Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / AFC Offseason Update
Transcript
- 0:08Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites.
- 0:11Speaker 2: The podcast part of the Action Network, probably presented by
- 0:16Speaker 2: Bett three six five. I am Chad Millman, chief Content
- 0:20Speaker 2: Officer of the Action Network. On earlier this week, we
- 0:26Speaker 2: broke down the NFC what we like about acquisition season
- 0:31Speaker 2: for NFC teams, what we don't like? Who moved ahead,
- 0:34Speaker 2: who fell behind? Who do we think will be the
- 0:38Speaker 2: teams that underperform? Who will be the teams that overperform?
- 0:44Speaker 2: Today we're doing it for the AFC. Me and my bff,
- 0:50Speaker 2: my companion, my compadre, my co host, Professional better Simon
- 0:56Speaker 2: hunter Head.
- 0:58Speaker 1: Oh so I'm in Hello Chad. How you doing, brother?
- 1:03Speaker 2: I'm good. I'm really really good. I got a great life.
- 1:06Speaker 2: And it's May. It's gorgeous. We get to talk football,
- 1:15Speaker 2: which makes me really happy, makes me really really happy.
- 1:18Speaker 2: I had a major gaff on the podcast earlier this week,
- 1:22Speaker 2: which Matt Mitchell cut out, in which we were talking
- 1:25Speaker 2: about the teams that we thought would be this year's
- 1:29Speaker 2: Seattle and of course you and our guest Nate Tice
- 1:32Speaker 2: appropriately pointed out teams that you thought might overachieve. And
- 1:37Speaker 2: then I was ready. I'm like, you guys don't know
- 1:39Speaker 2: what you're talking about. But here's a team, and then
- 1:43Speaker 2: I mentioned an AFC team, So I'm excited to talk
- 1:45Speaker 2: about that AFC team today. As a reminder, the Favorite
- 1:49Speaker 2: Podcast is proudly presented by Bet three sixty five, the
- 1:52Speaker 2: world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code action
- 1:55Speaker 2: to get BET three six y five exclusive sign up
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- 3:27Speaker 2: price gear run ted Simon. The draft was two weeks ago.
- 3:36Speaker 2: Carolina Panthers had the number one overall pick. Houston Texans
- 3:40Speaker 2: had picks number two and three. Houston Texans' win total
- 3:46Speaker 2: right now is about four and a half at bet
- 3:49Speaker 2: three six five frame. For me, is there a team
- 3:57Speaker 2: in the AFC that you would say has done themselves
- 4:04Speaker 2: the biggest service through acquisition season?
- 4:09Speaker 1: I would say no, just because like AFC to me,
- 4:11Speaker 1: is gonna be the most fun this year, just because
- 4:14Speaker 1: they have all the star power, which the star power,
- 4:16Speaker 1: the quarterbacks, they have all the big names. I mean,
- 4:19Speaker 1: every weekend we're gonna have really good matchups. It's truly
- 4:24Speaker 1: Again people say this all the time, but it's really true.
- 4:26Speaker 1: Right now, we're in a golden ajor quarterback. It's just
- 4:28Speaker 1: we lost the old guard, right the Brady's, the Breeze,
- 4:31Speaker 1: the Payton Mannings they left. There was a worry there
- 4:34Speaker 1: wouldn't be another group to step in. And it feels
- 4:37Speaker 1: like seamlessly the AFC is just fully on, full on reloaded.
- 4:41Speaker 1: I mean just to the top, the Josh Allen, the
- 4:44Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, the Mahomes, like those three, knowing that they're
- 4:48Speaker 1: probably gonna carry us.
- 4:49Speaker 2: Now chat for the execle Listen, listen, you're totally right.
- 4:53Speaker 2: Look at this uh to win the AFC title at
- 4:57Speaker 2: bet three sixty five Chiefs plus three fifty. Patrick Mahomes
- 5:01Speaker 2: Buffalo Bills plus four to fifty Josh Allen Cincinnati Bengals
- 5:05Speaker 2: plus five hundred, Joe Burrow, New York Jets plus six fifty.
- 5:11Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers Ravens eleven to one, Lamar Jackson Chargers twelve
- 5:17Speaker 2: to one, Justin Herbert Jags sixteen to one, Trevor Lawrence,
- 5:22Speaker 2: who came back from a thousand points down to beat
- 5:26Speaker 2: Justin Herbert in the playoffs last year, Bully for US
- 5:29Speaker 2: Dolphins and Tua Taga Viola by Loa Tua. Let's just
- 5:33Speaker 2: say Tua twenty to one. Then the Cleveland Browns with
- 5:37Speaker 2: Deshaun Watson, who who knows? Does he revert to form
- 5:41Speaker 2: at twenty to one? Like all of the players on
- 5:44Speaker 2: that list.
- 5:45Speaker 1: You missed one. I was gonna say, keep going, you're
- 5:46Speaker 1: about to get the team. I was gonna say it
- 5:48Speaker 1: was my biggest, biggest winner from.
- 5:49Speaker 2: This solver Broncos twenty to one. Rights they are so
- 5:52Speaker 2: by the way, look at this hold on. Patrick Mahomes
- 5:57Speaker 2: Hall of Famer, Josh Allen on the path like MVP caliber,
- 6:02Speaker 2: obviously all pro pro bow caliber.
- 6:04Speaker 1: I gotta get more awards.
- 6:05Speaker 2: Cincinnati, Joe Burrow certainly on the path to Hall of Fame.
- 6:10Speaker 2: New York Jets obviously, Lamar Jackson MVP. I think the
- 6:15Speaker 2: jury's out. How great for how long he can be?
- 6:20Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence same great second year. Not getting over excited
- 6:24Speaker 2: to questionable Deshaun Watson. He was a perennial MVP before
- 6:31Speaker 2: before the stuff that happened in Houston, and Russell Wilson
- 6:36Speaker 2: super Bowl champ like perennial winner until last year. So
- 6:42Speaker 2: that conference is stacked.
- 6:44Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it's it's absolutely wild. That's why we saw
- 6:50Speaker 1: you know, the Tennessee Titans, the Colts, Houston all trying
- 6:54Speaker 1: to move up to get a quarterback, because that's the
- 6:57Speaker 1: move now for you're the AFC. You don't want a
- 6:59Speaker 1: Ryan Tannehill. You need one of these all star guys.
