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Prove It Season · Rice on the Radio

0:22
SPEAKER_00: Episode 40 of Rice on the Mikes.
0:26
SPEAKER_00: Kinda wild I'm actually saying that.
0:28
SPEAKER_00: It started as me rambling into a mic about New York sports.
0:32
SPEAKER_00: And now we got 40 hours worth of takes, receipts, and emotional damage from the Jets and Giants.
0:39
SPEAKER_00: If you've been here for any of it, seriously, I really appreciate you.
0:42
SPEAKER_00: The theme for today is simple.
0:44
SPEAKER_00: Who are you really?
0:46
SPEAKER_00: We've got the Jets benching Justin Fields for Tyrod, walking into Baltimore as a two-touchdown dog.
0:53
SPEAKER_00: Are you a dead season, or are you a team that actually plays hard for a new coach and keeps it close against a shaky defense?
1:01
SPEAKER_00: The Giants are heading into the dome in Detroit.
1:04
SPEAKER_00: Dark coming off a concussion, Abdul Carter trying to move past public discipline, and a Lions offense that can put 21 on you before you even find your seat.
1:12
SPEAKER_00: We'll figure out what's real there.
1:14
SPEAKER_00: Around the league, Colts Chiefs with Indy leading the South, and Casey fighting just to stay in the playoff picture.
1:21
SPEAKER_00: We got Eagles Cowboys with Jalen Hurts catching heat, AJ Brown being a distraction, Dak dealing, and Dallas is desperate.
1:29
SPEAKER_00: That's not just a rivalry game this week, that's an identity check.
1:33
SPEAKER_00: We'll hit some fantasy, some panic meter guys, best and worst week 12 matchups, then into rolling the dice with Rice, where I'll try to fatten your wallet and give you my picks for this weekend.
1:45
SPEAKER_00: Colts, Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, Bucks, Rams, plus the locals, Jets, Ravens, and the Giants lines.
1:52
SPEAKER_00: Knicks sneaking a win in Dallas with Brunson back.
1:55
SPEAKER_00: Bet you he was happy to be back there.
1:57
SPEAKER_00: Shamit taking charges, but half the roster is in the training room.
2:01
SPEAKER_00: And MLB's money's moving around.
2:04
SPEAKER_00: Nailers staying in Seattle.
2:05
SPEAKER_00: Braves and Mets are setting up the market.
2:08
SPEAKER_00: Episode 40.
2:09
SPEAKER_00: Who are you really?
2:11
SPEAKER_00: Well, stick around.
2:12
SPEAKER_00: Let's find out.
2:19
SPEAKER_00: So let's get into some football because week 11 was basically the league looking in the mirror and asking, who are you really?
2:28
SPEAKER_00: And that's why that's our theme this week.
2:31
SPEAKER_00: I'll start local because that's where the identity crisis is the loudest.
2:35
SPEAKER_00: The Giants lose 27-20 to the Packers in a game that just sums up their whole year.
2:42
SPEAKER_00: Jordan Love leaves with a shoulder scare, and Malik Willis comes right in and finishes a touchdown drive.
2:48
SPEAKER_00: Green Bay runs all over a defense that's 31st against the run.
2:52
SPEAKER_00: Then Love comes back in, guts it out, and he's on the money late.
2:57
SPEAKER_00: Big third and 10, Savion Williams, and then a touchdown of Christian Watson to take the lead.
3:02
SPEAKER_00: And the Giants, par for the course, answer that with a 15-play, 85-yard drive to go up 20 to 19.
3:10
SPEAKER_00: But when it's winning time, the defense can't get a stop.
3:13
SPEAKER_00: They remind me of the Jets.
3:15
SPEAKER_00: Jameis Winston's last shot ends up with a pick in the end zone.
3:18
SPEAKER_00: Competitive and gritty, but still not good enough.
3:22
SPEAKER_00: That's who the Giants are right now.
3:24
SPEAKER_00: The almost team.
3:25
SPEAKER_00: And then layered on top of that is Abdul Carter.
3:28
SPEAKER_00: Top three pick.
3:30
SPEAKER_00: Supposed to be the next great edge rusher in New York.
3:33
SPEAKER_00: And the story is him getting benched for the first year is because he missed a walkthrough.
3:37
SPEAKER_00: Then he has to come out because none of the coaches have his back.
3:41
SPEAKER_00: He has to correct reports that he was sleeping or that he overslept a meeting and that he was in the facility.
3:47
SPEAKER_00: He was asleep in the trainer's room, or he lost track of time in the trainer's room.
3:51
SPEAKER_00: He's saying honest mistake.
3:59
SPEAKER_00: End of story.
4:00
SPEAKER_00: Look, just because you wanted to wear LT's number does not mean that you can miss meetings like LT did.
4:06
SPEAKER_00: So are you going to be the guy who turns this into a grown man lesson and finishes out strong?
4:12
SPEAKER_00: Or are you going to let this break you?
4:13
SPEAKER_00: You're going to be the guy that almost that's always almost great with a story attached.
4:19
SPEAKER_00: That's the league testing you early, young man.
4:22
SPEAKER_00: Look, the talent is obvious.
4:23
SPEAKER_00: The sacks aren't there yet, and the team is two and nine.
4:28
SPEAKER_00: So for the Giants, this whole season is basically one long who are you really test from top to bottom.
4:35
SPEAKER_00: Now, across town, the Jets have finally answered one question.
4:40
SPEAKER_00: Justin Fields is on the bench and Tyrod Taylor is in.
4:44
SPEAKER_00: Aaron Glenn basically got to the I've seen enough stage.
4:48
SPEAKER_00: Fields just never got there, man.
4:51
SPEAKER_00: The passing game has been dead last in the league.
4:54
SPEAKER_00: He has one big everyone rallies around a performance after Woody Johnson calls him out.
4:59
SPEAKER_00: And then it goes right back into the mud.
5:01
SPEAKER_00: 51 yards against Cleveland and 116 yards on Thursday against New England.
5:05
SPEAKER_00: I mean, at some point you can't sell upside to a locker room that's watching three and outs every other drive.
5:12
SPEAKER_00: So in comes Tyrod, 36 years old.
5:15
SPEAKER_00: You know exactly what he is.
5:17
SPEAKER_00: Steady, veteran, doesn't make a ton of catastrophic mistakes, but not changing your franchise's future anytime either.
5:26
SPEAKER_00: He can run the offense and keep you in games, and that's kind of where the Jets are right now.
5:31
SPEAKER_00: They're stuck between trying to be respectable on Sundays and also very obviously lining up the ammo to go get the guy in the draft with all those extra picks.
5:41
SPEAKER_00: You got two in 2026 and even more in 2027.
5:46
SPEAKER_00: You can feel this organization is struggling to stay respectable under the new regime and show that they know what they're talking about, but they also want to set themselves up in the best position possible for the next two years.
6:00
SPEAKER_00: This is not just a one-year rebuild to turn this big ship around, as Aaron Glenn would say.
6:07
SPEAKER_00: So zooming out to the rest of week 11, some teams made very loud statements about who they are this week.
6:16
SPEAKER_00: And I'll start with the Carolina Atlanta game because it was a welcome to the league moment for two franchises going in the complete opposite emotional directions.
6:25
SPEAKER_00: Bryce Young drops a franchise record 448 yards, gets a 30-27 overtime win, and suddenly he looks like the guy that Carolina thought they were drafting all along.
6:38
SPEAKER_00: Hitting McMillan, hitting Leggett, ripping that offense up and down the field.
6:43
SPEAKER_00: And on the other side, Michael Penix Jr.
6:46
SPEAKER_00: goes down with another knee injury.
6:49
SPEAKER_00: And now he's done for the season.
6:52
SPEAKER_00: Atlanta is now three and seven, and the future quarterback is going to be standing in street clothes on the sideline.
6:58
SPEAKER_00: And they have no first round pick this year.
7:01
SPEAKER_00: The supposed smallest guy in the field that didn't get drafted by them is apparently outplaying everybody now.
7:08
SPEAKER_00: It's a pretty brutal who's who moment in that division.
7:12
SPEAKER_00: Atlanta ends up getting swept by Carolina in a division that you thought you would be competing with the Bucs for.
7:20
SPEAKER_00: Buffalo and Tampa.
7:22
SPEAKER_00: Well, that was just Josh Allen reminding everybody what his ceiling really looks like.
7:27
SPEAKER_00: Three passing touchdowns, three rushing touchdowns, a 44-32 shootout, which I called by the way.
7:34
SPEAKER_00: And he's out there playing like it's Madden on rookie.
7:38
SPEAKER_00: The stat line is disgusting in the best way, but it also kind of exposes what both teams are.
7:45
SPEAKER_00: The Bills are that team where when it's good, it is terrifyingly good.
7:52
SPEAKER_00: And then you remember they were just stuck in neutral the week before in Miami.
7:57
SPEAKER_00: And Tampa shows you it's the team where the quarterback can keep them hanging around in games, but the defense eventually will always get cooked.
