Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / El Niño: What it means for U.S. Grain

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El Niño: What it means for U.S. Grain · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: You're locked in to the Grain Market Talk Podcast.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Fast updates, market movers, and the green news you need right now.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: Well, good afternoon, everybody, and well, thanks for joining the Grain Market Talk Podcast here with Professional Egg Marketing.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_01: My name is Lucas Peters, and we got a little freaky Friday action going on here.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_01: We got our guest, Mike Minor, joining us.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: How are we doing, Mike?
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_01: We're doing pretty good today.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_01: Good to be on the other side of the table.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, good.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_01: It's good.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_01: Always good to talk to you, Mike, uh, and fill in for you every now and then.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_01: So uh had a you know kind of a uh interesting week, I'm gonna say.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_01: We have a lot of different topics to go through here.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_01: And let's start off with uh, you know, we are kind of approaching now we're at the middle of September, uh, getting trying to get ramped up into the harvest season.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, what are the guys saying for uh what's going on out there with harvest on the customers you've been talking to, Mike?
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_02: Besides a little frustrating, yeah.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, in this part of the world, uh, in the past week I had farmers tell me they've received more rain in the last week than they have pretty much the entirety of the growing season here.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_02: So after it looked like we were gonna get done uh by October with harvest for some of these folks, looks like we're still not gonna get started for a lot of people until probably the end or middle of next week there.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_02: It does look like we're gonna be pretty open on the weather forecast going forward next week, after about Monday.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_02: So hopefully that can stay dry at this point.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_02: Crop is what it is, most of the green is out of it.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_02: Uh early soybean harvest has started a little bit.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe some fee people taking out some wetter cornfields as well.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_02: Uh some stuff coming out around 20% on the corn and some uh coming out on the soybeans still okay around 14%, which is just fine.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_02: Uh when I hear yields one, it's all over the board.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, there's no consistency to it besides inconsistency, I'd have to say.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_02: Yep.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_02: But um where your crop was planted date wise with number uh seems to have a lot to do with how it ended up uh pollinating around that hot week that we had.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_02: So uh some areas, for example, the April 15th through like 20th, for some folks locally, that corn looks pretty good.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_02: Uh the stuff planted after that hit a hot streak there in pollination at the wrong time, it looks like.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_02: So uh a planting date had a lot to do with that from just early takes here on this market.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_02: But overall, broad United States.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_02: Uh here good corn, here bad corn, uh mainly in the western corn belt, though.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_02: I I am hearing though, we had a ton of old crop carryovers still from this last year.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_02: I still have guys hauling in old crop corn to elevators, and uh that carryover is gonna help a lot, especially in the western corn belt here.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_02: And uh that's been able to keep basis a little weaker in the western corn belt on corn.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_02: Soybeans, it's the exact opposite.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_02: The the processors ran out of soybeans about three weeks ago, and uh they are just living hand to mouth here uh in the meantime, Lucas.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_01: Yep, but the process soybean processors are probably the ones that are really cursing this weather most right now.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: Uh and it's it's it's interesting, like you know, we're our office is in Laverne, Minnesota, right?
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_01: So uh just kind of looking back, uh in in the city of Laverne, uh over the last 30 days were about five and three-quarters inches of rain.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_01: And that uh, of course, we needed it, like right.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, but to your point earlier, we aren't doing the crop much good anymore.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the corn crop is was black layered around the first part of September.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_01: Soybeans are now mature enough where you know, harvest, if it dries up, most fields can be knocked out here in the next 10 days to two weeks.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_01: Um, the uh uh driving around a little bit more, uh I I agree with you.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_01: There's some wet corn going out, some of the early beans are going out.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_01: Planting date and maturity are uh the book's still to be written, right?
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_01: Um a lot of these fields that guys are getting into, um, yeah, they're like, well, maybe this is the going to be the high-yielding uh way it was this year, like uh early corn planted early or an early bean planted early.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_01: Um, a lot of that has still has to be written.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_01: I would think intuitively, if your beans were still pretty green when it started raining, they should be a little better than the ones that were more mature.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, an interesting thing that I think we will see just based on the amount of moisture we have this year and looking ahead to the forecast, if you think back our last two soybean harvests, we went from green crop to dead crop, and moisture is dropping faster than you were able to harvest it, right?
