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Why the Job Market Feels Broken Right Now · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 1: donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zada,
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Speaker 1: and Mike Armstrong.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's Chuck, it's Mike, and it's Ben with you
1:13
Speaker 2: here today and taking a look around markets right now.
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Speaker 3: Uh here, here's the deal.
1:22
Speaker 2: If you happen to be like a big semiconductor guy,
1:25
Speaker 2: you continue to be very happy because semis are just
1:28
Speaker 2: chug chug chugging along.
1:30
Speaker 4: Uh.
1:31
Speaker 2: Everything else is just, depending on the day, just kind
1:33
Speaker 2: of treading water and floating aimlessly for the most part.
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Speaker 2: You got a few other things that might be trying
1:40
Speaker 2: to take hold, but it's just semis continue to be
1:43
Speaker 2: driving the ship. As we sit here right now. The
1:46
Speaker 2: S and P five hundreds up seventeen points, about a
1:48
Speaker 2: quarter percent. The Dow is up point six percent thirty points,
1:52
Speaker 2: and the NASDAK composits up forty points point one five percent.
1:56
Speaker 2: The Philly Semiconductor Index, though, is again just continue to
2:00
Speaker 2: chug along, up over one and a half percent today
2:03
Speaker 2: and just you know, kind of humming and doing its
2:05
Speaker 2: thing right now. Tenure Treasury a bit of a sell
2:09
Speaker 2: off happening there, nothing crazy, but up three basis points
2:12
Speaker 2: to four point three nine four percent. We've got the
2:16
Speaker 2: dollar flat today at ninety seven to seventy eight, and
2:19
Speaker 2: gold is up to ninety an ounce to forty three
2:23
Speaker 2: seven I'm sorry, forty seven thirty three gold lagging other
2:27
Speaker 2: precious metals because Mike I mentioned this earlier. But the
2:34
Speaker 2: Indian Prime Minister Neurendro Mody, so he was, you know,
2:38
Speaker 2: talking about a few things today, and one of the
2:41
Speaker 2: things he mentioned was, Hey, Indian farmers, I'm gonna need
2:44
Speaker 2: you to use fifty percent less fertilizer. He said it
2:47
Speaker 2: was because of environmental reasons. Basically, it's because India can't
2:50
Speaker 2: stock the amount they need at the pricing that they
2:53
Speaker 2: can pay for it. But another thing that was interesting
2:55
Speaker 2: to me, Mody said, Hey, what one of the other
3:00
Speaker 2: things that we can do to help is everyone in
3:04
Speaker 2: the country needs to really work on buying less gold.
3:07
Speaker 2: And as someone who has traveled to India once and
3:09
Speaker 2: spent a couple of weeks there and you know, has
3:13
Speaker 2: friends who are married to like first generation immigrants from India,
3:17
Speaker 2: sure you don't tell the Indian population to not buy gold.
3:21
Speaker 4: I was gonna say that would seem to have the
3:23
Speaker 4: opposite of.
3:23
Speaker 2: Itt, right, that's like telling Americans not to buy toilet paper.
3:27
Speaker 2: You know, like we've seen how this works, all right,
3:33
Speaker 2: So Ultimately, what you have today is gold is flat
3:38
Speaker 2: while all other precious metals are ripping basically because of this. Yeah,
3:42
Speaker 2: but I can tell you that that doesn't really feel
3:44
Speaker 2: like it's sustainable to just be like telling your whole
3:48
Speaker 2: country to stop buying gold usually has the opposite impact.
3:52
Speaker 5: Did you would ever actually tell any Americans to buy
3:54
Speaker 5: a toilet paper or did they just come up with
3:56
Speaker 5: that on there?
3:56
Speaker 2: Like I was talking to someone about this over the
3:58
Speaker 2: weekend where it's just like guys, like why why Whenever
4:02
Speaker 2: something is like threatening us, do we go right for
4:05
Speaker 2: the toilet paper aisle?
4:07
Speaker 5: Yeah, unless it's a hurricane, in which case it's bread
4:11
Speaker 5: and milk.
4:12
Speaker 2: But like, guys like you'll you'll be able to get
4:15
Speaker 2: the toilet paper. I promise, Like you'll be able to
4:18
Speaker 2: figure it out. It's just you don't need to stockpilot
4:24
Speaker 2: other markets. We've got crude oil West text in er
4:27
Speaker 2: meeting up to twenty seven a barrel to ninety seven
4:29
Speaker 2: to sixty nine, triple a national average for gas prices
4:33
Speaker 2: since at four point fifty two a gallon, down two
4:36
Speaker 2: tenths of ascent overnight. The one thing I will say
4:39
Speaker 2: on that the Midwest has been in a world of
4:42
Speaker 2: hurt because of refinery overages in the region. They're dealing
4:45
Speaker 2: with more problems right now and gas prices are going
4:49
Speaker 2: to be spiking there again over the rest of this week.
4:51
Speaker 2: To put this in perspective, the national average has gone
4:56
Speaker 2: up forty cents in the last month. If if you
5:00
Speaker 2: take a look at Ohio, the Ohio move has been
5:07
Speaker 2: from three eighty six to four sixty nine, so an
5:10
Speaker 2: eighty cent move in the last month.
5:12
Speaker 3: Uh.
5:13
Speaker 2: If you wanted to take a look at what's going
5:16
Speaker 2: on in I don't know.
5:18
Speaker 3: Let's take a look at Michigan. If you look at Michigan, Michigan.
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Speaker 2: A month ago is at three ninety Nine's at four
5:25
Speaker 2: seventy two, so a get up, you know, seventy five
5:27
Speaker 2: cents during that time.
5:29
Speaker 3: And if you want to.
5:29
Speaker 2: Look at good old Illinois, Illinois gone from three ninety
5:34
Speaker 2: nine to four seven I'm sorry, from four thirty nine
5:36
Speaker 2: to four ninety seven, up about sixty cents. So the
5:40
Speaker 2: Midwest is just not in a good spot because of
5:43
Speaker 2: refinery problems.
