Latest / Toadstool Sports / 2026 Preakness BEST BETS | I'm Still an Amateur

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2026 Preakness BEST BETS | I'm Still an Amateur · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm man, a hole in
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: your chase, black coffee.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: On the felt man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: Now you stare at the chips.
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: Like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Your name steal mean something on somebody for show? Put
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me?
• 0:46
  Speaker 4: No, hold on, hold on, nothing nice now, hold on, hold.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: On and me but it don't get the crown. Hold on,
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: hold on and stay with me.
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: Now, what's up, everybody? It's towed back with you with
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: Toadstool Sports. This is gonna be the Preakness edition. I
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: did a Kentucky Derby one. I mean, my picks were
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: not exactly great in the Kentucky Derby. Full disclosure, I
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: don't know what I'm talking about necessarily, But also I
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: think a lot of people got their tickets all busted
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: up in the Kentucky Derby because of one particular horse,
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: which is actually one of the horses in the Preakness. Now,
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: I guess I'll start off by talking about the race
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: itself here and where it is. It's in Maryland. Usually
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: the Preakness is at Pimlico, but that site is being renovated,
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: so it's going to be at a nearby location, Laurel Park,
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: and the race, I believe is going to be basically
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: the same distance, which is shorter than the Kentucky Derby.
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: And then I think the Belmont, which is going to
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: be in a few weeks, which is the last of
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: the Triple Crown, is the longest of the three of them,
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: not mistaken. I think that's like one and a half miles.
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: I'll have to refresh my metter. I could be wrong.
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: I don't know what I'm talking about. Kentucky Derby is
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: one and a quarter. This race is like usually like
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: one in three sixteenths basically, But with Laurel Park, I
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: think the straightaway I think it is a different length
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: or something like that, because there is a curve, there's
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: like a turn in this race, and at Pimlico it's
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: like a really sharp turn and at Laurel it's more gradual.
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: So that is the difference between these two tracks, which
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: I think the fact that it's more gradual I think
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: actually helps like the speed horses a little more in
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: this race because they don't have to try to slow
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: up and navigate like a sharp return, you know what
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: I mean, if that makes sense. But I'm not really
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: even analyzing like the horse styles in this race. I'm
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: just kind of analyzing the odds based on like how
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: good I think the horse sets up in the race.
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: But again, i don't know a whole lot about it.
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: I'm just gonna try to find value here. And if
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: you watch my Kentucky Derby video, I talk about how
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: the betting works. It's paramutual bettings. You're not actually betting
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: against the books, like even though the books will put odds,
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: and those odds do matter as far as how much
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: money you get back, like out of the pool. But
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: in this case it's pooled money. So everybody the bets,
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: the money all goes into a pool, and then you
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: win some percentage of that money back, and that is
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: also based off of the odds of the horses that
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: you bet, if you happen to win your bets, if
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: that makes sense. So it's actually easier to win money
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: betting horses because you're not betting against the house. You're
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: betting against everybody else in the pool basically, and if
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: you have better information than they do, it's more likely
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: you're gonna be able to win money, although I know
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: my plays did not with the Kentucky Derby. With the
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: Kentucky Derby, we had, you know, fairly unexpected with what
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: was did was Golden Tempo was the winner of the
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: Kentucky Derby at I don't know, I forget what odds
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: Golden Tempo went off at. But Golden Tempo was a closer.
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: So I talk about like the different styles of the horses.
