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MONDAY BEST BETS | NHL & NBA | 3/16/26 · Toadstool Sports

0:00
Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
0:05
Speaker 1: Own seven run over the last two days after tonight
0:08
Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
0:11
Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
0:14
Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
0:17
Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
0:20
Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
0:24
Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all all in
0:27
Speaker 1: four that have not had a good season. Man with
0:31
Speaker 1: wookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues.
0:36
Speaker 1: I've reached into pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my
0:41
Speaker 1: browins hat man, I don't know what is going on
0:43
Speaker 1: with the bruins arch hape? Is that what it is?
0:46
Speaker 1: I don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think
0:49
Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
0:52
Speaker 1: I don't even know what data is anymore. Man, back
0:55
Speaker 1: with you after the worst day that I can possibly have,
0:59
Speaker 1: Back with you as I always am until I die,
1:02
Speaker 1: at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did
1:06
Speaker 1: not go well for me. Own five. The worst month
1:10
Speaker 1: that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
1:13
Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
1:15
Speaker 1: To the slumps, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody
1:20
Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
1:24
Speaker 1: should do at this point other than potentially end it all.
1:33
Speaker 1: What's up, everybody? It's towed back with you with Toadstool Sports.
1:36
Speaker 1: It is Monday, March sixteenth, the calm before the storm,
1:42
Speaker 1: I guess if you want to call it that, as
1:45
Speaker 1: the NCAA Tournament is going to begin tomorrow with the
1:49
Speaker 1: the opening round games beginning tomorrow. I gave a bracket
1:53
Speaker 1: reaction last night for about an hour, so you can
1:55
Speaker 1: check that out if you missed it. I will probably
1:58
Speaker 1: fill out the women's bracket here on the show today
2:01
Speaker 1: because I put way less effort into that. I'm just
2:03
Speaker 1: I pretty much just kind of go based on the
2:06
Speaker 1: analytics and just pick the better teams everywhere, don't really
2:09
Speaker 1: game theory it as much. So I will do that
2:12
Speaker 1: and then the men's one. Like I said, I think
2:15
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna do it Wednesday night. For the men's
2:18
Speaker 1: I once we let all the numbers kind of come
2:20
Speaker 1: in and figure everything out, so I'm gonna have to
2:24
Speaker 1: start preparing for that today probably, But today here on
2:28
Speaker 1: the show, I am gonna give up two plays. One's
2:30
Speaker 1: gonna be in the NHL. One is gonna be NBA.
2:33
Speaker 1: And actually, hold on, I gotta make sure that I
2:35
Speaker 1: know what my plays actually are here. One is gonna
2:38
Speaker 1: be let me see, we have an underdog in the NHL.
2:41
Speaker 1: I just gotta put it into the system here right now.
2:46
Speaker 1: And then we have an under are really really ugly
2:50
Speaker 1: under They're both horribly ugly underdogs. But you know that's
2:53
Speaker 1: how I do things, so you probably already know what
2:56
Speaker 1: they are. Yes, all right, they're in the system. Let's
3:01
Speaker 1: do this Canadian Stone or what's up man? Thanks for
3:06
Speaker 1: hanging out? Is that the Budweiser commercial? Bud Light I
3:12
Speaker 1: think is what it was? All right, let's get into it, man,
3:15
Speaker 1: this should be a quick show today. First game up.
3:19
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, let's get right into it. It's a best bet,
3:22
Speaker 1: so you already know what the play is. We're gonna
3:26
Speaker 1: have an NHL play here on Calgary. I'm recommending a
3:30
Speaker 1: split bet. Partially. It'll be about I would say about
3:34
Speaker 1: sixty percent or so on the plus one and a
3:36
Speaker 1: half money or excuse me, plus one and a half
3:38
Speaker 1: puck line at minus one sixty five or so, the
3:41
Speaker 1: rest of it on the money line plus one fifty five.
3:45
Speaker 1: I can show you the breakdown as well, like this
3:47
Speaker 1: would be for a bet to win three hundred. If
3:50
Speaker 1: it was a bet to win one hundred, You're putting
3:53
Speaker 1: sixty four of it on the minus one sixty five
3:56
Speaker 1: part of it, in thirty nine on the other part
3:58
Speaker 1: of it. So basically it comes out to a puck
4:02
Speaker 1: line a plus one puck line, right, so if they
4:04
Speaker 1: lose by one, you're gonna push the bet. That's how
4:07
Speaker 1: I do it with these underdogs. I know it's a
4:08
Speaker 1: little bit more risk averse, but you know it's the
4:11
Speaker 1: way that I do it. We're gonna fade Detroit here
4:14
Speaker 1: in this one. Calgary. I know they're really bad, but
4:17
Speaker 1: I think we're probably gonna at least get an effort
4:20
Speaker 1: out of them in a game and gainst a decent
4:22
Speaker 1: team like Detroit. Calgary they've lost three of their last four,
4:25
Speaker 1: but showing some competitiveness in their last couple of games.
