Latest / Inside Politics / ‘Killing season’ is over, so what will Anthony Albanese do with this moment?

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‘Killing season’ is over, so what will Anthony Albanese do with this moment? · Inside Politics

0:01
S1: From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
0:03
S1: This is inside politics. I'm Nick Bonyhady, acting federal editor,
0:08
S1: and I'm filling in for Jacqueline Maley. It's Friday, July 18th. Well,
0:13
S1: here we are. A new term of Parliament begins next
0:16
S1: week in earnest. There'll be fresh faces and maybe some
0:20
S1: fresh ideas. So will the government use its massive majority
0:24
S1: to press ahead with major reforms in housing or tax?
0:28
S1: And how will opposition leader Sussan Ley and her team
0:31
S1: rebuild their battered party from the devastating election defeat that
0:34
S1: they suffered in May? But before we get to that,
0:37
S1: the news this week has been dominated by Prime Minister
0:39
S1: Anthony Albanese's trip to China, which has been full of
0:42
S1: stage managed warmth. He's been treated to a concert in
0:46
S1: the Great Hall, with covers of Australian classics from Paul
0:49
S1: Kelly to Midnight Oil, and got close to a panda.
0:52
S1: But with our very own Paul Cicala travelling with the
0:56
S1: Prime Minister, we'll have a couple of special guests. First up,
0:59
S1: Nine's political editor, Charles Croucher and later CBD columnist Kishore
1:04
S1: Napier Rahman. Welcome. Thanks. Now, Charles, it feels like half
1:08
S1: the press gallery is in China this week. There's been banquets, handshakes,
1:13
S1: a trip to the Great Wall just now, some cuddly
1:16
S1: pandas and an unfortunate run in with some security personnel.
1:20
S1: What's it been like for the journalists on the ground
1:23
S1: in China?
1:23
S2: Well, look, the one thing they've had this trip, which
1:26
S2: is probably in contrast to the rest of the prime
1:28
S2: ministerial trips we get, is a bit of time in
1:31
S2: six days on the ground. I think it's roughly six days. Um,
1:35
S2: is an awfully long time for an international trip. I
1:37
S2: can't remember the last time the Prime Minister spent that
1:39
S2: long in one country without having to jump around or
1:41
S2: move around. I think might have been the Queen's funeral,
1:44
S2: so there would have been a better understanding from the
1:46
S2: reporters over there of what's going on. Um, you're stretching
1:49
S2: out a trip that didn't have the importance that perhaps
1:53
S2: the last two trips to China have had because the
1:57
S2: relationship was so soured. So to have things back on track,
2:00
S2: it's it's a nice freedom to actually explore some of
2:02
S2: the issues because there are lots. Yeah, we saw the
2:05
S2: the run in with the security guard. I think that's
2:06
S2: a pretty good reflection of maybe the lighter side of
2:09
S2: life over there.
2:09
S3: Behind me, the local authorities, they are surrounding the Australian
2:13
S3: press after we filmed our initial piece to cameras there
2:16
S3: saying that we can't leave the area, and they're also
2:18
S3: asking if they can take our camera.
2:19
S2: Because I'm sure if it was a Chinese reporter doing, um,
2:23
S2: reporting at the same place without permission, the response would
2:27
S2: be very different. And, um, it's a good reminder of that.
2:31
S2: You know, this is a still a regime that, um,
2:35
S2: has some pretty contrasting values to Australia and even America's
2:38
S2: when it comes to the freedom of the press. But
2:40
S2: on the same note, the fact these trips are going
2:42
S2: on is a good sign for the relationship because it
2:44
S2: needed to start back up again.
2:46
S1: And Anthony Albanese seems to have had a fantastic time there.
2:50
S1: Duchess by some of his favourite music playing in the
2:53
S1: Great Hall.
2:54
S4: Uh, played, uh, a different version of, uh, Paul Kelly's
2:59
S4: to her door of Midnight Oil's power and the passion.
