Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process
Transcript
- 0:04Speaker 1: Fall systems gone clear the lift on what's going on?
- 0:36Speaker 1: Everybody Happy Thursday. If you're watching Friday Friday night, I
- 0:40Speaker 1: know you will not be watching Saturday afternoon though, because
- 0:43Speaker 1: these are nine a and eastern fight time. We are
- 0:47Speaker 1: in Baku, iSER Baijan. Thirteen fights is on tap nine
- 0:52Speaker 1: am Eastern start time on Saturday at a six am
- 0:55Speaker 1: over here mountain time. I love me some early violence.
- 0:58Speaker 1: I don't know necessarily, I'll be up right away from
- 1:01Speaker 1: the start, maybe an hour in, maybe right away. We
- 1:03Speaker 1: have some good fights for sure. Though ten of the
- 1:05Speaker 1: thirteen are expected to finish. Nine of the thirteen fights
- 1:09Speaker 1: have favorites less than minus three hundred, So I think
- 1:12Speaker 1: it's gonna be a great DFS card. I think it's
- 1:14Speaker 1: gonna be a good real life card. Should see some violence.
- 1:17Speaker 1: I'm excited to talk through with you, big Marley. How
- 1:19Speaker 1: we doing this week? How's vacation? And yeah? Thoughts on
- 1:22Speaker 1: this card? Uh? Oh, you got me?
- 1:28Speaker 2: I am good man.
- 1:29Speaker 3: Hopefully my mic doesn't cut out. My computer keeps saying
- 1:32Speaker 3: to scan something. But yeah, I mean, vacation was good.
- 1:37Speaker 3: I didn't have the greatest White House card, but the
- 1:40Speaker 3: vacation was still good. Love to be by the beach anytime.
- 1:43Speaker 3: And I think this is a pretty tricky car to
- 1:45Speaker 3: come back to. There's some names people aren't gonna know.
- 1:48Speaker 3: As long as we keep all thirteen fights, I think
- 1:51Speaker 3: it's pretty solid.
- 1:52Speaker 2: We got a good mid range, a main event that
- 1:55Speaker 2: you don't have to.
- 1:56Speaker 3: Be all in on that, but you probably want to
- 1:58Speaker 3: focus on with it being in the mid range, and
- 2:00Speaker 3: I think it's a good one to come back to.
- 2:02Speaker 1: Totally agree. I'm excited for this card for sure. Yeah,
- 2:04Speaker 1: a couple of names though, people making the UFC debut.
- 2:08Speaker 1: Obviously it's across the country, so there's some American fighters
- 2:12Speaker 1: on the car, but a lot of non American fighters
- 2:14Speaker 1: on the card. Again, some debuts in there. We'll go
- 2:17Speaker 1: bottom to top like always and break it down. We
- 2:20Speaker 1: got ysn in there like always. We appreciate you hanging out.
- 2:23Speaker 1: All we ask is the like punts and subscribe button
- 2:25Speaker 1: helps us out a ton rain in here as well.
- 2:28Speaker 1: I'm not sure I've ever seen you so that. It's awesome.
- 2:30Speaker 1: Love to see some new faces. Hope you're having a
- 2:32Speaker 1: great night again. Make sure to get your lineups in
- 2:35Speaker 1: Friday night or set an alarm for Saturday morning with
- 2:38Speaker 1: the nine am Eastern start time. We got no time
- 2:41Speaker 1: to waste, so we're going bottom to the top thirteen fights
- 2:43Speaker 1: to talk about. This fight was announced about a week
- 2:46Speaker 1: ago to ear abduly Eve. I definitely butcher names. If
- 2:52Speaker 1: you guys are new here, it's probably not many of you.
- 2:55Speaker 1: I do not always get the names right. People that
- 2:57Speaker 1: have been here for a while you know that. But
- 2:58Speaker 1: you know the fights. I'm talking bottom the top tier.
- 3:01Speaker 1: Abdualy Eve plus one hundred taking on Jefferson Nonsimento minus
- 3:05Speaker 1: one twenty. The only prop out right now is under
- 3:08Speaker 1: two and a half open plus one thirty now plus
- 3:11Speaker 1: one fifteen, so this fight will be slightly favored to
- 3:14Speaker 1: go the distance, which is only three on this card,
- 3:17Speaker 1: right in the mid tier. And as you can see
- 3:20Speaker 1: on Tuesday, that's when I put all these win odds
- 3:22Speaker 1: up minus one twenty was to hear the line flipped
- 3:25Speaker 1: and now Nasimento's minus one twenty. Now Smento did actually
- 3:29Speaker 1: open up minus two hundred, though, and an or four
- 3:33Speaker 1: minutes later open up minus two hundred. Four minutes later
- 3:35Speaker 1: was plus one thirteen. He stayed around there until yesterday.
- 3:40Speaker 1: He took some money, so yeah, this line is flipped,
- 3:43Speaker 1: good amount of line movement to start. I see you
- 3:45Speaker 1: have it as a three star again, I'm expecting it
- 3:47Speaker 1: to be slightly favored to go the distance. How do
- 3:49Speaker 1: you see this one going?
- 3:52Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this one's an okay one to target
- 3:55Speaker 3: because with the line movement, I would imagine that Nasimento
- 3:59Speaker 3: is gonna get more or the ownership, and my pick
- 4:02Speaker 3: is ta Here.
- 4:04Speaker 2: I don't really love either guy.
- 4:05Speaker 3: I think ta Here is getting the call up because
- 4:07Speaker 3: he's from Baku, so he's got the hometown advantage going
- 4:11Speaker 3: for him. I think he is the bigger, stronger guy
- 4:13Speaker 3: as well, but not Simento is undefeated. He looks like
- 4:16Speaker 3: he's gonna have the striking advantage. I think he's gonna
- 4:19Speaker 3: be just a better overall striker. He's got good hooks.
- 4:21Speaker 3: I think he's gonna be the higher volume striker as well,
- 4:24Speaker 3: but without a knockout. I don't really see Nacimento having
- 4:28Speaker 3: a high ceiling in a decision. In a striking base decision,
- 4:31Speaker 3: win to Hear would be the one who I think
- 4:34Speaker 3: has more one shot power, but he's a lower volume
- 4:38Speaker 3: striker and he's more gonna want to close the distance.
- 4:41Speaker 3: Land some takedowns, and I think he would do his
- 4:43Speaker 3: best work in top position. I think he could grind
- 4:46Speaker 3: out minutes in top control, being the bigger, stronger guy,
- 4:49Speaker 3: and I also think he could land some heavy grounded
- 4:50Speaker 3: pound possibly finish the fight on the mat. So to
- 4:54Speaker 3: Here's gonna be my preferred play because I think he's
- 4:57Speaker 3: gonna be the lower owned one of the two, and
- 4:59Speaker 3: I also love we have fights like two fights that
- 5:01Speaker 3: are eighty three hundred and seventy nine hundred, so I
- 5:05Speaker 3: like to target those even more. I think both of
- 5:07Speaker 3: those fights are good to target this week as well,
- 5:09Speaker 3: but not some mento. I just think you being one
- 5:12Speaker 3: of the more popular underdogs, I'm okay getting some exposure
- 5:15Speaker 3: to him, but I think I want the field to
- 5:17Speaker 3: be higher than me, and I'll get an overweight on
- 5:19Speaker 3: to Here, hoping that he can get something, maybe a
- 5:21Speaker 3: ground and pound finish.
- 5:23Speaker 1: Both eighty three hundred and seventy nine hundred fights right
- 5:25Speaker 1: now have the four hundred dollars cheaper fighter as the favorite,
- 5:29Speaker 1: which is interesting that a Boose and Michael Oljchick fight
- 5:33Speaker 1: will get a lot more ownership than this one. The
- 5:35Speaker 1: main events eighty two to a k will get a
- 5:38Speaker 1: lot of ownership. So yeah, this fight has to be
- 5:40Speaker 1: low owned and Nasimento being the cheaper fighter now the
- 5:43Speaker 1: favorite should have him even higher on. So it makes
- 5:46Speaker 1: sense with your pick to hear he is the wrestler
- 5:48Speaker 1: in this fight too. I think he does have more
- 5:50Speaker 1: upside in wins, but I will have some nacimento for
- 5:54Speaker 1: the fact of this fight was just announced last week.
- 5:56Speaker 1: Here's a big guy. I think if he does wrestle early,
- 5:59Speaker 1: it doesn't have to success. He could gas himself out
- 6:01Speaker 1: and not Samento undefeated at thirteen to zero, and we
- 6:05Speaker 1: when we know that fighters gas and they have nothing
- 6:08Speaker 1: left in the tank. Points come come in bunches, and
- 6:11Speaker 1: I do think Jefferson Moncemento has a chance to do
- 6:13Speaker 1: that if he can't stuff takedowns early. This is a
- 6:16Speaker 1: fight I don't have too strong of a lean on. Again,
- 6:19Speaker 1: both guys making the UFC debut the first fight of
- 6:21Speaker 1: the night. I would ideally want to be around the
- 6:23Speaker 1: field on both. I don't want my night to be
- 6:25Speaker 1: over at six fifteen am because I went all in
- 6:28Speaker 1: to here, I faded this or I did that. Give
- 6:31Speaker 1: me pretty close to the field on both This fight
- 6:33Speaker 1: won't change my night or dictate my night one bit,
- 6:37Speaker 1: so yeah, I'll gun into my head. I'm probably underweight
- 6:40Speaker 1: and think this fight boss, if one of the three fights,
- 6:42Speaker 1: expect to go the distance, but I will have some
- 6:44Speaker 1: of both sides right in the mid tier since I
- 6:46Speaker 1: think there's a lot of volatility in this one with
- 6:48Speaker 1: it just announced last week. Who knows how the gas
- 6:51Speaker 1: tank will be on both guys. All right, we'll keep
- 6:54Speaker 1: it rolling. Another fight expected to go the distances to
- 6:57Speaker 1: the second of third on the card. Genetsimo minus one
- 7:00Speaker 1: sixty taken on Backsen Almican plus one forty plus one
- 7:04Speaker 1: forty five for this fight to go the or excuse me,
- 7:07Speaker 1: plus one forty five for this fight to finish, minus
- 7:09Speaker 1: won seventy five for this fight to go the distance.
