Latest / Toadstool Sports / Thursday BEST BETS | The Slump Won't End | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 7/2/26

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Thursday BEST BETS | The Slump Won't End | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 7/2/26 · Toadstool Sports

0:17
Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm.
0:19
Speaker 2: Man, a hole in your chase.
0:21
Speaker 1: Black coffee on the felt man, you look like a mess.
0:26
Speaker 3: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
0:29
Speaker 1: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
0:32
Speaker 1: this man.
0:34
Speaker 3: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
0:38
Speaker 3: Your name steal mean something on somebody for show? Put
0:42
Speaker 3: the glass down, baby, look at me?
0:46
Speaker 2: Nine.
0:50
Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on nothing nice?
0:56
Speaker 2: No, hold on, hold on me, but it don't get
1:12
Speaker 2: the crown. Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
1:19
Speaker 4: Now, what's up? Everybody? It's towed back with your toad
1:30
Speaker 4: stool Sports July second, Thursday, whatever. Like I said, do
1:36
Speaker 4: not listen to me. We cannot keep running at a
1:38
Speaker 4: sixty seven percent rate. It's completely unsustainable in this business.
1:43
Speaker 4: We're on a massive downswing. I told you at the
1:47
Speaker 4: start of the month. Does not matter. It is completely arbitrary.
1:50
Speaker 4: I could not have been more wrong with both plays yesterday.
1:54
Speaker 4: Don't listen to me, ever, Do not put money on
1:57
Speaker 4: these games that I'm giving out today. Don't do it again.
2:01
Speaker 4: If you're gonna win in this business, you're gonna be
2:04
Speaker 4: running like fifty five, fifty six percent. Maybe like that's
2:07
Speaker 4: probably the best you're gonna do. And I'm still over
2:10
Speaker 4: this last eighty eight days. One of my at like
2:13
Speaker 4: sixty low sixties percent something like that. You can't do that.
2:18
Speaker 4: It's not sustainable. So I knew I was gonna take
2:21
Speaker 4: a huge, huge down swing here. It is. It's so
2:24
Speaker 4: fucking fun whatever baseball. There are like nine baseball games today.
2:31
Speaker 4: It's a Thursday, so there's less to do. I'm gonna
2:34
Speaker 4: give up two more baseball plays. I'm sure they're gonna win.
2:37
Speaker 4: I'm sure they're awesome. First game up as early twelve
2:41
Speaker 4: thirty five, Eastern Pittsburgh and Philadelphia finishing I think a
2:45
Speaker 4: four game series here. Philadelphia has won two of the
2:48
Speaker 4: three games so far, including winning yesterday and a game
2:52
Speaker 4: where what do we even say about that game? Paul
2:56
Speaker 4: Skein's got lit up in the game? Is that something
2:59
Speaker 4: you want to bet on? Usually? Oh yeah, I'm gonna
3:01
Speaker 4: assume that Schemes is just gonna get drilled in this game. Yeah, okay, yeah, whatever.
3:08
Speaker 4: So that was one of the losers on the show
3:09
Speaker 4: with the under in that game. I know there were
3:12
Speaker 4: some professionals that liked Pittsburgh in the game. Yeah, that
3:15
Speaker 4: didn't happen this game. I don't even know what I
3:18
Speaker 4: would do with this game. This game is a disaster.
3:21
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh should have a little bit of motivation at least
3:24
Speaker 4: because they are trying to not lose the series three
3:27
Speaker 4: to one. They have a bad bullpen, though they use
3:30
Speaker 4: three relieved pitchers yesterday Philadelphia used four. Pittsburgh is ranked
3:35
Speaker 4: twenty second in bullpen. I do this by whip. Philadelphia
3:39
Speaker 4: is better at fourteenth, more of a mediocre bullpen. Pittsburgh
3:44
Speaker 4: is the better offense. They're ranked second in offense. Philadelphia
3:48
Speaker 4: is where are they? Twentieth? Not good? Tied with Detroit.
3:53
Speaker 4: Jared Jones is pitching for Pittsburgh. He is the more
3:57
Speaker 4: proven starter here, but he is also not proven that
4:01
Speaker 4: he's been able to come back from injury here. This
4:03
Speaker 4: is a great status here. By the way, I don't
4:07
Speaker 4: know who's doing this at ESPN. Somebody updated his status
4:11
Speaker 4: twenty three minutes ago with no dude, Oh my god,
4:17
Speaker 4: I kind of love that. Yeah, no is right because
4:21
Speaker 4: Jones as a five point seven to six ERA one
4:24
Speaker 4: point four to four whip. I guess they put him
4:26
Speaker 4: on a short d L stint. I don't know what's
4:29
Speaker 4: going on here. He is not pitched well after missing
4:32
Speaker 4: all of last year. He was good in his one
4:36
Speaker 4: complete season in the majors, but he is not pitching
4:39
Speaker 4: well right now. He is better on the road four
4:41
Speaker 4: point five roady ra this year. You can make the
4:45
Speaker 4: argument he's been a little bit better recently, but he's
4:47
Speaker 4: still not going deep into these games. He's maybe starting
4:51
Speaker 4: to get into form a little bit here, but I
4:54
Speaker 4: don't really want to bank on that. He still has
4:56
Speaker 4: a high hit rate. His walk rate is not horrible,
5:00
Speaker 4: strike out rate is fairly good. I mean it's one
5:03
Speaker 4: per one inning. That's pretty good. Numbers against Philly, though
5:06
Speaker 4: not good. Twenty at bats against them, three hundred batting
5:09
Speaker 4: average nine hundred ohps. That's not good. Philadelphia is going
5:14
Speaker 4: with a pretty much an unknown here in Alan ron Hell.
5:19
Speaker 4: I have no idea who this guy really is. He
5:21
Speaker 4: has not made a start yet. So what I would
5:24
Speaker 4: say is, if you're gonna play this game, I would
5:26
Speaker 4: pick Jones must start, but avoid picking a Philly starter
5:30
Speaker 4: here because they might pick somebody else, Like this guy
5:33
Speaker 4: has not made a start yet, so they've been putting
5:35
Speaker 4: an opener in front of him. He has made like
5:37
Speaker 4: a starter's workload though pretty much three times, and he
5:41
Speaker 4: actually hasn't been that bad. Four point five VR, one
5:45
Speaker 4: point one seven whip wasn't good in his last outing, though.
5:49
Speaker 4: His first bad outing was against the Mets, which is
5:52
Speaker 4: not a good sign. He hasn't pitched at home yet
5:55
Speaker 4: this year, so I don't know what we should think
5:57
Speaker 4: about that. But giving up four runs of or any
6:00
Speaker 4: of the Mets does not impress me. Although he does
6:03
Speaker 4: have a hit rate that's right at one per ending,
6:05
Speaker 4: his walk rates low, his strikeout rate is actually high.
6:09
Speaker 4: I wouldn't bank on him. Pittsburgh has seen him a
6:12
Speaker 4: little bit. They have five guys who've seen him seven
6:14
Speaker 4: at bats two eighty six average, eleven forty three oh
6:18
Speaker 4: ps sorry one zero strikeout walk ratio. Whatever. Yeah, so
6:26
Speaker 4: I don't know this game. To me, it seems like
6:28
Speaker 4: an over. I mean, that's probably what I would do here.
6:31
Speaker 4: I just don't trust the pitching here. Fifty four percent
6:34
Speaker 4: of tickets, sixty four percent of the cash on the over.
6:36
Speaker 4: The total is high at ten and a half in
6:39
Speaker 4: a Philly game, that's pretty high. You know, Philly has
6:44
Speaker 4: been hitting better at home, So yeah, I think over
6:48
Speaker 4: is probably the better way to play that game. I'm
6:50
Speaker 4: not gonna do it. Minus one thirty is the price
6:53
Speaker 4: on Philly. They're actually favored with Ron Hell on the
6:57
Speaker 4: mound seventy eight percent of time. Think it's fifty four
7:00
Speaker 4: percent of the cash on Philly. So the money is
7:03
Speaker 4: fading Philadelphia, the money's back in Pittsburgh. I mean, I
7:07
Speaker 4: could see the argument for it. It's kind of a
7:09
Speaker 4: motivational thing, and maybe you just go with the guy
7:12
Speaker 4: that's the better starter, well, the more proven starter. But
7:16
Speaker 4: Jones has not come back yet into forms, so that
7:20
Speaker 4: would be a big concern for me. If you're gonna
7:22
Speaker 4: play Pittsburgh, I think you should do it in the
7:24
Speaker 4: first five because their bullpend is bad. I don't think
7:29
Speaker 4: I have anything else on that game, but whatever you do,
7:31
Speaker 4: I would say pick Jones must start, but pick Action
7:35
Speaker 4: essentially on the Philly side, because I think Philly could
7:37
Speaker 4: put an opener in front of Ron Hell and then
7:40
Speaker 4: he'll pitch after that. I think that's probably the most
7:43
Speaker 4: likely thing that's gonna happen, although maybe he will start,
7:46
Speaker 4: but either way, that's a pretty similar handicap. First, we
7:50
Speaker 4: don't really have any evidence as far as what he
7:52
Speaker 4: does as an actual starter because it hasn't happened yet,
7:55
Speaker 4: So does he get up more for it? I don't
7:57
Speaker 4: know what's up everybody, Garrett mac No, the Thursday slate
8:02
Speaker 4: is smaller here. Yes, thank you, Gerald. It can't get worse.
8:08
Speaker 4: US first half money line. I didn't I would not
8:11
Speaker 4: have really liked that. I don't know. I mean, the
8:15
Speaker 4: US scored after they got a red card, So after
8:19
Speaker 4: the red card, dude, my recommendation on that game was
8:22
Speaker 4: to play both teams to score after the US got
8:25
Speaker 4: the red card. I was like, sure that Bosnia was
8:28
Speaker 4: gonna find the net somewhere with a man advantage, and
8:31
Speaker 4: they never did. So, I don't know. I think you
8:33
Speaker 4: kind of got screwed if you did what I recommended.
8:37
Speaker 4: Spain Portugal parlay on the three way. I don't like that.
8:40
Speaker 4: I do not like that. I don't like Portugal. I
8:44
Speaker 4: really don't. All right, Uh yeah, I don't. I don't know.
8:49
Speaker 4: I mean, yes, I'm yes, we were all Italian here.
8:52
Speaker 4: I don't know whatever. All right, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, I'm gonna
8:58
Speaker 4: give out a play on this one. It's another one
9:00
Speaker 4: that's just too obvious. But you know me, I'm a
9:03
Speaker 4: master of the obvious, and it's worked out so well
9:05
Speaker 4: for me recently. Let's do it again. This game is
9:14
Speaker 4: gonna be an under in the first five, and I
9:16
Speaker 4: know it's a three and a half. It's a low number,
9:19
Speaker 4: but we have elite pitching here in this game, so
9:23
Speaker 4: I think we get this done. It's at minus one eighteen.
9:26
Speaker 4: I didn't really mind the price on this. You could
9:28
Speaker 4: go full game on this, but obviously my concern is
9:31
Speaker 4: Cincinnati's bullpen is a nightmare and I could see Cincinnati's
9:35
Speaker 4: bullpen just alone just ruining the entire thing. So I
9:39
Speaker 4: don't want to do that. Even though if you do
9:41
Speaker 4: play the full game, you could get under seven, which
9:44
Speaker 4: is a key number here, I still wouldn't disagree with that,
9:47
Speaker 4: but I'm gonna go first five on this. Cincinnati's bullpen blows,
9:51
Speaker 4: so get them out of here. Although these starting pitchers
9:55
Speaker 4: could get you deeper into the game, so you might
9:57
Speaker 4: be able to dodge the bullpen a little bit, but
9:59
Speaker 4: I still want to do that. Plus, when you go
10:01
Speaker 4: first five, you're getting the starters like before they completely
10:05
Speaker 4: tire out to so there is that argument for it.
10:10
Speaker 4: Cincinnati used four relief pitchers yesterday. I do not want
10:12
Speaker 4: to trust their pen here. Milwaukee did use their closer
10:16
Speaker 4: McGill yesterday. They use three relief pitchers. Milwaukee is the
10:22
Speaker 4: better bullpen, like I said, they ranked twelve, but I
10:24
Speaker 4: think they might be better than that. The Reds are bad.
10:27
Speaker 4: They're like a bottom handful of bullpen's number twenty eight bad.
10:32
Speaker 4: Milwaukee's the better offense. They're back up to ninth in offense,
10:35
Speaker 4: Cincinnati twenty fourth. But I think both pitchers should be
10:38
Speaker 4: able to hold the offenses down in this one. That's
10:41
Speaker 4: what I'm banking on here. Milwaukee also might be distracted
10:44
Speaker 4: here because they've already won three games in the series.
10:47
Speaker 4: So this is one of those spots where Cincinnati's trying
10:50
Speaker 4: to avoid getting swept here Milwaukee, the question is are
10:53
Speaker 4: they going to look ahead? Who do they playing next?
10:56
Speaker 4: Is what you need to know while they play Arizona.
10:58
Speaker 4: I don't really know if that's a look ahead, but maybe,
11:01
Speaker 4: you know, maybe they start looking ahead to the road
11:03
Speaker 4: trip already they've already won the series. I'm not looking
11:06
Speaker 4: at the side though, though. If you do look at
11:09
Speaker 4: the side, I mean, there are some arguments to be
11:12
Speaker 4: made for Cincinnati here. Of course, if you go Cincinnati.
11:15
Speaker 4: I would go first five, obviously because their bullpen is
11:18
Speaker 4: a detriment to you. But if you think it's gonna
11:21
Speaker 4: be a close game between these two stardy pitchers here,
11:23
Speaker 4: Misierowski gets all the recognition right now, Chase Burns doesn't
11:28
Speaker 4: get any of it. So you might be getting some
11:30
Speaker 4: value playing Burns. I mean, Milwaukee's a massive favorite here,
11:34
Speaker 4: and they probably should not be favored this heavily. It's
11:37
Speaker 4: probably less heavy in the first five, but you're still
11:40
Speaker 4: gonna be looking at if you take Cincinnati in the
11:42
Speaker 4: first five plus a half run, you might get some
11:45
Speaker 4: value with that man, because again, these pictures could just
11:48
Speaker 4: duel each other and it could be a tight one
11:50
Speaker 4: through the first five, And that's of course what I'm
11:52
Speaker 4: banking on. But I'm doing it by going with the
11:55
Speaker 4: under here. As far as what these pictures look like. Yeah,
11:59
Speaker 4: Burns again, he just doesn't get the credit that a
12:02
Speaker 4: bunch of these other guys get. I like him. I
12:04
Speaker 4: mean he's got a really good record. I mean record
12:07
Speaker 4: doesn't mean anything really, but e Ra two point three
12:10
Speaker 4: six one point eight whip, but I think his record
12:13
Speaker 4: being that good does mean something. When he's on a
12:16
Speaker 4: bad team, so they win when he's on the mound.
12:20
Speaker 4: Typically we don't need them to win here, but just
12:22
Speaker 4: something of note. But yeah, he's got a good era,
12:25
Speaker 4: good whip is era on the road is a little
12:27
Speaker 4: bit worse two point seven to two, but that's still good.
12:30
Speaker 4: He gave up five runs last time out, but it
12:32
Speaker 4: was at Pittsburgh and he had ten strikeouts and no
12:36
Speaker 4: walks in that outing, so his command was completely on point,
12:39
Speaker 4: So I'm not gonna really knock him for that. And
12:42
Speaker 4: he's still his team won the game. Still, but I
12:45
Speaker 4: think he kind of comes back to form here. I mean,
12:47
Speaker 4: I don't even think he was out of form in
12:49
Speaker 4: that game. I think he just got a little bit unlucky.
12:51
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh is a very good offense at home, better than
12:54
Speaker 4: Milwaukee is Burns over the course of the season. Really
12:58
Speaker 4: low hit rate, low walk right as well, high strikeout rate.
13:01
Speaker 4: I mean, everything looks good. His numbers against Milwaukee, they
13:05
Speaker 4: really haven't seen much of him. They only have five
13:07
Speaker 4: at bats against him. They have no extra base hits,
13:11
Speaker 4: three strikeouts, two walks. They have seven guys who have
13:14
Speaker 4: faced him two hunderd batting average six twenty nine ohps,
13:17
Speaker 4: so Burns can ride some unfamiliarity here too, because Milwaukee
13:21
Speaker 4: hasn't faced him this year, so they're not recently familiar
13:25
Speaker 4: with them. So I think he should do pretty well here.