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_01: You'd you'd start combine and one day it's 13%, and a day later it's eight percent.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, I don't think we're gonna have that this year, right?
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_01: It's there's enough moisture in the air now, there's enough moisture in the ground.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: If you look at high temperatures over the next couple of weeks, anyway, if you believe the forecast, uh, you're in the upper 60s, low 70s most of the time.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, that's a big change than it has been the last two years, which should be good to hold the moisture in a more reasonable level for the soybeans, hopefully bring up a yield a little bit.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_01: And this weather pattern we're in uh is definitely El Nino-ish, right?
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_01: Uh that has been our talking point for quite a while.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and now it's even hitting the national news.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_01: This, you know, Monster El Nino or the Godzilla El Nino that's gonna happen.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_01: And so, what what normally happens in big El Nino years is in our part of the world, we get cooler and wetter falls.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_01: Well, so far, uh, I wouldn't say we've been cool, but we've definitely turned wetter.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_01: And so that would be something to watch over the next few weeks, months.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I I would expect October maybe to be a little cooler than average, maybe kind of keep up with this little bit of rainfall, but it also brings milder winters.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_01: So it might be kind of this thing where October turns a little cool, and then we're like, oh, November feels warm and December feels warm, and we're just kind of the same temperature.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_01: So something to watch out for uh as we definitely get into this little this this mega El Nino we're in.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_01: Um and and I'll hurdle this on the conference this week, and I know we shared it.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_01: El Nino's usually peak right at Christmas, so that's when we'll start uh uh potentially weakening this El Nino and going back into more of a neutral pattern.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_02: So that's very key when you start looking at the South America growing season as well.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_02: They're just starting to plant soybeans uh in that type of year, Lucas.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_02: What did you learn that looks like for weather?
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_01: So the uh in big strong El Nino years in South America, generally you get a really wet Argentina and a really dry Brazil.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_01: Something to watch out for here.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_01: I'd say that's something we got to keep our eye out on.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_01: Uh it also, uh, and I'll wrap up my El Nino talk here.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, what what I heard is generally in the United States, years following strong El Nino are really good growing seasons, right?
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_01: So uh based on history would suggest next year should be pretty favorable for most of the U.S.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_01: for crop.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_02: 2015 was a big one last time.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_02: So 2016 we had a big crop.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, yeah.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_01: That's that's the that's the most recent example we have, and uh agreed with you.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_01: We had a big crop in 16.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, all right, enough weather talk, Mike.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get into these markets.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_01: Last Friday we had this much anticipated WASDA report.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_01: Everybody was excited for it, saying, here's we're either going to turn this more bullish or turn it around.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_01: And it was kind of a dud uh when the report came out.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_01: Now that we've digested it for a week now, what was the market reaction we had this week to the WASD last Friday?
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_02: Not a whole lot of anything, which I think was key because when we were following up the WASJ report, it I was really curious on the market direction going forward here, following that up.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_02: Uh what's the market gonna think about a falling yield in the United States?
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_02: Do they think it's gonna continue?
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_02: Tight ending stocks, is that gonna continue?
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, or do the funds think this isn't enough to give us gas towards the end to keep holding our long positions?
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, this week it did virtually nothing and uh had no real direction, maybe slightly a smidge lower as the week went on.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but as we look forward, uh you know, I'll have Cade pull up just a tweet from Arlen uh as he broke down, you know, the last 30 years when we've had eight times when we've had yield drop in August and September reports, the end of the year in the January final crop report, seven of those eight years that yield was higher than what the September report was.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_02: The one year we didn't, it was 0.9 lower in that year.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_02: This could be the one-off year, right?
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_02: This could be the one year where you drop from this report.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_02: But I thought just looking forward, what does this historically mean when we find lower yields in consecutive reports?
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_02: What does that usually mean for end-of-the-year yields as we go forward?
