Latest / The President's Daily Brief / October 20th, 2026: Trump–Zelensky Rift Deepens & Iran Tightens Hold Over Hormuz

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October 20th, 2026: Trump–Zelensky Rift Deepens & Iran Tightens Hold Over Hormuz · The President's Daily Brief

0:13
It's Tuesday,
0:13
the 20th of October.
0:15
Welcome to the President's Daily Brief.
0:17
I'm Mike Baker,
0:18
your eyes and ears on the world stage.
0:21
Hi.
0:22
Let's get briefed.
0:23
First up,
0:24
tension between Washington and Kiev continues to rise
0:28
as President Zelensky accuses the US
0:30
of temporarily interrupting critical intelligence sharing.
0:34
The Trump administration denies the allegation,
0:36
while President Trump escalates his criticism
0:39
of Ukraine's handling of the war.
0:42
Well,
0:42
they were invaded,
0:44
so there's that.
0:45
Later in the show,
0:46
speaking of who's responsible for rising fuel prices,
0:50
Iran is tightening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz,
0:53
with ships coming under attack and
0:55
some 6000 sailors stranded on the waterway.
0:58
The Iranian regime is also reviving demands
1:01
that President Trump has previously rejected.
1:04
Plus,
1:05
Russian President Vladimir Putin is proposing talks
1:08
with President Trump and China's Xi Jinping.
1:11
To end the war in Ukraine.
1:12
Well,
1:12
how magnanimous of him,
1:14
while saying that Ukraine does not need a seat at the negotiating table.
1:18
Well,
1:19
now there's a thought.
1:20
Let's make a deal with America's two main adversaries
1:23
without the invaded country being involved.
1:25
It seems logical.
1:26
I mean,
1:27
well,
1:27
it seems logical from Putin and Xi Jinping's perspective.
1:31
And in today's Back of the Brief,
1:32
President Trump backs Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for another term,
1:37
warning that America would be left to finish the war against Iran alone
1:41
if voters replace him.
1:43
But will Trump's endorsement help Netanyahu
1:46
secure the support he needs
1:48
to stay in power?
1:50
But first,
1:51
today's PDB spotlight.
1:53
Russia has launched another major assault on Ukraine's energy infrastructure,
1:58
and President Zelensky says his country once again
2:00
received no advance warning from Western intelligence partners.
2:04
The latest attack comes as relations between
2:07
Washington and Kiev continue to deteriorate,
2:09
with the two governments now openly contradicting each other
2:13
over intelligence sharing,
2:14
military communications,
2:16
and Ukraine strikes against Russian energy facilities.
2:19
According to the Associated Press,
2:21
Russian forces targeted Ukraine early Monday
2:24
with ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones,
2:26
striking 28 substations and other critical energy facilities.
2:31
More than half a million people were left without electricity,
2:34
heat,
2:35
or running water.
2:36
Russia also fired 16 ballistic missiles at Kiev
2:39
and the surrounding region.
2:41
Ukrainian officials say they've received no warning
2:44
ahead of the first wave of attacks,
2:45
while intelligence about a second wave arrived
2:48
too late to activate air raid sirens.
2:51
Now that raises serious concerns for Kiev,
2:54
which has relied heavily on American intelligence
2:57
to detect incoming Russian ballistic missiles.
3:00
But Washington disputes the notion
3:02
that the US is intentionally withholding critical intelligence.
3:06
During an interview on Sunday,
3:07
the Ukrainian president claimed US intelligence sharing had been interrupted
3:12
before subsequently being restored.
3:14
Secretary of State Marco Rubio,
3:16
however,
3:16
flatly rejected that claim Monday,
3:19
telling reporters in Uzbekistan,
3:21
quote,
3:21
I don't know where he's getting these things or
3:23
why he's saying these things to the press,
3:25
end quote.
