Latest / Crosstabs / Fight Night in Eugene

Transcript

Fight Night in Eugene · Crosstabs

• 0:03
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I think, yes.
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_01: You know what would be great, Reagan,
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_01: is if every meeting in state government was recorded
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_01: and we could all just go watch it anytime like they do on Olus with
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: the actual meetings.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_01: But all the internal meetings had to be recorded.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_01: You could never meet outside of recording somebody.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_01: That would be the greatest podcast ever.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: There are,
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: I would imagine,
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: an enormous number of meetings at all levels of government that take place via Zoom
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: and that may have innocuous sounding titles that are all fascinating meetings
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: that are never recorded and that people don't take minutes for.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: And I think there's a pretty good question,
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: probably both from journalists and the public,
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: about whether that even should be allowed.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: But sometimes you can't get stuff done without having some really uncomfortable,
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: frank conversations that would make everybody look bad,
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: even though they're actually discussing the important issues.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: That's true.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: Brian... Oh, go ahead.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_01: I was just going to say, you're probably right.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, there probably are a lot of things that shouldn't be discussed in public,
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_01: right, that happen.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_01: And it's not...
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_01: Because you're kind of workshopping a lot of stuff.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_01: Like there's a lot of ideas,
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_01: a lot of things that people talk about and just say that are,
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_01: you know, like when we're working on bills, right?
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_01: You're like, oh, I wonder, you know, what's the language on this one?
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, that's going to go too far.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_01: Then that's going to, you know, piss off so and so.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know,
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_01: so some of that stuff,
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_01: you just don't need to have it out there, but it would make for interesting work.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_01: That's for sure.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: And it's not like all that information is secret.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: It's known.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: It's just sometimes putting words to it makes people feel uncomfortable.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_01: Fair.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: What I was going to say is I'm more interested in sports, Bryan.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: And there was a fight night down in Eugene last night.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: Did you watch the match?
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_01: I heard that.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_01: UFC Thursday night, huh?
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: So I've only seen...
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: I think we have two perfect opinions because I believe you watched the debate
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: and I've watched clips, but not seen the full context.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: And I think there's obviously some people who have watched the whole debate.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: I think a lot of our listeners will watch the whole debate.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: But I think most Oregonians may only engage with it through small clips.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: So we get both perspectives.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: But I want to start with yours since you have the more more context.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: What did you think of the debate?
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it was good.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_01: It was way better than,
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_01: for instance, the primary debates, which I thought would have been a lot more...
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_01: He did a little bit more, you know, change in policy between the two.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, those were just straight up boring, the primary debate.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_01: So this one was at least good to see them,
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_01: you know, trading some barbs, being able to clearly don't like each other.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, that is a clear takeaway for me.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_01: Like those two really don't like each other at all.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: I think on Substance, You know, they're both super smart people.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, there's no doubt.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_01: I think on Substance, I still lack, from both of them, I still lack a vision.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_01: And the only vision I feel like I get from Christine is whatever Tina's done, it isn't working.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: And then what I get from Tina is we're doing all the things and we're getting there
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_01: and Rome wasn't built in a day kind of stuff, right?
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_01: Just got to give me time.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_01: But I'm not really getting a lot of concrete stuff out of that.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_01: I thought Drazen, on the personality side of the debate, I think Drazen clearly won it.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_01: Like even just the clip, which should be great.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_01: like we're creating a new drinking game where every time,
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_01: you know, Kotex says Trump, you got to drink.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_01: So I thought that was pretty good.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_01: That was a really good jab.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_01: And I thought it was...
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_01: Showed a little bit of personality out of Christine,
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_01: which I think is kind of, you know, a little levity, I guess, a little humor.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_01: It doesn't hurt.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_01: Like Trump,
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's what makes Trump such a good debater is he's just kind of funny,
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_01: you know?
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_01: And you got to kind of make yourself a likable.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_01: And so I think Christine made herself a little bit more likable than Tina.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_01: Tina's not a likable person in the policy wonk world.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_01: Like she's just,
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_01: she's good one-on-one,
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_01: but I think these debates are not good for her, which is probably why...
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_01: Why she doesn't like to do that many of them.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_01: She likes the boardroom.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_01: And I think she does better in that space.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: And then my last takeaway,
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_01: if you look at these two versus other governor candidates I've seen,
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_01: like debates that I've watched online, I don't think we're getting the best.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_01: And I just don't I don't know.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if it's them bringing each other down or we're just I just I walked away.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_01: I guess maybe that's good.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_01: I walked away wanting more.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_01: I wish the moderator would have let him go a little bit more.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_01: But all in all, I mean, we're going to talk about the polling, which is probably fair.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think he changed anybody's mind.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_01: So that's kind of where I'm at.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_01: At the end of the day, it didn't change any.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_01: Plus, there's probably no undecided voters watching
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_01: because apparently there's only 4% undecided anyways.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_01: So the reality is I don't think it changed many people's minds.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: And I mean,
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: it is hard in a heavily polarized environment with the 47,
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: 46, you know, dead heat, essentially.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: Oregon's pretty divided.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: Big shock there.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: I think just from the clips,
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: both of their teams,
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_00: as you would expect,
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: are attempting to play up their best clips and play down their worst clips.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: And nobody had a perfect night.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: I think that Republicans are pretty energized
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: because they don't feel like Kotick had very good answers to questions
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: about governing the state.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: And on a lot of those issues, she doesn't.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: Multiple times,
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: a friend of the pod,
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_00: Nigel, would say, I don't think that was an answer to the question.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: And on federal policy,
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: I think Drazen just has to tread very carefully because she knows Trump's unpopular,
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: but can't risk losing the Republican base, who is still...
