Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 82 - 7/24/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 82 - 7/24/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:20
  Hello, and welcome to episode 82 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 0:26
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:29
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:36
  Happy Wednesday. We're halfway through our work
• 0:39
  week and we got more baseball to talk about because that's what
• 0:42
  you bet on and the dog days of summer when nothing else is
• 0:45
  going on the calm before the storm before football starts.
• 0:48
  So we're going to get right back to the diamond here today guys,
• 0:50
  I have a four pack of sweats for you there's a lot of day games
• 0:53
  today. I didn't have a ton of system
• 0:55
  matches. So we do have a four pack
• 0:57
  getting ready here to discuss with you including three money
• 1:00
  lines couple good sharp moves as well as a total.
• 1:03
  That's right. I picked my spots with totals.
• 1:06
  Often times you know I'll get Adm every now and again.
• 1:08
  Hey, why don't you get more totals?
• 1:09
  Well, one, I feel like I always don't have the greatest luck
• 1:12
  with totals. You bet an under, it flies over.
• 1:14
  You bet an over, it's a 2 nothing game.
• 1:17
  You know, bullpens going to blow it for you.
• 1:19
  So I feel like I have more success with just straight money
• 1:21
  lines or sides. But I also I don't look for
• 1:24
  totals each day. I let totals kind of just scream
• 1:27
  at me and say, hey, checking off all the boxes here.
• 1:30
  Juice movement, line movement, bet splits, the weather, the
• 1:33
  pitchers, the offense, whatever the bullpens.
• 1:36
  If it screams out to me and says, hey, you got to play me,
• 1:39
  then I'll play a total. So Long story short, I'm very
• 1:41
  selective when it comes with totals because I feel like as a
• 1:44
  sports better, you got to lean on what works for you.
• 1:46
  Maybe you're the opposite. Maybe you crush your totals.
• 1:48
  If you do, if you do, give me the secret to your success and
• 1:51
  maybe you're not that good at money lines.
• 1:53
  Again, it all depends on your style, but I think what is
• 1:56
  important is hey, let the board talk to you.
• 1:59
  Don't come into today saying I want to bet three money lines
• 2:01
  and one total come in each day. Just being open minded about
• 2:05
  what the board is telling you and go where the sharp money is
• 2:07
  leaning. SO4 pack here for today.
• 2:10
  Now, looking back toward yesterday, bit of a frustrating
• 2:12
  night. Really wasn't that bad.
• 2:14
  Three and three. We had six bets, three and three
• 2:17
  down the middle, but because of some minus numbers, we lost
• 2:19
  -0.36 units. So about 1/3 of a unit did have
• 2:24
  a really good start to the night.
• 2:25
  And I was saying, hey, this could be a big night here.
• 2:27
  The Brewers, the Rangers, the Padres all came through.
• 2:30
  That Brewers game was an epic sweat.
• 2:32
  So it was back and forth was nothing, nothing for a while end
• 2:35
  up being, was it A1, nothing win from Milwaukee.
• 2:38
  But the frustrating one was we were three and one with our last
• 2:40
  with our first four bets. And as long as we get one of the
• 2:43
  last two, four and two winning night, unfortunately both the
• 2:46
  Royals and the Astros, in addition to the Twins let us
• 2:49
  down. So either way, guys, you're
• 2:51
  going to have those nights into me when you can go 3 and 3 -,
• 2:55
  0.36 units but in, but avoid A2 and 4A1 and five.
• 3:00
  Again, those three and three nights you give 1/3 of a unit
• 3:02
  back might feel like a losing night, but in the end, it's
• 3:05
  really not going to hurt you. 1/3 of a unit here there.
• 3:07
  The whole point being is avoid the really bad nights.
• 3:10
  But either way, guys, our goal is always to turn a profit, make
• 3:13
  some money and stack as many winning days as we can.
• 3:16
  So let's see if we can get back to our winning ways here for
• 3:18
  today. So that being said, let's dive
• 3:20
  right into the Major League slate for tonight.
• 3:22
  I want to start off with a big 6:40 PM.
• 3:25
  Eastern Time matchup between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland
• 3:29
  Guardians. Now going to this one, these AL
• 3:31
  Central opponents have split the first two games of this
• 3:34
  four-game series. Remember, the Tigers had a big
• 3:36
  winner for us in the opener. Tigers are now 50 and 52 on the
• 3:40
  year. They won that opener eight to
• 3:42
  two, taking care of business as a -, 135 road favorite.
