Latest / Financial Survival Network / The Truth Behind Gold’s Wild Swings - Axel Merk #6341

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The Truth Behind Gold’s Wild Swings - Axel Merk #6341 · Financial Survival Network

0:00
Speaker 1: Well, keep in mind that neither silver nor gold actually changes.
0:03
Speaker 1: It's our perception of the metal that changes. It's the
0:06
Speaker 1: price that changes. I sometimes joke that the goal of
0:11
Speaker 1: gold and silver is to cause maximum frustration, with silvia
0:14
Speaker 1: being far better at it than gold.
0:16
Speaker 2: You're listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, where you
0:20
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0:43
Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
0:47
Speaker 3: Survival Network. I'm your host, Kerry Lutz, and today with
0:51
Speaker 3: us is Axel merk Axel been in this space a
0:55
Speaker 3: long time. You've been pretty much spot off about what
1:01
Speaker 3: was going to happen today. It's October twenty first, twenty
1:06
Speaker 3: twenty five. We're seeing a huge, huge raid. I would
1:10
Speaker 3: like some might call it a raid. Others would say
1:13
Speaker 3: it's profit taking. Gold is down two hundred and thirteen
1:16
Speaker 3: dollars the ounce, Silver down nearly three and a half
1:20
Speaker 3: dollars the ounce. What exactly is going on?
1:23
Speaker 1: Here, hey, Kerry, and by the time your listeners are
1:26
Speaker 1: watching this, who knows where we're going to be. It's
1:29
Speaker 1: certainly a very exciting time to talk and to what's
1:35
Speaker 1: going on where we are. I think last time we talked,
1:39
Speaker 1: I may have said that there are different types of
1:43
Speaker 1: players in the precious metals market, and I grouped them
1:47
Speaker 1: into the diversifying investor, into the gold bug, or the
1:50
Speaker 1: person concerned about the purchasing power. You have the central banks,
1:54
Speaker 1: you have the speculator, and the speculator obviously has come
2:04
Speaker 1: in in recent months. They were somewhat absent pursuing meme stocks,
2:09
Speaker 1: cryptocurrency investments and others spack investments. Central banks have been
2:15
Speaker 1: more active. What's noteworthy about the trend we've had and
2:19
Speaker 1: I gather you have different guests give different answers, but
2:22
Speaker 1: we have not seen a retail frenzy on the way up.
2:27
Speaker 1: This is notably absent and also obviously as any but
2:31
Speaker 1: you will follow the market for well knows. When the
2:33
Speaker 1: price of gold shoots higher, often it's in the context
2:36
Speaker 1: of traditional equities plunging, and that also there have been
2:41
Speaker 1: some hiccups in the markets. Maybe that hasn't happened but
2:45
Speaker 1: when we talk to coin dealers, for example, they getting
2:48
Speaker 1: new inventory from retail selling their gold to them. When
2:52
Speaker 1: we talk to wholesalers, they're not selling anything because the
2:56
Speaker 1: coin dealers have enough inventory. So that's not a sign
2:58
Speaker 1: of a retail frenzy. But yes, the speculators are the
3:02
Speaker 1: what's happening today is we talk without getting too technical. Actually,
3:07
Speaker 1: let me get very technical.
3:09
Speaker 3: Yeah, you get technical audience there.
3:12
Speaker 1: And I know you love conspiracy theories, so let me
3:15
Speaker 1: give you one here. Maybe the deala gamma in the
3:19
Speaker 1: options market is ten times what it usually is, and
3:22
Speaker 1: so that sounds as fancy as it is. Basically, you
3:26
Speaker 1: have market makers in the options market that are trying
3:31
Speaker 1: to make a living and they have to. They're not
3:33
Speaker 1: they're not speculators that they're they're balancing their books. And
3:36
Speaker 1: there are situations when that's what it means when the
3:40
Speaker 1: dealer gamma is high, when anything that happens in the
3:44
Speaker 1: market is exacerbated by the dealers trying to to to
3:48
Speaker 1: hedge their book and so when the move goes up,
3:51
Speaker 1: they piling the upside. When the moves go down, they
3:54
Speaker 1: pilon a downside. And that's why that's a big reason
3:57
Speaker 1: why we've had these major moves now and up, down
4:01
Speaker 1: and up and currently down again. And when that happens,
4:05
Speaker 1: it is it is really the dealers in the in
4:07
Speaker 1: the derivatives markets just trying to keep their books in balance.