3:03
S1: That's quite a contrast to the reception that the Morrison
3:06
S1: government got after. It was quite assertive about China's foreign
3:10
S1: policy and about the origins of the coronavirus. What's really
3:15
S1: been the tone of this?
3:17
S2: Well, it's different. I mean, it is clearly a different
3:19
S2: relationship than the one that the Morrison government had. Now,
3:22
S2: whether that is because the person at the chop changed
3:26
S2: or time got in the way. Who knows? And we
3:29
S2: won't know. But President XI, I think, called it a
3:33
S2: setback the way he sort of described the Morrison government
3:37
S2: and their relationship during that time.
3:39
S5: Good to see you.
3:40
S6: Inside the Great Hall of the people, a prime minister
3:43
S6: and a president of two countries. Briefly. Foes. Now friends.
3:49
S7: The China-Australia relationship has rose from the setback and turned around.
3:54
S2: So having that change in power here in Canberra allowed
3:58
S2: the reset, I think probably. Well, China thought it was
4:01
S2: really putting the thumb on Australia when it came to
4:03
S2: some of those tariffs. While it's affected individual industries, they
4:06
S2: were able to find other markets largely. You know the
4:08
S2: wine guys are still doing it pretty tough. Um, but
4:12
S2: it sort of stress test Australia when it comes to
4:15
S2: our ability to cope with tariffs, which is coming in
4:17
S2: handy now. There are still obvious issues in the relationship
4:22
S2: on the defense side and some of the things in
4:25
S2: the Indo-Pacific, but for trade, at least, it's getting back
4:29
S2: on the right foot and hopefully building up that market again,
4:32
S2: not just for those industries that were affected. You know,
4:35
S2: the crayfish, beef, certainly wine, but but for other industries
4:38
S2: as well, because at the time when we might need
4:40
S2: new markets and so might China.
4:44
S1: So the trade relationship has stabilised. The bonhomie of the
4:49
S1: trip was on full display in all those ways we
4:52
S1: talked about, but there's been no really significant trade deals
4:58
S1: out of this trip. There's been some memoranda signed an
5:01
S1: opposition Susan Lee and her colleagues have been accusing the
5:05
S1: Prime minister of being a bit self-indulgent and not walking
5:08
S1: away with tangible outcomes.
5:10
S8: He didn't get the assurances that he should about the
5:15
S8: unacceptable nature of the circumnavigation of Australia by the Chinese
5:21
S8: Communist Party's navy warships in February.
5:25
S1: What do you make of that criticism?
5:27
S2: Well, I think the argument will be he's walking away
5:30
S2: with jobs, and that's the argument the Prime Minister will make.
5:33
S2: And a benefit would be to the Prime Minister, but
5:35
S2: certainly not to the rest of the country, is we
5:37
S2: had the unemployment numbers come in this week, and they
5:40
S2: were much higher, sort of 4.3% seasonally adjusted. So that
5:43
S2: means that we need to find the jobs, you know,
5:46
S2: full time positions are falling. So stabilizing that relationship. I
5:49
S2: think this is something the Albanese government realised they're on
5:53
S2: a winner with this one. When it comes to Pacific
5:54
S2: and getting China back on track, everyone sees it. And
5:57
S2: while I think most Australians would look at some of
5:59
S2: the actions of China, particularly the PLA, in the waters
6:03
S2: to our north and around Australia. They realise that we
6:06
S2: can sell them lobsters and wine and, um, iron ore.
6:12
S2: It's not going to change the approach that China has
6:16
S2: to the region. So let's sell it to them, take
6:19
S2: the money and fund our defence, and also open that
6:21
S2: line of communication, which might be the way of changing
6:24
S2: the way China approaches the region and the world. At
6:27
S2: least you've got the line of communication there. So, eh,
6:29
S2: you can influence maybe you know, that's probably the optimistic view.
6:33
S2: But worst case scenario, if something does go wrong, you
6:36
S2: can have that line of communication that can prevent, um, miscalculation,
6:41
S2: a misstep by someone on the Chinese front from turning
6:44
S2: into a war.