13:28
Speaker 4: And when they have seen him in the small sample size,
13:30
Speaker 4: they haven't done well. Obviously. It's not going out on
13:33
Speaker 4: a limb to say that. I think mis Zerowski is
13:35
Speaker 4: also going to deliver a good start here. He's still
13:38
Speaker 4: the favorite to win the cy Young right now in
13:40
Speaker 4: the National League. One point four to five RA point
13:43
Speaker 4: seven to seven whip is ridiculous. I mean that's probably unsustainable,
13:47
Speaker 4: but uh yeah, I mean he's going out there and
13:51
Speaker 4: just throwing absolute gas. He's been basically the same home
13:55
Speaker 4: and away, slightly worse at home one point five step
13:58
Speaker 4: of the RA. Oh god, it's horrible. He did walk
14:02
Speaker 4: four guys in his last start against the Cobs, so
14:04
Speaker 4: he was a little wild in that one. But he's
14:07
Speaker 4: still only allowed one run in six innings. I mean
14:10
Speaker 4: he's just been He's still been dominating. I mean, what
14:12
Speaker 4: else there is there to say? He has a really
14:14
Speaker 4: low hit rate, his walk rate is pretty low. If
14:17
Speaker 4: there's any concern with him at all, it's that he's
14:19
Speaker 4: still a little bit wild, but it doesn't even really
14:21
Speaker 4: matter that much that he's not that wild. One one
14:26
Speaker 4: hundred and forty six strikeouts in ninety nine innings, I
14:29
Speaker 4: think is the highest strikeout rate in baseball. Two numbers
14:33
Speaker 4: against the Reds not surprisingly good, although they only have
14:36
Speaker 4: eleven at bats against him, so they're kind of unfamiliar
14:38
Speaker 4: with him too. They got seven hitters who have faced him.
14:41
Speaker 4: They do have some walks six strikeouts, five walks, but
14:44
Speaker 4: that is only equated to a six nineteen OPS. One
14:48
Speaker 4: eighty two batting average is really low, but that OPS
14:51
Speaker 4: is still low. Nzierowski was a little bit wild last year.
14:54
Speaker 4: I believe Cincinnati has not faced him this year, So
14:57
Speaker 4: I think what you have here is two starting pitchers
14:59
Speaker 4: that have gotten even better this year, and the opposing
15:03
Speaker 4: lineups haven't seen them this year. So these lineups haven't
15:06
Speaker 4: even faced these guys when they've been at their best,
15:09
Speaker 4: which I'm saying is right here right now this year.
15:13
Speaker 4: I like this. I think this goes under. I think
15:16
Speaker 4: I think the money was agreeing with me on this.
15:19
Speaker 4: Let me say what was I looking at? Yeah, we
15:23
Speaker 4: have sixty one percent of the tickets on the over
15:26
Speaker 4: and fifty three percent of the cash on the under.
15:28
Speaker 4: I'm kind of surprised the public is on the over,
15:30
Speaker 4: but I mean, I guess, I don't know. With a
15:31
Speaker 4: Reds and Brewers game, you kind of think offense usually
15:35
Speaker 4: not with this pitching matchup. Though, again, yeah, the totals
15:38
Speaker 4: at seven, but yeah, the money appears to be indicating
15:40
Speaker 4: on the under, and it's fading Milwaukee a little bit.
15:43
Speaker 4: Milwaukee's public eighty four percent of the tickets, eighty three
15:47
Speaker 4: percent of the money on them as well, so they're
15:50
Speaker 4: a public side with a little bit less of the
15:52
Speaker 4: money on them. And again, this price and minus two
15:55
Speaker 4: hundred is kind of ridiculous. I know it's because miss
15:57
Speaker 4: Yerowski is on the mound, but that is I think
16:00
Speaker 4: that price is just really really overlooking Burns. So, like
16:04
Speaker 4: I said, I think maybe there is some value with
16:06
Speaker 4: Red's first five in that game too, but I'm going
16:09
Speaker 4: first five under three and a half in that one,
16:12
Speaker 4: which is correlated to that Cy Young burn Burns is
16:18
Speaker 4: not gonna win the Cy Young. He has no chance
16:20
Speaker 4: to win it. Skeens is not looking good for it
16:25
Speaker 4: right now after yesterday, although Skeens has been good, but
16:28
Speaker 4: also Skeens' record is terrible right now because his offense
16:31
Speaker 4: doesn't back him and for whatever, I mean, it's stupid,
16:34
Speaker 4: but the cy Young voting takes that into account, which
16:38
Speaker 4: is stupid. Mizierowski is definitely gonna win it. And if
16:41
Speaker 4: it's not him, I mean, Otani is in the running,
16:44
Speaker 4: even though he hasn't even made as many starts like
16:46
Speaker 4: he didn't he wasn't a full starter again until like
16:49
Speaker 4: a month into the season. But Otani is gonna be
16:52
Speaker 4: probably ahead of Skeens at this win. Christopher Sanchez is
16:56
Speaker 4: one of the front runners as well, So yeah, Burns,
16:59
Speaker 4: I mean, he has no chance. He just doesn't get
17:02
Speaker 4: looked at. And Cincinnati's not a good enough team like
17:05
Speaker 4: Milwaukee is a winning team. Philadelphia is a winning team.
17:09
Speaker 4: So yeah, mis and Otani obviously Dodgers, mis Otani and
17:13
Speaker 4: Sanchez are gonna it's gonna be one of those three.
17:16
Speaker 4: And right now, yeah, mis Zerowski is like the clear
17:19
Speaker 4: front runner. Burns has no chance. Miami and Colorado, uh,
17:25
Speaker 4: this is also a four game series. Colorado lost the
17:28
Speaker 4: first two games won yesterday and the game did go under.
17:32
Speaker 4: I'm kind of surprised a game that went under with
17:36
Speaker 4: Max Meyer pitching, but it was Colorado that actually won
17:38
Speaker 4: the game. That's kind of surprising to me. Like if
17:41
Speaker 4: you would have said, well, Max Meyer is not gonna
17:43
Speaker 4: have his greatest outing here, I would have been like, yeah,
17:46
Speaker 4: that makes it seem like that game is gonna go
17:48
Speaker 4: over and it didn't. But whatever, Miami. You know, Miami
17:54
Speaker 4: probably doesn't want to split the series with Colorado though,
17:57
Speaker 4: so probably both teams get motivated here. Miami probably tries
18:01
Speaker 4: to bounce back after the loss. Colorado used three relief pitchers.
18:05
Speaker 4: Their bullpen is awful, Miami used two. Miami is still
18:09
Speaker 4: ranked second in bullpen. I think they're not quite that good,
18:14
Speaker 4: but they're good. Colorado's ranked twenty seventh. They're a bad bullpen.
18:18
Speaker 4: They're I think they're the third worst bullpen. Of course
18:21
Speaker 4: they get skewed a little bit by pitching in Colorado,
18:24
Speaker 4: but that's where they are. Colorado is ranked fifth in offense,
18:29
Speaker 4: and then what else do we have. Miami is somewhere
18:33
Speaker 4: in the middle of the pack. Miami's fourteenth, so Colorado
18:37
Speaker 4: is the better offense. This starting pitching, though, I mean,
18:40
Speaker 4: this screams over to me. Ryan Gusto is going for
18:44
Speaker 4: the Marlins. I know I tried to fade him not
18:47
Speaker 4: too long ago and it didn't work out. But he's
18:49
Speaker 4: not good. Five point zero six ERA, one point five
18:52
Speaker 4: to five whip is really bad. He's bad on the
18:55
Speaker 4: road seven point two Roadie Ray. I know we're looking
18:58
Speaker 4: at a small sample size here, but he's not good.
19:01
Speaker 4: He allows a lot of fly balls. He allowed a
19:02
Speaker 4: pretty decent amount of home runs last year when he
19:05
Speaker 4: was on Houston. He's giving up way too many hits
19:08
Speaker 4: this year. Strikeout rate is okay, walk rates a little
19:11
Speaker 4: bit high as well. Not a lot to like with
19:13
Speaker 4: him here. I don't think he's gonna do that well
19:15
Speaker 4: in coursefield. Colorado hasn't really seen him, so he does
19:19
Speaker 4: have that advantage. I guess. I think only of two
19:21
Speaker 4: guys who have seen him throw for one with a
19:24
Speaker 4: walk and a strikeout, which is Willie Castro and Julian
19:31
Speaker 4: Not Claude Julien, the former Bruins head coach, and I
19:35
Speaker 4: believe Stanley Cup winning coach bring him back. Yeah. I mean,
19:40
Speaker 4: I don't put much weight into Gusto being unfamiliar to Colorado.
19:44
Speaker 4: I mean, he's not a guy that really fools hitters,
19:46
Speaker 4: so I don't think it matters. Michael Lorenz in his
19:48
Speaker 4: picture for Colorado. He's having a pretty rough season. Things
19:52
Speaker 4: have been rough. Six point eight three ERA, one point
19:55
Speaker 4: seventy nine, whip bad. He's not good in coursefield eight
19:59
Speaker 4: point two home the ra really really bad stuff. Had
20:03
Speaker 4: an okay outing last time out against Minnesota, and you, maybe, well,
20:06
Speaker 4: he's pitching well right now. Man. Three of his last
20:08
Speaker 4: four starts he's given up one or fewer runs. Yeah. True,
20:13
Speaker 4: But in his Minnesota starting only one strikeout. Maybe he
20:17
Speaker 4: just matches up well against the Cobs. I don't know.
20:19
Speaker 4: I'm not ready to say that he's actually in good
20:21
Speaker 4: form right now. He's still giving up a lot of hits,
20:24
Speaker 4: So he's giving up a ton of hits on the season.
20:27
Speaker 4: I think he probably has the highest hit rate in baseball.
20:30
Speaker 4: I mean, it's just a ridiculous amount of hits that
20:32
Speaker 4: he's giving up. His strikeout rates not very high. His
20:35
Speaker 4: walk rate isn't too bad. But when you give up
20:37
Speaker 4: that and he hits, yeah, it doesn't even matter. His
20:41
Speaker 4: fly ball rate is actually not that bad, but he's
20:43
Speaker 4: still allowed of decent amount of home runs here. Doesn't
20:46
Speaker 4: pitch well in course field, numbers against Miami are not
20:49
Speaker 4: particularly good. In eighteen at bats as a small sample,
20:53
Speaker 4: five zero strikeout walk ratio. Again, he doesn't walk guys,
20:56
Speaker 4: but guys just get hits off him two seventy eight
20:59
Speaker 4: average seven seven eight ops. This game, to me, I
21:03
Speaker 4: think it's an over. That's probably what I would do
21:05
Speaker 4: if I was gonna play this. You have to go
21:06
Speaker 4: over a huge total though it's twelve. The money, it
21:10
Speaker 4: looks like the ticket percentages on the under seventy five
21:13
Speaker 4: percent of the tickets but sixty percent of the cash.
21:16
Speaker 4: I mean, could the under really be public? I don't
21:20
Speaker 4: really think so, but the market indicators do seem to
21:22
Speaker 4: be indicating towards the over based on those numbers there. Yeah,
21:28
Speaker 4: I mean that's how I would play this game. If
21:30
Speaker 4: you forced me to play it, I would go over
21:32
Speaker 4: the twelve. I know it's a really high total, but
21:35
Speaker 4: it's Coors Field, and it's some bad pitching here. Seventy
21:39
Speaker 4: one percent of tickets, eighty four percent of the cash
21:41
Speaker 4: on Miami. Miami's favored at about minus one twenty four.
21:46
Speaker 4: I don't really disagree with Miami. I mean, they're the
21:49
Speaker 4: better team. They're in a bounce back spot. Potentially, maybe
21:53
Speaker 4: you could even argue they have the better starter here.
21:56
Speaker 4: I mean, that's pretty sad if that's the case. But
21:58
Speaker 4: they do also have the better bullpen, so yeah, I mean,
22:02
Speaker 4: I think there are more arguments for that but than
22:05
Speaker 4: for the Rockies. But I think over makes more sense there.
22:09
Speaker 4: Chris Sale, I mean, I completely forgot about him. Probably
22:13
Speaker 4: not gonna meet him. I mean, the Braves are and
22:16
Speaker 4: I know the Braves have been winning again recently, but
22:18
Speaker 4: I don't know, man, the Braves have not been playing
22:20
Speaker 4: well recently. I don't know what to tell you about Sale.
22:24
Speaker 4: I mean, I just think it's like, I don't know,
22:26
Speaker 4: he's so far up there in age now. I don't
22:29
Speaker 4: think he's gonna I don't know what the odds are
22:31
Speaker 4: right now, but I think he'll He'll probably be like
22:33
Speaker 4: fifth or something like that. He's not gonna win it.
22:38
Speaker 4: He hasn't been as dominant as some of these other
22:40
Speaker 4: pitchers either. White Sox in Cleveland. This is a new
22:44
Speaker 4: series that's starting. Cleveland is staying at home, so Cleveland
22:47
Speaker 4: does have a travel edge here slightly staying at home.
22:51
Speaker 4: They did win the last game of their Texas series yesterday.
22:55
Speaker 4: White Sox are coming in from Baltimore, so they are
22:58
Speaker 4: having to travel. They did lose, yes. As far as
23:02
Speaker 4: the bullpens, the White Sox bullpen is mediocre. They use
23:06
Speaker 4: four guys yesterday. Cleveland's is a little bit better, but
23:09
Speaker 4: they used four as they use five actually, and they
23:11
Speaker 4: use their better relievers, so that kind of negates Cleveland's
23:14
Speaker 4: slight bullpen edge a bit. Here. Cleveland is ranked nineteenth
23:19
Speaker 4: and bullpenal, though I think they're a little bit better
23:21
Speaker 4: than that. The White Sox are twentieth. I think they
23:23
Speaker 4: might be a little bit better than that too, but
23:26
Speaker 4: I think Cleveland is a slightly better bullpen again, but
23:29
Speaker 4: the usage kind of erases their edge a little bit. There.
23:33
Speaker 4: White Sox are the better offense. They're seventh, tied with
23:35
Speaker 4: the A's. Cleveland has been awful offensively, especially since the injuries.
23:41
Speaker 4: Twenty eighth in offense pretty bad, and they're gonna have
23:44
Speaker 4: to contend with Davis Martin, who is having a good
23:46
Speaker 4: season for the White Sox. Three era one point one
23:49
Speaker 4: to eight whip pretty good. He's not good on the
23:52
Speaker 4: road though, four point sixty seven Roady ra so that's
23:56
Speaker 4: not good. So he is fadable on the road usually
23:58
Speaker 4: want to back him when he's at home. Pitch well
24:02
Speaker 4: in his last road start, though at Detroit. His road start,
24:06
Speaker 4: his road numbers are skewed a little bit because he
24:08
Speaker 4: had a really bad start against the Yankees, and Cleveland,
24:11
Speaker 4: needless to say, is not the Yankees, so he does
24:14
Speaker 4: get a much weaker offense here. He pitch well in
24:17
Speaker 4: his last outing too, at home against Kansas City, but
24:22
Speaker 4: you know there are gonna be some issues with this
24:24
Speaker 4: matchup that I'll show you those numbers in a minute, Martin.
24:27
Speaker 4: He has a pretty decent hit rate here, his walk
24:29
Speaker 4: rate is pretty low, strike out rate is reasonably high
24:32
Speaker 4: as well. He's got good numbers here. You know, he's
24:35
Speaker 4: kind of come from out of nowhere to have a
24:36
Speaker 4: good season here. But as I just alluded to, he
24:41
Speaker 4: does not have good numbers against Cleveland, although they only
24:43
Speaker 4: have six hitters who have faced him, but they have
24:46
Speaker 4: thirty six at bats against him, and they have a
24:48
Speaker 4: three thirty three average and eight eighty five ops six
24:51
Speaker 4: to three strike out walk ratio. So he has not
24:55
Speaker 4: done well against Cleveland. But he also hasn't faced them
24:57
Speaker 4: this year, so I don't know what we do with that.
24:59
Speaker 4: Inform because Martin is obviously better this year than he
25:02
Speaker 4: has been in the past, so Cleveland has not faced
25:05
Speaker 4: this variation of Martin. But I don't know what we
25:10
Speaker 4: do with that info here, you know what I mean, Like,
25:12
Speaker 4: Martin's been good, but he doesn't have good matchup numbers.
