Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Why Wall Street Is ALL IN on 2025 Stock Rally + Stock Market News 09 June 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Why Wall Street Is ALL IN on 2025 Stock Rally + Stock Market News 09 June 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix, and a very happy Monday morning to you.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: It is Monday, isn't it?
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: I think at least I think so, boss, and I want to spend the next 15 minutes or so walking you through the four big questions that Wall Street's answered today.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: The first is is bad economic news actually priced in?
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: The second is why inflation is going to increase this year significantly and how you can profit from that very easily potentially.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Plus.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: They are big and, yes, beautiful tax breaks.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Well for some.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: And again, we can profit from that.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: I also want to leave you with the events you need to know about this week, like literally screen sortable information.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: So if you think you're going to get some value out of that, then you know what to do.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: I'll share my screen with you here.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: We're, of course, joined by Winston, who's a little tired because he just chased one of his golden vitriol friends around the park, hence he's giving us the twitching nose treatment there.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: But, yeah, this is what we're going to cover the next couple of minutes.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: If you think you're going to get some value out of this, put a v in the chat for value inflation it'll increase, the big, beautiful tax breaks for some and how we're going to get some of that money ourselves and the big events to know this week.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: So shall we, shall we, shall we move into it?
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Am I seeing some v's?
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Am I seeing some v's in here?
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing the first Vs here from Richard Mike's smashing it, and all the Vs are coming in.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: It's coming in.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: There's a slight lag, it seems, on the chat here this morning.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: This is the first piece of data and this is data that I saw a Goldman Sachs banker walking down the road.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: I sent Winston onto him.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: He grabbed his suitcase no, not quite, but something like that and this is Goldman Sachs' research, which is intended for the institutional clients, not for just you and me.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: You know the sort of simple people out there, but I think we deserve to know it.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Don't you think we deserve the same information as the buggers on Wall Street?
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Do you think we deserve the same information?
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Put one in the chat and um.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Let me explain this because, of course, a banker made this, so he wanted to look very smart in front of his banker friends and therefore he made it a little bit complicated.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Really, what you need to know is that there is hard data now.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: That's hard economic data, so it's stuff like gdp growth, consumer spending, inflation data.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: You know hard data that's actually measurable.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: And then the only other line you need to really pay attention to is that blue line here, which is the uh, good old s&p 500.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: And what they're saying to us is and this is a smart observation, don't get that many smart observations on wall street, but we've got this one that, while the economic data is getting worse, you can see that right, it's coming down.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: It's coming down Like I'm going to highlight the green line here.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: You get the idea it's coming down.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: What has the market done at the same time?
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Well, the market has shrugged it off and the market's already priced in an expectation of worse economic data, icon data.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Even If I could spell, you know I would have made it in life.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: I probably still have a job.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: So what does that really mean?
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Well, look, the expectation is that the economy will soften in the second half of the years, as in, you're going to get higher unemployment and slower economic growth.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Because we haven't seen any benefit yet from tax cuts.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: They'll take a while to come through.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: And secondly, any of that investment money allegedly pouring in and the jobs being created and so on, we haven't seen them yet, right?
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Because all that stuff is a promise but it hasn't actually happened yet.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: So you might see that, if it happens in 2026, but probably not in 2025.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: And that's why a lot of people are expecting that sort of recession-y type environment.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: But the market is going to love it.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Because we've already priced it in.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: That's the proof, basically.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: So when everyone's screaming, oh my God, look at the economic data, we're going to know what to do.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, they'll know what to do.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you what to do in a second.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Does that make some sense to you?
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Does that sort of land for you?
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: And then, if you look a little bit more short term and for you guys in my mentee community, you've just got the notes right For the week we just posted it.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: I'll try to do it a little earlier next week.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: It's just got a little bit lost in the posting process.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Normally I do it about 12 hours sooner.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: They're saying single stocks were net bought for a fifth straight week and was 77% of all the buying.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: And what's that telling you?