8:06
SPEAKER_00: Fun, chaotic, late game drives, but you don't trust either one of them as far as you can throw them in January.
8:16
SPEAKER_00: Then you got the Chiefs and Broncos, which might be the biggest identity flip in the entire league.
8:24
SPEAKER_00: Denver wins 22-19, and Will Lutz gets his redemption story with the walk-off kick after getting blocked in the same situation last year.
8:34
SPEAKER_00: Bo Nicks remains steady, and the Broncos, don't look now, are 9-2 with eight straight wins.
8:41
SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, the Chiefs, they're 5-5.
8:44
SPEAKER_00: And 0-5 in one-score games this year after going 12-0 in those same spots last year.
8:50
SPEAKER_00: That's a wild stat.
8:51
SPEAKER_00: That's one to bring up at the water cooler.
8:54
SPEAKER_00: Mahomes still has those stretches where he looks like the best quarterback on earth.
9:00
SPEAKER_00: But this team is sloppy, they're penalty prone.
9:05
SPEAKER_00: And suddenly they're hanging around the playoff bubble instead of sitting atop the AFC throne.
9:11
SPEAKER_00: If I told you in August that by Thanksgiving that we might miss the playoffs conversation was happening in Kansas City and not Denver, you'd have me checked for a concussion.
9:21
SPEAKER_00: Now, on the flip side of that, a quiet story that no one's talking about, because I don't think anybody knows, you got Miles Garrett in Cleveland, 15 sacks through 10 games, four more against Baltimore last week, and he's on pace to break Strahan's single season record.
9:38
SPEAKER_00: He's playing out of his mind on a two and eight team that can't score, can't protect its quarterbacks, Poral, and just watch Shador Sanders go four for 16 in his debut.
9:50
SPEAKER_00: So you're getting a Hall of Fame level season happening in basically complete silence because the Browns are the Browns.
9:57
SPEAKER_00: That's the saddest version of who are they really?
10:01
SPEAKER_00: And that answer is easy.
10:02
SPEAKER_00: They are the we have the scariest defender in football, and it doesn't matter at all.
10:08
SPEAKER_00: So let's spin that into week 12 because this identity thing is baked into every big game this week.
10:15
SPEAKER_00: First up, Steelers at Bears.
10:18
SPEAKER_00: It's a fascinating spot.
10:20
SPEAKER_00: Pittsburgh is sitting in a good spot record-wise, but Aaron Rodgers just fractured his non-throwing wrist.
10:28
SPEAKER_00: And he's talking about needing to feel like he can protect himself more than just play through pain.
10:33
SPEAKER_00: Mason Rudolph is ready, and if he can't go, Will Howard is lurking.
10:39
SPEAKER_00: That's terrible.
10:41
SPEAKER_00: But you've got this veteran quarterback who hates sitting facing a team that he has religiously owned in his entire career, and it's a year where his body is starting to betray him.
10:52
SPEAKER_00: Chicago, meanwhile, has quietly been better at home.
10:57
SPEAKER_00: The defense is getting scrappy, and Caleb Williams is already further along in his development curve than some people want to admit.
11:05
SPEAKER_00: Even in the games where he's not lighting up the box score, he's reading defenses, him and Ben Johnson have clicked.
11:11
SPEAKER_00: Things are starting to look decent in Chicago.
11:15
SPEAKER_00: But that game is a mirror for both sides.
11:18
SPEAKER_00: Is Pittsburgh a legit contender?
11:21
SPEAKER_00: Or are they just a Rogers nostalgia tour riding a nasty defense?
11:27
SPEAKER_00: And are the Bears actually turning a corner?
11:31
SPEAKER_00: Or are they just teasing their fans like they always do?
11:34
SPEAKER_00: Now the next game you should be paying attention to this week is Colts at Chiefs.
11:38
SPEAKER_00: And it's the same thing, just on a bigger stage.
11:41
SPEAKER_00: India's 8-2 leading the AFC South.
11:45
SPEAKER_00: Daniel Jones looks like a completely different player in this system.
11:49
SPEAKER_00: And Jonathan Taylor, week in and week out, is showing you why he is that dude.
11:54
SPEAKER_00: They're coming off a bye after a crazy overtime win in Atlanta.
11:58
SPEAKER_00: And they've been ready and prepared every week anyway.
12:01
SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, Kansas City is 5-5, way behind Denver, turning it over, committing penalties, and looking honestly like they forgot how to play clean football.
12:13
SPEAKER_00: So this is the game where we find out is Indy actually for real going into Arrowhead and getting it done?
12:20
SPEAKER_00: Or are they just a team taking advantage of a soft schedule and one score luck?
12:25
SPEAKER_00: And for the Chiefs, are they still that lurking boogeyman, or has their time come and gone?
12:33
SPEAKER_00: Are they just another middle of the pack AFC team?
12:36
SPEAKER_00: I'm actually picking this game for the roll in the dice with Rice segment later.
12:41
SPEAKER_00: But for now, this is a huge show me who you are spot for Mahomes, for Daniel Jones, for both teams, really.
12:53
SPEAKER_00: And then lastly, there's the Eagles Cowboys, which always feels like a street fight in a stadium.
13:00
SPEAKER_00: Philly is 8-2 with basically no offensive rhythm.
13:04
SPEAKER_00: Jalen Hurts is apparently hearing whispers about guys being frustrated with his style.
13:10
SPEAKER_00: Look, the numbers say the passing game has fallen off.
13:12
SPEAKER_00: And Saquon Barkley isn't the same stat monster he was last year.
13:17
SPEAKER_00: But don't look now.
13:18
SPEAKER_00: They're still the best red zone team in the league.
13:22
SPEAKER_00: And they never turn the ball over.
13:24
SPEAKER_00: So are they broken or are they just boring and efficient?
13:28
SPEAKER_00: Is this a slump or is this just what the 2025 Eagles look like now?
13:33
SPEAKER_00: Dallas, on the other hand, complete opposite.
13:37
SPEAKER_00: They're 4'5-1 with one of the most explosive passing attacks in football.
13:42
SPEAKER_00: I mean, Dak just hung four touchdowns on the Raiders after a brutal week emotionally with the Marshawn Nealand tragedy.
13:50
SPEAKER_00: And on the other side of it, you got CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens getting benched for a series for missing curfew, then coming back in and absolutely cooking up the defense.
14:00
SPEAKER_00: Not to mention, don't look now.
14:04
SPEAKER_00: This Dallas defense that was pretty bad now looks halfway decent.
14:10
SPEAKER_00: Quinny Williams and Kenny Clark up the middle, no one's running on them.
14:14
SPEAKER_00: It's as simple as that.
14:15
SPEAKER_00: Now you might be able to still pass the ball on him, but if the Eagles can't pass the ball and their strength is the run, you see where I'm kind of going with this?
14:27
SPEAKER_00: Plus, not to mention there's already of the bad blood, you already now add in the spitgate subplot from week one with Jalen Carter spitting on Dak before the game even started and gets tossed before that snap even went off.
14:41
SPEAKER_00: This game is layers on layers on layers.
14:44
SPEAKER_00: It's a Shrek Ogre Onion.
14:46
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
14:48
SPEAKER_00: Are the Cowboys the talented but unserious team that can't stay out of their own way?
14:53
SPEAKER_00: Or is this the week where they start the we're not dead yet March?
14:58
SPEAKER_00: Can they make a play?
15:00
SPEAKER_00: I'm actually picking this game later in the Rollin the Dice with Rice segment too, so stick around for those picks.
15:07
SPEAKER_00: But this is the purest rivalry game version of who are you really?
15:11
SPEAKER_00: We got on the board.
15:13
SPEAKER_00: And it's going to be one that I can't wait to tune in for, to be honest with you.
15:17
SPEAKER_00: Lastly, a couple quick hitters around the league that fit the theme just to wrap up this segment.
15:22
SPEAKER_00: Don't look now.
15:23
SPEAKER_00: Joe Burrow has now stacked back-to-back full practices, taking all the reps, looking like himself, and the Bengals are sitting at 3-7 staring at the Patriots.
15:35
SPEAKER_00: So Cincinnati has a couple questions to answer themselves.
15:39
SPEAKER_00: Are you going to rush the franchise back just to chase pride in a lost year?
15:46
SPEAKER_00: Or are you finally going to be the boring, smart team that protects its quarterback from himself or from his own line?
15:54
SPEAKER_00: From anything.
15:55
SPEAKER_00: Really?
15:57
SPEAKER_00: In Houston, CJ Stroud is out with the concussion for Thursday night's game.
16:01
SPEAKER_00: And then we got news that Joe Mixon is now officially not expected to be back at all this season with the foot.
16:07
SPEAKER_00: And somehow they're still hanging around at 500.
16:10
SPEAKER_00: Davis Mills is stringing wins together, and Woody Marks took over the backfield.
16:15
SPEAKER_00: You can feel that this organization is trying to grow up into like a consistent playoff team like they used to be, instead of just a cute story sophomore slump.
