Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / 3 Years of Silence, Bad Wedding Dates & The Kentucky Derby with Mike Conti

Transcript

3 Years of Silence, Bad Wedding Dates & The Kentucky Derby with Mike Conti · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz, your host,
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: back at it with my peeps. The first lady of
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: the pod, Miss Kendra Middleton, the Prime Minister of DJEN Nation. Stucky,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Big Pop Pump. You guys ready to bet some horses.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: We've got Mike Kanti joining us later on in the podcasts,
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: and we will plant our flag on the Kentucky Derby. Kendra,
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: best name in the field. I know that you've already
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: scoped this out, so go tell.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Us what is it?
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: Every single year, this is how I bet on who
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: I think is going to win, and it has done
• 0:47
  Speaker 3: me wrong for forever.
• 0:48
  Speaker 4: I'm going right to party is the best. It's not
• 0:50
  Speaker 4: even close. But if I had to pick a number two,
• 0:52
  Speaker 4: it would be litmus Test.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Litmus Test was on my short list as well. I
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: think Chief Wallaby. There's something about that that just kind
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: of rings a bell for me. Stucky, best name in
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: the Kentucky Derby field, I'll go, I'll.
• 1:07
  Speaker 5: Go, Chief Wallaby, And it does look like. I was
• 1:10
  Speaker 5: really curious to see if Prediction Markets were going to
• 1:13
  Speaker 5: offer the Derby, but it doesn't look like they are.
• 1:17
  Speaker 5: There's like a I was curious to see if they're
• 1:19
  Speaker 5: going to go against the horse Interstate Act or something,
• 1:22
  Speaker 5: but it looks like they're not. But I'll say favorite name,
• 1:27
  Speaker 5: Chief Wallaby, which is who I may or may not
• 1:31
  Speaker 5: be betting on. More to come on that later.
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: Yes, we will dive deep into all of that.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: I'm interested in the prediction markets thing because the fact
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: that you can bet on which politician is going to
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: win which gubernatorial race but you can't bet on a
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: horse seems odd to me. But perhaps a different conversation
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: for a different day, Stucky, if you had to name
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: a horse after an obscure college football player, who would
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: you roll with? I could see, like, I could see
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: you naming a horse like Logan Woodside or something like that.
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: I've got my answer.
• 2:09
  Speaker 5: If I had to name a horse.
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: Off of like a player from the MAC or something
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: like that.
• 2:16
  Speaker 5: Oh well, I was actually gonna say, uh, like, how
• 2:21
  Speaker 5: about one of my favorite Mac players ever was a
• 2:24
  Speaker 5: quarterback at Mimau, Ohio, Gus Ragland.
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: It would be a great horse name, calling the Gus.
• 2:29
  Speaker 5: Buss, either Gus Ragland or the Gus.
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: Boss you guys fumbled this. The easy answer is General Booty. Ooh,
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: you guys totally fumbled that.
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: The easy answer is General Booty.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, not enough time to really put the proper thought
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: into it. Pikendra coming off the top rope with the
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: right answer, Stucky, what you got for us this week?
• 2:53
  Speaker 5: General Booty had a nil partnership with Rockham socks and
• 2:59
  Speaker 5: he was right a horse in the promo for what.
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: It's would have been like wet wipes.
• 3:05
  Speaker 5: I'm serious, like, uh, this is the picture? Can you
• 3:09
  Speaker 5: even see?
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: General?
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: I'm telling you, I mean the picture is already living
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: on the internet.
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: This is great.
• 3:18
  Speaker 5: What were you saying?
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: It's your question?
• 3:21
  Speaker 5: My question for the for the debt.
• 3:23
  Speaker 6: Hey, this is a dumb question.
• 3:26
  Speaker 5: Let me ask you a personal question.
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: Kind of question?
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: Is that is question?
• 3:32
  Speaker 5: My question is you have to answer you you found
• 3:35
  Speaker 5: a bottle in your house, a lamp and a genie
• 3:39
  Speaker 5: comes out, and you have to answer this right now.
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: There's no time to think about it. I give you
• 3:46
  Speaker 5: a million dollars right now, or I give you a
• 3:51
  Speaker 5: billion dollars if you do not speak one word for
• 3:57
  Speaker 5: the next three years, so you can't say anything now.
• 4:03
  Speaker 5: If you talk in your sleep. That's fine. So here
• 4:05
  Speaker 5: are the stipulations you. Like I said, you have to
• 4:08
  Speaker 5: decide right now. So you can't like call anyone and
• 4:10
  Speaker 5: tell them that, hey, I'm not gonna be able to talk.
• 4:13
  Speaker 5: If you do talk, then you don't get anything. It's
• 4:17
  Speaker 5: not like you get the million dollars and then you
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: would get the billion if you complete the challenge at
• 4:24
  Speaker 5: the end of the three years. Our producer saying, worst
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: question ever because it would be the easiest decision to
• 4:34
  Speaker 5: take to go for the billion. I completely disagree. I well,
• 4:40
  Speaker 5: you guys think about it. I mean, number one, my job,
• 4:43
  Speaker 5: which I love, is the talk. I'm a talker in life,
• 4:48
  Speaker 5: like socially, I like to go out talk to people.
• 4:52
  Speaker 5: I have a wife who if I couldn't talk to
• 4:55
  Speaker 5: for three years, but what happened to the marriage? I
• 4:57
  Speaker 5: just have a kid.
• 4:58
  Speaker 6: Now.
• 4:58
  Speaker 5: If I was like single but still and I like
• 5:00
  Speaker 5: to go out even more, then maybe it'd be a
• 5:02
  Speaker 5: little easier without a kid. But you know, obviously a
• 5:07
  Speaker 5: billion to a million, it's a huge difference. But for
• 5:10
  Speaker 5: quality of life for three years, I don't think I
• 5:14
  Speaker 5: would be able to do it my fam I also,
• 5:17
  Speaker 5: my family doesn't live close to me, so keeping in
• 5:19
  Speaker 5: touch with them. So I think I'm taking a million.
• 5:24
  Speaker 5: Just give me the million. Now, I couldn't do it.
• 5:27
  Speaker 5: I would suffer too much with the way, with what
• 5:31
  Speaker 5: I like to do, and just to be three years
• 5:32
  Speaker 5: of misery for me.
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: I have a questions billion.
• 5:35
  Speaker 5: But Gendrew, could.
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: I speak to myself and my house?
• 5:40
  Speaker 5: No, you can't say anything.
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: It's a million. There's no fucking way. I tell myself.
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: I'm a dumbass in my own home. At least thirty
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: times of the day, I yell at the dog like
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: I don't yell at the dog, but like I love him,
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: like but like, no at your dog. I don't yell
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: at my dog. It was just I was just speaking.
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: But however, I would have one Margarita and that would
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: be over immediately.
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: I could not do this. There's no way.
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: No.
• 6:07
  Speaker 5: Evan says he could do it. He doesn't speak anyway,
• 6:09
  Speaker 5: which is true.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Like it is there like a stipulation to this where
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: if I take the if I take the billion dollar option,
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: but then I break the promise, like a year in
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: I accidentally have to Margarita's like Kendricks saying, and then
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: you start talking.
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: It's just like you don't get anything.
• 6:24
  Speaker 5: Yeah, like I said, you don't you get zero, then
• 6:26
  Speaker 5: you get zero.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: I think I would say I would still go for.
• 6:29
  Speaker 5: The going a year and a half without talking, and
• 6:31
  Speaker 5: then you you mess up and then you get nothing.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: No, I go for the billion. I mean we are
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: in the sports betting industry. This is like we're I'll
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: write them notes. He'll be fine. He doesn't need me.
• 6:49
  Speaker 5: To give it all your mistresses.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: See this is a perfect example. Stuck you my mouth
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: gets me into more trouble than it helps me.
• 6:59
  Speaker 5: Well, say.
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: My dog in my life. Now people are gonna think
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: that I yell at my dog.
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: I mean animal cruelty. You just admitted to.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: So this is now your this is now you're brow
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: I'm stuck with the mistress's thing. You're stuck with this, Okay.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: I I get myself into more trouble with what I say.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: I actually think that my career would would boom. I
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: think my relationship would improve. I'd probably even be a
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: better father if I never said another word.
