Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites $100K Contest & College Football Week 1

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The Favorites $100K Contest & College Football Week 1 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network Huge
0:17
Speaker 1: Huge show today Week one College Football kicking off on
0:21
Speaker 1: Friday night, all day Saturday Sunday. This is our Week
0:25
Speaker 1: one College Football Best Bets episode We're going to bring
0:28
Speaker 1: on the Action Network Ogs Stuckey and Colin Wilson, hosts
0:34
Speaker 1: of Everything to Do with BBOC, the best college football podcast,
0:39
Speaker 1: the best college football pregame show there is. You can
0:43
Speaker 1: catch the BBOC podcast. You can watch the BBOC live
0:48
Speaker 1: show on the Action Network app. You can also see
0:51
Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. As a reminder, well hold
0:55
Speaker 1: on before we get there. I'm so excited about what
0:57
Speaker 1: we got going on today. I'm Chad Milman, chief Content
1:00
Speaker 1: Officer of the Action Network, and I am joined as
1:02
Speaker 1: i am every episode by my companion, my co host
1:07
Speaker 1: mi Ca Padre, my BFF, Simon Hunter Eto.
1:13
Speaker 2: So I'm in Jeah.
1:14
Speaker 3: We made it last day of August, last day of August.
1:19
Speaker 1: Last day of August. Brother, We've run through so much
1:22
Speaker 1: NFL and then we got another show. We got to
1:24
Speaker 1: Convince me show also presented by BET three sixty five.
1:27
Speaker 1: Me You, Raybon Kroner going after each other with some
1:32
Speaker 1: futures bets that we're talking about that'll air today Thursday.
1:37
Speaker 4: That was a lot of fun.
1:40
Speaker 1: Listen, dude, I made some more bets for futures this
1:45
Speaker 1: morning that you convinced me of yesterday. I went I
1:47
Speaker 1: went deep on that. Justin Herbert to lead the league
1:51
Speaker 1: in total passing yards. I can't wait for that. I
1:56
Speaker 1: can't wait for college football. I realized today I was
2:00
Speaker 1: walking the dog and it's beautiful out. It's sixty two
2:03
Speaker 1: degrees here in central Connecticut, sunny, little crisp, And I
2:08
Speaker 1: realized this Saturday, my wife will be out of town.
2:11
Speaker 1: My sixteen year old son, you know, he'll do what
2:14
Speaker 1: he's doing. I'll be on the couch watching college football
2:17
Speaker 1: the entire day.
2:19
Speaker 4: Now.
2:20
Speaker 3: It's the best time of year, brother. I mean, I
2:21
Speaker 3: walked outside today in Jersey. It was that cool seventy
2:25
Speaker 3: that fall weather, and it's just it's your baby, It's
2:28
Speaker 3: football season.
2:29
Speaker 1: Let's not dilly dally. Let's get people to the contest.
2:32
Speaker 1: As a reminder of the Favorites podcast is proudly presented
2:35
Speaker 1: by Bet three sixty five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand.
2:38
Speaker 1: Sign Up with promo code Action to get Bet three
2:40
Speaker 1: sixty five's exclusive sign up offer, bet one dollar on
2:44
Speaker 1: any game and get two hundred dollars in bonus bets.
2:46
Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or older. Offer is available in Colorado,
2:51
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, and Iowa. Gambling problem call or
2:56
Speaker 1: text one eight hundred gambler, Brother, Holy.
3:04
Speaker 4: Fuck, brother, we did it.
3:07
Speaker 1: The Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick
3:14
Speaker 1: Them Contest is live.
3:18
Speaker 4: Queue the balloons, queue the horn section. Woooo, I know
3:25
Speaker 4: it's more.
3:25
Speaker 1: It's it's more than one hundred thousand dollars. It's more.
3:28
Speaker 1: The Favorites Podcast more than one hundred thousand dollars Pro
3:31
Speaker 1: Football Can Pick Them contest is live right now. To
3:33
Speaker 1: sign up, go to I'm gonna go slow because you're listening.
3:38
Speaker 1: I don't know where you are. I want you to
3:40
Speaker 1: write this down. Go to Favorites dot Action network dot com.
3:48
Speaker 1: That is Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. Be the first
3:54
Speaker 1: to sign up. If you can hear my voice and
3:57
Speaker 1: you are twenty one or older, right now, go sign up.
4:03
Speaker 1: We're doing this. Brother, me you, Matt Mitchell. We have
4:09
Speaker 1: been dreaming about this for five years, we have been
4:12
Speaker 1: dreaming about having a contest. It's a season long contest
4:17
Speaker 1: five picks against the spread every week picks lock twelve
4:21
Speaker 1: to fifty nine a pm Eastern on Sunday. There's also
4:26
Speaker 1: the weekly five picks against the spread. You can win
4:29
Speaker 1: thousands of dollars playing the weekly. Each week, you can
4:33
Speaker 1: win tens of thousands of dollars playing the season long. Simon,
4:37
Speaker 1: We've been dreaming about giving the listeners a chance to
4:41
Speaker 1: compete against us every single week. It's a lot of pressure.
4:44
Speaker 1: You're professional, but there's a lot of pressure.
4:46
Speaker 3: It's a lot of pressure, but it's also just an
4:48
Speaker 3: amazing feeling. I don't know if I've ever given away
4:50
Speaker 3: one hundred thousand dollars in my life chat maybe to
4:52
Speaker 3: the sports books.
4:53
Speaker 1: But I say, I feel like you've given one hundred
4:55
Speaker 1: thousand dollars probably too many many places along the Jersey shore.
5:00
Speaker 3: So this is a really good feeling. I hope this
5:03
Speaker 3: is a tax right off for me and you both.
5:05
Speaker 1: You know what, that's a good question. Let's get our
5:06
Speaker 1: accountant and go reminder, go sign up favorites dot actionnetwork
5:12
Speaker 1: dot com. Also, Simon, we got to give credit to
5:16
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, who has been He's got so much going
5:20
Speaker 1: on right now. Okay, it's two weeks before the NFL
5:24
Speaker 1: season starts, it's the run up to college football. He
5:28
Speaker 1: does incredible work getting all of these podcasts, getting our
5:34
Speaker 1: recalcitran talent like you and Me and Stuckey and Colin
5:38
Speaker 1: Wilson like ready and in the right places so we
5:42
Speaker 1: can kick off the season successfully. Everyone can see their
5:46
Speaker 1: numbers grow, everyone can get their podcasts out. In addition
5:50
Speaker 1: to that, he has been up NonStop for like ninety
5:54
Speaker 1: six hours getting this contest ready to go. Yay Matt
5:58
Speaker 1: Mitchell rate work. All the little tiny terms and conditions
6:03
Speaker 1: that need to be relevant, all the gameplay that needs
6:07
Speaker 1: to be executed. For our listeners who go to favorites
6:10
Speaker 1: dot actionnetwork dot com to sign up, Matt, really, you produced,
6:16
Speaker 1: you totally produced, Well done? What am I missing?
6:19
Speaker 4: Thank you ched.
6:19
Speaker 5: It is an honor and a privilege to grind away
6:23
Speaker 5: at this time of year. For those wondering about gameplay,
6:26
Speaker 5: there's a million little details to share. For people who
6:29
Speaker 5: have played in the contest like this, but high level
6:31
Speaker 5: five games against the spread. Yes, the lines will change
6:35
Speaker 5: dynamically from the time it opens at midnight going into
6:39
Speaker 5: Tuesday morning before they close at one pm. On Sundays,
6:43
Speaker 5: it's just the Sunday games and Monday Thursday Night football,
6:47
Speaker 5: and then the earlier kicks. It's the Sunday afternoon, Sunday
6:51
Speaker 5: Night Football, Monday Night football. They are contest lined, so
6:54
Speaker 5: it's always a half point. There will be no pushes.
6:56
Speaker 5: There's a grand price of forty thousand dollars. We will
6:59
Speaker 5: pay out the top ten season finishers. We will also
7:04
Speaker 5: pay out three thousand dollars in weekly prizes to the
7:07
Speaker 5: top five finishers. Every single week. Your two lowest scores
7:13
Speaker 5: are dropped through week twelve, So after the Thanksgiving week slate,
7:19
Speaker 5: your two crappiest weeks are removed from your score, and
7:23
Speaker 5: then the scoreboard will be considered kind of finalized, and
7:26
Speaker 5: it's a horse race for those final six weeks. Are
7:29
Speaker 5: there any states where you can't play? I am delighted
7:32
Speaker 5: to inform everyone it is just two states, Rhode Island
7:35
Speaker 5: and Washington State. Why can't those two states play? You're
7:39
Speaker 5: never gonna believe this, but I'm not an attorney nor
7:42
Speaker 5: legal expert, So call your fucking senator if you have
7:46
Speaker 5: a question about that. The website again, Favorites dot actionnetwork
7:50
Speaker 5: dot com. Can I change my picks? Yes, you can
7:54
Speaker 5: cancel your entry and replay as long as you do
7:57
Speaker 5: so before gamelock. So if you want to change one line,
8:00
Speaker 5: you have to risk changing all of them, so just
8:02
Speaker 5: be advised. There we will have a tiebreaker. The tiebreaker
8:06
Speaker 5: will typically be a statistic that will end between one
8:09
Speaker 5: and one hundred, so tie break will be very important
8:11
Speaker 5: with a contest of this scope. And then finally, do
8:15
Speaker 5: I have to listen to the Favorites podcast to win prizes?