4:31
Speaker 1: They're nearing the end of the road trip, which I
4:33
Speaker 1: guess is the one concern the teams do like kind
4:36
Speaker 1: of tire out towards the end of the road trip,
4:38
Speaker 1: but I think they're gonna try to get one. At
4:40
Speaker 1: the end of this road trip. They're probably switching back
4:42
Speaker 1: to wolf in Net. Shout out to Jeffrey who sometimes
4:46
Speaker 1: is in the chat for that one. But really, this
4:49
Speaker 1: is a fade in Detroit here. Detroit's are turning on
4:51
Speaker 1: from a road trip. And you know, I talk about
4:53
Speaker 1: this all the time. They've been away since March eighth,
4:56
Speaker 1: and when teams are gone, especially for over week, and
5:00
Speaker 1: they come back home, they have stuff to do back
5:02
Speaker 1: at home, it can become a distraction. A lot of
5:04
Speaker 1: times they won't pay attention to their opponent when they
5:07
Speaker 1: come back, especially if it's a bad opponent like Calgary,
5:11
Speaker 1: and Detroit does Montreal on deck, who's having a much
5:14
Speaker 1: better season, Boston after that, so they have all better
5:16
Speaker 1: teams on deck. And it's even worse because on Saturday,
5:19
Speaker 1: they finished the road trip by taking Dallas into overtime
5:23
Speaker 1: on the road. Very very good Dallas team. That was
5:26
Speaker 1: a huge game for Detroit as well. So this is
5:28
Speaker 1: also a sandwich spot on top of that, and they
5:32
Speaker 1: had other tough games on that road trip to Florida,
5:35
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. So yeah, this looks like the absolute like
5:39
Speaker 1: down spot in the schedule, whatever you want to call it.
5:41
Speaker 1: We're on Calgary here. Detroit's minus one seventy seven on
5:45
Speaker 1: the money line, eighty six percent of the tickets are
5:47
Speaker 1: on them, fifty four percent of the cash. However, showing
5:50
Speaker 1: on Calgary right now, I think the market is probably
5:53
Speaker 1: gonna wind up agreement in me on that. It's ugly,
5:55
Speaker 1: but that's the first play. That is the hockey play. Kyle,
5:59
Speaker 1: what's up? Thanks for hanging out all right? My Boston
6:05
Speaker 1: Bruins are at New Jersey on ESPN. Now, the Bruins
6:08
Speaker 1: haven't been very good at They haven't been very good
6:11
Speaker 1: on the road. Excuse me, twelve fourteen and five really
6:15
Speaker 1: bad on the road New Jersey. Okay. At home, they
6:18
Speaker 1: don't really have huge home roads splitz. They're close to
6:20
Speaker 1: five hundred both on the road and at home. Bruins
6:24
Speaker 1: have massive home road splits, much much better at home. Unfortunately,
6:29
Speaker 1: they did just get a win on the road at Washington. Now,
6:33
Speaker 1: this is an ESPN game, but I don't know, man,
6:35
Speaker 1: I mean, I worry that the Bruins are gonna look
6:36
Speaker 1: ahead to tomorrow when they play their really their main rival.
6:41
Speaker 1: If you don't know Montreal, the Bruins in Montreal are
6:44
Speaker 1: both original six teams. There's a lot of animosity between
6:48
Speaker 1: these two teams and fan bases, even though you know
6:52
Speaker 1: it hasn't happened recently because Montreal hasn't been that good.
6:55
Speaker 1: But you know, I think the rivalry is kind of
6:58
Speaker 1: being renewed here for New Jersey. They did just win
7:02
Speaker 1: at home six to four against La, ending a two
7:05
Speaker 1: game losing streak. Staying at home, you know, I think
7:09
Speaker 1: they're gonna try to get another win on this home
7:11
Speaker 1: stand here. They're two and two on the home or
7:13
Speaker 1: excuse me three wait what Oh, they're at home Way
7:17
Speaker 1: for way more games than I thought. No, never mind,
7:18
Speaker 1: they're They're four and two on the home stand right now,
7:21
Speaker 1: but they lost two of their last three games. I
7:24
Speaker 1: don't know. I still think you probably get an effort
7:25
Speaker 1: out of New Jersey here. I don't want anything to
7:27
Speaker 1: do with the game, but Bruins seventy five percent of
7:30
Speaker 1: ticket to eighty two percent of the cash on them.
7:33
Speaker 1: I guess that means the cash percentage is on the
7:35
Speaker 1: Bruins right now. But I think they're gonna be a
7:38
Speaker 1: public side. There's also a reason why New Jersey, even
7:41
Speaker 1: though they have the worst record, there's a reason why
7:43
Speaker 1: they're actually the favorite here and minus one twenty two.
7:47
Speaker 1: So you know, when you have whenever you see the
7:50
Speaker 1: team with the worst record as a favorite, you should
7:52
Speaker 1: take notice of that, I would say, and at least
7:54
Speaker 1: consider it. Uh So I lean in New Jersey there.
7:58
Speaker 1: I considered adding this next game play the La Kings
8:02
Speaker 1: at the New York Rangers. Here we know, like right away,
8:06
Speaker 1: these are the two teams that have like the really
8:08
Speaker 1: crazy home roads split. So I think that alone probably
8:12
Speaker 1: makes you like it probably means you should be looking
8:15
Speaker 1: towards the road team here. Now, the Kings, I mean,
8:17
Speaker 1: they're actually not great on the road, but seventeen nine
8:20
Speaker 1: and eight really not that bad. A lot of close games,
8:23
Speaker 1: a lot of overtime losses. Rangers, as I keep mentioning,
8:27
Speaker 1: are really bad at home nine to fifteen and six.
8:30
Speaker 1: So we do have two teams with pretty extreme home
8:33
Speaker 1: road splits, both going in favor of the Kings here
8:36
Speaker 1: because they're better on the road. The Rangers are much
8:39
Speaker 1: worse at home. So we have both of those things
8:42
Speaker 1: in favor of the Kings here. The Kings also just
8:45
Speaker 1: lost to the Devils, so that's also that would point
8:50
Speaker 1: you in the direction of like a bounce back spot
8:51
Speaker 1: for the Kings here trying to get a win at
8:54
Speaker 1: the end of the road trip, last game of the
8:56
Speaker 1: road trip. The tough thing about this is like one
8:59
Speaker 1: of the reasons I don't want really jump into the
9:00
Speaker 1: Kings here though, I mean end of the road trip.