4:12
Speaker 1: And and so that is the the noise, the icing
4:16
Speaker 1: on the cake on top of it, so to speak.
4:18
Speaker 1: Obviously the other reasons why the price of goals has
4:20
Speaker 1: moved higher for quite some time. But in this this
4:24
Speaker 1: amazing volatility we're experiencing as we speak, it is the
4:29
Speaker 1: the dealers in the options market that are busy.
4:33
Speaker 3: Okay, so we got a gamma squeeze I think they
4:36
Speaker 3: call it. And basically uh Wick rule we both know
4:43
Speaker 3: has said that the eventually these parties that are executing
4:49
Speaker 3: these very complicated edges in the silver market are going
4:53
Speaker 3: to have a religious experience and they are going to
4:56
Speaker 3: be annihilated. Are we getting to that point now or
5:00
Speaker 3: is it exagination?
5:02
Speaker 1: Well, yes and no. The pushback I give is the
5:08
Speaker 1: precious metals investor always thinks they're special. This sort of
5:13
Speaker 1: stuff happens in any market where there's a derivative market. Now,
5:17
Speaker 1: clearly because there's a physical market, things get more interesting
5:22
Speaker 1: and and and say, we know that there was a
5:25
Speaker 1: flight of precious metals into the US in the springtime
5:29
Speaker 1: because there was a fear there might be tariffs. They've
5:33
Speaker 1: been stories, not the stories, but London gold was shipped
5:37
Speaker 1: to Switzerland being refined to the US. Huge silver shipments
5:42
Speaker 1: to the US. Keep in mind that that silver has
5:47
Speaker 1: like a fraction of the density of gold and in
5:50
Speaker 1: pre value here and and so when when you have
5:53
Speaker 1: the same dollar amount of silver ship these are the
5:56
Speaker 1: big logistical efforts. And so when you when you talk
5:59
Speaker 1: to the vault, they are they need to work for
6:04
Speaker 1: the money right now, shipping the stuff around right and
6:07
Speaker 1: and the gold and the silvera coming back into London
6:10
Speaker 1: right now, where where historically there's the hop of liquidity.
6:15
Speaker 1: And then yes, you have of course the rivatives on
6:17
Speaker 1: top of that that exacerbates some of these moves. But
6:20
Speaker 1: we are we are seeing some astounding things happening in
6:26
Speaker 1: the markets. But it mostly means that the market is
6:29
Speaker 1: working because it's a we. Yes, we may not like
6:33
Speaker 1: these derivative players, but the on integral part of the market,
6:37
Speaker 1: and there is an underlying physical that we sometimes tend
6:40
Speaker 1: to forget. When you see the price of gold coded,
6:43
Speaker 1: it's that of a London bar in London, and it
6:46
Speaker 1: is noteworthy if the price in the rest of the
6:49
Speaker 1: world is different, that shows logistical squeezes and temporary supplying
6:52
Speaker 1: demand imbalances. But in the environment in right now, we've
6:58
Speaker 1: obviously had had a tremendous move higher and currently volatility
7:05
Speaker 1: has shown to be not just on the upside but
7:08
Speaker 1: the downside.
7:09
Speaker 3: All right, So the volatility, so are we imagining these
7:13
Speaker 3: rates happening? Is the price being manipulated by other players?
7:20
Speaker 3: What exactly is happening here?
7:22
Speaker 1: Well, the reason you can look at these things from
7:24
Speaker 1: any prism you like. The reason I don't like the
7:27
Speaker 1: conspiracy angle in general, and I know you're in a
7:31
Speaker 1: different camp, but the reason I don't like that is
7:33
Speaker 1: because that assumes that if you only get rid of
7:36
Speaker 1: the bad apples, everything would be dandy. And I'm actually
7:40
Speaker 1: far more pessimistic. I am saying, is the dynamics of
7:43
Speaker 1: the system that drives into where we are or not.