16:26
SPEAKER_00: These are the weeks where you separate those two things.
16:29
SPEAKER_00: This is a big test for Houston at home against a Buffalo team that if you let them, they'll score 70.
16:37
SPEAKER_00: But their defense is set is sketchy, and Buffalo could be had.
16:48
SPEAKER_00: As for the locals on the betting side, I'll dig into this more in the picks.
16:54
SPEAKER_00: But Jets, Ravens, and Giants, Lions fit the identity story too.
16:59
SPEAKER_00: The Ravens are rolling.
17:02
SPEAKER_00: The line is massive.
17:05
SPEAKER_00: I think the Jets play hard for Aaron Glenn.
17:08
SPEAKER_00: And I think Tyrod keeps it at least a little bit respectable.
17:13
SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
17:14
SPEAKER_00: I mean, who's he gonna throw the ball to and can they catch it if he does throw it to him?
17:21
SPEAKER_00: Can Brees do Brees things?
17:24
SPEAKER_00: I'll uh I'll go a little more into detail on it when I make my pick for the game.
17:29
SPEAKER_00: And as for the Giants, well, heading into Detroit, into the dome, against a Lions team that plays like it's on fast forward.
17:39
SPEAKER_00: That's another who are you test for a young quarterback coming off a concussion and a defense that has struggled on the back end.
17:47
SPEAKER_00: So yeah, uh week 11 gave a lot of teams a mirror, and week 12 is basically asking, do you like what you see or are you ready to admit what you actually are?
17:58
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna I'm gonna take a quick breath.
18:00
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna sip some more tea, keep this voice nice and tight, and then I'll get into on the fantasy side.
18:06
SPEAKER_00: Some matchups, some panic meters, all that, and then we'll roll right into the rolling the dice with rice segment in the wolf this part.
18:14
SPEAKER_00: Keep it right here.
18:33
SPEAKER_00: And let's continue on with the who are you really world for a couple minutes.
18:38
SPEAKER_00: Because fantasy and betting are basically just you trying to figure out if these teams and players are who you say they are or if they're catfishing you.
18:48
SPEAKER_00: We'll start with fantasy first.
18:50
SPEAKER_00: We're almost in playoff mode now, and every lineup decision is basically an interrogation.
18:56
SPEAKER_00: Can I trust you or are you going to ruin my Sunday?
19:00
SPEAKER_00: Quarterbacks will start us off, and we start off with Jared Goff.
19:04
SPEAKER_00: On paper this year, he's been just fine.
19:09
SPEAKER_00: Mid QB two, a bunch of weeks in that QB 18 to 22 range.
19:14
SPEAKER_00: Nothing crazy, serviceable, but not great.
19:19
SPEAKER_00: But this week, home in the dome, against the Giants defense at his bottom three in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, yeah.
19:30
SPEAKER_00: This is the week you decide who Jared Goff really is for you.
19:33
SPEAKER_00: Is he just a boring streamer you throw in when you're desperate, or is he your is he your I'm riding this into the playoffs QB one?
19:44
SPEAKER_00: Look, against the Giants secondary indoors with that offense, I'm in.
19:49
SPEAKER_00: If you've been rotating, guys, Goff is 100% startable this week.
19:53
SPEAKER_00: On the opposite end of that spectrum, Baker Mayfield.
19:56
SPEAKER_00: I love Baker for real life chaos.
19:59
SPEAKER_00: I love him for backdoor covers.
20:02
SPEAKER_00: I love him for drama.
20:04
SPEAKER_00: But fantasy-wise, this week, I I don't love him at all.
20:08
SPEAKER_00: He's been QB 14 in points per game, respectable.
20:12
SPEAKER_00: Hasn't been a disaster, but now he gets the Rams, who are quietly one of the worst matchups for quarterbacks across the league.
20:21
SPEAKER_00: They're top six toughest against passes, and they don't give up explosive plays.
20:26
SPEAKER_00: Hell, they just turned Sam Darnold's MVP campaign into dust in four quarters.
20:32
SPEAKER_00: If you're in a one quarterback league and you have any kind of decent pivot, this is probably not the spot to get cute with Baker.
20:40
SPEAKER_00: Real life, I still think he can hang in that game.
20:43
SPEAKER_00: Fantasy, um, I'm leaning sit.
20:47
SPEAKER_00: On to the running backs.
20:48
SPEAKER_00: Woody Marks in Houston Thursday night.
20:51
SPEAKER_00: This is one of those guys where the usage is screaming louder than the value name.
20:56
SPEAKER_00: Last two weeks, clear running back one work, gets over 70% of snaps, way more carries than Nick Chubb.
21:03
SPEAKER_00: Now he gets Buffalo, who just got absolutely cooked by Sean Tucker.
21:07
SPEAKER_00: And have given up the second most fantasy points to running backs all year, believe it or not.
21:12
SPEAKER_00: The only risk in this game is game script.
21:16
SPEAKER_00: David Mills, excuse me, Davis Mills, and the Bills are favored.
21:21
SPEAKER_00: We'll see how it pans out, but volume plus matchup, Marks is a very real running back too this week.
21:28
SPEAKER_00: So if you're sitting there staring at him and some other dusty name brand vet, don't overthink it.
21:34
SPEAKER_00: Woody Marks is telling you who he is right now.
21:37
SPEAKER_00: On the other sideline of that, who are you really conversation?
21:42
SPEAKER_00: Tyrone Tracy, the usage has been good and the tape has been fun.
21:48
SPEAKER_00: And he played well against Green Bay.
21:50
SPEAKER_00: Nothing to take away from him.
21:52
SPEAKER_00: But now he runs into Detroit.
21:54
SPEAKER_00: And the Lions are brutal on running backs.
21:58
SPEAKER_00: Second fewest fantasy points to the position, especially stingy on receiving yards to backs, which is his whole game.
22:06
SPEAKER_00: And the nasty part, the real disgusting part, all of the goal line work since Scatterbell went down has gone to Devin Singletary.
22:15
SPEAKER_00: Every single snap inside the five, every touch.
22:20
SPEAKER_00: So what is Tracy really this week?
22:23
SPEAKER_00: He's a volume-ish flex in a bad matchup with no goal line equity either.
22:28
SPEAKER_00: So if you're loaded at running back or you can spare to sit him, you can absolutely get away from him this week.
22:35
SPEAKER_00: As for the receivers, Devontae Smith versus Dallas.
22:39
SPEAKER_00: I don't even know why I need to say this, but apparently it needs to be said out loud.
22:43
SPEAKER_00: You start him.
22:45
SPEAKER_00: The box score last week was gross, I get it, but he's too good.
22:49
SPEAKER_00: His role is too solid, and the Cowboys defense is giving up the most fantasy points to wide receivers.
22:56
SPEAKER_00: If you're benching Devonta in this matchup, you're managing scared or you drafted in a league of four people.
23:03
SPEAKER_00: On the flip side of that, Khalil Shakir, I like the player.
23:08
SPEAKER_00: I like the situation.
23:10
SPEAKER_00: I love the quarterback.
23:12
SPEAKER_00: But for a guy who's supposed to be the wide receiver one in Buffalo right now, the usage has not matched his vibes.
23:19
SPEAKER_00: Target share is middling, route participation is fine, but not great.
23:24
SPEAKER_00: And last week he had one catch for negative yards in a 44-point game.
23:28
SPEAKER_00: How's that even possible?
23:30
SPEAKER_00: Now he gets Houston, who's been the top three stage against wideouts.
23:35
SPEAKER_00: They are really good versus the slot receivers, where Shakir lives, and their defensive line is dominant.
23:43
SPEAKER_00: If you're rolling them out, you're basically praying for a broken play with Josh Allen, and I'd rather play someone with a cleaner, tighter role.
23:50
SPEAKER_00: Speaking of tighter role, tight ends, this is where the matchups get hilarious.
23:56
SPEAKER_00: Hunter Henry against the Bengals.
23:59
SPEAKER_00: Cincinnati is giving up almost 19 fantasy points per game to tight ends.
24:05
SPEAKER_00: That's not just bad.
24:07
SPEAKER_00: That's a full tier worse than anybody else.
24:11
SPEAKER_00: They are literally the fix whatever's wrong with your tight end defense.
24:15
SPEAKER_00: Henry's role this year has been meh, I guess.
24:19
SPEAKER_00: Weak target share around 16%, couple of usable weeks here and there.
24:24
SPEAKER_00: But this matchup, if you're streaming, he is absolutely 100% on the list.
24:30
SPEAKER_00: In that weird, ugly Patriots over-the-middle offense.
24:34
SPEAKER_00: He actually has a path to be a top 10 tight end this week.
24:37
SPEAKER_00: And on the flip side, Dalton Schultz against the Bills.
24:42
SPEAKER_00: Schultz is one of those guys who lives right on that line.
24:45
SPEAKER_00: He has a lot of good catches, a lot of volume, not too many yards, touchdown dependent.