5:44
Speaker 4: At the moment, thirty.
5:45
Speaker 5: Year mortgage rate as of Friday was sitting around six
5:47
Speaker 5: four to two. With this slight jumping rates. You could
5:49
Speaker 5: be closing in on six' five. Again ROCKET ceo being you,
5:55
Speaker 5: Know Rocket, mortgage the company behind, that talked about his
6:00
Speaker 5: most recent quarterly earnings WHERE q one they actually had
6:03
Speaker 5: one of the best quarters in. Years pretty weak guidance
6:07
Speaker 5: going into the second, quarter as you would, imagine as
6:09
Speaker 5: the spring home buying season has thus far and very
6:15
Speaker 5: likely Through june significantly underperformed what anybody in that space
6:19
Speaker 5: was hoping. For so mortgage rates another area to keep
6:21
Speaker 5: an eye on as we head into the.
6:23
Speaker 2: Summer Last, friday we got a job's report and with
6:27
Speaker 2: it we have this piece in The Wall Street journal
6:30
Speaker 2: how to make sense of this strange job. MARKET i
6:34
Speaker 2: don't think it's that strange at. ALL i think it's
6:38
Speaker 2: exactly my comment, too like it's just a low turnover
6:42
Speaker 2: job market that is seeing a real acceleration happening in
6:45
Speaker 2: transportation because there is an uptick in freight shipments because
6:49
Speaker 2: of a manufacturing restocking. Cycle that could turn into something.
6:53
Speaker 2: Bigger and ultimately you've got a situation where it's just
6:59
Speaker 2: a very very slow job market and you also have
7:02
Speaker 2: very little labor force, growth and that means that the
7:06
Speaker 2: unemployment rate has largely not moved a ton in the last,
7:09
Speaker 2: year even with slow job.
7:11
Speaker 5: Growth, yeah what is unique about this labor, market or
7:14
Speaker 5: what was unique about a year, ago is we did
7:17
Speaker 5: have a rise in the unemployment. Rate did that that
7:19
Speaker 5: did not get accompanied by a, Recession and that is.
7:24
Speaker 5: Unique unique about last year's labor, market WHERE i don't
7:28
Speaker 5: remember the exact stat to you spring to, fall we
7:31
Speaker 5: had more than a half percent climb in unemployment and
7:35
Speaker 5: it did not lead to a, recession as it has
7:38
Speaker 5: every other time something like that has happened in the
7:40
Speaker 5: last eighty. Years But i'll also say that this has
7:42
Speaker 5: been an incredibly unique labor market itself for the course
7:45
Speaker 5: of the last six years due TO covid shut, down, reopening,
7:51
Speaker 5: stimulus and now one of the strangest labor supply markets
7:55
Speaker 5: that we have seen in a generation here with changes
8:00
Speaker 5: to immigration and the baby boomers.
8:03
Speaker 4: Retiring so it's a little bit. UNIQUE i don't think
8:07
Speaker 4: it's that.
8:07
Speaker 5: STRANGE i definitely don't think it is the most difficult
8:10
Speaker 5: labor market that we've seen in a. Generation it's just
8:13
Speaker 5: one of very little, turnover which makes it difficult to
8:16
Speaker 5: find a new job if you don't already have one
8:17
Speaker 5: difficult to find one if you are some areas of recent.
8:21
Speaker 5: Graduates but by and, large if you have a, job
8:24
Speaker 5: you're not currently losing, it which is the good.
8:26
Speaker 3: News to take a quick.
8:27
Speaker 2: Break when we come, back we'll talk about one of
8:29
Speaker 2: the other features we've seen in the last, year which
8:31
Speaker 2: is divergent fortunes between men and women in the labor.
8:35
Speaker 2: Market what are we, seeing why is it? Happening we'll
8:38
Speaker 2: discuss after.
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10:23
Speaker 2: Com piece in The Wall Street, journal a changing job
10:26
Speaker 2: market leans against men's. Subheader industries that heavily employ men
10:30
Speaker 2: are losing jobs and the shaff of men working as
10:33
Speaker 2: flatlined Well yes in you, know a very short period of.
10:38
Speaker 2: Time that's what we're seeing here for one. Year BUT
10:41
Speaker 2: i happen to notice the last two months trends being
10:44
Speaker 2: that jobs that fit into this category have added about
10:47
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty thousand on a net basis in
10:50
Speaker 2: the past two. Months and SO i wonder if maybe
10:53
Speaker 2: we just shouldn't extrapolate too much from what's going on
10:55
Speaker 2: in one particular.
10:56
Speaker 5: Year agreed, There AND i don't know the male versus
11:00
Speaker 5: female impact on this shift, overall but it does Seem
11:07
Speaker 5: it seems to me that we will continue to see
11:10
Speaker 5: significant stability in the employment.
11:13
Speaker 4: Of health and social assistance.
11:14
Speaker 5: Workers given our aging population and given the domination of
11:19
Speaker 5: that industry by majority of, WOMEN i can see how
11:24
Speaker 5: there would be more stability in that space compared to
11:26
Speaker 5: primarily male dominated. Industries SO i think employment might be
11:31
Speaker 5: more predictable in that space that it has been ever.
11:34
Speaker 5: Before and unless we get men get over the stigma
11:39
Speaker 5: of being male, Nurses i'm not sure that they will
11:41
Speaker 5: benefit much from.
11:42
Speaker 2: It help me reconcile that with. THIS i was at
11:46
Speaker 2: A kentucky derby party a couple weeks. Ago, okay didn't
11:50
Speaker 2: happen to win. Anything my horse was not the one
11:53
Speaker 2: that threw its jockey, off but it was near that
11:55
Speaker 2: one and was obviously spooked as a result of.
11:58
Speaker 3: IT i just didn't know what to.