• 3:46
  Meanwhile, the Guardians bounced back yesterday with A5 to four
• 3:49
  win, cashing as a -, 120 home favorite.
• 3:51
  The Guardians are now 60 and 40 on the year.
• 3:55
  So pitching match up here for tonight, the Tigers are going to
• 3:57
  go with ready Jack Flaherty, who's seven and five with a 3.13
• 4:01
  ERA. He'll be opposed by Tanner
• 4:04
  Beebe, fellow ready. He's eight and four, the 3.58
• 4:07
  ERA. So.
• 4:08
  What we've seen across the market.
• 4:09
  Here, Well, pretty much one sided movement in favor of
• 4:12
  Cleveland. I'm going guardians here guys.
• 4:14
  I got the Guardians at -145 but this game actually opened
• 4:18
  guardians -135 so we've seen about $0.10 of Steam hit
• 4:23
  Cleveland 'cause that big adjustment in their favor.
• 4:26
  Again, one cent here or there, you at least want to be aware of
• 4:29
  it. But when you get to $0.10 or
• 4:31
  more, that's when you know some big money is taking a position.
• 4:34
  So always have your eyes trained, you know the open
• 4:36
  column on your live odds page compared to all the current
• 4:39
  prices, you see $0.10 or more one way or the other.
• 4:42
  Boom. That's an automatic indicator
• 4:43
  that that side is taking in some respected action.
• 4:46
  Now the Guardians are getting around 70% of money line bets.
• 4:49
  So they are the quote UN quote public side here tonight.
• 4:52
  But it's not just public. It looks pro and Joe based on
• 4:55
  the fact that this line has been adjusted $0.10 or even a little
• 4:57
  bit more at some shops in favor of the Guardians.
• 5:00
  Now system matches here favorites getting $0.10 of steam
• 5:04
  or more against the team who missed the playoffs the previous
• 5:06
  year. So you're favored, you're
• 5:08
  expected to win, you got the market movement in your
• 5:10
  direction and you're playing a team that is probably not that
• 5:13
  good. That system match on the season
• 5:16
  is 175 and 108 sixty 2% with a 1% ROI.
• 5:21
  The Guardians, meanwhile, one of the best chalk teams are
• 5:23
  actually the best chalk team. I don't want to give not give
• 5:26
  them enough respect because they are due disrespect.
• 5:28
  They're the number one favorite team in baseball.
• 5:30
  That means when they're favored, they've gone 44 and 2069% with a
• 5:36
  20% ROI. That just tells me that, hey,
• 5:37
  when they're expected to win, typically they come through.
• 5:40
  So that is another angle or feather in the cap of the
• 5:42
  Guardians tonight. Classic correlative bet betting
• 5:46
  value here on the Guardians because we've seen this line
• 5:48
  move in their favor -135 up to -145 in addition to this total
• 5:53
  open very low, 7 1/2. Now it's down to seven.
• 5:56
  So we have the line moving toward the favorite.
• 5:57
  We have the total dropping. That's a good sign here because
• 6:00
  the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come
• 6:03
  from, quote UN quote, the better team who's expected to win.
• 6:06
  Guardians also been one of the best home teams in baseball.
• 6:09
  I know they're one and one in the series at home, but overall
• 6:11
  they're 32 and 14. The Tigers, meanwhile, 26 and 28
• 6:15
  on the road. And I'm going to bank on
• 6:17
  Cleveland's bats. Hopefully we have BB pitching a
• 6:19
  good game tonight, but the Cleveland bats have been a
• 6:22
  little bit better than Detroit this year, hitting 243, 469 runs
• 6:26
  scored. Detroit hitting two, 34444 runs
• 6:30
  scored, 441 runs scored, I should say.
• 6:34
  But anyway, guys, line movement toward Cleveland.
• 6:36
  Favorite low total, some good system matches.
• 6:39
  I'm going to bank on BB and the Guards to hopefully come through
• 6:42
  for a winner for us tonight. Guys, I'm on Cleveland at -145
• 6:47
  keep on cruising. 6:45 PM Eastern Time, First pitch, let's
• 6:50
  go to the nation's capital, San Diego Padres visiting the
• 6:53
  Washington Nationals. Now.
