Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Stealth Bear Market?📉Fear Rising, Alts Bleeding, AI Cracking👀
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Let's get into it today.
- 0:01Speaker 2: We could have a stealth bear market or a stealth
- 0:04Speaker 2: rally all playing at the same time. Before we do that,
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- 0:42Speaker 1: Let's get started.
- 0:43Speaker 2: I want to start with, of course, the fear and
- 0:45Speaker 2: greed for the traditional markets. This has been hovering into
- 0:49Speaker 2: the extreme fear zone all morning as we were recording
- 0:52Speaker 2: on this, holding at around 25%. It had bounced down,
- 0:55Speaker 2: I think, sub-25 just earlier. When you look at the
- 0:59Speaker 2: crypto market, a little bit different. It's setting in a
- 1:02Speaker 2: little bit better position, holding at a neutral position right
- 1:05Speaker 2: now at 48. And I don't know, are you guys
- 1:09Speaker 2: right now, if you look at the way you're making trades,
- 1:11Speaker 2: whether you're going into stocks, maybe you're buying gold and
- 1:13Speaker 2: or crypto and you're diversifying, tell me where you are
- 1:17Speaker 2: right now. Are you in more of a neutral mode
- 1:19Speaker 2: or more on a fearful mode in the markets?
- 1:23Speaker 1: Just hit it in the comments down below. I want
- 1:24Speaker 1: to kind of get your feedback.
- 1:26Speaker 2: Let's get into a clip here because this clip will
- 1:28Speaker 2: go into Gareth Soloway, who's been on the show many times,
- 1:31Speaker 2: talking about this is the month that makes or breaks it.
- 1:34Speaker 1: Take a look.
- 1:35Speaker 3: The month that breaks markets, the 1907 panic. This is
- 1:40Speaker 3: actually what triggered J.P. Morgan back in the day to
- 1:43Speaker 3: bail out the stock market and ultimately began the Federal Reserve, right? 1929,
- 1:48Speaker 3: Dow falls 89%, all right? Then you have 1987, Black Monday, 1989,
- 1:51Speaker 3: Friday the 13th, 1997, down 7.2%, trading halted. And 2008,
- 2:04Speaker 3: worst week ever on record, down 18%. This is when
- 2:08Speaker 3: Lehman failed, panic spreads, and everything changed. So bottom line
- 2:13Speaker 3: is what we know is October tends to be a
- 2:16Speaker 3: very violent and potentially negative month. And certainly what we've
- 2:21Speaker 3: seen thus far has set the possibility in motion we
- 2:25Speaker 3: could be on the verge of this. All right.
- 2:28Speaker 2: So a lot of people looking at this market right
- 2:31Speaker 2: now in two veins. You have some still believe this bull.
- 2:34Speaker 1: Market is holding.
- 2:35Speaker 2: And if you look at AI related stocks, you would
- 2:37Speaker 2: probably agree with that. Forty nine percent of the S
- 2:41Speaker 2: & P 500 right now above every bubble peak, except
- 2:44Speaker 2: for what happened during the railroads. This, of course, gets
- 2:48Speaker 2: into the issue of the centralization of where TradFi is
- 2:52Speaker 2: right now.
- 2:52Speaker 1: And that is anything that's AI. That's the trade.
- 2:56Speaker 2: The real question is, how does this play out? Because
- 2:57Speaker 2: you've got credit pressure markets coming in hard. The question
- 3:01Speaker 2: is how that plays into what the Fed is going
- 3:03Speaker 2: to do, not only in this month, but also in
- 3:06Speaker 2: December as we get into rate structures. And then you
- 3:10Speaker 2: look at this statement right here. And this is where
- 3:13Speaker 2: we get into this stealth bear market. And it might
- 3:16Speaker 2: be a historic opportunity. There's a couple of points within
- 3:19Speaker 2: this I want to highlight. We're now witnessing a historic
- 3:21Speaker 2: market paradox.
- 3:23Speaker 1: A bull bear market that is in play.
