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NCAAF Week 11 Best Bets · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Own seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all all in
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: four that have not had a good season. Man with
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: wookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: my browins hat Man, I don't know what is going
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: on with the Bruins. March Hape, is that what it is?
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day it
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: is anymore. I don't even know what day it is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: possibly have with you, as I always am until I
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: die at least oh and two yesterday and yesterday did
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: not go well for me. Own five the worst month
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore. Slump,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, road,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: It's towed back with you for Better Off Dead College
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Football Edition, Week eleven. Yeah, this is gonna suck. Obviously,
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: I suck. Life sucks, everything sucks. My headphone sucks, so
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna use them. This hoodie obviously sucks. Uh,
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: go follow the djen weekly this. This is his hoodie,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: not his personally smell it smell his musque all over me. No,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: he's solid, dude. He follows me, so I appreciate that
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: he is a degenerate gambler. Obviously, can go follow him.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: He's pretty funny. Unfortunately he is a Notre Dame football fan, though,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: so boom you could boom me because my picks were
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: fucking horrible today two and six. I told you there
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: was gonna be some regression. Some of them were legitimately bad,
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: some of them were bullshit losses a firman. I mean
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: they got off to a terrible start. What can you do?
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: They got close later in the game, they just couldn't
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: get it done. That one, I mean, I don't want
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: to say it was necessarily wrong or right. I mean
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: it was close statistically, So that one is just I
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: don't know, kind of one that fell the wrong way.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: College basketball are talking about Georgia Tech. We got an
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: easy win, blowout win on Georgia Tech. The market read
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: actually flipped and went completely well, there's like no market read.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Early in the day, you can see where the line moved,
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: but other than that, you don't know where the percentages
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: are gonna be until later in the day. So it's
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: almost like I'm like kind of blind market reading when
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to just read the situations. So I don't
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: know what the fuck I want to do, Like if
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: I want to not give out like college basketball games
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: in the morning, I mean, I don't know. I mean,
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: this is the way that I've always done it though,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: but I'm relying on the situations. Then Oregon, I mean,
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: I think they just barely won that game. So but
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: that game, if you look at what happened in the game,
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Oregon had a horrific shooting game in that game. I
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: don't know what the hell that was, so, I mean
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: that one seems a little bit bullshitty to me. We
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: got to win on the New York Rangers, which I
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: think was legitimate, so I'll take that one. I think
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: it was a fairly close game. I'll dig into the
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: box score again. That was a win. New York Islanders
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: that was a loss. I will say that that game
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: was at least closer than the than the score made
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: it look. Statistically, it was a close game. The money
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: came in on the Islander side like that game was
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: up to like minus one fifty on the money line
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: by the time the game went off. So when it
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: gets into that range, I usually recommend playing them to
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: win in regulation, just to get the price down. You
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: would have lost that anyway, but you would have lost
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: less money, So that's my recommendation there. NBA, I seriously
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: think we should have had two NBA wins out of
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: the three, and instead we went own three. The NBA
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: was obviously the worst part of the night, not even close.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Washington never should have been a play. I apologize for that.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: They fucking suck, Yeah, I mean they haven't been competitive enough.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: I mean they looked competitive in a couple of games,
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: but I shouldn't have done it. The other two should
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: have probably been wins though, the Atlanta Hawks and the
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Charlotte Hornets. They both won the rebounding battle, I think
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: somewhat substantially as well, and they both looked like they
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: were gonna have shots to do it and neither happened.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: The money kind of looked like it came in against
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: the Atlanta side as far as the cash percentage, but
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: the line moved towards them. I do think there was
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: some actual money on Atlanta, and again, I think that
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: was kind of a bullshit loss if you look at
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: it statistically. They shot horribly in that game, just like
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: an out complete outlier, and they were up against like
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: a really high three point percentage on the other side,
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: and the same thing happened in the Charlotte game. Charlotte,
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: by the way, that number moved up like you could
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: have gotten plus seven on that when the game went off,
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: although it wound up not even mattering that one. I
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: didn't really expect to move up like that really though.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: I don't think there were any like injuries that came
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: into play really to move that. I don't know why
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: that line moved as much as it did. Didn't really
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: expect that, So I assume most people probably were somewhere
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: between five to six on that whatever seven key number
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: in basketball. But in this case, dude, they were in
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: that game in the fourth quarter too, Like it was
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: a yeah, they were within that spread, I think in
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, and then still didn't get it done
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: in that game. Horrible shooting percentage for Charlotte in that game,
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: and I think there was a just a ridiculous three
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: point percentage on the other side again on Miam. I
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: think Charlotte dominated the reboundszon in that game, which is
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: the most predictable stat and the thing that is the
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: best predictor. So I'm pretty pissed. I think Charlotte Charlotte,
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: like the market. Reid was all good on that one too.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: It looked like the actual money came in on that side.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: I thought that was the best of the three. I
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: thought that was a great situational play there. I mean,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: you can't win them all, but I'm fucking pissed Charlotte
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: and Atlanta. I think both should have been wins. Like
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know, I mean, I'm still up in the
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: NBA this season, but ohn three, that doesn't happen often
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: for me in NBA. Dirty sock, what's up man? Thank
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: you sir? Yeah, the Rangers won. That's not gonna save me. Yeah,
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: I'm Today is one of those days where I'm like
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: about to jump off a fucking bridge. Let's go into
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: college football. I don't want the show to run long here.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: It seems like it's a little bit of a smaller
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: college football board here. And I also have this Tulane
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: Memphis game. I think I have it on on ESPN
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: right now. Tulane was blowing them out of the building,
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: and now all of a sudden, it's like a close game.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: I think Tulane is still gonna wind up covering, which
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: was my lean in the game. But it's like it's
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: getting like really crazy late in the game. All right,
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: let's talk about all these games tomorrow, you know me,
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: I talk about basically all the ranked matchups. I'm gonna
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: try to give opinions on basically all of them. Fox
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: at noon, we do have Indiana, number two in the country,
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: undefeated against Penn State, who obviously have been completely off
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: the rails and still don't even have a win in
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: the Big Ten. But I will say that when you
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: have a team like Penn State and they know their
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: season is over and whatever, one of the types of
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: games they will try to get up for is a
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: game like this, Like this is gonna be like their
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: last home game. I think it gets a really big opponent,
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: so I expect them to show up whether or not
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: they can actually do anything and hang within this within
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: this number. It's kind of a different Indiana. They basically
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: have to keep winning because I think they don't actually
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: even face Ohio State during the regular season. They just
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: got to keep winning. I mean, they're on defeat it
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: right now. They want to make sure that they get
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: into the Big Ten title game obviously and make sure
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: that they get a playoff bid. So this is basically
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: their last remaining big game as well. So I'm not
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: really jumping out of my seat to fade Indiana here either,
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: because I expect both teams are gonna show up for
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: this game. So then it just becomes a matter of
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: there's probably like a little bit of line value taking
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: the points with Penn State, just because they've looked so
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: bad recently. At some point you got to think they're
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: gonna step it up a little bit. I mean they're
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: backup quarterback here, grunk Meyer, who had to come in
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: because Aler got hurt. I mean, he seems to be
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: improving a little bit. At least he's got a couple
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: of games under his belt. Now. I didn't think Aler
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: was any good anyway. So I mean with Penn State,
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: you're kind of relying on them to play defense, probably
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: run the football a bit. Can they should come within
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: this number? I don't know. I would slightly lean to
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: taking the points in my opinion. The number has gone
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: up on Indiana from thirteen to fourteen and a half,
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: eighty one percent of the tickets, eighty five percent of
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: the cash on them. They're looking like they get they're
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: getting some of the cash right now. But I think
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: maybe some of the money might have just been intentionally
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: trying to drive the lineup to fourteen and a half
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: just to get extra line value, get through the key
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: number there, because it was close to the key number
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: where the real move might wind up coming back in
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: on the Penn State side. But I don't know. I
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: don't know for sure if that's what's gonna happen. I
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: don't like it, really, so I'm gonna stay away, but
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: slightly in to taking the points, just because I think
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: that that's where the value is gonna be. And nobody's
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: going to expect anything out of Penn State. And you
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: know me, I go contrariyan unless I have unless I
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: have a reason to not do so. Also at noon
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: ESPN number five one loss Georgia against Mississippi State. Now
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State sitting at five wins, and they don't have
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: an easy remaining schedule, but you got to think that
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: these games are gonna matter to Mississippi State because this
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: is a team that they have not made a bowl
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: since I believe twenty twenty two. So Mississippi State making
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: a bowl again and they need one more win to
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: do that. That would be a big deal for them.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: And they don't play any cupcakes. They got a home
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: game here against Georgia, they have to go on the
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: road to Missouri and then they host Ole Miss to
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: finish the season. So yeah, I mean, this is gonna
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: be the most difficult of those remaining games, probably the
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: least likely for them to win, but they could potentially
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: do it. They beat me last week. Unfortunately, Arkansas looked
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: like they were gonna have the win and cover. In
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: that game, They're up multiple scores in the fourth quarter
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: and implode and blew that game. Very unfortunate. But what
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: that did form Mississippi State is it ended a lost
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: streak for them. I think they're gonna show up though,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: because this is a home game. When ESPN against Georgia,
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: I think you're gonna get a good effort at least
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: out of Mississippi State here. So the question is gonna
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: be can they hang with Georgia, And I think they
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: might be able to. I mean, Mississippi State, you've seen well.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: I'm also going to show that. I think Georgia is
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: in a bad spot, but I'll show that in a minute.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State, I mean the minimal to hang with some
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: of these teams. They beat Arizona State at home, although
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: Arizona State wasn't really deserving of being the twelfth ranked
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: team in the country. On Mississippi State took Tennessee to
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: overtime at home. They took Texas to overtime at home.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: So its Mississippi State team. I mean, they're not easy
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: to beat at home. And they got the cow bells
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: going off, you know in the stands, everybody rings cow
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: bells at Mississippi State Georgia. I don't think they're that
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: great of a spot here really, because they're coming off
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: that big rivalry game, the world's largest backyard cocktail party,
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: or whatever the hell it's called. You're not allowed to
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: call it the cocktail party anymore, but whatever. I don't
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: even know what it's called now because everybody still calls
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: it that, so they renamed it, but nobody even knows
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: what the name of it is. That was a big game.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: It was probably a little bit bigger for Florida, though,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: so I mean, you could argue that maybe because Georgia
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: was favored and didn't cover, which was a win. My
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: only win last week was the Florida cover. There, you
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: could argue that maybe Georgia wasn't totally paying attention and
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: that they will bounce back. But I don't know, because
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: that's a big rivalry game. Both teams usually get up
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: for that game, and Georgia does have Texas looming up next,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: so that's a big game as well. I think it
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: is possible they overlook Mississippi State here, and Georgia has
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: only played two road games all season, and they were close.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: They had to go to overtime against Tennessee and then
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Auburn kind of got screwed by the refs in that one.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: As I remember, I gave out Auburn plus the points
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: in that one, and they were within three points late
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: in the game. Auburn was about to take a seventeen
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: to nothing lead in that game towards the end of
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: the first half, and they got screwed out of a touchdown.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: So Georgia, they haven't been quite as good on the road.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: I know, Mississippi State is the least of all those teams.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State is actually not as good as Auburn in
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: my opinion, or certainly they're not as good as Tennessee.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: But Georgia looks like they're in a bit of a
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: sandwich spot. Yeah, I don't think there was good on
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: the road, So I'll lean to Mississippi State. And this one,
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: the money looks like it's not agree with that right now.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: This one, I was considering making it a play, but
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: it's it's not going to be. The money for what
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: it's worth looks like it's disagreeing with May fifty percent
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: of the take at sixty five percent of the cash
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: on Georgia up from seven and a half to nine
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: and a half. I don't know if this thing is
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: going to hit ten, although if it hits ten, that's
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: another key number and a little bit more value I
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: think on the Mississippi State side, if you do like it, yeah,
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: not going to be a play for me, though BYU
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: in Texas Tech will wind up being a play for me,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: so I'll skip that for now. Skip it even to
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: the one PM slate. Number one undefeated Ohio State I
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: think is indeed legitimately the number one team in the country,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: whereas I don't really think Indiana is actually the second
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: best team. By the way, I think they're probably a
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: top five ish team. I think there are a few
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: teams that are better than them, though, including Ohio State,
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: who I think is a legitimate number one team. Their
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: only question mark really is that they have an inexperienced quarterback.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: But they've been rolling obviously. They haven't based a particularly
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: difficult schedule, though. They're coming off blowing out Penn State,
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: which has got to be at least satisfying, even though
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: Penn State is having a down year. That's usually a
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: big game. Now Ohio State's going on the road to
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: Purdue Ohio State really hasn't been terrible on the road
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: by any means, so I don't know. I mean, they
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: should be able to handle Purdue because produce sucks, But
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: of course Ohio State is gonna be laying a ton
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: of points here. Purdue, I mean, they're not going anywhere.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: Even if they win out, which is not gonna happen either,
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: they still wouldn't even make a bowl. So at the
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: very least, what you could say is that Purdue, if
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: they're gonna show up for any games at this point,
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be games like this against Ohio State. But
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: Purdue did have one of those games last week and
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: they actually only lost by five to Michigan. So then
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: you gotta kind of expect Purdue. If you want Purdue here,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: you gotta expect them to be able to put in
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: a big effort two games in a row. Can they?
