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Santa Clarita Real Estate Daily: 13 Days Or 63 Days, Sellers Pick One · Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: There's a house in Aquedoce that has been sitting on the market for 711 days.
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_00: That's not 711 days since somebody thought about selling.
• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: That's 711 days listed.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: That's almost two years of keeping a house clean for strangers who didn't come.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: And this morning, 106 homes across this valley are holding an open house.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: And every single one of those sellers believes that it's going to be a fast one.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: So good morning, good afternoon, good evening, whenever you happen to be tuning in.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: This is the Santa Clorita Real Estate Daily Show, of course, brought to you by Santa Clorita Openhouse.com, where every number I'm about to read comes straight off the CRMLS feed.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: Everything today was pulled at 6.01 a.m.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: Pacific Standard Time on Sunday, September 6, 2026.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: And hold one number for me today, and that's 240.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: Every show I have a number to hold, 240.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: Hold on to that one.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get there shortly.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: I'll come back to it.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: And when I do, it'll explain what Aqua Dulce, why that Aqua Dulce house is better than any story that uh in the market could give you.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: Now, here's the board this morning: 826 active listings in the Santa Cruz Valley, 106 properties in backup, 191 in escrow, 13 coming soon, 39 closed in the last seven days, 199 closed in the last 30, 1,388 closed in the last six months.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: So since last Sunday, active inventory is up six.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: Escrow's properties in escrow up 12, and closings in the seven-day window are down 11.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: Escrow up 12 while weekly closings drop 11.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: It's not the contradiction.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: Escrow is what people decided in the last two weeks.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: Closings are what they decided 30 to 45 days ago.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: So escrow is the newer number and it's pointing up.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: Now 826 active divided by 199 closed in 30 days gives us 4.2 months of supply.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: That's not motor cop math, that's real math.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: Under four months is a seller's market, four to six is balanced, over six is a buyer's market.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: So the valley headline reads balanced currently.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: Now break it down by property type, and the headline falls apart.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: So single family homes, 483 are currently active, 147 closed in the last 30 days.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: That's 3.3 months.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: Seller's market.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: Condos, 203 active, 27 closed, that's 7.9 months.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: That's a buyer's market.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: And in townhomes in that world, 112 active, 22 closed, 5.1 months of inventory, that's a balanced market right in the middle.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: So it's the same valley, same morning, same rate, and the negotiating power flips depending on what kind of roof you happen to own.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: Now here's the number that runs this entire show, and it's the one nobody puts on a flyer.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: In the last 30 days, the seller in this valley who closed above their asking price did it in 13 days.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: The sellers who closed below asking took 41 days of 1,334 closed sales.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: 464 sellers cut their price at some point.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: That's 34.8%, about one in three.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_00: The sellers who never cut sold in 13 days at 100% of what they asked.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: The sellers who cut took 63 days and closed at 95% of their original price.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: 13 days, again 63 days.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm going to call that 13-day window because it's exactly what it is.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_00: The market looks at your house, forms an opinion, and it does that in about two weeks.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: Everything you do after day 13 isn't selling your house.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: It's negotiating with a verdict that has already been reached.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: And this is where people get the order of events backward because they believe the price cut causes the fast sale.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: Now look at when the cut happens.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: After the house has already been quiet for a month, the buyers who were going to move fast already walked through it in week one and week two, and they're gone.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: The cut doesn't restart the clock, it just tells everybody still watching that you will go lower, which is, of course, an invitation to wait.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: The feed says the median cut in this valley is$30,000, about 4%.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: And that seller still ends up 5% under their original number and roughly 50 days behind the seller who never cut once.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: The cut isn't the strategy.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: The cut's the receipt.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: So over the last 30 days, 28.2% of Santa Clarita sellers closed over asking.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: 22.9% closed exactly at asking, and 48.9% closed under asking price.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: Stretch it to 90 days, and we see numbers change a little.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: 29.7% over, 41.7%, 47.1% under, stretch it over 180 days, and we have 31.8% over, 45.2% under.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: Watch that direction because the direction is the whole message.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: Over asking goes 31.8, then 29.7, then 28.2.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: Under asking price goes from 45.2 to 47.1, then 48.9.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: Almost half the sellers here now close for less than they asked.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: And that share has grown in every window I can measure.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: And the two outcomes are not the same size.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: So when a Santa Clarita seller beats their asking price, the median amount they beat it by is about$11,000.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: When a seller comes in under that median amount and they give up is$19,000.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: So the upside is$11,000 and the downside is$19,000.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: And the downside is landing on almost half the market, while the upside lands on a little over a quarter.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_00: That's not a crash.