Latest / Winning Cures Everything | College Football / Week 6 2026 College Football Picks for the 10 Best Games!

Transcript

Week 6 2026 College Football Picks for the 10 Best Games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Week six of college football is loaded, right? Georgia at Alabama,
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: two unbeatens, 5-0 against 5-0. The market has the tide
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: by a point and a half. Then we get the
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Red River shootout in Dallas. The total opened at 48
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: and a half. It's got beaten all the way down
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: to 39. Undefeated Nebraska hosting undefeated Indiana. Undefeated UCLA walking
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: into Eugene to face Oregon. USC 5-1. They're going to
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Happy Valley. They're playing a Penn State team that's lost
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: two straight. We got Ole Miss at Vandy, South Carolina, Florida,
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Iowa at Washington on a Friday night. Ten games. I
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: could build a whole Saturday around any one of them. Oh,
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: and let's add one more thing. Winning Cures Everything is
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: now presented by PrizePix. More on that in just a minute.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Welcome in. This is Winning Cures Everything. It's a college
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: football podcast now proudly presented by PrizePix. I'm your host,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Gary Seegers, at GaryWCE on all the socials. And, of course,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: to get things started off right, hit that subscribe button,
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: hit the like button, and, of course, jump in the
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: comments with your favorite picks for this week's card. There
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: are ten games that we're going over. The ten best
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: games of week six. Every game gets the same treatment.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: I give you what the market says, what the model says,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: what the stats say, when they don't agree with each other,
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: plus the trends, the injuries, the weather, everything else. And
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I'm going to give you a pick for every game, too.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: I'll give you a show pick. And then, of course,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: I'll show you what the model thinks. And we're going
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: to talk about underdogs as well. One housekeeping note, on
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: some of these, the books are a little bit apart.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: So when you hear a range, that's like from book
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: to book. I highly recommend that you shop. So, let's
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: get to work. Before we get rolling on these games,
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: let's go ahead and recap what we have done thus
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: far on the season. Last week, show went 14-10. The
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: model went 13-10. That's 13-10-1 or whatever. Went 8-6 on
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: the next 15. The 10 best went 6-4, so not
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: too shabby. The model, 13 there, 7-6, and one was
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: just a dead-on pick-em, or went flat. We'll say that. Dogs,
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: 4-2 and 2-1, so 6-3 overall last week. Overall on
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: the season, my picks... The ones that I have decided.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: 68 and 49 against the spread that's 58.1%. The model
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: is 70 and 46. That's 60.3%. Underdog picks on the
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: year 28 and 21 when I decide to side with
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: the dog. Now, let's roll. If you haven't already, make
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: sure that you subscribe over to WCE Picks. That is
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: the other channel where I'm posting the individual game segments,
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: individual game picks. I went ahead and did the weeknight
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: games over there. So if you're looking for a Tuesday, Wednesday,
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Thursday night game, it's already posted over there. So go
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: check it out. WCE Picks. There is a link in
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: the description for that. All right. Number one on the
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: 10 best this week. Georgia at Alabama. This one Saturday night, 6.30
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Central on ABC. Of course, Central Time, God's time zone.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Bryant-Denny Stadium, both teams are 5-0. The market has settled
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: on Alabama minus 1.5 at home. Georgia was the favorite
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: to start off, so the line has flipped. Total 55.5
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: right now. That's come down a little bit. DraftKings opened
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: in the preseason at 50.5. Then it got all the
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: way up to 56.5. It's come down to 55.5. We'll
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: talk about some of the weather and whatnot here in
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: a little bit. But as you can see, the model,
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: of course, power rating has Bama minus 7.5 up there
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: at the top. Right there. And the stats model, the
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: opponent-adjusted stats model, has Alabama minus 4.87. Projected total of 60.6
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: for the total. So the market and the model agree
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: on the side. Alabama at home. The model has the
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: tide by, you know, three to six points more than
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: the market does. And it likes the over by about five.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Kind of interesting. Now, that doesn't include weather. So it
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: is what it is. Last week, Georgia handled Vanderbilt 38-14.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: They did not cover that game. Bama went to Starkville.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: They won 56-23. Keelan Russell 16-22. 285 yards, three touchdowns.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Gunner Stockton threw for 295 and three against Vanderbilt last week.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: The last meeting between these two, the SEC Championship game
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: in Atlanta last December. Georgia whipped that tail, 28-7. Of course,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Alabama had, what, 10 starters that weren't able to go
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: in that game? So it is what it is. Back
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: in September of last year, Alabama won 24-21 in Athens,
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: scored all of their points in the first half. Pretty wild.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: So one apiece in 2025. Looking at what's next, I
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: don't think either one of these teams is going to
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: overlook anything, but Bama goes to Knoxville for the third
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: Saturday in October. Georgia gets Auburn at home. Nobody's looking
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: past this one. It's the biggest game either team is
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: going to play until December. At least that's what it
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: looks like. So here is where I think the game
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: gets decided. Georgia's run defense is number one in the country. 1.1
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: yards right there. Let's see, 1.91 yards per rush allowed, 22.5%
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: rushing success rate allowed. That is number one in the country.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: PPA per rush, they're number one in the country. Alabama
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: runs it for 4.85 yards a pop. That's number 47,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: but they are number 12 in PPA per rush. That's
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: predicted points added per rush. Bama is not going to
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: be able to line up and lean on Georgia. Like,
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Russell is going to have to win, not just with
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: his arm, but moving around in the pocket, they're going
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: to have to shift the lines a little bit, etc.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: At least that's what we think, right? And Russell certainly can.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: Alabama's third in the country, 10.6 yards per attempt throwing
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: the football. That's number three. QBR is number seven, passing
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: success rate number 28. And Georgia isn't great at it.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're really good, but... Because they're 5.7 at
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: the row, that's number nine. Like, they're good. They're good.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: They're number four in passing explosiveness allowed. That's the matchup
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: that I want to watch. Before I start talking about
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: the other side of the ball, if you're not already
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: a member, go and check out buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures. I
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: post all of these sheets for every FBS versus FBS game.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Down here at the bottom, I am now putting in
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: who they've actually played. And you can see Right here,
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: opponent PPA margin. Georgia, number 120. You can kind of
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: see it already. This is Sagarin's current strength of schedule. Georgia,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: number 86. Alabama has faced the number nine strength of
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: schedule thus far on the season. But if you look,
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: just looking at predicted points added, right? Alabama has faced
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: the number 48 toughest strength of schedule. Georgia, number 129.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: As far as offenses faced, Georgia dead last. They have
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: faced the easiest schedule in the country of opposing offenses.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Alabama has faced the number 25 toughest offenses in the country.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: As far as defense, neither team has really faced great defenses.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Bama number 99, Georgia number 94. Bama has played the
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: number 90 toughest passing defenses, number 72 toughest rushing defenses.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: And Georgia is the other way around. Georgia, number 55,
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: toughest passing defenses. Number 108, toughest rushing defenses. So Georgia
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: hasn't really played anything like Alabama. But Alabama, to be fair,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: has not really played anything like Georgia's defense. But now
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: we're going to talk about Georgia's offense, which we have
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: right here. Georgia's offense is putting up 51.4 points a game.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: That is number one in the country. Alabama's number two
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: at 49.6. But still, Bama, number 51 in points per
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: game allowed, 20.8. Georgia's defense, number 12 at 13.4 points
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: per game allowed. But still, back to Georgia's offense. 6.4.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: I had this note down somewhere. Hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm. 6.43
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: points per drive. That is number one. Number one in
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: the country. I mean, that's just, that's awesome. Right there.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Offensive points per drive. If you're just looking at points
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity, Georgia's number one. 5.74 points every time
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: they get a first down inside the opponent 40. Bama's
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: defense is number 106 there. Bama's offense, number two in
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity. Georgia's defense, number 33. So both
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: of these offenses know how to finish drives. Bama's defense
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: gives up explosive plays at an 11% clip. That's 80th
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: in the country. If Georgia gets behind you, it's going
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: to be a long night. I don't know. that they're
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: really that explosive or if they've just played blah teams, right?
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: The reason the model likes Alabama is who has Georgia played, right?