24:53
SPEAKER_00: It's a good matchup, you feel okay.
24:55
SPEAKER_00: It's a bad matchup, you feel gross for starting up.
24:58
SPEAKER_00: And this is the worst matchup possible.
25:01
SPEAKER_00: Buffalo allows the fewest fantasy points to tight ends in the league.
25:05
SPEAKER_00: With Stroud out, Davis Mills running this thing.
25:09
SPEAKER_00: I'm not forcing Schultz into lineups.
25:12
SPEAKER_00: If you have literally anything in that, like Hunter Henry, David Njoku, Muzz Musgrave, Tier, I'd lean that way.
25:21
SPEAKER_00: But if you gotta play him, you gotta play him.
25:25
SPEAKER_00: I would look elsewhere if you can though.
25:27
SPEAKER_00: Now let's transition into the panic meter for this season.
25:32
SPEAKER_00: The be honest with yourself, guys.
25:35
SPEAKER_00: A couple quick who are you really check-ins with some guys?
25:40
SPEAKER_00: And first on the list is Ashton Janty.
25:45
SPEAKER_00: The Raiders line is a joke.
25:47
SPEAKER_00: The volume is fine, and the production is like running back 18, 19-ish.
25:51
SPEAKER_00: That's not bad at all.
25:53
SPEAKER_00: But if you drafted him to be a top eight league winner, you gotta reset the expectations, my friend.
25:59
SPEAKER_00: He is now a mid-running back to you're probably starting him, but you're not building your week around him for sure.
26:07
SPEAKER_00: Xavier Worthy, I wanted to buy the post-buy bump as much as everybody.
26:12
SPEAKER_00: And it just didn't happen.
26:14
SPEAKER_00: He's clearly behind Rasheed Rice and Travis Kelsey.
26:18
SPEAKER_00: And now this Chiefs' offense just looks broken half the time.
26:22
SPEAKER_00: At this point, he's boom or bust wide receiver four.
26:25
SPEAKER_00: You can stash him, wait for a better matchup, but you cannot pretend that he's an automatic start anymore.
26:33
SPEAKER_00: DK Metcalf falls in that category too now.
26:35
SPEAKER_00: This is five straight games under 55 yards in a conservative Pittsburgh offense.
26:41
SPEAKER_00: Still a big name, still a monster talent, but the environment is dragging him down.
26:47
SPEAKER_00: I would treat him like a low-end wide receiver three and play your matchups, check your corners.
26:52
SPEAKER_00: Tony Pollard hasn't had a touchdown in five games.
26:56
SPEAKER_00: The Titans offense is a bonfire.
26:59
SPEAKER_00: It's a dumpster fire.
27:02
SPEAKER_00: You know the deal.
27:02
SPEAKER_00: If you're starting Pollard, it's because you have somebody on a bye or you're desperate.
27:07
SPEAKER_00: It's not because the name on the back of the jersey.
27:09
SPEAKER_00: And he's a good running back, but this offense is a joke.
27:14
SPEAKER_00: Last guy on the list, Quentin Johnson.
27:17
SPEAKER_00: Early season mirage, man.
27:18
SPEAKER_00: It was fun when it started.
27:20
SPEAKER_00: Looked like he could finally catch the ball.
27:22
SPEAKER_00: Justin Herbert could hit him deep.
27:24
SPEAKER_00: But the Chargers line is banged up.
27:26
SPEAKER_00: This passing game is nowhere near as explosive as it is, and he has completely disappeared because of it.
27:31
SPEAKER_00: That's why Ladd McConkey has gotten such a bump in volume, which I told you multiple weeks ago if you listen to the podcast.
27:38
SPEAKER_00: Look, you're not cutting him in deep leagues, but you are absolutely allowed to bench him until something changes.
27:46
SPEAKER_00: That's the fantasy side of who are you really.
27:50
SPEAKER_00: Now, time to talk about the version of the question that comes with spreads, totals, and heartbreaks by hooks.
27:58
SPEAKER_00: Rolling the dice with Rice, week 12.
28:00
SPEAKER_00: And before we get to there, let's clean up last week's ticket first.
28:03
SPEAKER_00: The card went 3-2.
28:05
SPEAKER_00: Bucks at Bills over 48.
28:07
SPEAKER_00: Check, that was easy.
28:08
SPEAKER_00: Could have taken the over live a couple times.
28:11
SPEAKER_00: Seahawks at Rams over 48.
28:14
SPEAKER_00: Never really got there.
28:15
SPEAKER_00: They were short by a touchdown.
28:17
SPEAKER_00: Sam Darnold got beat up.
28:18
SPEAKER_00: Is what it is.
28:20
SPEAKER_00: Packers, minus six and a half versus the Giants.
28:23
SPEAKER_00: Cover.
28:23
SPEAKER_00: And it was at 7.5, but I told you to buy it down to 6.5.
28:27
SPEAKER_00: Jets Thursday night plus 14.5.
28:30
SPEAKER_00: The 13.5 that it closed at actually did cover.
28:33
SPEAKER_00: Nice, ugly cover.
28:34
SPEAKER_00: You love that.
28:35
SPEAKER_00: And my can't miss God, this is the easiest bet of the week.
28:40
SPEAKER_00: Jalen Warren over 76.5 rushing yards.
28:44
SPEAKER_00: Absolutely brutal beat.
28:47
SPEAKER_00: He had 62 yards at halftime.
28:50
SPEAKER_00: 62.
28:51
SPEAKER_00: And then he tweaks his ankle in the third and never comes back in.
28:55
SPEAKER_00: You're sitting there staring at your slip like, really?
28:58
SPEAKER_00: Really?
28:58
SPEAKER_00: Not anything?
29:00
SPEAKER_00: And on topic, look, I'm not saying this is exactly why Aaron Rodgers got hurt, but Warren is a really good pass protector.
29:08
SPEAKER_00: And the second that he got out of the game, the Steelers are asking the football gods for trouble.
29:13
SPEAKER_00: So I'm just putting two and two together here.
29:16
SPEAKER_00: So the card going three and two last week, that now puts our season record at 25 and 25.
29:21
SPEAKER_00: Back up to 500, baby.
29:23
SPEAKER_00: We were 5-17 at one point.
29:25
SPEAKER_00: Anyway, we move.
29:28
SPEAKER_00: We move forward.
29:29
SPEAKER_00: We must always move forward.
29:30
SPEAKER_00: So the week 12 card, same theme.
29:32
SPEAKER_00: Who are you really, right?
29:34
SPEAKER_00: Game one, Colts at Chiefs.
29:37
SPEAKER_00: And I'm taking the Colts plus three and a half.
29:40
SPEAKER_00: The market is still hanging numbers like this as if the Chiefs are the boogeyman still.
29:45
SPEAKER_00: They're not.
29:46
SPEAKER_00: Not this year, at least.
29:48
SPEAKER_00: They're five and five.
29:50
SPEAKER_00: They just lost to Denver again.
29:52
SPEAKER_00: They're 0 5 in one score games this season after going 12 0 in them last year.
29:57
SPEAKER_00: This is not the same team.
30:00
SPEAKER_00: Indy, meanwhile, 8-2, coming off a bye.
30:04
SPEAKER_00: Daniel Jones is playing real big boy football.
30:08
SPEAKER_00: Jonathan Taylor looks like Jonathan Taylor.
30:10
SPEAKER_00: Jonathan Taylor looks like LT.
30:11
SPEAKER_00: Jonathan Taylor looks like Adrian Peterson.
30:14
SPEAKER_00: This isn't some feisty underdog.
30:16
SPEAKER_00: This is the better team on current forum getting more than a field goal.
30:21
SPEAKER_00: I get it.
30:22
SPEAKER_00: Arrowhead is still Arrowhead.
30:23
SPEAKER_00: Mahomes is still Mahomes.
30:25
SPEAKER_00: But the question here is simple.
30:26
SPEAKER_00: Who are the Chiefs right now?
30:29
SPEAKER_00: A brand name?
30:30
SPEAKER_00: Sure.
30:31
SPEAKER_00: A juggernaut?
30:32
SPEAKER_00: Can be.
30:33
SPEAKER_00: But until they show me different than this season, I'll take the eight and two team getting points.
30:39
SPEAKER_00: Give me a well-coached Colts team that isn't scared of anybody right now.
30:44
SPEAKER_00: Game two, Eagles at Cowboys.
30:47
SPEAKER_00: And I'm going Cowboys plus three and a half.
30:50
SPEAKER_00: This one has trap written all over it.
30:53
SPEAKER_00: The books are basically daring you to take the home dog with the big offense in a division game.
31:01
SPEAKER_00: And you know what?
31:02
SPEAKER_00: I'm walking right into it.
31:03
SPEAKER_00: I don't care.
31:04
SPEAKER_00: Dallas offense has been explosive all year.
31:07
SPEAKER_00: And the Eagles defense is their identity of that team right now.
31:10
SPEAKER_00: And they've been incredible.