• 6:55
  Padres 53 and 50 had a big winner for us last night for
• 6:59
  nothing cashing as a plus one O 5 row dog.
• 7:02
  Tonight's rematch, the Padres are going to go with the ready
• 7:04
  Matt Waldron, who's 5:00 and 9:00 with a 3.59 ERA.
• 7:08
  Meanwhile, the Nats who are 47 and 54, they're going to turn to
• 7:11
  lefty Mitchell Parker, who's five and five with a 3.9 O ERA.
• 7:15
  So. What have you seen across the
• 7:17
  market here? Well, this game open, San Diego
• 7:20
  listed as a short favorite, the Padres were around -120 -, 125.
• 7:25
  But now we're seeing this line basically go dog to fave in
• 7:29
  favor of Washington because Washington opened, you know,
• 7:32
  plus 115 + 110. Now Washington is basically
• 7:38
  minus one O 5 -, 110. Some shops even going up a
• 7:41
  little higher, maybe closer to -115 So what does that mean,
• 7:45
  guys? It means that we always love dog
• 7:47
  to fave. So you open up as a dog, you get
• 7:49
  flipped to a favorite. Why is that important and
• 7:51
  notable? Because it takes a lot of
• 7:53
  respected money to flip the favorite designation of who's
• 7:55
  expected to win the game. Now aside from this line move
• 7:59
  toward the Nationals, which tells me you've got smart money
• 8:01
  on the Nats tonight, there's also a huge reverse line move
• 8:04
  play because the betting public is all over the Padres.
• 8:07
  I get it. They won last night.
• 8:09
  Better record. They got a bunch of star
• 8:10
  players, name recognition. Washington got a lot of young
• 8:13
  guys. So you don't really know or
• 8:14
  haven't really heard about not many stars.
• 8:17
  So it makes sense. Just take the Padres here.
• 8:19
  That's what the public's doing. 77% of bets are on the Padres.
• 8:24
  However, again, we like the dog to fave line move toward
• 8:27
  Washington, but we like it even more because they're only
• 8:29
  getting 23% of bets. So that tells us that even
• 8:32
  though the public is on the Nats, all or sorry the public is
• 8:35
  on the Padres, all the big money is coming in on Washington
• 8:38
  flipping that line move in their direction.
• 8:41
  Now with Washington is a very short favorite again, some books
• 8:44
  might look closer to a Peckham, but mostly slight favorites here
• 8:47
  toward Washington. They would match few betting
• 8:50
  systems that I love want to be a favorite off a loss, playing an
• 8:53
  opponent off a win. Very simple system.
• 8:55
  But that's 334 and 2:18 this year, 61% with a 3% ROI,
• 9:01
  favorites who missed the postseason or sorry, favorites
• 9:04
  with steam playing a team who missed the postseason, 62% on
• 9:08
  the season with a 1% ROI. Then also, it's not most often
• 9:13
  situation that the Washington Nationals are a favorite.
• 9:16
  Typically they're a dog, but as a favorite they've been pretty
• 9:18
  good ten and six this year with a 14% ROI.
• 9:22
  Also just kind of the the fishy value of Washington lost
• 9:27
  yesterday and they have a losing record and the Padres won
• 9:30
  yesterday. They have a winning record, yet
• 9:32
  Washington is favored. Like, you get what I'm saying
• 9:34
  here, Like shouldn't it be the team was coming off the win with
• 9:36
  a better record being favored? Any time you see a team with a
• 9:39
  worst record that's favored, that's always a fishy angle that
• 9:42
  I want to get behind. Meanwhile, the Padres, O and
• 9:44
  four and Waldron's last four starts.
• 9:47
  Parker, meanwhile, 2.82 ERA at home versus 4.91 on the road.
• 9:51
  Luckily for us, if you're playing the Nats like me, he's
• 9:53
  at home tonight. And then also the Padres,
• 9:56
  they're only hitting 237 against lefties this year.
• 9:59
  That's 21st in baseball. So you add it all up here, guys.
• 10:02
  I'm going to follow the sharp line move.
• 10:03
  I'm going to go with the Nationals.
• 10:05
  I got Washington at -110 keep on cruising.
