Latest / Kinesis Money / Silver's Bull Market Is Just Getting Started Ft. Peter Krauth - LFTV Ep 286

Transcript

Silver's Bull Market Is Just Getting Started Ft. Peter Krauth - LFTV Ep 286 · Kinesis Money

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: It took 45 years for silver to go back to$50 from 1980 to 2025, and then took three months to double to 100.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: So that's that's almost a definition of a mania.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_01: We've got this ticket.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to Life and the Vault, brought to you by Kinesis Money.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_01: And this is the show that goes beyond the headlines to uncover the truth about the gold and silver markets with world renowned whistleblower and industry expert Andrew McGuire.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: And this week, he's joined in the vault by another special featured guest.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_01: And this, we're talking about Peter Cruml.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: And uh we're excited to have him here.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_01: You're just not gonna want to miss a word of this conversation.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: We're talking gold and silver, and again, fasten your seatbelt.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_01: So let's head over to the UK and join Andrew Maguire and our featured guest, Peter Cruml.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_01: Over to you, Andrew.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_02: Well, welcome, Peter.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_02: It's great to have you back again.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and uh we were you were well received last time, and we had a ton of people asking for you to come back.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_02: So thank you.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: Well, uh Andrew, it's a pleasure.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: I'm I'm certainly happy to be back, and I uh I must say I thoroughly enjoy our conversations.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_02: Well, I think our subscribers um will, and anyone that that that's a subscriber to you as well, uh, would be very pleased.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_02: Um, because I know, Peter, I know you went long silver very openly around a month ago.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: That's right.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_02: Well, can they tell us about what drove you, what inspired you to take that moment where everyone was down, everyone was looking at silver as if it was dead in the water, and the amount of bearish comments out there, and you went out and board.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_02: So tell us what made you do that.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: So, Andrew, I mean, you know, part of it is I'm gonna say I'm not a big technical analyst, but I do think it has important uh value.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: Um, there are lots of people who follow technicals, and if nothing more, for that reason, it has some impact because many people do pay attention to them.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so about a month ago, mid-July, uh, silver was under$56.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_00: And if you look back about a year, um, silver found that to be a bit of a um, I guess, a ceiling uh overhead resistance.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm gonna say this was sort of uh early to mid-October, and then again, second time um in early November.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: So I felt that if it was testing those levels where um it had previously been sort of overhead resistance, that it could serve as what we call um support.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: So I was willing to um, you know, uh put my money where my mouth was and and uh do some buying, both of some physical and some uh stocks, and uh put some cash to action.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_00: And so um at least so far it's been good.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: I will say that uh some stocks have pulled back, uh, sort of chested a um a second low since that point.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: Um most have not hit those previous lows.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: So so far is looking quite good.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so yeah, I mean, those uh part so that's that's sort of the I guess the technical side of it.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: And then the other part of it is uh, you know, just being in these markets for several decades.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: And after a while, you get a sense of when things just feel sort of too cheap, um, sentiment essentially at some point hits a low.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: And when there's no one left to sell, well, then uh the buyers come in.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: And uh I'm I'm glad to have been have been one of those.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_02: Well, Peter, it's experience, and and I think um it's like an out uh whatever what you want to call it, it's like an algorithm in your own in your own head.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_02: It's it's you know, it it's just an aggregation of information, and you go, you know what, that's that's for me.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_02: And I think one of the interesting things I know, and that because I know you are very big uh on uh uh bullish on silver miners, but you've always said in the past it often lag, they often lag price.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_02: So now we see a a bit of a lag at this point.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_02: What what what it what's your view?
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: So my view is that um the uh we still haven't completely had um at least the the broader investing public uh price in these these higher silver prices, right?
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_00: Because if you look back uh over a year, honestly, um, you know, silver was, I'm gonna look at a quick chart now, but a year ago, silver was sub-40.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: Um we're at$65 today.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, anybody who's complaining about$65 really, uh maybe they bought at$100 or$120, and that's why they're complaining.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: But if you've bought a few years ago or even a year ago, my goodness, I mean, you're up um, what is it, uh 70-80%?