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: And then at the your career, your career is talking.
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: Who cares, I'm gonna make a billion?
• 7:29
  Speaker 5: I know, say your career like Mike, I like my
• 7:33
  Speaker 5: I love my job, so think that's why. So I
• 7:35
  Speaker 5: wouldn't be able to do my job. And obviously you don't.
• 7:37
  Speaker 5: You don't need to work, like if you get the billion,
• 7:40
  Speaker 5: but I love my job. I love going out, I
• 7:41
  Speaker 5: love talking to people. Like, what would you think your
• 7:44
  Speaker 5: your relationship would.
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: My relationship would definitely get better if I, well.
• 7:48
  Speaker 5: The good thing is like you're like your you're well,
• 7:53
  Speaker 5: I guess your wife would just own you, like as
• 7:54
  Speaker 5: you can't even say anything back, but it guess it
• 7:57
  Speaker 5: would lead to less fewer arguments, maybe argue. Imagine like
• 8:01
  Speaker 5: really wanting to say something to defend yourself and your
• 8:04
  Speaker 5: wife's just like nope, nope.
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: I think I could still host this podcast. I mean,
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: you two are very talkative.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: I would just hold up a little sheet of paper
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: says welcome to the favorites, and then you'll let you
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: guys the next topic.
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: You could just be like all right, Stucky go and
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: he would talk for four hours and then your job
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: would be done.
• 8:19
  Speaker 5: That's it, okay, Stucky go. All right, so you're going
• 8:24
  Speaker 5: for the billion, I'll take a million, Benzro, you're taking
• 8:27
  Speaker 5: a million.
• 8:28
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: I literally would have one sip of alcohol and need
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: to be on an elevated surface and it would be
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: over for me.
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, just no sober for it's three years.
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: I would have to be on a deserted island to
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: not even just call myself a dumbass one time during
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: the day.
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: I would literally just have to become no no.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: What I find fascinating is that our producer Gifford Gold
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: before we usually we have no idea what the question
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: is going to be, Stucky chose to prim us this
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: time they'll peek behind the curtain, and Gifford said that
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: this was a terrible question, and Sucky had mentioned that
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: moments ago. But he says it's a terrible question because
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: he would easily take the million. We have already created
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: debate on this, and our statsound Evan Abrams is on
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: my side with this. The only other person that agrees
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: with shut up for three years and take a billion dollars. Evan,
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: back me up here, we're taking the money.
• 9:24
  Speaker 6: This is ridiculous.
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: I honestly can't believe.
• 9:26
  Speaker 7: I mean, I understand I enjoy talking too, I mean
• 9:29
  Speaker 7: part of my career is on a microphone as well,
• 9:31
  Speaker 7: but we're talking about life changing money. To shut up
• 9:34
  Speaker 7: and I do so many other things and then when
• 9:36
  Speaker 7: it's over, I go back to it. I mean, would
• 9:39
  Speaker 7: it be hard at times? Of course, I'm married, there's
• 9:41
  Speaker 7: you know, things going on. You know, I got parents, you.
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: Know, life is life. But this is stucky.
• 9:47
  Speaker 5: Some of your questions, this is not one of them. No,
• 9:50
  Speaker 5: I would I what do you mean I'm taking You're
• 9:52
  Speaker 5: clearly taking the billion. I'm clearly taking the million. Like
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: you know what, Like I could I could dine in
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: two years too, Like I don't want to give up
• 9:59
  Speaker 5: three years of my life, like my quality of life,
• 10:02
  Speaker 5: and like enjoying my life for three years for and
• 10:07
  Speaker 5: by the way, it's not guaranteed. I would probably mess
• 10:09
  Speaker 5: it up. This is the other thing, Like I would slip.
• 10:12
  Speaker 5: And imagine being two and a half years into it
• 10:14
  Speaker 5: and you slip and.
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: You have a margarita.
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: To motivated.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: This is like, this would be like having the you know,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: we always get the question from sports betters out there, like, hey,
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: I've got this parlay or this future's bet that's doing well,
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: should I hit the cash out option?
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: And the answers almost always no, don't do that, either
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: write it out bet the other side whatever, Like this is.
• 10:42
  Speaker 5: You guys will preference though, like this is you guys
• 10:45
  Speaker 5: are this.
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: Is the equivalent to hitting the cash out option.
• 10:47
  Speaker 5: No, they have a chance the person. This depends on
• 10:50
  Speaker 5: the person, their life, they're where they're at in life.
• 10:54
  Speaker 5: Like I just mentioned all those other things, Like also,
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: my parents are way older, like they're I don't know,
• 10:59
  Speaker 5: they're good chance that they're both not here in three years,
• 11:01
  Speaker 5: So like I just I don't talk to my parents
• 11:03
  Speaker 5: for the rest of their lives.
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: So like this is getting depressing.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: No, geez, I can't argue with that.
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: There's all the thing my mom's old and she lives
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: in Florida, Like.
• 11:14
  Speaker 5: I, yeah, you wouldn't be able to talk to your
• 11:16
  Speaker 5: mom for three years.
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: Or like their doctors, like what if you need to
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: communicate with like you know what I'm like no, or like.
• 11:21
  Speaker 5: Your kid is your kid ends up? Like say, my
• 11:23
  Speaker 5: kid is choking and I got to go tell someone,
• 11:25
  Speaker 5: but like I gotta call nine one one, but I
• 11:27
  Speaker 5: can't because of this.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: I feel like I'm having a conversation with two people
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: that don't know that email and texts exist.
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: This is.
• 11:35
  Speaker 5: Hey, email nine will email the hospital?
• 11:38
  Speaker 6: My kid?
• 11:38
  Speaker 5: My kids said choking? Here I live and send an ambulance.
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: I don't have a wife, I don't have a kid.
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: I need human interaction, you asshole.
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: This has sparked much pets.
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: It correct. I need to yell at my shrimp.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Speaking of pets, we have Mike Kanti horse racing betting
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: expert that's going to be talking ponies with us. Can
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Kentucky Derby bets in a moment. But first a word
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: about DraftKings.
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: The NBA Playoffs are in full swing and our partners
• 12:07
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• 12:11
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• 12:34
  Speaker 4: DraftKings the Crown is yours.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: Join now by Mike Contie horse racing expert Kentucky Derby's
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty second running coming up this weekend.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: We got a couple of scratches that we got to
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: talk about and a whole odds board in front of us.
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: Mike, thanks for hopping on. This must be your favorite
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: time of the year. I would assume this.
• 12:55
  Speaker 6: Is my favorite time of the year. And I hate
• 12:57
  Speaker 6: to say this. I have to go to a wedding
• 12:58
  Speaker 6: on Saturday. In my world, it should be illegal for
• 13:02
  Speaker 6: anybody to get married on Derby Saturday. But the good
• 13:05
  Speaker 6: news is I get to go to the races tomorrow Friday,
• 13:08
  Speaker 6: so I do get to go for Oaks Day. So
• 13:10
  Speaker 6: looking forward to.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: That, I would think, because it's such a short event,
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: that you'd be able to watch this from the wedding
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: without any sort of issue, A nice little crowd around
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: the bar so here.
• 13:23
  Speaker 6: So yes, but I mean one, you know, there's a
• 13:26
  Speaker 6: full day of races. Right As a horse racing fan,
• 13:29
  Speaker 6: I am invested in the full day. Two, the ceremony
• 13:32
  Speaker 6: is supposed to go like they're having this ceremony at
• 13:35
  Speaker 6: like six point thirty. The race is at six fifty
• 13:38
  Speaker 6: seven Eastern, like it's gonna be tight. I've already made
• 13:42
  Speaker 6: comments to everybody that my phone will be out and
• 13:45
  Speaker 6: I will be watching the race if the ceremony is
• 13:48
  Speaker 6: not over at six fifty seven.
• 13:52
  Speaker 5: That is that it's supposed to show you can't please you.