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: You have horses that are like the speed pace setting
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: horses that are basically just gonna get the jump out
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: of the gate and pretty much just go fast pretty
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: much the whole time. Then you have like stalkers that
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: like to be just off the lead and then make
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: like a finishing move at the end. And then you
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: have the closers who sit further back and make a
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: huge move towards the end. And they were able to
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: do that in the Kentucky Derby. I don't know if
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: it was necessarily because like the start of the race
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: wound up being faster than expected, but sometimes that does
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: mean that the closers will be helped a little bit
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: more because the horses that are running too fast at
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: the beginning can tire out more before the end of
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: the race, and then those closers can actually close the
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: gap better. So yeah, Golden Tempo came from way back
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: and got like a good path and then wound up
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: winning as a closer. I mentioned, you know, Renegade had
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: the best odds, but I didn't love that Renegade was
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: on the post, like running it out of number one,
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: running on the rail, I mean, excuse me, running out
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: of a gate one, post position one, whatever you want
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: to call it. But on the rail. Renegade had the
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: best odds to win and was one of the top
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: horses and had irod or Tease riding him. And in fact,
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: I believe Jose or Tease was on Golden Tempo, and
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: I believe the two are brothers. So the top two
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: finishers in the race jockey wise, I'm pretty sure brothers,
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: which is kind of interesting. So Renegade came in second,
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: and then I believe third was the one that really
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: busted everybody's ticket up. Oh, Sally o'celly, however you want
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: to pronounce that horse's name, came in third. We'll talk
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: about him because he is in the Preakness. And then
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: there aren't that many horses in the Derby in the Preakness,
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: by the way, so there's not gonna be Golden Tempo's
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: not in the Preakness, So there's not gonna be a
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: triple crown winner this year. A lot of times there's not.
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: It seems like more it's more often now than ever.
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: It seems that horses just don't get raced in multiple
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: races here unless like the trainer like really really thinks
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: of that horse as a decent shot to win all
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: three races. So you see, like it's like you see
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: very few horses running all three races now. But that
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: is the case. A lot of horses that ran in
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: the Derby are going to run in the Belmont though,
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: but skip the Preakness. So what else was I gonna say,
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: Because I mean, running in the Preakness two weeks later,
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: it could be difficult, but I'm gonna counter that argument.
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: Also when we talk about these horses in a second,
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: and then we had a number four was the horse
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: that I liked to win the Kentucky Derby. Chief Wallaby
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: with the blinkers on, came in fourth in the Derby.
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: Not bad but not good enough, and I did like
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: Renegade second, and Renegade did come in second. Then we
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: had Bourbon Dan and Dan and Bourbon. Is that Dan
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: and Bourbon I think not Bourbon Dan, Dan and Bourbon
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: I think was the fifth place horse, and then sixth
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: was Incredible and Incredibol is also in the Preakness. So
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: we're gonna talk about that in a minute. And usually
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: I talk about like how to actually bet these things,
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: So there are like a few different ways that I
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: will actually like bet these horse races if I do
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: bet them. I don't even know if I'm gonna actually
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: bet the Preakness. My bets lost on the Kentucky Derby. Unfortunately,
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: I did put some money on that sort of based
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: off of what I talked about on the show. Here.
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: Didn't make it any official play or anything on the
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: show because I just don't know enough about it. But
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: you can make like like simple bets, like I'm gonna
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: bet this horse to win the race. Everybody understands that
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: you can bet a horse to win or place, So
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: they come in first or second, the payout is less,
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: but if they come in either spot, you win and
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: you can do win place or show they come in
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: one of the top three spots, which I like doing
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: that actually because the payout is still all right, although
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: it's less than those other two. But then I think
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: what you want to do is make use of exact
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: does and trifectas, and you can do those a couple
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: of different ways. The EXACTA you're picking the top two finishers,
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: and in the straight exacta, and then the trifector you're
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: picking the top three finishers and you have to get
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: them right in order. With the straight exact and the
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: straight trifecta, but you can also do a box exact
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: or a box trifecta where you are picking the top three,
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: but any combination of those will win, so you set
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: those up differently. When you're doing the box, it's like
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: you just take all the horses you like basically just
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: toss them all in sort of, you know what I mean,
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: because they can finish in any order. But the straight
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: The way that you want to do the straight ones
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: is you want to look at you you want to
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: factor in two things, Like you want to factor in
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: obviously the horse that you think can win the whole thing,
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: but you also want it to be based off of
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: what odds you're getting you know what I mean. So
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: it's a combinat, Like you're you're looking for value, so
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: it's got to be a combination of the best chance
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: to win, but also what odds are you getting whatever
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: that horse is, Do you think that's the best value.