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: That's a coin.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: That's not weighted the way most sellers think it is.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_00: The medians, last 30 days,$188 closed sales.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: Median sales price,$810,000.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: That's$415 a square foot.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: 34 days on market, last seven days,$39 closed.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: Median$802,000,$391 a foot.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_00: And then 40 days,$9 sales as a small sample.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: Don't build a theory on an$8,000 off dollar difference, but by property type over 30 days, I break that down.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: Single family,$880,000.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: Townhomes,$590,750.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: Condos,$495,000.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: Now$240.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: $240 of the$826 homes for sale in this valley have been sitting 60 days or longer.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: That's 29%, about third.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: About three in 10 listings this morning are already past that point when the outcome was decided.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: In Acton and Aqua Dulce, it's 39% in Valencia, 31% Canyon Country, and Newhall, 29% each.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: And the oldest are not close calls.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: 711 days in Aqua Dulce, the house I opened with, 694 days in Newhall, 532 in Canyon Country, 480 in Valencia.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: Those 240 sellers, they're not waiting on a buyer.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: They're paying for the 13-day window every week in mortgage payments and lawn care and a kitchen wiped down for people who aren't coming, which is exactly why 95 homes in this valley got cheaper in the last seven days.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: 95 price drops, five increases, 16 come back after a deal fell apart.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: 77 new listings arrived.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: And add up those 95, what those 95 sellers took off, and it comes to$2,550,617 erased from the asking column in the valley in one week.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_00: So Valencia had 26 drops worth$768,239.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: Kenya Country 23 drops worth$527,000,999, about$528,000.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_00: New Hall 15 drops worth$370,000.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_00: Saugus 12th, Castac 8, Acton, and Stevenson Ranch 4 each.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: Shen and Aqua Dulce, nothing.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_00: Now let me take my foot off your chest because I've spent six minutes on what's hard.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_00: And stopping there is what the doom headlines do.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_00: Now, here's the other side.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_00: And it's just as real 191 homes are in escrow this morning.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_00: That's up 12 from last Sunday.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: Somebody signed the Valley Median over the last 30 days,$810,000.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: 90 days ago, that same measure was$799,450.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_00: The price per square foot is off 1.2% over 90 days.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_00: And the feed zone call on that is flat, not down.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_00: In Castaic over the last 90 days, 51% of sellers closed over asking.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_00: In the$600,000,$800,$800,000 ban, 36.6% closed over asking, and they did it in 12 days.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_00: Valencia's price per square foot is up 5.1% over 90 days.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_00: So this isn't a failing market.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_00: This is a market that stopped paying a premium for patients.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_00: By City, last 30 days.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: Valencia,$818,000 on 71 sales, 27 days.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_00: In Saugus,$845,000 on 35 sales in 32 days.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_00: Canyon Country, 800,000 on 33 sales in 40 days.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: Newhall, 658,500 on 16 sales.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_00: Castag 754,900 on 15.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: Stevenson Ranch, 1,086,000 on seven sales at 64 days.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_00: But months of supply by city tells you more than any median will.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_00: Saugus 3.0.
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_00: Valencia 3.3.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_00: Castac 3.36 3.6 months of inventory.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: Stevenson Ranch 4.3, Canyon Country 4.8, New Hall 5.9, Acton 9.2, Aqua Dulce 11.5.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: Saugus and Valencia are sellers' markets this morning.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_00: Actman and Aqua Dulce are buyers markets, and it's not remotely close.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: Let me spend a minute on the New Hall issue because it's the whole lesson in one city.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_00: 100 active listings.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: 17 closed in 30 days.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: That's 5.9 months of supply.
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_00: That's the top edge of balance.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_00: Now if you split it, New Hall has 35 houses for sale and 11 closed in the last 30 days.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: That's 3.2 months.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_00: That's a seller's market.
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_00: Newhall also has 53 condos for sale.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_00: Two of them closed in the last 30 days.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_00: So if you do that division, you get 26 months of supply.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: I want to be careful there because two sales is a tiny sample.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_00: So run it against the six-month record instead.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_00: 49 New Hall condos closed in the last six months.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: That's roughly eight a month.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_00: Against 53 for sale, that's about 6.5 months of inventory.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_00: And even on the kinder math, New Hall condos are a buyer's market.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: New hall houses are a seller's market.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: In the same city over 90 days, 54.4% of New Hall sellers closed over asking.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: That's the highest of the big cities.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_00: And they closed at 97.1% of original.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_00: That's the lowest, which is why New Hall recorded 15 price drops, zero increases this week.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_00: Who's actually buying?
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: Well, over the last 12 months, 2,537 sales with the loan type reported.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_00: And that comes in at conventional, 59.8% of the market, 29 days, median close at$825,000.
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_00: Then FHA rings in 12.3%, 37 days,$745,000.