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: Even if they don't like everything Trump's done is wary of criticism of those things.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: And so that was that was her kind of space to,
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: try to wade through a little bit and and doesn't have she's not going
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: to go out there and be new Mueller who was who was against Trump.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: She's not going to go out there and be more Susan Collins or somebody like that
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: because she doesn't have the kind of record she can depend on to kind of say,
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: you know, I delivered because she's been a minority.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: There's limits to what you can do in the minority.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, I would say both sides are sort of claiming victory.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: I think, like you said, the answer is probably somewhere in the middle.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: I think it depends on what you care about.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: If you care about state governance, You're going to like Drazen's answers.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_00: And if you care about federal issues, you're going to be more interested in Kotec's answers.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that's the division is what can we get people to care about?
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: And if, you know, I can't say on election day because most of it will already have been cast.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: But when people get their ballots,
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_00: if the main issues in front of them are national issues,
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_00: federal issues,
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_00: It really doesn't I don't think it matters what Drazen does,
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_00: whether she opposes Trump or supports him or somewhere in the middle.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_00: I think we're just going to it's going to be a midterm and it's going to be
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_00: a referendum on Republican majorities in Congress.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_00: And if people think that the state is more responsible for their lives,
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_00: then they're going to go for they're going to go for Drazen or leave it.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_00: You know, some progressives will leave it blank.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: And that costs Kotech just as much as a vote for Drazen does.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_00: So yeah.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: I agree.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think it's a huge moving of the needle.
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_00: maybe a slight edge for Drazen because I do think I agree that she performs better
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: in debate settings than Kotech does.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: And this time she doesn't have Betsy in the middle of it who was...
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_00: Can throw really good quotes out there,
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: Betsy Johnson, and can be very magnetic in a debate setting.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_00: So I think that she doesn't have that to draw away from this time.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: And so maybe that's an advantage for Drazen because there's less for Kotech to hide
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_00: behind or point at other people who are at fault.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and we watched,
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_01: Vicky and I had front row at one of those debates with Betsy and Drazen and down
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_01: in Bend, we went to it and we got to sit in the front row and see.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_01: And Betsy really can suck the oxygen out of a room, man.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, she's really good at,
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_01: like you said, dropping a quote, dropping a soundbite, dropping an F-bomb.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_01: And she knows how to pick those moments.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_01: And so that usually directs the attention towards her.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_01: And because you always want to say, oh, what is Betsy going to say?
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that's... And then this one, you're now... You just have the two, right?
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_01: There is no hiding.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_01: There's no...
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_01: It's your record versus...
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_01: And we've been saying this all along,
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_01: and it's clearly playing out like we've been talking about for months since
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_01: the primary.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_01: It's Trump versus Kotech is what Kotech's trying to make the battle,
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_01: and Drazen's trying to make it about Kotech versus Drazen, right?
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_01: And so...
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't know which one wins.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_01: If you look at the money side of things,
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_01: you know, Drazen,
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_01: if she doesn't get help from outside help, she's probably out of money in two weeks.
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, like cash on hand, I think I was looking this morning.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, basically Drazen's a little under a million or about, let's just call it a million.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_01: And Kotex got about eight million.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_01: And you got that Carpenter's Union sitting on like seven,
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_01: eight million and who knows what they're doing with it.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_01: So if you can't, because if the idea, so this is kind of transitioning into polling.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_01: If you say that 4% are undecided in this poll and we'll link to it in the show notes
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_01: if you haven't seen it on OPB commissioned a couple of polls.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_01: They did one for...
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_01: I found really at the end of the day,
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_01: if probably vote basically means that they're voting, right?
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_01: So if you look at the probabilities, it was 44-40.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_01: Christine.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_01: And then if you look at the liens, it was then 5% more go to Tina and only 2% go to Christine.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_01: And then the people that just maybe can't stomach Tina are voting for Brett Smith.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_01: That's kind of how I read that.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_01: And then it leaves you with ultimately 4% that wouldn't say who they're voting for.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_01: I don't even know if I call them undecided.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_01: So I think the persuasion game is over at this point,
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_01: but if you're out of money,
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_01: you can't, like Christine's got to continue to fight at the top, right?
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_01: You got to fight with messaging because you can't lose people.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_01: If Tina is the only one on the airwaves,
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_01: then she could probably erode some of that support, right?
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_01: So you need to maintain your fight in the airwaves.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_01: But the reality is that this is going to come down to who's more motivated to vote.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_01: Who's more motivated to get out the vote effort?
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_01: Who's going to make it happen?
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_01: And I think with that,
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_01: like we were even talking this morning on another call,
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_01: I think Tina did a pretty good job of trying to rally her base, right?