8:19
Speaker 5: Not technically, but very soon. It will be very crucial
8:24
Speaker 5: that you listen to this show in order to have
8:28
Speaker 5: a confident time finishing in the money, So just be
8:31
Speaker 5: advised that won't be week one, but if you tell
8:34
Speaker 5: your friends, hey, you should sign up, they should be
8:36
Speaker 5: prepared to have to listen to at least some of
8:40
Speaker 5: the show in order to finish in the money. So
8:44
Speaker 5: very excited. Tell everyone you can that's twenty one or
8:47
Speaker 5: older as of today to sign up. There's no downside,
8:50
Speaker 5: there's no risk. You just sign up and you're ready
8:53
Speaker 5: to play all season.
8:54
Speaker 3: But high perfectly is don't know.
8:57
Speaker 2: We can finally play the game.
8:59
Speaker 4: Dude, it's big. It's just big. It's a big deal.
9:02
Speaker 1: I don't know if a podcast has ever given away
9:05
Speaker 1: more than one hundred thousand dollars like this.
9:07
Speaker 5: You can just have the money. You just make the picture.
9:10
Speaker 5: You're making the picks anyway, folks, just make them here.
9:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's true. As a reminder, you can catch every
9:15
Speaker 1: episode of The Favorites live on YouTube. So for those
9:19
Speaker 1: enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like.
9:23
Speaker 1: We're giving you one hundred thousand dollars, one hundred and
9:26
Speaker 1: twenty thousand dollars. Give us a freaking like. Subscribe to
9:29
Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. It's time to roll with
9:34
Speaker 1: the ogs. It's time to roll with our good friends
9:38
Speaker 1: Stucky and Colin Wilson.
9:40
Speaker 4: I love these guys so much.
9:42
Speaker 1: I love listening to them talk about college football, even
9:46
Speaker 1: when they do it for an hour and forty three
9:48
Speaker 1: minutes on the week one College Football BBOC episode.
9:53
Speaker 5: Once again, that's the Big Bets on Campus podcast. If
9:58
Speaker 5: you like betting college football, Welcome Home.
10:01
Speaker 1: I'm going to listen to it at triple time and
10:03
Speaker 1: it'll take me four walks with the dog. I don't care.
10:07
Speaker 1: These guys have been looking at each other for like
10:09
Speaker 1: four days straight. Colin, at this point in the college
10:13
Speaker 1: football season, do you look at Stucky and think that's
10:17
Speaker 1: my guy? Or do you look at him and think, ah,
10:20
Speaker 1: I hate him with the passion of a thousand suns.
10:24
Speaker 2: Stucky is always my guy.
10:27
Speaker 6: He was a big supporter of me a decade ago,
10:29
Speaker 6: so I'll always be a big supporter of him. But man,
10:31
Speaker 6: we sometimes we get locked up head to have had
10:33
Speaker 6: differing opinions. I get made fun of for my love
10:36
Speaker 6: for San Diego State overs, which I love. I will
10:39
Speaker 6: take it all day. I need someone to bounce off of.
10:42
Speaker 6: I'm in my own head all week, and you need
10:43
Speaker 6: someone to bounce your ideas off of.
10:44
Speaker 2: And he's the perfect person to do it.
10:46
Speaker 1: You're in your head. I would never guess that Stucky
10:49
Speaker 1: funny Colin. He was saying the exact opposite about you,
10:53
Speaker 1: for course this morning.
10:55
Speaker 7: Look, I love Colin. A lot of people don't know
10:58
Speaker 7: Chad that like the when we started Action Network, you
11:02
Speaker 7: came on a couple months after me, so at first
11:05
Speaker 7: it was and thank god because I would have no
11:07
Speaker 7: idea how to run an entire content business. But our
11:12
Speaker 7: content team at first you know. For we had the
11:16
Speaker 7: app team, the engineers and Brian Mead, who I love.
11:20
Speaker 1: Brian me the founder of the Action Network and the
11:22
Speaker 1: founder of the creator of the Action app, who recruited
11:25
Speaker 1: me at the same time I was recruiting you.
11:27
Speaker 7: Yep, so I came on. Was the entire content team,
11:30
Speaker 7: so it was writing, editing, posting on some RinkyDink site
11:36
Speaker 7: Action Sports. Action dot Io was the site, the first hire,
11:42
Speaker 7: and it was just in part time we were I
11:44
Speaker 7: was still working in finance getting these articles up. The
11:46
Speaker 7: first person that I reached out to was Colin and
11:50
Speaker 7: brought Colin on. He was helping me write college football,
11:54
Speaker 7: and then I was taking the NFL, and then we
11:57
Speaker 7: brought on one of my good friends, Daniel Scotti to
11:59
Speaker 7: write tennis, and I was getting that up. And all
12:03
Speaker 7: of us are still here, which I think speaks to
12:06
Speaker 7: the passion for this company and the work that we do.
12:11
Speaker 7: So yeah, I'm very It just brings me so much
12:15
Speaker 7: joy every year seeing how much the team is growing,
12:18
Speaker 7: and to still be doing this with Colin six seven
12:22
Speaker 7: years later, it's an absolute pleasure.
12:26
Speaker 1: It's stunning, well said, I didn't know we were going
12:28
Speaker 1: to get sentimental but I fucking love it.
12:31
Speaker 4: I'm here for it.
12:32
Speaker 1: I'm also here for a Week one college football bets.
12:37
Speaker 6: If that doesn't want your appetite, you watch him the
12:40
Speaker 6: wrong channel.
12:41
Speaker 1: I know Simon loves this. Simon is like sneaky in
12:45
Speaker 1: that you think he's so focused on football, but he's
12:48
Speaker 1: firing away on every other sport almost entirely based on
12:52
Speaker 1: what are experts in the Action Network app our tracking? Simon,
12:58
Speaker 1: tell me, how much will you really bet on college
13:00
Speaker 1: football during the college.
13:01
Speaker 3: Football season compared to NFL?
13:03
Speaker 1: Well, no, nothing compares the NFL for you, But like,
13:07
Speaker 1: will you be firing away like on Week one with
13:09
Speaker 1: nothing else going on?
13:11
Speaker 6: Oh?
13:11
Speaker 4: Yeah?
13:11
Speaker 3: I mean I was one of those people where I
13:13
Speaker 3: think I turned on the app and I saw Stucky
13:15
Speaker 3: and a couple other guys were on Navy, and I
13:17
Speaker 3: was just like, you're giving me a double digit dog
13:20
Speaker 3: week one?
13:20
Speaker 2: Why not?
13:21
Speaker 3: And uh, I think all of us knew at halftime
13:23
Speaker 3: that was a dead bet, and that's what I'm looking for. Chat.
13:25
Speaker 7: I want to first quarter first Yeah, I want to
13:28
Speaker 7: pick that.
13:31
Speaker 2: So that was great.
13:32
Speaker 3: It was just like college football is back. Navy couldn't
13:35
Speaker 3: couldn't pass the ball more than two yards, and I
13:38
Speaker 3: was just like, this is why I love college football.
13:40
Speaker 3: It's just it's the best because you know, even even tonight,
13:45
Speaker 3: a couple of games we're going to talk about, there's
13:46
Speaker 3: just there's always new injuries coming out. There's just so
13:49
Speaker 3: much craziness in college football that makes it so much fun.
13:52
Speaker 3: And again it's if you're a good capper. You can
13:55
Speaker 3: get a huge advantage betting college football. You just if
13:58
Speaker 3: you have good information the public doesn't have. It is
14:01
Speaker 3: truly one of the one of the better sports to bet,
14:04
Speaker 3: just because there's so many teams and there's so much
14:06
Speaker 3: bad information being given out on all these different teams.
14:09
Speaker 3: So we've already seen a game we're gonna talk about
14:11
Speaker 3: tonight Utah Florida. That line has been running chat And
14:15
Speaker 3: that's why we love college football. It's just it's so
14:17
Speaker 3: much here saying what's gonna happen, what's not gonna happen.