31:11
SPEAKER_00: I'll give them credit.
31:13
SPEAKER_00: But offensively, they are clunky.
31:15
SPEAKER_00: They're disjointed, and they're living off like random red zone magic.
31:20
SPEAKER_00: You've got reports of frustration of Jalen Hurts' style.
31:23
SPEAKER_00: You got AJ Brown being annoyed about his usage.
31:26
SPEAKER_00: Lane Johnson is banged up with a Liz Frank.
31:29
SPEAKER_00: That's a lot of noise for a team laying over a field goal on the road in a fist fight.
31:35
SPEAKER_00: This is one of those who are you really moments for both sides.
31:38
SPEAKER_00: Are the Eagles a true juggernaut or just the team that wins ugly because everybody else is worse?
31:44
SPEAKER_00: Or are the Cowboys actually a threat?
31:46
SPEAKER_00: Or just a fantasy stat machine.
31:50
SPEAKER_00: Look, I'll be the sucker.
31:51
SPEAKER_00: I'll take the three and a half at home and live with whatever comes with it.
31:55
SPEAKER_00: I don't care.
31:55
SPEAKER_00: Cowboys plus three and a half.
31:58
SPEAKER_00: Game three, Bucks at Rams, and we're going over 49.5.
32:03
SPEAKER_00: Sometimes you just don't overcomplicate it.
32:05
SPEAKER_00: Baker did me right last week with Josh Allen, so did that defense.
32:09
SPEAKER_00: Baker keeps Tampa in games, and he also keeps his defense on the field, and they give it right back.
32:17
SPEAKER_00: The Rams offense with Stafford has been a wagon.
32:20
SPEAKER_00: They just forced Seattle into a rock fight with four picks on one side and still found a way to put up enough offense to cover the over.
32:28
SPEAKER_00: Puka, Adams, Kyron.
32:31
SPEAKER_00: That group can score on anybody.
32:34
SPEAKER_00: This feels a lot like last week's Bucks game.
32:36
SPEAKER_00: Long touchdowns, blown coverages, couple ugly turnovers.
32:41
SPEAKER_00: Suddenly you look up in the fourth quarter and you're sweating it over with 51 points already on the board.
32:46
SPEAKER_00: Until I see either one of these defenses consistently step up, I'm going to keep leading on the fireworks.
32:51
SPEAKER_00: Now for the locals, a couple New York adjacent picks for the Siccos who really care about betting on two and nine teams.
33:01
SPEAKER_00: Line is currently 13.5.
33:03
SPEAKER_00: Give me the Jets, but I'm buying it up to 14.5.
33:06
SPEAKER_00: The Ravens are rolling, no doubt about it.
33:08
SPEAKER_00: And Lamar basically said to himself, said it himself, since he came back, it's either win or our season is done.
33:15
SPEAKER_00: And this is a perfect get right spot at home.
33:21
SPEAKER_00: But here's the thing this Jets group is still playing hard for Aaron Glenn.
33:29
SPEAKER_00: And with Tyrod Taylor taking over now, you at least have a grown-up under center who can get the ball out of his hands maybe more than five seconds.
33:39
SPEAKER_00: Someone who can maybe keep things on schedule, maybe open up the passing game so it backs the linebackers off so Brees can do Brees things.
33:47
SPEAKER_00: And plus you're going against a Ravens defense that's really not that special.
33:52
SPEAKER_00: Look, I do not think the Jets win this game.
33:54
SPEAKER_00: If they go into Baltimore and beat Baltimore, I'll be doing cartwheels at the bar.
34:00
SPEAKER_00: I do think that they can be annoying enough to stay inside two touchdowns, though.
34:05
SPEAKER_00: So if Tyrod stays upright and they don't implode on special teams, which has been good as of late, I will happily grab the hook at 14.5 and pray for a backdoor cover.
34:15
SPEAKER_00: Now the Giants at Lions, the number's 10.5 right now.
34:20
SPEAKER_00: I'm going to buy it down to 9.5, and I'm going to take the Lions minus 9.5.
34:25
SPEAKER_00: This is another game for Jackson Dart, for Abdul Carter, for Mike Kafka.
34:29
SPEAKER_00: Who are you really?
34:31
SPEAKER_00: The Giants have been hanging around in these games, and I like the fight in them, but Detroit in the dome is different.
34:37
SPEAKER_00: I've been saying it all episode.
34:39
SPEAKER_00: They play faster, they score more, and that passing game can absolutely carve up a shaky secondary, which is exactly what the Giants have.
34:48
SPEAKER_00: Dart should be back under center after the concussion, which in and itself is his own test.
34:55
SPEAKER_00: I mean, can Kafka call a game that lets him use Dart's legs without putting him in danger?
35:01
SPEAKER_00: Or is Aiden Hutchinson just going to turn this into a personal highlight reel?
35:05
SPEAKER_00: Jump a throw and have the Lions defense sprinting down the sidelines, celebrating a pick six.
35:10
SPEAKER_00: I'll buy it down under 10 just for safety, but I like Detroit to flex here and remind the Giants exactly where they are in that rebuild.
35:19
SPEAKER_00: That's the ticket for this week.
35:21
SPEAKER_00: Fantasy lineups locked in, slips are set, and emotions are fully exposed.
35:27
SPEAKER_00: Now we just wait to find out who actually shows up on Sunday.
35:31
SPEAKER_00: But it's not just the NFL.
35:32
SPEAKER_00: Over on the Knicks side, between Brunson's ankle, OG's hamstring, league-wide injuries to big names, and whatever is going on in Dallas, the NBA's got its own who are you really question going on.
35:45
SPEAKER_00: Keep it here, talking some hoopstacks.
36:00
SPEAKER_00: Let's stay on brand or I guess on theme with the episode of Who Are You Really?
36:07
SPEAKER_00: And slide over to the NBA for a minute because a couple teams basically filled out personality questionnaires this week.
36:15
SPEAKER_00: So Knicks first, because of course it's you know you gotta start with the Knicks.
36:20
SPEAKER_00: This week was such a Knicks week.
36:24
SPEAKER_00: You go down to Miami, you're banged up, they're banged up, and the whole game feels like a coin flip.
36:30
SPEAKER_00: Someone dropped under the couch.
36:33
SPEAKER_00: No Brunson, no OG.
36:36
SPEAKER_00: You're asking Carl Anthony Towns to be the grown-up.
36:40
SPEAKER_00: You're asking Deuce McBride to run the show, and you still almost steal it.
36:45
SPEAKER_00: Towns goes 22 and 16, McBride gives you 25, Bridges does Bridges things, and you still walk out of there with that dumb, annoying two-point loss feeling.
36:57
SPEAKER_00: And it wasn't just the score, it was it was how.
37:01
SPEAKER_00: You get that chaotic last possession where it looks like where goaltend, they call it on the floor, Knicks challenge it, and they get it overturned.
37:10
SPEAKER_00: Then you got Towns living on the offensive glass at the end, just throwing up tip attempts one after another, looking like he's playing 21 by himself, and none of them fall in.
37:19
SPEAKER_00: And you're watching it thinking, yeah, this is what a team with no organizer looks like late on the road.
37:26
SPEAKER_00: That game was a who are you without Jalen Brunson test.
37:30
SPEAKER_00: And the answer is fun, scrappy, talented, but not quite put together enough to close.
37:38
SPEAKER_00: Then two nights later you go to Dallas and you see the exact flip side of that same coin.
37:44
SPEAKER_00: Brunson comes back from the ankle, drops 28 like he took a long launch, and the whole team suddenly looks like it remembers how to play winning basketball.
37:53
SPEAKER_00: Same roster, totally different identity.
37:57
SPEAKER_00: And the biggest thing for me wasn't even the points, it was the last minute.
38:00
SPEAKER_00: Brunson could have absolutely hunted that revenge game moment.
38:06
SPEAKER_00: Former team, clutch guy, ball in his hands, down the stretch in the building.
38:12
SPEAKER_00: 99% of dudes in this league pull that three, and they live with it.
38:16
SPEAKER_00: But not Brunson, not my guy.
38:19
SPEAKER_00: He's not like that.
38:21
SPEAKER_00: Instead, he draws the attention, kicks it to Landry, and Shaman hits two massive threes in the last minute, then literally wins you the game by sacrificing his body and taking a charge with 0.7 seconds left.
38:34
SPEAKER_00: That's not just clutch, that's trust.
38:37
SPEAKER_00: That's identity.
38:40
SPEAKER_00: You got towns giving you another double double.
38:42
SPEAKER_00: You got Josh Hart doing the 10-10 and nine other things that don't show up in the box score, including eating peanut MMs out of a fan's hand.
38:50
SPEAKER_00: Brunson being the adult in the room, and Shamit stepping into that random Nick Hero role that we've seen for decades.
38:59
SPEAKER_00: And finally, finally, you get your first road win after four straight losses away from home.
39:06
SPEAKER_00: It wasn't pretty, and they shot like high schoolers from the line late.