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_01: She went after the, she's like, no, I'm not going to repeal the cap and spin proposal.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not going to do this.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_01: I'm going to fight Trump.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_01: So she was kind of wedging into her base,
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_01: because I think this is going to come down to an enthusiasm race versus who's got
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_01: the better argument, the way I'm seeing it play out now.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_00: Well, in a new, not a new wrinkle, but one that I don't think has been widely reported yet.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_00: And I just sent you this tweet because I just saw it from Horvick.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_00: I got an alert a little earlier.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_00: So Democrats in 2022, so the last midterm, they had a 9.6 statewide registration advantage.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_00: So almost 10 points.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats are down over two points on that.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_00: So now it's Democrats plus 8%.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_00: And we're starting to approach,
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: and if that trend continues and that trend is not just people changing
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_00: to non-affiliated,
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_00: but actually being disaffected by Democrats and changing their opinion or based
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_00: on who's leaving the state,
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_00: if that begins to narrow too much more,
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_00: it starts to become territory where Republicans are competitive and Statewide,
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: again,
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_00: I'd say the legislature has bigger lag time because of the way the maps are drawn,
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_00: but that can be an indicator and is,
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_00: I would say,
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_00: a signal that Democrats want to pay attention to if their lead continues to shrink.
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_00: Because what happened on the coast is they used to hold all of the coastal seats
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_00: and slowly but surely the registration changed and not all of them even had
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_00: to flip Republican before the seats would flip.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_00: And now almost all the coast is red.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what kept them from having super majorities, basically, in both chambers.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_00: They relied on those seats for a long time and now they can't have them.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_00: And so they've had to go other places.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_00: They've had to go to Central Oregon and try to win more seats there.
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_00: And they've tried to, you know, had to go to Salem and try to win more seats there.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_00: Gotta pay attention to that.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't mean that Republicans are automatically going
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_00: to start winning everything,
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: but it creates more of a challenge for them if they don't have hard,
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_00: reliable Democrats.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_00: They have to go convince or find NAVs and others,
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_00: and that's just more expensive to do, harder to do.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that definitely tightens up the game.
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_01: And I've seen that in our competitive legislative seats.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_01: If you look at them, Republicans have had...
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_01: Besides Central Oregon, where it's going the other way, it's going left.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_01: But in some of the other seats,
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_01: Clackamas County,
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_01: Marion County kind of stuff,
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_01: we're kind of trending about that two-point advantage over the last four years
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_01: as well.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_01: And most of it is it's not really people running to the Republican Party.
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_01: They're leaving the Democratic Party.
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_00: Republicans are also losing.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_00: We're just losing a lot less voters than Democrats are.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_00: And pre-Trump,
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_00: Republicans routinely could keep Most seats in D plus five registration territory.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_00: And we would we would hold seats that had double digit advantages at times with
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_00: the right candidate.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_00: That's becoming less and less true in the Trump era as his as he continues to be.
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_00: And I think probably drags for some Oregon Republicans, especially in swing seats.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_00: So yeah.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_00: If we can get back to being able to win big seats like that,
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_00: it won't be 40 years between a Republican governor.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_00: It'll only be 10 or 15 every every once in a while between Republican governors,
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_00: which would be nice.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_00: It would be nice to have some check and balance.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_00: It would be nice to have a closer legislature.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and if you look at that polling,
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_01: if you look at what people care about and you get into cost of living,
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_01: cost of living is really a lot more of a...
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_01: And we had this conversation about this last night in the debate
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_01: and I didn't really...
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_01: I didn't walk away with either one of them going to be able to do anything on cost
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_01: of living for me.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_01: Now, in taxes, that should be a scenario.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_01: So that Drazen administration would be better for us on taxes, I would hope.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_01: But affordability in the state level,
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it could be in the fees thing, like lowering ODOT fees, title fees.
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_01: I think you could come out with something that would be...
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_01: A big boom there somewhere that really would cut.
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_01: I'm seeing some of this stuff in other governors across the state or the nation
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_01: that I'm not really kind of seeing come out of the Drazen camp on this stuff.
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_01: And then if you get into the next issue that people care about,
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_01: homelessness,
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_01: poor leadership,
• 17:14
  SPEAKER_01: housing affordability,
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_01: Democrats,
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_01: liberals,
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_01: and one-party rule,
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_01: that's all of the negatives that's driving the KOTAC administration down.
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_01: So I really think if you look at inflation, cost of living, that's a Trump problem.
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_01: Taxes, I think, is a state problem.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_01: And then everything else is really all what's dragging Kotech down.
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_01: So everybody knows they haven't solved the homeless problem.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_01: And you can't say we're working on it.
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_01: That's just a bunch of horseshit.
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_01: Drive through downtown Portland.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_01: You're not working on it.
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_01: It's horrible.
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_00: And why would it take more than four years for that work to happen,
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_00: I think is what most people are thinking.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_00: And I think Drazen gave some good answers on housing.
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_00: And we've done housing legislation, but it hasn't been as huge as it could be.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that...
