Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Draft Recap + Stanley Cup Playoffs Update

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NFL Draft Recap + Stanley Cup Playoffs Update · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast, part of the Action
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Network and proudly presented by BET three six five, the
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: world's favorite sports book brand. I am Chad Millman, Chief
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined as
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: I am for every episode where we are live on YouTube,
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: live on AMP, so you can send your questions in.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I love the interaction we got from listeners last week
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: before the draft. People asking questions on YouTube, people asking
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: questions on app. The chats are open, send them in.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: I am joined by my bff, my companion, my compadre
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: professional better from Hawaii. As we speak, mister Sime and Hunter.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Hello so wy then hello lot Chat. What a weekend
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: for Philadelphia sports.
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: Becrouss the draft, James Harden won US a playoff game,
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: and Boston has choked away everything. It's just if you
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: hate Northeast sports, it's a good time.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: I hate New York number one.
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: I definitely hate New York the most New York teams.
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: But Boston's right there. Boston. The Tom Brady curse is
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: alive and well, no championships is twenty eighteen. Let's keep
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: that streak going.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Well, look, you're bringing up the Bruins and the Celtics. Obviously,
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: the Celtics were recording this on Tuesday. Choked last night
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: against the Joel and bed Less Sixers watched the game
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: was a great game James Harden forty five, including the
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: Daggers game winning three at the end of the game
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: over Horford and of course the Bruins. We're going to
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: talk about the NHL with Michael Leeboff, our hockey betting analyst,
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: host of Line Change, the Action Network hockey betting podcast Dude.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Back to back choke jobs at TD Garden by.
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: Boston teams so good.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: You know what's interesting? Tell me if you feel this,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Like obviously, I'm from Chicago and grew up hating the Knicks.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Grew up, you know, moved to New York in the
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: nineties when the Bulls Knicks rivalry was at at zenith.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: And the problem is, I find Jalen Brunson and Josh
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Hart to be so likable as players, and I want
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: to root for them, and so I don't hate the
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: Knicks as much as I used to.
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: It's because you're not on Twitter anymore.
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: If you go on Twitter after a Knicks win, Chad,
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: that will be cured so quick. These fans win one game,
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: it's as if they won the championship. So Knicks fans, Yes,
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: they have likable players, but their fans are still the worst.
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: They still think the world cares about the Knicks. I mean,
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: one of the dumbest things I saw was I mean
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: it might have been Stephen A. Smith, so I don't
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: want to judge it too hard, but it was him
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: saying that Jimmy Butler wasn't gona be able to show
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: up because the game was in the Garden.
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: As if that matters, right, It like blows my mind.
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: They're like, well, it's the mecca.
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: It's like the mecca of what good basketball in the eighties,
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: so it always correct.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: My people are like, well, I don't know.
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: If you can call the New York and play where
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: the Knicks play, it's a it's a different feeling in
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: that stadium. It's clearly not I think the heat dominated
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: that game one. So hopefully the Nicks get knocked down
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: round too, like they always do. Chat and we can
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: get back to you know, good NBA talking, said, I've
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: happen to talk about the New York Knicks all the time.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Well, look, the NBA right now is amazing and we're
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: gonna be talking about NBA in future podcasts, but we
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: are going to talk like I said about NHL today. Also,
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: we're gonna have to review the draft because the Eagles dominated.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Howie was playing chess when everybody else was playing checkers.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: How this guy ends up with this much talent in
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: the draft. We're definitely gonna talk about that with Brandon Anderson,
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: who was all over the draft and since then has
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: been all over what to do with the Rookie of
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: the Year for defense, Rookie of the Year for offense,
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: some season win totals, bets that he's already made based
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: on the draft. Amazing draft, Like the draft has gotten
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: so good. The fact that draft has drawn six million
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: viewers or more across the various networks. NBA games aren't
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: drawing that in the playoffs when you have the biggest
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: stars in the game plan. It's phenomenal reminder. The Favorites
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: Podcast is probably presented by BET three six five, the
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign Up with promo code action
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: to get BET three six fives exclusive sign up offer
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: bet one dollar on any game and get two hundred
• 4:41
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• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Offer is available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Gambling problem call or text one eight hundred gambler. Also,
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna say it again, you guys have heard us
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: talk about game Time every episode. The fastest growing ticket
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• 5:21
  Speaker 1: I can get into the Nicks, I can find tickets
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: still available for the next game that is happening mere
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: hours from now. Or by the way, I can go
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: to the Yankees game. I can get one hundred level
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  Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time app,
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  Speaker 1: and enter code favorites for twenty dollars off download game
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: time today, last minute tickets lows price guaranteed. Simon, we
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: were talking about the Bruins oak job in years past.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: One of the guests who has tickled you the most,
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: who has made you the happiest, has been our hockey analyst,
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: host of Line Change, the Action Network hockey betting podcast,
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Michael Leeboff. Leeboff, Let's get into it. Brother Bruins' best
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: season in hockey history. Losing the first round. They are
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: just losing the first round. They're up three to one
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: in the series. They lose in overtime in Game seven
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: at home. Put this in context for us.
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: First of all, it's really nice to see Simon and
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: his beautiful shiny glow from Hawaii. Aloha, Simon. Yeah, this
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: is what happens in hockey. Though, the kind of guffawing
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: after the series was kind of funny because if you
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: looked at the pre series odds, Florida was plus two
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: fifty to win. So if people were going to call
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: this one of the biggest all time upsets in sports history,
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: that would mean that we'd have to go back and
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: talk about the Arizona Coyotes. You know, when they're plus
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: two fifty every night, and they beat the Dallas Stars
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: on a random Tuesday in February. Be like, what was
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: that the biggest upset in sports history?
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: Too?
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: The Panthers are a good team, they won the President's
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: Trophy last year.
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it was.
• 7:21
  Speaker 4: It was a choke job more than I think, you know,
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: monumental upset and completely blew the bracket wide open. But
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: I think now that kind of news has come out
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: about the Bruins and the injuries that some of their
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: players were dealing with. Patrese Bergeron had a herniated disk
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: in his back. The goaltender Linis Almark was battling through
• 7:39
  Speaker 4: an injury too after his ves in a season. So
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: that's what ends up happening in the playoffs. It's just
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: like it's a war of attrition. And so I'm not, like,
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: you know, on the floor shocked. But it definitely was
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: amusing for a lot of people. My wife is a
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: Bruins fan, so it was not amusing for her. I
• 7:53
  Speaker 4: had to watch that game with her and be a
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: good husband and console her. She does not do after
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: the Islanders lose. In fact, to me, after the Islanders
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: got eliminated, I hate them. They ruined your life, you know,
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: if you're way too nice.