• 13:54
  Speaker 5: You'll never be able to please everyone. Though for a wedding,
• 13:57
  Speaker 5: I'm always like, never get married during ball May is fine,
• 14:02
  Speaker 5: but then there's you know, the worst people out there
• 14:04
  Speaker 5: aren't gonna be happy if you do it on one
• 14:07
  Speaker 5: of the big race days.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: It's the Kentucky Derby. Like, you've got here.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: All you have to do is everybody watches, every sports
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: fan watches the Kentucky Derby. All you have to do
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: is not get married at six o'clock.
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: That's all you have to do.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: You got one job any other time in the day,
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: and you're good. This could be a question for another day,
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: but most unacceptable day to get married, let's just bank that.
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: Just go ahead and answer it.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: Then we'll get into horse racing, Kendra, most would it
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: just be Super Bowl Sunday? Is that the easiest answer
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: to this?
• 14:41
  Speaker 5: Sunday is overrated in my opinion?
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: Like I wouldn't care, Yeah, but could you imagine inviting
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: someone to a wedding on Super Bowl Sunday, that seems psychotic.
• 14:51
  Speaker 5: Yeah, but there's nothing else going on the entire day,
• 14:53
  Speaker 5: like you want to watch seven out Like I'm so
• 14:56
  Speaker 5: bored on Super Bowl. The other there's a couple of
• 14:58
  Speaker 5: college basketball games, but they even stop it like four.
• 15:02
  Speaker 6: I don't know.
• 15:03
  Speaker 5: I would much rather if if I had to go.
• 15:05
  Speaker 5: I mean I wouldn't go to either. But if I
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: had to go to a wedding and it was between
• 15:10
  Speaker 5: like Super Bowl Sunday or like Week six on a Sunday,
• 15:12
  Speaker 5: I would choose Super Bowl Sunday all day same.
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: I was going to say the Iron Bowl is one
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: of those days that me personally I could not do
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: because Auburn gal. But I don't know.
• 15:25
  Speaker 5: I'll have to think about it. We won't take up
• 15:27
  Speaker 5: too much much time.
• 15:27
  Speaker 6: But I think it's like New Year's one day that one.
• 15:30
  Speaker 6: Weddings are awesome, not now, not now with the college
• 15:34
  Speaker 6: football playoff. Yeah, I said New Year, I said New
• 15:38
  Speaker 6: Year's Eve.
• 15:39
  Speaker 5: Yeah, college football playoff now?
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: No way?
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, New Year's Day would be a good day to
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: have a wedding though. Agree with that, right, Let's get
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: turn over, you.
• 15:47
  Speaker 5: Go out, No, no, that's awful. I think the worst
• 15:50
  Speaker 5: day though, is there's always that one college football Saturday
• 15:53
  Speaker 5: where that's like the year top twenty matchups, and then
• 15:58
  Speaker 5: like it's that you cannot missed this day, Like that's
• 16:01
  Speaker 5: probably the worst day each year.
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, hard hard to map that out year.
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: All right, let's let's dive into it.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: How many betters out there do you think if you
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: had to lay a percentage on me, Mike, do you
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: think bet the Derby and then pretty much wrap up
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: the horse their horse betting from there?
• 16:19
  Speaker 6: The majority and the and the tope board will tell
• 16:22
  Speaker 6: you that just looking at you know, the wind pool
• 16:24
  Speaker 6: and how much money is bet into the Derby, it's
• 16:27
  Speaker 6: the most bet race of the year by far and
• 16:30
  Speaker 6: away seventy percent, I would say, maybe more.
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that sounds pretty accurate. So we've got this.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: There's a new craze that is hitting the sports betting
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: world and it's impacting horse racing perhaps as much as
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: anything else. There's a controversy over computer computer assisted wagering.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: Can you explain what paramutual betting is and why these
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: are causing such issues?
• 17:00
  Speaker 6: Yeah, So what paramutual betting is is you're essentially betting
• 17:04
  Speaker 6: against the public, so odds are changing. Rights as an
• 17:08
  Speaker 6: average or a normal sports better you're used to. Okay,
• 17:12
  Speaker 6: you know Auburn is minus four and a half this weekend,
• 17:15
  Speaker 6: you bet them at minus four and a half, and
• 17:17
  Speaker 6: the line throughout the week or throughout the day, whatever
• 17:20
  Speaker 6: it is, moves to five and a half. Six points
• 17:23
  Speaker 6: your bet. When you bet Auburn at four and a half,
• 17:26
  Speaker 6: you lock them in at four and a half. Horse racing,
• 17:29
  Speaker 6: it doesn't matter. You can bet today for the Kentucky
• 17:32
  Speaker 6: Derby on Saturday, but it doesn't matter what odds your
• 17:36
  Speaker 6: horse is right now. It matters what odds your horse
• 17:40
  Speaker 6: is when the gate's open. So that's the difference in
• 17:43
  Speaker 6: paramutual wagering, and then to the point of the CAW
• 17:47
  Speaker 6: or computer assisted wagering, it's a big controversy. It's really interesting,
• 17:54
  Speaker 6: you know. It's these large syndicates that are using data
• 17:58
  Speaker 6: and different model and also have different access to some
• 18:02
  Speaker 6: data and access to betting into the pools that allow
• 18:06
  Speaker 6: for the odds to change somewhat at times drastically as
• 18:11
  Speaker 6: the gates are opening, and so the average better like
• 18:13
  Speaker 6: any of us may bet on a horse that goes
• 18:16
  Speaker 6: into the gate at five to one, and the computer
• 18:19
  Speaker 6: assisted wagering, you know, teams and syndicates may hammer that
• 18:24
  Speaker 6: horse just before the gates go off, and by that
• 18:27
  Speaker 6: time that the horse crosses the wire, you're getting two
• 18:30
  Speaker 6: to one instead of five to one on your bet. Now,
• 18:33
  Speaker 6: the last comment that I'll make about this is the
• 18:36
  Speaker 6: interesting part is there's a takeout, So the tracks make
• 18:41
  Speaker 6: money based on how much money is bet into a
• 18:44
  Speaker 6: specific racer into the specific pool. On average across North America,
• 18:49
  Speaker 6: that takeout is about twenty percent. So if there's a
• 18:53
  Speaker 6: million dollars bet on a race, the track is making
• 18:56
  Speaker 6: two hundred thousand dollars. These computer assisted way during syndicates
• 19:01
  Speaker 6: are wagering hundreds of millions to billions of dollars a
• 19:06
  Speaker 6: year on these tracks, and so there's just too much
• 19:10
  Speaker 6: money for the tracks to want to do something about it.
• 19:15
  Speaker 6: This week could go down this whole rabbit hole. There's
• 19:16
  Speaker 6: no centralized governing body in racing, which is part of
• 19:20
  Speaker 6: the problem here. At a high level, I think you
• 19:23
  Speaker 6: kind of get the gist, but happen to answer any
• 19:25
  Speaker 6: follow ups.
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah, is there for somebody that's diving in and betting
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: the Kentucky Derby because they like betting into triple Crown races.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: Is this something that you need to understand and listening
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: to this or is this really impactful for those that
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: are betting horse racing throughout the.
• 19:41
  Speaker 6: Year much more the latter than the former, much more,
• 19:45
  Speaker 6: you know, the guys like me that are betting every
• 19:47
  Speaker 6: weekend as opposed to you're betting, you know, the Derby
• 19:52
  Speaker 6: or even just Derby Day, you're not going to notice.
• 19:54
  Speaker 6: And again because you're also talking about pools that are
• 19:58
  Speaker 6: much larger excuse me, that are much larger in general,
• 20:02
  Speaker 6: and so that the caaw's have, while an impact, far
• 20:06
  Speaker 6: less of an impact than they would on your average
• 20:09
  Speaker 6: Friday or Saturday.
• 20:11
  Speaker 5: And there are fixed odds out there, and I believe
• 20:14
  Speaker 5: in Kentucky recently passed a law where they're going to
• 20:16
  Speaker 5: have fixed odds available, but not in time for the Derby.
• 20:18
  Speaker 5: BELI I think it's like July.
• 20:20
  Speaker 6: Yeah, it's it's down the road. I know it passed.
