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Transcript

Felix Prehn - It's Over: Prepare for a NEW Stock Market + Stock Market News 16 June 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix and Winston here and welcome to this morning's live stream.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: And yes, I do believe the market has changed very, very significantly as I pour myself some Gak juice, our fruit growing sponsor.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: That's a joke, of course, but there are reasons for this and I want to walk you through those.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: The first is that there are four massive sellers who are literally about to sell into this market.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: So I'm not bullish on the whole market, but I am bullish on a few sectors and I'll tell you exactly what those sectors are.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: I'll show you precisely what the tickers are and everything else.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: I also want to talk about big tech, because there's some big opportunities in there for some of you, and then we'll do a big Q&A on your favorite tech stocks, or favorite stocks generally speaking.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: If that sounds good to you, let me know by smashing the you know what or putting a one in the chat down below.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: So that's what we're going to walk through here, with Winston's help the four massive sellers massives sellers they're, from the hood, apparently massives sellers.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Can we get a thicker pen?
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: And yes, I say I'm not buying everything.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: I'm careful and cautious.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Right now.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: We talk about big tech there's some big opportunities in there as well and then we look at your favorite stocks.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: If that sounds something that's good to you, smash the.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: You know what, some of you buying Zim, hoping to retire by by wednesday.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Well, good luck with that one.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Now there is a cat on the loose in here somewhere in the background.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you can see him.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: There he is.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: This is one of winston's friends, you see, um, he brought him in.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: His name is albert and he is naughty, very, very naughty, but he likes to cuddle winston.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: So cats are now officially living in this, uh, space of mine, uh, which is going to be insanely distracting, but we'll have to put up with it.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: So anyway, let's get straight into it.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: I'll start to show you what the heck's going on there.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: And, by the way, I am not a Middle East war expert.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: I know everybody else seems to be today, but I'm not one of those.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: So my goal here is to just show you what actually matters, just to give you a bit of a geography lesson.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: I understand that Americans don't know where anything is outside the United States, just like we don't know where any of your states are.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: So it just sort of works both ways.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Education systems are really pretty narrow-minded, right.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: But just to give you an idea, what actually matters is this is Iran, right.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: The fifth US fleet is sort of just below it, and there is a little thing here called the Strait of Hormuz, and the Strait of Hormuz is where a third of the world's oil runs through, something like that.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: So if you want a bit of a, this is a bit of a bit of a better map of that.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: So basically, every single oil tanker that leaves the Saudis and so on, has to go in Iraq and Kuwait and everyone they have to basically go through here.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: So there is this tiny little bit of land area here.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: That's international waters, and the Iranians are basically you can smell their breath.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Hummus is apparently what you smell.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: So what does it all matter?
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: Well, ok, there is a couple of scenarios here, and this is from Deutsche Bank.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: I know, I know, I know we should probably just abandon the data at that point.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: But they have some smart people.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: They're basically saying look, if Iranian exports get reduced by 50%, the oil price goes to $74.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Iranian exports just go to zero.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: We still have $74.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Oil pops up a little bit of $77.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: Not really a big deal.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: But if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for two months, as in, iranians are shooting at ships that are going through there, then in Q3, we're going to have a $124 oil price.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: So that's the worst case scenario, right, it's possible.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: We don't know if it's true or if it's not, if it's going to happen or we don't, but it's possible.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: So I just want to give you a little bit of a data range here of where we are at, and then I can tell you in a second why that actually matters and how we could potentially make money from that.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: But a $124 oil price will impact inflation.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: It'll impact the margins of a lot of companies, because oil isn't just oil, it's an energy source, but it's also plastics and there's a lot of derivative products that come out of the oil world.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Right, been there.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Great diving, really Great diving on that side.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: I thought people go diving in the Red Sea.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: That's normally what I hear.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: People normally dive in the Red Sea, which is apparently amazing.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: My coach keeps telling me to go.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: He's in Israel Not getting that much sleep, but it is what it is.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: So bear that in mind.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Information we're going to come back to that, but what I really want to walk you through is the four sellers right now, which means we need to be a little bit more cautious, a little bit more careful sellers right now, which means we need to be a little bit more cautious, a little bit more careful.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Except with smashing the like button, you can do that without any caution.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Nothing bad will happen there, says Winston.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: I can only see paws.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Now what happened to Winston?
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Literally only see paws.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: So retail, you lot, have apparently been selling stocks these last three weeks.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Very, very naughty, very naughty.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: We don't like that.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: We don't like you selling, because you guys have been buying the dip like mad.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: So every time there's a dip, retail comes in and sort of saves our bacon.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: And if we don't have that because people are getting a little bit shaken out or just run out of money maybe then that might not be a good thing.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: So it's something to watch out for and I'll keep you up to date with that.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: But it's been a big, big, big buyer of stocks Insiders, corporate insiders.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: You know your friendly CEO, you know the guys who are really underpaid, all of those guys.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: They have been well, we're at sort of the lowest point of insider.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Well, they're dumping stocks at the fastest pace since November.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: That's one way of summarizing it, which sounds a little bit more exciting, doesn't it?