9:02
Speaker 1: You could get a little bit tired. Yes, they're gonna
9:04
Speaker 1: be motivated to try to go three to two on
9:07
Speaker 1: the road trip, but look at the road trip they've
9:09
Speaker 1: had here. They're playing a third game in four days,
9:13
Speaker 1: all in different cities, and then they're also having to
9:15
Speaker 1: play a fifth game in what is that eight days,
9:19
Speaker 1: so it's a little bit of a pack schedule there.
9:22
Speaker 1: So that does warry me a little bit. The Rangers
9:25
Speaker 1: are returning over from a road trip, though only a
9:29
Speaker 1: quick road trip, though it was Thursday Saturday. They won
9:32
Speaker 1: both games. They'd beat Minnesota, so they did pull off
9:36
Speaker 1: an upset of Minnesota, so they could be in a
9:39
Speaker 1: letdown spot coming off of that in returning home, and
9:42
Speaker 1: they have New Jersey on deck, who is one of
9:44
Speaker 1: their geographic rivals. And not only that, but the Rangers
9:48
Speaker 1: only have one loss since coming out of the Olympic break.
9:51
Speaker 1: And guess who that loss was to. Yeah, it was
9:54
Speaker 1: too New Jersey so they might actually look ahead to
9:57
Speaker 1: New Jersey here. So I like the Kings in this
9:59
Speaker 1: game quite a bit. Actually, this one almost made my card.
10:03
Speaker 1: The money looks a little bit iffy here. Rangers eighty
10:06
Speaker 1: percent of tickets, ninety five percent of the cash on them.
10:08
Speaker 1: But Kings very very close to making my card. They're
10:12
Speaker 1: down for minus one to fifteen to minus one twelve here.
10:15
Speaker 1: I would lay it. I would play money line on
10:18
Speaker 1: the Kings in that one. I'm very tempted to actually
10:21
Speaker 1: do it. It's just the I don't know the schedule
10:25
Speaker 1: for the Kings worries me just a little bit. But
10:28
Speaker 1: you know, I still think that's the right way to
10:29
Speaker 1: go in that game. Utah at Dallas. Utah on a
10:34
Speaker 1: losing streak right now. Utah decent team this year, though
10:37
Speaker 1: maybe not as good as the record looks, but they're
10:39
Speaker 1: pretty good. But they're on a four game losing streak
10:41
Speaker 1: here starting a road trip, quick road trip, but I
10:45
Speaker 1: think you're gonna get effort out of them at least
10:47
Speaker 1: because they're going to Dallas. Dallas really good, but you
10:50
Speaker 1: gotta figure a team like Utah on a losing streak
10:53
Speaker 1: is gonna step up their game. For Dallas is cruising
10:56
Speaker 1: right now, and they're coming off three nice wins against Vegas,
10:59
Speaker 1: killing Edmonton, then beating Detroit in overtime, and they have
11:02
Speaker 1: Colorado on deck, and then Minnesota and then Vegas again.
11:06
Speaker 1: So there is the possibility they actually overlook Utah here,
11:09
Speaker 1: just because Utah doesn't really have that weight behind their name,
11:13
Speaker 1: even though they're having a good season. So I would
11:15
Speaker 1: lean to Utah in this one. Dallas up to minus
11:18
Speaker 1: one fifty five on the money line. I don't see
11:19
Speaker 1: the percentages on it yet. And then we have Pittsburgh
11:23
Speaker 1: and Colorado, which is the second game of the ESPN
11:26
Speaker 1: doubleheader here. Pittsburgh having a pretty good season, even though
11:30
Speaker 1: I don't think they're as good as their record might indicate.
11:32
Speaker 1: They just beat Utah, so they're playing a second straight
11:35
Speaker 1: game in elevation one day off here, they're having to
11:40
Speaker 1: play Carolina after this. They're playing a couple of huge
11:42
Speaker 1: games in a row here. I think you'll get effort
11:47
Speaker 1: out of them. The question is will they be able
11:48
Speaker 1: to handle a team like Colorado, who's very very good.
11:53
Speaker 1: Colorado coming off a loss to Winnipeg and now they're
11:57
Speaker 1: returning home from only a quick road trip, though two
11:59
Speaker 1: game road trip, it's a home game on ESPN. You
12:04
Speaker 1: got to think they will get up for this game.
12:05
Speaker 1: But they do have Dallas on deck, so you know,
12:09
Speaker 1: maybe there are some concerns with Colorado here. They did
12:12
Speaker 1: drop for minus two twenty seven to minus two ten
12:14
Speaker 1: on the money line eighty three percent of the tickets
12:17
Speaker 1: ninety nine percent of the cash. Likely not accurate there,
12:19
Speaker 1: But I don't know what to do with this game. Man.
12:22
Speaker 1: I could see arguments for both sides in this game.
12:25
Speaker 1: This one is probably the one that I have the
12:27
Speaker 1: least ability to read. To be honest, I have more
12:30
Speaker 1: of an opinion on the side in all the other games.
12:32
Speaker 1: This one. It's kind of anybody's guess. Like you have
12:38
Speaker 1: to try to gauge how focused Colorado is gonna be.
12:40
Speaker 1: I think is really the how you try to figure
12:43
Speaker 1: this game out, you know. And I'm not really much
12:45
Speaker 1: of a totals guy, but I don't have much to
12:46
Speaker 1: say about that total. There was I correct about the total.