25:15
Speaker 4: Slay Chacone is pitching for Cleveland. When I first looked
25:18
Speaker 4: at the starting pitching matchup, I was like, yeah, I mean,
25:20
Speaker 4: this is a big edge for the White Sox, But
25:23
Speaker 4: when you dig into it a little bit, it's not
25:25
Speaker 4: so much. Maybe Chacony has actually been pitching a little
25:29
Speaker 4: bit better recently. Overall numbers are very mediocre. Four point
25:33
Speaker 4: one eighty RA, one point three to six whip is
25:35
Speaker 4: not very good. He's better at home though. He has
25:38
Speaker 4: the better of the home road splits here three point
25:40
Speaker 4: two six homey RA. And he's actually been pretty good
25:44
Speaker 4: over the last month. He's allowed two or fewer earned
25:46
Speaker 4: runs and all of his starts that was throughout June,
25:50
Speaker 4: and he faced the Yankees twice Milwaukee, Houston, and Seattle,
25:55
Speaker 4: so those are mostly good offenses there. His walk grate,
25:59
Speaker 4: you know, well, I don't want to say his walk
26:00
Speaker 4: rate was high. It was more than His strikeout rate
26:02
Speaker 4: was actually kind of low, but he's inducing a lot
26:05
Speaker 4: of ground balls, not align that many hits, not putting
26:08
Speaker 4: that many guys on base, so he is pitching better
26:10
Speaker 4: right now. He has a low strikeout rate on the season,
26:14
Speaker 4: not surprisingly, his hit rate is still too high, though
26:18
Speaker 4: his walk rate is not too bad. So I mean
26:21
Speaker 4: he pitches to contact a bit, which the advanced analytics
26:24
Speaker 4: don't like that type of pitcher. But he's pitching a
26:28
Speaker 4: little bit better right now and doing it against some
26:30
Speaker 4: good offenses. And yes, the White Socks are also a
26:34
Speaker 4: good offense. The White Socks do have good numbers often,
26:37
Speaker 4: but they only have five hitters who have faced him
26:39
Speaker 4: fifteen at bats. They've really hammered him though, three hundred
26:42
Speaker 4: three thirty three average, twelve to twelve OPS, five to
26:45
Speaker 4: two strikeout walk ratio. So yeah, I mean this game there,
26:51
Speaker 4: I think there are more indicators towards an over in
26:53
Speaker 4: this game than anything else. With the money is coming
26:55
Speaker 4: in on the under fifty three percent of tickets on
26:58
Speaker 4: the over ninety percent of the cash on the under
27:00
Speaker 4: totals at eight and a half. Cleveland does play a
27:03
Speaker 4: lot of low scoring home games, and we did get
27:05
Speaker 4: an undercorrect in the second game of the Cleveland Texas series,
27:09
Speaker 4: I believe is what it was this one. Yeah, I
27:12
Speaker 4: think it over makes the most sense in this game though,
27:14
Speaker 4: based on those pitching numbers there. Plus, you've got some
27:18
Speaker 4: bullpens that could be a little bit fadable here, given
27:22
Speaker 4: what their situation looks like, given the usage and the
27:25
Speaker 4: fact that they're kind of mediocre. The money is also
27:29
Speaker 4: fading the White Sox. White Sox are at about minus
27:32
Speaker 4: one ten. It seems way too easy to play the
27:35
Speaker 4: White Sox at just a pick them price here, but
27:38
Speaker 4: the teams have, you know, similar records. It's just the
27:41
Speaker 4: public is going to back the White Sox because they
27:43
Speaker 4: have the better offense. The public always goes with the
27:46
Speaker 4: better offense. So the money seems to be saying that, well,
27:49
Speaker 4: there might be some value in fading the obvious that
27:52
Speaker 4: taking Cleveland here sixty six percent of tickets, sixty five
27:55
Speaker 4: percent of the cash on the White Sox. I mean,
27:58
Speaker 4: I guess what I would say is if you do
28:00
Speaker 4: play Cleveland, I guess you go full game with it
28:03
Speaker 4: and hope that the bullpen is a little bit better
28:05
Speaker 4: than the White Sox. But I don't really, I don't
28:07
Speaker 4: know if I love that, man. I think I do
28:09
Speaker 4: lean to the White Sox slightly here, given what the
28:11
Speaker 4: starting pitching matchup is. But yes, like I said, Chaconi
28:14
Speaker 4: has been pitching better recently, but I still prefer Martin
28:18
Speaker 4: over Chaconian. The bullpens, I don't know, man, the bullpens.
28:22
Speaker 4: Maybe you want to avoid them, so I don't know.
28:24
Speaker 4: Maybe at first five White Sox would make more sense
28:27
Speaker 4: than full game, but it's not a game I'm doing
28:30
Speaker 4: anything with, all right, Next game up is Saint Louis
28:36
Speaker 4: and Atlanta. For Garrett, I think Atlanta's on the verge
28:39
Speaker 4: of sweeping. Oh no, they lost the first game. This,
28:41
Speaker 4: SERI is my mistake. Atlanta won yesterday, so maybe they're
28:44
Speaker 4: breaking out of this negative momentum because they've been playing
28:48
Speaker 4: bad baseball recently. Their offense is really falling off. But
28:52
Speaker 4: they were able to win yesterday five to one, so
28:55
Speaker 4: I think they're gonna show up. Because this is a
28:56
Speaker 4: split series right now, both teams will show up. Saint
29:00
Speaker 4: Louis used three relief pitchers. Atlanta has the better bullpen here.
29:04
Speaker 4: Atlanta use four. But this is this is the best
29:07
Speaker 4: bullpen in baseball. With Atlanta. Based on many metrics, they're
29:11
Speaker 4: like far and away the best. Saint Louis is not
29:14
Speaker 4: great at twenty first, Atlanta has fallen off offensively. Like
29:19
Speaker 4: I said, they're in the middle of the pack now
29:21
Speaker 4: at fifteenth, Saint Louis is eighteenth. I still think Atlanta
29:25
Speaker 4: is a little bit better there. This pitching matchup is interesting.
29:30
Speaker 4: Dustin May is pitching for Saint Louis, and we know
29:33
Speaker 4: more about him, but he is still a little bit
29:35
Speaker 4: unpredictable because you know, he was good for a while
29:38
Speaker 4: with the Dodgers and then he had arm surgery. Didn't
29:42
Speaker 4: look like he was gonna be able to come back
29:43
Speaker 4: from that. But he's still not that old and he
29:46
Speaker 4: is actually having an okay season with Saint Louis here
29:49
Speaker 4: four point three ra A one point two whip. Yeah,
29:53
Speaker 4: Atlanta not playing well right now. There's still a pretty
29:57
Speaker 4: good team though, but I thought they were maybe not
30:00
Speaker 4: as good as they looked the first couple of months though.
30:02
Speaker 4: But yeah, May has been fairly good this season. He's
30:05
Speaker 4: been not as good on the road though. Four point
30:07
Speaker 4: seventy nine roadyra. He takes advantage of us Saint Louis
30:11
Speaker 4: being in a pitcher friendly ballpark and Lanta doesn't hit
30:14
Speaker 4: that well at home. Though, May was not good in
30:17
Speaker 4: his last outings, so he was pitching well for a while.
30:20
Speaker 4: But what I will say is that he had some
30:22
Speaker 4: outings in June. He pitched against some really bad offenses Texas,
30:26
Speaker 4: the Mets, San Diego, and then Kansas City. Is not
30:29
Speaker 4: that good either. That was in Kansas City, but May
30:32
Speaker 4: got absolutely jacked up in that game. He gave up
30:35
Speaker 4: six runs in two winnings. Bad outing from him. Does
30:38
Speaker 4: that mean he's falling out a form now, I mean possible,
30:41
Speaker 4: but you also have to look at the situation. May
30:43
Speaker 4: had thrown a complete game, one hitter against San Diego
30:47
Speaker 4: the game before that, over one hundred pitches, although he
30:50
Speaker 4: threw over one hundred pitches twice in a row. But
30:52
Speaker 4: you could definitely make the argument he was in like
30:54
Speaker 4: some sort of letdown spot after that, so maybe that's
30:57
Speaker 4: why he wasn't that good against Kansas City. Kansas City
31:00
Speaker 4: also at least is a decent offense at home, so
31:03
Speaker 4: you could argue May will return to form here and
31:05
Speaker 4: that that's just a little bit of a blip. But
31:08
Speaker 4: you could also make the argument he's coming out of
31:10
Speaker 4: form here and I don't know which way it's gonna go.
31:13
Speaker 4: His numbers against Atlanta are actually pretty good. In seventy
31:16
Speaker 4: at bats, two hundred average allowed that is quite low,
31:20
Speaker 4: six sixty eight ops, twenty three to eight strikeout walk ratio,
31:24
Speaker 4: so he you know, that ratio is not that good,
31:26
Speaker 4: but he does have pretty good numbers here against Atlanta.
31:29
Speaker 4: Atlanta's going with Hurston Waldrup, who we don't know too
31:34
Speaker 4: much about him. He's young. Most of what we get
31:37
Speaker 4: from him is he had nine starts and ten appearances
31:39
Speaker 4: last year and he was good. He had a two
31:42
Speaker 4: point eight to eight ERA, one point one to nine whip,
31:44
Speaker 4: had a pretty decent strikeout rate, pretty low hit ray,
31:48
Speaker 4: but his walk rate was too high. So pretty typical
31:51
Speaker 4: of these young pitchers where they're a bit wild when
31:53
Speaker 4: they come in. I think that that's basically what we
31:56
Speaker 4: have from him right now. We don't know much about
31:58
Speaker 4: what he's doing so this year. He had made one
32:01
Speaker 4: appearance so far, which I don't know if it was.
32:04
Speaker 4: It was not a start. So he's made one bullpen
32:07
Speaker 4: appearance so far in late June at San Francisco, which
32:10
Speaker 4: was a pretty ideal place for him to come in right.
32:14
Speaker 4: He got a hold in the game, but he actually
32:16
Speaker 4: wasn't good. He went two winnings. He held San Francisco scoreless,
32:20
Speaker 4: but San Francisco is not a good offense, as I
32:22
Speaker 4: keep saying. Gave up two hits, three strikeouts was good,
32:25
Speaker 4: but four walks, I mean he got lucky. He didn't
32:28
Speaker 4: allow any runs there. You cannot walk two guys per
32:31
Speaker 4: inning man, you can't do it. So Waldrop obviously he
32:34
Speaker 4: still has some command issues here. That's gonna be his concern.
32:38
Speaker 4: It looks like he doesn't allow that many runs or hits.
32:41
Speaker 4: He gets some strikeouts here, but he's gonna walk guys. Now,
32:45
Speaker 4: Saint Louis has never seen him before, so that might
32:47
Speaker 4: be an extra advantage to him. I mean, under yeah,
32:54
Speaker 4: I mean that's basically what I was about to say.
32:56
Speaker 4: I mean, I think under probably is how I would
32:59
Speaker 4: lean here. The money he is completely disagreeing with it,
33:01
Speaker 4: though seventy one percent of tickets on the under ninety
33:04
Speaker 4: three percent of the cash on the over. The money
33:07
Speaker 4: is backing the over here pretty strongly. And the totals nine.
33:11
Speaker 4: Like when you see a nine as a total, you
33:13
Speaker 4: know me, My unders are all like lower totals pretty much, uh,
33:17
Speaker 4: because I always feel that the odds makers are telling
33:20
Speaker 4: you something when they line a game a certain way,
33:23
Speaker 4: they're sort of telling you they think this game is
33:25
Speaker 4: gonna have some runs scored. With a total being at nine,
33:28
Speaker 4: you could argue that they made a mistake putting up
33:30
Speaker 4: a nine, and maybe there is some value playing the
33:32
Speaker 4: under well. Saint Louis's bullpen is bad, though, so that's
33:37
Speaker 4: something to keep in mind. So if you're gonna play
33:39
Speaker 4: under here, I think you should do it in the
33:40
Speaker 4: first five. I think you want to avoid Saint Louis's bullpen,
33:45
Speaker 4: so I think a first five under maybe makes some sense.
33:48
Speaker 4: But these are pictures that are really kind of questionable here,
33:51
Speaker 4: So I don't really know what we want to do.
33:54
Speaker 4: Atlanta's getting some of the money, by the way, even
33:56
Speaker 4: though they're expectedly pretty public sixty five percent of the tickets, sick,
34:00
Speaker 4: nine percent of the cash on them and minus one
34:03
Speaker 4: ten or so. Maybe get a little bit of value
34:05
Speaker 4: on Atlanta just because they haven't been playing well recently.
34:09
Speaker 4: But there's still a public side, you know. I mean,
34:13
Speaker 4: I don't really love trying to figure out the side
34:15
Speaker 4: in this game, though, I could see it going either way.
34:18
Speaker 4: I think Saint Louis is overrated generally, though, like I
34:20
Speaker 4: don't think they're as good as their record makes them look,
34:23
Speaker 4: so I think overall, I mean, Atlanta does have some
34:26
Speaker 4: advantages here. They have the better bullpen significantly, and they're
34:30
Speaker 4: the better team. So getting Atlanta is kind of a
34:33
Speaker 4: cheap price. It looks good in a way, but then
34:36
Speaker 4: again it might also kind of look too easy. So
34:41
Speaker 4: this is his first start of the season. Yes, he
34:44
Speaker 4: made one relief appearance. I think Waldrop has some talent,
34:48
Speaker 4: like he has strikeout ability, but he's very wild. It
34:52
Speaker 4: looks like right now, all right, this is a shorter show.
34:57
Speaker 4: So what do I want to do here. I'll do
34:59
Speaker 4: a couple Yeah, I'll do a couple more games, and
35:01
Speaker 4: then I'll take a break. I'll do one more. Then
35:03
Speaker 4: I'll take a break because I have a play in
35:05
Speaker 4: the Detroit Texas game. You probably already know what that's
35:08
Speaker 4: gonna be. And then I will do WNBA unfortunately and
35:12
Speaker 4: World Cup, which I have not found a World Cup
35:16
Speaker 4: play that I like for a while. I should have
35:17
Speaker 4: just played in Mexico the other day. I'm pissed. I'm pissed, dude,
35:21
Speaker 4: because today and yesterday I didn't see anything I really
35:25
Speaker 4: like in the World Cup. And yeah, Mexico looked better
35:30
Speaker 4: to me than everything these last two days, so I
35:32
Speaker 4: should have just played it. It was an easy whom in Mexico.
35:35
Speaker 4: I'm pissed anyway. Tampa Bay and Kansas City. Kansas City
35:40
Speaker 4: is on the verge of getting swept by Tampa Bay. Here.
35:43
Speaker 4: They've lost four games in a row to Tampa Bay
35:45
Speaker 4: now and they're not playing well. They've lost seven or
35:49
Speaker 4: what is this, five of their last six. Excuse me,
35:52
Speaker 4: maybe they'll get extra motivated because they're one of those
35:55
Speaker 4: home teams looking to avoid a sweep. Tampa Bay I
35:58
Speaker 4: think is actually off tomorrow. Oh no, wait, they do
36:01
Speaker 4: play tomorrow. There are a couple of teams off tomorrow,
36:03
Speaker 4: which I think is because of the World Cup scheduling,
36:06
Speaker 4: which is bizarre. There're gonna be a couple of teams
36:08
Speaker 4: not playing on Friday, which I think Philadelphia might be
36:12
Speaker 4: one of them. I forget though, I'll well, we'll see tomorrow.
36:16
Speaker 4: Tampa Bay plays Houston tomorrow, so is Tampa Bay gonna
36:19
Speaker 4: look ahead to Houston? Possibly? I mean, Kansas City is
36:23
Speaker 4: not a team you really pay much attention to, especially
36:26
Speaker 4: when you've been beating them, even though they split the
36:29
Speaker 4: last yearies with Kansas City. Kansas City also has a
36:32
Speaker 4: terrible bullpen. Even though the onliest two guys yesterday, There's
36:35
Speaker 4: no way I would trust Kansas City's bullpen Tampa Bay's
36:40
Speaker 4: three relief pitchers yesterday. I don't love Tampa Bay's bullpen either,
36:44
Speaker 4: even though they're ranked tenth so they do have a
36:46
Speaker 4: pretty good whip, but their e ray still worries me
36:50
Speaker 4: in the mid forest. I consider them to be like
36:52
Speaker 4: a mediocre bullpen. Kansas City is trash. They're ranked dead last,
36:56
Speaker 4: and both e RA and whip I'll say that right
37:00
Speaker 4: now they are the worst bullpen in baseball. It's close
37:02
Speaker 4: between them and Minnesota, but they are a bullpen that
37:05
Speaker 4: you have to either avoid or fade. Kansas City is
37:08
Speaker 4: ranked twenty second in offense. That's not very good. Tampa
37:11
Speaker 4: Bay's tenth, so Tampa Bay wins in that department too.
