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اقتصاد ۱۴۰۴؛ اقتصاد زیر آتش · اکو ایران | روند

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Recently, the market data of the year 1404 was published
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: and put the last piece of the economic puzzle of
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: the past year on the table. In this part of
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: the Ravand program, we want to see what important economic
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: figures have made their way in the past year, where
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: they have reached and what vision they have set for
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: this year's economy. Stay with us in this part of
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: the Ravand program. The economy of the past has different aspects,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: but three of the most important ones are economic growth, poverty,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: and unemployment. These three aspects can give us a general
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: picture of the state of the country's economy, so that
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: we can understand that compared to the previous year, we
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: have better conditions, our situation is worse, or we are
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: in the same place as before. In the first big economy,
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: which is usually referred to as the economic growth According
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: to the AMA report, the country's economic growth reached 12%
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: in 1404 This means that in the past years and
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: after the corona, this figure was between 3 to 5%
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: in the 90s As we know, Iran's economy is very
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: much dependent on oil profits. Production and economic growth are
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: also a special rule. Therefore, to make the country's economic
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: growth more accurate, they take two measures. Once with oil
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: profit calculation and once without it. The number we just
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: talked about was with oil profit calculation. If we put
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: the oil price aside from the economic rise, we see
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: that the country's economic cake in the year 1404 is
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: not only not greater than 1403, but also three-tenths of
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: a percent smaller. This is also due to the many
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: economic shocks that have occurred in the past year. The
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: most important of them is the two-war war, which also
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: led to a severe sea siege after the second war.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Of course, we must also say that according to the
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Central Bank's statement, the country's economic growth has been denied
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: in both cases. The reason for the difference in the
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: economic growth figures of these two markets is that their
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: trading methods are different from each other, but both are
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: official market markets and can be attributed to both. Two
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: very important factors in the economic growth are oil and
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: gas and fixed capital formation. As we said, the first
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: is so important and important that it can pay attention
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: to the real volume of the economy. The capital formation
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: also shows how much the economy has invested in the
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: future production of goods and is recognized as the engine
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: of economic growth. According to the official financial report of
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Amar and Banke Merkezi, the increase in the value of
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: oil and gas was positive, but in comparison with the
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: past years, it has been less noticeable. The increase in
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: the real financial structure was also negative according to the
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: financial report of Amar and Banke Merkezi, as the percentage
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: of Amar and Banke Merkezi in the year 1404 to
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: 1403 decreased by about 12%. This is one of the
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: most worrisome events for the economy because the continued decline
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: of this figure can be a sign of recession for
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: the economy. According to Rayegh's definition, if the economic growth
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: is negative for two consecutive seasons, we can say that
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: we have entered a recession. One of the factors that
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: can directly affect the economic growth and production capacity is unemployment.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: The growth of participation and unemployment in the country shows
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: that these two factors had a negative growth in the
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: year 1404. The decline of these two factors at the
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: same time is not a good thing because it shows
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: that the work force has been removed from the active
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: community and has no hope of finding work. Lack of
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: employment and income can be a dangerous time that is
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: accompanied by poverty and a high cost of living The
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: event that happened in the past year for many Iranian
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: families The rise of the high and the constant changes
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: due to war and protests The annual inflation reached more
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: than 50% at the end of 2014, which has not
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: been repeated in the country's economy so far. Such inflation
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: at the same time, with the bad conditions of the
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: high economy, can make the family table much smaller than before.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: If we want to find the source of inflation pressure
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: in the past year, we must consider this inflation as
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: a point and determine the main groups. The return of
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: the Khourakis in the year 1404 reached about 113%. That is,
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: the Iranian families spent more than two times more than
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: the Khourakis in the year 1403 compared to the Khourakis
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: in the previous year. While the rate of unemployment and
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: services was 50%. This means that the rate of unemployment
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: that Iranian families felt in the past year was more
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: in the direction of food supplies. This pressure was also
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: more severe for low-income families because the rate of unemployment
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: due to the spending of these families is higher than
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: that of other income groups. One of the reasons why
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: an item or a consumer item can be expensive is
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: that it is in the direction of the price. In
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: other words, if the production costs of a manufacturer increase,
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: for example, the cost of raw materials, goods, or labor increases,
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: it can affect the final price of the product. This
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: issue is also related to the manufacturer's price. This slide
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: shows that the manufacturer's price has reached 65% in the
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: winter of 1404. i.e. the producers in one year had
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: an increase of 65% of the costs. This change can
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: be more in different parts of the country and this
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: figure is for the entire country. Another factor that can
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: be used to determine the situation of production in the
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: economy of a country is the factor of industrial production.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: This factor is calculated by using information that is available
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: from large stock companies. According to the latest data, this
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: figure in Spain has reached a deficit of 16.8%, which
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: has directly affected the country's war situation. This issue can
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: be seen in the 12-day war and the month of June,
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: which shows how much the country's war situation has caused
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: the country's economy to be out of production line. The
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: year of 1404 was not forgotten for all of us,
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: but not with pleasant coincidences. The internet's interruption, the two
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: wars and the loss of a large number of compatriots,
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: the economic protests, the increase of inflation, the reduction of
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: companies and the reduction of production were only a part
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: of this year's events. The problems that caused the country's
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: economy to be damaged and the important eye-catcher for the
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: upcoming year. This lack of confidence not only threatens the economy,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: but also threatens the society's trust and the country's development.