39:11
SPEAKER_00: But that's kind of the point here.
39:13
SPEAKER_00: You win ugly on the road.
39:15
SPEAKER_00: That's when you start looking like a real team instead of just like a league pass favorite.
39:21
SPEAKER_00: The question with the Knicks now is simple.
39:24
SPEAKER_00: When they're whole, who are they really?
39:28
SPEAKER_00: Because we've seen Knicks without Brunson, plucky, competitive, but you're living on effort.
39:35
SPEAKER_00: Knicks without OG, the defense looks a little lighter on its feet in a bad way.
39:40
SPEAKER_00: But the Knicks with both, that's when you start talking about do you really want to see them in a series?
39:46
SPEAKER_00: How far in the playoffs can they go?
39:49
SPEAKER_00: And in a week where the theme is who are you really?
39:51
SPEAKER_00: the Knicks answer this.
39:53
SPEAKER_00: They are absolutely built in Jalen Bruns' image.
39:57
SPEAKER_00: Tough, stubborn, a little undersized, and absolutely not scared of late game chaos.
40:05
SPEAKER_00: Around the rest of the league, the identity crisis is mostly happening in the trainer's room.
40:10
SPEAKER_00: Giannis goes down with a groin strain in Cleveland, and Doc Rivers basically comes out after the game, like, yeah, it didn't look great, which aka is coach speak for pray for the MRI.
40:22
SPEAKER_00: Uh Giannis has been on an insane tear.
40:27
SPEAKER_00: 30 plus a night, living in the paint, and now the body is finally barking back at him.
40:34
SPEAKER_00: And the question for the Bucs is who are you when Giannis isn't your chi code?
40:38
SPEAKER_00: Because when he's right, they get to cover up all the weird stuff.
40:42
SPEAKER_00: The awkward roster, the defensive holes, the stretches where the offense looks like it's five guys running five different apps.
40:51
SPEAKER_00: Without him, you've got an expensive roster that might just be fine.
40:56
SPEAKER_00: Not terrifying, not inevitable, just fine.
41:01
SPEAKER_00: And Miami's kind of the opposite.
41:02
SPEAKER_00: No BAM, no hero, and they still find ways to win because they know exactly who they are every single year.
41:12
SPEAKER_00: Ware steps in, Norman Powell gives you 19, Spoe just flips another undrafted guy over and hits on him.
41:20
SPEAKER_00: Heat culture.
41:22
SPEAKER_00: Heat culture is the most annoying phrase in sports sometimes.
41:27
SPEAKER_00: But it's also kind of real, and that's why it's annoying.
41:31
SPEAKER_00: They don't need to ask who they are.
41:33
SPEAKER_00: They know who they are.
41:34
SPEAKER_00: The Knicks in the heat game was a good contrast.
41:37
SPEAKER_00: Two banged up teams, but one of them has had the same identity for a decade, and the other one is still figuring out what Brunson, Kat, and Bridges era really looks like.
41:48
SPEAKER_00: And then, oh boy, and then you get to Dallas, where the identity crisis might be the loudest thing in the entire league.
41:56
SPEAKER_00: So let's let's talk about the Mavericks because this is a wild timeline.
42:02
SPEAKER_00: Nine months ago, Nico Harrison walks in and says, Alright, screw it, we're ripping the band aid off, ships off Luka to the Lakers in the most shocking trade that NBA has seen in years, which brings back Anthony Davis, recoupes some picks, and they try to reset the whole franchise on the fly.
42:19
SPEAKER_00: Then of course, the basketball gods reward, yeah, I'm sure it wasn't fixed.
42:23
SPEAKER_00: They reward you by letting you win the lottery, and you get to grab Cooper Flag, the next star generational player, can't miss, built like Dirk, basically looks like Luca, 18 years old.
42:34
SPEAKER_00: So on paper, you have A.D., Kyrie, Cooper Flag, and a couple decent role players.
42:40
SPEAKER_00: And you look around, you say, we didn't rebuild, we reloaded, we're good to go.
42:44
SPEAKER_00: Well, fast forward now.
42:46
SPEAKER_00: Nico's fired.
42:47
SPEAKER_00: AD has played five games.
42:50
SPEAKER_00: Kyrie hasn't even touched the floor this season.
42:52
SPEAKER_00: Cooper Flag missed the game with illness, and he's looked okay, not great.
42:57
SPEAKER_00: And this team is near bottom of the West with the second worst offense in the league.
43:03
SPEAKER_00: This is supposed to be the cool modern offensive franchise that used to build around Luka Hero Ball.
43:10
SPEAKER_00: And now they can't even crack average with AD and flag on paper.
43:14
SPEAKER_00: You got three non-shooters on the floor, you got no spacing, and you're asking an 18-year-old to be your adult before he can legally rent a car, before he can buy a beer.
43:26
SPEAKER_00: And the worst part, this isn't some clean we're rebuilding situation.
43:31
SPEAKER_00: They are capstrapped and pick poor.
43:34
SPEAKER_00: They're flirting with the second apron.
43:36
SPEAKER_00: They owe picks all over the league from the Luka 80 Kyrie era, and they're staring at a potential 80 Supermax extension where he's going to be making monopoly money in his mid-30s on a body that breaks down constantly.
43:50
SPEAKER_00: So when you talk about who are you really in Dallas right now, I don't even know if they know.
43:57
SPEAKER_00: I mean, are you a win now team built around an injury-prone mid-30s stars?
44:03
SPEAKER_00: Uh are you a rebuilding team centered on Cooper Flag's timeline?
44:07
SPEAKER_00: Or are you just straight up stuck in the middle?
44:10
SPEAKER_00: Too expensive to blow it up and too flawed to truly contend.
44:14
SPEAKER_00: That's the part that sucks for Flag.
44:16
SPEAKER_00: You went from this fairy tale, Luca gets moved, you're the new face, fresh regime, clean slate, to hey kid, welcome to the franchise.
44:26
SPEAKER_00: The guy who traded for you just got fired, your co-stars in street clothes, and the guy who's supposed to take pressure off you hasn't even played yet.
44:34
SPEAKER_00: Good luck, go save us.
44:36
SPEAKER_00: That's how you end up with these weird, haunted seasons where the kid doesn't even play that bad, but there's this dark cloud of was that Luca trade even worth it hanging over him?
44:47
SPEAKER_00: And then the fans are all mad about it, and then it just compiles more and more and more.
44:51
SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, the Knicks make one smart trade for Towns.
44:55
SPEAKER_00: They lean into Brunson, they bring in bridges, and you go, Oh, I see the lane, I see the identity, I see what they're trying to do here.
45:03
SPEAKER_00: Dallas, you're watching him, and it looks like, what are you trying to be?
45:07
SPEAKER_00: Because this looks like three timelines trying to fight each other.
45:11
SPEAKER_00: And that's the kind of story of the league right now.
45:14
SPEAKER_00: The Knicks are trying to level up from fun to real.
45:18
SPEAKER_00: The Bucs are trying to prove that they can survive if Giannis misses times, or God forbid, leaves.
45:23
SPEAKER_00: The Heat are just keep being the Heat no matter who's in the uniform.
45:27
SPEAKER_00: There's monsters out west with the Thunder and the Nuggets who just don't seem to lose ever.
45:32
SPEAKER_00: And then the Mavericks are staring into the mirror, like, man, what did we actually build here?
45:38
SPEAKER_00: Not to mention the Nets and the Pacers and the Wizards, I think combined have three wins.
45:45
SPEAKER_00: The league is all over the place with hot and cold and stability and chaos.
45:52
SPEAKER_00: So in a Who Are You Really episode, the NBA gave us a lot of answers this week and a couple really uncomfortable questions.
46:00
SPEAKER_00: But next up, we're gonna jump over to the diamond.
46:04
SPEAKER_00: Baseball is doing its own identity check with a hot stove heating up.
46:08
SPEAKER_00: We got some guys accepting qualifying offers that probably wouldn't have got that much money anyway.
46:15
SPEAKER_00: And maybe, just maybe, some of these owners are finally being forced to act like big boys.
46:21
SPEAKER_00: Baseball coming up next.
46:23
SPEAKER_00: Keep it right here.
46:51
SPEAKER_00: Because this Who Are You Really theme that we've been covering might actually hit hardest in MLB.
46:57
SPEAKER_00: Not with the players, but with owners and front offices showing you exactly what they are when the bill comes due.
47:05
SPEAKER_00: I didn't think I was gonna have a lot for this segment.
47:07
SPEAKER_00: And then after going over my notes here, there's a good amount to cover.
47:11
SPEAKER_00: So don't worry, I won't drown on forever and ever about baseball, even though it's very easy to.
47:19
SPEAKER_00: So let's just get into it, huh?
47:21
SPEAKER_00: Shall we?
47:23
SPEAKER_00: I'll start in Seattle because the first real domino of the offseason finally fell.
47:29
SPEAKER_00: Josh Naylor.