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Georgia's earned schedule number 86 per Sagarin. The offenses that
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: they faced, 129th in opponent PBA margin. Bama's schedule is 9th.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Georgia's numbers look great, but they've been playing a bunch
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: of teams that can't do much. I think that's easy
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: enough to say. Big thing to watch for here, both
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: of these teams are in the top six in offensive
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: red zone touchdown rate. Bama number six, Georgia number three.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: And the defenses are both outside of the top 108.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: Alabama number nine, or 109, in defensive red zone touchdown
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: rate allowed. Georgia number 114 in defensive red zone touchdown
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: rate allowed. So both of these teams are going to
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: be able to finish on these other defenses. We'll just
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: say that. Special teams, something to pay attention to. Georgia
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: is number three. Alabama is number 70. In a coin
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: flip game, that can cost you a field goal. There's
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: hidden yardage there as well. There's no telling. There's no telling.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Bama is forcing 2.6 takeaways a game. That is number
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: three in the country. They are number nine in takeaways
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: per game. Something to pay attention to with this is
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: the fact that Bama is number 66 in giveaways per game.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: But they do a good enough job of taking it
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: away from the other team that they're actually number 7
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: in turnover margin. Georgia is number 13. We'll see. As
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: far as trends go, Georgia 11-18 against the spread as
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: a favorite since 2024. They are 9-16 against the spread
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: off a straight-up win, which they are this week. So
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Georgia is not favored. So we don't have to worry
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: about that first trend there. Bama, 12-4 against the number
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: at home. Head-to-head since 2016. Alabama, 7-2 straight up against Georgia,
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: but small sample size, etc. Georgia wide receiver, Canyon, questionable
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: with the leg. The running back, Dowdle, is out. Alabama
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: wide receiver, Walker, questionable. Other than that, looks like everybody's
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: going to be all right, which I'm good with. Now,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: I brought up weather. You've got to keep an eye
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: on this one. Forecast right now says 74 degrees. East
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: wind at 20 mile an hour. Gust up to 29.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: 56% chance of rain. If that holds, this passing game
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: that we just talked about, it's going to get a
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: lot harder. That 60 point model total, it's going to
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: be a lot tougher to hit. I think it's going
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: to rain. I think it's going to affect the passing
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: game for Alabama. Again, power rating has Bama by over
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: a touchdown. Minus 7.5. The stats model has Bama minus 4.87.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Both of those will cover Alabama minus 1.5. I think
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: Georgia exercised some demons last year in that championship game.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: I think Georgia gets it done in Bryant-Denny. I've picked
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: against Alabama all year. I'm not just going to flip
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: immediately once we get to a really good football team.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: I think Georgia finds a way to get this one done.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: I will go with the Dogs. I know they haven't
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: played the tougher schedule. I know the model doesn't like
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: it here. I'm going to go against the model. Give
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: me Georgia. Plus one and a half. I think they
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: win outright in Tuscaloosa. Game number two, we've got the
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: Red River Shootout. Texas and Oklahoma. This one in the
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Cotton Bowl. It's the Texas State Fair. It's 2.30 p.m.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Central Time on ABC. Half the stadium's in burnt orange.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Half of them's in crimson. Everybody's had a A corn
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: dog by kickoff. Everybody's feeling good. You got some deep
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: fried Oreos going on. I understand. I'm excited about it.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: I'm excited about it. Texas minus 8.5 is what we're
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: looking at here. That opened at 6, so it's a 2.5
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: point swing towards Texas. The total is the story here.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: It opened at 48.5 in the preseason. It was 41.5
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: on Sunday morning. It is now 39 to 39.5, depending
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: on the book. That is nine points down. Now, the
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: model power rating has Texas minus 14.2. Oklahoma has not
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: been good this year. Like, the offense has not been
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: good this year. Now, Texas' offense hasn't been great either,
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: but even still, even still, the stats model has Texas
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: minus 9.69. The projected total that I've got is around 47, 46.96.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: The model likes Texas by a point to five and
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: a half more than the market, and it thinks the
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: total got pushed way too low, roughly about eight points
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: too low. Both teams are coming off a bye. Texas
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: last played at Tennessee, got that win 20-17. Colin Simmons
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: had five and a half sacks in that game. Oklahoma
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: also last played. That same weekend, between the hedges, they
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: lost to Georgia and just got annihilated. They were down
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: 28-0 at the half. 41-13 was the final. It was
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: just a beating. The last meeting between these two was
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: last October. Texas won that one 23-6 over Oklahoma. The
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: year before that, 34-3. Texas has held Oklahoma to nine
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: points total over the last two seasons. On the schedule, again,
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: this is another one that I don't think anybody's going
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: to be overlooking. But Texas gets Florida next, and then
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: they get Ole Miss. It's a pretty nasty stretch. Oklahoma
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: gets Kentucky at home. The problem for Oklahoma is obviously
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: the offense. Number 131 in PPA per drive here. Success
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: rate is 37.5%. That's 124th in the country, and running
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: the ball is atrocious. Number 129 in rushing success rate.
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: 32 points a game. Sorry, 32. Where is it? 22
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: points a game. That's number 109 in the country. That
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: is atrocious. Like, in the red zone, 44% touchdowns. That
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: is number 128. They can't finish drives. If you look
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: at their offense, points per scoring opportunity, they're number 99.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: But the scoring opportunities per game, that's how many drives
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: do you get a first down inside the opponent's 40-yard line.
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: They're number 132. Only four and a half drives per
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: game do they get a first down inside the opponent 40.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: On top of that, they turn the ball over. Like,
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: you look at turnover margin, they are number 136. I mean,
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: that's crazy. Number 137 in giveaways per game. They turn
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: it over two and a half times a game. That's crazy. Texas, like,
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: they're number 66 in takeaways per game. Their defense has
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: a 20.6 havoc rate. That is 16th in the country
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: against an Oklahoma line that ranks 94th at preventing it.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: It looks like a complete and total mismatch. Now, to
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: be fair to the Sooners, the defense is real, right? 30.7%
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: success rate allowed, 4th in the country. They're good. Red
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: zone touchdown defense rate allowed 30%. That's 2nd in the country.
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: And Texas can't run it either. At 3.64 a carry, 121st,
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: that's nuts. Number 108 in PPA per rush. They are
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: number 83 in rushing explosiveness, number 113 in offensive line yards,
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: number 101 in stuff rate. It's two great defenses and
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: two offenses that can't run the ball. I guess that's
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: why the total keeps falling. As far as trends, Oklahoma
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: overs 9-20 since 2024. Texas is 12-19-1 to the over
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: and 5-11-1 in conference. So I understand the unders. I
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: understand why people are doing this. Texas also 6-11 against
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: the spread in conference. Head-to-head between these two since 2016.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: Texas is 7-4 against the spread in this game. Oklahoma
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: is 7-4 straight up. Now on the season, both of
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: these teams are 1-3 against the spread thus far. But
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: there's a whole world of difference between 4-0 and ranked
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: number one in the country and 2-2 and just getting annihilated, right?
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: So the trends say under. My model says over. Obviously,
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: somebody's going to be wrong here. As far as injuries go, Texas,
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: a bunch of questionables, right? The running back smothers. He's
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: got an ankle. The guard, Goosby, he's got a knee.
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: Tight end, Townsend, a knee. Wide receiver, McCutcheon, he's got
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: an illness, so he's out. The wide receiver, Harris, is
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: out with a back injury for Oklahoma. The weather, 83-inch sunny.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: It should be fine. It should be great. We'll see.
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know. This thing went down to Texas minus 7.5
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: or minus 8.5. It got down to 7.5. It came
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: back up to 8.5. I can't see. Oklahoma is number 22.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: Not number 22, number 109. They're averaging 22 points a game.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: I don't... Both of these teams have faced really good defenses. Texas,
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: number 20 in defensive PPA faced. Oklahoma, 10. But it's
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: not going to get easier here. And Oklahoma has shown
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: no ability to score at all. Texas at least has
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: some star power. They can make some explosives happen. They're
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: not great at it. Number 105 in offensive explosiveness here.