- 7:11Speaker 1: Almacan plus three hundred inside the distance, Masamoto plus three fifteen.
- 7:16Speaker 1: I see you have it as a three star here.
- 7:18Speaker 1: So this is another mid tier fight expected to go
- 7:20Speaker 1: the distance. But I prefer this fight to the last
- 7:22Speaker 1: fight if choosing the reason for that you can see
- 7:25Speaker 1: on the stone. Mas Tomoto over five significant strikes per minute,
- 7:28Speaker 1: three takedowns per fifteen minutes, even in decisions, so his
- 7:33Speaker 1: last two losses. Let me make sure I get this right. Actually, yeah,
- 7:37Speaker 1: it was his last two losses. Last fight against Freed
- 7:42Speaker 1: bascheratt eighty four DraftKings points in a loss, landed seven
- 7:45Speaker 1: takedowns and then the fight prior or two fights prior
- 7:49Speaker 1: to that, Rob font also landed seven takedowns in that fight.
- 7:52Speaker 1: Loss is split decision and scored eighty DK points if
- 7:55Speaker 1: you just give them the win in thoughse that's one
- 7:57Speaker 1: oh four and U me one ten and one fourteen
- 8:01Speaker 1: definitely would be enough at eighty four hundred to be optimal.
- 8:04Speaker 1: So he does a lot, even though if he doesn't finish,
- 8:07Speaker 1: he can get there in a lot of ways. Becksot,
- 8:09Speaker 1: I have some interest in for the fact of good
- 8:11Speaker 1: money line value for the price, and he has big
- 8:14Speaker 1: boy power, so anytime I think he is live for
- 8:17Speaker 1: a knockout as the dog a better inside the disness
- 8:19Speaker 1: prop than Gene. My picks. Gene think he has more
- 8:22Speaker 1: tools to win. But yeah, I'm gonna play both sides
- 8:25Speaker 1: of this fight, and I do prefer to the first
- 8:26Speaker 1: fight if choosing, I'm gonna start with that question for you, though,
- 8:30Speaker 1: since you have it the exact same three star three
- 8:32Speaker 1: star with the favorite getting four stars. So compare the
- 8:35Speaker 1: fight first and then break it down.
- 8:38Speaker 2: Well, that's tough.
- 8:39Speaker 3: I think they're real similar because I am picking the
- 8:42Speaker 3: favorite again in this one, and I don't have as
- 8:44Speaker 3: much interest in the underdog. I think I'd probably be
- 8:49Speaker 3: more interested in Becksott than I would be in Nasamentto
- 8:52Speaker 3: because I think he would probably be a little bit
- 8:54Speaker 3: lower on and I think he has more round one potential.
- 8:59Speaker 3: He does have knockout power, could only take one shot,
- 9:01Speaker 3: and Gene can be hit for sure, especially early. So
- 9:05Speaker 3: I think Besa has decent amount of round one equity,
- 9:09Speaker 3: but that's like the only way he scores one hundred
- 9:12Speaker 3: plus points.
- 9:13Speaker 2: He's not a high volume striker.
- 9:14Speaker 3: I don't think he's gonna be mixing in many, if
- 9:16Speaker 3: any takedowns at all. So I like Matsumoto to be
- 9:20Speaker 3: the better, the cleaner striker, the higher volume striker, the
- 9:24Speaker 3: better wrestler on this one, and he is the one
- 9:26Speaker 3: who can hit one hundred points in the decision win.
- 9:29Speaker 3: So I don't know, I'm gonna I'm gonna like Gene in.
- 9:32Speaker 3: I'm gonna like to hear maybe maybe I'll have more
- 9:36Speaker 3: to hear because I can afford just more lignups with him,
- 9:38Speaker 3: But I don't know. I'm gonna be pretty similar on
- 9:40Speaker 3: both of it, where I'll be overweight the favorite underweight
- 9:44Speaker 3: to the underdog and I'll have to I mean, for me.
- 9:47Speaker 2: It's a tough card to find underdogs.
- 9:49Speaker 3: I like, there's a few we'll get to for sure,
- 9:52Speaker 3: but I haven't built too many lineups yet. But I've
- 9:54Speaker 3: definitely struggled on picking underdogs that can fit with the
- 9:57Speaker 3: favorites I like as well. So I'm gonna be clicking
- 9:59Speaker 3: on some names I don't like very much as well.
- 10:02Speaker 3: I just don't think it's gonna be becksat.
- 10:03Speaker 2: And not cementto.
- 10:05Speaker 1: Yeah, that's fair. They definitely will be in my like
- 10:08Speaker 1: if a lot of the lower tier dogs lose, you
- 10:10Speaker 1: can see a lineup with the main event Nasamento almacn
- 10:15Speaker 1: Michelle ol Jchech or a booze like. The mid tier
- 10:18Speaker 1: is strong where you can make that work Hasano Nolan
- 10:21Speaker 1: minus two fifteen to finish right there, minus one forty
- 10:24Speaker 1: to finish eighty five seventy five hundred. So if you
- 10:27Speaker 1: don't like many cheap dogs, you could actually pound the
- 10:30Speaker 1: mid tier and right around the mid tier because there's
- 10:32Speaker 1: a lot of closely line fights there. I prefer not
- 10:35Speaker 1: Semento to Almaicon and g Masimota to to hear personally,
- 10:40Speaker 1: but yeah, I think I view him as very similar
- 10:42Speaker 1: fights as well. Again, we're kicking it off with two
- 10:44Speaker 1: of the two of the three fights expect to go
- 10:47Speaker 1: the distance. All the other ones are expected to finish
- 10:49Speaker 1: on the card, so naturally not the best fights to target,
- 10:52Speaker 1: But I do think there's pass on both sides, Like
- 10:55Speaker 1: we've been talking about Almaconn with the power Matsamoto, I mean,
- 10:59Speaker 1: eighty and eighty five four and a loss is pretty impressive.
- 11:02Speaker 1: All right, Let's go to the second highest price in
- 11:04Speaker 1: the second biggest favorite on the card, Daneil don Chenko
- 11:08Speaker 1: minus four sixty taken on Theodore Bregoran plus three to sixty,
- 11:13Speaker 1: minus three fifty for this fight to finish don Chenko
- 11:16Speaker 1: minus two forty inside the distance Bregoran plus five to
- 11:19Speaker 1: fifty don Chenko round one plus one sixty five. So
- 11:23Speaker 1: looking at don Chenko, he opened minus twelve hundred four
- 11:27Speaker 1: minutes later was already minus four seventy six, got up
- 11:30Speaker 1: to minus five twenty five and is now minus four sixty.
- 11:33Speaker 1: As you can see on Tuesday, Daniel is minus five
- 11:36Speaker 1: twenty five. Theodore is taking some money. Now it's minus
- 11:40Speaker 1: four sixty plus three sixty. The over has also taken
- 11:43Speaker 1: some money. The fight was minus four hundred to finish
- 11:45Speaker 1: on Tuesday, now plus or excuse me, now minus three
- 11:48Speaker 1: to fifty. I'll let you write this one down first.
- 11:51Speaker 1: I see five stars in one star, so I assume
- 11:53Speaker 1: you're going on the Theodore side. Excuse me? Four stars, one, two, three, Yeah, no,
- 11:58Speaker 1: five and one.
- 12:00Speaker 3: I'm changing it right now of four and two because
- 12:03Speaker 3: I am a little bit interested in Theodore as a
- 12:06Speaker 3: cheap underdog who could help me get up to like
- 12:09Speaker 3: the Yaki yayabs. But I mean I like don Chenko
- 12:12Speaker 3: to win the fight. Theodore's taking this fight on short notice.
- 12:16Speaker 3: Both guys are strikers, and I think that Theodore is
- 12:19Speaker 3: gonna be a little bit lighter.
- 12:20Speaker 2: On his feet. He should stay at range and kind
- 12:22Speaker 2: of pick his points.
- 12:23Speaker 3: But I don't see him knocking out Don Cheko to
- 12:27Speaker 3: have a high ceiling, and I really don't see him
- 12:29Speaker 3: wrestling much or are striking at a high pace. I
- 12:31Speaker 3: don't think he's gonna score well even if he wins.
- 12:34Speaker 3: But he's like an underdog who is sixty eight hundred,
- 12:37Speaker 3: who I think could score thirty in a loss, and
- 12:41Speaker 3: maybe he could get a shitty decision and get the win.
- 12:46Speaker 3: But don Chenko primarily a striker too. I just think
- 12:49Speaker 3: he's gonna have a lot more behind his strikes. I
- 12:52Speaker 3: think he's gonna be the one marching forward. He's kind
- 12:54Speaker 3: of bullying Theodore on the feet, and I think those
- 12:57Speaker 3: shots will end up adding up the longer the fight goes,
- 13:00Speaker 3: and I think he'll put them away late, especially taking
- 13:02Speaker 3: this fight on short notice to make his UFC debut.
- 13:05Speaker 3: I think don Chenk goes too good, too much, too
- 13:08Speaker 3: soon for him. But I think that the line. When
- 13:11Speaker 3: I first saw the line, I thought it was a
- 13:12Speaker 3: little bit wider than I figured it would be. So
- 13:15Speaker 3: that's kind of what makes me think Theodore is a
- 13:17Speaker 3: little bit in play for sixty eight hundred dollars, whether
- 13:20Speaker 3: both striker or striker. He kind of gets the stylistic
- 13:23Speaker 3: match that he wants, just a way tougher fight than
- 13:26Speaker 3: he's ever had before.
- 13:27Speaker 2: But don Chenk goes the pick.
- 13:29Speaker 3: I would rather find another one hundred dollars to get
- 13:31Speaker 3: up to Yakyeyev. But I do think don Chenko could
- 13:34Speaker 3: score one hundred plus as well.