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: So they blew a three to one lead, and they
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: had a lead in Game six with a mint to go.
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: It was a joke.
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: It was a stunning comeback. But the upset pre series
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: upset was like like a random Tuesday night in April
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: when the Anaheim Ducks beat the Vegas Golden Knights.
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: Well, I love the shit on Boston. So which one
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: is worst?
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: The Flyers coming back down three to zero or them
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: choking this up three to one? The best NHL team ever?
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: I think it's this one. Yeah, you know, they did
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: rewrite the record books during the regular season, you know,
• 8:35
  Speaker 4: and that's now as you're if you're a Boston fan, like,
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: how do you look back on this this season with
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: like a smile on your face? Like that's pretty tough.
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: These all these players are going to go except awards
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: in a in a few weeks. The goaltender Lenaslmrko win
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: the VESNA. The coach Jim Montgomery is gonna win the
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: Coach of the Year, and like it's very reminiscent to
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: the to what the Tampa Bay Lightney did a couple
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: of seasons ago when they set the record and then
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: got swept by the Columbus Blue Jas in round one.
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: Stame Golie Bobrovski, Man, that's yeah, that is okay.
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: Your former former flyer.
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: I got yeah.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: I love what Simon gets, like, starts pulling out his
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: legit sports fandom when we're in non NFL times, like
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: when you're going deep on hockey. That's when I remember
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: what a sports fan you are.
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I a psycho. Chet, I'm a psycho.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: You're a total psycho. Michael Leboff, the host of Line Change,
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: the hockey betting podcast for the Action Network. I know
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: how much you hate the Toronto Maple Leafs. For those
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: who don't know John Taveres, who was a longtime Islander,
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: Mike Leboff, who lives for the Islanders, has season tickets
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: to the Islanders, really hates John Taveres for leaving the
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Islanders and going to his hometown team, the Toronto Maple Leafs.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: Now they have advanced for the first time since two
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: thousand and four, they're playing the Panthers. How do you
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: feel about the Maple Leafs? How will they handle the Panthers?
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: Oh? Yeah, I hate them obviously. I hate John Tavaras
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: and basically everything that the Maple Leiefs stand for. I
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: think the way Simon described Knicks and Knicks fans kind
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: of reminds me of Maple Leafs fans. It's like, they've
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: won one playoff series in two thousand and four despite
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: having more resources or as they say in Canada, resources
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: at their disposal than any other team, because they are
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: the richest team in the league and one playoff series win,
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: and yeah, it's a big deal. Like I know some
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: good Maple Leaf fans, and they deserve to be happy
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: that they want a playoff round for the first time
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: in their adult life. But it's being painted as this
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: like monumental underdog story when they have one of the
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: most talented teams in the league and they have more
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: money than anybody. They're able to pay like coaches and
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: analytics staff and all that stuff more than anybody else,
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: so they should be much better than they are. But
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: they act like they're the scrappy underdog story. But the
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: opposite is obviously true. And now, yeah, now they play
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: Florida and the Islanders have alliances with other fan bases,
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: the Montreal Canadians and New York Islanders, of course is
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: one of the most famous in and all sports. It's
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: very much like Fdr and Churchill and Joseph Stalin. I
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: would say, like, you know, we we'll get to our
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: ship later, but but like right now, we need to
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: we need to all unite to defeat this this common enemy.
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: And so right now the Florida Panthers are are very
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: much in that picture from from Yalta with me. I'll
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: be Fdr. Simon is of course British, so he could
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: be Winston Churchill and Florida Panthers Nation they'll be Stalin
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: here and we'll take care of what we need to
• 11:34
  Speaker 4: take care of later down the line, but right now
• 11:36
  Speaker 4: they need to defeat the bad guys.
• 11:39
  Speaker 5: The beautiful seaside town of Yata was the setting for
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: the latest and greatest confidence of the Big Three, The Kremlin,
• 11:46
  Speaker 5: God's March Past and true Red arm his style. After
• 11:49
  Speaker 5: being inspected by mister Chutchill and President.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Roosevelt, the enemy of your enemy is just.
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: Your friend exactly.
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: Now you of all the teams remaining, you have a
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: team that it's your favorite bet or your favorite long shot.
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: Left.
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: That's all the crack and are still twenty to one
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: to win the Cup, even though he just took down Colorado.
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: Is there any teams that stand out to you like that?
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: If you're gonna bit Seattle, I would just bet their
• 12:11
  Speaker 4: goalie Philip Grubauer to win the con smythe He's like
• 12:14
  Speaker 4: eighty to one, one hundred to one. You could probably
• 12:16
  Speaker 4: find out there because if they if they win the
• 12:19
  Speaker 4: Stanley Cup, it's because he's maintaining the level. He was
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: terrible for them for the first two seasons and all
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: of a sudden, as goalies do, just got really hot.
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: And if he keeps that level up for the next
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: few series and plays them to a very surprising Stanley Cup,
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: I think he'd rather be holding an eighty to one
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: ticket on him or a hundred to one ticket on
• 12:39
  Speaker 4: him rather than the twenty to one. I think that
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: the Oilers, just in their series in general against Vegas,
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: will have some value. Vegas looked good against Winnipeg, but
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: I think that was more about Winnipeg just being an
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: absolute mess. Their coach. Rick Bonus, former Islander coach from
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: nineteen ninety seven, fact about Bones he coached to win
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: with peg Jets in nineteen eighty nine for one season
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: and then recoat and now, as you know, traveled bounced
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: around the league and came full circle to them thirty
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: three years later, so you know, hats off to Rick,
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: but he completely pasted his star players in his postgame presser,
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: which if it was like an NBA thing, I think
• 13:21
  Speaker 4: people would still be talking about it even though it
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: was a week ago, because he just called them all
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: out and said that they were disgusting, which I felt
• 13:28
  Speaker 4: was great. But Winnipeg was a mess in that series,
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: so I think Vegas looked really good by default, and
• 13:35
  Speaker 4: Edmonton is just flying series favorite despite not having homemice advantage.