7:46
Speaker 1: Whether you label these things conspiracies or not is in
7:49
Speaker 1: my view secondary to me. It's just no, because the
7:52
Speaker 1: conspiracy angle suggests that it plays into the thing that
7:57
Speaker 1: there's an end game, there's a reset, there is this
7:59
Speaker 1: or that, and my view is there's always a tomorrow,
8:03
Speaker 1: and say society adjusts, regulators adjust, and by the way,
8:08
Speaker 1: they don't play a fair game. They will change the
8:10
Speaker 1: rules of the game along the way if they don't
8:12
Speaker 1: like what they see and say, we have moved further
8:15
Speaker 1: and further away from a gold standard over the last
8:17
Speaker 1: hundred years. We'll just continue on that path. And it's
8:22
Speaker 1: going to be a charpy road. And yes, we are
8:26
Speaker 1: currently experiencing an interesting episode in that. But keep in
8:31
Speaker 1: mind that we've talked those about the debasement trade, right
8:36
Speaker 1: this is if this is the debasement trade, it's the
8:39
Speaker 1: very early innings of that, because we have not seen
8:43
Speaker 1: fundamental stress in many of these markets. Yes, other central
8:47
Speaker 1: banks are diversifying, but those things are happening on the margin.
8:51
Speaker 1: And gold is a disproportionate beneficiary because that market isn't
8:55
Speaker 1: so huge. But it is not as if confidence has
8:59
Speaker 1: been lost in the dot because if so, you would
9:03
Speaker 1: see very different directions in the treasury markets. But what
9:06
Speaker 1: we do see is that when you have and we've
9:09
Speaker 1: talked about that, when you have tariffs, you're not not
9:14
Speaker 1: just throwing a wrench into the flow of goods you're flowing,
9:18
Speaker 1: you're throwing a wrench into the flow of money of cash,
9:23
Speaker 1: and that makes the financing of deficits in the US
9:27
Speaker 1: more expensive. That creates more pressure on the Federal Reserve
9:31
Speaker 1: to keep rate slow. And so the sort of things
9:34
Speaker 1: we see is is kind of a preview of what
9:39
Speaker 1: we might be seeing if or when we see a
9:42
Speaker 1: more disorderly conduct. But for the time being as well,
9:45
Speaker 1: I tell those things are it's actually quite quite orderly.
9:48
Speaker 3: And is there a shortage of SOB or is this
9:51
Speaker 3: imaginary wish for thinking? Uh, propaganda, manipulation, call it what
9:59
Speaker 3: you like. Is there real shortage?
10:01
Speaker 1: There is this magic thing that every gold and silver
10:05
Speaker 1: investor should be away of. It's called the price. When
10:09
Speaker 1: there is no silver, the price is going to be
10:12
Speaker 1: higher when, as I mentioned earlier, right, the price you
10:16
Speaker 1: see quoded. Let me focus on on gold. Here is
10:19
Speaker 1: the price of gold of a London bar in London,
10:23
Speaker 1: and if there were no gold, the price would be
10:26
Speaker 1: infinitely higher if somebody wants to get a bar there.
10:29
Speaker 1: And so it's a and you can look at stress
10:33
Speaker 1: into the system if you see it differential pricing in
10:36
Speaker 1: different locations right. You can see those sort of things,
10:39
Speaker 1: or you can see shortages if you don't need to
10:43
Speaker 1: call up your volt manager, if you don't have a
10:46
Speaker 1: personal volt manager, but you can look at the spreads
10:49
Speaker 1: in the physical ETFs. The market makers are hedging themselves,
10:55
Speaker 1: and if they're unable to hedge themselves, that means there
10:58
Speaker 1: is stress in the market. Even one of the things
11:01
Speaker 1: that happened in the springtime when there was the flight
11:04
Speaker 1: of gold from London to the US, the big volume banks,
11:09
Speaker 1: they had some of their gold stored with a Bank
11:12
Speaker 1: of England, and the Bank of England is a government
11:15
Speaker 1: bureaucracy with an antiquated storage system. Vaulting gold is actually
11:21
Speaker 1: more complicated than you might imagine. A modern vault has
11:25
Speaker 1: all of the client's vault on a palette or a
11:27
Speaker 1: series of palets. What the Bank of England historically does
11:31
Speaker 1: is they have a bunch of gold and if gold
11:34
Speaker 1: is sold from party A to party B, they enter
11:36
Speaker 1: it in their computer, which means but they don't move
11:39
Speaker 1: the gold, which means your gold could be spread across
11:44
Speaker 1: tons of different palets, and so when you need to
11:47
Speaker 1: get gold out in volume quickly, they're just not capable
11:50
Speaker 1: of doing it, and so the vaults in London were
11:54
Speaker 1: concerned that yes they have the gold, but they might
11:57
Speaker 1: not be able to get it in time. Now was
12:00
Speaker 1: some stress, but the stress never translated into increased spreads
12:04
Speaker 1: in the market. You would have seen it that buying
12:07
Speaker 1: and selling gold costs a very different amount if that
12:10
Speaker 1: stress were to have been realized. And so while it
12:14
Speaker 1: is a real market, and then you remember the negative
12:17
Speaker 1: costs in the price of oil when the storage costs
12:20
Speaker 1: work were high. Right, So this fine print does matter.
