Latest / Toadstool Sports / Saturday BEST BETS | Covering the Bases | MLB & NCAA Football | 9/5/26

Transcript

Saturday BEST BETS | Covering the Bases | MLB & NCAA Football | 9/5/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: You look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: in your hand. Now you stare at the chips like
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: they made you this man. But don't you go quiet,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: don't you fade from the floor. Your name still means
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: something to somebody for sure.
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: Put the glass.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: Look at me now Hold on, hold on Not tonight,
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: out That fella fights hard But he don't get the.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: Crown Hold on.
• 1:16
  Speaker 4: Hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Stay with me.
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: Now. What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports. Saturday,
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: September 5th. I did the college football show for week
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: one last night. I got two plays. You can go
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: watch that. While there's still time, I suppose, uh, Week
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: one is always a little bit questionable, though. It's a
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: little bit hard to gauge. I'm going to give out
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: three baseball plays on this show. Hopefully we get some
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: winners here. I still need to put them into the system, though, actually.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: Let me see if I can do that quickly here.
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: If I remember what prices I got these at, my apologies.
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: And I will reiterate my college football plays at the
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: end of the show as well. Yes, okay, we have that.
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: while I get these in. I forget what numbers I
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: got these at. Oh, I got that one at that.
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: All right, yeah, whatever.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: And then, yeah.
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm going to have two Major League Baseball totals,
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: one side as well.
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: Okay, I think that's good. Yesterday, one and two on
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: the show. I'm not happy about that. The Detroit Tigers
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: in game one, I mean, they... They were winning the
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: game 6-1 in the fourth inning or whatever, and then
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: they gave all the runs up, and then it was tied,
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: and then there was no scoring from the fourth inning
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: onward until Cleveland wound up winning the game, I think
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: probably on a walk-off. Not happy about that. When it
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: was 6-1, it's like, yeah, this is over. Cleveland, their
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: offense doesn't do enough to come back from a deficit
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: like that. It's ridiculous. They had a grand slam in
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: the fourth inning that tied the game. Yeah, really, really
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: pisses me off. We won with Atlanta, so Garrett is
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: happy about that. That was a winner. It was a
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: bit close for a while, and then Atlanta pushed the
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: lead a bit later in the game. They won 5-2.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: College football was a bust. Stanford, nope, didn't go well.
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to tell you. I thought it
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: was the right handicap. They were horrible in the game.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: There was nothing that went well in that game. They
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: got destroyed. It is what it is. It was a
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: bad call by me. I don't know what else to
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: say about that. Let's do this. Baseball. We have a
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: couple of earlier games here. I guess they're late afternoon games,
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: I guess, if you want to call it that. Cubs
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: at Miami is the first game. Miami, well, the Cubs
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: won yesterday, 6-1, I should say. Both teams kind of
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: have motivation here because they're both fighting for playoff positioning,
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: although the Cubs are pretty much secure in a playoff spot.
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: So is Miami going to be able to bounce back here?
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know. The Cubs only used one relief pitcher yesterday,
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: and it was Savalle, who's a long relief guy. So
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: their bullpen's looking pretty good. Miami used three. And remember,
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: we're in bullpen call-up season as well. So this is
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: September call-up, so there are extra bullpen arms all over
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: the place. Miami's number nine in bullpen. Their ERA is
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: above four, though. Cubs are number 13, but their ERA
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: is better. I give the Cubs the edge in the
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: bullpen here slightly. Cubs number one offense. This is by OPS,
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: and I arrange the bullpens by whip. Miami is number
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: 12 in offense, tied with Houston and the White Sox.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: I think the Cubs are definitely the better offense here
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: as well. This pitching matchup is definitely not elite. Javier
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: Asad is pitching for the Cubs. It looks like he
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: was in the minors, and then I guess they called
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: him back up because it's September call-ups, but he was
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: pitching well. reasonably well, so I'm kind of surprised they
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: actually sent him to the minors. 3.46 ERA, 1.1 whip,
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: not bad on the season. He has not been that
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: good on the road, though. 4.66 road ERA. Wasn't going
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: deep into most of his outings, but the Cubs won
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: the last six times he pitched. So he's doing something right.
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: He's not allowing many runs here, at the very least.
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: He is not a huge strikeout guy, though, but he
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: will be getting the nod here. He does have a
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: low hit rate on the season, a pretty low walk rate,
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: and his strikeout rate is very low, though. so that's
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: not great. 2.6 strikeout walk ratio is better than you
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: would think with a low strikeout rate like that. 5.9
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: strikeouts per nine. Yeah, that's not great, but he pitches
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: to contact. It's the way that it is, man. The
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: advanced analytics guys will not like it. His numbers are
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: probably unsustainable here, but he's not that bad against Miami.
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: This is at Miami, right? Am I getting this right? Yeah,
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: it is. So this is a more pitcher-friendly park here.
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: Only Lopez's Stowers have ever faced Assad before. They're 0-5
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: combined with a strikeout and a walk. So I think
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: Assad might actually draw a decent matchup here, and the
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: unfamiliarity might help him out a little bit. Ryan Gusto
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: is pitching for Miami. He's not very good either, but
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: he has been pitching reasonably well recently. 3.86 ERA, 1.33
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: whip is not that good, but he's pretty good at home. 3.31
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: home ERA. He doesn't go deep into his starts either,
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: but Miami's won a lot of his recent starts or
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: recent outings, I suppose. His command numbers have actually been
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: good recently. He has a sub-2 ERA over the last month. So,
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: like I said, he is doing something right here. We
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: did play on him against the Red Sox. We got
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: a win in that one, which was one of his
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: better appearances recently. His hit rate is too high. Doesn't
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: really walk that many guys. His strikeout rate is okay. Yeah,
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's a mediocre pitcher. Strikeout walk ratio is 2.9,
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: which is not horrible. 7.6 strikeout per nine is not
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: amazing by any means, but whatever. The Cubs have not
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: been able to do a whole lot against him. It's
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: a small sample, 13 at-bats. One extra base hit in here,
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: which is a home run from Suzuki. 3-1 strikeout walk ratio,
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: 231 average, 747 OPS. I think this game might be
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: an under. The money is indicating on the over, but
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: it's a public over. 83% of tickets, 91% of the
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: cash on it. Totals at 8, 8.5. I'm going to
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: lean under in this one. I think you're actually pitching
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: that can get the job done throughout this game, really.
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: I don't really want to do it because I don't
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: really trust these pitchers necessarily, but I would lean a
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: little bit that way. 85% of tickets, 94% of the
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: cash on the Cubs, minus 130-something. I don't think I'd
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: really want to do that. I don't know if Assad
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: really deserves to be that much of a favorite on
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: the road like that. The Cubs are going to be
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: a public side as well. It looks like the money
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: is backing them. But, yeah, I mean, my opinion on
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: that game would be the under. Charles, what's up? Thanks
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: for hanging out. Garrett, correct. Yeah, well, I'm pissed. I
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: don't want to go 1-2 on a particular day. Like,
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: that Tigers game should have been a win. It should
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: have been a 2-1 day. I'm fucking pissed. I hate
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: this shit. I fucking hate it. San Francisco at New York,
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: this game I thought was going to be an under yesterday,
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: and yeah, that didn't happen. The Mets did win, which
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: I also thought was correct. They won 10-6, though, which
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: is insane. A game between these two offenses, 16 runs, really? Whatever, man.
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: Neither team has anything to really play for here, but
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: I think the Mets are playing with a little bit
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: more motivation, really. It seems like they're trying to win.
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: The Mets used three relief pitchers yesterday. San Francisco didn't
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: use any. The Mets are the better bullpen here anyway, though.
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: They're number eight, San Francisco 24, so I'll still give
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: the bullpen edge there to the Mets. San Francisco's number
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: 18 in offense. The Mets are 26, so I guess
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: San Francisco's the better offense, but both of these offenses
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: kind of suck. Anthony Molina is going to be getting
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: the start for San Francisco. He's interesting. He's young. He's
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: got a 3.77 ERA, 1.05 WIPA. Very small sample size
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: for him so far. 4.5 road ERA isn't very good.
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: He's actually pitched since 2024. He's been in Major League Baseball. Really,
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: his numbers are not impressive. I will say that. He
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: was mostly a relief pitcher with Colorado, though. But the
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: question is, can you just throw his Colorado numbers out?
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: Because Colorado just ruins every pitcher. You know what I mean?
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: Pitching in Coors Field is terrible. It seems like their
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: pitching coaching is probably bad, too. So I don't know
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: how we weigh this guy. I don't exactly know what
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: to think about him. He did pitch fairly well last
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: time out against Atlanta. He's been good since being acquired
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: by San Francisco here, so Garrett probably doesn't want to
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: hear that because he was on Atlanta, and he just
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: did well against Atlanta, his former team. Pitched well against
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati for the most part before that, although they didn't
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: really strike anybody out. But yeah, I mean, he's put
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: up some good numbers so far with the Giants. Can
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: he do well against the Mets? He could, although they
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: actually have good numbers off him. They've seen him before
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: because he was on Atlanta, I guess. 14 at-bats,. 357 average.
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: 757 OPS, so these matchup stats don't look that good.
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: 3-1 strikeout walk ratio. No extra base hits, though. I
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: don't know, man. I don't know if Molina's going to
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: actually do bad here or not. Zach Thornton, I think,
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: is more trustworthy, though, and he's pitching for the Mets.
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: He's had a good season. 2.93 ERA, 1.16 whip. He's
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: a young guy, too. This is his first season in
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: the majors. He's done a good job. He's got basically
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: the same numbers home and away, although home his opponent
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: batting average is a little bit higher. But he's been good.
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: He's allowed three or fewer runs in every start since
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: his first start of the season. He's got a reasonable
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: hit rate here. He doesn't really walk anybody. Doesn't have
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: a high strikeout rate, so the advanced analytics guys will
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: be like, no, he sucks. We don't like him. But
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: he's got a 3.2 strikeout walk ratio. That's not bad.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: Low walk rate, man. 6.6 strikeout per nine isn't good,
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: but he doesn't put guys on base. Giants have never
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: seen him before. Probably you've got to lean to the
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: Mets here, but the problem is You've got to lay
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: minus 180-something with the Mets. I mean, this is San
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: Francisco not getting respect at all in the market here. Like,
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: how can the Mets be that heavy of a favorite?
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: And to me, it seems like the public would not
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: want to play the Mets at a price like that,
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: but they're 85% of the tickets on the Mets, 62%
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them. So the money's actually backing
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: the Giants here. I don't know, man. I'd lean to
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: the Mets, but at this price, I think you can't
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: do it. Although you could, I guess, make like a
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: minus one run line on it. I think they should win,
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: but who knows, man. Maybe this game is an under.
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: The total's at 86% of tickets, 87% of the cash
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: on the over. It's a public over. Both pitchers seem
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: to be pitching well right now. Maybe you ignore Molina's
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: matchup stats a little bit here. I don't know. I'd
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: be more inclined to lean towards an under than an
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: over in that one. Let's put it that way. That
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: game's really hard to figure out. Yeah, Sale is good.
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: We know this. Correct, yeah. And they did not win
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: in the first five either because all those runs came
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: in the fourth inning. The first five was a push, though.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: But still, as an underdog like that, they were clearly
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: the right side. I'm not happy about that at all.
