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frontpage: thu sep 17 · frontpage

• 0:00
  Host 1: Imagine trying to steer a speeding car
• 0:02
  Host 1: by like only looking at the rearview mirror.
• 0:05
  Host 2: Yeah, that is not gonna end well.
• 0:07
  Host 1: Right. And meanwhile, someone else
• 0:09
  Host 1: is actively pouring rocket fuel straight into the engine block.
• 0:12
  Host 2: Just a total disaster waiting to happen.
• 0:15
  Host 1: Exactly. And else as Thursday, September 17th, 2026,
• 0:18
  Host 1: and looking at the front pages this morning,
• 0:20
  Host 1: that is exactly what the global economy feels like right now.
• 0:23
  Host 2: It really does. I mean the Federal Reserve
• 0:25
  Host 2: has just slammed their foot on the brakes,
• 0:28
  Host 2: but uh, they might not actually be the ones driving the car anymore.
• 0:31
  Host 1: No, they aren't. And it is honestly
• 0:33
  Host 1: a terrifying moment of realization for financial markets today.
• 0:36
  Host 2: Yeah. Because the biggest attempt to grab that steering wheel back
• 0:39
  Host 2: just happened.
• 0:40
  Host 1: Right. The Fed has officially raised interest rates
• 0:43
  Host 1: to a range of 3.75% to 4%.
• 0:45
  Host 2: Which is the first rate hike in three years.
• 0:47
  Host 1: Let's um let's unpack the reality of this
• 0:49
  Host 1: because the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh,
• 0:52
  Host 1: he didn't sugarcoat it at all.
• 0:54
  Host 2: No, he came out swinging.
• 0:56
  Host 1: Yeah. The vote was unanimous
• 0:58
  Host 1: and his tone was incredibly hawkish.
• 1:00
  Host 1: He flat out said, inflation is too high
• 1:03
  Host 1: and has been for too long.
• 1:05
  Host 2: And Wall Street took an immediate hit from that.
• 1:07
  Host 1: Yeah, the S&P and the Dow just slumped.
• 1:10
  Host 1: But the metric that really jumped out to me is the 10-year Treasury yield.
• 1:12
  Host 1: It settled above 5% for the first time since 2007.
• 1:16
  Host 2: Right, and for anyone listening on their morning commute,
• 1:18
  Host 2: that 5% figure might just sound like,
• 1:21
  Host 2: you know, abstract Wall Street math.
• 1:22
  Host 1: Yeah.
• 1:23
  Host 2: But it is actually the gravity of the financial world.
• 1:25
  Host 2: It's the benchmark that dictates everything else.
• 1:28
  Host 1: Wait, so how does it actually affect like regular people?
• 1:31
  Host 2: Well, when the 10-year yield hits 5%,
• 1:34
  Host 2: it means the cost of borrowing money to buy a house,
• 1:36
  Host 2: or to uh carry a balance on your credit card,
• 1:39
  Host 2: or even for a business to expand,
• 1:40
  Host 2: it all just got massively more expensive.
• 1:43
  Host 1: Wow.
• 1:44
  Host 2: It is this psychological and financial threshold
• 1:47
  Host 2: that literally changes consumer behavior overnight.
• 1:49
  Host 1: So they are pulling the one lever they have, right?
• 1:52
  Host 1: Making money more expensive to slow down demand.
• 1:54
  Host 2: Exactly. But as you look at the underlying data,
• 1:57
  Host 2: the Fed is fighting an enemy they can't actually control.
• 2:00
  Host 2: They're trying to cool down an engine,
• 2:02
  Host 2: but the fuel line is being manipulated by completely external forces.
• 2:05
  Host 1: Yeah, William Dudley, the former New York Fed President,
• 2:08
  Host 1: laid this mechanism out perfectly.
• 2:10
  Host 1: He said the Fed can crush domestic demand all they want,
• 2:13
  Host 1: but they can't, you know, print more fuel.
• 2:15
  Host 2: Right.
• 2:16
  Host 1: Dudley pointed out this massive disconnect.
• 2:19
  Host 1: Crude oil is sitting around $100 a barrel,
• 2:22
  Host 1: which is high, but theoretically manageable.
• 2:24
  Host 2: Okay.