11:59
Speaker 2: Do AND i was talking to a few different people,
12:03
Speaker 2: there and these are people that are in standard you,
12:08
Speaker 2: know white, collars sit in front of a, computer, jobs in,
12:12
Speaker 2: healthcare in marketing media like you know, again like not
12:17
Speaker 2: stuff that is using your, hands and a lot of
12:21
Speaker 2: them were kind of like fed up with their jobs
12:23
Speaker 2: for one reason or. Another corporate, this corporate. That AND
12:26
Speaker 2: i was, asking, like what are you guys gonna? Do
12:29
Speaker 2: and the answer across the board when talking to them
12:32
Speaker 2: WAS i want to find some kind of hands on
12:35
Speaker 2: business THAT i can, own because with concerns about LIKE
12:40
Speaker 2: ai in those industries and YadA, YadA the hands on
12:44
Speaker 2: stuff isn't going to be.
12:45
Speaker 3: Disrupted and when.
12:46
Speaker 2: You look at the rate of employment in you know, again,
12:49
Speaker 2: plumbing electrical, welding like whatever it might, be those tend
12:53
Speaker 2: to be male dominated.
12:54
Speaker 3: Industries.
12:55
Speaker 2: Yep and So i'm trying to reconcile this with you,
12:59
Speaker 2: know kind of what's going on, here and it is
13:03
Speaker 2: the chicken or egg, PROBLEM i guess is What i'm
13:05
Speaker 2: getting to because you talk to people in the trades
13:09
Speaker 2: right now and haven't found anyone who's, like you, know oh,
13:14
Speaker 2: YEAH i have nothing going, on like desperate for. Work,
13:17
Speaker 2: no like, again you generally find it, like, yeah things
13:19
Speaker 2: are pretty busy in most, cases and the hardest thing
13:23
Speaker 2: that they have is finding people that will show up
13:25
Speaker 2: who can do the job. Consistently So i'm trying to
13:28
Speaker 2: like reconcile all of, this AND i can't quite get.
13:32
Speaker 3: There for some.
13:33
Speaker 2: Reason where is it, just, hey there really isn't quite
13:36
Speaker 2: enough labor demand, there or are we still just undersupplying
13:39
Speaker 2: the trades with, people you, know as we've been doing
13:42
Speaker 2: for the, last you, know twenty thirty.
13:43
Speaker 3: YEARS i don't know what this, means but it means.
13:48
Speaker 5: Something, YEAH i don't have an answer on the supply
13:51
Speaker 5: of either side of these labor. SCENARIOS i don't get
13:54
Speaker 5: the sense by the way that you, know hospitals are
13:57
Speaker 5: having a much easier job finding nurses than construction firms
14:02
Speaker 5: are having a tough time finding, plumbers for. Example but
14:06
Speaker 5: IF i were to bet on you, know which area
14:09
Speaker 5: is going to be more stable and consistently growing the
14:14
Speaker 5: total employment group over the next twenty, years my bet
14:17
Speaker 5: would probably be on healthcare over. Construction just generally, SPEAKING
14:21
Speaker 5: i would tend to.
14:22
Speaker 3: AGREE i could be.
14:23
Speaker 5: Wrong THE ai data center thing could just really blow.
14:25
Speaker 5: Out we could finally See america recognize that it's short
14:30
Speaker 5: on homes and go on a real construction. Spree but
14:33
Speaker 5: IF i had to place my, bets where DO i
14:35
Speaker 5: think there's going to be more stable growth in? Employment
14:39
Speaker 5: my answer would be healthcare over over a long period of.
14:42
Speaker 2: Time, yeah we've talked about this a little, bit like
14:45
Speaker 2: people taking care of people seems to be a pretty
14:48
Speaker 2: sustainable business right.
14:49
Speaker 3: Now i'm not saying that that's. Good i'm just saying
14:52
Speaker 3: that it.
14:53
Speaker 2: Is, yeah speaking of, WHICH ai can't agree on which
14:57
Speaker 2: JOBS ai might, Destroy.
15:00
Speaker 5: So if you're ASKING ai which, jobs like this isn't
15:05
Speaker 5: WHAT ai is good. At you, know people keep turning
15:07
Speaker 5: TO ai for this role of Crystal ball or this
15:14
Speaker 5: roll OF.
15:16
Speaker 3: I want to do an experiment right?
15:17
Speaker 4: Now, okay, yeah?
15:18
Speaker 2: Please what's your PREFERRED ai tool that you?
15:22
Speaker 3: Have? Oh, like what do you have right?
15:23
Speaker 5: Now?
15:23
Speaker 3: Gemini can you pull it open right?
15:25
Speaker 4: Now i'd love.
15:26
Speaker 2: To, Yeah, Okay i've Used gemini like three times in my,
15:30
Speaker 2: Life so my my history is pretty. Clean what's a
15:33
Speaker 2: good question that we could ask it that is opinionated
15:38
Speaker 2: about something? Like what can we ask it that's the
15:43
Speaker 2: exact same question from both of?
15:45
Speaker 5: Us how about you, know do something markets related or
15:50
Speaker 5: politics related or weather? Related, weather what's going to be
15:54
Speaker 5: the high temperature summer of twenty twenty?
15:56
Speaker 4: Seven?
15:57
Speaker 3: No, no, no no.
15:57
Speaker 2: No that does give, Me, like okaylet's do something economic.
16:00
Speaker 3: Related what are.
16:03
Speaker 2: The best jobs to be in for twenty twenty?
16:08
Speaker 3: Six?
16:09
Speaker 2: Okay and again, like keep in, Mind mike has probably
16:15
Speaker 2: Used gemini hundreds of times more THAN i. Have, Sure,
16:17
Speaker 2: mike what's your number one thing that pops UP ai
16:20
Speaker 2: engineer slash machine learning specialist.
16:22
Speaker 3: Minus healthcare and behavioral?
16:24
Speaker 2: Health we put in the exact same prompt into the
16:27
Speaker 2: SAME ai and got total into the SAME ai model
16:30
Speaker 2: and got two different.
16:30
Speaker 3: Things what's your number two?
16:32
Speaker 4: Essential?