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: And if you look at Texas' offense, number 83 in
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: rushing explosiveness, number 117 in passing, but they do have
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: the capability. They do have... They can do it. How's that?
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: And they're better at finishing drives, if we're completely honest.
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: How this thing doesn't end up double digits like the
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: last two, I don't know. This thing is 8.5. I
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: don't think that Oklahoma could have fixed anything in the
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: bye week. For Red River, give me Texas, minus 8.5.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, that thing is, if it comes back down again, unless, like,
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: unless somebody major is out for Texas, and I mean,
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: we'd really have to define major, I'm going Texas. Give
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: me Texas, minus 8.5. Again, the power rating is Texas
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: minus 14.2. The stats model, Texas minus 9.69. I will
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: take Texas minus eight and a half. Game three, we
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: got USC at Penn State. We got a Big Ten
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: matchup here, 6.30 p.m. Central Time, God's time zone on
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: NBC and Peacock. Of course, this one at Beaver Stadium.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: It's supposed to be the whiteout game. I think we're
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: all excited about this, or at least we were until
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: Penn State started playing football. But it is what it is.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: The books disagree on the favorite. Again, I have seen
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: a USC minus one. Penn State minus 1.5 to minus 2.5,
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: depending on the book. The line was created at USC
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: minus 1.5. It's flipped to the home team. The total
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: is anywhere from 54 to 55.5, depending on the book.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: Do your shopping, etc. Go ahead and tell you my model.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: Power rating has Penn State minus 2.7. My stat spread
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: has Penn State minus 1.91. My total here is 53.67.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: So the model has a slight lean to the home
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: team and a small under lean, like one or two
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: points below the market. Last week was rough for Penn State, right?
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: They went to Northwestern on Friday night. They lost 34-13.
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: They got, and it was worse than that, really. It
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: was 34-7. Rocco Beck threw two picks. But it wasn't that.
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: They got outrushed in that game like 400-something yards to 40-something.
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, just a disaster. And the week before, when
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: they lost at home to Wisconsin, 24-20, they were up
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: by 17 in that game and lost. Year one under
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: Matt Campbell, they're 3-2, two straight losses. The fan base
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: is getting a little bit antsy. They are already out
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: of the playoff picture. and we're not even close to
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: Halloween at this point. USC, on the other hand, 5-1.
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: They lost to Oregon, then they came back and beat
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: Washington last week, 25-21. They did not cover that game.
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: They were down 21-10, and they could have really just
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: rode off the season at that point, and Lincoln Riley
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: would be looking for a new job, and it would
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: be a whole thing, but they came back and looked
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: pretty good defensively. Still not great, but they got a
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: stop at the very end when they absolutely needed it,
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: so that was nice for them. But the numbers still
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: show they can't stop the pass, and that's about all
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: that Penn State can do because Penn State, number 115
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: in rushing success rate. But we'll talk more stats here
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: in just a minute. The last meeting between these two
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: was October 2024 at the Coliseum. Penn State, James Franklin
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: and company, 33, USC 30 in overtime. Schedule check. Penn
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: State goes to Michigan next week. USC has a bye.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: So the Trojans can just empty the tank here. They
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: have needed a bye week for a little while. They've
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: already played six games. Remember, they played week zero. So
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: they are looking forward to the bye week. USC's offense
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: against Penn State's pass defense, I think, decides this one.
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: And we'll scoot on down to that because Penn State's
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: pass defense is pretty good. USC's passing offense is... where
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: they are really good. USC success rate, 52% number eight
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: in the country. The passing success is 45%, which is
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: fourth in the country. Penn state allows only 4.7 yards
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: per attempt. That is number one. And it ranks third
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: in PPA allowed per pass. That's pretty good. But again,
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: when the other team can run it on you, they
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: don't have to worry about it. Teams are only throwing
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: on Penn state 45% of the time. Uh, They're going
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: with the more successful option. More successful. If you look
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: up here, Penn State's offense cannot run the football. Rushing success, 38%.
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: That's 115th. Offensive line yards, 118th. Explosive runs, 122nd. They're
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: facing a USC run defense that's only number 67 in
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: rushing success allowed. So Campbell, if he can't get the
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: run game going this week, I don't know that he's
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: going to be able to. Right? Offensive line yards here,
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: number 118. When's the last time you saw a Penn
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: State team look like this? I mean, it's just ridiculous.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: USC's defense, they give up 25.5 points a game. That's
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: number 89 in the country. Penn State's red zone defense,
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: they let teams score 92% of the time. That's 114.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: And Penn State's kicker, Rosa, is out. That could absolutely
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: matter late in a game like this where, I mean,
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: the spread is less than three points. It's kind of
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: a huge thing. USC, 2-9 against the spread on the
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: road since 2024, 6-12 against the spread off a straight-up win,
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: and they're 7-13 against Big Ten teams. Campbell's career against
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: the spread at home is 10-5. So, trend certainly favors
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: Campbell there. Penn State's conference over is 13-7, but Campbell
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: teams off of an over are 3-8 to the over.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: I think last week went over, didn't it? I don't remember.
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: Either way. Either way. Injuries to look out for. USC,
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: the wide receiver Sims is out. The wide receiver Mosley
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: is doubtful. Plus, you got a long questionable list including
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: the backup quarterback Huard. Penn State, their kicker Rosa is out.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: The wide receiver Howard is out. Their defensive lineman Granville
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: is out for this one. The weather, 57 degrees. Calm, dry,
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: good October Big Ten football weather. It's not going to
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: be cloudy or whatever. It's just Kind of cold. A
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: little bit of a nip in the air, if you would.
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: I think Penn State needs this one. And USC plays
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: awful when they go east. Awful. There's a reason this
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: thing flipped. And I know Penn State has looked bad,
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: but this is the whiteout. It's USC-Penn State. I think
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: this game is going to tell us a ton about
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: Matt Campbell and what to expect out of the rest
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: of their first year there. I'm going to go Penn State,
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: as bad as they looked last week. This is going
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: to sound crazy. Lincoln Riley ain't Chip Kelly. That's so nuts.
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: That is so nuts. The two teams, by the way,
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: USC has faced the tougher schedule. But I'm going to
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: roll with it. Because I can't trust USC in the
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: Eastern time zone. Can't do it. Give me Penn State minus,
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: what's the best number that I've got here? Minus one
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: and a half, I believe. Where is it? There we go.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: Penn State minus one and a half. That's what we're
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: going to roll with. So, Again, for record purposes, stat spread,
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: stats model has Penn State minus 1.91, power rating Penn
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: State minus 2.7. Yeah, I'll roll with Penn State, minus 1.5. Now,
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: if your Saturday homework involves offensive lines and third down defense,
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: you're my kind of person. And PrizePix gives you another
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: way to enjoy that research. You can build player picks
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: lineups with more or less on player stat projections or
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: check out college football spreads and totals through team picks.
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: That's right, they've got those too. Player picks, it's been
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: trusted by more than 20 million fans to turn sports
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: knowledge into cash. Almost all of the U.S. population can
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: currently make sports and culture picks to earn real money
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: on prize picks. Go ahead and check their Where Can
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: I Play page for your state's options and age requirements.
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: And here's the new customer offer when you use the
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: promo code WCE. You play $ 5 and you get $ 150
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: in bonus lineups if you win your first qualifying lineup.
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: Just visit prizepicks.com, download the app, and remember to use
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: promo code WCE when signing up. Offer terms apply, keep
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: it fun, and play responsibly. Alright, back to it. Want
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: extra winning Cures Everything content and a way to support
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: the show directly? Head over to buymeacoffee.com. slash winningcures and
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: become part of the community today. Game number four, Texas
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: A & M at Missouri. We stay in the SEC,
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: or I guess we move back to the SEC. 11 a.m.
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: Central Time on ABC. Farrowfield, Missouri minus 3.5. Total 48.5
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: to 49.5 on this. Spread was minus 4.5 in favor
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: of Missouri when I created it on Sunday, and it
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: has gone down to 3.5. The model right now, power
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: rating has Missouri minus 3.7. Stats model has Mizzou minus 7.78
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: on this. Projected total 52.83. The power rating is right
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: on the market. The stats spread has Mizzou by more
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: The model likes the over by about three to four
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: points is pretty close. Pretty close. Last week, Missouri beat
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: Florida 45 to 17. And it was worse than that.