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: But they're they're pretty cheap favorite on the road in
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: these two games, and I like, I'll probably be betting
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: them with both and then going over to the East
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: the Panthers. Similarly, like if I would try to find
• 13:48
  Speaker 4: the biggest number you can on Matthew Kuchuk to win
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: the Consmith Award if and that's playoff MVP. Our producer
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: Matt Mitchell wanted me to remind me that people listening
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: might not know what the cons smythe Trophy means, but
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: it means playoff MVP. I think other sports just call
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: it playoff MVP, which tells you everything you need to
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: know about hockey. But yeah, Matthew could chuck. If they
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: go far, it's going to be because of him. I
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: think he's interesting. And then the Hurricanes and Devils, I
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: would just pick like a long shot series. Bet like
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: to lead this series in goal scorers. Step On Nason
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: for Carolina is interesting. He's twenty eight to one because
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: there's not gonna I don't think there's gonna be much
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: scoring in there, so it could take like three or
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: four and you could walk out of it there with
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: a pretty ticket in your pocket. But yeah, That's where
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: I'm sitting right now. But mostly I'm just praying to
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: God that the Panthers can beat the main beliefs.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: All right, leave off, there's a lot of hockey that
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: to be played. I know we got to watch the
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: Maple Leafs, but we're all going to root against them
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: with all of our heroes as part of the Alta
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: Conference Alliance, and uh, you know, God speed to all
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: of us.
• 14:52
  Speaker 5: A crime on confidence has resulted in many great decisions
• 14:55
  Speaker 5: fall the field shot.
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: God speed.
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: Hopefully we can stop them, because I just won't be
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: around anymore. Simon was talking about some random Pacific islands
• 15:04
  Speaker 4: before we be hopped on here, and I'll have to
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: pick one out for myself to go live on and
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: I never watch another second of sports again, Simon.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: One of my favorite memories of Leaboff on the podcast
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: is him sitting alone by a creek with his dog,
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: listening to something on his phone in a stranger's backyard
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: because he was so upset about the Islanders.
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: After the Islanders got eliminated this time around, I sat
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: in my car put on some Fleetwood Mac.
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: For a while.
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: It was pouring rain, so sounds like signs of growth.
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: You know, I'm not thinking about chumping into a freezing
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: cold lake anymore. It's just sitting in my car.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: Never change my greave Off. Thanks for coming on the
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: favorite podcast. Michael Leeboff, the host of Line Change, the
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: hockey betting podcast for the Action Network. We got to
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: move on. We got to get to the NFL Draft.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: We got to get to the NFL Draft. Brandon Anderson,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: who was all over it before the draft started and
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: then has been all over it since the draft started,
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: with just phenomenal insights. Brandon, you had an article that
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: came out in which you talked about Rookie of the Year, defense, offense,
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff. I want you to break
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: it down. But over the past couple of years, you've
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: written a lot about these awards. Give me your favorite
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: stat that indicates what could be leading signal into how
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: you should derive value from betting on offensive Rookie of
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: the Year.
• 16:38
  Speaker 6: Yeah, there's one go to stat here. It's the draft slot.
• 16:42
  Speaker 6: It's the guy that gets taken near the top of
• 16:44
  Speaker 6: the draft. I know it's kind of boring, but here's
• 16:45
  Speaker 6: the number. Last nineteen seasons, sixteen offensive rookie of the
• 16:50
  Speaker 6: year we're drafted in the first round. That's eighty four percent.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: But it's better.
• 16:54
  Speaker 6: Fifteen out of the nineteen were top twelve picks and
• 16:58
  Speaker 6: that's just offense. Remember some of those picks our defense too,
• 17:01
  Speaker 6: So we're basically narrowing the field down to like five, six,
• 17:04
  Speaker 6: seven dudes before the season ever started. It's opportunity. We
• 17:10
  Speaker 6: are saying, Hey, you're going to a bad team that
• 17:12
  Speaker 6: had a hyph draft pick, and we're going to have
• 17:14
  Speaker 6: opportunity for you to play right away.
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: And by the way, we want you to look good.
• 17:17
  Speaker 6: We're invested in you, so we're just going to keep
• 17:19
  Speaker 6: feeding you carries and opportunities, and that's really how Ricky
• 17:23
  Speaker 6: year usually goes.
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: That held last year as well.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: We got a lot to break down here, Fellas Simon.
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: We talked so much in the draft about Bryce Young,
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: not Bryce Young going number one and how that would
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: impact you. But then the draft, like in the last
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: few hours, got even crazier than it had in the
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: forty eight hours before that. Describe the inbound you were
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: getting and how you were managing the flow of information
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: to try to take advantage in the final hours before
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: the draft.
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we talked a little bit on the
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: show that it's it's a tougher year. A lot of
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: the teams up top were pretty tight lipped, you know,
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: like some of these organizations are really being smart about
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: not really leaking stuff, and other organizations don't even care.
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: I mean, I heard Alanta was taking Robinson.
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: Two weeks ago.
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: So that was one of those bets where it's like
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: I kept telling people take them top ten. We were like,
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: do you know something, and it's like, yeah, we know,
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: Atlanta has told everyone around they're gonna take him at
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: eight if he's there. So there's a couple of teams
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: like that, they'll leak it right away. There's other teams
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: that are really tight lips. So we did our show
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: eleven am Eastern, which was five am my time, and
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: I was getting text chat but nothing really concrete, right,
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: nothing that was really like telling me exactly what was
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: going to happen. Then, sure enough, at eleven thirty, I
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: text from a really smart scout that said Bryce Young
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: going one, Houston going QB at two, and I text
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: him right back way way what QB?
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: No response.
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: Not even five minutes later, I get another text from
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: a guy, Hey, Houston's going quarterback at two. I don't
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: think it's gonna be your guy though. My guy, as
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: Chad knows, is Anthony Richardson. So my first thought was like, okay,
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: it's not Anthony Richardson. That means there's two options. It's
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: either Will Levis or CJ.
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: Strout.
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: Now, little did I know half these teams that have
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: Will Levis even in their top fifteen, like that was
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: all smoke screens, that was all pure and media driven.
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: I didn't know that. I'MI like everyone else here where.
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: It's like, I think Will Levis is terrible. It doesn't
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: matter what I think if an NFL team loves him,
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: this kid's a top pick. So you know, I'm pretty sure.
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure. I tweeted it out. I tweeted out
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: that Houston was talking about taking a QBA two. CJ
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: was plus like four to fifty, plus four hundred. I'm
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: not saying just because of my tweet, the line started
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: to moving. But not even hour later, CJ was minus
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: four hundred to be the first quarterback taken. So this
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: was an hour before the draft started. We saw that
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: smart money came in. They got they got the same
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: news I did. By the time the draft started, I
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: think CJ was up to minus two thousand, and then
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: you know, Bryce Seung went one. All of a sudden,
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: he was up to minus forty thousand CJ. So that
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: was one of those that they were keeping a tight lip,
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: but it did leak. He got a nice penny down
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: on a chat. But it was one of those where
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: I really I couldn't help that. I lost a lot
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: of money. Bryce Shung, I'm not gonna lie. So unfortunately
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: the books they limit. Again, I all the messages I get,
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: people were saying, like, what do you know? I try
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: not to shoot on these mock drafters so hard because
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: it's literally what they do for a living. But Mel Kiper,
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: a guy who's no one's more tuned in right than
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: Mel Kuiper.