• 10:09
  Let's go to Texas. That's right where everything's
• 10:11
  bigger in Texas. Let's look at the White Sox
• 10:14
  visiting the Texas Rangers. Now, the Rangers we played last
• 10:17
  couple nights have come through for us.
• 10:19
  But did you notice the price on the Rangers tonight -270 that's
• 10:23
  a little too high for me as a bet to risk.
• 10:25
  First bet to win better. You know, I'm risking one unit.
• 10:28
  I'm getting like less, you know, basically 1/3 of a unit back.
• 10:31
  If they happen to lose, I lose a unit.
• 10:33
  So to me, the juice isn't worth the squeeze.
• 10:34
  If you tell me like Texas big league tonight, you know, you
• 10:37
  could go on the on the spread here, you could go -1 1/2 at
• 10:42
  -135 but to me, this price is just too high.
• 10:45
  I'm not interested in the money line, but I am interested in the
• 10:48
  total. So one thing that jumped out to
• 10:50
  me with this total is that we're painted across the board, juiced
• 10:54
  up over. So what does that mean?
• 10:56
  It means that this total opened at 8 pretty much at every sports
• 11:00
  book across the board. A lot of them were eight, you
• 11:02
  know -110 maybe slightly 8 -, 115 to the over.
• 11:07
  Now you're 8 -, 115 -, 120 to the over at every book.
• 11:11
  And if you look at the bet history, which is really
• 11:13
  important because when you're looking at your live odds page,
• 11:16
  you're getting the current numbers.
• 11:17
  But often times you can click the box that shows the current
• 11:20
  odds price and it'll pull up the line history.
• 11:22
  So that's important because you can look at little moves in
• 11:24
  between and it can give you a little more piece to more pieces
• 11:28
  to the puzzle. And what I noticed is that
• 11:30
  several shops actually did go to 8 1/2 and come back down to 8.
• 11:34
  So this was only eight juiced up over 8 1/2 back down to 8, still
• 11:38
  juiced up. Juiced up over.
• 11:40
  It was never like 8 down to 7 1/2 back to eight.
• 11:43
  It was always juiced up and either moving, staying the same
• 11:46
  or liability moving up. So that tells me that we have
• 11:49
  some respective money going over here.
• 11:51
  Now what I like about the over. Then again, this is a straight
• 11:54
  data play to me. We got a juiced up over 8.
• 11:57
  So I'm on over eight at -115 but we have a juiced up over.
• 12:01
  We also have a really good bet split.
• 12:02
  Only 45% of bets, but 61% of dollars are on this over.
• 12:08
  So let me ask you this. If nearly, you know 55% or you
• 12:11
  know a majority here of betters are going under, why is the
• 12:15
  juice liability over? Like wouldn't you think it'd be
• 12:17
  juiced up under if the majority bets are on the under?
• 12:20
  No, this tells me we have a contrarian over opportunity,
• 12:22
  which is really rare because the public tends to want to root for
• 12:25
  action, root for runs and play the over.
• 12:28
  But that bet split really jumped out to me juiced up over low
• 12:31
  bets, higher dollars, contrarian bet split.
• 12:33
  Now, I forgot to mention the pitching match up here.
• 12:35
  Chris Flexen, the righty, is going for Chicago.
• 12:38
  He's 2:00 and 9:00 with a 5.22 ERA.
• 12:41
  Nathan Ivaldi is going for Texas six and four, 3.36 ERA.
• 12:45
  I think the angle here is to play the over and hope that
• 12:49
  Texas Rangers, maybe Chicago at least puts up a couple runs.
• 12:52
  But the Rangers really, you know, scoring a lot, hopefully
• 12:55
  against Flexen, he's got a 5.56 ERA and four July starts on the
• 12:59
  road is ERA is 5.83. So hopefully the bats of the
• 13:03
  Rangers can really light up Flex in here tonight.
• 13:06
  Or maybe we get lucky and, you know, the White Sox put up four
• 13:09
  or five runs. That would be cool too.
• 13:11
  A beauty of an over is you don't care who wins, just put up the
• 13:13
  the requisite number of runs. But anyway, it's fishy to me
• 13:16
  too, because what both of these teams are under teams.
• 13:20
  The White Sox are 55 and 44 to the under.
• 13:22
  The Rangers are 56 and 41 to the under.