- 13:36Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm definitely team Yakia. I have over don Chenko
- 13:39Speaker 1: and that is going to be a decision. And it's
- 13:42Speaker 1: kind of hard to pay all the way up. I
- 13:43Speaker 1: mean it's it is, but it isn't. There's enough live
- 13:45Speaker 1: dogs on this card, the mid tiers strong, but paying
- 13:48Speaker 1: ninety five or ninety four hundred is a lot. I
- 13:50Speaker 1: don't love the idea of double spending, and I'm just
- 13:53Speaker 1: gonna find myself. Yakiyev will be higher OneD if you
- 13:55Speaker 1: leave thee hundred. It is a way to get different.
- 13:58Speaker 1: But man like, there's a lot line movement on the
- 14:01Speaker 1: excuse me Berger inside, and Yakaya has legit first minute
- 14:06Speaker 1: upside in this one. Yak guy, If I believes minus
- 14:08Speaker 1: one thirty five in round one, don Chenko's plus one
- 14:11Speaker 1: sixty five, that's a big difference, plus one sixty five.
- 14:15Speaker 1: Let me just make sure, yeah, plus one sixty five.
- 14:17Speaker 1: Still like, if he gets a round two knockout, the
- 14:19Speaker 1: odds that him being optimal are below fifty percent. Third
- 14:23Speaker 1: round knockout, you're almost need three knockdowns or something like that. Again,
- 14:27Speaker 1: that's a lot of line movement coming in on the
- 14:29Speaker 1: Burger in side since open at minus twelve hundred, He's
- 14:32Speaker 1: my preferred play at sixty eight hundred. If he wins,
- 14:35Speaker 1: I'll take any win. His win equity twenty one percent
- 14:38Speaker 1: at plus three sixty, he's gonna be half that ownership.
- 14:42Speaker 1: And I don't love too many dogs like way way
- 14:44Speaker 1: down there, So thirty and a loss you'll take Bregeran's
- 14:48Speaker 1: thirty and a loss over don Chenko's win almost any day,
- 14:51Speaker 1: unless the fight's just an absolute war with crazy knockdowns
- 14:54Speaker 1: on both sides. But sixty eight hundred opens up a lot,
- 14:57Speaker 1: especially if favorites or majority of favorites win on this card,
- 15:01Speaker 1: and don Chenko, even if he scores one oh five,
- 15:03Speaker 1: that might not be enough. I think Yakyev scores more
- 15:06Speaker 1: than that, So I'm not saying ex don Chenko, But
- 15:08Speaker 1: if I was playing like eight teams or less, I
- 15:11Speaker 1: don't see myself playing any don Chenko in larger field stuff.
- 15:14Speaker 1: If you do want to go Yakia, I have down
- 15:16Speaker 1: to don Chenko, leave one hundred plus and chalk your teams.
- 15:19Speaker 1: I'm fine with it. But in a vacuum, I definitely
- 15:21Speaker 1: am on the Yaki ay Have side. But yeah, I
- 15:24Speaker 1: like Uh, I like Theodor a little bit at sixty
- 15:26Speaker 1: eight hundred. All right, we'll keep it rolling. Good fight
- 15:30Speaker 1: right here, Javier Rayes and con hopefully Rayes minus two thirty, ohfully,
- 15:35Speaker 1: plus one ninety five. This fight is minus one fifty
- 15:38Speaker 1: to finish, Rayes plus one twenty inside the distance, ohfully,
- 15:41Speaker 1: plus three sixty. A lot of line movement on the
- 15:44Speaker 1: Rayes side, as you can see on Tuesday, Reyes minus
- 15:47Speaker 1: one sixty three. Now he's minus two thirty. That is
- 15:51Speaker 1: a lot of line movement. Was minus one forty to finish,
- 15:54Speaker 1: now minus one fifty. I am definitely gonna be buying
- 15:56Speaker 1: into that line movement. Rays has been impressive one on
- 16:00Speaker 1: Contender Series one in his UFC debut, first round knockouts.
- 16:05Speaker 1: Thirty two years old, but he's twenty three and five,
- 16:07Speaker 1: so he has experience, he has power, He's solid on
- 16:11Speaker 1: the ground. I'm gonna play some awfully too, just because
- 16:14Speaker 1: plus three sixty five or plus three sixty inside the
- 16:18Speaker 1: distance is solid, and I think Reyes is gonna take
- 16:21Speaker 1: some steam so he'll get some leverage. But on team
- 16:23Speaker 1: Reyes in this one, I think he's a very strong play.
- 16:26Speaker 1: How do you see this fight going? What do you think?
- 16:29Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we kind of have striker versus grappler
- 16:31Speaker 3: in this one. Reyes is a the better striker. He's
- 16:35Speaker 3: an aggressive striker as well, can get wild, and he's
- 16:39Speaker 3: dangerous too, and I think he can overwhelm Awfully finish
- 16:42Speaker 3: him in the first round. Score one hundred hundred and
- 16:44Speaker 3: ten points here. So I definitely like Reyes. I'm picking
- 16:47Speaker 3: him to get a knockout. He's gonna be my my
- 16:49Speaker 3: overweight play. But I do think his wildness and aggressiveness
- 16:54Speaker 3: could work against him against with a wrestler like Awfully.
- 16:57Speaker 3: I think that could lead to him getting taken down
- 17:00Speaker 3: Awfully decent grappler. I think the submission is really in
- 17:03Speaker 3: play in any round, and I also think he could
- 17:07Speaker 3: land multiple takedowns, land a lot.
- 17:08Speaker 2: Of top control time. It's just that he can't really.
- 17:12Speaker 3: I don't think he can strike with Reyes early, so
- 17:14Speaker 3: he's got to wrestle early or survive the early storm,
- 17:18Speaker 3: and I think he could win grappling late. So I
- 17:21Speaker 3: am going to play a little bit of Awfully. It'll
- 17:23Speaker 3: be more so as a hedge to my Reyes. I
- 17:26Speaker 3: do want to get overweight to Reyes, although I mean
- 17:29Speaker 3: I guess with the line movie he's gonna get a
- 17:30Speaker 3: little chalk here with it as well. I liked him
- 17:32Speaker 3: more so at his earlier price, I guess, but I
- 17:36Speaker 3: just don't feel great about Reyes winning a decision, and
- 17:41Speaker 3: I also don't feel great about him scoring well in
- 17:43Speaker 3: the decision. I just picked him to win with the
- 17:45Speaker 3: first round knockout. If that happens, he's on the optimal line.
- 17:49Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I don't think he probably gets there in
- 17:51Speaker 1: a decision win either. And again, this fight is only
- 17:53Speaker 1: minus one fifty to finish, but a lot of line
- 17:55Speaker 1: movement on his side that will lead to higher ownership,
- 17:58Speaker 1: which only makes me like Awfully even more. It's like
- 18:01Speaker 1: you think of it differently, usually like oh, Bunny coming
- 18:04Speaker 1: against Awfully? Why do you like him more? Because I
- 18:06Speaker 1: think the ownership discount will be greater than what it
- 18:09Speaker 1: should then if it was still minus one sixty three
- 18:13Speaker 1: plus one forty three. And yeah, Awfully usually not a
- 18:16Speaker 1: fighter I like in the UFC or like to target
- 18:19Speaker 1: for daily fantasy, because you see the stone two point
- 18:22Speaker 1: three to three significant strikes, point three to eight takedowns.
- 18:25Speaker 1: But Reyes I expect to push the pace and if
- 18:27Speaker 1: your opponent's gonna dictate the pace of the fight and
- 18:30Speaker 1: make you fight. I do think Awfully has upside when
- 18:33Speaker 1: he does wins. So yeah, I'm in on this mid
- 18:35Speaker 1: tier fight. I think it's very good. I prefer it
- 18:37Speaker 1: to the to hear Jefferson fight and not Tomoto Almacon fight,
- 18:41Speaker 1: which we've talked about in the mid tier thus far.
- 18:45Speaker 1: All right, let me hop over to our ship and
- 18:47Speaker 1: Nation homepage right now, show you how you can get
- 18:50Speaker 1: in with us over at ship in Nation usually ninety
- 18:52Speaker 1: nine dollars for all access sabersim discord all of the
- 18:56Speaker 1: sports above only forty nine dollars for your first month.
- 18:59Speaker 1: Cannot beat that deal. We would love to have you.
- 19:01Speaker 1: You continue to keep improving the PGA. The Stone two
- 19:06Speaker 1: point zero is really really cool. You can like plug
- 19:08Speaker 1: in Scotti Sheffler. See what it leaves you with salary. Here.
- 19:12Speaker 1: Let me just show you real quick. Maybe we'll have
- 19:14Speaker 1: this in some other sports, but look at that you
- 19:16Speaker 1: plug in Scotty Speed. That shows how much per player
- 19:21Speaker 1: percent ownership. You can optimize the lineup and it fills in.
- 19:24Speaker 1: You can sort a lot of cool stuff. PGA has
- 19:27Speaker 1: massive prize pools. Of course, we get MLB, the slate
- 19:30Speaker 1: station MMA projections, ownership the Stone which we show slate
- 19:34Speaker 1: plan tier rankings, fight rankings, core reports, fan duel, DraftKings,
- 19:38Speaker 1: NASCAR is big contests on Sunday. Next thing you know,
- 19:42Speaker 1: NFL is going to be back, So we absolutely would
- 19:46Speaker 1: love to have you if you do want to try
- 19:47Speaker 1: it out for a little cheaper than forty nine dollars
- 19:49Speaker 1: bottom left, join the Nation. You can get in as
- 19:51Speaker 1: low as nineteen dollars four or five days. You get
- 19:54Speaker 1: Discord and Sabersim. If you're like I just play MMA
- 19:57Speaker 1: and that is all I want to the far right
- 19:59Speaker 1: single sport MMA. We also have that option less than
- 20:02Speaker 1: a dollar a day for all of our content, just
- 20:05Speaker 1: twenty dollars more if you do want to add Sabersim,
- 20:07Speaker 1: and again Discord is included in that. We would love
- 20:11Speaker 1: to have you UFC pretty much every single week, not
- 20:13Speaker 1: next week with the fourth of July, but a lot
- 20:16Speaker 1: of weeks. And again nine am Eastern is the start
- 20:18Speaker 1: time this weekend. All right. Next fight on the card
- 20:22Speaker 1: another fight expected to finish NURDS Withton Ruziboye of Taken,
- 20:25Speaker 1: an Andre Puliev Rosie Boy of minus two, ten Puollia
- 20:28Speaker 1: of plus one eighty. This fight opened. Wow, it just
- 20:32Speaker 1: continues to go down open minus two sixty to finish
- 20:35Speaker 1: now minus one sixty five Rosie boy Of plus one
- 20:38Speaker 1: hundred inside the distance Poollia plus three point fifty. That
- 20:41Speaker 1: is a lot of line movement on the over minus
- 20:44Speaker 1: two sixty to minus one sixty five The Stone all
- 20:47Speaker 1: Red Red Red Red. I don't think there's gonna be
- 20:50Speaker 1: much grappling in this one. This is dogg or pass
- 20:53Speaker 1: for me for the most part. I do not like
- 20:55Speaker 1: the upside in this fight. But if someone wins and
- 20:58Speaker 1: score seventy poollye Of, it's set me. Four hundred is
- 21:00Speaker 1: a lot more likely to be optimal than Rouzy Boyev.