• 2:25
  Host 1: But the diesel market is behaving as if oil is at $200 a barrel.
• 2:28
  Host 2: Okay wait, let's pause and break that down.
• 2:31
  Host 2: How does that $100 disconnect actually happen?
• 2:34
  Host 2: Because crude oil gets turned into diesel,
• 2:36
  Host 2: so why is there such a massive gap in how they're priced?
• 2:40
  Host 1: It all comes down to the physical logistics of refining.
• 2:42
  Host 2: Okay.
• 2:43
  Host 1: You have crude oil, the raw material, right?
• 2:46
  Host 1: But you need the industrial capacity to process it
• 2:48
  Host 1: into the high-octane diesel that powers,
• 2:51
  Host 1: well, global shipping, trucking, supply chains.
• 2:54
  Host 2: All this stuff that moves our goods.
• 2:56
  Host 1: Exactly. And that capacity is being heavily constrained
• 2:58
  Host 1: by geopolitics right now.
• 3:00
  Host 1: You have the ongoing war in Iran,
• 3:02
  Host 1: severely disrupting the Middle East.
• 3:04
  Host 1: But crucially, you have these continuous Ukrainian strikes
• 3:06
  Host 1: on Russian energy infrastructure.
• 3:08
  Host 2: And they aren't just hitting the oil wells, are they?
• 3:10
  Host 1: No. They are hitting the refineries.
• 3:13
  Host 1: They are systematically taking the processing plants offline.
• 3:16
  Host 2: Oh wow.
• 3:17
  Host 1: So the crude is there in the ground,
• 3:20
  Host 1: but the ability to turn it into usable diesel is just choking.
• 3:23
  Host 2: And the Washington Post is reporting this morning
• 3:26
  Host 2: that it poised to get significantly worse.
• 3:28
  Host 1: Yeah.
• 3:29
  Host 2: They're saying gas and diesel prices are prepping for another massive leap
• 3:32
  Host 2: because of physical damage to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline.
• 3:35
  Host 1: Right.
• 3:36
  Host 2: That's a 745-mile artery that was explicitly built
• 3:39
  Host 2: to be the safe alternative to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
• 3:42
  Host 1: The irony there is just staggering.
• 3:44
  Host 1: I mean, the Fed is trying to cool the economy,
• 3:47
  Host 1: but the literal fuel that runs the supply chain
• 3:50
  Host 1: is being bottlenecked by kinetic warfare.
• 3:52
  Host 2: Yeah.
• 3:53
  Host 1: And while Washington fights that macro battle,
• 3:55
  Host 1: the corporate world is just ruthlessly adapting to this high-friction environment.
• 3:58
  Host 2: Oh, totally. Like the Wall Street Journal notes
• 4:01
  Host 2: that ByteDance just reported a $120 billion revenue surge
• 4:04
  Host 2: for the first half of the year.
• 4:05
  Host 1: Wow. $120 billion.
• 4:07
  Host 2: Yeah. Companies that don't rely on physical shipping
• 4:09
  Host 2: are finding ways to just print money.
• 4:11
  Host 1: While the legacy financial institutions are out there
• 4:14
  Host 1: trying to build entirely new life rafts.
• 4:16
  Host 1: I mean, you've got BlackRock building these
• 4:18
  Host 1: highly customizable 401k funds
• 4:20
  Host 1: that mix traditional public stocks with private assets and annuities.
• 4:23
  Host 2: Right. Why are they doing that right now?
• 4:25
  Host 1: Well, because the traditional mix of stocks and bonds
• 4:28
  Host 1: is just too volatile when the Fed is hiking rates
• 4:30
  Host 1: and global supply chains are breaking down.
• 4:32
  Host 2: That makes sense.
• 4:33
  Host 1: Yeah, they're trying to offer everyday investors
• 4:36
  Host 1: the kind of hedging tools that billionaires use,
• 4:38
  Host 1: you know, blending in private assets
• 4:41
  Host 1: to buffer against this exact kind of inflation shock.
• 4:43
  Host 2: And speaking of corporate adaptation, look at ExxonMobil.
• 4:46
  Host 1: Oh yeah?
• 4:47
  Host 2: They, along with billionaire Harold Hamm, are nearing preliminary deals
• 4:50
  Host 2: to explore investments in Venezuelan oil fields.