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: It's just uh tremendous.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, no reason to complain.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_00: The the thing is that um I think the broader investing public has not uh started to price in.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: Even analysts are starting to review their models, I think, and and and start starting to use higher prices.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: They do look backwards, so they take averages over, say, the previous year or so.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: And so that's gonna start to feed into their models and and and to use higher average silver prices.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, but they, you know, they need to see these higher prices sustained and and probably go through at least three or four quarters.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, the big quarters were um the third quarter of last year and then the last couple of quarters.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: So I think that by the time we get into Q4, we're really going to start to see things move.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: Um, they are going to start to reprice um their uh targets on silver stocks.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: And uh I think more realistically, they're going to be a lot higher.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_00: Again, you know, compared to a year ago,$65 silver today versus say$37 or so dollars um 12 months ago is just tremendous.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: Uh as I say, almost 80% higher.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: We're seeing it in the uh reported Q1 and Q2 from um silver producers.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, they set records in Q1, they're close to their records in Q2.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: In fact, many of them production is higher.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: So they produced more silver ounces than they did in Q1, but because silver has pulled back, profits are below perhaps Q1, but still tremendous.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: And in some cases, two, 300% year over year.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: So um, you know, these are true cash machines.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: Um, there was an interesting chart by uh someone you probably know, and many of your viewers probably also know Tabby Costa, who's uh quite popular on X and so on.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: His charts are fantastic.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: He does great macro research.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_00: And uh a few months back he put out a chart that uh looked at the subsectors of the SP and um compared that to uh the largest, I think it was the largest 50 gold and silver miners on the SP.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_00: And um by far uh they were the most cash flow um uh profitable uh sector of any.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: The second most profitable was tech, and that was at 17%.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_00: Gold and silver miners were at 31%.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: So it was uh, you know, it just it just shows you that there's going to be a rotation.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: Um, I think once we see that um the broader markets at some point are going to start to falter, uh, the smart money or the smarter money will be, will be early and start to rotate out of um tech and and broader markets and we'll look for areas that are uh tremendously undervalued.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: And this has to be uh amongst the top, if not the top sector.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_00: So I think we're gonna see start to see a lot of money flow into this space, and uh all of these uh or or most of these names will start to get repriced upwards.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_00: Uh and so, you know, the opportunity is still there.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: I think people need to uh grasp it and and and act on it.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_02: That's interesting, and especially uh what I find it's very interesting because I'm getting similar feedback from the most odd places and people who've never even spoken the word silver before.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_02: And now you speak and attend at a lot of the major mining conferences, which is in fact that's where I got to hear about you in the first place.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_02: Now, Peter, I know that some very large family offices have approached us and hedge funds.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_02: And now these people attend these conferences.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_02: Are you getting any reports or buy interest from any of these big royal funds?
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_00: So uh interestingly enough, there's a lot of interest.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_00: Um I think the actions have yet to follow, which is good for us because that still spells opportunity.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_00: But um, so anecdotally, I've seen, like you, that there's been a lot of interest uh from family offices, for example.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: Uh what I find kind of um, I'm just gonna say honestly, a little tongue in cheek, a little bit here, that you know, they're they're uh by some they're called the smart money.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: But if they're not even in this space yet, how smart are they, right?
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: So I'll I'll say that.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: So that I'll those are my two cents on that.