12:24
Speaker 1: But yes, there is always at the right price, there
12:28
Speaker 1: is always the metal available, and if and doubt requests delivery, right,
12:34
Speaker 1: and so if you don't think there is the pressures
12:37
Speaker 1: medal available, then I have it sent to your home
12:40
Speaker 1: and you'll see whether you get it. Type of thing, right,
12:42
Speaker 1: But that's the sort of thing that kind of caused
12:44
Speaker 1: exacerbate price links.
12:46
Speaker 3: So interestingly enough, you know silver broke that magical fifty
12:51
Speaker 3: dollars resistance point almost fifty years forty five years in
12:56
Speaker 3: the making to break that, and if you wanted to
13:00
Speaker 3: get technical, you could say it was a cup with
13:02
Speaker 3: a handle fifty year pattern. So it was coiled up
13:07
Speaker 3: like a spring. Why was the price of silver. Why
13:12
Speaker 3: did it make a new high when every other commodity
13:15
Speaker 3: known to man during our forty five year timespan was
13:19
Speaker 3: making new highs. Silver was the only one axle in
13:22
Speaker 3: forty five years never made a new high. Is that
13:25
Speaker 3: conspiracy talk? Or is that is that natural market behavior?
13:30
Speaker 3: When sugar, when you know, you name it, everything, wheat, soybean,
13:39
Speaker 3: everything made do highs. But silver?
13:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, keep in mind that neither silver nor gold
13:44
Speaker 1: actually changes. It's our perception of the metal that changes.
13:48
Speaker 1: Is the price that changes. I sometimes joke that the
13:52
Speaker 1: goal of gold and silver is to cause maximum frustration,
13:55
Speaker 1: with silver being far better at it than gold. Even
13:58
Speaker 1: and clear, we've had some amazing moves in the early eighties, right,
14:04
Speaker 1: and it's taken till now to get to it. The
14:07
Speaker 1: key difference between gold and silver is, of course, that
14:10
Speaker 1: silver has significant industrial use. Indeed, you probably have stories
14:14
Speaker 1: that the solar panels, the cost of silver is now
14:18
Speaker 1: one of the biggest components, and so you can have
14:22
Speaker 1: real shortages when when everybody is trying to to to
14:25
Speaker 1: make solar panels and whatnot, it's say, why we haven't
14:30
Speaker 1: reached a new high before. It's always fun to play
14:34
Speaker 1: kind of general in hindsight and and give arguments to
14:37
Speaker 1: these things. Clearly, we we had a short squeeze in
14:40
Speaker 1: the early eighties that was quite phenomenal. Right. And and
14:44
Speaker 1: because these markets are not as liquid as it appears
14:48
Speaker 1: to be, because they can push things, buy things with
14:51
Speaker 1: a push off a button, you can have outsized moves.
14:55
Speaker 1: That is that is part of the markets.
14:57
Speaker 3: Right You.
14:57
Speaker 1: You don't see that in the financial market much Also,
15:01
Speaker 1: increasing quality of grain, the quantity of grain is in
15:04
Speaker 1: many ways much easier than increasing the quantity of silver.
15:09
Speaker 1: The I'm not going to say there was no conspiracy.
15:11
Speaker 1: I'm not going to say there was conspiracy. Clearly that
15:13
Speaker 1: the Hunt brothers had as a goal to corner the market.