- 3:26Speaker 2: And within it, you can kind of see where we've
- 3:29Speaker 2: had hits, where the S & P has had its
- 3:32Speaker 2: record high, what we saw in terms of the bottom,
- 3:36Speaker 2: and then other key indicators right here. This was a
- 3:39Speaker 2: major component of the bullish thesis for equities. And this
- 3:43Speaker 2: all centers around investors expecting cheaper capital. And remember, this
- 3:46Speaker 2: is a big deal because if cheaper capital is truly
- 3:49Speaker 2: coming in, you'd have more investment and record capex by
- 3:53Speaker 2: tech companies. Not all of that is completely translated just yet.
- 3:57Speaker 2: All right, one other thing was this right here, that
- 3:59Speaker 2: that is the S & P should be above 9,000.
- 4:02Speaker 2: And that, of course, is providing that the war didn't happen, okay?
- 4:06Speaker 2: Nothing happened in the Middle East. Iran wasn't attacked. We
- 4:09Speaker 2: didn't have any of that occur. And oil prices were regular,
- 4:12Speaker 2: I guess. I don't necessarily agree with this. I'm not
- 4:15Speaker 2: sure that this would be a factor because I'm looking
- 4:18Speaker 2: at the way that the AI trade is playing out.
- 4:20Speaker 2: You would need much more broad participation in the rest
- 4:25Speaker 2: of the S & P 500. And I just don't
- 4:27Speaker 2: know that that would be the case. Software is already
- 4:29Speaker 2: taking a hit. So SaaS companies, I think you're going
- 4:31Speaker 2: to see a lot of companies in general because of
- 4:34Speaker 2: AI that will continue to see less performance. So the
- 4:37Speaker 2: real core is that AI has already been performing against
- 4:41Speaker 2: what's happening globally. Maybe it performs a little bit better,
- 4:45Speaker 2: but I don't see it at 9,000 for sure. All right,
- 4:48Speaker 2: this happened over the weekend. Putin floats a summit deal,
- 4:51Speaker 2: and this is coming in from both with Trump and Xi.
- 4:54Speaker 2: If this comes together and they can put a deal
- 4:56Speaker 2: together with the Ukrainians, this, of course, could change things
- 5:01Speaker 2: again more on a global macro side. Remember, Russia and
- 5:04Speaker 2: Ukraine both now harbingers of what's happening around energy as
- 5:09Speaker 2: almost as much as what's going on in Iran. And
- 5:13Speaker 2: one factor that has been played out here recently is
- 5:16Speaker 2: that Trump has continued to push Zelensky to.
- 5:18Speaker 1: Do a surrender. I just don't see that happening.
- 5:22Speaker 2: Now, could we see some sort of, you know, maybe
- 5:24Speaker 2: militarized zone or some detente at some point that would
- 5:27Speaker 2: kind of set this up? Maybe that would be the case.
- 5:30Speaker 2: But this will be interesting if this summit actually occurs. And,
- 5:34Speaker 2: you know, there's going to be some pressure here, obviously,
- 5:35Speaker 2: by China and Trump in general to kind of.
- 5:39Speaker 1: Get this done.
- 5:40Speaker 2: You have Tom Lee's tracker coming in. Oil is trading
- 5:42Speaker 2: at levels not seen since 2008 financial crisis. You know,
- 5:46Speaker 2: for you young people out there, that was the last
- 5:48Speaker 2: time that we really saw a major hit on the market.
- 5:51Speaker 2: And if you go back and look at what happened
- 5:53Speaker 2: in 2008, October 2007, actually, the 2008.
- 5:57Speaker 1: Was the year that we really started to see impact.
- 6:00Speaker 2: And I think that's the same addition that we're dealing
- 6:02Speaker 2: with right now is oil and its concern on where
- 6:06Speaker 2: inflation is playing out. Because remember, energy is is one
- 6:10Speaker 2: of the key things that's driving the core inflation. Now,
- 6:13Speaker 2: does that stick around if things kind of cool off
- 6:16Speaker 2: in the Middle East?
- 6:17Speaker 1: That's the real question.