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_00: But um I have been, as you say, at many of these conferences.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_00: And if I go back especially to, so this is maybe we're gonna say a month or two after the peak in silver and in gold, which uh were sort of late January.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_00: And um PDAC, the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada, has uh the world's largest mining conference, which takes place in in Toronto every year at the beginning of March, usually.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_00: So I was there and uh participated uh in some meetings, some dinners and so on.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm at uh a pretty large dinner, in fact.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_00: And at one point, uh someone I know with a junior mining company comes over to me and says, uh Peter, you have to you have to meet this guy.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: And I said, Okay, let's whatever, let's go off and talk to him.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_00: And so he introduces himself and and he works um as a as a portfolio manager for one of Canada's largest uh hedge funds.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_00: And so they allocate to different sectors and they have specialties amongst different sectors.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_00: And he's saying to me, you know, so this was the sort of the first day of of this of this conference, the first evening.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: And he was at the conference, so he saw what was going on, he had seen what had been happening in in uh gold and silver uh themselves, and then the stocks, which had, of course, uh reacted significantly over the previous sort of quarter or two.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_00: And he was saying, I have to drag my boss's butt down here.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: He's got to see what's going on because um we feel that we we've been you know running funds for 30 years.
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_00: We are not at all allocated to this sector.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm realizing that we are missing uh a huge boat if we do not get involved as soon as possible.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_00: He says we have half a billion dollars to allocate.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: We do not have the expertise for it.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_00: Um, he asked me if I knew entire teams that they could potentially buy from other um managers, other institutions, um, teams of analysts, researchers, fund managers, because they don't, as I say, they don't have the expertise in-house.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_00: So they they know, they knew, they needed to get involved, they recognize it didn't have the capability.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not completely surprised because this is a very cyclical sector.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_00: Resources, commodities are very cyclical.
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_00: So you don't get that many um sort of broader, uh larger institutional managers that will have a permanent sort of full-time dedicated team to this.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_00: They will come and go and they'll they'll follow um, you know, the uh they'll they'll follow the trends, so to speak.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: But this is in an undeniable upward trend.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: And uh that to me was was very revealing.
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_00: The other thing that also at that same conference was that I was chatting uh to some uh some uh smaller mining companies, some explorers and some uh sort of newer producers.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: And they were telling me that I believe it was a few months, a few weeks prior, they had been to uh the BMO uh conference, I think that took place in Florida uh in February or so.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_00: And what they saw uh was very different from previous years, in fact, shocked them.
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_00: Um, many of the of the uh fund management uh houses had not only sent uh analysts, but had sent entire teams, fund managers, analysts, whereas a year or other in previous years, they would have sent maybe one or two people.
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_00: They sent their entire teams this time.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_00: And they were asking the same kinds of questions.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_00: How do we get how do we get started?
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_00: How do we get involved?
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, and and these are professionals.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_00: You it's it's almost shocking to to hear these kinds of questions from them.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: But this sector is quite foreign to them, it seems.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_00: And so it is, I'm gonna say, relatively niche.
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, commodities is a broad sector, but I guess involving, you know, uh investing in the um in the equities per se is not all that common.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, although you would think in Canada, it it, you know, being a big resource producer, it's it's a little more commonplace.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_00: But we don't have the largest uh sort of, I guess, uh fund management sector.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_00: It's it's reasonable.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_00: We have a decent, you know, we have decent markets, stock markets, et cetera.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but uh it just goes to show you, uh uh, Andrew, that um, you know, it's it's early days.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: Um this the so-called smart money is at least waking up now and starting to realize they do not have the exposure that they need.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and and they're starting to at least slowly act on it.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_00: So that's um that to me is a call to action, absolutely.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, we're talking about whale footprints here into a silver market which has had so little interest.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_02: Now, I mean, uh to be to be honest, I'm thinking to myself, and that you're talking, I'm getting the same feedback.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_02: But this is this is not a happenstance.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_02: This is um this is happening everywhere.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_02: Now, when that becomes a move, a movement, and and I believe it is already, because as you say, people are looking for alternate asset classes and and real assets, real assets are right across the board, all real assets now are are become very, very, very attractive.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_02: Um so I'm thinking this you know how small when I say small, how how limited this silver market is.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_02: Now, if just a fraction, you mentioned one number, and then there are multiple other um other uh funds, hedge funds, family offices, when they put money to work, it's never small.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_02: They they want to they want to have diversity, they want to uh they want to go long, they want exposure on on multiple time frames, and they're not gonna be shaken out.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_02: These people are not scared when they move in, as you say, they're professionals, but maybe the fact that they haven't been in before means they are professionals because it was kind of too volatile.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_02: Now they're looking at uh a market that's being set outside of the West, we're seeing uh this is an incredible change in in structure.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_02: Um so Peter, if one percent of that number you mentioned and extrapolate that out with uh multiple family offices, what what would that do to the silver price and what would that do to the miners?