• 20:23
  Speaker 6: I don't know if it's gone if they've set a
• 20:25
  Speaker 6: date for it to go into effect. There are like
• 20:27
  Speaker 6: New Jersey has fixed odds. There are a handful of
• 20:30
  Speaker 6: states that do have fixed odds for horse racing, but
• 20:34
  Speaker 6: it's it's totally different because there's obviously a lot more
• 20:38
  Speaker 6: like risk and liability for the tracks when you're dealing
• 20:42
  Speaker 6: with fixed odds as opposed to the paramutual wagering.
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: YEP, I have a super random question.
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: So I was looking at all of the horses who
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: were going to be racing on Saturday. I know nothing
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: about horse racing, so I am very new. But as
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: someone who's new, I travel a lot, and when I
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: travel super far, I get exhausted. Is that something that
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: you consider when betting on horses? Because then I saw
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: some of them are coming from like the UAE, some
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: of them are from Japan, and then like some of
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: these horses have been racing in Florida and all over
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: the place. Is that something that's considered when kind of
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: building these odds and looking at maybe a winner.
• 21:19
  Speaker 6: Yeah, it's a great question. So I would say less
• 21:22
  Speaker 6: about the travel around this around North America, around the States,
• 21:27
  Speaker 6: the horses coming in from out of the country, right,
• 21:29
  Speaker 6: there's a whole process to, you know, shipping these horses
• 21:32
  Speaker 6: halfway around the world in some instances. The other interesting
• 21:36
  Speaker 6: thing is in Japan they run the opposite way. So
• 21:40
  Speaker 6: where our horses in North America are taking left hand
• 21:44
  Speaker 6: turns around the turn, the horses that are coming out
• 21:47
  Speaker 6: of Japan are used to taking right hand turns. So
• 21:50
  Speaker 6: not only are you dealing with travel, obviously, you know,
• 21:54
  Speaker 6: different temperatures do different things. There's different soil types, so
• 21:57
  Speaker 6: there's a lot in there to take into consideration. What
• 22:02
  Speaker 6: I would say though, Kender two is there's a part
• 22:05
  Speaker 6: of it where the horses are here early enough to
• 22:08
  Speaker 6: try to acclimate and adjust from the travel like jet
• 22:11
  Speaker 6: lag as a human, so they should be adjusted by
• 22:15
  Speaker 6: that point, but there still are so many differences and
• 22:18
  Speaker 6: nuances that they're going to have to deal with for
• 22:20
  Speaker 6: the first time.
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: Okay, I had no idea that they run the opposite way.
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: I also hear, like on the broadcast every year people
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: talk about like descendants of like Sea Biscuit, and how
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: pretty much every horse is like a descendant of Sea Biscuit.
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: How much do you take into consideration their lineage or
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: who their parents are or those types of things.
• 22:39
  Speaker 6: Yeah, it's a great question, I think from a especially
• 22:41
  Speaker 6: from a distance standpoint, so just to kind of acclimate
• 22:45
  Speaker 6: everybody for the derby is a race that horses can
• 22:49
  Speaker 6: only run one time in their lives. It's only for
• 22:52
  Speaker 6: three year olds. They can be phillies or cults. Phillies
• 22:55
  Speaker 6: or females. Cults are males, so it could be either.
• 22:58
  Speaker 6: I don't remember the last time that we have had
• 23:00
  Speaker 6: at a philly that ran in the Derby. So most
• 23:01
  Speaker 6: of the time it's for colts. It's the longest race
• 23:06
  Speaker 6: that they have run up to this point in their career,
• 23:08
  Speaker 6: at a mile and a quarter. And for most of
• 23:11
  Speaker 6: these horses, it's the only time that they will ever
• 23:14
  Speaker 6: run against twenty other or nineteen other horses in their career.
• 23:19
  Speaker 6: So there is something to be said about the lineage
• 23:21
  Speaker 6: and the breeding, especially from a distant standpoint, because if
• 23:26
  Speaker 6: you've ever seen the movie Secretariat, they talk about horses
• 23:29
  Speaker 6: are either bred for speed or stamina, and so there
• 23:33
  Speaker 6: is something to be said for the lineage, especially on
• 23:36
  Speaker 6: the stamina side, when you have these three year olds
• 23:39
  Speaker 6: who are going to go a mile and a quarter
• 23:40
  Speaker 6: for the first time in their lives.
• 23:42
  Speaker 5: Well, speaking of lineage, back in over one hundred years ago, sir,
• 23:47
  Speaker 5: when Sir Barton won the Triple Crown, did it, I
• 23:50
  Speaker 5: believe like thirty two days with another race in between.
• 23:53
  Speaker 5: And now there's a lot of talk of the timing
• 23:56
  Speaker 5: of these races. The Triple Crown race is moving right,
• 23:59
  Speaker 5: moving the freaking back, which might give us more opportunities
• 24:03
  Speaker 5: for a Triple Crown winner. So I need to get
• 24:05
  Speaker 5: your thoughts just on the tradition versus that aspect of it,
• 24:09
  Speaker 5: and whether you would be in favor of doing it
• 24:11
  Speaker 5: or not, and how you think that all plays out.
• 24:14
  Speaker 6: You know, I'm a traditionalist. To me, what makes the
• 24:18
  Speaker 6: Triple Crown so difficult is running three races at three
• 24:23
  Speaker 6: different tracks over the course of five weeks. And again
• 24:26
  Speaker 6: to acclimate folks that don't or aren't as familiar with
• 24:28
  Speaker 6: horse racing. The typical cycle or pattern for a horse
• 24:32
  Speaker 6: when they are in form, meaning when they're in good
• 24:34
  Speaker 6: condition and running regularly. That regular is somewhere between every
• 24:39
  Speaker 6: four to six weeks is when they will be running.
• 24:42
  Speaker 6: So the fact that you're going to try to embark
• 24:44
  Speaker 6: on this journey of winning a triple Crown, to run
• 24:47
  Speaker 6: three races in three different states across five weeks, that's
• 24:51
  Speaker 6: what to me makes it so special. I don't love
• 24:54
  Speaker 6: the idea of spacing it out. I am all for
• 24:58
  Speaker 6: you know, horse health and making sure that we're doing
• 25:01
  Speaker 6: everything with the horse in mind. And I think last
• 25:04
  Speaker 6: year we saw that with Sovereignty. Sovereignty won the Derby
• 25:08
  Speaker 6: and his trainer Bill Mott said Nope, we're not running
• 25:11
  Speaker 6: in the Preakness, and they came back and ran and
• 25:13
  Speaker 6: won the Belmont, So you know, could that You know,
• 25:16
  Speaker 6: the question is like, if Sovereignty ran in the Preakness,
• 25:19
  Speaker 6: could we have had a triple crown winner last year? Maybe,
• 25:21
  Speaker 6: but they were trying to do what they believed was
• 25:23
  Speaker 6: best for the horse. So I'm all in favor of
• 25:25
  Speaker 6: keeping it the way that we have it now.
• 25:27
  Speaker 5: Money always wins, though, do you think it ends up
• 25:29
  Speaker 5: getting moved?
• 25:31
  Speaker 6: Money does always win. It's a good question. Until we
• 25:36
  Speaker 6: have a centralized governing body in the sport of horse racing,
• 25:40
  Speaker 6: I don't think it'll move because at the end of
• 25:41
  Speaker 6: the day, this is up to the individual tracks. Now,
• 25:45
  Speaker 6: the fact that Churchill Downs just received rights to now
• 25:50
  Speaker 6: own the Preakness, could that potentially change it, But then
• 25:54
  Speaker 6: they would have to work with NIRA, the New York
• 25:56
  Speaker 6: Racing Association, to potentially move the Belmont. So I don't
• 26:01
  Speaker 6: see it happening until we have you know, some more
• 26:04
  Speaker 6: central governing body for the sport of horse racing.
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: I know that this episode is a Kentucky Derby specific episode,
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: but we're all about making money here. What can we
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: take away from whatever happens this weekend and apply it
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: to betting on the Preakness and the Belmont.
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a.
• 26:19
  Speaker 6: Great question, Kender. So one thing I'll say is, you know,
• 26:22
  Speaker 6: from a Preakness perspective, you're not going to see a
• 26:25
  Speaker 6: ton of these horses that are going to go to
• 26:26
  Speaker 6: the Preakness. Potentially you'll see the winner, but no guarantee.