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: I think you kind of just want to put them
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: at the top, so you put them number one in
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: your exact or trifecta. Then I think the group of
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: horses that you think are all contenders that can come
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: in like second or whatever, put them all in second.
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: And then of course some of those bets are gonna
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: lose because there's only one possible outcome there. But what
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: you're trying to do is not put all You're not
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: gonna put all the horses in the race in it,
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: you know what I mean. And that's where you gain
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: the edge because a lot of the horses you just
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: consider it to be dead money and don't put them in.
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: But then you want one of those horses that you
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: put as you're like like, maybe you pick like four
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: of them and like the Preakness as your second, your
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: runner up or whatever, and as long as one of
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: those hits, you're probably gonna win money. And then also
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: what I would recommend is you make another exact a
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: wager where you flip those two and you put all
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: four of those horses in the number one spot. So
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: if any of them happens to win, and your horse
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: that you pick to win happens to come in second,
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: you put that horse in second, then you're gonna win
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: at least those bets, you know what I mean. So
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: hopefully that makes sense. And then you do the same
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: thing with the trifecta and you just kind of rotate
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: the three like you put that one horse on top
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: the maybe like a couple of horses that you like
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: a little bit better, and second the rest of them
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: in third. But then also do the rotation where you
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: take that horse that you like the best. Also make
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: a trifecta wager where you put that horse in the
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: number two spot, the horses that you liked second best
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: put in the three, and then the horses that you
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: put in the third spot in that first triffactor you
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: put in the number one spot, and then make a
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: third wager where you rotate them around one more time.
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: If that makes sense, your ones that you initially put
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: in the number one spot, you also put a bet
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: in where they're in the number three spot, and the
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: ones that you put in the number three spot initially
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: are in the one and the one, you know, I hope,
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: I hope that makes sense. I don't know whatever. Maybe
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: I'm not making any sense, but I think you know
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: what I mean. Yes, Charles, what's up? Uh huh? Well,
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: you don't have the horse racing books? What do you mean?
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: Are they not available in your I use Draft Kings
• 11:24
  Speaker 3: for it, like you don't. You don't need to market
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: shop with with horses. Basically, as long as you have
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: one book, because it's paramutual, you can just do it. Yeah,
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: just get it. Like I mean, if you have Draft
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: Kings in your state or am I I'm not even
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: allowed to say the place with the Crown, I don't know.
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: Am I allowed to say it? I don't know, DK whatever,
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: But they have their own it's a separate app for horses.
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: But yeah, like, if they're available in your state, you
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: can do it. I know, like FD they have horse
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: racing available as well, like I think the primary books
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: I think pretty much all have. All right, let's talk
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: about this particular race. I don't want this to take
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: too long here, I'm gonna try to run through all
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: these I'm not gonna run through every horse because I
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: don't even know about some of these horses. Like, I'm
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: not gonna be talking about these thirty to one shots,
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: you know what I mean, except I'll mention one of
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: them just because one of them was in the Kentucky Derby.
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: But so these are the pole positions. Fourteen horses are
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: in unless some of them get scratched tomorrow. The number
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: one position is going to be taj Mahal, who has
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: five to one odds to win. So taj Mahal is
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: actually tied for the second best odds to win this
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: whole thing. So iron On or out of the nine
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: gate has the best odds to win. Then taj Mahal,
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: Chip Hon Show and Incredible, they're all right behind that
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: at five to one, and then o'celly, who I just mentioned,
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: is at six to one. Those are all the horses
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: that have the best odds to win. I do think
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: that one of those horses is probably gonna win. Taj
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: Mahal right out of the gate is kind of interesting.
