Latest / Brian Thomas / Congressman Warren Davidson joins Brian Thomas this morning
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Seven.
- 0:00Speaker 2: If I'm here fifty five k CD talk station, Brian
- 0:03Speaker 2: Thomas always pleased to have on the fifty five KARC
- 0:06Speaker 2: mornish and thank him for his willingness to talk about
- 0:08Speaker 2: important issues with my listening audience and me. Welcome back,
- 0:11Speaker 2: Congressman Warren Davidson.
- 0:14Speaker 1: Brian, it's an honor to be with you again. Thank
- 0:16Speaker 1: you well.
- 0:17Speaker 2: Without me diving into any particular provision that I scratching
- 0:20Speaker 2: my head over in this memorandum of understanding, which I
- 0:23Speaker 2: understand has been signed already, your reaction to it, it
- 0:27Speaker 2: sounds to me like it's rather lopsided in favor of
- 0:30Speaker 2: the Iranians and leaves me with a whole lot of
- 0:32Speaker 2: concerns along those lines. But I'm interested in hearing what
- 0:34Speaker 2: you have to say right out of the gate, Congressman Davidson.
- 0:38Speaker 1: Well, piece is better than war, so but at what cost? Right? Yeah?
- 0:43Speaker 1: We are we better off or worse off having done
- 0:47Speaker 1: this in the first place. And you know, it's been
- 0:50Speaker 1: interesting to see who's with President Trump on supporting peace
- 0:55Speaker 1: because they all wanted the war. You know, a lot
- 0:57Speaker 1: of these guys that were like Lindsey Graham, that were
- 1:00Speaker 1: cheering for war have been pretty tipid about the idea piece,
- 1:04Speaker 1: and I think jd. Vance struck the right tone through
- 1:07Speaker 1: the course of the week because you know, he's like, yeah, okay,
- 1:10Speaker 1: I've supported the president's actions to take out the i
- 1:13Speaker 1: its Hola and everything else, but you know, in order
- 1:17Speaker 1: to do what And if you look at the piece,
- 1:23Speaker 1: he's like, look, we don't trust Iran, their neighbors don't
- 1:25Speaker 1: trust Iran. Nothing changed about Like there's some now newfound
- 1:29Speaker 1: level of trust with Iran, right, but what Iran has
- 1:33Speaker 1: been crippled? The part that's not in the agreement is,
- 1:36Speaker 1: oh yeah, and Iran agreed that we're gonna essentially wipe
- 1:39Speaker 1: out their military, right, We're taking out their navy, We're
- 1:42Speaker 1: taking out a massive amount of their missile capability. Okay,
- 1:48Speaker 1: not everything. This isn't an unconditional surrender agreement. We didn't
- 1:52Speaker 1: fight a land war for years to be able to
- 1:54Speaker 1: occupy and control Iran. So for a series of air
- 1:59Speaker 1: strikes in a navy blockade, you know, we basically got
- 2:03Speaker 1: a ran to agree to things that they weren't agreeing
- 2:05Speaker 1: at to negotiating at a negotiating table. And you know,
- 2:10Speaker 1: not everything's done. There's sixty days where they're going to
- 2:12Speaker 1: try to finish the agreement, and so sort of picking
- 2:15Speaker 1: up where they left off before the United States basically
- 2:19Speaker 1: took out their top forty leaders with an air strike,
- 2:23Speaker 1: and before we put a blockade on the straight hoh
- 2:26Speaker 1: Home moves. So maximum pressure had crippled their economy and
- 2:29Speaker 1: caused massive inflation. You know, we're dealing with inflation in
- 2:31Speaker 1: our own economy. Caused massive inflation in the Iranian economy
- 2:36Speaker 1: and lots of scarcity. We once you put the blockade
- 2:39Speaker 1: on top of that, that's been on steroids. So the
- 2:42Speaker 1: downside of a blockade and even sanctions and all that,
- 2:46Speaker 1: it does cause problems for ordinary people. But to the
- 2:50Speaker 1: extent there's any resources, particularly in a dictatorship, those with
- 2:53Speaker 1: power and money wind up with the stuff right. And
- 2:58Speaker 1: there was a huge bit of anxiety from the existing
- 3:02Speaker 1: maximum pressure campaign. Just before the war started in February
- 3:06Speaker 1: twenty eight, people had protested and Iran killed thirty to
- 3:10Speaker 1: forty thousand of their own people. And so if you
- 3:14Speaker 1: think about this, if the British had done this in
- 3:19Speaker 1: seventeen seventy two to seventeen seventy six, you know, not
- 3:24Speaker 1: only would they have taken out thousands of supporters that
- 3:27Speaker 1: would have taken out Thomas Payne, Samuel Adams, John Adams,
- 3:31Speaker 1: John Hancock. You know all these people that were instrumental
- 3:35Speaker 1: in you know, George Washington. You take out George Washington,
- 3:39Speaker 1: what is the country without all these people that are
- 3:41Speaker 1: founding fathers. Those are the people that Iran killed in
- 3:45Speaker 1: the run up to this strike. So the millennium behind it,
- 3:49Speaker 1: you know, it hasn't been there internally to change things.