14:20
Speaker 3: It's just it's really great to have it back.
14:22
Speaker 4: Well, look, not.
14:24
Speaker 7: Day went up seven to and then Navy had a
14:26
Speaker 7: fourth down in Notre Dame territory through the ball had
14:31
Speaker 7: a die wide open, but another wide receiver on Navy
14:34
Speaker 7: ran into him. Pass was incomplete, and I said, we
14:38
Speaker 7: are back.
14:41
Speaker 1: Listen. You mentioned Utah, Florida. Let line's running before we
14:44
Speaker 1: even started the podcast. Stucky and Colin, we're talking about
14:48
Speaker 1: Hawaii and I want to get to all the Week
14:51
Speaker 1: one best bets for everybody before we do that. Stuck,
14:55
Speaker 1: you had a story on Action which and I love
14:59
Speaker 1: when you sort of dig into these stories. It was
15:01
Speaker 1: about historical trends, which was basically asking the question, is
15:05
Speaker 1: it better to start out the year with a game
15:09
Speaker 1: in week zero or is it better to start off
15:12
Speaker 1: the year to play someone who had played in Week zero.
15:16
Speaker 1: Give me your take on that theory, and then tell me,
15:20
Speaker 1: based on that, who has the edge this week.
15:24
Speaker 4: Yeah.
15:24
Speaker 7: So it's a really unique situation in college football where,
15:28
Speaker 7: you know, unlike the NFL, where everyone starts at the
15:33
Speaker 7: same on the same week, you know, you don't have
15:34
Speaker 7: a buy in week one college football, you have a
15:37
Speaker 7: handful of teams last week it was fourteen that will
15:41
Speaker 7: start out in Week zero and then they will play
15:44
Speaker 7: a again in Week one against the team making their debut.
15:48
Speaker 7: So there's two ways that you can look at this.
15:49
Speaker 7: You could say, Okay, the team that already played was
15:53
Speaker 7: able to kind of shake the rust off, work out
15:55
Speaker 7: the kinks right, and then from an execution standpoint, you
15:58
Speaker 7: could say, all right, this didn't work, let's tweak this
16:00
Speaker 7: and let's speak that. So then that would be the
16:02
Speaker 7: advantage you get to going out and playing. However, on
16:06
Speaker 7: the other side, you have a team, you know the
16:08
Speaker 7: next week that's going to be making their debut against
16:11
Speaker 7: a team that already played. They have number one or
16:13
Speaker 7: rest advantage, right, you didn't play, a preparation advantage. They've
16:17
Speaker 7: been preparing for their first opponent for weeks. Well, the
16:20
Speaker 7: other team, you know, already played someone they had to
16:22
Speaker 7: prepare for, and then you have film on that team,
16:26
Speaker 7: so you can see some of their tendencies. You can
16:28
Speaker 7: see what they're gonna do, which is even more important
16:29
Speaker 7: college because there's so much coaching and player turnover that
16:32
Speaker 7: a lot can change from season to season, whereas unlike
16:35
Speaker 7: the NFL, you know, if you're the Lions, you're like,
16:38
Speaker 7: all right, Mahomes is going to carve us out what
16:40
Speaker 7: can we do? Right, Like, it's there's not much you
16:43
Speaker 7: need to see if the Chiefs played a week before
16:45
Speaker 7: and what you can expect. So if you look back
16:49
Speaker 7: just a FBS games in Week one, so FBS verus
16:53
Speaker 7: FBS teams that played, or I should say teams that
16:57
Speaker 7: didn't play that are playing a team that already played,
16:59
Speaker 7: the team making their debut against a team that they
17:01
Speaker 7: got to see in Week zero. Over the past eighteen years,
17:05
Speaker 7: since twenty and five, fifty six and thirty three against
17:09
Speaker 7: the spread, it's about sixty two percent, which hints that
17:12
Speaker 7: the clear edge is having that film, rest and preparation advantage.
17:17
Speaker 7: So it applies to five games this week. I actually
17:20
Speaker 7: faded this. You know, it's a trend. It's something that
17:23
Speaker 7: you should keep in mind. Also, markets adjust the trends.
17:26
Speaker 7: You know, a team like UMass already played. I actually
17:29
Speaker 7: took them against Auburn, and the same thing with Hawaii.
17:32
Speaker 7: Granted at lines that are you know, have been since
17:35
Speaker 7: bet down a lot, but one that I do like
17:38
Speaker 7: SMU playing for the first time against the Louisiana Tech
17:40
Speaker 7: team that just looked awful and doesn't have much as
17:44
Speaker 7: one that I would like. USC already played there playing
17:49
Speaker 7: Nevada that one, you know, very high spread, hard to protect.
17:53
Speaker 7: Don't really like that. So if I had to go
17:54
Speaker 7: with one that does fit this historical trend. I would
17:58
Speaker 7: go with S against Louisiana Tech laying under three touchdowns.
18:04
Speaker 7: Just something to keep in mind, and it's even more stunning.
18:08
Speaker 7: I think it's like seventy five seventy six percent. I
18:11
Speaker 7: had the article out on the Action NEWORKAP and Action
18:13
Speaker 7: Nework dot Com. When it's a conference matchup, if you
18:16
Speaker 7: look back at historic we don't have any this year.
18:17
Speaker 7: We had it last year with Indiana Illinois. But the
18:19
Speaker 7: thinking there, so just keep this in mind the future years,
18:22
Speaker 7: is that with a conference matchup, then that film advantage
18:25
Speaker 7: is even greater and you might unleash, you know, some
18:28
Speaker 7: new looks and you're gonna put more stock into that
18:31
Speaker 7: opponent because it's more important as a conference game. But
18:34
Speaker 7: none of those fit the mold this year. But history
18:38
Speaker 7: says the advantage is not playing in week zero and
18:42
Speaker 7: getting to play a team that already played because of
18:44
Speaker 7: that film preparation and rest advantage.
18:46
Speaker 1: You guys, I think one place, go ahead, Colin.
18:49
Speaker 6: I was gonna say one place where we actually hopped
18:51
Speaker 6: off this train on the podcast was Auburn UMass. I mean,
18:53
Speaker 6: you Mass looked excellent, and so what happens is when
18:56
Speaker 6: U Mass and Hawaii have these kinds of games. The
18:59
Speaker 6: spread moves four to seven points in their favor because
19:01
Speaker 6: the odds. You know, it's the last thing you saw,
19:03
Speaker 6: so I'm gonna move the board. But in this case,
19:05
Speaker 6: U Mass is going to an SEC school with Auburn,
19:07
Speaker 6: and that thing dipped down to thirty five. I mean,
19:10
Speaker 6: we could discuss key numbers in the thirties, but I
19:12
Speaker 6: mean once you get to thirty five, that's just a
19:14
Speaker 6: red flag to me that you know, Auburn and Hugh
19:17
Speaker 6: Freeze is not going to stop scoring. It's still you Mass, right,
19:20
Speaker 6: they beat New Mexico State. Let's hold the brakes here
19:22
Speaker 6: on pumping this line three or four points on the minute.
19:25
Speaker 2: Men.
19:25
Speaker 7: So no, you bring up a good point because my
19:29
Speaker 7: data and when I have referenced trends on you know,
19:32
Speaker 7: big DUTs on campus podcasts or the action over podcasts
19:35
Speaker 7: for college and NFL, I'm going against the closing line.
19:39
Speaker 7: So you know, for example, I that Hawaii plus eight
19:44
Speaker 7: against Stanford last week, and now it's plus three, right,
19:49
Speaker 7: So if Stanford wins by four, right, I'm going to
19:52
Speaker 7: show that they covered against the closing line. But I
19:55
Speaker 7: took it up, you know, last week U mass was
19:57
Speaker 7: plus thirty eight and a half. It's down to thirty five.
20:00
Speaker 7: So part of that is, you know the teams that
20:03
Speaker 7: in week zero, after they have some success, you might
20:05
Speaker 7: see the lines come down. And at times it's an overreaction,
20:08
Speaker 7: which speaks again to always trying to get the best
20:11
Speaker 7: of the number.
20:12
Speaker 1: I fucking love college football line sign you mess open
20:17
Speaker 1: plus thirty eight and a half.
20:22
Speaker 2: That's crazy.
20:24
Speaker 3: So Colin, I've been checking up on you brother, and
20:27
Speaker 3: I saw you have a story up about the new
20:28
Speaker 3: rules impacting over unders. If you could tell our fans
20:32
Speaker 3: what are these new rules and you know what kind
20:35
Speaker 3: of adjustments have you made because of them?