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: Now there's a there's a lot of storylines here. There
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: are even more now it's getting really really crazy. So
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: if you don't know, the winner of the Kentucky Derby,
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: the horse Golden Tempa, has a female trainer. That's becoming
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: a thing now. Taj Mahal also has a female trainer.
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: So that's gonna be like a thing that people are
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: gonna be talking about, like, oh, what if a female
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: trainer wins every one of these uh, you know races, right,
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: So people are gonna be talking about that. So I
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: worry that that is gonna overvalue taj Mahal a little
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: bit because that is a storyline. And there's an additional
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: storyline where that's Britney Russell the trainer. Her husband, Sheldon
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: Russell is the jockey that's gonna be running on taj
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: Mahall as well. So that's another storyline there that they're
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: a husband wife trainer jockey pair. Uh. It's kind of ridiculous.
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: But taj Mahal does have some advantages here, namely that
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: taj Mahal is a local horse. Taj Mahal is from
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: this area of Maryland, trained here, and taj ma Hall
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: is I believe the only horse in this race that
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: has run on this track before, which is the Laurel
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: whatever it is now It's interesting because I believe these races,
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: these local races like that taj Mahal is run and
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: are not necessarily considered to be a stepping stone to
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: winning the Preakness. But the Preakness is usually at Pimlico,
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: and that's not where it is this year because of
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: the renovations. It's at Laurel Park, and taj Mahal, this
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: horse has run in this part like this is taj
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: ma Hall basically has a home advantage here. This is
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: like the track that the horse has run on the most,
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: and this horse has run on this track more than
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: any other horse that's in this race. So that is
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: the advantage of taj Mahal has here. So so I
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: think I think that is a fairly big deal. I
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: will say I think that's a decent advantage. But I
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: do think the five to one odd it's probably a
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: little bit overrated. Like I don't think taj Mahal has
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: faced very good competition, and that's kind of the knock
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: on that horse. But I might be talking about out
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: of my ass too. Number two is o'celley, who came
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: in third in the Kentucky Derby, and I believe that
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: horse was like what like twenty to one, thirty to
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: one in the Kentucky Derby, And if you watched the
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: Kentucky Derby, o'chelly kind of got like a really good
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: like got a good path to coming into coming in
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: third in the derby. Like I think O'Kelly was at
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: one of the far gates. I think o'celli was one
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: of the horses added after some of the horses got scratched.
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: I think o'celly joined the race late and ran out
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: of you know, like one of the twenty gates or
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: whatever it was, and was able to make a move
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: over to the inside and actually able to get that move.
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: But I think Ocelli got kind of lucky like having
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: that particular run. So I don't really like Ocelli here
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: at six to one. I think Ocelli's probably overvalued a
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: little bit because of the run in the Kentucky Derby. Now,
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: what I will say is that horses that run in
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: the Kentucky Derby, Like some people will say, well, that
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: horse is gonna be tire because the horse ran two
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: weeks ago, But I don't necessarily agree with that. Like
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: I think that horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: do actually tend to do well in the preakedness, so
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: I don't think that's that much of a disadvantage. But
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: I think Ocelli's over overvalued because of the run in
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: the Kentucky Derby, so I don't really like Ocelli that much. Robusta.
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: I'm just gonna mention running out of the four because
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: Robusta is actually one of the three horses in this
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: race that ran in the Kentucky Derby. I don't think
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: Robusta did particularly well in the Kentucky Derby. They're thirty
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: to this horse is thirty to one in this race.
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: But Robusta I think was one of the horses that
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: got added at the last minute in the Kentucky Derby
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: and was like running on the outside. I don't even
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: know what place Robusta came in, but I'm considering Robusta
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: to be like dead money in this race. That would
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: be my opinion. I would not have Robusta in my bets.