• 4:52
  Host 1: Going into Venezuela? Wait, yeah, going into Venezuela.
• 4:54
  Host 1: The US has maintained massive sanctions there for years.
• 4:57
  Host 2: Exactly. That shows you just how desperate
• 4:59
  Host 2: the search for energy supply has become.
• 5:01
  Host 2: They are looking to cross geopolitical red lines
• 5:03
  Host 2: just to find untapped reserves.
• 5:05
  Host 1: They absolutely are. Which brings me back to the question,
• 5:07
  Host 1: how much control does the Fed actually have
• 5:09
  Host 1: when energy shocks and this massive tech boom
• 5:12
  Host 1: are just brute forcing their way through the economy?
• 5:15
  Host 2: The broader front-page reporting suggests...
• 5:17
  Host 2: Yeah. They have far less control than they want.
• 5:19
  Host 1: Yeah.
• 5:20
  Host 2: Because this energy shock isn't isolated to just economics.
• 5:22
  Host 2: It is physically reshaping global trade and alliances,
• 5:25
  Host 2: and it's being supercharged by technology.
• 5:27
  Host 1: Right. Look at how Iran is handling its borders.
• 5:29
  Host 1: The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Tehran's attempt
• 5:32
  Host 1: to skirt the US economic blockade by pushing overland trade
• 5:34
  Host 1: is just completely backfiring.
• 5:36
  Host 2: Yeah, they have hundreds of commercial trucks just stranded
• 5:39
  Host 2: at their land borders with Pakistan, Turkey, and Afghanistan.
• 5:41
  Host 1: Hundreds of them.
• 5:43
  Host 2: And the crazy part is it's not because of,
• 5:45
  Host 2: like, a foreign military intervention,
• 5:47
  Host 2: it's entirely self-inflicted bureaucratic hurdles.
• 5:50
  Host 1: Okay.
• 5:51
  Host 2: They built an economic release valve to bypass sanctions
• 5:53
  Host 2: and then choked it off with their own red tape.
• 5:55
  Host 1: But while a traditional state like Iran is failing
• 5:58
  Host 1: at basic customs logistics...
• 5:59
  Host 2: Mm-hmm.
• 6:01
  Host 1: Non-state actors are leveling up in ways
• 6:03
  Host 1: that are genuinely terrifying national security experts.
• 6:05
  Host 2: Yeah, the New York Times piece today.
• 6:07
  Host 1: Right, they highlighted a new report from Anthropic
• 6:10
  Host 1: regarding the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
• 6:12
  Host 1: Historically, we thought of the Houthis as uh insurgents
• 6:14
  Host 1: in pickup trucks with AK-47s, right?
• 6:16
  Host 2: Right, entirely reliant on Tehran for their hardware
• 6:19
  Host 2: and their strategy.
• 6:20
  Host 1: Exactly. But the Anthropic report outlines
• 6:23
  Host 1: this massive technological leap.
• 6:25
  Host 1: The Houthis are now using artificial intelligence
• 6:27
  Host 1: to design and build their own advanced weapon systems.
• 6:30
  Host 2: Wait, so they're effectively severing that reliance on Iran?
• 6:32
  Host 1: Exactly. They don't need Tehran to ship them missiles anymore
• 6:34
  Host 1: if they can just use AI to optimize
• 6:37
  Host 1: their own domestic manufacturing.
• 6:39
  Host 2: Wow.
• 6:40
  Host 1: It is making them the most lethal non-state actor
• 6:42
  Host 1: in the Middle East right now.
• 6:44
  Host 1: It is the definition of asymmetrical warfare becoming symmetrical.
• 6:47
  Host 2: And we are seeing the collateral damage of this tech adoption in real time.
• 6:49
  Host 2: Amazon Web Services recently reported actual data loss
• 6:52
  Host 2: from some of their Persian Gulf data centers
• 6:55
  Host 2: because of an Iranian drone strike.
• 6:57
  Host 1: Yeah, we're seeing physical kinetic weapons
• 6:59
  Host 1: destroying cloud data infrastructure.
• 7:01
  Host 2: That represents such a fundamental shift in global power dynamics.
• 7:04
  Host 2: You have a rebel group harnessing cutting edge AI
• 7:06
  Host 2: while traditional nation states seem completely bogged down.