20:37
Speaker 6: Yeah, I don't want to get too mathematical. You know,
20:40
Speaker 6: no one wants their brain fried this early. But so
20:42
Speaker 6: the thinking was that every it's going to follow the
20:44
Speaker 6: NFL that every time there's a first down, Uh it's
20:47
Speaker 6: not two minutes within the end of the half or
20:48
Speaker 6: the end of the game. Every time there's a first down,
20:51
Speaker 6: they're going to keep the clock running and they're going
20:53
Speaker 6: to spot the ball. Now, in college football, they've never
20:55
Speaker 6: done that before. I think in thirty five years they
20:57
Speaker 6: haven't changed the clock rules. So what I project was
21:00
Speaker 6: about six to eight seconds are going to burn off
21:02
Speaker 6: the clock, and we averaged about thirty eight first downs
21:05
Speaker 6: per game in college football. I said, I didn't want
21:07
Speaker 6: to too much math, but simon I came up to
21:10
Speaker 6: about five to seven minutes of clock being burned. And
21:14
Speaker 6: then you know the handicap there is, Well, this really
21:17
Speaker 6: only applies to teams that are methodical and get a
21:19
Speaker 6: lot of first downs. It doesn't really apply to teams
21:21
Speaker 6: that are just explosive down the field. When we get
21:23
Speaker 6: our really small seven game sample set from last weekend,
21:27
Speaker 6: more than half the teams came to their average of
21:30
Speaker 6: plays per game. It had no effect on scoring whatsoever.
21:33
Speaker 6: It didn't have any effect on tempo. It made the
21:36
Speaker 6: game shorter. It's kind of like baseball in the pitchclock.
21:38
Speaker 6: You didn't stop games from being ten to nine, but
21:41
Speaker 6: you did speed it up to make it two hours
21:42
Speaker 6: and forty minutes. And collegeable is kind of experiencing that.
21:45
Speaker 6: So plays per game didn't change that much. Scoring didn't
21:48
Speaker 6: change that much. And now I've got to go readjust
21:50
Speaker 6: it's only seven games. But I took five percent off
21:53
Speaker 6: my totals assuming unders would come in, and I think
21:56
Speaker 6: Unders went four and three last week, so I'll continue
21:58
Speaker 6: to monitor through a huge set of games this weekend.
22:02
Speaker 1: When you're looking at the games this weekend, are there
22:05
Speaker 1: totals that you're thinking about or playing because of this
22:09
Speaker 1: that haven't adjusted, Well, well.
22:10
Speaker 6: I think there's I'm playing actually the reverse in Stanford Hawaii,
22:14
Speaker 6: and the thinking is is that you know the Unders
22:17
Speaker 6: should hit here based upon that Stanford doesn't have any offense,
22:20
Speaker 6: or maybe the clock's going to burn a lot, and
22:23
Speaker 6: I Hawaii hit the under nine times last year. I
22:25
Speaker 6: think that's all about to change because these are two
22:27
Speaker 6: teams that are going to have explosive plays.
22:29
Speaker 2: They're not going to burn up a bunch of.
22:30
Speaker 6: Third downs Sagar for Hawaii's just throwing fifty yard bombs
22:33
Speaker 6: or to this Ashlock freshman kid, it's amazing. So there's
22:37
Speaker 6: this narrative out there that the Unders just need to
22:39
Speaker 6: be played, and they have been hammered for the last
22:41
Speaker 6: month while these lines have been out. But at this point,
22:44
Speaker 6: you know, we're hours away from kickoff, it's time to
22:47
Speaker 6: start playing back on some overs. So I wouldn't be
22:49
Speaker 6: looking at it under at this point right now because
22:50
Speaker 6: they've all been taking a lot of heat leading up
22:52
Speaker 6: to the leading up to this moment.
22:55
Speaker 7: All right, it's a good point because I just want
22:58
Speaker 7: to say it's a good point because we're talking about
22:59
Speaker 7: the plays being reduced and the points are expected to
23:03
Speaker 7: come down two to three points. You've reduced, you know,
23:05
Speaker 7: by the seven to eight plays a game, but that's
23:08
Speaker 7: in aggregate. Teams that methodically move the ball and might
23:11
Speaker 7: produce the more teams that can fire exposive plays downfield,
23:15
Speaker 7: you know, it might not have as much of an impact,
23:18
Speaker 7: So you want to be careful applying any blanket rules.
23:21
Speaker 7: And we're going to continue to gather data and we'll
23:22
Speaker 7: continue to talk about that weekly on the Big Bets
23:26
Speaker 7: on Campus podcast. And Chad, you mentioned thirty eight point spread,
23:29
Speaker 7: which is crazy because you guys, you know, talk predominantly
23:32
Speaker 7: about the NFL, which would be unheard of. So I'll
23:34
Speaker 7: get I'll give you and Simon a trivia question. You
23:36
Speaker 7: rarely see spreads above two touchdowns the NFL in the
23:39
Speaker 7: history of the NFL. What is the highest point spread ever?
23:42
Speaker 7: I'll give you a hint that it happened within the
23:46
Speaker 7: past ten years.
23:47
Speaker 6: Can I say, Jackson guess with the number Jack's Broncos
23:50
Speaker 6: twenty seven wasn't that?
23:52
Speaker 2: Yes? Okay, all right?
23:54
Speaker 3: I mean what I mean Chad's best wins is we
23:56
Speaker 3: took a Patriots team that was minus twenty as a
23:59
Speaker 3: favorite of the night and they covered Tom Brady. Hell, Mary,
24:04
Speaker 3: I can't think of anything other than some team was
24:06
Speaker 3: a twenty point dog. I'm guessing it was the Jets
24:09
Speaker 3: against the Patriots.
24:11
Speaker 1: No, I think I think Colin is is almost right.
24:16
Speaker 1: I think it's stuck. I think it's since we launched
24:19
Speaker 1: action and because I remember probably in two thousand, I
24:24
Speaker 1: think two thousand and eighteen season, the Jags were terrible,
24:31
Speaker 1: and you know that's when there's always those conversations, Hey,
24:34
Speaker 1: can the Alabama Crimson Tide beat the Jacksonville Jaguars?
24:39
Speaker 4: What would the spread be?
24:41
Speaker 1: And I think the Jags were like something like twenty
24:46
Speaker 1: two to twenty three point underdogs to whoever the most
24:49
Speaker 1: dominant team was in twenty eighteen.
24:53
Speaker 7: Now, well, this is supposed to be a fun trivia
24:56
Speaker 7: question for you and Simon, but Colin ruined it. Of course,
25:02
Speaker 7: it was Jaggs Broncos two thousand and thirteen. At one
25:07
Speaker 7: point it was it was twenty eight, which is just stunning,
25:11
Speaker 7: they didn't cover. They won thirty five twenty or something
25:14
Speaker 7: like that and it closed I think twenty six and
25:17
Speaker 7: a half there. So the highest NFL spreads ever got
25:21
Speaker 7: up to his twenty eight. I think there was like
25:22
Speaker 7: a Steelers game or something way back and there was
25:24
Speaker 7: like twenty seven. So yeah, that's the highest spread in
25:28
Speaker 7: NFL history.
25:29
Speaker 6: Wasn't I the champion stumped the stuck during the pandemic?
25:32
Speaker 6: Wasn't I the champion?
25:34
Speaker 7: Well, we didn't, we didn't, we didn't. Yeah, we didn't finish,
25:36
Speaker 7: but I would have absolutely demolished you. But as I
25:42
Speaker 7: did on trivia last year on the copro of podcast,
25:44
Speaker 7: which we'll have this year again new BCS with Brett
25:46
Speaker 7: mc murphy.
25:47
Speaker 1: Those were those stumped stuck shows were just glorious days
25:53
Speaker 1: during the pandemic.
25:55
Speaker 3: Baseball nick soccer for me Australia.
25:59
Speaker 1: Football speak, and don't forget Russian ping pong y. Yeah,
26:04
Speaker 1: speaking of a pandemic, Colin, I would say one of
26:13
Speaker 1: the best things, best pieces of content we have are
26:17
Speaker 1: the voicemails and that we get from the listeners that
26:21
Speaker 1: you guys play on the Monday BBOC show, in which
26:25
Speaker 1: people are just so mad or happy and tell their
26:30
Speaker 1: stories about what happened. Inevitably, inevitably, somebody will either love
26:38
Speaker 1: you or hate you for Havoc. Yes, give me your
26:43
Speaker 1: favorite your favorite HAVOC teams this year. Explain to people
26:48
Speaker 1: what havoc is and how you will be playing any
26:51
Speaker 1: Havoc rankings this year.