12:51
Speaker 1: What total? I know there was an over that I
12:54
Speaker 1: liked yesterday. I don't remember which game it was. I
12:57
Speaker 1: think I got it wrong. I think it was that
12:58
Speaker 1: Saint Louis Winnipeg game. So yeah, I got that one wrong.
13:03
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to the NBA here. My play
13:06
Speaker 1: in the NBA is probably uglier than the hockey one.
13:09
Speaker 1: And it's the first game up as well. No, it's
13:11
Speaker 1: the second game. We're gonna talk about first games Peacock
13:14
Speaker 1: NBC Network. They're having three games televised there. There's like
13:19
Speaker 1: a main double header and then there's an extra game
13:23
Speaker 1: on Peacock. The first game here is you know, it's
13:26
Speaker 1: not the worst game. Orlando at Atlanta. I think both
13:29
Speaker 1: these teams are gonna make the playoffs. Orlando's actually been
13:32
Speaker 1: playing pretty well recently, even without Wagner, who I think
13:36
Speaker 1: is still not back. Or Orlando's on a huge win streak,
13:38
Speaker 1: actually seven wins in a row. They just upset Miami
13:42
Speaker 1: on the road. Very nice to win there. Now. I
13:45
Speaker 1: don't know if they're gonna overlook Atlanta or not. They
13:48
Speaker 1: do have Oklahoma City tomorrow, but Atlanta is probably a
13:51
Speaker 1: team that they're actually kind of competing against for playoff
13:54
Speaker 1: positioning or whatever, so I don't know that they're really
13:56
Speaker 1: gonna overlook Atlanta. Here. Atlanta is on an even longer
13:59
Speaker 1: win believe it or not. They've won nine straight games.
14:03
Speaker 1: Although Atlanta's win streak, I will say, is less impressive
14:06
Speaker 1: to me because there are like no good wins in here. Again.
14:09
Speaker 1: The best team they beat is beating Milwaukee in here twice.
14:12
Speaker 1: Base again, I guess Philadelphia. I guess maybe, but we
14:15
Speaker 1: know Philadelphia is massively injured, so I'm not impressed by
14:19
Speaker 1: this Atlanta win streak. I think it's actually kind of fraudulent.
14:23
Speaker 1: They're staying at home here. The money looks like it
14:27
Speaker 1: is coming in on Atlanta, though they're up to a
14:29
Speaker 1: three point favorite, fifty to fifty on the ticket, seventy
14:31
Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on the Hawks. I kind
14:34
Speaker 1: of don't disagree with it, because the Magic are coming
14:37
Speaker 1: off that more difficult win at Miami, so you know,
14:42
Speaker 1: the spot looks a little bit more questionable for them,
14:44
Speaker 1: but not something I want to deal with, although what
14:46
Speaker 1: I am gonna deal with is something even uglier. The
14:49
Speaker 1: best bet in the NBA coming up right now, We're
14:55
Speaker 1: going right back to it again. Man. Wizards plus seven
14:58
Speaker 1: and a half here this Golden State. Both these teams
15:03
Speaker 1: have injuries. The Wizards lost Sarre again. Sar he's you know,
15:08
Speaker 1: one of their big men. He's out. But this is
15:11
Speaker 1: all about the spot man. And of course we know
15:13
Speaker 1: Golden State they're down like everybody. They have no Curry,
15:16
Speaker 1: Porzingis is like always sick. Who knows if he's playing.
15:19
Speaker 1: I think Draymond Green is out, Butler we know is
15:22
Speaker 1: out for the season. So we're looking at a very
15:25
Speaker 1: very injured Golden State team here. But we're also looking
15:27
Speaker 1: at Golden State being in a very bad spot in
15:30
Speaker 1: my opinion, and I think they're coming to the realization
15:32
Speaker 1: they're not gonna make the playoffs. Playoffs. Golden State's lost
15:37
Speaker 1: five straight, but they just put in a huge effort
15:40
Speaker 1: against the Knicks. They almost beat the Knicks. They were
15:44
Speaker 1: at New York, where the Knicks are actually really good
15:47
Speaker 1: at home. Golden State's been bad on the road this year, man,
15:50
Speaker 1: so that's also going to factor into this handicap here.
15:53
Speaker 1: By the way, Golden State thirteen and twenty on the road.
15:56
Speaker 1: They're not good on the road. There were fourteen and
16:00
Speaker 1: a half point underdogs in this game, and they're winning
16:03
Speaker 1: the game by twenty one in the first half, and
16:05
Speaker 1: then the game was pretty much close throughout the entire
16:08
Speaker 1: second half and they fell just short after being within
16:12
Speaker 1: one point in the final minute. They wound up losing
16:15
Speaker 1: the game by three. So Golden State gave it the raw.
16:17
Speaker 1: And you know, I talk about this when a team
16:19
Speaker 1: has a huge effort like that, and it's even worse
16:21
Speaker 1: because that was last night, by the way, when a
16:24
Speaker 1: team has a huge effort like that and they fall short,
16:27
Speaker 1: a lot of times they come up hugely flat in
16:30
Speaker 1: the next game. And then Golden State has Boston on
16:33
Speaker 1: ESPN on Wednesday and then Detroit, so they they're in
16:36
Speaker 1: a sandwich spot. Those games are much bigger than this game.