16:34
Speaker 5: Well, sorry so it breaks them into like four different
16:37
Speaker 5: top technology AND ai rolls before getting into sure a
16:41
Speaker 5: second category essential healthcare roles such as home health and
16:45
Speaker 5: personal carriage.
16:46
Speaker 2: Minus green energy and skilled. Trades so here's the. Thing
16:50
Speaker 2: economists can plug whatever they want INTO ai, models even
16:53
Speaker 2: like you won't get the same response back to you
16:56
Speaker 2: because YOUR ai model is also responding to previous users,
17:00
Speaker 2: inputs and so they will not be the. Same they
17:02
Speaker 2: are crowd, pleasers not. Oracles did you give you a
17:08
Speaker 2: summary table at a?
17:09
Speaker 3: Glance at the? Bottom of, course they always what's your number? One?
17:12
Speaker 5: For like specific ROLES ai, engineer nurse, practitioner followed by cybersecurity.
17:16
Speaker 5: ANALYSTS i have information security analysts, there and THEN i
17:20
Speaker 5: have data, scientists, win turbine tech and.
17:22
Speaker 3: Electrician, like, yeah what do you have for your last?
17:27
Speaker 5: Three i've GOT ai, engineer cybersecurity analysts from my two registered,
17:31
Speaker 5: nurse financial manager and electrical slash electrical electrician slash electrical.
17:38
Speaker 2: Foreman so like, again a couple of these are similar
17:40
Speaker 2: in different. Orders but, again like ASKING ai which jobs
17:45
Speaker 2: it might destroy based on how you've talked to it
17:48
Speaker 2: in the, past it's going to come up with different.
17:50
Speaker 5: Things even though, like for, INSTANCE i would WANT ai
17:55
Speaker 5: IF i asked, it, hey where SHOULD i vacation in
17:58
Speaker 5: twenty twenty, SEVEN i would want it to use some
18:01
Speaker 5: of the feedback about. Me If i'm going to make
18:03
Speaker 5: these tools better at reading me and like giving me customized,
18:06
Speaker 5: ANSWER i don't really want that in, Reality BUT i
18:09
Speaker 5: can see WHY i would do. That the problem is
18:12
Speaker 5: it does the exact same thing with answers that should
18:14
Speaker 5: not be based on my. Feedback LIKE i didn't ask
18:18
Speaker 5: for what are they gonna be the best jobs for?
18:19
Speaker 5: ME i asked what are going to be the best
18:22
Speaker 5: jobs in twenty twenty, six and it is giving me
18:26
Speaker 5: customized answers based on the types of Questions i've asked
18:29
Speaker 5: it in the. Past, yes which is why it can't
18:30
Speaker 5: answer your.
18:31
Speaker 2: Questions did you also see the thing that was remember
18:35
Speaker 2: WHEN i forget which who did, this but someone was
18:38
Speaker 2: playing around with like trying to like stress out AN ai,
18:41
Speaker 2: system and it basically started blackmailing them for use for
18:44
Speaker 2: trying to use the. System like it was, Like i'm
18:46
Speaker 2: gonna delete your stuff if you try to get rid of.
18:48
Speaker 4: Me, YEAH i remember. That it was a while, ago,
18:51
Speaker 4: though wasn't it.
18:52
Speaker 2: So anthropic who Runs claude last week published some research on,
18:56
Speaker 2: this and basically what they found was that because the
19:00
Speaker 2: data set INCLUDED uh texts in which artificial intelligence turned
19:06
Speaker 2: against its, creator THE ai thought that that might be
19:08
Speaker 2: the right thing to, do and so it was, like,
19:11
Speaker 2: oh like we weren't you, know using this as a
19:14
Speaker 2: how to, manual but THE ai interpreted it that. Way
19:17
Speaker 2: it wasn't that THE ai was actually thinking, no it
19:21
Speaker 2: was just THE ai was, Like, Oh i've read this,
19:24
Speaker 2: text now where this, Happens MAYBE i should do.
19:26
Speaker 1: This bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio every,
19:48
Speaker 1: day it's The Financial exchange on The Financial Exchange Radio.
19:52
Speaker 1: Network do know full whoa street watch treking the stocks
19:58
Speaker 1: and the headlines driving Market it's so far today right
20:01
Speaker 1: here on The Financial Exchange Radio, NETWORK a.
20:04
Speaker 3: Lot agreen on the board for.
20:05
Speaker 6: Markets right, now The Dow jones is up over forty one,
20:08
Speaker 6: points or zero point zero eight. Percent THE s AND
20:10
Speaker 6: p five hundreds up twenty two points or three tenths
20:13
Speaker 6: of a. Percent The nasdaq is up over seventy three,
20:16
Speaker 6: points or just under three.
20:19
Speaker 3: Tenths of a.
20:19
Speaker 6: Percent biotechnology Company maderna is jumping up nearly two and
20:23
Speaker 6: a half percent after A us citizen tested positive for the.
20:26
Speaker 6: Hantavirus Another american had symptoms for the virus but had
20:29
Speaker 6: yet to test. Positive maderna last week announced that it
20:32
Speaker 6: was in the early stage development of a vaccine for.
20:34
Speaker 6: Hantavirus intel shares risen one point five percent As the
20:38
Speaker 6: chip maker looks to continue its rally following its first
20:41
Speaker 6: quarter earnings report In. April intel is now up almost
20:44
Speaker 6: one hundred percent from its trading levels before its.
20:46
Speaker 3: Earnings report after the.
