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پیش‌نمایش نقدینگی در سال ۱۴۰۵ · اکو ایران | روند

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: In the end of the year, the return rate reached
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: 53% in the year of 1404. But since then, the
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: stock has not spread from the money circles and with
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: the attention of the higher interest rates that have been
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: softened since the beginning of the year, we are waiting
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: for this figure to hit the record again. Now, how
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: much has the return rate increased so far? Stay with
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: us with this part of the program. In terms of economy,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: inflation and inflation, when inflation falls on the stock market,
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: the price of clothes increases. What exactly do we mean
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: by inflation? The currency is the same money that is
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: divided into two parts, the real and the legal. One
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: part is in the form of cash, and the other
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: part is in the form of cash accounts, so that
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: we can trade it more easily. In total, this cash
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: and cash is in the hands of people and cash accounts.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: They say that money is a part of the currency,
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: and it goes into high-end accounts, and it is calculated,
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: and they say it is similar to money. We said
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: that the exchange rate is in the form of interest
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: and interest rate near the banks According to the information
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: that the exchange banks have published in the form of
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: their assets, the remaining 3% at the end of 1404
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: reached about 10,500. We are aware that this amount of
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: 3% includes the types of 3% in the exchange banks
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: and non-exchange banks such as national banks, military, agricultural, housing
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: and a few smaller banks are not included When we
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: calculate these three levels, we reach 15,500, which is equivalent
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: to the inflation of the entire country. Now, if we
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: compare the trend of these three levels with the inflation
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: of the currency, we see that all three of them
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: have crossed the same path. We want to use this
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: topic to estimate the amount of criticism so that we
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: can show the behavior of these three branches more Let's
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: see how the growth rate of the month has changed
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: in the last few years Well, as you can see,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: the monthly growth of these three branches has moved in
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: a specific direction, especially in the last few months of
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: the year 1404 Now, in order to see the growth
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: of their monthly income and the future of these stocks better,
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: we calculated the average movement of 6 months According to
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: this example, the monthly income of the remaining 3 levels
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: of the stock market, the rate of money and the
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: interest rate of a certain type Although here we can
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: see that in some time periods, such as the beginning
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: of the year 414, we had a considerable increase If
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: you subtract these big numbers It is easier to understand
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: the coexistence of these three factors Well, so far we
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: have shown that we can get a estimate of the
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: amount of balance of money from the balance sheet that
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: appears in the financial statements of the exchange banks. To
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: do this, we must first calculate the balance of money
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: to the balance sheet of the balance sheet. This ratio
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: is important because we can use its average to predict
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: the amount of balance of money The average of 1,401
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: to 1,404 was 29 hundredths But as you can see,
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: it has decreased compared to last year and has reached
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: the average of 1.17 hundredths Now the same percentage is
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: equal to 1.34 hundredths in terms of return on the
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: amount of money With the consideration that the remaining payments
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: have been extended to the month of March, we want
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: to see how much the amount of money and return
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: has reached The remaining 3% of this bank has reached 13,233
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: interest rates, which has increased by 73% compared to the
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: 1404 rate According to our estimates, if the return on
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: the same ratio of 3400 to the amount of money raised,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: the probability is that the amount reached more than 20,000
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: interest rates at the end of this month and increased
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: by more than 70% compared to the amount of last
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: year The figures that we pointed out in this report
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: are a estimate of what has happened in the currency
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: of the entire country and with 1% error we can
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: see how far the currency has reached. The figures that
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: probably fell from the path of money and for the
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: sake of the budget, which in this era of economic
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: war and economic crisis, have become more and more severe
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: and have become more and more economic. We have to
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: wait for the official documents of the central bank to
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: be published and see how much the currency has risen. However,
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: the number of points related to the point-to-point rotation in
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: the center of the Iranian currency was 89% and this
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: shows that the number that has been set for the
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: exchange rate is not far from reality.