury companies, whether it's in any of the ETFs, when it's in
• 46:52
  any of these long and short contracts, whether you're doing
• 46:54
  any of these funky things on Polymarket or Kochi.
• 46:57
  Like if you have your physical Bitcoin and you can self custody
• 47:00
  yourself and you can send it out with using your own node, this
• 47:03
  makes you the most self sovereign.
• 47:05
  This makes you the most resilient to people manipulating
• 47:08
  the markets. This makes you the most
• 47:10
  resilient. You know, like Opti and I, not
• 47:11
  that we have any Bitcoin, but if we did, the going rate of it
• 47:14
  right now is $13 million per Bitcoin.
• 47:16
  And I know people are like, wait, but I could buy it right
• 47:18
  now for 90K. It's like, yeah, well, if you
• 47:20
  want my Bitcoin, it's $13 million.
• 47:22
  And even then I'll consider selling you some of the little
• 47:24
  bit of Bitcoin that I do have. But I don't know, that's just
• 47:27
  end rent there. I think like this just shows the
• 47:29
  importance of don't play that rigged game.
• 47:31
  Play your own game. And by playing your own game,
• 47:33
  not only is it like, hey, like, you know, not a I, I hate to, to
• 47:38
  bash on the gold bugs, but it's like they're like, well, they're
• 47:40
  manipulating markets. Well, it turns out the gold bugs
• 47:42
  are right. But the reason they lost is
• 47:44
  because they let the paper games beat them.
• 47:46
  And I know a lot of the, the, the boomers or the traditional
• 47:49
  generation say like, oh, well, like you want the big boys to
• 47:52
  come into the arena, such as the large financial institutions.
• 47:55
  You want these, the large headphones, you want all them.
• 47:58
  Like, obviously that's going to be more beneficial to your bags
• 48:01
  in the long run. But at the end of the day, if
• 48:03
  you are not playing the paper games, that's where the true
• 48:06
  wealth begins. That's where, oh, like, you
• 48:08
  know, I thought I was worth $1,000,000 on paper.
• 48:10
  And then all of a sudden I said something against a marginalized
• 48:14
  class or against the, the group that's in power.
• 48:16
  And all of a sudden that money that I thought I had is gone.
• 48:19
  Where if you have it in self custody and you're running your
• 48:22
  own node, there is no way that they can stop you from using
• 48:24
  your own Bitcoin, barring they kill you to do it.
• 48:27
  And I hate saying, but you know, allegedly, allegedly, you know,
• 48:29
  but we're not advocating for violence here.
• 48:31
  But I just think that having your own Bitcoin in self
• 48:34
  custody, that is the revolution stationary idea, that is the
• 48:37
  thing that shows true wealth, that is what's going to help you
• 48:41
  and your family and your legacy live on forever is by buying
• 48:43
  Bitcoin and taking itself custody and rent there.
• 48:48
  Well, I don't really believe in living on forever, but I have.
• 48:51
  I agree with the general sentiment.
• 48:52
  I agree with the general sentiment.
• 48:54
  But yeah, I think that's, that's kind of that's why I wanted to
• 48:57
  talk about this today because you know, if you're, if you're
• 49:01
  not really thinking of connecting the dots here, you're
• 49:03
  like, OK, cool. Like, you know, silver's hitting
• 49:05
  all time high. Like I, I, I haven't talked to
• 49:07
  my dad, but I know he does have some silver bags.
• 49:10
  So I'm sure if he saw the price, he's going to be like, I'm the
• 49:13
  best trader ever. But when I saw this story, I'm
• 49:17
  like, dude, this reminds me of GameStop.
• 49:19
  This reminds me of that whole saga.
• 49:22
  This reminds me of anytime you 2008 financial crisis, like
• 49:27
  anytime like you said, when the banks are caught off sides,
• 49:31
  they're never going to take that loss.
• 49:33
  And the only way now to really protect yourself, obviously we
• 49:37
  are biased, but it's to put as much of your wealth as you can
• 49:41
  in Bitcoin. And once it's in cold storage,
• 49:44
  they can never turn off your Bitcoin.