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I think we've had a a foretaste of it back in uh in December and January when things went a bit crazy.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_00: And uh, you know, I like to say it took 45 years for silver to go back to$50 um from 1980 to 2025, and then it took three months to double to 100.
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_00: So that's that's almost a definition of a mania.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_00: What I find interesting though is that I had put out a chart that I came across, and it was a general chart for um what a bull market looks like in any asset, really, in general.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_00: And it was very interesting because I mean, they will always be different.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_00: And so you get this kind of you know, initial rise.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna do this in reverse so that your viewers can follow, but you know, the mark the price of the asset goes up, get a bit of correction, some really, really early mini has come in, and then get a little correction, and then the so-called really sort of smart money starts to wake up and gets more involved.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_00: Then you get this big, you know, rise in the asset price, and eventually it gets way overpriced, and then it falls back off and it corrects significantly.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_00: So uh what I found interesting is that in that, so I think that um at the very least, the last couple of years were that first rise in in the asset price, silver uh in particular.
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_00: And then that you get that small correction.
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_00: Well, what was interesting is the person who had put this chart together, uh, this was a finance professor, and said, you know, that first bump and correction um was bear trap.
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_00: So I think that's important for people to realize is that that correction, I think that the correction that we had in in January at um, you know, from$120.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_00: And by the way, I was at a conference, I think it was a day or two before that.
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_00: Silver was probably at about 105 or 110.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_00: And I said, this is getting kind of crazy.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_00: Look for a correction.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_00: Do not expect this to last at least 40% would be unsurprising.
• 18:23
  SPEAKER_00: And within probably a matter of a week, we were at$67, you know, intraday.
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_00: It bounced back after that, moved up sideways, and then back down, at least so far until uh last month.
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_00: But my point being that that run-up, uh, that first run-up in the chart, I believe, you know, uh, although it's it's representative of what a bull market kind of how a typical bull market behaves, what we saw in silver was, you know, if you adjust for how it acted, it would have been a lot, you know, sort of steeper that first run-up.
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_00: Important point being the bear trap.
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_00: I believe that if we follow that model, the bear trap is what happened post-peak at$121 around January 28th or 29th.
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you had this dramatic correction.
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_00: The the dumb money got scared out, had probably bought at 80, 90, or 100, hoping, expecting it was going to continue to just keep running, and will probably never come back.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_00: And that's your bear trap.
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_00: So they think that we are now in a new bear.
• 19:28
  SPEAKER_00: And I believe that's totally wrong.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_00: It is a correction, a temporary correction.
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_00: And the fact that we have held above$50, which was the previous peak for 45 years, we've solidly held, we've not even touched that so far.
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_00: Um, in in uh, we're getting close to a year now.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_00: It's been about 10 months.
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_00: Um, I think that that's proof that um we are uh we are in an ongoing uh bull market.
• 19:56
  SPEAKER_00: You know, this is the potential.
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_00: A couple of other points I wanted to mention that relate to what you were saying earlier.
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_00: Um how uh this is a this is a small uh slice of the market.
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_00: To give you some idea, if you go back to um looking at some some notes here, but if you go back to uh April of 2026, the entire public silver mining industry was about um about 82 billion, 92 billion dollars.
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_00: The entire gold mining industry was$1.5 trillion.
• 20:32
  SPEAKER_00: Um the silver mining industry is something like less than a tenth of the gold mining industry, more like maybe 7 or 8% of the gold mining industry.