- 7:02Speaker 1: You need a true game changer. So the NFC, all
- 7:06Speaker 1: those team the NFC are just so lucky. They're just
- 7:08Speaker 1: so lucky that these really really high leveled, young talented
- 7:11Speaker 1: quarterbacks on the AFC. Just because what you just went
- 7:14Speaker 1: through there, Chad. It's like, you know, we saw Brady
- 7:18Speaker 1: just have a twenty two year career. If any of
- 7:21Speaker 1: these guys, Mahomes, the Josh Allens, the you know, all
- 7:25Speaker 1: these guys, even Lamar, these guys can put together a
- 7:27Speaker 1: good ten to fifteen years, you hit a Jackbot. So
- 7:31Speaker 1: it really is a wild timer living where. You know.
- 7:34Speaker 1: Chad just mentioned Denver to me they won the offseason
- 7:36Speaker 1: by getting Sean Payton. I think going from what they
- 7:39Speaker 1: had in the head coach last year to what they
- 7:40Speaker 1: have now, it's truly incredible because if you go back
- 7:43Speaker 1: and watch Denver, they had all these opportunities, they had
- 7:45Speaker 1: all the players, all the talent, to really win games.
- 7:47Speaker 1: They just have the coaching. So to me, that's the
- 7:50Speaker 1: team that won the biggest this offseat. I just think
- 7:52Speaker 1: Sean Payton, whatever is left to Russell Wilson, he's going
- 7:55Speaker 1: to get the best out of them, and he's not
- 7:57Speaker 1: gonna lie the guy like he's not gonna let him
- 7:59Speaker 1: have his own office, their own parking space. Be the guy,
- 8:01Speaker 1: you know, high in this throne above everyone else in
- 8:03Speaker 1: Denver that's gone now right that felt like that I
- 8:06Speaker 1: rubbed off after one season. So to me, the biggest
- 8:09Speaker 1: winners right now is Denver in the division that they
- 8:11Speaker 1: just won't be talking about. Everyone's gonna be still talking
- 8:13Speaker 1: about homes, They're still gonna be talking about the Chargers.
- 8:15Speaker 1: Those are the teams that people care about where Denver.
- 8:18Speaker 1: That team is the big winner this offseason. Of they
- 8:20Speaker 1: don't lose that much talent on the defensive side of
- 8:22Speaker 1: the ball. They've approved slightly on offensive. And then they
- 8:24Speaker 1: got Chompayton, which I think is a top five, top
- 8:28Speaker 1: four coach in this league.
- 8:30Speaker 2: Six teams right now at BET three six five have
- 8:35Speaker 2: double digit season win totals. Four of them are in
- 8:38Speaker 2: the NFC. The two A I mean in the AFC,
- 8:41Speaker 2: the two NFC teams, Eagles and Niners. And by the way,
- 8:45Speaker 2: the Eagles are ten and a half and the Niners
- 8:46Speaker 2: are at eleven and a half. In the AFC, it
- 8:51Speaker 2: is do you want me to tell you or do
- 8:52Speaker 2: you think you can guess for what win totals? Yeah,
- 8:55Speaker 2: the four teams with double digit win totals, Well.
- 8:58Speaker 1: I would say, I know since I know Jags, Chiefs,
- 9:02Speaker 1: and then I don't think they should be. But I'm
- 9:04Speaker 1: guessing those are over ten and a half or ten.
- 9:06Speaker 2: Yep, those are the four. So of those four you've
- 9:11Speaker 2: already told me you're taking since the under ten and
- 9:13Speaker 2: a half. Completely agree, Jags over under ten and a half.
- 9:21Speaker 1: I need to see schedule because I got him at
- 9:24Speaker 1: ten wins, so I would say I leaned towards the
- 9:26Speaker 1: under for them, but I need to see the schedule
- 9:29Speaker 1: first before I make a pick on that. But lean under.
- 9:31Speaker 2: Bengals are at eleven and a half. By the way,
- 9:33Speaker 2: that's why you're going with the under the bill.
- 9:35Speaker 1: And what I think is the best division of football.
- 9:37Speaker 2: Yes, completely agree, And we'll get to the Cleveland Browns,
- 9:41Speaker 2: which would have been my team for the Seattle version
- 9:44Speaker 2: of the AFC of the AFC's version of Seattle, whatever
- 9:49Speaker 2: it is. Buffalo Bills at ten and a half.
- 9:53Speaker 1: Too much, man, it's just that division is good. New
- 9:56Speaker 1: England's the worst team that division. New England had a
- 9:59Speaker 1: down year last year. I really expect them to bounce
- 10:01Speaker 1: back from what they did last year. Miami. I can't
- 10:04Speaker 1: get over how good they are on paper. That's what
- 10:06Speaker 1: I hate is when a team is so good on paper,
- 10:08Speaker 1: because it's like, all right, well, they got to do
- 10:09Speaker 1: it on the field. You expect regressing them from their offense. Right,
- 10:13Speaker 1: it's another year to study that offense they ran last year.
- 10:16Speaker 1: I just don't know how it's gonna come to. Is
- 10:18Speaker 1: a really good quarterback when he's healthy and protected, to
- 10:21Speaker 1: what can make the throws when we have a weapon
- 10:23Speaker 1: like wad on Tyreek Hill. We talk all the time, Chad.
- 10:26Speaker 1: They're the kind of guys that takes one catch and
- 10:27Speaker 1: they're gone. And then the Jets, we already know the deal.
- 10:30Speaker 1: They got Aaron Rodgers, so I could see. I could
- 10:33Speaker 1: see them starting slow by the end of the year.
- 10:35Speaker 1: I think they'll be a really tough test for the
- 10:37Speaker 1: Bills team. So Bills, I still think They're a really
- 10:39Speaker 1: good teams. Still see them at being, you know, one
- 10:41Speaker 1: of the teams that make to playoffs. There's a reason
- 10:44Speaker 1: they're ten and a half. I think last year they
- 10:45Speaker 1: closed at twelve and a lot of books. It's just
- 10:48Speaker 1: different this year. They have a way better division. So
- 10:51Speaker 1: still expect the Bills to win that division. I sti't
- 10:54Speaker 1: think it's gonna be as easy it's been these last
- 10:55Speaker 1: what two three years for them?
