Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 140: Wet Harvests, Cold Fronts, and Hurricanes: What the LRC Says Now with Gary Lezak

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140: Wet Harvests, Cold Fronts, and Hurricanes: What the LRC Says Now with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

• 0:00
  Welcome back to another episode of the Cattle USA Daily podcast.
• 0:03
  Today we are welcoming back Gary Lezak with the Weather 2020 team
• 0:07
  to bring you guys your weekly weather report and predictive
• 0:10
  weather of what is going to not be only happening this next
• 0:14
  week, but what is going to be happening this fall.
• 0:17
  And I know a lot of people in the Midwest, specifically our
• 0:20
  farmers are talking about all the rain that we have been
• 0:22
  getting and how extremely wet it is.
• 0:25
  At least here in Cairns, as in Iowa and Nebraska, we've been
• 0:28
  getting absolutely slammed with a lot of rain recently.
• 0:31
  And Gary is bringing the prediction for Harvest and what
• 0:35
  we need to be seen and preparing for for the end of September
• 0:39
  when Harvest is coming around and we are getting ready to get
• 0:41
  in those fields. It unfortunately might not be
• 0:45
  going the way that we want it to as far as the weather goes.
• 0:47
  So Gary tells us all about that, breaks it down for us in this
• 0:51
  podcast episode and tells us everything else that we need to
• 0:54
  know. We had on hurricane season and a
• 0:56
  little bit of everything else in between as we always do.
• 0:58
  So without further ado, let's go ahead and hop into this episode
• 1:01
  with Gary. But before we do, if you guys
• 1:03
  could take a second to like subscribe, rate and review this
• 1:05
  podcast. We really appreciate it here at
• 1:07
  the team. It continues to help us be able
• 1:09
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• 1:13
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• 1:17
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• 1:20
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• 1:24
  information that we are bringing you guys.
• 1:26
  Let's go ahead and hop into this episode with Gary.
• 1:32
  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily Podcast, your go to source for
• 1:35
  the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the
• 1:38
  updates shaping agriculture today.
• 1:41
  I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
• 1:44
  agriculture, here to keep you informed and connected.
• 1:47
  Now let's dive into today's episode.
• 1:53
  Gary, welcome back to the podcast.
• 1:59
  Good morning. That was not a good morning.
• 2:01
  Let me do it again. Good morning, Horvitz.
• 2:05
  Evening. Good evening.
• 2:08
  You needed a redemption there. You you needed to do that.
• 2:11
  Yes, I do. I do.
• 2:13
  Yes. Feels good.
• 2:14
  Just feels good. So how you doing?
• 2:16
  I'm doing great is beautiful here in Kansas.
• 2:20
  It is starting to cool down. We are we're starting to cool
• 2:24
  down a little bit. We got a little bit of a little
• 2:26
  cooler temperatures coming in, which I appreciate because it
• 2:28
  was hotter than Hades last week with a lot of humidity.
• 2:31
  So very much enjoying all of that.
• 2:34
  Life is good, business is good, husband's great.
• 2:38
  I can't complain around here. How are you?
• 2:40
  Doing Gary football season is coming football season.
• 2:43
  Is coming. Oh my gosh, I have a story for
• 2:45
  football season. So this is the first year that I
• 2:50
  have agreed to be in a fantasy league.
• 2:53
  I've never done a fantasy football team ever in my life.
• 2:56
  And I'm trying to decide if I actually want to go in with any
• 3:00
  strategy at all, or if I'm going to treat this more like a March
• 3:02
  Madness bracket where I'm like, I don't know what that team is
• 3:06
  or how that team does, but I think that team is good.
• 3:09
  And I'm just going to randomly pick things and hope for the
• 3:12
  best. Because, you know, I've done a
• 3:14
  lot of research on this fantasy draft that we have here next
• 3:17
  week. And I think I'm actually more
• 3:20
  clueless after all the research than I was before.