3:26
Rubio insisted there had been no interruption or pause in intelligence sharing
3:30
and said Zelensky should instead focus his attention on diplomacy,
3:36
but Rubio also acknowledged that,
3:38
oh,
3:38
here we go,
3:39
a software problem had affected Ukraine's
3:41
early warning system several nights earlier,
3:44
saying US European Command was investigating.
3:47
However,
3:47
he said he didn't know what had happened
3:49
during Monday's attack.
3:51
And intelligence sharing isn't the only point of contention,
3:55
as we discussed on Friday's PDB.
3:57
Ukraine has also been dealing with restrictions on its satellite communications,
4:01
and the dispute over who imposed them
4:04
has only grown more contentious.
4:06
Zelensky says speed restrictions remain in place
4:09
on satellite terminals used by Ukrainian drones,
4:12
disrupting operations along the front lines.
4:15
Last week,
4:15
Reuters reported
4:16
that an order to restrict the service originated inside the White House,
4:21
citing American and Western officials.
4:24
But Rubio has denied that account,
4:26
insisting nobody at the White House ordered the slowdown.
4:29
He acknowledged the disruption occurred,
4:31
saying it just
4:33
sort of happened.
4:34
Oh well,
4:34
it just sort of happened,
4:36
but maintained that service had been restored.
4:38
Rubio also drew a distinction between SpaceX's commercial Starlink network
4:43
and its military-grade star shield system,
4:45
saying Ukraine
4:46
doesn't currently have access to StarShield.
4:50
Now that complicates the picture even further given that
4:52
previous reporting identified StarShield as the affected service,
4:57
and the conflicting explanations have now prompted Republican lawmakers,
5:01
including Congressman Mike Turner and Senator Kevin Kramer,
5:04
to call for a congressional investigation.
5:08
Meanwhile,
5:08
President Trump is escalating his criticism of Zelensky,
5:11
while defending his decision
5:13
to waive new sanctions on Russia and ease
5:16
restrictions on Russian diesel exports in a bid to
5:20
bring down fuel prices.
5:22
Trump argues that additional pressure on Moscow
5:25
could drive Vladimir Putin away from peace negotiations.
5:28
What?
5:29
Putin has not been anywhere near peace negotiations.
5:32
How are you going to drive him further away?
5:34
He's shown no signs of backing away from his maximalist demands
5:38
and continues to pound Ukraine ahead of the approaching winter.
5:42
Trump also doubled down on those accusations
5:44
Sunday in a lengthy truth social screed,
5:47
saying Zelensky is worsening global fuel shortages by
5:51
targeting Russian oil refineries.
5:53
Trump tore into Zelensky,
5:55
accusing the Ukrainian leader of not
5:57
caring about the economic consequences of attacks
6:00
and claiming he doesn't want to end this war and probably never did,
6:04
end quote.
6:05
He added that in his view,
6:07
Zelensky's refusal to make a deal with Putin
6:10
in past years had left Ukraine in shambles.
6:14
Secretary Rubio,
6:16
although using more diplomatic language,
6:18
echoed Trump's sentiments and remarks over the weekend,
6:21
urging Zelensky to bring an end to the war.
6:24
You know,
6:24
he is the invaded party,
6:26
while also urging Russia to do the same.
6:28
Oh,
6:28
well,
6:28
that's good.
6:29
Rubio also raised another concern,
6:31
saying recent Ukrainian attacks in the Black
6:33
Sea have struck vessels carrying American-owned oil.
6:36
He emphasized that he doesn't believe
6:38
Ukraine deliberately targeted those American interests,
6:40
but called them frustrating incidents
6:42
that are exacerbating the global energy crisis.
6:46
Zelensky meanwhile insists Ukraine has supported
6:48
every effort to negotiate a ceasefire,
6:51
accusing Russia of prolonging the conflict and
6:54
treating peace negotiations as a parody,
6:57
while Moscow continues its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure
7:01
as winter approaches.