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: Taj Mahall, obviously, I am going I would recommend having
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: Taj Mahall somewhere in your top. Ocelley not really that
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: much of a fan man. I don't know I'm gonna
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: think about it for a little bit here. Talking at
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: number out of the number five gate is kind of interesting. Now, Talking,
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: I believe, does have some races against some good competition,
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: Like I think Talking did run some races that involved
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: some of the Kentucky Derby horses and whatever. In Talkin
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: is at twenty to one, even though Talking is being
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: ridden by irod Ortiz Junior, who I just told you
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: was on Renegade in the Kentucky Derby who came in second,
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: and Irad Ortiz chose Renegade thinking that Renegade was the
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: best chance to give him his first Kentucky Derby, and
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: when he didn't get it, but he came in second.
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: He is one of the best jockeys out there, so
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: I think he had his choice of horse here to
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: some extent and chose to ride Talking in this race.
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: So to me, it does seem like, well, I don't
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: think Talking is gonna win twenty to one. Seems like
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: that's probably some value there, Like I might consider putting
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: Talking in my like exotics, you know what I mean?
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: In the exact doesn't trifectas cause I think that horse
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: does have a chance to do better than what the
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: odds are giving it, Chip Honcho running out of the
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: six at five to one. I don't know much about
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: this horse man, to be honest, Like, I listened to
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: some shows about this and I just I don't know.
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: Like to me, I'm not really on board with it.
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: I just think that Chip Hancho is overvalued because Chiponcho
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: is being ridden by Jose Ortiz, who, like I said,
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: I believe he's Erod's brother, and I Jose Ortiz did
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: win the Kentucky Derby as a jockey. He was riding
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: goal than tempo. So I think that's why Chip Honcho
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: is five to one here. Like, I think Chip Honcho
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: does have some good races behind him, but I also
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: think he didn't face like terrific competition. Well he is
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: a really good horse, but yeah, I just think there's
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: you know, the five to one I think is over
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: value on Chip Honcho a little bit. That would be
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: my opinion on that one. You ran marathons, well, I
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: don't know, man, horses have a different recovery time, but
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: running running two marathons in two weeks, you're not gonna
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: run another marathon two weeks after running the first one.
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: Who does that. I don't think anybody does that then
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: we have. I don't know as far as these other horses,
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: The Hell we Did great name. The Hell We Did
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: is definitely the best name. I'm worried that the name
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: alone is gonna draw too much money here, like people
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: are just gonna bet that horse because of the name.
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: But the horse is being run by Luis Sai as
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: well known jockey, Todd Fincher, pretty well known trainer. They're
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: not David Fincher, the director. Fifteen to one of the
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: odds on that horse, I just don't know that much
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: about that horse. I don't know. I mean, I'm probably
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: not considering putting that horse in the exotics and whatever
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: and hoping that that horse doesn't bust everything up. Of course,
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: iron on Or, well, the Hell We Did is running
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: out of the seven gate. By the way, iron on
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: Or is running out of the nine gate has the
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: best odds to win nine to two, which is four
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: and a half to one if you can't do math now.
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: Iron Honor obviously has a really good jockey and trainer combination.
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: Flavian Pratt, maybe the best jockey out there is running
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: on iron on Or here and Chad Brown is considered
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: to be one of the top trainers. Chad Brown usually
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: doesn't do this with a horse, but I believe, I
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: don't know, there's something about Iron Honor's history. I think
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: Iron Onoor just doesn't have that many races behind or something.
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: And usually Chad Brown like doesn't enter those horses into
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: this race, but he's doing it here and he I
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: believe Iron Honor also had enough points to get into
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: the Kentucky Derby, but Chad Brown decided to skip the
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: Kentucky Derby and enter Iron Honor in the Preakness, So
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: that tells you that he is specifically trying to win
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: the Preakedness with this horse. So I think all those
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: things are adding up to why this horse has nine
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: to two odds. But I don't love Iron Honor here
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: Man Iron Honor. I mean, I think Iron Honor had
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: a really really bad race in Iron in the horse's
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: most recent race, and I think that's not a good sign.