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_00: Potentially,
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_00: Kotec pays some price for that because it hasn't really helped much on the price
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_00: of housing for most people,
• 18:13
  SPEAKER_00: even if there are some projects that have been able to get off the ground
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_00: and some housing that is able to be built because of those bills.
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_00: If it doesn't change the top line number,
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_00: then it's not going to end up being enough to help her in this particular race.
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_00: I'd say the last thing that I noticed about sort of the debate and everything is
• 18:33
  SPEAKER_00: that It seems like that Drazen has the feeling of momentum and RGA hadn't tweeted
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_00: about her race since she won the primary.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_00: And in competitive races,
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_00: in 2022,
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_00: they were throwing stuff out there every week on the races that they care about.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_00: And they did tweet about the debate.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_00: And so the key to watch there is,
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_00: and going back to the resources is,
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_00: I think Drazen's performance was good enough to hopefully spur some fundraising
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_00: for her potentially on some donors who may not have been all the way bought in.
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_00: But now I've seen multiple close polls and a good debate performance from Drazen
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_00: that might get some of them back in.
• 19:19
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe it doesn't get Phil Knight back in,
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_00: but there is other money out there that she does need and can help her compete.
• 19:26
  SPEAKER_00: And I think Kotech didn't convince anybody she's got this in the bag in that debate.
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the problem for Democrats is they would like to put this seat away
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_00: and they just can't yet.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_00: And and they don't want and the problem is,
• 19:42
  SPEAKER_00: is there isn't any other race in Oregon that is considered to be competitive,
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_00: aside from a handful of legislative elections,
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_00: which we're going to be talking about soon.
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_00: There is there's no congressional race.
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_00: There's no U.S. Senate.
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_00: the Senate race,
• 19:56
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_00: is is DBS is likely to do better than any Republican,
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_00: but there's no sign it's close.
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_00: There's no polling that's being leaked.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_00: There's none of that.
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_00: So it's the only race.
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_00: So Kotech,
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_00: without significant number of of Efficiencies to get basically has
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_00: to convince everybody to to go all the way in to help her out.
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_00: And some of those organizations definitely have.
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_00: But I think there's probably some still sitting on the sidelines that she would like
• 20:21
  SPEAKER_00: to get engaged.
• 20:24
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and Reagan, this is I gave this I gave a speech yesterday yesterday.
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_01: And this is what I talked about as I showed this poll.
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_01: I showed the John Braun poll where he's leading in Gluson Camp Perez in a congressional seat.
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_01: I was shocked.
• 20:41
  SPEAKER_01: That Trump won by three points.
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_01: And then I put Nevada governor's race.
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_01: The Minnesota governor's race is super tight.
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_01: And then couple that with other podcasts.
• 20:54
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you saw the Ruthless podcast or listened to it where they kind
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_01: of ran through All the congressionals that are up and most of those congressionals
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_01: where they're it's a Republican, they're only down like three, four points.
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_01: So it's not like the dip.
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_01: And what I say,
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_01: what we have on our side to be excited about is that in a Trump second term midterm.
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_01: it should be a bloodbath and it feels like it's going to be a bloodbath
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_01: if you listen to the media.
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_01: But if you kind of start digging into the numbers,
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_01: you kind of go,
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_01: you know what, we really just got to fix a couple of things here and there.
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_01: And it could turn out to be more like a 2024 scenario.
• 21:40
  SPEAKER_01: Where, you know,
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_01: where we could hold the Senate,
• 21:43
  SPEAKER_01: we could,
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_01: you know, we got to write the ship in Texas and some of those congressional seats.
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_01: There's a few of them that are going to be hard to get back.
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_01: But I mean, I think there's some opportunity and that exists here as well.
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_01: And it's because,
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_01: and I think Kotech's doing so bad compared to other congressional
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_01: or Senate things is just what we talked about in that polling.
• 22:04
  SPEAKER_01: If you start looking at what people care about, they're just not seeing her...
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_01: Basically make good on her promises from four years ago.
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_01: And I think the gas tax stuff lays into that.
• 22:17
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of this stuff lays into just this negativity and she's the face of it.
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_01: Whether she likes it or not, she's the face of it.
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_01: And you got to either find your way through it and you can't sit there and
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_01: and you have to find a way through it by convincing the voters.
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_01: That you have a plan to make their life a little bit better.
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_01: And you can't just say Trump,
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_01: Trump, Trump, and then hope everybody gets drunk and they forget about it, right?
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, the fear mongering, I think people are a little over that stuff, you know?
• 22:48
  SPEAKER_00: And I forgot to mention this, Bryan,
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_00: I've seen some tweets this morning of national Republican consultants,
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_00: advisors and stuff,
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_00: retweeting Drazen's ad saying it's very good,
• 22:59
  SPEAKER_00: the Trump, Trump, Trump, you know, who's going to protect us from Tina.
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_00: And so...
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_00: If that is landing,
• 23:07
  SPEAKER_00: I know that that makes sense to land well with the Republican consultant class,
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_00: but they don't just reshare any ad.
• 23:14
  SPEAKER_00: If that's landing with voters, that'll be a problem.
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_00: And I think for Kotech rather, I mean, that's going to help.
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_00: Drazen quite a bit.