6:45
S1: You're talking about the PLA. That's the People's Liberation Army
6:49
S1: and their vessels that circumnavigated Australia and conducted live firing
6:52
S1: exercises with very little notice between here and New Zealand,
6:57
S1: one of many points of tension in the relationship. Do
6:59
S1: you think we'll ever go beyond this language of Stabilization
7:03
S1: into a warmer partnership? Or is this really as far
7:07
S1: as we're likely to travel?
7:08
S2: Well, certainly the the approach from China has been they
7:11
S2: want to see it further. And this was more generous
7:13
S2: in language than I think they've been since, probably Malcolm
7:17
S2: Turnbull or even Tony Abbott, when the relationship was really
7:20
S2: singing in that free trade agreement was signed up. There
7:24
S2: is still the obvious, um, impediment, which is America, right?
7:29
S2: Which I'm sure you know, everyone's spoken about here and elsewhere,
7:33
S2: that if things continue to get more and more tense
7:38
S2: between America and China, well, then Australia's more and more
7:41
S2: forced to pick a side. And that won't be China.
7:44
S2: So the fact that Australia hasn't been forced to pick
7:47
S2: a side, despite the best efforts of some in the
7:49
S2: white House this week.
7:51
S9: Tempo of the visit was disrupted by news from DC,
7:54
S9: the Financial Times reporting top Pentagon official Elbridge Colby has
7:58
S9: been pushing Australia and Japan to say whether they'd assist
8:02
S9: the US if it went to war with China over Taiwan.
8:06
S2: Australia's managed to, as much as it can, not wade
8:10
S2: into that conflict at the moment and try and walk
8:13
S2: both sides. How long you can do it? We don't know,
8:15
S2: but as long as we can, I think Australia will.
8:18
S2: And even even Susan Lee and Angus Taylor recognised that
8:22
S2: and said that this week.
8:24
S1: Albaneses trip to China wrapped up on Thursday. He's back
8:28
S1: in Australia today, Friday and straight back into Parliament next week.
8:34
S1: What does he face in that sitting period? The coalition
8:38
S1: are trying to rebuild from an absolute walloping at the
8:40
S1: last election. Labor's got a remarkably large agenda. Can we
8:44
S1: expect to see them be more optimistic in that first
8:48
S1: sitting week?
8:49
S2: Yeah, I would assume so. And I would assume there
8:50
S2: is a stability, um, that this government has that no
8:54
S2: government's really had since probably John Howard. Now, um, I
9:02
S2: was doing a talk with some, um, year five kids
9:05
S2: doing government studies the other day. And one of them asked,
9:07
S2: you know, what's been the one bit of policy we've got, right?
9:10
S2: And I was sort of trying to think of something
9:11
S2: good for them. And it was really hard. And I
9:14
S2: realized that for their whole life they've had this instability. Right?
9:17
S2: We had Rudd, but Rudd came in with all this
9:19
S2: hope and promise. Um, and then was hit with the GFC.
9:24
S2: And then Julia Gillard, then Julia Gillard always had to
9:26
S2: look over her shoulder at Kevin Rudd. And then in
9:29
S2: comes Tony Abbott. And again he had Malcolm Turnbull. Malcolm
9:32
S2: Turnbull had Tony Abbott. And then he goes Scott Morrison
9:34
S2: comes in. It was what the Betoota advocate called the
9:36
S2: night watchman. So he was just there for a short time.