• 49:46
  Like yes, if you leave it on exchange, there's all kinds of
• 49:49
  shenanigans that can happen. There's all kinds of things that
• 49:51
  they can do. They can essentially do the same
• 49:53
  thing, but once it's in cold storage, they can't stop this.
• 49:58
  And so I think another point here is what we've seen happen
• 50:03
  in gold and silver this year, I think is really throwing a
• 50:07
  wrench into the idea of diminishing returns.
• 50:11
  It's just where we are right now.
• 50:13
  People are more comfortable with silver and gold than they are
• 50:16
  with Bitcoin. But there will be a point where,
• 50:19
  as Ruston always likes to say, the mother of all supply shocks
• 50:23
  will happen and Bitcoin is going to RIP past everyone's models.
• 50:29
  It's really going to expose the system for what it is.
• 50:32
  But we're starting to see signs of this play out, you know, in
• 50:35
  different kind of areas in the traditional financial markets.
• 50:39
  The latest one is obviously the silver markets, the, the one
• 50:43
  we've been covering all week, the JP Morgan strategy kind of
• 50:47
  attack like if it's not becoming obvious to you that there's
• 50:51
  something going on in the system and the house always wins, you
• 50:56
  know, what's that saying? I got AI got a short bridge over
• 50:59
  a long river to sell you or whatever it is.
• 51:02
  It's just, it's just nuts that people can look at this stuff
• 51:04
  and not see what we see. But again, we've been in this
• 51:07
  for a while. We kind of have our have morphed
• 51:10
  our world view around what Bitcoin does versus the rest of
• 51:14
  the system. But yeah, I saw the silver stuff
• 51:16
  and I'm like, man, it's it's so obvious.
• 51:19
  Yeah, jump in, Chris, and then we'll keep it moving.
• 51:20
  Yeah, one last thing. So in 1964, the minimum wage was
• 51:25
  5 silver quarters and for keeping numbers easy, about a
• 51:28
  silver quarter was about point .2 of a Troy oz.
• 51:32
  So 5 silver quarters is a full oz.
• 51:34
  So obviously with silver hitting an all time high, so 1964 the
• 51:38
  minimum wage was 5 silver quarters that had a melt value
• 51:40
  of about $15. And I know the left or more, you
• 51:43
  know, people on the left are liberals are always talking
• 51:46
  about we need to raise the federal minimum wage is only
• 51:47
  725, which is, you know, pretty criminal if you think about it
• 51:50
  with trying to live in this day and age.
• 51:52
  But if we had a hard money standard, you'd just say 5
• 51:54
  silver quarters and rounding up is about 1 Troy oz.
• 51:56
  That means that right now, with gold prices being at what, 5556?
• 52:00
  Dollars 56. So that means that you'd be
• 52:03
  getting $56 per hour as your minimum wage if we used a hard
• 52:07
  money or, you know, this ties in the whole Bitcoiners silver, you
• 52:11
  know, the hard money advocates of the world that like basically
• 52:14
  we don't have a crisis of hard money.
• 52:16
  We have a crisis of printed Fiat money.
• 52:19
  And that has caused so many of the problems, you know, fix the
• 52:21
  money, fix the world. And that part of that's true.
• 52:23
  Imagine, you know, $56 per hour as, you know, minimum wage.
• 52:27
  And then you assume that jobs that are more even senior than
• 52:29
  that are getting paid much more than that.
• 52:31
  So that would fix a lot of things things and obviously that
• 52:33
  is not beneficial to the ruling class or to the elites.
• 52:36
  You know, that is basically saying that people have more
• 52:39
  purchasing power, they can buy more things.
• 52:40
  They're not under the the gun or under the thumb of, you know,
• 52:44
  the systems that are built today that enrich the elites and they
• 52:47
  keep the poor in the middle class hollowed out.
• 52:50
  So I definitely think, you know, buying Bitcoin and, you know,
• 52:52
  taking itself custody is more the revolutionary act.
• 52:54
  And it just shows the hard money standard shows that you can live
• 52:57
  a better life on that standard. Yeah, I just did some quick
• 53:00
  maths and you guys could. You guys know I suck at math,
• 53:03
  but $56 per hour times 40 hours a week times 52 equals $116,480
• 53:14
  a year. Imagine that being minimum wage.