16:39
Speaker 1: I know, a team on a losing streak a lot
16:41
Speaker 1: of times, you know they're gonna try to get up
16:43
Speaker 1: and get you know, a win for once, but I
16:47
Speaker 1: don't see how they get back up off the mat
16:49
Speaker 1: after that and having to travel to Washington, Like, how
16:51
Speaker 1: excited do you get about Washington. Meanwhile, Washington did just
16:55
Speaker 1: lose to Boston. They lost by eleven, so they actually
16:59
Speaker 1: wound up covering the number. They were twenty point underdogs
17:02
Speaker 1: in that game, but the Celtics had a handle on
17:04
Speaker 1: That game was a very typical Celtics game. And you
17:07
Speaker 1: remember I talked about how that was a bad spot
17:10
Speaker 1: for the Celtics because the Celtics were returning on from
17:14
Speaker 1: a road trip. I know Washington also is right here.
17:17
Speaker 1: I know that that is a concern. Maybe I shouldn't
17:19
Speaker 1: be on this game, but I think I just have
17:21
Speaker 1: to do it. But anyway, the Celtics, Yeah, I mean
17:27
Speaker 1: that was a game where the Celtics had a pretty
17:28
Speaker 1: big lead and they just they just completely coasted in
17:32
Speaker 1: the second half of that game. So I think Washington
17:34
Speaker 1: will give you an effort here back at home with
17:37
Speaker 1: Golden State here, I mean, Golden State again is on
17:39
Speaker 1: the back to back. I know Washington's been away for
17:41
Speaker 1: more than a week, but they pretty much stayed on
17:44
Speaker 1: the East coast. So I'm a little bit less concerned
17:46
Speaker 1: about that trip, even though I know you get home
17:49
Speaker 1: a lot of times you are distract and I know
17:51
Speaker 1: they have Detroit next, so you know, this one, it
17:55
Speaker 1: worried me a little bit, but I think we're gonna
17:57
Speaker 1: do it. We're gonna take the Wizards here and this
17:58
Speaker 1: one plus the points. This is like, you're almost never
18:02
Speaker 1: gonna see me play a team on a return home spot.
18:06
Speaker 1: I just think the spot for the Warriors is that
18:08
Speaker 1: bad here, Uh, fifty percent of tickets, fifty three percent
18:11
Speaker 1: of the cousual on the Warriors for now. But obviously
18:14
Speaker 1: we were going with the Wizards in that one. Yet
18:17
Speaker 1: again the Wizards plus the points. Hey, they covered the
18:21
Speaker 1: last time for us, so do it again. Baby. Portland
18:26
Speaker 1: is at Brooklyn. This number looks crazy. Portland is actually
18:29
Speaker 1: laying double digits on the road. That's how bad the
18:33
Speaker 1: Nets are. I guess. But I told you Portland played
18:36
Speaker 1: last night, and I told you that they were laying
18:37
Speaker 1: too many points at that very injured Philadelphia team, and
18:41
Speaker 1: Portland actually lost the game. And now they're laying a
18:44
Speaker 1: ton of points on the road again. I mean, okay,
18:47
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna be doing that. I wouldn't lay the
18:50
Speaker 1: points with them here. You know, they're playing a third
18:52
Speaker 1: game in four days, all in different cities. Brooklyn also
18:55
Speaker 1: just played Philadelphia, but they didn't play yesterday, of course,
18:58
Speaker 1: because Philadelphia can't be in two players at once. Brooklyn
19:02
Speaker 1: is returning home, but only from a quick trip to
19:04
Speaker 1: Atlanta and Philadelphia. They played okay against Philadelphia in their
19:09
Speaker 1: last game, but you know, I know they have Oklahoma City,
19:12
Speaker 1: New York on deck. Those are big games. But there's
19:16
Speaker 1: no way that I would lay ten points with the Blazers,
19:18
Speaker 1: and in this spot on the road, there's no way.
19:21
Speaker 1: I mean ridiculous. Fifty percent of tickets, sixty nine percent
19:24
Speaker 1: of the cash on the nets. I would lean to
19:27
Speaker 1: the nets plus the points there, but not a strong opinion.
19:30
Speaker 1: Phoenix at Boston. Phoenix is coming off a loss to
19:34
Speaker 1: Toronto and now they gotta go play my Boston Celtics.
19:39
Speaker 1: They're gonna get up for this game, I would I
19:41
Speaker 1: would imagine they did lose at home to the Celtics
19:43
Speaker 1: in a very ugly, low scoring game back up February
19:47
Speaker 1: twenty fourth, So a little bit of quick road revenge here.