15:16
Speaker 1: So they're the conspiracy if you want to have one, right,
15:20
Speaker 1: But I think we're giving both policy makers and the
15:24
Speaker 1: big banks too much credit. If if one asserts that
15:30
Speaker 1: their goal in live is to manipulate prices, they they
15:35
Speaker 1: run a hedgebook. They are not in the they're not
15:40
Speaker 1: in the business of of managing price A or B.
15:44
Speaker 1: If you talk to far folks at the Federal Reserve,
15:48
Speaker 1: they don't understand gold very very different from a hundred
15:52
Speaker 1: years ago. If you talk to to CEOs of banks,
15:58
Speaker 1: they don't, they don't some of them don't know how
16:03
Speaker 1: much gold their own bank calls. Right, and and the
16:07
Speaker 1: the I once talked to the head of global commodities
16:12
Speaker 1: of a major international bank. He and this was fifteen
16:16
Speaker 1: twenty years and fifteen years ago or so went, yeah,
16:20
Speaker 1: twenty years ago. May no, fifteen years ago. He was
16:23
Speaker 1: not aware that they could not deal in physical gold, right,
16:27
Speaker 1: the head of global commodities at a major bank. I'm
16:31
Speaker 1: not going to name them, but it's that tells you
16:35
Speaker 1: how how little they know. This guy knew the derivative market, right,
16:38
Speaker 1: but he wasn't aware that their own bank cannot facilitate
16:42
Speaker 1: physical gold anything, and and and so, and then you
16:45
Speaker 1: talk to the folks on the physical side, and they
16:50
Speaker 1: are they're really they they have the physical business. And
16:52
Speaker 1: then of course there's there's a lot that they provide
16:55
Speaker 1: in services as well, where they are constrained by by
16:59
Speaker 1: what the bank as if they engage in some other
17:02
Speaker 1: activities with some of the gold. But again they're not
17:06
Speaker 1: in the speculation business. And and the big banks they
17:11
Speaker 1: they have as a business a hedging function and so, yes,
17:15
Speaker 1: that might impact the price of gold or silver. Absolutely,
17:18
Speaker 1: that can happen. But it is not because they they
17:22
Speaker 1: are conspiracy theories. It's just because they're running their business
17:25
Speaker 1: based on based on their their their client demand.
17:29
Speaker 3: Okay, so, but these humongous short positions that never seem
17:34
Speaker 3: to go down and then coincidental markets get slammed right
17:41
Speaker 3: before options expiration. Isn't that indicative of a little game
17:46
Speaker 3: playing there?
17:47
Speaker 1: Well, of course it's game plan. But to me, that's
17:50
Speaker 1: not the same as conspiracy theory. So I think we
17:52
Speaker 1: might be just using different words. But yeah, there are
17:55
Speaker 1: plenty of speculators there, and as we see, right, and
17:58
Speaker 1: that's why I expanded earlier on the on the options market,
18:01
Speaker 1: on the on the on the dealer, Gama the dealer,
18:06
Speaker 1: they are trying to make a living, right and and
18:09
Speaker 1: say they are incentivized to hedge their book. And yes,
18:13
Speaker 1: it's a quote unquote game. And if you don't know
18:16
Speaker 1: how to play that game, if you are an innocent
18:18
Speaker 1: retail investor that plays that and I discourage anybody to
18:22
Speaker 1: play these volatile markets, in the rods markets in particular,
18:27
Speaker 1: they'll they'll get wiped out. If they use leverage, they'll
18:30
Speaker 1: lose money. And so in that sense, absolutely it's a game,
18:34
Speaker 1: but it is not a government orchestrated conspiracy where they're
18:37
Speaker 1: trying to kind of mess with you. It's it's just
18:40
Speaker 1: that these derivers markets attract speculators, they attract hedges, they
18:44
Speaker 1: attract folks doing arbitrage and whatnot. And if you are
18:48
Speaker 1: somebody who just wants to join own a coin of
18:51
Speaker 1: gold or silver, you look at it and scratch your head,
18:54
Speaker 1: what the heck are these guys doing?
18:56
Speaker 3: Right?