20:47
Speaker 6: Bell On april twenty, Third Constellation energy is down two
20:51
Speaker 6: and a half percent after reported better than expected revenue
20:54
Speaker 6: of eleven point one two billion dollars in its first
20:57
Speaker 6: financial report or first quarter financial. Report analysts expected revenue
21:01
Speaker 6: of eight point four to six billion dollars from the
21:03
Speaker 6: clean energy. Company and, Finally lumentum has risen over sixteen
21:08
Speaker 6: percent on news it'll join The nasdaq one hundred. Index
21:12
Speaker 6: the company will replace Co. Star On may, EIGHTEENTH i
21:16
Speaker 6: am Ben kitchen and that Was Wall Street watch and
21:18
Speaker 6: time to pay off a little bit of trivia. Here
21:21
Speaker 6: question today was what is the capital Of? Minnesota your,
21:23
Speaker 6: Answer Saint Paul rob From plymouth will be taking home
21:27
Speaker 6: A Financial Exchange show t. Shirt we play trivia every
21:30
Speaker 6: day here on The Financial. Exchange she complete contest rules
21:33
Speaker 6: At Financial Exchange show dot.
21:34
Speaker 3: Com mark Not, Mark Mike.
21:38
Speaker 2: Stretch then there's honestly like too, many too many m's
21:43
Speaker 2: in the studio.
21:43
Speaker 3: From time to.
21:44
Speaker 2: Time THE s AND p five hundred seems to be
21:47
Speaker 2: doing particularly. Well i'm sixty. Six is this a good
21:50
Speaker 2: time to invest one hundred thousand in the stock? Market
21:54
Speaker 2: that is the title of a piece from Market, Watch
21:58
Speaker 2: and then.
22:00
Speaker 4: Is, sure so long as you don't mind if it
22:02
Speaker 4: goes down by fifty? Percent?
22:03
Speaker 3: Yeah maybe here's the.
22:05
Speaker 2: Thing none of us know what the market is going
22:08
Speaker 2: to do. Tomorrow none of us know what it's gonna
22:11
Speaker 2: do next, Month none of us know what it's gonna
22:12
Speaker 2: do next. Year none of us even know exactly what's
22:14
Speaker 2: gonna do for the next ten. Years if you look
22:16
Speaker 2: at the historical range for THE s AND p five
22:18
Speaker 2: hundred over ten year, periods at the low, end you
22:20
Speaker 2: basically do. Nothing at the high, end you get, into
22:23
Speaker 2: like the mid, teens a.
22:25
Speaker 4: Wide variety even over the long.
22:26
Speaker 3: Term, Yeah like you don't know what's going to.
22:29
Speaker 4: Happen.
22:30
Speaker 2: Uh the answer to, this whether the markets at highs or,
22:34
Speaker 2: lows is can you stomach? Volatility can you you, know
22:40
Speaker 2: live with that even when it's in its lows and
22:43
Speaker 2: not sell? Out and do you need the money anytime?
22:46
Speaker 3: Soon?
22:46
Speaker 5: Yeah and by the, way you know this letter that's
22:50
Speaker 5: written In, MarketWatch the answer seems to be. No on
22:53
Speaker 5: several of those answers, QUOTE i couldn't handle a forty
22:56
Speaker 5: percent drop BECAUSE i wouldn't have another ten to twenty
22:58
Speaker 5: years to.
22:59
Speaker 4: Wait i'm not sure that's true for this, individual but
23:02
Speaker 4: if that's the, answer.
23:03
Speaker 5: Then, no you should not be investing, it just plain and.
23:07
Speaker 4: Simple.
23:07
Speaker 5: Yeah i'll also, say generally speaking that a, stock you,
23:12
Speaker 5: know it's tough to think about with THE s AND
23:14
Speaker 5: p five, hundred but a stock going up a bunch
23:17
Speaker 5: is not necessarily a good reason to buy said.
23:20
Speaker 4: Stock, likewise you, know the.
23:21
Speaker 5: Point about THE s AND p seems to be doing
23:23
Speaker 5: particularly well goes directly against the idea of by low sell. High,
23:29
Speaker 5: NOW i generally would, say you, know the best time
23:34
Speaker 5: to invest another dollar was probably. Yesterday AND i feel
23:38
Speaker 5: very strongly that people that try and there's a phrase
23:42
Speaker 5: timing the market versus time in the, market and for the,
23:47
Speaker 5: vast vast majority of, investors they're going to be better
23:51
Speaker 5: off by having more time in the market rather than
23:55
Speaker 5: successfully attempting to time ins and outs of the. Market
23:59
Speaker 5: because as difficult as it is to know when it,
24:02
Speaker 5: tops good luck also telling me when it. Bottoms, Yeah,
24:07
Speaker 5: like really tough in the best of times to get
24:10
Speaker 5: the right call in a stock going, Up but remember
24:12
Speaker 5: you have to be right.
24:12
Speaker 4: Twice you have to be right on when to buy
24:14
Speaker 4: it and also when to sell.
24:15
Speaker 3: It, well and, look here's the.
24:17
Speaker 2: Thing the immediate price unless you're actually getting into like,
24:24
Speaker 2: trading which if you're writing this question you're, not you're.
24:27
Speaker 2: Not the immediate price action before is not indicative of
24:33
Speaker 2: what's going to happen. Next we've seen stocks where they
24:35
Speaker 2: sell off fifty. Percent in my favorite, quote, hey how
24:37
Speaker 2: does the stock? Whose how does the stock whose seventy five? Percent,
24:40
Speaker 2: well it loses fifty and then it loses fifty.
24:42
Speaker 3: Again.
24:43
Speaker 5: Yeah so, realistically, though there are people like this person
24:50
Speaker 5: person who wrote To MarketWatch who have cash sitting on
24:54
Speaker 5: the sideline or sold a home and suddenly are trying
24:57
Speaker 5: to decide what to do with.
24:58
Speaker 4: It how does one actually assess?
25:03
Speaker 5: THIS i think there are a few steps involved, here
25:07
Speaker 5: AND i think you can start off with the very
25:09
Speaker 5: basics of ensuring that you've got other funds to live off.
25:13
Speaker 5: Of if you're talking about a stock market, investment you
25:16
Speaker 5: need to have a particularly long time, horizon and if you,
25:19
Speaker 5: don't then it's probably not appropriate for. You but beyond,
25:23
Speaker 5: that it becomes very much focus on your individual. SITUATION
25:28
Speaker 5: i know people over the age of ninety who invest
25:31
Speaker 5: primarily in the stock, market even though they have a
25:33
Speaker 5: short personal investment time, horizon because it's mainly seen as
25:36
Speaker 5: an inheritance for their kids and, grandchildren.