37:15
Speaker 4: Tampa Bay is going with Ian Seymour. What I will
37:18
Speaker 4: say about Seymour is you have to be aware that
37:21
Speaker 4: they might put an opener in front of them. So
37:23
Speaker 4: Seymour has only actually made like three starts this year.
37:26
Speaker 4: So if you're gonna play this game, I think what
37:29
Speaker 4: you should do is play kolek must start for Kansas
37:32
Speaker 4: City because he probably will make the start. But don't
37:36
Speaker 4: choose a starter for Tampa Bay because I think Seymour
37:39
Speaker 4: will pitch in this game, but they might put an
37:41
Speaker 4: opener in front of them. Uh, Seymour, he's been okay
37:44
Speaker 4: this year. Four point three two ERA, one point one
37:47
Speaker 4: to four whip is not bad. He's been really bad
37:49
Speaker 4: on the road though, seven point four to one road
37:52
Speaker 4: e RA and Kansas City has become more hit or
37:55
Speaker 4: friendly with moving the walls, and Seymour he's actually been
37:58
Speaker 4: okay since they kind of moved into this starting role
38:02
Speaker 4: or following role, whatever you want to say. He's made
38:04
Speaker 4: three starts in here too. He actually had a no
38:08
Speaker 4: hitter against Kansas City last time out. He went six
38:12
Speaker 4: and two thirds no hit ball, threw ninety pitches in
38:16
Speaker 4: the game. Now, my issue with that is going to
38:18
Speaker 4: be he might be in a letdown spot after that. Man,
38:21
Speaker 4: if you go six and two thirds no hit baseball
38:24
Speaker 4: and the same team now gets another look at you,
38:27
Speaker 4: and you threw ninety pitches in that game and you're
38:29
Speaker 4: not used to throwing that many pitches. I think Seymour
38:32
Speaker 4: might do worse. And I mean, obviously he can't do
38:35
Speaker 4: better than that really unless he actually throws a no hitter.
38:39
Speaker 4: But I think the tendency is going to be for
38:40
Speaker 4: people to be like, oh, well, he dominated Kansas City,
38:43
Speaker 4: that should mean that he's gonna do that again. I
38:46
Speaker 4: don't know about that. Kansas City might be able to
38:49
Speaker 4: hit him a little bit this time. However, you look
38:51
Speaker 4: at his numbers against Kansas City, most of it came
38:54
Speaker 4: from that last start, but they're zero for twenty one
38:57
Speaker 4: off him now, seven strikeouts, one walks. So do I
39:01
Speaker 4: want to fade him here? No, I don't, you know. Uh,
39:07
Speaker 4: that's just the way that it is. I mean, he
39:09
Speaker 4: could be in a letdown spot though, Stephen Coleck. I
39:12
Speaker 4: mean we got to figure out what we want to
39:14
Speaker 4: do with him too. Coleck really started falling out a
39:17
Speaker 4: form and then he went on bereavement leaves, So I
39:20
Speaker 4: don't know if maybe there was like maybe something was
39:22
Speaker 4: going on in his head. Although I don't think Coleck
39:26
Speaker 4: is really quite as good as maybe his numbers suggested.
39:29
Speaker 4: But we have to worry about what this bereavement leave was.
39:32
Speaker 4: You know, is he gonna be in the right headspace here?
39:34
Speaker 4: I have no idea. It could go either way, right like,
39:37
Speaker 4: it could be a distraction for him, or he could
39:39
Speaker 4: want to focus on baseball and now that he's back,
39:42
Speaker 4: use baseball to focus on that and you know, put
39:44
Speaker 4: all that stuff out of mind. I don't know how
39:46
Speaker 4: it's going to go for him. He's got a four
39:48
Speaker 4: point one five v one point one to nine whip
39:51
Speaker 4: is not bad. He's a little bit better at home
39:53
Speaker 4: four point zero three homy ra. He was awful in
39:56
Speaker 4: his last start against Saint Louis, though that is not
39:59
Speaker 4: a good sign. He obliterated in that start, gave up
40:02
Speaker 4: nine runs of one to two thirds innis. But again,
40:04
Speaker 4: maybe he just wasn't in the right headspace, because that
40:07
Speaker 4: seems like it was an outlier because the rest of
40:09
Speaker 4: his starts obviously were not anywhere near that bad. He
40:13
Speaker 4: does have a low strikeout rate, though he does not
40:15
Speaker 4: strike guys out, his hit rate is fine. Walk rate
40:19
Speaker 4: is also low, so those numbers are okay. He doesn't
40:22
Speaker 4: really put many guys on base. I don't know what
40:25
Speaker 4: to expect out of him here, and he's also had
40:27
Speaker 4: extra time off. He hasn't pitched his June twenty first,
40:31
Speaker 4: so have you you know, you know what I say
40:34
Speaker 4: about time off, Like I talk about buys and football
40:37
Speaker 4: and stuff. I think that if you go into that
40:39
Speaker 4: time off on a really bad note, the time off
40:41
Speaker 4: can actually help you, you know, it can help you
40:44
Speaker 4: fix what's wrong and get you in a new mindset again.
40:47
Speaker 4: So the fact that he's been off since June twenty first,
40:50
Speaker 4: maybe that'll help him a little bit. Even though pitchers
40:53
Speaker 4: I like I do say they're creatures of habit. You
40:55
Speaker 4: want them to pitch on schedule. But for him, with
40:58
Speaker 4: his start being that ad a change of schedule could
41:01
Speaker 4: be a good thing here. Uh then, what are his
41:04
Speaker 4: numbers against Tampa Bay? They're not good although Tampa Bay
41:10
Speaker 4: only has four hitters who have faced him six at bats,
41:12
Speaker 4: but they have a five hundred average eleven sixty seven
41:15
Speaker 4: ops against them. So Colek hasn't really done that well
41:18
Speaker 4: against him. This is a very difficult game to figure out.
41:22
Speaker 4: The money is fading Tampa Bay Timpa Bay is at
41:25
Speaker 4: about minus one eighteen minus one twenty. Here, it looks
41:28
Speaker 4: really easy to play Tampa Bay, right like Tampa Bay
41:31
Speaker 4: is still leading to Al East here because the Yankees
41:34
Speaker 4: are on a massive skid right now. Kansas City has
41:38
Speaker 4: one of the worst records in the American League, so
41:40
Speaker 4: it looks really easy to play Tampa Bay here eighty
41:44
Speaker 4: one percent of tickets, fifty one percent of the cash
41:46
Speaker 4: on them. Probably it looks too easy, So that's why
41:49
Speaker 4: the money is fading them here. If you play Kansas City,
41:52
Speaker 4: you cannot play their bullpen, though you have to play
41:54
Speaker 4: them first five. And I don't know if you know,
41:57
Speaker 4: I don't know if you really want to be I
41:58
Speaker 4: don't know if you really want to back either of
42:00
Speaker 4: these pitchers here. To be honest, the money is also
42:03
Speaker 4: heavily on the over, sixty nine percent of tickets on
42:06
Speaker 4: the under ninety five percent of the cash on the over.
42:09
Speaker 4: I can kind of see the argument for it if
42:11
Speaker 4: you think the colec might still be, you know, have
42:15
Speaker 4: something going on in his head, if Seymour has some
42:18
Speaker 4: sort of regression here from that awesome appearance that he
42:21
Speaker 4: made last time out against this exact same team Colek.
42:25
Speaker 4: Of course, because he was off for an extended period
42:27
Speaker 4: of time, he did not pitch in that series, so
42:29
Speaker 4: Tampa Bay didn't see him recently, but ten and a half.
42:34
Speaker 4: I mean, it's a high total that we've been seeing
42:36
Speaker 4: high totals in Kansas City because they move the walls
42:39
Speaker 4: in and Kansas City's bullpen is atrocious. But maybe all
42:42
Speaker 4: those things will help this game go over the total
42:46
Speaker 4: ten and a half. I mean, I think there are
42:48
Speaker 4: more arguments for an over than an under in that game.
42:51
Speaker 4: I will say that at least the Braves traded Swanson
42:54
Speaker 4: yet where he's on the Cubs right stacks. What's up?
42:57
Speaker 4: Thanks for hanging out all right, I'm gonna be right
42:59
Speaker 4: backed on all finish the show off. We'll have one
43:02
Speaker 4: more baseball play, three baseball games to talk about, three
43:05
Speaker 4: WNBA games, three World Cup games, So three three three,
43:09
Speaker 4: only have one more play left, and it is in
43:11
Speaker 4: the next baseball game. All right, one second? Yep, inside,
43:26
Speaker 4: I want to kill myself. We were on own seven
43:30
Speaker 4: run over the last two days after tonight. It was
43:32
Speaker 4: just complete bullshit. So that's that's how I'm gonna start
43:36
Speaker 4: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
43:39
Speaker 4: even know what to tell you above that I just
43:41
Speaker 4: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
43:44
Speaker 4: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
43:49
Speaker 4: not a good day at all. Own four that have
43:54
Speaker 4: not had a good season. Man with Wickens slump that
43:58
Speaker 4: I'm on. The slump continues, I've reached a new peak. Actually,
44:04
Speaker 4: I'm going to burn my browins hack, Man, I don't
44:06
Speaker 4: know what is going on with the Bruins arch hape?
44:10
Speaker 4: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
44:12
Speaker 4: March ninth. I think who even knows? Man, I don't
44:15
Speaker 4: know what data is anymore. I don't even know what
44:18
Speaker 4: data is anymore. Man, back with you after the worst
44:22
Speaker 4: day that I could possibly have, Back with you as
44:24
Speaker 4: I always am until I die, at least oh and
44:28
Speaker 4: two yesterday and yesterday it did not go well for me.
44:31
Speaker 4: Own five, the worst month that I've ever had in
44:35
Speaker 4: my eighteen years doing this. I don't know what to
44:38
Speaker 4: even tell you about this anymore. The slumpers, the slump discontinuous,
44:42
Speaker 4: The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't
44:48
Speaker 4: even know what I should do at this point, other
44:50
Speaker 4: than potentially end it all. Yeah, the slump continues. All right,
45:01
Speaker 4: Hold on a second, I feel like my audio might
45:04
Speaker 4: be kind of loud on it. It's set to where
45:06
Speaker 4: it usually is though, I don't know anyway. Next game up, Detroit, Texas.
45:11
Speaker 4: All right, this is gonna be an under. You probably
45:20
Speaker 4: could have predicted this. It's Texas, you know, playing unders
45:24
Speaker 4: in Texas not a bad idea. They play a lot
45:27
Speaker 4: of home under games. They don't hit as well at home.
45:30
Speaker 4: They pitch pretty well at home. Seven and a half.
45:32
Speaker 4: We get the key number there, we get the hook.
45:35
Speaker 4: I think both bullpens are actually backable here. I mean
45:38
Speaker 4: not surprising with Texas, but with Detroit as well. Texas
45:43
Speaker 4: didn't use the better relievers yesterday, so Texas they'd use
45:46
Speaker 4: them a day before that. So Texas does have their
45:48
Speaker 4: better relievers available here. They're pretty well rested. Actually, Detroit's
45:52
Speaker 4: bullpen's been fine recently too. They're in okay shape by
45:56
Speaker 4: then coming into this one too. They use a couple
45:58
Speaker 4: more long relief guys. Yes, they do have some injuries
46:01
Speaker 4: going on, but some of their better relievers are available,
46:04
Speaker 4: including their back end relief pitchers. So I think the
46:07
Speaker 4: bullpen's set up okay here. Detroit's ranked seventeenth, their erays
46:11
Speaker 4: below four, so that's something I do like to see.
46:14
Speaker 4: Of course, Texas the bullpen has ranked eighth. Their eray's
46:18
Speaker 4: gone up a little bit recently, but I like Texas's bullpen.
46:20
Speaker 4: I think they're good. I think they're in a better
46:23
Speaker 4: shape here now, more rested again, and I'm gonna back
46:26
Speaker 4: both starters here from Beervaldez is pitching for Detroit, and
46:29
Speaker 4: I know this guy is kind of wild. He's out
46:32
Speaker 4: of control. He's got a four point zero five VRRA
46:35
Speaker 4: and one point three to three whip is not that good,
46:38
Speaker 4: I know, But back to him and some other similar
46:41
Speaker 4: situations to this, and I think this might be a
46:43
Speaker 4: good situation to have him do well. He's been better
46:46
Speaker 4: on the road, a three point five to nine road
46:48
Speaker 4: y RA, so that's good. So he lines up decently
46:52
Speaker 4: in that regard. Here he's pitching in Texas, which is
46:55
Speaker 4: probably gonna be a good thing. He's coming up a
46:57
Speaker 4: bad start against Houston, but he pitched really well against
46:59
Speaker 4: the Yan he's the start before then. He was good
47:02
Speaker 4: against Houston, which by the way, was an under that
47:04
Speaker 4: I gave out on the show here in the game
47:06
Speaker 4: against Houston, first five under. He pitched really well. That
47:10
Speaker 4: was his first start against Houston. After Houston got rid
47:13
Speaker 4: of him. So I told you I thought he would
47:15
Speaker 4: be pumped up, and he was. And then in his
47:17
Speaker 4: most recent start he had to vase Houston again almost immediately,
47:21
Speaker 4: so he was at more of a disadvantage in that
47:23
Speaker 4: next one, and Houston did get to him a little bit,
47:25
Speaker 4: but he wasn't horrible in that start. So I still
47:28
Speaker 4: think he's pitching alright right now. His hit rate is,
47:32
Speaker 4: you know, kind of mediocre this year. It's fine. His
47:35
Speaker 4: walk rate is a little bit high, which is usually
47:37
Speaker 4: the case with him. His strikeout rate has gone down
47:40
Speaker 4: a little bit this year, which is a little bit
47:41
Speaker 4: of a concern. But he is pitching okay, And again
47:45
Speaker 4: I think this is a good matchup for him to
47:47
Speaker 4: pitch well here in a good environment in Texas. Although
47:50
Speaker 4: you're gonna say, well, Texas is familiar with him though,
47:53
Speaker 4: because he was on Houston. Yes, that's true, so we're
47:56
Speaker 4: gonna have a big sample size. He's also a ground
47:58
Speaker 4: ball pitcher, for what that's but you know, doesn't I
48:01
Speaker 4: mean Texas really, what their stadium does is it helps
48:04
Speaker 4: fly ball pitchers pitch a little bit better. It doesn't
48:06
Speaker 4: really affect ground ball pitchers. Valdez against Texas. Yes, Texas
48:11
Speaker 4: has seen a lot of them because he was in
48:13
Speaker 4: their division one hundred and eight at bats. But it's
48:16
Speaker 4: a good thing in this case because even though they're
48:18
Speaker 4: familiar with them, they have not been able to hit
48:20
Speaker 4: him at all. Really, they have a one to ninety
48:22
Speaker 4: four average against him, five to ten ops, forty strikeouts
48:26
Speaker 4: and four walks. Is that ratio good? Yeah, Like one
48:31
Speaker 4: hundred and eight at bats is like almost half of
48:33
Speaker 4: them have resulted in in strikeouts. I mean, this is ridiculous.
48:38
Speaker 4: So yeah, he pretty much dominates this Texas lineup, So
48:42
Speaker 4: I think this is a good matchup for him. He's
48:44
Speaker 4: better on the road, it's a pitcher friendly ballpark and
48:47
Speaker 4: will also back Nathan Valdi. On the other side, Evaldi
48:51
Speaker 4: is pitching better again. Recently, He's got a three point
48:53
Speaker 4: nine to five year RA one point one to six whip.
48:56
Speaker 4: He was really good last year for Texas, and I
48:59
Speaker 4: know this year he hasn't really been as good, but
49:01
Speaker 4: I think he's been getting a little bit unlucky via
49:03
Speaker 4: the home run ball, which is his one issue is
49:07
Speaker 4: that he gives up home runs. But again, Texas Stadium
49:10
Speaker 4: tends to knock some of those things down. He hasn't
49:13
Speaker 4: been as good at home, so the home road splits
49:15
Speaker 4: are actually against him here, four point five R at home.
49:17
Speaker 4: But I have a hard time wrapping my head around
49:20
Speaker 4: how to explain that, you know what I mean. It's
49:23
Speaker 4: a smaller sample though, Like his road starts are a
49:26
Speaker 4: bigger sample by like more than double, so you know,
49:31
Speaker 4: like he's made twice as many starts basically on the road,
49:34
Speaker 4: thrown twice as many innings. So I don't really put
49:37
Speaker 4: that much weight into his home numbers here. And I'm
49:38
Speaker 4: pretty sure that last year he was really good at home.