19:50
Speaker 1: The Celtics might not take Phoenix as seriously this time,
19:55
Speaker 1: especially the Celtics have taied him back now he didn't
19:58
Speaker 1: play in that first game against the Suns. The Suns
20:01
Speaker 1: are a very good team against the spread this year,
20:04
Speaker 1: so I will say that. Now the Celtics are coming
20:06
Speaker 1: up an easy win over Washington. It is their second
20:08
Speaker 1: home game. Now Phoenix is a winning team, so the
20:12
Speaker 1: Celtics might give you an effort here as well. Celtics,
20:15
Speaker 1: you know, again, they had a real easy game, so
20:18
Speaker 1: they won't be tired or anything like that. They're now
20:20
Speaker 1: settled back in at home. They do have an ESPN
20:22
Speaker 1: game against the Warriors coming up next, so maybe that's
20:26
Speaker 1: caused for a look ahead. But the Warriors have had
20:28
Speaker 1: a bad season. Man, Celtics are a nine point favorite here,
20:33
Speaker 1: but we have eighty two percent of the tickets eighty
20:35
Speaker 1: three percent of the cash on the Celtics. The number
20:38
Speaker 1: did drop from ten and a half. I think I
20:40
Speaker 1: would lean towards taking the points with the Suns though,
20:43
Speaker 1: And this is another Celtic total here. It's very low
20:46
Speaker 1: at two thirteen. Celtics play at the slowest pace in
20:50
Speaker 1: the NBA and they're one of the best defenses, so
20:53
Speaker 1: they do tend to have a lot of low totals
20:55
Speaker 1: in their games. Now. I don't know if there's any
20:57
Speaker 1: sort of injuries situation or anything like that going on here,
21:01
Speaker 1: except obviously Vucevic is out. Hopefully he gets back for
21:05
Speaker 1: the Celtics playoff run man, and then of course well
21:08
Speaker 1: Brooks we know is out for the Suns. He's already
21:10
Speaker 1: been out for a while, So no real change in
21:13
Speaker 1: injury status for these two teams, I should say, But yeah,
21:17
Speaker 1: for me slightly towards Phoenix plus the points there by
21:20
Speaker 1: the way, I did forget to mention Golden State very
21:23
Speaker 1: bound on the road. Washington eleven of their fifteen wins
21:27
Speaker 1: have coming home, so or excuse me, eleven of sixteen
21:30
Speaker 1: Washington has been better at home, So I forgot to
21:33
Speaker 1: point that out. And you only need them to cover
21:36
Speaker 1: in that one. Memphis at Chicago. Memphis just lost to Detroit,
21:41
Speaker 1: but it was not a close game. This one. I
21:43
Speaker 1: actually considered putting this on my card. Memphis, you might
21:47
Speaker 1: see effort out of them for once, because they've lost
21:49
Speaker 1: seven straight. I mean, they've had a couple of days off.
21:51
Speaker 1: Now try to break that losing momentum. Problem is, I
21:54
Speaker 1: know they do have bigger games on deck Denver, Boston.
21:57
Speaker 1: So a team like Memphis, when they don't have anything
22:00
Speaker 1: have to play for, you got to figure out, like
22:01
Speaker 1: what type of game is? What type of game are
22:03
Speaker 1: they even gonna get up for? You know, like they
22:05
Speaker 1: might not get up for a game. And it's a
22:07
Speaker 1: bad team like Chicago, they might be, you know, just
22:10
Speaker 1: saving that effort for Denver, Boston, who knows, you know,
22:15
Speaker 1: And so we'll see Memphis playing with a lot of
22:17
Speaker 1: backups here. Chicago is in a pretty bad spot though.
22:20
Speaker 1: They're returning home from a road trip where they went
22:22
Speaker 1: to the Pacific Coast. They've been gone since Thursday, March fifth,
22:26
Speaker 1: So this is the worst return home spot in the
22:28
Speaker 1: NBA today. And even though they've been losing, they put
22:32
Speaker 1: in an okay effort in their last couple of games
22:34
Speaker 1: against the LA teams. They do have Toronto, Cleveland, Houston, Philadelphia,
22:38
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City all on deck, which are all kind of
22:41
Speaker 1: bigger opponents. So this might be a bad spot, might
22:44
Speaker 1: be a distracted spot for Chicago. They have a couple
22:47
Speaker 1: of days off in here, but returning home cross country
22:50
Speaker 1: basically like that, you know, after being away for a while,
22:54
Speaker 1: you got stuff to do back at home. It could
22:55
Speaker 1: be a distraction. So this is my second strongest opinion
22:59
Speaker 1: in the NBA today. I like the Grizzlies. The Bulls
23:03
Speaker 1: are a six point favorite here. Fifty six percent of ticket,
23:06
Speaker 1: seventy six percent of the cash on the Grizzlies. That's
23:09
Speaker 1: the way I would lean. I would take the points
23:10
Speaker 1: with the Grizzlies. That one is that one almost made
23:13
Speaker 1: my card. And then we have Dallas at New Orleans
23:18
Speaker 1: right off the bat. This number looks ridiculous with New Orleans, Like,
23:22
Speaker 1: who's New Orleans gonna be laying eight and a half.
23:25
Speaker 1: But that's how bad Dallas is right now. I guess
23:28
Speaker 1: New Orleans is laying points against them. Dallas just beat
23:31
Speaker 1: Cleveland last night, believe it or not, on the road
23:34
Speaker 1: as like probably sixteen point underdogs. Ridiculous upset win for
23:39
Speaker 1: Dallas last night. I mean, I'm happy about that. I
23:41
Speaker 1: just wish to the Knicks also lost big win for
23:45
Speaker 1: Dallas last night. Now they're on a back to back.
23:47
Speaker 1: They're actually playing a fourth game in five days, by
23:51
Speaker 1: the way, and a fifth game in seven days, sixth
23:57
Speaker 1: game in nine days, and a seventh game in a
23:59
Speaker 1: leven days, in an eighth game in twelve days. This
24:03
Speaker 1: is an insane scheduling spot here in all of those
24:06
Speaker 1: in different cities, by the way, This scheduling spot for
24:09
Speaker 1: Dallas is really really bad. And they do have Atlanta
24:13
Speaker 1: on deck, who did just beat them, So yeah, this
24:16
Speaker 1: is I mean, basically it's a sandwich spot. No time off.