- 10:57Speaker 2: Kansas City eleven and a half.
- 11:01Speaker 1: You know what I want to do here, but I
- 11:03Speaker 1: can't do it. Of course, I want to take the under.
- 11:05Speaker 2: All got to take the under.
- 11:07Speaker 1: Can't do it. I can't. Mahomes has been good to me.
- 11:10Speaker 1: I always take his over, and he dislocated his kneecap
- 11:13Speaker 1: and he came back and still got his over win
- 11:15Speaker 1: totals for me and then won a Super Bowl. So
- 11:17Speaker 1: I can't do it. Yet. There's just certain guys. It's
- 11:19Speaker 1: like Brady effect, where if Brady won a Super Bowl,
- 11:21Speaker 1: I would fade him. Usually I stopped doing that when
- 11:24Speaker 1: he kept winning his governor his win totals. After he
- 11:26Speaker 1: won the super Bowl. It's just didn't matter. He was
- 11:27Speaker 1: just a machine. I feel the same way about Mahomes.
- 11:30Speaker 1: Mahomes is a machine. It's like his brother's about to
- 11:32Speaker 1: go to jail. He doesn't seem too worried about it.
- 11:35Speaker 1: He was at three different parties this past week. I
- 11:37Speaker 1: saw him an F one some at the net Gala,
- 11:39Speaker 1: Like he's all over the place. He's just a cool dude.
- 11:42Speaker 1: He's just not worried about anything. So I can't go
- 11:44Speaker 1: against Mahomes. I love that.
- 11:46Speaker 2: Mattris max Patrick Madams on the red carpet at the
- 11:51Speaker 2: derby and said, hey, you cost me a lot of money,
- 11:53Speaker 2: and Mahomes was like, you're just better off back at me.
- 11:56Speaker 1: Yeah, it's the damn truth.
- 11:58Speaker 2: The thing about betting the under on the on the
- 12:00Speaker 2: Chiefs says, did you see the Chiefs losing six games
- 12:05Speaker 2: in a season?
- 12:06Speaker 1: Right?
- 12:07Speaker 2: Yeah?
- 12:07Speaker 1: Because they got lucky as shit last year. I mean, if
- 12:09Speaker 1: you go through their wins last year, they were just
- 12:12Speaker 1: like the Giants. They had all these coin flip games
- 12:14Speaker 1: they won, but instead of being the Giants, the Giants
- 12:16Speaker 1: were getting lucky. It was the Mahomes effect. I mean
- 12:18Speaker 1: the playoffs, she had you know better than me. Every
- 12:20Speaker 1: game they had they won by one possession. They beat
- 12:22Speaker 1: the Jaguars by a touchdown. They beat the Bengals by
- 12:25Speaker 1: a field goal. They beat the Eagles by a field goal.
- 12:27Speaker 1: It's just you can't teach what Mahomes does, which is
- 12:31Speaker 1: like the pressure is the highest, he doesn't flinch. I mean,
- 12:34Speaker 1: fucking hey man, Mitchell knows worse than everyone else that
- 12:37Speaker 1: thirteen seconds is truly a legacy thing of They kicked
- 12:40Speaker 1: the ball to Mahomes. He had thirteen seconds to get
- 12:42Speaker 1: down the field of kick a field goal, and he
- 12:43Speaker 1: somehow did it. He's just I expect a ton of
- 12:46Speaker 1: regression for the Chiefs. It was incredible how many things
- 12:49Speaker 1: broke their way last year. But my computer can't compute Mahomes.
- 12:53Speaker 1: It's the same thing with Brady. My computer never compute
- 12:55Speaker 1: how special Brady was. The same thing with Mahomes. It's like,
- 12:58Speaker 1: I look at the math, I have them at eleven wins,
- 13:01Speaker 1: but once we gin of the season, I'll be like,
- 13:03Speaker 1: why did I bet this under It's just it's Patrick Mahomes.
- 13:06Speaker 1: The guy does not take years off. There's just other
- 13:09Speaker 1: bets I'd rather make than taking their underchat.
- 13:12Speaker 2: I think at some point, you talk about a team
- 13:14Speaker 2: like the Giants, you talk about a team like the
- 13:16Speaker 2: Vikings who won a lot of one score games last year,
- 13:20Speaker 2: and you expect there to be a regression. I don't
- 13:23Speaker 2: expect that with the Chiefs because of Mahomes. I think
- 13:27Speaker 2: there is a huge difference between what the Giants did
- 13:32Speaker 2: with elevated coaching and still developing players and what the
- 13:37Speaker 2: Chiefs do with Patrick Mahomes, who has done everything that
- 13:40Speaker 2: you've just described. That is something to bet on, right,
- 13:45Speaker 2: even if they are winning one score games, because you
- 13:48Speaker 2: expect them to win one score games like you expect
- 13:51Speaker 2: those games to go their way. So it doesn't concern
- 13:54Speaker 2: me betting the over now that I think that.
- 13:57Speaker 1: I would say this last year was a very boring, straightforwardear,
- 14:00Speaker 1: which I loved because I was on it, Like I
- 14:01Speaker 1: was all over the Chiefs and the Eagles to both
- 14:03Speaker 1: be the one seeds and they both walked through the
- 14:05Speaker 1: playoffs and they both covered all throughout the playoffs or
- 14:08Speaker 1: the Chiefs didn't gainst the Jaguars, but they covered the
- 14:10Speaker 1: other two games where the year before we had the
- 14:12Speaker 1: Bengals of the Rams, both of them were the four seeds.
- 14:14Speaker 1: Like that's football, right, Chad, Like that's usually how it goes,
- 14:17Speaker 1: where the best team usually does not make it right.
- 14:19Speaker 1: That's just how it is. And this is why we
- 14:21Speaker 1: love betting it too, because we like betting these ugly
- 14:24Speaker 1: dogs and that's kind of beneficial to us. It feels
- 14:27Speaker 1: this year it's the same thing. Like I hate to
- 14:30Speaker 1: say it, but it's kind of boring, like the Eagles
- 14:32Speaker 1: to me, of the best team in the NFC, the
- 14:35Speaker 1: Chiefs are still the best tea in the AFC. It's
- 14:36Speaker 1: just I think Joe Burrow is right there. I get
- 14:39Speaker 1: why he is in most people's eyes a number two quarterback.