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: I'm not so sure. Looks like a little bit of
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: a difficult spot to me for Purdue. Ohio State is
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: laying a ton of points though, So I mean, if
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: you if you like Ohio State, they're gonna have to
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: basically like keep their foot on the gas the whole time,
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: and they might not do that because Ohio State at
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: this point, I mean, yeah, they're trying to make sure
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: they make the Big Ten title game. They're trying to
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: run the table, but they don't really need style points,
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: so this might be a game where they can kind
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: of get in get out. They don't really need to
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: cover the number here, So that's kind of the danger
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: if you want to lay the points of Ohio State.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: They're up from twenty eight and a half to twenty
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: nine and a half, huge number, seventy nine percent of tickets,
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: eighty percent of the cash on them. Looks like the
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: money's kind of coming into Ohio State right now. I mean,
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: this one, it's hard. It's hard to even form an
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: opinion on this one. Really. The spot looks worse to
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: me for Purdue though, although I guess you could argue
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: Ohio States just kind of feeling oversatisfied over confident after
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: the win over Penn State. I don't know, so I
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: can kind of see that argument, I guess. I mean,
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: my tendency would be to take the points though, just
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: because that's the way that I do it, Like I
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: tend to want to fade big public favorites like that,
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: and the other thing I guess if you do want
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: to take the points, is that it is a low
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: total at forty eight and a half, so expecting a
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: team to win by thirty when the totals forty eight
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: and a half is a little bit more difficult. Although
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: it is certainly possible that Purdue winds up not even
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: scoring in the game because they're that bad, So we
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: will say, yeah, I mean, I'm not gonna talk about
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: the ole Miss Citadel game. There's not even a line
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: on it. I don't think so whatever ole Miss is
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: one of those teams they get this weird cupcake game
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: late in the season Texas A and m Missouri. I'm
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: gonna give it a play on that, So I'll wait.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: CBS three point thirty, we have number nine, one loss
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: Oregon against number twenty Iowa, who is a one loss
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: Big Ten team. So this is interesting, man, there's like
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: an outside chance that Iowa can actually make the Big
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: Ten title game. Probably not gonna happen because right now
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: you'd need somehow you'd need Ohio State or Indiana to
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: slip up. At the very least, you'd probably need both
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: to do that. And whatever I think, Well, Iowa because
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: they lost head to head to Indiana. I think they
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: can't overtake Indiana, and same with Oregon, so it gets Yeah,
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: it's pretty unlikely that these teams are gonna make the
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: conference championship. But it's a little strange Oregon. I'm probably
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: still trying to make the college football playoff at this point.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: Iowa probably doesn't have a shot at that, but I
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: guess you could argue that maybe if they win this game,
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: maybe there is kind of an outside shot that they could.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: But either way, I think it's a big game. I
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: think both teams are gonna show up for it. Number
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: nine against number twenty. Both of these teams actually play
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: good defense, So Oregon kind of under the radar defensively
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: because I haven't really thought that their defense has been
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: good like last year. I didn't think it was that good.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: This year, it's definitely improved. Iowa, we know very good defense,
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: and that remains the case. I don't really see a
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: huge situational angle here. Oregon is coming out of a
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: bye and they went into the by on a win streak,
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: so I do talk about that when a team goes
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: into a bye and a win streak, it can kind
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: of disrupt their momentum and they can come out a
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: little bit shaky, a little bit cold. So that is
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: a spot for Oregon here. They are having to go
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: on the road, although it hasn't really been an issue
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: for them, as they did blow out Northwestern, they beat
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: Penn State on the road as well, and they blew
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: out Rutgers big time on the road. Although Iowa is
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: probably actually at this point better than all three of
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: those teams, including Penn State, So this is going to
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: be a difficult one on the road at Iowa against
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: that defense laying points against them, that's not easy. Iowa.
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: I believe they had a buy as well. Yeah, Iowa
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: went into a buye as well, and they went into
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: a buy in a three game win streak, so they
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: went into a buy at a bad time as well.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: So both teams went into the buy in a good note.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: So it could be a little bit of a momentum disruptor.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: Although Iowa went in on a more convincing win as
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: a crush Minnesota, Oregon just kind of had an easy,
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: not great looking win, really a low scoring win against
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin going into the buy. So I guess you could
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: argue maybe the buye helps Oregon a little bit more
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: for that reason, but I still think it's gonna kind
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: of be a momentum stopper for both teams that can
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: kind of just negate itself. So then all that being said,
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, I kind of just wind up defaulting to
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: an anti public home underdog that I think just plays defense,
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: and that is Iowa. Here, I would probably still make
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: the argument that Iowa is the better of these two
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: teams defensively, even though they're both actually good defensively. Oregon's
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: up to a six and a half point favorite from
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: a five point favorite, with fifty four percent of the
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: ticket as of right now on this website, at least
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: sixty two percent of the cash though on Iowa. So
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: money's coming in on Iowa, and the total has crashed
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: down from forty five to forty one and a half.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: So if you like the under, you've missed some value there.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, you can still get it under forty one
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: and a half, maybe even forty two. Forty one is
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: a key number, so if you like the under, you
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: could maybe start looking towards that. I mean, I don't
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: hate the under in this one. I do think it
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: might be a surprisingly low scoring game because both teams
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: actually do play deepfense, and it might be kind of
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: a playoff type of atmosphere here. And in a game
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: where points are at a premium like that, that also
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: makes me want to lean towards taking the points. So
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: I will lean to taking the points of Iowa here.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: Not a play for me. I don't really see a
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: situational angle here. The cash is coming in on Iowa
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: for what it's worth. The money, it looks like it's
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: agreeing with it. The public probably doesn't think that's gonna
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: that's gonna happen, So that is that is my opinion
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: in that game. Though, also three point thirty Eastern ESPN Syracuse,
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: who was not going anywhere up against Miami, who's number
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: eighteen in the country. For Syracuse, I mean, they're not
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: going anywhere, but you gotta think this is gonna be
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: one of their bigger games remaining. I mean, they do
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: have Notre Dame up next, which is a big game
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: as well, but they do have a buye between these two.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: So a game at Miami, Syracuse is probably gonna get
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: up for it at the very least, a Syracuse team
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: that's very likely to not make a Bowl this time
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: is they would need to win out and that's not
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: gonna happen. They're not gonna win on the road at
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: Miami and at Notre Dame. A Notre Dame especially needs
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: to run the table here, so that's not gonna happen
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: for Syracuse. But this is the type of game Syracuse
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: will get up for. And everybody saw Syracuse one of
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: my losses last week just look horrible against North Carolina
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: on that Friday primetime game, and Syracuse either bench their
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: quarterback or he got hurt. I don't even know which happened,
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: or actually I guess it was phill the Alardy actually Filardi,
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: I guess played the entire game. Actually, I didn't even
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: expect that would be the case. He was horrendous in
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: that game, four for eighteen. What the hell is that?
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: Take him out? I don't even care as long as
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: it's not him. They gotta put somebody else in, man,
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: But I'm not playing this game anyway, so I don't
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: care what they do. But Syracuse, I mean, that's one
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: of the worst quarterback performances you'll ever see on North Carolina.
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: Though with Bill Belichick, North Carolina has actually played decent
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: defense this year. It's really been their offense. It's been
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: a major issue. But Syracuse, coming off that ugly of
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: a game, you gotta think they're gonna at least try
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: to not embarrass themselves this time and maybe show up.
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: And I think Miami is kind of in a bad
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: spot here, man, because they just took a second ACC loss,
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: And you could argue that's the dream crusher now because
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: look how many teams are ahead of them in the
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: ACC now, like Miami would need like basically the majority
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: of the teams ahead of them to lose more than
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: they do for the remaining part of the slate here,
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: and with Miami being a two loss team in the ACC,
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: they're probably not going to make the playoff at this
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: point either, and that was their goal was to make
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: the playoff obviously, and it looks like they're gonna fall
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: short again for the second straight year. So they could
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: be in a dream crusher. Miami could because that lost
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: to SMU last week in overtime might have ended their season.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: So that is the worry with Miami here. But one
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: reason why they might actually still come and play in
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: this game is because if you remember what happened last year,
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: Miami went to Syracuse, and Syracuse upset them and that
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: was that was the reason why Miami didn't make the
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: playoff last year. So Miami might actually show up for
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: this game just because Syracuse basically ended their season last year.
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: So for that reason alone, like I would hesitate to
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: want to fade Miami here. Well that in Syracuse's offense
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: just looks unbelievably inapt, but that I think kind of
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: takes me away from the dream crusher angle here. Miami
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: is a huge favor and up from twenty eight to
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: twenty eight and a half, seventy two percent of tickets,
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: eighty two percent of the cash. The money looks like
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: it's slightly on the Miami side, but they're public. But
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: if you want to lay the points at Miami, I
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: know Syracuse offense looks like they can't even do anything,
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: but this is a very low total down to forty six.
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: You're not gonna find me laying four touchdowns with a
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: forty six point total. I mean, it just seems like
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: there's the points are each point is just each point
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: is very big when it's a total like that. So
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: we'll see what happens mentl though I do think Miami
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: might show up for this because it is revenge. So
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: at least if Miami, you know, if they're not going
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: anywhere this year, they can at least get revenge against
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: the team that stop them from going anywhere last year,
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: which was Syracuse last year with McCord there or whatever
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: a quarterback, So they may actually show up for that.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: Auburn Vandy is also gonna be a play for me.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna have five plays and at least three
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: of them are in ranked I think exactly three, and
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: the other two I think are not number twenty three.
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: Washington is at Wisconsin on Big Ten Network at four
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: point thirty pm Eastern. This one. Washington, all of a
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: sudden they're in the rankings, and I think maybe it
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: is deserved Washington. I think they've been kind of under
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: the radar all season and they're a fairly good team.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: But when a team like this that's been unranked all
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: season and not really used to being in the rankings,
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: all of a sudden they're ranked, it kind of like
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: puts a target on their back, and sometimes that team
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: kind of has like more pressure on them. So that
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: could be the case with Washington here. So I don't
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: love that. For Washington, they're also coming out of a
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: bye and they went in They went into the buy
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: in a good note. They beat Illinois, who was actually
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: still ranked at the time, probably undeservedly because you know
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: me and my Illinois hate. I think Illinois has been
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: overrated pretty much all season. They're not that good. Washington
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: better than Illinois. Washington got that win. They went into
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: the bye, though that buy could kind of kill whatever
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: momentum they might have created off of that win, though,
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: so I think the by came at kind of a
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: bad time, even though he is later in the season. Now,
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: now they're gonna go to Wisconsin. Washington when they've gone
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: you know East, they've kind of struggled a little bit.
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: They barely got by Maryland and they actually had to
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: come back in that game and escape, and then they
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: lost at Michigan. Michigan's pretty good, but Washington in those
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: road games outside of their own time zone, they haven't
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: been particularly good. So that's a little bit of a
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: concern as well. For Wisconsin, they're not going anywhere this year,
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: they're probably not even gonna make a Bowl, but they're
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: also coming out of a buy and they went into
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: the by on a just ridiculous losing streak. They lost
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: six games in a row going into the losing streak.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: I think is what that is? Is that what it is? Yeah?
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: So I think that buy is better for Wisconsin because
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: that buy can end that losing momentum and you can
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: use that buy to fix some things. I think they
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: might show up for this one. Man, they have a
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: ranked team coming into their place. It's kind of a
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: weird spot for Washington because Washington being pretty new to
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: the Big Ten. They probably haven't even had to play
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: at Wisconsin yet at Camp Randall, which is not what
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: it used to be with Wisconsin being a completely down
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: program and Wisconsin looks like they just have absolutely zero
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: offense now. But still, I think the spot actually sets
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: up better for Wisconsin. I mean, Wisconsin, if they're gonna
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: show up for any games down the stretch, it'll be
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: games like this where they're facing a ranked team, especially
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: at home. Even though Washington I guess there's kind of
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: an outside chance for them to maybe do something, but
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: they probably don't really think so. With two losses in
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: the conference, I would take the points with Wisconsin. Washington's
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: up from ten and a half to eleven. This one
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: was actually somewhat close to being a play for me,
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: to be honest, I like the that I call it
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: the inverted by situation where one team went into the
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: buy and a good note and it can hurt that
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: buy can hurt them. The other team went into the
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: buy in a terrible note and it can help them.
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: Seventy percent of tickets on Washington afty one percent of
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: the cash coming in on Wisconsin, so the money is
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: seemingly agreeing with that. Taking Wisconsin. With Wisconsin though, I mean,
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: they have not been able to beat anybody of any
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: note though, like their only wins are against Miami Ohio, though
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: at least there they've actually proven to be a decent
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: MAC team at the very least, and then Wisconsin being
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee, they're just awful. So Wisconsin still doesn't have
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: any wins that are impressive at all. So that's a
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: little bit of a warrior there into the night Slate
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: on ESPN. And by the way, as I always say,
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: I don't even know which game is College Game Day again,
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: although I'm assuming it's It must be LSU Alabama, right
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: because that's always a huge rival. Or even with LSU
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: not being ranked anymore, I would guess it's that game,
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: but we'll see ESPN at seven pm. Wake Forest has
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: been kind of a surprise this year at five and three,
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: although two and three in the AEC, they were supposed
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: to be a complete bottom dweller in the ACC, and
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: they've actually been pretty decent up against Virginia, ranked fourteenth
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: in the country one loss on the season out of
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: and then the only undefeated ACC team at this point.
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: Who would have thought, is Virginia really the fourteenth best
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: team in the country, Though I don't think so. I
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: would say that they are almost certainly not. Are the
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: power ratings guys will basically tell you they don't even
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: have Virginia in the top twenty five. I think Virginia
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: is overrated. There are a few teams that are that
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna say are like some of the most overrated
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: right now in the entire country. One of them is
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: going to be a team that I'm playing against with
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: one of my plays. Another one of them is Virginia here,
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: so you kind of know where I'm going with this.
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: One of those is not going to be a play
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: for me. Wake Forest, they got absolutely drilled last week
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: by Florida State, which I kind of expected. I leaned
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: towards laying the points of Florida State in that one,
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: and Florida State easily just drilled them. Wake Forest not
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, Wake Forest wasn't in a great spot because
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: they pulled off that upset, which was one of my
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: wins on the show, by the way, against SMU the
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: week before that. So I just think they couldn't keep
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: it up, especially going on the road. They had ed
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: is what I mean, going on the road to Florida State,
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: and they had this big Virginia game up next, so
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: I think they might have been looking ahead big ESPN
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: match up against Virginia. Wake By the way, they only
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: need one more win to become a Bowl eligible, which
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know when the last time they made a
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: Bowl was, but they're gonna get that anyway, because highly
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: likely they're gonna win either against North Carolina or Delaware
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: at home, So they don't need to win this game
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: to become Bowl eligible, but I still think they would
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: like to because they could spoil the party for Virginia
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: here man, So I think they're gonna show up for
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: that reason, in because they had an embarrassing loss last
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: week for Virginia, I think they're on thin ice here, man,
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: because they have a target on their back big time
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: now as the top team in the ACC, which nobody expected.
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: If you look at their schedule this year, it's actually
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: turned out to be pretty easy. Their best win was
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: that one where I gave them out on the show
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: against Florida State. But even that, Florida State's only a
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: four and four team now, so that wind doesn't look
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: as good now. And then they pulled off that upset
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: over Louisville, which was a loss for me on the
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: show where I gave out Louisville. I thought it was
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: a big time letdown spot for Virginia in that one.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: But Louisville was like a six and a half point
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: favorite and probably should have won and covered. If you
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: look at the stats in that game, Louisville outstat of
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: Virginia pretty badly in that game, Nate, what's up, man?