• 7:09
  Host 1: Yeah, and that paralysis is really spooking
• 7:11
  Host 1: the established global financial system.
• 7:13
  Host 2: Seriously. The Times is running this fascinating piece
• 7:15
  Host 2: about foreign governments quietly hauling
• 7:17
  Host 2: their physical gold reserves out of US vaults.
• 7:20
  Host 1: And the mechanism there is completely tied to trust.
• 7:22
  Host 1: Foreign governments are looking at a $40 trillion US national debt.
• 7:25
  Host 2: $40 trillion. Wow.
• 7:27
  Host 1: Yeah, combined with the aggressive way the US
• 7:30
  Host 1: has weaponized the dollar through financial sanctions in recent years.
• 7:32
  Host 2: Right. If you're a foreign nation, you start to realize
• 7:35
  Host 2: that keeping your gold in New York means Washington
• 7:37
  Host 2: can freeze your economy with the stroke of a pen.
• 7:39
  Host 1: So they're looking at the American basket
• 7:41
  Host 1: and deciding it's just too risky to keep all their eggs in it.
• 7:44
  Host 2: Exactly. We are seeing traditional allies seek out
• 7:46
  Host 2: new independent bonds.
• 7:48
  Host 2: Over in Strasbourg, Ursula von der Leyen,
• 7:50
  Host 2: the head of the EU Commission,
• 7:52
  Host 2: just offered Canada associate member status.
• 7:54
  Host 1: Which is wild.
• 7:56
  Host 2: Right. The explicit goal is to help Canada
• 7:58
  Host 2: counter US tariff threats.
• 8:00
  Host 2: And Mark Carney was there and actually received
• 8:02
  Host 2: a standing ovation for it.
• 8:04
  Host 2: The idea of Canada economically integrating with the European Union
• 8:06
  Host 2: to buffer against US policy is just... wild.
• 8:08
  Host 1: It really is. Are traditional nation states losing their grip?
• 8:11
  Host 1: Because while the EU and Canada try to form new defensive blocs,
• 8:14
  Host 1: you have tech billionaires operating on an entirely different playing field.
• 8:17
  Host 2: Absolutely. Like Elon Musk is essentially acting
• 8:19
  Host 2: as a shadow diplomat on X.
• 8:21
  Host 2: He's obsessively posting to Royal UK politicians,
• 8:23
  Host 2: directly attacking the Mayor of Belfast,
• 8:25
  Host 2: and boosting far-right politicians like Rupert Lowe.
• 8:28
  Host 1: When a single CEO has the platform to destabilize
• 8:30
  Host 1: a foreign government's domestic politics,
• 8:33
  Host 1: the concept of sovereignty gets very blurry.
• 8:35
  Host 1: The power of AI and digital platforms in the hands
• 8:38
  Host 1: of private citizens or non-state actors...
• 8:40
  Host 1: it's promising massive economic booms,
• 8:42
  Host 1: but it is also delivering existential threats.
• 8:44
  Host 2: Right. And that specific tension is currently tearing
• 8:47
  Host 2: the White House apart behind closed doors.
• 8:49
  Host 1: Yeah, the Wall Street Journal published a really detailed deep dive
• 8:52
  Host 1: into the internal dynamics of the administration today.
• 8:54
  Host 2: Yeah, they did.
• 8:56
  Host 1: And we are just reporting what's in the journal here,
• 8:58
  Host 1: but the reporting details a massive, quiet freak-out
• 9:01
  Host 1: happening in the West Wing.
• 9:02
  Host 2: A total freak-out.
• 9:04
  Host 1: It centers around David Sacks, who is acting as an AI advisor.
• 9:06
  Host 1: He apparently managed to convince President Trump
• 9:09
  Host 1: to scrap a planned executive order that would have mandated
• 9:11
  Host 1: strict safety reviews for AI models.
• 9:14
  Host 2: Right. Sacks pushed hard for deregulation.
• 9:16
  Host 2: He argued that the US needs to win the AI arms race
• 9:18
  Host 2: without being hobbled by red tape.
• 9:20
  Host 1: Okay.
• 9:21
  Host 2: But that decision to scrap the safety order
• 9:24
  Host 2: completely blindsided White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles
• 9:26
  Host 2: and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
• 9:28
  Host 1: Wait, why is the Treasury Secretary getting involved in AI regulation?