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: This guy literally lives for mocks. It's all he does.
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: He had one pick right, people, it was Bryce Young.
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: That was the only thing he got right in his
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: entire mock. Todd McShay another guy all locked in. He
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: got four picks right, including Bryce Schung in the first round.
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: Right. So that's why I try to tell people every year.
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: It's like, I hate it.
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: It's it's brutal because I'm trying to tell people to
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: think outside the box and they're just like, well this
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: everyone's mock is saying that number two they're going Will Anderson.
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: So I would say that was the toughest part of
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: the draft chat.
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: I'm trying to tell people that a quarterback was going
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: at two, and I had to deal with an hour
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: people saying, who the hell are you? What the hell
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: do you know? There's nothing a game there. I just
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: put it out there because I told you, Chad, if
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: I ever get info, I'll put it out there. Like
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: if I get good info that I trust, I'll always
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: put out there, just because I think people realize at
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: this point, if I send you out a number, I've
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: already bet it, Like I already had my runners at
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: the books. I bet that number for fifteen minutes before
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: I put out there that I thought the QB was
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: going to two. So yes, I'm going to make my
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: profit off it, but I'll also give out the best
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: of the number to the people once I get it.
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: So that was a fun draft, Chad. All the movement,
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: I mean, we have plenty of time to talk about
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: all of it. Houston one of the worst run organizations
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: in all of football, and I think anyone would have
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: a brand could realize that you're trading up a first
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: round pick to get a d N They're idiots, Chad.
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: So that was one of those drafts that was really fun.
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: And it's fun where if you're a nerd like me
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: and you have a draft board and you have the
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: numbers back and everything, it's like CJ Trout for the
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: Houston smart pick, trading back up an unprotected first round
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: pick on a team that is projected to be the
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: number two pick next year. Chad, It's oh, it makes
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: you lose your damn mind. So I came with your
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: Andocon's take on it, just because I see he's got
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: him for Defensive Rookie of the Year. I love the idea,
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: but he's probably like me where it's just like Houston,
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: what the hell are we doing? You guys were making
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: the right moves and then you kind of screwed up Arizona.
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: To me, I don't know, Brandon has win in the draft.
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: I think Arizona won this year's draft. It's either them
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: or I know it's kind of a homer pick to say,
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: the Bears with Chad, but I love what the Bears
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: did too, But Arizona to me, setting up for the future.
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: Who knows that they're gonna do with Kyler Murray. But
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: right now, if they could get the one to two
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: pick next year, holy shit, Chad, that is such a
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: haul for what they gave up. So a really really
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: fun draft this year, and it's what one of the
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: highest ratings we've ever had for a draft. It's just
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: it's not gonna change. It's gonna keep getting crazier and
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: crazer as the years ago. Along Chat, So I do
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: I love the.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: Draft, Brandon, give us your take, give us a breakdown here.
• 22:52
  Speaker 6: Yeah, but I think Simon, I think you nailed the
• 22:54
  Speaker 6: Houston thing. I was flabbergasted at that trade. And it's
• 22:58
  Speaker 6: not about Will Anderson and it's not about CJ. Strott.
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: I love both of.
• 23:02
  Speaker 6: Them, absolutely want to add these guys. Actually think Houston
• 23:06
  Speaker 6: will I think they're both floor razers. I think Houston's
• 23:09
  Speaker 6: going to be better this year, in part because they
• 23:11
  Speaker 6: know we have their first or third round pick next year,
• 23:14
  Speaker 6: so there's no reason to tank. They're just going to
• 23:15
  Speaker 6: go try to win. You know, Demiko o'rians wants to
• 23:18
  Speaker 6: establish them winning culture now in Stroud, I thought was
• 23:21
  Speaker 6: the highest floor quarterback in the draft. Will Anderson, I
• 23:24
  Speaker 6: think most people, a lot of people thought was the
• 23:26
  Speaker 6: top defender. Good players, no arguments about them being worth
• 23:29
  Speaker 6: a draft pick. But man, you trade your whole basically
• 23:33
  Speaker 6: your next year's draft and a bunch of stuff this
• 23:35
  Speaker 6: year to move up for a DM like you basically
• 23:38
  Speaker 6: got to be Aaron Donald, to be to be that
• 23:41
  Speaker 6: valuable of a defender, to give everything that way. So
• 23:46
  Speaker 6: sneaky too. That Arizona, you know they got the new GM,
• 23:49
  Speaker 6: all of their scouting was still last the old crew,
• 23:53
  Speaker 6: you know, like it's I think Arizona was like, you
• 23:55
  Speaker 6: know what, let's just punt as much of this as
• 23:58
  Speaker 6: we can into the future, and let's get my guys in,
• 24:01
  Speaker 6: get the scouting in, get my team in, let's have
• 24:04
  Speaker 6: a whole year to get ready for this in what
• 24:05
  Speaker 6: most people think will be a better draft. And of
• 24:08
  Speaker 6: course we got Caleb Williams. We should be available. Arizona
• 24:11
  Speaker 6: now has two really good lottery tickets and they may
• 24:14
  Speaker 6: well end up. I don't think they'll be first and second,
• 24:16
  Speaker 6: because again, Houston isn't going to have any incentive to lose,
• 24:20
  Speaker 6: but Arizona sure is. I already took a look at
• 24:23
  Speaker 6: that Arizona under for next year. At five and a half,
• 24:27
  Speaker 6: Arizona is a race on its own to the bottom,
• 24:29
  Speaker 6: I think. So they definitely looked like the favorite to
• 24:32
  Speaker 6: take go number one. Chicago had a hard time with
• 24:36
  Speaker 6: Chicago only because we'll get to the Eagles. But man,
• 24:40
  Speaker 6: the Bears had the number one pick, made a trade down,
• 24:44
  Speaker 6: fine decision. They got the deal, you know, weeks before,
• 24:48
  Speaker 6: many weeks before the draft. And then the guy that
• 24:50
  Speaker 6: people were thinking, well, maybe Jalen Carter, could he be
• 24:53
  Speaker 6: the number one pick? And who I think maybe is
• 24:55
  Speaker 6: the most talented player in the draft falls into their
• 24:58
  Speaker 6: lap right there.
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: He's just right there.
• 25:00
  Speaker 6: At number nine. You got all the stuff out of
• 25:03
  Speaker 6: the trade and Jalen Carter and then they gave him away.
• 25:07
  Speaker 6: And look, it's hard. It's hard being on this side.