9:39
S2: Then he wins the surprise election. All of a sudden
9:41
S2: there's a mandate but there's also Covid. And so that
9:43
S2: robs him of that opportunity. Anthony Albanese takes over. It's
9:47
S2: a slim majority. He's got inflation. Uh, he got hit
9:51
S2: with cost of living and the voice. And so now,
9:53
S2: for the first time in those kids lives, and for
9:55
S2: a lot of people, there is a stability that would
9:57
S2: allow a government to plan, maybe not three years in events,
10:01
S2: but six years in advance, which is certainly the way
10:03
S2: they're talking, and some of the departmental staff are talking
10:06
S2: as well. So if Labour can't take this opportunity, they're
10:10
S2: never going to have an opportunity. Mhm. Um and never
10:13
S2: take one. This is the moment for them. And unlike
10:17
S2: almost all of his predecessors this century, Anthony Albanese isn't
10:21
S2: looking over his shoulder at who's plotting and who's thinking
10:24
S2: about rolling him because they've all lived through the Rudd-gillard-rudd
10:29
S2: years and how tough that's been. He's not worried about
10:31
S2: a by election or a state election. There is a
10:33
S2: freedom there. Now, whether they take advantage, we don't know.
10:36
S2: But this is the opportunity for anyone to do that.
10:39
S1: And in that first sitting week, we're looking at potentially
10:42
S1: legislation on improving safety standards in the childcare industry, cutting
10:47
S1: hex and maybe building towards the roundtable on productivity that
10:53
S1: the treasurer is focusing on. What's the opposition going to
10:57
S1: be doing after their massive battering loss?
10:59
S2: Well, that's the big question, right? What does that look
11:01
S2: like and what does how does the opposition go about opposing. Um,
11:06
S2: Anthony Albanese was pretty successful, as it turns out. I
11:08
S2: guess the election would say was successful. You know, um,
11:12
S2: when it comes to brandishing Peter Dutton for his negativity
11:15
S2: and that idea of the coalition that's gone now, um,
11:18
S2: what Sussan Ley does as opposition leader, where she picks
11:22
S2: and the issue she chooses to push back on will
11:24
S2: be interesting. The election is probably glossed over. The fact
11:28
S2: there is still a cost of living struggle in Australia
11:31
S2: and people are still doing it. Tough real wages on
11:33
S2: the way up. Um, inflation is down, but still, we're
11:37
S2: still catching up from a long time of hurt, um,
11:40
S2: in the last few years. So that would still be
11:43
S2: the main issue as it was before the election. It
11:46
S2: should still be now. As for beyond that, you know,
11:49
S2: that's for the opposition to decide. It's a greatly diminished opposition.
11:54
S2: You have to work out what the tactics are, what
11:56
S2: the the character of the Liberal Party is. They're doing
11:59
S2: a review and listening tours, a couple of reviews internally
12:02
S2: to figure that out. And if you can't figure that
12:04
S2: out amongst your own party room, it's hard to figure
12:06
S2: it out in the parliament. So it's going to rely
12:08
S2: a lot of people almost playing it by ear, and
12:11
S2: that can be risky. Or it can be the pressure
12:14
S2: test that's needed to to find out what this group
12:17
S2: of liberals, and therefore the Liberal Party more broadly, might
12:20
S2: stand for.
12:22
S1: Charles, thank you very much for coming on the podcast.
12:24
S1: Thanks for having me. I believe it's potentially also happy birthday.
12:27
S2: Yeah. Thank you. Thank you. Nice way to spend it.
12:33
S1: Now I want to bring in Kishore Napier Rahman who
12:35
S1: heads these mastheads daily column CBD, covering all inside information
12:40
S1: on people in power in the country. Kishore, welcome to
12:43
S1: the podcast.
12:44
S10: G'day, Nick. Great to be here.
12:46
S1: You're not in the Canberra bubble, so as a bit
12:48
S1: of an outsider looking in, are you excited about Parliament restarting?
12:53
S1: Is that a great source for your column?
