Latest / Closing Market Report / Sep 22 | Closing Market Report
Transcript
- cmr260922 The September 22, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason during a fall fund drive for Illinois Public Media, covers commodity markets, global agribusiness supply chains, and regional weather forecasts. Make your gift today in Support of Agriculture @ willgive.org or 217-244-9455 Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing analyzes slight declines in corn and soybean futures, discusses producer storage costs, and assesses potential market impacts from an anticipated meeting between President Trump and President Xi. Gary Schnitkey from the University of Illinois shares insights from his global agribusiness management class, highlighting the differences between protein-driven agricultural demand in developing nations like China and the growing preference for specialized, verified non-commodity foods in developed countries. Finally, meteorologist Don Day provides a weather update for the US Corn Belt, forecasting dry conditions in the eastern states and heavy rainfall moving into the western plains. 00:54 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com 09:00 ACE 435 - Global Agribusiness Management 21:56 Ag Weather with Don Day, DayWeather.com --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 22nd day of September 2026. I am Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. We are in the midst of our fall fund drive, so get ready to dial this number: 217–244–9455. You can get a head start by the way at 217-BIG-WILL if you would like to pledge your support right now, or you can go online to willgive.org. Today we are going to talk with Naomi Blohm. She is with Total Farm Marketing, speaking about the marketplace. We will hear from Gary Schnitkey. We are actually going to go to an upper-level class that he teaches about global supply chain management, and then we will turn our attention to the weather forecast with Don Day on this Tuesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. 00:54 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com Todd Gleason: In Chicago at the CME Group, corn futures finished about six cents lower, and soybeans were down two to three cents. Here to talk about these numbers is Naomi Blohm. She is at totalfarmmarketing.com. Hi Naomi, thanks for being with us. Naomi Blohm: Yes, thank you for having me. Todd Gleason: By the way, if you have not dialed yet, the number is 217–244–9455. Naomi, we are in the middle of our fund drive, but we do want to know what happened in Chicago. Tell me about the trade for the day. Naomi Blohm: It definitely felt a little bit like a turnaround Tuesday after the big rally we had yesterday. Yesterday, corn and soybean prices were able to trade up to short-term resistance levels on hopes that China is going to come in and buy a massive amount of agricultural products later this week when President Trump and President Xi meet in Washington, D.C.. Without any fresh bullish news today, there was just a little bit of back-and-fill price action as we tread water and bide our time until we get into that meeting on Thursday. Todd Gleason: How hopeful should producers be as it relates to this meeting? I am thinking back to the President’s visit to China when the recommendation coming out was an expectation of $17 billion, along with confirming 25 million metric tons of soybeans a year. Do you think that is where they will be, or will there be more? Naomi Blohm: It would be nice if they confirmed the hopes from May first. Remember, China had said they would buy 25 million metric tons of US soybeans, and they have purchased about half of that. Regarding the $17 billion worth of US ag products, it is estimated that about four to five billion has been purchased in that dollar amount, leaving a lot of room where they could still come in and buy product. The question for each commodity—whether corn, sorghum, wheat, beef, or dairy—is how much of that potential export demand is already factored into the balance sheet versus understanding what new demand would exist above and beyond current USDA projections. We want to see specific numbers in terms of export quantity rather than just a nice dollar amount, because without specifics, it is hard for the market to adjust on the supply and demand side. Otherwise, we will keep an eye on continuations and escalations in the Middle East. There is talk today that President Trump and Iran met on the sidelines of the UN meeting, offering hope that things can be worked out. We are also keeping an eye on the Black Sea. There are so many balls in the air right now for agriculture this week that all must be monitored. Todd Gleason: Let’s move on to things we know more about. How far along are producers as it relates to the beginning of harvest, and how do the crops feel to them? Naomi Blohm: It had been a rainy weekend, but overall, we are probably getting closer to 15% harvested nationwide. Things just need to dry out a bit more, and many producers are telling me that by late next week they ought to really be able to get going with gusto. We aren’t behind yet based on weekly crop progress ratings; we are near or slightly ahead of the five-year averages, but this recent rain definitely kept producers out of the fields. We are curious if we will see harvest pressure as grain comes into town. A lot of producers are asking if they should be pricing now and selling it, doing the math regarding whether it pays to put it into storage, how much storage actually costs, and how much the market would have to rally down the road to offset those costs. Producers are highly focused on marketing right now. Todd Gleason: We will ask you about your recommendations in just a moment, but first, I want to remind farmers to take this opportunity to support us. You listen to Naomi Blohm and all the rest of the analysts and weather folks all week long, and we are hopeful it makes a difference in your marketing plans. If it does, go to willgive.org or dial 217–244–9455. Make your pledge of financial support today. I like the $120 level, but any amount is fine. The important thing is that the ag audience steps up. When speaking to the person on the phone, tell them it is in support of agriculture, or place that in the comments section at willgive.org. Becoming a sustainer with a recurring gift is incredibly important. Thank you for making that gift, and thank you, Naomi, for volunteering your time to help our producers. What kind of advice have you been giving producers when they call in? Naomi Blohm: We are running down a list and focusing on understanding cash flow needs for the next few months, which helps producers decide whether to price now at harvest or store. You have to consider what bills need to be paid and how higher fuel costs impact your spreadsheets. Then, look at the specific costs of storage, whether in your bins at home or in town at an elevator. You must account for nitty-gritty details like interest, insurance, electricity, commercial storage costs, delayed price charges, and potential shrink charges. All those components help you decide about pricing now or later. You also have to understand local cash basis levels. If you are storing corn, you are hoping not only for higher futures prices but also for your cash basis to strengthen. You need to ask if there is carry in the market and if the market is paying you to store that corn. For some folks, we calculate the opportunity cost—asking if it is better to pay off bills instead and look at re-owning with a call option, which might be cheaper than storage costs and still offer upside potential if the market rallies into 2027. Ultimately, it boils down to doing the math for each farm family. Todd Gleason: Indeed it does. Thank you very much, Naomi. Naomi Blohm: Thank you. Todd Gleason: That is Naomi Blohm with totalfarmmarketing.com. Dial 217–244–9455 or go to willgive.org. Stay with me now because we are going to do something slightly different on the Closing Market Report. We are going to class. 