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_00: So, why is that important?
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I think that what we saw happen in gold uh in silver stocks, uh especially earlier this year, where many ran up and then corrected pretty significantly, um, is well described by another uh little bit of research that tells us that silver miners benefit from what we call a scarcity premium.
• 21:05
  SPEAKER_00: If you look at the price to net asset value of the four largest gold stocks, um going back a few months, they were trading at about 1.3 times price to net asset value.
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_00: The four largest silver producers were trading at 2.1 times uh price to net asset value.
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_00: So that discrepancy um is almost entirely, almost certainly because of scarcity.
• 21:32
  SPEAKER_00: There are so fewer names to be able to invest in in the silver space, whether that's juniors or um or producers, that when the money flows in, they get they get priced and they get valued um at a multiple of the gold producers.
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_00: So um, this is a narrow space, it's volatile.
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_00: Um, I don't believe that that's a reason for people to be afraid of it and and shy away from it.
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_00: I think they need to use that volatility to their advantage.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_00: Um, take some profits when you've had some significant run-ups.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_00: That's what I do.
• 22:04
  SPEAKER_00: That's what I tell my subscribers to do.
• 22:06
  SPEAKER_00: And then we wait it out.
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_00: Could be, you know, a matter of a few months, a couple of quarters.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_00: And then, as I as you mentioned earlier, I've been telling subscribers over the past couple of months, um, you know, your your risk at these uh levels, um, your downside risk is very low.
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_00: I believe it's time to start, if not, I'm not saying, you know, go all in, start initiating positions, start adding to existing positions where you feel you don't have enough exposure and um your risk is low, and and uh it's been it's been performing quite nicely since then.
• 22:40
  SPEAKER_00: So um that's the approach that uh that we take.
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and and you're absolutely right.
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_02: And I think the eyes wide open.
• 22:48
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, let's let's let's let we know how this pricing has been set.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_02: It's been set in the derivative markets, it's been set nothing to do with physical metal at all, very little to do with physical battle.
• 22:59
  SPEAKER_02: So, so essentially, when that price silver went up to 120 bucks or whatever it was, um what kept one eye on the naked long momentum traders who are always right in the middle, but they're wrong at both ends.
• 23:17
  SPEAKER_02: Always, always, always.
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_02: So and they don't care, they don't care.
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_02: And and and so, and they actually control pretty much 80% of all the open interest, as they do in oil.
• 23:28
  SPEAKER_02: So it's really a a game to them.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_02: So but I think layer within that the very fact is that also we have the professionals who come in and say, you know what, on a short-term basis, I can see that it's getting a bit ballooned, but on when I have a longer-term view, I see silver at 100, 200, 300 bucks, or whatever it might be, I see silver in the future.
• 23:56
  SPEAKER_02: So on a five-year perspective, um what's happened, what happened is the reason I think it came back to previous resistance of 50 because these guys are sticky.
• 24:09
  SPEAKER_02: They they you cannot rinse these guys out because yes, there's some fluff to come out, but along the way, they've come in and you will not rinse that.
• 24:19
  SPEAKER_02: And it's the same with gold.
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_02: You cannot rinse that out.
• 24:22
  SPEAKER_02: These are and unfortunately, a lot of these people, and I say unfortunately, a lot of the hedge funds and um some of the half-family offices, mostly the hedge funds, have no mandate to own physical gold.
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_02: They forced into an ETF, which is not really that's a derivative uh product, really.
• 24:43
  SPEAKER_02: And and so it's easy to gain.
• 24:45
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, so if you are a market maker and you control that derivative open interest, there are times you can just decide, well, let's increase the margins, one, two, three, which they did at the time.
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_02: Uh you know then that's gonna pop the bubble.
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_02: And that's exactly what happened.
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_02: But uh within that, there is uh, as you say, this this underlying professionals.
• 25:10
  SPEAKER_02: And that's why I think you're right, you're absolutely right.