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_00: If she finds that message and we may see other Republicans,
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_00: there might even be other Republicans out there that are similar to it.
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_00: I just haven't seen yet.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_00: But if they can get that as to be the message of October, then
• 23:38
  SPEAKER_00: We might be fine in some of these races.
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_00: I agree.
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_00: It's going to be kind of a knife fight everywhere if the polling is accurate,
• 23:43
  SPEAKER_00: especially on the West Coast where Republicans seem to be doing better and in
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_00: the Midwest where Democrats seem to be doing better.
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_00: And the same thing,
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_00: the thing is true is there's a lot of those places that have been one party rule for
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_00: a long time.
• 23:56
  SPEAKER_00: Iowa is one of them.
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_00: Oregon is one of them,
• 23:59
  SPEAKER_00: different sides of the aisle,
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_00: but that has seemed to create an opportunity for both of the minority parties
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_00: to make big gains.
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_00: Governors races in both of those states is what I'm thinking of.
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_00: And so the question is,
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_00: is this finally the election where people override their partisan preferences
• 24:19
  SPEAKER_00: for results and toss out incumbents of both parties?
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_00: Or is it more of the same,
• 24:25
  SPEAKER_00: which is at the end of the day, Iowa is going to revert back to being red.
• 24:28
  SPEAKER_00: Oregon is going to revert back to being blue and Texas is going to be red.
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_00: And so we'll see.
• 24:34
  SPEAKER_01: So that was my biggest point in the speech and the presentation that I'm giving
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_01: the groups out there.
• 24:44
  SPEAKER_01: This isn't about persuasion, it's about enthusiasm.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_01: We need to build that enthusiasm.
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_01: We need to get people fired up to say,
• 24:53
  SPEAKER_01: this is the race,
• 24:54
  SPEAKER_01: this governor's race is the race,
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_01: and it'll trickle down to other stuff if we get people to actually vote.
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_01: We need the 44-year-old plumber that's living
• 25:04
  SPEAKER_01: in Clackamas County that's working all day and hates the gas prices,
• 25:09
  SPEAKER_01: but hates the fact that he's Kids got to go to public school and,
• 25:13
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 25:14
  SPEAKER_01: get trounced by these these woke lefties
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_01: that are just feel like not giving them any good education or anything like that.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_01: But they just feel frustrated so they don't vote.
• 25:23
  SPEAKER_01: We need those people to say, hey, you know what?
• 25:26
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, here's I'm going to I'm going to turn out and vote.
• 25:28
  SPEAKER_01: And so hopefully things like this will get there to get them to do that.
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_01: Hopefully like.
• 25:34
  SPEAKER_01: Spencer Pratt coming to town,
• 25:36
  SPEAKER_01: I think, you know, getting people fired up to like, you know, Oregon isn't lost yet.
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_01: Even Horvick saying like people are leaving
• 25:42
  SPEAKER_01: the Democratic Party like it's not lost like Oregon is not lost.
• 25:46
  SPEAKER_01: The fact that we're even in this race.
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_01: During this time is written to me is like awesome to be honest with you.
• 25:53
  SPEAKER_01: I didn't think Christine would be at this point.
• 25:55
  SPEAKER_01: So, I mean, kudos to her campaign.
• 25:57
  SPEAKER_01: But really, I would say if I'm Tina Kotick right now, I fire my campaign staff.
• 26:05
  SPEAKER_01: Every one of them.
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_01: Get the fuck out of here.
• 26:08
  SPEAKER_01: You are killing me right now.
• 26:09
  SPEAKER_01: You are not prepping me right.
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_01: My ads are not good.
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_01: We are not resonating.
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_01: We are not moving the needle.
• 26:17
  SPEAKER_01: You're fired.
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_01: And the problem with Democrats in this state is they are so used to being in control
• 26:23
  SPEAKER_01: of everything.
• 26:25
  SPEAKER_01: That they just have not done.
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_01: And the only thing that they win is beating each other right now in these primaries,
• 26:33
  SPEAKER_01: you know, where the DSA is beating up, you know, the traditional consultants.
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_01: But I think Tina's staff needs to be fired.
• 26:39
  SPEAKER_01: If I was them right now, I'd fire some people.
• 26:43
  SPEAKER_01: I'd bring in some new people and say, give me some fresh what's working in Iowa.
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_01: Why is that guy destroying Republicans in Iowa?
• 26:54
  SPEAKER_01: Why is Ohio working?
• 26:57
  SPEAKER_01: What's going on in the Midwest, to your point, that's resonating?
• 27:02
  SPEAKER_01: Why is only, what's his face, Greg Abbott's only got a two-point lead in Texas?
• 27:08
  SPEAKER_01: What's happening there that you can get on with a message that would work in Oregon?
• 27:15
  SPEAKER_01: Because this whole idea of just pushing on Trump,
• 27:18
  SPEAKER_01: Trump has nothing to do with Oregon's problems.
• 27:21
  SPEAKER_01: It's all you, Tina Kotick.
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_01: And you need to convince people that you're not the problem.
• 27:27
  SPEAKER_01: And right now, Drayson's doing a good job of convincing people she's the problem.
• 27:31
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 27:31
  SPEAKER_00: And I think Trump's already unpopular.