• 53:18
  That's minimum wage, yeah. Like.
• 53:21
  It's nuts. It's absolutely nuts.
• 53:23
  All right, guys, let's keep it moving.
• 53:24
  We do have some Bitcoin news for you guys and then what we're
• 53:27
  going to end the week with some with some real opium and some
• 53:30
  bullish stuff here, so we'll be right back.
• 53:34
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  code simply. Alright guys, so very quickly
• 56:12
  we'll start with this one. So apparently Thailand to
• 56:16
  introduce the 0% tax on Bitcoin gains traded on local exchanges.
• 56:22
  Not not perfect, but Thailand introduced zero capital gains
• 56:25
  tax on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies traded on
• 56:27
  national exchanges licensed by the Thai SEC.
• 56:31
  This move aims, of course, to attract foreign investment and
• 56:33
  help Thailand become a central hub for digital assets.
• 56:36
  Here's some key details. Thailand's new rule removes
• 56:38
  personal income tax on capital gains from Bitcoin and other
• 56:42
  digital tokens, but only when trading happens on license
• 56:44
  exchange brokers or dealers approved by the Thai SEC.
• 56:49
  This means profits made on unlicensed platforms or overseas
• 56:52
  platforms does not get this benefit and may still be taxed.
• 56:55
  Which is going to be kind of interesting how they're able to
• 56:58
  follow all that. But anyways, in addition to it,
• 57:00
  crypto related income such as mining reward staking remains
• 57:03
  taxable under standard rules. So as you can see, it's not
• 57:09
  perfect, but I, I would argue this is moving in the right
• 57:12
  direction. I, I would like to see more
• 57:14
  countries do something similar. And at the same time, a former
• 57:18
  Thai official is basically saying that we are going to do a
• 57:21
  strategic Bitcoin reserve or urging their government to do a
• 57:25
  strategic Bitcoin reserve. So things are heating up on the
• 57:28
  nation state level as as I was joking with and I, I'm going to
• 57:33
  clean up the joke, Chris. So, you know, I'll clean up the
• 57:36
  joke. Chris heard the the uncensored
• 57:39
  version of it. But you know, I guess maybe
• 57:42
  Bitcoiners are getting girlfriends this year.
• 57:44
  They just might be in for a little surprise when they get
• 57:46
  them when they get the girlfriends.
• 57:49
  So hey, a lot of countries are starting to, I, I think very
• 57:53
  clearly make moves into positioning themselves to
• 57:58
  attract Bitcoiners. Now, are they perfect?
• 58:02
  No. But I think as we've been saying
• 58:04
  for a while, it does start to open the Overton window here
• 58:07
  where I think, well, rather maybe what I hope would happen
• 58:12
  is in the US, we see the best rules we can surrounding this
• 58:17
  obviously just purely eliminated capital gains.
• 58:20
  Treat Bitcoiners money, you know, money shouldn't be taxed
• 58:24
  unless you're counting inflation as a tax.
• 58:26
  But hey, Thailand removes capital gains if they're traded
• 58:29
  on Thai approved exchanges. So I guess maybe it's a step in
• 58:34
  the right direction. But you can see the nation state
• 58:38
  game theory is kind of playing out in real time, which you kind
• 58:41
  of love to see. I'm I'm not really going to be
• 58:44
  too mad about this. So Chris, you want to jump in on
• 58:47
  this or I do have an update on the strategy S&P 500 stuff if
• 58:51
  you don't have anything to add to this?
