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The Favorites - AFC East Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Moment, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: I am joined as always by my bff, my companion,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: my compadre professional better, Simon Hunters. Simon. Today, we're gonna
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: have a guest come on, who I will introduce in
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: a moment, and we're gonna go deep on what might
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: be our producer, Matt Mitchell's favorite division in the NFL.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: There's no might, definitely is yeah exactly Today's guest a
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: senior writer for The Athletic with a decades long journalism
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: resume that includes stints at ESPN, Palm Springs Post, the
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Buffalo News. The latter has made him one of the
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: most connected, pragmatic, and well respected voices not only in
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Western New York sports media, but across the entire a
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: f C East, the host of t g a F
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: the Tim Graham and Friends Podcast. Welcome to the show,
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Tim Brat, Thanks for having me, guys, it's been a
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: long time coming. Listen to me, Tim Matt Mitchell, our producer,
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: is from the Paris of Western New York Rochester, which
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: makes him a lifelong Buffalo Bills fan, which means that
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: he has never been more set up for heartbreak in
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: his entire life. It'll be worse this year when the
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Bills don't win the Super Bowl than the four straight
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: years in the nineties when they went and didn't win.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: With multiple Hall of Famers, they've spent two decades as
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: one of the most relevant teams in the NFL, one
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: of the most irrelevant franchises in sports. Now they're Super
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Bowl faives. They've got the m v P faive, They've
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: got the guy that everyone says it's the best quarterback
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: in the NFL. Tell me about the conversation that is
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: happening in Buffalo right now. Everybody's excited but apprehensive. The
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: way that you just summed it up, for Matt is
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: is what the average Western New York sports fan is feeling.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: It is a great team. They are the Super Bowl favorites,
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: or I should say that the favorites to win the
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl um with the player who is the favorite
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: to be the m v P. He can do it all,
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: and he captures your imagination when you watch him play.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Last season and really two seasons ago, but especially last season,
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: he ironed out those performances that made you wonder if
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: he was the real deal. He has earned the distinction
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: of being the favorite to be the NFL m v
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: P this year, But disappointment is in the d NA here.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: And I'm a native cleveland Er myself, so I can
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: speak this language. You are waiting for something to happen
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: at all times, whether it's going to be COVID outbreak
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: last year was something that I think everybody was worried about,
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: especially with the vocal group of anti vaxers that the
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Bills had on their poster. There were Bills fans that
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: were saying, oh, jeez, this will be our year, and
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: then we'll get to the playoffs and there goes Cold
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Beasley and four or five others that are going to
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: be lost for for the championship game. So that was
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: hanging over their head all year. You have a quarterback
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: who runs the ball a lot and isn't afraid to
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: take a shot, so you got that in the backs
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: of the minds of Bills fans at all times. Uh,
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: something's gonna happen. Godzilla is going to rise out of
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Lake Erie and destroy, you know, half the city. Whatever
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: it is, you can concoct bills ends have probably thought
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: of it, but let's face it, and this is what
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: I keep telling people. So I have one guy in particular,
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: this local bar that I go to. It called Almost
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: and uh, it's a great wing joint. After the kitchen
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: closes at eleven o'clock, there's a guy Malcolm's his name,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: and he always comes out and he leans into me
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  Speaker 1: like I'm gonna tell him a secret, you know. And
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: this happens, you know, two or three times a week,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: and he says, Tim, Tim, tell me, are the Bill
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: is going to do it this year? And again I
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: tell him every I'm like, I think they're the best
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: team in the NFL. But Malcolm, you have to understand
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: that gives him about an eight percent chance of winning
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  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. And he's devastated every time I tell him.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: And then three days later, Uh, he comes out and
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: he does it again. But he feels like I'm gonna
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: tell him something different each time. But that's kind of
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: the deal here around Western New York. They're they're stacked.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: There was some significant changes, losing their offensive coordinator briant
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: Able to the New York Giants, of course, and Ken
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Dorsey's a first time play caller at any level. But
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: the team is is pretty much intact from last year.