49:42
Speaker 4: Actually I'm wrong. Last year he was actually worse at
49:44
Speaker 4: home too, so my mistake, but he was really good
49:47
Speaker 4: just overall. Last year his home RA was two point
49:50
Speaker 4: one point five. So yeah, four point five this year,
49:54
Speaker 4: I kind of expect that to go down a little bit.
49:57
Speaker 4: He's been pretty good his last three starts. He gave
49:59
Speaker 4: up three run are fewer in all of them, with
50:01
Speaker 4: six or more innings in all of them. I will
50:03
Speaker 4: put a caveat behind that though, that two of them
50:06
Speaker 4: are on the road, and the starts are against Boston,
50:09
Speaker 4: San Diego and Toronto. Those are not good offenses, I know,
50:14
Speaker 4: but he was pretty dominant, man. I mean, he had
50:16
Speaker 4: twenty four strikeouts and three walks over that span, so
50:19
Speaker 4: he's obviously in full command of his pitches right now.
50:22
Speaker 4: He's pitching well. He was really really good last year.
50:26
Speaker 4: He's got a low hit rate this year, a low
50:27
Speaker 4: walk rate as well, strikeout rate pretty high as well. Again,
50:31
Speaker 4: it's just been the home runs, and it doesn't really
50:33
Speaker 4: even make sense because he's not even a fly ball pitcher,
50:36
Speaker 4: so the amount of home runs that have been hit
50:38
Speaker 4: against him really just seems like an outlier to me.
50:41
Speaker 4: I don't know what's going on with that. There's still happening,
50:45
Speaker 4: although he didn't allow any of his last two starts. Again,
50:48
Speaker 4: I don't know what's going on with that, but I
50:50
Speaker 4: think he is backable here, and he's going up against
50:52
Speaker 4: a lineup that isn't that potent, and they haven't done
50:55
Speaker 4: well against him. They actually have seven hitters who have
50:57
Speaker 4: faced him thirty two at bats, one eighty eight average,
51:01
Speaker 4: five seventy nine ohps seven to two strikeout walk ratio.
51:04
Speaker 4: So Eavaldi has done pretty well against Detroit's lineup. We'll
51:09
Speaker 4: go under in this game. This one the money was
51:11
Speaker 4: not agreeing with me, and I know the money didn't
51:13
Speaker 4: agree with me on either play yesterday and they both
51:15
Speaker 4: got absolutely slaughtered. We have fifty five percent of tickets,
51:19
Speaker 4: eighty eight percent of the cash on the over here.
51:22
Speaker 4: But the oddsmakers are telling you they think it's gonna
51:24
Speaker 4: be a low scoring game by lining the game at
51:26
Speaker 4: seven or seven and a half here. So which one
51:30
Speaker 4: do we believe? Do we believe the market percentages or
51:32
Speaker 4: do we read into the oddsmakers telling you this game
51:35
Speaker 4: is gonna be low scoring. Also, the money's coming in
51:38
Speaker 4: towards Detroit sixty five percent of tickets, sixty one percent
51:41
Speaker 4: of the cash on Texas and minus won twenty or something.
51:44
Speaker 4: And if you think Valdez is the less trustworthy of
51:48
Speaker 4: the two pitchers and money is kind of backing him
51:50
Speaker 4: to pitch, well here, that to me kind of is
51:53
Speaker 4: an indicator towards it being an under as well. I
51:56
Speaker 4: point that out occasionally on the show. So yeah, I
52:00
Speaker 4: like the under in that one. All right, next game up.
52:04
Speaker 4: I almost put this on my card too, Anaheim at Seattle.
52:08
Speaker 4: These teams didn't play yesterday because there was a World
52:10
Speaker 4: Cup game in Seattle. So these teams are off yesterday,
52:14
Speaker 4: and you know what I say about that. I think
52:16
Speaker 4: when there's a day off it helps the under because
52:19
Speaker 4: the hitters can kind of cool off a little bit
52:21
Speaker 4: and the bullpens can rest. However, I don't like Anaheim's bullpen.
52:26
Speaker 4: We have two rested bullpens. Seattle's ranked eighteenth, but they're
52:29
Speaker 4: definitely better than that. Their era suggests that they're definitely
52:32
Speaker 4: better than that. I know their whip isn't that good,
52:34
Speaker 4: but Seattle is a pretty decent bullpen. Anaheim is not.
52:39
Speaker 4: Anaheim is ranked twenty fifth. They're a bullpen that I
52:41
Speaker 4: do want to avoid. Hitting Wise, neither team has actually
52:45
Speaker 4: really been that great Seattle. You know, they've had guys
52:48
Speaker 4: in and out of their lineup all year. They're at
52:51
Speaker 4: twenty fifth right now, but I do think they're better
52:53
Speaker 4: than that. The Angels are seventeenth. I think the Seattle
52:58
Speaker 4: offense might get going at some point. Now. Seattle is
53:01
Speaker 4: on the verge of sweeping Anaheim here, so their momentum
53:05
Speaker 4: might stall out a little bit. So if you're looking
53:06
Speaker 4: at the side here, possible, you know, situational anger for
53:11
Speaker 4: Anaheim here, but I don't think you could fade Seattle's
53:14
Speaker 4: starting pitcher here or fade Seattle's bullpen with the Anaheim's bullpen,
53:18
Speaker 4: you know what I mean. So that's kind of the problem.
53:20
Speaker 4: I think Seattle has some advantages here, but Seattle is
53:23
Speaker 4: a huge favorite and probably should not be favored by
53:26
Speaker 4: as much as they are. Seattle plays Toronto X by
53:30
Speaker 4: the way, starting tomorrow. So if Seattle hasn't played Toronto
53:34
Speaker 4: yet this year, you know what that is. That's a
53:36
Speaker 4: huge revenge series because you remember what happened last year.
53:40
Speaker 4: Toronto beat Seattle in the ALCS in a very crazy
53:44
Speaker 4: series that I think it went seven games and it
53:46
Speaker 4: went extra innings in game seven if I remember correctly.
53:49
Speaker 4: That series was insane. So Seattle might look ahead to Toronto,
53:55
Speaker 4: so I would worry about, you know, Seattle, maybe being distracted.
53:57
Speaker 4: That series against Toronto is gonna be big, just because
54:00
Speaker 4: it's a huge revenge series for Seattle. But again, I
54:05
Speaker 4: don't want to face Seattle's starting pitcher here. Anaheim's bullpen
54:08
Speaker 4: is absolutely awful. I do like the starters.
54:12
Speaker 2: Though.
54:12
Speaker 4: Walbert Urania is pitching for the Angels. I think he's good.
54:16
Speaker 4: He's so only twenty two and he's shown signs of
54:19
Speaker 4: being a pretty good pitcher. He's got a three point
54:21
Speaker 4: one four e rail, though I know his whip suggests
54:23
Speaker 4: that he's not as good as that one point three
54:26
Speaker 4: to four whip is a little bit high. He's been
54:28
Speaker 4: good both home and away, though he was better at
54:30
Speaker 4: home for a while this year, but he's sort of
54:33
Speaker 4: the same home and away now. He wasn't good in
54:36
Speaker 4: his last home start, and that's probably why, which is interesting,
54:39
Speaker 4: because he went to the A's stadium and absolutely dominated
54:42
Speaker 4: the A's pretty much for five innings, which is a
54:45
Speaker 4: really good sign doing that in that stadium. But then
54:48
Speaker 4: he came home and maybe a difficult spot because the
54:50
Speaker 4: A's had just seen him. So the A's figured him
54:53
Speaker 4: out and the A's demolished him in that last start. Now,
54:57
Speaker 4: the good thing for Urania here is he's not gonna
55:00
Speaker 4: be in a spot like that because Seattle has never
55:02
Speaker 4: seen him before. So I think Urania, you know, he
55:05
Speaker 4: had an unfamiliarity edge against the A's the first time,
55:09
Speaker 4: and then the thing about these young pitchers is when
55:11
Speaker 4: the opposing lineup sees them once and doesn't do well
55:15
Speaker 4: the next time they see them, the hitters do have
55:18
Speaker 4: an advantage because they just saw him, and they saw
55:21
Speaker 4: him for the first time, so then they know what
55:22
Speaker 4: to expect. So I think that's what happened there. I
55:25
Speaker 4: kind of like Urania to bounce back here in this one.
55:28
Speaker 4: I mean, he loved three or fewer earned runs in
55:31
Speaker 4: every other start except for one early in the season.
55:34
Speaker 4: On the entire season, he's got a really low hit rate.
55:37
Speaker 4: His walk rate is too high though, that's his problem
55:40
Speaker 4: is he walks way too many guys. His strikeout rate
55:43
Speaker 4: is decent, his ground ball rate is good as well.
55:46
Speaker 4: Seattle's a pitcher of friendly park, so I think that
55:48
Speaker 4: should help him out probably as well, although he's not
55:50
Speaker 4: even a flyball pitcher though, but again, unfamiliarity against Seattle
55:55
Speaker 4: should help him out as well. So I think Urania
55:57
Speaker 4: should pitch well here. And on the other Bryce Miller
56:01
Speaker 4: has been awesome for Seattle since he came back from injury.
56:04
Speaker 4: One point nine to seven e RRA point seven to WHIP.
56:08
Speaker 4: I mean, he's putting up some elite numbers here. Point
56:12
Speaker 4: five to seven e ray at home is ridiculous. He's
56:14
Speaker 4: been basically untouchable at home. He just had kind of
56:18
Speaker 4: a questionable start at Pittsburgh. We allowed three runs in
56:21
Speaker 4: five to two thirds innings. We know Pittsburgh's really good
56:24
Speaker 4: at home. He still had eleven strikeouts in that outing,
56:28
Speaker 4: so he was striking everybody out, didn't walk anybody, and
56:31
Speaker 4: he got a little unlucky that he allowed He allowed
56:33
Speaker 4: two of them runs there. His home run ball has
56:36
Speaker 4: been an issue a little bit recently, but it was
56:39
Speaker 4: against Washington and Pittsburgh on the road. Those are two
56:43
Speaker 4: pretty potent offenses, so you know, I'm not gonna put
56:46
Speaker 4: that much weight into that, even though Anaheim could hit
56:48
Speaker 4: their fair share of home runs as well. Miller has
56:51
Speaker 4: a low hit rate since he's come back, a really
56:53
Speaker 4: low walk rate. He's hardly walked anybody, and his strikeout
56:56
Speaker 4: rate is high, so his command numbers are really good.
57:02
Speaker 4: You know, like this is like, yeah, these numbers look
57:05
Speaker 4: pretty elite right now. I'm not gonna say that he's
57:07
Speaker 4: actually an elite pitcher, but he is good. His numbers
57:10
Speaker 4: against Anaheim are also good. In fifty three at bats,
57:13
Speaker 4: one eighty nine average, allowed five to seventy eight ops.
57:17
Speaker 4: The walk rate is the only issue here, seventeen strikeout,
57:20
Speaker 4: seven walks. It's too many walks. But other than that, yeah,
57:24
Speaker 4: I like this to be a first five under man.
57:26
Speaker 4: I was really close to putting this on my card.
57:29
Speaker 4: The money is backing the over sixty one percent of tickets,
57:32
Speaker 4: ninety four percent of the cash on the over. But again,
57:34
Speaker 4: this is a low total. It's seven or seven and
57:37
Speaker 4: a half, and I think you could find a first
57:40
Speaker 4: five under four in this game. I mean, I this
57:43
Speaker 4: game just concerns me a little bit more, just the
57:47
Speaker 4: way that I think about it. But of course, you
57:48
Speaker 4: know that means this one's gonna be a winner and
57:50
Speaker 4: my players are gonna be losers. You know that's what
57:52
Speaker 4: it means here. I just think Urin is just a
57:55
Speaker 4: little bit of a wild card, so I'm not fully
57:59
Speaker 4: sure that, but I do trust Miller. The money is
58:02
Speaker 4: backing Seattle eighty four percent of tickets, ninety one percent
58:05
Speaker 4: of the cash on Seattle. And yeah, I mean, I
58:09
Speaker 4: think Seattle does have a starting pitching edge here. I
58:11
Speaker 4: think they clearly have a bullpen edge here. You can
58:14
Speaker 4: maybe argue they have the better offense too, but they're
58:16
Speaker 4: not in the better situation. And minus two ten is ridiculous.
58:21
Speaker 4: Like I think, the price on Seattle is pretty ridiculous
58:23
Speaker 4: in this game, especially given the total is really low. Like,
58:28
Speaker 4: I don't think any team should be favored by that
58:30
Speaker 4: much in a game with a total that's this low,
58:33
Speaker 4: a game that's supposed to be pretty close. I just
58:36
Speaker 4: don't think there's any value trying to back Seattle here
58:39
Speaker 4: on the money line or maybe you know, on the
58:41
Speaker 4: run line or whatever. So yeah, but I wouldn't want
58:45
Speaker 4: to fade them either, you know, even though the situation
58:47
Speaker 4: does kind of line up against them, all right, So yeah,
58:51
Speaker 4: I like first five under four in that one, if
58:53
Speaker 4: you can find it. And then we have San Diego
58:55
Speaker 4: and Dodgers on MLB Network. Dodgers are returning home from
58:58
Speaker 4: the road, and you know, I talk about how return
59:01
Speaker 4: home it's a bad spot. They went to Minnesota, San
59:04
Speaker 4: Diego and the A's, so they're returning home from a
59:07
Speaker 4: long road trip. You know, I talk about that you
59:09
Speaker 4: return home, you could be distracted, could be worse, because
59:13
Speaker 4: I mean, this might be an even worse spot for
59:15
Speaker 4: the Dodgers because they have a twelve game advantage over
59:17
Speaker 4: the over San Diego right now, and during that road
59:20
Speaker 4: trip they won the series in San Diego, So like,
59:23
Speaker 4: what motivation do they really have to focus that hard
59:26
Speaker 4: on this game? You know what I mean, San Diego
59:29
Speaker 4: is going to be the more motivated team here, So
59:31
Speaker 4: I don't like the Dodgers' spot here returning home from
59:34
Speaker 4: the road. However, the Dodgers are staying in the Pacific
59:38
Speaker 4: time zone. They've played two series in the Pacific time
59:41
Speaker 4: zone over the last you know, week or so, so
59:44
Speaker 4: the Dodgers don't have to change time zones. San Diego does.
59:48
Speaker 4: So that's a little bit of an issue San Diego.
59:50
Speaker 4: If they were starting a road trip, I would like
59:52
Speaker 4: San Diego a bit more here. San Diego just played
59:56
Speaker 4: in Chicago. They were at the Cubs, so they're in
59:58
Speaker 4: this spot where they have to travel two times zones
1:00:01
Speaker 4: back west and they have to play a ten to
1:00:03
Speaker 4: ten PM game, And you know, I warn against that.