• 58:53
  Yeah. I mean, I, I think this just
• 58:54
  goes to show that, you know, the nation states, and I know our
• 58:58
  boy Nolan has talked about this for many, many years, that
• 59:02
  basically the governments are in the business of trying to retain
• 59:06
  or attract their citizens or future citizens to their
• 59:09
  countries. And I think, you know, obviously
• 59:11
  Nolan's talked about this. Obviously Max Keiser's talked
• 59:14
  about this. Governments like Bitcoin has
• 59:16
  helped even the playing field for countries of trying to just,
• 59:21
  instead of going to the best or most prosperous area like
• 59:24
  countries would be like, hey, we'll be favourable in terms of
• 59:26
  Bitcoin and taxes and things like that and businesses and
• 59:29
  they're trying to compete to get global mindshare and basically
• 59:33
  sacks into their jurisdiction. And by saying, hey, Thailand
• 59:36
  saying, hey, we're going to go 0 Bitcoin capital gains tax, they
• 59:39
  are trying to incentivize entrepreneurs and people with
• 59:42
  vast amounts of wealth to move to those places in order to try
• 59:45
  and build up their communities and make it better and more
• 59:48
  fair. And I think that it also puts
• 59:50
  pressure on the legacy governments or the, you know,
• 59:53
  the hegemonies of the world, the Chinas, the US, the Russias of
• 59:56
  the world to try and have a better, better deal or a better
• 1:00:00
  bargain to keep people and to or to entice people to keep coming
• 1:00:04
  to those nations. So I do think, you know, we've
• 1:00:06
  talked about hash wars, we've talked about, you know, the
• 1:00:09
  software of it all with hash rate.
• 1:00:10
  We've talked about it with mindshare with Bitcoiners and
• 1:00:13
  kind of the digital nomad. And I think that trend is only
• 1:00:16
  going to keep continuing of the countries that are.
• 1:00:18
  Of lesser, you know, lesser economic status are going to try
• 1:00:23
  incentivize entrepreneurs and bitcoiners to come to their
• 1:00:25
  jurisdictions. And I think we're only going to
• 1:00:26
  see that trend accelerate over the coming years.
• 1:00:29
  Yeah, without a doubt. I think it's happening in real
• 1:00:31
  time, but it happened so slowly that you forget all of this
• 1:00:35
  really started, you know what, a year ago.
• 1:00:38
  Yes, there's been kind of like movement in the right direction,
• 1:00:43
  but in the last year specifically, the one in mind I
• 1:00:46
  have is the Czech Republic. You know, Czech Republic
• 1:00:48
  completely limited capital gains and it all kind of came out.
• 1:00:53
  I know Czech Republic is a really good Bitcoin country, but
• 1:00:57
  it really all started when Trump came out pro Bitcoin.
• 1:01:00
  And then the most recent story to me that really kind of sheds
• 1:01:03
  light on this idea that it's not just a theory, it's actually
• 1:01:06
  playing out is what's happening in China.
• 1:01:08
  Again, we just covered this this week where China is now back to
• 1:01:12
  being the third most. Oh wait, I I forget what the
• 1:01:15
  framing is like. Third highest rate I guess.
• 1:01:18
  Yeah, yeah, exactly. Like they have the most miners
• 1:01:21
  now, third most miners back in China, even though they banned
• 1:01:25
  Bitcoin a couple of years ago. And it's like.
• 1:01:27
  I I never bought that narrative personally.
• 1:01:29
  I know they were at like 40, they were at like 4045%.
• 1:01:33
  But even when you're looking at the numbers, it dropped to like
• 1:01:35
  2025%, which is true. Obviously they had their mining
• 1:01:38
  ban, but I think it was twofold. I think there was people that
• 1:01:41
  did it in secret, definitely. And then I think there was
• 1:01:43
  people that either that didn't do it in secret and tried to pay
• 1:01:46
  off government official, allegedly, allegedly, or three,
• 1:01:49
  the government was like, hey, we're confiscating these mines.
• 1:01:51
  And yeah, they may not be doing anything.
• 1:01:53
  They may not turn them on afterwards.
• 1:01:54
  But you know, I do think we're seeing the swing of like, hey,
• 1:01:57
  we want the hash rate here in China.
• 1:01:59
  I think, you know, not to say to steal one from WikiLeaks, but
• 1:02:02
  like and Satoshi, but like kicking the hornet's nest.
• 1:02:06
  I think when Trump was like, we want all, we want every hash
• 1:02:09
  rate and we want every Bitcoin mined in the United States.
• 1:02:11
  I think that put China and Russia and a lot of countries on
• 1:02:13
  notice. Like I think if you, you know,
• 1:02:15
  in the less Trumpian way of him being like, yeah, like we're,
• 1:02:18
  we're, we're pro Bitcoin and crypto.