• 3:23
  So it's, it's overwhelming. It's a lot, but it's it's going
• 3:26
  to be fun, right? It will be fun, but it's
• 3:30
  frustrating. It may be because you can have
• 3:33
  your favorite player and let's say you're you're your best
• 3:38
  player is for for example, might be if you're a Kansas City
• 3:41
  Chiefs fan, you end up drafting, drafting Bo Nicks of the Denver
• 3:46
  Broncos and you want him to do well, but you don't want the
• 3:49
  Broncos to win. So it's like very difficult.
• 3:51
  So it becomes a problem, but you're happy one way or the
• 3:55
  other. But no, I would I would do this
• 3:58
  strategy with knowing you and you want to do it that way.
• 4:02
  I would write down your top ten players you would like to have
• 4:06
  on your team and then, yeah, the rest of them just go with
• 4:08
  whatever is out there that's available or whatever you think.
• 4:12
  But I would find out which players you want and then try to
• 4:17
  get them. Yes, I think I'm I'm actually
• 4:20
  probably going to go into this way over prepared and probably
• 4:23
  too serious. And I'm probably going to have a
• 4:25
  six page list in front of me of like my exact order of
• 4:30
  quarterbacks, my exact like my exact order of everything.
• 4:33
  And then just like when I. That's fine too.
• 4:36
  That's fine too. I'm probably.
• 4:37
  Going to be a little overdramatic about it.
• 4:39
  Yeah, I wouldn't be too stressed out.
• 4:41
  Just pick your players and then hope they don't get injured.
• 4:45
  Yes, honestly, honestly, it's going to be an interesting year.
• 4:48
  We're doing it with some other like couples that we're really
• 4:50
  close friends with. Like we're doing it with my
• 4:52
  sister and brother-in-law, some like, and then two of our best
• 4:56
  friends like couples. So I'm like, this is going to be
• 4:58
  so, so chill. It'll be great.
• 5:00
  That's awesome. That'll be fun.
• 5:02
  It'll be. That sounds like a fun league,
• 5:03
  you know. Yes, exactly.
• 5:06
  Exactly. Yeah, I did it for many, many,
• 5:08
  many, many years and I finally stopped doing it just because I
• 5:12
  really enjoyed the games better. Without doing that, I I would be
• 5:16
  mad at the end of the day, I would be mad at the end of the
• 5:19
  Chiefs might win, and yet I'd be mad because my team lost.
• 5:22
  Yeah, that makes sense. That makes sense.
• 5:25
  Love it. Amazing.
• 5:26
  Well, yes, football season is coming very quickly and I'm very
• 5:29
  excited. We're also planning our K State
• 5:31
  game days that we're going to go to and that's.
• 5:34
  Not the Ireland. Manhattan, we are not going to
• 5:36
  Ireland. My mom is in Ireland right now
• 5:38
  though. Wow.
• 5:39
  So yes, very jealous of that. And then gosh, I have, I have
• 5:44
  like 6 or seven other people that I know personally that are
• 5:47
  like close to me that are in Ireland or about to leave for
• 5:50
  Ireland and I'm like, send me all the pictures.
• 5:53
  I'm going to live vicarious. That's awesome.
• 5:55
  Yes, yes, it'll be a great game. It'll be a great game.
• 5:58
  That's amazing. Yes.
• 6:00
  Cool. We got to talk about weather,
• 6:02
  don't we? Yes.
• 6:03
  What's what's happening in the weather, Gary?
• 6:04
  Well, this weekend something dramatic is happening is a
• 6:07
  really strong summer cold front that's coming through and
• 6:11
  everyone's going to notice it's going to be much, much cooler on
• 6:15
  Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday for a while.
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  It's still summer. We got to remember it's going to
• 6:20
  heat up again. But this, this is really a nice
• 6:22
  break. There may be some rain along the
• 6:26
  leading edge Friday with that some I'm hearing some areas of
• 6:30
  Kansas, Nebraska would like to be drying out anyway.