- 3:52Speaker 1: So I think this is a pretty good framework. And
- 3:55Speaker 1: if it doesn't work, you can always go back to
- 3:56Speaker 1: putting this on. So I think it gives the United
- 3:59Speaker 1: States maximum optionality, and it gives Iran something they haven't
- 4:03Speaker 1: been able to have even a hope of doing, which
- 4:06Speaker 1: is re engaging with their neighbors and re engaging with
- 4:10Speaker 1: the world economy. And I think everyone's right to be skeptical. Historically,
- 4:14Speaker 1: if Iran has money, they're going to buy weapons. Yeah,
- 4:18Speaker 1: and after they've bought some more weapons, if they have money,
- 4:22Speaker 1: they give it to Hamas and has Belah and other
- 4:24Speaker 1: proxy groups to buy more weapons. And what do they
- 4:27Speaker 1: do They attack their neighbors, especially Israel. So if that continues,
- 4:32Speaker 1: well you'll just see more of the same, whether formal
- 4:35Speaker 1: sixty day pause or however many days we make it.
- 4:38Speaker 2: Well, that's one of the puzzling elements of this. Lebanon
- 4:40Speaker 2: is specifically mentioned on a number of occasions, and of
- 4:43Speaker 2: course Lebanon has its own government, and yet it's controlled
- 4:46Speaker 2: by the terrorist entities. Now the terrorist entities has bought
- 4:49Speaker 2: not a signatory the agreement, neither is Israel, so I
- 4:52Speaker 2: don't view it as binding. Even though if the Hisbala
- 4:55Speaker 2: does something, we know it's at the behest of the Iranians.
- 4:57Speaker 2: But let's face it, it isn't Iran's specifically doing it.
- 5:01Speaker 2: So there's that's kind of a swirling thing. And in
- 5:03Speaker 2: so far as the thirty thousand civilians who were murdered
- 5:05Speaker 2: by the Iranian regime, going back to your earlier point,
- 5:08Speaker 2: this memory of understanding specifically states US and the in
- 5:11Speaker 2: Iran undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity
- 5:15Speaker 2: and to refrain from interfering with each other's internal affairs.
- 5:19Speaker 2: What does that mean in so far as Iran's treatment
- 5:21Speaker 2: of its own people, Are we going to do something
- 5:24Speaker 2: if they take to the streets and start murdering folks again,
- 5:26Speaker 2: is that going to be a deal breaker in the agreement.
- 5:29Speaker 2: I don't think anybody knows, and it's one of the
- 5:31Speaker 2: open questions that needs to be hammered out. But that
- 5:33Speaker 2: is a concern.