• 1:02:19
  Like if he what he said like that and was less bombastic
• 1:02:23
  about it, I think less people would have taken notice of it
• 1:02:25
  personally. So, but I, I, I mean, maybe to
• 1:02:27
  our own detriment, he kind of said that obviously it's not a
• 1:02:30
  good thing to have hash rate only located in one jurisdiction
• 1:02:34
  that puts a lot of risk on the network.
• 1:02:36
  So maybe it's kind of good that he said it in the way that he
• 1:02:37
  did. But it is very interesting that
• 1:02:39
  I think a lot of countries are like, oh shit.
• 1:02:41
  Like we need to have a plan on this and we need to have a plan
• 1:02:43
  on this yesterday. Yeah, without a doubt, one 100%.
• 1:02:47
  All right, I'm going to quickly go through this update this
• 1:02:49
  because we have seen a lot of strategy stuff in the news.
• 1:02:53
  Well, Strategy once again failed to join the S&P 500 and they
• 1:02:58
  actually added SanDisk Corp will join the SP 500 today instead of
• 1:03:05
  Sailor. I doubt Sailor really cares at
• 1:03:10
  this point, but it's just interesting to see that the full
• 1:03:15
  blown attack from Wall Street is currently happening on Strategy.
• 1:03:22
  I don't really think it has anything to do with whether
• 1:03:25
  they're, you know, solvent, whether their business is going
• 1:03:28
  well. I think we all know it has
• 1:03:30
  something to do with the fact that they've gone all in on
• 1:03:32
  Bitcoin. So quick little update on that
• 1:03:35
  one. But Chris, you want to you want
• 1:03:38
  to chime in on this. I know we've been talking about
• 1:03:39
  the S&P 500, the JP Morgan saga all year, all week.
• 1:03:43
  So I don't know if you want to chime in a little and then we'll
• 1:03:45
  then we'll wrap. It up well, it's very
• 1:03:47
  interesting. So strategy based on their
• 1:03:49
  basically just their stock price, their market cap is 8.25
• 1:03:53
  billion. That doesn't seem right, but
• 1:03:56
  obviously when you account for their Bitcoin on their books,
• 1:04:00
  let me do the quick numbers here.
• 1:04:03
  Let's just call it 640,000 * 90 Ki mean that's 57 billion right
• 1:04:10
  there of just Bitcoin on their books, excluding just their, you
• 1:04:12
  know, stock price. So their stock price plus their
• 1:04:15
  Bitcoin holdings or if you just want to do with their Bitcoin
• 1:04:17
  holdings is at 57 billion where SanDisk Corp is only at 32
• 1:04:22
  billion. So you know by the comparison,
• 1:04:24
  it's like OK, like MicroStrategy is almost double what SanDisk
• 1:04:29
  Corporation is for market cap. I know there's other
• 1:04:31
  requirements. They have to have six quarters
• 1:04:33
  of positive GD, positive revenue growth or I, I forget what the
• 1:04:37
  wording of it is. Like there's all these different
• 1:04:38
  things, but at what point? Like how long is this charade
• 1:04:41
  going to go on where it almost seems too apparent like we're
• 1:04:44
  already there but how long do they let this Chirae like
• 1:04:47
  charade go on of like not including them?
• 1:04:50
  Yeah. And I think that's kind of the
• 1:04:52
  greater the, the theme of what we're seeing, especially on
• 1:04:55
  today's episode, it's like it's becoming very obvious that as
• 1:05:02
  much as they have to now kind of be a little more lenient around
• 1:05:06
  Bitcoin because the narratives have changed and people are a
• 1:05:08
  little more acceptance of it. They're doing whatever they can
• 1:05:11
  to fight Bitcoin in in any capacity that they still have.
• 1:05:15
  And I think this is just one of those examples as well.
• 1:05:18
  It's like, I mean, they're doing strategies doing well.
• 1:05:22
  If if you look at everything from like a Bitcoiners
• 1:05:24
  perspective, if you're looking at it from like a triad 5
• 1:05:27
  perspective, you're like, yeah, we we're not going to add this
• 1:05:29
  thing. Like we, we don't trust this
• 1:05:31
  Bitcoin thing. We don't trust this sailor guy.