1:00:05
Speaker 4: I don't like spots like that. When a team is
1:00:07
Speaker 4: going from one of the eastern times zones back west
1:00:11
Speaker 4: and playing a late game, it's gonna mess with their
1:00:13
Speaker 4: biological clock. Although what I will say is San Diego's
1:00:16
Speaker 4: not gonna overlook the Dodgers. San Diego's lost five games
1:00:19
Speaker 4: in a row, two to the Dodgers, and got swept
1:00:22
Speaker 4: by the Cobs. They lost twenty three to three yesterday. Yeah,
1:00:26
Speaker 4: Walker Bueller was really bad in that game yesterday, so
1:00:30
Speaker 4: you're coming off an embarrassing loss. Twenty three to three
1:00:33
Speaker 4: looks like a football score. So that does make me
1:00:37
Speaker 4: think that San Diego is going to at least be
1:00:39
Speaker 4: motivated here. But I do worry about the travel spot
1:00:42
Speaker 4: for them having to travel back west like that, and
1:00:44
Speaker 4: I can't back Randy Vazquez either, man. I know San
1:00:48
Speaker 4: Diego has a very good bullpen. I think they're an
1:00:50
Speaker 4: elite bullpen. They only use one guy out of the
1:00:53
Speaker 4: bullpen yesterday, so their bullpen is basically clean here and
1:00:57
Speaker 4: all their better relievers are available. The Dodgers have a
1:00:59
Speaker 4: pretty rested bullpend two though they only use one guy
1:01:03
Speaker 4: over each of the last two days, so their bullpen
1:01:06
Speaker 4: is rested too. The Dodgers are ranked fifth and bullpen
1:01:09
Speaker 4: san Diego's ninth, but I think San Diego is the
1:01:11
Speaker 4: better bullpen. But the Dodgers' bullpen is not bad. Dodgers
1:01:15
Speaker 4: are number one in offense and San Diego is dead last,
1:01:19
Speaker 4: so of course that is a little bit of a
1:01:21
Speaker 4: concern for San Diego that they can't hit, although they
1:01:25
Speaker 4: might be able to put up some runs here. But
1:01:27
Speaker 4: I can't back San Diego because Randy Vazquez, you know,
1:01:31
Speaker 4: the advanced analytics guy's got him right. He's he's regressing
1:01:35
Speaker 4: in a major way right now. He's got a four
1:01:37
Speaker 4: point four to four ere A one point four to
1:01:39
Speaker 4: six whip is really bad. And I've complained about his
1:01:42
Speaker 4: whip in the past too, like he just puts way
1:01:44
Speaker 4: too many guys on base. That's happening again. Although crazily enough,
1:01:49
Speaker 4: he's he's actually better on the road three point three
1:01:52
Speaker 4: to two roadier race, so that does make him a
1:01:54
Speaker 4: little bit more backable on the road. I still don't
1:01:57
Speaker 4: want to do it, though. It also doesn't make sense,
1:01:59
Speaker 4: like why that bad at home in one of the
1:02:01
Speaker 4: most pitcher friendly parks in baseball in San Diego. I
1:02:05
Speaker 4: don't know, but he's been awful recently. He's failed to
1:02:08
Speaker 4: make it more than four innings at three of his
1:02:11
Speaker 4: last four starts. San Diego's lost four of his last
1:02:13
Speaker 4: five outings. I mean they've lost more than that. Going back,
1:02:16
Speaker 4: they've lost six of his last seven. He gave up
1:02:21
Speaker 4: seven runs a piece in his last two starts. Granted
1:02:23
Speaker 4: there was some bad fielding behind him, so only ten
1:02:28
Speaker 4: of those fourteen runs were unearmed, but that's still awful.
1:02:31
Speaker 4: Or were earned. Excuse me, but that's still awful. Tenor
1:02:34
Speaker 4: and runs and six of two thirds innings. One of
1:02:36
Speaker 4: them was at Texas. I think I might have tried
1:02:39
Speaker 4: to give out an under on that one too. How
1:02:40
Speaker 4: do you pitch poorly in Texas? That's not a good sign, man.
1:02:45
Speaker 4: And then he got lit up by the Dodgers in
1:02:47
Speaker 4: his most recent start. So the Dodgers totally wrecked him
1:02:51
Speaker 4: in his most recent start. And he also pitched poorly
1:02:53
Speaker 4: against the Dodgers back in May. Both those games are
1:02:57
Speaker 4: at home. But he does not appear to do well
1:02:59
Speaker 4: against the Dodgers. I don't think it matters if the
1:03:01
Speaker 4: Dodgers saw him recently or not. Oh yeah, his numbers
1:03:05
Speaker 4: against the Dodgers they're not very good. In seventy at
1:03:08
Speaker 4: bats to seventy one, averages lower than you would think.
1:03:11
Speaker 4: Nine oh five ohps not good, nine strikeouts, seven walks.
1:03:15
Speaker 4: So yeah, I do not think he's gonna do well here.
1:03:18
Speaker 4: The Dodgers are going with Roki Sasaki, and he's not
1:03:21
Speaker 4: pitching well right now either. And I think what they
1:03:23
Speaker 4: did with Sasaki, they pushed him back I think they
1:03:26
Speaker 4: pushed him back intentionally to give him a better matchup,
1:03:30
Speaker 4: because if you look at the Dodgers' schedule, they're playing
1:03:33
Speaker 4: the A's in their most recent series. So I think
1:03:37
Speaker 4: they pushed Sasaki back to give him an easier offense
1:03:41
Speaker 4: to face against San Diego. The problem with that approach
1:03:45
Speaker 4: is he faced San Diego in the previous series in
1:03:48
Speaker 4: San Diego and he was bad. He went four innings,
1:03:51
Speaker 4: give up three on one's, had five walks in the
1:03:53
Speaker 4: game and only two strikeouts, and that was in a
1:03:55
Speaker 4: pitcher friendly San Diego park against the weakest offense in baseball.
1:04:00
Speaker 4: That is not good. And now he has to face
1:04:03
Speaker 4: them again. Now, maybe he'll do better this time. But Sasaki,
1:04:08
Speaker 4: like I said, he's fallen out of form. Dude. Once
1:04:10
Speaker 4: he got blown out by the White Sox. That ruined
1:04:14
Speaker 4: his momentum. Like he was pitching well for a while
1:04:18
Speaker 4: and looking like he was kind of getting the hang
1:04:19
Speaker 4: of things, but I questioned his mental toughness, and I
1:04:22
Speaker 4: think that White Sox start just spiraled him again. And
1:04:25
Speaker 4: he hasn't been good for three starts in a row now,
1:04:28
Speaker 4: so that's not good. He does have a good era
1:04:31
Speaker 4: at home, three point five home e RA, So I
1:04:34
Speaker 4: think that was also part of the reason why the
1:04:36
Speaker 4: Dodgers pushed him back. I think it was because they
1:04:38
Speaker 4: didn't want him to pitch on the road and having
1:04:41
Speaker 4: him pitched in the A's stadium that would not have
1:04:43
Speaker 4: helped his confidence, you know what I mean. So they
1:04:45
Speaker 4: didn't want him to pitch in a hitter friendly park
1:04:48
Speaker 4: against a very potent offense. So now instead they're like,
1:04:51
Speaker 4: all right, we'll have you pitch at home where you're
1:04:53
Speaker 4: better against a weaker lineup, which it does make sense, Sasaki.
1:04:59
Speaker 4: He has a four point an eight eight ERA overall,
1:05:01
Speaker 4: by the way, and a one point three to three whips.
1:05:03
Speaker 4: Some of those numbers are coming out of the bullpen,
1:05:07
Speaker 4: you know, I don't think that fully is indicative of
1:05:09
Speaker 4: what he really is, but I think it's hard to
1:05:11
Speaker 4: gauge what he really is right now going against San Diego.
1:05:14
Speaker 4: He wasn't good in that last start against San Diego.
1:05:17
Speaker 4: Like I said, his numbers are really weird against them,
1:05:19
Speaker 4: Like basically all their hitters have faced him at least once.
1:05:23
Speaker 4: He's got fourteen at bats against them, which isn't a lot.
1:05:26
Speaker 4: Two strikeouts, four walks, not good. Two fourteen average allowed
1:05:31
Speaker 4: is really low, but a nine to sixty ops so yeah.
1:05:36
Speaker 4: I mean he hasn't allowed them to hit for average,
1:05:38
Speaker 4: but they've hit against him for power, and they've drawn
1:05:41
Speaker 4: a bunch of walks against him. I don't think I
1:05:44
Speaker 4: trust Sasaki here. I think this game looks like an over.
1:05:48
Speaker 4: The total is nine. I mean it's pretty high for
1:05:50
Speaker 4: a reason. Seventy three percent of tickets eighty nine percent
1:05:53
Speaker 4: of the cash on the over. I know San Diego
1:05:55
Speaker 4: was in a massively high scoring game yesterday. I know
1:05:59
Speaker 4: this is the Dodgers, so the public is probably gonna
1:06:01
Speaker 4: play the over here too, which, as I kind of mentioned,
1:06:04
Speaker 4: the public percentage seems to be there. But I think
1:06:07
Speaker 4: the over makes sense here, and you're right on that
1:06:09
Speaker 4: key number of nine, so not even having to lay
1:06:12
Speaker 4: the nine and a half with that seems like that's
1:06:14
Speaker 4: probably the right way to approach this game is to
1:06:16
Speaker 4: play the over. Eighty nine percent of the tickets and
1:06:19
Speaker 4: eighty seven percent of the cash on the Dodgers. Dodgers
1:06:22
Speaker 4: that minus one ninety eight or so here, Yeah, I
1:06:26
Speaker 4: mean you're always gonna have to pay a premium with
1:06:28
Speaker 4: the Dodgers. I don't think Sasaki should be a favorite
1:06:31
Speaker 4: that heavily Dodgers is still in that dreaded return home spot,
1:06:34
Speaker 4: which is not great. So, I mean, I can understand
1:06:37
Speaker 4: maybe there is some value in trying to back san
1:06:39
Speaker 4: Diego here. I think if you back san Diego, you
1:06:42
Speaker 4: just pray that you get through Vazquez and then you
1:06:45
Speaker 4: get san Diego's bullpen somehow stealing the game for you're
1:06:49
Speaker 4: there and you're playing on the situation as well, you know,
1:06:53
Speaker 4: so you know that that would be the argument for
1:06:56
Speaker 4: playing San Diego on the run line. But the problem
1:06:58
Speaker 4: with that is it's not related to the game going over,
1:07:01
Speaker 4: and I like the over. If the game goes over,
1:07:04
Speaker 4: it's probably more likely it helps the Dodgers, you know,
1:07:07
Speaker 4: it helps the case for the Dodgers to cover a
1:07:09
Speaker 4: run line if the game is gonna go over. So
1:07:12
Speaker 4: but yeah, I think if you're gonna play the game,
1:07:13
Speaker 4: I think the over is the better way to play that.
1:07:16
Speaker 4: I would not try to play the side, dirty sock. Yeah,
1:07:19
Speaker 4: thanks for hanging out. What's up? All right? Yes? Okay,
1:07:24
Speaker 4: finally baseball, Baseball takes forever, man, Wnba. I'm not gonna
1:07:29
Speaker 4: have any plays here, So Wnba resumes after all these teams,
1:07:34
Speaker 4: except for the Cup teams the other day, but those
1:07:36
Speaker 4: teams don't play until tomorrow. All these teams have been
1:07:41
Speaker 4: off for an extended period of time. So you know
1:07:43
Speaker 4: what I talk about. When you have an extended break,
1:07:45
Speaker 4: I consider it to be like a bye. So I
1:07:47
Speaker 4: look to I look at like what was the team
1:07:50
Speaker 4: doing momentum wise? You know what I mean? So like,
1:07:52
Speaker 4: if the team was playing poorly and now and they
1:07:55
Speaker 4: had a break, I think the break helps them break
1:07:57
Speaker 4: out of that negative momentum. If the team was playing well,
1:08:01
Speaker 4: I like to look to fade that team coming out
1:08:03
Speaker 4: of a break because they think the break could stop
1:08:05
Speaker 4: their momentum. Now, the first game is Atlanta Washington. Washington
1:08:11
Speaker 4: had a crazy game in their last game. They had
1:08:13
Speaker 4: a four overtime win over Portland. That's crazy stuff, dude.
1:08:18
Speaker 4: But they've had a lot of time off since then.
1:08:20
Speaker 4: They haven't played since Sunday, So that's the thing. If
1:08:22
Speaker 4: they're playing on like regular rest and having to play
1:08:25
Speaker 4: again a couple of days later, they could be pretty
1:08:28
Speaker 4: tired and I'd be looking to fade them. But they've
1:08:30
Speaker 4: had extra time off, so that's gonna help them get
1:08:32
Speaker 4: over that. Four overtime game. They're staying at home, and
1:08:35
Speaker 4: they're not gonna overlook Atlanta. They got blown out by
1:08:39
Speaker 4: Atlanta on the road the other time they played Atlanta
1:08:41
Speaker 4: this year, so if anything, Atlanta might overlook them. But
1:08:45
Speaker 4: the problem with that thinking is Atlanta went into the
1:08:48
Speaker 4: break about as bad as possible. This is a good
1:08:52
Speaker 4: Atlanta team, and they went into the break on three
1:08:54
Speaker 4: straight losses. They lost at Golden State twice, and Golden
1:08:57
Speaker 4: State is a good team, dude. The Western is good,
1:09:00
Speaker 4: Golden State's very good at home, and I'm pissed we
1:09:03
Speaker 4: lost the second game. They're trying to zigzag it because
1:09:06
Speaker 4: I thought Atlanta was in a bad spot in the
1:09:08
Speaker 4: first game. They definitely could have won for us in
1:09:11
Speaker 4: that second game and it didn't happen. But then after
1:09:15
Speaker 4: that they were in like a hangover spot. They were
1:09:17
Speaker 4: in a really difficult spot. After that. They were playing
1:09:19
Speaker 4: a back to back and a third game in four days,
1:09:22
Speaker 4: in a fourth game in six days, and fifth and eight,
1:09:26
Speaker 4: and I think it was what is this. It was
1:09:28
Speaker 4: a sixth game in ten days, basically, so you don't
1:09:31
Speaker 4: usually see that in the WNBA. So Atlanta, obviously it
1:09:34
Speaker 4: was just fatigued and they lost to Seattle. I mean
1:09:38
Speaker 4: that is embarrassing. Seattle is a very bad team and
1:09:41
Speaker 4: Atlanta lost to them. That's not good. So that's the
1:09:44
Speaker 4: way they went into the break. Much much needed rest
1:09:47
Speaker 4: for Atlanta here. That was a team that was really fatigued.
1:09:50
Speaker 4: They went into the break on a really, really bad note.
1:09:53
Speaker 4: So I think Atlanta comes out of this focus, you
1:09:55
Speaker 4: know what I mean. They've traveled back to the Eastern
1:09:58
Speaker 4: Times and they've had plenty of time to get used
1:10:00
Speaker 4: the time zone again. I know they beat Washington once already,
1:10:03
Speaker 4: but they're also the better team and Atlanta is the
1:10:06
Speaker 4: better Both teams should be focused here, but you're getting
1:10:09
Speaker 4: Atlanta in the better spot. I mean, Washington did still
1:10:12
Speaker 4: go into that break on kind of an insane high
1:10:14
Speaker 4: note with a four overtime win, although I know it
1:10:18
Speaker 4: was only against Portland. Portland's not good, but still I
1:10:21
Speaker 4: think it sets up better for Atlanta because you're getting
1:10:24
Speaker 4: the better team who went into the break on an
1:10:26
Speaker 4: extremely negative note. I would lay the points with Atlanta
1:10:30
Speaker 4: if I was gonna play this one. The money isn't
1:10:33
Speaker 4: really indicating one way or the other. We have sixty
1:10:35
Speaker 4: two percent of the tickets and cash on Washington. Atlanta's
1:10:39
Speaker 4: laying six and a half, so they're below that key
1:10:41
Speaker 4: number seven here at most of these books. I think
1:10:44
Speaker 4: that's what I would do. I would lay Atlanta in
1:10:46
Speaker 4: that one, but I don't feel that strongly about it.
1:10:49
Speaker 4: Dallas at Connecticut this is a game that, on the
1:10:53
Speaker 4: surface at least looks like it should be a mismatch.
1:10:55
Speaker 4: Connecticut's bad. This game is on Amazon Prime. For what
1:10:59
Speaker 4: that's worth. Connecticut did actually win two games going into
1:11:02
Speaker 4: the break, which is half their wins on the season.
1:11:05
Speaker 4: There were two win team until their last two games,
1:11:07
Speaker 4: where they won at home against Chicago and Washington, and
1:11:11
Speaker 4: they won by double digits in both games, so you know,
1:11:14
Speaker 4: maybe Connecticut was getting some momentum going The problem is
1:11:19
Speaker 4: that momentum I just stall out because they haven't played
1:11:21
Speaker 4: since Friday, So I don't like that they've been on
1:11:23
Speaker 4: like a week break after they finally got some momentum.
1:11:27
Speaker 4: That could hurt Connecticut. Now that they don't have that
1:11:29
Speaker 4: momentum anymore, They're still probably not gonna overlook Dallas, though.
1:11:33
Speaker 4: Dallas is, you know, like basically the up and coming
1:11:36
Speaker 4: team in the WNBA. They're probably they're probably gonna make
1:11:39
Speaker 4: the playoffs. I think probably that would be for the
1:11:42
Speaker 4: first time. I think. I don't know. But Dallas, I mean,
1:11:44
Speaker 4: they're coming off some tough games too, Yes, they I
1:11:47
Speaker 4: mean some tough games, I should say, because Connecticut's games
1:11:51
Speaker 4: weren't tough, they just won them. Dallas is coming off
1:11:54
Speaker 4: playing some really difficult opponents Las Vegas on the road,
1:11:57
Speaker 4: and then they came home and lost to Minnesota in
1:12:00
Speaker 4: a return home spot that was difficult. Vegas and Minnesota
1:12:05
Speaker 4: pretty arguably the best two teams in this league. And
1:12:08
Speaker 4: I know Vegas lost, you know, the Commissioner's Cup, but
1:12:11
Speaker 4: you know Vegas was without Asia Wilson in that game. Whatever,
1:12:15
Speaker 4: Vegas and Minnesota are probably the best two teams in
1:12:17
Speaker 4: the league. And Minnesota's been doing this without Collier, who
1:12:21
Speaker 4: is maybe the best player in the entire league. So Dallas,
1:12:25
Speaker 4: they played some difficult opponents going into this break, but
1:12:28
Speaker 4: maybe having the break will still help them break that
1:12:31
Speaker 4: losing momentum. They're starting a road trip. They only play
1:12:35
Speaker 4: Toronto next, so it's not really a look ahead next.