24:19
Speaker 1: It's a huge letdown spot. The schedule has been crammed,
24:23
Speaker 1: so obviously I do like New Orleans here, but the
24:25
Speaker 1: problem is New Orleans is actually coming off a huge
24:28
Speaker 1: game too, where they just went to Houston and almost
24:31
Speaker 1: beat Houston on the road. They played Houston really well
24:33
Speaker 1: pretty much every time they played them this year on
24:36
Speaker 1: New Orleans is covered I think every time against Houston
24:38
Speaker 1: and almost won every game outright, and did win one
24:42
Speaker 1: of the games out right. So I worry about New
24:45
Speaker 1: Orleans a little bit just because they are coming off
24:47
Speaker 1: that big game against Houston. They are the much more
24:49
Speaker 1: rested team though, and they are back at home after
24:52
Speaker 1: only going to Houston, which is not a big trip
24:54
Speaker 1: from New Orleans. So obviously I would lean to the
24:57
Speaker 1: Pelicans here, but laying eight and a half is a
25:00
Speaker 1: little bit crazy. The line is like obviously jacked up,
25:05
Speaker 1: like because the MAVs played last night, because the MAVs
25:07
Speaker 1: have no rest, so you know that line has to
25:10
Speaker 1: be like juiced a little bit towards the Pelicans. So
25:12
Speaker 1: I think you're not really getting a ton of line
25:15
Speaker 1: value there on the Pelicans. Of tickets, only fifty two
25:19
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the MAVs. So it does
25:22
Speaker 1: look like the market indicators are saying to lay the
25:25
Speaker 1: points of the Pelicans. I agree with that. That's the
25:29
Speaker 1: way I would do it. I mean, I kind of
25:31
Speaker 1: I wanted to do it because I saw the spot
25:33
Speaker 1: that the MAVs were in. I was like, holy crap,
25:35
Speaker 1: that's a terrible spot. But I just can't do it
25:37
Speaker 1: because the Pelicans are not really in the greatest spot either,
25:41
Speaker 1: but they do have way more rest because they've been
25:43
Speaker 1: off for a couple of days. So that would be
25:45
Speaker 1: Pelicans or pass for me. There. Lakers are at the Rockets.
25:50
Speaker 1: The Lakers are coming off a big overtime win against Denver.
25:53
Speaker 1: Now I don't think they're gonna overlook Houston. This is
25:55
Speaker 1: also a big game. It's on Peacock and NBC Sports.
25:58
Speaker 1: But you know, the Lakers are gonna have to put
26:02
Speaker 1: in a huge effort two times in a row, and
26:04
Speaker 1: they usually really struggle against Denver. So that was a
26:06
Speaker 1: pretty big win for them. Going on the road though,
26:09
Speaker 1: we'll see what they could do here. Houston is very
26:11
Speaker 1: very good at home twenty three and eight at home.
26:14
Speaker 1: Lakers have been okay on the road nineteen and thirteen,
26:17
Speaker 1: but Houston definitely very very good at home. Houston is
26:21
Speaker 1: coming up that game where they barely beat New Orleans.
26:23
Speaker 1: Like I said, they had come off a game against Denver.
26:27
Speaker 1: I know it was a blowout loss, but still the
26:29
Speaker 1: New Orleans game was sandwiched in between Denver and the Lakers,
26:33
Speaker 1: so I think they might have been looking ahead to
26:35
Speaker 1: this Laker game. It's on TV. Houston has more rest here.
26:40
Speaker 1: You know, they're coming off a bad performance. The Lakers
26:43
Speaker 1: are coming off a really good performance. So I like
26:45
Speaker 1: Houston in this game. You know, I consider putting this
26:48
Speaker 1: on my card too. I do like this one. Rockets
26:51
Speaker 1: are up to a two and a half point favorite, though,
26:53
Speaker 1: so he missed out on the one and a half.
26:55
Speaker 1: You could try to go money line on Houston too,
26:57
Speaker 1: if you wanted to go that way with it. Lakers
27:00
Speaker 1: four percent of the tickets, so public seems to want
27:02
Speaker 1: the Lakers right now because they're hot. But I think
27:05
Speaker 1: the Rockets are actually the slightly better team here, So
27:07
Speaker 1: I think even the two and a half is like,
27:10
Speaker 1: you know, the two and a half is probably right
27:12
Speaker 1: where the numbers should be. For the most part. Fifty
27:14
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Rockets, so the market
27:17
Speaker 1: read is saying rockets. I agree with that. I'm worried
27:20
Speaker 1: about the market reading that Warriors Wizards game right now,
27:22
Speaker 1: by the way, but we're doing it anyway. Man. I
27:26
Speaker 1: know it's a return home spot. Like it's one of
27:28
Speaker 1: the only times you'll ever see me give you a
27:30
Speaker 1: team on the return home. Maybe I should be staying
27:34
Speaker 1: away completely, but hopefully we can get it. Man, It's
27:37
Speaker 1: start turning this thing around a little bit after some
27:40
Speaker 1: lackluster days. After we had a really good Friday. I
27:43
Speaker 1: believe it was Friday, all right. San Antonio and the
27:46
Speaker 1: Clippers is the extra game if you want to call
27:49
Speaker 1: it that on Peacock as well, and NBC Sports Extra,
27:53
Speaker 1: So I didn't even know that was a thing. That
27:55
Speaker 1: might just be like NBC Sports Online or whatever. So
28:00
Speaker 1: this game is gonna overlap with the game I just
28:03
Speaker 1: talked about, and they're both on the same networks. San
28:05
Speaker 1: Antonio just beat Charlotte. That was a loss I gave
28:08
Speaker 1: it on Saturday. I apologize. I thought it was not
28:11
Speaker 1: the greatest spot for san Antonio. Now I think san
28:15
Speaker 1: Antonio is going to take the Clippers seriously because the Clippers,
28:18
Speaker 1: which was a win for me, by the way back
28:20
Speaker 1: on March sixth here on the show, the Clippers went
28:23
Speaker 1: into San Antonio and almost beat them, almost clipped the Spurs.