• 27:33
  SPEAKER_00: So, yeah, you can try to tie Drazen to him, but their opinions are already formed of him.
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_00: And there are certainly some people that if they're anti-Trump, they're anti-Republican.
• 27:44
  SPEAKER_00: And Drazen isn't going to win those votes anyway.
• 27:45
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't matter what she does.
• 27:47
  SPEAKER_00: Even if she opposes Trump, they'll think she's lying.
• 27:49
  SPEAKER_00: So it doesn't win her any votes to go do that.
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_00: And so that's why I think.
• 27:54
  SPEAKER_00: I think the strategy has been very smart.
• 27:55
  SPEAKER_00: They've been able to thread the needle.
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_00: I agree.
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_00: We didn't expect this to be this close of a race, and now it is.
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_00: And there's a lot of credit to Drazen and our team for that.
• 28:08
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll just, we'll see.
• 28:10
  SPEAKER_01: If you're a listener of our show,
• 28:12
  SPEAKER_01: go to GOTVoregon.com and sign up to do ballot harvesting with us
• 28:17
  SPEAKER_01: and help us get this over the finish line.
• 28:19
  SPEAKER_01: That's a little plug for our little thing.
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_01: And if you want to see Spencer Pratt,
• 28:23
  SPEAKER_01: go to FightSocialismOregon.com and sign up for that as well.
• 28:26
  SPEAKER_01: So I will like that I helped get Spencer Pratt here.
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_01: So I, you know, I am helping put on that event.
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_01: So disclaimer, disclaimer, but, uh, Good job, Bryan.
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 28:38
  SPEAKER_01: I think what Spencer did in LA was he just changed the nature of politics
• 28:44
  SPEAKER_01: a little bit and said, Republicans, you have to take These issues head on.
• 28:49
  SPEAKER_01: The homeless issue, call it a drug issue.
• 28:51
  SPEAKER_01: Even though he didn't win, I mean, we expected him to win in LA.
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_01: That was the thing.
• 28:55
  SPEAKER_01: But we expected him to take second, which he should have.
• 28:58
  SPEAKER_01: And he showed that this is what happens when you ballot harvest
• 29:01
  SPEAKER_01: and you do mail-in voting and you have no safeguards on IDs and stuff.
• 29:07
  SPEAKER_01: This is what can happen in LA.
• 29:10
  SPEAKER_01: But he gets people fired up.
• 29:12
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm glad he's coming up.
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_01: And I was excited he's going to come up and we're going to put on
• 29:16
  SPEAKER_01: a pretty good Pretty good show,
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_01: and I think it'll be fun, but go on there and check it out.
• 29:22
  SPEAKER_01: The other thing I really want to touch on real quick, Reagan,
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_01: that I don't think helps Kotech,
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_01: and I don't know,
• 29:28
  SPEAKER_01: you mentioned it this morning,
• 29:29
  SPEAKER_01: and I just got done reading this story,
• 29:32
  SPEAKER_01: is housing agency director Andrea Bell, who works for the governor...
• 29:40
  SPEAKER_01: As the director of OHCS.
• 29:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, had to amend her paperwork,
• 29:45
  SPEAKER_01: which everybody who works for the state on a high level or you're elected,
• 29:51
  SPEAKER_01: you have to file ethics paperwork.
• 29:54
  SPEAKER_01: And she had to amend it to talk about her husband,
• 29:58
  SPEAKER_01: Josh Kreitz,
• 30:00
  SPEAKER_01: Because he works for the consulting firm that writes all of these contracts
• 30:08
  SPEAKER_01: with housing authorities to get all this free money from OHCS,
• 30:13
  SPEAKER_01: in which Director Bell is the director.
• 30:16
  SPEAKER_00: I would say, I want to clarify, not all.
• 30:19
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's likely that it's a lot of them.
• 30:22
  SPEAKER_01: There's two that got over tens of millions of dollars.
• 30:26
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 30:27
  SPEAKER_01: But...
• 30:28
  SPEAKER_01: The fact that, I mean, you're not disclosing that.
• 30:32
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's just like, oh, man.
• 30:34
  SPEAKER_01: And this OHCS lift money,
• 30:38
  SPEAKER_01: $3 billion or so that we've spent in there,
• 30:42
  SPEAKER_01: there's bad stuff happening in this world.
• 30:48
  SPEAKER_01: This bomb...
• 30:49
  SPEAKER_01: It's just another thing.
• 30:51
  SPEAKER_01: It's another black mark on her directors and her controls of her agencies.
• 30:59
  SPEAKER_01: If Tina wins again, I see a mass exodus and change happening across the spectrum in directors.
• 31:06
  SPEAKER_01: And this sort of stuff, I mean,
• 31:12
  SPEAKER_01: from the agency director of the What is it?
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_01: The childcare lady that had her husband and cousins
• 31:20
  SPEAKER_01: and shit running childcare facilities to this sort of stuff.
• 31:24
  SPEAKER_01: People, they're just tired of this stuff, man.
• 31:26
  SPEAKER_01: And this is not good.
• 31:28
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know where this blows to.
• 31:30
  SPEAKER_01: I'll be curious to see how big.
