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The 2% Who Drive 91% of the Crime — Time to Get Tough on Repeat Offenders · Right Now Hot Takes

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  Imagine this, a city where the same handful of
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  people keep getting arrested, released, and arrested
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  again, while ordinary families lock their doors
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  tighter, change their routes home, and wonder
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  why the system keeps putting the same predators
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  back on the street. Welcome to Right Now Hot
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  Takes. I'm Jim Rand, your host. If you appreciate
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  thoughtful conversations like this, Welcome to
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  the podcast. Leave a five star review. It helps
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  more people discover the show and it helps us
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  keep these conversations going. Thank you for
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  listening. I love this country. I love the American
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  idea that people are free to build, to work,
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  to raise families and to live without constant
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  fear of the next career criminal who should still
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  be locked up. President Trump just put a number
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  on something a lot of people have believed for
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  years. Roughly 2 % of the people are responsible
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  for about 91 % of the crime. Think about that.
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  Not 20%, not half, 2%. A tiny group of chronic,
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  repeat offenders drives the overwhelming majority
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  of the violence, the theft, the chaos that makes
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  neighborhoods unlivable, and young people anxious
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  about their future. This isn't a new discovery.
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  It's one of the most consistent findings in criminology.
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  The famous Philadelphia birth cohort studies
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  followed thousands of boys. Just six percent
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  accounted for more than half of all offenses.
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  Those same chronic offenders drove most of the
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  serious violence, the murders, the rapes, the
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  robberies. A Swedish study of millions of people
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  found that 1 % of the population accounted for
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  63 % of all violent crime convictions. Meta -analyses
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  keep arriving at the same conclusion. The pattern
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  holds across cities, across countries, across
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  decades. Crime isn't randomly sprinkled across
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  the population. It's heavily concentrated. Most
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  Americans never commit a serious crime. Most
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  people who are arrested once don't keep offending,
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  but a hardcore does. They stack arrests the way
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  other people stack job applications. And every
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  time the system treats the latest offense as
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  if it were the first, the rest of us pay the
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  price. Look at the real world numbers. In New
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  York City, a few hundred people have been responsible
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  for thousands of shoplifting arrests. A few dozen
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  habitual offenders have accumulated thousands
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  of subway arrests between them, and many were
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  still on the street. While across the country,
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  a tiny fraction of known offenders drive most
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  shootings. When police and prosecutors focus
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  on those names, violence drops. When they stop,
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  it comes back. The soft approach has been tried.
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  cashless bail, early release programs, prosecutors
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  who treat long criminal histories as less important
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  than the newest charge. The theory was compassion.
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  The results have been measurable and, in too
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  many places, ugly. Victims got less protection.
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  Career criminals got more chances. The neighborhoods
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  that could least afford the chaos paid the highest
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  price. Young Americans feel this every day. You
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  change your route after dark. You think twice
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  about the apartment near the bus stop. You see
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  the same faces, the same rap sheets, the same
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  words, released pending trial. That isn't abstract
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  policy. That's the difference between feeling
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  safe enough to walk home, take a night class,
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  or start a business. The American system works
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  best when it protects the productive majority
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  and removes the small group that repeatedly preys
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  on them. Incentives matter. If the consequence
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  for the tenth felony feels like the consequence
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  for the first, why would the offender stop? If
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  the system starts treating the record as the
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  record, the math changes. Fewer victims, safer
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  streets, more freedom for everyone else. This
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  isn't about being cruel. It's about being clear.
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  Most people deserve second chances. A first -time,
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  nonviolent offender is not the same as someone
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  with 14 prior arrests. Treating them the same
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  isn't compassion. It's abandoning the next victim.
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  Focused enforcement works. When cities concentrate
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  on the chronic few, serious crime falls. Washington,
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  D .C. recently showed what can happen when the
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  worst repeat offenders are removed. Crime dropped
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  sharply. People noticed. That's results. So what
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  does practical toughness look like? Judges, use
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  the tools you already have. Stop treating long
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  criminal histories as irrelevant. Hire bail for
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  repeat violent offenders. Longer sentences when
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  the law allows. Stop the revolving door. District
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  attorneys, charge the chronic offenders aggressively.
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  Use the data. The names are known. The patterns
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  are clear. Elected officials support law enforcement,
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  support focused deterrence, and policies that
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  repeatedly release high -risk offenders. If public
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  safety matters, back the people responsible for
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  protecting it. We keep hearing that we can't
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  incarcerate our way out of crime. We don't need
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  to lock up half the population. We need to stop
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  releasing the small percentage responsible for
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  most of the harm. 2 % is manageable. 91 % of
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  the crime is not. For young listeners especially,
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  don't accept the idea that public safety is somehow
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  outdated. Order is the foundation that allows
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  free people to build a future. When the system
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  protects predators instead of productive citizens,
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  the American promise shrinks. When it focuses
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  on the chronic few, the rest of us get our neighborhoods
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  and our confidence back. The evidence has been
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  clear for decades. A tiny group drives most of
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  the damage. Get them off the street. Keep them
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  off the street long enough for everyone else
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  to live without looking over their shoulder.
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  That isn't extremism. That's basic responsibility.
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  This has been Right Now Hot Takes. I'm Jim Rand.
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