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: That is telling you that buying the index is probably a bad idea, at least if you think the guys on board should know what to do, whereas buying single stocks and being selective about the sectors is probably a good idea, and that's precisely what I've been shouting from the rooftops for months, years probably but specifically in this environment here, and one of the sectors that I'm also on the top of my buy list for the week is aerospace and defense.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: Put out another video on that a little bit later today for everybody.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Like, you give away like 99% of everything we do here for free, don't we Winston?
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Yes, winston is very much into the whole free tennis balls for everybody, so is that some value for you?
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: Is that some value for you?
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: If it is, you know, pop another V in the chat, just want to make sure it lands.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: And you then might want to ask well, what stocks do I buy?
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Literally some loon, sorry, but yeah, you came into the chat here this morning and you said I've got 90K.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: What stock should I buy?
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: I need to make 20% in a week, right?
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: You wrote that and I was hoping somebody would talk him off the ledge.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Notes aren't posted yet, says Mark.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Okay, I have instructed and pushed and nudged and kicked just to make sure they're posted.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: They should be up there in a couple of minutes.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: But yeah, we'll do it a bit sooner next time.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: There was a slight communication breakdown on my front here.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: But you don't ever want to buy something just because somebody says to you oh, that's a good stock, right?
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: If you saw my list this morning, we found like 80 stocks that look good.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: You don't need to buy them or you can obviously be selective.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: If you've already got five stocks in defense, you're not going to add stock six to it, are you?
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: You're going to buy something in a different sector.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: But what I'm saying is the opportunities are so enormous if you know how to look and almost nobody does.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: But the guys on Wall Street do.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: And what's the proof?
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: They're making billions of dollars every quarter trading right, they're buying stocks and then they let them go up and then they sell them.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: It's a process they've been doing for like 150 years and yet we're still here going, oh, let's talk to them about it.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: You know that sort of you know crack cocaine addict type approach.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: So I'd love for you to move away from the crack cocaine kind of thing.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Give me another hit.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Why don't I just learn the rules and then I can, on the weekend, very calmly and casually look for a couple of buys for the week if I've got some cash flowing in that particular week and then you can buy them, and then you know when to buy them and you know when to sell them, and the whole thing is automated.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: It takes almost no time whatsoever and you can still live your life exactly as you normally do, and you can be as chilled as this guy here.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: That's really my goal for you.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: So if that's something that resonates with you, does that resonate with anybody?
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Put an R in the chat.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: If it resonates with anybody, then simply go here.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Felixfranzorg slash, get free, and I believe it'll help you get free.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Seriously, it'll take you 15 minutes.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Now you've already listened to me for eight, so 15 minutes will go by in a flash because it's just information-dense, free magic that will help you tremendously if you want to make more money, if you want to retire, if you don't want to work for some other guy and make him rich for the rest of your life, right?
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Okay, loving all the hours there, guys.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: So not all you got to do is actually take action on that.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: It's nice to kind of realize it, but most people, again, don't take action, right?
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: So next, golden nugget from goldman and sacks?
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Um, there is no, and in that actually it's just goldman sacks.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: They, they sold the and for profit.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: And they're saying look the current inflation levels, currently 2.5%, is going to go to 3.6% by year end.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Apparently, that's according to Ronnie Walker.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: You must work there, I presume, or it was just a joke on Johnny Walker, I don't know.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: So they're basically saying inflation is going to go up and it's going to go up quite significantly back up to there.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: So what's that going to do with mainstream media?
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: Well, you can just hear it.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: Cnn right, trump's inflation out of control.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: You know that kind of thing.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Well, apparently, protests in california are peaceful.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Anybody tuning in from la this morning?
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Have you set a waymo on fire yet, just for a you know sport this morning?
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: Apparently you could just have you set a Waymo on fire yet, just for a you know sport this morning.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Apparently, you could just call one and you can set it on fire.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: Sounds like a fun activity, doesn't it?
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Quicker than a bonfire, and they burn down to almost nothing.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: It's quite extraordinary actually.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: But anyway, we're a little distracted.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: So everyone's going to tell you freak out when the inflation kicks in.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: And it'll kick in, but it'll be when the inflation kicks in.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: And it'll kick in, but it'll be.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: What's Powell's favorite word from 2025?