• 31:32
  SPEAKER_01: It's only got the ProPublica right now.
• 31:35
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, none of the bigger guys have written about it,
• 31:37
  SPEAKER_01: but I'm wondering how Willamette Week looks into this and where this could go.
• 31:40
  SPEAKER_01: But this story could get legs and it could be...
• 31:44
  SPEAKER_01: Part of an October surprise that might be her undoing.
• 31:48
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and the Oregonian republished ProPublica because they partnered with them on
• 31:53
  SPEAKER_00: the story or something like that.
• 31:54
  SPEAKER_00: I don't quite understand the relationship.
• 31:56
  SPEAKER_00: So it's going to hit Oregon media.
• 31:58
  SPEAKER_00: And I think if you're a director under Kotech,
• 32:01
  SPEAKER_00: you really don't want to be the person she blames for her loss.
• 32:05
  SPEAKER_00: If she loses and you really don't want to create headaches in the late stages of the campaign.
• 32:11
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know,
• 32:12
  SPEAKER_00: you also if you're if there's the potential for Drazen to be the governor,
• 32:15
  SPEAKER_00: you kind of don't want to target on your back either.
• 32:18
  SPEAKER_00: You'd like to, you know, get a chance to at least send out some resumes before you get fired.
• 32:22
  SPEAKER_00: And one of the underrated things that one party rule has done,
• 32:29
  SPEAKER_00: and we learned this in the Senate, Bryan,
• 32:31
  SPEAKER_00: is that Senate confirmation is essentially ceremonial,
• 32:35
  SPEAKER_01: that almost every director position can be
• 32:39
  SPEAKER_00: interim appointed by the governor
• 32:41
  SPEAKER_00: and have almost all the powers.
• 32:44
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think that maybe Democrats are thinking they're going to have checks
• 32:48
  SPEAKER_00: and balances on these agency directors.
• 32:51
  SPEAKER_00: And I think Drazen would be right to say,
• 32:54
  SPEAKER_00: actually,
• 32:54
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 32:54
  SPEAKER_00: it seems like you guys just appoint interims whenever you want and you sort
• 32:58
  SPEAKER_00: of send them to Senate whenever you feel like it.
• 33:00
  SPEAKER_00: And so if you want to confirm my nominees, great.
• 33:03
  SPEAKER_00: But if you're not going to, I'm just going to have four years of interim directors.
• 33:06
  SPEAKER_00: You have no ability to question or question.
• 33:10
  SPEAKER_00: Um, uh, put before for a vote.
• 33:12
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that that is, uh, what happens when you think you can just do whatever you want.
• 33:18
  SPEAKER_00: And, um, there should have been a respect of the legislative process that whole time.
• 33:23
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, but, uh, I'm sure they'll try to change the, uh, wording.
• 33:27
  SPEAKER_00: They'll probably ask the legislative council for brand new,
• 33:29
  SPEAKER_00: magically new legislative opinions,
• 33:32
  SPEAKER_00: but there's a lot of history now that Drazen and Can draw on to point at and say,
• 33:36
  SPEAKER_00: actually, this is standard procedure for the governor's office.
• 33:39
  SPEAKER_00: So the Senate can go can go fly a kite.
• 33:43
  SPEAKER_00: And so stuff like that,
• 33:44
  SPEAKER_00: that I think,
• 33:45
  SPEAKER_00: because we're a bit of one party state and they've played fast and loose with,
• 33:49
  SPEAKER_00: they're going to regret playing fast and loose with,
• 33:54
  SPEAKER_00: you know, the responsibilities of these branches that are supposed to be co-equal.
• 33:58
  SPEAKER_00: And there were some.
• 33:59
  SPEAKER_00: Who got shut down and I know Peter Courtney was one of them where his goal was
• 34:04
  SPEAKER_00: to make the legislature an actual co-equal branch with
• 34:08
  SPEAKER_00: the all-powerful Oregon governorship.
• 34:11
  SPEAKER_00: And he tried and not everybody wanted to do that
• 34:15
  SPEAKER_00: because they thought it was maybe unfair to their party and to their governor.
• 34:19
  SPEAKER_00: And so that can come back to haunt them.
• 34:22
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah, it sure can.
• 34:24
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, I forgot my last point.
• 34:27
  SPEAKER_00: I think there's a segment of voters that are having regrets.
• 34:31
  SPEAKER_00: They may have thought about voting for Drazen,
• 34:33
  SPEAKER_00: ultimately went home for Kotech in 2022,
• 34:35
  SPEAKER_00: and now they're actually looking at Drazen seriously again four years later
• 34:39
  SPEAKER_00: and agree.
• 34:41
  SPEAKER_00: And I think this could be, I mean, and I've made this assertion before that I totally believe.
• 34:46
  SPEAKER_00: That the Kitzhopper scandal is what caused a bunch of people to vote
• 34:51
  SPEAKER_00: for Dennis Richardson in 2016 because he said Kitzhopper was corrupt.
• 34:54
  SPEAKER_00: He said he was the wrong choice and that Richardson was the right one.
• 34:58
  SPEAKER_00: And a bunch of people, they didn't even know who Brad Evakian was.