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: I forgot. I don't know. I don't remember if I
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: said what's up or not. I'm like, I don't remember
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: anything anymore. I'm out of it. But yeah, Virginia, there's
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: the potential that they could lose, which, by the way,
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: I still understand how they're listed as undefeated in conference though,
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: because they they lost at NC State? Is that? Why
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: is that not considered me an ACC game? Is an
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: NC State in the ACC AM? I like losing my
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: mind here. I don't know. I feel like I asked
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: that all the time, but I just don't get it.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: I don't understand man. Anyway, Virginia, Uh, their travel spot
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: is a little bit weird too, because they had to
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: go out to the Pacific Coast last week, so they
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: haven't had a week off doing all this travel here.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: They were at North Carolina barely escaped for the win
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: in that one two weeks ago. Then they had to
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: go out to the Pacific Coast, so they went cross country.
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: Nice win against Cal where I thought Cal was kind
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: of in a bad spot because Cal was actually flying
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: back to the Pacific Coast as well from Virginia Tech
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: from playing an overtime game where they almost pulled off
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: the upset. So I think Virginia was more focused because
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: they almost lost to North Carolina. But all this travel
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: could could you know, wear them out a little bit?
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: Man coming back from the Pacific Coast again, So two
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: cross country trips and they do have Duke up next,
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: and by the way, that's a big game because Duke
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: is actually if you look at the odds, Duke actually
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: has the best odds as far as like what the
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: books are offering to win the ACC at this point,
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: Duke's at like two to one or two point two
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: to one or something like that plus two twenty to
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: win the ACC. They actually have better odds to win
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: the AEC the Virginia, Georgia Tech, Pitt Louisville SMU in Miami,
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: all the teams that are above them. Very interesting, but
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: that is a big game that means for Virginia with
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: Duke up next, because Duke is one of the threats
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: to win this conference here. But of course these teams
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: have to get to the ACC title game and then
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: once you get there, then you play that game to
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: win it obviously, so you have to be one of
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: the top two teams in the conference. With Virginia, they're
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: the team that can most afford to lose though, because
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: they're sitting at five and zero in conference. Again, don't
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: know how the NC State loss was not a conference
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: loss because the seas State is right here in the conference.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: Somebody can explain that to me. You know, I would
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: appreciate if somebody explained that to me, because I don't
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: know what the hell that is. But this could be
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: a look I had to duke it is what I
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: was trying to say with Virginia here, so I would
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: lead it taking the points with wake Forest. It's also
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: really really interesting that the books what do they do here?
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: They came out and they threw up the line at
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: six and a half. So the fact that Virginia, who's
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: the top of the acc right now, against this wake Forest,
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: I think, still doesn't get a bunch of respect. Which
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: maybe they're not as good as their record looks even
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: but I don't think either team is. But the fact
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: that Virginia, the books put them out at less than
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: a touchdown, it's like the books are begging you to
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: lay the points with Virginia. So that's why a lot
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: of times I do like taking plus six and a
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: half even though you're not getting the key number. But
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: there's a reason why the books have opened it at
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: six and a half, and with some tickets coming into
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: Virginia fifty nine percent, the books haven't even moved this number.
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of a red flag too, that there's
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: something going on there. Why the books have not moved
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: that to seven, it's because they're basically okay with taking
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: these bets on Virginia though right now sixty two percent
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Wake, because I think there are
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: a lot of professional betters that do like wake here,
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: I agree with it. I think the fact that they
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: put up the six and a half is a bit
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: of an indicator. There's money coming in in the under
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: as well, and the totals drop from to forty eight,
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: so if you're taking the points in this one, you're
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: getting more value taking the points as well because it's
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: a low total. So I do need to wake in
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: that game. I think weight could ugly the game up
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: a bit there and maybe maybe pull off a stunner.
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, we'll see, man. But again, like I always say,
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: if you're gonna take an underdog, I recommend always putting
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: a little bit on the money line, and if it's
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: a single digit underdog, I recommend putting ten percent of
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: the bet on the money line because I think there's
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: like a decent chance that there that they're gonna win outright, Like,
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: as long as your handicap is appropriate. Cal at Louisville.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: I think I completely forgot to even handicap this game,
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: or did or did I? I just didn't even I
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: just didn't even by its engine seven pm Eastern on
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: ESPN two is this game. CAL needs one more win
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: to become Bowl eligible. CAL to just take that loss
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: of virgin which is kind of a difficult loss, and
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: now they have to go back to I believe this
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: is the Eastern time zone in Louisville, right, so not
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: that easy to do. I mean CAL has played in
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: the Eastern time zone once, which was two weeks ago,
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: so there's zig zagging all over the country. Though, Man,
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: they played well in that game. They almost upset Virginia Tech.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: So they didn't do poorly when they did fly to
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: the East coast. So they did it actually earlier. They
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: actually did it in September. They went to BC, my mistake,
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: and they pulled off an upsite there. Although BC has
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: been awful and we're gonna talk about BC on the show.
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: But Cal, I mean, yeah, they've actually done well when
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: they've traveled to the East coast, interestingly enough, which they're
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: doing again here. Well, not to the East coast or
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: to the Eastern time zone. This time, but again they
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: were on the East coast Friday the twenty fourth, they
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: went back home, flew cross country, and now they're flying
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: basically cross country against So they're doing a lot of
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: travel here. That's pretty difficult for CAL and you got
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: to think that they're probably gonna win one of their
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: next two games anyway to become Bowl eligible, which will
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: basically be their goal. I think for the remainder of
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: the season. They get a game at Stanford, who suck,
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: and then at home against SMU, which is at least
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: a winnable game. I think for CAL so this is
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: their least winnable game remaining on the schedule. But will
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: they get up for it going to a ranked Louisville team.
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: They'll probably try, but they might be a little bit
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: tired from all this travel. Louisville one lost team ranked
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: fifteenth in the country. They're probably over ranked, but they've
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: been playing well. They did just get that win at
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech. Now they're coming back home. But for them,
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: they're staying pretty much in the same area, like, not
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: traveling very far, so the travel spot is a lot
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: better for Louisville. Here. Louisville has not even had to
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: go to the Pacific Coast all season, and this is
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: the only Pacific Coast team they're playing, so they kind
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: of luck out as far as the scheduling. They do
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: have Clemson up next, but Clemson totally out of it
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: this year, maybe doesn't gather you know, maybe that game
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: doesn't garner as much attention as it would otherwise, so
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: maybe it's not really a look ahead for Louisville. They
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: do have to keep winning if they're gonna try to
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: make the ACC title game here, which they certainly can,
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: so I think they're gonna show up for this one.
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: They'll be a home favorite here and pretty Stanchio as well.
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: In eighteen and a half point favorite sixty one percent
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: of tickets, only sixty percent of the cash, so the
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: cash looks like it's slightly leaning against them, and again
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: money on the under, and it's a low total of
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: forty nine and a half, so the points kind of
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: worth more there as well. I would tentatively, I guess
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: lean with the market there and take the points just
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: because it looks like it's a lot of points with
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: that low of a total. So again that's just kind
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: of my default and looking at the market read kind
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: of my default, but I certainly don't love it. I
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: don't love all the travel of the cow's been doing,
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: so definitely would that one is certainly not going to
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: be making my card. ABC at seven point thirty, which
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: I think is the game day game LSU and Alabama.
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is always a huge game for both teams,
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: which is also going to be part of how I
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: handicapped this one. Here it's on ABC. LSU has dropped
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: out of the rankings, Alabama ranked fourth in the country,
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: one loss, which is out of conference at Florida State
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: in their first game of the season, which you know,
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: maybe you forgive for Alabama because Alabama's got a freshman quarterback,
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: so maybe opening game, Jitters whatever, Simpson their quarterback. He's
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: been good though, and Alabama's undefeated in the SEC. Now,
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: LSU they're out of it. They got three SEC losses,
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: so they're done. They're not going anywhere, So why might
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: I want to lean to LSU here, which I actually
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: do lean to taking the points of LSU here. Well,
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: when a team is out of it like LSU, and
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: I know they had championship aspirations, so yes, their dream
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: has been crushed. But when their team, when the team's
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: dream has been crushed, one thing is gonna allow them
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: to get up for a game, and that's the fact
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: that they're playing Alabama. I mean, I think they're gonna
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: get up for a game against Alabama even if they
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: don't have anything else to play for the rest of
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: the season. They're gonna make a game like this their
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: super Bowl. And not only is it Alabama, but if
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: you remember, Alabama basically ended LSU season last year by
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: going into LSU and embarrassing them them out. And that
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: was the game where I think both teams had two
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: SEC losses and you basically knew that the team that
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: lost that game was gonna be out of it and
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: not make the UH the playoff, and that was the
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: dream crusher for LSU. So you gotta think LSU is
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: gonna remember that. So a little bit of extra motivation
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: here for LSU for that reason as well. So I
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: like all that, and it gets even better for LSU
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: because LSU just fired their coach, Brian Kelly's This is
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: another angle I like to look at. So you're gonna
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: start wondering why I'm not adding LSU to my card,
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: which I'll explain in a minute. But it's close. I
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: like LSU in this one. It's fairly close. They fired
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: their coach. That adds another angle that I like on LSU.
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: Here when a team fires their coach, a lot of times,
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: the players will play hard, especially in that first game,
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: because they either didn't like that coach and they're gonna
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: play harder for the guy that steps in, and or
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: the players are gonna want to prove that the coach
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: was the problem, not that. So you're gonna get motivation
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: maybe in both respects, but at least one of the two,
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: which is why that angle works. And it's worked pretty
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: well this year for the most part as well, so
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: I think I think it only hasn't worked like once
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: all season in college football against the spread the fired
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: coach spot, so it's pretty strong. Brian Kelly, I got
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: a feeling that the players didn't really love him. Man,
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: he does ride the players hard. He's I don't know,
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: he's kind of an ass. I don't know, I don't
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: know where he's gonna be going. Sometimes he doesn't make
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: a whole lot of sense. LSU. The guy that is
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: gonna be the interim coach here is their running backs coach,
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: so he's in the system. He's probably gonna continue doing
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: what they're doing anyway, which is LSU has been a
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: good defensive team this year and their offense hasn't been
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: that good, surprisingly with nuss Meyer coming back to try
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: to win a championship and boy did that fail. But
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: LSU they're still very good defensively. I think that's gonna
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: help them here. And they're actually very good defensively against
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: the pass, and that's what Alabama tries to do. Even
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: though it's with a freshman quarterback, Alabama does try to
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: throw the ball, so LSU their defense actually matches up
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: pretty well against Alabama. So that makes me like LSU
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: as well. And the fact that I think LSU, with
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: the running back coach now being the head coach, I
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: think he's gonna run the football a lot, and LSU,
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: I think it's kind of been doing that anyway, but
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: when they're facing Alabama as an underdog, you gotta think
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: they're gonna run the football anyway to try to shorten
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: the game and stay in the game. So that also
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: makes me like the under in this game. Then I
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: think it's gonna be kind of a playoff atmosphere. Alabama's
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: down from eleven to ten and a half here slight
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: tick down, or if you like LSU, I think you'll
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: easily be able to get the plus ten and a
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: half at the very least, which is a key number.
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: So I think you're fine if you want to do that.
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: Seventy five percent of tickets only seventy percent of the
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: cash in Alabama, So the money is agreeing with taking
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: the points with LSU because sixty one percent of the
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: tickets and eighty percent of the cash on the over,
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: So the money kind of indicating on the over. But
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: the total did drop a little bit down to four
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: nine and a half juice to the under, so there
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: is I mean that line move is at least a
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: little bit of an indicator on the under. Again, I
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: do like the under for the reasons I just stayed,
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: and UH probably prefer taking the points with the LSU
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: if I was gonna play this one. LSU, by the way,
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: I believe they're also coming out of a bye, so
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: that's another thing to look at. LSU went into the
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: bye on two straight losses, which basically kind of ended
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: their season hopes, right, So I think that actually is
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: a good time to have a bye because you can
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: use that buy to fix things prepare for Alabama. And
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: it's good to have a buye when you fire your coach.
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: It's a good time to fire your coach, I should say,
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: which that was one of my angles with Florida last week.
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: I liked the fact that they fired their coach during
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: a bye because then what you can do is you
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: get an extra week to prepare with that new coach,
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: right so he gets to, you know, learn more about
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: you know, what is going to happen with the system.
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: You know, everybody gets used to each other, where you
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: get more time to prepare with that coach who's gonna
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: be your coach moving forward for the rest of the
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: year or whatever. So it is helpful to have that
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: happen during a bye. I know, it's kind of crazy
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: if Brian Kelly had a very winning record with LSU
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: and he still gets the boot because he's never won
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: a championship, but it looks like he's not going to
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: so interesting. But I do think that's gonna help LSU.
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: So I think the buye is more helpful to LSU.
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: For Alabama, they do have to keep winning, though, like
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: Alabama's got to run the table here pretty much because
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: they do have one loss, they certainly could do it.
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, most difficult game is gonna be their next game.
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: I think the home game against Oklahoma, though I wouldn't
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: right off Auburn though in that Iron Bowl at the
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: very end of the season there, Auburn is not as
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: bad as they look. Still, I'm gonna continue saying that.
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: And you know, Auburn always gets up when they play Alabama.
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: I mean that's just the thing. Weird things canna happen
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: in those weird rivalry week games. So a couple of
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: games where maybe Alabama could trip up, Although would a
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: two loss Alabama teams still make the playoff probably uh,
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: But they want to make the Yeah, they want to
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: make the the SEC title game, although they can still
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: do that too with one loss. I think looking at
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: who's in the SEC, or let me see what the
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: SEC is doing right now now? And then they got
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: to contend with A and M the only other undefeated team,
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: and then Georgia, oh Miss. I mean they need some
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: slip ups from some of those other teams too. See, Alabama,
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: they knew they do need to keep rolling at the
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: very least. Now Alabama's coming out of a bye as well,
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: and they did go into the buy in a good note.
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: They'd won seven games in a row. I mean, they
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: haven't lost since their opening games. So yeah, I think
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: the buye came at a bad time for Alabama. The
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: fact that that buye came during that huge win streak
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: that might hurt their momentum. My hesitation would be that
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: Alabama did not play well against South Carolina. And you
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: remember I gave out South Carolina in that game. South
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: Carolina was winning outright in the fourth quarter in that game,
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: So Alabama, they might actually see that as a bad
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: performance and they may actually use that buy to fix
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: some things. So that is kind of my hesitation here.