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: Jamal Roberts ran for two 11 and three scores. Austin
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: Simmons threw for three 40. A & M maybe got
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: the groove back a little bit, a little bit. They
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: beat Arkansas 34 to seven, but it was Arkansas. But
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: this is also a team that lost at home to Kentucky.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: They got beat 35 to six at LSU before that. Uh,
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: We'll talk about Marcel Reed here in a minute. The
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: last meeting between these two was last November. A &
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: M 38, Mizzou 17, that was in Columbia. The year
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: before that, 41-10, A & M has won the last
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: three by an average of 24 points. So you know
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: Missouri wants this one. At least I would think they would.
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: Schedule check on this. Mizzou goes to Oxford next to
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: play a top 10 Ole Miss team. A & M
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: gets the Citadel, an FCS team, so The Aggies really
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: have nothing to look ahead to. Looking at these offenses,
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: we'll start with Missouri. Missouri throws for 9.1 yards per attempt.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: That's number 19 with zero interceptions on the year, which
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: is kind of mind-blowing at this point of the season,
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: but especially considering that Austin Simmons has put it in
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: harm's way multiple times. You saw just three different throws
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter against Mississippi State, where it probably
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: should have been picked. But either way, no interceptions does
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: not mean no turnover-worthy plays. We'll say that. But right now,
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: the number looks good. A & M' s pass defense allows
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: a 44% success rate. That's 103rd. And they rank 135th
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: in explosive passes allowed. That's an edge that Simmons ought
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: to be able to use, right? Because he was dealing
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: against Florida. Absolutely dealing. On the other side, A & M,
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: No big plays. I mean, look at this explosiveness. Number
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: 121 in offensive explosiveness for A & M. Explosive pass
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: rate is number 137. That is dead last. That number
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: is so crazy to me. Net explosiveness, they're number 128.
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: They're going up against a Missouri run defense that allows 2.6
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: a carry. That's 12th in the country. And I don't
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: have that pulled down far enough. There we go. So
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: right there, yards per rush. 2.61 yards per carry. 37.5%
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: stuff rate. That's 10th. If A & M can't hit
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: a big play, they've got to put together 12 play
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: drives all day. That's going to be really tough to
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: do on the road here. Looking at the schedule, this
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: is something to pay attention to, which is... I mean,
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: this just kind of blows my mind. A & M' s
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: opponents rank 98th in PPA margin. They have looked... not
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: great against not great teams. Mizzou, their opponents rank 20th.
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: It's just nuts to me. Missouri is a pretty good
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: football team, considering who they've played already. Just saying. Looking
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: at penalty yards per game, Missouri's 68 penalty yards a game.
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: That's 111th. Something to pay attention to. A & M,
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: pretty disciplined. Number 16 in penalty yards per game. So
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: that's something to look at. As far as trends go,
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: Missouri is 14-7 against the spread as a favorite since 2024.
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: They are 11-7 to the over at home. A & M,
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: 11-19 against the spread overall. 3-7 against the spread off
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: of a cover, which they are. They're coming off of that.
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: A & M overs with a total between 45 and 49.
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: They are 8-2. Kind of looking at it over here.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: Just saying, head-to-head, A & M 3-0 straight up in
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: against the spread against Missouri in the last three, but
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: small sample size, small sample size. Injuries, this one kind
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: of matters for Missouri. Two defensive linemen out, Kitchen and Smith,
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: plus the tight end Hoffman, wide receiver Brady, the guard Green, and,
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: of course, the running back Hardy still out there. A
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: & M' s running back Morrow was limited last week and
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: is questionable, so... There's a lot to keep up with
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: as far as injuries go on the Missouri side. As
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: far as weather goes, light wind, dry, 73 degrees, should
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: be perfect weather for this one. Absolutely perfect weather. The
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: injuries bother me. 11 a.m. kick in Columbia. I still
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: think Missouri is just light. That sounds crazy. I was
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: going to say light year is better than A & M.
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: This thing is down to 3.5 now. Both my power
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: rating and my stats model like it. Even having the
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: defensive linemen out, I still don't trust A & M' s offense.
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: They're number 85 in PPA per drive, number 76 in
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: offensive success rate. They're not explosive at all. And I
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: think this Missouri offense is going to be able to
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: do stuff against that defense. Like, A & M' s pass
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: defense is not good. Just not good. One thing where
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: they might be able to do it, like, A &
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: M is number 32 in havoc rate. Missouri's offense is
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: number 107 in havoc allowed. Maybe you can get after
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: Austin Simmons. I ain't counting on it. I think this
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: is a massive, massive game for Eli Drinkwitz. I think
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: he and that staff and those players know it. Give
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: me Missouri. At home, minus 3.5. Boy, that's going to
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: be something. That's going to be something. Missouri minus 3.5
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: is the play here. Game number five, we got big
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: noon on Fox and the defending national champions, Indiana, going
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: to undefeated Nebraska. 11 a.m. Central Time, God's time zone
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: in Lincoln. Both teams 5-0. Don't think we saw that
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: one coming back in August, although this Nebraska schedule hasn't
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: exactly been a murderer's row. It's still better than what
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: Indiana's faced, at least per Sagarin, which is kind of crazy.
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: Sagarin's numbers have been weird all year. They've got 52
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: for Nebraska, but when you... I did my own. I'm
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: looking at PPA margin. I'm looking at the offenses faced,
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: the defenses faced, etc. Just saying that Indiana has faced
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: some pretty good offenses, and they were able to shut
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: them down. The defenses that they faced, though... I mean,
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: we're talking rough here. But Indiana, number 106, an opponent
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: PPA margin faced. Nebraska dead last. Easiest schedule when it
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: comes to predicted points added margin. Some rough stuff. That's
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: some rough stuff. All right. Indiana, minus 7.5 is the
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: number that we're looking at right now. Total of 51.5,
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: and it's pretty much consensus across the board. This thing
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: opened at 9.5. It has come down a couple of points.
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: Makes sense. So, Two points of money have come in
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: on Nebraska. The model here, Indiana minus 4.5 for the
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: power rating, and my stats model has Indiana minus 3.93.
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: Projected total here, 53.92, so that is over about three points, well,
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: two points over 51.5, which is still just sitting there,
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: still just sitting there. The model is about three points
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: closer to Nebraska than the market is, And it's got
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: the total 2.5 points higher. Last week, Indiana went to Rutgers.
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: They won 45-15. Josh Hoover threw four touchdowns. Turbo Richard
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: ran for 204. It was nice to see him back
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: out there, considering how he looked against Northwestern the week before,
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: heading off to the locker room and whatnot. Nebraska beat
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: Maryland 48-23. Anthony Calandria threw for 238 yards, ran for 108,
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: and Gilmer caught 11 touchdowns. Passes for 147 yards and
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: two scores. The last meeting between these two, October of 2024,
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: Indiana 56, Nebraska 7. I don't think that Nebraska has
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: forgotten about that one. I don't think. Here's a bit
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: of a look-ahead spot to pay attention to. Indiana's next
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: game is Ohio State in Bloomington. They're laying 7.5 on
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: the road. The week before that game. Like this is
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: a classic spot for a flat first half. Nebraska goes
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: to Oregon next. So for the Huskers, this is like
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: the biggest home game of the year. Both of them
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: have big games next week. But Indiana getting the game
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: at home. like Nebraska is at home, Indiana goes home
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: to play Ohio State next week, like that's a whole thing.
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: Just something to pay attention to with this. Indiana's passing
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: game is number one in PPA per pass. They have
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: not thrown a pick. Again, at this point in the season,
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: that's kind of wild. Nebraska's pass defense, second in PPA allowed.
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: Scroll down here. The pass defense is pretty good for Nebraska.
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: That is the best on best matchup of the day.
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: Nebraska runs it for 5.8 a carry. That is 15th
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: in the country, so the run offense is pretty good there.