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: A grand slam ruined the game pretty much. If you
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: get that guy out instead of allowing a grand slam,
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: Detroit wins the game. One swing of the bat completely
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: changed the game. All right, Atlanta and Philadelphia. Philadelphia lost yesterday.
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: We got that win on the show. It was a
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: return home spot, so I told you that was a
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: bad spot for Philadelphia, but a lot of times when
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: that happens, teams will bounce back and they do better.
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: in the next game, and Philadelphia does have the better
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: starting pitcher on the mound in today's game, although he's
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: been struggling recently. Philly probably should be a little bit
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: more motivated here because they're five games back now. They're
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: still fighting for a wild card spot, too. They're five
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: games back in the division, I should say. Philly does
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: not have a better bullpen, so that's not going to
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: be great for them. Atlanta definitely has the better bullpen.
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: They used two relief pitchers yesterday. Philadelphia used three. Atlanta,
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: number three in bullpen. I still think Milwaukee is a
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: little bit better, but yeah, they're pretty close here. Philadelphia,
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: not a very good bullpen, wherever the hell they are.
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: They're number 18 right now. Their ERA is almost a
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: run higher than Atlanta's. Atlanta is number 11 in hitting,
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: and Philadelphia is number 19, although Philadelphia is better at home.
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's going with Martin Perez here. I mean, he's having
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: a good season for the most part. 3.05 ERA, 1.21
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: whip does indicate his ERA should be higher than that.
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: And he's not that good on the road. 4.42 road ERA,
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: excuse me. He's still pitching all right. I mean, most
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: of these recent starts have been pretty good. Doesn't allow
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: that many hits, but he doesn't strike out a ton
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: of guys. He is walking too many guys, so the
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio is definitely concerning and indicates that his
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: ERA should be higher than what it has been, although
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: he hasn't allowed that many runs here. He does have
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: a low hit rate on the season. His walk rate
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: is too high. His strikeout rate is low, although he's
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: never really been a strikeout pitcher. He's got a 1.8
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. That is bad. That is definitely bad.
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: So the advanced analytics guys are just like, they're going
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: to be fading this guy in a lot of games here.
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: He's got a 6.8 strikeout per nine, which is pretty
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: like himself, I would say. Perez against Philly, not very good.
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: 125 at-bats, 296 average, 772 OPS. 22-10 strikeout walk ratio.
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: So he's in the bad home road split and a
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: bad matchup here. Don't want to back Perez in this one.
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: Zach Wheeler is pitching for Philadelphia. He's the better pitcher,
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: but he's kind of old, and he seems like he's
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: falling apart here towards the end of the season. He's
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: definitely been a lot worse over the last month after
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: he was really, really good for most of the season.
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: He's got a 3.31 ERA, 1.09 whip. He is slightly
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: better at home, 3.23 home ERA. Was good in his
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: last start for the most part against Anaheim, though they're
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: a bad offense. His strikeout walk ratio and his ERA
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: over the past month have been awful, though. ERA over 6,
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: 31-18 strikeout walk ratio, 3-plus walks in his last three outings.
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: That's not good, even though two of those outings wound
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: up being all right. Yeah, he's definitely falling off, man.
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: He's just not in very good form right now, unless
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: maybe he's coming back a little bit. With that last
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: start against Anaheim, it's hard to say because they're a
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: bad offense, so I don't know. He's got a low
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: hit rate on the season, doesn't really walk that many guys,
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: does have a high strikeout rate. That's over the course
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: of the season, though. 3.8 strikeout walk ratio is actually
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: one of the lowest that he's had in quite a while,
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: even though it's still not a bad number. 10.6 strikeout
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: per nine is also pretty good still. Wheeler is generally
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: good against the Braves in a huge sample, 335 at-bats.
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: 104-19 strike-out walk ratio... 227 average... 679 OPS allowed... I
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: think I gotta probably lean towards... Philly here... But the
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: money's coming in on Atlanta... I don't really get it...
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: Like Philly has the better pitcher here... It's just a
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: matter of... Is Wheeler... Like is he just gonna be
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: out of form... For the rest of the season? I
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: have no idea... Like he's 36... Yeah he's old... But
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: he's not like... You wouldn't think it would be like...
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: The end of his career all of a sudden... You
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: know what I mean... Philly is favored at minus 150-something,
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: minus 160. And it really surprised me. Why would the
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: public be on Philly at a price like that? Don't
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: you think they would take Atlanta as an underdog, given
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: that they have the better record and they're a huge
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: underdog price here? So I don't really buy these percentages.
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: But now we see 77% of tickets on Philly, 54%
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: of the cash. Money looks like it's on Atlanta. I
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: would not do that. I would lean to Philly here.
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: You can make a minus one run line on this
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: or something. I slightly lean over in this game as
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: well because Wheeler is just not pitching well, and Perez,
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, you saw his matchup numbers, the home road splits, whatever.
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: He's definitely a regression candidate, so I would lean over,
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: and the money doesn't seem to like that either. 64%
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: of tickets on the over, 52% of the cash on
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: the over. That's what I think about this game, though.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: The total's at eight. The price is a bit high
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: on Philly, but again, to me, it looks like a
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: misleading price. Like, I don't understand why the public would
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: actually play Philly here unless they really, like, do they
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: really just see Wheeler and be like, yeah, let's play him?
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: Is that really what it is? I don't know. I
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: wouldn't think so, but whatever. I mean, I usually have
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: a good gauge of where the public is. No, I
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: just told Perez has a bad strikeout walk ratio, dude.
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: So no, like you're looking at surface numbers. He's not
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: actually good. Whatever. I'm telling you, like there's going to
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: be major regression for Perez. He's not that good. Mr. Pinsey,
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: what's up, man? And in fact, the Braves are fucked
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: in the playoffs because they're starting pitching rotation is probably
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: going to be the worst out of all the playoff teams.
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: Like Which starting rotation is not better than the Braves? Like,
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: let's think about it, really. Unless Wheeler is really just
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: sucking ass for the rest of the season. Philly's got
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: a better starting rotation. Even if he is, Philly's got
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: a better starting rotation anyway because Nola's pitching better now.
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's is definitely better. The Dodgers is probably the best
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: in baseball. Cubs, maybe the Cubs kind of suck. I mean,
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I guess you could argue the Cubs
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: are worse. I don't know. Atlanta's starting rotation is a
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: huge problem outside of Chris Sale. Honestly, they have no
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: other pitchers that are really that good. All right, Detroit
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: and Cleveland. On the surface, this looks like this should
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: be a Cleveland win here. Cleveland swept the doubleheader yesterday,
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: winning both games by one run. really, really not good
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: for Detroit. I was correct about game two, I think.
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: I said Cleveland in game two. Generally, at least, that
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: was my lean. Detroit might be dead. I mean, they're
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: way too far back now. I mean, they're probably going
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: to still have motivation here just because they probably want
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: to just get a game in this series. Cleveland has
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: motivation too, though. They're still trying to make the playoffs.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: They're like right there on the cusp of it and
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: I believe Cleveland is in the last wild card spot
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: right now tons of relief pitchers pitched yesterday though because
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: it was a doubleheader Cleveland used six guys out of
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: the bullpen Detroit used a bunch they used whatever this
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: is seven I would avoid the bullpens here after the
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: doubleheader you know I either avoid bullpens or play overs
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: pretty much the day after a doubleheader. This game doesn't
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: really look like an over to me, though. The bullpens,
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: these are both mediocre bullpens. Cleveland is number 14. They're actually,
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: I would say, on the good side. Detroit, more mediocre.
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: It's 17. Their ERA is over 4. So Cleveland's bullpen
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: is a little bit better. Offensively, Cleveland is really bad.
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: They're number 29, which is why when they're down 6-1,
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: you feel pretty good if your bet is winning 6-1
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: against Cleveland, and then all of a sudden a grand slam,
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: and then your bet loses. Detroit's number 21. Their offense
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: has not been that good recently either, so that's not
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: great if you want to play it over here. Frambois
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: Valdez is pitching for Detroit. Not great. 4.36 ERA is fine-ish,
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: but 1.4 whip is not good. He has not had
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: a great season here. He's basically been pretty much the
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: same home and away, very slightly worse on the road.
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: He's got a good ERA over the past month, but
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio has been awful. Too many walks, also
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: too many hits on top of that, and kind of
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: a low strikeout rate here. So even though he's not
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: allowing that many runs here, it's kind of a mirage.
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: He's not actually pitching well. His hit rate is too
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: high on the season. His walk rate's too high. His
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is very low, like probably the worst that
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: he's ever had. Strikeout walk ratio is pretty much one
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: of the worst he's ever had, too. Really not a
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: good number there. 6.9 strikeout per night is by far
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: the worst he's ever posted, and he's not that old,
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: so something seems a little bit off with him, although
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: this is his first season away from Houston, so I
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: don't know if it's the coaching or what, but he
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: was much, much better when he was on Houston, so
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know what happened to him this year. Numbers
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: against Cleveland, they're mediocre, 118 at best, 254 average, 796 OPS,
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: 22 to 14 strikeout walk ratio, not good. The OPS
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: is kind of high. So, yeah, I would not want
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: to back Valdez here. Parker Messick is on the other side.
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: He's obviously the better pitcher here. 2.46 ERA, 1.02 whip.
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: He's been really good. Slightly worse at home, believe it
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: or not. 2.67 home ERA, as if that's actually bad.
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: He's still pitching well, even though he's up to 161 innings,
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: and that's sometimes what you have to worry about with
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: these young pitchers. The innings count being higher than they've
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: ever thrown before, but it seems like it doesn't matter
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: to him. He's still pitching really well. He's allowed two
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: or fewer runs in every start going all the way
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: back through the last two months. Really good command numbers here,
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: really low ERA. Everything still looks good with him here.
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: faced Detroit not that long ago and was kind of
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: mediocre in that start really good enough though and he
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: was kind of mediocre in both starts actually against Detroit
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: this year but he has a low hit rate on
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: the season pretty low walk rate strikeout rate is like
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: right at one per inning 3.7 strikeout walk ratio not
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: bad 9 strikeout per 9 pretty good there as well
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: numbers overall against Detroit are kind of mediocre though 43
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: at bats 233 average but 771 OPS is a little
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: high Good ratio, though, 13-3 strikeout walk ratio. Messick is
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: the better pitcher here. I expect Cleveland to win this game,
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: so I would not disagree with the Cleveland side, but
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: you're going to have to lay a minus-one run line
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: unless you want to lay a minus-150-something money line, which
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: you could do. They're public, though, 80% of tickets, 83%
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them. I think maybe the real
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: money is coming in that way as well, but I
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: think Messick is clearly the better pitcher here. And Cleveland
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: does have the better bullpen, so... I don't know. I mean,
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: you could leave the bullpens out, and you could lay
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: the half run with Cleveland in the first five, but
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: you need this offense to actually score, although maybe they can.
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: And actually, I like the over in this game as well,
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: though the total's really low. It's seven, and that's partially
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: because these offenses just suck, at least recently. Detroit's just
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: sucked recently, and Cleveland's just sucked all season. Suckiest bunch
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: of sucks who ever sucked. If you remember that Simpsons
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: episode with the— Was that the bowling? I should remember
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: because I know everything about early Simpsons pretty much. I
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: know Homer was talking about bowling, but I forget if
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: it was the bowling league episode or not. Anyway, whatever.