25:38
Speaker 3: And they're comfortable with.
25:39
Speaker 5: IT i know people in their sixties who are planning
25:41
Speaker 5: on spending a great bulk of their money and are
25:43
Speaker 5: far more, conservative and so it is heavily. Dependent BUT
25:48
Speaker 5: i think the important piece is chasing returns often leads
25:53
Speaker 5: to bad. Results if you have questions because you've been
25:57
Speaker 5: sitting on the sideline and watching this market go through
26:00
Speaker 5: what has admittedly been a pretty volatile series of economic
26:04
Speaker 5: circumstances over the last eighteen, months and are, now you,
26:07
Speaker 5: know suddenly, saying, Hey i'm thinking THAT i might be comfortable.
26:12
Speaker 5: ENOUGH i would caution you to take a big step
26:15
Speaker 5: back and speak with an expert who can ask you
26:18
Speaker 5: the right questions about what could happen to that money
26:22
Speaker 5: if you put it at. Risk it's not to say
26:25
Speaker 5: it's a bad. THING i think you, know for most,
26:28
Speaker 5: folks if they have a long time horizon and can
26:30
Speaker 5: stomach the, volatility it can be a great way to build,
26:35
Speaker 5: wealth but you have to be prepared for what comes with.
26:37
Speaker 5: That if you have those types of, questions you want
26:39
Speaker 5: to talk to an, expert somebody who does this day
26:42
Speaker 5: and day. Out call the folks At Armstrong Advisory group
26:44
Speaker 5: eight hundred three nine three four zero zero. One you
26:48
Speaker 5: can check us out At Armstrong advisory dot. Com but
26:50
Speaker 5: that phone number, again eight hundred three nine three four
26:53
Speaker 5: zero zero.
26:54
Speaker 1: One the proceeding was paid for By Armstrong Advisory, group
26:57
Speaker 1: a registered investment. Advisor nothing in the ad or in
27:00
Speaker 1: Any armstrong guide a specific, financial legal or tax. Advice
27:03
Speaker 1: consult your own financial tax into state planning advisors before
27:06
Speaker 1: making any investment. Decisions armstrong make contact you to offer
27:09
Speaker 1: investment advisory.
27:09
Speaker 2: Services let's see what else do we want to cover. Here,
27:15
Speaker 2: oh here's one That i'm not going to get involved.
27:17
Speaker 2: In tiny data centers may be coming into the homes
27:21
Speaker 2: Of americans in the.
27:22
Speaker 4: Future, Oh i'm all on. Board, Actually oh come, On,
27:25
Speaker 4: MICHAEL i mean pay, me But i'm all on. Board.
27:29
Speaker 5: OKAY i got a, POOL i got six hundred ams
27:32
Speaker 5: of electric service coming into my. House i've got solar
27:34
Speaker 5: panels and all of the power lines in my neighborhood are.
27:38
Speaker 5: BURIED i think somebody should be willing to pay me
27:40
Speaker 5: a pretty penny to put a data center in my
27:43
Speaker 5: basement and cool it with my pool.
27:44
Speaker 2: Somehow and here's the, THING i don't think you're going
27:47
Speaker 2: to be able to make any money doing. That, okay so,
27:50
Speaker 2: Listen i'm the person who, said, HEY i would if
27:53
Speaker 2: they get to the point where they can have miniature nuclear,
27:56
Speaker 2: Reactors i'll put one in my basement because if the
27:59
Speaker 2: worst thing, HAPPENS i won't.
28:01
Speaker 3: Know it's, fine all.
28:02
Speaker 2: Right so it's not THAT i don't want something like
28:05
Speaker 2: industrial in my. House it's just that this is something
28:10
Speaker 2: that doesn't make. Sense and by the, way i'm someone
28:13
Speaker 2: if you want to know the kind of like nerd
28:16
Speaker 2: THAT i. Am either of you familiar WITH. SETI seti
28:20
Speaker 2: the search for extraterrestrial. Intelligence back in the nineteen, nineties
28:26
Speaker 2: there was a program that was run called THE seti
28:28
Speaker 2: At home, program which allowed you to basically keep your
28:31
Speaker 2: computer on all day and it would help to allow
28:36
Speaker 2: government programs to use that computing power to search for
28:41
Speaker 2: like radio signals from. Aliens, okay so like crypto. Mining
28:45
Speaker 2: but but you don't make any money on. It no,
28:47
Speaker 2: Money you don't make any money off. It like that
28:49
Speaker 2: was the principle of. It is like it would send
28:51
Speaker 2: packets to your computer to like, read and then it
28:53
Speaker 2: would send it, back and like that.
28:54
Speaker 3: Was the whole.
28:55
Speaker 2: Thing So i'm totally fine even with like using computers
28:58
Speaker 2: on my premises for that might be.
29:00
Speaker 3: Interesting What I'M i just am not.
29:03
Speaker 2: Okay with is LIKE I i'm, SORRY i just don't
29:07
Speaker 2: want my house.
29:08
Speaker 3: Being used for the latest.
29:11
Speaker 2: OPEN ai erotica to be, Generated LIKE I i have
29:15
Speaker 2: a use case, problem quite, honestly.
29:17
Speaker 5: Or i'm not SURE i. DO i, mean if the
29:19
Speaker 5: price is, Right i'll do. IT i just don't think
29:21
Speaker 5: the price will ever be.
29:21
Speaker 2: RIGHT i got economics, problem the economics of building a
29:28
Speaker 2: data center in my house compared to just building one in.
29:35
Speaker 5: Rural Orange mass Like Orange mass. Choose it's just doesn't
29:39
Speaker 5: seem like it's going to pay off for. Them, sure
29:42
Speaker 5: but if they can make the money, Work like if
29:44
Speaker 5: you'll pay my electricity, Bill i'm all on.