- 14:42Speaker 1: Or him or Josh Allen. You could foot flop them,
- 14:43Speaker 1: but I think we all can agree it's still at
- 14:45Speaker 1: the end of the day, it just feels like it's
- 14:47Speaker 1: the Chiefs since the Eagles, which crazy as it sounds.
- 14:50Speaker 1: People last year when I was telling you to bet
- 14:52Speaker 1: them both to be the one seed, people didn't believe it.
- 14:54Speaker 1: Last year, Like the Chiefs I think had the third
- 14:56Speaker 1: best odds for the Super Bowl or fourth best odds
- 14:59Speaker 1: and the Eagles were thirty out to one. So we
- 15:01Speaker 1: could look like idiots come this time next year. But
- 15:03Speaker 1: I still think head into the season, I'm most likely
- 15:06Speaker 1: end up with the Chiefs my number one seed for
- 15:07Speaker 1: THEFC and the Egos being a number one seed the NFC.
- 15:09Speaker 1: It's just neither of these teams got much weaker. The
- 15:11Speaker 1: biggest blemish for this Chiefs team is they lost to
- 15:14Speaker 1: row Cee. And yeah, you can say, well it's Andy
- 15:17Speaker 1: Reid's offense. Iney would tell you injury put a lot
- 15:20Speaker 1: on his plate and now it's back to kind of
- 15:24Speaker 1: Andy Reid's offense to run. So to me, that's the
- 15:27Speaker 1: only real hiccup I see for this Chiefs team is
- 15:29Speaker 1: you know, they didn't lose anything on offense, they didn't
- 15:31Speaker 1: really lose much on defense. We expect them to be
- 15:33Speaker 1: back to where they were last year, which is a
- 15:35Speaker 1: team whether if it's one possession game, you're gonna bett
- 15:37Speaker 1: on my homes. You've just been in this moment. He
- 15:39Speaker 1: just lives for these kind of games. So it sucks,
- 15:43Speaker 1: but it's true they're still the best team in the AFC.
- 15:46Speaker 1: I just still think since he's looking up at them
- 15:48Speaker 1: saying with the Bills.
- 15:49Speaker 2: So the question I have, which I think is more
- 15:51Speaker 2: interesting than we think, is what team helped themselves the most.
- 15:56Speaker 2: You've hinted at Denver, Denver Broncos, give us a little
- 16:03Speaker 2: more detail. I have some very specific thoughts that I
- 16:05Speaker 2: will follow up with about other teams.
- 16:08Speaker 1: I would say Denver for sure, but I would say
- 16:10Speaker 1: the most a team that me and you both love
- 16:12Speaker 1: from last year as the Jaguars. I think they're a
- 16:14Speaker 1: team that coming to this year. I love the fact
- 16:17Speaker 1: that they played in a playoff game last year they
- 16:18Speaker 1: won it, right, and now you have a whole offseason
- 16:21Speaker 1: of a team building confidence off of that. Right, that's
- 16:23Speaker 1: what you love to see. Where the Eagles, they played
- 16:26Speaker 1: Tampa the year before and they got smoked by Brady
- 16:29Speaker 1: Hurts talk about how that was a huge motivation Tim
- 16:31Speaker 1: he saw what he needed to do to take it
- 16:33Speaker 1: to the next level. Right, The playoffs are just different.
- 16:35Speaker 1: We hear people talk all the time about that. I
- 16:37Speaker 1: think the Jaguars are a team like that, where they
- 16:39Speaker 1: know they're in a division that's weak. Right, they know
- 16:41Speaker 1: the Colts are kind of on a down year. The
- 16:43Speaker 1: Titans Weeks act being down here Houston is just a
- 16:46Speaker 1: train wreck. So to me, the Jaguars, as much as
- 16:49Speaker 1: I love to take their under, they should be far
- 16:51Speaker 1: better they were last year. They have another year in
- 16:53Speaker 1: that offense, all the guys getting comfortable with Trevor Lawrence
- 16:55Speaker 1: and now you're bringing to Calvin Ridley. So to me,
- 16:58Speaker 1: the Jaguars are going to be a really big public
- 17:00Speaker 1: Darland this year. I love this Jaguars team. They're kind
- 17:03Speaker 1: of a sleeper team for me to be the one
- 17:05Speaker 1: seed just because of that division they're in and the
- 17:08Speaker 1: expectations I have for this team. Now, I just think
- 17:10Speaker 1: they had the confidence. Their biggest weakness last year, I
- 17:13Speaker 1: think chacking agreat this is they didn't know how to
- 17:15Speaker 1: close games out right. They started the year out with
- 17:17Speaker 1: a lot of sloppy losses. Games they had big leads
- 17:20Speaker 1: and they just could not keep the foot on the gas.
- 17:22Speaker 1: I don't really see that in this company season. I
- 17:24Speaker 1: really see them building off last year. So for most
- 17:26Speaker 1: one offseason, I think it's gonna be For me, it
- 17:28Speaker 1: will be the Jaguars.
- 17:30Speaker 2: There's a couple teams that I think are really interesting.
- 17:33Speaker 2: As soon as the Jets officially signed Aaron Rodgers, our
- 17:36Speaker 2: first instinct fade the Jets. They're nine and a half
- 17:42Speaker 2: wins right now at bet three to six five. I
- 17:46Speaker 2: don't think Aaron Rodgers turns them into a super Bowl team,
- 17:49Speaker 2: So they are not on my list. In fact, I
- 17:53Speaker 2: think it's very possible. Last year, everyone thinks they're a
- 17:57Speaker 2: player away because of last year. They played really bad
- 18:01Speaker 2: teams last year and really bad quarterbacks. So it's very
- 18:06Speaker 2: possible that, as we talked about earlier in the week,
- 18:09Speaker 2: like the teams that we think will look good but
- 18:13Speaker 2: lose a lot of games, it's possible the Jets are
- 18:16Speaker 2: that team. Two teams in the AFC North that I think,
- 18:20Speaker 2: through draft and free agency combination of both got much
- 18:25Speaker 2: much better and helped themselves a lot Pittsburgh Steelers, who
- 18:30Speaker 2: I think had an amazing draft and a serviceable free
- 18:35Speaker 2: agent acquisition season, and the Ravens, who upgraded it every
- 18:42Speaker 2: level offensively. So how are we not talking about the Ravens?