• 9:31
  Host 1: That seems outside his wheelhouse.
• 9:33
  Host 2: Because Bessent is looking at the systemic financial risks.
• 9:35
  Host 1: Oh, okay.
• 9:37
  Host 2: He is reportedly terrified that without federal guardrails,
• 9:39
  Host 2: an AI-led cyber attack could hit the US banking system.
• 9:42
  Host 1: Wow.
• 9:43
  Host 1: Imagine an autonomous program exploiting vulnerabilities
• 9:46
  Host 1: in the banking sector at a speed humans can't even monitor.
• 9:48
  Host 1: It could wreak absolute havoc on the economy.
• 9:50
  Host 2: So the President scrapped the safety order,
• 9:53
  Host 2: but his own Chief of Staff and Treasury Secretary
• 9:55
  Host 2: are so worried that they are holding urgent
• 9:57
  Host 2: daily meetings with tech executives to try and build
• 10:00
  Host 2: informal, voluntary guardrails.
• 10:02
  Host 1: Exactly. They are bringing in companies like OpenAI,
• 10:04
  Host 1: who by the way, just reported a recent increase in safety incidents.
• 10:07
  Host 2: Right.
• 10:08
  Host 1: But on the other side of the table, they're talking to Anthropic,
• 10:11
  Host 1: who are collaborating with Novo Nordisk on AI-driven drug research.
• 10:14
  Host 2: Which is huge.
• 10:15
  Host 1: And that drug research is producing incredible breakthroughs.
• 10:17
  Host 1: This perfectly captures the dilemma, doesn't it?
• 10:20
  Host 1: If you are sitting in the Oval Office,
• 10:22
  Host 1: you are desperate for the economic boom that AI promises,
• 10:25
  Host 1: you know, revolutionizing healthcare and drug discovery,
• 10:27
  Host 1: but the people tasked with maintaining national stability
• 10:30
  Host 1: know the systemic vulnerabilities are massive.
• 10:32
  Host 2: Exactly. You want the engine to run faster,
• 10:34
  Host 2: but you are acutely aware the brakes have just been disconnected.
• 10:37
  Host 1: And that profound push and pull between heavy-handed intervention
• 10:40
  Host 1: and sweeping deregulation is defining
• 10:42
  Host 1: the entire domestic policy landscape right now.
• 10:44
  Host 2: Yeah, we see it playing out across multiple agencies in the US today
• 10:47
  Host 2: in the Washington Post this morning.
• 10:49
  Host 1: Starting with the push for deregulation,
• 10:51
  Host 1: the EPA is officially repealing the Biden-era emissions limits
• 10:54
  Host 1: on coal and gas-fired power plants.
• 10:56
  Host 2: Okay.
• 10:57
  Host 1: The administration estimates this rollback
• 10:59
  Host 1: will save the energy sector $310 billion,
• 11:01
  Host 1: fulfilling a pledge they made at the G20
• 11:04
  Host 1: to prioritize energy independence and unlock raw economic growth.
• 11:07
  Host 2: But the public health sector is showing the real-time consequences
• 11:09
  Host 2: of aggressively dismantling oversight.
• 11:11
  Host 2: I mean, we are currently facing the worst measles crisis
• 11:14
  Host 2: in the United States since 1989.
• 11:16
  Host 2: There have already been four deaths in Pennsylvania.
• 11:18
  Host 1: Yeah, and Republican Senator Bill Cassidy,
• 11:21
  Host 1: who is a physician and chairs the Health Committee,
• 11:23
  Host 1: he is publicly calling this surge a terrible legacy
• 11:25
  Host 1: for the administration.
• 11:27
  Host 2: Wow.
• 11:28
  Host 1: He traces the outbreak directly back to Trump's executive order
• 11:30
  Host 1: that forced the combined MMR vaccine
• 11:32
  Host 1: to be broken up into three separate doses.
• 11:35
  Host 2: And this is where policy hits logistics, right?
• 11:37
  Host 2: When you mandate that a childhood vaccine be split
• 11:39
  Host 2: into three separate appointments,
• 11:42
  Host 2: you physically disrupt the immunization schedule.