- 21:03Speaker 1: So dogger passed. But I don't love this fight. What
- 21:05Speaker 1: about you?
- 21:07Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely closer to a two star than a four star.
- 21:11Speaker 3: Rusal Boyev I think is the better overall fighter everywhere,
- 21:15Speaker 3: but he's gonna really rely on an early finish because
- 21:19Speaker 3: he's just more dangerous everywhere, and he's not active enough
- 21:23Speaker 3: for him to score well in the decision, So we
- 21:25Speaker 3: just need that early finish, and I think he could
- 21:28Speaker 3: get it on the feet or the ground.
- 21:29Speaker 2: So I'm okay playing a little bit of rouse Boyev, But.
- 21:32Speaker 3: Man, when I'm paying that much money, I do like
- 21:34Speaker 3: people who can score minutes a minute, and I just
- 21:36Speaker 3: don't think he is that.
- 21:37Speaker 2: And I think since he's not that, that is what
- 21:40Speaker 2: puts Puly I have in play.
- 21:42Speaker 3: I think he could win minutes at range just going
- 21:45Speaker 3: strike for strike. Sure, maybe he could knock out ruse
- 21:48Speaker 3: Boyev as well, but he's just a type that of
- 21:52Speaker 3: underdogs who can score like sixty to seventy five points
- 21:55Speaker 3: and on this card, I'm okay with that. So he's
- 21:59Speaker 3: gonna be in that range with auf Ley, who I
- 22:02Speaker 3: want to play a little bit of him at lower
- 22:04Speaker 3: ownership than the Becks that and the Nasamento. But at
- 22:08Speaker 3: the same time, I'm picking both of them to lose.
- 22:09Speaker 3: Give me roos Boie to probably finish them at some point.
- 22:13Speaker 3: But to eighty eight hundred, what do we think it's
- 22:15Speaker 3: round one or bust? Can he get there?
- 22:17Speaker 1: Pretty much? I don't think it's gonna be high enough
- 22:20Speaker 1: pace fight where he gets in the second round, and
- 22:22Speaker 1: the upper tier has enough upside on the card where
- 22:25Speaker 1: I don't love the chances.
- 22:27Speaker 3: So maybe I cat my exposure at his first round,
- 22:31Speaker 3: his first round line, and.
- 22:32Speaker 1: I will say his first line round line is actually
- 22:35Speaker 1: pretty good plus two eighty five plus three fifty at
- 22:38Speaker 1: another book, so always price shop. But that's twenty six percent.
- 22:41Speaker 1: We have his ownership projected under twenty six percent. So
- 22:44Speaker 1: when you say it like that, yeah, I mean I'm
- 22:47Speaker 1: always open to change some stuff a little bit, maybe
- 22:49Speaker 1: in larger field stuff. In one point fifty, you can
- 22:51Speaker 1: match that round one prop because if I knew he
- 22:53Speaker 1: got a round one finish, not all round one finishes
- 22:56Speaker 1: are guaranteed to be optimal. But I'm definitely taking my
- 22:59Speaker 1: chances at pretty low ownership, especially on a card where
- 23:01Speaker 1: I do want the main events and some other chalkier fights,
- 23:04Speaker 1: so they're both gonna be my pool. I still don't
- 23:07Speaker 1: love the fight. I think it's low paced, but it
- 23:10Speaker 1: doesn't have me thinking comparing his run one prop to
- 23:12Speaker 1: his ownership a little bit, so I don't hate it
- 23:15Speaker 1: to get different. I definitely don't love it though. That's
- 23:17Speaker 1: a lot a lot of line movements on the over all. Right,
- 23:21Speaker 1: let's move to a fight that's gonna take me about
- 23:23Speaker 1: ten to fifteen seconds after I introduce it. Abdul Rockman
- 23:26Speaker 1: Yakayeya minus six hundred, taking on Julius Walker plus four
- 23:30Speaker 1: to twenty five minus six hundred for this fight to finish,
- 23:33Speaker 1: yak Yaya minus three twenty five inside the distance Walker
- 23:36Speaker 1: plus five twenty five Yack guy Have in round one
- 23:39Speaker 1: minus one forty and the open minus one thirty. Yack
- 23:43Speaker 1: guy haves a monster. I think he knocks him out
- 23:45Speaker 1: in roun one. I think he's live for a first
- 23:47Speaker 1: minute bonus. With that being said, if you're playing one
- 23:50Speaker 1: hundred and fifty teams or even seventy five plus teams,
- 23:53Speaker 1: Walker Walker inside the distance is plus five to fifty
- 23:57Speaker 1: plus five to fifty comes out to fifteen point four percent.
- 24:00Speaker 1: I think he will be lower own than fifteen point
- 24:02Speaker 1: four percent. If any of you guys watched the video
- 24:06Speaker 1: of Sheets last week, you and I, he's gonna say
- 24:09Speaker 1: the same thing. He will play some Walker, and I
- 24:13Speaker 1: think he'll be overweight Walker. Not only when Walker wins
- 24:16Speaker 1: does he score well himself. Yak kyey Have will get
- 24:19Speaker 1: a decent ownership, and then a little under half the
- 24:22Speaker 1: field is dead. So game theory, I get the Walker play.
- 24:25Speaker 1: If I'm looking at I know fights and blah blah blah.
- 24:28Speaker 1: Walker scores six yak Ye I have scores one oh nine.
- 24:32Speaker 1: Is that enough at ninety five hundred.
- 24:36Speaker 2: Shah?
- 24:37Speaker 3: I mean, I actually think Walker has wrestling upside early,
- 24:41Speaker 3: but I don't think he could wrestle for fifteen minutes,
- 24:43Speaker 3: so he would probably need to use his power.
- 24:45Speaker 2: To get a knockout.
- 24:47Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that Yakiyaeyev gets back up and he
- 24:50Speaker 3: can get takedowns of his own, or he can knock
- 24:52Speaker 3: out Walker on the feet. Uh So for me, it's
- 24:55Speaker 3: just gonna be yak Ye. Ever pass I'm not gonna
- 24:56Speaker 3: make a hundred well, I don't know. Maybe I'm not
- 24:59Speaker 3: against me one hundred and fifty, but I still think
- 25:01Speaker 3: on this card it's really for me, especially at nine
- 25:04Speaker 3: o'clock in the morning, so I'm probably gonna be twenty
- 25:06Speaker 3: or less. And with that type of with that many lineups,
- 25:10Speaker 3: I dot I get to any Walker at all. Yakyayev
- 25:14Speaker 3: made I feel like usually we're paying a ninety six
- 25:17Speaker 3: or ninety seven hundred dollars for him ninety five I
- 25:20Speaker 3: like quite a bit, So he is my favorite, maybe
- 25:22Speaker 3: second favorite play on the slate. So I'm gonna try
- 25:25Speaker 3: and get as much of him as I can. But
- 25:28Speaker 3: I really don't like underdogs on this card, so I
- 25:30Speaker 3: think my underdogs are gonna decide how much Yakya I
- 25:33Speaker 3: can get.
- 25:34Speaker 1: Yeah, that makes sense, And again I don't know how
- 25:36Speaker 1: many stars and the scrub team I want. So that's
- 25:38Speaker 1: why when I do spend all the way up, even
- 25:40Speaker 1: though don Schhenko is lower ow, it's a way to
- 25:42Speaker 1: get different. We have thirteen fights, I'd rather get different
- 25:45Speaker 1: some other spots I do one of my stands. We'll
- 25:47Speaker 1: be hoping Yakayev does outscore don Chenko in a vacuum,
- 25:51Speaker 1: maybe by a decent bit, so then that one hundred
- 25:54Speaker 1: I mean it could zero out to don Chhenko teams.
- 25:57Speaker 1: I probably prefer that, to be honest. If you want
- 25:59Speaker 1: to get different, you can leave one hundred plus don
- 26:01Speaker 1: Chenk over yaki Iev. I think most of my don
- 26:04Speaker 1: Chenko teams, though, I want to leave zero dollars because
- 26:07Speaker 1: I'm just gonna pretend I know fights more than game
- 26:11Speaker 1: theory or whatever this week, which usually not the way
- 26:13Speaker 1: I want to do it. But I think yak guy
- 26:15Speaker 1: have outscores him a lot more times, so I want
- 26:18Speaker 1: to be on that side when I am spending all
- 26:20Speaker 1: the way up. What's up my Mytaos. Good to see you.
- 26:24Speaker 1: Hope you're doing well. All right, we'll keep it rolling again.
- 26:27Speaker 1: All these fights are expected to finish until a couple
- 26:29Speaker 1: more later. We have Farman Hassanov taking on definitely Butcher
- 26:35Speaker 1: that Hasanov. I'm gonna say that taking on Eric Nolan
- 26:38Speaker 1: Farman minus one seventy Nolan plus one forty five minus
- 26:41Speaker 1: two fifteen for this fight to finish Farman plus one
- 26:45Speaker 1: fifteen inside the distance Nolan plus two thirty five tucking
- 26:50Speaker 1: round one props. Farman plus three hundred Nolan plus six fifty.