• 25:09
  Speaker 6: I have less information, of course than you need the evaluators,
• 25:12
  Speaker 6: and there's you know, off field stuff with him. There's
• 25:15
  Speaker 6: a lot of reasons why you maybe do or don't
• 25:17
  Speaker 6: want him. But I thought the Eagles, who were the
• 25:21
  Speaker 6: most talented team, the talented roster in the NFL, they
• 25:25
  Speaker 6: got the most talented player in the draft, and they
• 25:27
  Speaker 6: paid a fourth round pick to move up one spot
• 25:29
  Speaker 6: for him. They got Nolan Smith at the end of
• 25:32
  Speaker 6: the first round that a lot of mock drafts had
• 25:35
  Speaker 6: going at that pick, a number ten. So we're basically
• 25:39
  Speaker 6: we've all watched college football the last couple of years,
• 25:42
  Speaker 6: and Georgia has this historically great defense that is just
• 25:46
  Speaker 6: dominating everyone in Philadelphi. He's like, all right, cool, we'll
• 25:49
  Speaker 6: just draft them all of them. Let's have all the
• 25:51
  Speaker 6: Georgia guys. They got the corner later, they literally have
• 25:55
  Speaker 6: like four guys off of the defensive front now, And
• 25:58
  Speaker 6: I thought Eagles had a huge draft and definitely our
• 26:02
  Speaker 6: team that was just going to keep building on what
• 26:04
  Speaker 6: they're already doing.
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: Well.
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: All right, Brandon, you mentioned looking at the Cardinals under Simon.
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: You and I were on did a taping for Green
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: Dot Daily that'll be on at three o'clock today, Action
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: Network HQ on YouTube preview for people. Simon you first
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: a futures bet you've made based on I would call
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: it acquisition season movement that included free agency in the draft.
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I try to not better right after the
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: draft just because I think, like most people, e motions
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: are running high. But this one I couldn't pass on,
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: just because I thought the number would be moving. And
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: that's the Bengals of the under eleven and a half.
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: I thought the number would move as soon as lamar
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: Re signed. I thought that number would drop to eleven,
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: maybe ten and a half.
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: It just hasn't.
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: The public loves the Bengals. They're a really fun story.
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: Then the draft actually did happen. I thought Pittsburgh got
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: a great draft. I mean, to me, they answered a
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: lot of problems have across that team. They've they've addressed
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: those issues. To me through the draft and then you
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: look at the Browns, we expect them to better. So
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: Lamar coming back, Brown's being better. Pittsburgh improving eleven and
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: a half is very, very rich for a Bengals team
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: that had a lot of good breaks last year. Right,
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: they weren't the best thing in their division. The Ravens
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: were clearly gonna win that divisionuntil Lamar went down. Then
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: they were able to catch up to them. Yes, Joe
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: Burrow is incredible. They have an incredible team, but they
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: have a lot of stuff coming up right now where
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: they're about to pay Joe Burrow. So I agree with
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: people this is probably their last real year to make
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: a run. But it's such a tough division. We've seen
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: it time to time again. Then North is just a
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: brutally tough division. I can't see them getting to eleven
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: wins chat. That's just really rich. So the fact that
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: it's eleven and a half, I love that. Under I
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: know it's up to minus one twenty in most books.
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: Now i'd still take it. I'd take it down at
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: ten and a half. To me, that's where it should
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: be now that division settled in Now there is no
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: easy game for them, right, they were first in their
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: division means we're going to play a first play schedule. Now,
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: their division is much much better than it was last year.
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: No Watson sitting out, there's no Kenny Picker rookie quarterback,
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: there's no Lamar being hurt for half the season. It's
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: it's really really tough to see them getting back to
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: that number in just such a tough division. So to me,
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: that was the first bet I made after the draft.
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: I'm here, you know, I hear multiple people talk about
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: it's too early to be betting these kind of things.
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: That's a number i'd have to bet now because I
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: do think it's going to drop. I think most pros
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: are in a bett. So to me grabbing eleven and
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: a half, I know it's early, people, but that's a good,
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: good little undertotal to bet right now at this point.
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: Of the year.
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: Well, Brandon, your one of your favorite bets is a
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: compliment and probably impacts what Simon is talking about. So
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: give that one away.
• 28:39
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I like the Ravens over Our sponsor bet three
• 28:42
  Speaker 6: six five right now has the Ravens team total at
• 28:44
  Speaker 6: eight and a half. Now you're gonna pay the juice
• 28:46
  Speaker 6: it's minus one sixty. But are you kidding me? Eight
• 28:49
  Speaker 6: and a half that like that's a five hundred season.
• 28:52
  Speaker 6: Have we watched the Ravens For the last fifteen years?
• 28:55
  Speaker 6: John Harbaugh's team has won eight or more games fourteen
• 28:58
  Speaker 6: out of fifteen seasons. So by default the floor is
• 29:02
  Speaker 6: we need one win for the rest of the season.
• 29:04
  Speaker 6: And by the way, a bunch of those years we'll
• 29:07
  Speaker 6: only have sixteen games, so that's another game he could
• 29:09
  Speaker 6: have won and maybe gets the extra one. So nine
• 29:12
  Speaker 6: or more wins eleven of those seasons, ten or more
• 29:14
  Speaker 6: and nine of the seasons out of fifteen. Look, Lamar
• 29:17
  Speaker 6: Jackson is back, Rashat Bateman should be healthy. They signed
• 29:20
  Speaker 6: Odell Beckham junior Jay Flowers was on like every mock draft.
• 29:24
  Speaker 6: He's the guy that fit Baltimore's scheme perfectly. They've got
• 29:28
  Speaker 6: i think the best one to two tight end punch
• 29:30
  Speaker 6: in the league, Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely and Todd
• 29:33
  Speaker 6: Monkin the new offensive coordinator. I'm excited to see what
• 29:36
  Speaker 6: can he do. He's had some high flying offenses, and
• 29:40
  Speaker 6: I gotta be honest, I was just kind of getting
• 29:41
  Speaker 6: sick of the old Lamar Jackson offense doing everything, So
• 29:45
  Speaker 6: I'm excited to see what they do. Roquan Smith, we
• 29:47
  Speaker 6: got a full year of him there, and Marcus Williams
• 29:50
  Speaker 6: at safety. I just feel like I still know if
• 29:53
  Speaker 6: I trust the Ravens in the playoffs, but in the
• 29:55
  Speaker 6: regular season, the formula has proven they're gonna keep winning games.
• 29:59
  Speaker 6: Eight and a half is a crazy line to me.
• 30:01
  Speaker 6: Nine and a half has some books. I still like
• 30:03
  Speaker 6: that as well, but it's hard for me to see
• 30:06
  Speaker 6: a world where they don't get to double digit wins. Look,
• 30:08
  Speaker 6: Tyler Hunley got five starts last year. They still hit
• 30:11
  Speaker 6: ten wins. They still got there. Sorry for the Tyler
• 30:14
  Speaker 6: Huntley slander. The man is a pro bowler after all.