- 5:37Speaker 1: You're right on that one. And I think the problem,
- 5:39Speaker 1: as you mentioned, was Elebanon. You can tell President Trump
- 5:43Speaker 1: is very frustrated with netna who he's been pretty you know,
- 5:46Speaker 1: close to Netnahu over the years, but extremely frustrated. It's like, yeah,
- 5:50Speaker 1: he gets struck with two drums. That doesn't mean you
- 5:52Speaker 1: take down another apartment building in Beirut, you know. And
- 5:56Speaker 1: so that's been that's been the challenge. You know, I
- 5:59Speaker 1: think look post October seventh, twenty twenty three, or you know,
- 6:04Speaker 1: when Israel was attacked by Hamas and Gaza. Of course,
- 6:09Speaker 1: unconditional surrender for Hamas. Hamas is not going to be
- 6:12Speaker 1: part of any governing of anything. Is a right and
- 6:15Speaker 1: just positioned by Israel. And you know, immediately after that
- 6:19Speaker 1: you started taking rocket attacks in Israel from Hesbelah, which
- 6:24Speaker 1: you know, similar kind of group of people in the
- 6:27Speaker 1: north operating out Elebanon, and a lot of their headquarters
- 6:31Speaker 1: are in Barry. But let's say they are using some
- 6:34Speaker 1: of an apartment building where you know some leader for
- 6:38Speaker 1: that movement is in Beirut. Well that doesn't necessarily be
- 6:42Speaker 1: if you stack a team outside that that apartment and
- 6:46Speaker 1: take out those folks, that's one thing versus saying, well,
- 6:50Speaker 1: you get an eleven story apartment building, let's just collapse it.
- 6:53Speaker 1: That's the kind of collateral damage that really is undermining
- 6:56Speaker 1: support for Israel in their own cause. And I don't
- 6:59Speaker 1: know that Israel sees it that way because they're fixated
- 7:02Speaker 1: on stopping the threat to them. But outside of Israel,
- 7:06Speaker 1: I think you're talking to people that are very pro Israel.
- 7:08Speaker 1: They're like, yeah, help us, let us help you, all right,
- 7:11Speaker 1: stop doing that. It's not helping you. And I guess
- 7:15Speaker 1: President Trump's frustration there. It's a hard thing because look,
- 7:18Speaker 1: Israel's a sovereign country. They should have an inherent right
- 7:22Speaker 1: to self defense. And you know, to your point, Lebanon's
- 7:26Speaker 1: a sovereign country, and to the extent they have any sovereignty,
- 7:30Speaker 1: it's being undermined by Iran's proxy groups, so the Hezbolah.
- 7:34Speaker 1: So we didn't agree to it, not meddle in the
- 7:36Speaker 1: internal affairs of Lebanon. I would say from the agreement,
- 7:40Speaker 1: but it was interesting to kind of push pressure on
- 7:43Speaker 1: net Yahoo. President Trump even talked about Siria putting pressure
- 7:48Speaker 1: in Lebanon instead of it's and that highlights that you know,
- 7:52Speaker 1: Isis and the sort of Sunni aligned folks aren't friends
- 7:59Speaker 1: with the Range and the Shia people with hesblav So
- 8:02Speaker 1: there's their own sort of internal conflict among gull states
- 8:06Speaker 1: other than Israel.
- 8:07Speaker 2: Well, that is true, but as so far as Lebanon goes,
- 8:10Speaker 2: the first paragraph of this memorandum of understanding says, we
- 8:13Speaker 2: declare the immediate, permanent, permanent termination of military operations on
- 8:17Speaker 2: all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake from now on not
- 8:21Speaker 2: to initiate any war or military operation against each other,
- 8:24Speaker 2: again specifically mentioning Lebanon's sovereignty and the final deal. It
- 8:29Speaker 2: says we'll confirm the permanent termination of the war on
- 8:31Speaker 2: all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.
- 8:35Speaker 2: So it sounds to me like we will be prohibited
- 8:38Speaker 2: from dealing doing anything in Lebanon. Again, that is because
- 8:40Speaker 2: Israel isn't a signatory, they can do whatever the hell
- 8:42Speaker 2: they want, but I think Iran will view any action
- 8:46Speaker 2: by Israel as approved by or at the behest of
- 8:50Speaker 2: the United States, much in the same way that if
- 8:53Speaker 2: there are any Hesbala actions against Israel or anybody else,
- 8:55Speaker 2: we will view that as at the behest of the Iranians.
- 8:59Speaker 2: So we're using proxies to get missions done. Perhaps that
- 9:02Speaker 2: seems to me like it's going to be status quo.