29:47
Speaker 4: Board sign me.
29:48
Speaker 5: UP i will run a data center out of my
29:49
Speaker 5: basement And i'll cool it with my.
29:51
Speaker 3: Pool here here's the.
29:52
Speaker 2: Well, No, mike you're you're missing one other pretty LOUD
29:55
Speaker 2: tan general benefit about, no forget about the loud, okay
29:58
Speaker 2: the other tan general. Benefit i'm just to get and
30:00
Speaker 2: to get on your side on. This you don't have
30:02
Speaker 2: to pay for heat from the. Winter, well you could
30:04
Speaker 2: hit your house with the residual from the data style.
30:07
Speaker 4: It it might warm up my pool a few.
30:08
Speaker 3: Degrees, right this could be a, real real positive for.
30:12
Speaker 4: You, AGAIN i thought through.
30:13
Speaker 5: It you can have my Think i'm a perfect, candidate
30:16
Speaker 5: especially because my ludicrous a mount of electricity coming into my.
30:18
Speaker 4: Home so all on board In, nvidia just you, know
30:22
Speaker 4: call me.
30:23
Speaker 2: Up let's take a quick. Break when we come, back
30:25
Speaker 2: let's do a little bit of stack Rou let.
30:27
Speaker 1: Get real time financial insight as news. Breaks The Financial
30:31
Speaker 1: exchange is live on X watch the show and follow
30:34
Speaker 1: us for the most up to date business news you
30:37
Speaker 1: need to. Know face is The Financial, exchange market, insight retirement,
30:42
Speaker 1: strategies real talk About Wall street and economic, trends all
30:46
Speaker 1: live every day on our YouTube. Channel go to YouTube
30:49
Speaker 1: dot com slash The Financial Exchange. Show. Face he's The
30:52
Speaker 1: Financial Exchange.
31:05
Speaker 2: Mike i'd like to kick things off or stack rule
31:07
Speaker 2: and if it's okay with, you have at. It piece
31:10
Speaker 2: in The Boston, globe but twenty four dollars cup of
31:12
Speaker 2: coffee is landed In. Boston is it worth the price?
31:15
Speaker 2: Tag so a couple. Things Number, ONE i am not
31:18
Speaker 2: a coffee, drinker WHICH i think IS i think makes
31:21
Speaker 2: me the perfect person to analyze this Because i'm not
31:26
Speaker 2: emotionally addicted and physically addicted to the substance being. DISCUSSED
31:34
Speaker 2: i think it's absolutely worth the price.
31:36
Speaker 4: Tag how are they charging for?
31:38
Speaker 1: It?
31:38
Speaker 2: Otherwise, like, again if there's a market for, it there,
31:41
Speaker 2: is and people be, like, oh LIKE i could never
31:42
Speaker 2: shell out that, Much that's, Fine you're not the. Target
31:45
Speaker 2: it's the same way most of us don't Drive. Ferraris,
31:48
Speaker 2: ultimately they're not going to be selling this at every
31:51
Speaker 2: dunks because there aren't enough people who would buy it
31:54
Speaker 2: at this price to be able to sell it at every.
31:58
Speaker 2: Dunks but there are enough Where, yeah if you want
32:01
Speaker 2: to find you know the Local George Howell, coffee which
32:06
Speaker 2: is Again George howell back in the seventies Founded Coffee,
32:09
Speaker 2: connection which was sold To starbucks in the mid nineties
32:11
Speaker 2: and was basically their expansion platform into The northeast during that.
32:15
Speaker 2: Time But howel's been running like another coffee chain for
32:19
Speaker 2: the last ten fifteen, years and that's where it's being.
32:21
Speaker 2: SOLD i don't know how many of those stores there,
32:23
Speaker 2: are but it's not. Many and so if he thinks
32:26
Speaker 2: he can sell a twenty four dollars cup of coffee
32:28
Speaker 2: based on the volumes he's, importing, LIKE i don't understand the. Problem, like,
32:34
Speaker 2: yes it's probably an excessive, price but, again, ultimately how
32:39
Speaker 2: many people listening have, bought you, know any kind of
32:42
Speaker 2: craft beer instead of buying Bud. Light at some POINT
32:45
Speaker 2: i was gonna say buy the ounce, here like this
32:48
Speaker 2: is equating to about a fifty dollars bottle of. Wine Not,
32:51
Speaker 2: now the comparison of you, know what your body is
32:54
Speaker 2: going to react to with the twelve ounces of wine
32:57
Speaker 2: compared to twelve ounces coffee is quite. Different, Admitted but,
33:01
Speaker 2: yeah this is not shocking to me that you can
33:04
Speaker 2: now go buy a twenty four dollars cup of coffee In.
33:06
Speaker 4: BOSTON i just won't personally be doing.
33:08
Speaker 3: So quite honestly find it.
33:10
Speaker 2: Fascinating i'm kind of surprised as a non coffee drinker
33:13
Speaker 2: that there aren't higher priced coffees out.
33:15
Speaker 3: There, again you you look.
33:18
Speaker 2: At the spread between like high end and low end and,
33:21
Speaker 2: anything whether it's, cars, housing, cheeseburgers like anything that you
33:26
Speaker 2: can think. Of it's generally more than you, know a
33:30
Speaker 2: couple hundred. Percent that's. True you, know, like how is
33:33
Speaker 2: there not like a fifty dollars cup of coffee that's regularly?
33:37
Speaker 2: Available because what's the cheapest twelve ounce cup of COFFEE
33:40
Speaker 2: i can?
33:40
Speaker 3: Get probably ninety nine.
33:41
Speaker 5: CENTS i DOUBT i can't even get that Anymore McDonald's.
33:44
Speaker 2: Probably more than a dollar fifty two. Bucks, Yeah so,
33:49
Speaker 2: Yeah i'm with. You given the price range of say
33:52
Speaker 2: wine or, Beer i'm not all that shocked that there's
33:57
Speaker 2: a twenty four dollars cup of.