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: Even though usually like you might say, well, because you
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: know me, I like zigzag things and stuff, and I
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: would think that, well, that's gonna undervalue that horse or whatever.
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: But how could the horse that has the best odds
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: to win the race be undervalued. I don't think the
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: horse is undervalued. I think the horse is probably overvalued.
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: Then we have Napoleon's solo out of the ten gate.
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: I don't know much about this horse at all. At
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: eight to one, I couldn't tell you a thing about
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: this horse, But that horse has decent odds to win
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: at eight to one. Then we have Incredibolts running out
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: of the twelve. I like Incredibolt, man. Like I just said,
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: incredibol did come in sixth in the Kentucky Derby. And
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: again people are gonna talk about how well these horses
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: that ran in the Kentucky Derby. They're you know, they're
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: gonna be tired, you know, two weeks later they have
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: to run again. But like I said, I think that's
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: not actually the case. I think a lot of times
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: when a horse does well in the Kentucky Derby, actually
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: they take another step forward. Depending on like how many
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: races they've had in this race cycle and whatever form, cycle, whatever,
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: they might race better in this race. And historically I
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: think that kind of has been the case, and Incredibolt
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: could have actually finished better in the Kentucky Derby. But
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: what I believe what happened was Incredible being I think
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: pretty young horse didn't make the right move to get
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: through traffic, and Renegade I think shoved in Incredibolt kind
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: of out and Renegade got the spot that an Incredible
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: I think was trying to aim for, and Renegade wound
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: up coming in second. But I think of Incredibol had
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: made that move a little bit sooner, I think Incredible
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: might have been able to come in second in the
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: Kentucky Derby instead of Renegade. So yeah, I think Incredibol
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: is a very strong play here, five to one or
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: the odds on Incredible. And then I'm gonna mention Great
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: White just because Great White was the horse that infamously
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: got scratched right before the Kentucky Derby started because Great
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: White freaked out when they were trying to get Great
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: White into the gate. He lurched backward, threw his jockey
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: off his back, landed on the track, and rolled over.
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: But the horse was fine. But whenever the horse goes
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: down like that, it's an automatic scratch and people are
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: you know, flipping out because oh, you know, these horses
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: are being mistreated and whatever, which I'm gonna talk about
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: something way worse that happened involving the russels, by the
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: way as well, in a second that I forgot. I
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: don't know how I forgot to mention that, because I
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: was about to when I was talking about taj Mahall.
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: But anyway, Yeah, so Great White had been added to
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: the Kentucky Derby because some horses got scratched. Then Great
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: White got scratched because he threw his jockey off his
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: back and rolled over. So Great White is a speed horse.
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: Great White. You know, I'm not really thinking the Great
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: White is, you know, a great play here, Great White
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: running out of the thirteen gate here fifteen to one odds.
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: You know, maybe there's a little bit of value there,
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: just because people know what happened at the Kentucky Derby,
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: and they're gonna be like, how could this horse run
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: two weeks after it did that? You know what I mean.
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: I don't know if I like Great White though, you know,
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: I don't know. They're like, there seems to be there
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: seems to be some anxiety issues there. I don't know.
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: Iron Honor, by the way, one other thing I'll say
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: about Iron Honor, is that I believe after Iron Honor
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: had a bad race in the last race, I believe
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: the train or braw I believe is taking uh the blinkers,
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: which are like the mask that restricts the horse's peripheral vision.
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: I believe he's taking the blinkers off Iron On or
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: coming into this. So you have to kind of gauge
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: like did he actually figure something out or is it
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: a desperation move? So that worries me about Iron Honor,
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: Like I don't think Iron Honors should have the best
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: odds to win this race, all right, No, you like
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: you're not gonna run like full, full bore again like
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: two weeks later, Like I think a horse is more
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: more well equipped to do that than a than a human. Like,
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: you're not gonna run twenty six point two miles or
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: whatever two weeks after also doing it. Nobody does that,
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: Like I at my previous company, uh, the second company
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: I worked for, I worked the dude that was like
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: the best manager that I've ever had. Loved that guy.