• 26:30
  Speaker 6: Look last year was a great example. I would say
• 26:33
  Speaker 6: that we will see I wouldn't imagine that we would
• 26:36
  Speaker 6: see more than three horses run in the Preakness. So
• 26:38
  Speaker 6: from a betting standpoint, I always like to look at
• 26:41
  Speaker 6: the horses that didn't run in the Derby, whether it
• 26:44
  Speaker 6: was because they didn't get in and didn't have enough points,
• 26:46
  Speaker 6: maybe they know trainers decided to opt to point them
• 26:50
  Speaker 6: somewhere else. They might have had like a little bit
• 26:52
  Speaker 6: of a hiccup earn injury along the way. So horses
• 26:55
  Speaker 6: coming in fresh to the Preakness, I think is always
• 26:58
  Speaker 6: a really good angle and then from a Belmont perspective,
• 27:02
  Speaker 6: you're going to see more of these horses from you know,
• 27:05
  Speaker 6: this weekend that will run in the Belmont. And I
• 27:09
  Speaker 6: think that that is also an interesting angle to look
• 27:11
  Speaker 6: at because that's more going back to that form cycle.
• 27:14
  Speaker 6: That'll be five weeks, so that more kind of fits
• 27:17
  Speaker 6: with the form. So the horses that ran in the
• 27:19
  Speaker 6: Derby that are now coming in fresh to the Belmont
• 27:21
  Speaker 6: another great angle to look at.
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: Like that idea of long term profitability. To take us
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: back to the Kentucky Derby. What what weighs the odds
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: the most? Is it the trainer, the horse or the jockey?
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: Oh man, that's a really good question. I would say
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: that it's it's the horse.
• 27:42
  Speaker 6: Frankly, I would say that, yes, there are you know,
• 27:45
  Speaker 6: components to trainers and jockeys that may play into morning
• 27:51
  Speaker 6: line odds, but for the most part, it is going
• 27:54
  Speaker 6: to be the past performances of where the horses run,
• 27:58
  Speaker 6: who the horses run up against, you know, how well
• 28:00
  Speaker 6: the horse has performed before, and then the Derby, I
• 28:03
  Speaker 6: would say probably more so than any other race. It's
• 28:06
  Speaker 6: also like what prep races the horse has run in,
• 28:10
  Speaker 6: and we can get into that a little bit in
• 28:12
  Speaker 6: terms of, you know what, the most prestigious prep races
• 28:16
  Speaker 6: are the prep races that yield the most Kentucky Derby winners.
• 28:20
  Speaker 5: Well, looking at this year's field, I would say I
• 28:23
  Speaker 5: would I would say this is People always say this,
• 28:26
  Speaker 5: and it's always that it's wide open, but I think
• 28:28
  Speaker 5: this year, more so than most, it's pretty damn wide open.
• 28:32
  Speaker 5: I'm actually among my group of friends, I'm famous for
• 28:35
  Speaker 5: betting the Derby because I've been betting. I've hit some
• 28:37
  Speaker 5: exotics here and there, but I've been betting the Derby.
• 28:39
  Speaker 5: I'll just pick one winner and bet them since like
• 28:41
  Speaker 5: high school, We're talking for twenty plus years and I've
• 28:44
  Speaker 5: never won one. So I'm like, oh for twenty one
• 28:48
  Speaker 5: and I pull. I'm pulling like a lot of people,
• 28:50
  Speaker 5: like I'm in Kentucky. I live half a mile from
• 28:53
  Speaker 5: the freaking Stone. A lot of like serious sportslaers. I
• 28:55
  Speaker 5: always pull them like get like, I'm like, who does that?
• 28:57
  Speaker 5: Who does the sharpest horse? People?
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: I know?
• 29:00
  Speaker 5: Like, still doesn't work, but I have like my gut
• 29:04
  Speaker 5: says that the quote unquote sharp horse never wins in
• 29:08
  Speaker 5: the Derby, like the horse that's taking sharp money I
• 29:10
  Speaker 5: don't know if that's true or not. But my horse
• 29:13
  Speaker 5: this year that I got just from asking people that
• 29:15
  Speaker 5: I know follow the sport really well is Chief Wallaby.
• 29:19
  Speaker 5: And my gut says that I'm gonna en up betting
• 29:20
  Speaker 5: on him and he's gonna be the quote unquote sharp horse,
• 29:23
  Speaker 5: and then Chief Wallaby is not going to win. Any
• 29:26
  Speaker 5: thoughts on that horse and my hypothesis there.
• 29:30
  Speaker 6: I do like Chief Wallaby number one. I think that
• 29:34
  Speaker 6: he does stand a big chance. I do think that
• 29:36
  Speaker 6: he's a little bit of that, you know, like wise
• 29:39
  Speaker 6: guy horse this year. The interesting thing about Chief Wallaby is,
• 29:43
  Speaker 6: you know, going back to the idea of prep races,
• 29:45
  Speaker 6: he ran in the Florida Derby last time out finished
• 29:48
  Speaker 6: third to two other horses in this race, Commandment and
• 29:51
  Speaker 6: the Puma. The Florida Derby has proven to be a
• 29:55
  Speaker 6: really strong prep race for the Kentucky Derby. You could
• 29:59
  Speaker 6: make an argue that he had a little bit of
• 30:01
  Speaker 6: traffic trouble in that Florida Derby. It's also interesting to
• 30:04
  Speaker 6: note we were talking trainers and jockeys. The trainer jockey
• 30:08
  Speaker 6: combo of Chief Wallaby is Billmont and Junior Alvarado, who
• 30:12
  Speaker 6: were the trainer jockey combination on sovereignty. Who won the
• 30:16
  Speaker 6: Derby last year?
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: Wait, so why do favorites struggle so bad?
• 30:22
  Speaker 5: Well, it's not necessarily the favorite, but like, whoever liked
• 30:26
  Speaker 5: the sharp the horse that's taking a lot of money?
• 30:29
  Speaker 5: And yeah, you know that we were asking, like sharper horse,
• 30:32
  Speaker 5: guys tend to like that horse? And do you do
• 30:34
  Speaker 5: you agree with Mike that it seems like that horse
• 30:36
  Speaker 5: never wins?
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: Right?
• 30:37
  Speaker 5: Totally?
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: The favorites have been struggling lately too.
• 30:42
  Speaker 6: Correct. We went through we went through a pretty good
• 30:45
  Speaker 6: stretch like in like just prior to twenty twenty, I
• 30:48
  Speaker 6: want to say it was like twenty maybe sixteen to nineteen,
• 30:52
  Speaker 6: fifteen to nineteen we had like six straight, five straight
• 30:57
  Speaker 6: favorites win the Derby. Now, you know, you look at
• 31:01
  Speaker 6: it and you know rich strike you had made, you
• 31:03
  Speaker 6: had authentic like you had a couple of horses over
• 31:06
  Speaker 6: the last five six years now that have won at
• 31:09
  Speaker 6: massive odds country house. So yeah, thirteen to eighteen was
• 31:15
  Speaker 6: the year the years that favorites won every single year,
• 31:18
  Speaker 6: and we saw a couple of triple Crown winners in
• 31:20
  Speaker 6: there with American Pharaoh and Justify as well.
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, favor they as a one in seven years. Go
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: and check out actionnetwork dot com. By the way, Evan
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: Abrams has a phenomenal rite up, including the initial letter,
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: the percentage of wins that you're getting from specific letters
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: that these names start with, which is just I mean,
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: for me, as sharp as it gets.
• 31:42
  Speaker 5: Well, that's the letter A.
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: We're all over the letter A. Go ahead, stucky.
• 31:45
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I was gonna say I might have to start
• 31:47
  Speaker 5: using that, just going based on letter analysis. But yeah,
• 31:50
  Speaker 5: the favorite one every year from thirteen to eighteen and
• 31:52
  Speaker 5: then hasn't won since. But the favorite this year, renegade
• 31:56
  Speaker 5: gets the pole position and the winner at the derby,
• 32:00
  Speaker 5: and the pole position hasn't won in forty years, I
• 32:01
  Speaker 5: believe any thoughts on the favorite and that curse and
• 32:06
  Speaker 5: whether it can be broken.