• 13:25
  So these are both under teams. And by the way, in the series
• 13:29
  we've had a four to three-game and a three to two game, seven
• 13:33
  runs and five runs. So everything is saying under
• 13:35
  and the public is that's why the public's betting the under, yet
• 13:38
  we're still seeing that fishy liability on the over.
• 13:42
  If you'll get Flexing's last four starts, the totals in those
• 13:45
  games were eight runs, eight runs, fourteen runs and thirteen
• 13:48
  runs. So again, really hoping that the
• 13:49
  Rangers bats can light up Flexing, but you add it all up
• 13:52
  here, guys. I'm really going to lean on the
• 13:54
  data here. The fact that we have a juiced
• 13:56
  up over eight. It's touched 8 1/2 at some
• 13:58
  shops. It's got a great bet split to
• 14:00
  the over. And again, hopefully we get the
• 14:02
  bats to show up in kind of a fishy over opportunity.
• 14:05
  So I'm on over eight at -115 for the White Sox and the Rangers
• 14:11
  last game of the night. Let's see if we can get a dog to
• 14:14
  bark who let the dogs out. Hopefully the Arizona snakes let
• 14:17
  the dogs out tonight. Arizona playing the Kansas City
• 14:20
  Royals in 8:10 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
• 14:23
  This is the rubber match of a three-game interleague series.
• 14:26
  The Royals are 56 and 46. They won the opener 3:50 as a -
• 14:30
  145 home favorite. Then last night, sadly, the D
• 14:33
  backs were 52 and 50. They bounced back with a win six
• 14:37
  to two. I was annoying to me winning as
• 14:40
  a plus one O 5 dog because I was on Kansas City.
• 14:43
  But I have the win total over Diamondbacks over was at 83 1/2.
• 14:47
  So at least we got to win for the win total.
• 14:50
  But anyway, for the rubber match here for tonight, the
• 14:53
  Diamondbacks are going to go with ready Ryan Nelson, who's
• 14:56
  seven and six with a 4.78 ERA. Meanwhile, the Royals are going
• 14:59
  to go with ready Michael Waka, who's seven and six with a 3.55
• 15:04
  ERA. So.
• 15:05
  What we seen across the market here.
• 15:06
  Well, public is all over Kansas City, KS City is getting 73% of
• 15:11
  bets. But the lines falling away from
• 15:13
  Kansas City, KS City opened -130 someone book even -135 now
• 15:18
  Kansas City is down to -125 -, 120.
• 15:22
  So if 73% of bets, 3 out of four bets are on the the Royals here,
• 15:26
  you know, why isn't this line up to -140 -, 150?
• 15:29
  No, it's actually dipped down a little bit.
• 15:31
  So you got to ask yourself, if Publix on Royals, why are the
• 15:34
  oddsmakers dropping this number on the Royals to give out an
• 15:36
  even cheaper price for the public to play Kansas City?
• 15:39
  Well, they're doing that because they took respective money on
• 15:42
  Arizona. So I want to be with Arizona
• 15:44
  again. They're only getting 27% of
• 15:46
  bets, yet they open plus 1/20 and now you're down to plus 110.
• 15:51
  So we've seen that line move in favor of the snakes.
• 15:53
  Despite being the unpopular side.
• 15:55
  Now Arizona has some correlative betting value.
• 15:58
  A minute ago we talked Guardians favorite low total.
• 16:01
  Well, this would be a dog high total told this one is 9.
• 16:04
  So the more expected run scored leads to more variance, more
• 16:07
  upset opportunities. Also, I'm going to bank on
• 16:11
  Arizona's bats hopefully coming to life tonight.
• 16:13
  They're hitting 252 on the year, 501 runs scored.
• 16:17
  Royals are hitting two, 49471 runs scored.
• 16:21
  And also Nelson on the year. His numbers don't seem great,
• 16:24
  4.78 ERA, but he's pitched very, very well recently, so knock on
• 16:28
  what I hope that continues. Arizona's three and O in his
• 16:31
  last three starts and he has a 2.22 ERA and four July starts.
• 16:35
  He's only giving up six earned runs in 24.1 innings pitched.
• 16:40
  So Long story short, we got a rubber match in the series.
• 16:43
  Both teams have won a game for tonight open Kansas City as a
• 16:46
  favorite. They're getting a big amount of
• 16:48
  public support yet the total or sorry yet the money line is
• 16:51
  dropping away from KC toward Arizona.