- 26:55Speaker 1: I think this is a great fight to target right,
- 26:56Speaker 1: kind of in that mid tier as well, minus two
- 26:59Speaker 1: fifteen finish. I mean, Nolan seems like my preferred play
- 27:03Speaker 1: because he's one k cheaper. We need dogs. The money
- 27:06Speaker 1: line's good, the inside the distance is good. I think
- 27:09Speaker 1: Farman's a lot more likely to wrestle, though he's only
- 27:11Speaker 1: five and zero. It's a fight. I'm gonna be playing
- 27:13Speaker 1: both sides of him. If you do want to avoid
- 27:15Speaker 1: stars and scrubs, you can load up eighty six hundred
- 27:18Speaker 1: and seventy six hundred and then just keep getting closer
- 27:21Speaker 1: and salary in the midsier. There's a lot of strong
- 27:23Speaker 1: fights that can score pretty well. So I'm in on
- 27:26Speaker 1: this one, prefer Nolan. If choosing what about you, Yeah.
- 27:31Speaker 2: I'm I'm okay with this fight.
- 27:32Speaker 3: I think it's closer to a four star than a
- 27:34Speaker 3: two star Hasanov. He Yeah, he looks like a powerful
- 27:40Speaker 3: striker and a good wrestler, But another one where I
- 27:44Speaker 3: don't see him laying a bunch of volume on the feet.
- 27:46Speaker 3: I think it would come down to him land in
- 27:48Speaker 3: a big shot if he's going to be striking in
- 27:50Speaker 3: this one, but he could score on the ground, you know,
- 27:53Speaker 3: minutes a minute. My worry with him would be his
- 27:56Speaker 3: gas tank. I think that he could start out hot,
- 27:58Speaker 3: do really good early, and then slow down. And I
- 28:01Speaker 3: think Nolan is the one that would fight for our money,
- 28:03Speaker 3: be around in the second and the third round, maybe
- 28:06Speaker 3: even win those rounds. So the way I see it
- 28:09Speaker 3: is Hasanov has the one hundred plus first round equity,
- 28:12Speaker 3: but if Nolan makes it out of that first round,
- 28:15Speaker 3: then I would start wishing that I had more Nolan exposure,
- 28:19Speaker 3: and I think he is live to just win on volume,
- 28:21Speaker 3: being the more scrappy guy, maybe even in round three.
- 28:24Speaker 2: He could wrestle if if Haasanov is gassed out. So
- 28:28Speaker 2: I'm cool with either side of this fight. I prefer Gosh,
- 28:33Speaker 2: I don't really know.
- 28:33Speaker 3: I guess I would prefer Hassanov if I'm just starting
- 28:36Speaker 3: like with a handbuild, see what I can do with it,
- 28:39Speaker 3: and then drop down to Nolan. But I feel like
- 28:41Speaker 3: that's what I'm gonna end up doing. And when I
- 28:43Speaker 3: don't like underdogs, I feel like I'm gonna click on
- 28:45Speaker 3: Nolan's and off Lee's and koli Ievs as long as
- 28:48Speaker 3: I don't have the opposing fighter.
- 28:50Speaker 2: Already in my lineup. So all three of those underdogs
- 28:53Speaker 2: very similar to me.
- 28:54Speaker 3: I do think Nolan is my favorite that we've talked
- 28:57Speaker 3: about so far, though, Yeah.
- 29:01Speaker 1: I mute mute donkey. I always separate. Like in the
- 29:05Speaker 1: tier rankings over here at Chip Nations, you can see
- 29:08Speaker 1: I go eighty six hundred. There it is eighty six
- 29:11Speaker 1: hundred plus eighty five to seventy seven seventy six in below.
- 29:15Speaker 1: Eric Nolan is my favorite fighter seventy six hundred and below.
- 29:18Speaker 1: I do expect to be overweight, and I do think
- 29:21Speaker 1: Farman's ownership hass to stay in check to an extent
- 29:24Speaker 1: with a lot of good fighters priced around him, and
- 29:26Speaker 1: he's plus one fifteen inside of distance and plus three
- 29:28Speaker 1: hundred in round one with wrestling upside minus two to
- 29:32Speaker 1: fifteen for the fight to finish. I'm playing this fight.
- 29:34Speaker 1: I hope Owner Sip does stay in check. I want
- 29:36Speaker 1: to be overweight. Let's go to another fight. Expected to
- 29:40Speaker 1: finish good mid tier fight eighty three hundred seventy nine hundred.
- 29:44Speaker 1: The eighty three hundred fighter and a boose is a
- 29:46Speaker 1: slight underdog at minus one O three Michael ol j
- 29:49Speaker 1: check minus one seventeen minus three twenty five for this
- 29:52Speaker 1: fight to finish, the slight underdog better inside the distance
- 29:55Speaker 1: prop a boos plus one ten mikey Oh plus one
- 29:58Speaker 1: at seventy five run one props a boost plus three
- 30:02Speaker 1: hundred mikey o plus three to twenty five. As you
- 30:05Speaker 1: can see, UH for the fight to finish. UH open
- 30:08Speaker 1: minus four hundred was minus four hundred on Tuesday, now
- 30:11Speaker 1: minus three twenty five. So some over has taken. So
- 30:15Speaker 1: the over has taken some money. Man, So struggling over here,
- 30:19Speaker 1: trying to talk today. I don't know what's going on,
- 30:21Speaker 1: but we got mitaios on mikey Oh the Polish power,
- 30:25Speaker 1: even though that is Yanbohovich, but he is Polish. He
- 30:28Speaker 1: has some power. He has great body shots. Kenny stuff takedowns, though,
- 30:32Speaker 1: I think is the key in this fight. What are
- 30:33Speaker 1: you doing?
- 30:35Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna be playing Michael Oh. I like both
- 30:38Speaker 3: sides of the fight. I just think that Michael Oh
- 30:42Speaker 3: is gonna be the better boxer, the more powerful striker.
- 30:46Speaker 3: He's been picking up his volume as well, which I
- 30:49Speaker 3: always like to see. But I also think he's the
- 30:51Speaker 3: one who will fight for your money late. Not only
- 30:54Speaker 3: that he's got better cardio, but a boost is a quitter.
- 30:57Speaker 3: If it starts going Michael O's way, I think a
- 30:59Speaker 3: Boos will look for the door and maybe that's a
- 31:02Speaker 3: second round knockout or a third round knockout just based
- 31:04Speaker 3: on that. But the Polish power could be a round
- 31:08Speaker 3: one knockout as well. So there's a wide range for
- 31:11Speaker 3: Michael Loh in this one. I picked him when he
- 31:13Speaker 3: was an underdog though, so he was already my favorite
- 31:17Speaker 3: underdog pick, like before salaries were released. I'm like, all right, well,
- 31:20Speaker 3: I'm gonna have to get Michael Oh my freaking lineup
- 31:22Speaker 3: because I don't like any of these other other guys.
- 31:25Speaker 3: So that's what I'm gonna do with my first line up.
- 31:27Speaker 3: At least I know Michael Oh is gonna be in there.
- 31:29Speaker 3: But a Boost is a good striker at range. He's talented.
- 31:34Speaker 3: His upside would be grappling. You would probably need a submission, though,
- 31:38Speaker 3: because I don't think he could wrestle and grapple for
- 31:41Speaker 3: a full fifteen minutes. Even if he is wrestling and
- 31:44Speaker 3: grappling heavy round one doing really good, I would imagine
- 31:47Speaker 3: that just boosts up his quick tank as well. So
- 31:50Speaker 3: give me Michael Low to get a knockout at some point.
- 31:53Speaker 1: I also picked Mike ye Oh when I did these
- 31:55Speaker 1: again on Tuesday. You can see it was minus one
- 31:57Speaker 1: thirty a boost mikey O plus one ten. I was
- 32:00Speaker 1: on Michelle a J check. I was surprised to see
- 32:02Speaker 1: him the underdog when I looked at the odds, but
- 32:06Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, people, I guess saw it the same
- 32:07Speaker 1: as same as me, And now the line is flipped.
- 32:10Speaker 1: With that being said, I mean we play game like
- 32:13Speaker 1: we played Daily Fantasy, a salary ownership based game. So
- 32:16Speaker 1: even though I'm picking Mike Yo, I am open to
- 32:18Speaker 1: changing in this fight. If I think ownership's like thirty
- 32:21Speaker 1: seven percent Mike Yo twenty five at boost, a boost
- 32:24Speaker 1: is by far my preferred play, then I think the
- 32:26Speaker 1: ownership would be too wide of the gap. A boost
- 32:28Speaker 1: the wrestling upside, A boost a better inside the distance prop.
- 32:32Speaker 1: I don't feel strongly about Mike Yo winning, so to
- 32:35Speaker 1: be honest, I almost hope the odds keep going to
- 32:37Speaker 1: mike Yoh's way, because if that's the case, I think
- 32:39Speaker 1: ownership will continue to spread out, and then a boost
- 32:42Speaker 1: probably comes becomes my favorite play or becomes my preferred
- 32:46Speaker 1: play in this fight. I don't love to see the
- 32:49Speaker 1: overtaking money, but I mean a boost wins a decision,
- 32:52Speaker 1: he can easily score one hundred plus, and Mike y
- 32:54Speaker 1: O wins a decision, I'm not sure it really gets there.
- 32:57Speaker 1: I'm thinking, if I hear, if I know right now
- 32:59Speaker 1: he would decision, I think a boost probably wins round
- 33:02Speaker 1: one wrestling, mikey yostaffs takedowns wins two and three, and
- 33:05Speaker 1: if that's the case, the fight probably busts. So by
- 33:08Speaker 1: no means all in fight, Mike yea pick, but a
- 33:13Speaker 1: boost might be my prefer play. I have to see
- 33:15Speaker 1: where the line's going and projected ownership where you project
- 33:18Speaker 1: this fight's ownership to be is very important. Yeah, good
- 33:22Speaker 1: one to target through in the mid tier for sure.
- 33:25Speaker 1: Let's go to another great one to target A five
- 33:27Speaker 1: star for the man, mister Marley minus two to eighty
- 33:31Speaker 1: is Akramal scare of plus two to forty is Bruno
- 33:33Speaker 1: Ferreira minus four hundred for this fight to finish Eli
- 33:36Speaker 1: scare of minus one sixty inside the distance Ferrera plus
- 33:39Speaker 1: two to eighty five Eli scare of round one plus
- 33:42Speaker 1: one ninety five forer Ara round one plus four point fifty.