- 9:06Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, I mean, as long as there's been Islam,
- 9:09Speaker 1: they've been the driver of the conflict with Israel. But
- 9:12Speaker 1: even pre Islam, you know, Israel's bit at war with
- 9:15Speaker 1: their neighbors. It's all of recorded human history, they've been there.
- 9:21Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of wisdom to me in saying,
- 9:24Speaker 1: let's take this peaceful window to realize we don't have
- 9:28Speaker 1: to insert ourselves into all the wars in all the places.
- 9:32Speaker 1: And historically, with respect Israel, Israel said just give us
- 9:37Speaker 1: weapons or sell us weapons, we'll fight our own wars.
- 9:41Speaker 1: This sort of shifted because they're like, Rian is a
- 9:44Speaker 1: big enough and powerful enough country. They're like, well, a
- 9:47Speaker 1: little fighting by you guys would be great. And you know, frankly,
- 9:50Speaker 1: we did a lot more fighting than Israel in this effort,
- 9:53Speaker 1: and we've led the negotiations and you are seeing a
- 9:56Speaker 1: rift between Israel's objectives and the United States objectives. I
- 10:00Speaker 1: think it's a fair consideration to say, if we're going
- 10:02Speaker 1: to sign anything that has a hope of enduring, you've
- 10:05Speaker 1: got to get all the parties to the war to
- 10:09Speaker 1: sign all a not a memorandum of understanding, but a
- 10:13Speaker 1: true treaty, a true agreement to work together in a
- 10:18Speaker 1: certain way going forward. And I think that's possible. But
- 10:22Speaker 1: it hasn't happened in history for any significant period of
- 10:25Speaker 1: time without a powerful force imposing peace on other people.
- 10:33Speaker 1: That's basically been the way. There's been some semblance of
- 10:36Speaker 1: peace as you've been one party or the other occupy
- 10:40Speaker 1: or an outside force like Rome occupy and impose conditions
- 10:45Speaker 1: of peace.
- 10:46Speaker 2: All right, we'll pause bring Congressman davids about a couple
- 10:48Speaker 2: of elements want to ask you about in this, notably
- 10:50Speaker 2: the future of the talk Station seven if you've have
- 10:56Speaker 2: Kecity Talks Station Bryan Thomas and Congress Warren Davidson going
- 10:59Speaker 2: through the memorandum of understanding sign between the United States
- 11:02Speaker 2: and Irani, and a lot of details need to be
- 11:03Speaker 2: ironed out in most of them. And Congressman Davidson. One
- 11:06Speaker 2: of the things that concerns me and others just read
- 11:09Speaker 2: read the agreement itself. First off, it's it's paragraph five.
- 11:13Speaker 2: They agree to immediately start getting doing whatever they need
- 11:17Speaker 2: to do to open up the strait of horror moves.
- 11:19Speaker 2: And then it says Iran will be conducting dialogue with
- 11:22Speaker 2: Oman and others to define the future administration and maritime
- 11:27Speaker 2: services in the strait, recognizing or in line with applicable
- 11:31Speaker 2: international law and sovereign rights of coastal state. So what
- 11:35Speaker 2: that suggests to me and many others who are looking
- 11:37Speaker 2: at it. Recognizing international law does not allow the charging
- 11:40Speaker 2: of tolls. Fees are a different thing. They can be
- 11:44Speaker 2: you can be required to pay fees if you get
- 11:46Speaker 2: services provided by one of these you know nations, And
- 11:50Speaker 2: they're again their sovereign rights. So if they provide maritime services,
- 11:55Speaker 2: navigation service, they're gonna get you. The boats are gonna
- 11:58Speaker 2: get charged. This is a new world order in terms
- 11:59Speaker 2: of traffic flowing through the golf because that never existed before.
- 12:03Speaker 2: Any concern over that or reaction over that.