26:53
Speaker 6: So, Havoc is a combination of tackles for loss, sacks,
26:56
Speaker 6: past breakups, anytime you do something to the defense that
26:59
Speaker 6: could call a turnover or causes a negative yard play.
27:02
Speaker 6: And you know passes defense is PBUs an interception, So
27:06
Speaker 6: all of those things play apart. They come in and
27:09
Speaker 6: I integrate them all I get, I wait them based
27:11
Speaker 6: upon you know, I mean, if it's an interception, it's
27:13
Speaker 6: a possession turnover, it's a tackle for loss. You know
27:15
Speaker 6: you got them behind the line of scrimmage. But it
27:17
Speaker 6: all calculates up. It's weighted into a Havoc ranking for
27:20
Speaker 6: the defense this year, by far, it's not close. It's
27:23
Speaker 6: Penn State. The Penn State defense is going to be
27:26
Speaker 6: number one in the nation and Havoc Manny Diaz did
27:28
Speaker 6: not have a good head coaching junior at Miami. He
27:31
Speaker 6: comes into play defensive coordinator which he's best at. Now
27:34
Speaker 6: he's defensive coordinator under James Franklin, and James Franklin doesn't
27:36
Speaker 6: have to worry about that defense. They have two corners
27:38
Speaker 6: that are going to play on the NFL level. They
27:40
Speaker 6: have linebackers are going to play on the NFL level.
27:42
Speaker 6: You do not want to throw against this team whatsoever.
27:45
Speaker 6: So I'm very high on Penn State. They are going
27:49
Speaker 6: to be the best havoc defense in the nation.
27:51
Speaker 2: You're not gonna be.
27:51
Speaker 6: Able to throw in their corners, and that's going to
27:53
Speaker 6: be a problem for Ohio State and in Michigan later down
27:54
Speaker 6: the road.
27:56
Speaker 1: Guess who's going to the Ohio State Penn State game.
27:59
Speaker 1: Guess which one of the four of us is doing that?
28:02
Speaker 3: Me?
28:03
Speaker 7: Well, some of us have to work on Saturdays, So.
28:06
Speaker 1: Chad Chad Milman is going to the Ohio State Penn
28:09
Speaker 1: State game. Chad Malman was a little nervous about it
28:11
Speaker 1: because my buddy, Matt, his kid is a sophomore at
28:18
Speaker 1: Ohio State and we're going to visit him. I'm incredibly nervous.
28:24
Speaker 1: As a guy who goes to bed at nine o'clock
28:26
Speaker 1: every night, I'm not sure I can last two nights
28:31
Speaker 1: in Columbus.
28:33
Speaker 3: I thought that was gonna be a game Time read.
28:36
Speaker 1: Oh my god, you know what, that's a good idea.
28:38
Speaker 4: Why don't I do it?
28:39
Speaker 1: Why don't I do a game Time read right now?
28:43
Speaker 1: Because simon, you know, game Time is the fastest growing
28:47
Speaker 1: ticketing app in the United States. They are our sponsor.
28:51
Speaker 1: I love game Time for so many reasons.
28:53
Speaker 4: It's very good chance.
28:54
Speaker 1: I'm buying tickets for Penn State, Ohio State on the
28:57
Speaker 1: game Time app. I love them because they spa the show.
29:01
Speaker 1: I actually use game Time to buy tickets. They've got
29:04
Speaker 1: amazing last minute deals on all sorts of tickets, including
29:09
Speaker 1: pro and college football games. They are truly amazing. I'm
29:15
Speaker 1: going to game Time right now. Of course I can
29:18
Speaker 1: get US Open Tennis championship tickets. I can also get
29:22
Speaker 1: Mets tickets. Tomorrow night, I can get I can see
29:25
Speaker 1: the Mets in New York six bucks. As I said
29:27
Speaker 1: in the previous show, if you're not going to Queens
29:32
Speaker 1: this weekend to watch the Mets in the US Open
29:34
Speaker 1: and using game Time to do it, you are freaking insane.
29:39
Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time app,
29:41
Speaker 1: get out, have some fun this week, Go sweat your
29:43
Speaker 1: bets live and in person, and you can redeem code
29:46
Speaker 1: favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms apply again.
29:51
Speaker 1: Just download the game Time app and enter code Favorites
29:55
Speaker 1: for twenty dollars off last minute ticket's lowest price guaranteed
29:59
Speaker 1: reminder the second time. I'm doing it for producer Tito.
30:03
Speaker 1: You can catch every episode of the Favorites live on YouTube.
30:06
Speaker 1: If you're watching us on YouTube right now, give us
30:08
Speaker 1: a like. We're giving you one hundred thousand dollars. You
30:10
Speaker 1: should like us. You subscribe to the Action Network YouTube.
30:15
Speaker 1: I have one more question for Stucky before we dig
30:18
Speaker 1: even deeper into best bets. Okay, So Tom Herman was
30:26
Speaker 1: a disaster at Texas, like I've heard from people in
30:30
Speaker 1: the athletic department, just complete disaster. Everybody hated him. He
30:35
Speaker 1: leaves Texas, Texas is now one of your favorite bets
30:39
Speaker 1: to win their conference. You also love Tom Herman in
30:43
Speaker 1: Florida Atlantic. Why do you love Tom Herman so much?
30:47
Speaker 7: Well, Tom Herman was a covering god as an underdog,
30:52
Speaker 7: so he won me a lot of money. And yeah,
30:56
Speaker 7: I mean some of like the Howie ran the team,
30:59
Speaker 7: and I've heard some bad things as well. But it's
31:03
Speaker 7: a lot easier of a job at Florida Atlantic than
31:07
Speaker 7: it is at Texas, And I'm sure he's learned a
31:11
Speaker 7: lot and I just really love the personnel that he's
31:15
Speaker 7: brought in. And I think this team has a ton
31:17
Speaker 7: of upside. And in regards to end their schedule, by
31:21
Speaker 7: the way, I mean they avoid half of the best
31:25
Speaker 7: teams in the conference. In the other half they get
31:27
Speaker 7: at home. It's a very, very favorable schedule. I think
31:30
Speaker 7: they're going to be in the mix. A ton of
31:32
Speaker 7: talent on that team. And then in regards to Texas,
31:35
Speaker 7: is Texas back well no Week two when they go
31:40
Speaker 7: to Alabama, a team that they should have been at
31:42
Speaker 7: home last year. Basically comes down to do Queen viewers
31:46
Speaker 7: take the next step in his passing development, mainly with
31:48
Speaker 7: his downfield passing where he really struggled last year with
31:51
Speaker 7: his footwork, so that he put the time in in
31:53
Speaker 7: the offseason. Kid with all the talent to really improve there.
31:57
Speaker 7: But this Texas team, Steve sarkisan Is has finally built
32:01
Speaker 7: this team out to SEC caliber before they actually make
32:04
Speaker 7: the switch. When you're talking the offensive line, which has
32:07
Speaker 7: been a problem in recent years of Texas now get
32:10
Speaker 7: argue it's a top five unit. They have the depth
32:13
Speaker 7: the defense now and then obviously the skill position talent
32:17
Speaker 7: where they are just head and shoulders above for the
32:20
Speaker 7: rest in the Big twelve. You know, Oklahoma is not
32:23
Speaker 7: where it once was. I think TCU takes a big
32:25
Speaker 7: step back. The Baylor d might be pretty bad, so
32:30
Speaker 7: like a lot of these other top teams, I think
32:31
Speaker 7: are going to take a step back. And this Texas
32:33
Speaker 7: team is just so complete. Last year was a disappointing year,
32:36
Speaker 7: but they were so close and lost so many one
32:38
Speaker 7: session games. I mean, this is a team that people
32:40
Speaker 7: would been talking about as a national title contender if
32:42
Speaker 7: they don't lose Tobama by one in a game where
32:44
Speaker 7: viewers got hurt. And then you know, a couple of
32:46
Speaker 7: weeks later, they lose to Texas Tech in overtime on
32:49
Speaker 7: it I think it was a Bijon Robinson fumble, which
32:51
Speaker 7: like never happens in overtime, So they were so close.
32:56
Speaker 7: The team is even better This year another year year
33:00
Speaker 7: for Quinn Yours. The ceiling is so high for this team.
33:04
Speaker 7: But even if they don't reach their full potential, I
33:06
Speaker 7: still think that they you know, or maybe close to
33:09
Speaker 7: when it's all said and done, a touchdown better than
33:14
Speaker 7: every other team in the conference. So around even money
33:17
Speaker 7: to win the Big Twelve. I would bet that and
33:20
Speaker 7: I collom into Penn State. I also love Penn State.