1:12:37
Speaker 4: Their game after that is the big one against New York.
1:12:41
Speaker 4: I don't really know if Dallas is really gonna overlook this.
1:12:46
Speaker 4: I don't know. I don't have a good feel for this.
1:12:47
Speaker 4: Dallas is getting the money fifty tickets, ninety three percent
1:12:51
Speaker 4: of the cash on Dallas. This is the game I
1:12:53
Speaker 4: feel the least strongly about. But it's the game that
1:12:55
Speaker 4: has the strongest market read on the side, which is
1:12:58
Speaker 4: on Dallas laying the seven and a half for eight here.
1:13:01
Speaker 4: I don't know what to think about it. I don't
1:13:03
Speaker 4: have a strong opinion on this. I mean, if you're
1:13:05
Speaker 4: just looking at pure momentum, then Dallas does kind of
1:13:08
Speaker 4: make sense that they'd be able to break their losing
1:13:11
Speaker 4: momentum with having the break there. But again, they went
1:13:14
Speaker 4: into the break on some you know, playing some pretty
1:13:17
Speaker 4: difficult games. And then we have Seattle and Phoenix. And
1:13:20
Speaker 4: of course, like I said, Seattle went into the break
1:13:22
Speaker 4: on a high. They beat New York and Atlanta going
1:13:25
Speaker 4: into the break. Those are two huge upset wins. Now
1:13:29
Speaker 4: they're going to Phoenix. The thing is, yes, I think
1:13:33
Speaker 4: their momentum could be broken here. They could be in
1:13:36
Speaker 4: a letdown spot ouf of those huge wins. They haven't
1:13:38
Speaker 4: played since Saturday. Those are definitely some negatives for Seattle here.
1:13:43
Speaker 4: The problem is, Phoenix has some negatives here too, and
1:13:46
Speaker 4: one of them is that these teams playing on June
1:13:48
Speaker 4: twentieth in Phoenix, which is where they're playing tonight, and
1:13:51
Speaker 4: Phoenix won the game easily. Phoenix won by twenty and
1:13:56
Speaker 4: Phoenix is the better team. There's no question that Phoenix
1:13:59
Speaker 4: is the better team here. The thing is, Phoenix is
1:14:03
Speaker 4: not really in a particularly good spot here. Phoenixes are
1:14:05
Speaker 4: turning on from a road trip. They went to Indiana
1:14:09
Speaker 4: to play them twice and then went to Toronto, so
1:14:11
Speaker 4: they're coming all the way from Toronto back home. Now. Yes,
1:14:14
Speaker 4: they've had like half a week off here. They haven't
1:14:16
Speaker 4: played since Saturday, so that might help them get their
1:14:19
Speaker 4: stuff done at home, or it could do the opposite.
1:14:23
Speaker 4: Possibly it might get them more settled in at home,
1:14:26
Speaker 4: you know what I mean. And add to that distraction, like,
1:14:28
Speaker 4: do you really think they're gonna play that paid that
1:14:30
Speaker 4: much attention to Seattle. They just beat Seattle before that
1:14:34
Speaker 4: road trip, you know what I mean. That was literally
1:14:36
Speaker 4: the last time they played here at home. They beat
1:14:38
Speaker 4: this Seattle team. So I think they might take Seattle
1:14:41
Speaker 4: a little bit lightly. Although Phoenix doesn't have a big
1:14:43
Speaker 4: game up next against Chicago. But yeah, it's a negative
1:14:47
Speaker 4: spot for both teams. Phoenix's momentum might be hurt a
1:14:51
Speaker 4: little bit because they went into the break on a
1:14:53
Speaker 4: two game win streak, including beating Indiana, so they might
1:14:56
Speaker 4: have their momentum stalled a little bit too. This looks
1:14:59
Speaker 4: like a negative for both teams. And Phoenix has some
1:15:02
Speaker 4: injuries here. Because Phoenix was a six and a half
1:15:05
Speaker 4: way favorite, but last time they were at home against Seattle.
1:15:08
Speaker 4: Now they're only laying three and a half here, which
1:15:11
Speaker 4: does seem like kind of a bargain on Phoenix, And
1:15:14
Speaker 4: you know, the public doesn't really want to lay points
1:15:16
Speaker 4: with Phoenix, like a team like Phoenix at seven and thirteen,
1:15:19
Speaker 4: like their record's not good. But I have told you
1:15:21
Speaker 4: that Phoenix has played a pretty difficult schedule this year
1:15:24
Speaker 4: and they're definitely the better team over Seattle. Seattle's really
1:15:28
Speaker 4: really bad. But yeah, I think the most pertinent injury here,
1:15:35
Speaker 4: I don't know, is it Mac. I don't know. Mac
1:15:37
Speaker 4: is one of the better rebounders on the Mercury. Mac
1:15:41
Speaker 4: looks like a dude. Mac played in that last game
1:15:44
Speaker 4: against Seattle and then went down to injury during that
1:15:46
Speaker 4: road trip, so Mac you know, is one of the
1:15:50
Speaker 4: starters I think for Phoenix, so that might be an issue.
1:15:54
Speaker 4: And then I don't know who bro Shant is. Bro
1:15:58
Speaker 4: indicates that she's she doesn't look like a dude, though
1:16:02
Speaker 4: I don't think she's one of their more important players.
1:16:04
Speaker 4: But she's out too, so some things to consider. But
1:16:07
Speaker 4: I think it's the injuries that are leading to this
1:16:09
Speaker 4: line being shorter at minus three and a half here
1:16:13
Speaker 4: or minus three even on Phoenix. But if I was
1:16:16
Speaker 4: gonna play this game, I think I would actually lay
1:16:18
Speaker 4: the points. I think Seattle's both teams are in a
1:16:22
Speaker 4: negative and I think Seattle's spot is actually a little
1:16:24
Speaker 4: bit more negative than Phoenix, even though Phoenix is returning home.
1:16:28
Speaker 4: Plus I think Phoenix is just the better team. Eighty
1:16:31
Speaker 4: seven percent of tickets, ninety three percent of the cash
1:16:33
Speaker 4: on Phoenix laying the three and a half. And I
1:16:35
Speaker 4: know you don't want to just say, oh, this team
1:16:37
Speaker 4: is better and lay the points because obviously the odds
1:16:39
Speaker 4: makers know that too, but the public might not realize
1:16:44
Speaker 4: that there is kind of a gap between these two teams,
1:16:46
Speaker 4: you know, like Phoenix is not really one of the
1:16:48
Speaker 4: absolute bottom of the barrel teams. Here. Like, I think
1:16:51
Speaker 4: they're a bottom half team in the league, but they're
1:16:53
Speaker 4: not that bad, so that's what I think about that.
1:16:58
Speaker 4: Uh So, yeah, Phoenix is public with the money is
1:17:00
Speaker 4: kind of agreeing with them. And then we have soccer.
1:17:04
Speaker 4: First game up is the one afternoon match, which is
1:17:07
Speaker 4: in Englewood, California, So that's gonna be a noontime game
1:17:10
Speaker 4: on the West coast Spain in Austria. These games are
1:17:13
Speaker 4: all in Fox Fox one or Fox Sports one and Telemundo.
1:17:19
Speaker 4: Austria is not a very good team man, Spain. I
1:17:21
Speaker 4: would be shocked if Spain lost this match. Spain is
1:17:24
Speaker 4: minus three p forty on the three away line. They're
1:17:26
Speaker 4: probably like minus seven hundred to advance here. I have
1:17:30
Speaker 4: Spain in the final four in my bracket, as you
1:17:32
Speaker 4: guys probably saw when I did my bracket. I think
1:17:35
Speaker 4: most people probably do. I think pretty much everybody has
1:17:38
Speaker 4: this coming down to a Spain France battle. Here. Spain
1:17:42
Speaker 4: should not lose to Austria here. Spain, I know they
1:17:46
Speaker 4: didn't look that good against Uruguay in their last game,
1:17:49
Speaker 4: but Uruguay was not playing that well in the World
1:17:52
Speaker 4: Cup man, and I think Spain they just didn't give
1:17:55
Speaker 4: a shit about that game. Spain already had four points,
1:17:58
Speaker 4: so I think they pretty much already wrapped up up
1:18:00
Speaker 4: the I think they had already basically wrapped up the group.
1:18:04
Speaker 4: They did wind up getting a win anyway against Uruguay,
1:18:06
Speaker 4: but if you look at them the offensive numbers in
1:18:09
Speaker 4: that game, neither team put up any offense, which is
1:18:12
Speaker 4: really bad for Uruguay because they were the motive. They
1:18:15
Speaker 4: were the more motivated team there. I think Spain just
1:18:17
Speaker 4: kind of through the game almost. I think they just
1:18:20
Speaker 4: kind of look past it. So I want to put
1:18:22
Speaker 4: much weighte into that. I actually think you could argue
1:18:25
Speaker 4: Spain's kind of undervalued right now because Spain. Everybody remembers
1:18:29
Speaker 4: they had a draw with Cape Verde in the first
1:18:32
Speaker 4: game in the World Cup, which again I don't put
1:18:35
Speaker 4: much wade into that. If you look at the stats
1:18:36
Speaker 4: in that game, Spain dominated that game. I have no
1:18:39
Speaker 4: idea how they didn't win that game. Clearly they're way
1:18:43
Speaker 4: better than Cape Verde. So yeah, Spain is better than
1:18:46
Speaker 4: they've looked so far. They did have an easy win
1:18:48
Speaker 4: over so over Saudi Arabia, but nobody's gonna really pay
1:18:51
Speaker 4: attention to that. Yeah, KSA I think the Kingdom of
1:18:56
Speaker 4: Saudi Arabia. But yeah, Austria, dude, they have not been
1:18:59
Speaker 4: impressed in this World Cup pier. They beat Jordan. Jordan
1:19:04
Speaker 4: was one of the worst teams in this competition. Who cares.
1:19:07
Speaker 4: They did play somewhat reasonably well against Argentina. That was
1:19:11
Speaker 4: a one nothing game until Messi put in like a
1:19:15
Speaker 4: flute goal in stoppage time there, so they did play
1:19:18
Speaker 4: well there. But then Austria, if you remember the played
1:19:21
Speaker 4: against Algerian, Algeria really outplayed Austria if you'll get the
1:19:25
Speaker 4: stats in that game. Algeria was the better team in
1:19:28
Speaker 4: this game against Austria and Austria this is that crazy
1:19:31
Speaker 4: game where Algeria broke the tie with a stoppage time
1:19:34
Speaker 4: goal and then Austria scored with they added like an
1:19:39
Speaker 4: extra minute onto stoppage time. Stoppage time was supposed to
1:19:43
Speaker 4: be five minutes and Austria scored in the sixth minute
1:19:46
Speaker 4: of it to draw, which seemed rigged because that's what
1:19:49
Speaker 4: knocked Iran out of the tournament. So you could make
1:19:52
Speaker 4: the argument that it was rigged because this is the
1:19:55
Speaker 4: US and they're gonna rig everything against Iran while they're
1:19:58
Speaker 4: you know, basically trying to bomb the shit out of
1:20:01
Speaker 4: the country, which is not good. Obviously, don't want to
1:20:05
Speaker 4: get this channel nuked though, But if you look at
1:20:07
Speaker 4: the stats in this game, Algeria was better in this game.
1:20:11
Speaker 4: They had sixty five percent of the possession. Expected goals
1:20:14
Speaker 4: were kind of close one point sixty seven to one
1:20:16
Speaker 4: point four to nine. Algeria had more shots on goal
1:20:19
Speaker 4: though they were way better at, you know, possessing the ball,
1:20:23
Speaker 4: passing the ball, So I don't know that. To me,
1:20:25
Speaker 4: that doesn't look good for Austria, and they kind of
1:20:27
Speaker 4: fluked their way to that draw there. I think the
1:20:31
Speaker 4: better way to play this game is actually probably to
1:20:33
Speaker 4: go Spain over their team total, and Spain got us
1:20:35
Speaker 4: one of those I gave out that same play against
1:20:39
Speaker 4: Saudi Arabia, although of course Austria is better than Saudi Arabia.
1:20:43
Speaker 4: But let me look at this. Hold on, let me
1:20:46
Speaker 4: look at this. I'm looking at the public percentages here.
1:20:51
Speaker 4: Uh yeah, Spain is very public in this match, so
1:20:54
Speaker 4: you know, there might not be any value in playing
1:20:56
Speaker 4: Spain here, but you know, Spain over their team to
1:21:00
Speaker 4: it seems pretty tempting here. You can get over two
1:21:02
Speaker 4: and a half at plus money, which you know, I
1:21:07
Speaker 4: mean that just seems crazy. Spain over two and a
1:21:10
Speaker 4: half at plus one twenty. I mean, Austria has been
1:21:14
Speaker 4: giving up some goals here, man, right, Like, I know,
1:21:18
Speaker 4: they did hold Argentina into basically won in that whole game.
1:21:21
Speaker 4: They held Jordanto one, but that doesn't impress me, and
1:21:24
Speaker 4: then Algeria got three against them. I don't know, man,
1:21:27
Speaker 4: I think if I was gonna play this game, I
1:21:28
Speaker 4: would probably go Spain over their team total. Here, Spain
1:21:32
Speaker 4: to go over two and a half, but it seems
1:21:34
Speaker 4: way too easy, like how could you possibly be getting
1:21:37
Speaker 4: that at plus money? And then the total in this game.
1:21:39
Speaker 4: Usually when you have a lopside of match like this,
1:21:43
Speaker 4: usually the total is gonna be three and a half
1:21:45
Speaker 4: because the better team is expected to put up an
1:21:47
Speaker 4: extra goal basically, but that's not the case here, So
1:21:50
Speaker 4: that worries me. So I'm not gonna give on a
1:21:51
Speaker 4: play on this. But I think if I was gonna
1:21:53
Speaker 4: do it, I would go Spain over two and a half. Yeah, Croatia,
1:22:01
Speaker 4: these other two games are both competitive. Oh and by
1:22:04
Speaker 4: the way, I usually I mentioned the travel Spain is
1:22:07
Speaker 4: actually having to travel from Mexico up to California. They're
1:22:10
Speaker 4: in Austria's coming in from Kansas City, I believe so, so
1:22:14
Speaker 4: I'm gonna keep in mind there Portugal and Croatia. I
1:22:18
Speaker 4: believe Portugal is traveling in from Florida. Am I right
1:22:24
Speaker 4: about that? Yes, Portugal is coming in from Florida and
1:22:27
Speaker 4: they're coming off kind of an ugly match, a draw
1:22:30
Speaker 4: against Colombia. So that would be your argument to play
1:22:33
Speaker 4: on Portugal here is they look bad against Colombia with
1:22:35
Speaker 4: that draw. But one of the questions I would have
1:22:38
Speaker 4: is was that misleading? You know what I mean? And
1:22:42
Speaker 4: the answer is kind of or no, actually, no, it
1:22:47
Speaker 4: was not. Colombia outplayed Portugal in this game, like I
1:22:51
Speaker 4: don't know, Portugal might have already had the group. Actually
1:22:54
Speaker 4: Portugal did not have the group wrapped up because Colombia
1:22:57
Speaker 4: actually won the group. Colombia wound up with seven. It
1:23:00
Speaker 4: was seven points, Portugal only had five, So Portugal did
1:23:04
Speaker 4: have some motivation here. That's not a good sign for Portugal, dude.
1:23:08
Speaker 4: Colombia expected goals wise, Columbia outplayed them one point seven
1:23:12
Speaker 4: a point nine to three. Colombia won the possession battle
1:23:16
Speaker 4: they had three times as many shots on goal. That's
1:23:19
Speaker 4: not good for Portugal. They got outplayed by Colombia here, dude.