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_02: And uh, we wouldn't typically end up 2.3 bushels above where that September number was.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_02: So that's something to look forward to that gets you back above 180 on the yield.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_02: Either way, if we're a 177 or a 180 balance sheet, looks pretty similar by the end of this discussion, I would assume.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_02: So I thought that was kind of interesting.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_02: The market reaction, though, if you pull up the futures uh chart as well, the only line I have up there is a 20-day moving average.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_02: And I feel like this gives us just enough what we needed uh to send a clear picture that just this market's giving up a little bit.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_02: That 20-day moving average, we're trading and closed below it, never traded above it today.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_02: Pretty clear technical indicator that it was bearish.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_02: That 528 level, if we closed below that, it just wasn't very friendly.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_02: And we closed the week below that.
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_02: So with that being the case, not the best technical week on the corn market here, a lot of different influences on it, but just technically how we followed up the Wazir port last week, a little bit bearish uh technically on these corn futures, Lucas.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_01: Well, of course, one of the big cliches here is uh bull market needs to get fed every day, and we just didn't get much to feed the the corn market this week, uh, did we?
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_01: Uh maybe a little bit opposite uh of as far as action or uh or volatility or movement is in the soy complex and probably led by the meal market, as we were talking earlier, Mike.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, give me a little update on what's going on in the soybeans.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_02: So there's a few different things kind of uh swinging this market around.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_02: It was a really volatile week, uh really sharp tug of war between some upside and downside pressures this week.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_02: We had some supply-side data, we had weather-driven crop adjustments and really heavy spec trading all going on at once.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_02: But uh the the start and big focus of the week was right in the middle of the week.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_02: On the 15th of September, we had a NOPA crush report that came out.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_02: And with that crush report, it just showed that uh we dropped.
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_02: It was only 205.5 million bushels of soybeans that were crushed in August, and that was well below the expectations.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_02: That specifically pushed soybean meal really, really hard.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, that pushed meal to a two and a half year high, uh highest intraday level we've had since June 24, uh 2024.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_02: So that was uh well worth well worth noting, just that that number came in well below expectations, um, much lower than anticipated there.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_02: So that really gave a new spur of buying towards the middle of the week.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_02: And then right after that, you know, that was kind of post WAS day.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_02: We had a yield tug of war there a little bit with that as well, because we did have yield as show kind of a bumper crop on soybeans at 52.8, just under the old record.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but then, you know, we've got kind of some late season hot and dry weather in the U.S.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_02: that was occurring before this, and ratings were slipping to 58%.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_02: So there's a sense that they did post a pretty big number in that report, but is it gonna stick?
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_02: So that some of that was getting traded as well.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_02: We've had really strong China buying lately.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_02: That's been helping.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_02: They're probably gonna be 60% of their 2025, uh, 2020 uh 6-27 target that they're talking about of 25 million metric tons by this next dra meeting occurring next week with uh Trump and G, which that is well preparation going into it.
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_02: Some of this overnight kind of Friday sluggish trade that we've had in soybeans and meal was that it looks like the the US is going to hold off on any tariffs activity until after that meeting, they said, uh, just holding that potentially for leverage.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_02: Anytime you hear about Trump using tariffs as leverage, not bullish soybeans.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_02: So, with that being the case as well, I think we traded that a little bit today, along with this last uh CFTC report that we had, the commitment of traders, it showed that we had a record net long on corn and soybeans and soybean meal in that report.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_02: So probably a little just profit taking after this massive run-up we've had as well going into this weekend.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_02: Yep.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, and so kind of wrapping up the other hot talking point this week, uh, and it's been that way for a while, but it's gotten a lot of attention this week, is diesel fuel price, right?
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_01: So uh even if if you as a farmer, you know, you're looking at uh this time of the year, uh you got combines running, grain carts running, semis running, uh you got your tillage machines going.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_01: Um uh on top of that, just driving down the road, if you live in town, you can see that the diesel on the local quick trip is over six dollars now and likely not going down anytime soon the way it looks.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, there's there's been a lot of talk about it.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_01: What are you hearing uh uh specifically around the diesel market, Mike?