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: What was I saying? Yeah, I lean over here. 76%
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 93% of the cash on the overall, though
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: whenever a total's low like that, the odds makers are
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: telling you they think it's going to be a low-scoring game,
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: but there's no room for error there. The bullpens are shot,
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: so the bullpens are definitely fadable here, and both pitchers
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: do not have great matchup numbers here, and Valdez isn't
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: really that good, so I think the over makes more
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: sense in that game than an under, and I would
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: lean Cleveland slightly there. Anaheim at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh won 1-0 yesterday,
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: so I guess Jared Jones pitched well in that game.
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: A very low-scoring game yesterday. I don't know if this
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: game will be the same or not. Maybe it will be.
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, Anaheim's not a good hitting team, although Pittsburgh
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: is good, and they're particularly good at home. Pittsburgh used
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: two elite pitchers yesterday. Anaheim used two as well. These
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: are not great bullpens. Pittsburgh is the better one. They're
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: number 19, Anaheim number 23, so Pittsburgh probably does have
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: an edge there. Pittsburgh is number six in offense. Anaheim
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: is way worse than that. They're the worst offense in baseball,
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: number 30. Anaheim's going with Yusei Kikuchi here. He's known
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: for being not very good on the road and good
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: at home. 5.65 ERA overall, 1.49 whip. Obviously, that's not good.
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: He's missed a lot of time, though. He's not pitched
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: much this season. He came back in August, and he's
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: actually been okay overall. Uh, he gave up a bunch
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: of runs at Texas, which is not really a great sign,
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: but command numbers were good in that one. He pitched
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: better last time out, of course, at home. What else
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: is new against Pittsburgh or saw, excuse me, it gets Philadelphia.
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: Excuse me. Um, yeah, that was a good start for him,
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: but he's like, he's always better at home for whatever reason. Uh,
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: Anaheim has lost every one of his games this year
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: except his first game of the season. So that's not good.
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: But some of it is because they don't score. He
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: does have a high hit rate on the season. His
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: walk rate is not great. His strikeout rate is fine.
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: He does get strikeouts. What do we do with him, man?
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: I honestly am not sure. He's not good on the road, though. 7.56
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: road ERA. I know that's a bit exaggerated. He's not
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: that bad, but he is always worse on the road
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: throughout his entire career. His numbers against Pittsburgh are actually good, though.
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: They only have six guys who have faced him, 32 at-bats, though.
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: 156 average, 432 LPS, 9-to-1 strikeout walk ratio. So this
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: matchup actually looks decent for him. So how do you
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: weigh that? He has good matchup numbers here, but he's
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: bad on the road. And Pittsburgh is a good offense,
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: although they've been a little bit worse recently. So I
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: don't know. I mean, Kikuchi's current form is actually pretty good.
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: Since coming back, so I kind of think he's actually
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: going to pitch okay here. Maybe I'm crazy. Braxton Ashcraft
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: is on the other side for Pittsburgh. He's been good. 3.59 ERA, 1.08 whip.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: I've backed him on the show repeatedly. He has the
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: same home road ERA here. He's still pitching well, although
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: his innings pitch count is a bit up here. He's
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: got a low hit rate on the season. You do
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: have to worry with a young guy like him. You
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: do have to worry about the innings a bit. But
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: he's still pitching pretty well. He does have a low
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: walk rate. He does have a high strikeout rate. His
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate has gone down a little bit recently, though.
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: So maybe that means he is tiring out a little
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: bit towards the end of the season. But he's still
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: allowing very few runs. His ERA 2.13 over the last month.
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: And Pittsburgh won his last four starts. And they won
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: six of his last seven. So all of that is
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: pretty good. Ashcraft, 4.7 strikeout walk ratio. That is very solid. 9.2
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine. That's good. Anaheim only has one hitter
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: who's faced him. Ballesteros is two for seven off him
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: with two strikeouts. No extra base hits, no walks. So
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: Ashcraft is unfamiliar to the rest of this lineup. That
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: should be good for him. He's unfamiliar to them. I'm
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: thinking maybe the under in this game. Maybe a first
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: five under. I feel like I'm saying under a lot
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: in some of these games. Well, no, I said over
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: in that other game I decided. The money is very
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: strongly on the over here, but the total is 7.5,
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: so the odds makers are throwing out a really low total.
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: Considering that it's Kikuchi on the mound and it's a
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh home game, that is a low total, dude, at 7.5. So,
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: I mean, Ashcraft getting a lot of respect here, but still,
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: that total is low, and I always say it's low
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: for a reason. 79% of tickets on the under, 83%
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the over, though, so the money
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: is coming in on the over. I would kind of
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: lean first five under. I don't know if I really
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: want to trust the bullpens here. Probably still lean Pittsburgh,
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: but you're having to lay minus 180 here, but Ashcraft
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: is definitely better than Kikuchi, and he's got more unfamiliarity here.
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: Kikuchi definitely is a fadeable pitcher on the road. Pittsburgh
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: obviously has the way better offense, and they have the
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: better bullpen, but minus 180-something... You got to knock that
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: price down, make like a minus one run line out
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: of it if you really do that, and hope the
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh's offense can get it going in that game, which
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: they're definitely capable of doing that. But yeah, those are
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: my thoughts on that game. Milwaukee and Cincinnati. this game
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: almost made my card as a total play yesterday's game
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: was really high scoring 10 to 7 And I, in fact,
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: expect that to continue here. I think this game's going
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: to be an over as well. That was a Milwaukee
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: win yesterday, by the way, because of course it was.
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's four relief pitchers. They have the way better bullpen.
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati's five. Milwaukee definitely has a bullpen edge. They're number
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: five in bullpen. Cincinnati, 25th. Milwaukee is the better offense.
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: They're number five. Cincinnati, number 23. Milwaukee, pitching-wise, Dustin May,
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: starting pitcher for them here. He hasn't been great over
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: his last couple of outings. He's having a very mediocre season,
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: I would say. 4.69 ERA, 1.32 whip. He spent most
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: of the season, I believe, with St. Louis. Now he's
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: on Milwaukee. Hasn't been good on the road. 5.55 road ERA,
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: so he is fadeable on the road. His last two,
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: or really his last three starts, he had one start
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: in there where he only lasted a third of an
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: inning because he got hit by a line drive. But
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: he was fine, and he pitched again in the next game,
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: but he was not good at all against Texas. Maybe
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: not a good sign there. He was really bad in
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: the start before that Mets start where he got hit
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: by the line drive. He was bad against Seattle too,
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: so he's in really bad current form. His ERA over
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: the last month, over six, with a 16-10 strikeout walk ratio. Yeah,
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: he's not pitching well at all right now. His hit
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: rate is close to one per inning, which isn't really
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: that good on the season I'm talking about. His walk
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: rate is okay. His strikeout rate is okay. So kind
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: of mediocre, but 2.7 strikeout walk ratio. Again, yeah, that's mediocre. 8.5
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine. Yeah, all right. That's not horrible. Is
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: that what it was? Let me see. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yes, correct.
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: I think I got that right. The way that they
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: do these totals, yeah, yeah, yeah, excuse me, the career
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: number for a minute. I wanted to look at the season,
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: not the career. May against Cincinnati, they have 34 at-bats
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: against them. They have not really hit him for power.
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: Ten strikeouts, one walk, 265 average, 668 OPS. So Cincinnati
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: hasn't really hit him for power, but I don't trust
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: May right now. He's in bad form. He's not good
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: on the road. This is a hitter-friendly park here. He
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: is slightly fly ball heavy, I would say. So I
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: think you might be able to fade him here. And
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: I don't really trust Andrew Abbott, who's pitching for Cincinnati, either.
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: He's had his worst season, like, by far this year. 4.49 ERA, 1.44
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: whip is pretty bad. And he's slightly worse-ish at home.
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: His ERA is worse, 4.78, although his opponent batting average
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: is actually a little bit better at home, whatever. But
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: he's been pretty terrible. recently 21 to 16 strikeout walk
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: ratio in August. That's awful. Uh, ERA close to seven, very,
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: very bad. Um, he's been a bit too hittable recently
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: and really on the season, his hit rates, not very good.
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is way too high. Strikeout rate is low.
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: He's never really been a huge strikeout guy, but his
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio this year is the worst that he's
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: posted by far. 1.6. That's awful. Uh, that's, that's Martine Perez, uh, territory, man.
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: It's actually worse than Perez. Um, Seven strikeout per nine
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: is also, it's low even for him, even though he's
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: not a strikeout pitcher really. His numbers against Milwaukee, they're
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: mediocre in 108 at best, 241 average, 735 OPS, 28
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: to 8 strikeout walk ratio. So the matchup numbers really
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: actually aren't too bad here. That's what's kind of keeping
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: me away from this, but I would lean over on
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: this one still. These pitchers are both in bad form here.
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: They're not pitching well right now. Those matchup numbers do
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: extend across these guys' careers, and they're way worse this season. Well,
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: Abbott is way worse this season. May is not having
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: a great season either. So current form kind of tells
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: me this should be a game where you fade the
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: pitchers here. Totals at 9, so it's a pretty high total.
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: It's high for a reason. 73% of tickets, 94% of
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: the cash on the over. I agree with that. Also,
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: the money is coming in towards Cincinnati. 86% of the
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: tickets and 79% of the cash on Milwaukee at about
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: minus 160. I mean, I understand it. May probably should
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: not be that much of a road favorite here. I
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: can't really back Abbott either, though. If you're going to
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: back Cincinnati at all, I would only do it in
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: the first five because their bullpen is trash. But, yeah,
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: I think the over is the right way to look
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: at that game. All right, Boston-Baltimore. Red Sox have won
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: the first two games of the series here, winning 1-0 yesterday.
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: Reiner Suarez, very efficient yesterday, put together a good start.
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: Red Sox bullpen, closed it out, but they used Chapman again,
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: although he had a quick inning last night, but they
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: have used Chapman two days in a row. Red Sox
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: still generally have the better bull. They use Whitlock two
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: days in a row too. So that's not great. That
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: means the top two Red Sox, uh, relief pitchers are
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: probably not going to pitch today. Uh, they do generally
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: have the better bullpen though, but those are the only
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: two guys that pitched out of the bullpen yesterday. Baltimore
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: use three Red Sox are still ranked number one in
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: bullpen and whip their ERA is a second to the Yankees.
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: It's very close between those two bullpens. Um, Yankees bullpen
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: blew their game yesterday. So maybe the Red Sox almost
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: blew it the day before that, and they're probably going
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: to blow one at some point. Baltimore, number 11 in bullpen.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: They're okay. Red Sox, number eight offensively. They've been hitting
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: a lot better since the All-Star break, as we know,
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: or even since before that. Baltimore, number 20 in offense.
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: They have not been as good. Although both pitchers were good.