7:03
All of this,
7:03
of course,
7:04
well,
7:04
here's a statement of the obvious,
7:06
leaves Zelensky and his government in an increasingly difficult position.
7:10
Russia continues attacking Ukraine's power grid.
7:13
Washington is pressing Zelensky to halt strikes against Russian energy targets
7:17
and accept a negotiated settlement,
7:19
all while questions mount over the
7:21
reliability of the intelligence and communications support
7:25
that Ukraine needs to defend itself.
7:27
For Zelensky,
7:28
the immediate challenge is,
7:29
of course,
7:30
protecting Ukrainian cities
7:32
from continuous waves of Russian attacks,
7:35
while the continuous waves of verbal attacks from President Trump
7:38
aren't helping.
7:40
The White House appears to have picked a side,
7:42
and unfortunately for Ukraine,
7:44
that appears to be Putin's side.
7:46
Now,
7:46
it's not unreasonable to assess
7:48
that Trump's overall frustration with rising fuel prices
7:52
stemming from the US conflict with Iran,
7:55
has left him looking for a scapegoat.
7:57
And since he doesn't seem inclined to blame Moscow for Putin's war,
8:00
he seems increasingly comfortable blaming Ukraine for being invaded,
8:04
refusing to give in to Putin's demands,
8:06
and attacking Russia's primary means of funding the Kremlin's war machine.
8:11
Whether or not the White House,
8:12
as Reuters reported,
8:14
did withhold intelligence from Kiev,
8:16
and whether the US government disrupted Starlink or StarShields service,
8:20
it does appear
8:21
that Trump believes the way to end Putin's invasion
8:24
is to pursue a policy of appeasement towards the Kremlin.
8:28
That sound you hear in the distance
8:30
is Putin
8:31
patting himself on the back.
8:33
Alright,
8:34
coming up next,
8:35
Iran warns that it has quote unfinished jobs
8:38
as attacks mount in the Strait of Hormuz,
8:41
and Putin is proposing trilateral talks
8:44
with President Trump and China's Xi Jinping
8:46
to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.
8:48
Well,
8:48
that's not too transparent.
8:50
I'll be right back.
8:53
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Welcome back to the PDB
10:04
in the Strait of Hormuz.
10:05
Thousands of sailors remain trapped in and around the waterway as Iran
10:09
renews demands for concessions from President Trump
10:13
before they'll reopen the passage.
10:15
Meanwhile,
10:16
locals are searching the waterway for booty after
10:18
a cargo ship sunk while transiting the strait,
10:21
and that's the first time I've ever used the word booty on the PDB.
10:25
The sunken vessel was traveling from Karachi,
10:27
Pakistan to the United Arab Emirates when
10:30
it reportedly struck a mine last Wednesday,
10:32
according to Iranian state television.
10:34
All 21 crew members escaped without injuries,
10:37
but
10:37
approximately 2500 containers went down with the ship.
10:42
Regime officials have ordered fishermen and others to leave the cargo alone,
10:46
declaring it to be state booty.
10:48
Out in the shipping lanes,
10:49
the Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to issue their now standard warning
10:53
ships crossing without its permission risk being attacked.
10:57
The IRGC says that threat also applies to vessels
11:00
with their tracking transponders switched off.
11:03
Now many recent attacks have occurred near Oman's
11:06
coast along a route that Tehran considers unauthorized.
11:10
According to the Financial Times,
11:12
Iran has attacked at least 2 dozen container ships in roughly 2 weeks
11:16
using drones,
11:17
naval mines,
11:17
and rocket-propelled grenades fired from small boats.
11:21
Those attacks continued through this weekend.
11:24
On Saturday,
11:24
the IRGC claimed strikes on 2 oil tankers,
11:28
including a supertanker carrying approximately 2 million barrels of oil.
11:32
On Sunday,
11:33
a commercial vessel was struck by an RPG fired from a small boat
11:37
approximately 75 miles northeast of the Saudi port of Jubail.