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  Speaker 1: Very few changes is the everything from the general manager
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: and a vast majority of that front office down to
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: a vast majority of the coaching staff at all the
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: key positions. Uh, they have been together and playing at
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: a very high level. You're really not worrying too much
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: about guys who are aging out. Yes, you do have
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: somebody like Von Miller or a Micah Hyde to Jordan player.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Those are the those are the graybeards on defense. And
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: yet they were coming off elite season, So there's really
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: no there's not that guy on the roster that you're like, oh, man,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: I hope you can hold it together just for a
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: couple more years. No, that even their older guys are
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: in seemed to be in their prime. So yeah, it's
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: it's exciting, but around here you're holding your breath. Yeah,
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: it's gotta be a good just a good feeling for
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Bills fans knowing that you know they have they have
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: something they've had in a long time, a guy who
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: is legit top three at the QB position, which you know,
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: I'm an Eagles fan. I haven't had that since Donovan. Like,
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: it's just you just want that feeling of going to
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: a season, you just have hope because you have that quarterback. Again.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: We can talk about last year where they shut themselves
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: on the foot, right they lost that Jaguars game that
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: decided them having home field advantage. If they would have
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: won that game, the Chiefs would have been coming to,
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: you know, Buffalo. So it's just talking about a Bill's
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: team that, like Chad just said, they're the best team
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: in football. Josh Allen, he's the biggest superstar. I don't know.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: It's a touchy subject up on Buffalo, but it reminds
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: me of object Ran for that two thousand yards. He
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: was literally a guy in Buffalo right that he was
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: the most revered player. Is that the same thing right now,
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen? Is it? Like, is there anyone even close
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: to Josh Allen's level of fame right now in Western
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: New York? No, not nearly. Maybe you want to go
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: back to the Super Bowl years. You want to flip
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: over to the hockey side, Dominic Hashik. But even then,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: hockey is still in niche sport and obviously hugely embraced
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: here in this area. Hockey is, but it doesn't compete
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  Speaker 1: with what the NFL does in terms of breaking through
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: and making Buffalo and Buffalo Ians feel relevant on the
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: national stage. And you mentioned o J. And of course
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: you know that's a complicated legacy. But o J's teams
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: were irrelevant. O J went to the playoffs. I think
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: once the team was built really to not make the playoffs.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: And that's something I've actually had, uh. I've been able
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: to interview o J. Simpson a couple of times over
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: the years, and one of the things that Ralph Wilson,
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: the team's founder, had told him was, o J, people
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: come to see you play. If we don't make the playoffs.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: I only have to pay you. If we make the playoffs,
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: I have to pay everybody. So that was kind of
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: built in that we don't necessarily want to be a
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: great football team. We just want to fill the stadium.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen, though, is the expectation is super Bowl now
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: at this point, maybe not necessarily a championship, but getting
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  Speaker 1: there that's the next step that they haven't achieved yet.
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  Speaker 1: They have played in an f C Championship game, although
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: a lot of people thought two years ago that was
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  Speaker 1: a little bit of a playing over their heads, but
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: heading into last season, of course that was the expectation.
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  Speaker 1: And then this year again they're the Super Bowl favorites,
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: which which I've mentioned about eighty gazillion times already. But
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen is getting that big and I think we
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: can look that he's scraping that. He's the only player
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: who hadn't won multiple m v P Awards who played
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: in that um Made for TV Golf event with Tom Brady,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers. I mean, he seems like
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: he'd be the type of guy that, if John Madden
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: hadn't died last year, is on the cover of Madden
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: this year. I mean, he's hot, he's hit like he
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: is it. The Jersey sales outside of Western New York
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: are are crazy for Josh Allen, and that's because of
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: the style that he plays. He looks like he's having
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: fun at all times out there. Uh. He he breaks
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: the rules of the quarterback position. He trucks people, he'll
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: jump over people. He's fun that's I think hard for
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Bills fans to imagine. Sometimes, Man, we got one of
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: those guys. Not only do we have one of them,
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: we may have the one. It shouldn't be overlooked or
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: taken for granted. And believe me, around here it isn't
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: so the a f C East this year the Bills
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: minus six d made the playoffs. What are they to
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: win the division? Right now? And it's to twenty to
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: make that to win the division. It's a little bit
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: of a topsy turvy division. This year the Miami Dolphins
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: at about plus one forty two to win the division
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: and then the Patriots at plus one sixty. So you've
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: covered the Bills, You've covered the Dolphins. When you look
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: at this lineup, covered them all. I covered the a
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: f C East for free SPS. I've lived in Boston,
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: I've lived in Fort Lauderdale, and I've lived in Buffalo.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: So how topsy turvy is this? And strange is it
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: for you after twentysomething years of Patriots dominance? But more importantly,
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: when you look at this, do you see the Dolphins
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: being able to do anything that could remotely challenge the Bills? Sure?