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: It helps when your quarterback can scramble, right? But they're
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: going into an Indiana run defense that allows 2.06. That
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: is 6th in the country. and yards allowed per rush.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: Something's got to give there. I'm curious about it. The
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: stat that I can't give past is penalties. Nebraska, they're
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: committing 8.6 penalties a game. That's 123rd. And they're 119
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: in penalty yards, over 73 yards per game. Indiana commits 3.4
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: for 27 yards. So both of those are top three
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: in the country. Nebraska is giving away 45 yards a
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: game more than Indiana. And I don't think you're going
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: to beat Indiana doing that. Both schedules have been pretty easy.
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: Nebraska's opponents, again, 138th in PPA margin. That's dead last. Indiana, 106th.
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: Nebraska's second half margin, plus 16. That is third in
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: the country. But it's not like Indiana is awful. They're
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: plus 11.3. They're number nine in the country. So both
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: of these teams are just destroying bad teams. The five
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: factors rank is interesting. Because when you look at five
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: factors plus strength of schedule plus talent rank, which talent
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: rank here, Nebraska number 25 in overall team talent, Indiana
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: still number 47. It's very interesting. Very interesting to me
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: how Indiana's talent gets ranked. But either way, looking at trends,
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: Indiana 15-6 against the spread in conference, 19-10 as a favorite.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: They are 14-6 off of an ATS cover. They're 20-9
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: to the over as a favorite. Those are all pretty
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: big sample sizes. Nebraska, 11-6-1 against the spread at home,
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: 12-6 to the over at home. Head-to-head, Indiana 3-1 ATS
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: in the last four against Nebraska. Looking at injuries, Jamal
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: Rule questionable. Still working back from a lower body injury.
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: The tight end, Nelson, is questionable. Wide receiver, Miles, is
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: out in this one. Indiana, BB Jr. is questionable. Turbo
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: Richard is probable with an ankle, but obviously he went
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: last week. And the wide receiver, Bond, is out for Indiana.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: Weather on this, 70 degrees. South wind. This is going
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: to be interesting. South wind is 16 miles an hour,
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: gusts up to 30. Real wind for both of these
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: passing attacks. I.
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: I think Nebraska can hang here. I feel like more
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: people are going to be on this Indiana side as
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: the week goes along. One of these teams is not
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: going to be unbeaten Saturday night. I'm not saying Indiana loses.
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: I just think that with Ohio State coming up next week,
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: this will be interesting. So I know the numbers already
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: come down a couple of points. It's still over a touchdown. Again,
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: power rating has Indiana minus four and a half. The
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: stats model has Indiana minus 3.93. I will take Nebraska
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: plus 7.5 to keep this thing close. And maybe, can
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: you imagine what that place would be like if they
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: get that win? It's not like Indiana has proven anything
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: to me. I'm just saying. I'm just saying. I think
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: this is coming down to the wire. Give me Nebraska
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: plus 7.5. Game number six, South Carolina heads down to
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: Gainesville to take on the Florida Gators who are reeling
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: after that loss last week to Missouri. South Carolina may
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: be in worse shape. Three straight losses here. 11.45 a.m.
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: Central Time, God's time zone on the SEC Network. This
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: one's in the swamp. Florida minus 12.5 to 13.5, depending
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: on the book. Total 61.5 to 62.5. So you'll need
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: to shop around on this one. This is the biggest
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: model gap on the board. The power rating has Florida
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: minus 3.4. The stat spread has Florida minus 8.27. And
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: yet the market is around 13. It opened at 14.5.
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's like 5 to 10 points of difference.
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: The model is screaming South Carolina on this. Both of
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: these teams lost last week. Florida went to Columbia and well, Columbia, Missouri,
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: and they got beat 45-17. South Carolina lost at home
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: to Kentucky 35-34 in overtime. Three straight losses for Shane
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: Beamer's team by 7, by 31, and by 1. Right,
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: Lenora Sellers ran for 147 against Kentucky. That's something that
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: Florida is going to have to look out for here.
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: The last meeting between these two, October 2023, Florida won
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: that one 41-39. Tight ballgame. This is year one for
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: John Summerall, 4-1 with Aaron Filo at quarterback. Interesting spot
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: here for them. You've got to check the schedule. Florida's
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: next two games at number one Texas and then Georgia
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: in Jacksonville. Laying 13 right before that stretch, this is
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: an absolute look-ahead spot. South Carolina's got to buy next week.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: I think they're everything they've got at this one, and
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: they are in desperation mode in the worst way right now.
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: Florida's offense, very good. Very, very good. 46 points a game.
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: That's fifth in the country. Five and a quarter points
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: per drive. That is fourth in the country. Right there.
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: Points per drive. Fourth in the country. South Carolina's defense
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: is bad. Like 104 in per drive defense. PPA per
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: drive defense. They give up a touchdown on 77% of
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: red zone trips. That's 125th. Florida's defense isn't exactly a
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: whole lot better if you scroll down here and take
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: a look. First off, defensive success rate, number 106. But
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: you just go down and start looking at, well, here
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: we go. Defensive PPA allowed per drive is number 78.
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: That's not as bad as South Carolina, but it's still
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: not great. 44.5% success rate allowed. That's 106. 37 points
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: a game. Or, sorry, 27 points a game. That's number 104.
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: 37 would be outrageous. South Carolina runs for 6.5 a carry.
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: That is second in the country, so they can run
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: the ball. Florida's not great against that. Number 72 in
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: yards allowed per rush. Number 90 in rushing success rate allowed.
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: Number 101 in offensive line yards allowed. 125th in stuff rate.
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: So South Carolina can take advantage of this on the
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: road by running the football. The reasons that the line
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: is at 13. Florida's strength of schedule is 148th based
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: on Sagarin. Again, just weird. But when you come down
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: here and actually look at it, South Carolina has faced
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: a significantly tougher schedule. When you start looking at PPA
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: and whatnot, there's a pretty big difference. Florida has faced
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: some good offenses. The defenses that Florida has faced is
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: not great. And South Carolina's problem is not really their
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: running defense anyway. I'm curious what they're going to look
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: like going up against Jaden Baugh. But boy, the passing
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: defense ain't worth nothing. South Carolina minus 1.2 in turnover margin.
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: That's 130th. You're not going to be able to spot
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: Florida extra possessions and cover 13. Florida's got their own problems, right?
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: 87 penalty yards a game, that's 135th. Sometimes I like
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: to call that aggressiveness. In this situation, it It might
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: not be that. Although they are number 27 in takeaways
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: per game, the turnover thing is just outrageous. Just, that's
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: a lot. Looking at trends on this game, South Carolina
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: 8-2 against the spread with a straight-up loss. Or sorry,
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: 8-2 against the spread off of a straight-up loss, which
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: they are. And they're 8-4 as a dog. Summerall is
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: 8-3 against the spread off of an ATS loss. Summer Hall, though,
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: just 3-6 and 1 as a 7-plus point home favorite.
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: And then they're 5-10 to the over at home. Head-to-head overs, 6-1.
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: It's pretty small. Florida's wide receiver, Vernell Brown III, doubtful
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: with a knee. South Carolina's backup quarterback is questionable. The
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: defensive lineman, Stewart, from what I understand, is still out.
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: They've had two receivers out since August. Nothing too crazy.
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: By the way, both of these teams, top six in
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: the country in special teams efficiency. Both top 25 in
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: talent rank as well. Weather, going to be interesting. You know,
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: we got that disturbance going on in the Gulf. We're
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: looking at a 77. chance of rain. Wind gusts up
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: to 20 miles an hour. 81 degrees, so it's going
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: to be warm. Wet ball, slick field. I mean, do
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: you want to lay 14 in the rain? There's a 13.5
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: out here. There's no more 14s. The power rating and
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: the model, the stats model, both well under this double-digit number.
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: And then Florida's got Texas and Georgia coming up next.
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: South Carolina's going into a bye. Give me South Carolina. Like,
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: I don't feel great about it. This team has really
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: done nothing to make me believe that they should be
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: an underdog pick. But Florida got their bell rung last week.
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: Curious how they respond when they get back home. That's
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: what I'm curious about. So give me South Carolina. Best
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: number I can get right now, 13.5. I will take
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: the Gamecocks plus the points in this one.