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: I did say under in that game yesterday. I did
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: like the under, but I didn't really expect a one
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: run game. One nothing. But yeah, Boz was good on
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: the other side too. Sonny Gray is pitching for the
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: Red Sox here. 2.82 ERA, 1.18 whip. Good season for him. 2.87
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: road ERA. He's a little bit worse on the road,
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: but he's pretty good either way. He's in pretty good
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: form over the past month, low ERA. Now, what the
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: Red Sox are doing is they skipped one of his starts,
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: so he hasn't pitched since August 26 because he's kind
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: of old. Red Sox are trying to manage his pitches, whatever.
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: They're trying to keep him fresh. You can see they're
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: basically not letting him go 100 pitches in any start.
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: He hasn't done it at all this season, so they're
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: letting him go. He pitches pretty efficiently, so they're letting
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: him go like six, seven innings, but they're really watching
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: his pitch count. And I think that was the issue
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: with him the last couple of years is he was
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: throwing too many pitches. So he really like fell off
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: at the end of the season. And the Red Sox
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: are trying to keep that from happening. Maybe they're doing
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: a good job of that. I don't know. But also
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: when a pitcher gets thrown off of his schedule like this,
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I necessarily love that. I could
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: see it going both ways. Like maybe the rest will
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: help him, but maybe being off schedule will throw him
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: off a little bit. Although I don't know if it'll
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: really throw him off. I mean, he's a veteran, so
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: I'm sure he's used to stuff like this. He's got
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: a low hit rate, low walk rate, reasonable strikeout rate here.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: Good numbers here across the board. He's actually in the
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: Cy Young race here. I think he's like fourth or
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: fifth in the Cy Young odds. 3.5 strikeout walk ratio.
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: That number's gone down this year, but he's had a
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: much better year overall than what he did last year.
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: And his strikeout per nine has gone down as well.
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: But again, it has to do with not overworking him.
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: I think St. Louis overworked him a bit. His strikeout
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: per nine is eight this year, which is whatever. He's
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: not good against Baltimore, though. They only have six hitters
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: who have faced him. 41 at-bats, 341 average, 11.07 OPS, 7.04
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. Look back, and I believe he has
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: not faced them this year somehow, even though they're in
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: the same division. I don't know, but he does not
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: have good matchup numbers here, so I don't really love
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: Gray in this spot, man. Chris Bassett is on the
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: other side. You know I'm not a fan of him. 4.97 ERA, 1.58 whip,
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: not good. He's usually better at home, though. 3.35 home
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: ERA is pretty good, although his opponent batting average still
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: isn't good at home. 284, although it is better than
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: it is on the road. He's very fadable on the road,
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: and I believe we did actually do that the last
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: time he pitched on the road. I believe I had
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: an over in that game when he was at the
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: Red Sox, and it just snuck over, and it was
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: mostly the Red Sox doing all the damage, if I
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: remember correctly. Although I might remember that incorrectly. Bassett was
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: not good in his last start against the A's, but
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: actually that start against the Red Sox was a long
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: time ago, so I don't remember correctly. He was in
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: the minors for like two months, basically, and then they
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: brought him back. And since they brought him back, he's
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: been okay. Pretty mediocre numbers here. He had three kind
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: of good starts, actually, and then last one not good,
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: and his walk rate still kind of an issue here.
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: That was at the A's Stadium, though, so maybe give
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: him a pass for that. Baltimore has actually won three
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: of his four starts since coming back from the minors. Overall,
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: his numbers really are kind of bad here, though. A
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: high hit rate on the season. His walk rate's not
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: very good. His strikeout rate's not very good. But he's
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: a little bit better than that recently. So that's what
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: we have to kind of figure out here. Strikeout walk
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: ratio is the Martin Perez number, 1.9. I'm going to
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: keep making fun of him, man. I'm sorry. Bassett sucks,
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: but yeah. I mean, that number's not good, obviously. That's
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: on the season. His strikeout per nine is way down
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: as well, 6.2. Not having a good season overall, man.
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: But again, he has been a little bit better since
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: coming back from the minors. Seems like guys go down
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: to the minors and they just fix shit. He's not
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: good against the Red Sox typically, though. 121 at-bats, 314 average,
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: 835 OPS, 32 to 13 strikeout walk ratio. I would
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: lean over in this game. I mean, maybe you could
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: make the argument for the Red Sox here I think
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: overall Gray is probably the better pitcher but the price
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: is high and Baltimore is trying to avoid like getting
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: swept out of the series you know what I mean
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: so Baltimore is still going to be motivated here at
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: least Red Sox still trying to hang on to a
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: wild card spot although it looks like they will likely
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: get it but 91% of the tickets, 94% of the
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: cash on the Red Sox. They're public. It looks like
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: some of the money is on them too, but a
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: minus 140-something price, not exactly something I really want to do.
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: The money is on the over as well. 54% of tickets,
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: 69% of the cash on the over. The total is
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: pretty reasonable there at eight. Sonny Gray gets respect in
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: the market as far as that's concerned, but the matchup
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: numbers don't look good for either pitcher, although I know
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: Gray has generally been good and Bassett has generally been
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: better at home and is in better form. for the
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: most part recently, except his last start wasn't, but still
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: I would lean over in that one. All right. Uh,
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay and Texas. I know I, I said I
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: have three plays. I do. We just haven't hit any
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: of them yet. Tampa Bay and Texas. I looked at
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: this and I was like, yeah, this is like clearly
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: an under, and then I dug into it and I'm like, yeah, yeah,
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: I don't want to do that. Um, this looks like
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: a really good pitching matchup though. Maybe it will go under, uh,
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: These teams have split the first two games here. Texas
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: lost by one yesterday after winning in a shutout in
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: the first game. Texas, they've both been struggling this year.
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: They used five guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Tampa
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: Bay used five as well. Tampa Bay is number four
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: in bullpen. However, as I keep saying, I don't think
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: they're that good. They're better than Texas, however. Texas is 21st,
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: have not been very good. Offensively, Tampa's definitely the better team.
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: They're number seven. Texas is number 17. Texas, we know
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: it's a pitcher-friendly park here in Texas, and we have
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: two good pitchers on the mound. So I was thinking
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: this did look like an under. Drew Rasmussen is pitching
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: for Tampa. He's been their best pitcher. He's in the
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: Cy Young race here at least. 2.95 ERA,. 93 whip
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: is really good. Really good on the road. 2.69 road
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: ERA with a below 200 opponent batting average. He remains
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: in good form recently. Only one bad start over the
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: past month plus pretty much here. Good numbers still across
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: the board. Low hit rate on the season, low walk rate,
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: pretty high strikeout rate. Everything looks good here. 5.5 strikeout
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: walk ratio is one of the best that he's posted.
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: Given how many innings he's thrown this year, that's like
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: the best that he's posted. So that's very solid. 9.2
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine is also one of his best. Yeah,
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: he's having pretty much a career year at the age
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: of 31. His numbers against Texas, though, are a little
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: bit questionable. 32 at-bats, 281 average, 767 OPS, 6'4, strikeout
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: walk ratios. I don't know if I really want to
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: back him here. I don't know. These hitters have done
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: a decent job against him, so we will see. Jacob
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: DeGrom is on the other side here for Texas. He's
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: having a good season, although his ERA is 4. He's
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: obviously better than that. 1.13 whip is definitely good. The
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: home runs have definitely hurt him, although it's been mostly
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: on the road. He's been really bad on the road,
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: but he's at home here where he's been a lot
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: better this year. 2.42 home ERA with a sub 200
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: batting average. So both pitchers are actually in the better
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: home road split here. DeGrom bounced back from a horrible
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: road start. Two starts to go against the White Sox.
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: Awful start there, but he bounced back with a seven-inning
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: one-hit shutout against the A's. Of course, that was at
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: home with eight strikeouts and no walks. So he is
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: still pitching pretty well here, even though he had a
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: couple of really bad starts in the month of August
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: that really skewed his ERA. If you take those out,
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: he was pitching well, though. He's got a pretty good
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: hit rate on the season. He doesn't really walk many guys.
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: He still has a high strikeout rate on the season.
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: So again, it's kind of a mystery what's happened to
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: his ERA here. Like, where is that coming from? Just, like,
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: untimely home runs that he's allowed? I don't know, man.
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: Strikeout walk ratio is solid, 4.5. Strikeout per nine, 10.9.
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: That's pretty good as well. Numbers against Tampa Bay, though,
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: only five guys have faced him, 20 at-bats, 300 average,
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: 800 OPS. That's not great for him. 3-0 strikeout walk ratio.
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to say I'm going to lean to
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: an over here just because the matchup numbers don't look good.
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: I still think this is an under game, but there
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: are definitely some hesitations that I have with it. The
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers don't look great for it. The total is
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: very low at seven, and I think it probably deserves
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: to be because it is a good pitching matchup here
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and I still probably do lean under,
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: which was my first instinct here. These are still two
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: good pitchers here. 67% of tickets on the over, 89%
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the over, though. So the money
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: looks like it is kind of leaning over. And the
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: money is leaning towards Texas here at around a pick-em price.
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: 69% of tickets on Tampa. Kind of makes sense. Tampa's
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: got the better record. Rasmussen has the better ERA as well.
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: So the public will come in on Tampa. They also
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: like the better offense, which is also Tampa. 57% of
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: the cash on them. So the money is backing Texas here.
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: I say the argument for it. I mean, if it's
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: going to be like a toss-up type of game and
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: you just want to fade the public for that reason,
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: I want there to be a better reason than that.
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: But yeah, it could be a toss-up. It's very, very
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: hard for me to pick a side in this one.
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: It seems like a very, very close matchup to me. But, yeah,
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: I still think under probably makes some sense in that one.
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: Maybe exclude the bullpens, though, because I don't really love
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: the bullpens. But if you play the first five under,
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: you're going to be looking at a three in that game.
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, that full game total is teetering on six
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: and a half. So maybe it is better to just
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: take the full game under seven because at least you
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: get on that key number. Minnesota at the White Sox,
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: a big divisional matchup here. Minnesota is on the verge
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: of being eliminated pretty soon. The White Sox are maintaining
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: their lead in the division, but they need to keep
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: winning because Cleveland keeps winning. I thought it was a
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: bad spot for the White Sox yesterday, and it was
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: against Zebby, who I liked the way that he was pitching,
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: but I didn't love him on the road, and the
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: White Sox got the job done, even though they were
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: in a return home spot, and I think they basically
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: went with a bullpen game or Eric Fetty yesterday, but
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: I did say the under made sense in that game
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: as well, and that did come through. Will the White
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: Sox be able to win again here? The White Sox
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: do have the better bullpen here. They used three guys yesterday.
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: Minnesota used two. White Sox are the better bullpen. They
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: are number 15. Minnesota is one of the worst. They're
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: number 28. White Sox offensively are number 12. Minnesota number 9.
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: White Sox are tied with Houston and Miami there. Minnesota
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: probably is the slightly better offense here. Minnesota's got Taj
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: Bradley on the mound. He's the better pitcher as far
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: as which pitcher has the better stuff. It's definitely him.
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: Way higher ceiling, but he's had some issues, mostly with walks. 3.85 ERA, 1.26 whip.
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: Pretty good season overall, though, but he's not as good
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: on the road. 4.35 road ERA. He walks too many guys.
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: Like I said, he has a high strikeout rate, but
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: he walks way too many guys, and that's continuing to happen. So,
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: It's a little bit hard to gauge what you're going
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: to get out of him. He's a little bit of
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: a roller coaster. He does have a low hit rate.