- 18:46Speaker 2: Is it because there are conferences their division is so good?
- 18:50Speaker 1: No? And I hate some of the Ravens, But it's
- 18:52Speaker 1: kind of the same thing as I feel with Dak where
- 18:54Speaker 1: I do a little more. Lamar is one and three
- 18:56Speaker 1: in the playoffs, and it's because he can do all
- 18:59Speaker 1: of his unique stuff against these bad defenses during the
- 19:02Speaker 1: regular season, but when you get to the playoffs and
- 19:04Speaker 1: these good defenses and the good defensive cordinators can figure
- 19:07Speaker 1: out your offense and shut it down. Lamar has never
- 19:10Speaker 1: been to overcome that. So you know they have a
- 19:12Speaker 1: new OC now for the Ravens, maybe that'll help them.
- 19:16Speaker 1: But to me, the Ravens Chad. That's why I usually
- 19:19Speaker 1: I'd be all over them because to me, they have
- 19:21Speaker 1: an incredible defense. Their offense obviously can be better than
- 19:23Speaker 1: was last year. They should be better. I just don't
- 19:25Speaker 1: have faith in Lamar, the same thing as Dak. It's
- 19:27Speaker 1: just you will never catch me placing future bets on
- 19:30Speaker 1: the Cowboys who win a Super Bowl ever. Again, same
- 19:33Speaker 1: with the Ravens. I just I can't do it. I
- 19:35Speaker 1: just don't buy into it where any guy that can
- 19:38Speaker 1: be turned into one dimension can't win a Super Bowl.
- 19:41Speaker 1: And we saw last year with Hurts. Hurts was a
- 19:44Speaker 1: running quarterback. We saw him work on his pass and
- 19:47Speaker 1: what happened to the playoffs teams? They literally basically made
- 19:51Speaker 1: a front wall against Hurts. He said, you have to
- 19:53Speaker 1: pass the ball to beat us. He did that in
- 19:55Speaker 1: every playoff game. I mean hed the Super Bowl. I
- 19:57Speaker 1: think he threw four with three hundred yards against the
- 19:59Speaker 1: Chiefs team that they literally just made a wall five defenders.
- 20:02Speaker 1: They said, you can't run it against us. You've got
- 20:04Speaker 1: to pass and move the ball down the field, and
- 20:05Speaker 1: that's what he did in that game. So I love Lamar,
- 20:10Speaker 1: love everything about what the Ravens have done this offseason chat.
- 20:12Speaker 1: I just I cannot put money on their future just
- 20:15Speaker 1: because his playoff record. He's just a guy that seems
- 20:17Speaker 1: like he gets tight in these big moments. Again one
- 20:20Speaker 1: and three in the playoffs. It's not gonna get any
- 20:21Speaker 1: easier when he mixed playoffs. He's going to go against
- 20:24Speaker 1: the Josh Allen, He's going to go against the Mahomes.
- 20:26Speaker 1: That's just too much for me to put on the
- 20:28Speaker 1: guy that I just don't think he can overcome those
- 20:30Speaker 1: kind of quarterbacks.
- 20:31Speaker 2: Yeah, that's an interesting way to look at it. I
- 20:33Speaker 2: was thinking more about how did they help themselves to
- 20:38Speaker 2: improve their situation throughout the entire season, not necessarily just
- 20:42Speaker 2: in the playoffs. But yeah, like at this point, he's
- 20:45Speaker 2: been in the playoffs enough and underperformed enough that you're
- 20:51Speaker 2: getting a pretty good indication of who he is when
- 20:54Speaker 2: it comes to the playoffs. And you see that a lot, right,
- 20:57Speaker 2: like Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, even Trevor Lawrence last year,
- 21:01Speaker 2: like these guys have been in tough spots in the
- 21:04Speaker 2: playoffs and achieved mightily. I'm trying to think. Was Peyton
- 21:10Speaker 2: Manning really bad in the playoffs when he started his career.
- 21:14Speaker 1: Yeah, he was terrible, But again I put that on
- 21:16Speaker 1: the whole New England effect, right, he just every time
- 21:19Speaker 1: you ran into Belichick, didn't matter of Frose, indoors, outdoors.
- 21:22Speaker 1: Belichick always had the game plan to shut him down.
- 21:25Speaker 1: It took what that fourth and two against with the
- 21:27Speaker 1: Wells Walker play that, yeah, whipped that whole trajectory. So teams,
- 21:32Speaker 1: I agree with that point that you just made their chat. Eventually, Sure,
- 21:35Speaker 1: lamark a break out of it. It's just I don't
- 21:38Speaker 1: want to be wasting my money waiting for him to
- 21:39Speaker 1: do it. Right. I'll catch up to when he gets there.
- 21:42Speaker 1: I can't keep chasing where me and you were all
- 21:44Speaker 1: over the Ravens actually we love them at twenty one
- 21:47Speaker 1: twenty two to one for the Super Bowl, and he
- 21:49Speaker 1: bit us in the ass with it. So I just
- 21:51Speaker 1: can't do it again this year.
- 21:54Speaker 2: The Ravens right now, by the way, are eleven to
- 21:57Speaker 2: one to win the AFC. At bet three six five,
- 22:03Speaker 2: they are twenty to one to win the Super Bowl.
- 22:05Speaker 2: I feel like the Ravens. It's almost like bookmakers tease.
- 22:11Speaker 2: I would say betters who live in the middle end
- 22:14Speaker 2: and the deep end of the pool. They know a
- 22:17Speaker 2: lot about betting, they know a lot about the NFL,
- 22:20Speaker 2: they know a lot about value, and so they always
- 22:24Speaker 2: put the Ravens in that twenty to one range, maybe
- 22:28Speaker 2: a little bit eighteen, maybe a little bit twenty two,
- 22:31Speaker 2: knowing that everyone who thinks they know about betting and
- 22:33Speaker 2: football will bet the Ravens in that way.