- 6:18Speaker 2: Bitcoins, though, could be setting up for a coiling impact
- 6:22Speaker 2: on the market. If you look at a couple of
- 6:24Speaker 2: notices here on the Bollinger Bands, you'll see these touch points,
- 6:27Speaker 2: and we're seeming to come back in on them after
- 6:30Speaker 2: significant moves up in both of those last two pumps.
- 6:34Speaker 2: So maybe this is the time. I'd still defer a
- 6:38Speaker 2: little bit to what Gareth was saying is that October cycle,
- 6:41Speaker 2: because remember, this is still investors and you have to
- 6:44Speaker 2: be able to have something happen in the major market
- 6:47Speaker 2: to see any kind of rotation. And that's where the
- 6:50Speaker 2: capital is going to come from. My concern is if
- 6:53Speaker 2: the dollar holds a lot stronger, does it in fact
- 6:57Speaker 2: start to slow the issue of excess capital starting to
- 7:01Speaker 2: go into risk markets like crypto? That's a concern. right
- 7:05Speaker 2: now that we're dealing with. And if you watch it,
- 7:07Speaker 2: how credit and the Fed are both going to interact
- 7:10Speaker 2: in the next really 30 days, you're probably going to
- 7:13Speaker 2: get a much bigger signal in being able to understand that.
- 7:17Speaker 2: So be on the lookout there. Bitcoin dominance, though, is
- 7:20Speaker 2: pumping right now. Short-term bearish for alts. And this was
- 7:23Speaker 2: something I talked about on Friday with Evan, is that
- 7:28Speaker 2: this could be a market sell-off. And in fact, over
- 7:31Speaker 2: the weekend, we did have a little bit of hits
- 7:33Speaker 2: on the traditional alts. But I think this is maybe short-lived,
- 7:37Speaker 2: but at the same time, there will only be a
- 7:39Speaker 2: few winners here. Here's a clip from Ansem that kind
- 7:41Speaker 2: of talks about that.
- 7:42Speaker 1: Take a look.
- 7:43Speaker 4: A lot of people missed hype because they were looking
- 7:46Speaker 4: at majors, Bitcoin and ETH. But Bitcoin and ETH went
- 7:48Speaker 4: down like 30%, 40% from there. And hype was, as
- 7:51Speaker 4: we know, has been up only. How you would in
- 7:52Speaker 4: previous cycles, you're never buying alts when majors are going down.
- 7:55Speaker 4: You're just absolutely not doing that. The industry, altcoins don't
- 7:58Speaker 4: trend all at one time. They trend based on their
- 8:00Speaker 4: actual fundamental values and inflows.
- 8:04Speaker 1: Yeah, and he's right.
- 8:05Speaker 2: I mean, this is a typical signal that everybody has
- 8:09Speaker 2: followed in crypto, I think, forever. But if you look
- 8:13Speaker 2: at it, the weekend selling did hit altcoins hard as
- 8:16Speaker 2: a fear from equity spills into crypto. Typical altcoin now
- 8:19Speaker 2: down over 5% in the weekend close. This could be
- 8:22Speaker 2: the largest weekend drop since April. So if you were
- 8:26Speaker 2: going to buy an altcoin right now and you buy
- 8:28Speaker 2: these dips and you could still see at this and say, hey,
- 8:32Speaker 2: there's maybe another 10%, 15%. in the market that could
- 8:35Speaker 2: come off of these coins, which ones would you buy?
- 8:39Speaker 1: Let me know in the comments.
- 8:39Speaker 2: Which ones would you buy right now, maybe in a
- 8:42Speaker 2: dollar cost average scenario, if you're a believer in those
- 8:46Speaker 2: specific altcoins? One other thing I want to touch on
- 8:49Speaker 2: on Ansem's clip there was looking at fundamental structure around
- 8:56Speaker 2: most of these altcoins. That is a core thesis that
- 8:59Speaker 2: we talk about.
- 9:00Speaker 1: All the time. However, sentiment is a major influence when
- 9:06Speaker 1: the majors are moving.
