Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Banker Confronts: Jason Simpkins Latest Defense Stock (Better Than Palantir?) + Stock Market News 03 September 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Banker Confronts: Jason Simpkins Latest Defense Stock (Better Than Palantir?) + Stock Market News 03 September 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: When an analyst claims that a stock is as good as buying Palantir at $8 today.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Well, I pay attention, as does Rose and Winston back there, so I'm going to break this down for you here.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Who's the analyst?
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: The chap called Jason Simpkins.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: He actually does a pretty good job 86% success rate you don't see that all that often and he has made a bet on a small stock called Mercury System, ticker symbol MRCY.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: I'm not holding you hostage.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: If you're wondering who I am and who the furry beings are, my name is Felix Preen.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: I used to be an investor and banker.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: I've now helped over 20,000 people so far become better investors, and today we're going to talk about the bull case for Mercury Systems.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: We're not going to run out and blindly buy it.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: But the curious thing with this is that this actually was on my shopping list a few weeks back and that's why I was like OK, let's look at this again.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: What do they do?
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: It's a tech company that develops secure, mission critical technologies for defense, basically Components and integrated systems.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you, anything supports critical decision-making in time-sensitive situations.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: That's the kind of jibber that their website says.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: But it's a defense company space, aerospace, rugged, reliable, secure products.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: That's sort of the way I would describe this.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: And, of course, before you go out there and you want to click on something, this isn't financial advice Do your own homework and consider risks and learn how to be a smarter, you know timer, because that's ultimately what this is all about.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: And before you think this must be some loony stock, well, actually the financial health of this company is pretty decent Good cash flow, reasonably profitable, not growing that quickly, but not particularly expensive either.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: It's a reasonable business to look at and in the last quarter they brought in like $340 million or something, showing pretty decent demand, at least according to Mercury, and they have a backlog now of orders of $1.4 billion, which, of course, gives us predictability into the future.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: So very solid revenue growth, significant beat over expectations, which is also why the stock chart popped up on that particular day.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, look at that chart in just a bit more of a moment.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Earnings that's really what it's all about ultimately, right.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: If you click here in trade vision on the little earnings there, it tells you that earnings increased to 100% and we beat market estimates by 176%, which is pretty good stuff, if you're asking me.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: So they're doing something much, much better than people were expecting, and therefore analysts like this chap that we're just looking at here are upgrading this, and they're falling over themselves like sheep to upgrade it, which is what analysts typically do.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: But is there more to this story?
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: Well, funnily enough, this stock popped onto my watch list on 29th of June.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: It's a while back.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: See MRCI here, my buy point above 54.50.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: And if you ask my students, they can confirm that this is a real.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: It's a real document.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: I put this out every Sunday.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: So that was that green line here.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: That was our entry point.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Somewhere around there.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Where was it exactly?
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: 5450.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: So we wanted it to break out, and war boy, break out the did.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: So does that mean we would have bought down here?
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: No, I like to be honest and transparent with you and that wouldn't have been the case.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: No, I like to be honest and transparent with you and that wouldn't have been the case.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: I'm going to have to move the cat off the mouse pad.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: This is baby Rose, by the way, who's the softest little thing I've ever come across.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: We had kittens by accident.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: They have been dissected since, if you're worried about that sort of thing.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: So we wanted to buy it above here, but in reality stepping onto the keyboard.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Our buy would have triggered at the bottom of that day, at the opening of that day, which is pretty much where I put that arrow, so you know you'd still be up something like 15%.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Does that mean it's all over?
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: It's too late?
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: I can see people write that in the comments down below right.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: Well, the loons didn't make it beyond this point.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Zoom out a little bit and you'll see that this stock has actually come from a much higher point.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: It doesn't mean it has to go back up there, but it's a recovery play still.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: So it is still moderately early and I think, the uranium play.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: People are still not understanding just how much energy AI data centers are going to use, because, well, I don't know about you, but I'm running pretty much my life on AI right now, and businesses will be doing the same thing, but most of them aren't yet because they don't know what to do, right, so they rely on fuzzy kittens to run their life, which is also a good strategy.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: So what are we seeing here?
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: What are we seeing here in terms of entry point?
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Well, we're seeing some highs here and some highs here, and you can see they're more or less in the same kind of zone, right?
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Well, we want to exceed that, so we want to get to about.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Let me delete that.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Zoom in a bit higher.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: What was the high of that day?
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: The high of that day was $69.95.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: And the high of this day, yeah, so $70.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: So I would not buy it here because there's a decent chance it's going to pull back some more.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: It might do this again.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: It might do this for a while, just like it did that over here.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Do you see that?
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: It did it for ages?
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: We don't really want to be in these zones.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Why Opportunity cost?
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: We can put our money to work somewhere better.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: But what I do like is, if this breaks out above greater than $70.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Do you know what the greater than symbol means?
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: I think people find it very confusing, right?
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to write above and again, I'm not telling you to do that, I'm just making a note for myself here.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: That's where I'd be looking at it above $70.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: So why the heck do we want to buy things at a higher price?
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Well, if you really want to understand that it's all about following the money shifts, I'm actually going to do something even better for you.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: We did once, a few months ago, a portfolio review and we did that for about 100 people in the end and they got well the most happy people I've ever met who are very, very ecstatic that we actually gave them some real life feedback on their portfolios.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: So I want to do that again for you, because if you watch this video and you make it this far, you've actually identified yourself as somebody who wants more, more knowledge, more insight.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: You probably want to know if what you're holding is the right thing right now.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Are you in the right sectors?
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: You have the strategies to do that and you're probably open to some input and some information, because otherwise you wouldn't have made it this far through a video.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: So what I'm going to do for you is I'm going to open up another 50 slots where we will hop on a call with you, we'll do a portfolio review with you and we walk you through some of the things you could be learning and you could be doing better.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: So if you want to do that, go to felixfrontsorg slash portfolio.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: That's completely free of charge, by the way, and let me know how it goes, and I look forward to you learning and I look forward to you getting better and better and better, which is ultimately our goal.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: And, by the way, if you're wondering if anybody else paid attention to our little breakout entry price here, have a look at the volume down there.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: That means everybody else watches the same thing.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: So if this thing breaks out again, there's a fairly decent likelihood that everybody else is going to be watching the same thing again.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: It doesn't have to happen.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: There are no guarantees in life, but there is a decent likelihood of that being the case.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: So I thank you for watching.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: I look forward to seeing some of you guys on those portfolio calls.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: They're with my team who are tremendous and kind and caring and knowledgeable, and I wish you all the best.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: Take care, felix here.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: And 10 days ago I put out a video on a uranium stock called UUU when this dash dotted line here kicked in and that stock, which came out that day, is now up some 35%, but I actually gave that stock to my students a little earlier.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Here it is on the screen.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: On 15th of June, uuuu do additional buying above 590%.