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_00: Cash, 10.6%, 33 days.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, people still have cash.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_00: Cash is the only group closing below asking on the median.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: 98.7% of list at$729,500.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_00: Cash to new loan at 7.1%.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: Veterans Administration or VA loans 5.4%, 26 days, that's 100% of list.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_00: Median close$800,000.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_00: So read the VA line again.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: VA buyers are the fastest closers in the valley.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: Pretty remarkable.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_00: When you're going to do a VA loan, contact me.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: I got some great lenders, but you want to go at your own.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_00: Be wary of particular lending entities that repackage and resell you to somebody else, so you're not even dealing with them.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_00: Credit unions, some of them are famous for this.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: I would go to the source.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_00: I wouldn't want to be farmed out through a credit union.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_00: So VA buyers are the fastest closures in the valley, 26 days, and they pay full asking price.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_00: And if you still carry that old story that the VA offer is slow and complicated, the feed says the opposite across 136 sales.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_00: Rates, Freddy Mac published its weekly survey, Thursday, September 3rd, putting the 30-year fixed at 6.71%, up from 6.66%.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_00: That 15-year went from 6.04 to 5.98%.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_00: That's a government-sponsored enterprise publishing, its own survey.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_00: And the direction was up.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_00: Now here's what five basis points actually cost a person on this valley's$810,000 median.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_00: With 20% down, you're financing$648,000.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: At 6.66%, that's about$4,164 a month in principal and interest.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: And at 6.71%, it's about$4,185.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_00: So$21 a month,$252 a year, somewhere around$7,600 over the life of a 30-year loan.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_00: Not a catastrophe, but also it's not nothing.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_00: Both are true at once.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: The Federal Reserve meets September 15th and 16th.
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_00: That's straight off the Fed's own published calendar.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_00: And Friday, September 4th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 162,000 jobs added in August, unemployment holding at 4.1%.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_00: Forecasters expected around$53,000.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_00: A jobs number that strong makes it hard for the Fed to cut, not easier.
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_00: And the mortgage rates track that 10-year treasury, not the Fed's overnight rate.
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_00: So if you've been waiting to buy until rates come down, be clear on what you're waiting on.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_00: You're waiting for the bond market to decide the company, the economy, excuse me, is getting weaker.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_00: Now think about what that would mean for your own job while you're wishing for it.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_00: Wider context sources named Realtor.com's August figures for Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Anaheim show a median list price of$1,050,000.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_00: That's down 4.5% year over year.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_00: 53 days on market and 16.6% of active listings carry their price cut.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: That is a share of standing inventory.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_00: My 95 is a count of cuts inside seven days.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_00: So two different rulers, don't stack them.
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_00: One piece of history because it reframes, reframes everything I just told you.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_00: On the 10-year almanac, I built out and posted and I actually built this entire mechanism.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_00: It's Santa Clarita Openhouses.com, measured against the 2017 Canyon Country, is up 57%.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_00: Newhall 55%, Valencia 54, Saugus 51, Castac 50%, and Stevenson Ranch, the most expensive city in this valley, is up 41%.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_00: The least of all of them.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: The cheapest neighborhoods associated the most and the priciest one the least because when payments get expensive, money runs downhill hunting for a number it can qualify for.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: So look where that leaves Stevenson Ranch.
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_00: 64 days on the market, slowest in the valley, 61.8% of its sellers closed under asking in over 90 days.
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_00: The city that's gained the least on the way up is having the hardest time right now.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_00: That's not a coincidence.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_00: That's the same force working in both directions.
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_00: Open houses, well, there's 129 on the board right now, and 106 of them are today.
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_00: Sunday and Valencia ringing in 58, Canyon Country 32, Saugus 15, New Hall 9, Castac 7, Stevenson Ranch 4, Santa Clarita 3, Acton 1.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_00: Most run 12 to 4.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_00: Then it falls off a cliff.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: Eight are scheduled for Monday, 1 Tuesday, and next weekend is only showing 8 so far.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_00: That's 8 Saturday, 6 Sunday so far.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: So if you're shopping, today's basically the entire week.
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_00: All 106 of them, and the map sitting on Santa Clarita Openhouses.com.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_00: The questions people typed into the site this week were plain ones.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_00: Are there any open houses this weekend?
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_00: Somebody looked up an address on Elk Ridge.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_00: Somebody typed the word wilderness.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_00: And the ones that come up over and over are still what's sold in my neighborhood is now a good time to sell and what's my home worth?
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_00: Straight answer to the middle one, it depends entirely on what door you're standing in.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_00: If you own a single family home in Saugus or Valencia, three months of supply says yes.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_00: And it says to go now.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_00: If you own a condo in Newhall, 6.5 months says price it like you mean it on day one or plan on 63 days and a$30,000 conversation.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_00: So here's the one thing to carry out this morning.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_00: If you're listening, your entire job is for the first 13 days, not the 90, not the open house in week six.
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_00: Days one through 13, price it, photograph it, and open it like it's the only window you get because it mostly is.
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_00: And if you're 40 days in with no offer, stop calling it a slow market.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_00: The market already answered you.
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_00: You just haven't opened a letter.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_00: A house doesn't sit because nobody wanted it.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_00: A house sits because everybody who wanted it already saw the price.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_00: Today I'm going into Canyon Country because 23 price drops acros 178 listings and a price per square foot down 9.5% over 90 days, that deserves its own warning.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_00: Everything I read to you came off the CR MLS feed through Santa ClaritaOpenhouses.com at 6.01 a.m.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_00: Pacific Standard Time.
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_00: So go look at it yourself.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_00: Based on the information from the California Regional Multiple Listing Service as of September 6, 2026, display of MLS data is not deemed rival reliable and is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS.
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_00: The buyers are responsible for verifying everything themselves.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Connor with Honor.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_00: Be safe out there, and we will see you tomorrow.