• 25:13
  SPEAKER_02: That was support.
• 25:14
  SPEAKER_02: And in fact, I think support's probably 60, but but I mean, and and and rising, but I think um that is interesting what you say, because it it this is why it's important to have eyes wide open, like you'd have, and like George subscribers, you're gonna be a bit bit heady at this point.
• 25:34
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 25:35
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and as you say, if you look at the bigger picture, you know, people were looking all for all sorts of reasons why uh, you know, silver should uh correct and crash and and never never run again.
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, one of them was, oh, okay, and and and I certainly agree, you know, solar panels, for example, are 20% of uh consumption uh of silver every year.
• 25:59
  SPEAKER_00: And as the price goes up, they get more expensive.
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, but there are all sorts of reasons why um uptake of solar panels, I'm not saying at you know, two or three hundred dollar silver, but even at perhaps eighty or a hundred dollar silver, still looks pretty attractive.
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_00: Um, one great example that I have is uh some research by a company called Ember.
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_00: And what they did was they they compared um a couple of sources of energy, natural gas versus solar panels, for example.
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_00: And they said, if you have$100 million and you want to generate one and a half terawatts for one year, um, you have let's look at these two options.
• 26:40
  SPEAKER_00: You could spend that$100 million and get a one and a half terawatts of electricity from natural gas for one year.
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_00: You could spend that same$100 million, get one and a half terawatts of energy of electricity from solar panels, but you're getting that for 25 years.
• 26:58
  SPEAKER_00: So because the solar panels will last and still generate that same amount of output each and every year.
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, and then you've got the the the argument of um, you know, because uh people are or manufacturers are looking for substitutes for silver because the silver price has gone up and there's this concern about uh them switching over to something like copper.
• 27:20
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I've heard uh and read anecdotally that some of that may be happening, uh, but there are a lot of arguments against uh against copper, for example.
• 27:31
  SPEAKER_00: It does not last as long, it corrodes, it's nowhere near as efficient as the silver solar panel.
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_00: So you may be paying less for those panels.
• 27:39
  SPEAKER_00: You're gonna be replacing them sooner.
• 27:41
  SPEAKER_00: You won't get the same output.
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_00: And um, you know, um a solar farm is is pretty quick to permit and to to put up and to build, um, but you're still looking at um a fair bit of of labor to get that thing set up, hooked up, and so on.
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_00: So, do you want to do that when you know it may be good for five years or eight years versus spending more?
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_00: Perhaps uh I I don't know, perhaps the cost is even double.
• 28:09
  SPEAKER_00: But if you're getting, you know, reliability, you're getting efficiency, you're getting three times the life out of it, I think uh, you know, the the um the the buyers of those panels will will have second thoughts.
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_00: And uh you're in the UK, Andy.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_00: I have a really interesting anecdote, which was which goes back to um, I believe it was March or so, which was uh post-war, the start of the war in Iran.
• 28:34
  SPEAKER_00: And um there uh was a report.
• 28:36
  SPEAKER_00: Um, we can find that, it's easy.
• 28:38
  SPEAKER_00: Uh I it was pointed out to me, but um, there was uh a news, uh a news article about um uh octopus energy, largest electricity provider in the UK.
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_00: Um, they noted that sales of solar panels, because uh gasoline heating oil had shot up uh tremendously after the war uh started, and 20% of oil was was shut off in the Strait of Hormuz, basically overnight.
• 29:06
  SPEAKER_00: Um, sales of solar panels shot up by 50% in the first part in the first few months of this year, um, because people were looking for alternatives.
• 29:15
  SPEAKER_00: They said, you know, price for heating oil is is crazy.
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_00: Um, gasoline prices had shot up.
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, we want to have prices that are a lot more predictable.
• 29:25
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm I'm convinced that you have lots of sovereign consumers, lots of large manufacturing consumers saying the same thing.