11:41
A third tanker was reportedly struck later that day.
11:44
The precise number of ships hit by mines or direct IRGC fire remains disputed.
11:50
But the danger has been serious enough that
11:52
the Secretary General of the International Maritime Organization
11:56
is advising ships to stay put
11:58
until their safety can be guaranteed.
12:00
He told Fox News that roughly 6000 sailors remain trapped
12:03
under a double blockade,
12:05
warning seafarers
12:07
have continued to perish in these attacks.
12:10
As of the 9th of October,
12:12
the International Maritime Organization had confirmed
12:14
100 maritime incidents across the region,
12:18
with 24 sailors killed since fighting began
12:21
in late February.
12:23
The disruption is also choking traffic through a vital
12:25
route for Gulf oil and natural gas exports.
12:29
UK maritime authorities recorded just 254 transits during
12:33
the week ending the 14th of October.
12:36
It's approximately 70% below normal pre-conflict levels.
12:40
Brent crude
12:41
was trading close to $108 a barrel
12:44
by Monday morning.
12:46
Now,
12:46
the Iranian regime says that it could reopen the passage
12:49
within days if Washington accepts its September ceasefire proposal.
12:54
Under that 7 day Iranian regime plan,
12:58
the US would release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets,
13:01
waive sanctions on Iranian oil,
13:04
and lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports.
13:07
The strait would reopen
13:08
only on the final day of that 7 day plan.
13:11
In other words,
13:12
the US would surrender substantial economic leverage
13:15
before the regime delivered safe passage through the waterway.
13:20
Now Trump rejected that proposal when it was first presented,
13:23
and according to the Wall Street Journal,
13:25
American officials said he doubted Iran would honor its commitments.
13:28
Well,
13:28
there you go.
13:30
There's been no indication that Washington will accept the renewed offer,
13:33
and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragi is accompanying that offer with a warning
13:38
against renewed American strikes.
13:40
In a message posted to X,
13:42
he wrote,
13:42
quote,
13:43
Last time you wanted to finish the job,
13:45
Iran emerged even stronger.
13:48
But be careful,
13:49
we have unfinished jobs too,
13:51
end quote.
13:52
So there,
13:53
we also have unfinished jobs.
13:55
Trump has insisted that Iran's nuclear stockpile must be addressed
14:00
before he backs away from the threat of renewed strikes.
14:03
Now Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has offered to mediate.
14:07
Well,
14:07
that's because Russia's all about peacemaking,
14:09
isn't it?
14:10
Even traveling to Iran on Monday with the proposal that Moscow
14:14
is seeking to take possession
14:15
of Iran's highly enriched uranium.
14:19
Hm.
14:19
Alright,
14:20
I want to turn back to the war in Ukraine,
14:22
where Russian President Putin is proposing trilateral
14:26
talks with President Trump and China's Xi Jinping
14:28
to discuss
14:29
ending Putin's war.
14:31
And that might sound like a diplomatic opening,
14:34
until you realize that Putin does not want Ukraine at the table.
14:37
His idea,
14:38
apparently,
14:39
is just to discuss carving up Ukraine with Trump and Xi Jinping.
14:44
No invite for Kiev.
14:45
An exclusive report from the Wall Street Journal reveals that Putin raised
14:48
the proposal during his October 9th phone call with President Trump.
14:53
A former Russian intelligence officer briefed on that conversation
14:57
told the Journal that Moscow wants the leaders to meet next month in China,
15:01
and the Kremlin already has a setting in mind.
15:04
That would be the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit
15:07
currently scheduled for the 18th and 19th of November in Shenzhen.
15:12
Now Russian officials have approached Beijing through diplomatic channels,
15:16
and Chinese officials have indicated
15:18
that they wouldn't object if Trump agrees.
15:20
Reportedly,
15:21
President Trump has not committed to the meeting.