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: And my handicap on that South Carolina play was that
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: I thought Alabama would be looking ahead to this LSU game.
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: So I do think based on what I said then,
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: I do still think Alabama is going to show up
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: for this game and try to be focused. But for
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: all the reasons I say it that I do lean
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: to taking the points with LSU. I think the situation
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: does line up better for them, and it's pretty close
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: to being a play for me. I've heard some professional
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: betters give some hesitation on the LSU side though as well,
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: but close to being a play there for me. And
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: then seven thirty pm on NBC and Petecock we got
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: seven and one Navy against number ten six and two
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame. To me, I would think that the public
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: would have a tendency to want to take the points here,
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: just like they were looking to do last year with
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame against Naval. Though Navy was ranked last year
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: when Notre Dame played them, but Notre Dame's up from
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: twenty four and a half to twenty eight here. Man,
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think you gotta think people are going
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: to look at that and think that's way too many points,
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: even though again they thought that last year. Notre Dame
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: absolutely annihilated Navy, which I called correctly last year although
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: it wasn't one of my plays. Sixty five percent of
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: tickets only sixty percent of the cash on Notre Dame though,
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: so even though the line did go up through some
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: significant numbers through twenty seven through twenty eight, it was
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: like the cash is kind of coming back on the
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: Navy side now. I don't think I really agree with
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: that though, I think I would lay it with Notre
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: Dame if I was gonna do it, although twenty eight
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: is definitely a different story than twenty four and a half.
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: But I think this is similar to last year, man,
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: where to me, it kind of looks like the spread
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: is like too big as far as like what the
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: public would perceive, but I think it's probably legitimate, like
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame is way better than Navy, although it is
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: being baked into the line, like I think last year,
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame was a much smaller favorite than this think
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: there what were they like around two touchdowns maybe somewhere
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: in the teens last year, so this is way bigger
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: this year. So yeah, I mean the spread is definitely
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: a bit to lay here, although I'd probably still need
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: to doing that though, because similar to last year, Navy
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: they just haven't played anybody. Man. I mean, I know
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: Navy's looking to get into the American Conference championship here,
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: but Notre Dame is not in their conference, so this
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: is an out of conference game for Navy, so they
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: actually don't really need to win this game. And Navy
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: they're coming off their first loss of the season, which
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: was to North Texas, So I talk about this when
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: you haven't lost at all this deep into the season,
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: then you take your first loss, and it was in
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: a big step up game against North Texas. That was
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: the first time that Navy was an underdog all season.
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: So I talked about that last year with the Navy
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: against Notre Dame too, because I think Navy hadn't been
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: an underdog all season, and then once they were, they
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: just got crushed. Last week, I did mention I leaned
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: to laying the points with North Texas, and they that
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: was correct. They did get the job done there. But
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: now that Navy took that loss, I actually think they
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: might be hung over a little bit into this game, man,
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: because it's not that easy to get back up off
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: the mat if you lose that first game. They still
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: have one loss in conference, and their next two games
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: are big against South Florida and then Memphis, and they
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: do have their annual Army Navy game after that. But
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: still for the American Conference, those next two games matter.
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: As crazy as it is, those games actually matter more
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: than this Notre Dame game. I mean, yeah, they'd like
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: to get this Notre Dame game, but if they want
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: to make the American Conference, man, I mean, I think
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: they got to be focused on that of I guess
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: the argument for them focusing on Notre Dame would be, well,
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: would have one loss if they run the table. Would
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: a one loss Navy team make the playoff? I guess
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: you could maybe make that argument, like they would have
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: to be Notre Dame, South Florida and Memphis with two
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: of those games being on the road. That's not gonna happen, though,
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: But I mean, I guess maybe it's a possibility. Maybe
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: they will get up. Maybe they'll get up for it
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: also because they got crushed by Notre Dame last year.
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: But I just think it's a mismap man. I just
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: think Navy just they don't have it in them. I
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: guess Notre Dame man in these recent years, I just
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: don't think so. And again, Navy has faced a very
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: very easy schedule. I mean, the first time they got
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: tested basically at all, aside from going to Temple. I
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: guess Temple is fairly good, and they only escaped with
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: a one point win in that one where I think
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: Navy was a road favorite there though, Yeah, Navy was
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: a ten and a half point favorite and they barely
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: got out of there. With a win, and now they
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: were an underdog for the first time last week and
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: they lost in North Texas, So yeah, I mean stepping
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: up in class. They haven't done well. Last year, it
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: was kind of a similar thing and they got obliterated
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: by Notre Dame fifty one to fourteen, and that was
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: their first loss of the season, and it hung them
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: over to the next game. By the way, they took
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: a loss against Rice in the next game against an
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: inferior opponent, so that might happen again this time. It's
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: just that their second opponent there is gonna be this
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame one. I mean, Notre Dame is gonna be
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: their second opponent instead of their first of what I
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: think are gonna be two losses. Like I certainly don't
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: think Notre Dame is gonna lose this game. Notre Dame,
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: by the way, they are used to facing triple option
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: teams like Navy. Notre Dame faces them every single year,
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: so Notre Dame, they're not gonna be thrown off by it,
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: you know. I mean last year, I think they actually
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: face Army as well, so they actually faced both of
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: those triple option uh Armed Force, Armed Forces, Armed Force
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: academies whatever last year than yeah, military academies last year,
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: and it was late in the season. Last year. Was
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: this Navy team, I mean Notre Dame team. They're used
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: to it. Man. They faced both those triple option decks.
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: They absolutely destroyed both of them too, Navy and Army,
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: so Notre Dame had no difficulty doing it. Notre Dame
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: has got a good deepfense. We know this. They know
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: how to stop these attacks, stop the Navy from attacking
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: navies they're they're coming by, because that's how gay they are.
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: We know that. I forget what I was gonna say.
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: It's two of my sea but I forget what I
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: was gonna say. I'm dude. I have too many thoughts
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: in my head right now. But yeah, Notre Dame, Yeah,
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, they just know how to stop these attacks.
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: Even though they haven't faced one this year, They're still
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: used to it. They know how to stop the triple option.
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: And Notre Dame just went through the motions last week
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: against Boston College. So I told you I thought BC
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: might be able to cover that number. Notre Dame had
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: beaten USC in a big game two weeks prior to that.
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: They'd gone into a bye I thought they might come
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: out of that by a little bit lackluster because the
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: bye can kind of hurt their momentum a little bit.
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: I thought this game mattered more against Navy. Yeah, they
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: have a big game up kind of against Pittsburgh. Next
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: to pitt is ranked but probably not deserving of being
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: ranked Notre Dame though. The other reason they're gonna show
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: up here is they have to run the table. I mean,
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: they took two losses right out of the gate and
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: it looked like there was no way they were gonna
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: make the college football Playoff. They were gonna have to
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: run the table to do it. Now it looks way
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: more like they actually might be able to do that,
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: but they got to keep their foot on the gas
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: to do it. Man. So will it be enough to
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: cover that huge number? I don't know, but I'm kind
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: of leaning towards laying the points with Notre Dame in
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: that one. So yeah, they still need to show up
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: at least because they still have their site set on
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: a potential championship. So there we go. Any of these
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: games that I want to talk about besides the games
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: we're gonna be give up giving out plays on Colorado
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: and West Virginia. If you look at this, Colorado got
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: absolutely annihilated by Arizona last week, so they look like
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be in a bounced back spot. Man. I mean,
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: they don't have a whole lot left to play for here.
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: They're probably not gonna make a bowl. But they got
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: disembarrassed against Arizona last week, fifty two to seventeen at home.
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: And if you look at what happened in this game,
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: Colorado had five turnovers in the game minus three and turnovers. Yeah,
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: they got out gained by about a hundred yards too,
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: But the five turnovers made this way worse than it
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: actually was. It made it look worse than it actually was.
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: So I think it's kind of a bounce back spot
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: for Colorado here a West Virginia. I mean, they're not
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: really going anywhere either, so you gotta kind of determine,
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: like how motivated are these teams gonna be. I think
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: maybe Colorado will be more motivated because they're coming off
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: such a disgusting loss, or as West Virginia. Last week
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: they pulled off a big double digit road upset at Houston,
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: fairly unexpected, I think, although I think I mentioned I'd
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: probably leaned to West Virginia plus the points, but didn't
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: expect them to win the game outright, and they did. So.
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: They're coming off a big upset win, man, which I
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: think they might come into this game a little bit overconfident,
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: and you gotta be thinking, like, how does the team
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: put up forty five points against Houston when Houston they're
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: known for being a good defense. That was a double
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: digit upset by the way of twelve and a half. Yeah,
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: Houston's a good defense, but if you look at what
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: happened in this game, yeah, West Virginia actually did slightly
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: outgain them, but four turnovers by Houston minus four and
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: turnof that was kind of the tail of the game. Man.
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: I don't think West Virginia would have won that game
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: at all without being plus four and turnovers. You have
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: one team coming off a very satisfying upset win. You
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: got Colorado coming off an ugly, ugly loss. Both games
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: are kind of skewed by turnovers. I think Colorado makes
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: sense in this game. I would take the points with Colorado.
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: West Virginia is up from five and a half to
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: six and a half. Here, sixty six percent of tickets
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: only fifty five percent of the cash. Those are the money.
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: Seems like it's agreeing with me and taking the points
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: of Colorado. So that's what I would do. Means were
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: its taking the points of Colorado. And of course whenever
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: I because I think sometimes I just say I like
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: this team or whatever. When I'm saying that, I do
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: mean against the spread. I'm talking all spreads here, man.
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: James Madison at Marshall is an interesting one in the
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: sun Bellot here with James Madison being undefeated in the
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: conference at five and zero, Marshall being a two loss team.
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: They're in the same division though, James, I mean, I
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: don't know if there's any outside chance of them maybe
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: even making the playoff at this point because they only
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: have one loss and it was to Louisville. I don't know, Man,
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: if they could run the table here, they could definitely
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: run the table. They don't really have too many difficult games.
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: This is the most difficult game left on the road
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: against Marshall. And I thought they would trip up against
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: Texas State last week because JMU was coming off a
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: huge blowout win of Role Dominum, which was a huge
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: win for them. I thought they would get caught Texas State.
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: I thought was I thought that Texas State just was
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: massively underperforming. I thought they were way better than what
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: their record looked. Texas State, with that coach they have there,
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: they've actually been quite good. But I was wrong. James
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: Madison killed them, and then I thought James Madison was
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: gonna be looking ahead to this game. They've been off
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: since Tuesday the twenty eighth, and I do think James
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: Madison is going to show up for this because last year,
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: Marshall was the team that basically ended James Madison's season
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: as far as their goals are concerned, because Marshall prevented
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: them from getting in to the Sun Belt Championship at
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: the very least. So James Madison, I think their goal
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: was to win the conference last year, and they lost
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: to Marshall in the final week, and Marshall totally overperformed
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: too and got into the championship game instead. Now this
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: is a totally different Marshall team because the entire team
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: and coach bailed and went to Southern Miss. But still
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: James Madison's gonna remember that. So I actually think they
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: are going to show up for this game. Against Marshall,
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: and you know, JMU was still trying to make sure
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: that they get into the Sunbelt Championship, but though it's
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: pretty likely at this point, although they still have to
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: win the Sunbelt East to do that and Coastal Carolina
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: is right behind them. Although James Madison does play Coastal
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: Carolina later in the season. Coastal is not as good
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: as the record looks Marshall. They last played on Thursday
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: and they lost to Coastal, which is not a great
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: loss for Marshall there. Marshall was actually a seven and
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: a half point favor and they got upset in this
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: game on the road. This Coastal team keeps pulling upsets.
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: Marshall had five turnovers in the game. That's pretty much
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: why they lost. Minus three in turnovers, they outgained Coastal
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: by a little bit there, so the spot doesn't look
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: terrible for Marshall though. I mean, they're trying to become
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: Bowl eligible, which they can if they get two wins
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: out of the remaining four. It seems likely that they
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: probably will even though expecting this, Marshall need to be
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: real bad this year after they lost their whole team
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: last year. But you remember Marshall, like their whole team
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: left last year, so the team had to like bail
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: out of they had they had to like exit that
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: bowl game, like they had to whatever it was. They
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: had to drop out of the bowl. On some other team,
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: I forget which team it was took their place in
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: whatever bowl that was. So this Marshall program that didn't
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: go to a bowl last year, So these players might
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: actually be excited to do that. They'll probably get up
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: for a game against JAMU coming off an embarrassing loss,
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: but James Madison is gonna be ready for it too.
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: I think they are the better team. The money is
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: slightly coming in a JAMU up from thirteen to thirteen
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: and a half, eighty five percent of tickets, eighty eight
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash coming in to James Madison. I mean,
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: I guess I would slightly lean to laying the points
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: with them, just because they still have their sights set
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: on the conference championship here and it is revenge for
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: last year. But it might be a small wher. Both
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: teams are gonna show up here. Man. But the oswigers
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: are telling you the JMU is this much better than Marshall,
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: and that Marshall's overperformed a little bit by just looking
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: at their record here? All right, what else we got
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: going on here? Other games that I really wanted to
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: talk about there weren't a whole lot, So this might
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: actually wind up being shorter than most of my college
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: football videos. I still have five plays to talk about, though,
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: But hey, man, shorter video? Why not? I thought it
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: was a little bit of a shorter slate this this week,
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: So I mean, what else do I kind of just
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: wanted to talk about games that had like more major
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: implications and whatever. Let's see here Iowa State TCU, I
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: guess as someone interesting because Iowa State, Man, have they fallen?