• 6:33
  So but this will bring drier air in and then there could be a
• 6:36
  weird storm Tuesday ish with some colder rain spreading
• 6:41
  across the plains. So an interesting weather
• 6:44
  pattern for sure. And remember the weather pattern
• 6:46
  is cycling according to the LRC. It was discovered by me back in
• 6:50
  1980. Seven, 1988.
• 6:52
  We can trace it back to the 1940s and a unique weather
• 6:56
  pattern sets up every fall. When does that begin setting up?
• 7:00
  It's probably starting to evolve already.
• 7:02
  Right now. However, it's really the first
• 7:04
  week of October when when it all gets rolling.
• 7:07
  And once it sets up in October, November, it gets into this
• 7:11
  rhythm. The weather pattern is cycling
• 7:13
  regularly. And so we are able to make these
• 7:16
  predictions for the cool spell coming our way this weekend and
• 7:20
  early next week to everything weather from the hurricane
• 7:25
  that's moving away now from the coast and out to sea predicted.
• 7:29
  We were able to predict that hurricane accurately 6 months in
• 7:33
  advance. And if you can predict a
• 7:34
  hurricane, you can imagine we can predict the weather for
• 7:38
  droughts and floods and how the conditions are going to be for
• 7:42
  Cattle USA. And so it's different than other
• 7:45
  forecasting methods. What happens is we are able to
• 7:48
  get the blueprint of the weather pattern.
• 7:51
  So in other words, by November and December when we narrow in
• 7:56
  on what the cycle is, this year's been close to six weeks
• 7:58
  long, we can make predictions for when those hurricanes are
• 8:02
  going to be. We can make predictions for
• 8:05
  where there will be drought and where the drought will shrink
• 8:09
  and move away and where there may be floods and tornado
• 8:13
  outbreaks and heat waves and cold outbreaks.
• 8:16
  We know when and where we literally have the DNA of the
• 8:20
  atmosphere. We're not perfect, but we're
• 8:22
  able to do it. Other systems that you may think
• 8:26
  about using, and if you do use them, they're often wrong and
• 8:31
  they can't get specific like we do on what's going to happen.
• 8:35
  For example, El Nino, La Nina, it's called the El Nino Southern
• 8:39
  Oscillation Index, other things like that.
• 8:43
  And sometimes people say, hey, this looks like 19931882, so the
• 8:48
  weather's going to be like then. But it isn't.
• 8:51
  It's like this year's pattern this year is the best analog,
• 8:54
  the current year's pattern is the best analog.
• 9:01
  And this gives ranchers and farmers actionable information
• 9:05
  months in advance. So that's what we have for you
• 9:10
  guys. And so you know what is there
• 9:13
  going to be heat stress or cold stress?
• 9:16
  You know, cattle producers out there can plan for extreme
• 9:21
  weather impacts on how might might impact your cattle.
• 9:28
  So just now that we're, we're providing that information, I'm
• 9:32
  learning more about your your operations out there.
• 9:36
  And winter storms can cause feed supply problems.
• 9:41
  My goal this winter, like I'm always honestly, I'll just tell
• 9:45
  you, I've raised the bar high when I was on television just
• 9:50
  predicting Kansas City's weather every day.
• 9:52
  I was the most accurate for many, many years.
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  In fact, that was considered by far the most accurate.
• 9:59
  But when you raise the bar that high when you are wrong, people
• 10:02
  like act like you're wrong all the time.
• 10:04
  But even though we're right 75% of the time, if you're right 75%
• 10:09
  of the time, you're going to be wrong 25% of the time.
• 10:11
  So you have to just understand that.