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Transient.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: I really can't spell it, can I?
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: Transient?
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: People always think I must be smart because I make a lot of money in my stocks.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: It's just not a requirement, thankfully.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: So, transient All you need to be able to do is remember three things and know where to press a couple of buttons.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: As long as you know how to do that, then you can be as chilled as this little chap here.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: So what does it mean?
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: Look, inflation is going to go up.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: People are going to panic.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: What are they going to do?
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: They're going to sell stocks.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Stock prices are going to come down and in reality, we already know it.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: It's already priced in.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Wall Street isn't going to panic.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Wall Street's going to buy the good stocks.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: So this is going to be an opportunity that's going to come up, probably in the second half of this year and a bit more on the China-US trade talks today, in a moment.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: So, transitory, transitory, transitory.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: You see I can't copy, and that's literally what good investment is.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: It's copying the rules, the playbook of Wall Street.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: That's all it is.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: You're just copying.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: I do the same thing every single week and you know what it is glorious, isn't it?
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Winston says it's glorious too.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: It's the funnest like 60 minutes of my week, because I'm buying all these things and I just know it's going to make me money.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: And maybe you don't believe that.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's also okay, but I shared this with you guys in a video over the weekend, so I'll do it again.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: I don't normally share these things because I don't think it's helpful to say, oh, look how much money I made.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: This is just a stock portfolio that I have, which I imported here into Trade Vision, so you can see my May.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: And what do you see with my May?
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: You see mostly losses, right, all these red days they were all losses.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Like my God, felix is losing money all the time.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: He's a terrible investor.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: And then you see two big green days.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: You might be thinking, oh, he got lucky.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: So, yes, we realized $5,000 in profits on this portfolio, which is just 1.7%.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Sounds dreadful, right, the market did like 5%, but those are the realized gains, you see.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: So realized was 5,000.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Unrealized as of this morning, this is live is 42,000.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: So we actually made 47,000.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: So, given that 5,000 is 1.7%, we're up.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know how much are we up by?
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: 14, 15% or something like that, which is three times better than the market, right, which is pretty good.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: So why do we have so many losers?
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Because we have stops.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: So you can see all the losses we have here.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: You see all these small losses a couple of hundred bucks, a thousand dollars, a couple of small gains as well.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Again, they got stopped out.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Here is very small numbers, and that's the goal.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: And then we get some big numbers 45% up, or this one here, 80% up, but all the other ones, you see, they are very small numbers and that's really how you make money.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: You have small losses and you thank them for being small, and then you have some small wins and then you have some big wins and you can see we have quite a lot of big wins open still.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: Otherwise we wouldn't be up $42,000 in unrealized gains.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Now the problem is that most people, even if you get to the gains, they let them slip back to zero.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: We don't do that because we have automations up.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: We have stops up that protect us.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: That's what it's all about.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: You want to learn that?
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Go to felixfenceorg.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Actually, I'll put a link in the chat for you as well.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: I appreciate some of us struggle to write no judgment there because, as you can see, I've only just started to learn, so I'll pin it to the chat for you as well.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: So anyone's going to go and learn that Let me know.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: Actually, just say, put an L in the chat and just bugger off right now and learn, because it'll be a better use of your next 15 minutes.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: Now that we know that and actually here's the proof that the market doesn't care there is again data from Goldman Sachs.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: There is a five-year forward inflation expectation, essentially, and the expectation is that in five years inflation will be 2.2%.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: So people don't care on Wall Street about this tariff inflation because it'll be transitory.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: Big word there, right?
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing some L's there Aydin and Jay and Swati and Dave and Morty and Sean and Glenn Brilliant guys Keep doing it out exactly Literally.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: I'd like to see view numbers drop and I'd like to see people leave the chat to go and watch that.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: That would make me very happy.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: 3,000 people live here, 400 likes, which is a harsh crowd.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: But that's okay, I can handle it.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: As long as you guys go and learn, I'm happy.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing some more Ls there Charles and Bangani and everyone else, brilliant, my friends.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Thanks.