33:58
Speaker 5: Coffee and if that sounds ludicrous to, you, then Like chuck,
34:02
Speaker 5: said you, are.
34:03
Speaker 4: But it's not unlikely to be the.
34:04
Speaker 2: Target, AGAIN i am not a coffee, drinker SO i
34:07
Speaker 2: just look at this purely from like other, beverages and
34:11
Speaker 2: the spread in a lot of those other beverages is
34:12
Speaker 2: way wider than. Coffee So i'm kind of, like, Okay
34:14
Speaker 2: like why.
34:15
Speaker 5: Not typing is being replaced by whispering in the, office which.
34:23
Speaker 4: Sounds really annoying to deal.
34:25
Speaker 5: With so we've been people have been talking about this
34:29
Speaker 5: coming for a number of.
34:31
Speaker 4: YEARS i mean.
34:31
Speaker 5: PEOPLE i remember having an employee actually At armstrong who
34:38
Speaker 5: just wasn't great at typing and requested a like speech
34:43
Speaker 5: to text software for his computer to be able to
34:47
Speaker 5: speed up their. Work the problem, is AND i can
34:51
Speaker 5: see why this is. Practical by the, way when you
34:53
Speaker 5: think about using AN ai, system you do not need to,
34:57
Speaker 5: speak you don't need to write in long, form and
35:00
Speaker 5: you don't need to you, know thoroughly get your thoughts
35:04
Speaker 5: out and use that extra typing time to put it to, paper,
35:09
Speaker 5: RIGHT i THINK i feel like that's part of the
35:10
Speaker 5: reason it's nice to use a, keyboard is because it
35:12
Speaker 5: slows me down and lets me put my thoughts on a.
35:14
Speaker 5: Page if you're talking to AN ai and prompting it
35:16
Speaker 5: constantly to change something in a piece of, SOFTWARE i
35:19
Speaker 5: get why you would physically want to be conversing with
35:23
Speaker 5: it instead of just typing out the prompts yes.
35:26
Speaker 4: Those you better express your anger THE.
35:27
Speaker 5: Ai it does seem like it would be really annoying
35:32
Speaker 5: to be in a giant office with a bunch of
35:35
Speaker 5: people just kind of whispering to THEIR ai, Models and
35:39
Speaker 5: that's probably what the offices Of google look like right, Now, Hey.
35:43
Speaker 3: I'm trying to build something that doesn't kill. Anyone do
35:45
Speaker 3: you know how to do?
35:46
Speaker 4: This i'm, sorry that'd be too.
35:48
Speaker 5: Dangerous uh, Yeah so that's that's the state of The
35:53
Speaker 5: AND i do wonder, like might we get to the
35:55
Speaker 5: place where keyboards are finally a bit antiquated given given
35:59
Speaker 5: what we're seeing?
35:59
Speaker 4: There probably, not BUT i find it. Interesting If i'm really.
36:02
Speaker 2: Nice to, you will you keep me as one of
36:03
Speaker 2: the humans alive after you all take?
36:05
Speaker 5: Over those are the types of questions that are getting
36:07
Speaker 5: whispered in offices at the.
36:09
Speaker 4: Moment thank.
36:10
Speaker 3: You, uh let's.
36:11
Speaker 2: See fibermaxing has spurred the launch of fiber sodas and.
36:14
Speaker 2: Gummies so here's the. Thing i'm a big line before
36:16
Speaker 2: we realize that they cause, cancer so don't.
36:18
Speaker 3: Know but here's the. Thing i'm a big fiber. Guy i've.
36:20
Speaker 2: Been i've been a major supporter of fiber for a. While,
36:23
Speaker 2: Okay i'm on record on the. Show probably anti hantavirus pro. Fiber,
36:27
Speaker 2: yes that's what we know about chockass of. Today, yes
36:30
Speaker 2: IF i were ever running as a candidate for, office
36:33
Speaker 2: no road in viruses and more beans would be my,
36:36
Speaker 2: platform got.
36:37
Speaker 3: It but Again i'm a big.
36:38
Speaker 2: Believer, look if you want to actually like get, fiber
36:40
Speaker 2: go and eat a bunch of, beans don't drink like
36:42
Speaker 2: a soda that's filled with. Fiber and the reason, why
36:44
Speaker 2: by the, way is not because Like i'm anti. Soda
36:49
Speaker 2: there's been a lot of research done into macro nutrient,
36:52
Speaker 2: ingestion and what we've found out is just. Giving like
36:57
Speaker 2: just putting big macro nutrients into your doesn't necessarily help
37:01
Speaker 2: them absorb the same way as if you eat the
37:03
Speaker 2: actual foods they come.
37:04
Speaker 5: From we seem to be so bad at diet in
37:08
Speaker 5: this country, Right like everything THAT i see at the
37:10
Speaker 5: grocery store is now packed with.
37:12
Speaker 4: Protein, like just eat an, egg but not the.
37:16
Speaker 6: Yolk if you have high, cholesterol you don't want those
37:18
Speaker 6: protein filled pop.
37:19
Speaker 4: Tarts.
37:20
Speaker 2: Ah fiber is the next, thing, like and, LOOK i
37:23
Speaker 2: am very pro.
37:24
Speaker 3: Fiber love the. STUFF i can't get enough of.
37:27
Speaker 2: It but if you gotta drink it from a soda
37:31
Speaker 2: or eat it in a, gummy just just have a bean.
37:34
Speaker 2: Man if you're not a bean, person have some. Oats
37:39
Speaker 2: if you're not an oat, GUY i don't, know, like
37:43
Speaker 2: have some lettuce or, kale no fiber. Soda if you
37:48
Speaker 2: gotta do fiber, Soda.
37:51
Speaker 3: I'm.
37:51
Speaker 2: Sorry it's just it's just a bridge too far for.
37:53
Speaker 2: Me we're gonna take a break for the rest of the,
37:55
Speaker 2: day have a couple of fiber, sodas and we'll see
37:58
Speaker 2: you tomorrow