Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / BREAKING: FED *Just* Flipped 📈 + Stock Market News 08 March 2024

Transcript

BREAKING: FED *Just* Flipped 📈 + Stock Market News 08 March 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Thanks and welcome to this live stream.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: We've got insane jobstater out, we've got Fed president Powell, chair Powell, even flipping and we've got Nvidia at $19,000.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Just kidding, got Bitcoin flying off the anything.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Yields are coming down, which is a good thing for you and me as stock investors, and I want to explain it all to you.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: So you are the best informed investor out there.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Share a little bit of the invest in banker wisdom that I took with me.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Not that much of it, but there is a touch and I'm happy to share it with you.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: Before we do that, we're doing something exciting.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: We're doing a live trading training in the evening next week.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Because you guys sent me a bunch of emails, a lot of emails saying I might work.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I can never attend it and I know I threatened I wouldn't do another one, but this is actually nice for me because it's early in the morning my time.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: So come and join me on Tuesday, 8pm Eastern time, and I will teach you how we trade one stock, three rules, 75% win ratio and how that helped us do this, which is we made 126% in 2022, under the 5% in 2023.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: That's always returning capital employed, and so far this year we are up about $4,000 on an approximately $30,000 portfolio.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: We've won 73% of our trade so far this year.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: You want to learn how we do that?
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Come and join me.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Felixfriendsorg slash.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: Where is it?
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Webinar?
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: There it is, felixfriendsorg slash.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Webinar Link is down below in the description.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: At least it should be.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: If not, you'd love to learn to type, which would be something.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: So let's have a look at this.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: This is the data just out from the Looking for polite word for statisticians, I couldn't really think of one.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Anyway, let's color code this like we're 10, because I'm kind of about as mature as a 10-year-old.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Non-farm payroll is way higher than expected.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Apparently, we generated 80,000 jobs more, approximately, than expected.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: That should be a terrible thing for the weird people at the Fed.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Why terrible?
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Because it means it's inflation.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: It means the economy is expanding, the higher interest rates haven't done their job and therefore they won't be able to cut rates, and us, as cold-hearted Wall Street capitalists, would prefer a lot of unemployed people.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: So our portfolios go up.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Well, that's what the Fed would like you to think.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: At the same time, the unemployment rate has gone up unexpectedly 0.2%.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: That, in a weird way, is a positive for the stock market.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Now you're going to say, felix, how can we create more jobs and more unemployed people at the same time?
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Well, when you've been massaging the numbers really hard for the last year and a half, strange things are likely to pop out.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: So I don't really believe either of those numbers.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: I think the unemployment rate going up makes sense with all the people getting fired.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: I showed you some of those numbers yesterday, but we'll get to the Fed in just a second.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: Guys, bear with me, give me a minute, I'll walk you through the Fed.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: This is just out.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: This is more important than the Fed right now.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Average hourly earnings have gone up less than expected.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: That's a positive for the market.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: That is less inflation and participation rate is flat.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: That's sort of okay.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: Neither here nor there.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: The government is still trying to hire its way to this election, which is fairly moronic, and private non-farm payroll is allegedly creating a bucketload of jobs, which is bad for the economy.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: But you know he believes this.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: I certainly don't.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: Here is what Chair Powell said.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: He said yesterday and he did change his tune the first time very significantly on interest rate cuts, which is why this video is entitled Fed Flipps justified, probably for the first time in 18 months, you do keep clicking on it.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: I bet it's in all seriousness.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: He says we're waiting to become more confident.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Inflation is moving towards for 2 percent.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: When we do get to that and we are not far from it this sentence you should print out and frame, because this is what's going to drive Nvidia up another 20 percent It'll be appropriate not financial advice so to dial back the level of restriction.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: But we are not from.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: It is the happiest sentence has come out of Jay Powell's mouth in the last 18 months.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: This is potentially well.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: This is very, very good news, for the market Deserves a great, great big green plus.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: How's the market reacting to it?
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: It's taking it pretty well.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Nvidia is up another 3 percent, pre-market trading at something crazy.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: What is it trading?