- 12:05Speaker 1: Congressman, well, I'm encouraged. This is an idea that I
- 12:09Speaker 1: shared as a way to align interests of the Golf
- 12:14Speaker 1: States because they haven't been aligned. And frankly, it's an
- 12:18Speaker 1: advantage to the United States and aren't oil production. If
- 12:21Speaker 1: you want to charge an extra fee for your oil,
- 12:25Speaker 1: that puts a premium on your oil in a discount
- 12:28Speaker 1: to hours. So I think every oil producing country in
- 12:31Speaker 1: the world is like, yeah, charge away, buddy, make the
- 12:34Speaker 1: fees as high as you want, and we'll sell more
- 12:37Speaker 1: stuff from our own country. But in the meantime, you know,
- 12:41Speaker 1: if Iran's only way to participate in let's say they
- 12:45Speaker 1: do charge some fee for service, A, there has to
- 12:48Speaker 1: be a service, and B if they want to keep
- 12:54Speaker 1: participating in that, well, they has to collaborate with their neighbors.
- 12:58Speaker 1: And so that gives all the neighbors in the game
- 13:00Speaker 1: to put leverage on Iran versus just complain about them
- 13:04Speaker 1: to the United States and try to get Iran in
- 13:05Speaker 1: the United States to do something about it. It's like, no,
- 13:07Speaker 1: you guys work together, and it gives Iran some sort
- 13:11Speaker 1: of path to cooperate with their neighbors. And they've got
- 13:16Speaker 1: a new government, so look, I think they're probably just
- 13:19Speaker 1: as radical and crazy as the previous government, and this
- 13:23Speaker 1: may not work but if it doesn't, what have you
- 13:26Speaker 1: lost for trying? Well?
- 13:27Speaker 2: And if people refuse to pay a fee, that's what
- 13:29Speaker 2: they want to call it. And the Iranians, I suppose,
- 13:32Speaker 2: have no other recourse but to start blowing stuff up again.
- 13:35Speaker 2: That would be a bad idea from my perspective, but that's.
- 13:39Speaker 1: But it would also be a clear cause for war.
- 13:42Speaker 2: Right yeah, yeah, yeah, bad idea for the Irani right.
- 13:46Speaker 1: Totally bad idea for Iran And it's like, yeah, you
- 13:48Speaker 1: want to walk away from this and start start violence again. Well,
- 13:52Speaker 1: now you've given a just cause for war to all
- 13:56Speaker 1: your neighbors. And if you look around the world, freedom
- 13:58Speaker 1: and navigation is one of the principles that I think
- 14:00Speaker 1: is important for us to preserve. And I think, you know,
- 14:03Speaker 1: we've historically been a naval power. We've helped create freedom
- 14:08Speaker 1: and navigation around the world and maintain it. And I
- 14:11Speaker 1: think it's not just in everyone's interest around the planet
- 14:15Speaker 1: to have freedom and navigation. It's especially in the United
- 14:17Speaker 1: States interest to have freedom and navigation. But I will say, look,
- 14:21Speaker 1: if they work together. Right now, you've got ships that
- 14:24Speaker 1: are trapped in the golf and they've been working their
- 14:27Speaker 1: way out, you know, it became public what was classified
- 14:31Speaker 1: as they were leading up to this negotiation, and part
- 14:34Speaker 1: of what put pressure on Iran is we were getting
- 14:36Speaker 1: ships through the Golf. We were getting Iranian oil for
- 14:39Speaker 1: free basically through the golf and getting these ships out,
- 14:44Speaker 1: and we were controlling the straight albeit at a administrate
- 14:49Speaker 1: because of the security concerns. And so once you've got
- 14:54Speaker 1: people that aren't there, and if you know the terms
- 14:56Speaker 1: and conditions are going there and it's going to cost
- 14:58Speaker 1: you this much, well then just become it's a business decision. Right,
- 15:01Speaker 1: I could buy a person gulf oil at this rate
- 15:03Speaker 1: with the fees and service and everything else, and it's great.
- 15:07Speaker 1: These poats are amazing, and let's do it, or you go, well,
- 15:12Speaker 1: you know, that's a pretty big premium to the market.