• 1:05:33
  This is not what's going to be added.
• 1:05:35
  And and you know, they have the right to do that.
• 1:05:37
  But when you look at kind of their numbers, you're like, I
• 1:05:39
  mean, but seems like they're doing better than anyone else.
• 1:05:43
  60 to 70% of the companies are like zombie companies basically.
• 1:05:46
  They have debt that's growing faster than they can pay it off.
• 1:05:48
  It's like, oh, well, it's OK if we include those companies, but
• 1:05:51
  you know, God forbid something's you know, doing something else.
• 1:05:54
  And this is not to be pro micro strategy or the other way.
• 1:05:56
  But it's just like when the S&P 5 hundreds, the returns are
• 1:06:00
  really done because of the magnificent 7.
• 1:06:02
  What is it? The Google, Meta, Facebook,
• 1:06:04
  Apple? I included Meta and Facebook
• 1:06:07
  twice. But you know, Google, Netflix,
• 1:06:09
  Amazon all like all the top 7 corporations that, you know,
• 1:06:13
  NVIDIA and Microsoft. Like so when all those
• 1:06:15
  corporations are basically driving the majority of the
• 1:06:18
  returns of the SP500 and then it's like, oh, you know, we got
• 1:06:21
  to keep these other, you know, 504 hundred laggard companies,
• 1:06:25
  you know, so to speak, you know, we're just, we're protecting
• 1:06:27
  investors here. I don't know if they have a leg
• 1:06:29
  to stand on, but that I don't know.
• 1:06:31
  I digress. Yeah, I mean, it's the S&P 7 +
• 1:06:38
  493 zombie companies, but hey, you know, sailor, we don't want
• 1:06:42
  to add that toxic thing to here because it it might make us look
• 1:06:47
  bad. Anyways, anyways, let's let's
• 1:06:50
  keep it rolling. Let's hit the culture.
• 1:06:53
  I'm I'm going to end with some some opium from Mark from Mark
• 1:06:56
  Moss. I I really like this tweet, so
• 1:06:58
  we're going to chat about it. I want to give a shout out to
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• 1:09:01
  Alrighty then guys, I saw this one day late and I, I was over
• 1:09:06
  at Nico's for Thanksgiving. So I, I, you know, didn't
• 1:09:09
  actually have to have these Thanksgiving conversations with
• 1:09:12
  my friends and family, but I found it pretty interesting.
• 1:09:15
  Mark Moss with with that hopium tweet yesterday or rather 2 days
• 1:09:19
  ago and he goes have fun with all your Bitcoin Thanksgiving
• 1:09:21
  conversations. Every year except 2024 Bitcoin
• 1:09:25
  has been way off the annual high and 2025 is no exception.
• 1:09:29
  The average drawdown is 37.16% from year high.
• 1:09:32
  The median drawdown was 32.92% from year high.
• 1:09:35
  Fun fact, Bitcoin's epic bull run in 2017 still saw Bitcoin
• 1:09:39
  price down -58.96% at 8001, $118 on Thanksgiving and was only
• 1:09:46
  just weeks away from its December peak of $19,783.
• 1:09:52
  I don't know if he's necessarily saying we're recreating the 2017
• 1:09:55
  bull run, but I, I do like the general sentiment.
• 1:09:59
  It's like I know we've been saying for a while and I, and
• 1:10:02
  this is my working kind of case right now is like we are kind of
• 1:10:06
  entering a new era in Bitcoin. I believe since the institutions
• 1:10:11
  came into Bitcoin and things, things are just like seemingly
• 1:10:15
  fundamentally different. And I'm, I'm kind of leaning on
• 1:10:20
  the side of before your cycle being over.
• 1:10:23
  But it is interesting how Bitcoin kind of just does its
• 1:10:27
  thing and and it does kind of rhyme constantly and none of the
• 1:10:31
  stuff outside of Bitcoin really affect anything.
• 1:10:33
  But if Mark Moss is saying we still have a 2017 type run left
• 1:10:37
  in US Q4, sign me up. Yes, exactly.
• 1:10:45
  So I don't know if he let we could go through a little bit.