47:31
SPEAKER_00: He gets his five-year deal from the Mariners, and that one checks a bunch of boxes all at once for them.
47:36
SPEAKER_00: Seattle made it very clear at the deadline that this is our guy.
47:40
SPEAKER_00: They went and got him, hits$299 for them, runs wild on the bases, plays a solid first base.
47:48
SPEAKER_00: And the most important thing with baseball, he absolutely fit that team's energy right away.
47:53
SPEAKER_00: So they back it up.
47:54
SPEAKER_00: They back it up with years and real money.
47:56
SPEAKER_00: Lock him in with Julio, lock him in with Cal Riley, and that rotation.
48:01
SPEAKER_00: This shows that they're trying to stick around for a while, not just be one hit ALCS wonders.
48:08
SPEAKER_00: And from a Mets angle, this move matters.
48:10
SPEAKER_00: Naylor was one of the cleaner middle of the order lefty bad options on the market, and now he's off the board.
48:17
SPEAKER_00: So that's one less chair when the music stops for teams that needed a thumper.
48:22
SPEAKER_00: So if you're Steve Cohen and David Stearns and you're sitting there trying to figure out what to offer Pete Alonso, that's a little bit of leverage on both sides.
48:31
SPEAKER_00: Pete can say, hey, you know, who is uh exactly gonna replace 40 bombs in your lineup?
48:38
SPEAKER_00: Because Naylor was one of the few dudes who kind of sort of fit that lane, and now he's gone.
48:45
SPEAKER_00: But from the GM standpoint, from Stern's standpoint, he can turn around and say, Well, Pete, that's one less place that was gonna offer you serious money that you can go to now.
48:55
SPEAKER_00: So your options are dwindling down little by little.
48:59
SPEAKER_00: It's the same thing in the bullpen market with the Braves bringing back Rosia Iglesias.
49:03
SPEAKER_00: It's a small one-year,$16 million deal, but Atlanta looked around and said, we could get cute in the ninth inning, or we could just bring the dude back who's been nails for us.
49:14
SPEAKER_00: And he wants to be here.
49:16
SPEAKER_00: And here's the part that the Mets fans' ears should perk up at.
49:20
SPEAKER_00: We do our homework here at Rice on the Mics.
49:23
SPEAKER_00: You know, we keep an eye on things.
49:25
SPEAKER_00: We go into some stats behind the scenes.
49:28
SPEAKER_00: Since 2017, Iglesias is third in reliever war.
49:34
SPEAKER_00: And can you guess the two guys ahead of him?
49:37
SPEAKER_00: That's correct.
49:38
SPEAKER_00: Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader.
49:40
SPEAKER_00: So that's the tier that we're talking about.
49:44
SPEAKER_00: When Iglesius gets his number and he's off the market, that's one fewer serious closer out there.
49:50
SPEAKER_00: And the Mets are very publicly trying to keep Diaz.
49:53
SPEAKER_00: But every time one of these top end arms is taken off the table, the price and the urgency for your guy ticks up just a little bit more.
50:02
SPEAKER_00: Then you look at the qualifying offers.
50:04
SPEAKER_00: Trent Grisham, Glaber Torres, Brandon Woodruff, Shoda Imanaga.
50:09
SPEAKER_00: All took the QO at a little bit over$22 million for one year.
50:13
SPEAKER_00: Everybody else, Kyle Schwarber, Ranger Suarez, Kyle Tucker, Framer Valdez, Bo Bachet, Dylan Sees, Michael King, Edwin Diaz, Zach Gallon.
50:25
SPEAKER_00: They're all saying, no thanks, I'll test the market.
50:28
SPEAKER_00: Those are some pretty big names in the sport that could be wearing a different uniform come next season.
50:34
SPEAKER_00: So that's two things at once.
50:36
SPEAKER_00: One, the mid-tier guys are reading the room.
50:39
SPEAKER_00: They're saying, I'll take the one-year bag, especially with a CBA fight looming.
50:45
SPEAKER_00: And then two, the actual stars are betting on themselves and on the fact that there's still enough real money out there from a handful of teams that want to compete every single year.
50:55
SPEAKER_00: And you know who those teams usually are.
50:58
SPEAKER_00: And on that note, let's zoom into the New York baseball teams.
51:02
SPEAKER_00: Because both locals are having major identity crises in different directions.
51:09
SPEAKER_00: So the Yankees quietly bring back Ryan Yarbrough on a one-year,$2.5 million deal.
51:14
SPEAKER_00: That's not a headline.
51:16
SPEAKER_00: That's nothing.
51:17
SPEAKER_00: But it's really not.
51:18
SPEAKER_00: Look at the context.
51:20
SPEAKER_00: Going into next season, no Garrett Cole to start the year, no Carlos Radon for at least a few weeks.
51:25
SPEAKER_00: Clark Schmidt's out to at least the second half.
51:27
SPEAKER_00: Your rotation on paper is Max Fried, Cam Schlittler in his full year now, Luis Hill, Will Warren, and maybe Yarbrough as the Swiss Army knife opener.
51:41
SPEAKER_00: I saw a tweet going around that said Yankees money is in trouble.
51:44
SPEAKER_00: What a mess.
51:46
SPEAKER_00: And it was, yeah, it's it's messy as all hell.
51:51
SPEAKER_00: With Trent Christian accepting the qualifying offer for$22 million, you still got DJ LeMayu on the books for$15 million, Ryan McMahon, who you just traded for at the deadline making$16 million.
52:02
SPEAKER_00: And oh yeah, Giancarlo for another$19 million, adding up to a grand total of$72 million.
52:09
SPEAKER_00: This is why they make a move like this.
52:12
SPEAKER_00: This is the kind of move you make when you're trying to hold the dam together cheap while you figure out whether you actually want to throw another giant contract at a starter or Cody Bellinger or Kyle Tucker or anybody to hit behind Judge.
52:25
SPEAKER_00: I mean, are you guys still the evil empire that just goes out and buys a frontline arm or a big bat?
52:31
SPEAKER_00: Or are you kind of in that uncomfortable in-between where you're paying huge money to injured guys and then patching the rest with value plays and hoping that the logo still sells?
52:44
SPEAKER_00: Maybe that was a little mean, but it doesn't make it not true.
52:47
SPEAKER_00: It's not great.
52:49
SPEAKER_00: Now flip it over to Queens, and it's the kind of the opposite because the Mets just straight up ate$17 million to DFA Frankie Mantas.
52:58
SPEAKER_00: He's going to miss all of next year with Tommy John.
53:01
SPEAKER_00: That's a co-in tax.
53:03
SPEAKER_00: Most owners don't swallow that much money on a dead arm without at least trying to squeeze out like some rehab innings.
53:10
SPEAKER_00: The Mets basically just said we'd rather have the roster spot.
53:13
SPEAKER_00: Go on, get out of here.
53:14
SPEAKER_00: Goodbye.
53:15
SPEAKER_00: But they have a major core issue.
53:19
SPEAKER_00: Who's the captain?
53:20
SPEAKER_00: Who's sticking around?
53:22
SPEAKER_00: How do we get better while keeping the guys that got us here?
53:27
SPEAKER_00: Who is the voice in the locker room?
53:31
SPEAKER_00: Is Mendoza a good manager?
53:34
SPEAKER_00: Will Keith stay for another year?
53:36
SPEAKER_00: No, I'm just kidding.
53:37
SPEAKER_00: But there's a lot of internal questions to be answered this offseason.
53:41
SPEAKER_00: They did finally fill out the big league coaching staffs, coaching positions, though.
53:47
SPEAKER_00: Justin Willard comes in from Boston as the pitching coach.
53:49
SPEAKER_00: That's great.
53:50
SPEAKER_00: Cool with that.
53:51
SPEAKER_00: Probably worked with uh Crochet and probably Sale and Bellow, so fine with me.
53:57
SPEAKER_00: Got Troy Stittiker from Houston as the hitting coach, and Jeff Albert overseeing hitting as a whole.
54:02
SPEAKER_00: I mean Houston and hitting.
54:04
SPEAKER_00: I guess I'll take that.
54:05
SPEAKER_00: Whatever.
54:06
SPEAKER_00: That's a very we're gonna be pitching lab slash hitting lab organization now.
54:10
SPEAKER_00: Set of hires.
54:11
SPEAKER_00: Not so much vibes and laughing and this and the other.
54:15
SPEAKER_00: More science.
54:16
SPEAKER_00: And you can tell that they're trying to be the team that develops arms, not just buys them.
54:22
SPEAKER_00: But they might be able to do both because the Scoobyl smoke is very, very real.
54:29
SPEAKER_00: At least around here it is.
54:31
SPEAKER_00: Tariq Scoobyl is the swing piece of this entire offseason if the Tigers actually put him in play.
54:37
SPEAKER_00: Back-to-back Cy Young's 28 years old, top of the rotation lefty, under control through 2026, and you got Boris in his ear and a realistic shot at beating Yamamoto's 325 million, maybe even pushing towards the first$400 million pitching deal.