- 33:46Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, I totally agree. You have two five
- 33:48Speaker 1: star fights and this it's this one in the main event.
- 33:51Speaker 1: I would also have two five star fights, it would
- 33:53Speaker 1: be this one and the main event. I think you
- 33:55Speaker 1: load up on both sides. I think Elle scare of
- 33:57Speaker 1: wrestles in this one and dominates on the mat. If
- 34:00Speaker 1: he doesn't, he can knock out Bruno, but that is
- 34:03Speaker 1: where Bruno is also most live, is on the feet
- 34:05Speaker 1: to get a knockout. Too, great fight to target. I
- 34:08Speaker 1: don't think many other things need to be said on
- 34:11Speaker 1: my end, So take it away.
- 34:14Speaker 3: Yeah, Ferrera one hundred point upside as an underdog.
- 34:17Speaker 2: He's just got big time power.
- 34:19Speaker 3: Could knock out Aliskaroff in the first round and then
- 34:22Speaker 3: it becomes a no Ferrera, no cash type of night.
- 34:25Speaker 3: I don't really want to fade that, but I do
- 34:28Speaker 3: think that the ownership will be there for him, and
- 34:31Speaker 3: I just think that alis Garoff really hasn't covered everywhere
- 34:34Speaker 3: aside from I mean maybe even Alscarraff has more one
- 34:38Speaker 3: punch power, but it doesn't matter if you're the one
- 34:40Speaker 3: that catches that first punch. So I mean, you gotta
- 34:44Speaker 3: play a little bit of frera the more you're IMMI
- 34:46Speaker 3: meaning I think. But Ali Kaov at ninety one hundred
- 34:50Speaker 3: for four hundred dollars cheaper than Yak Yayem, I just
- 34:53Speaker 3: think he's gonna be one of my highest ho plays
- 34:55Speaker 3: on the car because he could knock out fer Air
- 34:57Speaker 3: in the first round because he's got just as much power.
- 35:00Speaker 3: I trust him more in the second round. I trust
- 35:02Speaker 3: him more in the in the third round too, and
- 35:05Speaker 3: I just think that he could take it to the
- 35:07Speaker 3: ground in Mal Ferrera and finish him there in any
- 35:11Speaker 3: round as well. So Ali Skarov is my is one
- 35:14Speaker 3: of my favorite picks on the card. He's my favorite
- 35:16Speaker 3: bet as well. The line has climbed, though I still
- 35:19Speaker 3: think there's value on him though I think he finishes
- 35:21Speaker 3: for Ayer. I think he probably makes it look easy.
- 35:23Speaker 3: Just got to avoid that knockout shot.
- 35:25Speaker 2: And really in round one.
- 35:28Speaker 1: I totally agree with everything you said. Yeah, you talked
- 35:30Speaker 1: line movement. Ali Scarebb opened minus three hundred three hours later,
- 35:34Speaker 1: two hours later was minus one ninety five, and ever
- 35:37Speaker 1: since then he's continued to climb. He was all the
- 35:40Speaker 1: way down to minus three thirty today though, and there
- 35:42Speaker 1: was some money that came back on the Ferrera side. Yeah,
- 35:45Speaker 1: I played for Ayer because similar to Eon last week,
- 35:48Speaker 1: I know cute Labla loss almost got a first round submission.
- 35:51Speaker 1: Ferrera has that first round upside. But I think Ali
- 35:54Speaker 1: Scareb owns him four hundred less than yak Yayev. I'm
- 35:57Speaker 1: fine even leaving the money four hundred and not playing
- 36:00Speaker 1: yak Yayev, like I prefer Ali Scairev to don Chenko
- 36:03Speaker 1: in a vacuum. So that's how I see it. Ninety
- 36:06Speaker 1: one hundred. I will definitely have a lot of ikram
- 36:09Speaker 1: Ali Scarev. Let's go to the third fight that it's
- 36:13Speaker 1: expected to go the distance a sue, umabai, excuse me, sue,
- 36:17Speaker 1: Alma Bay of minus two ninety, I really can't talk.
- 36:20Speaker 1: Charles Johnson plus two forty five plus one sixty for
- 36:23Speaker 1: this fight to finish a sue plus two to fifteen
- 36:26Speaker 1: inside the distance Johnson plus six hundred, even though this
- 36:29Speaker 1: fight's expected to go the distance Tuesday, A sue is
- 36:32Speaker 1: minus two fifty now minus two ninety. All I need
- 36:35Speaker 1: to see though, four point four to six takedowns per
- 36:38Speaker 1: fifteen minutes that automatically will have my attention. I think
- 36:42Speaker 1: probably the biggest, the most upside on the card. I
- 36:46Speaker 1: don't know. Yeah, yai have because the first minute bonus.
- 36:48Speaker 1: But like amabayav could go out there like Cody Dirden
- 36:51Speaker 1: did or Makaya did and land ten plus takedowns and
- 36:54Speaker 1: absolutely nuke this slate. So at eighty nine hundred, it's
- 36:56Speaker 1: an easy, easy click for a suit. Alma bay of
- 37:00Speaker 1: Charles Johnson feels like a floor play. But the dude
- 37:02Speaker 1: knocked out Joshua Van and Monty Kavanaugh, So that's kind
- 37:05Speaker 1: of all I need to say about him. On his
- 37:07Speaker 1: best day, if he's beating them, he can beat a sue.
- 37:10Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm gonna play some of Sue. I'm gonna
- 37:12Speaker 1: play some Johnson. I definitely prefer as Sue Almabia though
- 37:16Speaker 1: in this one, because eighty nine hundred. You can go
- 37:19Speaker 1: yaka Ayev down him. You can go Ellis Scareb down
- 37:21Speaker 1: to him, you can go down Chenko down to him.
- 37:23Speaker 1: There is past. He is the highest score on the
- 37:25Speaker 1: slate if he changed wrestles, and Johnson can get back up.
- 37:29Speaker 1: So yeah, it's expected to go to the distance, but
- 37:31Speaker 1: I'm playing it. What about you?
- 37:33Speaker 3: Yeah, I almost made this a four star. I do
- 37:35Speaker 3: like both sides of this fight. Almabia has the most
- 37:39Speaker 3: wrestling upside on the card. What would you say his
- 37:42Speaker 3: takedown prop bet, I would imagine like three and a half,
- 37:44Speaker 3: four and a half.
- 37:45Speaker 1: I was gonna yeah, I was gonna say four and
- 37:46Speaker 1: a half. Five. Five is obviously a push, so usually
- 37:49Speaker 1: don't do that, but yeah, I mean at least one
- 37:52Speaker 1: around and what Dirden did to him, and obviously Makaive's
- 37:55Speaker 1: on a different level, but the past clear like it's
- 37:58Speaker 1: it's happened before.
- 38:00Speaker 3: Yeah, and I would imagine he's gonna land them early
- 38:04Speaker 3: and often too, So Yeah, Almabia has big time upside
- 38:08Speaker 3: even in a decision win, and I think it would
- 38:10Speaker 3: be a decision win if he gets his hand raised,
- 38:13Speaker 3: but Johnson he can get back up, which is also
- 38:18Speaker 3: good for Almabaya. But I think that Johnson can kind
- 38:21Speaker 3: of have his way with Almabiah on the feet, and
- 38:24Speaker 3: he's a He's a late starter, so I think he
- 38:26Speaker 3: gets taken down a couple of times early, but the
- 38:28Speaker 3: longer this fight goes, I just kind of think he
- 38:30Speaker 3: can find his way land a lot of shots on
- 38:32Speaker 3: the feet, maybe tire Almabia out, especially if he's wrestling
- 38:35Speaker 3: heavy early, and I just think those shots could add up.
- 38:38Speaker 3: We could get a t KO from Charles Johnson. We
- 38:40Speaker 3: could also get just a close split decision where he
- 38:43Speaker 3: wins the last half of the fight. So Johnson is
- 38:47Speaker 3: one of my favorite sheet plays on the card. I'm
- 38:50Speaker 3: gonna be playing both sides of this one. I like
- 38:52Speaker 3: Almabia for his upside, but when I was hunting for underdogs,
- 38:57Speaker 3: I was like, you know what, screw, I'll be going
- 38:59Speaker 3: back and forth on this one on the lines kind
- 39:01Speaker 3: of selling me on Johnson.
- 39:02Speaker 2: Let me pick Johnson by split. So that that's my prediction.
- 39:06Speaker 3: I guess I'll probably end up with more Johnson lineups.
- 39:09Speaker 1: All right, we're a little different on that one, but
- 39:11Speaker 1: I get it because the salary line movement. This one
- 39:14Speaker 1: almabay have opened minus four hundred one minute later was
- 39:18Speaker 1: minus two hundred. Man, these people are setting alerts on
- 39:21Speaker 1: bed online whenever they announce these fights. And my guess
- 39:25Speaker 1: is the limits are very low to start, and the
- 39:26Speaker 1: lines move very quickly when they see sharps hitting it.
- 39:29Speaker 1: But minus four hundred down to minus two hundred, and
- 39:32Speaker 1: then Almabiah has taking money cents. Let's go to another
- 39:36Speaker 1: fight with some line movement. Azeem Sadakov minus one eighty
- 39:39Speaker 1: one Mattaeus Camillo plus one fifty six minus two twenty
- 39:42Speaker 1: for this fight to finish Sadikov minus one thirty five
- 39:45Speaker 1: inside the distance Camillo plus four to ten Setikov in
- 39:49Speaker 1: round one plus two seventy five. You can see on
- 39:53Speaker 1: Tuesday Sadikoff was minus two forty. Now he's minus one
- 39:56Speaker 1: eighty one. That is a lot of line movements on
- 39:59Speaker 1: the commit side. But that being said, Sadykov opened plus
- 40:03Speaker 1: one twenty inside the distance now is minus one thirty
- 40:06Speaker 1: five this fight on Tuesday minus one eighty to finish
- 40:09Speaker 1: Now minus two to twenty. All that is music to
- 40:12Speaker 1: my ears. The undertaking a lot of money. Sadakov didn't
- 40:17Speaker 1: take money on the money line, but his inside the
- 40:19Speaker 1: distance prop did, so he's favored to finish, and Camillo
- 40:22Speaker 1: taking quite a bit of money. We need dogs at
- 40:24Speaker 1: seventy two hundred. I think this at ownership might be
- 40:27Speaker 1: my favorite fight on the card. Obviously Forhaziv Torres, ninety
- 40:31Speaker 1: plus percent are gonna play it, Alis gerre Ferreira, it's
- 40:34Speaker 1: gonna be popular. This fight I don't think will be
- 40:37Speaker 1: too popular, and yeah, I like both sides quite a bit.