• 1:10:48
  So we'll go 2015 November 26 price on Thanksgiving 328, the
• 1:10:53
  calendar year high $464, down from year high 136.
• 1:10:58
  Percentage down from year high 29,000 or 29%.
• 1:11:01
  Let's go 2017. You know, we just did that one
• 1:11:04
  $8118 on Thanksgiving calendar year high 19,000 783.
• 1:11:10
  You know what Mack Moss needed on this?
• 1:11:12
  He needed to tell us the dates for the year high because
• 1:11:15
  because that would really exactly like did it pump before
• 1:11:20
  Thanksgiving and then it dumped or was it Thanksgiving was low
• 1:11:23
  and then it pumped? See like 2018?
• 1:11:28
  I don't know, maybe. 2018 I I think that one's flipped.
• 1:11:31
  That 1 was definitely like calendar year high.
• 1:11:34
  Because I remember in December it like ripped and then
• 1:11:36
  basically like the new year or like right around December or
• 1:11:38
  Christmas, that's when it crashed.
• 1:11:39
  I believe 2018 like that was the blow off top.
• 1:11:42
  But I could be wrong there. Let's see, every year except 24,
• 1:11:46
  Bitcoin has been way off to annual high and 2020.
• 1:11:49
  I think he, I think he's saying essentially.
• 1:11:52
  Yeah, December 4th, 2017, it was hitting its all time high for
• 1:11:57
  that year right around there. So 17 sorry was the year that it
• 1:12:00
  was like on the trajectory towards.
• 1:12:03
  OK, well, what do I know? I just keep being reminded of,
• 1:12:08
  you know, that one meme of that kid playing football and he's
• 1:12:12
  like, I'm not going to lie, they had me in the first half.
• 1:12:16
  Yeah, Yep. But we, we pulled it out in the
• 1:12:18
  second-half. Now look, that meme is, is
• 1:12:21
  running on its last breath at this point because we're about
• 1:12:27
  two days away from December. And then that's four weeks.
• 1:12:34
  I don't know, man. Can we pull a Hail Mary out of
• 1:12:36
  the bag here? Can Bitcoin still do something
• 1:12:38
  by the end of the year? In inverse part inverse.
• 1:12:43
  Part to the upside, finally. I don't know, man, I'm still
• 1:12:47
  feeling kind of bullish here. I will be in denial until we're
• 1:12:52
  going all the way down until until we're breaking down past
• 1:12:56
  70. I'm still in denial.
• 1:12:58
  So that's my stance, you know, guilty as charged.
• 1:13:01
  I. Still, you could say that we've
• 1:13:05
  been in a bull run since January 3rd, 2009, you know.
• 1:13:08
  What I mean, well, we totally have.
• 1:13:10
  I mean that, that is, that is without a doubt still holding
• 1:13:13
  true. If there's one meme that holds
• 1:13:15
  true, it's we've been in a bull run since 2000. 9 on a legendary
• 1:13:19
  run. Generational run here.
• 1:13:23
  Is it 17? Wow, we're going to 17.
• 1:13:25
  That's crazy. Anyways, I just, I thought I'd
• 1:13:29
  leave you with a little bit of that guys.
• 1:13:30
  So Chris, thank you so much. It's always fun when you come on
• 1:13:35
  the show. Everyone out there.
• 1:13:37
  I hope you guys had a good Thanksgiving.
• 1:13:39
  If you're not in America, I hope you had a good Thursday.
• 1:13:42
  I don't know if you guys are doing Black Friday shopping, but
• 1:13:45
  we do have our merch on sale. I know you can get a bit key on
• 1:13:48
  sale currently. So if you are Black Friday
• 1:13:52
  shopping, you should be getting some Bitcoin stuff.
• 1:13:56
  This is this is the best time of the year to get it.
• 1:13:59
  And yeah man, we'll see you. We'll see you on Monday, people.
• 1:14:05
  Guys, have a good one. Eat some good food, get outside,
• 1:14:08
  get some exercise, all that good stuff.
• 1:14:10
  We'll be back on Monday. Peace.
• 1:14:13
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• 1:14:17
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• 1:14:20
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