• 29:33
  SPEAKER_00: I need my my access to oil, I need my access to the electricity or the energy that I that I derive from that.
• 29:42
  SPEAKER_00: I can't I can't be subject to these major shocks.
• 29:46
  SPEAKER_00: I'm prepared to reshore, onshore, friendshore my my uh my uh sources of energy, pay more for it, have a long-term contract, pay, be willing to pay more uh, you know, for for security um of that source of energy.
• 30:03
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but guess what's gonna happen?
• 30:04
  SPEAKER_00: That's gonna feed into higher prices.
• 30:06
  SPEAKER_00: It's just gonna automatically uh mean more inflation.
• 30:10
  SPEAKER_00: They're they're going to, you know, perhaps initially uh for a very little while absorb some of these higher costs, but you can bet um they need to stay profitable and they're gonna pass them on.
• 30:20
  SPEAKER_00: One way or the other, um, all of this is pointing to higher prices for precious metals, one way or another.
• 30:27
  SPEAKER_00: And uh and silver, I believe, has, you know, a lot uh to gain from uh from the way things are heading.
• 30:33
  SPEAKER_02: Yes, and I think I think silver also benefits as the as the sister of um or the related to gold.
• 30:40
  SPEAKER_02: Um I mean, we've got a tremendous bullish structure in gold where we have um price discovery now um uh moving into the Hong Kong SGE physical, physically settled architecture, uh, which is absolutely is becoming so liquid, and this is a definite coup for China to take control, and it's not that's just Hong Kong's just one uh of these corridors, the next corridor is Singapore, the Saudi, Africa, it goes across it's Latin America, all these corridors, our this architecture is spreading now, but because we have now we now got a competing fix, physically settled fix called the HAU in gold.
• 31:33
  SPEAKER_02: Now that impacts how you settle silver.
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_02: Because if I'm a refiner, if I'm a hedger, if I'm an institutional, I don't want to play in the paper derivative sandpit.
• 31:47
  SPEAKER_02: I want a physically determined price that I can be assured of.
• 31:51
  SPEAKER_02: I then view it as even though silver's not like high quality liquid asset, I can view it that way because I can collateralize it, because I know the price, and I can actually hedge it and do it.
• 32:02
  SPEAKER_02: So, really, what I'm saying is London is losing liquidity, and the the old global price setting hub for silver is move is is migrating.
• 32:15
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you, Gold, for doing this, but it's migrating into physically settled architecture.
• 32:23
  SPEAKER_02: Peter, that has to be a big deal as far as price discovery goes.
• 32:30
  SPEAKER_00: I totally agree, Andy.
• 32:32
  SPEAKER_00: And uh, you know, um uh I had uh read also a couple of months back that uh in India, I can't remember the specifics exactly, but uh there was a report that uh they were going to no longer rely on pricing from the West, they were going to be relying on um pricing at home.
• 32:51
  SPEAKER_00: What how the price at which gold and silver is being settled at home was um, and and I think perfectly rightly so, uh, was being considered more proper, more realistic, and uh the right way to do business.
• 33:05
  SPEAKER_00: And so um, as you say, Hong Kong, Singapore, uh, India's doing the same thing now.
• 33:12
  SPEAKER_00: And uh who can blame them?
• 33:14
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's a very healthy thing, frankly, for the market in general.
• 33:17
  SPEAKER_00: Should have been that way um, you know, decades or or or longer ago.
• 33:22
  SPEAKER_00: But uh um at the very least, we're finally moving there, and uh it's it's a definitely a good thing.
• 33:28
  SPEAKER_02: And I think um uh finally, and I know you've got a hard close here today, but but essentially finally, um when we we see Deutsche Bank, we see various banks coming out with price discovery for gold and silver, what they're doing is they're basing it on history, which is based on synthetic price discovery.
• 33:48
  SPEAKER_02: Now that we're exiting and moving into physical price discovery, and that is now being arbitrage, that's forcing an arbitrage into the paper markets in London, because if I see that a price 10 bucks lower, I'm taking it, of course.