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: At $953 pre-market, it's now worth $2.3 trillion and it won't be long before it exceeds Apple as the most valuable company out there.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: Apple is up, meta is up, microsoft, google basically flat.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: Amazon flat.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Tesla rebounding 1.9 percent up.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Fat drugs are down, amd is up, probably in sympathy with Nvidia, and everything else looks pretty okay, except for Costco.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: I don't seem to do all that well on earnings today.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: So not looking too shabby, not looking too shabby.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Put your questions down below.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Also, just wanted to remind you, because so many of you downloaded this yesterday, which is fantastic becoming smarter, better informed investors, which is what this is all about.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Write down these two links philxfriendsorg slash sp500 and philxfriendsorg slash Nasdaq and they will allow you to get your hands on a massive, massive benchmark.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Let me see if I can pull them up.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: They're here.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: They are.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: Here's the S&P benchmark.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: This is the same document also for Nasdaq.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Gives you every S&P 500 stock and you can filter and search by gross profit margin, for example, filter by condition, make greater than, for example, maybe 60%, and you do that, and you now only have 110 companies left, because, yes, the majority of the S&P 500 is a load of rubbish.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: I keep saying it.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: You could do the same thing to other margins, net income margins or return of invested capital, maybe above 10, 12%.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: You can look at PE ratios, long-term earnings growth and so on, and that's gonna make you a heck of a lot smarter than most people out there.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: And you can click on file, make a copy, and now you have your own copy to keep and to cherish until death.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Do us part, so get your pause on.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: The links again are here.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Let me type them into the chat as well, because I think I got to put them in the description.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Sp500 is one, put them into the chat, and the other one is Nasdaq.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: I know how hard it is to type, so now you can copy and paste.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: There we are.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Smash the you know what.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: Put your questions out there while we run through stuff.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: But the big news for me is really this that rate reductions can and will begin this year.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: That is a complete floppy flip from L chairman Powell, and he's also talking about the threat to the US banking system and the CRE problem, which I've been telling you about for the last year and a half.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: It's manageable, which is Head speak for freaking out.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: He's talking with lenders to make sure they're on top of potential losses after the recent troubles.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Troubles is a nice word for the New York Community Bank Corp, but there is no risk to the overall system.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: No, there is no risk to the overall system.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: No, this water is safe.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Drink it.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: Nuclear energy is only clean, absolutely.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Batteries are safe.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: There are no children in the Congo.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: It's all true.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: Right, there we are.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: That's the key stuff here this morning.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Shall we wrap it up right there, or do you want to chat about some stuff?
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Ask about some of your favorite stocks.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Palantir did you watch the AIP Con?
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: They did Look pretty freaking impressive, if you're asking me.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Just happy, happy, happy customers and potential customers who can't believe how glorious the product is.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Alex Karp quoting poetry or something like that we had $27 here with very little resistance.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: We're now at the top of November 21 peaks heading towards $30.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: That's the way I would look at this.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: We could look at some resistance on this if you like.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: You want me to do that, let's do it.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Let's have some fun.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Optionswatchio I just got off a call with our developing team on OptionsWatch, which we have some.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: It's going to be such a cool product it all is but over the next three, six, 12 months, this is going to be an insane product.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: I'm very, very excited about it.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: What do you do?
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Well, look, you just want to look at where are the call options for this week.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: For this week, they're in this green bar here at $29.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: That's your resistance.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: It's going to be relatively hard this week to break through $29.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Not impossible, but $29 is basically your pen.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: $29 resistance for Palantir this week, if we go out into the following weeks moves up to 30, stays at 30,.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: What about the end of the month?
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Still at 30?
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: 30 is a definite.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: That's a big hurdle to crush.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Let's get to 29 this week and then we'll talk about the 30.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Then do you want to have a look at SoFi?
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: I put a video out on that yesterday.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: If you watched that, thank you very much.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: That basically half a percent and a 1 percent up, not moving a lot.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: I did some 2026 call options on that which could potentially make me 500 percent or something.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: That might necessarily, but it can.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: Let me show you what it looks like.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Twitter Little Twitter in my world, not X.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: The rebrand hasn't worked.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Last thing I tweeted, I think no previous to last thing here.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: This is how it works.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: It's a simplified thing and obviously not financial advice and so on.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: But for $320, my total risk if SoFi hits $25, I would make 477 percent.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Now Anthony Noto, the CEO of SoFi, only gets the vast majority of his bonus if he hits $25, ideally $35.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: He's really incentivized in a nice way.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: If my trade gets to $25, I make $15,000 or 477 percent, which is not terrible.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Then I say rather smugly if you don't need your options.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: Come and join me live on Tuesday for the free live trading training at philipsorg Webinar.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: It's an evening session for the first time ever.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: I think it's the first evening session we've ever done.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: Might well be the last, so grab yourself a seat.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: Isn't there a picture in here?
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Somewhere there is.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: We've even got a sunset, because it's at 8 pm.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: It's probably a little bit later than sunset in New York right now, but you get the idea.