- 40:40Speaker 1: I will be hoping it's optimal when it is all
- 40:42Speaker 1: said and done. Not even sure I have a preferred play.
- 40:45Speaker 1: I just I mean probably Camillo because he's taken a
- 40:48Speaker 1: lot of money and he's seventy two hundred. But I
- 40:50Speaker 1: think the Zim's a beast too. He's gonna fight for
- 40:52Speaker 1: my dollar. Both have some wrestling upside. I like this
- 40:56Speaker 1: fight quite a bit. Break it down for me.
- 40:59Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't like it.
- 41:00Speaker 3: I like it as much as you, but that could
- 41:01Speaker 3: sell me on liking it a little bit more. But
- 41:03Speaker 3: I really don't like it that much because of the
- 41:05Speaker 3: Satakov side, like at nine K.
- 41:07Speaker 2: I just think that he probably needs the finish.
- 41:09Speaker 3: I don't see him being on the optimal lineup in
- 41:11Speaker 3: a decision win. He is primarily a striker. I think
- 41:15Speaker 3: he is the better striker. I think he's more dangerous
- 41:17Speaker 3: as well. I picked him to win, but if he
- 41:22Speaker 3: doesn't get a finish, I would just bet that he's
- 41:24Speaker 3: not going to be on the optimal lineup, and I
- 41:27Speaker 3: don't feel good about him knocking out Camillo. I think
- 41:30Speaker 3: Camillo's a decent striker. I expect him to improve more
- 41:33Speaker 3: in between fights. I think he's going to be our
- 41:36Speaker 3: more likely wrestler here. I think he can slow the
- 41:40Speaker 3: fight down to where it is just a more boring fight,
- 41:44Speaker 3: and if he wins, he can score, you know, in sixty.
- 41:47Speaker 2: To eighty, even ninety. I don't know.
- 41:50Speaker 3: I'm not sure on the Camillo side, but I would
- 41:53Speaker 3: say he's my preferred play just because he's an underdog
- 41:56Speaker 3: in a fight that I think could be back and forth,
- 41:58Speaker 3: and he's live, so I have way less interest than you.
- 42:02Speaker 2: Actually moved it to a two star a.
- 42:04Speaker 3: Little bit earlier in the show, but I did change
- 42:09Speaker 3: it to Camillo as my preferred play of the two
- 42:12Speaker 3: because of those reasons, So I'll probably end up with
- 42:14Speaker 3: more of him.
- 42:15Speaker 1: Hey, I like disagreeing, and again that's part of my
- 42:19Speaker 1: stand is this fight will be I think relatively low owned,
- 42:22Speaker 1: modern ownership. It's not really getting love, especially SADYKV. When
- 42:25Speaker 1: people see a minus one and eighty one favorite at
- 42:27Speaker 1: nine k they're just not going to go there. And
- 42:30Speaker 1: I think he has quite a bit upside. So I
- 42:33Speaker 1: like this fight on both sides. I will be overweight
- 42:35Speaker 1: hoping it's optimal. Big Marley will be hoping it is
- 42:38Speaker 1: not optimal. A fight I will be hoping is not optimal.
- 42:41Speaker 1: It looks like Big Marley's on the same page. Is
- 42:43Speaker 1: this next one in the co main event Sharamiga Metta
- 42:46Speaker 1: minus four hundred, Michelle Preira plus three hundred minus one
- 42:50Speaker 1: thirty for this fight to finish, Shara plus one oh
- 42:52Speaker 1: five inside the distance Prayer plus four seventy five this
- 42:56Speaker 1: fight open minus three point fifty to finish now minus
- 43:00Speaker 1: one thirty, Shara open minus three hundred, now minus four hundred.
- 43:05Speaker 1: I mean, char is a great real life fighter. He's
- 43:08Speaker 1: a phenomenal striker, very light on his feet, mixes it
- 43:11Speaker 1: up really well. But that doesn't necessarily do it for DFS,
- 43:14Speaker 1: most of his fights go the distance. The Armin Petrojian
- 43:17Speaker 1: fight a sick back, spinning back fist. It helped me
- 43:20Speaker 1: ship that one, so I loved it. But I mean
- 43:23Speaker 1: not lucky because he trains that and stuff. But the
- 43:26Speaker 1: fight was gonna go to the third round. He knocked
- 43:28Speaker 1: Hi out with eight seconds left in the second, it
- 43:30Speaker 1: goes to the third, it probably busts at ninety two hundred.
- 43:33Speaker 1: Gimme sadi kob, gimme almabay if, gimme alis gare, gim
- 43:36Speaker 1: me yak yayev. I'm taking a lot of upper tier
- 43:39Speaker 1: over Shara, and Prayer just might be toast. I don't
- 43:42Speaker 1: really see how he wins this fight. I don't think
- 43:44Speaker 1: he can really touch Shara. I think he'd have to
- 43:46Speaker 1: close the distance and land a big one or wrestle,
- 43:49Speaker 1: and I think he probably used too much energy for that.
- 43:51Speaker 1: So Shara by late finish or decision not optimal is
- 43:56Speaker 1: how I'm predicting this fight. I will not have too
- 43:59Speaker 1: much looks kind of like you're on the same page.
- 44:02Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't really care too much for this fight
- 44:05Speaker 3: because I'm picking shar to get the win, and I
- 44:08Speaker 3: see him similar to Sadikav where he can land some
- 44:11Speaker 3: decent volume on the feet, but I'm not expecting him
- 44:14Speaker 3: to get any takedowns, and if he's not gonna get
- 44:17Speaker 3: a knockdown or a knockout along the way, I just
- 44:18Speaker 3: think it's gonna be tough to be on the optimal
- 44:20Speaker 3: lineup at ninety two, especially when you got to compete
- 44:24Speaker 3: with yak Yayev, who I think is gonna score pretty
- 44:26Speaker 3: damn well, and you know, Alis Gareff and these other guys.
- 44:29Speaker 3: So I'm just gonna hope that Magamat Maga Medov does
- 44:33Speaker 3: win the fight and he scores you know, in the
- 44:36Speaker 3: eighties or so, and that probably isn't gonna get it done.
- 44:39Speaker 3: I think Pereira is gonna be a fade for me.
- 44:41Speaker 3: He is gonna be the better wrestler. Maybe he has
- 44:44Speaker 3: more strength than he can knock out Magamot Maga Medov,
- 44:48Speaker 3: but I just don't see that happening.
- 44:50Speaker 2: I think he is on the decline.
- 44:51Speaker 3: I think the UFC wants Shar to win this fight,
- 44:54Speaker 3: and I think Shar has all the all the striking
- 44:56Speaker 3: tools to do it.
- 44:57Speaker 2: So give me Shara.
- 44:58Speaker 3: It could be a late knockout, but I picked them
- 45:00Speaker 3: to win by a decision, and I think a decision
- 45:02Speaker 3: is not going to cut it.
- 45:03Speaker 1: For defense, we see it the exact same. I mean, yeah,
- 45:07Speaker 1: Michelle Perera is only thirty two years old, but one
- 45:09Speaker 1: of the older thirty two year olds thirty two and
- 45:12Speaker 1: fourteen pro record, he has taken a lot of damage,
- 45:14Speaker 1: been in plenty of fun wards, and yeah, it's definitely
- 45:17Speaker 1: catching up to him. So we see this fight the same.
- 45:20Speaker 1: We'll be hoping it is not optimal. All right, let
- 45:23Speaker 1: me just go over and share before we get to
- 45:26Speaker 1: the main events again one more time. Shiping Nation dot
- 45:28Speaker 1: com usually ninety nine dollars for all access, Sabers and
- 45:31Speaker 1: discord all of these sports, you get it for forty
- 45:35Speaker 1: nine dollars. Cannot beat that deal, bottom left, Join the Nation.
- 45:38Speaker 1: If you want to try us out for a little
- 45:39Speaker 1: cheaper five days for nineteen dollars. Again, I would spend
- 45:42Speaker 1: a little over double to get all thirty days, but
- 45:45Speaker 1: if you want to give us a try for cheaper
- 45:47Speaker 1: five days, nineteen dollars, Sabers and Discord. If you're just
- 45:50Speaker 1: looking for MMA bought or far right single sport MMA
- 45:54Speaker 1: twenty nine dollars, less than a dollar a day for
- 45:56Speaker 1: all the MMA content, projections, ownerships, late plan everything you need.
- 46:00Speaker 1: Discord only twenty dollars more if you do want to
- 46:03Speaker 1: add on sabersin all right, last fight of the Knight's
- 46:07Speaker 1: an absolute banger, pretty much A pick them minus five
- 46:11Speaker 1: hundred to finish is rad Fiel Phazev and Manuel Torres.
- 46:14Speaker 1: When I did these odds on Tuesday, it was a
- 46:16Speaker 1: pick them, But now Manuel Torres is a slight favorite
- 46:18Speaker 1: at minus one eighteen Taurres plus one ten. Inside of
- 46:22Speaker 1: the distance physve plus one thirty. The biggest gap is
- 46:25Speaker 1: the round one props. Torres is plus one seventy five
- 46:28Speaker 1: in round one phys plus four hundred. Nineteen of torres
- 46:33Speaker 1: twenty fights have gone or have ended in round one.