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: He was a triathlon run or a triathlete, and he
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: I thought he was insane for running like multiple in
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: the same year, Like that's like almost unheard of. Although
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: I know triathlon is more intense than a marathon, and
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: it has a half marathon as part of it, but
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: it's still insane. Horses name, I don't even know what
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: we're talking about. A run the horse that killed mister Hans.
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: I have no idea. No, I'm not recommending Great White, William.
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: I'm not no to state. What's up?
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: Man?
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: Can I call you by your real name? Or do
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: I have to not do that? You feel bad for
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: the jockey? Yeah, you just said yeah, his name whatever? Anyway, No,
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: I'm not recommending betting on Great White. The other thing
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: I will talk about with the Russels with taj Mahal.
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: Something else just happened today because there were some races
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: already going on that lead up to the Preakness, Like
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: the Preakness is the thirteenth race at Laurel Park, and
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: some of the races were today. There was a horse.
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: There was a horse called what was the name of
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: the horse? I gotta remember? Now, hold on something zero.
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure the horse is now a zero. Hang on,
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: I'm looking right now. Where what hold on? I'm gonna
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: tell you right now. Because it was a horse that
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: was trained by Brittany Russell. Yes, so all the peda
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: people are criticizing again, hit zero was the name of
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: the horse. That horse did hit zero because the horse
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: suffered a cardiac arrest and died today, I believe after
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: running a race there. I don't know that horse is
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: dead and that horse is one of the horses in
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: the Russell's stable. So now the question becomes, does that
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: mean they're gonna like be trying harder to win this race?
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: Like does it mean like I don't know, is Sheldon Russell,
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: who's the jockey on Taz Mahll? Does that mean is
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: that gonna fuck with his head? Like? Which way is
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: that gonna go? I have no fucking idea, Like are
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: they gonna try to win the race for this other
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: horse they have that died or is he gonna be,
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: you know, not in the right mindset to run here?
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: I have no idea. I don't think it's gonna affect
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: the horse because I don't know. I mean, does the
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: horse know what's going on? Taj Mahal? Is he gonna
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: run harder for his friend hit zero? I have no idea.
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: But what I will say is, because I don't want
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: this to take too long here, I would put Incredibolt
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: at the top of my h my betting here, I
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: like Incredible the best in this race. That's what I
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: would do. You know, make some bets maybe to win
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: place or show like that type of thing. But if
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: you're doing the exactness to try affect us, I would
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: have Incredibolt at the top. And if I was gonna
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: pick another horse that I like second, I was gonna
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: say taj Mahall. If we don't think that the dead
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: horse out of the Russell stable is gonna affect them
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: at all, I think I do like taj Mahall's second
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: because of the home advantage that horse has. That's what
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: I would say. And then, man, you know, I like
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: those two at the top. And then I would probably say,
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: it's so difficult to figure it out. Man, I don't know.
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: I might even go, you know, like I would say,
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: you want to put Chip Honcho Iron on Or, and
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: I guess I don't know if you even want to
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: put I don't like Ocelli, dude, I just don't. I
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: don't know, like Chip Honcho Iron Honor, And I would
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: put Talking in that like bottom like leg of my
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: like exotics, you know, what I mean, like, I might
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: arrange them, and that's probably the order. I would go Incredible,
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: then taj Mahall, then Chip, Honcho, then iron On or
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: then Talking. I think that's what I would do. Maybe
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: you throw a Chelly in just in that last leg,
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: just to make sure that he if he hits the board,
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: it doesn't like fuck everything up for you. That's probably do.
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: But I think probably the rest of the horses I'm
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: gonna say are kind of dead money though. So those
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: are my thoughts. Do with that information what you want?
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: That's about it. Yeah, No, this isn't dude the three Dude.
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: We're talking about the Triple Crown Races. They're American horse races.