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: As TCU's now up for six and a half to
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: a seven and a half point favorite in this one.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: Iowa State had been ranked earlier in the season. TCU
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: I think was ranked very very briefly. But Iowa State,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: bigger things are expected, man, and they've lost so many
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: games in a row now that now TCU is a
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: seven and a half point favorite against them, I think
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: the line might have gotten too far here, man. I
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: think maybe there is some value at this point taking
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: the points with Iowa State. And though I know they
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: have some pretty significant defensive injuries. Now for Iowa State,
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: their offense hasn't really come together either. Seventy four percent
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: of tickets only sixty five percent of the cash on TCU,
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: so TCU was public with some of the money coming
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: in on the Iowa State side. Now, Iowa State has
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: indeed lost four games in a row. They did go
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: off the rails here and they haven't really faced that
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: difficult of a schedule either. So I think they're not
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: as good as they were expected to be. But at
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: this point, I mean they you might expect them to
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: bounce back at some point. Man. They are coming off
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: kind of a tough loss at home to Arizona State.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know what to think. Man,
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: they only lost that game by five. Now they're gonna
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: go back on the road. They're probably gonna become Bowl
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: eligible because they're probably gonna win either at home against
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: Kansas or on the road against Oklahoma State. But they
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: had their sites set for winning the Big Twelve this
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: year though, Man, so those dreams have been crushed. But
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: will they get back up at this point to face TCU,
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know. TCU is already Bowl eligible at six
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: and two. I think they maybe had their sites set
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: up potentially trying to win this conference too, but I
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: don't think that's gonna happen. You could argue that maybe
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: they're gonna overlook Iowa State because they do a BYU next,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: which is a big game for TCU, their biggest remaining game. Basically,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: with TCU probably not going anywhere at this point, is
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: a two loss team in not a very good Big twelve.
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: TCU did also have a bye last week, and they
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: went into the buy on a win streak, winning two
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: games in a row, so I think the bye came
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: at a bad time. Even though it is later in
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: the season, it could disrupt their momentum a little bit.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: So I would lean to Iowa State, take getting the
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: points there. Take the points of Iowa State, but not
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: a play for me Kennesaw State at New Mexico State.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: This is interesting, man, because you do have kind of
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: a cluster here in the Conference USA, where oh I
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: didn't talk about Missouri State and Liberty, who are both
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: one loss teams here. I mean, I don't know. Maybe
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: I'll go back and talk about that game briefly, just
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: because this game, this video isn't gonna be as long.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: Kansas State undefeated in Conference USA. That's just crazy. Man.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: This is a team that I think joined FBS last
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: year and they were like a one win team. So
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: they have definitely improved this year. But are they really
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: this good? I don't really think so. Kennesaw. I mean,
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: they've looked pretty good so far. I mean, they've had
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: a couple of primetime games last couple of weeks, I think,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: and they showed up for these primetime games. They looked
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: pretty good. They had a Thursday game, two Tuesday games,
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: and they won all of them. That's pretty big for
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: a team that's pretty new to FBS like Kennesaw is.
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: Now they're coming off all that, they've had a little
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: bit of extra time off that I think might slow
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: them down a little bit, maybe hurt their momentum a
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: little bit. They actually didn't play very well offensively in
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: their last game against UTEP, even though it looks good
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: on the score were with a thirty three to twenty win,
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: they weren't that great in the game. They only outgained
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: UTEP by nine yards, so it wasn't really a win
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: by margin there. Now they're coming up all those primetime games,
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: they got to go to New Mexico State, who's one
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: of the lower teams in the conference right now, they
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: might not pay attention to New Mexico State, and it's
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: kind of a weird spot to have to go out there.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: And then up next they got the other undefeated team
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: in this conference right after this in the Conference USA
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: against Jacksonville State and then the Missouri State in Liberty remaining.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: So the other top teams in the conference are all
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: of their remaining opponents. Jacksonville State undefeated in the conference,
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: in the Missouri State and Liberty two one loss teams
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: there in the conference. So kind of might overlook New
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: Mexico State here, man I would lean to taking the
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: points in New Mexico State in this one. And by
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: the way, kennisaw they're Bowl eligible though I think technically
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: not really because there's like a transition period here. But
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: we've seen in recent years is these teams that get
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: six wins they like petition the NCAA because there are
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: so many bowl spots usually available. Like we saw James
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: Madison do that. Jacksonville State in this conference did that
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: a couple of years ago, I think so. I think
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: Kennesam might do that. So I think the fact that
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: they got their sixth win in primetime is also pretty
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: big man for a program that had one win last year,
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: and now they're actually bowl eligible and might be able
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: to petition to get into a bowl. That's big too.
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: So it could be a little bit of a letdown spot.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think that coming into this season,
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: I don't think that their goal was to win the
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: Conference USA. I don't think they really had a legitimate
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: I don't think they really legitimately thought they had a
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: chance at that. But they actually do. Although look at
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: their conference wins, by the way, they haven't been that impressive.
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, they've beaten all like bad teams in the
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: conference Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee, FIU, and UTEP those are
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: all bad. Their one big good win was against LOUISIANATTACKO.
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: Isn't that bad. But other than that, not great for
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: New Mexico State. What do they have going on here?
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: We see as far as New Mexico State is concerned,
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: they face some of the more difficult teams than the
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: conference already in Liberty, Missouri State, or they took into
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: overtime Western Kentucky actually not that bad either. They have
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit less rest because they played last Saturday,
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: but they got obliterated by Western Kentucky. I mean, to me,
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: I think New Mexico State might show up for this
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: just because they could kind of spoil the party for Kannesaw.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: I mean New Mexico State. I mean if they win
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: this game, then they actually could potentially become Bowl eligible
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: because they would have utap in Middle Tennessee remaining at
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: the end of the season after they Fase Tennessee, which
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: they're not gonna win. But if they beat Kannisas State,
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: they do actually have a shot to make a Bowl too.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: So I expect New Mexico State to actually show up,
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: So I would take the points here. This is actually
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: close to being a play for Maybe the money is
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: disagreeing with it strongly. With Kennesaw up from six and
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: a half to now nine and a half, it looks
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: like it might hit ten. You might be able to
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: get the key number of ten on New Mexico State here.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: That is a significant line move though through the key
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: number of seven all the way almost up to the
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: key number of ten. Now fifty four percent of tickets
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: ninety six percent of the cash on Kennesaw, So some
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: strong money on Kennesaw. Again, I think they're not in
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: a great spot and there's not really as good as
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: their record looks. So I would take the points with
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: New Mexico State in that game. What do you mean
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: Kennisaw has a buzz saw? What does that mean? They're way?
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: Kennesaw is eligible? So their transition Perier was only one
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: year then I thought it was like I thought it
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: was a three year thing. But maybe I'm thinking of basketball.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: Missouri State and Delaware are excluded. But again, can they
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: petition because I thought James Madison and Jacksonville State both petitioned,
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: although maybe it was when they were in their second year.
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know how this is gonna work.
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: These lines are wild, Yeah, I mean at this one,
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: I think Kennesaw is a little bit over value at
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: this point, man, I think their record makes them look
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: a little bit better than they actually are. They're certainly
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: better this year than they were last year, for sure,
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: but are they this much better? I tend to not
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: really think so. Going back to the Missouri State game,
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: especially because Justin's year, he's our Missouri State guy. Where
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: was that game. This is actually kind of a big
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: game between Missouri State and Liberty. Missouri State also could
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: get their sixth win, although Justice is saying that doesn't
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: really matter because they might not be able to make
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: a bowl. They've been off since Wednesday, the twenty ninth,
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: beating FIU and barely beating them FIU not an impressive win,
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: but Missouri stayed on a nice little wind streak, although
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: again it was against some weak opponents in this conference
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State and FIU. Now they're gonna
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: go to Liberty. It's a step up in class man
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: and Liberty. They were the team that was expected to
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: win this conference this year and they're sitting at four
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: and four. But I mean, everything is kind of in
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: front of them right now because they have one loss
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: in the conference. They could still make the conference championship.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: Here they're gonna have to win these games, but their
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: remaining schedule is not really tremendously difficult. They're coming off
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: a blowout win over Delaware. But I think Liberty, I mean,
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: they're just they've gained some momentum here and I think
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: they might continue here. They are the better team over
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: Missouri State. So the line's gonna look a little bit
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: weird seeing that Liberty is only four and four Missouri
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: States five and three. Yet Liberty is favored by like
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: a touchdown here. They are still the better team. I mean,
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: this is what Liberty set out to do. They were
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: the team that had the best odds to win this
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: conference coming into the season. They're down from May and
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: a half to eight year on the line, but the
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: money seems to be coming in on Liberty. Seventy four
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, eighty five percent of the cash on Liberty.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: I'll agree with it. I would lay the points with Liberty.
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: Sorry justin, but I think Liberty is gonna get the
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: job done. I mean, they're the team that they're just
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: way more used to this man, Missouri State. They're new
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: to FBS completely, so they're not really used to being
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: in this position. Liberty really was conference to kind of lose,
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: and they still actually could potentially get into the conference
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: title game here man, especially because they play Kennesaw in
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: the last week. So if they beat Kennesaw and at
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: least even up their record with Kennisaw, they would overtake
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: them because they would have the tiebreaker against them. So
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: Liberty could definitely still make the conference championship and win
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: the conference. So I like Liberty in that game slightly.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: Kennesaw is eligible. Okay, Missouri State in transition period and
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: right right, that's what it is. Yeah, So Missouri State,
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: if they get their six win, I mean, I think
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: they're still gonna show up for this game, I guess
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: because it is a big game against Liberty. Liberty's kind
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: of been like the class of this conference recently. Well,
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: I didn't see what happened in that Tulane game, and
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: now there's like, I don't know, they're talking about women's
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: basketball now on I'm not Sports Center or whatever, which
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: I don't care about women's college basketball. Oh, women's college
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: basketball started. But but yeah, yeah, I adjusted asciding. But
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: I think what I was kind of alluding to is that, yeah,
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: if not enough teams qualify, which I think usually is
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: the case because there were like thirty seven, thirty eight
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: bowls now whatever, because it's a money making schemes. So yeah,
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: I mean you might see like what we saw with
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: I think James Madison and Jacksonville State. They were able
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: to petition and get into a bowl because not enough
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: teams qualified and they had more than six wins or
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: at least six wins two lane one out right, Yeah,
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: so I lead to Tulane to cover the spread in
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: that one. They were winning the game by a lot,
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: and I think they kind of blew it, but it
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: looks like they wound up winning anyway after kind of
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: imploding and blowing most of the lead. There. What other
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: games was I gonna talk about here? Man? You know, Army.
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: I think Army is actually kind of in an interesting
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: situation which I kind of forgot about. They're coming off
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: beating air Force. That's always a big game, one of them,
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: you know, Commander in Chief Trophy round robin game there
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: with the service Academy that wins the most of the
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: games gets the Commander in Chief Trophy. Army be at
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: air Force a big win for them. They haven't played
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: Navy yet, of course, because that's one of the last
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: games of the entire season. So now they're coming off that,
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: they are coming up that's a pretty big win against
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: air Force. Now they got Temple. Will they completely show
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: up for Temple? I don't know, because Temple's kind of
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: falling off a little bit, so Army is coming off
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: kind of a bigger game there, So maybe a little
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: bit of letdown, you could argue there. Temple's coming off
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: just an ugly loss forty five to fourteen to East Carolina.
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: Just terrible loss for Temple. Temple still probably wants to
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: become Bowl eligible. At the very least, they need one
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: more win there to get Bowl eligible. The money's not
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: agree with me on this one. The money is laying
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: the points of the Army up from six and a
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: half to seven. I don't really agree with it, though.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: I don't really see it being that being the way
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: that I would lean in this one. Temple's seventy percent
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: of the tickets fit percent of the cash is evenly split,
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: so readhearded, I'll do whatever I want, Fuck you man,
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: all right, So yeah, I would lean the other way
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: in that one. The only issue I guess with Temple
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: is that are they gonna be able to face and
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: face a triple option attack? And I think they'll do
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: okay in that respective least because Temple did actually face Navy,
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: and they did pretty well against Navy earlier in the season,
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: which I already brought up earlier in the show. They
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: were a ten and a half point underdog, and they
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: only lost by one to Navy, So Temple. They already
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: faced Navy, who's better than our Army is so Temple,
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: They're at least used to facing these triple option attacks,
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: so I don't think that's gonna really throw them off.
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: So I just thought that game was a little bit interesting.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: And then what else is I was talking about? Well, yeah,
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: air Force is at San Jose State here. Air Force
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: is also coming off that game where they lost close
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: game to Army. Now they have to go out to
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: San Jose State. Probably not the greatest spot for them,
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: maybe a hangover spot for air Force with not a
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: whole lot left to play for. One of the games
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: they would get up for it was that game against Army.
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: They took the loss. San Jose State got the win
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: in the late night Degenerate special last week, which I
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: gave out an opinion on that It almost made my
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: card man. I wish it did because I liked it.
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: Some of the professionals didn't like it, some did, but
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: San Jose State got the win there. I thought it
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: was kind of one of those inverted by situations if
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: I remember cracking and San Jose State got the win there.
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, San Jose State is not really going anywhere
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: either this year, though, I just think that maybe it's
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: a tougher spot for air Force in this one, So
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: I would probably lay the points with San Jose State,
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: but they're up from three and a half to five
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: and a half. Although those numbers are kind of in
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: no man's land. There eighty eight percent of the tickets,
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: ninety six percent of the cash on San Jose State there,
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: So do what you will with that one. But that's,
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: you know, my slight opinion on that one. Florida State
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: at Clemson, which would normally be a huge game, and
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: it's in staid. It's the Disappointment Bowl basically with Florida State.
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: They were so bad last year. I don't know if
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: they were really expected to be that good this year,
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: but they seem to be usually a powerhouse and Clemson
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: was supposed to be a championship contender and these teams
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: have fallen way short. Florida State did end their four
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: game Losstreek with a win over Wake Forest. They do
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: have some momentum at least coming into this one. Sometimes
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: when you end a lost streak that can actually break
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: that momentum, then you can move forward. They got their
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: first conference win. At the very least, they'll probably show
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: up for a game against Clemson because Clemson was supposed
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: to be the way better team to start the season.
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: Clemson is coming off that tough game against Duke Man.
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: They came out of the by actually, which was between
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: two pretty tough games against SMU and Duke. SMU got
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: the ACC championship revenge against them, which club Nick was
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: actually I think out for that game. It looks like
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: he was injured, but he came back and Duke was
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: able to get the win against Clemson. Difficult game bold
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: those teams. Now Clemson's coming off of that, Clemson doesn't
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: really have a whole lot left to play for. Will
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: they show up for Florida State. I don't know, because
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: they're coming off that big Duke game, and they do
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: have louis Vault next, and maybe Clemson will have more
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: focus on that because it's a Friday night primetime game
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: and they might be able to spoil Louisville season. So
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: I would slightly lean to Florida State in this one.
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: They're getting the money. Clemson is down from a one
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: and half paint favorite to one point favorite. Man, that
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: is crazy. The oddsmaker's telling you Florida State's actually the
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: better of these two teams at this point after Clemson
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: was supposed to be a title contender. That is just crazy.