33:24
Speaker 7: I think they have a shot to make some noise
33:26
Speaker 7: on a national level, So I don't mind some Penn
33:30
Speaker 7: State futures. And when you're going to that Penn State
33:31
Speaker 7: Ohio State game in Ohio State questions a quarterback after
33:34
Speaker 7: losing Stroup, make sure on the game Time app you
33:38
Speaker 7: can see the you know, you can see your where
33:41
Speaker 7: you're sitting in the view. There's a couple of seats
33:43
Speaker 7: in the horseshoe, which is awesome. I think like on
33:46
Speaker 7: one of the like a B deck or somewhere you
33:47
Speaker 7: can get like blocked by pillars. So make sure. I'm
33:49
Speaker 7: sure you're probably sitting front row or something.
33:52
Speaker 1: But I use I use that feature in the game
33:55
Speaker 1: Time app, like when I went to the Mariners game
33:58
Speaker 1: over the summer with my kid, and like I was
34:01
Speaker 1: totally absolutely looking at the three sixty views and checking
34:06
Speaker 1: it out. It's a great feature in the game Time
34:08
Speaker 1: Appen Colin, I know, I know, Simon wants to ask you,
34:11
Speaker 1: like very specifically about week won best Bets, but you
34:13
Speaker 1: were just shaking your head about Texas. So I want
34:16
Speaker 1: to hear we have to say about Texas. I also
34:18
Speaker 1: want I want to hear we have to say arch Manning, like,
34:21
Speaker 1: what do we think? What did you see in the preseason?
34:25
Speaker 1: Is this a guy who's going to be everything that
34:27
Speaker 1: everyone says he can be.
34:29
Speaker 6: It's to be determined. He has the pedigree, he has
34:32
Speaker 6: he can be talented. But remember quinn Ewers struggled. He
34:35
Speaker 6: came out, I didn't even play a senior year of
34:36
Speaker 6: high school, went to a house States sat and then
34:39
Speaker 6: he had his freshman year last year at Texas and
34:41
Speaker 6: it just wasn't the quinn Ewrs that we saw with
34:43
Speaker 6: the recruiting rankings. And I think we're going to see
34:44
Speaker 6: a lot of that with arch Manning, which is the
34:46
Speaker 6: reason he's second strength. I would argue he's probably third
34:49
Speaker 6: string because Malik Murphy is the one that's ready to
34:51
Speaker 6: put in some playing time. We'll see what the order
34:53
Speaker 6: is against Rice, but quinn yours the white snake hair
34:56
Speaker 6: is gone, you know, the rock and roll, the Lucy
34:59
Speaker 6: Goosey's gone. He is all professional. He's got abs of steel,
35:02
Speaker 6: He's got you know, eight pack abs. I love Texas.
35:05
Speaker 6: It was the very first everybody was betting on the
35:08
Speaker 6: Kentucky Derby earlier in May. That's when all the lines
35:11
Speaker 6: opened up. I saw Texas plus one fifty to win
35:13
Speaker 6: the Big Twelve. I immediately got in my car and
35:15
Speaker 6: drove to an adjacent state to throw some dimes down
35:18
Speaker 6: because that number was stupid. And so, you know, as
35:22
Speaker 6: I started to tell everybody was watching horses, and I
35:24
Speaker 6: started to tweet out and tell everybody is a really
35:26
Speaker 6: bad Texas number got to one twenty, it got to
35:28
Speaker 6: plus one ten. I argue that the round robin format
35:32
Speaker 6: of the Big Twelve, there's no way Texas is finishing
35:34
Speaker 6: third in this conference. So minus one twenty is your bypoint.
35:37
Speaker 6: You can still go by it. Go buy Texas. Because
35:39
Speaker 6: the gap between the Longhorns and the rest of this
35:42
Speaker 6: conference is massive, stuck. He says seven points between them
35:45
Speaker 6: in Oklahoma. I make it a little like nine, and
35:47
Speaker 6: then the rest of the conference can't even catch them.
35:49
Speaker 2: And I think, you know.
35:50
Speaker 6: Like I said, I don't want to fry anybody's bearing
35:52
Speaker 6: with mathematics, but I use the five factors, the finishing
35:55
Speaker 6: drives a success rate. They were top twenty in all
35:57
Speaker 6: those categories last year.
35:58
Speaker 2: They're going to put it together this year.
35:59
Speaker 7: So I loved Yeah. To your point, it's something in
36:03
Speaker 7: the note is you asked about arch Manning, who obviously
36:06
Speaker 7: has the pedigree, and you know you have Malik Murphy
36:11
Speaker 7: as well. That's an enormous safety net. Right when you're
36:15
Speaker 7: betting a future or just you know, evaluating a team
36:18
Speaker 7: in general. Quin Ewers has the experience and he is
36:22
Speaker 7: most likely the quarterback that needs to lead them to
36:25
Speaker 7: reach their full potential. But when you're talking about winning
36:27
Speaker 7: the Big twelve and just a team in general, many
36:30
Speaker 7: teams of college football, just like in the NFL, say
36:33
Speaker 7: their starting quarterback goes down with an injury, they're done, right,
36:37
Speaker 7: Like how many games of the Chiefs winning if Mahomes
36:39
Speaker 7: gets hurt?
36:40
Speaker 6: Like four?
36:42
Speaker 7: So but with Texas, if a guy like arch Manning
36:46
Speaker 7: is your third string quarterback, right so even if you
36:49
Speaker 7: were struggles or viewers gets hurt like that quarterback depth,
36:52
Speaker 7: that's a beautiful safety net to have and a great
36:56
Speaker 7: luxury that many teams don't.
36:57
Speaker 2: And is it ties.
36:59
Speaker 6: In the NFL, Like when you lose b Jhon Robinson
37:02
Speaker 6: as a running back who's like number one everybody's fantasy board.
37:05
Speaker 6: Texas is not even going to skip a beat. They
37:06
Speaker 6: have four running backs that can be as good, if
37:09
Speaker 6: not already as good as b John Robinson.
37:11
Speaker 1: Stuck Legal Betting coming to Kentucky.
37:15
Speaker 2: We're excited.
37:16
Speaker 1: We're Simon and I are gonna come celebrate that with
37:19
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell as we did last fall, and we're gonna
37:21
Speaker 1: make Colin Wilson and Brett McMurphy come visit to Simon.
37:25
Speaker 1: I've been cutting in part Oh, we're all staying at
37:28
Speaker 1: the Stuck You Mansion.
37:31
Speaker 7: Ye party of stagger In, and we're going.
37:33
Speaker 1: To stagger into the stagger In. Simon, I was cutting
37:38
Speaker 1: you off.
37:38
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go. I'm gonna do what you wanna do. Chad,
37:41
Speaker 3: do you want to talk about their best bets? But
37:43
Speaker 3: we're forty minutes in Chad, and I got to talk
37:45
Speaker 3: about this LSU Florida State game. It is every pro
37:48
Speaker 3: I've talked to. I think this is the biggest pros
37:51
Speaker 3: verse jokes any prov talk to is on Florida State.
37:55
Speaker 3: Every Joe public I've talked to, they're like easy spatter
37:57
Speaker 3: in my life. LSU under a field, Colin, We'll start
38:01
Speaker 3: with you. How are you approaching this game? I mean
38:04
Speaker 3: it's rare we get a five to eight matchup Week one.
38:06
Speaker 3: You know, the college football put this in the schedule
38:08
Speaker 3: for a reason. This is good, This is this is
38:10
Speaker 3: why we love college football. So you know, looking at this,
38:14
Speaker 3: this is a stinky line, and I can see why
38:15
Speaker 3: the pros love Florida State. Again, I don't know much
38:17
Speaker 3: about either team. Is that the right read is Florida
38:20
Speaker 3: State to play in this? Or is LSU being slept on?
38:23
Speaker 6: There's two reasons why you're betting Florida State. I'm betting
38:25
Speaker 6: Florida State. I would just like a three. I'm probably
38:27
Speaker 6: not gonna get it, but I'll bet any plus number.
38:29
Speaker 6: This game should should be neutral. I mean, there's so
38:32
Speaker 6: much NFL talent on both sides that really cancels each
38:34
Speaker 6: other out. The line should be a pick. So if
38:36
Speaker 6: you're gonna give me points, I'm gonna take it. But
38:38
Speaker 6: more specifically, you want to break down x's and o's.
38:41
Speaker 6: LSU wants to run inside zone with Jayden Daniels and
38:43
Speaker 6: that's not gonna work against Florida State's front seven, which
38:46
Speaker 6: is just massive. You're gonna hear about Jared Vers at
38:48
Speaker 6: the NFL level. And then if you go to the
38:50
Speaker 6: other side of the ball, Florida State, Jordan Trafs are
38:53
Speaker 6: gonna be able to get down the field with these
38:54
Speaker 6: wide receivers against a Juco fresh faced I'm not sure
38:58
Speaker 6: if some of these kids are shaving in the LSU secondary.