- 9:08Speaker 2: And what I mean by that is Bitcoin and Ethereum,
- 9:10Speaker 2: if they are moving, and to a certain extent, maybe
- 9:12Speaker 2: even Solana, if it's moving to a certain extent, then
- 9:15Speaker 2: it has an influence on sentiment in the market. Sentiment
- 9:19Speaker 2: in the market can now start to correlate even on
- 9:22Speaker 2: altcoins that don't necessarily have the narrative there and the
- 9:25Speaker 2: fundamentals there.
- 9:26Speaker 1: So you have to kind of understand that.
- 9:28Speaker 2: Most people will say, well, no, I'm just going to
- 9:30Speaker 2: trade on the side of fundamental altcoins.
- 9:33Speaker 1: Yes, no problem there.
- 9:35Speaker 2: Some people want a higher risk appetite and they're looking
- 9:38Speaker 2: at those alternatives and usually sentiment driven tokens are the ones,
- 9:42Speaker 2: just like meme coins, are going to be the ones
- 9:44Speaker 2: that see the most gains. But it really depends on
- 9:47Speaker 2: your risk appetite. And I'm not telling you guys to
- 9:50Speaker 2: go out there and trade on more high risk assets,
- 9:53Speaker 2: but just be aware that that's how the market moves.
- 9:56Speaker 2: And I think this is something that a lot of
- 9:57Speaker 2: people understand that has been in crypto, But there's a
- 10:00Speaker 2: lot of you that are brand new to the channel
- 10:01Speaker 2: that have not been in crypto.
- 10:03Speaker 1: And this is kind of a new thing for you.
- 10:04Speaker 1: So pay attention. All right.
- 10:06Speaker 2: Speaking of fundamentals, you got to take a look at
- 10:08Speaker 2: one of the biggest altcoins out there, I feel like.
- 10:11Speaker 2: And that is Circle. Kind of moves like an altcoin
- 10:13Speaker 2: in terms of volatility, but it hits back at rival stablecoins. This,
- 10:17Speaker 2: of course, has been moving in a direction that I
- 10:19Speaker 2: think many of you guys know. We've been looking at
- 10:22Speaker 2: this for quite a while. We've talked about it quite
- 10:24Speaker 2: a bit. This is one of the top movers. We
- 10:26Speaker 2: think it will continue to be that way in terms
- 10:29Speaker 2: of a representative on traditional finance as a stock for
- 10:34Speaker 2: the crypto entities that are out there. So just pay attention.
- 10:37Speaker 2: Circle is being able to do it. It brought in
- 10:39Speaker 2: about $ 1. 4 billion in revenue.
- 10:41Speaker 3: Jeez.
- 10:41Speaker 2: $ 1. 4 billion in revenue.
- 10:44Speaker 1: That's the first half of 2026. And we haven't seen
- 10:48Speaker 1: an adoption boom.
- 10:50Speaker 2: So imagine what this company is going to do when
- 10:53Speaker 2: we do see an adoption move. Last week, they also
- 10:56Speaker 2: went out to 40 different countries. A lot of news
- 10:58Speaker 2: that's going to help, I think, USDC become the de
- 11:01Speaker 2: facto stablecoin and maybe rival USDT. I don't know if
- 11:05Speaker 2: it will happen, but things are moving fast for Circle.
- 11:08Speaker 1: Pay attention.
- 11:09Speaker 2: Other things you've got happening right now, JP Morgan is
- 11:11Speaker 2: now three tokenized products on ETH.
- 11:14Speaker 1: And this is on ETH mainnet. You've got JPMD. This
- 11:17Speaker 1: is their U.S. deposit token on ETH and base.
- 11:20Speaker 2: I don't know if you would use that, but it's
- 11:22Speaker 2: up to you. But I'm just wondering, you know, would
- 11:24Speaker 2: you use a bank deposit token or would you use
- 11:27Speaker 2: something like a traditional stablecoin? Then you've got money, which
- 11:30Speaker 2: is tokenized money market fund. That's something I'm not necessarily
- 11:33Speaker 2: interested in. And then you've got JLTXX, which is a
- 11:36Speaker 2: tokenized money market fund also.
- 11:39Speaker 1: All of these are riding on Ethereum.
