Latest / Best of Business / Nick Brunsdon: Infometrics Principal Economist on unemployment reaching 5.3 percent in the September quarter

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Nick Brunsdon: Infometrics Principal Economist on unemployment reaching 5.3 percent in the September quarter · Best of Business

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  Speaker 2: Unemployment, let's talk about that it has hit five point
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  Speaker 2: three percent. This was of course expected. It is now
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  Speaker 2: at its highest level since twenty sixteen. Nick Brunsdon is
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  Speaker 2: Infametric's principle economist and with us now, hey Nick, hey, Heather,
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  Speaker 2: we hit the peak.
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  Speaker 3: We think we're hit the peak. Yeah.
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  Speaker 4: So it did creep up this quarter, but that was
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  Speaker 4: to be expected. And we've got a few positive signs,
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  Speaker 4: a few very small green shoots that might give us
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  Speaker 4: confidence that we have at the peak.
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  Speaker 2: There is a feeling it might go up, just tick up,
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  Speaker 2: just marginally in this quarter still to five point four.
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  Speaker 2: Do you agree or disagree?
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  Speaker 4: I think it's possible, but I think we've got a
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  Speaker 4: few We've had a number of good signs. We've had
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  Speaker 4: two or three months of job growth, We've had two
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  Speaker 4: or three months of job ad growth.
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  Speaker 3: So there's signs out there that things are getting better.
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  Speaker 4: And when we lock into the numbers today, we say
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  Speaker 4: that employers are kind of holding on to staff, they're
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  Speaker 4: keeping their pait hours up even if the work's not
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  Speaker 4: quite there, and so that says that ultimately employers see
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  Speaker 4: see growth around the corner.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, there is also some talk of the fact that
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  Speaker 2: it will sit at this kind of higher, this elevated
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  Speaker 2: level for a but even possibly over five percent for
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  Speaker 2: a while, like as in for another year.
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  Speaker 3: Do you agree, Yeah, I think something like that.
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  Speaker 4: Expected our forecasters for it to four point six by
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  Speaker 4: the end of next year. And you know, that's not
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  Speaker 4: a low unemployment rate by any means. It's still going
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  Speaker 4: to be pretty uncomfortable.
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  Speaker 2: And then when does it finally return to what we
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  Speaker 2: would consider kind of normal levels.
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  Speaker 3: That could be two or three more years.
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  Speaker 4: I think the thing is that we are starting to
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  Speaker 4: recover or on the cusp of the recovery, but it's
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  Speaker 4: not going to be a quick one. And so for
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  Speaker 4: those that are in a job, it's quite a positive picture,
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  Speaker 4: and for those that are not in a job, it's a.
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  Speaker 3: Pretty ugly picture that it's going to take a while.
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  Speaker 2: What are you reading into that underutilization rate.
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  Speaker 3: I think that's what we'd expect.
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  Speaker 4: It is a tough labor market, and people realize that
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  Speaker 4: they can't you know, they're not going to get the
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  Speaker 4: hours that they want, and it's going to be really
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  Speaker 4: hard to get the job that they want, and so
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  Speaker 4: they are, they are struggling to get what they need
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  Speaker 4: out of the labor market.
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  Speaker 2: Ultimately, yeah, hey listen, thank you very much and I
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  Speaker 2: appreciate it. Nick Brunsdon, Infametrix Principle Economist.
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