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: He is hard to hit. He's wild. He walks too
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: many guys, and he strikes out a lot of guys
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: as well. So, again, he does have good stuff, but
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: the walk number is so high that it's keeping his
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: starting out walk ratio a little bit down, 2.7%. 10.4
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine is pretty solid, though. Numbers against the
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: White Sox are not solid. In 46 at-bats, 413 average,
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: 1130 OPS, 8.8 strikeout walk ratio. So Bradley has bad
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers here, and he's not in the better of
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: his own road splits. So, yeah, I don't love Bradley
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: in this one. Do we want to really back Anthony Kaye, though?
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, I still don't like this guy, even though
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: he's had a decent season. 4.28 ERA, 1.35 whip is
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: not very good. I mean, it's nothing personal. I just
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: don't think he's that good of a pitcher. He spent
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: a bunch of time in the Japanese leagues, I'm pretty sure,
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: working on his stuff. Came back over, and yeah, he's
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: had a decent season. He's been pretty good at home. 3.48
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: home ERA, so he is more backable at home, but
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: I don't trust him. I know the advanced analytics guys
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: don't trust him. His last couple starts were both ugly
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: against Texas and Houston, so he seems to be going
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: a little bit out of form here. Even though his
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: command numbers in the month of August were actually pretty good.
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: His hit rate's been too high, though. He's been too hittable. Basically,
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: for the whole season, his hit rate has not been
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: that good. Walk rate's all right. Strikeout rate is definitely low, though.
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: He doesn't really strike guys out, either. Strikeout walk ratio, 2.3,
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: not very impressive. 7.4 strikeout per nine is whatever. Very mediocre.
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: His numbers against Minnesota are actually pretty good, though. 14
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: at-bats is not a big sample, but the majority of
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: their hitters have faced him. 214 average, 695 OPS, 3-1
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, and the only extra base hit is
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: a home run from Brooks Lee. I think I lean
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: White Sox here. I mean, Bradley is overall the better pitcher,
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: I think, but yeah, the matchup, to me, it seems
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: like the home road splits and the matchup favor the
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: White Sox here. The money's not agreeing with it at all.
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, Minnesota is going to be in desperation mode.
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: Minnesota needs the game more, and you are getting them
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: as an underdog here. And I do like that. I
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: don't love playing on a team that needs to win
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: because a lot of times they're overvalued in the market.
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: But when they're an underdog, that is something that I
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: definitely look at. 57% of tickets are on the White Sox.
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: 83% of the cash on Minnesota. So the money's back
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: in Minnesota. It's also back in the over here at
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: eight and a half uh the white socks around minus
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: 120 something uh is a favorite i still lean white
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: socks in that one though uh based on what that
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: matchup looks like am i gonna do it no definitely
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: not um dirty sock what's up uh thanks for hanging
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: out next game is uh my first play and this
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: is uh you know what it's gonna be because this
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: is just uh You know, if it ain't broke, don't
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: fix it, I guess. I'm going to do the same
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: thing I did in the same pitching matchup a couple
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: weeks ago. This is Toronto, Kansas City. Zach, we're going
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: to take the Royals here. They were good to me
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: the other day, although they had to get it done
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: in the fifth inning, but we're going to do it again.
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: We're going to take Kansas City in the first five,
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: and I did it against Toronto in Toronto when we
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: had the same pitching matchup. And this pitching matchup is
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: actually better for Kansas City in Kansas City. So if
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: it worked in Toronto, all right, well, it better work
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: in Kansas. Maybe that means it won't now.
• 50:17
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: But the home road splits didn't really favor it when
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: I did it in Toronto. I just like the matchup numbers.
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: And we got it right back in Seth Lugo. But
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: I'd rather back him at home, and that's what we
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: got here. So this is really a matchup play. I
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: don't want to deal with Kansas City's bullpen. Their bullpen's awful.
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: So I'm going to avoid their bullpen here. Even though
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: they only used two relief pitchers. I don't care. I
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: want to avoid them. Toronto used four yesterday, but whatever.
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: It's expanded bullpens. I don't want to deal with Kansas
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: City's bullpen ever. I'm playing a lot of Kansas City
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: first fives recently. They're getting the job done, so why not?
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: Toronto's number 16 in bullpen. The Royals are ranked dead last.
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: They're still better than the A's, but they are the
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: second worst bullpen. Toronto... offensively, they're terrible. They're 27th. The
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: Royals are a little bit better than that. The Royals
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: are 15th, actually. The Royals have been hitting better recently,
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: and they are better at home as well. So that's
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: the other thing. The home road splits here as far
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: as the team's Toronto's below 500 on the road. They're
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: basically a 500 team either way, though. The Royals, even
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: though they're a bad team, they are above 500 at home,
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: so they do play better at home. And we're fading
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: Max Scherzer here. I mean, again, he's at the end
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: of his rope, man. He has not had a good season. 6.16 ERA, 1.39 whip. Yeah,
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: I mean, the whip does indicate his ERA should probably be, like, something,
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: which is still not good. He's been a bit worse
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: on the road, even though his ERA is a little
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: bit better. His opponent batting average is higher on the road.
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: He was really good last time out against Seattle, but Seattle,
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: they have been a pretty putrid offense this year. They're
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: playing some bad baseball, even still. So yeah, Scherzer, yeah,
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: it looks like he's in decent form here. He shredded Seattle.
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: Wasn't pitching well before that, and we got the win
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: fading him against Kansas City the start before that, where
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: He should have allowed more runs. He allowed two runs,
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: but he had five walks in that game in five innings.
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: He was not pitching well in that one. And in fact,
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: his walk rate has definitely been high recently, even though
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: he did not walk many guys against Seattle. He only
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: walked one, but he's not having a good season, man.
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: His hit rate's very mediocre. His walk rate is mediocre,
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: I would say. Strikeout rate is way down, so his
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio is not good at this point. In fact,
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: it's quite bad, actually. 1.8, that's not good. Again, I
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: think this might be his last season, man. I don't know. 7.3
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: strikeout per night is also way down from what he's
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: done throughout his career. Not really good. Not good. But
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: the reason why I faded him last time is he's
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: not good against Kansas City. And this is throughout his
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: entire career. So even when Scherzer was better, he didn't
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: do well against them. 92 at-bats, 283 average allowed, 855 OPS,
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: 21-7 strikeout walk ratio. Although, yes, 38 of these at-bats
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: are Salvador Perez. And Perez does mash this guy. But
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: even so, even if you take him out, the numbers
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: are still pretty good here against him. So I am
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: still going to fade him here. And I'm going to
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: back Seth Lugo again, who I did last time against Toronto,
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: even though he hasn't been that good. 5.03 ERA, 1.42 whip,
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: but he is definitely better at home. 3.98 home ERA,
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: and I figure if he could do well against Toronto
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: on the road... He better be able to do well
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: at home, where he definitely pitches better. He was awful
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: last time out against Cleveland, but he pitched well against Toronto.
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: In fact, he's been really bad over the past month,
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: but he's had two good starts. One was inexplicably against
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: the Cubs. That was at home, though. His only other
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: home start was against the A's, and he gave up
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: five runs, but he actually was fairly good in that start.
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: He had three strikeouts, no walks, so he actually wasn't
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: that bad. in that start. And his only good road
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: start in this entire month was against Toronto. So I
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: figure if he can do that, he should be able
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: to bounce back and pitch well here, even though he
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: has not pitched well over this month. His hit rate
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: is way too high on the season, which is concerning
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: for Scherzer. Scherzer has actually been the less hittable pitcher here.
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: Lugo doesn't really walk that many guys, but he also
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: doesn't really strike guys out His strikeout walk ratio is
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: at least better than Scherzer. 2.4, which is still not good. 6.9
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine is obviously not good, but Lugo does
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: do well against Toronto. 65 at-bats, 215 average, 599 OPS allowed,
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: 18-7 strikeout walk ratio. So this is a matchup play,
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: and it worked before on the road, and the home
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: road splits... really were against it on the road, but
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: they're for it here at home. And the money seems to, well,
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: the money was agreeing with me, but now it isn't.
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: 71% of tickets, 74% of the cash on Toronto, but
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: the money was agreeing with me before. But to me,
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: I think there's a reason why the Royals are favored.
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: Like the public is going to come in on Toronto.
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: They're going to, oh yeah, Toronto with Max Scherzer. You know,
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: we know the name Scherzer. Toronto has a better record.
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: Everybody knows Toronto needs to win because they're trying to
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: hang on to any hope of trying to make the
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: playoffs here. puts the pressure on them Kansas City can
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: play loose there's no pressure on them here again the
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: line looks it looks way too easy to play Toronto
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: to me like at a pick'em price it's almost like
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: the books are begging you to play Toronto so I
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: say we're not going to do that we're going to
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: take Kansas City in the first five the money's also
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: begging the over nine and a half here it's a
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: high total I don't really necessarily disagree with that. I mean,
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: I think both pitchers have definitely had some issues here.
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: So the over probably makes sense. Kansas City also has
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: a pretty bad bullpen. So, yeah, the over probably does
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: make more sense than an under in that one. All right,
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: I'm going to be right back. I'll talk about the
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: rest of these games. And you can check out my
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: college football show that I did last night. You know,
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: way too much to do in the morning, obviously. So
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: college football is a night show for me. It's just
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: way too much content, man. We need more viewers here
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: to really make it worth it, though. I'll be right back. Yep. Inside,
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: I want to kill myself. We are on an 0-7
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight was just
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going to start off
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: this show. Horrible Sunday, 1-5, I don't even know what
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: to tell you about that. I just don't want to
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: do this anymore. I have never seen anything like this, man.
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: With the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a good
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: day at all, 0-4. I just have not had a
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: good season, man, with what can slump that I'm on.
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: The slump continues. I've reached a new peak, actually. I'm
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: gonna burn my Bruins hat, man. I don't know what
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: is going on with the Bruins. March 8th? Is that
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: what it is? I don't even know. It's March 9th,
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: I think. Who even knows, man. I don't know what
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: day it is anymore. I don't even know what day
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: it is anymore, man. Back with you after the worst
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: day that I could possibly have. Back with you as
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: I always am. Until I die, at least. 0-2 yesterday,
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5, the
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: worst month that I've ever had in my 18 years
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: doing this. I don't know what to even tell you
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all. Well, yeah, people
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: don't like my autism. I don't know. This is not
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: an exciting show. I'm trying to give out a lot
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: of good information here, but I don't know. I don't
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: know what to tell you, man. Arizona at Houston. This
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: game is on Fox. There are two games on Fox
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: at the same time, although... I pretty much expect that
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: the viewership is going to be on the Yankees-Padres game
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: and not so much on D-backs-Astros. The Astros won yesterday 3-1.
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: Both of these teams are trying to maintain playoff positioning here.
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: The D-backs are probably a bit more desperate because they're
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: going to have to get a wild card, whereas Houston
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: is atop their division right now by a few games.
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: So the desperation is going to be on Arizona for
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: the most part, I would say, although both teams should
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: be motivated. But look at the... The fact that Arizona
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: lost yesterday, the fact they should have extra motivation, and
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: looking at the starting pitching, this looks like this should
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: be Arizona getting this game here. Arizona might have the
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: slightly better bullpen. They only used two guys out of
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: the bullpen over the last two days, so their bullpen
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: is definitely rested. Houston, not so much. They had to
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: play the last two days, and they used four guys yesterday.