12:55
S10: Look, I might not be in the Canberra bubble, but
12:58
S10: a big part of my daily life is to try
13:00
S10: to make the Canberra bubble and to make all the
13:02
S10: things that happen in the corridors of power exciting for
13:05
S10: the average reader. So something I'm really looking out for is, well,
13:09
S10: we've got a big, big change in Parliament. You've got
13:12
S10: a new class of fresh faced MPs coming in. Um,
13:16
S10: and something I'm interested in is not only figuring out
13:18
S10: who the new kind of rising stars in federal politics are,
13:22
S10: but but who are the new kind of mavericks coming
13:24
S10: onto the political scene? I mean, say what you will
13:27
S10: about their politics, but people like Barnaby Joyce and Bob
13:30
S10: Katter are kind of getting on. They're not going to
13:32
S10: be around forever. So who we're going to be the
13:34
S10: new kind of colourful, um, slightly, uh, juicy faces who
13:39
S10: are going to be landing on the political scene. What
13:42
S10: are they going to look like? What are they going
13:43
S10: to act like? Where is the, uh, colour and excitement
13:46
S10: going to come from in Canberra?
13:48
S1: I'd hate to dob anyone the next Barnaby Joyce or
13:51
S1: Bob Katter because they're such irreplaceable figures. But if you
13:55
S1: had to nominate some people who will bring a bit
13:57
S1: of colour or movement to Parliament, who would that be?
13:59
S10: Yeah, look, Bob and Barnaby are. They don't make them
14:02
S10: like that anymore. And, uh, for better or for worse,
14:05
S10: they're both two of a kind. Um, people that are
14:08
S10: will be worth keeping an eye on. I mean, Charlotte
14:10
S10: Walker has become Australia's youngest ever senator. Um, elected as
14:13
S10: a labor senator for South Australia at the ripe old
14:15
S10: age of 21. Um, and, you know, federal politics in
14:20
S10: Australia is very rarely a game that, uh, young people
14:25
S10: are well represented in. So it'll be fascinating to see a,
14:28
S10: a Zuma in parliament, a 21 year old in parliament
14:30
S10: and how she fares. That could be really interesting. Um,
14:34
S10: on the labor side, you've got figures like Sam Ray
14:36
S10: and Daniel Merlino moving into the kind of ministry or
14:38
S10: the outer ministry, I think, who have both been touted
14:40
S10: as party rising stars who have broken in, um, they're
14:44
S10: kind of considered the real future crop of leadership material
14:48
S10: on the labor side. So it'll be interesting to see
14:50
S10: how some of those new figures fare as well. But
14:52
S10: beyond that, I'm also really intrigued as to what happens, uh,
14:57
S10: to the Liberal Party. Now, I've been reporting a lot
14:59
S10: on the kind of internal divisions within that party over
15:02
S10: the last three years, and it will be fascinating to
15:04
S10: see how it operates under Susan Lee's leadership now. Um,
15:08
S10: Lee obviously became Liberal leader by about, like four votes.
15:12
S10: Two of them. One is Giselle Kapp. Tyrion, who, barring
15:15
S10: some kind of courtroom voodoo, is not going to be
15:16
S10: an MP. And the other is Holly Hughes, whose term
15:19
S10: in Parliament is finished up and she was replaced by
15:21
S10: someone loyal to Lee's rival, Angus Taylor. So how does
15:25
S10: Susan keep together a party room that's full of bruised
15:28
S10: egos and miserable ghosts, and chart a path forward to
15:31
S10: the Liberal Party? Does she even stick around to the
15:33
S10: next election? She's been surprising people who've underestimated her for
15:36
S10: a long time, so it'll be fascinating to see how
15:39
S10: the opposition kind of picks up after that.
15:42
S1: As well as those big players in their own right.
15:45
S1: You've been doing very persistent coverage of the Svengalis who
15:51
S1: run politicians offices and their media behind the scenes, and
15:55
S1: in particular in the Prime Minister's office. Can you tell
15:58
S1: us about some of the notable moves that you've been
16:01
S1: tracking over the last few weeks and months?