- 11:41Speaker 2: The thing is, there's going to be a lot of
- 11:42Speaker 2: investors out there that are coming over from traditional finance
- 11:45Speaker 2: that most likely will take part in those kinds of
- 11:48Speaker 2: transactions and funds.
- 11:50Speaker 1: All right, so one point on this is that when.
- 11:52Speaker 2: You kind of compare the two, you've got JP Morgan
- 11:55Speaker 2: and Circle almost on an intersection for a head-on collision here.
- 12:00Speaker 2: The real question is, who's going to win that race?
- 12:03Speaker 2: I still think it's going to be Circle because of
- 12:05Speaker 2: their native introduction into crypto in general, their blockchain dominance
- 12:11Speaker 2: that they've had in trading pairs, and the extension that
- 12:14Speaker 2: they have globally already. That's a big powerful play compared
- 12:18Speaker 2: to what JP Morgan is going to be doing here in.
- 12:20Speaker 1: The United States by itself. So I think this is
- 12:23Speaker 1: a failed effort.
- 12:24Speaker 2: It's a good effort in the sense of them trying
- 12:26Speaker 2: to play in the game, but I don't think that
- 12:28Speaker 2: these kind of companies are going to win the race overall.
- 12:32Speaker 1: Prove me wrong.
- 12:33Speaker 2: Let me go to a clip real quick. It's an
- 12:35Speaker 2: interesting theory is that institutionalization has actually spoiled crypto.
- 12:41Speaker 1: And then I have some thoughts on this, but take
- 12:43Speaker 1: a look.
- 12:44Speaker 5: I will say institutionalization is absolutely the worst thing I
- 12:48Speaker 5: think that happened for you guys, for people that truly
- 12:51Speaker 5: believe in it, because the value proposition of decentralization and
- 12:56Speaker 5: like liberty and all that kind of stuff has all
- 12:59Speaker 5: become really, really badly implemented. at least in the short term,
- 13:04Speaker 5: it's a branding problem for crypto. Are there enough 18
- 13:08Speaker 5: to 25-year-olds that are going to be true believers?
- 13:11Speaker 3: Maybe. I don't know.
- 13:12Speaker 5: I feel like the brand has been really badly hurt
- 13:14Speaker 5: by this administration and just by the general Wall Street
- 13:21Speaker 5: inhaling crypto.
- 13:22Speaker 3: All right.
- 13:24Speaker 1: So my argument to that is this.
- 13:27Speaker 2: When you look at you know, major adoption cycles. And,
- 13:31Speaker 2: you know, I've seen a few of these in my past,
- 13:34Speaker 2: been in tech for a long time.
- 13:36Speaker 1: So, and I'm not saying that I'm right.
- 13:37Speaker 2: I'm just saying that you look at human behavior and
- 13:40Speaker 2: that's the thing that I think we're going to get into.
- 13:42Speaker 2: This is legitimizing it to a certain extent. What I'm
- 13:45Speaker 2: talking about is institutional adoption into crypto and blockchain.
- 13:48Speaker 1: So fair enough.
- 13:49Speaker 2: You definitely will have pushback from kind of this next generation.
- 13:54Speaker 1: But I think that it's gonna go the opposite way.
- 13:56Speaker 1: I think it will only.
- 13:57Speaker 2: Say, because it was adopted over there, the OGs, the
- 14:02Speaker 2: boomers did this, we can do it better.
- 14:05Speaker 1: So I think we'll see maybe a whole.