• 16:54
  So I'm going to go snakes here, guys.
• 16:55
  Let's see if we can get a dog to bark.
• 16:57
  I'm on Arizona or maybe a snake to bite.
• 16:59
  What do you think about that? Let's go snakes.
• 17:02
  I got them at plus 110. So that about does it.
• 17:05
  A four pack here for tonight. Guardians, Nats and Arizona
• 17:10
  Diamondbacks on the money line and the White Sox and Texas
• 17:13
  Rangers fishy contrarian over 8. So that about does it,
• 17:17
  everybody. Another pod here in the books.
• 17:19
  Hey, it's baseball. That's what we do in the summer
• 17:21
  months when not much else is going on.
• 17:23
  But anyway, guys, this is the part of the pod where first I
• 17:26
  want to thank you for listening. It means so much to me that you
• 17:28
  tune in each day and pull up a chair to the virtual bar and
• 17:32
  breakdown games with me and look for sharp line moves.
• 17:34
  So thank you for tuning in. But now, can I ask a favor of
• 17:37
  you? Could you please make my day and
• 17:40
  give this podcast a 5 star review?
• 17:42
  That's right. If you're listening on Spotify
• 17:44
  or iTunes or any other platform where you get your podcast and
• 17:47
  it gives you the option to give it a rating, give it five stars,
• 17:51
  that really make my day. Help us to grow the pod, gain
• 17:54
  more, gain more eyeballs and respect, rise up the charts.
• 17:57
  That'll be fantastic. If you could give it a 5 star
• 17:59
  review, it mean a lot to me. Also, if there's an option to
• 18:02
  follow, click the follow one. That way you're going to get
• 18:04
  alerted as soon as the pod drops because of course we're going to
• 18:07
  talk games and numbers can move. So the earlier you listen to the
• 18:10
  pod, hopefully the better number that you get.
• 18:12
  Secondly, if you enjoy these breakdowns, these market based
• 18:16
  approach betting breakdowns and you want to learn more about how
• 18:20
  to be a data-driven sharp contrarian better, well, guess
• 18:22
  what? I wrote a book.
• 18:23
  Can you believe it? I'm an author and that's right,
• 18:25
  I'm not just a sports betting analyst, I'm an author.
• 18:28
  I wrote a book called the Everything Guide to Sports
• 18:30
  Betting. So just go to Amazon.com and
• 18:33
  type in the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 18:35
  Pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
• 18:37
  It would mean everything to me guys, if you wanted to pick one
• 18:39
  up. It's got everything I've learned
• 18:41
  in the industry, how lines are set, how and why they move, how
• 18:45
  to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to
• 18:47
  place the bet in person or online, how to shop for the best
• 18:50
  line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, all included in
• 18:53
  the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 18:56
  So when you pick one up, bring it to the book, I'll sign it for
• 18:59
  you and I'll buy you a beer or a ginger ale if you don't drink.
• 19:02
  Lastly, of course, have you signed up and taken advantage of
• 19:05
  a 7 day free trial for both Juice Reel and Rhythm?
• 19:09
  Well, if you haven't done it yet guys, I want you to go do that
• 19:12
  right now. I stand by completely Juice Reel
• 19:15
  and Rhythm because I know who I know, the people who created it.
• 19:18
  I know the brains behind both operations and I've seen both
• 19:22
  how they work and how they help me to cash bets and I want them
• 19:25
  to help you cash bets as well. So with Rhythm, as you guys all
• 19:29
  know, great with their AI backed models and predictions, WNBA
• 19:34
  golf right now I'm excited because they're starting to
• 19:36
  populate for both NFL and college football, especially
• 19:39
  props in the NFLI. Can't wait until we can bet some
• 19:42
  rhythm props like, I don't know, Hunter Henry over 28 1/2
• 19:46
  receiving yards. Albin.
• 19:48
  Anyway guys, Rhythm is fantastic.
• 19:50
  They newly redesigned the app. It looks great.
• 19:53
  So give it a shot, especially if you're betting golf right now.
• 19:56
  I'm not a huge golf guy. Tony Feenal let me down when I
• 19:59
  when I went out on a limb for him.