• 32:08
  Speaker 6: So I would say I'd put a little bit of
• 32:10
  Speaker 6: an asterisk on pole position number one. A few years
• 32:13
  Speaker 6: ago they changed the starting gate, so pole position number
• 32:16
  Speaker 6: one was this dreaded pole position forever in the Derby
• 32:20
  Speaker 6: because it's a mile and a quarter race and where
• 32:23
  Speaker 6: they start with the old starting gate, it was pole
• 32:28
  Speaker 6: position one. You were like tucked inside of the far
• 32:32
  Speaker 6: turn on the start, so like you either had to
• 32:34
  Speaker 6: go out of the gate or you kind of had
• 32:36
  Speaker 6: to hold back a little bit because you were basically
• 32:38
  Speaker 6: if your horse ran straight, was going to run right
• 32:41
  Speaker 6: into the fence, and so it was a significant disadvantage.
• 32:46
  Speaker 6: A few years ago they produced a brand new starting
• 32:50
  Speaker 6: gate that it's now all it's one long gate of
• 32:54
  Speaker 6: twenty horses, where what they used to have was an
• 32:56
  Speaker 6: extension gate, and so now it's all one long gate
• 33:00
  Speaker 6: so that the horse in post position one is not
• 33:04
  Speaker 6: at that disadvantage. In terms of Renegade, you know, we
• 33:08
  Speaker 6: talk about trainer jockey combination. Todd pletcher Irad Ortiz Junior,
• 33:12
  Speaker 6: one of the best jockeys in the world coming out
• 33:15
  Speaker 6: of the Arkansas Derby, which also has proved to be
• 33:17
  Speaker 6: a very strong prep race historically for the Kentucky Derby
• 33:21
  Speaker 6: and for those even if you're not familiar with horse racing,
• 33:25
  Speaker 6: you may know the name Mike Ropoli, who's the owner
• 33:28
  Speaker 6: of Renegade. Rapoli has been, you know, an entrepreneur and
• 33:31
  Speaker 6: very successful in many walks of life in the sports world.
• 33:34
  Speaker 6: He is very closely tied to Saint John's basketball is
• 33:38
  Speaker 6: one of their biggest boosters and he is, you know,
• 33:42
  Speaker 6: trying to kind of put himself out there to become
• 33:45
  Speaker 6: the commissioner of horse racing, So talking about a governing body,
• 33:48
  Speaker 6: there's a lot of good that he does for the sport.
• 33:51
  Speaker 6: So Renegade, you know, I think a deserving lukewarm favorite.
• 33:58
  Speaker 6: You know, if we want to get really technical with it,
• 34:00
  Speaker 6: Renegade's not run a triple digit buyer speed figure. Buyer
• 34:05
  Speaker 6: speed figures are what we used in horse racing to
• 34:07
  Speaker 6: kind of talk about how fast a horse is, and historically,
• 34:11
  Speaker 6: coming into the Derby, a horse will have had to,
• 34:14
  Speaker 6: at some point in his career or her career run
• 34:17
  Speaker 6: a triple digit buyer to win the Derby is a
• 34:20
  Speaker 6: lot of times what we've seen, and Renegade has not
• 34:22
  Speaker 6: done that. While he has progressed. I think it'll be
• 34:25
  Speaker 6: interesting to see, you know, what happens on Saturday with Renegade.
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: Mike, what is your strategy when you go into the
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: Kentucky Derby is or any horse race? And does it
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: differ is there are there certain things that you're looking for,
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: certain boxes that have to be checked before you bet
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: on a horse, and then who would end up checking
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: those boxes?
• 34:46
  Speaker 6: Yeah, it's a great question. I think the first thing
• 34:48
  Speaker 6: that I do in every race, whether it's the Derby
• 34:50
  Speaker 6: or not, is I try to determine what the pace
• 34:52
  Speaker 6: scenario of the race is. And the reason why that's
• 34:55
  Speaker 6: so important is, you know, is there going to be
• 34:57
  Speaker 6: a lot of pace? Is it going to be a
• 34:59
  Speaker 6: fast early race? Because that then tech typically sets up
• 35:02
  Speaker 6: for the closers or people coming from behind, Whereas if
• 35:06
  Speaker 6: there's not a lot of pace in the race, you know,
• 35:08
  Speaker 6: those horses that are more forwardly placed, either on the
• 35:11
  Speaker 6: pace or just off, are probably going to have a
• 35:14
  Speaker 6: better chance. And so taking that that's the first thing
• 35:17
  Speaker 6: that I look at when I'm looking at it, and
• 35:19
  Speaker 6: then from there you start getting into the weeds of Okay,
• 35:21
  Speaker 6: what are their past performances, what's their running style? You know,
• 35:25
  Speaker 6: what was the last race that they ran in? Have
• 35:27
  Speaker 6: they run against any of these horses before? There's a
• 35:29
  Speaker 6: lot more that can go back into it.
• 35:32
  Speaker 5: Well, if we're people are looking to put together exotics
• 35:36
  Speaker 5: there and this is a pretty wide open field, can
• 35:39
  Speaker 5: you throw out a couple horses that you would you
• 35:43
  Speaker 5: were just not considering. So like there's I think there's
• 35:45
  Speaker 5: one horse and no ice that hasn't raced in what
• 35:47
  Speaker 5: seven weeks, or like, there's only there's one with I think,
• 35:51
  Speaker 5: who is it emerging something only has two career starts,
• 35:54
  Speaker 5: or maybe it's a merging market from Japan or from
• 35:56
  Speaker 5: the UA, Like are there a couple of horses that
• 35:58
  Speaker 5: you just think don't even consider putting them in any exotics?
• 36:02
  Speaker 6: Yeah, So I would say that one of the horses
• 36:05
  Speaker 6: is six speed number seventeen coming from the UAE Derby.
• 36:10
  Speaker 6: I think that the horse. You know, again, don't get
• 36:12
  Speaker 6: freaked out. I think the horse could be either on
• 36:15
  Speaker 6: or near the lead, but I do not like the
• 36:18
  Speaker 6: horse's chances to even hit the board. As we're talking
• 36:21
  Speaker 6: about exotics, so I would definitely toss there the other one,
• 36:25
  Speaker 6: you know, if I'm tossing there, I'm also tossing Wonder
• 36:28
  Speaker 6: Dean who won the UAE Derby. We've not seen any
• 36:31
  Speaker 6: horses come over and run super well from the UAE Derby,
• 36:36
  Speaker 6: so those are definitely two that I will be tossing.
• 36:39
  Speaker 6: The Wood Memorial has proven time and time again to
• 36:42
  Speaker 6: not be a great prep race, and so I'm tossing
• 36:46
  Speaker 6: number five right to Party, and I'm also tossing number
• 36:50
  Speaker 6: three Intrepido. So those are definitely four horses that I'm
• 36:53
  Speaker 6: not even considering in my tickets. So in a twenty
• 36:57
  Speaker 6: horse field, you know, cutting down twenty percent of the
• 37:00
  Speaker 6: field right off the bat is helpful as you start
• 37:02
  Speaker 6: thinking about ticket structure.
• 37:04
  Speaker 5: Yeah, you horses from the UA Derby, oh for twenty
• 37:07
  Speaker 5: one Since two thousand at the Kentucky Derby only one
• 37:11
  Speaker 5: finished in the money forever Young and twenty twenty four
• 37:14
  Speaker 5: finished third.
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: Well that just screwed me because I always just bet
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: on the horse that I think has the coolest name,
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: and I think Right to Party has the coolest name
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: this year. But speaking of names, my final question is
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: how do they come up with names for their horses?
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: And if you had a horse, what would you name it?
• 37:30
  Speaker 6: So fun fact, I am a partial owner and two horses,
• 37:32
  Speaker 6: one of whom is running on Friday at Churchill Down,
• 37:36
  Speaker 6: so I will be at the races on Friday to girls.
• 37:39
  Speaker 6: Thank you So names of horses, though, Kender, this is
• 37:44
  Speaker 6: a great question. It's essentially it's up to the owners.