- 15:14Speaker 1: I think I'll just get my oil from Venezuela. And
- 15:18Speaker 1: the United States is continuing to build a different future
- 15:22Speaker 1: for Venezuela. And here's the other thing that future right
- 15:26Speaker 1: now looks to have solved the issue with the settlement
- 15:30Speaker 1: in yuan. Right they're back to settling in US dollars
- 15:34Speaker 1: at market rates, not below market rates. So China was
- 15:37Speaker 1: getting oil way below market prices because of the sanctions
- 15:41Speaker 1: regime the United States tad that put pressure on countries
- 15:44Speaker 1: like Venezuela and Iran. Well, we've got to sell our
- 15:47Speaker 1: oil somewhere. We don't really have an open market way
- 15:50Speaker 1: to do it. We can now sell it at full
- 15:53Speaker 1: market price by settling in dollars. So that helps the
- 15:57Speaker 1: ordinary people of Iran, of Venicel well, the people that
- 16:00Speaker 1: we want to help, despite the fact that they have
- 16:03Speaker 1: terrible leaders. So I think this gives you the hope
- 16:08Speaker 1: of creating a better future in those countries. And frankly,
- 16:12Speaker 1: it weakens China. They're not getting discanted oil and they're
- 16:15Speaker 1: not settling in yuan. They're back to settling in dollars.
- 16:19Speaker 2: Barnet real quick. I know we're out of time. Just trackers,
- 16:21Speaker 2: don't yell at me. I have to ask this the
- 16:23Speaker 2: three hundred billion dollars to rebuild, I don't know where
- 16:25Speaker 2: the money is coming from. Donald Trump said not a
- 16:27Speaker 2: single American tax payer dollar is going to do it.
- 16:29Speaker 2: But this agreement does release or does end sanctions. It
- 16:33Speaker 2: does free up money that the Iranians can use, apparently
- 16:36Speaker 2: because the memorandum does not discuss it for whatever purpose
- 16:39Speaker 2: they want. But the flip side is well, wait a second,
- 16:42Speaker 2: what about all the damage that the Iranians are responsible
- 16:44Speaker 2: for billions of dollars of damage to our aircraft, our
- 16:46Speaker 2: US bases, and all the allies that the Iranians bomb
- 16:50Speaker 2: throughout this. I guess they're not getting anything.
- 16:55Speaker 1: From us. Is we're in getting anything from us except
- 16:58Speaker 1: money that we froze. We froze because we have control
- 17:01Speaker 1: over the flow of money around the world, or at
- 17:03Speaker 1: least a lot of influence over it. It certainly not total control,
- 17:07Speaker 1: but a lot of influence over frozen assets, and so
- 17:10Speaker 1: releasing those frozen assets is the one thing we can
- 17:12Speaker 1: control for Iran. The idea that we would help facilitate
- 17:17Speaker 1: three hundred billion of investment in Iran. The unstated part
- 17:20Speaker 1: is is, well, if you're going to get that, you're
- 17:21Speaker 1: going to have some level of responsibility for helping your
- 17:25Speaker 1: neighbors that you blew up their stuff. And I think
- 17:28Speaker 1: that's why the sea is. Ultimately what they're going to
- 17:31Speaker 1: land on is they're going to recover the money for
- 17:35Speaker 1: one another off of the service. And I think that's
- 17:37Speaker 1: what they're going to probably do, is they're all going
- 17:39Speaker 1: to rebuild off of the fee that they charge through
- 17:42Speaker 1: the golf.
- 17:43Speaker 2: Clock is ticking, the sixty days has begun. I guess
- 17:45Speaker 2: we're going to find out whether these details can be
- 17:47Speaker 2: hammered out over the next sixty days. But it also
- 17:50Speaker 2: includes a provision by mutual agreement that sixty days can
- 17:52Speaker 2: be extended. And I'm not a betting man, but if
- 17:55Speaker 2: I was a betting man, Congressman Davidson, I would think
- 17:57Speaker 2: it's going to take longer than sixty you're closing, remarked
- 18:00Speaker 2: for we part company, Sir.
- 18:02Speaker 1: I'm sure there's already a market on Calshie and poly Market,
- 18:06Speaker 1: and you can go see what the odds are. But
- 18:08Speaker 1: I would get with you. I guess, without having looks
- 18:11Speaker 1: that the odds are, we will go beyond sixty days.
- 18:13Speaker 1: Fair enough,