• 10:13
  And this would dry plan on really sticking my neck out more
• 10:18
  by the time we know what the cycle is and predicting when and
• 10:21
  where you guys are all going to have your winter storms and when
• 10:25
  it might impact your operations. So that's my goal for for things
• 10:30
  that will end in prove you're preparing for feed costs and hay
• 10:36
  roduction and things like that. Yes, I'm so excited to be able
• 10:40
  to work through like October and setting up of the new cycle and
• 10:46
  us just being able to come on and talk about that as it's
• 10:49
  happening live and in the moment and being able to work through
• 10:54
  that as we've been talking for almost the last like seven
• 10:58
  months, Gary of the weather and prediction and everything like
• 11:02
  that. Kind of letting it take a full
• 11:04
  circle moment and be like, OK, we're starting over again from
• 11:07
  the beginning and being able to walk through that of exactly
• 11:11
  what that looks like. And how that is going to impact
• 11:14
  our winter weather patterns, our spring weather patterns,
• 11:16
  everything like that. As we look out to the next
• 11:20
  month, Gary, what else are we kind of seeing in the weather
• 11:24
  for the rest of August going into early September?
• 11:27
  What can we kind of be expecting there?
• 11:29
  Well, you know one thing, the pattern is likely beginning to
• 11:33
  start to change for what's going to happen next year.
• 11:37
  But right now, here we are near the end of August and we're at
• 11:40
  95%, 95% this pattern that we've been in all year long.
• 11:48
  So not really a change yet. By September 3rd, about a month
• 11:52
  from now, we're going to be about 60% the pattern we've been
• 11:59
  in and 40% the new pattern already.
• 12:03
  And by October 5th, 6th or 7th, we're going to flip over that
• 12:06
  tipping point and the new pattern will be cycling and it
• 12:10
  might only still be 51% the new pattern at that point.
• 12:14
  And by November, we're almost predominantly the new pattern.
• 12:18
  So we're going to learn a lot in the next few weeks.
• 12:22
  But one thing that is it's not 100% confident, but I'm rather
• 12:28
  confident in, as we talked about last week, is the potential for
• 12:32
  to be too wet across parts of Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri
• 12:39
  at the end of the month of September.
• 12:41
  And that just coincides with harvest and stuff like that.
• 12:45
  So, so if we start seeing a very wet pattern evolving at the last
• 12:51
  week of September, I'm giving you right now 30 days notice.
• 12:55
  OK, so plan for a possible wet end of September.
• 13:00
  Does that mean you move up, you know, harvest to September 20th
• 13:03
  or you can't yet or you wait till October the 15th?
• 13:07
  You might have to. There may be a very wet window
• 13:10
  in there where in a seven day stretch we get 5 inches of rain
• 13:14
  right when you think you want to get out into the field.
• 13:17
  So keep that in mind. That's one thing to look forward
• 13:21
  to between now and then. There will be dry spells and
• 13:24
  then a few thunderstorms that will be timed pretty good.
• 13:29
  And so that's all, all in the cards, Lauren.
• 13:33
  How about hurricane season? How are we?
• 13:37
  How's all of that going? We talked a little bit about the
• 13:40
  hurricane that you guys predicted 6 months ago that was
• 13:44
  going to come through. I forget the name of the
• 13:46
  hurricane. It didn't hit landfall.
• 13:48
  It's just going right up the coast and going back out to sea
• 13:50
  now. But what else is going on on
• 13:52
  hurricane season? Gary, the Hurricane Erin formed
• 13:55
  Erin. Erin.
• 13:57
  Erin and Erin formed a week ago and it's been tracking towards
• 14:04
  the East Coast and on Thursday it tracked off just east of
• 14:09
  North Carolina and now it's curving out to sea.
• 14:11
  And so it missed the coast. It did have some minor impacts
• 14:15
  on the coast, which is great news.
• 14:17
  It is one that the LRC pegged for it to possibly curve out to
• 14:23
  sea. There was also a possibility to
• 14:26
  make landfall. But I'm not shocked at doing
• 14:29
  what the track it's taking. It actually fits those weather
• 14:32
  seas we talked about rather well.