39:02
Speaker 6: LSU is going to be hot and sec play. They
39:04
Speaker 6: need some experience in that back seven, and they just
39:06
Speaker 6: they don't have it right now. And plus the world
39:08
Speaker 6: loves Harold Perkins. He might be the number one pick
39:10
Speaker 6: in the NFL draft, but he's a great run walker
39:13
Speaker 6: and he runs sideline to sideline. He's not very good
39:15
Speaker 6: in coverage unless he's you know, worked on that in
39:17
Speaker 6: the offseason. So Florists A can get down the field here.
39:20
Speaker 6: They've got the weapons to do it. As to were
39:22
Speaker 6: what LSU wants to do on offense, Florist say is
39:24
Speaker 6: pretty good at stopping.
39:26
Speaker 7: Do you know that's that's the sound of Colin backtracking
39:30
Speaker 7: after during the summer, I told him LSU's is overrated,
39:36
Speaker 7: and he told me LSU's gone to the College twelve
39:38
Speaker 7: playoff winning the national title now and now he's fading
39:42
Speaker 7: them in Week one as a favorite under a field goal.
39:45
Speaker 7: But I agree, I think this LSU team is overrated.
39:49
Speaker 7: Last year, they they could have lost three to four
39:52
Speaker 7: more games. I mean they almost lost the Colins Arkansas
39:54
Speaker 7: team who didn't even have their quarterback, and they got
39:58
Speaker 7: They got pretty fortunate in the number of games. I
40:02
Speaker 7: think they're You know, Brian Kelly is a great higher
40:04
Speaker 7: and he's also a covering god. For what it's worth,
40:07
Speaker 7: he's the second most profitable coach against the spread, uh
40:10
Speaker 7: since two thousand and five in all of college football.
40:12
Speaker 7: That's like five hundred and seventy five coaches. The first,
40:15
Speaker 7: by the way, Colin mentioned, uh shaving in Youngstown, Ohio
40:20
Speaker 7: legend Jim Tressel is the most profitable. But I agree
40:23
Speaker 7: with Florida State here.
40:24
Speaker 4: I actually see what we did there.
40:27
Speaker 7: Yeah, Colin said the secondary might not be shaving you.
40:30
Speaker 7: We got to watch your play on words there when
40:33
Speaker 7: we talk about betting. But uh yeah, I think Florida State.
40:37
Speaker 7: The key to this game is will can they establish
40:39
Speaker 7: the run Keith Perkins and those other great LAC linebackers,
40:43
Speaker 7: you know, prevent them from pinning their ears back on
40:45
Speaker 7: known passing downs and getting into the backfield, creating havoc
40:49
Speaker 7: as Colin alluded to against Jordan Travis. But I think
40:52
Speaker 7: Florida State will be able to establish the run here,
40:55
Speaker 7: open up the platch, and open up some deep shots
40:57
Speaker 7: with a really good wide receiver room against a very
41:02
Speaker 7: inexperienced new Newish put together LSU secondary that I think
41:06
Speaker 7: is vulnerable. So I agree, I think Florida State wins
41:08
Speaker 7: this game. It's sitting at two and a half right now.
41:11
Speaker 7: I'm waiting, so we have all the way until Sunday.
41:14
Speaker 7: You know, maybe you'll you'll get some There's no real
41:16
Speaker 7: harm in waiting right now and betting right now and waiting.
41:20
Speaker 7: So I'm gonna see if hey, look, you said all
41:23
Speaker 7: of the jos. We'll see how much Joe money can
41:25
Speaker 7: actually influence this line. Once we get to Sunday. People
41:29
Speaker 7: may be chasing after losing Saturday and saying it's just
41:31
Speaker 7: Elsia needed to win by three. Maybe this line touches three.
41:35
Speaker 7: I assume whenever it does, you've got to be quick,
41:37
Speaker 7: but put the alerts on line movement on the action
41:39
Speaker 7: network gap to get that three even three minus one
41:43
Speaker 7: fifteen I would love because I think once at any
41:45
Speaker 7: time it hits threes, you're gonna get professional money scooping
41:48
Speaker 7: that up. But I think Florida State's the right side.
41:51
Speaker 4: All right.
41:52
Speaker 1: So Saturday, I'm gonna be sitting on my couch stuck.
41:57
Speaker 4: What am I betting?
41:58
Speaker 1: One of my best bets are going to see popping
42:00
Speaker 1: up in the Action Network gap from Stuckey.
42:03
Speaker 7: I'll give you a one that I haven't bet yet
42:05
Speaker 7: that I'm going to bet is this is the Favorites podcast.
42:09
Speaker 7: I got to give you a big favor and we
42:11
Speaker 7: were talking about giant spreads. So how about Alabama minus,
42:16
Speaker 7: you know, close to forty. I'm trying to see if
42:19
Speaker 7: it comes down to thirty eight again. But if it's
42:22
Speaker 7: set thirty nine, thirty nine and a half where it
42:24
Speaker 7: is now, that's where I will fire. They are playing
42:28
Speaker 7: a Middle Tennessee state team, the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders,
42:32
Speaker 7: that I think is going to be really bad. The
42:35
Speaker 7: defense that got really lucky in the takeaway department last year.
42:37
Speaker 7: They lose their sack leader to the NFL. They lose
42:40
Speaker 7: their top corner who let fbs and interceptions. He transferred
42:42
Speaker 7: to UCF and so I think the defense takes a
42:45
Speaker 7: big step back and then lose their starting quarterback Cunningham.
42:48
Speaker 7: They lose their top three targets ones in the NFL,
42:51
Speaker 7: one transfer to Virginia Tech, and another graduated. And this
42:54
Speaker 7: is the team that can't run the ball because they're
42:55
Speaker 7: off its line, can't run block. I don't know how
42:57
Speaker 7: they're going to move the ball against Alabama. And I
43:00
Speaker 7: think Alabama. They've spent the whole summer hearing Alabama's taking
43:05
Speaker 7: a step back. You know, it's now Georgia back to
43:08
Speaker 7: back national titles. I think they come out with a
43:11
Speaker 7: purpose here. This happened last year. You could say, hey,
43:14
Speaker 7: Alabama is Texas on deck, and they might you know,
43:17
Speaker 7: bring their pull their starters a little early, not show much.
43:20
Speaker 7: But they were in the same exact spot last year
43:22
Speaker 7: with Bryce Young as the quarterback.
43:23
Speaker 2: They already had a known.
43:24
Speaker 7: Now they have two to three guys so we're going
43:26
Speaker 7: to play the whole game at quarterback who were in
43:27
Speaker 7: the competition. So I think they're gonna be They're not
43:31
Speaker 7: gonna take their foot off the gas until really relate.
43:33
Speaker 7: But last year in the same spot and Brycetonge basically
43:35
Speaker 7: didn't play the entire second half similar spread against Utah State,
43:39
Speaker 7: they won fifty five to nothing. And if you go
43:42
Speaker 7: back since two thousand and five, the most profitable Week
43:47
Speaker 7: one coach against the spread in college football is Nick Saban.
43:51
Speaker 7: Since arriving in Tuscaloosa, he is thirteen and two against
43:56
Speaker 7: the spread in season openers, covering by about eight points
44:01
Speaker 7: per game. That includes four to zer against the spread,
44:03
Speaker 7: one favor by more than thirty and he's just been
44:07
Speaker 7: a covering machine. Has his teams ready to come out
44:10
Speaker 7: at the gates with our hair on fire, which I
44:11
Speaker 7: think is even more of the case this year after
44:14
Speaker 7: all the rumblings about Alabama taking a step back. So yeah,
44:18
Speaker 7: I think that they absolutely hammer MTSU.
44:23
Speaker 1: Alabama minus forty is so disgusting. It's exactly the kind
44:27
Speaker 1: of thing I need to do when I'm sitting on
44:30
Speaker 1: the couch eating my specialty roasted spiced mixed nuts that
44:36
Speaker 1: I made from the New York Times cooking app. Colin, Yeah,
44:41
Speaker 1: give me one.
44:43
Speaker 6: I'm gonna give you two quick ones, and they're gonna
44:45
Speaker 6: be West Coast.
44:45
Speaker 1: Then Colin is a comrade in arms when it comes
44:51
Speaker 1: to thoughtful eating.
44:53
Speaker 4: I know this.
44:53
Speaker 1: He and I have talked about this so much like
44:56
Speaker 1: he cares about what he puts in his body. He's
44:59
Speaker 1: measuring it down to the gram. Signon, don't give me
45:02
Speaker 1: that look when I'm talking about the spiced mixed nuts
45:06
Speaker 1: that I'm making myself, because Colin is the exact same way.