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: I think it's going to take an awful lot of luck,
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: especially with what's happened, Uh, not just in the past week,
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: but over the past months. You know, there's a lot
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: of uncertainty there. You have to wonder how much damage
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: has been done to that team psyche and individual players
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: on that team and people in the front office to
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: know that they're with an organization that didn't necessarily want
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: them or thought that they could do better. And yes, uh,
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: they'll go out and play every week to the best
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: of their ability, but they're also human beings, and these
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: are the types of things, these toxic things that get
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: in your culture, that that elusive thing that can't be
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: defined of culture that the Bills have in spades, that
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: the Patriots probably still do have, but maybe you don't
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: have the talent to go along with it. Um. But
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins and the Jets certainly still trying to sort through.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: And I'm not saying that they can't find it or
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: that these are lost franchises, but this is not what
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: it's supposed to look like when you're building um culture
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: over years, and it's something that just doesn't happen overnight.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I think Miami is gonna have to have
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: a lot of things go right and and get maybe lucky,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: have some uh maybe a little bit of a you know,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: magic wand you know, catching some breaks that they're out
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: of their control type thing. Um. But but I do
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: like what the Dolphins have done from a talent standpoint.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: I like the coaching decision. But again, there's just so
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: much in the fabric of that organization that is is
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: really dysfunctional, and I think that that is something that
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: has to be overcome as an organization. I mean, we
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: even see organizations that haven't had as much turmoil, and
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: you've got people who just want to jump ship, you know,
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: like uh and I'm not you know, got players who
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: are demanding trades here and there. The Browns are a
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: bad example because they've been just as dysfunctional. I mean,
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: I don't know if we want to get into a
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: competition as to who's been more dysfunctional, but we have
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: you know, Kareem Hunt wants out and people were talking
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: about how long until Myles Garrett wants out? And uh,
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: you know the Bears have guys who want out. You know,
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: you get that all around the the NFL with these teams.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: But that's how fickle things can be and the Bills
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: have figured that out. They don't necessarily have to worry
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: about it. They have just so much continuity, and of
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: course they have that key position lockdown where you don't
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: have to worry about the Bills flirting with some other
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: quarterback because they aren't quite sure if their guy has it.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: And oh, by the way, if we don't go out
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: and get somebody else, no, no, we like this guy
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: all along, you know. And you could see that that
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: it's you know, a lot of milk toast, uh, plaudits
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: and things of that nature. So I think that the
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Bills win the division. However, wasn't Maybe the biggest lock
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: in all of NFL last season was that the Bills
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: were gonna win the A f C East And it
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: came down to the very end because the Patriots found
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: a way to scratch together wins with their rookie quarterback.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: But if you were to take a look at the
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: betting uh on pretty much any of the futures, the
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: most dominant bets were Bills were gonna win the division. Uh.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: And I think that the Chiefs, even though they were
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: picked to win the Super Bowl, or at least the
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: bet the public was betting on the Chiefs to win
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. It was a lot closer for them
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: in terms of the a f C West and getting
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: through you know whatever. From a betting standpoint, the Bills
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: were lopsided even I think more so than Tampa Bay
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: to win their division, and they almost didn't. We talked
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: about it last year. The win told was that eleven
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: and a half. That was just too easy of a trap, right,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: We joked all the time when it was eleven and
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: a half twelve, that's the sports books taking all the
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: money in. We kept telling people that in the Vikings
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: were the two overs. We kept saying, stay away from
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: the books are sitting a line. They keep taking money
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: and they're not moving the number. So the Bills this
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: season their their division definitely improved, but honestly not enough
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: to make me be as confident I was last year.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: And they're under a bet in the sense that I
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: think this team is a twelve and five team. Like
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: I look at the Bills. I've run through their division,
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: run like simulate their season. It keeps coming back above twelve, right,
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: I keep getting either twelve point four twelve point three
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: wins for them, And I'm looking at the Bills team
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: that I try to explain to people are our job
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: here is to give them the best bet for value wise. Right,
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: So we talked last week about the NFC North just
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: because I think green Bay is gonna win. I don't
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: think you should tie your money up for eight nine months.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: You know, minus one seventy bet on green Bay, Right,
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: I want to give you a big plus number. Futures
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: are tough from the start, right, You're not only not
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: only do you need to have, you need value. You
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: need really a lot of value. Right. So when I'm
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: looking at the Bills here at minus two minus two twenty,
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: that's a fair price, honestly, Like I I look at
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: this Buils and I still think they're above everyone else
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: in the division. And we're about to get through these
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: other teams. But to me, the Bills are a team
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: where you pair up. Right, If you like green Bay,
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: like I do, pair him together, right, you're taking a
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: minus one seventy and minus two hundred team. Put them together,
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: may be to get a plus number just a little
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: over that minus one ten. So to me, if you're
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: if you're gonna bet these big favorites, I don't hate
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: it because again We've seen the Bills there. They're back
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: to back, they won two straight years now of this division.
