Rory Johnston: Global Oil Market Shattered - Iran War and Tanker Rate Explosion

The Competent Investor · Oct 19, 2026 · 46m

I've had Rory Johnston on before, but this conversation felt different. The oil market Rory describes isn't just tight—it's structurally broken in ways we've never seen.

We started with the SPR, and Rory's view is more aggressive than most. "I have a very low theoretical bottom of the SPR relative to a lot of analysts," he told me. "I think functionally the floor is zero barrels." The draws have ended for this tranche, but DOE is soliciting the final 40 million barrels, and Rory expects we'll blow past the 250-260 million barrel level everyone assumes is sacred.

Then we got to what Rory calls…