15:24
A senior American official told the Journal
15:26
that Trump could be receptive,
15:27
given his determination
15:29
to negotiate an end to the war,
15:31
and given his apparent belief
15:32
that Putin makes a better negotiating partner than Zelensky.
15:36
Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged
15:38
Monday that discussions were underway.
15:41
Speaking to reporters,
15:42
he said,
15:42
quote,
15:43
I think there's been talks of a meeting,
15:44
but added that he didn't believe anything
15:46
had been finalized.
15:48
The Kremlin also says the meeting and its agenda remain unresolved.
15:52
For Kiev,
15:53
though,
15:53
the proposal,
15:54
as you might suspect,
15:55
already raises a serious problem,
15:57
well,
15:57
the lack of an invite.
15:58
Ukraine's foreign minister rejected the idea Monday,
16:01
warning that a summit without his government would encourage Putin
16:05
to continue his war.
16:06
As he put it,
16:07
quote,
16:07
As long as Putin continues this terror,
16:10
there should be no place for him at any table,
16:12
end quote.
16:13
And Ukraine wouldn't be the only one left out.
16:16
European leaders would also be absent,
16:18
which suits Moscow's purposes,
16:20
of course.
16:21
The Journal reports that the Kremlin
16:23
sees Europe as its main obstacle to securing the outcome that it wants in Ukraine.
16:29
So the guest list is of course part of Putin's strategy.
16:32
The format would give him something he
16:34
has sought since entering the Kremlin in 2000,
16:37
and that would be a place alongside the world's dominant powers.
16:41
The former Russian intelligence officer quoted earlier says Putin
16:44
has something resembling a second Yalta conference in mind.
16:48
And for a little context,
16:49
that original conference took place back in February
16:52
of 1945.
16:54
I remember it well.
16:55
President Franklin Roosevelt,
16:57
British Prime Minister Winston Churchill,
16:58
and Soviet leader Joseph Stalin
17:01
discussed Europe's post-war future,
17:03
helping shape the settlement
17:04
that preceded its Cold War division.
17:07
The source says Putin sees talks with Trump and Xi
17:10
as a chance to pursue a similar arrangement today
17:13
with the major powers dividing the world into spheres of influence.
17:17
Oh good.
17:19
Putin has proposed similar meetings in the past,
17:21
and now,
17:22
with Washington easing economic pressure on Moscow,
17:25
while increasingly blaming Zelensky
17:27
for everything from the price of fuel to the
17:30
box office failure of Tom Cruise's latest movie.
17:33
Putin undoubtedly sees an opening to push for negotiations on his preferred terms.
17:39
But securing Trump's participation is only part of the equation.
17:42
Xi also has to weigh what hosting this meeting would mean for China.
17:47
Bringing the American and Russian presidents together on Chinese soil
17:50
would give Beijing a chance to present itself as a major diplomatic power broker.
17:56
From Xi's perspective,
17:57
that's an opportunity,
17:59
but it does come with complications.
18:01
Chinese officials reportedly worry that
18:02
Ukraine negotiations could overshadow APEC,
18:05
the summit.
18:07
Which they want to use to showcase
18:09
China's influence across the Asia-Pacific region.
18:13
All right.
18:13
Coming up in the back of the brief,
18:15
President Trump weighs in on Israel's election
18:18
with a warning about the unfinished fight against Iran.
18:21
We'll look at why he says Netanyahu is the partner that America needs
18:25
and the political hurdles that his ally faces to remain in power.
18:29
More on that
18:30
when we come back.
18:32
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21:29
give your hair and skin
21:30
the upgrade that they deserve.
21:34
In today's back of the brief,
21:35
President Trump is urging Israeli voters to
21:38
keep Prime Minister Netanyahu in power,
21:41
warning that without his longtime ally,
21:44
America could be left to finish the job against Iran alone.