- 14:07Speaker 2: New era of blockchain, crypto projects, et cetera, that will
- 14:11Speaker 2: start to dominate that younger generation and it will only
- 14:15Speaker 2: explode them because they understand now they have detached from
- 14:19Speaker 2: the system. That to me is a great opportunity And
- 14:23Speaker 2: the advantage that the institutions brought to this is the
- 14:26Speaker 2: fact that they made it happen. In essence, you push
- 14:30Speaker 2: that market away by getting into it. So I think
- 14:34Speaker 2: it's the flip. I think it's a complete different way
- 14:37Speaker 2: of how investors are going to look at this in
- 14:39Speaker 2: the future. Now, do I think this is going to
- 14:41Speaker 2: be next generation investors going into banks? No, I think
- 14:44Speaker 2: banks are done. We're not going to see banks the
- 14:46Speaker 2: way you and I have seen them in the last two, three,
- 14:49Speaker 2: four decades. This is going to be a complete revolution
- 14:52Speaker 2: in finance. Mark my word, this is going to happen,
- 14:55Speaker 2: and I think it's going to be let in because
- 14:57Speaker 2: institutions came in to spoil the game. So pay attention
- 15:02Speaker 2: to that one. You've got another guy spoiling the game
- 15:05Speaker 2: right now, and that is Ledger. Ledger is now going
- 15:08Speaker 2: out with their new Ledger Atom. This is going to
- 15:10Speaker 2: contain Ledger's most advanced anti-tampering and tamper-evident solutions to date.
- 15:16Speaker 2: I'm glad that companies are out there trying to do that,
- 15:19Speaker 2: and they should be, but I think they're in a
- 15:22Speaker 2: bit of a spot. a trouble right now in terms
- 15:25Speaker 2: of hardware wallets. This is one of the things they're proposing,
- 15:29Speaker 2: which is a device that won't necessarily be a phone.
- 15:32Speaker 2: They partnered with Solana. I saw that over the weekend.
- 15:36Speaker 2: I'm sorry, Solana, I didn't think that was a good partnership.
- 15:38Speaker 2: I understand that was probably months, maybe years of business
- 15:41Speaker 2: development that had to kind of culminate there. But this,
- 15:44Speaker 2: I don't think, is a solution that anybody that has
- 15:47Speaker 2: been in crypto for a long time is going to use.
- 15:50Speaker 1: Is a device that is kind of like a phone.
- 15:52Speaker 2: You need to connect to Wi-Fi, but yet at the
- 15:54Speaker 2: same time, you're still dealing with agentic issues. Those kind
- 15:58Speaker 2: of things I'm not really interested in. I think you've
- 15:59Speaker 2: got to retain control in some sort of self-custody solution.
- 16:03Speaker 2: That's the only model to use. And I think privacy
- 16:06Speaker 2: is going to be paramount going forward. And that's the
- 16:09Speaker 2: key to watch right here is how these companies play
- 16:11Speaker 2: into this. And this is another thing.
- 16:14Speaker 1: Why not?
- 16:14Speaker 2: Why do you have to have an open market out
- 16:17Speaker 2: there trying to create devices that to see if your
- 16:20Speaker 2: devices are being attacked by other devices. So this is
- 16:26Speaker 2: an example, and this is trying to detect a spy implant, basically.
- 16:30Speaker 2: So you got a hardware out there, which was the problem.
- 16:32Speaker 2: If you guys don't know the news, there was devices
- 16:34Speaker 2: that were somehow.
- 16:37Speaker 1: Vector attacked by a supply chain through a distributor.
- 16:41Speaker 2: Not necessarily, I won't name countries or anything of that nature,
- 16:45Speaker 2: but basically a distributor was the one where the vector occurred.
- 16:48Speaker 2: And now they're trying to get in and actually, and
- 16:50Speaker 2: this was a hardware change in the actual devices themselves.
- 16:54Speaker 2: Now they're going and trying to build something to be
- 16:55Speaker 2: able to detect this. These are the kind of things, guys,
- 16:57Speaker 2: that should not happen.
- 16:59Speaker 1: These are company killers.
- 17:01Speaker 2: And I've seen this in the tech industry and in
- 17:03Speaker 2: the compute industry a lot. The opportunity here, I think,
- 17:07Speaker 2: for a real new solution is here. So be on
- 17:13Speaker 2: the lookout. We may see some very interesting solutions coming
- 17:16Speaker 2: up very quickly. because you're going to see a major
- 17:19Speaker 2: part of the market starting to look elsewhere for self-custody solutions.
- 17:24Speaker 2: So pay attention to that. We're going to cover this
- 17:26Speaker 2: and a lot more this week, so stay tuned. If
- 17:34Speaker 2: you like this video, hit like and subscribe, drop a
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- 17:41Speaker 1: The link is in the description.