• 30:18
  Speaker 6: But look, even the fact that they have Huntley is
• 30:20
  Speaker 6: valuable because if and when Lamar does miss a little time,
• 30:24
  Speaker 6: bring in your pro bowler and you're still going to
• 30:26
  Speaker 6: keep on rolling like they have. So I like the
• 30:28
  Speaker 6: Ravens over. I like the Eagles over. I mentioned them
• 30:31
  Speaker 6: as well. Just two very high floor, proven teams. You
• 30:36
  Speaker 6: got coaching, you got the trenches, you got defense, special teams.
• 30:41
  Speaker 6: All those things just make for very stable teams. And
• 30:44
  Speaker 6: I'm willing to pay the price now because the floor
• 30:47
  Speaker 6: is just so so safe with both of them.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: All right, So what's interesting is Simon, you mentioned the Bengals.
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: You touched on the Steelers, Brandon, you mentioned the Ravensteelers.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: Right now, the Steelers over plus eight and a half
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: plus one hundred at bed three six five. We love
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: betting the Steelers and their win totals that Tomlin I
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: can't I can't remember, Matt Mitchell. Can you tell me
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: what did the Steelers finish last year? But I'm pretty
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: sure in.
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: Last year seven and a half, so you hit the over.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: Yes, right, they had eight wins last year, so Mike
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: Tomlin has never finished below five hundred or in this
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: case since the seventeen game season, below eight wins. So
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: they're at eight and a half with Kenny Pickett at
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: a full season. Huge huge fan of Kenny Pickett, Kenny Baller,
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: and they had a really good draft, like eight and
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: a half at plus one hundred. I don't know how
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: you're not betting that. Another one that I think we
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: should point out Jacksonville Jaguars ten and a half at
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: bet three six five plus one on the over, Simon,
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: give me a Jags opinion? And why would it be
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: plus money to bet the Jags over ten and a
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: half wins, knowing they're in a division with Tennessee and
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: a combination of Ryan Tannehillard will Levis the Colts and
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: a combination of Anthony Richardson or Gardner Minshew and the
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: Texans and a rookie quarterback and a team who may
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: be better but is still really an experience with a
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: new coach.
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: I'll say this all the top.
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: I'm too close to it where any pro is going
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: to take this under it, And I just can't do
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: it with the Jaguars.
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: I love the Jaguars.
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: I mean and Chat were all in on the Jags
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: last year. They were by far my biggest hit for
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: divisional bets last year. And Calvin Ridley's joining this team now,
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: like they shouldn't be better.
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: Everything about should be better.
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: So it's one of those where it sucks like I
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: want to take this under Chat, so damn bad.
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: I just can't do it. Like I don't see where
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: the regression's coming from.
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: I thought last year they had all those growing pains, right,
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: they started out really well.
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: I think they're two and one to start the year.
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: They came up to the Philly they lost that game
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: to the Eagles during a real bad rains to him,
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: and they just went on this real bad tails and
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: of shit, they just sucked for about a month and
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: a half. I lost a ton of money and they
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: figured it out. Ducks steered the ship. Yeah, we got
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: some help from Tennessee literally land an egg toward the
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: end of the year last year.
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: But that's what you wanted a young team.
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: You want them to steer the ship right, figure it out,
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: make the playoffs, win their division. That's a huge stepping
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: stone for especially a young team like this. So I
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: want to tell people to take the under. I just
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: can't do it. To me, this is a good, good over,
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: Like I got them right there at that number. This
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: is they swar a number by the books. I have
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: them at ten wins. I got to see this schedule.
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: I'm sure I could get them up to eleven, but
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: this is exactly where I have them. So I want
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: to say I lean towards the under. It's like a
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: ninety nine percent chance I'm gonna take their over. I
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: just I love this team. I love the coaching staff,
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: I love what they're building there. So Chad, you nailed
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: them to have that division. But there's just so much
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: the love with this Jacksonville team.
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: Simon, we're instituting a new label, a new theory, a
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: new tag. We're gon we're gonna call it the Howie
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: Roseman Bed. Where you see something, don't overthink it, don't
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: get cute, make the obvious call. He's got Jalen Carter
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: sitting there, the opportunity to trade up to get him.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: He's got Nolan Smith sitting there. He's got all these
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: talented guys that teams are walking away from because they
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: haven't put in the infrastructure to be able to support
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: a guy who's coming back from bad injury, a guy
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: who's got off the field problems, but a locker room
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: that is really, really strong and contains people that this
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: guy has played with before who can vouch for his character.
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: Like, that's why I just want to say, that's why
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: I thought it was smart that Bear's passed him.
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: I don't think the Bears had the infrastructure for him.
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: You know what, you know what's interesting? A uh be
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: with me, be my be my how We Roseman Buddy
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: and Matt Mitche can you please confirm via slack or
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: voice that we will have a Howie Roseman better the week.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: It's so obvious, it makes so much sense. Let's not
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: overthink it. It's too good to be true, because it
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: is true. Because we are not going to be the
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: people that get too smart. We're just going to be
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: the people who make the right call and play chess
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: when it doesn't require anything more than that.
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: Love it sounds.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: Great, okay, long text Chane with the Chicago folks during
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: the draft, we decided that we were glad the Bears
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: traded out of the position to have to make the
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: choice on Jalen Carter because at the end of the day,
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: we got to protect justin field more than anything, and
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: I don't want these guys to be in a position
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: where it's a hard call drafting a guy who could
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: be a character issue and need to anchor the defense
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: both literally and figuratively when he's not ready to do that.
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: The Bears don't have the locker room make to port
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: this kind of risk. Whereas offensively, you just got to
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: protect justin fields. It's all that matters in the NFL.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: Nothing else is going to matter. You can have the
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: best defense in the world. If you're not protecting justin fields,
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: you might as well as be starting over so couldn't
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: agree more with you on that. Here's a question that
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: came in from one of our listeners. All things be equal,
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: when is the optimal time to bet an NFL future
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: at the open? Is it pre draft? Is it training camp?
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: Immediately post draft? Simon, you started to touch on this,
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: so let Brandon weigh in first. Here, when is your
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: favorite time or optimal time to bet an NFL future?