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: Arizona is ranked 6th in bullpen, although I still don't
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: think they're that good. Their ERA is above 4. Houston's
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: ERA is slightly better. They're ranked 12th, but I think
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: I'm going to give Arizona a slight bullpen edge. Arizona,
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: a slight bullpen edge here. Houston is the better offense.
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: They're ranked 12th, tied with the White Sox and the Marlins.
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: D-backs are 22 offensively, although they've been better defensively. in
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: the second half of the season despite that Marte holdout
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: situation bullshit or mental whatever the hell was going on
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: with them mental situation Brandon Fott is pitching for Arizona
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: he completely turned his season around after they sent him
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: to the minors they brought him back up he's been
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: way better 3.49 ERA, 1.14 whip on the season. That's
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: pretty good. He's also a little bit better on the
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: road ERA-wise, 3.22 road ERA, although his opponent batting average
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: is worse on the road. He is starting to struggle
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: a little bit, sort of. His last three starts haven't
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: really been that good, although the D-backs won, even though
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: he didn't pitch that well against the Red Sox and
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: the Cubs, and then they lost his last game where
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: he allowed fewer runs again, but he only had one
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: strikeout there. He's not striking out a ton of guys,
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: but he's also not putting a ton of guys on base.
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: And like I said, when they brought him back from
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: the minors, he just started pitching way better, which was,
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: let me see, where was it? He was in the
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: minors for basically the entire month of June. And since
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: they brought him back up, he's only allowed more than
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: two run runs twice, although that was in two of
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: his last three starts he's done.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 4: That, though.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: So maybe he is falling a little bit out of
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: form here. Numbers on the season, pretty good. Low hit rate,
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: low walk rate. The only thing that's bad is he
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: doesn't strike guys out. um, 2.7 strikeout walk ratio is
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: the worst that he's ever posted, but I don't know,
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: he's just pitching differently now, but these are the best
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: numbers that he's had, uh, if you look at his
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: previous seasons, uh, these numbers actually beat all of those seasons, um,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: as far as, you know, whip and ERA and whatever,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine is way lower, 5.9, so I don't know, he's,
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: He's pitching differently, that's for sure. The advanced analytics guys
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: probably don't like it. Fodd has not been good against
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: Houston in 35 at-bats, 343 average allowed, 1,052 OPS, 9-3
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. Those numbers are not good, obviously. So
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: I don't really want to trust him. It looks like
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: he's a little bit out of form here. Doesn't pitch
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: well against Houston specifically. Houston's going with Ethan Pecco, young
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: guy who has not been good so far, 6.23 ERA, 1.54 whip.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: He's made three starts so far in his career, and
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: Houston has won all three of them, but he did
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: not pitch well. He's got a 9-9 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: That is pretty bad, so he's got to fix that,
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: although I would say his last start was better than
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: the previous two. He made it five innings finally against
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: the Mets. They're not a good hitting lineup, though. Arizona
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: could hit better than the Mets, I would say. Pecco, obviously,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: he's unfamiliar to Arizona, so maybe that'll be an edge
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: for him. He does seem to be at least improving
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: a little bit and trending in the right direction. I
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: still don't really want to trust him here, though. I
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: kind of think this is an over game here, but
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: let me see. The money is not agreeing with that,
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: but it looks like kind of a public under, although
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: I don't think the public really plays unders, especially in
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: a game where I don't think they really love the pitching.
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: 78% of tickets on the under, 80% of the cash
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: on the under. The total is 8.5%. It's a slightly
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: high total, I guess. Bozmaker's kind of just throwing the
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: total right in the mid-range there. The money is still
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: coming in on Arizona, and that was my first instinct
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: on this game. 56% of tickets, 82% of the cash
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: on Arizona. I do think Fott is better than Pecco
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: right now, even though he's fallen off a little bit
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: in his recent starts. Houston, it looks like they're basically
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: a pick-em price here. It almost kind of looks too easy.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: to play Houston. I don't know, man. But yeah, I
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: think I will still lean Arizona. I'll still lean with
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: the market there towards Arizona, but I would lean over
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: as well. I don't even know which one I think
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: is better. I mean, maybe I circle back around to, yeah,
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: maybe I do actually like Arizona better than anything else
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: in that game. I don't know, man. Yes, I don't
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: know what I said, but yeah, all right. Next game
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: is a play for me. This one, I was back
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: and forth on whether to add it to the card.
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: I decided to do it. We're going to take Yankees
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: Padres under eight here, although it's mostly seven and a
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: half out there, but I was fine with a minus
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: 118 price on this. Although you can get a seven
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: and a half at a pretty good price, like probably
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: at even money, I would say. So if you want
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: to do that, fine. Seven is the key number as
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: opposed to eight, but I don't know. I mean, for
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: some reason I was just like, well, if it's less
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: than minus 120, maybe I do want the extra half run,
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: even though it's not an important half run. I don't know,
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: but I like this game to be low-scoring, and yesterday's was.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: It was a 3-2 San Diego win, and they won
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: with a walk-off two-run home run against the Yankees, so
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: very dramatic win for San Diego. San Diego should be
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: a little bit extra motivated here, and I thought that
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: was a bad spot for San Diego yesterday. They were
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: returning home from the road cross-country, and the Yankees were
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: already out in the Pacific time zone, and the Yankees
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: could not get that game. San Diego is probably going
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: to be the more desperate team, because like Arizona, They're
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: fighting for a wild card spot. Yankees are pretty much
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: guaranteed at least a wild card spot at this point.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: The Yankees only used two relief pitchers yesterday, although Bednar,
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: their closer, shit the Bednar in the game yesterday and
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: gave up that home run, although he is typically good.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: San Diego used their closer as well, Mason Miller. They
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: used four guys yesterday. Both bullpens are good. The Yankees'
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: bullpen is slightly better and slightly more rested. They're number
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: two with the best bullpen ERA, though. So it's like
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: Red Sox and Yankees are both neck and neck as
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: far as the top two bullpens. San Diego, not far behind.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: They're ranked seventh, but they're a top five bullpen, as
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: I keep saying, along with Milwaukee and Atlanta, in my opinion.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: Yankees offensively are number 15, tied with the Royals. San
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: Diego is 25th, although San Diego has definitely been better
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: since the All-Star break. So offensively, I don't think there's
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: a huge edge one way or the other, but these
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: offenses have definitely had their struggles. And I know yesterday's
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: game went under, so sometimes I like to zigzag that,
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: but I think the pitching matchup is under-conducive here. We
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: have good bullpens here. And this is a pitcher-friendly ballpark
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: in San Diego. Although the Yankees, excuse me, San Diego,
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: now that they've adjusted to the Pacific time zone, maybe
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: their hitting will be a little bit better here. But
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: I think the pitching can get this done. Carlos Rodon
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: is pitching for the Yankees, or Rodon. I don't know
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: how to pronounce his name, to be honest. A lot
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: of commentators say Rodon. I thought it was Rodon. I
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: don't know how you pronounce that O with the accent
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: that ESPN doesn't put on there. 3.2 ERA, 1.19 whip
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: from him. He's had a good season, kind of a
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: short season because he was injured for a lot of it,
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: but he's pitched pretty well. He's slightly less good on
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: the road, 3.41 road ERA, but his opponent batting average
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: is better on the road, and it's below 200 in
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: both home and away. He's not going deep into his
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: outings yet, but I'm still fine with this under here.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: I think we got an under right in his last
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: game against the red side. Did we have an under
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: in that? No, I think I just leaned to the under,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: but I didn't do it. I forget. I swear I
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: had an under with him in one of these games.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: Or no, I think I backed him as a side maybe.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: I forget. Whatever, but he's only gone four innings. Since
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: he's come back from his injury, he's only gone four
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: to four and two-thirds innings in each one of his starts.
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: But you can see that they're ramping him up, right?
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: They've had him throw ten more pitches basically every time.
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: So he might be at full capacity in this game, right? Like,
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: they might let him go close to 100 pitches this time.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: So I think he'll be at full strength here. But
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: even if he's not, I think the Yankees bullpen can
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: finish the job here. But Radon has pitched okay enough recently,
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: in my opinion. His ERA in the twos since coming back,
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: not bad. Fine numbers, really, across the board.
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 3: Just.
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: Not great, but fine. His hit rate is low on
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: the season. He does have some walk issues. That's his
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: one issue, the walks. His strikeout rate is pretty good,
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: but his command has been somewhat fine recently, although I
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: don't like that he has a two strikeout walk ratio
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: on the season, but typically he is better than that,
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: and it's such a small sample size this year. I'm
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: not going to put that much weight into that. Strikeout
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: per nine, fine, 9.6, so he does strike guys out still.
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: And he's been good in the past against the Padres,
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: 68 at-bats, 221 average, 597 OPS, 19-8 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: So I think he does have the matchup edge against that.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: offense and i also think robbie ray believe it or
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: not has the edge here as well against the yankees
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: offense ray 3.14 era although i don't love him his
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: whip is always indicative that his era should be high
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: or 1.3 whip is not really that good but he's
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: always better at home for whatever reason well i think
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: i know the reason because he was on san francisco
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: and they have a pitcher-friendly park, 2.72 home ERA, by
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: the way, on the season, but I don't think that's
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: going to change much with San Diego because they also
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: have a pitcher-friendly park, so he should make the adjustment
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: pretty easily, and in fact, he's done pretty well so
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: far with San Diego. He had one bad start in
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: his first start with San Diego, but he kind of
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: got it together and started pitching better. He's regained form,
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: and even though they lost his last two starts, he's
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: been better recently. Those were both extra inning games, too,
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: so he's absolutely keeping his team in the games, and
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: Since that first start of his, every one of his
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: games except the last one has gone seven or fewer
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: runs here. Although I do not like his strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: I get it. 19 to 16. He walks way too
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: many guys. That is a problem. He's got to stop
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: doing that. And he masks it by getting a lot
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: of ground ball outs. Actually, not really. I thought he
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: was a ground ball pitcher, but I guess he isn't.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: He's more of a fly ball pitcher. But whatever, because
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: in San Diego, it's a deep ballpark, and it can
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: knock those fly balls down. He does have a low
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: hit rate on the season. His walk rate is definitely
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 2: too high. uh his strikeout rate is not very good
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: so that means his strikeout walk ratio is not good
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: it's pretty bad in fact 1.7 i don't love that
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: i know um 7.6 strikeout per night is okay but
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: Ray has generally been good over the last couple seasons,
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: even though he did fall apart at the end of
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: last season. But his matchup numbers are pretty good against
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: the Yankees, and it's a big sample. 80 at-bats, 28-4
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, 200 average, 526 OPS allowed. So he
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: has had the upper hand against these Yankees' bats for
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: whatever reason. This one was the last one that I
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: added to my card. If I was going to cut
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: one of these games, it was going to be this one,
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: but I thought it was just good enough to do it.
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: The money looks like it's on the over here, but
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: when I looked at Action Network, Action Network was showing
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: the money on the under, so I don't know. 75%
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 94% of the cash on the over. It's
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: a low total. It's 7.5. It's 7.5 for a reason.