• 34:03
  SPEAKER_02: It's a no-brainer, and it doesn't cost me that much to ship a 400-ounce bar out.
• 34:08
  SPEAKER_02: So the same with sewer.
• 34:09
  SPEAKER_02: So so the thing is, I think this is a huge, a huge change in in behavior.
• 34:17
  SPEAKER_02: And I think uh to me, um to be honest, this this to me is uh manna from heaven because all you and I want to know, all our clients want to know, all everyone that we interact with wants to know is what's the price?
• 34:32
  SPEAKER_02: What is it?
• 34:33
  SPEAKER_02: You know, not I don't want to play that game.
• 34:36
  SPEAKER_02: And and I think as that price now becomes fixed, a lot of these technical analysts are getting it wrong.
• 34:44
  SPEAKER_02: They're they're picking prices that are based in a redundant history.
• 34:50
  SPEAKER_02: And now we need to look forward and say, well, the technicals will be set, they will become the the determinant in the future, but based on real facts.
• 35:02
  SPEAKER_00: I agree, Andy.
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_00: Uh great points, and uh absolutely it can only be a better, healthier thing for for this market.
• 35:09
  SPEAKER_00: And as you say, people just want uh the proper, true, real, basic, fair, honest info.
• 35:17
  SPEAKER_00: What is this commodity trading at, uh you know, trading hands at right now?
• 35:23
  SPEAKER_00: That that's all I want to know because this this is how I'm making decisions.
• 35:28
  SPEAKER_00: And so that's what they deserve, frankly.
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_00: They deserve that exact kind of uh uh fair, true, transparent information.
• 35:35
  SPEAKER_02: Well, Peter, you you offer a great service, uh, and you have a a news a letter that goes out to your subscribers on a regular basis.
• 35:43
  SPEAKER_02: We're going to put the link to it.
• 35:45
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and obviously you do you're looking at not just you're looking holistically, you're also looking at the miners and you're looking at the whole picture.
• 35:52
  SPEAKER_02: That's a very specialized subject and something which I think you need a specialist for.
• 35:57
  SPEAKER_02: So I do encourage people um who are interested in this uh area uh and who are even those that are already interested in this area, but who are looking to get into this area.
• 36:08
  SPEAKER_02: Um, you need you need proper advice so you can make essentially better decisions for yourself.
• 36:15
  SPEAKER_02: And I think that's the key here.
• 36:17
  SPEAKER_02: So I would encourage people to land on your site, um have a good look through what you do.
• 36:24
  SPEAKER_02: Um uh the subscription options for them, and really I would encourage that.
• 36:30
  SPEAKER_02: But Peter, um, I really thank you for joining us, and I would encourage people to come and visit you.
• 36:36
  SPEAKER_00: Been a pleasure, Andy, as always, and uh uh always some stimulating uh conversation and uh certainly always, of course, looking forward to uh the next opportunity.
• 36:46
  SPEAKER_02: Great stuff, Peter.
• 36:47
  SPEAKER_01: Bless you.
• 36:48
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
• 36:49
  SPEAKER_01: All right, thanks for joining us on this episode of Live for the Vault, brought to you by Kinesis Money.
• 36:54
  SPEAKER_01: And a huge thanks to Andrew McGuire and our featured guest, Peter Crumble, for cutting through the noise and sharing insights that you just won't find anywhere else.
• 37:04
  SPEAKER_01: Now, if you like this episode, make sure you subscribe and turn on the notifications so you never miss out.
• 37:10
  SPEAKER_01: And don't forget to share this episode with someone who really needs to hear the real story behind the headlines.
• 37:16
  SPEAKER_01: Now we're back soon with more hard-hitting truth from Inside the Precious Metal Space.
• 37:21
  SPEAKER_01: And until then, thanks for watching, and we'll see you right here on Life of the Mulk.
• 37:27
  SPEAKER_01: Bye for now.