45:09
Speaker 1: He's even crazier. He measures his food how.
45:12
Speaker 3: We'll be eating meat though on Saturday. So that's what
45:14
Speaker 3: I was offended by. Saturday's reading meat, Chad, you gotta
45:17
Speaker 3: eat meat and watch football.
45:18
Speaker 6: Well, I'll get to two hundred protein grams, then I
45:21
Speaker 6: gotta stop eating chicken.
45:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I count out my wall. I count
45:24
Speaker 2: out everything that I.
45:25
Speaker 6: Eat, which is I'm glad I've lost thirty pounds in
45:27
Speaker 6: the offseason. But now here we are, I will see
45:29
Speaker 6: if I put it back on.
45:30
Speaker 1: This is the test, Colin.
45:31
Speaker 6: Yeah, I almost thought about making a burner Twitter account
45:35
Speaker 6: so I could just talk about my health, like what
45:36
Speaker 6: am I doing for health during football season?
45:38
Speaker 2: But we'll see. I'm gonna get two.
45:41
Speaker 6: Quick that's on the West Coast favorites. I'm gonna go Washington,
45:43
Speaker 6: I'm gonna go Ucla and really, let me talk about
45:46
Speaker 6: the other teams. Dirk Cotter was calling plays offensively for
45:49
Speaker 6: Boise State.
45:50
Speaker 2: He's gone.
45:50
Speaker 6: They bring in Bush Hampden Hamden is putting a bunch
45:54
Speaker 6: of priorities pre snap on the center. Well, their main
45:57
Speaker 6: center wasn't even on the two deep depth chart. We
45:59
Speaker 6: don't know why they're not disclosing it. So they're moving
46:01
Speaker 6: the right guard over. He's never played center in his life.
46:03
Speaker 6: Washington is absolutely gonna roll them. Then you go down
46:06
Speaker 6: to Westwood, UCLA, and you know, I go back to
46:09
Speaker 6: the theory of I want to back teams that are favorites,
46:12
Speaker 6: that have three quarterbacks that need to play well. Ucla
46:14
Speaker 6: is gonna have Ethan Garber start, then Colin Schlee from
46:16
Speaker 6: Kent State. But then if you're an NFL person, sit
46:18
Speaker 6: back and get ready for Dante Moore, true freshman, highest
46:21
Speaker 6: rating ever for recruit.
46:24
Speaker 2: He is going to be something special.
46:25
Speaker 6: Coastal Carolina comes in, they're under new management, and everybody
46:28
Speaker 6: loves Grayson McCall, but that Jamie Chadwell offense with all
46:31
Speaker 6: that motion and misdirection and just crazy triple in space,
46:34
Speaker 6: it's gone. It's gonna be vanilla. It's not gonna be pretty.
46:37
Speaker 6: And plus Coastal Carolina is breaking in two new corners
46:40
Speaker 6: that have never played before that are like five foot nine.
46:44
Speaker 6: That's problem against UCLA out on the West coast. So
46:46
Speaker 6: take Ucilli and Washington late at night.
46:48
Speaker 1: What does that mean? Dante Moore is the highest rating
46:52
Speaker 1: ever for freshman like for UCLA for a quarterback like.
46:55
Speaker 6: No, so Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence were ninety nine
46:58
Speaker 6: point nine nine nine nine nine and the recruiting, well,
47:01
Speaker 6: Dante More is one hundred, which not not lying. So
47:05
Speaker 6: get settled in with UCLA and when his he's not
47:07
Speaker 6: gonna start, Chip's gonna roll. I mean I talked to
47:09
Speaker 6: Chip at Pack told media days cash your tickets stuck? Uh,
47:12
Speaker 6: And I asked Chip Kelly.
47:13
Speaker 2: I was like, what's the plan with Dante Moore?
47:15
Speaker 6: Because DTR played a lot during his freshman year and
47:17
Speaker 6: and Chip Kelly was, you know, told me flat out
47:19
Speaker 6: he's like we tried. I tried to hold DTR back
47:22
Speaker 6: as much as possible, protect him as a freshman, but
47:24
Speaker 6: it was around game six or seven where it was
47:26
Speaker 6: like it was his job, it was go time. He's
47:28
Speaker 6: just way more special. Well, now Chip Kelly gets blessed
47:31
Speaker 6: with Dante Moore. The kid is going to be unbelievable.
47:35
Speaker 6: So get your popcorn, gets your uh, your nuts, get everything,
47:38
Speaker 6: by the way.
47:39
Speaker 7: Accurate he is, by the way, because yeah, ninety nine
47:42
Speaker 7: point nine nine, nine years later and justin Field still
47:45
Speaker 7: is inaccurate.
47:46
Speaker 1: But oh oh no, no, no, no, no no, we're
47:50
Speaker 1: not doing justin Fields violence on this show. We only
47:56
Speaker 1: do justin Fields is going to be very accurate because
47:59
Speaker 1: he's got a all Pro receiver and DJ Moore, who
48:03
Speaker 1: is going to help him, whose catch radius is so
48:05
Speaker 1: much better than anyone who's ever had. He will actually
48:08
Speaker 1: be elevated as an accurate passer. It's all We're gonna say. Stuck,
48:12
Speaker 1: We're not doing justin Fields. You know it will.
48:17
Speaker 7: Packers week one, Lou.
48:18
Speaker 4: It's also oh Jesus Christ, well listen.
48:22
Speaker 1: You can listen to I can listen to you and
48:23
Speaker 1: raybon argue about that on the Action Network podcast on
48:27
Speaker 1: Thursdays heading into the football season, which is also one
48:30
Speaker 1: of my favorite podcasts to listen to and prep for
48:35
Speaker 1: next week.
48:35
Speaker 7: What we do, by the way, when we're doing the
48:36
Speaker 7: six pack live, yep, that's right, listen to Wednesday night,
48:41
Speaker 7: so keep an eye off for that.
48:43
Speaker 1: Listen to that. You can watch it on YouTube. You
48:45
Speaker 1: can watch it in the Action Network app. It's gonna
48:47
Speaker 1: be awesome. Also, I like your reference to being at
48:52
Speaker 1: media days Colin h Listen, what was it five years ago?
48:57
Speaker 1: You're just some schmuck flying around as a consultant writing
49:00
Speaker 1: out ratings and longhand and now you're an actual reporter
49:04
Speaker 1: covering media days and still a Yeah.
49:07
Speaker 6: In twenty seventeen, I produced one hundred and fifty page
49:09
Speaker 6: Google doc for free and just linked it out to
49:12
Speaker 6: like what four hundred followers on Twitter. So yeah, things
49:15
Speaker 6: have changed. It's a little bit media Day talking to
49:17
Speaker 6: Chip Kelly.
49:18
Speaker 1: By the way, this is why people hate the media.
49:21
Speaker 1: Simon has a massive podcast. Really, he was a grip
49:26
Speaker 1: for you know, the Jersey Shore, became a professional better
49:31
Speaker 1: Stucky Stuckey has a made up name and had a
49:35
Speaker 1: Twitter account that was private that had tens of thousands
49:37
Speaker 1: of followers and was working in finance. Colin was a consultant.
49:42
Speaker 1: Only one of us has dedicated his career to journalism.
49:46
Speaker 1: I'm the least expert and the least popular of anybody
49:50
Speaker 1: on this show right now. It's freaking ridiculous, by the way,
49:53
Speaker 1: absolutely ridiculous.
49:55
Speaker 7: I've got all twenty years posting bets online. So forums
49:59
Speaker 7: back in high school, when I was in two thousand
50:01
Speaker 7: and three is when I started. It's pretty crazy, and
50:04
Speaker 7: I'm certainly fortunate to have gotten in when I did,
50:08
Speaker 7: because now it's everyone wants to get into the sports
50:11
Speaker 7: betting space, and a lot of life is just being
50:15
Speaker 7: in the right place at the right time. So definitely
50:17
Speaker 7: blessed in that area.
50:18
Speaker 1: Everyone thinks they're an expert. Now you know who the
50:21
Speaker 1: real experts are, Simon, you know who the real experts are,
50:25
Speaker 1: Colin Wilson, Stuckey, and you. I'm glad you guys were
50:29
Speaker 1: all on the podcast today. I'm going to remind everybody.
50:33
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Speaker 1: Also also in case you came into the middle, In
51:03
Speaker 1: case you fast forward through the first ten minutes.
51:06
Speaker 4: We did it.
51:07
Speaker 1: We did it.
51:07
Speaker 4: We did it.
51:09
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