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: The odds makers are expecting it to be a low-scoring game.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: Both offenses have had their issues. It's a pitcher-friendly park.
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: You have Good matchup numbers from both pitchers here. They're
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: both pitchers that go a bit under the radar. These
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: are not named pitchers here, so I kind of like
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: playing unders when you have pitchers that should be good
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: enough and they're not pitchers that the public likes to play.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: That tends to be good, and the bullpens are both good. So, yeah,
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: let's do it under, even though I know both closers
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: got used yesterday, but let's do it anyway, under 7.5
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: or 8 in that one. Wait, what? Your name is
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: Charles Adams. How could anybody get that wrong? Unless that's
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: a fake name. I don't know what we're saying here. St.
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: Louis and Colorado. This was a kind of wild game yesterday. St.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: Louis won 7-6. I believe St. Louis was winning and
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: then they blew the game and there was some weird
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: thing with the umpire telling, or the home plate umpire,
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, telling... one of the Cardinals pitchers to not
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: have a crooked hat. And I'm like, oh, this umpire
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: is going to come after Sonny Gray next for having his, yeah,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: and Sonny Gray's pitching today for having the, you know,
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: the hat basically sideways. I don't know. I have no
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: idea what that was. It was very, very bizarre. You
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: can find it on Twitter and whatever. I'm sure you
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: can find videos of that out there. That umpire, there
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: was something going on with him, man. Maybe he's having
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: a bad personal situation. I don't know what the hell
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: that was. But St. Louis wound up winning the game 7-6.
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, these are basically two teams that are probably
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: going nowhere. The two bullpens are both bad, so I
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: would not want to back either bullpen here. Colorado used
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: four guys out of their bullpen. St. Louis also used four.
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: Let me see. Yeah, that's right. Colorado, bullpen-wise, yeah. I mean,
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: we know they're bad, number 27. St. Louis is not
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: much better, number 22. They're both bad in ERA. Colorado
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: is a good offense, at least. They're number four in offense.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 4: St.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: Louis is number 24. Matthew Liberatore getting the start for St.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: Louis.
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: He is not good. 5.41 ERA, 1.47 whip, not good.
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 2: He is a little bit better on the road, 4.93
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: road ERA. Problem is, I don't think he's going to
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: do well in this stadium, although he's actually been all
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: right command-wise. You look at his command numbers over the
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: past month or so, actually really good. 41 to 7
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio is actually really good. But his team
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: has lost his last five games anyway. He's given up
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: a ton of runs. He's given up a lot of
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: home runs here. He hasn't been exactly that hittable. So
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: I'm not really sure. It does look like his recent
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: ERA being high is a little bit misleading, actually. He's
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: had command that has actually been good, but I still
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: don't think he's good. I still don't trust him. He
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: has a high hit rate on the season. He is
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: way too hittable. He does allow too many home runs.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: That is not what you want in Coors Field. He
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: is definitely a fly ball pitcher. You don't want that
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: in Coors Field. His walk number is okay. His strikeout
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: rate is pretty good. So he does strike guys out.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: Three strikeout walk ratio, fine. 9.4 strikeout per nine is
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: actually the best that he's ever posted. But yeah, I mean,
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: he might succumb to the stadium. You know what I mean?
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: And it looks like he probably has in the past
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: because Colorado has definitely been able to hit him. Most
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: of their hitters have faced him before. Seven guys have
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: faced him. 29 at-bats. I know it's not a big sample,
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: but they have a. 448 average,. 1242 OPS against him.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 2: So I don't think he matches up well here. Colorado
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: hits him well. He's definitely having some problems here. Those
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: command numbers have been good recently. He gives up too
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 2: many home runs, so that's not good. Mason Adams is
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 2: pitching on the other side for Colorado. I don't know
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: what to think about him. He's got a 3 ERA,
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: but a 1.44 whip is not that good. He's only
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: made two appearances ever in the majors so far, and
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: he hasn't really been that bad. Nine innings pitch combined,
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: eight hits allowed, three earned runs allowed, five walks is
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: the only issue here. The walks are a little bit
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: of an issue. Ten strikeouts, but he actually pitched pretty
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: well last time out against Atlanta, and I had Colorado
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: in that game. That was a play I gave out.
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: Colorado first five, and they were down one run, so
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: they didn't cover the plus half run in the first five,
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: and they Covered the plus one and a half full game.
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: Took it to extra innings. So, yeah, whatever. My handicap
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: was kind of right, though, in that Adams did pitch
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: pretty well in that one. This will be Adams' first
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: start in Coors Field, though. Do you want to trust
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: him in Coors Field when he's pitching here for the
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: first time? Even though St. Louis is not a good
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: offense and you've never seen him before, I don't think
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: I want to trust him. I'm probably kind of leaning
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: over in this one. Let me see. What are we
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: looking at here? The money seems to agree. 60% of
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: tickets on the under, 87% of the cash on the over.
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: You can probably find it at 10.5 out there. I
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: would try to find that if you can because 11
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 2: is a key number. All the odd numbers are key.
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: Over makes sense to me. The money is back in Colorado.
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: 84% of tickets, 50% of the cash on St. Louis. St.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: Louis at minus 120. They're a very public side here.
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: I don't really disagree with Colorado. I would probably do
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: it in the first five, though, because I hate their bullpen.
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: But Adams might be able to outpitch Libertore, man. I
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: don't know if I want to try to back him
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: in his first Coors game, though, right? But we kind
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: of know Libertore should be bad, basically, here. So there
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: are some arguments for taking Colorado first five here as
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: probably a slight underdog. Possibly the best way to play this.
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: So you could take Colorado to go over their team total.
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: And then that kind of plays into... We kind of
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: lean towards Colorado. We like the over here. Colorado over
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: their team total as the underdog does make some sense here.
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: I think you'll need them to score six probably to
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: get that done. But they could definitely do it. They
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: did it last night even though they lost. So that's
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: the other thing. They could do that and still lose
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: as well. So I think that's what I would do.
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: Maybe that's the right way to play it is Colorado
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: team total over Colorado. Yeah, Radon.
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 3: I don't.
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: Know. What percentage go over? I don't know. Probably close
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: to 50%. Because the oddsmakers always throw a high total up.
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: They have to throw a high total on all the
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: Coors games because everybody knows they're high-scoring games. So the
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: oddsmakers are not stupid. Like, you're... Where generally you get
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: a total... Like, the average total in a baseball game
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: is like 8, 8.5. The average total that you see for, like,
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: the line in a Coors game is like 10.5. So...
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: The Ozmakers, yeah, they know what they're doing. Yeah, it's
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: going to be close to 50-50, over-under. Washington at the Dodgers.
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: This is a play for me. This is another under,
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: and I think we've got to go full game on this,
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: even though you know I don't like Washington's bullpen. These
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 2: bullpens could hurt us, but I'm banking on these starters
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: to get us deep into this game here, and First,
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: you could go first five if you want. I wouldn't
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: disagree with that, but it was a three and a half.
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: You know how much I hate that shit at this point,
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: and I'm hoping the starting pitching can get us deep
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: into this game here. And we get the key number,
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 2: seven and a half here, and it's a decent price.
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 2: I saw an eight at minus 120 as well. I
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: didn't quite want to do that, even though I was
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: willing to do it in the other game. It's slightly
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: below minus 120. If you wanted to do that, fine.
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I like the under here. Dodgers won the
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: game yesterday five to three. And by the way, I
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: said Dodgers-Seattle might have been like a Moneyline parlay, but
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: I said probably one of them will lose because the
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: oddsmakers needed one of them to lose because it was
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: going to be a popular baseball parlay. Well, yeah, Seattle lost.
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: Logan Gilbert got bombed again. He gave up a ton
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: of home runs again. A ton of home runs again.
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: I don't know what's up with that guy. But anyway,
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: Dodgers did win. They're the better team here. They have
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen here. Dodgers did use five relief pitchers,
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: which I don't love, but I think a lot of
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: their better relievers didn't really come into it. Well, actually,
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Henriquez is one of their better guys.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: He did, but I don't know. I'm still going to
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: do this anyway, though. It's bullpen call-up season. Washington only
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: used two of their guys yesterday. And yes, I know
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: the bullpens are not excellent. The Dodgers are fine. They're
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: number 10. Washington, 26, though. Not exactly great, but whatever.
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: These are good offenses. I get it. Number two, LA,
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: and number three, Washington. But I think they can be
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: held down by these pitchers, man. I like both pitchers here.
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: Cade Cavalli, who I identified early on, this guy is
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: actually good. Well, I've been proven right about that. He's
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: got a 3.12 ERA now. 1.2 whip does indicate his
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: ERA should be a little bit higher, but that's still
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: not bad. And he's been good on the road. 2.94
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: road ERA. He's a little bit better on the road.
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: Only made it four innings. last time against Miami. I'm
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 2: not exactly sure what that was, but they've been winning
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: their games behind him. What is this? This is eight
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: out of the last nine games Washington has won. He's
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: allowed three or fewer earned runs in all those games.
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: In fact, going all the way back into early June,
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 2: he hasn't allowed more than that. He's pitching really well.
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 2: He's been really hard to hit, not walking too many guys.
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: High strikeout rate. Really, really good numbers here. For the
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 2: full season, the numbers are also good. Low hit rate.
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: The walk rate's pretty low. Strikeout rate is high. Really, really,
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: really good here. 3.8 strikeout walk ratio is pretty good. 10.4
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine, also good. Dodgers are basically unfamiliar with him, too.
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: Only Fiducia has ever seen him, and he is only
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 2: at bat he walked. But I don't know, man. Maybe
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 2: there'll be some fiduciary concerns here. I don't know. I
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: can't come up with a better joke about his name.
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: I don't know. But Cavalli's basically unfamiliar to the Dodgers.
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: You know what I always say when a young pitcher
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 2: is unfamiliar to the opposing offense. He actually has an
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: extra edge. So I think he could do well here
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 2: for sure. He seems to step it up in kind
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: of big games, too, like that one where he got
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 2: really emotional at the Red Sox and whatever. I don't
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 2: like him for that reason, but I think he's a
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: good pitcher, and I think he should do well here.
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: And I don't really have concerns about Tyler Glasnow, who's
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: on the other side here. He's fresh because, of course,
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: you know what the Dodgers do with Glasnow and Snell,
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: who pitched last night. They're injured for almost the entire season.
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: And then, oh, yeah, now they're no longer injured. Let's go.
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: And now... They're basically both ace caliber pitchers, and they're
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: in the starting rotation for the stretch run. He's got
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: a 2.79 ERA,. 01 whip. Small sample this year, but
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: obviously that's good. And obviously, if you look at his
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: career numbers, he's been really good. He's not quite as
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: good at home this year with a 4.08 home ERA,
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: but his opponent batting average is 194 at home, so
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: that's not exactly bad. Since he's come back from the injury,
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: he's made two starts and he's been good. 13-1 strikeout
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. Yeah, he's allowed four runs in 12 innings.
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: He was really good last time out at Detroit. Hasn't
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: pitched yet at home since coming back, but I expect
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: him to be fine. Washington has 20 at-bats against him.
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 2: Not a big sample here. Seven hitters have faced him.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: 200 average, 673 OPS. He should pitch well against some
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: good matchup numbers here. I say we go with it.