54:54
SPEAKER_00: And why not the Mets?
54:55
SPEAKER_00: I mean, they already gave$750 to Soto, right?
54:58
SPEAKER_00: Let's just dump money all over the place.
55:00
SPEAKER_00: But here is where the who are you really thing gets loud, the theme of the episode.
55:05
SPEAKER_00: If you're Detroit, do you trade him now for a King's ransom, knowing you'll probably never get this level of ace again for a while?
55:15
SPEAKER_00: Or do you run 2016 with him and if you're not in it by July, cash out?
55:21
SPEAKER_00: Or do you just hang on to him no matter what, keep trying to extend him and risk losing him for a comp pick in the 30s?
55:28
SPEAKER_00: If you choose door one or door two, you're basically stamping small market mindset on your forehead.
55:35
SPEAKER_00: Even if your payroll technically could be higher, you're telling your fans when a guy gets truly elite and truly expensive, he's probably not going to finish his prime in our uniform.
55:45
SPEAKER_00: And that is exactly how you end up having this kind of same conversation in a couple years about Paul Schienes.
55:51
SPEAKER_00: Different name, same movie.
55:54
SPEAKER_00: Now, I say all this from my little Mets Ivory Tower.
55:58
SPEAKER_00: My owner is currently worth$16 billion with a B dollars.
56:03
SPEAKER_00: And the Mets are his passion project.
56:06
SPEAKER_00: It's a lot easier for me to sit back and say, yeah, just pay the man, give him a blank check when Steve Cullen can literally lose$40 million on the stock market and on a reliever and then go buy art the next day, too.
56:19
SPEAKER_00: But that's exactly why the Scooba thing is such a test.
56:23
SPEAKER_00: If the Mets are really in on them, it's not just about the prospects.
56:26
SPEAKER_00: And yes, it is going to cost a boatload of real names, real pain, the kind of prospects that Mets Twitter is going to be melting down over, or we gave up too much, or whatever.
56:38
SPEAKER_00: But you only do that if and only if you already have a pretty good idea you can sign him long term.
56:45
SPEAKER_00: You don't gut the farm for one and a half years of school and then wave as he hits free agency with Boris trying to set a new record.
56:54
SPEAKER_00: That's where Cohn and Cerns have to answer.
56:57
SPEAKER_00: Are you really going to use the financial superpower thing to separate yourself?
57:03
SPEAKER_00: Or are you just going to act like every other smart team and hedge it to death?
57:08
SPEAKER_00: And while all this is happening, MLB just quietly backed up the revenue truck.
57:13
SPEAKER_00: ESPN, NBC, and Netflix sign a new three-year rights package, roughly$800 million a year combined.
57:23
SPEAKER_00: ESPN keeps paying$550 and they get MLB TV in the and it's in app, plus some market streaming, whatever, some bullshit.
57:33
SPEAKER_00: NBC gets Sunday night baseball, the wildcard round, plus Sunday afternoons on Peacock, and Netflix gets the home run derby, an early season showcase game, and like a field of dreams type special event every year.
57:48
SPEAKER_00: That is a lot of guaranteed money flowing into the league.
57:52
SPEAKER_00: And with revenue sharing, even the so-called poor teams are going to be seeing bigger checks.
57:57
SPEAKER_00: So when owners come out this winter crying poverty, remember that.
58:02
SPEAKER_00: When they tell you that they can't possibly take on one more big contract because uncertainty with the CBA and this, that, and the other, remember that.
58:09
SPEAKER_00: $800 million for the next three years just got pumped into the league.
58:14
SPEAKER_00: As far as foreign players getting posted, you're going to have to bear with me with these names for now.
58:21
SPEAKER_00: Japanese ready Tatsuya Imaya posted.
58:30
SPEAKER_00: It's pretty damn good.
58:33
SPEAKER_00: Munataka Murakami.
58:34
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I said that pretty well.
58:36
SPEAKER_00: He's a position player coming over.
58:38
SPEAKER_00: You got Scooba Discourse.
58:40
SPEAKER_00: You got guys like Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber hitting the market without long-term deals for their original teams.
58:48
SPEAKER_00: And the question is just hanging out there.
58:51
SPEAKER_00: With all this extra TV and streaming money, who is actually going to act like a big club and who's going to hide behind the small market costume?
59:00
SPEAKER_00: Yankee fans are sitting there wondering if their team is still that bully on the block, or if you're going to watch another year of hopeful rotations and weak bats while Judge gets intentionally walked 40 times this season.
59:11
SPEAKER_00: And Met fans are wondering if Cohen is going to finally fire the big trade bullet on someone like Scoobyl and still double down with long-term Alonzo and Diaz deals.
59:22
SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, Tiger fans are just staring at one of their true aces and a great player on their team and wondering if they're ever going to be allowed to just dream past his arbitration years.
59:31
SPEAKER_00: God, that'd be miserable.
59:34
SPEAKER_00: That's the kind of heart of this whole episode, right?
59:37
SPEAKER_00: The who are you really?
59:39
SPEAKER_00: It isn't just for quarterbacks and coaches and NBA GMs.
59:44
SPEAKER_00: Baseball is about to show us too, owner by owner, with every deal they make or don't make the next couple months.
59:51
SPEAKER_00: So once the next big shoe drops, whether it's Scooba Talk or some surprise trade or somebody blinking first on a huge content.
1:00:00
SPEAKER_00: Contracting extension this winter.
1:00:02
SPEAKER_00: Baseball is basically one big identity jacket.
1:00:05
SPEAKER_00: Owners, front offices, stars hitting the market.
1:00:09
SPEAKER_00: Everybody's about to show you who they really are when the bill hits the table.
1:00:13
SPEAKER_00: And honestly, that kind of loops right back to me in this show, too.
1:00:18
SPEAKER_00: Episode 40.
1:00:19
SPEAKER_00: Sitting here talking sports with you every week.
1:00:22
SPEAKER_00: Trying to keep it honest, trying to keep it fun.
1:00:24
SPEAKER_00: Trying to build something that actually feels like it belongs to us, not just the box score.
1:00:30
SPEAKER_00: So I'll put a bow on the baseball for now.
1:00:32
SPEAKER_00: I'll take a breath.
1:00:33
SPEAKER_00: I'll calm down.
1:00:33
SPEAKER_00: I told you I'd keep it short.
1:00:35
SPEAKER_00: I didn't.
1:00:36
SPEAKER_00: On the other side, I'll get you out of here with some quick closing thoughts, plug the socials, and we'll wrap up episode 40 the right way.
1:00:43
SPEAKER_00: Thanks for listening.
1:00:58
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think that's a wrap on this one.
1:01:01
SPEAKER_00: Episode 40 in the books.
1:01:03
SPEAKER_00: That's crazy to say out loud.
1:01:06
SPEAKER_00: Forty episodes of me sitting here talking to a mic about the teams that make us miserable, and somehow we keep coming back for more.
1:01:15
SPEAKER_00: The theme this week of Who Are We Really is a check for everybody.
1:01:19
SPEAKER_00: Jets and Giants trying to convince us that they're building something while their records say otherwise.
1:01:24
SPEAKER_00: Chiefs are on the ropes, Colts are on the come-up.
1:01:27
SPEAKER_00: Eagles and Cowboys are trying to decide if they're contenders or just really loud pretenders.
1:01:33
SPEAKER_00: The Knicks holding it together with duct tape and Brunson's ankle.
1:01:37
SPEAKER_00: The Mavs are running a science experiment on how fast you can burn through a reset.
1:01:44
SPEAKER_00: And then baseball's over here asking owners, are you really broke or are you just cheap?
1:01:49
SPEAKER_00: That's kind of where I'm at with the show, too.
1:01:52
SPEAKER_00: Episode 40 feels like a good moment to look in the mirror and go, What is rice on the mics really?
1:01:59
SPEAKER_00: And the answer for me is uh still the same.
1:02:02
SPEAKER_00: Honest, a little reckless, statinerdy when it needs to be, but always like you're just posted up at the bar arguing with your good friends.
1:02:11
SPEAKER_00: If I can keep that vibe, I'm square.
1:02:15
SPEAKER_00: As always, if you rocked with me this episode, do me a favor, share it with one friend, drop a rating, toss a review, all that good stuff.
1:02:23
SPEAKER_00: Hit me on the socials at Rice on the Radio.
1:02:27
SPEAKER_00: Jump in the DM, send your week 12 takes, your fantasy panic, your own who are you really?
1:02:34
SPEAKER_00: Teams.
1:02:35
SPEAKER_00: Check the Wednesday mic polls too.
1:02:37
SPEAKER_00: Get your votes in.
1:02:39
SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
1:02:40
SPEAKER_00: Thank you for listening, for riding with me to 40.
1:02:44
SPEAKER_00: Spread good energy in this world.
1:02:46
SPEAKER_00: Make sure you tell someone you love them.
1:02:48
SPEAKER_00: I am Ian Rice, and I'll catch you next week.