- 22:35Speaker 1: There.
- 22:36Speaker 2: It's right because think because you think there's value there,
- 22:39Speaker 2: but they know what you know. Yeah, so there's no
- 22:43Speaker 2: value there. So it's like a little bit of a
- 22:45Speaker 2: just to save his account for the bookmakers.
- 22:48Speaker 1: True, you know what I mean.
- 22:49Speaker 2: I think I just figured it out. I finally figured
- 22:52Speaker 2: it out for the Ravens and we're getting played for fools.
- 22:55Speaker 2: I think you're right. I didn't bet them this year
- 22:57Speaker 2: at twenty to one yet because and I feel better
- 23:01Speaker 2: about it. Yeah.
- 23:02Speaker 1: No, I hate it because I've been staring at it
- 23:04Speaker 1: ever since they started signing these guys. I'm just like, Okay,
- 23:07Speaker 1: they're good, Like we know they got the defense. I
- 23:09Speaker 1: think missed the last year is the offense. I pull
- 23:10Speaker 1: myself back. I'm like, this is what they want you
- 23:12Speaker 1: to think. As you said here in Ma Simon, don't
- 23:14Speaker 1: do it, and I'm like you, ty I. Luckily I
- 23:16Speaker 1: have not fired away on the Ravens yet.
- 23:18Speaker 2: Who do we think? Uh? Like the team that has
- 23:24Speaker 2: declined the most this offseason compared to the rest of
- 23:28Speaker 2: the conference.
- 23:30Speaker 1: And that's really tough with the AFC. I mean, like,
- 23:35Speaker 1: to me, a team that I just have zero faith
- 23:37Speaker 1: and I'm over there under is the Las Vegas Like
- 23:40Speaker 1: people are somebody for some reason liking them. They think
- 23:43Speaker 1: Jimmy g is gonna come in there, He's gonna be
- 23:45Speaker 1: better than Derek Carr was last year. I just don't
- 23:48Speaker 1: see it, you know, Grooden Maydock. They've ruined that team.
- 23:51Speaker 1: They wasted so many drafts and we've seen it time time,
- 23:53Speaker 1: and you have to build through a draft. You just
- 23:56Speaker 1: have to, because especially a team like them, as a
- 23:58Speaker 1: stupid owner like the owners on stupid things, it's not
- 24:02Speaker 1: gonna help that team where they they have so many holes.
- 24:05Speaker 1: So to me, Vegas seven and a half win total
- 24:07Speaker 1: eight at some books. I love that under I just
- 24:10Speaker 1: they're a team. I see a heavy rogressing, especially in
- 24:12Speaker 1: a division that I just told you I think Denver's
- 24:15Speaker 1: gonna be improved. Even Chargers stayed the same with the Chiefs.
- 24:19Speaker 1: I just think that's too much for them in that
- 24:20Speaker 1: division with Las Vegas. So I get it, you know,
- 24:23Speaker 1: Jimmy g that's funny, exciting. It's a different quarterback for them.
- 24:26Speaker 1: It just does nothing like him and Derek Carr. They're interchangeable, right,
- 24:29Speaker 1: I think Derek car slightly better. I just don't have
- 24:32Speaker 1: any faith in Jimmy G. So the fact that they're
- 24:34Speaker 1: such a high wind total, I think it's just because
- 24:36Speaker 1: they're in Las Vegas. They were in say Seattle or
- 24:40Speaker 1: somewhere random different. I think it'd be six and a half.
- 24:43Speaker 1: But we're getting a free extra game bumped up here
- 24:46Speaker 1: just because they're in Vegas. So I love that under
- 24:48Speaker 1: for them.
- 24:48Speaker 2: Unlike the NFC, which I think is obviously more wide open,
- 24:51Speaker 2: I think in the AFC, if you didn't markedly improve,
- 24:57Speaker 2: if you stayed the same, then you automatically declined because
- 25:02Speaker 2: the competition is so much better. Like the middle tier
- 25:06Speaker 2: teams that we're talking about, the Ravens, the Steelers, I
- 25:12Speaker 2: think the Brown Jets, the Broncos, the Jets, Miami like
- 25:19Speaker 2: either through moves they had previously made or recent moves,
- 25:24Speaker 2: or getting players back because they weren't at full capacity,
- 25:28Speaker 2: they they've automatically improved. And then teams like, to me,
- 25:36Speaker 2: when I look at this question, I automatically think about
- 25:40Speaker 2: the Titans, like, this is a team in pure limbo.
- 25:47Speaker 2: They've got an aging running back now who they talked
- 25:51Speaker 2: about the rumors that they might want to get rid
- 25:54Speaker 2: of this offseason. They've got an aging quarterback who they've
- 25:57Speaker 2: now tried to replace for two straight years that he's
- 26:00Speaker 2: calling deja vu, and their defense has been inconsistent. I
- 26:07Speaker 2: love Mike Rabel as a coach. I think he's so good,
- 26:12Speaker 2: But who are their receivers? Who are their weapons? Like,
- 26:16Speaker 2: you know, Chris Moore, that's what you're excited about Nick Westbrook, Aquina,
- 26:21Speaker 2: that's what you're excited about resigning him to a one
- 26:24Speaker 2: year deal. Like you didn't make the move in the
- 26:27Speaker 2: draft to go get a big name quarterback. You ended
- 26:29Speaker 2: up with Will Levis, who there's a lot of, you know,
- 26:33Speaker 2: questions about this team took a step back by not
- 26:37Speaker 2: taking a step forward.
- 26:40Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean they could somehow get to their win
- 26:42Speaker 1: to little just because they're played in such a weak division.
- 26:44Speaker 1: But I think Chaddy nailed it there. It's just they've
- 26:47Speaker 1: gotten progressively worse at every position just because they've gotten
- 26:49Speaker 1: older and they haven't replaced a lot of guys they've
- 26:51Speaker 1: let go. Right. So to me, Rabral is the only
- 26:55Speaker 1: reason we even pause on this. It's like, this guy
- 26:57Speaker 1: is such a good coach. Even last year. I mean,
- 27:00Speaker 1: think about how they started the season. They got blown
- 27:01Speaker 1: out by the Bills, and I think they got destroyed
- 27:04Speaker 1: by the Rams. Whoever it was. Rabel got them back
- 27:08Speaker 1: to five hundred, and then all of a sudden they
- 27:09Speaker 1: were leaving that division. You thought they're going away with it.