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_02: Well, it's a record high.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_02: We're at about six and a half dollars on diesel now, average for the United States.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_02: And to make it more extreme, I I know some customers that visited California and they said diesel price was$9.99 at the pump, and they it they said that they couldn't show$10 because they didn't have enough digits on the pump to show$10.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_02: So it was just stuck there.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_02: So to let that sink in, diesel prices are pretty high in the United States.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_02: Now, the why I think is very important on why diesel is very high priced.
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_02: There's a couple big things.
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_02: The stage was set because the U.S.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_02: had red tape for a long time with refineries, and basically we haven't increased any production with refineries in the United States to a little bit lower.
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_02: So we didn't really take advantage of that aspect of it.
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, so the stage is set.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_02: Production's been pretty flat to a little bit lower on diesel, and now we're exporting about 25% of our product.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_02: So the stage is set to really get a tight situation stocks in the United States.
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_02: Now, what happened in the rest of the world is the Iran war and Russia and Ukraine.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_02: What we've been seeing now with Strait of Hormuz and Russia and Ukraine is that uh around 20% of the global refining capacity has been taken offline now.
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_02: So 20% of all global refinery capacity obviously creates a shortage because especially in just in time supply chain logistics in the world we live in today, 20%'s a pretty big number globally speaking.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_02: Um especially if you're looking at from some aspects of you're seeing immediate sharp supply chain uh disruptions as well, with like pipeline had to get shut down because of drone strikes, or all of a sudden we can't ship oil through this part of the world, or Russia can't send it to these people because of sanctions, they have to backdoor it.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_02: So, like when you start to run really tight and then things like that happen as well, it gets really, really tight.
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_02: So that's kind of the setup.
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_02: The big problem with all of this, it isn't demand, it's not uh the United States red tape, it's mainly the Russia situation because half of their refinering capacity now has been taken offline with the recent strikes.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_02: So that's the setup.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_02: Um, the why I should say is why we're having this happen.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_02: If what we see is short term and if it's fixed soon is probably not a problem, you won't feel it in your other cost of goods for living.
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_02: Right now, core CPI is at 2.4%, which is actually really low and trending lower.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_02: So that would suggest, as of recent history, that high diesel and fuel prices isn't making inflation worse in other aspects of your life because core CPI is everything, just not food and fuel.
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_02: Gotcha.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_02: So from that aspect, if we see that start to come back higher again in about a few months, usually within four months, uh, then we have a problem on our hands.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_02: The Fed raised rates on Wednesday.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_02: So that comes into this discussion as well.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_02: Do you start to enter a cycle of rate hikes because inflation's a problem?
• 16:49
  SPEAKER_02: Well, Fed chairman, smart man, he knows that if he raises rates, that's not gonna fix our diesel problem in the United States.
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_02: It's obviously much bigger than that.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_02: It only adds fuel to the fire, so to say.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_02: Diesel, if it stays this high for more than four months, we probably enter a recession in the United States anyway.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_02: So they need to fix it fast.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so we don't need to raise rates to slow down economic activity.
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_02: Diesel will take care of that anyways for us.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_02: So that's the thing.
• 17:14
  SPEAKER_02: Um for our producers, though, this matters on a couple things.
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_02: One, I brought up rates because we all borrow a lot of money to do what we love.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_02: And with that being the case, I'm not worried about uh further rate hikes going forward.
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_02: 5% uh is probably about it longer term, short term, we'll probably peak out around 4% here.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_02: So that's one thing.
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_02: Uh I just to put it in that perspective, because that's probably even bigger than what I spend at the pump every month, is what interest rates do.
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_02: The next part of this is how it impacts fuel on uh direct farm use and what to do about it, because I have people worried about running out of fuel.
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_02: Um, I wouldn't worry about that.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_02: I I think at the end of the day, if I pay enough, I'll be able to get diesel fuel on my farm.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, in the short term, it probably goes seven bucks uh on for road fuel.