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: But yes, there's been quite a bit of selling Zuck and all that lot, and that's something to Again, it's selling pressure and it also creates some negative sentiment.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Buybacks Remember I told you when the buyback window opened and we were going to get all this $6 billion a day, or something like that, off buying.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Well, right now, right here, right now we are here.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: You can't see that, can you?
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: Yellow pen, maybe we're here, which means the volume of buying is going to decline over the next couple of weeks as we head into July and then it's going to bottom out and then it's going to rally back into August.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: So we're in a period where, again, we're not getting that full buying of buybacks from companies buying their own shares that we've had the last couple of weeks.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Does that make some sense to you?
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: If that gives you some information that might be valuable, put a V in the chat so I can see that this is landing for you.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'm seeing some, some, some v's there.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Appreciate that.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Matt george and scott george, you're number two today on the v.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: You're normally faster than that as standards are slipping in george walker's home.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: And here is another one pension funds, right.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: So when the market's doing badly, pension funds help us because they buy stocks.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: If the market's doing well, pensions to funds are sellers.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: And just to explain why that happens, if you're a pension fund and say you're one of the good old fashioned ones, then you might have 40% of your money in bonds and you might have, say, 60% of your money in stocks.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, it doesn't have to be that, but that's sort of the old allocation, right.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: So what happens when your stocks go up 10%?
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Well, you've now got 66% of your money in stocks.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: So what do you have to do?
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: You have to sell stocks, right, to go back to your allocation, because that's what they do.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: So every quarter those guys rebalance and we're expecting one of the bigliest sales of pension funds or stocks that we've had in the history of this lovely chart.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: I don't know what happened pre-2017, no idea but at least it's one of the bigger events.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: So you know, it's definitely one of the bigger ones because we've had a big, beautiful stock market, right, a Trump market, as Trump claims.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's been.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: It's bad, it's still a Biden market.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Bad days, still Biden days.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Good days, trump days, and I find it very amusing how I get attacked every single day for being apparently pro-Trump or against Trump or taking the piss out of Trump or something like that.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: It's very funny really.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: People have very strong opinions on politics.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: It's really easy to spike people.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: I should just make political videos and see if I can needle you lot for fun.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: So what to buy?
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: Well, first of all, you need to.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: First of all, you need to very clearly find yourself a golden retriever and ask him, or even a cat where's, where is the cat?
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Albert?
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Albert worries me when I can't see him.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: He is rather naughty, so you'll probably pop up again.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: What to buy.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: So there are the way I look at the market, and this is not a new thing, but I think it works better and better and better in markets like this.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: It actually works always pretty well.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: But the market.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: So you have the stock market, right, and what is it made of?
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: The market's made out of tech stocks and you know utilities defense.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: You know lots of stuff right.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: There are lots of sectors right there.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: There are loads of them, depending on how fine you want to slice it, and some of them go up and some of them go down and that they do that with a very, very predictable pattern and all you need to do is actually understand that pattern and then it really works.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: You don't do politics, you do stocks.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Well, I try, you see, but it sort of overlaps occasionally so you can't really avoid the thing altogether.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: And then you say something or I make a flippant remark and then somebody thinks I'm a communist occasionally, I'm a Nazi occasionally remark, and then somebody you know thinks I'm a communist Occasionally, I'm a Nazi Occasionally.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: I don't know what, it doesn't really matter that much to me.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Honestly, this is really ultimately all about making money.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Okay, I can see the cat again, the cat which is what we call him Albert.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: What are you doing?
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Where are you going?
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Should you be all around here?
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Everywhere he's exploring the world.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: So, without blocking the chart too much, I'm going to turn him back off.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: This is one of the sectors I'm bullish on US aerospace and defense, and there is an ETF for this.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: There's an ETF for everything, because that way you can click, buy once and you can pay somebody like iShares, is that BlackRock Forever?
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: And they really like that.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: They're like brilliant, got us money now, it's now ours.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: But yeah, this is very bullish and it's been bullish for a while and we've been buying defense stocks for a while, but I think it continues.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: So we had that little bit of a mini dip here and now we seem to be going back up again pre-market, but looking up quite nicely.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: So I am buying stocks in that sector.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Now you could just buy the sector.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: I think you probably do all right, but I think you could do better by doing individual stocks.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: But if you just start out with actually doing sectors and understanding why and why is this a buy?
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Well, it's been a buy for how long.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: Well, it's been a buy for how long.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: Who here has watched my masterclass?
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Put an M in the chat, if you have, and you can see where this was a buy.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: That was where it was a buy.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: And then we get little dips, and that's nice.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: And we get little dips and that's nice.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: And I think it's going to keep going up and up, and up, and up, and up and up and probably up some more.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: And if you want to learn what those exact entry points are and then you can also look in the sector and you can find the best stock within that sector, then you might be able to identify some really, really fantastic setups that are so good that you might want to go and kiss a cat, so I'd encourage you to do that.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: How do you do that?
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Well, there's actually a link at the bottom of the screen which is down there somewhere felixfriendsorg.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Slash, get free and that'll take you 15 minutes of your life.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: We've already done 15 minutes here, so it'll be less painful than this and you will actually just get and understand the simple three rules of simply where to buy, where, when, what, and then, most importantly, where to sell.