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: But I think because Clemson is going to be the
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: more disappointed team because Florida State wasn't expected to do
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: a whole lot this year after how bad they were
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: last year, that kind of makes sense. As far as
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: looking to the Florida State site here as well, fifty
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: one percent of the tickets, seventy six percent of the
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: cash on Florida State. I'll agree with that one Florida
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: at Kentucky. I was considering making Kentucky a play. It
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: was close because Florida's coming off that big game against
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: Georgia where they just they fell just short. That was
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: a huge rivalry game for Florida obviously, and with a
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: Florida team that we know is not going anywhere, that's
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: one of the games that they will get up for,
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: probably not so much going to Kentucky. They're probably not
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: gonna really care about that. And then they got Old
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: Miss in Tennessee and Florida State as they're remaining three games,
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: so games that they're probably gonna at least try to
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: show up for so I think it's a bit of
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: a sandwich spot. I mean, this looks like a flat
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: spot to me for Florida game where they're just not
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: gonna really care about it, surrounded by bigger games. So
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: I would take the points with Kentucky if I was
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. The one issue I really have with
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: it is that Kentucky pulled off an upset last week
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: which ended my survivor. Isn't that great? Double digit upset
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: at all Auburn. That's a big win for Kentucky. So
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: that is kind of my one hesitation for Kentucky. You
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: could argue both these teams are trying to become Bowl eligible.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know, Maybe that's an argument. Florida actually,
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: I believe it missed out on the bowl season a
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: couple of years in a row. They finally made a
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: bowl I think last year again, and they were pretty
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: excited about it. Uh Kentucky, they didn't make a bowl
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: last year if I'm not mistaken, So yeah, they might
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: be more excited to try to become Bowl eligible. At
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: the very least, they might be more pumped to try
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: to win this because this is a winnable game for them,
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: and they're gonna win next week against Tennessee Tech. But
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: then they would have to win one of their final
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: games on the road against ranked opponents, which maybe they
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: could do because Vandy is gonna be a pretty disappointed
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: team I think at that point. So who knows. But
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: my main hesitation with Kentucky here is that I don't
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: like to play teams that are coming off double digit
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: upsets like they are. But other than that, I think
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: it is a pretty bad spot for Florida, so I
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: would lean to taking the points with Kentucky. The market
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: seems to agree. Florida looks like they're headed towards three
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: and a half, so you'd probably be able to get
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: three and a half on Kentucky here at some point.
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: By the time the game kicks off, sixty one percent
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: of the tickets only fifty four percent of the cash
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: on Florida, so the money is agreeing with it. Like
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: I said in Fading Florida, there last game before my
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: plays that I'll talk about. Actually I'll talk about two
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: more games then I'll talk about my plays. It's still
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: gonna be a little bit of a shorter video than
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: the other one, so good after doing a fucking two
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: hour video this morning to just fucking lose today. That's
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: great Nebraska at UCLA. This is for Nate as well.
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: Nebraska sending it six and three, three losses in conference now,
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: so we know they're not going anywhere, man, so they're
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: just gonna play out the stretch. Here. Could argue that
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: they're may be in somewhat of a dream crusher is
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: spot here coming off that lost to USC where they
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: hung in there against USC. Man, Nebraska had that chance
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: to beat USC last week and they fell just short.
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: So everything for me would seem to be lining up
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: on a spot where you want to faite Nebraska. They're
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: going out to the Pacific Coast for a late night
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: game and it's the first time doing that this season.
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: That's ugly as well, man, when these teams that are
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: not Pacific Coast teams have to go out to the
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: Pacific Coast, unfamiliar environment, playoff game that's gonna be late
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: their biological clock. That's bad. So a lot of negatives
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: for Nebraska. And then they go into a buy and
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: they got Penn State and Iowa to finished off the season.
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: You could argue those are bigger games as well, Penn
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: State it's still the name Penn State, and then Iowa,
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: and they might not pay as much attention to UCLA.
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: The one thing that Nebraska does have, well, actually two
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: things Nebraska still has going for them. One is Nebraska
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: lost at home last year to UCLA, so there is
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a revenge factor here. So is
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: that enough to motivate Nebraska here. I don't know. I
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: don't know if they're gonna really care and remember that,
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: but they did lose at home to UCLA, which I
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: think was a bad spot for Nebraska if I remember. I
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: think Ucla might have been one of my plays last
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: year in that game, if I remember correctly. But there
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: is that, And then the other thing is Ryola Patrick
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: Mahomes clone or whatever Patrick Mahomes understudy. He got hurt
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: last week, So Nebraska is actually gonna be an injured
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: player at theater spot here. Whoever their replacement quarterback is
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: is gonna be in this game. So sometimes that will
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: motivate a team, man, because the team wants to play
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: well for that backup quarterback, knowing, hey, we got to
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: step it up, like give more effort than we usually do.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: So a couple of things keeping me away from playing
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: Ucla here man because normally I would say it looks
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: like a really bad spot for Nebraska, But those couple
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: of things give me some pause at UCLA probably not
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: gonna become Bowl eligible year, this is gonna be the
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: most winnable game for them remaining on the schedule without
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: the very least, and they're coming off getting blown out
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: by Indiana pretty embarrassing, even though Indiana is a good
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: team this year. But UCLA got blown out and they
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: went into a bye. So I think that is a
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: positive for UCLA because not only do they have extra
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: time off, but they went into a buy on basically
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: the worst note that you could have, which was their
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: first loss as they had started their win streak awful loss.
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: You've got to think they're gonna come out of that
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: buy more focused, I would imagine, even though yeah, they
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: have all of Ohio State up next. But I don't
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: think this is really gonna be a look ahead for
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: you of CLA. So I do still lean to UCLA
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: in this one, but again I have a few hesitations
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: with Nebraska here. Sab is bringing up a good point
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: which I'm gonna bring up in a second, the money
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: is actually I guess somewhat coming in on Nebraska, and
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: even though they went from a two point favorite down
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: to a pick them, but fifty seven percent of the tickets,
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: fifty nine percent of the cash coming in on Nebraska.
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: So slight cash percentage on Nebraska. I still lean against
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: Nebraska slightly. But Sab and Nat to bring up one
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: other good point with the Nebraska here is their replacement
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: quarterback is from California. Thank you, Sab, thank you Nate.
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: That is TJ Latif. He played high school football in California,
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: so you're right. So that is an extra motivating factor
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: as well. So because Latif is from California, he's gonna
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: want to play well in front of like his own
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: ground that he's probably gonna have like friends and family
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: come to this game, I would imagine, especially if he's
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: from the LA area, which I think he actually is.
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: As you're saying, he's a southern California kid, So you're right,
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be an extra motivating factor as well. Like
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: the crowd, he's gonna have some of his like friends
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: and family there, so he's gonna want to play well,
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: and that's gonna make the team want to play well
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: for him. So you're right, that is another reason to
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: not want to play Nebraska here. It's not gonna completely
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: flip me to play Excuse me, that's another reason to
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: not want to play UCLA. Excuse me. It's not gonna
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: completely flip me to wanting to play Nebraska here though.
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: Elite eleven. All right, I don't know what that means,
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: but I mean, situationally, I still kind of slightly lean
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: to UCLA here, but you're right, those are definitely some
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: factors there that keep me away from it. I don't
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: think it completely flips me to the Nebraska side though,
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: but yeah, you're absolutely right with those points there. And
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: then the late night Degenerate Special at eleven pm Eastern
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: involves San Diego State, who is the only undefen in
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: a team in the Mountain West right now, in the
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: Mountain West Conference. Wait what these numbers are wrong? Right? Oh? No,
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: because I forgot Boise lost to Fresna. How did I
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: forget that? What the fuck? How did I forget that?
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: I don't even know? All right, but San Diego State
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: they're undefeated. They're the only undefeated team in the Mountain West. Man,
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: San Diego State seems to have kind of gotten back
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: to their former glory days here because the San Diego
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: Diego State team they're actually playing really really good defense
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: for the most part, which is something that was kind
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: of their hallmark, and they're actually able to run the
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: football again. But now they're sitting undefeated. Man, it looks
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: pretty likely they're gonna make the Mountain West title game
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: here at the very least. But they also play Boise
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: State next week, so that's a big game. Man. It
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: could be a look ahead to Boise State. That's gonna
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: be a huge game next week. And it looks again
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: pretty likely San Diego State is gonna make the conference
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: championship game. That can actually kind of or to lose
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: a game, if you will. And this is gonna be
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: a weird spot having to go out to Hawaii, even
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: though I think they do that every other year, I guess,
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: but still you have to go out to Hawaii. It's
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: a weird travel spot. It's very weird time biologically, even
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: if you're on the Pacific coast, you're going out to
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: a game that's at least an hour later than you're
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: used to. Although I think it's a little bit early
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: Hawaii time out there, but looks like kind of a
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: weird spot to me for San Diego State man, and
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: they're coming off a nice easy win over Wyoming, and
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: I don't really care about that. But Hawaii, they're already
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: Bowl eligible this year, which was one of their goals,
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: I would imagine, because I don't think they've been to
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: a Bowl recently under Timmy Chang there. Yeah, they were
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: not eligible for a Bowl last year, so that's a
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: big deal for Hawaii. So I kind of hesitate to
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: want to actually jump in on Hawaii, but you got
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: to think they're gonna get up for a game against
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: San Diego State Hawaii. I mean, they basically just throw
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: the football, though in San Diego State at least can
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: counter that defensively. So I worry about it a little
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: bit with Hawai, but I think I still need to
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: maybe taking the points with Hawaii here, just because the
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: spot looks very strange to me. The money's disagreeing with
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: that is San Diego State's up from four and a
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: half to seven here, fifty three percent of ticket, seventy
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash, So I worry about that.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: The money's coming in on the San Diego State side,
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: it looks like there, but at least you're getting a
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: better number with a why if you like Why plus seven,
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: they were on Penn State plus fifteen, sab good luck
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: to you. I agree with that one, but it is
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: not one that I really wanted to touch in any capacity.
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: I agree with ha why as well as I just
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: said a good luck to you on that one too,
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: But don't it's not anywhere close to me, don't. I
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: don't give it like love. I don't love it. I'm
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: about to give out. I have five plays now, I'm
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: about to give them all out. The games that I
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: would say are the closest to being plays for me
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: that are not plays are Kentucky plus the points, LSU
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: plus the points, and what was the other one that
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 1: I mentioned? It was mostly those two, I think, right, Yeah,
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: I mean I like those two probably more than the
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: rest that are not plays for me. So it's basically
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: those two I think are the the ones that I
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: like the most that are not my plays. So let's
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: get into my place. Oh and I guess Mississippi State
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: was somewhat close as well, So I guess maybe those
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: three so I like those three those are not plays.
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: Let's do it best bets, all right, we're gonna be
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: at least under two hours this time here. First, one up,
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: we're gonna lay the points of Texas Tech minus eleven BYU.
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: I'm done with them, man, BYU. This is gonna be
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: where it comes to an end for BYU. And people
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: are gonna look at this and say undefeated BYU, seventh
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: in the country against one lost Texas Tech, who's eighth
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: in the country. Maybe even these people might think the
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech is the better team. This is gonna be
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: an on ABC at noon. By the way, I don't
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: know if this is gonna actually be the college game
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: day game now becau LSU is so bad, But I
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: don't know. But I still think people are gonna look
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: at this and think this is way too high of
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: a number on Texas Tech. And I don't think it is.
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: I think BYU is gonna like, this is gonna be
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: where they where they get reality checked. Texas Tech up
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: from ten and a half to eleven and a half here,
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: so you're not really missing any key numbers here. I
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: saw eleven's out there a little while ago, but eleven
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: eleven and a half same thing pretty much. As of now,
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: the cash doesn't look like it's on the Texas Tech side,
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: but I've saw the number moving around a little bit
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: and it's close. So we'll see fifty four percent of
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: tickets fifty three percent of the cash in Texas Tech
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: right now. But this is another one of those spots, man,
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: where you actually have the lower ranked team in Texas
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: Tech being a favorite. And this has been a moneymaker
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: all season and I think the only loss where that
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: was the case was Oklahoma against Ole Miss, which of
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: course was one of my plays, and I think it
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: was one of the only times I actually played this spot.
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: So of course that means this will not be a
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 1: win or no, I think it will be. But yeah,
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: I mean this has been a good spot in general
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: this season, and last week I had mentioned that. I
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: think when last week we had Utah as the lower
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: ranked team against Cincinnati and yet they were like a
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: ten to ten and a half point favor and I
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: was like, that was the biggest spread that I had
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: ever seen as far as a lower ranked team being favored. Well,
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: now we have a new one where Texas Tech the
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: lower ranked team is minus eleven. I mean, it's just crazy, man.
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: But BYU, I'm gonna continue to say it. I think
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: they're massively overrated at this one. I think that the
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: most overrated team in the country. I think it's not
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: even close. I don't even think they're worthy of the
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 1: top twenty five. Oh, bol Mania is up. Hell yeah,
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna make my Bowl Mania and the College Football
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: Play a bracket challenge. Hell yeah. I'll probably do specials
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: on those as well when we get to it. But yeah,
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 1: let's I talk about the bulls the days of two.
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 1: But those lines move so much that doing the bulls
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: early be helpful as well, So maybe I'll do that.
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: But anyway, BYU, seventh in the country, nowhere near what
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: they're power rated. I mean, as you can see, they're
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: a massive underdog. Here. Oddsmaker's telling you which one of
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: these teams is a significantly better team, and it's not
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: even close. BYU, I don't even think they were top
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 1: twenty five team power ratings wise, their best win was
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: the one against Utah at home in the Holy War,
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 1: and Utah outgained them by like one hundred yards in
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: the game. Utah lost the turnover battle sloppy playing, just
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: lost the game because of that. BYU has facing an
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: unbelievably weak schedule otherwise, and then yeah, they beat me
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: when they went to Iowa State. That was kind of
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: a bullshit game too, where Iowa State just started turning
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: the ball over. So it's basically like, if you don't
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: turn the ball over against BYU, they're not gonna beat you.
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: So this BYU team not impressive owing by the way,
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: they just had a bye and people might think that
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: that's a good thing, but again, I don't think it is.
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: When you have a buy this late in the season,
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: you're eight to oh, you don't want your momentum to
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: be stopped. Man, you want to keep So I think
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: that's a bad momentum stopping by for BYU. So I
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: don't like that. Uh, Texas Tech, this is gonna be
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: easily the best opponent that they face this year, except
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: I guess, well, I know, I give love to Utah.