- 46:37Speaker 1: That is a wild number. Nineteen of his twenty fights
- 46:40Speaker 1: have ended in round one. L loco, that is definitely
- 46:43Speaker 1: what Manuel Torres is. He's gonna walk forward, He's gonna
- 46:46Speaker 1: throw bombs. I don't do this often, but and it's
- 46:50Speaker 1: not a confident pick like I think for Zi's the
- 46:52Speaker 1: more technical fighter, the better fighter. But sometimes I do
- 46:56Speaker 1: think craziness, loco ness just fuck everything. I'm gonna walk forward,
- 47:00Speaker 1: I'm gonna land a bomb, and I'm gonna win this fight.
- 47:02Speaker 1: I think that's what Manuel Torres is gonna come in
- 47:04Speaker 1: and do. Obviously PHYSIV has torn his acl He's thirty three,
- 47:08Speaker 1: very talented, very skilled. I just think it's Tours day
- 47:12Speaker 1: come Saturday. I think the variance, the volatility, how much
- 47:15Speaker 1: power he has. I think he lands something. He could
- 47:17Speaker 1: be down the first three minutes getting sniped at distance,
- 47:20Speaker 1: and he could just crash forward and land the big ones.
- 47:22Speaker 1: So if this fight Bus, I think it has to
- 47:25Speaker 1: be a phys finish it feels real, or a decision
- 47:28Speaker 1: of course, but I don't see that happening. It feels
- 47:31Speaker 1: hard for me to see Torres win and not be optimal.
- 47:35Speaker 1: I'm curious here your thought on that. How does this
- 47:37Speaker 1: fight bus? If you're playing twenty teams, do you have
- 47:39Speaker 1: one hundred percent and yeah, how do you see it going?
- 47:43Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not gonna make sure I have one hundred
- 47:46Speaker 3: percent of my twenty teams, but I I want to
- 47:50Speaker 3: the majority at least to have it.
- 47:52Speaker 2: But I think that, yeah, you're right.
- 47:53Speaker 3: A physief decision win or a late physiof TKO could
- 47:59Speaker 3: be what makes this not be optimal, and I think
- 48:02Speaker 3: that's really that's really live. But Torres, yeah, I don't
- 48:05Speaker 3: see how he wins the fight and is not optimal.
- 48:08Speaker 3: I would I would imagine he's good for ninety or
- 48:11Speaker 3: one hundred plus in all of his wins. He's gonna
- 48:14Speaker 3: come out dangerous early. He could knock out Physiev with
- 48:17Speaker 3: you know, a fist, an elbow, a knee. He could
- 48:21Speaker 3: submit him in the first round too, But after the
- 48:24Speaker 3: first round it's I just think it's all Physiev.
- 48:27Speaker 2: I think he's gonna read Torres. Torre is gonna slow down.
- 48:31Speaker 3: I don't think Phiziev has slowed down as much, and
- 48:33Speaker 3: the mors Torres slows down, Phiziev's just gonna pick his shots,
- 48:36Speaker 3: and I think he does knock him out at some point.
- 48:38Speaker 3: So my pick is Physiev, but he's gonna have to
- 48:42Speaker 3: weather that early storm and that could be tough to do,
- 48:44Speaker 3: especially when you're not really a wrestler. So I have
- 48:49Speaker 3: it as a three and three because I'm not confident
- 48:51Speaker 3: about my physiav pick. I think it could just be
- 48:53Speaker 3: over before Phiziev even gets a chance to show his skills.
- 48:57Speaker 2: And I also kind of hate me.
- 49:00Speaker 3: I can like handbuilding the Physiev lineup and be like, Okay,
- 49:02Speaker 3: that looks good, but should I duplicate it and then
- 49:06Speaker 3: just throw in Tores because that's what I would really
- 49:08Speaker 3: want going into the main event if I'm live with
- 49:11Speaker 3: that Physiat lineup, So that might just put me with
- 49:16Speaker 3: duplicating almost all my lineups and making Toras my preferred play.
- 49:21Speaker 2: But also, I don't know, man, I don't know what
- 49:22Speaker 2: I'm gonna do with this one.
- 49:23Speaker 3: I'm gonna try and take a stand if I'm going
- 49:26Speaker 3: with Physiev or I'm gonna just gonna kind of fifty
- 49:30Speaker 3: to fifty it.
- 49:32Speaker 2: Man. I don't know, man.
- 49:33Speaker 3: I think it's a tough fight, but something tells me
- 49:35Speaker 3: that Phisiev just survives that first round, and I think
- 49:38Speaker 3: after that the live line just keeps climbing and climbing
- 49:41Speaker 3: and climbing, and then he puts them way at some point.
- 49:44Speaker 1: It's a phenomenal fight. I mean, it's a coin flip
- 49:46Speaker 1: for a reason. I do agree with you in the sense,
- 49:48Speaker 1: if I am watching this fight live, which I hope
- 49:50Speaker 1: I am. Regardless of where I am, I want to
- 49:53Speaker 1: pull it up. But ideally i'd be in front of
- 49:56Speaker 1: my TV so I can have DraftKings Sportsbook at other
- 49:58Speaker 1: live odds on my phone, because if I do start
- 50:01Speaker 1: seeing Torres slow down at the end, Iron one Phazi
- 50:03Speaker 1: pick it up, Like I do agree with you. The
- 50:05Speaker 1: longer the fight goes, it most definitely benefits pha Ze,
- 50:09Speaker 1: So I will be looking for a live bet that way.
- 50:11Speaker 1: Pre flop, though I'm picking Torres, he's two hundred cheaper.
- 50:13Speaker 1: Any physiv team can be Torres and leave two hundred
- 50:16Speaker 1: plus on the table. With all that being said, though,
- 50:19Speaker 1: if especially if the Lion keeps going to tours and
- 50:21Speaker 1: he's like minus one thirty plus one ten, there's a
- 50:25Speaker 1: chance if it's like fifty five percent Tours and thirty
- 50:27Speaker 1: five percent Phyz. Again, I think I probably would too
- 50:31Speaker 1: dramatic on the odds or in the ownership. But if
- 50:34Speaker 1: I'm not, then Physie's the better play at thirty five
- 50:36Speaker 1: percent in my opinion. So this fight is similar to
- 50:39Speaker 1: the Abous and Michael mikey O fight. What you project
- 50:42Speaker 1: both guys that I think kind of determines where you
- 50:45Speaker 1: should land. If it's relatively close, I'm definitely team Torres.
- 50:49Speaker 1: But if it's not and the odds keep going and
- 50:52Speaker 1: the ownership keeps widening. Maybe Phyzive is the putter play.
- 50:55Speaker 1: Then at two hundred more, I expect to have either
- 50:59Speaker 1: similar ownership or more torres. But again, my tours lineups
- 51:02Speaker 1: can easily leave two hundred plus as a way to
- 51:04Speaker 1: get different in this one man. Nine am Eastern start time,
- 51:09Speaker 1: that means six over here. I love some early violence.
- 51:12Speaker 1: Have the rest of the day to do whatever you want,
- 51:14Speaker 1: hoping to have a little more cheese in your pocket
- 51:17Speaker 1: when it is all said and done. We still got
- 51:19Speaker 1: MLB going, we got PGA showdowns, NASCAR on Sundays feels
- 51:23Speaker 1: like a boring time. The World Cup. If you're in
- 51:26Speaker 1: the discord, people are talking some soccer in there. There's
- 51:29Speaker 1: always money to be made though, and next thing you know,
- 51:31Speaker 1: you blink, NFL will be back and I cannot wait
- 51:34Speaker 1: for that. But we still got a little bit. I'm
- 51:36Speaker 1: excited for this card on Saturday. Make sure to get
- 51:38Speaker 1: those lineups in on Friday night or early Saturday morning.
- 51:42Speaker 1: Final thoughts for you, Big Marley, always good talking fights.
- 51:46Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean looking forward to some coffee and fights
- 51:48Speaker 3: in the morning. I think that's a great way to
- 51:50Speaker 3: start the day and then hit the gym afterwards. Hopefully
- 51:53Speaker 3: with some more money in the pocket, like you said.
- 51:56Speaker 3: And then the card after that, Man, we got Max
- 51:58Speaker 3: Holloway Connor McGregor. So I always love Fight Week. That's
- 52:03Speaker 3: gonna be a good one as well. Yeah, I need
- 52:05Speaker 3: I need some more money in the bank for these
- 52:07Speaker 3: bestball teams.
- 52:08Speaker 2: But I'm addicted to drafted. Just keep drafting on all
- 52:12Speaker 2: the sites.
- 52:12Speaker 3: I told myself last year, I'm gonna wait until closer
- 52:15Speaker 3: to the.
- 52:15Speaker 2: Season, you know what I mean.
- 52:17Speaker 3: I've been drafting for over a month, so I just
- 52:18Speaker 3: gotta I just gotta keep loading my bank account up
- 52:21Speaker 3: or my uh my Drafters account, Underdog all that shit. Dude,
- 52:25Speaker 3: I'm on all of them, so hopefully I can bag
- 52:27Speaker 3: this one and add to those.
- 52:29Speaker 1: I saw you, good left everbody listening ship it. I
- 52:32Speaker 1: saw you in one of my Drafters drafts. I'm like
- 52:35Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty. I'm like one hundred and fifty
- 52:37Speaker 1: down myself, but I have a busy summer coming up,
- 52:40Speaker 1: and that kind of burnt me out. I do all
- 52:41Speaker 1: slow drafts right now. I think I have only two left,
- 52:44Speaker 1: and I really might be done for the summer. If
- 52:46Speaker 1: I'm not, I kind of gotta fire them up now.
- 52:48Speaker 1: Because August will be busy for me and I don't
- 52:51Speaker 1: see myself being able to do too many late. So yeah,
- 52:54Speaker 1: I saw you keep up grinding. I love it. I'm
- 52:56Speaker 1: at the point I'm almost burnt out this year already,
- 52:59Speaker 1: so hopefully I got a shipper sitting right now on
- 53:02Speaker 1: one of the three sites. But yeah, we also do
- 53:04Speaker 1: have an NFL Best Well Discord channel in there. If
- 53:07Speaker 1: you are in our discord you can ask any questions
- 53:10Speaker 1: if you do want to do that. Good luck everybody,
- 53:13Speaker 1: and make sure to get your lineups in, be safe,
- 53:15Speaker 1: enjoy your weekend for Big Marley untitled Tound. Good Luck, Peace,