- 27:11Speaker 1: I think completely fell apart at the end of the season.
- 27:13Speaker 1: I think last year was kind of their last gasp, right,
- 27:16Speaker 1: that was our last run with that group. I'm totally
- 27:19Speaker 1: on board with Chad's saying, and again people saying I'm
- 27:22Speaker 1: making shit up what came out this week. Dannehill was
- 27:25Speaker 1: getting shopped around all offseason and at the draft by
- 27:28Speaker 1: multiple reports. We know this, we know they're trying to
- 27:31Speaker 1: move on from the guys. So to me, who knows
- 27:35Speaker 1: what's gonna happen in training camp. But that's the first
- 27:37Speaker 1: person I think of where someone goes down with a
- 27:40Speaker 1: knee injury. Right, there's always those quarterbacks are all right
- 27:43Speaker 1: being ready to be shocked. The Sam Bradford, we call it, right,
- 27:45Speaker 1: You're waiting for a team to get hurt and then
- 27:47Speaker 1: you trade the Sam Bradford the last minute to bring
- 27:49Speaker 1: in the next guy. That's how I feel about Tannehill.
- 27:52Speaker 1: He's just waiting for someone to get hurt and someone
- 27:54Speaker 1: will trade for him. So I think he nailed a
- 27:56Speaker 1: chad where the middle class of the AFC has just
- 27:59Speaker 1: gone so much better, like the Miami, the Jets, all
- 28:02Speaker 1: of them pushing these teams up. It's just again, we're
- 28:06Speaker 1: in the golden age of We're in the golden age
- 28:07Speaker 1: of quarterback. I've just never seen a conference so stacked
- 28:11Speaker 1: as the AFC is. This upcoming season, which me and
- 28:13Speaker 1: Chi are gonna talk about, it makes me loves the
- 28:15Speaker 1: NFC even more, where it's like everyone's gonna talking about
- 28:17Speaker 1: the AFC all season. We'll get better odds on these
- 28:20Speaker 1: NFC teams. No one's really gonna be talking about the
- 28:23Speaker 1: Eagles of forty nine ers. All these different teams in
- 28:25Speaker 1: the middle of the season, it's just gonna be all
- 28:26Speaker 1: about the AFC. So to me, that's where the value
- 28:28Speaker 1: is gonna be this upcoming season.
- 28:32Speaker 2: We gotta talk about Cleveland. We gotta talk about Deshaun Watson. Yeah,
- 28:38Speaker 2: how do we judge what happens next? Are we oracles
- 28:44Speaker 2: and we see him playing brilliantly? Are we thinking that
- 28:50Speaker 2: he's lost it and he'll never get back to where
- 28:54Speaker 2: he was, Because that's where the value is, and there's
- 28:57Speaker 2: nothing to tell us right or wrong other than belief
- 29:05Speaker 2: or am I missing something?
- 29:07Speaker 1: Well, the funniest thing is talking to like a lot
- 29:09Speaker 1: of pros, especially old school pros, where they just think
- 29:12Speaker 1: of all the franchises through all the years. They think
- 29:16Speaker 1: the Browns have some of the worst karma and just
- 29:18Speaker 1: everything around them is just terrible. Right. They literally we
- 29:21Speaker 1: had what was it four years and then analytically tanking
- 29:24Speaker 1: passing on all these quarterbacks. They finally take Baker with
- 29:26Speaker 1: a number one pick. This kid has arguably one of
- 29:29Speaker 1: the best rookie season we've ever seen. Following year, takes
- 29:32Speaker 1: them to the playoffs, gets them a playoff win. Shit,
- 29:35Speaker 1: they were a Chad Henny pass away. Yeah, from make
- 29:38Speaker 1: it to an AFC championship game. So it's just they
- 29:41Speaker 1: were this close and then they fallen all the way
- 29:44Speaker 1: back down. They've gotten rid of Baker. They brought in
- 29:46Speaker 1: a new quarterback that has arguably the most baggage we've
- 29:49Speaker 1: ever seen for a quarterback. Whatever's going on his head
- 29:52Speaker 1: isn't right. We saw it last year. He just did
- 29:54Speaker 1: not seem like the old Deshaun Watson. He seems different.
- 29:56Speaker 1: And you know, I've read some really smart Browns beat
- 29:59Speaker 1: reporters who are they're the most locked in people for
- 30:02Speaker 1: that franchise. They say that everything at the end of
- 30:03Speaker 1: the season was then working on this upcoming season. They
- 30:06Speaker 1: have purposely apparently put Watson in uncontrapositions, right, they wanted
- 30:10Speaker 1: to put him in bad spots to learn the offense
- 30:12Speaker 1: and blah blah blah. That made no sense to me, Like,
- 30:15Speaker 1: I get what they're trying to say that it's a
- 30:16Speaker 1: spin zone. They're like, well, they're putting them in these
- 30:19Speaker 1: hard spots so the next year it's easier for him
- 30:20Speaker 1: to do this offense. Why wouln't you want to get
- 30:23Speaker 1: Sehn Watson's confidence back? The guy had done not played
- 30:25Speaker 1: a football game in over two years. The whole story
- 30:28Speaker 1: is just weird to meet, Chad. So coming to the season,
- 30:30Speaker 1: I wanted to be all over this Browns team, but
- 30:32Speaker 1: you nailed it off the top. I just think this
- 30:34Speaker 1: division is so damn good, Like the Browns have gotten better,
- 30:37Speaker 1: the Ravens have gotten better, Pittsburgh has gotten better, and
- 30:40Speaker 1: to me, this is it for Cincy. This is the
- 30:42Speaker 1: since He's really last great year because they still got
- 30:45Speaker 1: t Higgins under that cheap deal. They still got Boyd
- 30:47Speaker 1: to receiver, and they still got Chase like that to
- 30:50Speaker 1: me is the best receiving corps with a top five quarterback.