• 37:48
  Speaker 6: It does have to pass, like what's the right way
• 37:53
  Speaker 6: to put this? It's got to pass, like not legislation,
• 37:56
  Speaker 6: but it's it's got to pass approvals essentially of the
• 37:59
  Speaker 6: jockey club. There's only only a certain number of characters
• 38:01
  Speaker 6: that it can be. It has to do, you know,
• 38:04
  Speaker 6: like they have to approve it at the end of
• 38:05
  Speaker 6: the day. Most of the time or some of the time,
• 38:09
  Speaker 6: you will see something to do with the parents of
• 38:12
  Speaker 6: the horse. Another example, I mean, we just mentioned stuck.
• 38:17
  Speaker 6: You mentioned a horse Emerging Market. Clarevitch Stables is the
• 38:21
  Speaker 6: owner of Emerging Market. All of his horses are named
• 38:25
  Speaker 6: with something to do with financial markets in some way,
• 38:27
  Speaker 6: shape or form. So if you see any horses like that,
• 38:30
  Speaker 6: you know that it's a Clarevitch Stables horse. So it's
• 38:32
  Speaker 6: really up to the ownership group to name their horse.
• 38:35
  Speaker 6: My horse that's running on Friday at Churchill Downs, her
• 38:38
  Speaker 6: name is Miss Call. And the reason that we named
• 38:41
  Speaker 6: her Miss Call was because at the sale we almost
• 38:45
  Speaker 6: didn't get her because the buyer missed our call to
• 38:49
  Speaker 6: actually purchase her. So we named her Miss Call.
• 38:53
  Speaker 5: That's awesome. I believe the qualifications. It's got to be
• 38:57
  Speaker 5: under eighteen characters, has to be unk, no profanity, and
• 39:02
  Speaker 5: it can't end in a horse related term, like you
• 39:06
  Speaker 5: can't say like the something stallion.
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: Correct.
• 39:09
  Speaker 5: But I think that those are the qualifications that Miss
• 39:12
  Speaker 5: Call all right, I'm gonna throw.
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: It sounds like uh, it sounds like an email password,
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: and then you need.
• 39:17
  Speaker 5: Some sort of Yeah, it can't be all numbers. It
• 39:18
  Speaker 5: can't be all all new numbers, or it.
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: Has to be uh, just a touch was my favorite
• 39:23
  Speaker 4: a couple of years ago. I that was the one
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: that I went with that year, and I can't I'll
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: never be over that game.
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: Yes, yes, we are you are you?
• 39:36
  Speaker 6: Are you all?
• 39:37
  Speaker 5: I have two rapid fires that I need to know
• 39:39
  Speaker 5: from Mike. Okay, all right, so favorite I'm biased because
• 39:45
  Speaker 5: I live I would live right near Keelan. I will
• 39:48
  Speaker 5: drive my bike through there all the time. That's my
• 39:49
  Speaker 5: favorite tracks. I need to know your favorite track in
• 39:51
  Speaker 5: the country. Saratoga not even close. I love Sarah, although
• 39:56
  Speaker 5: I will say that Miss Call, I was stuck you.
• 39:58
  Speaker 5: I should have told I should have told you this.
• 39:59
  Speaker 6: Miss All ran at Keenland four weeks ago and she
• 40:04
  Speaker 6: won at Keenland. So I was down at Keenland for
• 40:06
  Speaker 6: her race four weeks ago. But no, I love Saratoga.
• 40:09
  Speaker 5: Damn Yeah. I saw American Pharaoh at Travers there, which
• 40:15
  Speaker 5: was awesome. And Scott what was What was your favorite
• 40:20
  Speaker 5: race you've ever been at.
• 40:23
  Speaker 6: I was also at that Breeders Cup for American Pharaoh
• 40:25
  Speaker 6: when he won the.
• 40:26
  Speaker 5: Breeders No, American Pharaoh was no. I saw him that
• 40:29
  Speaker 5: that freakmus that.
• 40:30
  Speaker 6: Uh at the Travers up at Saratoga.
• 40:32
  Speaker 5: I saw the Travis Saratoga too.
• 40:34
  Speaker 6: Nice lost.
• 40:35
  Speaker 5: Do you know what he lost to Key Nice? He nice?
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 40:39
  Speaker 6: So I saw American Pharaoh win the Breeders Cup. I
• 40:42
  Speaker 6: was at Keenland. We had tickets right on the finish line.
• 40:45
  Speaker 6: And I don't know that I've ever experienced anything in
• 40:49
  Speaker 6: a live sporting event where the like the roar of
• 40:53
  Speaker 6: the crowd when he turned for home in front, knowing
• 40:55
  Speaker 6: that it was going to be his last race, knowing
• 40:58
  Speaker 6: that he won the Triple Crown, and for the that
• 41:00
  Speaker 6: aren't familiar with horse racing, after the Triple Crown, one
• 41:04
  Speaker 6: of the biggest races of the year is the Breeders
• 41:08
  Speaker 6: Cut Classic, and he won that race, which was the
• 41:12
  Speaker 6: last race of his career. And so being at the
• 41:14
  Speaker 6: last race of this you know, historical career of American
• 41:18
  Speaker 6: Pharaoh and just absorbing everything from the crowd was a
• 41:21
  Speaker 6: surreal experience.
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: Yep, that's mine is going to a horse race, like
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: a bit I'm talking about, like one of the big ones,
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: going to it live. Is that one of the more
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: underrated live viewing experiences that's out there. I mean I
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: would I would venture to guess that you're gonna say
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: yes to that. But it's something I just don't hear
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: a lot of people talk about that. Like it's almost
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: like like going to a golf event is fun, but
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: it's like the worst live viewing experience because you basically
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: have to like set up shop and one one spot
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: and then you miss everything else that's going on. It's
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: all very subjective to your experience. I've never been to
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: one of these big time horse races. Is that one
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: where you say, if you're a big time sports fan,
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: you gotta get there.
• 42:08
  Speaker 6: I would say yes for the experience. Here's the challenge though,
• 42:12
  Speaker 6: that I would say is on the big days, because
• 42:14
  Speaker 6: of TV coverage and contracts and everything else, the spacing
• 42:18
  Speaker 6: between the races can get pretty long. Like on Derby Day,
• 42:24
  Speaker 6: the Derby goes off at six fifty seven pm Eastern.
• 42:28
  Speaker 6: The race before the Derby goes off at five thirty
• 42:31
  Speaker 6: nine pm Eastern, so you have an hour and twenty
• 42:35
  Speaker 6: minutes in between races, and so yes, there's food, there's drinks,
• 42:40
  Speaker 6: but it's also like you're there for this event and
• 42:42
  Speaker 6: you're waiting an hour and twenty minutes between those races.
• 42:45
  Speaker 6: So that's where I think it can be a little
• 42:48
  Speaker 6: bit more challenging for just like the casual or average fan.
• 42:52
  Speaker 6: But on the big days, you get dressed up, you know,
• 42:54
  Speaker 6: women get dialed up. The guys are are, you know,
• 42:56
  Speaker 6: wearing fly fits. Like it's it's really cool, it's really fun,
• 43:00
  Speaker 6: but it's a unique and it's a different type of experience.
• 43:03
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I would say that, yes, you gotta go, especially
• 43:07
  Speaker 5: like but mentioned the American pharaoh Breeders. I was like
• 43:09
  Speaker 5: people were like it was like people saw like Elvis
• 43:12
  Speaker 5: ire Incarnate, like it was insane. But it also just
• 43:15
  Speaker 5: depends on where you sit. Also, like that's any sporting event, right,
• 43:19
  Speaker 5: Like you go to the final four, you could sit
• 43:22
  Speaker 5: with the last row and you're like have need binoculars
• 43:25
  Speaker 5: or you can have really good seats like that. That depends.
• 43:27
  Speaker 5: So I grew up going to Preakness and when I
• 43:31
  Speaker 5: was in like high school, cop I never saw a horse.
• 43:34
  Speaker 5: One time I was in the infield, just trying to
• 43:36
  Speaker 5: dodge beers full beer fans being thrown at me. So
• 43:38
  Speaker 5: I saw zero horses ten straight years. I was just
• 43:41
  Speaker 5: in the middle of the infield. So like, it depends
• 43:43
  Speaker 5: on where you sit, but yeah, I think it's something
• 43:45
  Speaker 5: that you gotta do at least once.