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: Under in this game, the Public is all over the
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: over in this one. The public sees this, even though
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: these are good pitchers, I think the public doesn't realize
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: how good these pitchers are. Cause even, even Glasnow is
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: just not really a name pitcher anymore. Like what is
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: he a city in Scotland? Um, But yeah, 93% of
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: tickets are on the over, 91% of the cash. This
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: is a very public over. We're taking the under in
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: this one. I'm pretty sure you can find a 7.5
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 2: out there, although it looks like this line has definitely
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: been plummeting from what I found earlier this morning. But
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: find the 7 or 7.5 on this. I think you'll
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: be able to do it. Or you could go first
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: five with it. I wouldn't disagree with that. Dodgers at
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: minus 213 or so here on the money line. I
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: wouldn't want to do anything with that. 95% of tickets,
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: 86% of the cash on the Dodgers. So the money
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: is indicating on Washington. There are some arguments for Washington
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: first five here. If you take the big underdog and
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: you think that both pitchers are going to duel and
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: it's going to be a close game, and I do
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: think that, then the underdog does make sense. But I
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: wouldn't want Washington's bullpen. So I think you could do, yeah,
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: like Washington plus a half run in the first five
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: or something there. All right, so that's that play. I
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: know I'm changing up how I do these unders a
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 2: little bit. I fucking hate these first five unders, three
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: and a half, and there's just no leeway there. All right,
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: and then A is Seattle's last game. Seattle has to
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: do something, man. They're almost dead. They've fallen way behind now.
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: They're 10 games below.
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: 500.
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 2: I thought they were going to win this division, even
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: after they were not doing too well. Cal Raleigh has
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: totally turned it around. He's starting to hit really well. Apparently,
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: it doesn't matter. They've lost two games in a row
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: at home to the A's. Inexcusable, man. Inexcusable. Seattle's going
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: to be in total desperation mode, though. You've got to
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: think they've got to win this game. Are they going to, though?
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: I'm not so sure. They're not playing well. They do
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: have the better bullpen. The A's bullpen sucks. Oh, sorry,
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: that was Atlanta. My mistake. The A's used five relief
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday. Seattle used four. Seattle's bullpen hasn't been that
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 2: good either, though. They have guys that were really good
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: last year, but their ERA is not good in the mid-fours.
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: They're number 20 in bullpens, so they haven't been good either,
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: although the A's, even though they're ranked 29th, they're the
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: worst bullpen. So Seattle does have the bullpen edge, although
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: both bullpens kind of suck at this point. Seattle's offense
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 2: has definitely been bad on the season, 28th, but they've
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 2: been hitting better at least recently. The A's offense is better.
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: They're number 10, and they've been hitting well again recently too.
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: Pitching matchup here, Jeffrey Springs is pitching for the A's.
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: Not a good season for him. 6.37 ERA, 1.5 whip.
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 2: You know that he's better on the road, though, because
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 2: all of the A's pitchers pretty much are better on
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: the road because their home stadium sucks for pitching. They
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: got to move, man. They got to get their asses
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: to Vegas, to a real stadium. But he's got a 5.37
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: road ERA. I know that's not good, but he's definitely
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: better on the road. And last year, he actually was
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: a decent pitcher. In his first season with the A's,
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: he pitched the full season. He was really not bad.
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 2: So I don't think Springs is as bad as maybe
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: his numbers would suggest, but he's definitely not had a
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: good season. Now, he does have a fairly high hit
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: rate here, which isn't good. He's allowed way too many
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: home runs, so that is a problem, although it's obviously
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 2: way more of a problem at home. His walk rate
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: is a problem as well. His strikeout rate's not that
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 2: good either. So yeah, he's not had a good season
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: for sure. That, yeah. Not good. 2 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: That's not good. 7.2 strikeout per 9. That's not exactly great.
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: Not good for him either. He's allowed too many runs recently.
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: His team has lost his last 5 starts. None of
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 2: that is good. So what do we expect out of
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: Springs here? I don't know because this is a better
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: pitching environment and he's actually good against Seattle in a
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: big sample. 84 at-bats, 179 average, 539 OPS, 21-7 strikeout
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. So can he actually come in and bounce
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: back and have a good start for once here? I
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: think he can. I mean, he's better on the road.
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: He draws a matchup that he's done well in in
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 2: the past. George Kirby is pitching for Seattle. He's had
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: some issues. I don't think he's that good, man. I
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: got some shit a couple weeks ago for saying that
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: I don't think Kirby is that good when there was
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: some stuff floating around about maybe the Red Sox are
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 2: going to trade for him. I was like, fuck that.
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 2: Kirby's not good. I think I'm being proven right, man. 4.19 ERA, whatever,
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 2: but 1.35 whip is not very good. He is good
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 2: at home, though, for the most part. 3.21 ERA, but
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: that's also the reason why I did not want him
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 2: on the Red Sox. Like, why would we want a guy?
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: He pitches well in Seattle. Pitcher from the park. Okay, cool. Well,
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: what is he going to do when he has to
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 2: pitch in Fenway all the time? Probably he's going to suck.
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 2: And in fact, yeah, that's what he did. That was
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: what he did in his last start. He pitched in Fenway.
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: He sucked. So, yeah. And I think, did we win
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: with an over in that one?
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: Maybe we did not.
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: But Kirby hasn't been that good recently. He's been way
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: too hittable. His walk rate hasn't been that good. His
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate hasn't been that good. His hit rate on
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 2: the season is alarmingly high. It's not good. Even though
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 2: I know I'm backing Lugo, I think, had a hit
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 2: rate like that. I don't know. One of the pitchers
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: I'm backing today had a hit rate like that. His
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 2: walk rate is actually not that bad on the season.
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is definitely low, but his strikeout walk
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 2: ratio is actually fine because he walks very few people. 3.6%.
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: which has gone down, though, from what he's done throughout
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 2: his career. He's definitely having a bad season here compared
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: to what he's done in the past. He's definitely gotten worse,
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 2: and his walk rate has been worse in his last
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: few starts as well. Strikeout per nine has gone way down, too, 7.5.
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 2: So he's having a bad season here, man. I don't
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: know what the deal is, and he's not very good
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 2: against the A's. They have 48 at-bats against him. 6-0
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio is good, but a 333 average, 792 OPS.
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 2: I don't like him. In this one, man, I think
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: there's an argument for the A's here in the first
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 2: five to continue Seattle's woes here. Seattle's minus 250 basically
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: in the full game. I mean, that's a ridiculous price,
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 2: especially with Kirby really kind of out of form here
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: and not being that great. Minus 250 is ridiculous. 92%
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 70% of the cash on Seattle. So the
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: money is coming in against Seattle here. The total's low
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 2: at 7.5%. I don't like that. I mean, I think
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: the over makes more sense in this one. I mean,
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 2: there's too much questionable pitching going on in this game
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: to want to play the under in this game. That's
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: what I would say, but I think I would play
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 2: the A's in the first five, though, if I was
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: going to play the Springs as the way better matchup numbers, man.
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: The only thing that I see as far as maybe
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 2: the under is that both pitchers are in the better
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: of their home road splits, but that's really all I see.
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're both not in good form here, and
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 2: Kirby has bad matchup numbers, but I think you could
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 2: get away with the A's first five as a really
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: big underdog. You might be able to get them plus
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: one run or something in the first five, and they
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: might be able to come through for you there. That's
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 2: what I think about that game. That's it, man. I
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 2: guess if you want me to look at the market
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: read for the college football that we have, so go
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: check out the college football show I did last night.
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 2: We're treading lightly in week one, but I do have
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: two underdog plays, which are Liberty plus six and a
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: half and Arkansas State plus 11.5. Those are the only
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 2: football plays that I have for the day here. I
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 2: don't know if I'm going to have any tomorrow or Monday.
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: because there is some more college football those two days.
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: But if you look at the market reads for these,
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: just real quickly before I get out of here, it
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 2: looks like the market read is very good on Arkansas State.
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 2: It's a pros versus Joes market read on that one
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 2: with the pros seemingly agreeing with me on that one.
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 2: And basically the same thing with Liberty, although the cash
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 2: percentage is slightly flipped over towards JMU, but JMU is
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 2: definitely the very public side with less of the cash
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: on them. So the market read looks good on both
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 2: of those. You might have to find a six on
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 2: the Liberty one, but there's not that much of a
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 2: difference between six and six and a half. So that's
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 2: going to do it. So the plays today are Royals'
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 2: first five. Hopefully we can get it done with that one, man.
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: Yankees-Padres under the total in the full game. Washington-Dodgers under
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: the total, full game. And football, Liberty plus the points.
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 2: Arkansas State plus the points. Go check out my college
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 2: football show from last night, and you'll see my arguments
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 2: for those games there. We don't really have great situations yet,
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 2: although the Arkansas State one is actually a sandwich spot.
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 2: It's the only sandwich spot on the board. So... Give
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 2: me the first sandwich of the year, man. That's what
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 2: I say. That's going to do it. Learn a tone
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 2: on Twitter. Learn a tone on Instagram. Like, subscribe to
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: the channel here. You'll get notified when I go live.
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 2: Clint wants me to come visit him in New York,
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: but he seems to say he doesn't want to do
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 2: bald unless I do that. I think he's joking around, though.
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 2: I don't know, but I got to get him on, man,
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 2: so we can do bald NFL preview. We'll see. And
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 2: if I don't, then I'm going to do a solo
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 2: one before the season starts on Wednesday. So be on
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: the lookout for that. We're on audio. The audio numbers
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 2: are going up, man. We're getting some good, some, I mean,
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 2: not good, but the audio numbers are increasing. I'm happy
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 2: about that. Tell everybody about it. Spotify, Apple, Spreaker, give
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 2: good reviews over there. Let's get those numbers going because
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 2: it is monetized. You do have to listen to ads
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 2: over there, but it helps me out, obviously, getting me
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: some income there, although it's a very, very small amount
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 2: unless the numbers really explode. But there's been a nice
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 2: bump recently, so Yeah, let's keep that trending. Trending in
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: the right direction, like a pitcher that you want to back.
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 2: What else do we have here? Loser cast every Tuesday night. Oh, yeah,
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 2: covered in Uke, of course, my ukulele channel on YouTube. Patreon.com
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 2: slash LearnToTote if you want to support me that way.
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 2: I apologize, I'm not very active on there. I need
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 2: to figure out more content to do for the Patreons, man.
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 2: I got to get back to the requests for the
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: Uke stuff. My voice hasn't been good enough to do
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 2: some of them, though. But you did Miley Cyrus the
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 2: other day. Yeah, I know, but... For a Queen song,
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 2: my voice, like, it can't handle it right now. So
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. We'll see. And then what else? Oh, yeah,
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 2: the New York Giants G-Spot podcast. Whether or not that's
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 2: a thing still, who knows? We will see. That's going
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 2: to do it. Thanks, everybody. Let's have a good day today. Peace.
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 4: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 1: Let somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 4: You do not have.
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 3: To lose this round alone.
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on, not tonight. Not now Hold on,
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 4: hold on Let me pull you out That bad luck
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 4: bites hard But it don't get the crown Hold on,
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 4: hold on Stay with me now.
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on. You're still here now.