• 14:34
  So anyway, there's still a lot to learn about each one of
• 14:36
  those. But Aaron's just the fifth one.
• 14:39
  Fernand is the next one. And I think it's Fernand without
• 14:43
  with a silent D, believe it or not.
• 14:46
  And so it's FERNAND. And most people are going to say
• 14:51
  it's Fernand, but it's going to, I think it's pronounced Fernand
• 14:54
  without the D. That's what I was told by this
• 14:56
  meteorologist, Jeremy Nelson. He's she wants that one to be
• 14:59
  like not a big storm because everyone's not going to be able
• 15:02
  to pronounce it right. It's just either AD or AD,
• 15:05
  Fernand or Fernand. It's so it's.
• 15:07
  Just for Nan, so just like pretend the D is not there so
• 15:11
  for Nan. Yeah, it's a it's, Yeah, it's a
• 15:13
  male. So why?
• 15:13
  Is the D there in the first place?
• 15:16
  Well, the. American language, do you say?
• 15:18
  It confuses me or often what do you?
• 15:21
  Say often. Often.
• 15:24
  Often. Or you say you use ATI, don't.
• 15:27
  Yeah, I use AT. So I'm from Los Angeles and we
• 15:30
  say often without the T, why is there AT there?
• 15:34
  But for you it's there is AT there.
• 15:35
  There is AT there for me, so I don't know what to tell you.
• 15:38
  What that was No T, it's often how often do you do things?
• 15:42
  And you go, how often do you do things?
• 15:44
  Yeah, yeah, yeah. Crazy.
• 15:47
  So. The American language is crazy.
• 15:49
  That's my comment. Why have a soft D?
• 15:52
  Just take the D off. I know.
• 15:55
  Whatever, whatever. Anywho.
• 15:56
  Fernand, what? What's up?
• 15:58
  With that, because I think Fernand or just, I don't know
• 16:01
  Fernando, what's wrong with that?
• 16:03
  So but anyway, yeah, the English language, Fernand, Fernand is
• 16:08
  the next one. That's just a 6th 1.
• 16:09
  You know, we predicted 17 to 23 named storms right now.
• 16:13
  By the end of August, I would have expected to have about two
• 16:17
  or three more. So I think I may have.
• 16:21
  We've been the most accurate hurricane forecaster in the
• 16:24
  world, and I'm not going to say anything.
• 16:26
  It's not even halftime. Yes, it's not even.
• 16:28
  Halftime. If I'm down 17 to 3 and it's and
• 16:32
  I've got the ball with two minutes to go, I can make it
• 16:34
  1710 and still win this game. Exactly.
• 16:38
  Exactly. Not a concern.
• 16:39
  We'll see. We'll see how it goes.
• 16:41
  But but yeah, hurricane season is is in progress and we missed
• 16:47
  the big one, Emily. Now, I still think there's going
• 16:51
  to be one or two that make landfall in the United States.
• 16:54
  So September could be crazy. Very good to know.
• 16:57
  Any other things in the weather that we need to hit on today,
• 17:00
  Gary? Highs.
• 17:01
  Lows. Buffaloes.
• 17:03
  I I can go up about 30 minutes and go see some buffaloes.
• 17:07
  Have you never heard that? Give me a.
• 17:08
  High low, low lows. I don't know.
• 17:10
  I've never heard. It you never heard that?
• 17:12
  No. What is what?
• 17:13
  Is that OK? So it's like a, it's like give
• 17:17
  me a high, low or a Buffalo. A Buffalo is like a kind of like
• 17:21
  a neutral. Like it's, it's not necessarily
• 17:24
  a high, it's not necessarily a low.
• 17:26
  It's just kind of like there. So it's like give me a high, low
• 17:30
  or a Buffalo and it's like give me a neutral.
• 17:33
  So we can learn a lot from the Buffaloes.