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: Utah was a three point favorite at BYU, But at
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: this point you gotta admit Texas Tech is better than Utah.
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech one at Utah convincingly, So yeah, this is
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: gonna be b Why use most difficult tests, and it's
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: on the road too, so easily their most difficult game.
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech. They're in a good spot here, I think
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: to do this, man, they can still win the Big twelve.
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: To a minute, I mean, this is gonna be the
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: winner of this game. It's gonna go a long way
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: to winning the Big Twelve. And Texas Tech they faced
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: a little bit more of a difficult schedule. They won
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: more convincingly against Utah. Like I said, they beat Houston,
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: which was I think a better win than what BYU has.
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 1: They lost to Arizona State, I know, but Arizona State's
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 1: a more difficult opponent of Kansas State, a little bit
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 1: more difficult too, So Texas Tech has faced a more
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: difficult conference schedule significantly than BYU has Texas Tech. Now,
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: the other thing with Texas Tech is when they lost
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: to Arizona State, they actually didn't have their quarterback. So
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech is undefeated with Morton in his quarterback and
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: he is there again now. And not only is he there,
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: but last week Texas Tech was actually in the reverse
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: injured player spot with Morton coming back in that game.
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 1: And they still want and covered against Kansas State. And
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: I know I didn't really like Texas Tech in that game.
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: I thought this was a look ahead here my man
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 1: on Marco DiAngelo a wager talk, I guess had a
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: big play on Texas Tech in that game, which he's
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: talking about, and rightfully so, because he was correct in
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 1: that one. So props to Marco on that one. I didn't.
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: I wasn't in agreement on that one, and I was
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: completely wrong. But Texas Tech, I think this is a
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 1: good spot for Texas Tech now because that was the
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: first game with Morton back, and sometimes that's the type
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 1: of game where it's the reverse injurr player spot. You
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 1: get your star back, you know, especially coming off of
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 1: blow out win without him, you might like take that
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: opponent a little bit lightly, which is another part of
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 1: the reason why I didn't love Texas Tech in that one.
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: But I was wrong. They got the job done. The
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech team did need to continue winning to make
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: sure they can try to make the Big twelve championship
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: here and now it sets up really nicely for them
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 1: to do that. They gotta win this game. This is
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: their big game left on the season. Man, I like it.
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna blow BYU out of the building,
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: lay the points with Texas Tech. That is my first
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 1: play here. Wake Forest. No, actually I already talked about
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: Wake Forest. That was somewhat close to being a player
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 1: for me as well. I agree with Wake Forest. I
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 1: don't even think it's seven though, is it. I mean
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: you might be able to find a seven out there
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: maybe tomorrow, but I think it was six and a
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: half across the board. I like it, but I don't
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 1: love it. I do think Virginia is very very overrated
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: as well, sob you're on BYO hell yeah. But yes,
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 1: I agree with wake but it's not one of my plays.
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: Next up, we're gonna play Boston College plus two ten
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 1: and a half. My boys, this is I know how
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 1: ugly this is. This is awful. The money looks like
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: it's slightly disagreeing with me for now, but come game time,
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 1: I don't think it will. The number dropped a little
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: bit from twelve to ten and a half, so not
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: really any key numbers in there. But you want to
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: get at least the ten and a half I think
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: if you can, obviously, because ten is a key number.
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 1: Sixty two percent of take it, sixty three percent of
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: the cash on SMU as of now, But I don't
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 1: like the spot at all FORSMU. The money's coming in
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 1: on the under, which is also pretty helpful. When you're
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: taking an underdog you want to Typically you want like
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 1: lower totals, which this isn't a particularly low total at
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 1: fifty four and a half, but money coming in on
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 1: the under. I like that at least, and I do
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 1: not like the spot for SMU. SMU they got three
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 1: losses now in the season, so yeah, I mean it's
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: possible they can get back to the ACC title game,
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 1: so I guess they can't really afford a loss. But
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 1: they're coming off upsetting Miami in overtime. Man, that was
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: a huge win, bouncing back from that Law to Wake
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: Forest Monster win. You got to think they're in a
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 1: bit of a letdown spot after that, Man having to
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 1: go up to BC and then and BC them and
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 1: not a team that's gonna really attract your attention. They've
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 1: been so bad this year, and then they go into
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 1: a bye, and then they got Louisville, and that Louisville
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: game is gonna be huge for SMU because that could
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 1: matter quite a bit because Louisville is another one loss
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: team in the ACC, So I think this is a
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 1: sandwich spot, even though yes, they do need to keep winning,
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 1: but man, it's gonna be a little bit difficult. And
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 1: I actually think Boston College is going to show up
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 1: for this game. BC actually showed a little bit of
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: something against Notre Dame last week. I think part of
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: it was that Notre Dame just didn't show up. Does
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: that mean BC is gonna be in a little bit
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 1: of a hangover after that because that's a rivalry game
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: against Notre Dame. I actually don't think so, because BC,
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're still winless in the conference, they still
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 1: have SMU coming to their place. They still think it's
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: gonna be a big game. BC did lose to SMU
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: on the road last year, and that was actually revenge
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 1: SMU hilariously, because BC beat them in the Fenway Bowl,
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: I think the year prior to that, if I'm remembering
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 1: that correctly. So now if there's any revenge motive, it
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: does flip to the other side to BC. But the
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 1: other reason I like this for BC is this is
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 1: the red Bandana game for BC. Man, so this is
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 1: an annual tradition. It is to honor I wish I
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: could remember his name. I can't remember his name. It's
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 1: it's in remembrance of a BC lacrosse player who became
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 1: a volunteer firefighter and died in nine to eleven, and
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 1: since then they've been doing this the Red Bandana Game.
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: It's one of their big games that they usually get
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 1: up for it. Although I mean you could argue, well,
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 1: the record isn't that good in the Red Bandanna Game.
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: They're only six and five straight up, with a win
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 1: I believe last year against Michigan State in the Red
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 1: Bandana Game. So yeah, there's six and five. I believe
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 1: they're seven and four then against the spread in this game.
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: But still they're a big home underdog here man, And
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 1: this is the type of game they do tend to
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: show up for and play well because it's a big
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 1: emotional celebration. So I do like that aspect of it.
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 1: The Red Bandana Game for BC. Again, it's a weird
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 1: spot for SMU, kind of a sandwich fun. It's late
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 1: in the season too, so it's starting to get a
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 1: little bit cooler up here, man, which maybe SMU doesn't like. Although, yeah,
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be sixty degrees, so I guess it's not
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 1: gonna be a huge factor up here. I would like
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 1: it if it was gonna be way colder tomorrow, but whatever. Still,
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 1: I don't like the spot for SMU at all. It's
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 1: a sandwich spot. We'll take the boys to Boston College,
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: which I can't even do at the at the books
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 1: legally up here because you can't play in games involving
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 1: Massachusetts schools. So if I want to play it, I
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 1: have to go to an offshore. Oh wait, I'm not
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 1: supposed to say that out loud. All right, next game
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 1: is sob was right on on this one. I guess
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 1: a Yukon plus the points. I like this one as well. Connecticut.
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 1: Where are we at here? Or actually the Yukon are?
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 1: They used to wait a they listened to Yukon? Now
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: the listen is Connecticut. Here, we're gonna fade duke here. Man.
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 1: This is at eight and a half right now I'm
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 1: in eight and a half nine still kind of no
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 1: man's land. Whatever. The number is seventy six percent tickets,
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 1: eighty three percent of the cash on Yukon. I know
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 1: it's a game with a high total, so I don't
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 1: necessarily loved eighteen points. So it's total this high in
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 1: the sixties. Although at least money is coming in on
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 1: the under a little bit. But I just think this
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 1: spot is really really bad for Duke for a number
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 1: of reasons. Gonna fade Duke Heroo. It looks like you're
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 1: probably only gonna be able to get at best eight
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 1: and a half. But as long as you can get
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 1: at least seven and a half on this, I think
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 1: it's worth it. This is at three thirty pm Eastern
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 1: on CBS Sports, which I forgot to talk about BC
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 1: being on ACC Network at twelve pm New and Eastern. Duke,
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're still in the mix for the ACC Chanceampionship.
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 1: Like I said, they're actually the favorite to win the
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: ACC which is ridiculous. They're coming off a huge game though,
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 1: winning at Clemson in a forty six to forty five
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: barn Burner, even though Clemson is down this year. That
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: is a monster win for Duke. Dude, a huge win
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 1: for Duke and they. I believe they had not won
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 1: at Clemsons It's like nineteen eighty, so it had been
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 1: whatever four plus decades since they won at Clemson. That
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 1: is a historical upset for the Duke program. Man huge
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: even though it was a I believe it was an upset,
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 1: but it was a slight upset. They have four and
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 1: a half. That's still a huge win for Duke. Now
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 1: they go to play Yukon, which, by the way, this
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 1: game doesn't even really matter to Duke because Duke needs
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 1: to win the ACC. That's what they want to do. Well,
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 1: guess what, Ucun's not in the ACC, so this is
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 1: a non conference game and it's on the road. I
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 1: could see Duke not really caring about this game. And
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 1: what do they have up next? Oh yeah, they have
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 1: Virginia up next, but they're gonna be looking ahead du
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 1: because Virginia is a top the ACE. That's a huge game.
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 1: Duke's basically gonna need to win that game. This Yukon
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 1: game legitimately doesn't matter unless Duke really cares about getting
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 1: to their six win and making a Bowl, which that's
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 1: gonna happen anyway, most likely with the weak opponents at
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 1: the end of their schedule here. And plus, Duke makes
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 1: a Bowl every year, so that's not what they're trying
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 1: to do right now. They're trying to win the ACC.
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 1: This game doesn't matter to them for Yukon. They've had
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: a good season. Yes, their bowl eligible already, which they
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 1: have been in some recent years, so that's big. But
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 1: I still think Duke coming to their place is big, man.
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, Yukon they stepped it up when they played
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 1: at Syracuse and they kind of got screwed. They should
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 1: have won that game. I mean, they were winning that
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 1: game late and somehow blew it and failed to even
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 1: cover in overtime. Just ridiculous. But they stepped it up
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 1: for that ACC game. They stepped it up at Boston
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 1: College at that ACC game. So they're two to zero
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 1: against the spread against big conference teams, both in the ACC.
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 1: So that's a good sign. The Yukond of stepped up
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 1: in class pretty well. Yes, Duke is a lot better
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 1: than both those opponents, I get that, but Yukon has
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 1: played hard against them, and I think they're going to
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's Duke coming into their place. I think
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 1: this game matters more than the remaining games on the
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 1: schedule at this point. Man. After this, you know, Yukon
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 1: they'll be headed to a bowl game whatever. But Duke
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 1: is gonna be a big game for them, So I
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 1: think Yukon will show up for it. I think the
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 1: game doesn't really matter to Duke, to be honest, and
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 1: it's a sandwich spot for Duke. Give me Connecticut Yukon
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 1: plus the points, Duke, you know, having to go up
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 1: to an unfamiliar environment there as well. As I was saying,
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's gonna be cold unfortunately though, because
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 1: it's not gonna be cold in Boston, so it's yeah,
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be around sixty degrees, so that's not really
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 1: gonna affect these Southern teams. But still I like it.
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 1: Two more plays. Next up, we're gonna take Missouri plus
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 1: seven against Texas A and M. Texas A and M
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 1: is another team that I think the stock is as
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 1: high as it's gonna get. They're up to a seven
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 1: point vay from a six point favorite here. This total
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 1: has dropped down to forty eight and a half, so
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 1: this is one where could have a bit of a
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 1: lower scoring game here, potentially at least, which means that
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 1: I like the idea of taking the points for that reason.
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 1: Although the money looks like it's actually coming in on
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 1: the over, and I've heard some arguments for an over,
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 1: so whatever, but I like the spot for Missouri here
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 1: man sixty one percent of the tickets, sixty two percent
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 1: of the couch on A and M for now. I
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 1: don't know if that's gonna last, but I do not
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: like the spot for A and M. Here Man. This
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 1: is three thirty pm Eastern on ABC, so the football games,
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: we're gonna know the results of those pretty quickly. But
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 1: Texas A and M they're undefeated and they went into
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 1: a bye. Man. Just like I said with BYU, that
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 1: is not when you want to go into a buy.
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 1: And they went into a bye Texas A and M
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 1: did beating LSU. I mean that's I think that's one
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 1: of the worst times to have a buy, because yes,
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 1: you'll be able to rest a little bit, but it
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 1: can hurt your momentum quite a bit. Man, having a
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 1: buy this late in the season and not having any
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 1: losses yet, I think that's crazy. Texas A and M
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 1: third in the country. They're not actually the third best
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 1: team in the country. I don't buy that Missouri is
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 1: sitting at twenty second rate and think Missouri men actually
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 1: be under ranked slightly too, as ridiculous as that sounds.
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 1: And I know Missouri, their quarterback is hurt now, so
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 1: we do have to take that into account, but that's
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 1: actually one of those situational angles in this game. But yeah,
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 1: A and M. I mean, this is gonna be a
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 1: third straight road game, and I know it's a buy
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 1: in between the two, and yes they did wreck LSU,
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 1: but still, I mean their other road games have been
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 1: close at the very least, so they'll good win on
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 1: the road at Notre Dame as an underdog, and then
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 1: Arkansas played them close, which is a little bit damning.
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 1: I guess that Texas A and M didn't play that
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 1: well at Arkansas. Now they're going up against Missouri, and
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 1: Missouri is a legit defense and Missouri can really really
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 1: run the football. That's what Missouri does, so the fact
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 1: that their quarterback is injured might not downgrade Missouri that
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: much because they run the football so much and play defense. Missouri, yeah,
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're not really gonna They're not gonna make
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 1: the SEC title game or anything like that, but I
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 1: think Missouri they're gonna show up for a game it'st
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 1: A and M man where it's the third ranked team
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 1: in the country. They get to maybe spoil the party here.
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 1: Missouri has been good like they've step up. They've stepped
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 1: up well at home at the very least, which really
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 1: it only was against Alabama where they did that, but
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 1: they only lost by three to Alabama, so not too
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 1: bad there. And they played well on the road against Vandy,
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 1: and I think they kind of got screwed because Vandy.