• 20:01
  But either way, if you bet go off the AI caddy and the the
• 20:04
  preflop predictions before the tournament starts, really,
• 20:07
  really great from rhythm. And then of course, Juice Reel
• 20:09
  does a great job with their arbitrage opportunities.
• 20:12
  I talked about right tweeted out one today, Mickey Moniac double
• 20:15
  S where you bet a certain amount at Caesar's, a certain amount at
• 20:18
  FanDuel and you're guaranteed to win.
• 20:20
  I think it was $9.27. All those arbitrage
• 20:23
  opportunities easily available on Juice Reel app every day, as
• 20:27
  well as the Robo Jackson best bet picks, as well as all of the
• 20:31
  sharp mush opportunities and syncing up your sports book.
• 20:33
  So if you haven't done it yet, sign up with Juice reel, sign up
• 20:36
  with rhythm got nothing to lose 7 day free trial.
• 20:39
  And if if you like it, you can convert to a monthly membership.
• 20:43
  But in order to sign up, you can just click the custom links that
• 20:46
  are located in the bio description of this podcast.
• 20:49
  Also on my Twitter page at Josh under Score insights, the pinned
• 20:53
  tweet at the top of my page, we'll have we'll have some links
• 20:56
  there to sign up. So go take advantage of both
• 20:59
  rhythm and juice Real. Of course, guys.
• 21:01
  That about does it for today's pod #82 and here's what I always
• 21:05
  like to end the pod with, whether I see you at the Borgata
• 21:08
  in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
• 21:10
  Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in Connecticut at the
• 21:14
  Encore in Boston, or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield
• 21:17
  and my neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
• 21:19
  Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
• 21:22
  down, where Billy Walters sends his number runners, where the
• 21:24
  lowest use possible is found at the South Point.
• 21:27
  Or sweat and sharp Contrane plays jumping in the stadium
• 21:30
  swimming pool. When you cash a big ticket,
• 21:31
  wherever it may be. We had some decent winners from
• 21:34
  last night. Show me a Brewers ticket, a
• 21:36
  Rangers ticket, a Padres ticket. Guess what?
• 21:38
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 21:40
  We're going to post about the book sweatshop Contrane plays
• 21:43
  all night long. So wish you the best luck
• 21:45
  everyone. Enjoy your Wednesday night.
• 21:48
  I got a big night because I got a beer league softball game
• 21:51
  tonight under the lights in Cambridge.
• 21:53
  So I'm very much looking forward to that.
• 21:55
  And what's really weird, I always joke because people on
• 21:58
  the team, they know I'm in, I'm, you know, in the industry of
• 22:00
  sports betting. And they'll, they'll always joke
• 22:02
  around like, hey, what's the line on the game tonight?
• 22:04
  So for tonight's line, I'd probably say, I don't know,
• 22:09
  we're about a + 500 dog. And the total is, I'm going to
• 22:12
  say 17 1/2, although recently we've been playing some lower
• 22:15
  scoring games. But either way, guys, hopefully,
• 22:18
  hopefully well, while I'm going silent and not tracking my bets,
• 22:22
  hopefully they're going well. And when I get home and I
• 22:24
  checked them after we win a beer league softball game, we get
• 22:27
  some winners here for tonight. So let's try to get three or
• 22:29
  more for tonight. Eek out a winning night.
• 22:31
  That'll be the goal, of course, But I wish you the best of luck.
• 22:34
  And my parting words, as always, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
• 22:38
  against the public, place yourself on the side of the
• 22:40
  house. Always be with the smart money,
• 22:42
  never against it. Will smart money win every time?
• 22:45
  Of course not, because crazy things happen, bad beats, you
• 22:49
  know, human error, whatever the case may be.
• 22:51
  A referee, an umpire could screw it up.
• 22:53
  Maybe it's just a bad break goes your way, the luck's not with
• 22:55
  you. But here's the thing.
• 22:56
  Those are one offs. Anything can happen in a one
• 22:59
  off. But long term, if we can
• 23:01
  consistently stay true to our model, place bets with our head
• 23:04
  and not our heart, against the public, with the house, with the
• 23:07
  pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
• 23:10
  If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports betters.
• 23:13
  So enjoy the sweats. Everyone.
• 23:14
  Have a great Wednesday. We'll be back at it tomorrow for
• 23:17
  a big Thirsty Thursday episode 83 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 23:21
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 23:24
  Good luck everybody, have a great night.