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, I sure will be six bucks pretty soon on Dyde.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_02: I think it's about five and a half this week for a tanker load, is what I'm getting quoted.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_02: Um, that'll probably keep going up in the short term.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_02: Over the weekend, I heard it's supposed to be flat, but we'll see what it happens here.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_02: Um that outlook going forward, normally, if you're not doing well by middle of September, they said that was enough time lost that you're gonna lose midterms.
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_02: November 3rd is midterms.
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_02: Now, with immediate reaction type environment that we live in today with social media and and uh and credit card spending the way it is, basically by the middle of October, if they can have the diesel situation headed south, if they can get uh the stock market in a healthy direction uh north, that they probably still have a chance to do okay for Republicans in the midterms.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_02: So they've got a a little bit of time to figure some things out to help ease diesel prices here for midterms.
• 18:59
  SPEAKER_02: But if they don't, I think the Republicans are gonna get killed, and that's a problem for them in the midterms.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_02: So they'll want to try to fix that in the short term.
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_02: But uh how long this can last, it's obviously uh a situation that if the Iran war continues, if Russia war continues, that 20% production offline is gonna have a problem down the road that leads to probably pretty catastrophic economic things later on.
• 19:22
  SPEAKER_02: And I don't think the the government would willingly want to do that with a war that they've willingly put us in.
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_02: So uh I think uh this is gonna be a short-term deal, and uh we're all gonna be very excited to see diesel prices go back down again, but it should happen here pretty soon.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I I can appreciate your your thought, and I would uh echo your statement.
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_01: I hope it's a short-term deal.
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_01: Um, all the problems you talked about are not short-term fixes, uh, which makes me scratch my head a little bit.
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_01: And so now you're you're dependent on the government to figure out some sort of policy regulation or to sprint some more money to help make a problem go away, or just sounds about right in our in our business.
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, kick the can down the road and let somebody else worry about it.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_01: Um, because you're right, even if prices start going down relatively quickly, they've been high enough where all those classic fuel surcharges are going to show up on a lot of shipping invoices and uh everything.
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_01: And uh the average consumer, of course, isn't driving diesel vehicles, but of course, every consumable thing they buy comes in on a diesel vehicle, so that's where they'll that's why I'm keeping an eye on the core CPI.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_01: Yep, yep.
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_01: Excellent uh talking point there, Mike.
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I did want to mention two things since uh I get to talk crop insurance when I'm on the podcast.
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_01: Uh crop insurance MCO coverage.
• 20:39
  SPEAKER_01: We did set the price.
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_01: We got a uh a price of$525 on dece 27 uh corn and$12.33 on 27 soybeans.
• 20:50
  SPEAKER_01: Remember, MCO coverage is a county-based uh margin coverage for corn and soybeans.
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_01: It is also available on spring wheat, so I shouldn't uh uh forget that$764 is our spring wheat price.
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_01: Uh but it's only from 90 to 95 percent to include some input price, those 27 prices.
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, it is, if you are looking to get started with an insurance coverage out there, it is an option for you.
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_01: We should all maybe think about it.
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_01: Personally, I think I'd rather keep my options open uh for ECO coverage this spring and look at some of the optional coverages you can add with that, but uh always something good to think about and look at because you have to buy MCO by September 30th.
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_01: So we don't have very long to consider that.
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_01: And every farmer, uh, they did release this week that the ARC PLC signup for 2026 is now uh open.
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_01: Uh so you can go in and sign up for that election.
• 21:45
  SPEAKER_01: Uh our blanket recommendation for our average producer is going to be Arc County based on where prices are currently.
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_01: Uh PLC is not going to pay again.
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_01: This will be for 2026.
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_01: The check you're going to get in October will be from 2025.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_01: So, with that, Mike, what do we got going this weekend?
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_01: Anything exciting?
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_02: I'm going to the SCSU football game, going to the little pipestone tailgate there.
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, that'll be fun time.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_02: So hopefully we can beat the penguins, I believe.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, the conference uh start game start uh this week against Youngstown State.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_01: There'll be quite a few of us walking around in the Jack's game here this weekend.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_01: Uh so if you see us, say hi.
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_01: Otherwise, Mike, thanks for joining the Professional Egg Podcast.
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you.