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: They're in Kentucky, Maryland, and New York. I believe the
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: Belmont is in New York? Right? Am I wrong about that?
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure it's in New York. All Right, that's
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: gonna do it. Those are my recommendations. I like Incredible
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: the best. I still like taj Mahal's second best. Then
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: you know, again, I would say I like Talking's value
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: obviously at twenty to one, I think taking has better value.
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: So that's why I kind of consider moving them up
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: a little bit there in that list there, and then
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: I would I would put like Chip Honcho, Iron Honor,
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: and I guess o'celley in just to make sure they'll
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: bust up your ticket. I don't think I would putting
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: a bullying solo in, but maybe he'll fuck everything up.
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: I don't know. But of course I'm talking about with exotics,
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: where you put certain horses at number one, number two,
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: number three, and then you do the rotation where like
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: I said, you take the horses that you put in
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: number two and number three and rotate them into the
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: one and two, and you make all those vets as well,
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: just to cover all your bases, you know what I mean.
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: As long as you're actually throwing out the real dead
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: money in the race, and you hit like you should
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: actually win money here, all right, that's gonna do it,
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: you know. And of course it does depend on how
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: much money is in the in the total pool, but
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: there will be enough that you can win money out
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: of it. Like you're we're talking about, like the money
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: that you put on the exact does a trifectas and whatever.
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: Each one ranges from like fifty cents to like two bucks.
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: Basically you know what I mean, because it adds up
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: because you're paying that amount on each like combination that
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: you do, you know what I mean. So like usually
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: you're gonna have like thirty forty fifty bucks combine throw
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: out your like set of trifectas or exact as if
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: that makes sense, you know what I mean. And then
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: you're trying to win more than that, or you know,
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: like like for the Derby, I had some like two
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: buck ones and whatever. But if you're you know, if
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: if you want to take less risk, you know you
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: can do like fifty cent ones and stuff like that.
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: I think you might be able to go lower than
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: that too. I don't know. Check out what your book
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: allows you to do. That's gonna do it. Let's go incredible.
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: That's what I'll say about this. That's it man. I
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: don't know anything about the horses though, so don't listen
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: to me when I'm talking about horses. I just figure
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: that I would do it anyway. I'll just cover it,
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: even though I'm a moron and I have no idea
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: what I'm doing. You know, Uh, take my bad advice
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: or don't, is what I will say. Yeah, I'm not
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: to blame though, that's gonna do it. You have free
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: will everybody. Learn a tone on Twitter, learn a tone
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: on Instagram, like, subscribe to the channel here, listen on audio, Apple, Spotify,
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: Spree or whatever. We're on all the things covered in
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: yuke My Yuke channel. I did another yuke cover just now,
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: which was a request from a chick who contacted me
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: on Instagram telling me how much she loved my Yay
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: cover back in the day and how it got her
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: through a really difficult time in her life. I'm like,
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: that's crazy, dude, because you have some people that are
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: like that want me to die based off of that cover,
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: and then you have other people that are like, I
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: love that cover so much and it like saved my life.
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: I'm like, dude, that is like a wide spectrum of reactions.
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: That's what I'll say. Shout out to her, Shout out
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: to Laura, and So I did a cover for her.
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: It's Billy Joel. You can check that out. It's on Twitter,
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: It's on Covered in yuke on the YouTube already. I'll
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: put it up on the Patreon soon, Patreon dot com,
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: slash and learn to toad you can support me there
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: as well. And loser Cast every Tuesday night. You can
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: check that show out. We're hitting the roof. I think
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: it's kind of fun. It's kind of funny and g
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: spot the Giants podcast. I believe that's all I have
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: right now. That's gonna do it. Peace. Thanks ranging out everybody.
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the flow.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: Your name still mean something to somebody for show.
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: Put the glass.
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: Down, baby, look at me. No, hold on, hold on,
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: not tone now, hold on, hold on, let me pull
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: that bites hard, but it don't get the crown. Hold on,
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: hold on and stay with me.
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: So