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: Hi, this is TJ Reeves of Three Dog Thursday, the
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: only digital show devoted exclusively to college football underdogs. And
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: the only place to see it is right here on
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: the Winning Cures Everything platform. We love talking the pooches.
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: And last week, my co-host Jason Powers and I, six
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: for six with the underdogs. Thank you to Northwestern and
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: Missouri outright for me. Jason says thank you to Pitt
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: and also to Kentucky with that two-point play outright for him.
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: We also got UCF and Vanderbilt with the hook at Georgia.
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: What will the underdogs be this week? Find out with us.
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: Thursday mornings, it's Three Dog Thursday, right here on the
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: Winning Cures Everything platform.
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: Are you tired of sore knees or joints slowing you down?
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: GoSleeves uses built-in kinesiology tape technology to give you support,
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: reduce pain, and help you recover faster. Use code WCE
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: for 15% off over at GoSleeves.com. Game number seven takes
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: us to Friday night. This one, of course, a Fox game,
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: Big Ten game, Iowa at Washington. This one, 8 p.m.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: Central time, Friday night on Fox. It's in Husky Stadium, Washington.
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: Minus three to minus three and a half here. Total
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: is 41 and a half to 42, depending on the book.
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: The line has moved towards Washington since my first look
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: at this game. Kind of surprising a little bit, but
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: Maybe not so much. Iowa has played Michigan and Ohio
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: State back-to-back. Now they've got to travel all the way
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: out west on a short week. I mean, not great.
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: The model right now, power rating has Iowa minus. 6.
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: The stats model has Iowa minus. 04, so it's almost
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: dead even on this. The projected total, I've got 47.13,
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: so the model likes Iowa getting points, and it likes
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: the over, which you're don't hear very often about an
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: Iowa game. Right? Both teams lost last week. Both are
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: on a short week. Iowa lost to Ohio State 31-14.
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: Hank Brown went 12-27 for 132 in that game. Washington
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: lost at USC 25-21, but they covered. Washington's two losses
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: to Minnesota and USC add up to seven total points. Now,
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: the Minnesota game wasn't exactly... close, but they got it
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: back to within three by the end. The loss to USC,
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, they were up 21-10. Couldn't get it done.
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: Couldn't get it done. The last meeting between these two,
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: October 2024 at Kinnick, Iowa 40, Washington 16. So maybe
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: a little bit of revenge for this Washington team, although
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: I doubt there's really anybody left on the schedule from 2020,
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: or on the roster from 2024. It's the way college
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: football works now. Right. Schedule check. Iowa has a bye
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: after this one. Washington goes to Purdue. No look ahead
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: either way. Iowa's defense is very Iowa. Right. 12.6 points
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: a game. That's eight. Red zone touchdown rate is 38%.
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: Down here, 38.46%. That is number eight in the country.
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: Explosives allowed, number seven. They don't allow teams to get
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: by them. Neither offense can throw. Washington's pass success, 26.5%.
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: Right there. Number 105. Iowa's is 26%. They're number 108.
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: There it is right there. Iowa's passing explosiveness, 135. I mean,
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: you know what this looks like? A punting contest. Right?
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: And in a punting contest, special teams really matter. Iowa
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: is number seven in special teams efficiency, even though this
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: is what's crazy to me. I expected Iowa to drop
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: off a little bit special teams-wise because they lost their
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: longtime special teams coordinator. He followed Pat Fitzgerald to Michigan State,
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: but maybe this was always a Kirk Ferentz thing. Who knows?
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: Either way, Iowa number seven in special teams efficiency and
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: Washington 86th. Washington also commits 78 penalty yards a game.
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: That's 126th. which you can see right there. Iowa only
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: number 38 in penalty yards per game. Iowa is converting
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: 21% on fourth down. That's 131st. So I would not
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: exactly count on, there it is right there, 131. And
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: Washington's defense, 15th in the country on fourth down. So
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't expect Washington to be going for, excuse me,
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: Iowa to be going for it a lot. As far
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: as trends go, Iowa 8-2 against the spread off of
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: a spread loss, which does apply here, and they are
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: 12-6-1 against the spread in conference. Washington's trends point both ways.
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: 2-9 against the spread off of a cover, but they
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: are 7-3 off of a straight-up loss. So both of
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: those apply. Washington 5-11 to the over off of an under.
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: Iowa 6-12 to the over with a total of 41.5
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: or higher. So the trends say under. The model says over.
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: I might trust the trends on this. Just saying. Iowa's
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: got nobody listed on the injury report. Washington lost their
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: safety Christian to an Achilles, and they got two running
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: backs out. That's not ideal. Weather in this one, 61 degrees,
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: light wind, 44% chance of rain in Seattle. This might
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: be one of the most Iowa games of all time.
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: It could really set up that way. You look at
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: who these teams have actually played, Iowa has faced the
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: significantly tougher schedule. Number 32 in opponent PPA margin, Washington
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: number 121. Washington has played the number 72 defenses, like
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: PPA defenses, and Iowa has played number 21. So Iowa's offense,
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: even though it's not great, has played significantly tougher competitions.
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: than what Washington has, and Washington is number 84 in
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: PPA per drive on offense. Never thought I would see
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: the day when a Jed Fish offense would look like this.
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: But alas, here we are. Here we are. Even at home,
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: even on the short week, even though Iowa has been
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: through two really tough games, I think this sets up perfectly.
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: I know that the market has gone towards Washington a
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: But I can get Iowa plus 3.5 on the road here,
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: and I think they're the better team. I know their
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: PPA margin is 59th and Washington's is 41st, but when
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: you start looking at strength of schedule, like Sagarin's strength
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: of schedule has Iowa number 38, Washington 90. You've got
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: to pay attention to who these teams have played. And
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: that Washington defense that looks really good has played the
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: number 123 toughest schedule against offenses. I like Iowa here.
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: Give me the Hawkeyes plus three and a half on
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: the road Friday night. I think they can win the
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: game outright. I think they will drag Washington into the mud,
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: and I don't think Washington is comfortable there. I would
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: look for Devon Williams to make some mistakes here. That's
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: what I would look for is some mistakes. I know
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: they haven't thrown a lot of picks. They haven't turned
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: the ball over a whole lot. They're number 19 in
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: turnover margin. Iowa's not great at takeaways thus far, but
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: this might be the spot. Give me Iowa plus 3.5.
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: Game number eight, we got UCLA at Oregon. 2.30 p.m.
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: Central Time, God's time zone on CBS. This one in
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: Autzen Stadium. Oregon minus 11.5 to 12.5, depending on the book.
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: Total is 59.5 to 60. You're going to have to
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: shop around on this one as well. The model right
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: now certainly favors UCLA in this. Oregon minus 9 on
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: the power rating. The stats model has Oregon minus 6.28.
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: Projected total here, 59.5. So the model is three to
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: six points closer to UCLA than the market, and it
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: kind of likes the under here. You know, just a touch.
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's right aligned with the model. It went
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: from 61.5 down to 59.5 depending on the book. I've
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: got a stats 59.5. That makes sense. Quarterback situation is
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: the story here. Dante Moore took a big hit at USC.
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: He was taken off on a stretcher with a concussion.
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: He's listed as questionable. Dylan Rayola came in and went
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: 19-25 for 289, two touchdowns in a 41-27 win at USC.
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: That's pretty awesome. I mean, Rayola came in and was
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: just really good for this team. That offense looked better
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: than they have basically all year, right? Both teams are
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: coming off of a bye. UCLA 4-0 in year one
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: under Bob Chesney. Nico Yamileva at quarterback. Last time out,
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: they beat Maryland 54-3. Oregon's 3-1. The one loss came
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: at Oklahoma State, and they certainly did not look good
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: in that one. But they did look good. with regular
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: quarterback at USC. So the last meeting between these two teams,
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: September of 2024 at the Rose Bowl. Oregon won that
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: one 34-13. You start looking at schedules and whatnot, I
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: don't think anybody's going to overlook anybody here because this
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: UCLA team looks legit. But Oregon gets Nebraska next. UCLA
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: gets Wisconsin. UCLA's run game, number one in the country
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: in yards per carry at 6.95. Right there. 6.95 yards
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: per carry. They are number one in PPA per rush.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: Oregon's defense number 76. Oregon is number 101 in stuff rate.