• 36:45
  Speaker 6: I mean, I think it's just whenever the number is
• 36:47
  Speaker 6: right right. The optimal time is just whenever I get
• 36:50
  Speaker 6: the price that I want it. And I think, to
• 36:53
  Speaker 6: put that in perspective, most of the time, if I'm
• 36:57
  Speaker 6: betting an NFL future right now in May, and it's
• 37:01
  Speaker 6: going to have to wait to cash for over half
• 37:03
  Speaker 6: a year, most of the time, I am not looking
• 37:06
  Speaker 6: to bet to me favorites right now. I'm looking to
• 37:09
  Speaker 6: bet a long shot. Because when I bet a future,
• 37:12
  Speaker 6: of the idea is give me the number that I
• 37:14
  Speaker 6: can't get later on. This is the number, this is
• 37:17
  Speaker 6: the value A plus two thousand and four thousand, or
• 37:20
  Speaker 6: you know, it doesn't have to be that. If it's
• 37:21
  Speaker 6: a division better something, we probably won't get too long
• 37:23
  Speaker 6: of those numbers. But give me the number that I
• 37:26
  Speaker 6: can't get later on. How do I know, Well, that's
• 37:29
  Speaker 6: where you have to do your work and look ahead.
• 37:30
  Speaker 6: If it's in the season, give me the number that
• 37:32
  Speaker 6: I can bet week four because hm, Week five, six,
• 37:35
  Speaker 6: and seven pretty soft schedule. This team's about to go
• 37:38
  Speaker 6: on a little bit of a run here. Give me
• 37:40
  Speaker 6: the price now. I can't get this price a month
• 37:42
  Speaker 6: from now if my ticket is right. So I think
• 37:45
  Speaker 6: it depends if I'm betting. Somebody asks me on Twitter,
• 37:50
  Speaker 6: I really like the Eagles and the forty nine ers
• 37:52
  Speaker 6: in the in the NFC.
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: I think the NFC is weak.
• 37:54
  Speaker 6: I think those are the top two teams. I can
• 37:56
  Speaker 6: bet both of them right now, and I think basically
• 37:59
  Speaker 6: a lot in what would be effectively be something like
• 38:02
  Speaker 6: a minus two hundred doing the NFC.
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: What do you think.
• 38:06
  Speaker 6: I like the process, I like the idea. I think
• 38:08
  Speaker 6: the Eagles and Niners absolutely are the top two teams
• 38:10
  Speaker 6: in the NFC. However, one year ago, right now, who
• 38:14
  Speaker 6: would I have thought was the top two teams in
• 38:15
  Speaker 6: the NFC. Probably like the Packers and the Buccaneers, not
• 38:20
  Speaker 6: the two teams that came to the end of the season.
• 38:22
  Speaker 6: It's a long year. There's a lot of injuries, there's
• 38:25
  Speaker 6: a lot that changes, So why am I going to
• 38:27
  Speaker 6: lock in on the two favorites at the short number
• 38:30
  Speaker 6: right now? You've got to play the numbers we can
• 38:32
  Speaker 6: get them. There's a really good chance I can just
• 38:34
  Speaker 6: get that Eagles ticket or that Niners ticket during the year.
• 38:37
  Speaker 6: I can probably get a better price after a couple
• 38:39
  Speaker 6: game losing streak, or after a big Cowboys win or
• 38:42
  Speaker 6: something like that. So I think, to me, it's the
• 38:46
  Speaker 6: further out you are, the more time you have to
• 38:48
  Speaker 6: be patient. You have to run and get that ticket in.
• 38:51
  Speaker 6: Get the ticket in if you can't get a better
• 38:53
  Speaker 6: number later of My offensive Rookie of the Year is
• 38:56
  Speaker 6: a choice for that. But otherwise I think you're playing
• 38:58
  Speaker 6: the calendar and kind of playing where are you expecting
• 39:00
  Speaker 6: us to go?
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: Simon, Yeah, I'm one of those where it's like, if
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna lock my mone up for a year, I
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: want to get crazy long shut out. So last year
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: we talked about it. My first bet I made as
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: soon as just landed. My first bet was a Jaguars
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: a one hundred and fifty to one. This year was
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: the Bears a one hundred to one. It's just I
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: like to bet teams people perceive to be the worst
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: teams that have a first or second year quarterback with
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: a ton of money, and like, it's literally no secret people.
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: I do it every year and we always talk about it.
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: This is how you make these really nice plays when
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: you hedge out. We had the Bengals three years ago,
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: we had the Jaguars last year. I think the Bears
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: will be that team this year of a team that's
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: up and coming, a ton of draft capital, a ton
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: of money to spend, and then they do that all right.
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: They spend the money, they make the good draft picks,
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: and they put you in a position that you're just
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: gonna hedge out. So do I actually think the Bears
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: going to Super Bowl this year? Hell no, the odds
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: of that are so slim. But do I think they
• 39:53
  Speaker 3: can win their division and then get a home game
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: in the first round, and you know, maybe then they
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: get another home game because the team gets upset. That's
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: what you're looking for. You're looking for positions to hedge
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: out of. So I'm right there with Brandon. It's like,
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: if I'm gonna be tie my money up all off season,
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: I need big odds. I'm not taking any ten to
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: ones we talked about last year, Chad. I literally gave
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: out the Chiefs at eleven toh one the week before
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: the season started. You would have got worse odds if
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: you had bet it at any other point during the
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: whole offseason. But by the time this season got kicked off,
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: the Denver hype was at its highest level. The Chargers
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: hype was at the highest level. That's when you get
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: some good value on these high picks. So if you
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: liked the Eagles after this draft, you missed the boat.
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: People have been betting at all night the Eagles won
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: the draft, people came and they bet that. I think
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: it was at plus nine hundred. Now it's downd to
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: eight to fifty eight hundred of most books for them
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: to win it all you missed the number. So to me,
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: the high high ones like that just don't do it. People, wait, wait,
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: wait on the high high odds, because again I don't
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: hate it that your betting the Eagles at eight to
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: one to win the Super Bowl. It's just better to
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: have one hundred to one or eighty to one ticket
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: on the Bears. All during the off season. It is
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: the tire money up on Eagles. Where the Eagles. Who
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: knows what can happen in the regular season. If Dallas
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: wins that division, aren't we gonna get better odds and
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: the Eagles come playoff time.
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: So to me, that's why you don't really tie up
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: that money. Now at this point, people.
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: All right, whip around time h one name each offensive
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year, Defensive Rookie of the year, Simon,
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: give me your one name for each.
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: Sure I went Anthony Richardson for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: I just I just love the spotty landed and I
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: love the Colts. I know he's got Minshew ahead of him,
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: which I think that's why we're getting such good odds
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: on him.
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: But the fact that Jonathan Taylor should bounce.
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: Back if there's such a down year and he has
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: Pittman on the outside, that's the best win now spot
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: for any rookie quarterback I can think of. So to me,
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: I like that odds. And then for defensive Rookie of
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: the Year. I know it's kind of boring, but I
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: just love Jalen carter Man. If this kick can come
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: in with the right mindset, if the Eagles make him
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: a go to player.