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: I don't again, we're gonna tell these other teams. I
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: just don't feel the threats, like, yeah, they lost to
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: row C. He was great. He's given Josh Allen the tools.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen has a confidence. We know what he has
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: a wide receiver, they drafted a running back form. I
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: just I can't see all the negatives where the Bills
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: were last year. Last year was a natural negative, right
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: they went to the FC Championship game a young team
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: which expected them to have step back because there's gonna
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: be a lot of bumps. So coming to this season again,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna tell you Wane to put minus put
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: two hundred on minus two hundred a bet, but I
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: do think there is value in this Bills team to
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: pair with other divisional leaders that yeah, the end of
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: the year, I expect the Bills to win this division. Yeah.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: I've written a lot about Ken Dorsey taking over as
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: the offensive coordinator and the different theory is that are
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: how things are going to change. Usually you hear first
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: time play caller in his life, not even you know
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: the high school um first time play caller. It makes
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: your heart skip a little bit, but you usually hear
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: about that with young coaching staff, new coaching staff, rebuilding organization,
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: taking a shot on a young hot shot play caller
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: type thing I'm thinking of, you know, like Joe Brady
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: and Carolina. Joe Brady now on the Bill's staff, by
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: the way, is their quarterbacks coach. But Ken Dorsey is
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: in a stable organization with the quarterback who can cover
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: up a lot of problems. He played the position and
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: everything in his within his credentials say that he should
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: have no problem with this transition. That's not to say
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: that there won't be you know, um, you know growing
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: pains and learning. You know the pace and what what
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: goes through his mind. It's third and four from the
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: forty six yard line with a minute and a half,
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: you know, whatever the situation is where you could choke.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: I'm sure he'll go through some periods where he doesn't
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: exactly call the exact play that he wanted to in
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: a specific moment. Maybe he's out of time outs, whatever.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: But he played the position for so long. He's known
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: for his being overprepared and everything he's ever done, he's
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: known for his intelligence. Um, I think he'd really have
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: the gag to be noticeable. However, however, the Bills do
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: start pretty tough. Uh, their schedule. Of course, they're They're
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: in the opener on Thursday night against the Rams out
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: in Los Angeles. They have the Titans, They're at Miami
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: at Baltimore, Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's not isn't as formidable as that
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: they used to sound when you'd hear Pittsburgh, although you know,
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: Mike Tomlins still hasn't ever had a losing record. But
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: and then Kansas City at Arrowhead, Bye week, Green Bay
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: on Sunday Night football. If Ken Dorsey has even a
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: little bit of struggle, that's gonna become a storyline, that's
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: gonna be a thing. And uh and even if he
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: gets it straightened out in November and December, you know
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: how first impressions are. If Ken Dorsey is known as
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: somebody who maybe doesn't you know, isn't getting it right,
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: isn't firing on all cylinders right away? You know, That's
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: that's the only thing that would concern me if I
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: were a Bills fan. By by all measures, he seems
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: like he's got a handle on this. Then he and
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen have a great relationship which is paramount. The
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• 21:20
  Speaker 1: You mentioned the Patriots. You've covered the Patriots. Their odds
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: to win the division plus one sixties, so just a
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: little bit behind the Dolphins last year nearly scratched out
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: a division title. Mac Jones This year, new offensive coaches,
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: not coordinators, as they're not naming them coordinators, but reports
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: out of camp that offense looks terrible. They had a
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: good day to day apparently. I mean, I don't know,
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: I wasn't there, but apparently so maybe the reporters are
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: just getting sicker right in the same thing every day
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: and they just feel like right and that they had
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: a good one. So when you hear that, when you
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: see that, as a veteran NFL reporter, how much salt
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: do you take with the training camp reports of his
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: performance knowing that it's Belichick and no one expected anything
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: last year and they found a way to contend. You know,
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: you guys probably have the numbers or if there, if
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: there is even such a thing to break down what
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: Belichick does to the betting line, whether he inflates it.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: But you know, I'm going back to my days when
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: I when I lived in Vegas and it was you know,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: for in the nineties, and it was always a safe
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: bet to take whoever was was playing the Cowboys because
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys back then, this is before the you know,
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: internet gambling. And but in the Vegas books, Notre Dame
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: was given too much credit and the Cowboys and forty Niners.