28:28
Speaker 1: The Clippers blew a massive lead in that game. They
28:30
Speaker 1: were winning almost the whole game. It's crazy that the
28:33
Speaker 1: Spurs wound up some my winning that game. Clippers still
28:36
Speaker 1: covered for us there. I almost said the Lakers. The
28:38
Speaker 1: Clippers still covered there. So San Antonio, because they know
28:42
Speaker 1: what just happened against the Clippers, I think they will
28:45
Speaker 1: take them seriously this time going out on the road here.
28:48
Speaker 1: They don't have a bigger game up next to gainst Sacramento.
28:51
Speaker 1: The Clippers should get up for this game too. They
28:53
Speaker 1: did just lose a win streak though, but they're staying
28:56
Speaker 1: at home. It was a bad loss to Sacramento, so
28:59
Speaker 1: sometimes you lose a win streak, it'll hang you over.
29:01
Speaker 1: But I think they were looking ahead to the San
29:03
Speaker 1: Antonio game, so I think you're gonna get an effort
29:05
Speaker 1: out of both teams here. The money is all coming
29:09
Speaker 1: in on the Clippers. The Spurs are up to nine
29:11
Speaker 1: and a half, But the reason for that jump from
29:14
Speaker 1: six and a half to nine and a half is
29:15
Speaker 1: because Kawhi Leonard is out for the Clippers. He got
29:18
Speaker 1: hurt in that game against Sacramento, So the Clippers are
29:22
Speaker 1: actually in an injured player spot now. So you're actually
29:24
Speaker 1: getting extra value on the Clippers now because the line
29:27
Speaker 1: is up to nine and a half. I always talk
29:29
Speaker 1: about this. When a team's star player goes down, you'll
29:32
Speaker 1: get extra value on that team, and in that first
29:35
Speaker 1: game specifically, you get a better number, and the team
29:38
Speaker 1: will usually give you a huge effort to try to
29:41
Speaker 1: compensate for that guy being out. So I think that
29:44
Speaker 1: is what we might see from the Clippers here. Fifty
29:47
Speaker 1: percent of the tickets are on the Spurs, seventy four
29:49
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Clippers. I agree with
29:51
Speaker 1: the Clippers in that one. I agree with the market
29:53
Speaker 1: read in that one, and that's it. Those are the
29:57
Speaker 1: games to name him. I think we hit them all right.
30:01
Speaker 1: I'll be back, you know, to fill out my women's
30:03
Speaker 1: racket at some point today, so you know, subscribe, get
30:06
Speaker 1: those notifications. The plays today are the Calgary Flames split
30:10
Speaker 1: bet puck line, money line, and unfortunately the Washington Wizards
30:14
Speaker 1: into return home spot. I just don't think they're gonna
30:18
Speaker 1: overlook the spot. Man, So and it's a horrible spot
30:21
Speaker 1: for the Warriors, so we're doing it. Those are the
30:24
Speaker 1: two plays today. Learn to tone on Twitter, learn a
30:27
Speaker 1: tone on Instagram, like subscribe to the channel here, give me,
30:30
Speaker 1: you know, good replies whatever. You'll get the notifications when
30:34
Speaker 1: I go live, which sometimes is a little bit random.
30:36
Speaker 1: We'll do the women's bracket because it matters a lot less.
30:39
Speaker 1: It's easier to fill out just based on who's better.
30:41
Speaker 1: So we're gonna do that at some point today. I
30:44
Speaker 1: got to get my stuff in order. I still probably
30:46
Speaker 1: should bring up the betting odds and look at the
30:49
Speaker 1: some of the analytics sites and look at the actual
30:51
Speaker 1: percentage because I really don't follow the women so I
30:53
Speaker 1: don't really know, but I know Yukon is definitely the
30:55
Speaker 1: best team. I do know that this year, So we'll
30:58
Speaker 1: take a look at that. We'll do it, and then
31:01
Speaker 1: we'll use a little bit of game theory, and I
31:03
Speaker 1: suppose as well, and then the men's bracket will come,
31:06
Speaker 1: you know, after I set things up and have more analysis,
31:10
Speaker 1: because I go a little bit more crazy with the
31:11
Speaker 1: men's bracket. Although it looks like the men's is headed
31:14
Speaker 1: kind of in that direction where the better teams are
31:17
Speaker 1: all gonna wind up rising to the top, you know,
31:19
Speaker 1: with the nil and the transfer stuff. So at least
31:22
Speaker 1: the power conference teams are a lot better than the
31:26
Speaker 1: smaller conferences. Now there's a growing gap between those, so
31:29
Speaker 1: you know, so I am gonna have a lot of
31:31
Speaker 1: favorites and the men's bracket this year, which you know,
31:34
Speaker 1: I know it's not fun, but we're trying to be
31:36
Speaker 1: right here, you know, we're trying to win baby. So yeah,
31:42
Speaker 1: we're also on the audio with this show Apple Spotify,
31:45
Speaker 1: so check that out. Give me good reviews over there,
31:48
Speaker 1: listen over there. Covered in yuca is the yuke channel
31:50
Speaker 1: on YouTube. You can check that out. You covers patreon,
31:53
Speaker 1: dot com, slash learn to toe if you want to
31:55
Speaker 1: throw me some support, get some extra stuff that I
31:57
Speaker 1: don't really pay attention to, and then Loser Casts will
32:01
Speaker 1: be back tomorrow in the new episode tomorrow night. That's
32:05
Speaker 1: gonna do it. Peace, guys,