1:23:24
Speaker 4: Colombia is not bad, but yeah, port I think Portugal
1:23:28
Speaker 4: has some real issues here, dude. You know, I don't
1:23:30
Speaker 4: know if it's all the Ronaldo rumors. I don't know
1:23:33
Speaker 4: what's going on here with Portugal, but yeah, they seem
1:23:36
Speaker 4: to not be in the right mental state here. And
1:23:39
Speaker 4: if you look at what they've done otherwise in the
1:23:41
Speaker 4: World Cup, they beat Whu'zbekistan, who cares? And they had
1:23:44
Speaker 4: another draw with Dr Congo and it oh Dr Congo.
1:23:49
Speaker 4: They they had a one nothing lead early yesterday against England.
1:23:52
Speaker 4: Yeah whatever, They had a fluke goal at the nine
1:23:55
Speaker 4: minute mark against England. Did you seriously think England was
1:23:57
Speaker 4: gonna lose that match at that point? Because I didn't.
1:24:00
Speaker 4: I was saying like, I'm like, yeah, Dr Congo's not
1:24:04
Speaker 4: gonna score again in this match. England dominated that match yesterday.
1:24:08
Speaker 4: It was just a matter of England needed to get
1:24:10
Speaker 4: some of those to go into the net, and you
1:24:13
Speaker 4: know it was all Caane. But whatever. I don't think
1:24:16
Speaker 4: this is a good sign that Portugal had to draw
1:24:18
Speaker 4: against Dr Congo and against Colombia the Colombia is a
1:24:21
Speaker 4: reasonably competitive team, but it doesn't look good to me.
1:24:24
Speaker 4: The Portugal only managed like a good performance against Uzbekistan,
1:24:28
Speaker 4: who is really really bad, one of the worst teams
1:24:31
Speaker 4: in this thing. Croatia has been more impressive. I would
1:24:36
Speaker 4: say they lost to England and that was a tow
1:24:38
Speaker 4: two game into you know, into the second half. So
1:24:41
Speaker 4: they played pretty well. And England's a good defensive team,
1:24:44
Speaker 4: and Croatia put up two goals against them. That's pretty solid.
1:24:48
Speaker 4: And then Croatia, yeah, I mean, it looks like they
1:24:50
Speaker 4: kind of coasted against Panama, but whatever. I mean, they
1:24:53
Speaker 4: still beat them, and then they beat Ghana. Ghana's not bad,
1:24:57
Speaker 4: you know. I think Ghana did get eliminated. They're not played.
1:25:00
Speaker 4: I forget to Gana get eliminated. I don't remember. No,
1:25:06
Speaker 4: Ghana's playing Colombia. That's right, that's gonna be an interesting match, actually,
1:25:10
Speaker 4: I think that might be. I don't know when that
1:25:12
Speaker 4: match is, that's a yeah, it's gotta be tomorrow. Yeah,
1:25:17
Speaker 4: because Saturday Sunday the next round starts. Yeah, it's tomorrow. Anyway.
1:25:22
Speaker 4: I think Croatia they played the more difficult schedule here, dude,
1:25:26
Speaker 4: you know, like Portugal got d R Congo and who's Bekistan.
1:25:30
Speaker 4: Those are really easy opponents, and then they got Colombia.
1:25:33
Speaker 4: Croatia played in England, which is more difficult than any
1:25:36
Speaker 4: of those teams. And then Ghana's not that bad either.
1:25:39
Speaker 4: So yeah, and Croatia, by the way, I believe they're
1:25:42
Speaker 4: staying in Toronto for this too, so they have a
1:25:45
Speaker 4: location advantage here. Oh no, they're coming up from Philadelphia. Sorry,
1:25:49
Speaker 4: I'm getting it all confused. Yeah, Croatia is coming up
1:25:52
Speaker 4: from Philadelphia. Portugal's coming up from Miami. So Croatia has
1:25:56
Speaker 4: a little bit of an edge here. So yes, I'm
1:25:58
Speaker 4: making a case for Croatia in this game of Croatia
1:26:01
Speaker 4: does have you know, they do have experience. I mean
1:26:04
Speaker 4: they've made runs in this World Cup before, even though
1:26:06
Speaker 4: I think they're not as good right now, and mode
1:26:08
Speaker 4: Rich as an old man old Rich. But whatever, Portugal's
1:26:12
Speaker 4: minus won forty here. I think there's something not right
1:26:15
Speaker 4: with Portugal. I think Portugal is gonna be the public
1:26:17
Speaker 4: side here, and in fact, I actually I looked and
1:26:20
Speaker 4: as far as the sides are concerned, Portugal is the
1:26:23
Speaker 4: most public side as far as the fact that the
1:26:26
Speaker 4: money is coming in against where the public is like,
1:26:29
Speaker 4: it looks pretty easy to lay minus one forty on
1:26:31
Speaker 4: the three away with Portugal. I think I would not
1:26:34
Speaker 4: do that. I think I would go Croatia wind draw
1:26:37
Speaker 4: on the three away, which, as I keep reminding you
1:26:40
Speaker 4: of these three away lines and the most of the
1:26:44
Speaker 4: normal ways to play these games, it's only in the
1:26:46
Speaker 4: first ninety minutes. So if the game goes into extra
1:26:49
Speaker 4: time or penalty and penalty and or penalty kicks, none
1:26:52
Speaker 4: of that counts in that bet. So you're betting the
1:26:54
Speaker 4: first ninety minutes here. But my recommendation in this game
1:26:58
Speaker 4: is Croatia winn or draw or plus a half goal,
1:27:01
Speaker 4: whichever one you can get the better number on in
1:27:04
Speaker 4: the first ninety minutes. So like the regular line, that's
1:27:10
Speaker 4: the way I would play that. I like Croatia in
1:27:12
Speaker 4: that one. And then Switzerland and Algeria is the late
1:27:15
Speaker 4: game in Vancouver. Switzerland, I think, is the team. It's
1:27:18
Speaker 4: staying in literally the same venue. Yeah, Switzerland is staying
1:27:21
Speaker 4: in Vancouver. Switzerland beat Canada in their last game in Canada.
1:27:27
Speaker 4: They beat Canada. Now I don't think Canada is that good,
1:27:30
Speaker 4: although I know they're still live in this tournament, but
1:27:32
Speaker 4: that's because they had a weak opponent and they barely
1:27:35
Speaker 4: beat them. In the first round of the knockout. Here,
1:27:38
Speaker 4: Switzerland dominated Bosnia, but they're not good either, and they
1:27:42
Speaker 4: drew with Cutter. So yeah, Switzerland hasn't looked that good
1:27:46
Speaker 4: man Like, They've faced a pretty easy schedule. They were
1:27:49
Speaker 4: in an easy group, but Algeria is not that dominant.
1:27:53
Speaker 4: Although I did say Algeria did play well against Austria,
1:27:57
Speaker 4: like they were better than their they were better than
1:28:00
Speaker 4: the final score looked against Austria. Algeria beat Jordan, which
1:28:04
Speaker 4: nobody cares about that, and they did lose to Argentina,
1:28:07
Speaker 4: but that was also expected. So it's kind of hard
1:28:09
Speaker 4: to figure out what Algeria really is here. Like, I
1:28:13
Speaker 4: think Switzerland is the better of these two teams. The
1:28:16
Speaker 4: line is pretty close. Switzerland is plus one hundred on
1:28:19
Speaker 4: the three away so yeah, Switzerland is considered to be
1:28:22
Speaker 4: the better team here. I did pick them to advance
1:28:25
Speaker 4: through this round in my bracket. It's close Switzerland. You know,
1:28:29
Speaker 4: maybe they're getting overlooked a little bit here. They're staying
1:28:31
Speaker 4: in Vancouver. You know, the public might want Algeria because
1:28:36
Speaker 4: Algeria did you know, I went to the mlbam Algeria
1:28:39
Speaker 4: is you know, Algeria put up a bunch of goals
1:28:42
Speaker 4: in that last game, and everybody remembers that and they
1:28:44
Speaker 4: might think, well, you know, Algeria looked really good and
1:28:47
Speaker 4: putting up three goals there. Switzerland whatever, I don't know
1:28:51
Speaker 4: if Switzerland's gonna get that much credit for beating Canada
1:28:54
Speaker 4: one zero one nil. I slightly lean Switzerland here, but
1:29:01
Speaker 4: I don't have a too strong of an opinion, and
1:29:03
Speaker 4: that I think the money is slightly agree with me
1:29:05
Speaker 4: on that. You know, I just think they're the slightly
1:29:07
Speaker 4: better team, and I think it'll help that they're staying
1:29:09
Speaker 4: in the same venue. But Algeria's face faced more difficult
1:29:14
Speaker 4: competition though in the World Cups, so Algeria is a
1:29:17
Speaker 4: little bit more battle tested, so that would worry me
1:29:21
Speaker 4: a little bit. But yeah, I think if I was
1:29:22
Speaker 4: gonna play any of these, I like Croatia the best, actually,
1:29:25
Speaker 4: even though I do have Portugal winning that one game
1:29:27
Speaker 4: in my bracket and then I think I have them
1:29:28
Speaker 4: losing to Spain in the next round. But whichever team
1:29:33
Speaker 4: wins that game, I think Spain will handle them. But
1:29:36
Speaker 4: assuming Spain wins today, which obviously I think they will.
1:29:39
Speaker 4: But yeah, I think Croatia plus that half goal or
1:29:42
Speaker 4: the wind draw makes the most sense that what's the
1:29:45
Speaker 4: let me see what the number is on that Action
1:29:48
Speaker 4: network doesn't have the wind draw, they only have the
1:29:51
Speaker 4: half goal. But let me say, yeah, this is the
1:29:54
Speaker 4: game that looks like it's the most like the best
1:29:57
Speaker 4: market read is on Croatia. And I also happen to
1:29:59
Speaker 4: agree with that. You can get Croatia plus a half
1:30:03
Speaker 4: goal at plus one twenty at DK. That's to me,
1:30:07
Speaker 4: that doesn't seem like a bad option. Really, yes, And
1:30:14
Speaker 4: then I see there are some guys playing I see
1:30:16
Speaker 4: the the Croatia winner draws at plus one ten. I
1:30:20
Speaker 4: see some guys on that too, But I see I
1:30:24
Speaker 4: see some guys playing Portugal on the three way line
1:30:27
Speaker 4: as well. It's interesting, But I like Croatia in that one.
1:30:32
Speaker 4: I'm not gonna quite get there with it. I think
1:30:34
Speaker 4: I'm gonna have more plays in the in the next
1:30:36
Speaker 4: round of just because you want to fade what happened
1:30:39
Speaker 4: in the first round. That's how I do things. I
1:30:41
Speaker 4: might have a play tomorrow. Looking at what these matchups
1:30:44
Speaker 4: are tomorrow, I'm considering one of these games for a
1:30:46
Speaker 4: play tomorrow. You might know what it is if you
1:30:49
Speaker 4: see if you've seen me talking. We'll see if I
1:30:52
Speaker 4: do it or not. But I might get screwed again
1:30:54
Speaker 4: because you know, I've only played one game in the
1:30:56
Speaker 4: knockout round. It was a loss after I was five
1:30:59
Speaker 4: and one in the group stage. I'm definitely treading a
1:31:01
Speaker 4: little bit carefully. And yes, I'm pissed I should have
1:31:04
Speaker 4: played in Mexico. I'm probably gonna be saying when when
1:31:06
Speaker 4: Croatia gets the wind draw done. I know I'm gonna
1:31:09
Speaker 4: be saying that as well today. But I'm trying with baseball.
1:31:13
Speaker 4: Baseball has been ice cold recently. It's been real bad
1:31:16
Speaker 4: after you know. I mean, it's still been a good
1:31:18
Speaker 4: season in baseball, but I told you July August is
1:31:21
Speaker 4: some of my worst baseball, so paying no attention to me.
1:31:24
Speaker 4: We have two plays first five hundred three and a
1:31:26
Speaker 4: half Red's Brewers. It's one of those ones that seems
1:31:29
Speaker 4: way too obvious, though, so I'm worried about that. And
1:31:32
Speaker 4: then we were on the full game under in Tigers Rangers,
1:31:36
Speaker 4: which at least that one seems a little bit less
1:31:38
Speaker 4: obvious of a play. But it seems like a play
1:31:40
Speaker 4: that it seems like a game where I would play
1:31:42
Speaker 4: the under and I am that's gonna do it. Learn
1:31:45
Speaker 4: a tone on Twitter, learn a tone on Instagram, Like
1:31:47
Speaker 4: subscribe close to five hundred here on YouTube, man, so
1:31:50
Speaker 4: let's get it going. Let's finally hit. It seems like
1:31:54
Speaker 4: we go up and down with these numbers. I don't
1:31:56
Speaker 4: know what's going on with people subscribing and unsubscribing to me.
1:31:59
Speaker 4: I think it's some of those people that are like
1:32:01
Speaker 4: trying to promote their own shit and whatever, and then
1:32:03
Speaker 4: they subscribe to me, and then I don't respond to
1:32:05
Speaker 4: them and they unsubscribe. Dude, just stay subscribed to me, man,
1:32:09
Speaker 4: what's the harm. I'll listen on an audio Apple, Spotify,
1:32:12
Speaker 4: spreaker covered in yuke on YouTube my yuke channel. My
1:32:17
Speaker 4: voice has not been, you know, good at all, so unfortunately,
1:32:21
Speaker 4: I don't know what else to do. I've put out
1:32:24
Speaker 4: a couple of non vocally challenging songs recently, although one
1:32:28
Speaker 4: was lover Boy, which is a little bit more difficult.
1:32:31
Speaker 4: I had a little bit of a voice then, so
1:32:33
Speaker 4: I haven't put them up on YouTube yet. I gotta
1:32:34
Speaker 4: do that, and then Patreon dot com slash learn to
1:32:36
Speaker 4: toad if you want to support me that way, But
1:32:38
Speaker 4: you're really just supporting me because you like my content,
1:32:41
Speaker 4: and the money, you know, basically goes back into making
1:32:45
Speaker 4: more content because I do pay money for some of
1:32:47
Speaker 4: these products and whatever. So yeah, it does help me
1:32:50
Speaker 4: out in that way. I'm not necessary I'm not necessarily
1:32:53
Speaker 4: gambling it away, you know what I mean. Money, money's pongeible.
1:32:57
Speaker 4: I need money to live, you know, to do the
1:32:59
Speaker 4: things that I do here on the channel, not just
1:33:02
Speaker 4: the betting. I mean to create the show. Loser Cast
1:33:05
Speaker 4: was on a Monday again this week. I think we'll
1:33:07
Speaker 4: be back to Tuesday next week, but go check that out.
1:33:10
Speaker 4: It was another pretty fun episode this week. And the
1:33:13
Speaker 4: New York Giants Geez podcast should return at some point.
1:33:17
Speaker 4: That's gonna do it, you know. At some point we'll
1:33:20
Speaker 4: have some football preview shows. I mean, I already did
1:33:23
Speaker 4: kind of an NFL preview, but maybe I'll do another
1:33:25
Speaker 4: one closer to the NFL season because I think things
1:33:29
Speaker 4: are gonna change, so I don't know, I might change
1:33:31
Speaker 4: some of the things that I did in those ESPN
1:33:33
Speaker 4: games there, I don't really know. And I'll do a
1:33:37
Speaker 4: college football preview as well, But I really don't know
1:33:39
Speaker 4: too much about the landscape and college and I know
1:33:42
Speaker 4: there are new conferences and conference realignments and it's all
1:33:45
Speaker 4: just ridiculous. So I don't know. But basically I talk
1:33:49
Speaker 4: about like the turnover rate and not turn not fumbles
1:33:53
Speaker 4: and interceptions. I mean like continuity, like how many players
1:33:57
Speaker 4: are coming back for a certain team which is getting
1:33:59
Speaker 4: less last because of the transfer portal. But maybe I'll
1:34:02
Speaker 4: do a college football preview. I did one last year,
1:34:04
Speaker 4: and I don't think I you know, I don't think
1:34:06
Speaker 4: my predictions were great, but whatever, you know, it's just
1:34:10
Speaker 4: something to talk about. That's gonna do it for now. Peace,
1:34:15
Speaker 4: But don't you go quiet.
1:34:17
Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the flow.
1:34:19
Speaker 3: Your name still means something to somebody for show. Put
1:34:23
Speaker 3: the glass down, baby, look at me.
1:34:28
Speaker 1: No hold on, hold on nothing, no.
1:34:39
Speaker 2: Hold on, load on. Let me for that bites, but
1:34:52
Speaker 2: it don't get the crown. Hold on, hold on, play
1:35:00
Speaker 2: with me now,