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: UCLA's offense is number three in stuff rate allowed. UCLA
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: number one in offensive line yards. I mean, this is
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: just crazy. Oregon's run defense is 69th in rushing success allowed.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: UCLA also plus two in turnover margin. They're number two
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: in turnover margin. Oregon is number nine. But you've got
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: to start paying attention to who these teams are playing, right? Oregon,
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: pretty difficult schedule thus far. Number 15 in opponent PPA margin.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: Number six, offenses faced. Number 44, defenses faced. UCLA, though,
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: has played like nobody. 133rd in opponent PPA margin. Offenses face,
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: number 122. Defenses face, number 123. They've beaten up on
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: bad teams. Oregon has beaten pretty good teams. Pretty good teams.
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: Boise State is a good football team. UCLA, also when
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: you're looking at penalties, 10 penalties a game. That is
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: one rank away from being dead last. Number 137 in
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: the country. And they're number 134 in the country in
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: penalty yards per game. like almost 86 yards per game.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: Oregon is 110th in penalty yards per game, but you're
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: still looking at like a 20-yard difference there. 20 yards
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: could be important here. Oregon's offense scores on every red
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: zone trip 100%. They're number one in the country, 85%
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: touchdown rate. UCLA plus 19 in the second half. They're
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: also number one here, so they play really, really well
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: in the second half. But Oregon also number 28 in
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: second half point margin. If UCLA is still close at halftime,
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: that's something to pay attention to. As far as trends go,
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: Chesney is 18-11-1 against the spread for his career and
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: 9-5 on the road. UCLA, 7-3 against the spread as
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: a road dog since 2024. Oregon, 10-6 to the over
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: at home. Head-to-head, Oregon, 5-1 straight up, but 3-3 against
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: the spread. Now, again, small sample size, different teams, etc.,
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: but just throwing them out there. Injuries like more is questionable,
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: but does it matter? I mean, Rayola was really, really good. Uh,
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: curious what he could look like with two weeks of, uh,
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: of work there, you know, as the number one, big
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: list of, uh, questionable receivers and tight ends. Wide receiver
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: McClellan is out UCLA. Their wide receiver Matthews is out.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: Two corners are questionable. The weather, uh, 62 with light wind, dry,
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: nice day in Eugene. Should be all right. Uh, This
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: is one of those where, you know, the model certainly
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: says to go a certain way. And the model tries
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: its best to keep up with who a team has
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: played as far as... The crazy thing, again, Sagarin, I
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: just don't understand. I don't understand this. They've got UCLA
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: 48th toughest strength schedule in the country. Oregon's 16th. But
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: when you look at PPA margin, that's a drastic difference. UCLA,
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: number 133 in opponent PPA margin. They've been beating up
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: on not very good teams. Again, this line is Oregon
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: minus 11.5 to 12.5, depending on the book. I'm going
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: to go against the model. I'm going to take Oregon here.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: I think they've got the significantly stronger roster. They're number
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: four in overall talent rank. UCLA is number 40. And
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: I think whether it's Rayola or Moore, and if Moore
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: comes in and isn't very good, I think they might
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: just go back to Rayola anyway. That's my guess. So
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: I'm going to take Oregon to cover this crazy number
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: because UCLA ain't seen nothing like this yet. And they
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: got a bye week. I think they're ready. I'll take Oregon.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: Oregon minus 11.5. Shirts, hoodies, hats, and more. The latest
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: WCE merch is now available. Support and rep your favorite
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: college football show today. Just visit winningcureseverything.com slash store. If
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: you can't watch the show live, no problem. Subscribe to
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: the Winning Cures Everything audio podcast and never miss an episode.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: Of course, make sure that you leave a five-star review.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: And don't forget, it's available everywhere you get podcasts. Game
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: number nine, back to the SEC, Ole Miss at Vanderbilt. 2.30 p.m.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: Central Time on ESPN. This one's in Nashville. Ole Miss
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: minus 9.5 with a total of 58.5 on this. It's
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: moved down a touch. Ole Miss was favored by 10.5. 57.5
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: was the total. So the number is down a point
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: or so. The total is up a point. Power rating
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: has Ole Miss minus 5.9. The stats model has Ole
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: Miss minus 4.77. The projected total is 55 on this.
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: So the model likes Vandy plus the points, and it
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: likes the under on it. Ole Miss is off of
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: a bye. Last time out, they lost to Florida 52-28,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: the first loss in year one for Pete Golding. Trinidad
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: Chambliss threw for nearly 300 yards in that one. Vanderbilt
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: lost at Georgia 38-14 last week, but they did cover.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: Blaise Berlowitz started that game. Five-star freshman Jared Curtis listed
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: as questionable. It Before you bet this, I would confirm
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: who Vandy Starter is going to be, because Berlowitz, not
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: nearly the passer that Curtis is. I'll say that. The
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: last meeting between these two, I mean, they used to
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: play every year. This was like, it was a bit
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: of a rivalry. But the last time they played was
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: October 2023 in Oxford, and Ole Miss won that one 33-7.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: Here's a look-ahead spot. Ole Miss' next two are No.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: 14 Missouri and then a trip to No. 1 Texas.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: Laying 9.5 on the road in Nashville right before that run,
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: it's a spot that you've got to be real careful with.
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: Vandy gets Arkansas next, so I don't think they're too
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: worried about that one. Ole Miss' defense has been bad.
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: 128th in PPA allowed per drive, 129th in success rate allowed,
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: like 30.8 points a game. That's 119th. Florida hung 52
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: on them. And they only had 17 at the half.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: So in the second half, I mean, they just opened
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: a can. Vanderbilt's offense has not been able to take
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: advantage of anybody, though. Success rate for Vanderbilt, number 104.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's just rough. 25 points a game. That
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: is 90th. And then there's tempo, right? Ole Miss runs,
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: let's see. Let's see. 2.582 plays per minute. That's number
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: five for pace. Vandy, just over two plays a minute,
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: and that's one-tenth. So we're talking a lot. Vandy runs,
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: it's pretty slow. Whoever controls the pace probably controls this game.
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss also, if you're paying attention, number one in
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: special teams efficiency. Vandy is number 32, so there's not
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: like a huge discrepancy there. It's not like we're talking
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: about number 100 against number one. Vandy does commit nine
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: penalties a game. It's not like Ole Miss is a
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: lot better, though. They are number 97 at 7.3, but
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: Vandy is number 129 there. As far as the trends,
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: Vanderbilt 13-3 against the spread as an underdog since 2024.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: 14-3 against the spread in conference. 21-9 against the spread overall.
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: Clark Lee's teams just cover. And Ole Miss, with a
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: total of 57.5 or higher, 3-14 to the over. Now
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: the total in this 58.5 this week, Head-to-head, Ole Miss
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: 6-2 straight up. Kind of a small sample, but it
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: is what it is. Ole Miss running back, Kiwan Lacy,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: out with a shoulder. Kind of thins out their backfield
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: a little bit. I already mentioned Curtis, the quarterback for Vanderbilt.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: He's questionable. Their wide receiver, Smith, is out.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: Out.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: Weather in this one, 84 degrees, a little breezy, about
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: a 20% chance of rain somewhere around there. Nothing too crazy.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: When you look at who these two teams have played,
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: neither of them has faced a really difficult passing defense,
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: and yet Vandy still having trouble throwing the football. Um,
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: Shouldn't have a whole lot of problems against Ole Miss, though.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you that. When you start looking at it,
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss has faced the tougher schedule thus far. Louisville,
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: who hasn't looked great, but LSU, Florida, yeah, Ole Miss
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: has played a pretty difficult schedule, and Vandy's numbers were
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: helped dramatically by playing Georgia last week. Dramatically. So, based
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: on who they play next, et cetera, and the fact
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: that Clark Leigh Just always seems to cover. I wish
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: we were still getting a 10.5. But even at 9.5,
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: I'll roll with the model. I think Ole Miss probably
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: wins this by a touchdown or so. I will take
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: Vanderbilt plus 9.5 here. Again, the stats model has Ole
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: Miss minus 4.77. Power rating has Ole Miss minus 5.9.