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: You get a lot of forty Niners action up in
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: the Reno sports book because they'd come across the border
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: and bet and betted up in Reno. But I'm guessing that, uh,
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: that Belichick gets a little too much credit. He deserves
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: some of it. I mean, there's a there's a mystique
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: all about Bill bella check and how he's able to
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: pull this off. I just don't see it with the
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: exception of him retooling this team in the image And
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: believe me, I'm not making a comparison that they can
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: do the same thing. But going back to the pre alright,
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: let's say the the immediate Drew bled Zoe aftermath or
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: towards the end of the Drew bled Zoe era of
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: we are going to build the most dominant defense we
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: can and hope that we can bring this quarterback along
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: and whenever we need to flip the switch if our
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: quarterback ever gets too good and we need to, uh,
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: all of a sudden, start spending the money on offensive
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: linemen to protect him and weapons and all these other
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: things like the Bills are gonna be doing once Josh
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: Allen's next contract kicks in next year. But for now,
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: we're gonna spend money on defense, and we are going
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: to play opponents tight and hope that they break serve,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: which is the Bill Belichick blueprint. Unless you have two
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: thousand and seven New England Patriots and Brandy Moss and
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: West Welker and then you can sling it all over
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: the field and your defense can you can take the
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: day off and you can win a shootout. Um, I
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: don't want to say take a day off, but that
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: those defenses they had some stars on them, but in
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: general weren't great. But it used to be the New
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: England Patriots. They were fabulous defensive teams and Tom Brady
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: was the game manager until he evolved into something different.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: And I think that they just want Mac Jones to
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: be a game manager. He doesn't need to be a superstar.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: So I think it's a little bit of a fool's there.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: And to take a look at the quarterback position in
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: New England and say, well they can't be any good
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: because I don't think much of Mac Jones. Well that's
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: that's not what they're built upon. They don't want or
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: need Mac Jones to carry him. But where I am.
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: What I don't get with the Patriots is that the
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: offense I don't I don't understand it. You're gonna have
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: defensive guys calling the offensive plays. I mean, I know
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: it's been done. I mean the football is football. At
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: least there's some belief in that. You know, if Patricia
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: is gonna be calling the plays or Bill himself, for hell,
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe they'll let Mac Jones call him.
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: Maybe they'll uh, maybe they'll throw up the you know,
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: the boards like Chip Kelly on the sideline back in
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: the day with little images on them, and they'll let
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: him pick a pick a picture and call it play.
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: There's just something is a jumbled mess on that offense,
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: and that's where I think it circles back to some
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: people just think it's Bill Belichick and he'll figure it out.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: I'm not. I think Bill Belichick is the greatest football
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: coach of all time. But I am not one of
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: those who just all of a sudden is just gonna assume, well, hell,
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: he proved us wrong again last year, didn't he, Well
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: he'll figure it out again this year. They seem to
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: have gotten worse on offense. Patriots to me, just don't
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: don't do anything. They're gonna have to force turnovers and
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: sees on on mistakes rather than going out there and
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: winning games. I wouldn't do their over. I think it's
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: eight and a half New England like you, just like him,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: just talked about we don't really know what to think.
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: As we said here in early August, that's just the
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: number I'd wait on. We gotta see some life in
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: this offense. The biggest thing I've read so far is
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: that it's offensive line problems. They literally their offensive line
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: is terrible right now for New England. So I'll back
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: with Tint said, I wouldn't put any money on this
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: Patriots team. That's one of the teams. I'll wait and
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: see um how the president plays out, because to me,
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: they're under under talented. Last year they had the fifth
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: quarterback drafted. He was by far the best quarterback last year.
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: Like you, are they getting too much credit just because
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: they're the Patriots? I mean, is is my thinking on that?