• 17:37
  Apparently apparently. Because they're not high,
• 17:40
  they're not low, they're just steady, happy creatures roaming
• 17:46
  the earth. I think it's more for the fact
• 17:50
  that it's like it rhymes like high low Buffalo.
• 17:53
  Sounds cool. Sounds cool when you say it.
• 17:55
  High, low and Lauren is in the know.
• 17:59
  There you go. A.
• 18:01
  So, but no, nothing else for today.
• 18:03
  I mean I perfect. I think that, you know, we're
• 18:07
  we're in the summer doldrums, a cold front sweeping in.
• 18:10
  It's how low will it go? It might be in the east in
• 18:13
  northern Kansas. That would be a little early,
• 18:16
  but it can happen. So we might be in the 40s by
• 18:19
  Monday morning. And so, and then we'll see if
• 18:22
  that storm comes out of the Rockies, but I'll be in Kansas
• 18:25
  City. It's called the Head for the
• 18:27
  Cure fundraiser. And if you're going to be there,
• 18:30
  you can sign up right now. It's on Sunday in Corporate
• 18:33
  woods in Overland Park. It's one of the most fun,
• 18:37
  thrilling events. About 5000 to 10,000 people are
• 18:41
  there and it's interesting when everyone walks or runs.
• 18:44
  And so you have almost all 5000 people lining up as a lot of
• 18:47
  people. The fundraiser starts and if
• 18:50
  you're like the 5000 personal line, you don't really even move
• 18:54
  for 10 minutes or 15 minutes. It's really fascinating.
• 18:57
  But then you start walking through.
• 18:59
  But it's really a great van event, a fundraiser to raise
• 19:03
  funds to defeat brain cancer, while the 2020 is one of the
• 19:08
  sponsors. And I provide them the beautiful
• 19:11
  cast that I came up with. And here is your beautiful cast.
• 19:16
  It's a beautiful day whether it rains or not, because we're
• 19:19
  raising money for this cause. Yeah, but I'm going to be out
• 19:22
  there and I hope to see everyone there.
• 19:25
  But otherwise, that's it. Everything else is going great.
• 19:29
  Amazing, amazing. Gary.
• 19:31
  Well, I know Kansas City will love to have you back for the
• 19:34
  weekend that they can get you and get you out of Colorado for
• 19:37
  a couple days and get you into Kansas City again.
• 19:40
  So and as always, thank you so much for coming on and sharing
• 19:44
  your wealth of knowledge with us and our audience and everything
• 19:48
  else that comes along with it, whether it be some punny things
• 19:53
  like your shirt that you're wearing today, take weather
• 19:57
  seriously. Seriously.
• 19:59
  Seriously. Seriously.
• 20:02
  Yeah, like a serious cloud. Because.
• 20:04
  It's a serious cloud. Amazing.
• 20:06
  I love it. I love it, Gary.
• 20:08
  Well, thank you as always for your time.
• 20:10
  To all of our listeners out there.
• 20:12
  If you like what Gary and I are talking about and want to check
• 20:15
  out more about Weather 2020, we have a link down in the show
• 20:18
  notes for you guys where you can check out that dashboard where
• 20:21
  we have a exclusive partnership with Weather 2020 to offer you
• 20:24
  guys a little bit of a discount for that as well.
• 20:26
  I also have the Glow, a predictor app linked down below,
• 20:29
  which is another one of Gary's products.
• 20:31
  It's an app in the App Store. It only costs like 499 a month
• 20:34
  to be able to have all of the things and it's quite wonderful,
• 20:38
  so make sure you go check that out.
• 20:39
  All of Gary's social medias are down below.
• 20:41
  If you just can't get enough of them and you want him filling
• 20:44
  all of your social media screens, go check those out as
• 20:47
  well. And as always, we'll see you all
• 20:49
  tomorrow on another episode. Have a good one y'all.