18:56
Speaker 1: I mean, as a just as a business, we own
19:00
Speaker 1: physical gold, right, we don't do any derivatives, we don't
19:04
Speaker 1: do any lending and so forth. But I do think
19:06
Speaker 1: it's helpful to understand what's happening in these markets to
19:11
Speaker 1: to to also try to keep a cool head when
19:14
Speaker 1: the volatility does increase. One of the advantages of a
19:17
Speaker 1: physical coin is that you are not tempted to trade
19:20
Speaker 1: it because you can't just push a button to buy
19:22
Speaker 1: and sell. That that provides the sort of restraint that
19:26
Speaker 1: I think for most investors is helpful. Obviously, if you're
19:29
Speaker 1: a day trader who thinks you can make money on
19:32
Speaker 1: this stuff, be my guest and then go for it.
19:36
Speaker 3: That's your own risk. But we've seen JP Morgan, We've
19:40
Speaker 3: seen numerous players in silver get snagged by the regulators,
19:45
Speaker 3: pay huge fines and promise to never never beat their
19:50
Speaker 3: wives again.
19:50
Speaker 1: Right, and they they will never do that again, now
19:54
Speaker 1: if they, I mean, if there's money to be made,
19:56
Speaker 1: you'll have some bad apples, of course. I mean, that's
19:59
Speaker 1: say the I picked up I picked up a copy
20:03
Speaker 1: of Moneyball, Mike Lewis's. Yes, well you know what the
20:08
Speaker 1: subtitle is. I don't have it here in front of
20:11
Speaker 1: me right now, but it says something like how to
20:15
Speaker 1: win the Unfair Game, right and and and so it's
20:19
Speaker 1: it's ay, these there are players in the market that
20:25
Speaker 1: are trying to game the system. And and yes, if
20:30
Speaker 1: they are in the position of power, then then clearly
20:34
Speaker 1: they might have a leg up of others. What I'm
20:38
Speaker 1: the only reason I'm pushing back against the conspiracy theory
20:40
Speaker 1: is that it's part of life. Get on with it, right,
20:44
Speaker 1: You've got to figure out what you want to do
20:47
Speaker 1: with your investments. And if the market doesn't go your way,
20:51
Speaker 1: blaming others for it is not going to help you, right,
20:53
Speaker 1: And that's what there is. That's that's really part of
20:56
Speaker 1: the reason why why I do the pushback. I'm not
20:59
Speaker 1: arguing that they are bat layers, and they are not
21:01
Speaker 1: arguing that some people don't want to do something. But
21:04
Speaker 1: especially the precious metals market, there's a lot of constituents
21:08
Speaker 1: that are not for big government. So don't expect government
21:11
Speaker 1: to help you with any of this stuff. That's really
21:13
Speaker 1: my message to that. That's on your own and figure
21:17
Speaker 1: out how you want to survive these markets. Right, You're
21:20
Speaker 1: in a survival network, so don't count on the government
21:23
Speaker 1: building you out. You've got to figure out yourself how
21:26
Speaker 1: you're going to deal in the Streacher's world. That's really
21:29
Speaker 1: my message in all of this.
21:31
Speaker 3: I couldn't agree with you more. And conspiracies kind is irrelevant,
21:36
Speaker 3: I think, is what you're saying, because it is the
21:39
Speaker 3: way it is. That's the market we're participating in. You're
21:43
Speaker 3: participating in everyone is, And whether there's manipulation or not
21:50
Speaker 3: is besides the point, right, because.
21:54
Speaker 1: It's there.
21:55
Speaker 3: It's the backshop manipulation in every market. It's just interesting
22:00
Speaker 3: that this market is so emotional and that people are
22:05
Speaker 3: so they get really emotional about metals, Like.
22:09
Speaker 1: Is that is that because gold is so simple? Right?
22:12
Speaker 1: Yet we have I mean, I think part of it
22:14
Speaker 1: is that gold doesn't have counterparty risk, and so oh
22:18
Speaker 1: those reasons, many love it, except you introduce counterparty risk
22:25
Speaker 1: the moment you touch it, right, because you risk losing
22:28
Speaker 1: it or whatever it might be. And so that creates
22:32
Speaker 1: as internal tension, and I think is at the core
22:35
Speaker 1: of a lot of the emotion that comes with it.