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: I mean that's a guess, But is that a Does
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: that play into the number or is that baked baked
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: into the numbers that we're looking at now that no
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: one cares like maybe they did the first year, but
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: Tom Brady has gone. Like as much as I want
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: to give Bill Belichick all the praise in the world,
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: he had Tom Brady for twenty years. Me and Chad
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: talked about it last year like we would use numbers
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: based on Tom Brady and Bill Belichick together. But do
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: we see the betting public still giving the Patriots credit
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: or taking taking a risk because they they think the
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: Patriots that they have this, have the have the secret formula.
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: No pros think that. I think it's just the betting public.
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: They probably the third or four biggest fan base in
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: all of football, so people are gonna bet on them.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: But like pros, no, no one, no one has the
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: fear or respect to Bill Belichick to give him an
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: extra winner win and a half. It's just more that
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: he's just a proving guy who's smarter than other coaches,
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: like his back against the wall bill to configure things out.
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: So that's that's probably the respect that we give them.
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about the New York Jets here. I mean,
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: I dare to say it, maybe just because I got
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: some momentum going here, but maybe I'd like the Jets
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: more than I do the Patriots. Oh my god, I'm
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: talking about value. I'm not saying like head to head,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: but let's lay I'm taking. I'm taking. I'm anticipating the
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: numbers here the Jets right now plus twenty four hundred
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: to win the a f C Eastking Miami plus four
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: fifty to win the a f C East New England
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: plus five hundred Jets plus twenty four hundred to win
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: the a f C East, and there are win totals
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: five and a half. I like the over on that,
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: so does this. There's something to be said for a
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: team that's closed the gap. They're they're they're entering uh
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: the next year in a in a coaching regime and
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: an organization that seems now. Of course, they just had
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: you know, the the Bigay Beckton, The news is bad.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: I love what they did in the draft. Of course
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: you can't bank on rookies um too much, but they
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: were able to get the best player at various positions
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: on the board heading into the draft, with the way
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: you know, the pass rusher and the cornerback and the receiver.
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: And again that's not to say that they have it
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: all figured out, but and that's where when you take
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: a look at what teams have done, it doesn't happen
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: in a vacuum. Of course, just because one team has improved,
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: you say, well they figured it out. Well, all their
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: teams are improven to their shifting that the Jets are
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: going to be more competitive this year. Obviously you can
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: steal a game, and in a seventeen game season, I
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: like the over. I should say in five at one
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: of the most bed overs for the year according to
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: sports books and New York Jets based almost entirely on
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: fan response and enthusiasm to their draft. It's my biggest
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: it's right now my biggest underbelt. So me and Tim
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: are completely opposite sides. I just them in. The Bears
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: are my two biggest fade teams this upcoming season. Um,
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: Zach Wilson has shown me nothing. He got outplayed by
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: his backup who end up beating the Bengals in a
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: throwaway game. So, Zach Wilson, if you can take the
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: next step, if I can see this could read a defense,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: and I look like a deer in headlights. It was undersized.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: I'll be about it. But right now, the Jets to
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: me an inflated line like their bet up. You want
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: to take a respect given to the Patriots. This line
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: is a game more than it should be just because
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: of New York sports books like this line is just
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: getting pounded. But to the over, because the Jets fans
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: are so excited about this team, where me, as a professional,
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: I need to take that value. So I had them
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: at four wins for the season and getting a free
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: game and a half towards the over. I love the
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: under just again, it's because they're in such a hard division.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: The Bills, Miami Patriots, all of them. I have them
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: rated much higher than I do this Jets team. So
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: why hate being that guy? I'm just is why you
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: don't need to have me on the show, because I'm
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: i am betting public, right, you know, I I don't
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: have the numbers here. I haven't I haven't worked out
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: my my over unders for all thirty two teams. Uh
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: so yeah, I'm I'm certainly going on field. I'm certainly
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: going on because and that's you know, that's that's what
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: makes this so interesting. I was gonna say that's what
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: makes it so fun, but it doesn't. Losing is not fun.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: But it's what, you know, is the role, a little
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: bit of the roll of the dice. But um what
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: what the Jets have done has intrigued me enough that
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: I'll take the over and uh I'll be the fish.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: All right, Well, now we got a little bit of
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: a wager. We can see how it plays out through
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: the course of the year. Tim Graham, I am Chad Millman.
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: He is Simon Hunter for Matt Mitchell. This has been
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: the favorite podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. Down order
• 31:00
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• 31:03
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• 31:06
  Speaker 1: a gift until next time. I love you, Yeah,