• 43:47
  Speaker 6: So this is the last the plug that I'll make
• 43:49
  Speaker 6: for Saratoga and Brandon to kind of your point. And
• 43:52
  Speaker 6: this is why I think that Saratoga is the best
• 43:54
  Speaker 6: track in I would argue the world, and definitely the
• 43:57
  Speaker 6: most unique because Saratoga, yes, you have the actual physical
• 44:02
  Speaker 6: track and you have the grandstands, but behind the track,
• 44:05
  Speaker 6: you have this whole area that's like picnic tables. There's
• 44:09
  Speaker 6: live music, there's TVs there, so you can watch the
• 44:11
  Speaker 6: races right from those TVs, but you're outside. You can
• 44:15
  Speaker 6: be a horse racing fan. You don't have to be
• 44:17
  Speaker 6: a horse racing fan, like it's just a it's it's
• 44:20
  Speaker 6: like a communal event. So if you're going to go
• 44:23
  Speaker 6: to a horse race, like, yes, I think that everybody
• 44:26
  Speaker 6: should if they can experience the derby. Like, if you're
• 44:29
  Speaker 6: someone that loves like live sporting events, you should absolutely
• 44:32
  Speaker 6: go and experience the Derby. If you want to see
• 44:35
  Speaker 6: what the best track is and just get the full
• 44:38
  Speaker 6: track experience, go to Saratoga in the summer. I don't
• 44:41
  Speaker 6: think there's.
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: Anything like it, like horse racing would stock is what
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: it sounds like to me.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: It is time to plant our flag presented by Draft
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: Skings on the Kentucky Derby.
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: And set up.
• 44:56
  Speaker 5: I'm trying to plant my flag here.
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: Okay, you're really planning your flag and that we're each
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: gonna pick our favorite bet. I'm thinking outright winners here, guys,
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: let's just go for the jugular.
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: Mike will start with you. You're our guest.
• 45:11
  Speaker 4: Thank you.
• 45:12
  Speaker 6: I am going to number nine.
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: The Puma.
• 45:15
  Speaker 6: He's another horse that is coming out of the Florida
• 45:18
  Speaker 6: Florida Derby. He finished second in that race, just by
• 45:20
  Speaker 6: a nose, and interestingly enough, his trainer, Gustavo Delgado won
• 45:26
  Speaker 6: this race a couple of years back with the horse Mage.
• 45:29
  Speaker 6: Mage was also a horse that came out of the
• 45:31
  Speaker 6: Florida Derby who didn't win the Kentucky Derby. So a
• 45:34
  Speaker 6: very similar pattern and the Puma ten to one on
• 45:38
  Speaker 6: the morning line when I last looked, was definitely taking
• 45:42
  Speaker 6: some of the early money for sure, and so it
• 45:43
  Speaker 6: was already bet down below that ten to one, but
• 45:46
  Speaker 6: again stuck. You mentioned it earlier. I don't think that
• 45:49
  Speaker 6: there's like a clear cut favorite in the.
• 45:51
  Speaker 5: Field this year.
• 45:51
  Speaker 6: So no matter where you go, you're gonna get a
• 45:53
  Speaker 6: pretty square price.
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: Kendra, your turn to sell us on right to party
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: just every single year, go with the name that I
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: like the most.
• 46:04
  Speaker 4: I am strictly vibes. I'm terrified of horses.
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: This is where I'm at stucking back to you.
• 46:12
  Speaker 6: All right.
• 46:12
  Speaker 5: Well, we talked earlier about how I've never won an
• 46:17
  Speaker 5: outright I'm over I think twenty one at the derby,
• 46:21
  Speaker 5: And we also talked earlier about removing some horses from
• 46:25
  Speaker 5: consideration for your exotics. Well, I'll give you two for once,
• 46:28
  Speaker 5: so I'll give you my pick to win end on
• 46:31
  Speaker 5: the same same token, you can remove this from your exotics.
• 46:34
  Speaker 5: Because when I say I haven't won, I don't even
• 46:37
  Speaker 5: hear my horse's name. When I bet them to win,
• 46:39
  Speaker 5: They're out of it from the beginning. They never get
• 46:41
  Speaker 5: mentioned once. They're not even close. I'm stubborn. Too many
• 46:45
  Speaker 5: people I know have told me Chief Wallaby, Mike even
• 46:48
  Speaker 5: Blessed Earl. This is I kind of I like him,
• 46:50
  Speaker 5: so the wise guy horse and my horse is due,
• 46:55
  Speaker 5: but really he's going to finish probably dead last. So
• 46:58
  Speaker 5: I'm stubborn and going quality.
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: Chief Wallaby, the the sharp horse that we will see
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: at the back of the pack.
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Commandment. That'll test it one four
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: straight hot at the right time. I've been to the
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: Gulf Stream in the state of Florida.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: I've watched horse racing from that track the only time
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: I've been to a live horse race of any variety,
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: sentimental sharp action here on Commandment and any feedback. Mike,
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: who's whose other bet other than yours? Do you like
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: the best out of this?
• 47:33
  Speaker 6: I mean, look, you just mentioned Commandment. I think that
• 47:35
  Speaker 6: Commandment stands a big chance in here. Like you said,
• 47:38
  Speaker 6: he's rattled off four straight wins.
• 47:41
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 47:41
  Speaker 6: You know, Brad Cox, top trainer. The interesting thing about
• 47:44
  Speaker 6: Commandment read into this what you will. In five starts,
• 47:48
  Speaker 6: he's been ridden by three different jockeys, and none of
• 47:51
  Speaker 6: those jockeys are the jockey that will be riding him
• 47:54
  Speaker 6: into Kentucky Derby. Take that for what it is, you know,
• 47:57
  Speaker 6: I would say it be Mike, I get versatil you
• 48:00
  Speaker 6: with versatility fair enough, you know the one the last
• 48:05
  Speaker 6: comment that I'll make about it about just the race
• 48:07
  Speaker 6: in general. You know we talked about and Kender brought
• 48:10
  Speaker 6: it up earlier. These horses shipping in. If you're looking
• 48:13
  Speaker 6: for a little bit of a longer shot and one
• 48:15
  Speaker 6: of these horses shipping in, I would look to number
• 48:18
  Speaker 6: seven Dan and Bourbon twenty to one on the morning
• 48:21
  Speaker 6: line coming in from Japan. Has run a mile in
• 48:25
  Speaker 6: three sixteenths, so just one sixteenth shy of what the
• 48:30
  Speaker 6: Kentucky Derby's distance is. And the horse was bred in
• 48:34
  Speaker 6: Kentucky and has lineage of horses that you know, American
• 48:38
  Speaker 6: horse players know very well, and so bread for the distance.
• 48:42
  Speaker 6: So looking for, you know, an interesting horse that maybe
• 48:46
  Speaker 6: not well as well known. Number seven Dan and Bourbon.
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: A recap on our draft kings plant the flag picks
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: for the Kentucky Derby. Mike likes the Puma at ten
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: to one. He's the horse racing expert. By the way,
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: you should probably listen to him. Kendra has a right
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: to party at thirty to one. I'm on commandment six
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: to one and Stucky has chief. While it'll be the
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: sharp Horse at eight to one. Mike, thanks so much
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: for hanging out with us and getting us all set
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: and ready for a very fun sporting event this weekend,
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: and congratulations on your horses will be cheering for him.
• 49:21
  Speaker 6: Thanks guys, appreciate the time.
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: That'll do it for today's episode of special Thanks to
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: our producers Gifford Gold and David Payne, Stats Hound to
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams. You gotta go check out the Kentucky Derby
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: Primer if you want to get set and ready for
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: the race like we are. The Favorites will return next
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: week and as always, you can catch it right here
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: on the Action Network YouTube page. We'll see you next
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: time on the Favorites presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
• 49:56
  Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble response.
• 50:00
  Speaker 6: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
• 50:03
  Speaker 6: help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred
• 50:06
  Speaker 6: Gambler