09:00 ACE 435 - Global Agribusiness Management Todd Gleason: This time around, we are featuring a class that Gary Schnitkey teaches, ACE 435: Global Agribusiness Management. Gary Schnitkey: This is an upper-level undergraduate and graduate class where we discuss global agribusiness management, where food is produced, where it is moved, and the vital role of trade. We spend considerable time discussing two different types of food demands. The first, which heavily influences Illinois and Midwest agriculture, is the movement of commodities to developing countries, including China. As incomes grow in China and similar nations, they consume more meat, requiring feed. The US and Brazil produce this feed, which impacts the relative economics of both countries. The second dynamic is food demand in the developed world, like the US and Europe, where specific food characteristics dictate what we will grow in the future. Todd Gleason: What do you mean? How does it determine it, and why? Gary Schnitkey: In the US and Europe, consumers are highly concerned with food characteristics like health, safety, and the production process. Examples include organic, non-GMO, and sustainably produced food. When these characteristics become essential, commodity agriculture faces an issue because number two yellow corn is identical regardless of how it is produced. The challenge is transmitting what consumers want—and are willing to pay for—back through the food chain, which can lead to non-commodity agriculture. Non-GMO soybeans, many of which go to Japan, are a good example. Processes tailored to wealthy countries will likely become a growing concern. Todd Gleason: Those characteristics are hard to trace, and commodity agriculture often prefers mass production without guaranteeing specific traits in the final food product. Gary Schnitkey: One issue with producing for specialized markets is that segregating the commodity is inherently expensive. Furthermore, many processed foods cannot be physically tested for their specific traits. For example, while you can test seed for genetic modification to prove it is not organic, you cannot test a non-GMO variety to verify it was organically grown. When testing is impossible, consumer confidence in the system is crucial, and any challenges to that confidence can deeply impact sales. Todd Gleason: I noticed geography was not one of the characteristics you laid out. Gary Schnitkey: That seems increasingly important in the European Union and the United States. The President is considering a “raised in the US” label for beef, and country-of-origin labeling or locally grown tags are geographic indicators. The challenge is determining verification and defining what constitutes US production. For example, many feeder pigs are produced in Canada but finished in the US. Is that US-produced? It mirrors the issue with automobiles regarding assembly versus parts sourcing. It is a definitional issue that adds cost and requires rigorous verification. Todd Gleason: Regarding developing countries, you still place China in that category. What are the unique characteristics there? Gary Schnitkey: It is important to remember that China’s population is not growing; income growth, not population growth, drove the massive increase in soybean exports. As the Chinese became wealthier, their diets shifted from carbohydrates to protein, largely pork due to heritage. Poultry was second, with beef lagging behind. As meat consumption rose, China lacked the landmass to produce sufficient feed and made a deliberate decision to import soybeans over corn. Soybeans are more valuable per bushel than corn, making shipping relatively cheaper, and they provide more protein per kernel. That dynamic drove agricultural growth from 1995 onward. Until about 2015, global agriculture grew under a goal of free trade. The world, not just the Trump administration, has largely moved away from free trade toward a more mercantilist environment. We built massive global trade flows that are now being disrupted by tariffs and geopolitical events like the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Iran tensions, and COVID. Supply chain disruptions ultimately refer to barriers in global trade. Todd Gleason: Thank you. Gary Schnitkey: You are welcome, Todd. Todd Gleason: That is Gary Schnitkey, an agricultural economist on the Urbana-Champaign campus of the University of Illinois. His management recommendations help farmers make critical decisions. Please consider making a decision to support WILL ag programming by dialing 217–244–9455 or visiting willgive.org. 21:56 Ag Weather with Don Day, DayWeather.com Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention to the weather forecast for the US Corn Belt. Don Day is here from DayWeather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Tell me about the Corn Belt from west to east. Don Day: We are going to see a significant contrast across the Corn Belt over the next week. Very little rain is forecasted for Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, eastern Missouri, and eastern Iowa, as cooler, drier air from Canada keeps thunderstorms to a minimum. Further west, a pipeline of moisture moving from Mexico and Central America will bring heavy rain to the central Rockies and extend eastward. Significant rainfall, potentially two to four inches, will hit the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas, extending across Kansas, Nebraska, western Iowa, the eastern Dakotas, and Minnesota. Todd Gleason: That will become an issue if we lack the heat needed to dissipate the moisture quickly. What will temperatures be like? Don Day: Temperatures will not be excessively cold. The funnel of subtropical air will keep temperatures well above average, though it won’t be as hot in the central and south-central US as it has been recently. There will be some cooling in the southeast, but nothing is poised to come out of Canada yet to bring truly cold weather. Todd Gleason: Thank you, Don. Don Day is with DayWeather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. If you have made a gift in support of our ag programming to 217–244–9455 or willgive.org, thank you. I am Extension’s Todd Gleason.