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: I will take Vanderbilt plus 9.5 at home. I think
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: they find a way to slow this thing down. muck
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: it up a little bit, find a way to score
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: some points. You start looking at turnover margin, etc. Ole Miss,
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: by the way, cannot generate turnovers. Number 130 in takeaways
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: per game, but they're number 95 in giveaways per game. Vandy,
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: number 69 in takeaways, number 66 in giveaways. So Vandy
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: kind of takes care of the ball a little bit.
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss is having trouble in that department. So, once again,
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: Vanderbilt plus 9.5 is the way I'm leaning on this one.
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: Game number 10, last game of the show. Houston goes
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: to Kansas State. 2.30 p.m. Central Time. God's time zone
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: on Fox. This one's in Manhattan, Kansas. Good gracious. Kansas
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: State minus 2.5 is the current line. 56 to 56.5
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: is the total currently. And my model power rating has
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: Houston minus 0.9, so minus 1. The stats spread. I
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: have not... Because my... Like, as you can see, my
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: predicted score here is 29.21 to 29.21 based on the
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: stats with strength of schedule, etc. Dead even pick'em on
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: the stats model. That's crazy. Projected total, 54.64. The model
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: likes the road team in this one. Kansas State off
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: of a bye. They lost at Cincinnati 31-26. Avery Johnson
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: threw for 292 in that one. This is year one
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: for Colin Kline as head coach. Houston 4-1 under Willie Fritz.
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: They beat UCF 27-17 last week. They did not cover.
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: Their only loss was a 28-26 loss at Texas Tech
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: on a Friday night. Connor Wigman has looked a whole
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: lot better this year than he did last year. The
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: last meeting between these two teams was in 2024. That
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: was in Houston. Cougars 24, Wildcats 19. Schedule check on this.
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: Houston gets number 18 Oklahoma State next week, and then
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: they go to Utah. Kansas State has the Sunflower Showdown
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: with Kansas next week. Neither team really in a clean spot,
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: so I'm not expecting a look ahead for either one here.
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: Houston's passing game against Kansas State's pass defense is the
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: matchup here. Houston's passing success rate, 49%, that is second
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: in the country. There it is right there. Kansas State,
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: their passing success rate allowed. number one in the country.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: So that is going to be a lot of fun
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: to watch. On third down, Houston converts 65.5%. That's number one.
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: There it is right there. I mean, that's crazy. But
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: they only have to attempt like 12.2. 12.2 third downs
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: a game. That's not bad. That's not bad. Kansas State
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: allows a passing success rate of 28%. That's number one.
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: Something's got to give here. Kansas State's weakness is big plays.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: They allow explosive plays at 14% rate or 14% clip.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: That is number 127. Houston's weakness is red zone defense,
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: number 133, 100% scoring. Opponents have scored on every trip
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: into the red zone, and they get a touchdown 90%
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: of the time. That is dead last in the country.
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: Kansas State gets to the red zone five and a
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: half times a game. That is eighth in the country.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: Red zone touchdown rate is number 30. Over 72% of
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: the time. But this is where you've got to start
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: paying attention to who these teams have played. When you
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: look at the Sagarin ratings, Kansas State, number 131 in
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: current strength of schedule, Houston, number 40. But you go
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: down and start looking at individual matchups. Like, for example,
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: offenses faced, Kansas State, number 107, toughest schedule, Houston, 58.
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: Defenses faced. Houston 34th, Kansas State number 124. I mean,
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: that's a sizable difference. Sizable difference. When you start looking
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: at strength of schedule plus talent plus five factors, Houston
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: is number 18, Kansas State is number 53. Just wild.
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: As far as the trends go, Kansas State 7-15 against
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: the spread as a favorite since 2024, 11-17 overall. Houston
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: is eight and three against the spread off of it.
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: Spread loss. They are nine and four against the spread
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: on the road. Seven and three as a road dog,
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: Houston overs, by the way, as a dog five and 12.
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: So trends like the under, as far as that is concerned, uh,
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: Houston kicker, Noel is out. That matters in a two
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: and a half point game. Plus they've got a few receivers, uh,
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: Kansas state three backup quarterbacks listed as questionable. Their wide receiver,
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: love it questionable with an arm. Um, Looking at the
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: weather here, 80 degrees, south wind at 10 miles an hour,
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: gusting to 22. It's going to be dry, so it's
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: going to be a little bit windy. Passing game is
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: going to be interesting. Houston's offense should be able to
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: run on this Kansas State defense. Houston, number 34 rush rate,
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: number 20 in yards per rush. The Kansas State defense,
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: number 68 in yards allowed per rush, number 115 in
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: PPA allowed per rush. Based on strength of schedule, based
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: on these two teams with pretty good offenses, the Houston
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: defense looks worse. But when you look at who they've played,
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: it makes a difference. I'm going to go with the
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: Road Dogg. Fritz is great in these spots. You've got
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: a long-time, wily veteran coach in Willie Fritz going up
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: against a first-year head coach. Yeah, he's coming off of
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: a bye. I get that. But... I think Houston is
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: the better overall team. So even at two and a half, like,
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: and this would not do well for my Kansas state overs. Uh,
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: I've got the regular season win total over and I've
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: got a bet on them because of the schedule. I've
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: got a Kansas state to win the big 12 and
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: I would love to hedge that at some point. Uh,
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: but just looking at these teams, who they've played, et cetera,
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: the way the Kansas state looked against Cincinnati, uh, I'm
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: going to go with Houston. I will side with the
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: model here. Give me Houston plus two and a half
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: on the road. Don't forget the models, the trends, the
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: matchup sheets, the Sunday betting recap, all that. I build
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: all of it myself. I give it to y'all. If
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: it's helped your bankroll, if you just like the show,
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: go to buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures. Toss me a coffee. Five
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: bucks a month keeps the lights on, keeps the spreadsheets running.
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: I really appreciate you guys. $ 5 a month, $ 50 for
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: the year, and you get all of that stuff during
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: the week over there. It's emailed out to you. You
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: don't have to log in all the time to check
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: it out. I give you my official best bets over there.
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: I already got two of them up this week, by
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: the way. So go ahead and check it out, buymeacoffee.com
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: slash winningcures. Let me kind of run you through the
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: board again here in about 30 seconds. The biggest model
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: gaps here, South Carolina plus 13. The bottle has Florida
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: by 3.5 to 8. Alabama minus one and a half.
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: The model actually says Bama by like five to seven
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: and a half. Nebraska plus seven and a half. Model
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: says four. Vanderbilt plus nine and a half. Model says
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: about five. Vandy is 13 and three as a dog.
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: So something to pay attention to with that. As far
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: as totals, model likes the over in Texas, Oklahoma, and Iowa, Washington.
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: That's the two lowest totals on the board, even though
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: the trends point under in both. It likes the under
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: in Ole Miss Vandy and in USC Penn State. As
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: far as look-ahead spots, Indiana's got Ohio State next week.
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: Florida has Texas and Georgia in the next two weeks.
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss has got Missouri and Texas in the next two.
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: So be careful laying big numbers with any of those
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: three there. As far as weather goes, wind and rain
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: in Tuscaloosa is expected. Now, that tropical depression could end
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: up steering to the west. We'll see. Expected to have
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: rain in Gainesville, wind in Lincoln. That's still early in
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: the week, so I wouldn't necessarily bet on weather, but still.
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: Go ahead and check those before kickoff. Don't forget, next 15,
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: it's coming tomorrow. Then three dogs. Thursday with TJ and Jason.
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: And of course you get the Friday podcast that I'll
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: be doing. I'll give out some underdog picks on that.
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: But with that said until next time. Oh yeah. By
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: the way, thank you again to prize picks. We'll be
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: talking more about them on the next show. TJ is
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: going to talk about them on Thursday, but yeah, they
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: are the new presenting sponsor of the show. We're excited
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: to have them. So, until next time, take care of yourself,
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: take care of each other, God bless college football, and
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: hopefully all of your tickets cash this week. Thanks for
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: listening to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a review or comment,
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: follow at GaryWCE on X, and check out the web store.