16:03
S10: Look, a politician is only as good as their backroom operators,
16:08
S10: and in the period after an election, as is so
16:11
S10: often the case, there's been a big, big turnover in
16:14
S10: terms of a lot of those backroom operators moving on
16:17
S10: for greener pastures. And that's been particularly true, in fact,
16:20
S10: in the office of the Prime minister. So Catherine Murphy,
16:23
S10: a very senior figure in the Prime Minister's office, who
16:26
S10: was obviously familiar to people as the political editor of
16:29
S10: the Guardian Australia, well known and respected journalist, often on insiders,
16:33
S10: joined Albaneses office as a press secretary last year, departed
16:37
S10: shortly after the election. There have been a few other
16:39
S10: quite senior departures from Albaneses office, but also across the ministry,
16:43
S10: Penny Wong's chief of staff and head of media. Moving on.
16:46
S10: So a lot of people kind of leaving after the election. Now,
16:50
S10: in some ways you might think, well, you've worked so
16:53
S10: hard to win this election campaign. It's like making a
16:55
S10: putting all this time and effort into making a delicious
16:58
S10: cake and then deciding you don't want to eat the cake.
17:01
S10: You're going to go for some ice cream or something instead.
17:03
S10: To use a slightly tortured analogy, It's strange to see
17:07
S10: all these people leaving after such a big election victory
17:09
S10: on the one hand, but on the other. Look, a
17:10
S10: lot of people are pretty burnt out. It's a grueling, grueling,
17:14
S10: high pressure period they've been through. And, you know, you
17:16
S10: get a better payout if you leave right after the
17:19
S10: election as a staffer. And for a lot of them
17:21
S10: who come in as these fresh faced true believers, after
17:24
S10: doing your time in the the kind of pressure cooker
17:27
S10: of politics you can move on and double your salary
17:30
S10: working in government relations and lobbying. So, you know, there
17:33
S10: are all kinds of reasons why people are leaving elections.
17:35
S10: Bring around refresh, not just in terms of who is
17:38
S10: sitting on the benches in Parliament, but who is working
17:40
S10: behind the scenes. It's it's really often a young person's job.
17:43
S10: I mean, you don't see too many people over the
17:46
S10: age of 35 doing it because it is often quite
17:49
S10: thankless and fast paced and high pressure. So there is
17:52
S10: always like a lot of churn. Um, but, you know,
17:55
S10: when experience departs, when it moves on, um, everyone's got
17:58
S10: to find a way to rebuild. And I think with
18:01
S10: Labour in such a kind of strong assailant position, there
18:05
S10: will be no shortage of young, fresh faced true believers
18:09
S10: ready to jump on the train.
18:11
S1: So are we essentially saying a generation of staffers hit
18:14
S1: middle age, have perhaps children and a mortgage, want to
18:17
S1: seek out a more stable life and better working hours?
18:21
S1: Or is this reflective of some kind of unusual level
18:25
S1: of dysfunction or personality clashes or anything like that within
18:30
S1: the government?
18:31
S10: Yeah, I think it's probably premature to to paint this
18:34
S10: as a sort of labour in crisis, internal turmoil kind
18:37
S10: of thing. I mean, there's a long history of Labour
18:39
S10: having internal crises while in government, but I think this
18:42
S10: one internally has been relatively stable. Um, that that is
18:46
S10: across government and within offices. I mean, there are always
18:49
S10: sort of tensions, there are always personality clashes. That is
18:52
S10: just a sort of stark reality of the job, especially
18:55
S10: somewhere as high pressure and as tense and as adversarial
18:59
S10: as federal politics. That's always going to happen. But I
19:02
S10: think it it is premature to say that this is
19:05
S10: a source or a cause of tension. That said, people
19:08
S10: have put to me that there has been maybe a
19:10
S10: slightly unusually high level of turnover in the Prime Minister's office,
19:13
S10: but but really it yeah, it, it's sort of a
19:16
S10: multitude of factors all kind of coming home to roost
19:19
S10: at the same time really, I would say.
19:23
S1: Kishore, thank you very much for joining the podcast.
19:25
S10: My pleasure.
19:28
S1: Today's episode was produced by Tammy Mills with technical assistance
19:31
S1: from Debbie Harrington and Chee Wong. To listen to our
19:34
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19:57
S1: I'm Nick Bonyhady. Thanks for listening.