21:47
In a message posted to Truth Social on Sunday,
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Trump gave Netanyahu and his Likud party,
21:53
quote,
21:54
complete and total endorsement ahead
21:55
of Israel's October twenty-seventh elections.
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Now this was more than a president putting in a good word for an ally.
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Trump also told Israeli voters what he believes could happen if they replace him.
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Quote,
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If Israel has the wrong leader,
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which would be anyone other than Bibi,
22:12
America will have to do this work ourselves,
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and I'm not inclined to do so,
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end quote.
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Now,
22:18
the work he's referring to
22:20
is the confrontation with Iran.
22:22
In the same message,
22:23
in somewhat of a contradiction,
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Trump warned that unless Tehran changes its behavior,
22:28
quote,
22:29
we will soon finish the job,
22:31
end quote.
22:31
I mean,
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unless he's
22:33
not inclined to do so.
22:34
So there are two audiences here.
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The Iranian regime is being told that America is prepared to act again,
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while Israeli voters are being told that Trump
22:42
wants Netanyahu beside him if that becomes necessary.
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And that's notable because
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the two leaders have not always agreed on how best to proceed with this conflict.
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But Trump has made clear who he wants leading Israel.
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He called Netanyahu a great warrior and a partner for peace,
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praising his ability to withstand political opposition,
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military conflict,
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and international scrutiny.
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Trump wrote,
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quote,
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Normal men or women in such situations would have wilted under the pressure,
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but Bibi did not wilt.
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He actually got stronger,
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end quote.
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He also made clear what America expects from its ally.
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He said,
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quote,
23:20
This is the kind of partner that the US is demanding of Israel,
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a country for which it has done so much,
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end quote.
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Netanyahu thanked Trump on X for his support in their joint work,
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adding,
23:31
together we will complete the mission.
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It's worth noting that Israelis do not directly elect their prime minister.
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They vote for party lists competing for seats in the Knesset.
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That's Israel's 120 member parliament.
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Seats are distributed proportionally among parties,
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receiving at least 3.25% of the national vote.
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So you can think of the Knesset as Israel's equivalent of Congress,
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but with only one chamber.
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Now imagine the parties in Congress negotiating
24:00
over who would lead the executive branch.
24:02
How dysfunctional could that be?
24:04
That roughly explains the process.
24:06
Once the votes are counted,
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Israel's president,
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Isaac Herzog consults with party representatives
24:13
and assigns a Knesset member the task of forming a government,
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generally choosing whoever appears best positioned
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to assemble enough support.
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The person he selects
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then has to persuade other parties
24:25
to join a coalition.
24:26
Are you following me on all this?
24:28
Essentially an alliance that agrees to govern together.
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That proposed government
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then goes before the Knesset
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for a vote of confidence,
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which brings us to Netanyahu's target.
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That would be 61 seats,
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a majority.
24:41
A government can technically win that
24:42
initial confidence vote with fewer supporters
24:45
if they outnumber those opposed,
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but 61 is the central goal.
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Recent projections indicate just how difficult
24:52
this process could be for Netanyahu.
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Likud is forecast to win roughly 18 to 22 seats,
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including the
24:59
other right wing and religious parties aligned with Netanyahu.
25:03
His bloc is projected to hold approximately 49 to 51 seats.
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That leaves it roughly 10 to 12 seats short of a majority.
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So even if Laikud finishes first,
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Netanyahu could still lack the partners he needs to govern.
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Post-election negotiations could change those alliances,
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of course,
25:21
but smaller parties
25:23
could ultimately determine
25:24
whether he stays in office.
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And that my friends,
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is the president's daily Brief for Tuesday,
25:30
the 20th of October.
25:32
Now,
25:32
if you have any questions or comments,
25:33
please reach out to me at PDB@hefirsttv.com.
25:38
I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB
25:41
afternoon bulletin.
25:42
Until then,
25:43
stay informed,
25:44
stay safe,
25:45
stay cool.