• 35:00
  SPEAKER_00: They didn't care.
• 35:01
  SPEAKER_00: They were just like,
• 35:02
  SPEAKER_00: this guy was right and I screwed up and he deserves to be Secretary of State because
• 35:07
  SPEAKER_00: of it.
• 35:07
  SPEAKER_00: And I think if there's a bunch of people out there that have that kind of regret,
• 35:13
  SPEAKER_00: Drazen is going to be Ahead on election night and have a chance to actually win as
• 35:19
  SPEAKER_00: the late progressive ballot harvest comes in,
• 35:23
  SPEAKER_00: which will hopefully be significantly muted by all kinds of activity over the state
• 35:28
  SPEAKER_00: from various Republican, including GOTV Oregon.
• 35:33
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah, I hope so.
• 35:36
  SPEAKER_01: I hope that.
• 35:38
  SPEAKER_01: You're right, because the Evacian thing was real.
• 35:41
  SPEAKER_01: Like that was kind of a, it was like the undercurrent of that whole Dennis Richardson's race.
• 35:48
  SPEAKER_01: Like Dennis was competent.
• 35:51
  SPEAKER_01: You know, he was, he was great.
• 35:53
  SPEAKER_01: Like Dennis was great, but super conservative, mind you.
• 35:57
  SPEAKER_01: But there was this undercurrent that kind of everybody just didn't like Evacian.
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 36:03
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 36:03
  SPEAKER_01: so it does make you,
• 36:05
  SPEAKER_01: it does kind of definitely make you Wonder if there's a little bit of that happening
• 36:10
  SPEAKER_01: and because a lot of those middle of the road kind of Democrats and I've talked to
• 36:15
  SPEAKER_01: a lot of them like up in Portland and stuff like that and talk to friends that have
• 36:18
  SPEAKER_01: a lot of Portland there.
• 36:20
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of them are voting Drazen and they've made up their mind
• 36:23
  SPEAKER_01: and they're just like, we don't care.
• 36:24
  SPEAKER_01: Like something needs to change in Portland.
• 36:26
  SPEAKER_01: Like, you know,
• 36:28
  SPEAKER_01: this could be the year where she,
• 36:30
  SPEAKER_01: you know, we get over a hundred thousand votes in Multnomah County.
• 36:32
  SPEAKER_01: If that happens, then I, you know, she's got a shot, a real, real shot.
• 36:37
  SPEAKER_01: And In four years, four years is a long time, Reagan.
• 36:41
  SPEAKER_01: That's a
• 36:43
  SPEAKER_00: long time.
• 36:44
  SPEAKER_01: It is a long time.
• 36:45
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know what that does for everything else,
• 36:47
  SPEAKER_01: but at least for four years, you can say marked safe.
• 36:54
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 36:56
  SPEAKER_01: She could at least stop everything from getting worse.
• 37:00
  SPEAKER_00: So, yeah, there's a lot the governor can do.
• 37:03
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it's unlikely that Democrats have enough votes to override everything
• 37:08
  SPEAKER_00: that she's going to veto, which gives her a lot of leverage.
• 37:12
  SPEAKER_00: She also will get to have significant input on the budget.
• 37:18
  SPEAKER_00: Now it's on a shortened timeline for this first one,
• 37:20
  SPEAKER_00: obviously,
• 37:20
  SPEAKER_00: because she doesn't have long if she wins, but she'll have significant input.
• 37:26
  SPEAKER_00: She's got the line item veto too.
• 37:28
  SPEAKER_00: And man,
• 37:28
  SPEAKER_00: there's a lot of line items these guys are going to go looking at and go,
• 37:31
  SPEAKER_00: hmm, maybe I shouldn't.
• 37:33
  SPEAKER_00: Go all the way against Drazen so I can protect some of these line items.
• 37:39
  SPEAKER_00: I think one of the benefits,
• 37:41
  SPEAKER_00: she's not going to be afraid to veto and line item this stuff
• 37:45
  SPEAKER_00: if people aren't collaborative and working together.
• 37:48
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I hear you.
• 37:52
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 37:52
  SPEAKER_01: Well, that's it for today.
• 37:54
  SPEAKER_01: We were going to do the house races, Reagan, but we got too much stuff to do.
• 37:58
  SPEAKER_01: And we had to talk about the debate.
• 37:59
  SPEAKER_01: We had to talk about some of the polling.
• 38:01
  SPEAKER_01: So kudos to OPB and, you know, Horvig for doing some public polling.
• 38:06
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's great.
• 38:08
  SPEAKER_01: We need more of that out there.
• 38:09
  SPEAKER_01: There's more coming, hopefully.
• 38:12
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I hope so too.
• 38:13
  SPEAKER_01: And then we'll get into the house stuff.
• 38:15
  SPEAKER_01: We'll do that next week.
• 38:16
  SPEAKER_01: It might take us two episodes next week, depending on other things that may happen.
• 38:20
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm looking for an October surprise, Reagan.
• 38:23
  SPEAKER_01: I want a big one.
• 38:25
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 38:26
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_01: I'll talk to you.
• 38:29
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 38:29
  SPEAKER_00: Talk to you later.