• 11:44
  Host 1: Absolutely. Parents miss appointments, compliance drops,
• 11:46
  Host 1: and suddenly a highly contagious, previously eradicated disease
• 11:49
  Host 1: finds a foothold again.
• 11:51
  Host 2: Right. Add to that the logistical nightmare that states currently
• 11:53
  Host 2: cannot get COVID shots from the CDC
• 11:55
  Host 2: for federal distribution programs.
• 11:58
  Host 2: It feels like an aggressive move to deregulate invisible threats,
• 12:00
  Host 2: whether it's power plant emissions or viral vectors.
• 12:03
  Host 2: But simultaneously, the administration is incredibly focused
• 12:05
  Host 2: on highly visible, physical legacy projects.
• 12:07
  Host 1: Oh, the monuments.
• 12:09
  Host 2: Right. Trump is threatening to let the Kennedy Center
• 12:12
  Host 2: for the Performing Arts literally be ripped down
• 12:14
  Host 2: unless his administration gets naming rights
• 12:16
  Host 2: in exchange for a $250 million bailout.
• 12:19
  Host 1: It's just wild. And we are seeing a similar fight
• 12:21
  Host 1: over in Memorial Circle.
• 12:22
  Host 2: Yeah.
• 12:24
  Host 2: The National Park Service formally conceded
• 12:26
  Host 2: that Trump's planned 330-foot Triumphal Arch
• 12:29
  Host 2: will unavoidably harm the historic sightlines
• 12:31
  Host 2: of both Arlington Cemetery and the Lincoln Memorial.
• 12:34
  Host 1: It's massive.
• 12:35
  Host 2: The sheer physical scale of it disrupts the geography of the capital,
• 12:38
  Host 2: but the Park Service says the project is moving forward anyway.
• 12:40
  Host 1: It's a jarring juxtaposition of priorities.
• 12:43
  Host 1: Building massive physical monuments while stripping away
• 12:45
  Host 1: the invisible safety nets.
• 12:47
  Host 2: Right. And we are seeing similar whiplash in immigration policy.
• 12:50
  Host 2: The LA Times highlights the case of Luis Galeano,
• 12:52
  Host 2: he's a Nicaraguan dissident and journalist
• 12:55
  Host 2: who fled the Ortega regime back in 2018.
• 12:57
  Host 1: Yeah, he was originally welcomed by the US, granted protection,
• 12:59
  Host 1: and spent years documenting human rights abuses.
• 13:02
  Host 2: But under the administration's newly widened deportation dragnet,
• 13:05
  Host 2: he was just arrested in Florida and now faces deportation
• 13:07
  Host 2: back to Nicaragua.
• 13:09
  Host 2: The system is sweeping up the very dissidents it previously offered asylum to.
• 13:11
  Host 1: If you try to make sense of this political environment,
• 13:14
  Host 1: it's just chaotic.
• 13:15
  Host 2: Yeah.
• 13:16
  Host 1: Demanding names on physical monuments,
• 13:19
  Host 1: dismantling the systems managing invisible threats,
• 13:21
  Host 1: and reversing course on asylum seekers.
• 13:23
  Host 2: Yeah.
• 13:25
  Host 2: How does the political class even message this to voters?
• 13:27
  Host 1: Well, the data shows they are really struggling to do so.
• 13:30
  Host 1: The Washington Post analyzed over a million social media posts
• 13:32
  Host 1: from the midterm campaigns.
• 13:34
  Host 2: Okay.
• 13:35
  Host 1: And during the convention, Trump told GOP candidates
• 13:38
  Host 1: their winning strategy was to act like he was on the ballot
• 13:41
  Host 1: and promise a $5,000 payout to every citizen.
• 13:43
  Host 2: But the candidates are completely ignoring the advice.
• 13:45
  Host 1: Completely. The data proves that GOP politicians
• 13:48
  Host 1: have halved their mentions of Trump or the MAGA movement
• 13:50
  Host 1: since the start of the year.
• 13:52
  Host 2: Wow.
• 13:53
  Host 1: And they are walking away from that $5,000 promise entirely.
• 13:56
  Host 2: Meanwhile, Congress is trying to assert its own relevance
• 13:59
  Host 2: in increasingly strange ways.
• 14:00
  Host 1: Oh yeah.