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, that was one of my plays on Missouri
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 1: in that game, and Vandy basically intentionally injured Missouri's quarterback
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 1: Pribula and rolled his ankle and whatever. Although I don't
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 1: know if Pribila is really that good. I mean, Missouri, again,
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 1: they run the football, that's what they do. That's like
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 1: what they do first, so I don't know if their
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 1: offense is gonna be that much affected. They brought in
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 1: Zalars or Zolars, so every pronounce his name in that game,
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 1: so at least it won't be his first time playing
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 1: for them this season, so he gets a little bit
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 1: of game time under his belt. At the end of
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 1: that game against Vandy, he actually wasn't terrible when he
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 1: was in there, so I think that's a decent sign
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 1: as well. And they went into a buy so I
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 1: think that's good man, because Missouri went into a buye
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 1: on a bad note, losing two of their last three
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 1: and losing to Vandy. And when that happens, I think
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 1: you use that buy to your advantage because you fix
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 1: some things and it's gonna help Zolers their quarterback there,
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 1: get him up to speeds. That buy is gonna help. Actually,
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 1: they get an extra week to game plan with the
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 1: new quarterback, the guy who they know is gonna be
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 1: their quarterback now get ready for it. Whatever. So I
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 1: think that buy came at a really good time for
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 1: Missouri in this one. And now it's gonna be the
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 1: injured player spot. But the team knows that with their
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 1: quarterback out, they're gonna have to step up their game play.
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 1: And you might get a little bit extra value on
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 1: Missouri for that reason. So that situational angle comes into
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 1: play in this game as well with Missouri. So yeah,
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 1: give me the points with Missouri and that one, and
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 1: then we're gonna have one more here. You're gonna do
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 1: Boston College moneyland, Missouri money line and uh this tech
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 1: alternate line twenty minus won twenty and a half on
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 1: a parlay, So you're parlaying, yeah, a bunch of underdogs,
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 1: I guess, and making it a massive underdog. Again. I mean,
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 1: I hate parlays just because you don't get enough value
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 1: on it, Like I would just play each of those
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 1: individually as an underdog. To be honest, teams playing off
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame are bad against the spread shit against the
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 1: spread BC. Yeah, but I mean I don't think Notre
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 1: Dame really went full throttle against BC, so I don't
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 1: really see BC being that beaten up there. I mean,
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 1: We're not gonna go five in all in these plays,
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 1: so uh, there is that. Yeah, I mean I still
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 1: like it for BC, and plus it is again it
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 1: is the red Bandana game, so I think they will
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 1: show up for it, but we'll see you. SEEF didn't
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 1: get the job done tonight man in their space game, which,
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 1: by the way, you see F was undefeated in that
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 1: game where they wear their space uniforms. Whatever that is.
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 1: I guess it has something to do with Cape Canaveral
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 1: or whatever. They were playing against Houston, the other space city,
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 1: So maybe maybe Houston got pissed and maybe Houston was like, no,
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 1: we're the space city, not you guys, whatever, and Houston
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 1: wound up winning that game. To I thought UCF might
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 1: be the right side in that one. It wasn't a play,
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 1: of course, but yeah, I mean interesting because I think
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 1: UCF was eight to oh in their space game where
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 1: they were in those uniforms and they lost. That's just ridiculous.
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 1: You were you were on UCF. Yeah, I mean, like
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 1: I said, I agreed with it, but I didn't love
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 1: it enough my final play. I don't know if any
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 1: if SOB was able to guess it or not. We're
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 1: gonna go with Auburn plus the six and a half.
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 1: I guess you can wait on this and see you
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 1: can get the seven on this. Don't know if it's
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 1: gonna happen. It looks like it was seven at some point.
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 1: I don't think you're gonna be able to get the
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 1: seven though. I don't even know if I saw the
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 1: seven out there, but I think it was mostly six
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 1: and a half. And the fact that Vandy, who was
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 1: their opponent, your is pretty public, was seventy seven percent
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 1: of the tickets and only fifty four percent of the
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 1: cash on them, and it's a low total, which I
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 1: like as well in the mid forties. The fact that
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 1: that number is still sitting at six and a half
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 1: and it's actually going down. I think that tells you
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 1: basically what you need to know that the books are
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 1: okay getting all this uh all these bets coming in
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 1: on Vandy. It just looks way too easy to lay
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 1: Vandy less than a touchdown here. But for Vandy, I
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, I think we're maybe starting to look
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 1: at dream crusher territory. The ranked sixteenth in the country. Yeah,
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 1: they're two lost SEC team. Now They're probably not gonna
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 1: make the sects idle game now, man, I think maybe
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 1: if their aspirations became like probably going into the season,
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 1: they did not have like playoff aspirations, I wouldn't think
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 1: they might have had aspirations of maybe trying to get
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 1: to that SECT title game. And now I don't think
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to So I think you could
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 1: argue they're in a dream crusher spot here, man. And
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 1: they just played four ranked teams in a row, and yes,
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 1: there was a bye after the Alabama game, but then
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 1: they came out of that and they had a month
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 1: mental win against LSU, which huge for the program because
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 1: Vandy hadn't beaten LSU I think in like decades. Then
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 1: I thought they were gonna letdown after that and they
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 1: beat Missouri and they rolled Missouri's quarterbacks and ankle and
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 1: intentionally injured him. Bullshit, But Vandy got that win, another
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 1: ranked win, and then last week Vandy was completely out
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 1: of that game. Texas was beating them thirty four to
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 1: ten late in the game and Vandy came all the
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 1: way back and cut it to three. After that effort
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 1: for Vandy to try to come back and beat Texas
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 1: a monster win, basically keeping their hopes alive. Now their
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 1: dreams are dashed after that effort. Now they gotta play
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 1: this Auburn team that looks like they're basically going nowhere. Yeah.
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 1: I think it's a bad spot for Vandy. Here man
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 1: off of just those huge games in a row, especially
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 1: the way that Texas game finished, which, by the way,
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 1: Vandy got the benefit of a really bad call with the
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 1: two point conversion on their second and last touchdown or
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 1: whatever it was there, second to last score. It was
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 1: not even close to break the plan. And I don't
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 1: understand how the Refts gave them a two point conversion
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 1: on that. Some rigging going on in that game. But
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 1: I like Auburn. This, by the way, is at four
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 1: pm Eastern on the SEC Network Auburn. They're only four
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 1: and five. Yeah, I know, it's it's been bad for them.
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 1: They're gonna get a win against Mercer after this. This
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 1: is maybe a winnable game though for Auburn. So if
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 1: they're able to win this game against Vandy, they're actually
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 1: gonna make a bowl because they'll beat Mercer next week
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 1: most likely. So last year they did not make a bowl,
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 1: so Auburn maybe at least trying to make a bowl here, man.
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 1: But I like Auburn for a bunch of reasons. I mean,
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 1: they're gonna bounce back, spot, because they're coming off the
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 1: thing that ended My Survivor. They lost as a favorite
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 1: to Kentucky is a double digit favorite, and when the
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 1: team comes off a loss is a double digit favorite.
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 1: You know. I like to be on that team in
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 1: the next game, man, because they're gonna want to bounce back.
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 1: That was embarrassing. They didn't play particularly well. It was
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 1: a close game statistically, and they lost the game really
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 1: really bad. So I think they're gonna step it up
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 1: for that reason. But of course, you know what I'm
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 1: about to say. Hugh Freeze also got fired, so Auburn
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 1: is in the fired coach spot. They fired their coach finally,
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 1: which I think is gonna spark the team as well.
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be some interim coach for the rest of
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 1: the year that's in the system already. So again, just
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 1: like I said with whatever the other team was that
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 1: I talked about, I talked about it with LSU I think,
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 1: which was not one of my plays, but close. I
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 1: think the team's gonna show up with some fire man
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 1: because maybe they didn't like the coach and or they
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 1: want to prove that the coach was the problem and
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 1: not them, so they're gonna play better. I think. Yes,
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 1: I'm a little bit worried that they haven't been as
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 1: good without Jackson Jackson Arnold. I almost said Jackson Donald.
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 1: That would be some weird mix of Jackson Jackson Dart
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 1: and Sam Darnald. That would be weird. Jackson Arnold, I believe,
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 1: was the quarterbacks name for Aubert. He went down, he's hurt.
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 1: Don't think he's coming back. They're trying to their new
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 1: quarterback in here Daniels still. I don't know if that's
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 1: a huge problem though, because Auburn does run the football
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 1: quite a bit, so I think that's what they just
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 1: got to get back to run the football, played defense.
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 1: This Auburn team really hasn't been that bad this year. Man.
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 1: I know they're four and five, they're one and five
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 1: in conference, but their conference schedule has been really difficult,
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 1: and all their losses except for Georgia were by one score,
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 1: and that was a game where the rest I think
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 1: screwed Auburn. Like I said, Auburn should have been up
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 1: seventeen and nothing in that game, and they were still
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 1: only down three late in that game. So besides that
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 1: game against Georgia, all of Auburn's other losses have been
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 1: by seven or fewer points. So especially if you get
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 1: the seven here, it's gonna be really nice. But yeah,
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 1: they've played pretty well against pretty good teams. In Oklahoma
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 1: losing by seven. A and M they lost by six,
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 1: Georgia they lost by ten, but it should have been closer.
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 1: Took Missouri into double overtime and lost by six. And
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 1: then again, yeah, they lost to Kentucky by seven. That
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 1: was their only really really bad loss out of any
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 1: of them. I mean, the rest of the losses were
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 1: not bad. I think you're gonna get a bounce back
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 1: from Auburn here, I think you're gonna see them play
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 1: competitively again this time maybe a dream crusher spot for
• 1:52:09
  Speaker 1: Vandy as well here with Vandy doesn't play as well.
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 1: So there you go. Those are the plays. Yeah, sob
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 1: you're gonna you're gonna jump on on Auburn with me there. Yeah,
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 1: the way Vandy tried to come back against Sexast, you're
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 1: on Alabama minus the points. I don't agree with that one.
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 1: I like LSU plus the points in that one. Uh,
• 1:52:33
  Speaker 1: LSU needs time with the new coach. But the way
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 1: they did right LSU, they they have that they well
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 1: it's it's not really a new coach, it's their running
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 1: back coach. He's been in the system. They just elevated him.
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 1: I mean you could you could make the same argument
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 1: with with Auburn that I just talked about. But no,
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 1: I think the fact that LSU has a new coach again,
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 1: he's an interim coach. He's in the system and they
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 1: had to buy, which I think is really helpful because
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 1: it helps him work like it helps the team work
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 1: with them. So no, it's the same thing that I
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 1: did with Florida last week. The new coach had the
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 1: buy to like, really ramp it up. It's a fire
• 1:53:05
  Speaker 1: coach spot. I think the fire coach spot is only
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 1: a positive for LSU. And yes, Alabama did nearly get upset.
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 1: That is like the one hesitation that I kind of
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 1: have with LSU. But also I think the buye might
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 1: stop Alabama's momentum. I mean, the main issue I have
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 1: with the LSU is that Alabama still needs to win
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 1: that game to make sure that they do what they
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 1: want to do this year. But I like LSU plus
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 1: the points in that game, and that was one of
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 1: the ones that I like that almost made my card.
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 1: I just had a few hesitations with it, but the
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 1: fire coach is not one of them. The fire coach
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 1: I think helps the LSU spot. That's gonna do it.
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 1: Thanks guys for hanging out the plays one more time.
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 1: Let's get back on track tomorrow, man, because this has
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 1: been bullshit on planet bullshit whatever. I forget what the
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 1: step brothers quote is. We're gonna be on Texas Tech
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 1: minus the points minus eleven or whatever. BC. I know
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 1: how ugly that one is. Red Band and a Game,
• 1:54:04
  Speaker 1: Baby plus ten and a half, Yukon plus eight and
• 1:54:07
  Speaker 1: a half, Missouri plus seven and Auburn. I guess you
• 1:54:10
  Speaker 1: could wait on that and see if you can get
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 1: the seven. I don't think it's gonna happen, though, I'd
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 1: still do it at six and a half, maybe put
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 1: a little bit less money on it, but Auburn to
• 1:54:18
  Speaker 1: finish off the slate. Let's get some wins. Learn it
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 1: tone on Twitter, Learn it tone on Instagram. Thanks guys
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 1: for hanging out, like subscribe to the channel here, give
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 1: me some positive comments. Always appreciated. I appreciate you guys
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 1: hanging out too. Man. Also listen to me on audio
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 1: that helps me out as well. Good review on audio
• 1:54:37
  Speaker 1: and Apple and Spotify that helps me out. Covered in
• 1:54:40
  Speaker 1: yuke on YouTube as my Yuke channels. You can check
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 1: out my yuke content there as well, and Patreon dot
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 1: com sows learned to toe. You can help me out
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 1: there and you get bonus Yuke content Spotify feed that.
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 1: I know I have to. I'm like two covers behind
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 1: on that. My voice has been dead, so I haven't
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 1: been doing covers recently, but I got to get back
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 1: to it. Obviously, this show is making my voice dead, though,
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 1: so I don't want to do I have to. Maybe
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 1: I just have to stop shouting into the microphone. You
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 1: know what I mean? Can you guys still hear me
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 1: when I talk like this? I don't know, I don't know.
• 1:55:11
  Speaker 1: I get all excited. I gotta figure out something. I
• 1:55:14
  Speaker 1: gotta get used to not talking as loud and maybe
• 1:55:16
  Speaker 1: just ramp my microphone up a little bit. Maybe that's
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 1: what I gotta do. And then what else is I
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 1: gonna say? I think that's it. I'm oh and yeah,
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 1: that's it. The Patreon and you get a request at
• 1:55:26
  Speaker 1: the highest level as well for you. That's gonna do it.
• 1:55:29
  Speaker 1: I'll be back in the morning because we're gonna have to.
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be a long show in the morning, probably too,
• 1:55:33
  Speaker 1: because we've got college basketball, though it's not gonna be
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 1: one of those monster college basketball Saturdays like we're gonna
• 1:55:39
  Speaker 1: get soon. But I gotta talk about that. And there
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 1: will be NHLs usually big on Saturday, and I think
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 1: kind of a limited NBA card, but I got to
• 1:55:46
  Speaker 1: a board. But I'm gonna talk about it tomorrow. We're
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 1: gonna try to bounce back in a big way tomorrow.
• 1:55:51
  Speaker 1: So let's do it. Let's get some wins tomorrow. Let's
• 1:55:53
  Speaker 1: get some sleep right now, peace until tomorrow morning, guys,