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: His upside is out of this world.
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: Like I don't know if anyone watches tape, but it's
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: one of those where if your team drafts a guy,
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: all you do draft players just watch never amount of
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: film on a guy. And I just can't get over
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: holland talent, how curly talented he is. Already knew he
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: was the best player in the draft. I had him
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: as my number one player, but holy shit, man, j
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: Dalen Carter with that defense, I just love the position
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: he's in, So to me, he's got great upside. I'm
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: not in love with that as much as I am
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: with the Richardson one. The Richardson one makes more sense,
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: but again it's it's a tough, tough class. But there's
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: just a lot of guys are at the top of
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: the defensive side that could easily win this award.
• 42:25
  Speaker 6: Brandon Yeah, Offensive Rookie of the Year. I love Bjeon Robinson.
• 42:30
  Speaker 6: I bet him the night of the draft. I looked
• 42:32
  Speaker 6: for the odds the moment that the pickup made we
• 42:34
  Speaker 6: knew it was coming. But here are some things that
• 42:36
  Speaker 6: googled when Jon Robinson officially went to the Falcons. Hey, Google,
• 42:40
  Speaker 6: what's the rookie rushing record as a rookie ever led
• 42:43
  Speaker 6: the league in rushing yards? Like these are things I
• 42:46
  Speaker 6: think long shots, but I think there are things that
• 42:48
  Speaker 6: could be in play. Arthur Smith is the Derrick Henry guy.
• 42:51
  Speaker 6: Arthur Smith takes dudes off the street and turns him
• 42:54
  Speaker 6: into five yards per carry players. So Tyler Aljier Cordero Patterson,
• 42:58
  Speaker 6: I'm a Vikings fan.
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: Guys.
• 43:00
  Speaker 6: He was a failed receiver from a decade ago and
• 43:01
  Speaker 6: now he's just apparently like a good NFL running back.
• 43:04
  Speaker 6: Jon Robinson is awesome, and he's going to get three
• 43:07
  Speaker 6: hun plus touches and then gets the fifteen hundred plus
• 43:10
  Speaker 6: yards probably double digit touchdowns. He's going to be a
• 43:12
  Speaker 6: feature in that offense. Richardson probably my second pick there,
• 43:16
  Speaker 6: but I still love Bijon. It was plus four to
• 43:19
  Speaker 6: fifty draft night. I still see some plus three fifties
• 43:21
  Speaker 6: out there. To me, this is a Polo bon Caro
• 43:24
  Speaker 6: NBA type guy where it just he's going to be
• 43:26
  Speaker 6: I think the clear favorite as we go forward fantasy football.
• 43:30
  Speaker 6: He's a first round pick and not near the end
• 43:32
  Speaker 6: of the round either. He's just going to be a
• 43:34
  Speaker 6: workhorse right away. Defensively, my pick here is boring, but
• 43:38
  Speaker 6: it's because it needs to be. Every defensive rookie of
• 43:41
  Speaker 6: the Year this century has been a top thirty nine pick,
• 43:43
  Speaker 6: every single one of them. Twenty out of twenty three
• 43:46
  Speaker 6: first round picks, nineteen of them top fifteen picks since
• 43:50
  Speaker 6: twenty ten, five were top three picks. That's where I'm going.
• 43:54
  Speaker 6: Only one defender in the top three. Give me Will Anderson.
• 43:57
  Speaker 6: I see a plus five hundred out there. I loved
• 44:00
  Speaker 6: Jalen Carter. I think he will have a big impact,
• 44:02
  Speaker 6: but voters like stats, voters like sacks, and Will Anderson
• 44:07
  Speaker 6: is going to get the sacks. He had. Favorites win
• 44:10
  Speaker 6: this awards. Seven of the last eleven defensive Rookie of
• 44:13
  Speaker 6: the Year started the year plus nine hundred or shorter.
• 44:16
  Speaker 6: So I think Anderson fits the profile really well. He's
• 44:19
  Speaker 6: gonna get plenty of playing time, Timiko Ryan's gonna scheme
• 44:22
  Speaker 6: him up and get him some good looks. So look, guys,
• 44:26
  Speaker 6: I'm normally the long shot guy, but I'm on the
• 44:28
  Speaker 6: favorites today. I guess I'm taking the favorites. So I
• 44:31
  Speaker 6: got the favorite each spot. I just think they're the
• 44:33
  Speaker 6: right pick. And Rookie of the Year. We know that
• 44:36
  Speaker 6: when you go near the top of the draft, it's
• 44:38
  Speaker 6: because you're the best player and you're gonna get a
• 44:40
  Speaker 6: lot of chances, and betting the favorites for these awards
• 44:42
  Speaker 6: is the right way to go.
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: And I'll say this my favorite thing I didn't happen
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: at the draft.
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: There was a ton of drama going on by the
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: scenes of Atlanta was going to trade for Tannehill.
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: That was a real thing.
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: Tennessee was in gift Tannehill too Atlanta and they're gonna
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: move up to that eighth spot. They couldn't make an
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: they couldn't work out the money. SA thinking happen Kyler
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: Murray and Atlanta. Apparently there was a deal in place
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: for the Cardinals and Atlanta. They're gonna send Kyler Murray
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: to it to Atlanta for draft picks and they're gonna
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: take some money on It didn't work out, obviously, but
• 45:11
  Speaker 3: I love that Atlanta's trying to.
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: Do stuff here. Right.
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: They have all the weapons there, they just don't have
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: the quarterback. Who knows what could happen in the middle
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: of the season, right with all everything going on. I'll
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: keep down on people's radar. Atlanta is a sleepy team
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: this year, Atlanta, and if they get a Tannehill, they
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: get a Kyler Murray, that's.
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: Definitely a team in that division. I could easily steal
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: that division. So that's a team We're gonna be talking
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: about a lot this year. I'm sure, Chad.
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: Well, we do every year because we're nothing if we're
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: not in Atlanta. Te podcast Brandon Anderson. Great stuff on
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: the draft, great stuff post draft, great stuff on the NBA.
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: You can hear them freaking everywhere all over the Action Network.
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorite Podcast is proudly presented by
• 45:49
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• 46:10
  Speaker 1: This has been the Favorites podcast part of the Action Network.
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Molman. My co host and BFF is
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, our producer extraordinaire on the audio side, is
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, Barbara Alberts on the video side keeping us
• 46:30
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• 46:50
  Speaker 1: Love You. Action Network reminds you please go on responsibly.
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
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• 47:07
  Speaker 1: Gambler