22:38
Speaker 3: Yeah. No, I mean it's like to cry about conspiracy
22:43
Speaker 3: theories is like crying about the income tax. You know,
22:47
Speaker 3: it's pointless, it gets you nothing. You can observe it,
22:52
Speaker 3: and all of us, in our own minds discount what
22:56
Speaker 3: those bad players are doing. By the way, the name
22:59
Speaker 3: of the book was Moneyball, The Art of Winning an
23:03
Speaker 3: Unfair Game. You could call it silver silver investing, you
23:07
Speaker 3: could call it gold investing. You could just say investing
23:12
Speaker 3: the art of winning an unfair game. Because everything is
23:15
Speaker 3: rigged here. So I think it's more important to know
23:19
Speaker 3: that the riggings happening, but don't blame it for your
23:23
Speaker 3: eventual gain or loss. Use it to your advantage. Right,
23:27
Speaker 3: It's like right, institutions on Wall Street, they're all about
23:32
Speaker 3: quarterly earnings. They're all about day to day trades, you know,
23:37
Speaker 3: trading short term game. But if you're a long term
23:40
Speaker 3: investor in the right stocks, you kill them every time
23:45
Speaker 3: because you're not playing their game. How do you do
23:48
Speaker 3: that with medals?
23:50
Speaker 1: Now, you've got to if you use the word game right,
23:53
Speaker 1: you've got to figure out what your own game is.
23:55
Speaker 1: And I'm my speech is regulated, so I can't give
23:58
Speaker 1: investment advice. My advice is you don't need to have
24:01
Speaker 1: a great plan, but have a plan. You got to
24:04
Speaker 1: have and you've got to have some system, and buy
24:08
Speaker 1: and hold is as good a plan as many the
24:13
Speaker 1: one other item, though, I just like to mention that
24:16
Speaker 1: the context of the current volatility is most investors have
24:20
Speaker 1: a certain risk profile, and you can't easily quantify that
24:26
Speaker 1: standard deviation and all that stuff. It doesn't really make
24:28
Speaker 1: any sense. But one yardstick, especially for the retail investor,
24:34
Speaker 1: I think, is that if you get nervous about the
24:36
Speaker 1: holdings you have, if you can't sleep well at night
24:39
Speaker 1: because of the investors you have, you might be over invested.
24:43
Speaker 1: And the volatility that we see is of course quite
24:45
Speaker 1: elevated right now. I've been cautioning on the way up
24:48
Speaker 1: that yes, this volatility can also happen on the way down,
24:51
Speaker 1: right when something appreciates and now we appreciate it. But
24:57
Speaker 1: let's keep in mind that that portion of the PORTFOLI
25:00
Speaker 1: if it outperforms other portions, is taking on a bigger shale, right,
25:04
Speaker 1: And then if that is that end, if that portion
25:07
Speaker 1: is more volatile than the rest of the portfolio, it
25:09
Speaker 1: means your overall portfolio is more volatile. I think people
25:12
Speaker 1: need to be cognizant of that. And and say and
25:15
Speaker 1: and if if that's more volatility that or more risks
25:18
Speaker 1: that people are comfortable with, it's all right to take
25:21
Speaker 1: some chips off the table, even if you think that's that.
25:25
Speaker 1: Ultimately those prices will go higher, because if you have
25:29
Speaker 1: more risks that you can stomach, then you will be
25:32
Speaker 1: selling at the wrong spot at the wrong time.
25:35
Speaker 3: And it's a ay.
25:36
Speaker 1: And I may have mentioned as.
25:37
Speaker 3: A story Investing Life Axel.
25:42
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, yes, I mean I think I mentioned your program.
25:45
Speaker 1: And let's spring of two thousand and nine, people said, oh,
25:47
Speaker 1: you got to double down on stocks, and people say
25:50
Speaker 1: that just about every day. But if you have lost,
25:53
Speaker 1: if you didn't rebalance on the way up, lost half
25:56
Speaker 1: of your net worth and the financial crisis, going even
25:59
Speaker 1: more into stocks, it's just an unprudent exposure. You've got
26:03
Speaker 1: to take the prudent steps on the right kind. Now,
26:06
Speaker 1: if you're somebody who who has plenty of other income
26:10
Speaker 1: and whatnot, and and and happen to like pressures metals,
26:12
Speaker 1: by all means, stay with it.
26:15
Speaker 3: Right.