- 30:54Speaker 1: We all expect Sincey to be the top there. But
- 30:57Speaker 1: me and Chad talked about it last year. The Ravens
- 30:58Speaker 1: should have won this division. We know that there is
- 31:00Speaker 1: opportunity to steal this division because they just beat up
- 31:03Speaker 1: on each other. So to me, I wanted to believe
- 31:06Speaker 1: the Browns, Chad, but this division, I rather believe in
- 31:09Speaker 1: Pittsburgh or the Ravens like you talked about then, I
- 31:11Speaker 1: rather believe in the Browns. So I made one future
- 31:15Speaker 1: bet on the Browns. I won't be betting anymore. Like
- 31:18Speaker 1: I'll take them at whatever, I got it at forty
- 31:19Speaker 1: to one. That's it. Like usually, I'll keep doubling up
- 31:22Speaker 1: anymore in futures the Browns, I'm not doing it. I'm
- 31:24Speaker 1: gonna wait and see what Watson is because right now
- 31:27Speaker 1: he look broken to me. So we see big jumps
- 31:29Speaker 1: this year. I'll be back in on the brown team.
- 31:31Speaker 1: But as you said here today, Chad, no, I will
- 31:34Speaker 1: not put another penny on this Browns team.
- 31:36Speaker 2: The Ravens should have won the division. The Ravens should
- 31:40Speaker 2: have won the playoff game.
- 31:43Speaker 1: Yeah, I still I have not them that ball at the.
- 31:47Speaker 2: One before we get out of here. Any long shot
- 31:51Speaker 2: for MVP in the AFC, let me give you hold on,
- 31:56Speaker 2: let me give you some Let me give you some
- 31:59Speaker 2: bet three six five odds for the UH we got
- 32:03Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes at six to one, Joe Burrow six and
- 32:06Speaker 2: a half to one, Josh Allen eight to one. By
- 32:08Speaker 2: the way, Justin Herbert ten to one. Pretty good indication
- 32:11Speaker 2: of where the quality is for players. Jalen Hurts twelfth
- 32:15Speaker 2: to one. Then Lamar Aaron Rodgers to Trevor so of
- 32:20Speaker 2: the first one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten,
- 32:26Speaker 2: ten players listed. One AFC player NFC one NFC player,
- 32:33Speaker 2: And I also don't.
- 32:34Speaker 1: Hate those odds. Were hurts just because in that division
- 32:37Speaker 1: in the NFC, especially the conference, I think he's going
- 32:40Speaker 1: to stand above. But I honestly like the Trevor Lawrence odds.
- 32:43Speaker 1: They've come down a little bit. I still think you're
- 32:45Speaker 1: getting good value there where I could see him put
- 32:47Speaker 1: up the stats. He's just he's in a really weak division.
- 32:50Speaker 1: I just think he has all the confidence in the world.
- 32:52Speaker 1: Everything I've seen, I just love the trajector of the
- 32:55Speaker 1: Jaguars team. So for me, if I had to pick
- 32:57Speaker 1: two right now, I do hurt. So I do Trevor Lawrence.
- 33:00Speaker 2: Peblue One's twenty to one. Jalen Hurts twelve to one.
- 33:04Speaker 2: I'm gonna say right now, I think it's worth putting
- 33:10Speaker 2: a little touch, just a little, a little, tiny little
- 33:14Speaker 2: touch justin fields twenty five to one.
- 33:19Speaker 1: Don't hate it. Yeah, I mean, I know people are
- 33:23Speaker 1: gonna get sick about me, and chat are going to
- 33:25Speaker 1: be talking about the Bears a lot. They just I
- 33:28Speaker 1: can't wait to see the schedule release because that's you know,
- 33:30Speaker 1: that's my favorite thing that happens. But to me, the Bears,
- 33:34Speaker 1: they're just in a prime position to have an incredible season.
- 33:37Speaker 2: Gonna be sick of it. Guy, I like, I'm already
- 33:41Speaker 2: getting comments on Twitter. We get it, you're a Bears fan.
- 33:45Speaker 2: Let's stop talking about the Bears. Look, I haven't talked
- 33:48Speaker 2: about the Bears on any version of this podcast since
- 33:52Speaker 2: I started at ESPN in two thousand and eight. Okay,
- 33:56Speaker 2: I can't help it if all of a sudden, they're
- 33:58Speaker 2: one of the teams that most people are talking about.
- 34:01Speaker 2: If you listened to the podcast on Monday. Earlier in
- 34:03Speaker 2: the week, Nate Tice, our guest, and Simon, when we
- 34:06Speaker 2: asked the question who's the team that helped themselves the
- 34:08Speaker 2: most in the NFC, they boasted the Bears. I didn't
- 34:11Speaker 2: say it. I said the Eagles.
- 34:13Speaker 1: If people want a true story, here Chad a true story.
- 34:16Speaker 1: To end it real quick. Yeah, this is how I
- 34:18Speaker 1: found Chad. My good friend, Chad Moleman, a good lifelong friend.
- 34:22Speaker 1: Now this is true a professional. Better send me a
- 34:26Speaker 1: clip of Chad taking the Bears at home as a
- 34:29Speaker 1: six point favorite over the Eagles in the divisional playoff game,
- 34:32Speaker 1: and I was like, I see the guy is that
- 34:34Speaker 1: reeal and goes I swear to God, this guy is
- 34:36Speaker 1: taking an unexperienced Mitch Trubisky against the defending Super Bowl
- 34:40Speaker 1: champion Eagles as a six point home favorite. So I
- 34:44Speaker 1: reach out to Chat. I said, never again in the
- 34:46Speaker 1: rest of your life people make that mistake of taking
- 34:49Speaker 1: a home favorite who's never played in a playoff game before.
- 34:51Speaker 1: So don't let Chad fully he's all in on the
- 34:54Speaker 1: Bears and they're good, but we'll be smart here. We're
- 34:57Speaker 1: not going to blindly bet the Bears. Don't worry people.
- 35:00Speaker 2: Double doink all right? This has been the Favorite podcast
- 35:05Speaker 2: probably presented by Bet three sixty five. We are part
- 35:10Speaker 2: of the Action Network. Download us from Apple, podcasts from
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- 35:44Speaker 2: Chad Melman. He is Simon Hunter. Our producer on the
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