26:16
Speaker 1: I'm not telling people that they have to sell out
26:18
Speaker 1: as the as the price is going up, but people
26:20
Speaker 1: do need to do a gut check in the health
26:23
Speaker 1: check that they're okay with the volatility that we have.
26:26
Speaker 1: And by the way, when retail sales at in when
26:30
Speaker 1: the market goes down, it's called retail's panicking. When professional
26:34
Speaker 1: investors do exactly the same thing, they do risk management
26:38
Speaker 1: and and and say it's say it's they They they
26:45
Speaker 1: want to sound smart because they get paid for what
26:47
Speaker 1: they do, but then they are just as emotional animals
26:50
Speaker 1: as anybody else.
26:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's why the best traders are unemotional. Right, Maybe
26:56
Speaker 3: that's why algorithms are so good because they're unemotional. Yes,
27:01
Speaker 3: so all right, so one piece of file advice. Uh,
27:05
Speaker 3: as far as what's happening to metals prices right now,
27:10
Speaker 3: what do you tell people just in general, no investment advice,
27:14
Speaker 3: but psychologically, how you weather the storm.
27:18
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, we're still substantially higher than than just
27:22
Speaker 1: a few weeks ago, even days ago. I suppose the
27:27
Speaker 1: added volatility is insignificant, part due to the fact that
27:30
Speaker 1: speculators are back. And if you're old enough, and many
27:34
Speaker 1: gold investors are, remember the speculators. They were absent for
27:38
Speaker 1: several years because there were SPACs, meme stocks and other things.
27:43
Speaker 1: But in recent weeks crypto hasn't done so well. Meme
27:46
Speaker 1: starks are I'm doing so great the max evens I'm
27:48
Speaker 1: not double aing every week. But gold has been going higher.
27:52
Speaker 1: And this, this cohort of not so loyal investors has
27:56
Speaker 1: come back into the precious metalist market, and so I
27:59
Speaker 1: would expect volatility to stick around for a while and
28:03
Speaker 1: just run has to be cognizant of that, right, And
28:08
Speaker 1: this is gold on silver investing is not a one
28:12
Speaker 1: way street. You've got to have a good stomach for it.
28:14
Speaker 1: And of course it feels much better when it goes
28:17
Speaker 1: up in a straight line. But that's as we can
28:19
Speaker 1: see as we talk. It's not happening every day.
28:21
Speaker 3: As Benjamin Graham once said, the tree does not grow
28:24
Speaker 3: to the sky. And when you do see parabolic moves,
28:29
Speaker 3: then inevitably you're going to see a parabolic move downward
28:32
Speaker 3: when it goes up, and vice versa. Axel, Where do
28:36
Speaker 3: we find you? How do we connect with you on
28:38
Speaker 3: the web?
28:39
Speaker 1: Best place Marcinvestments dot com is the website we have
28:43
Speaker 1: exchange treaded products in physical gold. We do have a
28:47
Speaker 1: closed and fund in the gold mining space. We haven't
28:50
Speaker 1: touched on that. I can't talk about the products here,
28:53
Speaker 1: but come to our website. We manage over three billion
28:56
Speaker 1: in golden gold mining. We have a free newsletter on
28:59
Speaker 1: that website, and then you can find me on social
29:02
Speaker 1: media at Axel Mark is my Twitter handled and I
29:07
Speaker 1: can't talk specific stocks, but I will give plenty of
29:11
Speaker 1: opinions about what's happening in the market.
29:13
Speaker 3: All right, Well you know what they say about opinions.
29:16
Speaker 3: Axel appreciate you coming on. Any questions comments, shoot me
29:19
Speaker 3: an email KL at Carrie LUTs dot com and make
29:23
Speaker 3: sure you visit the site Carrie LUTs dot com. That's
29:27
Speaker 3: the easiest place. Financial Survival Network dot com. It'll all
29:30
Speaker 3: take in my substock. That's the new home of the FSN.
29:34
Speaker 3: A lot of you, thousands of you have found us there.
29:37
Speaker 3: Please keep visiting Axel. We'll talk to you against Sue.
29:40
Speaker 3: We won't let as much time go by again. I
29:42
Speaker 3: promise be well.
29:44
Speaker 1: My pleasure.
29:44
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your
29:49
Speaker 2: solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
29:53
Speaker 2: Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than
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30:04
Speaker 1: CRUs